Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 8

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 8 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
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  Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one
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  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope
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  Speaker 1: and why four seven three six nine. In York, Tennessee,
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  Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight nine nine called one eight
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  Speaker 1: or visit www Dot one gambler dot net in West Virginia.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment, Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my co hosts, my bff, my companion,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: my compadre every episode Professional Better Simon Hunter. We are
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: on the eves, the eves of the Phillies playing the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Asters in the World series. It's a week from right now.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're gonna be in person together. We can
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: we tell the fans where dude, let's talk about it.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: We got it. A week from right now. A week
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: from right now, me you Matt Mitt show. We will
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: be descending on Lexington, Kentucky Thursday night. We're gonna hang
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: out with our friends Stucky to co host of the
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Action Network NFL podcast with Raybond, which will reference in
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: the show. Then we'll be doing a live podcast. We're
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: super excited. We'll give more details about how people in
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the area can attend as we get closer and as
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: we get them. But yeah, we'll be together. My man.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I can't wait. So I love it. I'm injocutingly Chad
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the whole time. How we haven't been letting anyone know
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: that we're going there, And I just realized it's only
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a week away. We're gonna get to this place. I
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: have a live showing. Two people are gonna be there,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: which wouldn't be the worst thing, too loyal fans show up.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: But by listen to me. Do you know how many
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: times I've done book signings where there can be two
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: hundred and literally one There was one book signing that
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I did for the book I did about the Steelers
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys, and I co wrote it with somebody,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: and look, that was a best seller, one of the
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: four of the seven books I've written. But we did
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: a book signing in Pittsburgh. There were two authors there,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: one guest. You never don't know what's gonna happen live events.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That's what makes them exciting. You can be completely surprised
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: or you can be completely tickled with sadness. I'm sure
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: you had a month's notice to all these people before
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: you went to these books signings. I'm just don't feel bad, peop.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: If you can't make it the electings end, we're giving
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you a week notice. I'm sure. I mean Chad will
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: do other live events, will meet people. I know people
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: always ask like can we get a drinks and meeting
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: you guys. We'll figure something out. This is more like
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: this is about the volume, right, So this is through
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the volume. This is where we're all going there. So
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitch once lets everyone know. The Favorites episodes will
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: be done as normal. We'll still be putting out the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: show Thursday Friday morning. Hey, thanks Chad and Simon. I'll
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: jump in here for the logistics. So next week Chad,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Simon and I are heading to Lexington, Kentucky for the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Breeders Cup. Here's the deal with the schedule for the show. Tuesday,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: no changes. Will release the show like we always do
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. That show will also record
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: live on AMP just after one thirty pm in the afternoon.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Then on Thursday, we're all gonna fly to Lexington. We
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: will record together in some hotel room. That again, the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: podcast version exactly the same, will come out late Thursday
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: into Friday morning, same as always. That show will also
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: release live on AMP to PM Eastern time. That would
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: be my guest right now. Then we'll have a bonus
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: podcast episode that will record in person in Lexington for
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup will cover NFL Stuff, World Series Stuff.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Breeders Cup Stuff will record that and then release it
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: immediately upon completion. Should be somewhere around noon Eastern next
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: week if you don't care about AMP podcast will have
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: its normal episode out late Tuesday into Wednesday, late Thursday
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: into Friday, and a bonus episode Friday afternoon from Lexington,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So that's all you need to know if you're just
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: a podcast listener, will have a Wednesday morning, a Friday morning,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: and a Friday after neon bonus episode. Doing doing a
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: live show, obviously, we'll be able to meet some people
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: in the local area. I think we'll be pretty cool
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: to meet actual fans because for the most part I've
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: literally had I don't know, I would say eighty interactions
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: seventy interactions with fans of the show, just one one
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: bad egg out of all of it, and to me,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good, pretty good numbers to start this thing
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: off with. Speaking of pretty good numbers, we should get
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: to the shows we gave. We gotta finalize our final five.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: We gotta give a big ball better the week. We
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: gotta do some scooch Roulette. We'll probably do a money
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: line round Robin Parla. Not probably, we will, but first
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: before we get to anything, we gotta do surf cos Hello,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking somebody say? This is of course,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: when we get some feedback from the professional betters who
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: listen to the show and they give us their take
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: on what we got right and what we got wrong
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: from the previous episode. Simon, what are people saying? I
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: feel like it was again this isn't gonna help, but
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I guess our live listeners, so I'll just be brief.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I just gonna believe how many guys like the Bucks tonight. Um,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: it feels like they're just betting a spot and trying
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: to be sharper than they're sharp. It's just I don't
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: get the reason behind it. But that was one of
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: the bigger calls I got, and I just told them simply,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: there's no no world Me and Chad we're gonna have
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: a bocks in our contest and I got great spot,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: but I just can't do it. So when they agreed
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: on us with um that I think you've come around
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: on it was the Cowboys again. They logged they talked
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: to us about it last week. Mean Chad or on
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  Speaker 1: the other side. Look, we didn't play the lines of
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the contest. I think this week we're gonna do a
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: big spread. It's looking like the Cowboys like I like
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: the matchup, Chad, Chad loves loves watching videos of people celebrated.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Locker room are getting mad about it, which I love
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: about old man Chad. Well, listen that the what you're
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: referencing is of course we talked about. Listen as soon
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: as we saw that Cowboys Bears line, we both agreed
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys were the right side. And then of course
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I'm on the social media, I follow the Bears everywhere,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: and there is a celebration from the locker room. You
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: had talked about what the Bears were going to be
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: doing that after that game on Monday night, and of
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: course there was a celebration in the locker room. I
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: didn't even watch the whole thing. I just slacked you
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell. I'm like, fading the Bears. That was it.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I sent you the link and the fade the Bears.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I'm fading the Bears. I'm with you. So I knew
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: we were had a couple of calls of guys back
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: on that one because I'm starting to see a trend,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a trend here of just them
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: behind the dip on Dallas, right, I think Dallas, they're
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: clearly really good. Like there's three or four teams NFC
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: that are just performing really well. I mean, there's no
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: denying at this point. The Cowboys have an incredible defense.
