Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Looks For Off-Ramp After Threatening War Crimes + Trump’s Inner Circle Disowns Iran War

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Looks For Off-Ramp After Threatening War Crimes + Trump’s Inner Circle Disowns Iran War · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: vary and rates may vary. Well. Hello thereon, Welcome to
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: another episode of the Chuck Podcast, the April eighth edition.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: For me to say April eighth means something to me.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I'll let you guys figure out what that means. But
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: here we are it is. I am taping this on
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  Speaker 1: Tuesday before the expiration of Trump's self impost deadline, where
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: he is threatening to eradicate the entire Iranian civilization. This
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: is not hyperbolic words from me. This is just me
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: quoting his truth social post. It is one of those
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  Speaker 1: It's interesting with what he did. And I say this
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: because he's by the time you're hearing this, he's likely
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  Speaker 1: taken one of the exit ramps that are out there,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: either either talks or continuing. So he extends the deadline.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: He accepts the two week premise, or maybe it's a
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: two day premise, or maybe it's ongoing talks. Because he's
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: backed himself into a corner. I mean, he is. And
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I've used this metaphor below if you before, but if
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: you're a fan of the Blazing Saddles movie, he's the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: sheriff who pulls the gun on himself and he's like, hey,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: be careful, I might chew. And that's the equivalent of
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: what he did. But what's every You know, it's funny
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: every time Trump escalates his rheteric and we think, oh
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe he said that. And the fact,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I guess the good news is that we can still
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: be shocked by him right the day that we are
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: no longer shocked or surprised. I mean, it is, Oh,
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  Speaker 1: everybody gulped when they felt. I don't want to put
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: put words in everybody's mouth, but people that I've interacted
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: with the reaction in various circles, both super political circles
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and less political circles, are like, oh my god, what
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: is he saying? So the point is is that plenty
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: of people still found themselves shocked by the president's language
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: and the president's words, and can we just step back
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and say that's actually a good thing. You know, we
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: should hope that when an American president, speaking on the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: behalf of the American people that elected him, speaks in
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that way, that we take umbrage with it, we get
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: shocked by it, we're uncomfortable with it. Now, what's sad
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: is it feels like there were more everyday Americans who
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: were upset, perturbed, uncomfortable by what he said than actual
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: elected officials. It is funny, like this comment about eliminating
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  Speaker 1: a civilization. You know, really, I think and I count
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: myself among them who felt a bit numb. You're sort
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: of like, yeah, that's his predictable rhetoric. But you're like,
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  Speaker 1: good God, But I assume that the you know reaction
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: in the condemnation would be kind of muted, and it was.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, we've heard as of this taping, exactly two
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: elected Republicans have expressed their discomfort with this. One represents
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Texas's first congressional district. His name's Nathaniel Moran. You may
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: not have heard of him, many of you. He's not
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: somebody who tries to shove himself in front. And there's
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: your political theatrics members of Congress, and then there's your
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: those that, like, you know, just do the basic work.
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  Speaker 1: He strikes me as one of those because he's not
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: shoving himself in your face with his political theatrics. And
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: he called the president's comments abhorrent, and he goes I
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: wholeheartedly disagreed with comments about wiping out an entire civilization.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sorry he has said that because I think that
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  Speaker 1: distracts from what was an initially inappropriate mission. How we
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  Speaker 1: protect the lives of the innocent is just as important
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  Speaker 1: as how we engage the enemy. I'm sure Congressman Moran
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  Speaker 1: from Texas never thought he would have to lecture a
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  Speaker 1: Republican any president to say something like that, but I'm
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  Speaker 1: sure he assumed a Republican president would probably be more
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  Speaker 1: respectful of the military. Right. I say this not to
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  Speaker 1: stereotype anything, but this is the stare teotype that many
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  Speaker 1: on the right live in, and it is, you know, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: was very disturbing. Then there's Senator Murkowski, who won't be
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  Speaker 1: surprising that she speaks out in creditization. She's many times
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  Speaker 1: one of the few Republican senators that will do that.
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  Speaker 1: She's more of an independent these days than she is
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  Speaker 1: a Republican. But she wrote, the president's latest threat is
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  Speaker 1: an affront to the ideals of our nation. Excuse me,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: let me read this again. The president's latest threat is
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  Speaker 1: an affront to the ideals our nation has sought to
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  Speaker 1: uphold and promote around the world for nearly two hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty years. The comment cannot be excused away as
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  Speaker 1: an attempt to gain leverage and negotiations with Iran. So
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  Speaker 1: I think there are plenty of other elected Republicans that
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  Speaker 1: are just as outraged, and just as concerned, and just
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  Speaker 1: as disgusted by this comment as these two. Most of
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  Speaker 1: them have chosen not to say anything, Some perhaps out
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: of fear of political retribution. Some maybe they're rationalizing them
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: by saying we're in the middle of a war. I'll
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  Speaker 1: criticize them when we're done. I don't want to send
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: a mixed message to the military. But you know, when
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  Speaker 1: the President speaks like someone who's comfortable committing violations of
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  Speaker 1: the Geneva Conventions translation commit a war crime, I think
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  Speaker 1: it is the time you have to speak out, and
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: it is the time you have to say something. Because
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: our men and women in uniform took the same oath
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of office that elected senators and members of Congress stand,
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  Speaker 1: and they have to uphold the Constitution, and they represent
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  Speaker 1: the moral fabric of this nation in how they carry
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: out their duties. And many of them may be uncomfortable
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: carrying out an order that they believe is illegal or
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: unconstitution which is basically the same thing. And maybe they
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  Speaker 1: don't want to commit a war crime or fear that
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: they've been ordered to commit one. And you can say, well,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: there's technically no governing authority on this, because the United
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: States is not a signer to the International Criminal Corps.
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  Speaker 1: Don't we want to be the good guys? Aren't we
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  Speaker 1: the ones? I thought those that you know, it's the
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  Speaker 1: state sponsor of terrorism that doesn't care about rules of war.
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  Speaker 1: That's what I've been told by our leaders, and yet
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  Speaker 1: we are sounding and behaving like some two bit terrorist thug.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the only thing missing in Trump's statement was
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: him wearing a bag over his head and standing in
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  Speaker 1: front of a video camera making a threat to some
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: captured American. Reminded me of some Isis video back in
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  Speaker 1: the day, or those al Qaeda videos that Bin Laden
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  Speaker 1: used to release to create the illusion that he was
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  Speaker 1: more powerful than he actually was. I mean, it's sad
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  Speaker 1: and gross that you feel like our president's behaving like
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  Speaker 1: people that we thought were our enemies, or he's behaving
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  Speaker 1: worse and he's giving aid and comfort in propaganda to
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  Speaker 1: the supposed enemy. I mean, it is. The point is
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  Speaker 1: this is you know, it's funny. It's like I don't
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  Speaker 1: you know. And I'm not gonna sit here and say, ah,
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  Speaker 1: this is the one. This is the one that breaks
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  Speaker 1: the coalition, this is the one that fractures the coalition.
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  Speaker 1: But I can tell you the anecdotes I'm hearing all
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: day to day, whether it's from family members, whether it's
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: from non political friends. Everybody heard this comment. Everybody read
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: this comment, and a lot of people are who are
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  Speaker 1: uncomfortable with it, even amongst people that are his supporters.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: And anecdotes are are are worth just that they're an anecdote.
