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A's/Indians MLB Best Bets Sunday 7/20/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's how I'm gonna start off this show.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four that I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my bruins hat Man. I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch hape. Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: sewed back with you better off dead.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Sunday, July twentieth.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I always say that as a question because who even
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: knows man, Nobody ever knows what day it is.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I especially do not know.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I'll be went one on one on the show yesterday
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: with the two first five inning unders. The first one
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: one Red Sox Cubs Emonaga had a really good start
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: in that one. My Red Sox not doing well against
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: some of these better teams in the league. Here Bao
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: was actually good. I mean he was good enough to
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: get us through that. It was three nothing into the
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: fifth inning, so a little bit on the edge, but
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: not really because we had the under five and that one,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: so I was like, all right, I think this one's
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: gonna get there. The other one did not get there
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: is we got blown up by both. Freddie Perrault I
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: walked a surprising amount of guys in the game, even
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: though he's not really a guy that like keeps a
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: clean sheet as far as walks are concerned. But he
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: was just not good yesterday. And Emmett Sheen only made
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: it three innings. He got blown up as well. He
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: did not have a good game either, so the Milwaukee
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: and Dodgers first five under did not happen. I'm keeping
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: it very short today, very select. I'm gonna have one
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: play today, and it's a full game side that I
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: think is the best play on the board today, and
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: that is the only thing I'm gonna give out as
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: a play today.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Tommy, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, let's go.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Oh, we can get right into it, man, So let's
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: uh trying to get my Yeah, here we go. Let's go, baby,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get right into the rundown here. Start to
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: talk about Major League Baseball here, all right. So we
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: have afternoon games today because it is Sunday, so teams
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: are gonna have to It's getaway day, so teams are
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be traveling and whatever is starting new series in
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: some cases. First game up is gonna be in a
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: couple hours at noon Eastern San Francisco at Toronto. San
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Francisco is trying to avoid the sweep here now. In Toronto,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I believe is playing the Yankees next, so it is
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a look ahead spot for Toronto.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: So my first instinct here is I think San Francisco
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: probably should come with a little bit of intensity in
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: this game, trying to avoid the sweep. Toronto might take
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: them a little bit lightly after beating them twice. With
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: a huge series against the Yankees coming up next, it's
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: gonna be an even bigger series for the Yankees, to
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: be honest, I think Toronto overtook them in the East
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: and swept them last time, So we'll talk about that
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: when that series starts, either tomorrow or Tuesday, I forget
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: what the series starts. Toronto used a little bit more
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: of their relief staff yesterday as well, so probably a
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: slight bullpen advantage goes to San Francisco here in this one.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is Robbie Ray on the mound and he
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: has been one of their best starters, which I know
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: he's having a surprising season. Man two point six five
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: ERA one point eight whip. He's been really good both
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: home and away. Very similar numbers and Now, he did
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: get named to an All Star Game, but it was
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: not actually his first All Star game. I believe it
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: was his second, so I was thinking it was his
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: first All Star game. A lot of times a guy
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: who gets named to their first All Star game, they
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: can be a little bit distracted, especially if they play
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: in the All Star Game the first time they start
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: before and after it, it could be a little bit
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: of a distraction. But it was not his first All
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Star nod and he didn't pitch in the game, as
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: you could see here because ESPN actually puts it on
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: the game log, So he did not pitch in that game.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So I think we have to dial that.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Back a little bit and probably we expect Ray to
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: continue pitching well here, that would be my opinion, which
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: he has been doing. He has a two point one
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: to eighty RA this month in three starts against good
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: offenses too Arizona Philadelphia Dodgers, didn't allow.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: More than two earned runs in any of them.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Eighteen to six strike out walk ratios as walk right
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: went a little bit up, but he's still continuing to
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: just have a really good season, pretty consistent good numbers
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: against Toronto as well, and fifty one at bats, thirteen
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: to two strike out walk ratio, two thirty five batting average,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: and six seventy six ops. So I am liking how
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: this looks for Robby Ray. In this game, he's going
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: up against Jose Barrios three point seven to five ERA,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: one point two to four WHIP. I mean, he's a
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: decent pitcher, It's been that way for a long time.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse at home four point one
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: to four home ERA, and he has not been good
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: this month. So Robbie Ray is in the much better
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: form Barrios seven point four to three e RA this
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: month to three starts in eight to four.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Strike out walk ratio.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: So he is real kind of falling off this month,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: even though his team won two of those games.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Anyway. One was his good start against the White Sox,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: but terrible offense.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: He pitched poorly against the Yankees and pitched poorly at
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: the A's stadium. But then again, those are difficult draws
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: because you're having to face probably the best offense in
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: baseball in the Yankees, and the A's have a pretty
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: good offense as well, and facing them in that park
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: is pretty ridiculous. Maybe you give him a little bit
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: of a pass, but he is not pitching that well
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: right now, and his numbers against San Francisco are actually
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: not great. In seventy two at bats a two point
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: fifty batting average looks good. Fourteen to four strike a walk,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: raceio pretty good, seven to eighty six ops, though he's
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: allowed five.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Home runs to them, so not great.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: And I remember from Devers being on the Red Sox,
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Devers was one of the one of the few guys
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: that actually did okay against Barrios. Really it was actually
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: a duran As the one who hit Barrios really well.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: But Devers at least has.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Hit him for power with two of them runs off him.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Chapman also has two of them runs off him. A
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Domis though, actually has the best numbers five for seven
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: with a home run, so not the greatest numbers for
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Barrios there. So my lean in that game is going
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: to be towards the Giants. But the money looks like
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: it's completely disagreeing with me on that sixty percent of
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: the tickets coming in on San Francisco but seventy four
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: percent of the ash on Toronto.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away from that one. I don't love it.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: When the market read is completely opposite what I think,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: but that is just not what I think.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I think it is a spot for San Francisco.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: I think they have a starting pitching edge, of the
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge and the situational edge, although obviously the one
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: disadvantaged San Francisco has is obviously that their offense is
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: not very good. Baltimore at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: won the first two games of this series, blowing Baltimore
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: out eleven to one in the first game, which unfortunately
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: wound up being a loss for me on the show here. Luckily, though,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: as I continue to clarify, I'm not actually betting these
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: games right now. I'm just handicapping as if I were
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: betting them, but trying to conserve some money for the
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: time being. Yesterday Tampa won four to three, although actually
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Baltimore out.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Hit them eleven to five in this game.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Yesterday, Baltimore had a two nothing lead all the way
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: into the seventh inning and then blew the entire game.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: Because of course Baltimore's bullpen is terrible, but that was
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: kind of a misleading final score. Yesterday, Man Dean Kreamer
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: pitched well again Yesterday, Both starters actually did pretty well
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: in this game, and Tampa somehow got out of there
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: with a win despite being out.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Hit eleven to five in the game.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: It seems like just very timely hitting from Tampa, untimely
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: hitting or lack of timely hitting for Baltimore in that game.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Not a whole lot of bullpen usage, although the Rays did.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Use their closer.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Rays did use a couple of their better relief pitchers,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: but overall the Rays probably I would still give them
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge in this game. Baltimore's bullpen is so bad.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: Starting pitching here, Trevor Rodgers pitching for Baltimore. He's been
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: good so far. Small sample size so far this year,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: but he's doing well. One point five to three, ERA
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: point eight to two whip a little bit worse on
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: the road two point one is still not even bad.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Though he has allowed three.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Or runs in one start once and all the other
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: starts he allowed two or fewer earned runs. But that
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: one start that was his worst of the season was
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: against Tampa at Tampa, so it was in the stadium,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: so Tampa specifically was the one team that actually did
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: okay against him this season so far.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Rogers, I'm still not totally sold on him though, even
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: though I know he's pitching well. He has a point
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: six to eighty RA this month.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: He's only allowed one run in thirteen and a third innings,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: fourteen to four strike a walk ratium. Last start was
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: against Miami. It's not very impressive. He's faced some weak
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: offenses this year on Miami, Texas twice Atlanta mediocre offense really,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: but still he is pitching well against Tampa, though he
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: does not have good numbers nineteen at bats, very small
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: sample size, but three sixteen average, allowed eight fifty six ops,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: six to four strike up walk ratio, and yeah, a
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: lot of it was that one game the Rogers just
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: had against but it wasn't very good. But I'm kind
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: of leaning against Rogers here man, even though I know
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: Tampa is on the verge of a sweep, So you
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: got to look at it and think, well, maybe Baltimore
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: is gonna want to show up here and try to
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: That is a motivating factor.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Although I don't think Tampa's gonna overlook them in a
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: spot like this because they have the White Sox next,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: they don't really have a look ahead spot to look
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: ahead to. There or have a look ahead spot in
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: play here. Ryan Pepio's pitching for Tampa, and he's at
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: least the more proven of the two starters. As a
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: mention with Rogers, Rogers, just his career numbers and his
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: numbers in Triple A this year indicate that he probably
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: isn't as good as he looks so far, and at.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Least with Pepio, he's a little bit more predictable. You
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: kind of know what he is.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Three point three eighty r A, one point one five whip.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Those are good numbers, better at home as well, three
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: point one three ERA. But I would say dial that
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: back just a little bit because he's allowed eighteen home
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: runs on the season, which is not good, and fourteen
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: of them have been in this stadium, Steinbrenner Fields, the
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: spring training stadium the Rays are playing in, so you
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: definitely have to be aware of that. It's been a
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: very home run Conduci Park. Pepio's walk numbers haven't been
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: that great over the last two months or so, walking
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: at least two in all but one game, although that
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: was his most recent game against the Red Sox. Did
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: pitch okay in that game, got no run support behind him?