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  Speaker 1: So I wasn't surprised getting that call again. We'll break
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: that down, mooards you go along here. The one they
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: want to stay away from, which I still think I like. Okay, Um,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: it was Vegas. They see it as a good spot
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: for this Saints team. They think they're undervalued. Um, can't
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: talk to me out that one again. We'll talk more
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: about that as we go along here. But just surprising,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: surprising here that so many guys like the Saints in
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  Speaker 1: that spot. And then the one we have to take
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: apparently we can't not take chat Houston. We we we
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: thought that line was fishy, we thought it stunk a little.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: We said, wait, maybe a better get some points back
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  Speaker 1: on it. It's gone for one and a half up
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  Speaker 1: to two and a half. Um Man again, that might
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  Speaker 1: be and it might be our b B B B
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  Speaker 1: Bed of the week. Um Man, that is. I just
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: couldn't believe it when they kept saying, so there's many
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: other options on the board, you really love that one.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: It wasn't just like one or two professionals. It was
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: just about every guy talked to this past two days. So, um,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: that's definitely we're gonna to dive into more because I
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: would love to hear you're out with that one. So
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: that have coming out of the call. The most confident
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: pick I felt was the Cowboys. Didn't hear much love,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: um for our Cleveland picks Price. I think guys are
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: just scared to get in front of Joe Burrower right
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: now because he's playing so hot. And Uh, didn't hear
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: much love for the Jets. I think guys are like you,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: they're like ready to get off the Jets training here.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So just an interesting week, a lot of pros because
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: there's so many home dogs home divisional dogs, which again
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: it's just very profitable to take in these positions. It's
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: really interesting, um, that you say that about the Texans,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: because I'm starting to fall in love with the Texans here,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and I know we fall in love with the Texans
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: every single week. Um, but this is line enough to
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: be a really good spot, so we can we can
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: get into that for sure. UM, let's go down the
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: list here because there's a couple other games that I
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: want to that I want to get to. I agree
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: with the wise guys who are coming in and saying
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: they don't like the Jets. Um, it makes me nervous.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to find the logic. There's two sides of
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: the coin here. Are you going against the team that
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: are you going with with the trend of playing the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: team that got blown out on prime time and fading
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the team that's on a hot streak that everybody is
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: falling in love with, or do you play the team
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: that is the home dog in a divisional matchup? Those
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: are the signals that were battling against and it ends
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: up being which one do you favor more? And the
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: reason I'm having a hard time is because these are
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: all the things that I look for at one time
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: playing against each other I look forward to. I think
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: the big thing that kept getting brought to me was
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: just all the Belichick. The Belichick trends first, that Jets team, Um,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: they have had their number for all twenty years. He's
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: been in New England for some reason. They just even
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: when the Jets were good, they made all those AFC
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Championship runs. I know they did beat the Patriots one
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: of those runs, but I think the Hris won the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: division every year that that happened. Again, the Patriots have
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: just played well against him, Belichick. He's twelve and oh
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: right now against them last twelve times they played. I'm
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: trying to throw all that stuff out because I'm trying
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: to think this is the new Jets error, like they say,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: the same old Jets him they got, they got the
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: players on this team. Um, it's it is brutal. Though
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: when you think about this is the time to fade
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: the Jets. I think that's where these pros are, right,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Like Chad just said, they're on four straight wins, four
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: straight covers, all his underdogs until last week, right, they
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: flipped to be a favorite. But I just think they're
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: still just being devalued by the public. Like the public
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: is coming and they bet the Patriots. Again, the pros
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: weren't saying they're betting the Patriots. They're just saying they're
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: not touching the Jets. I feel like that's a bad
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: spot to take them. So I don't know nothing really change.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I already did a teaser with them the Bucks because
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: we talked about on Tuesday. Bucks, you could have teased
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: him up the seven and a half. That was a
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: good number. The same thing with the Jets, Like I
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: probably should have waited, right the Jets are now up
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to two and a half or one and a half,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: But I just was like, you know it, I'll take
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: up the seven and a half. Matt Jones looks broken.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So they can keep saying all these trends, all these
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: things they want. I try to always take in all
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: this stuff, but I also have to trust my numbers
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: and trust this Jets team and the fact that they've
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: just been covering for me. They've been winning for me
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: and for the same things I like about him. Nothing's changed,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Like their defense is really good. Going up against a
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: team that's one dimension on right now, all you gotta
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: do is stop the run of the Patriots. You want again,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: This sounds crazy to say you want Matt Jones throwing
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the ball. He has been atrocious this year every time
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: he drops back. So maybe me and Chat will have
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: it in our contest, right, Maybe that that's how what
