Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Pfizer May Have the Edge Over Moderna In Vaccine Race

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Pfizer May Have the Edge Over Moderna In Vaccine Race · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, it is time once
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: again to check in on COVID progress, not progress of
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the disease per se, but progress towards a vaccine. Let's
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: bring in some Faconalty, director of research for Bloomberg Intelligence,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: and Sam. You keep an eye on everything that's out there.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: You've noticed so that some companies do actually have an
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  Speaker 1: edge over others. Tell us what companies we should be
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  Speaker 1: most closely watching these days. Yeah, hi, Bunny. Um, So
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: you know a lot of this analysis and and conclusion
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: is based on early data, and early scientific data has
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: a nasty habit of changing when you get into bigger
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: trials and test your your product into in multi center trials, etcetera. So,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: with that caveat, if we look at the the on
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the effectiveness side, I think FIDER and Beyond Tech seemed
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: to have the age at the minute with regards to
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  Speaker 1: both generating antibodies and also this other arm of the
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  Speaker 1: immune system that I keep talking about, the cellular immunity,
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  Speaker 1: that seems to be the case at the moment. So um,
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  Speaker 1: you know, they beaten Maderna on the similar arm and
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  Speaker 1: on the on the antibodies, Astrotennics didn't quiet match up.
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  Speaker 1: Although it's not bad, it's just not as good as
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  Speaker 1: So that's where we stand today, although there's a whole
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  Speaker 1: bunch of other companies that have to still put out
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: data with different technologies, and the ones that I'm particularly
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: looking forward to seeing someone some of the older technologies.
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  Speaker 1: The variety of vaccines that we have today don't use
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  Speaker 1: either of the technologies that moderna Fiser and Astrosennocrat using.
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  Speaker 1: And also there's one other version of these RNA vaccines
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  Speaker 1: that Fighter has got that is being tested by Imperial
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  Speaker 1: College and the company in the US called ARC Tourists,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: amongst others. I'm looking forward seeing from human data for those. Hey, Sam,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: you've followed this pharmer business and vaccine business for decades.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Help us understand that when and if we get vaccines plural.
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  Speaker 1: I'm assuming various entities will come out with various vaccines.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Talk to us about how you actually get a vaccine
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  Speaker 1: discovery and then into mass production for I'm guessing billions
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  Speaker 1: of doses and then the distribution of that. How does
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  Speaker 1: that all work? Yeah, yeah, interesting, Paul. And Actually, vaccines
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  Speaker 1: were really not sixty at all until quite a few
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  Speaker 1: years ago when we ended up getting some of the
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  Speaker 1: newer vaccines like gardensil from like shing gricks from from
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  Speaker 1: Glaxo and and exactly two point both of those products
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  Speaker 1: have manufacturing bottlenecks in them in that they can't make
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  Speaker 1: enough of the stuff to sell. So both collects are
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  Speaker 1: and work either under underestimated the demand or it's just
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  Speaker 1: very difficult to manufacture these things. So to that point,
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of steps required. And I think the
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  Speaker 1: one person who regularly brought this up was the CEO
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  Speaker 1: of some of you, saying, it's not just about discovering
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  Speaker 1: a vaccine. You've got to be able to first show
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  Speaker 1: that it is safe because you're giving it to a
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  Speaker 1: large population of otherwise healthy people who don't have a disease.
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  Speaker 1: And then you've got to get the stuff manufactured, put
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  Speaker 1: into a vial, send somewhere in a cold chain often,
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  Speaker 1: so you need to keep it cold and maybe sometimes
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  Speaker 1: you're frozen. That's a that's an enormous challenge. But I
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  Speaker 1: think our government can rise up to it if if
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  Speaker 1: people are um, don't politicize this in again, but but
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  Speaker 1: it is, it is. It's definitely a hard and tough
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  Speaker 1: mountain to climb. And one question is you know, how
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  Speaker 1: much do you give to other countries if anything, even
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  Speaker 1: though it would probably be in your interest to give
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  Speaker 1: this to the whole world, right, so yeah, yeah, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: but let me carry something. We've just added up all
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  Speaker 1: the doses that people have said they will be making.