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  Speaker 1: They don't necessarily represent election results. They don't necessarily represent
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: a tea leaf fourth making a bet on Calshier, Palin
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  Speaker 1: market on. But it's notable. And as I've said to
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  Speaker 1: you before, you know, I think presidencies end before the
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  Speaker 1: presidents themselves know it. The public loses faith, public loses
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: confidence a lot sooner than the presidential term ends. And
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I can, like I said, pretty much every presidency ends
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: before January twentieth, of the of the of the month
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: after the election year, in some form or another. And
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: it's possible. This is this is the exclamation point and
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: sort of the we are no longer at the end
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: of the beginning of the Trump era. We are at
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the end of the Trump era. Doesn't
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: mean it isn't going to be messy and ugly as
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: it goes, but it's the fractures there. The other development
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: in the last few hours is the release of this
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: very juicy book excerpt from New York Times reporters Maggie
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Haberman and Jonathan Swan and the piece is basically how
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Trump got talked into the Iran War. The piece you
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: should read it. It's in the New York Times now
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: you should read a word for word. It is really
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: important and just one little observation. So they've got this
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: book coming out called Regime Change, essentially Trump, you know,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the Trump President, the Imperial Trump Presidency. I think it is.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: And it's funny about the excerpt is that it's so
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: clear Bob Woodward created a blueprint for all of us.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, and when I wrote my Obama book,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I would do this in a few you know, there's
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: a formula, right, You've got to when you recreate a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: scene that people of a conversation that's happening, you make
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: sure you place everybody in the seat and let give
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: people a visual of what they're seeing. And Woodward and
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Bernstein did this so well, and all the presidents made
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: and in the final days, and it's been a staple
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: of Woodward's books, and I could you know, and they're
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: not alone all of these books. Like I said in
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: my Obama book, I did it a few times. And
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  Speaker 1: it was done here by Haberman and Swan, and I
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: think it's more, it's a reminder that Bob Woodward created
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: a blueprint for writing presidential books, not necessarily writing in general,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: but certainly for writing for politics. But the most fascinating
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: thing about the excerpt is you basically come away with
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: there were only two people who thought this was a
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: good idea, bib Net Yahoo and Donald Trump. That's it.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: The story begins with a semi secret meeting with the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Israel coming in with this plan that
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: he believes can take out the entire Iranian regime, and
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: obviously he takes it. If he could do it on
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: his own, he wouldn't be coming to the President looking
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: for help, right. He knows he can't do it without
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the United States, so he wants to talk Trump into it.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: And Trump didn't need a lot of talking into it.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: He's itching for this one, and that's made clear in
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: this reporting, and it's been It's one thing he's been
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: consistent on. Yes, he ran on no wars, but he's
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: always been a bit more belligerent about Iran. Right. The
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: irresponsible decision to get out of the nuclear deal was
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: just one part obsession with just anything Obama was for.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: He had to be against so there was a little
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: bit of that, but the other part was he was
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: trying to force a confrontation. And then the last part
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: that matters probably more in all that he you know,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: it is a fact that the Iranians were trying to
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: assassinate him, and you know, this isn't just a made
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: up story. This was intelligence that was shared during the campaign.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: That's why there was actually there needed to be extra
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: security for him. But you know, whether it was him,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo and John Bolton who were basically fought was
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: against them by the Iranian regime and assassinations has always
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: been one of their asymmetric warfare devices. So a little
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: bit this is just personal revenge for him, which is
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: always a dangerous thing and a leader when they're motivated
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: by personal animosity rather than what's in the best interests
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: of the United States. Because let's just be honest, this
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: war is not in the best interests of the United States.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Getting rid of the Iranian regime may eventually be in
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the best interest in the United States, don't get me wrong,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: but this war of choice at this time, in this moment,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: has made all of us less safe, has made the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: world less safe, and has increased the likelihood of a
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: global recession, and that in itself has all sorts of
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: fallout that also makes us less safe, less secure. So
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: it's clearly a mistake. And the most fascinating thing about
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: this is how the entire excerpt in The Times about
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: how Trump got talked into this, all it does is
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: include points where advisors to Trump essentially tried to push
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: him away. Whether it's Marco Rubio who would not endorse
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: a war that involved regime change, who didn't think it
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: was possible, but he said, if the goal is to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: eradicate their missile system, maybe he could get behind that.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Or there was General Cain, chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: who took a decidedly different approach than Mark Millie did.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He chose not to
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: tell him whether it was a good idea or a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: bad idea. He just simply let him know what it
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: would take and how hard it would be. But he
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: never wanted to tell the President no. They all tried
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: to get around to yes. And you read this excerpt,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Trump's all ready on an island in his own west wind.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: It appears there's nobody around him, that thought this was
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: a good idea, not even his very pugnacious mouthpiece Stephen Chung.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: And I'm sure they're all sucking up to Trump right now,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: going I didn't leak it. You know this, trust me.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: This Haberman Swan piece is going to make Trump nuts.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: He is going to be obsessed with. And there is
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: one person who's going to be accused of leaking because
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the piece itself feels like it was the person who
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: comes out smelling the best. If you were to put
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: this in odor terms, it's Jadie Vance and he who
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: shaped it is usually, you know, with the person that
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: comes out the best in any excerpt is always going
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to get fingered as a source. And I don't want
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to play this game with Maggie and Jonathan because I
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: hated it when it was done to me. Your sources
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: are your sources. And as much as people think that
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: we take our sources and we'll beat Sweeten here, beat
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Sweeten there. You know it is what it is. Now
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: are you going to it is? You do your best?
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: You don't, you know? You do try to protect your sources.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: And in defense of Maggie and Jonathan on this one,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: and those that want to say oh, this was Vance.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: It's made clear that in the most important meeting where
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Trump's talked into this by net Yahoo, Vance is not
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: even in the room. So clearly they have another source
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: that isn't JD. Vance. But that isn't the way everybody
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: in Trump world is going to absorb this. It is
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: all about half the peace is about various ways that
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Vance thought this was a bad idea, didn't think this
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: would go well, thought that there was too high a risk,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: too high cost, et cetera. Some are going to read
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: that and say that's politically convenient for him. The piece
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: also notes that he would support the president whatever decision
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: he makes. Now, it now explains if you remember, and
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I emphasize this at the time, Jade Vance has always
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: gone out of the way that the president thought this
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: was the best course of action. He's never said he
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: endorsed this course of action, and Marco Rubio has been
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: very careful with his words. Frankly, everybody who has spoke
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: on behalf of this war really except for like guys
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: like Lindsay Graham, who does does who does seem like
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: the guy and the guy who rides the missile and
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: doctor Strangelove, you know, whoo right. I think I think
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Lindsay has gone full has gone gone gotten full on
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Doctor Strangelove there. But Trump is already on an island
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: on this war, completely even among his own staff. And
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it's everybody's name checked in there. Susie Wiles uncomfortable, Stephen
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Chung uncomfortable, Marco Ruby not for it all. Jd. Vance
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the most emphatic against General Kine, the head of the CIA,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: who basically said the presumptions that the Israelis were making
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: were bullshit. I think is the formal word he used.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: So what's striking about this piece is that I've been
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: concerned that the President didn't get enough of the negative side,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: and I still am not convinced that he did. But
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: this piece seems to indicate that plenty of folks raised
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: concerns about the unintended consequences of starting this. This episode
• 19:48
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  Speaker 1: absolutely embrace, so use that code. Net Yahoo made it
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: seem as if this would be easy. Taking out the
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Supreme Leader in his mind, would be the start of
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: regime change. And what was interesting is that apparently the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: first thing General Caine said to Trump when Trump asked
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: him to respond about the proposal after the Israelis left
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the room was will they do this all the time?