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: one start going all the way back into April, so
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: he has been very consistent for the most part, although
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: that one really bad start was against Baltimore. He had
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: one really good start against Baltimore right before that, though,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: so Baltimore had just seen him and then they completely
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: knocked him around in the next start. But I think
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: that start was more of an outlier. I think that
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: what's gonna happen today is I mean, this isn't going
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: out on a limb saying he's gonna land somewhere in
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: the middle of this time. He's not gonna go eight
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: innings with eleven strikeouts like he did in the first
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: game against Baltimore.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: But he's not gonna last.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: One and two thirds and get bombed and allow four
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: runs in this game either.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be somewhere in the middle for Pepio.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good against Baltimore overall, seventy two at bats,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: twenty three to four, strike at walk ratio too eight average,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: and five ninety seven oh ps. So I think we
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: have a starting pitching edge here for Tampa.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I think the hitting is not really a huge advantage
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: one way or the other.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: And I think we still have a Tampa bullpen edge
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: here as well, so I do lean to Tampa to
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: complete the sweep. Here, they are sitting up from minus
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: one eighteen to minus one nineteen. Do get a pretty
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: cheap price on them if you do like Tampa. Sixty
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: seven percent take is ninety two percent of the cash,
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: So the money looks like it's agreeing with Tampa as well,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: and that is the way that I would lean in
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: that game. Anaheim at Philadelphia, Philadelphia bounced.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Back and gotta win yesterday.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Schwerber grand Slam was pretty much the game winning hit
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: yesterday for Philadelphia. I mean, we're looking at two bad bullpens,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: so so you gotta keep that in mind.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Philly basically went with sort of a bullpen approach yesterday
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: because Taiwan Walker never goes deep into games anymore. Angels
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: had to use their bullpen after the fifth inning yesterday,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: so we're looking at some pretty tire bullpens. Angels use
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of their bullpen the day before that too,
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: so fading the bullpens in this game probably does make sense.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: Jose Soriano is gonna be pitching for Anaheim three point
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: ninety RA looks good, but one point four to five
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: whip indicates that all is not good for Soriano. That
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: is a very bad whip. Although he's been way better
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: on the road two point four to seven road ERA.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: But he's having a really good filly line up here,
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: and he has not been pitching well overall. Man last
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: three starts, really his last two starts are really bad.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: But last three starts this month, even though he had
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: a three point three eighty fourteen to ends strike a
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: walk ratio that is something that you can't look past.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Man ten walks is sixteen innings really bad. Eight walks
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: in the last nine innings along six earned runs over
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: that span. That's really bad, and only with seven strikeouts
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: over that span as well. So he is not getting
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: it done right now, walking too many guys. He's not
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: in good form. Very small stample size of four at
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: bats against Philadelphia, but they have four RBIs against him
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: their two for four, five hundred average, one thy, six
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: hundred oh ps, one strikeout, one walk, So in that
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: very small amount of playing time, Soriano has not done
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: well against Philadelphia.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Ron here excuse me.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: Suarez is pitching for Philly, the guy who got the
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: All Star snub. So because he was snubbed from the
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: All Star Game and a big deal was made of it,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: I kind of think he's gonna want to come out
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: of pitch well because of that. Here, coming right out
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: of the All Star break. He has been pitching well
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: this season two point one five ERA, one point six whip,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home though, three point one
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: to two ERA, and recently his walk numbers have started
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: going up again. And that was the issue that I
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: had with him really throughout his career, and that's why
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: I said last year, I thought he was going to
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: regress a little bit, and I think maybe we're starting
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: to see it happening again here because last two starts
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: he had eleven to five strike up walk ratio. Still
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: didn't allow that many runs four runs and eleven and
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: two thirds three point zero nine ERA, but that walk
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: rate is pretty bad. It's pretty high, so he's a
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: little bit out of control right now, even though he
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: still has not allowed more than three on runs in
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: any starts.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Is his first start of the season, so.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: He is definitely pitching well still, but it looks like
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: he's going a little bit out of form here, man,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: so I hesitate with Suarez a little bit. His numbers
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: are good against Anaheim, though, in thirty seven at bats,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: one eighty nine batting average allowed six to eighty two
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: a ps, higher than you would expect because he has
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: allowed three home runs to them, two to so Lair
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: and one to Darnault. But they don't have good batting
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: averages against him. So all that being said, though, I mean,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of leaning towards an over in this game,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: even though I think Suarez does have reason to come
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: out to pitch pretty well in this game. I definitely
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: don't trust the form that Soriano's and Suarez's forum is
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse right now. Soriano doesn't do particularly
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: well against Philly, I believe, right, Isn't that what I
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: just said? Yeah, small sample size though, and the bullpens
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: are just fade material in this one, so I think
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: the over might make sense. Total is up a little
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: bit from eight and a half to nine, sixty four
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, only sixty two percent of the cash
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: on the over though, But the way that I'm thinking
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: is the over in that one. Andrew, what's up man?
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Talking about your Anaheim Angels there again, and Philly is
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: a fairly substantial favorite, but they're down for minus one
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: eighty one seventy two, and they are very public ninety
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets only excuse me, ninety percent tickets, ninety
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash. But those numbers basically are
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: just telling me Philadelphia is a very public team and
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: probably not really a team that you want to have
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: your money on in a game like that. So yeah,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: that's how I look at that game, even though I
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: would say Suarez obviously is the better starter over Soriano though,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: and Philadelphia probably does still have the better bullpen, and
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: they obviously have the better offense. They do have the
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: advantages across the board in the game, but you're having
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: to pay a lot for it.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: White Sox at.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: Pittsburghsburg is just having a terrible series, even though they
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: have been a better home team this year. They've gotten
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: absolutely battered in this series, given up ten runs in
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: both games, losing both of them. Maybe it's time for
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh to turn it around a little bit in this game, though,
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, as I said, the White Sox do have
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess a bigger series coming up next
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay, I believe is what I said. More
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen usage on the side of the White Sox here,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: So maybe the White Sox not set up that well
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: in this game. Maybe you give Pittsburgh a little bit
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: of a bullpen edge in this game. When would you
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: ever say Pittsburgh has a bullpen edge, But against another
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: bad team that's used more of their bullpen, that may
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: be the case. Aaron Savali is gonna be pitching for
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: the White Sox here. They picked him up not that
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: long ago, and he hasn't been good with the White
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Sox or otherwise. Five point three ERA this year, one
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: point four to eight WHIP. Those are bad numbers, a
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: little bit worse on the road to five point five
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: to two Roady Ira. Since being acquired by the White Sox,
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are zero and six in his starts.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty bad, man.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's just continuing to pitch as bad as
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: he has been all season. Pretty much this month of
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: three starts, pretty bad stuff. Six point seven to five ERA,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: seven to six strikeout walk ratio. As I said, all
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: three games are losses. He'll have four more runs in
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: each of the last two. That's not good. I mean,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: those numbers are just not going to be getting the
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: job done against anybody, including against Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh actually
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: hits him well in ninety one career at bass, so
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: they have a big sample size against him to two
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: to eighty six batting average seven sixty nine oh ps,
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: So I'm expecting Savale to maybe not.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Do that well here.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Andrew Heeney, who I think does
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: have the upper hand of the two here, even though
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: his numbers are not great four point five to ninety RA,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a more tolerable one point two
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: to six whip, and he has been pretty good at home,
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: way better at home actually, with a two point five
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: to three homey RA maybe part of the reason why
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh has been a better home team. His recent form
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: is not good though, I mean, four of his last
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: five starts have been atrocious, allowing three or more runs
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: in all four of them, not even making it past
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: the fourth inning in any of them. And it's been
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: even worse than the last two starts, not making it
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: past three innings in either of them, two to two
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio along seven earned runs in five
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: innings and four home runs against two bad offenses too,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: in Kansas City and Minnesota, both on the road.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Though, But man, that is not a good sign.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Heeny is not in good form right now, so I
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: hesitate to want to back him here. He does have
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: good numbers, well, decent numbers against the White Sox and
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: fifty two at bats two point thirty one average, allowed
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a high seven to forty seven
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: ops because he's allowed three home runs, two of them
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: to Michael Taylor. Overall, though, I still give the edge
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh here though. Man, I think Pittsburgh might actually
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: have the edge all around, like situational, I think they
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: have the starting pitching.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I just still in this.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: Game bullpen rest edge. Might have to give them a
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: nond on the offen to. I mean, where's their offense
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: lie here? I mean, I know they're both not good offenses.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: They're both these are the bottom two offenses in baseball
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: looking at ops. Man, that's crazy, So I think, yeah,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: I mean I might give Pittsburgh the slight nod in
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: this one though, So Pittsburgh, Yeah, that would be the way.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I would lean in this one. But the money looks
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: like it's against it.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's down for minus one forty five to minus one
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: thirty actually pretty surprising. Pittsburgh is a public team. When
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: is that ever the case? Seventy seven percent of tickets,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: only seventy one percent of the cash. So I hesitate
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: to want to give that out as a play either
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: because there's a reverse line movement coming in against a
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: public Pittsburgh team. But that is kind of the way
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I have to I have to lean in that one.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Yankees at Atlanta, How is Atlanta gonna respond?
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Man to yesterday?