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  Speaker 1: And this is only about twelve fifteen companies, so the
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  Speaker 1: other hundred companies or more. I don't have numbers four
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  Speaker 1: and and we're at ten billion doses in one and
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  Speaker 1: even if you have to take two of those per persons,
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  Speaker 1: that's five billion people. Now, it doesn't matter how many
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  Speaker 1: doses you give to America. They don't. We don't need
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  Speaker 1: more than six seven million dollars in the US, right,
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  Speaker 1: So there's enough volume being pledged and being worked on
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  Speaker 1: that if all these vaccines work, that's the point, right,
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  Speaker 1: Because they're all different vaccines. Then you have more than
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  Speaker 1: enough to vaccinate a lot the majority of people to
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  Speaker 1: get to that early immunity if they all worked. So, Sam,
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  Speaker 1: I guess the next what are some of the next
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  Speaker 1: mile post that you're looking at real real quickly here
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  Speaker 1: that you think you're going to kind of come across
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  Speaker 1: the tape. Yeah. So I'm looking forward to, as I
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  Speaker 1: said earlier, to data from some of these other technologies
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  Speaker 1: actually published data. Folks have said that their vaccines worked.
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  Speaker 1: Some Chinese companies have said their vaccines work, but published
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  Speaker 1: data that we started to see yesterday with all the
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  Speaker 1: who harder we had yesterday. Um, so I'd like to
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  Speaker 1: see some of the older vaccines show some you know,
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  Speaker 1: just to see how they're doing. And then I'm really
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  Speaker 1: looking forward to seeing this new even newer version of
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  Speaker 1: our n A vaccines from Imperial College and our tourists
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  Speaker 1: and translate by or there's a whole host of companies
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  Speaker 1: who got these class has got some. But I think
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  Speaker 1: we're expecting some news from Imperial and our tourists in
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the next few weeks months. That's what I'm looking forward to. Hey, Sam,
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  Speaker 1: thanks so much once again for joining us giving us
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  Speaker 1: your thoughts on this whole race for a COVID nineteen vaccine.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Santa zelis Director of Research for Bloomberg Intelligence for all
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: of Europe, but more importantly his day job as he's
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: one of those top farmer healthcare analysts based in London.
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  Speaker 1: Let's move over and now to Asia and talk China.
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  Speaker 1: China's market, the new jack MA and I p O
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  Speaker 1: has bypassed the New York Stock Exchange and has decided
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  Speaker 1: to list on the Hong Kong and Shanghai Exchanges. And
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  Speaker 1: of course after that the Hong Kong Exchanges and clearing
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  Speaker 1: stock surged as much as nine and a half percent.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Let's bring in someone who knows a lot about this now,
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  Speaker 1: Brendan and hearn is c i O of Crane Shares. Brendan,
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  Speaker 1: why did jack MA decide to I p O almost
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: everywhere bots New York? Well, I think we've seen US
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: listed Chinese companies reissue in Hong Kong as well as
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: on the New Shanghai star Board in order to get
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: a higher valuation. That US China political rhetor CRIC has
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  Speaker 1: depressed the US listed companies over the last say two years.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: So they're going to where they're going to be properly
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: valued by investors. So Brendan gives a sense of this
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  Speaker 1: and financial A lot of people here, I think in
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the States don't have a real good understanding of what
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Aunt is. Give us here your your overview of the company.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So and and financial makes PayPal look like a rounding error. Uh,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: you know, it's it's it's mobile payments dominate the e
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  Speaker 1: commerce space in China today. Uh, you know, actually finding
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: places that will accept cash or in some cases even
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  Speaker 1: credit cards. It's very difficult when you when you visit
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  Speaker 1: China because it's all all done mobile and so Aunt's
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  Speaker 1: really been at the forefront. Um. You know, Ali Baba
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  Speaker 1: uh now owns about a third of the company and
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  Speaker 1: it's hooked in with their e commerce outlets team all
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and about. But it's it's it's really, it's really gone viral.