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: They overhype what they think they can do because they
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: desperately want to talk American presidents into doing this. What's
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: amazing about BBE is that Bbe's been doing this with
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: American presidents now for thirty odd years, where he's been
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: trying to convince an American president to basically be his wingman, right,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: be his military form to deal with Iran or to
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: deal with and every American president, you know, he really
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: always sort of pushes the envelope and pushes the envelope,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: and every American president until Donald Trumps has gotten to
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: a point where they basically have told BB, hey, f you, buddy,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I'll give you an anago. Bill Clinton after his first
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: meeting in June of ninety six, Clinton reportedly was just
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: stunned by Netta, whose brazen tone and apparently Clinton has
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: then to do his staff. After Netta, who delivered what
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Clinton felt was a condescending lecture in the Middle East
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: in the Oval Office, he said, who the fuck does
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: he think he is? Who's the fucking superpower here? That
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: was Bill Clinton to BB Natyah who now let me
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: go to George W. Bush. Bush reportedly viewed Natyah, who
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: as someone who was overly focused on his own political survival.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty fair assessment of him. After
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: a meeting with nat Yahoo was then just a finance minister,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Bush allegedly told his staff, I don't like it when
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: people come in here and try to tell me what
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I should think. Sounds familiar, right, Democratic president says it
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: about Bib, here's George W. Says it about Bibe. I
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: get The one difference is he didn't drop an F bomb.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama. The most famous quote attributed to him was
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: we all know that bbnat now, who's a pain in
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: the ass, And this was in one of the Woodward books,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Doubled Down. Obama apparently made this remark during a campaign
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: meeting in twenty twelve, but there was another other one
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: in twenty eleven with Nicholas Sarkoz, the then president of France,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: caught in a hot mic and Sarkoz said I can't
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: stand him. He's a liar, and Obama replied, you're tired
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: of him. I have to deal with him every day.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Third straight president that BB tried to talk into stuff
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: and wouldn't do it. Joe Biden, he is arguably has
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: the longest relationship with BB, goes back forty years. And
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: while he used to say in public, BB, I love you,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: but I don't agree with the damn thing you say,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: you'd say that in his private frustrations. But according to
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Woodward's book War, Biden got so frustrated in early twenty
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: twenty four with BB's conduct of the war that Biden
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: supposedly shouted at him BB, what the fuck You're a liar,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: after feeling as if BIB was telling him one thing
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: and doing another. The point is, this is not the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: first time that Bbe's gone to an American president presented
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: some drummed up intelligence creating a hack, this sort of
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: false scenario. Oh, this will be easy. We can take
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: him out here, take him out there. Right. He's been
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: trying to talk an American president to get more aggressive
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: going back ever since he first stepped foot into office
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in Israel. He just finally found one that would be
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: a sickaphan and or was in total alignment, or was
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: basically as risk averse. See as it's not Israel's economy,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I guess he's worried about and he and remember BB's
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: not worried about the American economy. I just think it's
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: notable that somehow we've had I just gave you examples
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: of four presidents, the four living ex presidents, who all
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: have one thing in common when it comes to dealing
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: with BB Netnah, he's a pain in the app and
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: he's always pushing, and you gotta you gotta tell him no,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: You gotta you gotta deal with him like a child.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Every once in a while, you gotta tell him no. Look,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: he's he His political power is derived from making Israelis
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: think he's the only one keeping them secure from the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: from from the Iranians or from whoever's trying to get Israel,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: and he is ruled by that fear. He has gotten
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: back into office by essentially saying that his political opponents
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: are not are not tough enough. I mean, he's he's
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: sort of I think in some ways BB embodies that
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Jack Nicholson character and a few good men. You may
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: not like me, you may not want me at your parties,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: but you want me on that wall. That sort of business.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: And there's clearly something to it, because here's a guy
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: who's simultaneously disliked by a majority of Israelis and yet
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: keeps finding his way back into power. Now they have
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: a parliamentary system and all these differferent ways he gets
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: in there. If this were a true you know, open
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: election democracy, you know, and every one person, one vote,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: without the whole parliamentary system, there Phoebe's not the leader
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: and it probably isn't that close. But I'll tell you
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: what this does. You want to talk about really poisoning
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: the American relationship with Israel, This is going to really
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: poison the relationship because what this story does is reinforces
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: the notion there's a lot of people who believe Israel
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: has been dictating American foreign policy for thirty five forty years.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Well that's not true. But Israel did dictate policy for
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: this foreign policy for this year. The Gulf States were
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: also on board too. We know the Saudis at this point,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Sadi's ande, I think now wish they had backed another horse,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: because they kind of know they've got an erratic guy here.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Whatever is going to happen, he's going to leave the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: place in worse shape than when things started. But the weakness,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: the fact that Trump is led around by the nose.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: He doesn't trust his own intelligence agencies. He trusts Israel's
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: intelligence agency more than he trusts his own. Now we
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: know actually that that is true, right because he has
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: an in his head that our intelligence agencies were out
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: to get him, because they were the ones that were saying, hey,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: guess what Putin's. Putin is trying to help Trump get
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: ellect it, which was true. What was unproven was whether
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: there was coordination. But what is an undisputed fact is
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: that Putin did interfere in our elections on behalf of
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But all of that part should be disturbing,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it won't be enough. It is funny that in some
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: ways the story, this New York Times story, in many
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: ways should be more explosive, but it will be the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: ridiculous rhetoric that he used that may have turned into
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: more of a tipping point for a lot of voters.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Now let's get back to reality here. He's in a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: box on this war. It is a huge box. He's
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: got to get the Straight open, and he's now in
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: a trap because at this point, control of the Strait
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: is more important than a nuclear weapon to this Iranian regime.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: So he's going to have to either kowtow to what's
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: remaining of this Iranian regime and acknowledge that they have
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: control over the world's economy twenty percent of the world's economy,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: really the whole they're holding the world economy hostage by
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: having controlled the Straight, or he puts in ground troops
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: because I know he wants other countries to do this,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: but hey, this is you know, he ran into the chin.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: He's the bull, went into the china shop, destroyed all
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the china, and once somehow everybody else to pay for it.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: It sucks that he's doing this in the name of
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: the United States. You know, we are no longer the
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: high ground. He is advocating war crimes, even if he
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't commit one, and just doing that is going to
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: fuel terrorist anger and hate at us for another generation
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: and it will turn into justification and rationale. Well, that
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: American president, he didn't care about rules of war. Like
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I said, the good news here and I always have
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: people already asking me, hey, help me, help me find
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: the good news in all of us. Good news is
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: that there is. I think the majority of Americans are
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: offended by this. If you follow the polling, they're talking
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: about how the unpopular this war is. It's not as
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: if he has brainwashed the public to think that this
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: is a good idea. And in a in a functioning democracy,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: and I still believe we're a functioning democracy. We express
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: our opinions at the ballot box. And I will tell
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: you this is you know I have told you good
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: gets better, bad gets worse. Well, we are in a
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: bad gets worse moment for him. I mean he is.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: He is turning a bad election cycle into a potentially
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: a catastrophic one for his party. The question is when
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: do Republicans fully see it. I think there's a bunch
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: of them that are nervos. I think the fact that
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: you when you read this piece and you see JD.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Vance running away from this issue as fast as he can, although,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: by the way, is sitting vice president you want to
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: talk about. If you're confused about whether America wears the
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: white hat of the black hat, I understand why you have,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: because a sitting vice president of the United States just went
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: to a country with a wanna be dictator in Victor Orbon,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: campaigned on behalf of this want to be dictator, Victor Orbon,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: a want to be dictator that has the support of
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, And is what does he do? He goes
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: on foreign soil campaigns for this undemocratic figure. Again, he
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: brags about Victor RoboN, brags that he is an illiberal democrat, right,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: an illiberal believer in democracy, meaning he doesn't believe in democracy.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: He believes in some form authoritarianism. He's rigging his elections
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: and trying to try to secure a win. He's probably
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: not going to do that. Chad's over there, the Vice
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: preside the United States, is trashing our allies in Europe.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Inserting himself again. I'm old enough to remember when Republicans
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: were disgusted when foreign leaders in Europe were essentially hoping
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: that we'd get a new president in twenty twenty. I
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: think Vance himself accused Zelensky of being a surrogate of
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the Biden campaign when he came over here and went
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: to I think it was a web munitions factory in Pennsylvania.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: So if you're offended by that, why do the same
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: thing in another country and using American prestige? The United
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: States is on the same side as putin in the
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Hungarian elections. That's not us finding common ground with a rival.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: That's our leader betraying small d democratic values and betraying
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: our values here in the United States of America. That's
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: a full on betrayal. And you know that story is
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: going to be, like you know, the eighteenth most important
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: story of the last twenty four hours, frankly understandably. So,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: like I said, the good news is, I think a
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: lot of people are outraged and uncomfortable. The bad news
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: is the next president's got a gigantic mestic cleanup, and
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: it's going to perhaps now be a generation before America
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: is trusted on the world stage. Look, we're the necessary country.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I just sat down with David Milliban, who's whose chair
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of the International Rescue Committee, you know, whose foundation was
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: to try to rescue people who were being systematically having
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: their rights taken away from them in Germany during the
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: rise of Hitler. And with America retreating from the world order,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: from leader of the of the world and refusing refugees,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: gutting us a I d no longer giving humanitarian aid
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: in the numbers that we've given. We're in this. He
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: called it the new world disorder. And it is in
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: disorder that strong supposed strong men like Putin and She
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: have the advantage because there are no rules, there are
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: no morals or ethics. It's just king of the jungle business.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: That's what Donald Trump wants to be. He wants to
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: be a king, a dictator, whatever you want to call it.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I think he wants to be a king. I can't.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: I have no respect for royalties, all right, I just
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I will. I can't. I think the whole thing is
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: a bunch of bullshit dressed up their dictatorships, dressed cosplaying. Okay,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: every monarch is just a dictator with a nice title.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: All right, there's benevolent dictators, all right. I think the
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: King of Jordan is a benevolent authoritarian leader. But let's
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: make no mistake, these are not small d democrats. So
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: I don't I sort of have I have so little
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: interest in the crown and any of that garbage. I'm sorry.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: I know some of people very close to me like
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: this stuff. I just think you're like, it's just some
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: sort of man you've read way too many Disney books
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: or something. I don't know. But the whole thing, it's
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: certainly culturally been interesting, and there's interesting history connected to
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: these various rulers. But let's remember that's why we revolted
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: from the king. That's why we decided to have the
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: people decide when we went to war, because we didn't
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: like it when these dictators dressed up as kings and
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: queens would drag their peasants to fight wars that they
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: decided they had to fight. That's why we thought it
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: best that if the people representing those that actually have
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: to fight the president's wars of choice ought to have
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: a say before they have to go fight that war
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: of choice. Anyway, here's what I'm hoping. I'm hoping you've
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: heard this monologue. Why do I say that, because if
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: the president follows through on his various threats that he's
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: made on social media, I have a feeling I'm retaping.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Will have already had to retape this, and you've heard
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: another monologue at this point. But he's going to take
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: one of the exit ramps, whether it's two weeks, two days,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: two hours, whatever it is. He's going to mess around
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the market a little bit, find it, but he's gonna
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: you know, the question is, can can he get a
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: deal that opens up the Strait without humiliating the United
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: States and our leadership and without empowering what's left of
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: this Iranian regime. Welcome to a box that he put himself,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and he literally said, I'm going to put myself in
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: a corner and then put bricks. It's not a box anymore.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: It's turning into a brick house. And I don't know
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: how he's going to get out of it. There are
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: it is bad option, A bad option, B bad option. See.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: The least of the bad options might be limited ground
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: troops to open up the Straight and use that as
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: much leverage as you can, but it probably means an
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: active military campaign. For months, not weeks, not days, and
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: that might be the best case scenario. All right, I
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: want to pivot a little bit. I want to talk
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: about something, talk about this. I'm covering up my address here.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: So there's a mailer that I just got this week.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: This is I've lived in the state of Virginia. This
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: is for that redistricting referendum. And it's just a little
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: what this is a just a truncated version of what
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I wrote about on substack. But this Washington posted a
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: poll about the redistricting referendum and with it the initial
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the first ratings of Abigail Spamberger's time as Governor's been
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: governor for about three months, a little less than that.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think she said one hundred days yet. And
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: if you recall a few times last year, I wondered, aloud,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I know I did it with Solissa, I said, boy,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I said, boy, you know, I don't. I don't envy
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Spaanberger having to start her term in a very partisan
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: way that the first thing she's got to deal with
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: is this redistricting agenda. I don't know if that's going
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: to go well. Well, guess what, it ain't going well.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: So the post does this poll, the yes on redistricting
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: is narrowly ahead. It's going to win, narrowly. It's fifty
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: two forty seven. It's going to win because Northern Virginia
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: is the most Trump resistant area of the country, because
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: most people here either are victims of Trump or seen
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the damage firsthand, maybe worked at the FDA and saw
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the crazy that came into there. So the point is
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: is that this area is just on fire about Trump
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: and how his presidency has just you know, brought a
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: wrecking ball in the wrong you know, I know some
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: people wanted a wrecking ball to Washington, but did it
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: in all the wrong ways. Literally wrecked the wrong buildings,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: you know, wrecked the wrong agencies, like you know, it
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: is the mentality might have been necessary, but it was,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: you know, all of the wrong targets. And so it's
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: going to pass. And the ad campaign smartly has stopped
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: putting Abigail Spamberger and Barack Obama as the spokespeople and
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: has gone back to making this about Trump, and it's
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: a more honest ad campaign. It's almost persuasive. Basically, they
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: started this, it's going to end up taking your rights away.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: So this is why we're doing this, it's at least
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: more honest than the messaging that had been there before.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: But it ain't going down well with voters. And you
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: see it in the approval ratings of Abigail spamberg Er.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: She's sitting at forty seven forty six. It is the
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: lowest job rating any Virginia governor has had in the
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: first six months in office since The Washington Post started
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: measuring this regularly, going back to George Allen's governorship in
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: ninety three, Jim Gilmour was more popular in ninety seven,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: after you know, you know, after getting elected in ninety seven,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Mark Warner after getting elected in oh one, Tim Kaine
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: after electing five, Bob McDonald after getting elected int o nine,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Terry mcauff after getting elected in thirteen, Ralph Northam after
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: getting elected in seventeen, Glenn Youngkin. Literally every single one
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: of her predecessors since George Allen all had a higher
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: approval rating. The fact of the matter is there's a
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: huge chunk of independent voters that certainly have ideological leanings,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: but don't like partisan garbage. They don't like the partisanship.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: And this is the slice of voters that I don't
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: think Democrats respect enough from their coalition. When Democrats have
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: succeeded in the Trump era, it's when they have been
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: the less partisan option, where they have been the quote
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: unquote enormies. They've been the one whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: This goes too far, that's extreme. And then this is
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: it's epitomized in one of the vote quotes from one
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: of the participants in the poll in the Washington Post
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: pole and he's supporting the referendum, but he said this,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: We're trying to do something wrong to get something right,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: and that bothers me. This is the swing voter in America.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: These are the voters that have been vacillating. They don't
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: like either party. They certainly have a predisposition of what
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: side of the aisle they'd probably liked in charge, and
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: they wanted slightly bigger government, slightly smaller government. But what
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: they really don't like is the partisan ship in the extremism.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: And how do we know this right? Donald Trump has
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: never won as an incumbent. Right, He's won in sixteen
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: and twenty four when he got to run against the system,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: when he had to be the man defend the system.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: The twenty eighteen midterms, in his twenty twenty reelection, and
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: now again here in twenty twenty six, voters are like, now,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: we don't like it, right, they don't want it. He's
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: two partisan. What didn't they like about Biden? He came
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: in he promised to govern one way like Spamberger, and
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: then he came in to me immediately was partisan and
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: it defined him in all the wrong ways. And that's
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: what's happening to her. And I feel for her in
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: this because literally there's one part of the' there's a
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: one chunk of voters who are going, wait a minute,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: you didn't campaign as this. You campaign sort of as
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a Democrat who was uncomfortable being a partisan. And then
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: you've got the party people who are like, hey, Governor Spamberger,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: you've got to lead here. You've got to get this
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: referendum over the finish line. Hence these mailers that I'm
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: sure she's had to pay for in the TV ad campaign,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: where it's just, you know, they really blew up her brand,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: and I think they burned up political capital of Barack