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Atlanta had a seven to two lead in the middle
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: of the game Soday, and they wind up they wound.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Up blowing the whole lead and losing the game.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: I think twelve to nine or something like that was
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: the final.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I told you the over was the way that I
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: look in the game yesterday, and that did happen.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: But man, Atlanta, will they be able to bounce back
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: from that? Because they had the Yankees on the ropes? Man,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: they were about to beat the Yankees twice in a
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: row and then they completely imploded. Both bullpen saw pretty
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: good amount of usage yesterday, so I would not want
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: to back either bullpen in this game. So maybe We're
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: looking at more offense in this game too. Yankees have
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Mark A Stroman pitching today. He is not their best pitcher.
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: He has a very evil six point six six ERA.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: That is not good man. It's deemonik one point six
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: to four whip. His stats have been bad. It's a
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: small sample size. He's trying to come back from injury,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: but hasn't been good. I mean, I guess looking at
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the amount of runs that he's allowed, it doesn't look
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: that bad, allowing three or fewer in the last three starts,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: but he's gone exactly five innings in each of those,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: so he's not really going deep into these games. His
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate hasn't been very impressive over those last four starts.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: He has an eight to five strike a walk ratio.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: He's yeah, I mean, he's just not great man. And
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: he'll come in, maybe get you some innings and keep
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: you in the game. That's basically what his job is
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: at this point. His numbers against Atlanta are pretty mediocre.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Sixty five career bats, two seventy seven batting average, seven
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: to thirty four ops. So I'm not really expecting a
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: whole lot on a Strowman here. His numbers obviously have
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: not been very good. He's going up against Grant Holmes,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: who has been the better of the two on the season.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Holmes has a full season behind him though, three point
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: seven to seven ERA, but holmes whip is going up.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: One point three. Is not a good whip man.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: He has been better at home two point seven to
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: seven ERA at home, but he's not pitching well recently
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: sixteen to eight strikeout walk ratio on three starts this
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: month over the last two starts six to five, so
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: he's really he's kind of starting to go out of form.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: His last start, he only made it three innings and
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: allowed five earned runs. Maybe you could say that was
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: an outlier because looking all the way back, even to
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the season, he'd only allowed more than
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: three in runs three other times the entire season and
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: hadn't done it at all since early May. So he
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: was pitching quite well before that. So maybe it's an
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: outlier and maybe he'll bounce back a little bit. But
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: he's facing a strong Yankees lineup here. Maybe the one
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: edge that he does have here is that the Yankees
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: have never seen him before, haven't seen a whole lot
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: of them before. Only three of their hitters have seen
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: him before, but they are two for five, often a
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: no extra race. It's no strikeouts, no walks.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with this? I would say
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: probably an over in this game.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: We have ninety three percent of tickets in, ninety two
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over though, so it is
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: very public. But that's kind of the way that I'm
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: looking at this. Total came out at a really high
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: nine and a half with heavy juice on the over,
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: and the juice has actually gone down a little bit.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Juice is a little bit less loose in this case,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: but with the bullpen situation being the way that it
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: is not really trusting either starter here, I think that's
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: kind of the way that I would have to lean
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: here the market. Reid is saying Atlanta though as well,
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: because is a favorite here, and it's because Holmes is
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: better than Stroman. But the public, I think, is gonna
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: look at this and think, how could Atlanta possibly be
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: a favorite like this? How am I getting the Yankees,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: an above five hundred team won yesterday, one of the
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: best teams in baseball up against a below five hundred
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: Atlanta team. How am I getting the Yankees as an
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: underdog like it looks almost too easy to take the Yankees,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: and we have sixty eight percent of tickets on the
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: Yankees only sixty four percent of the cash, So the
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Yankees are one of those.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Dreaded road public underdogs here.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: I always tell you that in a case like that,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: you do want to look to the favorite. The books
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: are still giving Atlanta a lot of respect. Man telling
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: you that Atlanta still is not as bad as their
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: record looks. I do agree with that, and that game
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: is just going to be a stay away from me though.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: San Diego at Washington pretty good pitching matchup. In this
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: one interesting pitching matchup. Washington won four to two yesterday,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: even the series at won apiece. Some bullpen us suggesterday,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: but Washington did use some of their best relievers yesterday.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: Best Washington terrible bullpen, So San Diego does have the
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. They They've been using a lot of
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: their bullpen recent but they didn't have to use as
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: much of it yesterday, So I do think San Diego
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: has a fairly substantial bullpen edge in this game. I'll
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: probably give San Diego a little bit of the edge
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: on offense, as well, and I might give him a
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: starting pitching edge too. Nick Pavetta pitching for them, definitely
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: having a good season two point eight eighty RA, one
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: point zero to WHIP. He's been worse on the road though,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: four point zero nine Roady Ray, so he pitches a
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: lot better in the pitcher friendly park in San Diego.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: He is in good form this month Thon in three
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: starts with a zero point four to ninety Ray in
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: three starts. He's allowed one earned run across that Entirishman
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: against Philly twice in Arizona. That is pretty impressive. Twenty
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: one to five strike a walk ratio. Start before that
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: was actually against Washington and he dominated them in seven innings,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: allowing no runs, three hits, ten strikeouts and no walks.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: So he has been in good form for a while now,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: and he did dominate this Washington team the last time out.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: He does have good numbers against him in general, and
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: sixty five at bats, twenty two to six strike a
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, two hundred batting average against him four to
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: eighty three OPS. And one of the points that I
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: do make is a lot of times when a starter
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: did just face an opposing offense a lot of times
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: that offense will do better the next time out against them,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: and maybe they will. I mean it's hard not to
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: do better because he completely shut them out. But when
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: it's a veteran like Nick Pavetta, I mean, you're familiar
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: with what Pavetta throws, so sometimes it is just a
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: matchup thing where I know I got some of that
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: wrong last couple of days, but sometimes.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: It is just a matchup thing.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Paveta, he is a veteran, so it's like Washington was
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar with him coming into that game either, So yes,
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: they do have recent familiarity with him, but Paveta has
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: done really well against them. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Washington here He's been good three point oh two ERA
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: one point two Whip good at home as well two
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: point three to nine Homira, so the splits are in
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: his favor. But I kind of would want to fade
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: Gore here man, to be honest, because he just pitched
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: in the All Star Game and I believe that was
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: his first time being named to an All Star team.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: So he's in one of those spots. We have a
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: lot of guys today that are in a spot like that.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Where they got named to their first All Star Game,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: and it might be a little bit of an issue,
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: like it might distract that player a little bit, man
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: because it kind of throws them off schedule.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: They might be feeling good about that.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: He pitched a score is inning in the All Star Game,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: so he might come out of that and not pitch
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: that well. And he was starting to struggle with his
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: wildness a bit the last three starts going into the
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: All Star break. He walked at least three and three
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: out of the four nine to five strike out walk
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: ratio in two starts this month, not looking that great
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: even though he hasn't been aligning that many runs. His
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: wildness is starting to crop up again, So I kind
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: of prefer Paveta on this one. Gore doesn't have numbers
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: that are that good against San Diego and fifty nine
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: at bats pretty bad fifteen to twelve strikeout walk ratio,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: so again the wildness kind of coming into play there.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Two seventy one adding average in eight oh one ops.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: So my lean in this game would be to San Diego.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: For all those reasons.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Uh, they are a very public road favorite though, so
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: I have some hesitations on it, but I would I
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: would say that out of the games that I'm not
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: giving out plays on, I thought this was one of
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: the stronger ones. So I actually I was liking Tampa Bay.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Out of these so far, Tampa Bay and uh, San
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Diego were kind of the two that I was looking at.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Ninety take as ninety three percent of the cash on
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: San Diego and they are up for minus one ten
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: to mis one to twenty three. So this has the
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: market look to me like it is the public and
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: the professionals are actually all agreeing on San Diego, which
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: sometimes you don't want to do that because that doesn't
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: mean the books are gonna need San Diego to probably
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: lose that game, and they'll probably be tied into parlays
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: and stuff as well, so those parlays, the books just
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: need one of those teams to lose.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be San Diego.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but I do have to lean to
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego and that one based on the handicap of that.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Speaking of players who pitched in their first All Star
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Game or had their first All Star nod, that's what
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: we have going on here in Cincinnati and the Mets,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: because that is the case with both of the starting
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: pitchers in this game. Here, Mets are on the version
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: of getting swept and they are at home, so you
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: gotta kind of expect Mets probably gonna come up with
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: some fire here, man. I mean, you don't want to
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: get swept at home by the reds man, and the
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: Mets are the better team, so I do think the
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: Mets are gonna come out with some fire on this one.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati actually used a decent amount of their bullpend yesterday,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: so I think you have to give the Mets the
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge in this game as well. Andrew Abbot is
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: pitching for Cincinnati. As I said, he was named to
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: the All Star Team, and rightfully so, I think he
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: was a replacement too. But he's been really good this year.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Two point seven ERA one point wait whip. He's having
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: a great season, very good both home and away. Did
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: pitch in the All Star Game, had a scoreless inning
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: in the All Star Game. He was pitching pretty well
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: going into the All Star Game.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Well.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: He had one good start prior to the All Star Game,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: dominating Miami pretty much, going seventy two thirds line one
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: on run, but he had a bad start at Philly
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: the game before that. But that looked like it was
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: kind of an outlier because it's a good offense, was
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: a tough assignment to go face them on the road.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: Basically his other starts, he was doing really well prior
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: to that, so I am going to chalk that up
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: to being a little bit of an outlier. So I
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: do like Abbot, but because he's coming off his first
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: All Star appearance, his first time being named to the
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: All Star team again, I think that has kind of
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: a hangover effect. So I don't know that I love
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Abbot in this game. And his numbers against the Mets
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: are not good, and thirty two at bats they've hit
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: him well six to four, strikeout, walk right year three
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: seventy five average nine four ohps, so I think Abbot
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: is actually fadeable in this spot. He's going up against
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: David Peterson, who, you know, I don't particularly like David
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: Peterson because his stats suggests that he should regress at
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: some point, but he's been doing this for a couple
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: of years now. He has a three point zero six
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: CYRA one point two to four whip, which is a
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: little bit high. He's been really good at home two
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: point one point one ERA at home, so definitely better
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: at home. He pitched in his first All Star Game
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: as well. That was his first All Star Game. I
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: believe he got to pitch in it. He pitched a
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: scoreless inning as well, got out of a jam.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Where he allowed two hits.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: He was pitching fairly well going into the All Star
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Break with a ten to three strike out walk ratio
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: of the prior to starts, but the two starts prior to.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: That, he didn't.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: He did not even make it five innings and four
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: starts in a row. He walked three guys a piece
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: and four starts in a row before the good start
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore going into the All Star break. We had
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: a seven inning, one run performance in that one. So
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: he actually wasn't in the greatest form there. And I
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: don't know if that Baltimore start means he's coming back
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: into form because he pitched in the All Star Games,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: So I get again think that might throw you off schedule,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of a distraction. And his numbers
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: are bad against the Reds and twenty three at bats
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: five to six strike out walk ratio. That's bad, three
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: h four batting average, eight eighty three ops. So I'm
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: thinking the over is the way you want to look
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: in this game. Man, it seems counterintuitive, and it actually
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: looks like it's anti public. Fifty tickets on the under,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the cash on the over total
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: just kind of sitting at eight and a half juice
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: to the under. I think bull starters could get lit
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: up in this one, man, even though they're both really good.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: I think it's a kind of a sneaky over here,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: and I think both bullpens are fairly untrustworthy. Both teams
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: can hit a little bit here, man, Should I do it?
