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What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fed 25th, 2026: What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?

“When there is a lack of honour in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”

Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.

My ambition is to keep learning new stuff. Like this morning’s quote – from Herbert Hoover.

One of the things I enjoy most is sharing my experience of how markets work in practice…

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