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: we'll do again. Like last week, we'll just stay away
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: from it. But nothing changed from me on the Jets team,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: even though I know you're right, like this is me
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: staying on too long. I just I'm just playing the number.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: And it's just like, who the hell are the Patriots
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: two and a half against the Jets? Like the Patriots
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: are we sure the Patriots are good? Right? Like That's
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: why I had to keep asking myself remember when they
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: played Green Bead with Zappi and like, yeah, they probably
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: should have won that game, but they didn't, and Green
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Bay looks terrible. And then they beat up Cleveland, which
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Cleveland doesn't look like the best team.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So they're just I'm just I'm just a little weary
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: of this New England team, where this Jets team they've
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: been smacking everyone they've played, like ever since time in
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Miami game, they've just been bullying these teams. So I
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: just feel like the Jets identity is more more tangible
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: to me right now than saying the New England Patriots
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: should just win this game because Belichick is twelve and
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: oh against the Jets number one. I've never seen such
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: concern on your face when we've talked about a game
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: you seem so conflicted because you believe in your heart
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: that the Jets are the right side. But I know,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: how seriously would you take the opinion of other professional
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: betters and it is it is killing you right now
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: because it should be an auto player. I just don't
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: get it, and like, I can't to these guys if
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: it hits. But I'm not going to do that because
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I try to be a pro. But geez, it feels
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: like we're missing one here. Uh well, look it, there's
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think we can put this in the contest
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: for a couple of reasons. I think there's way too
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: many conflicting signals to feel, you know, if we if
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: we if the contest is a reflection of our confidence
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: level in games, I don't think we have a confidence
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: level with the Jets that that will be higher than
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: five other games. Like there are four games that I've
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: squared that we didn't even put on the list on
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Tuesday when we spoke. But I feel better about the Jets,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: all right. So the other game that we talked about,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: and I kind of want to take this off right now,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is the Falcons minus four and a half. So we
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: believed betting the Falcons and minus four and a half.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: It was time to get back on the Falcons. Were
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: we bet the Falcons at plus six last week against
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the Bengals didn't work out plus six and a half.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: It was peak Falcons. We were wrong. We knew we
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: were stepping into it. This week, we got back on
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the Falcons right away. I am very concerned about their
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: defensive secondary and that hey, they can't get pressure and
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: be they can't cover anybody. Now, Um, I'm not so
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: concerned about, you know, the Panthers beating them. I just
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: feel like, is my confidence level high enough on the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Falcons that I think this number is right compared to
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: other games that I like a little more. Okay, I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: mean that's fair. Again, it's two divisional it's a divisional
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: game between two teams are just aren't that good. So
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I agree with you, you you probably should take the points there.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I just think such an easy spot to fake Carolina
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: and such a letdown spot after such a big win,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: so completely that the injury to the injury to yes,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: who's an all Pro corner back to them, that's a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: big deal. We talked about it last week. That was
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a huge deal against the Bengals, so I'll ride with
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: you on that, right. I could stay away from that
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: one because there are a decent amount of other games
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I like to this week, uh Lions plus three and
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a half. Still love him, love him more than I
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: ever have. I've been tracking DeAndre Swift all week, full practice,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: not on the injury list, Mamra st Brown expected back.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: They're playing um at home. It's a bilow Sell high
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. Everything about this to me screams Detroit
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: rock City. Hello Detroit. We'll buy and I'll blame Chad
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: if it doesn't win. And of course I wanna be
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: on this one too. I'm just Chad knows. I'm fearful
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: of this dank gamble thing. Man, I do not like
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: what I've seen from Detroit these last couple of weeks.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: They started out so well. I mean, the offense was incredible.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I know they had a bunch of injuries and that's
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: what really slowed them down. But man, it's just bad
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: vibes right now with a team that again, people don't
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: get it. If you're not winning, that's gonna take a
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: toll on you. And it's been a lot of years.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: A lot of guys plouncer Troy team have not been
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: last year and this year included, so this has gotta
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: be everything game. That's why I'll rod with Chat on
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: it like again, this is this feels like this should
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: be it for Dan Campbell if they can't win this one.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: But I've I don't know what to make of it. Um,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: good number. Play the three and a half. We played
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: it every time, but Detroit that got to show it here.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Um again, i'mant Brown wo'd be great if he's back.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I think Chad nailed it. The Swift that's the big
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: deal to me. He is the game changer for them.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: We've seen what they've been like without him, so they
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: desperately need Swift back and at three and a half,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that's great value. Um. I believe the lines will be
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: in our money line round robin underdog of course. Uh
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about the Seahawks. We haven't been
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: at minus three? Are they one of our five? Most confident? Uh?
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Probably not, just because of the Giants are Giants are daddy?