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Obama's unnecessarily, and I go back to the facts here,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: without doing a thing, Democrats are going to pick up
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: two seats in the Virginia map. If the old map
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: stays right now it's six'. Five there are two, seats
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: the first and the second that'll probably both flip in this,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: environment and maybe, another but definitely the first in the
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: second small chance of the of THE i think the old.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: FIFTH i Know democrats think they have a ten to one,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: map but let's say it ends up only nine to.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Two but let's say it is ten to. One so
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: you were going to have an eight to three without doing,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: anything and you're basically blowing up the brand of the,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: governor blowing up the brand of The Democratic party for two,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: seats losing all this high ground with these swing voters
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: that are exhausted for. PARTISANSHIP i know you've heard Me
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: rando about this, before but we now have data to
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: back up that this is exactly what's. Happened and this
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: is a. Reminder virginia is, blue but it ain't navy.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Blue it's very light. Blue it's bluish. Purple it's really Anti,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: trump but it is not necessarily Anti, republican but it
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: is Anti. Trump AND i think that's the. Voter and
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: this is Why i'm you know Why i'm convinced somebody
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: is going to break through in a third party candidacy
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: or an independent, candidacy because you're not gonna see voters
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: are going to get tired of, rewarding of punishing one
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: set of, partisans electing another set only to have them
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: governed two partisan lee and having to push them. Out and,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: again this is not about being. Centrist this is about
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: being so consumed with keeping power that you sort of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: take your eye off the, ball which is just keep
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: the trains running on time and just do what you
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: say you were going to, do lower costs and help
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: people live their. Lives that's all people wanted right. Now
• 47:22
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  Speaker 1: AND i also take questions and answer some. Pushback we
• 50:08
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  Speaker 1: history and just so you, know the next the next
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  Speaker 1: it's on this audio, feed but it's The dynastic feeds
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: both on. YouTube please subscribe, there circulating On. iHeartRadio it's
• 50:50
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• 50:53
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• 50:55
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• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Remember i'm not charging you anything for, this so you,
• 51:02
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• 51:16
  Speaker 1: top top to, test all, right top five. LIST i
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: have a little twist, today and the twist is, this
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: did you? Know here's a fun. Fact as you, Know
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: i'm a total elections. Nerd there are thirty six states
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: that are holding governor's races in twenty twenty six this campaign.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Year seventeen of those thirty six states have had the
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: same party hold the governorship for fifteen years or. More seventeen.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: States South dakota it's been forty seven years since A, democrat,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: right forty seven straight years Of. Republicans oregon is a
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: thirty nine straight years of democratic. Governorship idaho's at thirty,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: One texas thirty one years. Republican florida And nebraska are
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: both twenty seven years since the Last democratic. Governor, Alabama
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: georgia And South. Carolina it's been twenty three years since
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the Last democratic Governor New. York it's been nineteen years
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: since the Last republican Governor, California, Connecticut hawaii has been
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: fifteen years since the Last republican. Governor, Iowa, Ohio tennessee
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: And wyoming also it's been fifteen years since the Last democratic.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Governor so why AM i giving you all? This because
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: my top five lists this week's are the top five
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: states most likely to end their partisan one party Droughts
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: okay in twenty twenty, six it's possible none of these
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: seventeen states and their. Droughts in, fact you could, Argue
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: i'm looking at this list AND i think there's probably
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: right now only one state where you'd say it's even even,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: money and that'd Be. Iole So i've given away what
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: number one of state most likely of all the drought
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: this and obviously by election day it's sixteen, years, Right
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: so sixteen four terms are, longer. Right that means you've
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: had at least four terms or more four four year
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: terms or more of same party. Rule so the number
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: one state most likely to end it's drought in twenty
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: twenty six Is. Iowa rob saying we've talked about it.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Before you, know he's not the number one state most
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: likely to flip, overall but it's the number one most
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: likely to end a four term one party. Drought So
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: iowa number. One so number two on the list might
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: surprise some of, you but number two on this list
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: for me Is. Ohio Vivek ramaswami And Amy actin are
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: the two candidates trying to replace term Limit Republican Governor
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: mike De. Wine what's interesting about this. Race mike De
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: wine is formally Endorsed Vivic. Ramaswami Mike dewines chief health
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: advisor DURING covid Was Amy, acton who's going to be
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: The democratic. Nominee, now she was never really a partisan
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: actor until after she became THE covid czar Of, ohio
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: of Which Mike DeWine has nothing but great things to
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: say about. Her needless to, SAY covid, itself of the
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: protocols have been obviously very, controversial and that had its own,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: thing but it Drove Amy actin into politics a little.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: Bit last three Polls i've seen in this race have
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: had Act in. Ahead part of it IS i think
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: something's happening In. Ohio you've got just the overall weight
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: of being a National republican not easy Shared brown's on
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: the ticket. HAVE i Think ramaswami very so closely associated
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: with sort of the mag of, movement less popular today
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Than Republican party. Overall he's also associate With, doge which
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: is a very unpopular thing outside of Of republican primary.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Circles now he's been trying to. Pivot if you've Followed
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: i'm you, know this is one of my pet. Races
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: i'm just obsessed with. IT i Think ramaswami is. IS
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: i think he's got a ceiling of fifty two. Percent
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: he may, win BUT i don't think he gets more
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: than fifty one or fifty. Two but this is this
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: is one of THOSE i think it's it's one of
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: my early upset. SPECIALS I i think he's we'll, see you,
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: know either, Way ohio's going to do something it's not done,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: before whether it's elect the woman governor or elect a
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: person of color as. Governor it'll be certainly unique and.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Different BUT i do wonder If Ramis swami is going
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: to be carrying too Much trump. Baggage so he's number
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: two on that of most likely to. Flip number, THREE
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: i think you have to Put georgia in there. NOW
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: i think the The democratic. Primary, look both primaries are.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Crowded there's no there's there's somewhat of a front runner
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: on The democratic. Side it's Former atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: Bottoms but it's a pretty competitive. Race you have the
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: Former republican lieutenant governor who's become A democrat, running you,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: know so we shall see what happens. There The republican
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: primary is kind of a. Mess you have A trump
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: endorsed candidate who's the Sitting lieutenant, Governor Burt. Jones you
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: have this wealthy Businessman Rick jackson who's jumped in and
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: he just already seems like a more competent candidate Than Burt.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Jones but it's kind of a. MESS i think both
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: primaries are kind of a, mess and it's it's going to. Be,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Look george is a toss up, state AND i could
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: See Keisha Lance bottoms running with asof being pretty strong
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: on that. Front so we'll. See ALTHOUGH i Think jackson's
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: going to be a strong candidate If jackson ends up the.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Nominae AND i do wonder how much effort Does trump
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: make in trying Because jackson's trying to run as a
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: trumpy candidate. Himself so we'll. See So i'm gonna Put
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: georgia in the three. SPOT i think that's just going
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: to be a pure toss up race no matter what
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: on that. One so that's number, three And i'll be,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: honest the next two could easily be high single digit
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: victories by the incumbent. Party BUT i think they both
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: could be potential upsets. Too so in my four spot
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: is alib it's the open, Seat Tommy tupperville's the Likely republican,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: nominee And Doug, jones who was A senator for a
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: brief period of, time lost The senate seat To Tommy,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: tupperville is the Likely democratic. Nominee there's still some questions
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: about Whether Tommy tupperville meets the residency requirement because it's,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Look i've seen the advertisement while in Northwest florida Where
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Tommy tupperville talks about living In florida and sort of
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: it's one of these it's one of these beach channels
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: if you've ever been to one of these beach communities
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: that kind of have like a cable access channel that
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: just promotes the local area and there are these little local,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: celebrities and you, know being the former head Coach auburn
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: made him a semi local celebrity in The, payanhandle and
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: he's there ON tv talking about how he has a
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: home In florida and then you, know, Oops, look there
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: are no residency requirements to be A Us. Senator there
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: are residency requirement and state constitutions to be to be a.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Governor some of them are seven, years some five, years
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: and so there is some question of Whether tommy meets
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: the seven year threshold even though he serves six. Years there's,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: look the courts will probably side with him and it's
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: not going to be a. Problem but just being able
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: to play to use the issue, Right it's, like what's
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: what Tom stier's? Doing Eric, swaalwell does he even own
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: a place anywhere in his? District you, know it will
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: it will bother some. Voters wait a, minute you're not
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: even really living. Here you're just trying, to, like you,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: know hide across the border in a tax shelter state Like.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: FLORIDA i think it's A i think in the political
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: environment like, This look in a blue wave, environment there's
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: going to be some upsets and places you don't. Expect
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: but you've got to have viable candidates on the board to.
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: Win Doug jones is, Viable Tommy tupperville is. Vulnerable he's
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: not the strongest candidate they could. Have so that's number
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: four of ending ending this a four term or more.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Drought and then number Five. Texas i've talked About texas.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Before we've Had, gina you, know so The democratic nominee
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: on this podcast before the education issue is red hot out,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: there you throw The ken past in. It if he
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: ends up The republican nominee For, senate you have all
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: these cross, currents Disaffected republicans frustrated With, paxton and. All,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Look abbot has a gazillion dollars and you Know hosta does.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: NOT i expect this race to be surprisingly. Competitive it's Never,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: abbots you, Know abbitts Trump, Man abbits trying to be
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: the longest serving. Governor there's always the. Point the Reason
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: i'm highlighting this is that every state hits a fatigue
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: point with one party. Rule. Right we saw it In,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas we've seen. It you just hit a wall with
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: one party. RULE i think that's about to happen In.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: IOWA i think that's possible that that's one of the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: things that Powers amy acted In, ohio and it could
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: be what powers you. KNOW i think The alabama situation is.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: DIFFERENT i think That's topperville. Centric LIKE i don't think
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: it's a state that's tired Of republican, rule BUT i
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: could See tupperville not being everybody's you, know sort of
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: just coming across as just simply not knowledgeable enough to
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: do the. Job and you, know unlike being unlike the
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: last few years as a college football, coach where the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: rumor was he wasn't doing all the hard work anymore
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: of recruiting or being a part time. Senator governor's a
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: full time. Job governor's a real job in. Politics you
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: can kind of you can kind of video game your
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: video game away your life being a senator or A house.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Member governor's real, work and voters usually know. It but
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: number five would Be. Texas so to review of these
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: of the party drought states four terms or more where
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: one party has, dominated the five states most likely to break,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: that they're All. Democrats they're All democratic. Droughts in this,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: case there's really only One republican drought state that might
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: be competitive this year in the. General It's. Oregon just
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: man The democratic. Governors there's been a lot of angst,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: about particularly on the issue of crime and sort of
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: quality of life issues In, portland and you, Know democrats
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: basically keep getting by in the skin of their. Teeth
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: there was a really close cuminatory election a couple cycles
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: ago with the basketball, player former basketball Player Chris. Dudley
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: if you remember that. One it was very, competitive very.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: Close you had a weird three way race there that
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: that that almost So oregon is on the precipice of
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: something if The republicans find an electable. Candidate you, know
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: it's one of those THAT i Expect oregon to do
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: this four years from, now not there When trump is
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: in the review. MIRROR i do Think trump is a
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: is a tax on Any republican trying to win in
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: a blue. State. Right it is just a two to
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: five percentage point tax that is tough to overcome when
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: everything's got to go perfectly for you to pull that.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: Off so to review my five drought, States i'm most
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: likely to flip number One, Iowa number Two, ohio number Three,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: alabama excuse, me number Three, georgia number Four, alabama and
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: number Five. Texas Ask, chuck all, right it is question,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: time and we start With Jay New. York he, Writes,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Hey i've often wondered what presidential campaigning would look like
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: if the Electoral college were. Abolished we are so accustomed
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: to seeing the nominees appear only in a handful of
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: swing states between the end of the primaries and the general.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: Election would there be value in A democrat appearing in
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: big cities in saint blue states Or republican appearing in
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: rural areas of safe red, states and with swing states
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: out of the, picture would The american suburbs become the
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: new generic. BATTLEGROUND i simply cannot wrap my head around
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: what that political reality might look, like can. You well
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: it's funny you, ask because Take La. County trump received
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: one point one million votes out OF La, county a
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: state that he excused, me a county that he lost
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: by thirty. Points all, Right but if we're a popular,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: vote if you're in a popul right one point one
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: In La, county, now you're never going to see A
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: republican president campaign In La county in the in our current, system,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: right but in a popular vote. System let me Just
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: i'm going to read you off the number of states
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: That trump carried with fewer votes that he received In La, County,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Wyoming West, Virginia North, Dakota South, Dakota, Idaho, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Montana, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alaska. Utah,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: yeah that's quite a few. States SO i think this
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: is one of those things we're not a. FULLY i
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: THINK i think media markets would. MATTER i think you
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: would see things, LIKE i, know you, know you you
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: might take a riverboat ride down The mississippi so that
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: you could hit as you, know all these media ANY
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: i think you might actually see whistle stop. Tours you
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: might see bus, tours riverboat, tours you might see airplane
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: hangar stops. Throughout but very media market. Heavy but the,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: math you, KNOW i THINK i think it would be
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: something that would probably change a lot in the first
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: sort of three or four elections that we had with
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: the popular, vote so you, know it's one of. Those
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: but but you know that single this idea That republicans
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: wouldn't campaign in the, cities, actually oh, no, RIGHT a
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: large chunk of their vote and every you know is
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: actually comes from the, cities, right you, know these huge population,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: centers they're not ninety ten, democratic they're like sixty, forty sixty,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: five thirty. Five the question is Would democrats stop campaigning
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: in Rural you know a lot of rural parts Of
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: america wouldn't be campaigned. In, yes the suburbs would be
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: a Huge BUT i think what you're seeing is is
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: that you would probably have the top twenty five media
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: markets where you would do three stops a piece every
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: time you went, there, right you, know the main center
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: and maybe the two biggest suburbs in every one of
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: the top twenty five. Markets BUT i think that's what
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: you'd see some form in. THAT i think you'd see
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: a lot more attempts at identity politics in order to try,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: to you, know cover you, know church going, Members African american,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Voters spanish speaking, voters things like. That you'd have a
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: lot more national advertising than ever. Before so but, yeah you,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: know in some ways there Is the electoral college does
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: concentrate the campaign mind a little. Bit AND i still
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: think the better way to fix the electoral colleges to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: right size The house Of. Representatives so if we basically
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: had twice as many Many house, members the electoral college numerator,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: changes and then suddenly you wouldn't have this disparity between
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: the popular vote and the electoral college. Outcome second question
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: comes From Trip, North. Carolina hey love the. Podcast do
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: you think there's any Chance republicans will find a way
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: to Peach trump or remove them from? Office it's the
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: correct way to ask this. Question do you think there's
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: any Chance republicans will find a way to Impeach trump