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's that spot where you want to fade
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: both these pitchers coming out of the All Star Game too.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: Let me see, I'm gonna look at Action Network quickly
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: because looking at Action Network it was like it didn't
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: look like it was the greatest thing. Let me see here,
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: uh total, I'm looking right now.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Where is the total for this game?
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not showing it on my screen just because this
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: is a it's something you do have to pay for
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: them whatever. I'm not gonna add the play on it,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: but man, I'm tempted to do it. That looks like
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: a game where you do want to play the over
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: in that one. We'll stay off of it, I guess,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: just because both starters, I mean, they do have the
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: potential to come out of pitch well. Again, Man, that
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: is close to me wanting to play that over in
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: That's the way I lean in that one.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: And as far as the side, the money looks like
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: it is coming in towards Cincinnati Mets down for minus
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: one fifteen to minus one forty sixty seven percent of
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: tickets and cash both on the Mets. The Mets are public,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: so it looks like the professional money is indicating towards
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: the Cincinnati sweep. Here public the professionals, I'm assuming like
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Abbot over Peterson, Man. And maybe one reason to kind
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: of dial it back on the over is that both
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: pitchers are lefties. Although I know I said that in
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: the first game of that series the lefty versus lefty matchup,
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: and my under did not wind up winning in that one.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: But both of these lineups don't actually hit lefties particularly
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: well either. They're both kind of in the bottom third
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: against left handed pitchers. Kansas City at Miami, Zach is
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: about to come out of the woodwork here for his
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: royals here, who are about to get swept by Miami
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: potentially here this is it's a rough go of it
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: for the Royals, man, I mean they have one of
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: the best, one of the worst offenses in baseball exusday.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: They couldn't even hit Cal Quantrill yesterday. Oh boy, not
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: looking good for the Royals. Not a lot of bullpen
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: you suggest today on either side though, So bullpen's basically attacked.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: You gotta give Kansas City the bullpen edge. Looking at
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: the starting pitchers, you would think you got to give
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Kansas City the starting pitching edge here with Boo Bitch
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: on the mound, he's having a good season two point
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: four to eighty RA, one point one to six WHIP.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: I think he's coming back from from injuries as well.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: I think him and Robbie Ray both are coming back
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: from having like I think they both might have had
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Tommy John surgery.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: But you can check me if I'm wrong on that.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Boo Bitch has been a little bit better on the
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: road to two point one to three road e RA,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: but he got named to his first All Star Game. Man,
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: he was struggling a little bit going into the Star Game.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: He did have twelve strikeouts over the last two starts,
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: and the Royals actually won both of those. They actually
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: put up some offense in one of them against the Diamondbacks.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: But Booviach should have a four point two six ERA
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: across those two US or no. Four point two sixty RA. Yeah,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I guess it's including the bad All Star performance, so
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but whatever. He gave up three runs
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: each against Arizona and Pittsburgh, so it wasn't that great,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: and had five walks across that span of twelve and
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: two thirds inning, so he was allowing a lot of
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: guys to reach base, so not that great. And then
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: he went into the All Star Game and actually pitched
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: really poorly, gave up three runs and a third of
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: an inning, walked a guy, didn't strike out anybody two hits.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: So he had a bad performance in the All Star Game,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: which on the one hand means well, maybe he wants
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: to bounce back here. He should bounce back from a
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: bad All Star performance. And then again, I think he's
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: just not a good form right now necessarily, man, and
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: I think the All Star appearance can kind of throw
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: you off schedule and hang you over. The advantage he
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: does have here is Miami. He has pretty much never
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: seen him for although Hill is the only guy who
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: has seen it before.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: He is two for two off him. So read into
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: that what you want to.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't read too much into that, but I think
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: he does have a little bit of an edge, I
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: guess because Miami hasn't seen him before. Miami actually probably
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: has the better offense over Kansas City, which is how
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: bad Kansas City's offense is. Jansen Junk is pitching for
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Miami and he actually has not been Junk. He's actually
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: doing pretty well. Two point six eighty RA point nine
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: to nine whip, one point eight nine e RA at home,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: very good numbers for Junk actually, and he was pitching
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: well going into the All Star break. Three starts in
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: the month of July twelve to two strike out walk
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: ratiow not a high strikeout rate, but he was not
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: allowing a lot of hits at all, not allowing a
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: lot of walks, putting very few guys on base, allowed
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: to horn runs and then zero in the next two starts,
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: point nine to five r in June, and man, yeah, Junk,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: he's actually pitching well. He's allowed more than to horn
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: runs only twice. All I think he was coming out
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen in some of those, but he's facing
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: a weak offense here. Kansas City, they actually have not
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: seen Junk before either. They are two for four off them, though,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: so the rest of their guys have never seen him before,
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: so they have a lot of unfamiliarity with them. But
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: they do have two guys. Only Fraser has hits off him.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: The Fraser is two for two often so because of
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity aspect of it, and because these offenses are
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: not that good, I am still thinking maybe the under
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: is the way you want.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: To look at this game.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: Totals down from eight to seven and a half. I mean,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit risky to do that, but I
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: think that might be the way to look in this game.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: The bullpen's are fairly well rested. I don't know if
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: you could trust Miami's bullpen necessarily, but Kansas City's bullpen
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: is good in Kansas City's offense is really weak, so
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: that all being factored in, maybe the full game under
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: does make sense. Sixty two percent take is ninety one
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under. I do worry
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: about Boo Bitch, though, Like I said, I worry about
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: these guys coming out of their first All Star Game,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: and we have a lot of them today. Sixty four
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy eight percent of the cash on
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: Kansas City indicates there is money coming into them. But
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: they're down for minus one thirty two to minus one
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: to seventeen. So I'm not quite so sure what the
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: market is telling us here. Kids of the City is public.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: I don't really think they should be laying a favorite
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: price here. I think it's because Boobitch has been really
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: good on the season. I think they're getting a little
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: bit of too much respect here.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know how you can have a team that
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: can't hit it all being favored on the road like
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: that doesn't make any sense. I'm gonna skip this game
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: for now because that's a's Cleveland is a game. Will
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: give it out a play my Red Sox at the Cubs.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are on the Virgin getting swept here. Like
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: I said, Red Sox didn't even score yesterday. I Monaga
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: pitched really well against them. Not a lot of bullpend
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: usage on either side yesterday, so both bullpens are in
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: good shape coming into this game. Starting pitching, we have
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet pitching for the Red Sox, and since the
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Red sox has started to hit, Garrett Crochet's win loss
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: record is looking a lot better. Red Sox getting a
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: lot of wins in his start as of late, He's
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: been excellent. A two point two three ERA, one point
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: zero four whip on the season. Really nice stuff, really
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: good both.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Home and away. It doesn't even matter.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: I believe he was named to the All Star team,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: but he didn't pitch in the game, so the last
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: time he took them out. He had a complete game
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: shutout against Tampa with nine strikeouts, no walks along three hits.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have one. Uh what is that?
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: Seven of his last eight starts, the Red Sox have one.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: This month, he has a sixteen to two strikeout walk
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: ratio across two starts with a one point two to
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: nine ERA against Washington though very bad offense, and Tampa
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: they do have a decent offense, so pretty impressive start
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: for Croche against Tampa. Krishe has been really bad against
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: the Cubs though, so even though he's a great pitcher.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: He's in good form right now. You gotta worry about
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: these numbers against the Cubs. Small sample size seventeen at bats,
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: but the Cubs have really really hit him. Five batting
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: average one thousand and six seventy three oh ps alone,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: no walks against him, five strikeouts at Horner and Half
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: both have home runs. I'm not liking what I'm seeing here. Man.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox might get swept here.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Best picture for the Red Sox on the mound here,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: but his matchup numbers look really bad. He's gonna be
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: going up against the weaker of the two pitchers, obviously
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Cad Horton, but he's a young guy who a lot
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: of offenses are just unfamiliar with them, so you don't
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: really know what you're gonna get out of Horton. Four
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: point four to five R one point four to one whip.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: Cad Horton not as consistent as Scott Horton. Horton is
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: good at home though, two point five four ERA, but
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: he's coming off a start where he was really bad
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota on the road. Give it four and runs
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: of four to two thirds, walk two guys, six hits,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: put a ton of guys on base. He did have
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts, but he looks to be falling out of
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: form a little bit here. Man. Across the last four starts,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: He's failed to go five innings, and three of them
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: he's allowed two or more walks and all of them.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate has gone down as well, So cad Horton
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: not pitching well as of late. Maybe you don't trust
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: him here. Yes, he's unfamiliar to the Red Sox, they've
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: never seen it before, but he is not that great
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: a pitcher. Although the money seems to be indicating this
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a very low scoring game, which it
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: must mean there's wind blowing in at regularly today. The
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: wind always seriously affects the total when the oddsmakers put
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: the total out, So the wind coming off the lake,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: it must be blowing in. And this one, which is
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: part of the reason why we see the total at
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: six and a half now, or I guess six and
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: a half with juice to the over, so maybe it's.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Still kind of around seven. That seems like a low
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: total to me.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Man, given that Crochet doesn't have good numbers against the Cubs,
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: cad Horton might be hittable here. Bullpends are intact, though,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: so I understand the sentiment that this could be a
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: low scoring game. Obviously, Crochet, whenever he's on the mone
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: you're gonna see a pretty low total.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: But still, maybe the toll here is too low.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are road favorite here, which maybe is also
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: not really justifiable. They're public, which is kind of weird
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: that I guess the public just loves that it's Crochet.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Seventy six percent take is ninety three percent of the
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: cash on the Red Sox laying minus one thirty five
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: as a road favorite. To me, I think that's too
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: much of a price to lay with the Red Sox.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Man giving the Crochet is bad matchup numbers, I think
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: you are paying too much of a price for Crochet.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're talking about the Cubs, one of the
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: best teams in baseball at home. Granted, yes, it is
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: the Cubs with one of their lesser pitchers on the
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: mound here, but again, I think maybe taking the shot
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs money line does make sense that the
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are going to try to come out and
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: avoid getting swept here, but I'm not too confident in it.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: Giving out bad Crochet's numbers are it might make sense
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: to just take the shot with the Cubs on the
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: money line, roll with their offense, and uh roll with
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity aspect of Horte, and even though I don't
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: know that you could trust him really Minnesota at Colorado,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Colorado has actually won both games in this series. A
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: lot of high scoring going on here, especially yesterday ten
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: to six, Colorado putting up some offense. Finally sixteen runs
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: over these last two games. They got to Zebi Matthews. Yesterday,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: you gave up too many hard hits. Yesterday his strikeout
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: walk numbers were good, but he didn't do well in
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: the game. But now Minnesota might be able to avoid
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: the sweep here. Man Obviously, that's what they're gonna try
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: to do here. I mean, do you really want to
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: go face the Rockies and get swept by the Rockies.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: But of course probably the public.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Sentiment is gonna be there's no way the Twins get
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: swept by the Rockies, right. I still think the Twins
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: are a little bit better than the record would indicate
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: that they are, and they do have the guy for
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: the job here. If they're trying to avoid the sweep,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan. It's just a matter of do you think
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: there's any distraction in his head here because everybody's talking
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: about him maybe getting traded because Minnesota might they might
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: be selling before the All Star break, so we may
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: see Joe Ryan get traded. Is that gonna affect his mindset?
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But he's been really good this season.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: Two point seven to two erazer point nine to one win,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: really good numbers this year, very good both home and away.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: But speaking of guys name to their first All Star Game, Joe.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Ryan was also nominated. He was named to his first
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: All Star Game and he pitched scoreless inning in the game.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Continuing the fact that he's been pretty good this month,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: he is a two ERA across three starts. I think
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: that includes the All Star Game again, but still he
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: had a two something ERA anyway, giving up no more
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: than two earned runs in any of the three starts
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: this month, seventeen.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: To three, strike out walk.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: Razio gets some fairly weak offenses, but still Ryan, he's
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: very consistent. He's allowed more than three earned runs only
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: three times all season. But he's pitching a course field here.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: But he does pretty much dominate the Rockies in his history.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: In thirty one at bats, they only have four hits
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: off in ten strikeouts, two walks, one twenty nine average
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: three seventy five ohps. So the question is is Ryan
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: going to be distracted because of all the trade rumors
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: and because he's coming out of pitching in his first
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: All Star game. Those are the things you have to
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: worry about about Ryan, because otherwise, yes, Ryan is obviously
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: the better starter here over Herman Marquez, who is not
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: doing too well five point five to seven ERA one
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: point six whip. He's actually been slightly better at home
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: five point zero three e RA in course field, and
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: he's actually for him, he's actually pitching a little bit
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: better as of late, allowing no more than touring, allowing
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: more than touring runs only once in his last six starts,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: which is actually pretty impressive for a guy like him.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: He's actually not been that bad. Even going all the
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: way back into May. He only allowed uh more than
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: touring runs two other times, and he allowed four and
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: three earn runs in those games. So Marquez is actually
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: pitching well enough to keep his team in the game.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: But he doesn't have good numbers against Minnesota on thirty
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: seven at bats eleven to five strikeout walk ratio. Some
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: of their guys haven't seen him before, but the guys
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: that have two ninety seven average seven eighty six ops.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if we trust Marquez might see
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: Ryan being a little bit distracted in this game. The
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: total came out really high, I mean for a Joe
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: Ryan game, and given the Marquez has actually been not
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: horrible recently, that total coming out at eleven seems crazy.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: The money is actually coming in on the under. It's
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: all the way down to ten and a half, eighty
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the over, seventy eight percent of
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: causual on the under, Minnesota is a huge road favorite
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep. In the minus two hundreds,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: minus two thirty. They're up to now eighty three percent
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: tickets ninety one percent of the casual Minnesota. But again,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: Ryan might be in a little bit of a distracted
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: spot here. So I mean, this game is just gonna be.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: This is a game I'm gonna fade, man. I mean,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna play the game. I should say, obviously,
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: this is a game that I think is just a
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: total stay away. I mean, the one way you could
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: look at it maybe is that you play on Minnesota
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: to try to score some runs against Marquez, just because
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: he does have bad matchup numbers and just in general
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: He's really not that good. So maybe you try to
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: play in Minnesota to score five six runs the game,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: but Minnesota's offense is bad enough that that doesn't seem
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: that great either.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Jr.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: What's up man, Good morning, Thanks for hanging out, Happy Sunday.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Thanks for coming to my version of church here. I
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: guess not to be blasphemous or anything. Houston at Seattle.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: The first thing you look at here is, holy crap,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: this is the best pitching matchup of the day. This
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: is gonna be an under right Hunter Brown against Brian Woom.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, this looks like it's gonna be a complete
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: under type of play, right, But I will tell you why.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: I'm maybe that's a little bit risky to think that way.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, you go under in the
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: full game. In this one, you're looking at two teams
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: that went eleven innings. Yesterday, Seattle I believe, blew a
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: lead in the game and then wound up winning anyway.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Against Houston last night, Seattle I believe, has won both
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: games in the series so far. So Seattle's on a
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: roll right now. They've won five games in a row. Houston,
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: trying to move away the sweep pier though. But this
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: series does mean something to Seattle is they're behind Houston
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: in the standing. Seattle definitely wants to get as close
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: as they ken to Houston here. But the reason why,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: first of all, I'm not gonna be playing an under
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: here full game is that the the bullpens just got
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: absolutely murdered yesterday. Both teams rolled out seven guys out
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen yesterday. So the bullpen situation, even though
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are reasonably good, you don't want to deal
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: with these bullpens here, man. They're massively taxed after yesterday. Okay,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: so what about early in the game the starting pitching matchup, Well,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: there are some reasons why I don't love that idea either.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: Hunter Brown, yes, obviously has been really good two point
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: four to three ERA point nine six whip. Also, I
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: understand this is a very pitcher friendly park, so keeping
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: that in mine, Hunter Brown is the exact same era
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: both home and away, the model of consistency coming up
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: a start where he really didn't do that well his
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: last two starts against Cleveland and Texas. But I told you,
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: I think he was distracted by the fact that he
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: was named to his first All Star team. He didn't
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: pitch in the All Star Game, but that was his
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: first All Star nomination is for the first time he's
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: been named to an All Star Game, so I think
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: that did distract him. So I think he is gonna
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: start pitching better again after those two pretty bad starts,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: giving up ten runs in eleven innings against Cleveland and Texas.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Is he in bad form?
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because he had eight strike ups and
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: two walks against Texas, so that start, some aspects of
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: it weren't as bad, so maybe he is gonna come
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: back in a form.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: He has been good against Seattle.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: On one hundred and four of bats, he's pretty much
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: dominated them thirty five to nine strike at walkers, y're
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: two to zho two batting average a lot in five
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: sixty ops.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: Brown has definitely been good against Seattle.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: But I'm worried that coming out of the All Star Break,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: maybe he will be still.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: A little bit distracted.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little bit less of a worry though,
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: because he didn't pitch in the All Star Game and
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: he didn't pitch well going into the break, so maybe
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: he will be refocused here and pitch better. He does
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: have good matchup numbers. He's going up against Brian Woo, who,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: of course is also having an excellent season. Two point
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: seven five ERA, zero point nine three WHIP. He's been great,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: really good at home one point eight home e RA.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: He did pitch in the All Star Game. He pitched
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: one scoreless inning. I don't know how the NL got
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: six runs of this game, and seeing all these al
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: pitchers that had scoreless innings in the game, it was
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: mostly boo bitch, boo bitch.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: I gave up half of the runs. Brian Wu.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: I believe this is his first All Star being named
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: the first time he was named to an All Star
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: Game as well in his first All Star appearance.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Will that hang him over to this game. I don't know,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: because he's been really consistent.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in the last
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: five starts prior to the All Star Game. He's been
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: really consistent all year. I mean, he's really an excellent pitcher.