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  Speaker 1: It's ubiquitous in China today. Two hundred billion dollar valuation
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  Speaker 1: on that company. So pretty phenomenal. Brendan, What what do
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  Speaker 1: we need to know about China right now? And it's
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  Speaker 1: aspect towards free markets. Seen for a long time that
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  Speaker 1: I was trying to embrace free markets more and more,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: and at a certain point, you know, I think investors
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  Speaker 1: turned their back a little bit on China, particularly as
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  Speaker 1: it was comping down on on Hong Kong and so
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  Speaker 1: on our investors back now, I mean, you can't ignore
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  Speaker 1: two hundred billion dollar valuation, you know, I p O
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  Speaker 1: s no no. I mean, certainly we've had a you know,
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  Speaker 1: the bowls are on parade in Hong Kong right now.
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  Speaker 1: You had Ali Baba relist in November of last year,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: j D and Nettie's more recently. UM. But you're going
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: to have a number of these companies relist and they're
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: getting higher valuations. One of the rumors we heard I'll
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: share just uh, just you know, Bloomberg Radio has been
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: so great to us over the years. But but there's
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: actually hatter there's rumors that d D is going to
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: go public in Hong Kong. Uh. D D is the
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  Speaker 1: Uber slayer. Uh. You know d D put Uber out
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  Speaker 1: of business in China, UM, and there was there's there's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: talk that they're going to come as well. So you know,
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  Speaker 1: you've got two of the biggest tech unicorns globally potentially
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  Speaker 1: going public into Hong Kong UM this year. So interesting. Brendon,
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  Speaker 1: give us a sense of just overall, how the markets
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: are over there? I mean, you know, China was obviously
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the pandemic and it really bore the
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: brunt of it late last year but early this year.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Yet they've had some much better numbers over the last
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  Speaker 1: several months. How's the Chinese I guess just market in
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: general looking over there. So so China's first in, first out,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's fifo so so they their worst economic numbers
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  Speaker 1: corporate earnings took place in in Q one, and we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing definitively a E shaped rebound. Uh. You know, some
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  Speaker 1: of this is the strength of the quarantine in China,
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  Speaker 1: and this is it's not it's not a China thing,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's an Asia thing. Unfortunately, we've seen a number
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  Speaker 1: of pandemics in the last twenty years. If it's stars
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: or H one N one um and when they say
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: don't leave your apartment, it's taken very, very seriously. And
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  Speaker 1: I would point to Vietnam uh population of a hundred
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  Speaker 1: million under four hundred cases, zero deaths, Taiwan million people
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  Speaker 1: under five cases. So it's not a China thing, it's
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: an Asia thing. And that's allowed them to go back
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to work. What's next four crane share is Brendan, what
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: are you looking at these days? Well, I think we're
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: seeing you know, you know, we're in a growth geared
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: market and that's globally, it's in emerging markets, it's in China.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So so I think one, we're out trying to tell
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: investors that buying broad e M which has a heavy,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: heavy tilt to value sectors. Uh, you have to piece
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: out these these growth parts of EM and China. Um,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I think you know, further afield, we are looking at
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: this new starboard. Uh, this new board on the Shanghai
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  Speaker 1: Stock Exchange. Uh, it's an area where we hope to
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: come to market in in the coming weeks with a
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: US listed ETF. Interesting, So interesting, Brended. So we've seen
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus out of the US today, we had a big,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: big package announced out of the European Union. In China,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: what's the fiscal stimulus environment there for the Chinese government?