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: or remove them from. Office Unless republicans want to do,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: it ain't happening. Right democrats may provide a majority of
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: the votes for, it but unless you have a Dozen
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: republican senators or, more probably closer to, eighteen you don't need.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Half BUT i think you kind of politically need half
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: The senate to do it, Right so you kind of
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: need twenty five to twenty. Six AND i don't think we're.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: There you, know just, look you could see what the
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: president's you, know when his job approval rating hits that thirty,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: five thirty, six thirty seven, percent he is only getting
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: His republican vote, right and his approval ratings somewhere between
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: eighty and eighty six percent Of republicans approve of his,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: job which is actually down, right we've been in the.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: NINETIES i think it's like ninety five percent Of democrats, disapprove,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: right and that's that's been a that's actually some of you,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: know what's weighing him. Down independents look more are like
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: sixty forty against, him and, so, Uh republican support would
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: have to probably Before i'd even entertain the, Idea i'd
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: have to start to see rank and File republican support
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: drop below seventy five percent for, Him and if we're saying,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: this you, know closer to seventy you, know even sixty
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: eight sixty nine, percent where his job approval Among republicans
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: is that, low then you start to realize, THAT i,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: mean that means he's you Have republicans will be actively
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: running against. Him but here's the. THING i don't know
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: if we're going to see A republican get elected by
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: running Against trump in twenty twenty. Six AND i don't
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: know if we're going to see A republican try to
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: run Against trump in twenty twenty. Six and the fact
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: that we're not even seeing an attempt to try to
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: do it tells me we're a long way away From
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: republicans being ready to essentially do the political death penalty For.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: TRUMP i, mean if they couldn't do it After january,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: six when are they going to do? It next question
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: comes From mike In, honolulu and he, writes hey appreciate
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: the running commentary regarding the rapidly involving events and with
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: the war In. Iran thank. You wondering, what if, any
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: is the connection Of secretary haigseth Outsting General Randy george
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: and the administration's confusing rhetoric AS i imagine a frantic
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: mess in the background trying to figure out better. Options,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: ALSO i appreciate your perspective and how far the administration
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: would push and destroying a run civilian infrastructure with allies
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: alienated and circumspect AND nato. Weekend is The Geneva convention
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: partially defunct as? Well let's say we violated The Geneva, Conventions,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: mike who other than a strongly worded letter from The
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: United nations that THE us might veto, anyway, RIGHT i
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: don't know where now our moral authority would be. GONE
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: i think you would have plenty Of european leaders if
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: we've really committed war crimes In, iran and you, know
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: like you KNOW i in between the start of this,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: podcast he officially took the exit ramp As i'm answering these,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: questions as as we kind of knew he, would because
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: he doesn't mean what he says until he, does, Right
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: and that's unfortunate that that's the world we have to live.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: In you can't really believe what the president says at
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: any given, moment and you're not sure when he's full of.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: Shit or, not but here we. Are BUT i do
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: worry that that that just his rhetoric has AND i
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: go WITH. NATO i don't think NATO's a functioning body
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: with the with The when The american president is not
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: supportive OF, nato it doesn't matter if we're technically in
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: the treaty or. Not he's going to do it his
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: best to make sure his administration wouldn't cooperate WITH. Nato so,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: YEAH i think The Geneva conventions are essentially basically a
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: paper with a set of. Suggestions i'm LIKE i, Said
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: i'm very worried Any american that gets, Kidnapped i'm very.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Worried next question comes From charles Good. Name any thoughts
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: on why The dems haven't taken any steps in court
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: to try and Stop trump's use of the war powers In? Iran,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: well all, right do you they think that the use
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: of forced legislation after nine to eleven gives him the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: authority he needs to combat quote? Terrorism they didn't object
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: To obama doing. So do they not want to tie
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: the hands of future democratic presidents having already seeded congressional
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: war powers to the executive or are they concerned about
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: whether they have standing to do So Speaker johnson certainly,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: won't and either Will Majority Leader thuon OR Vp vance
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: As president of The. Senate and then you end of go?
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: Utes did you say? Yutes? Sorry? Good not, myself you're
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: the OTHER u. RIGHT i believe you guys do it this,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: way and we do it this. Way SO i think
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: we're on the clock with war. POWERS i, think let's
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: see it sixty day, mark we're twenty days. Away if
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: you start doing the math, Here february twenty, eighth thirty
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: one days In, march let's count the twenty, eighth that's thirty.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: Two we're at, forty so we're twenty more. DAYS i
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: think we're twenty days away from this kind of. Action
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: it's possible there's an attempt to go to the. Courts
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: maybe some members Of congress do, that BUT i think
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: there's an appetite even among Some. REPUBLICANS i Highlighted John,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: Curtis senator From, utah A republican who basically he's, saying
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: the clock's the. Clock when the clock strikes at, sixty
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: you guys got to come and explain, yourselves and there's
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: got to be a vote before we give you any
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: supplemental things like. That SO i think this war is
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: unpopular enough right now That i'm Hopeful congress is going
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: to sort of, like you, know it's sort of like
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: wake from its decades long slumber on its constitutional. Authority,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: SORRY i was trying to sort of emulate somebody waking
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: up after a long. Hibernation so Count I'm i'm count
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: me as looking forward to what happens when when the
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: clock strikes sixty. Days next question comes From jim From Saint. Paul,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: Hey Chuck love the. Podcast frequently you mentioned The Middle
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: east borders and how they were established after the end
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: Of World War one and the end of The Ottoman.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: Empire has there ever been a real attempt to discuss
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: or start change the borders to be more practical or
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: to be more attuned to the people that live within those?
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Borders go Twins jim From Saint. Paul, so how's that
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: two stay solution, Going, JIM i, mean we've actually been
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: trying to redraw the borders in The Middle east arguably
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: since nineteen sixty. Seven at a, MINIMUM i think WE'RE
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: i think THAT i fear we've got a little rules
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: of the. Jungle Previous american presidents put a lot of
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: pressure on certain parts of The israeli government who were
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: pushing to the next parts of The West. BANK i
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: fear this president won't do, That and that is that's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: the NEXT i, think potential, big huge moment if that.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: HAPPENS i think we're a little ways away from. THERE i,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: hope you, know at some, point at some point there's
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: going to be new leadership In israel and we're going
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: to get you, KNOW I i but we'll. See but
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: that's the next sort of moment where there's going to
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: be a challenge of lines here, right whether it's the
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: where do the where where Do israel's borders end and?