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Houston aren't quite as good though, on
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: thirty five at bats two eighty six average, not a
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: lot of extra base hits though six forty eight ohps
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: is still pretty low, so.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: They still haven't done a ton of damage against him.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: So yes, it does look like on the surface, both
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers should do pretty well here, so it should
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: be kind of an under type of game here, But
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: again I hesitate because of the All Star distractions surrounding
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: both pitchers here being named to their first All Star Game.
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: Total came out at six and a half, which, again,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: you know me, the key number is seven in baseball
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: because it breaks the three to three tie. I really
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: I almost will never recommend going under six and a half.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: I just think there's not enough room for error there,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: so I just don't think you could do that. The
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: total actually went up a little bit though, to six
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: and a half juice of the over, so you might
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: be able to find the under seven full game, but
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: I still wouldn't want to do that because the bullpen
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: situation is awful here. Yes, both starting pitchers do have
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: the potential to get you deep into the game, but
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: I still don't know that you could trust the bullpens
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: getting in there with such little room for error. With
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: the number here, and there's gonna be a little room
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: for error in the first five innings as well, you'd
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: have to go under three probably in the first five
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: innings doesn't seem like the greatest idea to me either,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: So it's a stay away. But we do see the
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: money coming in now on the under, sixty tickets on
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: the over, which seems weird for me. The public wants
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: to come in and play in over here, but I
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: guess they see, Oh, Seattle and.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Houston two offenses that can score. Let's go over even.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Though it's Brown versus woo oh man fifty the cash
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: on the under, though, But if you like good pitching
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: and pitching duels, I mean, this does set up like
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: it might be one so that one doesn't look like
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: a bad game to me as far as that's concerned.
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: Like these young talented pitchers man Milwaukee at the Dodgers.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's on the verge of sweeping the Dodgers again. Dodgers
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: have lost five straight games to Milwaukee. Now is it
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: gonna happen? Are they really gonna get swept here? Man?
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Dodgers couldn't get it done yesterday. Milwaukee.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't trust either bullpen here, man. Neither
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: bullpen is that good on the Milwaukee has actually been
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: a fairly good bullpen over the last month or so,
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: but Milwaukee, they've used their closer two straight games. Here,
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: They've used a lot of the back end of their
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen two straight games. So I don't think Milwaukee's bullpen
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: is in good a good situation here, man, they're not resting.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Dodgers used a lot of their bullpen yesterday because Shean
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: got knocked out of the game after three innings. Very
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: difficult to see, especially when I liked the under early
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: on in that game. But I do not like the
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: bullpens coming into this game, and to me, it looks
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: like this should be a pitching matchup that the Dodgers
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: could win, can win this game. I mean, Kintana's pitching
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: for the Brewers, and I know he has a really
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: good ERA three point two eight, but one point three
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: to six whip indicates there's obviously something wrong with Kintana.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: He's doing way better on the road though, one point
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: eight two roadra way better on the road, and he's
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: still somehow he's just limiting the runs. Like throughout the
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: course of the season, he's alloted more than three on
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: runs or more than two horn runs I guess, three
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: times all season, So I don't know how he's getting
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: away with this how he's doing this. His team has
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: actually won five of his last seven starts, but his
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk numbers have been terrible. In the month of June,
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: seventeen to sixteen strike out walk ratio. You can't walk
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: that many guys and be unable to fool hitters like
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: this and continue to get away with it. Seven to
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: four strike out walk ratio this month. And he did
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: just face the Dodgers and he held him to one
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: run somehow and they won the game an extra innings.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know how he did it, but he walked
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: four guys in the game, which again, not a good sign.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: When you're walking this many guys, I'm not sure that
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: he could keep it up. Dodgers have hit him okay
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: in the past and one hundred and twenty at bats
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: twenty to twelve strike at walk ratio. Again, that's a
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: bad ratio two sixty seven batting average allowed, seven to
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: ninety two ohps. So his number is not that great
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: Against the Dodgers. He's going up against Clayton Kershaw, who
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: I know. Kershaw I believe actually pitched in the All
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Star Game. But for him, I mean, he's been there
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: and done that. So I don't think that's gonna affect
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: him at all. I don't think we care at all
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: if oh Kershaw got named his eleventh All Star Game
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: or whatever.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Who cares.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: Kershaw has been pretty bad at home this year though,
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: four point seven to three ERA, so the splits are
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: definitely in favor of Kintana. But I don't know, man,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: because Kershaw actually did start pitching well prior to going
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: into the All Star Game. He actually had an alumber
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: than touring runs. Actually he did it once against the
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: White Sox. In his last six starts, he only did
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: it once. Over the course of the season, He's only
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: a lot more than two and runs three times more
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: than three on runs twice. He is actually pitching decently, man,
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: He's kind of rounding back in the form. It's kind
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: of an aging pitcher, you know, coming off some or
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: definitely an aging pitcher, an agent pitcher coming off with
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: some injuries. But the Dodgers had won six straight starts
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: of his before they lost his last start against Milwaukee,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: which who he is facing here. But it wasn't his fault.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: They didn't get any run support for him. He gave
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: him two runs and six innings. Pretty good start. His
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout raid is gunn down. Yeah, he's not the Kershot
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: of old. Really, he's not coming down and blowing guys away.
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: But I mean, his walk number has been relatively low.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: He's not onlying that many hits. He's effective. At least
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: he did pitch in the All Star Game, went two
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: thirds of an inning, struck out a guy and only
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: threw six pitches, so they didn't really he didn't have
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: to exert much in that in that game there, in
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: the All Star Game there, So I think he's fine
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: to pitch here. He's in decent enough form against the Brewers.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: His numbers are not great on seventy six at bats
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: two seventy six average, eight to nineteen ops, So Kershaw, I.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: Don't know if we trust him here.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: Man, I was kind of leaning towards the Dodgers in
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: this game to avoid the sweep. I still think Kershaw
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: is the preferred way to go. We are over Kintana.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: Don't love the Dodgers' bullpen at all. Don't like either
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen though, so it's kind of surprising it looks like
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: the money might be coming in on the under, because
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: I was thinking maybe an over here. I mean both
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers don't have great matchup numbers. Total is flipped
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: from nine juice to the under, the nine juice to
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: the over. Though we see seventy sixty five percent tickets
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: in the over, fifty four percent of the cash on
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: the over, so the cash less, so in the over,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: I'm leading to the over, especially given the bullpen situation.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Total is high for a reason.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: Cash looks like it's kind of coming into the Dodgers,
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: even though they're down for one to fifty seven to
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: minus one. Fifty seventy four percent of take is ninety
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash coming into the Dodgers.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: You could look to the Dodgers first.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: Five innings and not have to deal with this bad
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Dodgers bullpen. I just don't think they're gonna be motivated
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: in the entire game to avoid the sweep. But I mean,
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: you are looking at two good offenses too, So I
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: still think the over might be the better way to
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: look at that game, even though I know it seems
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: like it's basically just too easy. Almost the public is
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: just gonna be on and over in that one, and
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: it's too good offenses.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: But I mean that's just the truth.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: I mean when it's at over, you kind of do
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: want to look for too good offenses Saint Louis at Arizona.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Arizona's on the verge.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Of a sweep peer and they've outscored Saint Louis seventeen
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: to four in the series. Sonny Gray got lit up yesterday.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: Very bad performance with Sonny Gray. A good performance from
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: Ryan Nelson again for Arizona and Arizona. Neither team had
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: to use that much of their bullpen, although I don't
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: like either bullpen really, especially don't like Arizona's bullpen. But
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: I also don't like Miles michel Us for the Cardinals.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: He's not been very good. Four point nine to four ERA,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: one point two nine whip. I don't think he's the
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: guy you want out there to try to avoid the
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: sweet beer. He's been really abound on the road five
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: point five eighty R. And he bounced back nicely after
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: getting lit up for six home runs at Wrigley Field.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: He got lit up in a couple of games in
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: a row, giving up fourteen e runs and ten innings
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: across two starts at Cleveland.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Who's a bad offense too?
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: And at the Cubs bounced back with a decent start
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: against Washington, six strikeouts, one walk, and a five to
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: two thirds inning shutout against Washington, maybe rounding back.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Into for him a little bit.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: And surprisingly he actually is good against Arizona, even though
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Arizona is a good offense. This is a hitter friendly park,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: but an eighty eight bats against him, he's held him
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: to two twelve average six point fifty nine ops.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Kennel Marte looks like he is backed our catell whatever
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: he was.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: Dude, Martey took like three days off because his house
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: got robbed.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I assume when he wasn't even home. Who does that?
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: Like this is the guy who was crying because somebody
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: made your mom joke and then and now he takes
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: like an extended absence because his home got robbed. What
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: aren't you supposed to be a professional athlete, aren't you
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: You're supposed to be a man, Like you're a fucking
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: pussy bro.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. It's one of the softest things I've ever heard.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: He might be the softest professional athlete out there right now.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: It's crazy.