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: So they've taken a very incremental process. The raw numbers
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: showed that China, yes they're stimulating, but so much more
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: supporting it. They have not pulled the band aid and
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: gone kind of two thousand nine debt driven so so
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: they're doing very targeted measures trying to get credit to
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: private companies, smaller, UH medium and small companies. So so
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: they've been lowering some of some of the lending rates UM,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: but more targeted, more targeted exposure. I think they realize
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that they're not going to be immune to the economic
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: consequence of global quarantine. So they're keeping a lot of
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: dry powder. Where do you think that dry powder will
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: end up? So I think ultimately if we if we
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: hopefully we we get a Q three rebound here in
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the United States, I think that you know, as the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: number largest economy globally, it's very critical UM and I
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: think I think what China is doing is you know,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: they've not cut interest rates UM and I think I
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: think if if we have a negative outcome in terms
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: of a quarantine social distance measures, you know, China will
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: have to push further stimulus to offset um external weakness.
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  Speaker 1: Hey Brandon, thanks so much for joining us. We always
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: appreciate getting your thoughts on all things Asia, including China.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Brendan her In, chief investment officer for Crane Shares based
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: in New York City, And Vonnie, it's interesting to see
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: kind of how you know the the of those Asian
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: um countries have done very well with containing the virus. Well,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: we've been talking about the cannabis market really for several
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: years now as it continues to go not just in Canada,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: but now in the United States as well as a
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: handful of states are more than a handful of states
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: have legalized recreational marijuana. Matt Hawkins managing partner for Entourage
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Effect Capital. They're based in Dallas, Texas, private equity firm
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: focusing on a number of sectors, including UH the cannabis
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: business as well. So let's get a sense kind of
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: where things are pre and post pandemic in the cannabis business. UH. Matt,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Give us a snapshot,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: if you would, of the cannabis market place kind of
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: pre and post pandemic here. Sure, happy to do so,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. Before the pandemic started, there was
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  Speaker 1: a downturn in the in the cannabis markets UH. In general.
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  Speaker 1: It was driven by the public company and more the
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: state operators in the United States that they're listed on
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the Canadian exchanges that were unable to meet their projections
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: to to UH. A lot of factors of the first
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: and foremost being their inability to convert a large number
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: of the illicit market into the legalized market, so that
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the projections that they had come out with obviously weren't met.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: That trickles down, you know, following quarter to anything. It
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: also trickles down to the private companies as well. So
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: there was a distress a moment in time board for
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: you know, distress buying, and there was also a cash
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: crunch in the industry. What's happened post pandemic is that
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: in all the legalized states, um with the exception of
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Massachusetts for recreational, the company that cannabis industry was deemed essential.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So all of our dispensaries and and uh and and
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: you know in in production facilities were all all remained
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: open and in fact, sales skyrocket and have continued to
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: do so. And so the pandemic and a you know,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: in a in an awful irony has helped the industry.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: And so excuse me, you still have valuations that are low,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: but you have companies that are in better shape. Are
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: we sure? Go ahead? We'll just on that. Are we
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: seeing deals yet, Matt? And if so, you know, are
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: they small deals? Medium sized deals? Is this one private
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: equity goes notes well, again a good question that the
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: private equity world and cannabis is small comparatively speaking. We
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: we have no institutional capital in the industry and all
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: of our investors we've been placing money in the industry
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: since two thousand fourteen, we've made almost seventy investments, but
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: all of our investors come from hind it worth individuals
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: or family offices. We don't have any true institutional quality
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: investors because of the federal legality, and so until that changes,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: it's going to be small all comparatively speaking. But what's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: happening now to answer your question about deals getting done,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: is that the capital markets and cannabis industry have opened
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: up a bit since the pandemic um started. Obviously, at
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the beginning, even though we were uh deemed essential, there
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: was no deals getting done because money was on the sidelines.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Things are starting to pick up a bit. Anticipated by
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the fall, we're gonna see a lot of activity both
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: at the private and the scale building deals to where
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: excuse me, in advance of some type of legalization the
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: next several years um. Those are the companies that are
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: going to be in position with scale to attract big
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: institutional capital, and that's when the way we'll really hit
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: So Matt, on the on the credit site, give us
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a sense of how these companies are financing kind of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: their day to day operations. Are banks lending to this sector?