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Giants are six and one eight ts this season. In Chat,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I think our own five picking against them, So yeah,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: that's the one one of you I'll stay off. But
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: if it's two and a half in the contest. Gotta
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: be tempting. Yeah, exactly, that's gonna really tempting. Taking a
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: short favorite there in a game that should land on
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: three like that feels like a good number. The Giants
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: are gonna be down ten. Daniel Jones will throw a touchdown,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: the will somehow cover that three and a half three,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: just because that's what the Giants have done all year.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: So again, the luck metrics, I love them, follow them.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: They're the number one luckiest team in football right now.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: It's it's it's incredible what they've done with the talent
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: they have. But yeah, two and a half again, me
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: and Chad, we'll have a tough decision on Sunday to
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: make with the Seahawks are sitting there in contest, all right.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: The last one on our list from the other day,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: it's the Simon says we bet at Brown's plus three
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's now a three and a half. Yeah,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: which we said that that was gonna happen. So what
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: is the trepidation here? I mean, I still love it.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: I just I was shocked to know their pros are
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: on it. I think it's the Joe Burrow effect. Though
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the guy is on a little bit of a heater
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: right now. Right they started out really slow. He's kind
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of put it together and they've been beating up on
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: bad teams. Cleveland is viewed is a very bad team. Um.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: I had a couple of people reach out about d
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: v o A. I'm the wrong guy. I hate d
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: v o A. I'm the biggest naysayer of d o A.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: It's just the lazy man stat um. Again, this Bengals
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: team last year, d v o A, they were like
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: twenty they went to the Super Bowl. Dv A don't
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: mean shit. It's just a nice little parameter where it's like, yeah,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: if I have a team that's the number one d
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: v o A defense going against the twenty nine d
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: b o A offense, sure that's meaningful. Okay, that's gonna matter,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: But other stuff like that doesn't really matter to me,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: especially when they're going off numbers of seven weeks in
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: a dd o A. It's like based off matchup schemes,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks. A lot of stuff can get skewed that way.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: So that was the biggest THINGE reach out to me about.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: This is a horrible team. D v o A. Wise
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the Browns go to get to high power offense d
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: v O A wise of this Bengals team, which, yeah,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: it makes sense. The Bengals up it up a ship
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: ton of points and yards. The Browns have getting up
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: a ton of yards and points. They're not as bad
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: as their record has shown. The Browns again have lost
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: a bunch of close games. And we talk all the time.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I tried to get two freaked out about one possession
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: games because those are coin flips to me, and we've
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: seen in the Browns. I don't know if you saw
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: that clip with the Ravens, Chad. They called them for
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, off sides, false start. It was a
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: bad call. Like the band, the Browns probably should have
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: stole that game against the Ravens. I still think they're
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: being underrated. Where since he just beat the crap out
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: of Atlanta, it's just such a cell high spot on
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: an Atlanta team and a Brown teams that no one's
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: gonna bet. And I told you that a Monday night game,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be chasing. You're gonna get a good number.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: That's why I thought I would go back up a
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: three and a half. It moved quick, That moved quick
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. It literally went that night.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: So um, you can keep waiting, maybe up for the four,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: but I can promise you it's gonna be a pros
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: versus shows game. I know Pros are gonna come in
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: on the Browns. I know the public will have every teaser,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: every money and parlay, everything tied to that money night game.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: So it's just an easy spot for me to take
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: this Browns team. You hate d v O A H.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: I think it's good though, if you're just if you're
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: lazy just trying to find quick numbers, I think it's
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: great because it's literally two lists and you're done, while
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: other people gotta do tons of work to find those numbers.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: I have a question, but first I want to feel
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: some questions from the live listeners on AMPLE are sending
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell some questions in the chat. I would encourage
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: everyone to do that we can answer them live. Uh.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Is this a good game to bet live with the
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: assumption that it will end within three points either way? Yeah? Again,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm the wrong guy for live betting because I'm
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I don't do it because I can't really get that
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: much money down doing it. So that's why I rarely
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: ever give it out because it's like it's like the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: ultimate cheat code. Yeah, there's plenty of times where, like
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: even off time I had the Bangle was playing the Ravens. Um,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: we talked about the exact same scenario. The Ravens get
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: out fast and they played bad in the second half.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: So the Ravens were up I think ten enough and
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals. The line, shall we up to eleven
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: and a half for the Bengals, right plus eleven and
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: a half? Yeah, I want to give that out as
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: an easy play. Of course, it's a divisional game. Two
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna keep it close. I think the final
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: score is Bravens by three. So divisional games like this,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I love playing live dogs, especially home dogs. Um, it's
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: always great opportunities to play these kind of things. So yeah,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: if you if you just want to wait and play
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: it live always, I mean that's I said all the time.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Playing live is a lot easier than betting games beforehand. Um,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you can just find a lot of opportunities betting live,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: but you're also getting a lot of trouble chasing. And
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: that's why I try not to give out live betting
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: because a lot of people get hurt that way, Like
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: they'll have a great more one o'clock afternoon, Right, they'll
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: win four out of five games, so they're ups, say
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: four hundred dollars. Then the next two games in the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: four pms isn't going their way and they start chasing
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and start using the money they had already won. That's
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: my issue with live betting, where it's like you just
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: take the l and move on instead of being like, no,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I'm right. This is why I'm keep hitting this live number.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: But divisional games like this, I love playing the dog
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: especially I know what Joe Burrows team is. They're just
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: incredible second half defensively, Like Joe puts up twenty four
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: points and the Browns. The Browns have seven points head
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: into halftime, it's over. That's a dead bet, so that
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I would not recommend. But again, if the Browns are
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: up fourteen nothing on the Bengals, hell yeah, coming on
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. You hate t v o A. What is
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the stat that you look at as a better that
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you feel is predictive. My big reason I think I
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an edge on most books