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: Begin you, know is there going to be in a
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: two state, solution we'd be doing borders. Again is that
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: going to? Happen are we going to have More american
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: presidents that are pro two state solution or are we
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: going to have More american presidents that no longer have
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: an opinion on? It like this. One it had BEEN
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: us policy to be for a two state, solution but
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: it also had Been israeli policy that had been too state.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: Solution and NOW bb never talks about a two state solution. Anyway,
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: ANYWAY i just you're the, borders you, know they've been
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: The kurds would love to see them redrawn In. Iraq,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: right let's just SAY i think it's pretty unsettled these.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: Borders but let's not kid, ourselves, Right borders get. Redrawn
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: have been redrawn a lot over the last hundred. Years In,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: africa they've been redrawn a lot over the last hundred.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: Years In, europe they've been redrawn a lot over the
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: last hundred. Years In. Asia you, know we focus on
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: The Middle, east but in, fairness borders are more fungible
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: than we fully appreciate. Sometimes but, NO i don't, expect
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: LIKE i, said the two moments that could sort of
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: force this, issue or if one is If israel tries
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: to a Next West bank or if The kurds demand
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: their own territory basically A. Kurdistan all, right next question
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: comes From andre In. La, Anyways, Hey Chuck, avid listener
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: here with a twenty twenty eight presidential. Candidate No one
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: seems to be talking About Georgia Senator Rafaeo. Warnock he's
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: a reverend first and a senator. Second he's moderate from
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: the south and he has a rare ability to connect
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: with everyday, people kitchen table, issues a tone the country could.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Use right, Now i'll just say he's not the FIRST
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: Us senator to emerge as a compelling outsider candidate during
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: the final turn of an unpopular president facing economic anxiety
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: and an unpopular. War curious to hear your political, now
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: some whether this viable possibility best Regards. Andre, LOOK i
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: think if you if you went into a factory and,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: said what's the perfect ticket for The Democratic party in
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight of and you had to only choose
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: between elected officials in The United States senate or in governor's,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: Mansions AND i think my LITTLE ai experiment would come
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: up With Rafael warnock And Mark. Kelly a pastor in an. Astronaut,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: yes you, KNOW i think we could use a. Pastor
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: i've been Saying america needs a pastor for. PATRIOTISM i
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: don't think we know what it means to love this,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: country AND i think we could use somebody to help
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: us love our country warts and, all and that patriotism
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: sometimes is tough. Love sometimes it's criticizing her. Government that's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: a patriotic thing to. DO i think a pastor is you,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: KNOW I i you, know one of my favorite segments
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: that my Friend Kristen welker doesn't meet the. Press she's
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: done this a couple of. Times she's Had warnock And
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: Jim langford on. TOGETHER i think they've done it. Twice
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: they're the only two pastors in The. Senate one happens
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: to be a conservative From, oklahoma the other happens to
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: be a liberal From. Georgia and but they both really
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: are the types of pastors we all, want. Right they're
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: very they they they put the passion in compastor compassionate
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: however you want, to you, know if you want to
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: play make a play on words. There SO I I
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: i'm with. YOU i Think warnock is is a unique
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: political talent kind of had there's a little messy domestic,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: stuff you, know compared To, trump nothing's, messy, right so
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: it's not you, know and that percolated a little during
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: His senate. Campaigns again he's running against Herschel walker and
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: the trump, eras so none of, it none of it
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: hit that. Hard and and you, know just LIKE i,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: think you, know, uh these, DAYS i don't know if
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: any of how how much any of that, Matters But
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: I'm i'm with. You and and it does feel like
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: he could culturally meet the. Moment you, KNOW i think
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: there's something. Powerful he's not just any, pastor, Right Martin
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: Luther king's. CHURCH i think it's a pretty powerful. Place you,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: know that's where he preaches when he when he still. Preaches.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Uh and so THAT'S i, HAVE i. HAVE i share
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: your intrigued by. Him but it's interesting he hasn't made
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: too many overt attempts at you, know it's not like
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: He's he's done a few of These Democratic party dinners
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: in various, states but he's not certainly not as aggressive
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: as Your Wes moor's Your You're Andy basheer's Your Josh,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: shapiro's YOUR. Jb, pritzker's, Right Davin. Newsom's But i'm with,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: you and he certainly is going to be if he
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: just decides not to, Run he's going to be on
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: everybody short. List you. Know, LOOK i THINK i think
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: Both georgia's senators and Both arizona senators are going to
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: be four of the sort of the top. Eight you,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: know most likely you know that if you were to,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: say give me you have those four or the field
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: of who's going to be at one of these four
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: will be on the national ticket either in slot one
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: or slot, two or you take the. Field i'd take
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: those four Between, Diego Kelly warnock and As. Off one
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: of those four is going to be on the national
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: ticket in twenty. Eight make that A colchi Bet. Andre
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: next question comes From susan In, Keene New, hampshire and she, Writes,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: HEY i love your podcast and learn something new every
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: TIME i. Listen thanks for your insightful, analysis no, questions
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: just a comment about The. Packers i'm a sixty eight
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: year old grandmother who grew up In, Barry, vermont AND i,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: too am a Lifelong packers fan thanks to my, dad
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: who loved the boys In green And. Gold my husband
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: grew up in Suburban Saint louis and became A packers
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: fan thanks to his. Dad our grown up children are
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: also Lifelong packers, fans and now our granddaughters are learning
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: to love The packers. Too so just to shout out
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: to dads like yours in mine and my husbands who
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: inspire their kids to love the team so they. Love
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: susan h And, King New. Hampshire, susan that's, awesome thanks
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: for sending that. OUT i got to make sure my,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: boy here's that, too and you, know and there's just
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: let's be, honest we all feel a little bit better
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: about ourselves that we're fans of the team that are
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: owned by the, fans, Right there's something about the community
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: ownership of The packers that has always made me feel
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: a little extra proud to be A packers. Fan so take.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: That take. That let's say you're In, Keen New. Hampshire take,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: That pats, fans all. Right next, Question ASPEN. M i
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: don't think you're writing From. Aspen or maybe it IS
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: m From, aspen or It's aspen. M, Hey, chuck tensions
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: with THE ran are. Escalating what does this mean for the,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: economy businesses On american? Soil, well, any, look here's the
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: thing that you learn about the energy. Markets. Everything if
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: the price of energy goes, up the price of everything goes,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: up everything and everybody starts adding. Surcharges transportation charges go,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: up so then deliveries start to, rise everything goes. Up
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: you also will have supply chain, issues especially if we have.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: Disruptions you, know we'll see how open the strait actually.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Is right for two, weeks we'll see how this goes
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: but it's, uh that's the scary thing about these. Things
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: there's not a business it doesn't, touch there is not
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: a bad and, oh by the, way this increases the
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: cost of certain investments in THE ai industry. Too the
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: cost of energy goes. Up then the cost of energy
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: goes up for, everything including how much it costs THESE
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: ai businesses to use the massive amount of computer technology
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: that they. Need and then, finally last question for the
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: day comes From joshua be it's also a twenty twenty eight.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: Question could a southern dam Like Andy bsher Or John
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: ossoft Put florida back into plane twenty? EIGHT i don't
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: think so. YET i do think that there's been when
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: you look at the population increases in the state where
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: they've come, from they've they've they've gone into more conservative.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: Areas SO i think we've got a ways to go
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: BEFORE i think it's more likely that a southern dam
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: LIKE i actually Think mississippi's more likely to flip in
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: the electoral college Before. Florida at this, POINT i think
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: it's more cost. Effective BUT i do think if you
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: had a Particularly Andy, basheer that there are sort of
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: sort of centrist white Suburban democrats or white Suburban republicans excuse,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: me who are not comtable with THE maga. World who
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: And Andy basher would be the type Of democrat they
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: could they could be. With you, Know florida is not
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: a clean southern state. CULTURALLY i think Culturally bashir could
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: match the culture Of mississippi in some. Ways AND i
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: also don't know of asof necessarily could could could do,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: that SO i could See bashir. Helping, Really LIKE i,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: SAID i Think mississippi is more likely to to to
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: get more competitive Than florida in the. Short, look let's
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: see what happens with The latino vote in twenty, six
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: AND i might revise my. Answer if the next governor
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: Of florida wins by less than five, points THEN i
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: might revive my answer and, say, huh maybe it's in.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: Play but let's see what that margin is first before
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: we start fully Bringing florida back into the battle. Round all, Right,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: well crisis. AVERTED i guess it's kind of. Nice when
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: we started, this we weren't one hundred percent, sure and
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: now WHEN i ended, this we know for. Sure but
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: that's life in The trump. Era it IS i always say.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: This every day is like riding a roller, Coaster and
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: just like a roller, coaster you get off in the
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: same place you get. On you may go topsy, turvy
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: you may go upside, down you may go all over the.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: Place but you know what you don't. Do you don't
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: make any, progress and you don't move, forward and sometimes
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: you'll wobble. Backwards with, That i'll see in twenty four.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: Hours