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Absolutely not. It is a we have the sixties some
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: odd investments we have they all have of making relationships
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: where business services and checking accounts. I mean that that's
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: been a bit of a missnomber in the industry and
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: that there are following federal guidelines to provide services, but
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: they're not able to lend money. And so that that's
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: what it would have been a disaster to the industry
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: if there was a prolonged putdown because we don't have
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: lines of credit, we don't have huge ballot sheets to
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: the weather rainy day, and so that that intel and
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: intil it becomes federally legal or federally quasi legal through
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the States Act or the Safe Banking Act. Um, it's
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: going to remain that way, Matt, who are your competitors
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: in private equity? You know, there's a sense out there
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that at some point there will be two or three
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: private equity firms that will own up all of the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: you know, the the cannabis facilities, particularly in states like
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: California and so on. Who should we be looking at? Well,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: we we we like to say in the in the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: PE world in cannabis that we don't have any competitors
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: because the industries there's such a dearth of capital that
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: we all work together. I mean we when we look
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: at deals, we look to see who's in the who's
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: in the capital stack, and we look for people that
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: we've invested with in the past. There's there's very few
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: organized capital groups like us that are in the industry.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Um of course that will change. I think what you'll
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: see happening, you know, as we get towards federal legalization,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: that the opposite will happen. A lot more griffs will
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: come in and they'll be backed by you know, Wall
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Street names, and you'll see, uh, you know, a large
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: industry being you know, being owned and operated and invested
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: in by the large pe shops. What kind of size
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: of an industry is it right now in the US?
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Um are It's hard to say because what's happened is,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: you know, we think it could be as big as
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: a fifty billion dollar industry in the in the United
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: States you know, by two thousand or twenty one, twenty two,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: But big portion of that include the illicit market. And
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: because of the illicit market is what it is. We
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: really don't know how big that is. But what we
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: always say is that this is a conversion of a market,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: not a creation of one, like for example, California. Well,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: actually not, We'll have to make you say that example
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: for the next time. But you're leaving us on a
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: sweet note there. Let's put it that way that as
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Matt Hawkins, managing partner of Entourage Effect Capital, great name
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: for for accounabis capital business, coming to us from Dallas.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Time now to get back to some market conversation. David
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Harden is CEO of some of Global Investments with one
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: point two billion dollars in assets under management. He manages
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the US Large Cap Equity Fund. And wouldn't you know
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: what the U s art caps are rallying today? Not unusual,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: funnily enough, So let's bring in David to figure out why, David,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: why are we continuing to see just the market move
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: higher and higher and higher in spite of so many challenges.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Well there, thank you, Vannie, Glad to be on your show.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Paul and excited to be here again and and appreciate
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: that the market is moving. And let's face it, a
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: lot of that has to do with the FED. The
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: FED put, the FED, zero interest rates, the system, open
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: market accounts. UM, it's working and it is moving the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: markets forward, for sure. And that's a lot of what's
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: going on right now. There's a little bit of euphoria
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: as well. We have people using robin Hood, you know,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and and buying stock, so there's a lot of speculation
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: out there. But in general I had attributed to the FED,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: so David, and when we think about the FED and
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the FED put, it seems like a lot of the
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: performance when you look at the SP five hunderd is
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: limited to a handful of names, those big tech names. Um,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: how do you view that? Is that a concern for you?