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: That is just crazy, especially when you're the best hitter
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: on your team and your team is trying to, you know,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: make a push try to get back into the race here.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, it makes no sense, it's crazy, but anyway, Yeah,
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Micholas does have good numbers overall against Arizona. Merril Kelly's
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: pitching for Arizona, and he is obviously the better of
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: the two pitchers. He's having a good season and just
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: flies under the radar. Three point three four ERA, one
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: point zero five whip, pretty good both home and away,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: pretty good, last a few starts, well, last few starts
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: this month. Thirteen to seven strike a walk ratio isn't
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: that good, even though he's allowed three or fewer earned runs,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: and all of them he's allowed three or fewer in
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: the last five starts. He is pitching pretty consistently with
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: that walk rate. Going a little bit up is a
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: little bit of a concern there. Thirteen to seven strike
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: a walkers. You're two point five ERA, though, but still
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: walk four guys last summer. Maybe he'll settle back down
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: because his walk numbers were not that bad in the
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: previous month, But right now he's a little bit iffy
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: and his numbers against the Cardinals are not that good
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: and seventy nine at bats a thirteen to seven strigo
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Hey, the same ratio. That's weird, man, That's like,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: that's the same ratio he has this month.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: Very strange.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: Uh, simulation man, We're in a simulation two ninety one
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed eight h five ops. So Kelly actually
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: has bad numbers against uh Saint Louis. So the matchup
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: numbers actually look like they favor mikal Less in this game.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: But is that really the way you want to go?
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: I would not want to have my money on that guy.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: It looks like the money is actually coming in an
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Arizona for minus one forty three min one fifty one.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: The sentiment being Kelly is obviously better than me. Kulas
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: seventy four.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Percent take is ninety percent of the cash coming in
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: in Arizona. Yeah, I mean I would, I.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Just I don't necessarily disagree with it, but I hesitate
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: with it because Saint Louis probably gonna be motivated to
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweep year and the matchup numbers do look
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: against it.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: So those are kind of my thoughts on that game.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: Don't really want to have anything to do with that one, obviously,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: But Saint Louis, I will say that they are a
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: little bit overrated, which professional money is also coming in
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: in Arizona because you're like, well, how could a below
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: five hundred team be laying a price like that against
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: an above five hundred team? Right, So the public is
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna understand why that's the case with the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: ozekers are telling you Arizona is actually better than Saint Louis,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: so that Arizona is actually a better team than their
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: record looks. Saint Louis is actually worse than their record looks.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: And I think it's mostly that Saint Louis's offense is
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: worse than what they had been doing earlier in the season.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: In Arizona, they're we just know, oh that their bullpen
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: is terrible, but there, but their offense is probably even,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: like maybe a little bit better than what people think.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: Detroit at Texas is the ESPN Sunday Night game.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: It is a pretty good game. It's an interesting game,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: but it might no longer be because Nathany.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: Evaldi was supposed to start. This is gonna be a
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: great pitching game. Pitching matchup. Man, It's Schoobale night. It
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: was gonna be Schooble against the Evaldi gonna be a
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: great pitching matchup. Evaldi has some sort of injury and
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: he's been scratched. Yeah, tightness in his back. He's gonna
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: have to go get some massages. Man, Maybe not the
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson style of massage or even the.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Justin Tucker style of massage.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: But man, that sucks because this looked like it was
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: gonna be an amazing pitching matchup in the night game,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: and now it's gonna be schooball against a Texas bullpend game.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: So that really kind of takes away a lot of
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: the the reasons why that game was gonna be the
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: ESPN Night Game.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Man, it kind of sucks.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: Now, though you do have two teams that are pretty
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: decent teams. They're both above five hundred teams in the AL.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Here Texas on the verge of actually sweeping Detroit in
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: what has been a very pitching heavy series, Texas.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: Winning two nothing and four to one.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Kumar Rocker our guy yesterday, Actually I did pitch well yesterday,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: which I mentioned. I leaned to Texas in that one yesterday.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: I didn't really think they were gonna win the first game.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: I thought it was a bounce back spot for Detroit.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit should win this game. Was scooble against
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: a bullpend game, but obviously that means the line got
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: absolutely skewed. It was gonna be Detroit minus one eight,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: which made it look like there might have been some
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: value taking Texas with Evaldi on the mound. But now
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: with Evaldi being scratched and it's gonna be Jake Latts
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: being the opener for Texas and what is going to
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: be a bullpend game most likely, Detroit is now up
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: to minus one ninety five on that line. So that's
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: how much EVOLVEDI being scratched effective line. It barely affected
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: that's total. That's oldal was sitting at seven juice to
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: the unders of basically six and a half, and now
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: it's kind and it is still sitting at seven juice
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: to the under.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: So to me, I think that total is actually too low.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: And I'll explain that in a minute.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: Eighty percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: coming in on Detroit, so Detroit is very public as well. Yeah,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: I do think Detroit will win this game. Yesterday, how
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: much bullpen usage do we have yesterday? I think we
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: did not have that much. Actually, Yeah, So the bullpens
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: are in pretty good shape. Here.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: We have two pretty good bullpens.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: So yes, I mean the bullpens do do make it
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: look good for an under obviously, Schooble versus the Evald,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: he looks like it should be an under. Schoolball, I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: mean he's still pitching tonight. It looks like it should
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: be an under, right. I mean he's excellent two point
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: two to three ERA point eight three whip. He's been great,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: even better on the road one point nine to seven
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He actually didn't pitch well in the All
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: Star Game. He gave up two runs, So then you
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: go bu bitch and Schooble actually the reason why the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: al gave up six runs, they gave up five of
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: the six. He gave up two runs on three hits
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: and one in and he did strike out too. But
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Schoolball not that good, and he wasn't that good in
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: the last start before the All Star Game, giving up
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: four and runs. But I believe school Ball has been
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: on the All Star team before because he's been really
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: good for a couple of years now, so maybe he
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: just didn't really care that much, didn't really totally pay
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: attention there. So on the one hand, I do think
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: he should bounce back from that. But he had a
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: bad start against Seattle going into the All Star Game,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: wasn't good in the All Star Game, and his numbers
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: against Texas, even though they're not a good offense, his
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: numbers aren't great against Texas in seventy six career bats,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: twenty three to six strike a walk ratio is good,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: but to seventy six average eight to eleven ops. Texas
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: actually been able to hit him a little bit. Tim
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: he got Shioka and Semi.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: And all of home runs off him, So.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: School Ball, I mean, this might be one of the
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: rare lineups that might actually be able to hit school
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: Ball a little bit. Now he's up against Lats, which
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if we need to handicap Lats.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's gonna be a bullpend game. Texas bullpen
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: is good, but their bullpen is obviously going to be
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: in the game earlier. So for those reasons, I do
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: actually think that the total is probably too low. Here
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: we do see fifty eight percent tickets, seventy two of
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: the astronaut coming in on the over.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: I could see this game going over. I mean school ballm.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: He obviously attracts a lot of the eyes here. This
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: has been a very, very low scoring series so far.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe this time it won't be. It is gonna be
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: the ESPN Night Game, though. You're probably gonna see pitchers
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: maybe come out with some fire in this game.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't know.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: I don't want to touch the game, but that's the
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: way that I think. And now we're gonna go on
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: to the best bets segment. Although I only have one today,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: I'm being very selective, but it is time, baby, the
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: best bet.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: I told you which game it is. If you know me,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: you probably already know what it is. It's the A's.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go full game on this, man, even though
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: I know we have to deal with a just awful
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: A's bullpen. Man, I mean, they have the worst bullpen
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: area in baseball. I understand that they have the worst
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: bullpen whip in baseball as well.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: What are we doing here?
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: Well, Cleveland's bullpen isn't much better, man, I mean, even
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: though their bullpen era is better, the whip is bad.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Three four kind of indicates.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: The Cleveland's bullpen is kind of skating on thin ice
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: and getting away with it. So I don't think Cleveland
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: is that good either. They're in the bottom several bullpens
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: as well here, so I don't love that.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm just looking to.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: Wait, this is only the al Why is I hate?
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: How this is doing that to me?
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: Man? All right? Now?
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: Now we have it here, so Cleveland, Yeah, they're still
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: in the bottom third though, right, So I don't like
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: either bullpens, even though yes, the A's bullpen is certainly worse.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: I think we counteract that. I think it's a wash
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: because the A's offense is actually way better looking at ops.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: The A's are actually eighth in the league in OPS,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: even though I know we're not in the A's hit
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: or from the park here. But of course it doesn't
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: matter which park you're in really, because it's gonna affect
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: both lineups. You know, both teams are playing in the
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: same stadium, so it doesn't really matter the A's or
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: eighth in ops. Cleveland is the third worst OPS in baseball.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: Terrible offense from Cleveland, so I think that does balance
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: out the bullpend disadvantage here.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the shot and go full game
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: on this one.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: If you want to go first five innings and just
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: go with the starting pitching. I think you could do
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: that as well. The market is heavily indicating on the A's.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: They flipped from a plus one thirty one underdog, which
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: there must have been a pitching change, because there's no
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: way Cleveland was that much of a favorite Oakland or
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: excuse me. The A's now at minus one oh nine.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: I saw them at plus one ten. I think you
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: can still get them in an underdog price out there
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: right now, But the real money seems to all be
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: coming in on the A's.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: It seems like one of the.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: Strongest market reads of the day, and I do agree
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: with that. Fifty nine percent of tickets around Cleveland, seventy
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash though coming in in the A's.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: I think this is a spot where Cleveland. I think
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: they may not be in the greatest form here.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: They'd won three games in a row prior to last night,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: losing to the A's yesterday. So Cleveland, when you have
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: a win streak snapped like that, especially if you're not
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: a very good team like Cleveland, I think Cleveland.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: Might be in for it here. Man.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: It could kind of hang you over into that next game,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: is what I mean to say. So When that happens, Man,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: you lose that win streak. It affect you in the
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: next game as well. Our guy, Nick Kurtz, the best
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: name in baseball. Man, don't say it too fast, or
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: don't try to say it three times in a row
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: really quick. Nick Kurtz hit a home run yesterday. Man,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: this A's offense is actually pretty good with him and
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: Rooker and lange Leers. They got some good hitters there.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: The A's completely dominated yesterday. They out hit Cleveland fourteen
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: to three, even though Cleveland had a two and nothing
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: lead early on Cleveland. Man, they are bad. Neither team
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: has a lot of their bullpend yesterday, so bullpend situation again.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: Rest Wise, it isn't much of a difference between the two,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: and really both bullpends aren't really that good.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: So even though the A's are worse, I.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Still think the A's if they have to, they can
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: use some of their better relievers here. Cleveland is actually
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: not even good at home. They're below five hundred at home.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: And the A's are actually better on the road than
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: they are at home. So we do get the A's
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: on the road here. Away from that terrible Sacramento Stadium,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: the A's are actually more respectable on the road at least,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: so we have that going for us as well. And
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: I like the starting pitching matchup with Jeffrey Springs pitching
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: for the A's.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: Who the hell is he?
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: Well, his numbers are actually good this year three point
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: nine three ERA, and you know, I like guys that
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: have whips under one point two. It's kind of a rarity,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: and his is one point one to eight now. So
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: Springs is actually doing well. And he's been better on
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: the road too, away from that bad ballpark in Sacramento
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: three point six to one road ERA, so he's been
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: better on the road. Yes, he's allowed too many home
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: runs nineteen home runs allowed, very bad. That's too many
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: home runs, but some of that is because he's pitching
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: in that horrible Sacramento stadium. Again, eleven of those home
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: runs have been at home, so he's allowed fewer on
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: the road at the very least.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: And he's pitching well going all the way back to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: the beginning of June.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every single
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: start in eight starts, is what that is. He had
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: a two point nine ERA in June with a twenty
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: six to five strike out walk ratio this month eleven
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: to four strike out walker racesio with a three ERA.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: The A's have actually.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: Won five of his last six starts, so they're winning
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: behind Springs. He's completely flying under the radar. He's only
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: walked one guy across his last two starts in twelve
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: and two thirds innings, only allowing nine hits in that span. Yes,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: alowing too many home runs. I know he's allowed five
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: home runs this month. He keeps allowing home runs. Got
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: to keep that in check there, But he alloted of
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: home run last time he faced Cleveland and that was
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: the only run he allowed, so even though that was
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: in Sacramento, one of his best starts of the season,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: he went seven and a third along three hits, one
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: on run against Cleveland, six strikeouts, one walk. So yes,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: that does mean Cleveland is familiar with them and they
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: should do better against him this next time out here.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: But his numbers overall against Cleveland are very good and
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: thirty seven at bats. He's on him to a one
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: to eighty nine batting average, little bit of a higher
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: seven or nine ops because he's allowed home runs. Again,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: the home run has been the problem to three straight guys.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: But I think we could deal with it, man, because again,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense isn't that good. The A's offense can help
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: them get over the hump here. Man, I still prefer
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: Spring to Gavin Williams, which I'm gonna talk about in
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: a minute, because I really hate guys that walk too
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: many guys, and that is what we're gonna get with
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: Gavin Williams here. So yeah, let's look at him now,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: Gavin Williams, don't trust him at all? Looks good, right,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: So the public might be thinking, oh, Cleveland's playing better
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: right now. Cleveland has been the better team over the A's,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: you know, the last many years. At this point, now
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: looks almost too easy to take Cleveland, right, especially at
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: the point where you're almost getting Cleveland as a home
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: underdog price. There's a reason again, like why do you
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: see the AA as a team with such a bad
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: record being almost a favorite on the road. There's a
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: reason why the oddsmakers put a line out like that. Man,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: They're not throwing money away, so it looks almost like
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: a trap line as well, where you'd want to you'd
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: be tempted to take the team that you that has
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: the you know more recent name recognition, the team that
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: got to them. I believe they were in the ALCS
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: last year. Right, Cleveland team that's been good recently, that
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: has the better record here. But I'm telling you that's
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: not the way to go. Cleveland has lost some of
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: the guys they had last year. And yeah, even though
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: you're gonna look at Williams to say is a three
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: point seventy that's good, his whip is way worse than
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: Springs one point four to three.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Whip, really bad whip. He's just walking too many guys.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: Man. Yes, he's been a little bit better at home
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: three point two nine Homie Ray, but I don't think
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: he's to be trusted at all.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: He had a twenty to thirteen Striggo walk RACEIO in June.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: Somehow managed to have a two point five seven ERA
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: in that span, and the start prior to that he
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: walks six guys. Actually, his whole season has been terrible
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: strigo walkwise. This month even worse fifteen to twelve strigo
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: walk race. Even though he's still limiting the damage, it's
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: been bad. Cleveland's offense has been so bad that they
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: have been losing every game, and he's pitched. They've lost
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: six of his last seven starts, which is the opposite
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: of what Springs has going for him. So we have
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: that trend working for us here as well. So Cleveland
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: has not been winning Williams games. His strigo walk rasio
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: on the season is abysmal ninety five to fifty seven.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: And he's not been that good with the home run
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: ball either. He's alloted fourteen on runs this season, so
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: that's not good either. He's allowed three this month, so
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: it's not like he's not allowing home runs. He's allowing
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: not that many hits, fewer than one hit per inning
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: pretty significantly. But man, that walk rate is so high
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: it's just bad. So I think we're gonna fade Williams
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: here man, and against the A's. I know they haven't
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: seen him, but I think he's totally fatable here man.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: The A's only have two guys that have seen him before. Yeah,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: they're one for six, often with no other stats, but still, Yeah,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity can only take you so far. Man, Williams
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: has been in the league for a while, and he's
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: not a pitcher that comes out and blows people away,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: and that fools a lot of guys. So we're gonna
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: go with the A's here. We're gonna go with the
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: market read. I think it is the strongest market read
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: of the day. A's on the money line. Hopefully you
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: can still get them into an underdog price, Zach.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you miss it, you can go back
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: and see me talking about the Royals, don't. I don't
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: even love the Royals in today's game either, man. I
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: mean they have one of the worst offenses that we've
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: ever seen him and this offense is so bad it
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: would be the worst in the league if the Rockies
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: weren't historic bad.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: So that's how bad the Royals offenses.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: And they're actually even worse at home in a fairly
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: picture friendly park. That's gonna do it for me today, man,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: Thanks guys for hanging out. Happy Sunday to everybody once again.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: My only play today is the Oakland A's money line,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: getting them as an underdog. Hopefully we go one for one,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: sweep the board, hopefully we get the win. Yeah, Happy Sunday.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: Everybody learned a toad on Twitter. I switched my Instagram
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: to learn to toad as well because I was trying
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: to get verified. But they won't verify unless you use
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: your actual name on your account. I don't know what
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: the fuck that is, so I guess I'm not gonna
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: get verified.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: But right now I.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: Am learned to toad on Instagram and I am posting
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: the better Off Dead content, so you can go check
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: that out. Better Off Dead also on the audio platforms,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: which I'm monetizing it, but I'm getting almost nothing coming
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: in from that, like we're getting no impressions right now,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: so hopefully people find it on audio. Get that going,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: and Covered in Yuke is going. You can find me
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: on YouTube with Covered in Yuke as well, and of
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: course better off Dead, Off Dead Better is also here
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: on YouTube. Yeah, uh, Covered in ucause my YUK YouTube channel.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: I am double posting now all my UT covers that
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: I'm putting up to Twitter, I'm putting them up on
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: YouTube as well. I'm probably gonna start dripping some. I'll
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: maybe not do as many, uh, because I was doing
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: like once one a day basically for a while on Twitter.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'll dial that back a little bit, do like
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: one a week or twy two a week or something,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: but drip some some onto the YouTube. So I might
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: be doing that like drip old ones, I mean, not
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: new ones, ones that I'm posted on Twitter in the
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: past that just aren't on YouTube because I wasn't posting
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: them on YouTube. Just start slowly dripping them onto YouTube
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: and start dripping them onto the patroon or getting some
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: Patreon supporters now patreon dot com, slash learn to toad
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: uh the bonus content that you get right now at
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: the higher tiers, you will get a Spotify stream with
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: the ukulele covers that uh that are going up on
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: Twitter and YouTube. So there's only one up there right now.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: I have a backlog. I'm gonna do the latest like
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: six that I have up there. Those are all gonna
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: be on it, and then everyone from then on will
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: be up there, so you can get that as well.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: And yeah, at the highest level you get prioritize ukulele
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: requests for me as well, and I might be doing
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: some live requests streams as well, maybe some specific for
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: patreons as well, so check that out. Thanks for all
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: your support guys and help me as a canceled man.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: I definitely appreciate everybody. I appreciate everybody helping out, everybody listening.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: Anything that you can do to help man, listen, subscribe,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: tell everybody about everything that I do. Rate you know, review, whatever, like, comment,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: Thanks everybody, Have a good Sunday and peace,