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: is I'm really into d line playing offensive line play.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: So to me, if you can go into different sites
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and look at different run blocking schemes, different offensive schemes,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: and then you go and see how the D line
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: performs against those schemes. Again, Pro Football Focus they have
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: they have good numbers over there. Again there, I think
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: that books just won't account for because they don't care
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: about that stuff. So Carolina last week, if you would
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: have looked at it, they performed really well against the
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: certain blocking scheme of the books. We're gonna run right.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: The books could not run the ball, made them one
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: dimensional and that was a huge advantage for Carolina. Did
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I nail that pick? No? But me and Chad were
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: simply You're like, yeah, you take the home divisional dog.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: We weren't blindly just saying that, right, there's always gonna
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: numbers backing up stuff. Just do people really want me
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: to come on here and break down the offensive line
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: offensive line play? I mean there's other shows that do that.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: So to me, I'm looking for edges and places people
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: aren't looking, and that's where I find big discrepancies. Again,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: I missed a big time on um the lines. Right.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I had the lines graded as my third best offensive line.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Big miss I also had the Eagles. My number one
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: grade in Kansas City is my number two graded. Okay,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: we see my Eagles future is my super Bowl feature
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: is great. On the Chiefs, it wasn't me just betting
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: their offensive line. It was more about you're giving me
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: my homes behind the best offensive line. And the same
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: thing with the Eagles. It's like I was Basically I
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: liked all the talent on paper, it was all about hurts.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: So to me, if people want to know what my
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: advantages and what I'm looking for, that's where I really start. Honestly,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I look in the trenches and that's where you'll find
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: so much value because no one wants to look at
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: that stuff. It's boring, it's bland. No one talks about it.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: But I'm telling you there's a whole little world inside
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: that offensive defensive line matchups that you'll be able to find.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: You'll be able to find value in certain games that way. Um,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that's fascinating. I mean, I don't want to shoot on
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: d you a that. I'm telling you. If you're just
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: a sports fan, you want to look at something for
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: one minute, do it. It's the perfect lazy man thing.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: But if you're just blindly betting. You're you're gonna ge,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get screwed. It's public. Everyone has those numbers
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and everyone uses that numbers. There's no there's no advantage
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: onlines simply betting d V O A. It's it's too
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: publicly known to find advantage. I just think it's nice
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: for a baseline. So that's what I don't want to
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: shoot on it. I know people use it. I just
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: want to make it my number one thing. It's fascinating
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: um For years, I know of professional betters they're watching
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the second game of preseason, the third game of preseason,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: years ago when there was a fourth game, a fourth
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: game of preseason. Not because they're betting crazy amounts on
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: these games. They want to grade the second string right tackle,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: they want to grade the third string left guard because
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: at some point of those players are gonna have to play.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: And they always found the advantage in offensive line play,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: and whoever was backfilling, and if they were good or
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: not was going to have a huge impact on whether
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: or not they found value in the number. It's like,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: you're right, Look, you're talking to a guy who's full
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: belief in philosophy about building teams is an offensive line metaphor.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: When we were starting Action Network before it even begun,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Like I left ESPN, I'm sitting in the VC office
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: of the place that was founding it UM and we're
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: talking about who we want to hire and talent it
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: And they've got all these names on the board of
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: people who are high profile, who we know like sports betting. Again,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: this is two seventeen, Like we knew these people like
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: sports betting, but they weren't doing sports betting, and they
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: want to spend this much money and this much money.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: I'm like, you, guys, we gotta hire of the offensive line. Like,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: we cannot put anything out if we don't have the
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: people who are making the decisions and putting stuff on
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: the website. I'm a huge believer in building a round
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: our offensive line. Again, people building out models, if that's
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: where I start a lot of my edges, Like I
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: look offensive deal, defensive line play by talk all the time.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: If you're building a football model, the number one thing
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: is always gonna be quarterback. Like again, that's there's not
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: too many Giants, Jets teams out there that can hide
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: their QB and have it work for him. But certain
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: schemes can do that. So that's just something you need
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: to be a paying attention to. Right now, we like
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: the lines a lot plus three and a half. Uh,
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: everything else we're wavering. So to throw up some other teams,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I would not be uncomfortable putting the Cowboys in at
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: minus nine and a half. Yeah, auto play it for
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: me again. We touched on it where we like the
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: defensive matchup. We like Michael Parsons against the fields. But
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the biggest thing is just this Cowboys team's defense is
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: built for the exact style that this Bears offense likes
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: to run. So to me, they might find an edge
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: and running right that might be where they look to
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: find edge. And the Bears, but they had the same
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: tape we all have, like you gotta bring you just
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: gotta bring the house to stop the run and have
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a QB spot for fields and you'll be good. The
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: kid doesn't get it. You can't hold to the ball
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: for as long as he holds onto the ball. Now
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: you're gonna going to get the defensive line that is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: a wall be the best on football at sacking the
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: quarterback and against the quarterback that holds on the ball
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: too long. So it's the same spot when we kind
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: of faded that we took the Cowboys against the Washington Commanders, Like, yeah,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: it was more people all over the Washington that spot there,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: like this is this number is a fishing number. We
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: kept saying, it's when slow against that d line. I
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: got that holds onto the ball too much number two
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: and holding the ball the longest right now, being great
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: out this year is fields. So just a bad matchup
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: for a Bears team coming off a huge win. Again,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: we talked about being a letdown spot. You mix that
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: in a young team and in a great the young
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: team with a big, great win on Monday night game,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: it's never a good formula for them the following week.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Now you're going on the road to play against the
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Dallas team. That's just you know, getting after in every
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: game against the quarterback. So yeah, getting back no brainer. Alright.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Another game that I have completely fallen in love with
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: over the past few days, and we talked about it
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: on the podcast earlier this week. You asked my opinion.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I didn't love it, but I felt like we had
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: to do it the Arizona Cardinals, And the more I
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: look at this, I was doing some research this morning
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: on my own I was doing the research and then
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: I listened to Raybun and Stucky on the Action Network
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: podcast and they confirmed it for me. Um, this is
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: a different team with DeAndre Hopkins. And I said this
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the other day. This team Kyler mur seventeen and ten
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: with DeAndre Hopkins six thirteen and one without him. Hopkins
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: comes back, goes for ten and three last week. Uh,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: they're playing in Minnesota, team that I still think is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: a bit of a fraud and has been getting lucky,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: and their defense is dreadful. Defense is the last three
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: games they've had fewer yards per play than the team
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: they played, which to me shows the other team has
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: actually played better. They've gotten good bounces, there's a regression.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: They are terrible at covering a number one receiver. Everything
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: to me lines up and I will say this. I
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: got a theory. We're about to enter November. Cliff Kingsbury
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: usually turns into the worst coach in the NFL in November.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: What if we're living in a bizarro Cliff Kingsbury universe
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: where because he's getting DeAndre Hopkins back, and because the
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Cardinals were so bad earlier the year, the Colonel has
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: actually become good. So I like the Cardinals plus four.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Love him, love him in the contest, love him in
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: the car test. We might have a bet off. Brother. No, yeah,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I flipped. I like the Biking. I'm so sorry. I do.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I do. I know they're they're they're getting you though
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: sharp track, They're getting you. Don't do it, Chad, you
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: know better. Vikings one o'clock at home. I should have
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: known better to get sucked in on this Cardinal's love.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Of course, they're giving us plus three and a half.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: They want us to take this game so bad. They're
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: begging you to take Arizona. I guess what the public
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: is doing. They're coming in heavy on Arizona. Chad getting
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: sucked in the Hopkins hype. I'm gonna lose money on Kirk.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: I've already accepted it. I gotta back it. So this
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: sadly will not be in our contest because there's no
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: way I'm taking the Cardinals here. I had a couple
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: of calls about it, um a couple of sharps on
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the Vikings as well, but that didn't even flipped me.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: It was just more looking at the day, and it's
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: just like Arizona sucks. They probably should have lost to
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: New Orleans last week. They got very lucky on two picks.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: Six is before the half. They haven't fixed a lot
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: of their issues. I like the Hopkins move. I agree
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: that's a big upgrade for them. He doesn't fix anything
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: for them. On offense, they got major issues. So to me, Vikings,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: full game, Vikings, first half. The Cardinals ain't doing it.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Dude off, we got a full on bet off. Who's
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be my bitch? I want to know I'm bet
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: off so I'm feeling good. Oh my god, I can't
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: believe I gotta have this much pressure on the game.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I've already bet the game, and now I gotta have
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a bet off. I bet it too. I bought out
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of my position though, because I was. I was with
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: you on Tuesday. It's like, hell yeah, you take the
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Cardinals here every time, Like Kirk is not that good.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Their record, They're not what their record says they are.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: But when you really break down the film and the
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: numbers on Arizona Chat, they are broken again. I even
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: when the Rams being as bad they are, I still
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: see the Cardinals finishing fourth in this division. I am shocked.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: We're in a better off about the Cardinals. Start the
• 33:11
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  Speaker 1: Tennessee redline is one eight hundred eight eight nine nine
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  Speaker 1: hundred five hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, you
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: want to get to the big balls. Well, I just
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: said Texans as you said big balls, and look at
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: I feel like that just shows that you and I
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: are having the mind meld that we always have except
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: on our big bet offs. Healthy relationship. It's true, It's
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: totally true. Uh, it's big balls better than week. Really
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: gonna take some big balls, right Chat, this this might
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: be one of our bigger balls bet of the week
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: of the year. Houston looks dead, they were People are
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: leaving them for dead. They they view them as the
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: worst team in football, which they might be mean. Chat
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: might be walking right into it betting against their divisional
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: leader in Tennessee. But I do think Daniels banged up.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I think that's real. The amount of professionals that reached
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: out to he said they like Houston here for that
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: simple fact of he's not healthy. Um, we'll do it.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: We'll walk right into it. This is gonna be painful
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: as hell. Play the number here, people, two and a
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: half should not be what it is like. This is
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: this is uh another game this week. The public is
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: gonna view is free money and the books aren't your friends.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: They're not just giving away money, They're setting you up
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: for a trip. So I like the Houston aspect. The
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: only worry with Houston is this is seller's week, right,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: So you know, if you want to get the hell
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: out of Houston, this is the week you tank because
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get traded for the deadline this upcoming week.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: But I I look at the match up, the scheme
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: this This Tennessee team just has not been playing that well. Again,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: their defense is really but what's holding that team together
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: through a bunch of different games or defense just gets
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: the turnament makes the plays. Houston historically in this position
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: plays well against Tennessee, so so divisional home dog. You
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: can't take all of them, but this is one of
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: these where if I can't get the Jets in the contest,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: you gotta least let me get Texans in. Dude, I'm
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: with you on this. I love this marking down. I
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I heard a stat I think on the Action Network
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: PoID this morning that the texts the Titans are allowing
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: twenty one points a game and scoring nineteen points a
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: game and yet the four and two and leading the division.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: That's probably what the Bills just beat the crap. I
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: don't know what I'm gonna This is not a great
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: football team right now. No, no, So I love the
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Texans at plus two and a half. Year as you
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: were talking, hoping to get the three though, right, the
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: public will keep hammering, uh Tennessee. So if me chau
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: get three in the contest three and half, that would
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: be amazing. I gotta is you're taking a two and
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a half though. Well. As as you were talking, um,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I went into the Action Network app, I clicked on
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: this game. I used fan to a quick slip and
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: made the bet as you were talking. King took me
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: about thirteen seconds. It was that easy. What number? I
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: took it at two and a half and a half.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I'm okay with taking me to two and a half.
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Me too. But to the little listeners, I always want
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: them to whole to get the best of the number.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I do think the public will hammer Tennessee and you'll
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: be able to get the three. Yeah that's true, totally true. Um,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: All right, so we got the Texans in lines three
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: and a half boys nine and a half Texans plus
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I will tell you right now,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling more optimistic about this lineup so far than
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: any lineup we've had this year. It's never good for us.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Usually when we hate it, we do good. The Foxhild
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: bed for us the other day was minus one and
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, you hated it, Now I love it.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Let's do it again. That's another one where I didn't
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: break it down too much, but that was just mainly
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: offensive line defensive line. And I just think we have
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: a huge edge with the four nine, and after getting
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: embarrassed last week against the Chiefs, they're gonna be here
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: in it all we and this is such a bounce
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: back spot Historically Shanahan versus McVeigh, he just he schemes
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: it up against him. He just does really well in
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: these matchups. So I'm happy here. You came around on it.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I knew you would. This will be our biggest public play.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Last week, our biggest public player with Tennessee came through
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: for US. UM this week it's gonna be the fourty niners.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: I know they're gonna get every teaser, every money line part.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna have them thrown in there. Just because public
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: public is watched this RAMS team. They're not being they're
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: not being sold fool's gold here. We know they have
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: major issues and they have no run game and we've
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: just seen the running back is now on the injury report. Right,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Henderson's out, So they're bringing up some young kid to
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: play who wasn't played all year. Just not not good
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Juji right now for the Rams. Alright, Lions three and
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: a half, Boys nine and a half minus nine and
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: a half, Texas plus two and a half, forty nine
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. One more game. You liked
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: it a lot the other day. I'm liking it even
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: more now. Washington plus three. And I is actually surprised.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: We talked about um the line movement on it. I
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: just couldn't believe Matt Ryan was worth a point um
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: because from everything I've seen this kid, Sam's not as bad. Well,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: he's just more athletic, I should say, then, Matt Ryan,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: So you should bring something new to this offense. But again,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: we we might be stepping in here, but we have
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: to take We have to take Washington. It's gonna be
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: a public dog. I think everyone's ben because everyone's feeling
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: good if you took them last week, and this cold
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: team led a lot of people down last week. Not
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: only did they lose the spread, they burned a ton
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: of people on teasers, right, everyone teased them up to
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. They lost by nine. Usually the
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: public is really mad about those kind of teams. So
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: I I'm hoping we're not stepping in it. We're not
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: waiting too long here. But I just like what Washington has, right,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: they have good pieces. If they weren't in the NFC East,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: they'd probably be doing well in these other divisions. They're
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: most of their losses have just come in the division
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: this season. So to me, Washington is not as bad
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: as a record shows. And again Heineke, we we talked
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: about last week. He wasn't gonna be that much worse
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: than went. What do we know? He was gonna be
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: able to throw a pick six and be all right.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: But still you watch that game. He had the offensive
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: movie like him throwing the mode Terry mcclarin. I love
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff where it's like you've got no read,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: you just get it to your best guy who's in
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: single coverage. You let your best guy and make a play.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: There's three different third downs like thirty and eight, thirty nine,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: third and twelve. He made those kind of throws to Terry.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I love that ship like that's my favorite stuff seeing
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: a QB trusting their best receivers. So again, this cold team,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: they're just bad. They're just a bad team. Where I've
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: seen Washington actually have good moments and good players and
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: their scheme is good to me. So yeah, me and
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Cha might be stepping right into it, but I can't
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: not take this plus three. I don't think we are
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: I think everything you said is true. I think the
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: market is not caught up to the fact that Taylor
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Heineke is a better quarterback for this team and they're
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: still getting downgraded because of what they had done with
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: Carson wentz Um. The coolest thing is really interesting to me.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Sometimes there are those stories that just start to fascinate you.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: And as soon as they benched Um Matt Ryan. I
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: was reading some of the coverage and I feel like
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Frank Reich. He had some quotes in there, and he
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: seemed like a lovely guy, and but one of the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: quotes was basically, we thought it would be great with
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, with our running game and our offensive line.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: We didn't hold up our end of the bargain. Uh.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: And then he essentially said to Matt Ryan, it's not you,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: it's me, but you're getting benched and to me And
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: then there was a weird transition and Raybon and stuff.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: You talked about this on their podcast too, but in
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: this story, there was this transition about how involved was
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Jim Rsay in the decision making and Rich basically said
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: the decision was me or Say and the GM. That's
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: not a good way to run a football team. Yeah,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: And so it feels like there's a lot there's a
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: lack of faith in what the coaching staff can do.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: It feels like the owner is getting too involved in
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the decision making. Uh. And they're given a quick hook
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: to the quarterback Matt Ryan for a guy who's a
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: six you know, round draft pick um two years ago.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: So I think there's some real issues on the Colts. Yeah,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: we talk all the time. It all starts in football
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: at the top. You go through all the different organizations
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: that have success, that consistently have success. What is it?
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: It's good ownership, good good putting the right people in
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: the general manager position and having owners that just shut
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: the funk up, like they're letting people run their teams,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: have stepping in controlling everything. I feel bad for the
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Colts because they're stuck in that middle level of hell,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: where like you're not bad enough to get a franchise quarterback,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: and you're not ever gonna stop trying to pick up
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: these guys and these one or two year deals because
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: you have the pieces there. Like again, Jonathan Taylor was
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: the best running back on football last year. Can't do
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: a single thing this year, cannot do anything. So it's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: it's brutal if you're a Colts fan, where maybe this
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: is it right the kids Sam could come in, you'll
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: know you'll have in him or he's terrible, and you
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: can be bad this year and get a good draft
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: pick because it's different this year. The bottom is not
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: really that bad, right. The couple of the worst teams
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: like the Saints, the Jaguars, even Houston, they're not that
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: terrible like them and the Bears. The differences in that extreme,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: but the hero of the Bears at what three and
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: four chat So there's gonna be a bunch of teams
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna win some games they shouldn't. And I
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: think even if the Colts tank this year, if they
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: only want one or two more games, you might be
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: able to still end up with the top four, top
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: five pick where we just talked about there's five good
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks in this class that could work out for the
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Colts because to me, I I would do what they're doing.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: I would sit Matt Ryan and get the young kid
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: a shot. Where again, it's nothing against Matt Ryan. They
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: did fail him in some aspects. He has the most interceptions,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the most fumbles, and the most sacks in football right now.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Not all on him, but some of it it is
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: on him. Simon, We've narrowed it down and I'm really excited.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Lions plus three and a half, Cowboys minus nine and
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: a half, Texans plus two and a half, Niners minus
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: one and a half, Washington plus three. Our foxhole is
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Niners minus one and a half. Simon says, as Brown's
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: plus three executive decision from me as Lines plus three
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: and a half, Big Balls, Texas plus two and a half.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: We have a bet off. We have an official bet off,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. We probably got to get some some bet
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: off music. Now check and here it comes. They stop it.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: I'm playing because someone here's run on the field. In
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: this case, you know what I think you are. I
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: think you're the bitch, and it will not be a
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: good night. We have a bet off with the Cards
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: and the Vikings. Simon, give me a Scootroolet pick. You're
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: dominating right now when all hope is lost, all that's
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: left is relief. Let's play scots Roulette. Yeah, what's the
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: record of that scootra let stuff? I don't know. You're
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: far ahead. It's eight. What do you what do you like?
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Are you like five and two? Now? Yeah? After a
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: slow one and two starts? Yea three and one. Real cocky.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: He's now three and four. Wait, you're four and three
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: and on three and four? Oh no, no, I'm five
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: and two. Don't once you try to take one away?
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: How dare you? Well? Listen? What could be interesting? We
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: have a bet off? But should scootrow let be the
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Vikings and the Cardinals. I'll do it. You really want
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: to do that? Yeah? I was gonna take the Cardinals anyways,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: You you fool? All right, give it to me. Vikings.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: You're a fool. It's not even one of my favorite bets,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: and now it is that. Now I have to load
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: up on us just to even even feel like more
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: of an idiot when the Cardinals do something. Cannot wait
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: for the Cardinals to win I know they're gonna not win.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: They're gonna definitely backdoor. Though this says backdoors. It's not
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: November yet. This game is being played before Halloween. As
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, we'll tell you, Uh, Matt, I know the
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: amp folks can't hear you. But for the best benefit
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: of the you know, hundreds of thousands of podcast listeners,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: would you like to share your Cliff Kingsbury theory. It's
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: an annual tradition here on the Favorites. Well, I'll do
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: the full screed next week when it goes into effect.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: But you Cliff Kingsbury's very much inbounds for Halloween, which
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: is Monday, so you get it in just under the
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: wire here you can bat him. But once the know
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: his stock and the health and vitality of pumpkins are
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: basically the same, we're you know, we're approaching the the
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: other side of the curve for pumpkin futures, and same
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: goes for Cliff Kingsbury. So I wish you the best
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: of luck Bettenham in this kind of final week of eligibility. Well, listen,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Madame Mitchell. As a man who knows pumpkins, we've had
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: many conversations before we get on the air about the
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: number of pumpkins decorating his front stoop. His sons. He
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: has two kids. Uh, he has a boy who's older. Uh.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: His son's obsession with pumpkins also gores, which he doesn't
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: really know how to differentiate. Kind of kind of teach
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: the kid these things. So it's an apt analogy. Uh,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: money line round Robin Parlay. I mean, obviously we're going
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: with the Lions. I think we gotta go with the
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Texans Washington. Yeah, we gotta. Can we get a big dog.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: That's a good because that was nice last week. Um,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: obviously didn't only hit on the one the Seahawks, but
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: if you us when it came through, that's been a
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: really nice pairing. You throw the Jets in there, Jets, Lions, Texans,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Washington and the Jets. I know Matt Mitchell was putting
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: this all into the chat for the live listeners right
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: now to do it. But they're the only team I
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: could see of all the big favorites get upset Eagles.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: I could just see this scenario. I'm sleep walking in
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: this game, even though again I'm taking the Eagles. Why
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: would we not put the Cardinals in there? Instead of
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. You can, that's fair. I'm just trying to
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: get a big dog because all these dogs are little,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Like I like having one big guy in there because
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: that really juices the odds. Well, this is a little
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: dog week, Like there's no really big dogs, um, because
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: I know we didn't talk about like another survivor plays
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys obviously against the Bears. So like, there's no
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: way I'm picking the Bears and went out right, there's
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: no world I picked Green Bed and went out right. Yeah,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: they're just not there's no really good big dogs this week. Um, Lions, Texans,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Washington Jets cards. That's what I think we should do,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: all right, Lyons, Texans Washington Jets cards. Um, we've got
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: a bet off. We are playing it in Scoochroulette. You've
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: got the Vikings, I've got the Cardinals. Our final five
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: lines plus three and a half, Boys minus nine and
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: a half, Texas plus two and a half, forty Niners
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half, Washington plus three. Those lines
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: are pretty stable right now. So as you're listening to this, um,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: you should definitely go get them. I only wanted to
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: wait on in Houston, just hope to get that three.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: I love. I just love the number three even No
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I bet it two and a half. Yeah, I bet
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: it too, Like I got it, I got any got any.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: I think we've done all we can do here bro Um.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Network for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: You can download us from Spotify podcasts, from Apple podcast
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Please rate, review, subscribe, need
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: this five stars, stay whatever you want. Feedback is a
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: gift until next time. I love you, ye