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Is it time to rotate out of some of those
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: winners into maybe some other sectors that perhaps have been lagging. Well,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: there's a little bit of difference between and and one
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: of the things we look at a lot at some
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: global is risk and trying to help manage the risk
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: that is in the stock market without having negative surprises.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: And when you look at these big names That's what's
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: really different between the if you want to call it
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: a bubble territory that we may be in right now
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: compared to stay two thousand, is that in two thousand
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: you had a lot of low quality, um call it junk,
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: risky names. Now you have a very high quality Microsoft, up, Amazon,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: up Apple. These are very good, rated the most innovative
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: companies that we have in America today. So the difference
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I think that you can hold on to this and
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: continue to hold these names is they're so high quality
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and such good companies that they deserve to be up.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: No one in Microsoft is laid off, so to speak.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Right they can continue to work. Forty some odd million
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: people out of work right now, but they're not off
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the internet, they're not off their technology. They're all still
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: using their phones. So very important that these companies can
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: continue to execute. I know anothers actually, like is Walmart?
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Is that also a pandemic play um In some respects
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: it is, but we held it long before this came about.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: But in recessions and periods of where people are unemployed
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: like we are in right now, Walmart tends to gain
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: market share. If you look at the past, they're up
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: about twelve percent year today. But this is with really
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: low risk. With the beta point five three, Walmart provides
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: you good return with very very um low downside risk
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: and that's what we like alright. So, David how Abot,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: we just got through the earnings from the big banks
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: last week, some really really strong trading results coming out
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: of some of those banks. How do you look at
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: the banks right here? Well, and that's and that's just
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: if they can make money through their trading through other
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: areas besides the yield curve, then that's worth looking at
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and that's worth investing in. If they're making money from
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: small business and the yield curve, that's something that I
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: would want to avoid. So economic and monamental is disconnected.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: At what point do they reconnect? And do you very
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: very quickly shoveled shuffle the playing cards in your deck
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: at that point, well, you have to write, because right
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: now the reality is weren't not We're not trading on
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: fundamentals as a whole. It is focused in a very
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: narrow part of the market um, and it is focused
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: on the FED and if the virus and the vaccine
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: and everything else comes to play, where we can treat
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: this and we can go back to quote unquote our
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: normal lives. Well, then a lot of that fed and
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of the stimulus goes away, and we're supposed
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to be able to go back to work. So it
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: becomes somewhat of a good news becomes bad news, and
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: you do have to trade that. So our expectation is
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: that the market continues, but don't be surprised if we
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: have a big risk off scenario, a severe risk off episode,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and I think it's very likely over the next year.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: So that kind of goes to the decoupling issue here.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: We've got a rising stock market, rising just kind of
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: risk assets in general, yet the economy remains extraordinarily weak.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: We're gonna, you know, get a brutal Q two GDP
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: number shortly Jobe's claims coming out later this week. Are
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: you concerned that at some point that that decoupling just
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: can't last. Absolutely, it has to shift back to normal.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: The focus has to go back on these reopenings and
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: how they're not working or being delayed, on the economic disappointments,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: which you just mentioned, and one that you haven't mentioned
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: is the election. So I think most people are waiting
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: hoping that that maybe somehow the election can be in
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: the favor of the market, but everything indicates that it
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: might not be. What's the question you get most from
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: your clients there in Salt Lake City and surrounding areas.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I think most people ask what should I do? What
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: should I do? Should I put my cash to work?
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Should I sell out of the market? And I think
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: they're looking for advice and in general, you know, as
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: an institutional investment manager, we have those answers, but they're
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: very specific to each person situation. So it's really important.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: I think that you know, you talk about essential workers
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: and how important they are. Advisors and investment professionals are
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: absolutely essential to help people understand what they should do,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: but that advisor and investment professional has to understand the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: underlying um risk and characteristics and profile of that client. David,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We really appreciate your commentary.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: David Harden, chief executive officer, chief investment Officers Summit Global
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: Investments at one point two billion dollars under management, based
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: in Salt Lake City, Utah. We appreciate his thoughts. Thanks
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio four