Latest / Bottom Line on Sports / FIFA's Failed Money Grab, NFL Sunday Ticket Prices, NFL Running Back Salaries and Ohio State

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FIFA's Failed Money Grab, NFL Sunday Ticket Prices, NFL Running Back Salaries and Ohio State · Bottom Line on Sports

0:05
SPEAKER_02: What's up, everybody?
0:06
SPEAKER_02: Welcome to another episode of the bottom line on sports.
0:10
SPEAKER_02: He's Jeremy Peak.
0:11
SPEAKER_02: I'm John Jacques Taylor.
0:12
SPEAKER_02: And this is our show about the intersection between sports and money.
0:17
SPEAKER_02: You know how we get down.
0:18
SPEAKER_02: We like to start every show with a number.
0:20
SPEAKER_02: This week's number, my friend, is what?
0:22
SPEAKER_00: This week's number is$35 million.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: And that is the payday of your boy, Gianni Infantino, who's the FIFA president.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: That would have been the payday they estimated he would have earned had his idea to sell off a chunk of the World Cup gone through.
0:45
SPEAKER_00: The Infidel.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: 35 million.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: You know what his salary is regularly?
0:51
SPEAKER_02: Let me guess.
0:52
SPEAKER_02: Let me guess.
0:53
SPEAKER_02: Head of FIFA.
0:54
SPEAKER_02: So I'm going to say in American dollars, he probably is like 5 million.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: He's at about 3.5 million U.S., but they estimate his bonus might be, you know, double that.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: So let's say he's at 7 million.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: That means the deal alone, even though he did it for, you know, make sure that the federations around the world got all this development money.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: It just so happened that his earnings would go up five times if that deal went through.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: You know what, man?
1:23
SPEAKER_00: What a nice guy.
1:24
SPEAKER_02: I called, well, you know, I thought he was doing this for benevolence, perhaps his own benevolence.
1:32
SPEAKER_02: But you know, I called BS when we were talking about this last week, uh, because I just, you know, I said it felt like a trial balloon.
1:40
SPEAKER_02: And you were like, no, no, no, no, no.
1:41
SPEAKER_02: You're much more serious than that.
1:43
SPEAKER_02: And I think what happened was most people, I this is what I think.
1:47
SPEAKER_02: I think most people were like me, including the players and all these other, you know, uh UEFA heads and all this were like, well, maybe it's a trial balloon.
1:56
SPEAKER_02: It's stupid, but maybe it's a trial balloon.
1:58
SPEAKER_02: And then they were like, Oh, wait a minute, he's serious.
2:02
SPEAKER_02: Right.
2:02
SPEAKER_02: And then and then and then and once they came over to your side, they go, Oh, we gotta stop this, like right now.
2:09
SPEAKER_00: And that's that's a and that's exactly what happened.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: You know what it reminds me of.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: Do you remember a few years ago when the big uh soccer leagues, the big football leagues said, hey, let's create the super league where you take the top teams from the you know, from from the Premier League and from the Bundesliga and make it into one of the things?
2:29
SPEAKER_02: I remember a little bit about that.
2:30
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and that, and then like the fans were outraged, and like the ultimately like all of soccer was outraged, and they had to disband that too.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: So I so I I think what happens in in FIFA and in international soccer is there's so much money to be made.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: There's so much money that there's there's you know, the the infantinos of the world and and the leagues and and and potential investors all trying to figure out how do you slice and dice it up differently to make lots and lots more money, which I don't have any issue with, except that it makes it an inferior product.
3:08
SPEAKER_00: Both of these things made an inferior product, that's no good.
3:12
SPEAKER_02: Now the thing that they have to do, I don't know.
3:15
SPEAKER_02: I'm on the outside looking back, looking in, and I'm not a business person the way you're a business, the way you look at the world from a business perspective.
3:23
SPEAKER_02: But it seems to me like you never have to reinvent the wheel.
3:27
SPEAKER_02: It seems to me like you would look at what the NFL does, and maybe what some of the other successful sports leagues does, but really the NFL, and go, what do they do that we can copy and bring to our league?
3:40
SPEAKER_02: And and so that we ain't got to come up with no new idea.
3:44
SPEAKER_02: Let's just take somebody else's idea and make it fit what we do.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Well, what the NFL does better than I think any other professional league is when they make changes, their changes are thoughtful and they're incremental.
3:57
SPEAKER_00: They're not sort of monumental changes or not sort of you know structurally altering changes.
4:04
SPEAKER_00: They're confident, intentional, and incremental.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: And every single move, they make a little bit more money, they make a little bit more money, and then at the end you look up and you go, these guys are a juggernaut.
4:17
SPEAKER_00: These guys are the best run sports league in the world, and they're making more money than anybody, any other sports league in the world.
4:22
SPEAKER_02: Um, like I was thinking about it just that quickly.
4:26
SPEAKER_02: Like, the NFL has made free agency a big deal, they've made their schedules a big deal, you know.
4:33
SPEAKER_02: And so you wonder if uh there's something for FIFA at the global part to go, let's make the transfer period a big deal for our different leagues.
4:44
SPEAKER_02: And really, the transfer period is like this huge thing.
4:47
SPEAKER_02: Where's he going?
4:48
SPEAKER_02: Where is he going?
4:49
SPEAKER_02: What's he going?
4:50
SPEAKER_02: You know, what's his number and all that stuff.
4:52
SPEAKER_02: And maybe that's a way you can monetize it.
4:55
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, maybe maybe you make the schedule, the Champions League schedule, a much bigger deal than it is, where you bring fans there and it's the whole to like you ain't got to reinvent the wheel.
5:06
SPEAKER_02: You just take what they're doing and figure out how to make it fit your sport.
5:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's it's what what you're really talking about is you're creating, and what the NFL does a great job is they create events.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: The event could be the event could be the NFL draft, the event can be the combine, it can be the free Asian period, it can be the schedule release.
5:26
SPEAKER_00: It isn't the Super Bowl for soccer.
5:30
SPEAKER_00: The World Cup is their event, and there aren't that many other events.
5:34
SPEAKER_00: The Champions League is a big event, but there could be, yeah, right.
5:37
SPEAKER_00: But FIFA needs to figure out how do you create incremental, meaningful events.
5:42
SPEAKER_00: That's probably how they're gonna earn more revenue that's gonna appeal to all the soccer federations and to the fans.
5:48
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think that's a good idea.
5:50
SPEAKER_02: Now they just need to hire us to uh to put it together for them and see what we can do.
5:55
SPEAKER_02: But uh no way that dude was gonna cop 35 million dollars for this.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: So I'm glad they put a stop to it.
6:04
SPEAKER_02: Uh it smelled bad to me from the start, and uh luckily everybody else caught on really quickly to what he was up to and said, Come on, man, what's your problem, dog?
6:15
SPEAKER_02: This ain't going through.
6:16
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, absolutely.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: So, bottom line for you?
6:18
SPEAKER_02: Bottom line for me, man, is the infidel has been stopped, and uh FIFA for now remains basically corrupt, not ultimately corrupt.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: Bottom line for me, I feel like I started the anti-FIFA movement last week.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: It was an insurgency, and the insurgency worked.
6:40
SPEAKER_02: Um, I got an email today that said, uh, Mr.
6:46
SPEAKER_02: Taylor, we will soon be charging your credit card for the Sunday ticket.
6:50
SPEAKER_02: And I said to myself, self, at some point before they charge me, I need to go see how much it is.
6:57
SPEAKER_02: And dude, I looked it up for me, and I've already got YouTube TV, 378 big ones.
7:08
SPEAKER_02: And so I was just sitting here trying to decide today.
7:11
SPEAKER_02: I'm pretty sure I'm going to do it, but the fact is 378 big ones means I gotta think about it.
7:17
SPEAKER_02: Um, and that's just for me, it's it's more for some other people.
7:20
SPEAKER_02: Sure.
7:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,$378 in addition to whatever you know, multi-channel television that you have or your streaming services is a lot of money.
7:30
SPEAKER_00: The interesting thing though is that 387 uh$378 probably buys me season tickets to the Jets this year.
7:37
SPEAKER_00: So I'm sort of weighing, do I go to the Jets games or do I get NFL Sunday ticket?
7:43
SPEAKER_02: Um here's the deal.
7:45
SPEAKER_02: I like the Sunday ticket uh just because, like, for me, it's not a necessity because the Cowboys are on network TV every week, and that's the whole time team, that's the team I follow.
7:58
SPEAKER_02: Um, but I'm also a fan of the NFL, I'm a fan of the league, and so sometimes they're just games I want to see or players I want to see, and I want to see them when I want to see them.
8:11
SPEAKER_02: And so I like to have the Sunday ticket, and this is a very humble brag, but I set my house up way back when, 20 years ago.
8:23
SPEAKER_02: So they're in my game room.
8:24
SPEAKER_02: I've got one big TV in the middle that's about 75 inches, two 50s on the side, my iPad.
8:31
SPEAKER_02: I can basically be watching four games at once, and that makes me very happy.
8:36
SPEAKER_02: And so um that's worth it.
8:38
SPEAKER_02: The Sunday ticket allows me to do that, and so uh begrudgingly, I'll probably pay.
8:45
SPEAKER_02: Uh, we'll talk about this other part in a minute.
8:47
SPEAKER_02: At some point, though, because they're gonna keep going up every year.
8:51
SPEAKER_02: I wonder what the number for me will be where I go, you know what, bro?
8:55
SPEAKER_02: I'm good.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: Right.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: It's so here's here's my I I won't do Sunday ticket um because I don't watch, I don't watch, I don't have that significant level of an interest in in the NFL.
9:10
SPEAKER_00: But even if I did, even if I did buy Sunday ticket, there there's four or five weeks out of the year that are completely worthless of the 18 weeks, right?
9:20
SPEAKER_00: Thanksgiving week you can watch that there's no good games that are gonna be on Sunday ticket.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: Uh, really, from Thanksgiving until the playoffs, I think Sunday tickets value diminishes almost every single week because you there's a lot of games that are on, you know, they'll start to be on Saturdays, they'll start to be uh, you know, you're talking me out of you know special games on like Christmas Day and Thanksgiving.
9:45
SPEAKER_00: But more importantly, by you know early December, well, there's a lot of teams who you're not gonna watch at all.
9:53
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of teams whose games you don't care about.
9:55
SPEAKER_00: So for me, the value of NFL Sunday ticket diminishes rapidly right around Thanksgiving.
10:01
SPEAKER_02: This the way you broke it down, man, it's worse than driving a car of a parking lot.
10:05
SPEAKER_02: It's losing interest.
10:06
SPEAKER_02: The deeper you go into the season, it's losing value.
10:09
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
10:10
SPEAKER_02: Uh yeah.
10:11
SPEAKER_02: I hadn't thought about it like that.
10:12
SPEAKER_02: And I don't know.
10:13
SPEAKER_02: We need to look it up.
10:14
SPEAKER_02: I wonder if they offer it on a week-to-week basis.
10:17
SPEAKER_00: I don't think I don't believe that they do.
10:21
SPEAKER_00: But what they the other thing that I thought was uh sort of revealing about the pricing strategy this year uh from from YouTube uh is that if you're a new customer and you sign up for YouTube TV, it's actually only$240 this year.
10:37
SPEAKER_02: Oh, it's the old big switch thing.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: We'll pull you in.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: So they'll get returning customers like you are paying$138 more a year than somebody who's new to YouTube TV.
10:49
SPEAKER_02: You know what, man?
10:50
SPEAKER_02: That's the American way.
10:51
SPEAKER_02: Screw your current customer in an effort to get a new customer.
10:56
SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's the American way.
10:57
SPEAKER_02: It happens in almost every business.
11:00
SPEAKER_02: We take care of the new customers who've given us no loyalty at all.
11:04
SPEAKER_02: And you know, our loyal customers say man, we appreciate you.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: It's it's what you know, it's a there's only one Sunday ticket, so it's not like you can purchase it elsewhere, right?
11:16
SPEAKER_00: So it's essentially boils down to what it what becomes an asymmetric negotiation with you as a customer.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: There NFL Sunday ticket can say, well, we'll we want you to pay 480, and you say no.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: And they said, Okay, then you can't get it anywhere else.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: So you either pay us 480 or you go away.
11:33
SPEAKER_00: And I think you were right.
11:34
SPEAKER_00: I think what ends up happening in any sort of situation like this, uh, is because I've negotiated contracts with sports leagues and sports entities and other other places where you get to a point where you go, okay, well, I have to have this product because there isn't another, there's another lease.
11:52
SPEAKER_00: You know, it's either this, so so the negotiations are, you know, you're in a bad position as a negotiator, same as a consumer.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: You're what do you do?
11:59
SPEAKER_00: You either go without it or you pay a lot of money for it.
12:02
SPEAKER_00: But I do think you're right.
12:03
SPEAKER_00: There's going to be sort of this break-even price where people are going to balk.
12:08
SPEAKER_00: And I'm guessing, as you said it, I'm guessing YouTube has probably seen that once you hit the$500 threshold, there's probably a large drop-off in update.
12:20
SPEAKER_00: So that's probably why it's sort of creeping closer and closer to$500.
12:24
SPEAKER_00: That is a 100% speculative guess on my part, though.
12:27
SPEAKER_02: Nah, for me, it's gonna be closer to 400, bro.
12:31
SPEAKER_02: Could be, you know, because there's always that number where you just go, I don't know, man.
12:36
SPEAKER_02: And again, because like for me, the Sunday ticket is great if you're my sister, who spent 15 years living in Chicago and is now transformed into a huge Bears fan, but she lives in Philly, so she's not getting the Bears every week, and she wants to watch the Bears every week.
12:58
SPEAKER_02: So the Sunday ticket to her makes sense.
13:01
SPEAKER_02: I'll pay this$400 and I'll see my team every week, and I'm good with that.
13:06
SPEAKER_02: And so I think I think if uh if you're a fan and you're out of market for your team, Sunday ticket is easy the way to go, and it's it whatever it costs is whatever it costs.
13:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it will be right, right.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: That's it's it's kind of like if you have a son or a daughter who's playing a non-revenue generating sport in college, and you can't go to all their matches or games or meets or whatever, and they say, Hey, you can watch your daughter who's a swimmer at Clemson, and you can watch her do you know all her swim meets at Clemson and we'll charge you 50 bucks a month or 100 bucks a month, and you'll go, that's totally worth it.
13:44
SPEAKER_00: I would do that, you know.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: I I whether it's 50, 100, or 200, I probably would do it.
13:48
SPEAKER_00: I mean, yeah, yeah, right.
13:49
SPEAKER_00: So I think it it depends on the type of consumer who who they're you know who who they're who they're targeting.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: Um, but I think you're right.
13:56
SPEAKER_00: I think there's multiple types of of consumers for sure.
13:59
SPEAKER_02: Now that price, the one I said, 378, as far as I know, doesn't even include the red zone.
14:06
SPEAKER_00: It does not.
14:06
SPEAKER_00: The red zone is another 42 uh off another 42 dollars a month.
14:12
SPEAKER_02: Which at one level seems insane.
14:15
SPEAKER_02: Now, I'm not a red zone person, and I figured out why.
14:21
SPEAKER_02: I haven't played fantasy football in forever.
14:25
SPEAKER_02: And I'm already watching the games, I care about who scored this or that.
14:31
SPEAKER_02: And to me, the red zone is really for gamblers and fantasy football players, and that's fine.
14:36
SPEAKER_02: It's not for me who's just watching the games.
14:39
SPEAKER_02: You know, I don't want to say as a wholesome fan, but I don't have no very different experience.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: I agree.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: Now, here's here's a sneaky little thing that you can do.
14:49
SPEAKER_00: Okay, it's not sneaky, it's it's an underappreciated thing that you can do.
14:53
SPEAKER_00: So as you got, as you know, everybody knows, I'm in the New York market.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: So there's some weekends that at one o'clock Eastern, I get a Jets game, and at four o'clock Eastern, I get a Giants game.
15:04
SPEAKER_02: Right.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes imagine getting a one o'clock Jets Dolphins game and then a four o'clock Giants Commanders game.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: Okay, you might as well just not have any football on.
15:14
SPEAKER_00: So so on those, on those wonderful Sundays when I get a New York, such a New York winning doubleheader like that, I sneak over and I watch uh the NFL channel.
15:27
SPEAKER_00: The NFL channel has a what I would say is a slightly delayed version of Red Zone, but it's very comparable to it.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: So I'll I'll dip in and out of the NFL network's uh coverage between especially between one and four o'clock Easter for sure when there's when there's a lot more games.
15:44
SPEAKER_00: And I now I don't know the answer to this.
15:47
SPEAKER_02: I don't know the answer to this, so I'm asking you.
15:51
SPEAKER_02: Now that ESPN has bought them, do they even exist anymore?
15:55
SPEAKER_00: They do.
15:56
SPEAKER_00: They do.
15:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean what you what you see is as I think people probably know, ESPN had uh some layoffs in the last, I don't remember if it was last week or in the last two weeks.
16:07
SPEAKER_00: And I think, and I haven't, I I'm I'm pretty certain, but but I'm not 100% sure, but I'm I'm pretty certain that a catalyst for those layoffs were uh, you know, as you combine the two networks in some way, yeah, uh, you know, you you're you're able to uh uh you know hire a few people, uh hire fewer people or or get rid of certain positions, apparently.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: I don't know, but I do know that there's still two distinct networks.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: They're just it's just owned and run by ESPN right now.
16:33
SPEAKER_02: All right.
16:34
SPEAKER_02: All right, well then that is a uh I will take that under advisement and uh and do that a little bit.
16:39
SPEAKER_02: But Sunday ticket, uh it's time to pay up.
16:43
SPEAKER_02: Uh I am going to pay.
16:45
SPEAKER_02: Although you got me thinking, man, I'm probably going to pay.
16:49
SPEAKER_02: But uh as their price continues to creep up, because it'll go up again next year, you know, I may be on the way out.
16:58
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, just because uh I'm a value guy.
17:03
SPEAKER_02: Like uh, and I tell this people all the time because different people have different values.
17:08
SPEAKER_02: For example, I used to tell this to my friends when when they when they make a judgment about you uh in a conversation, you say somebody might spend$300 on a bottle of wine and you would look at them and be like, you're insane, and somebody else would spend$300 on a shirt and you would look at them and go, God, you're stupid.
17:30
SPEAKER_02: And it's just about whatever your value is.
17:34
SPEAKER_02: Um and so for now, the NFL Sunday ticket has a value to me, but it's it's closer and closer to the yeah, I'm good.
17:46
SPEAKER_02: Because again, I live in Dallas, I'm gonna watch the Cowboys.
17:49
SPEAKER_02: You're never going to not have a Cowboys game on.
17:52
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, it's always gonna be sold out.
17:56
SPEAKER_02: Uh, they're always on national TV, so you you don't need the Sunday ticket to watch the Cowboys.
18:01
SPEAKER_02: It's all the other stuff I like the Sunday ticket for.
18:04
SPEAKER_00: I get it, I totally get it.
18:05
SPEAKER_00: But bottom line for me is until I can see a value in the sort of the last third of the season for the Sunday ticket, I don't think it's worth it.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: And I also can now consume and watch so many games on streaming platforms that I probably have already, or I have you know the opportunity to get them for free for various reasons.
18:31
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna see mostly what I need to see anyway.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: So it's just not it's just not a value for me.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: And also, I also travel a lot of weekends, so I miss a few Sundays, you know, between in September and October.
18:42
SPEAKER_00: So uh, you know, so for me it doesn't quite hit the value proposition.
18:46
SPEAKER_00: I think if this was my job and I was doing nothing but watching NFL, I think it would be worth it.
18:51
SPEAKER_00: But I can't see myself buying it any other way.
18:53
SPEAKER_02: Uh bottom line for me, I'm getting a Sunday ticket this year, but they're entering closer and closer to uh driving me away.
19:03
SPEAKER_02: So they kept me for at least one more year.
19:06
SPEAKER_02: Right.
19:06
SPEAKER_02: I can't make no promises after that.
19:08
SPEAKER_02: Um, as we move into our next NFL topic, because it's a perfect segue, the running back appears to be back.
19:16
SPEAKER_00: And here's what I mean: Ezekiel Elliott, our Ohio State homeboy, Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott, yes.
19:25
SPEAKER_02: Shattered the running back market.
19:27
SPEAKER_02: Uh, I can't remember when it was, but he signed a six-year 96 million dollar contract.
19:31
SPEAKER_00: Okay, look before you before you get into that, one of the most ridiculous deals that I've ever seen by your your your owner at that point.
19:40
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, keep going.
19:41
SPEAKER_02: Yes and no.
19:43
SPEAKER_02: It's a six-year, 96 million dollar deal.
19:47
SPEAKER_02: Anyone who looked at the contract, which I did, uh, and a lot of people did, it was really more of like a four-year, 60 million dollar deal, because there was no way they were ever going to pay him the last two years of the deal.
20:00
SPEAKER_02: Um, and you know, the problem with uh Ezekiel Elliott is uh, and the team is they didn't get the value, you know, he wasn't as good those last few years as he was as he had been previously, and so it became a bad deal and kind of an albatross and all of that.
20:16
SPEAKER_02: And what happened was other teams looked at that deal and said, Oh, hell no.
20:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, that well, they paid, I guess they paid so above market rate for that deal at that time.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: That's what I'm saying.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: But but I but you're right, you're right.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: The the result of the deal was was not good.
20:32
SPEAKER_02: And because they they overpaid so much and the product and the ROI return on investment was so bad, and the fact that just as they were doing that, it felt like every other team in the league had said, you know what, we don't want to go with this superstar running back anymore because they're beat up, they're hurt, their careers only last four years, they fall off a cliff at 28.
20:56
SPEAKER_02: So let's go to the tandem system.
20:58
SPEAKER_02: We got Taylor, we got Pink.
20:59
SPEAKER_02: Let's give them both 150 carries, or we'll give one guy 200 carries, we'll give the other guy 150.
21:05
SPEAKER_02: We'll keep them both healthy.
21:06
SPEAKER_02: We don't have to pay either one of them as soon as your deal is up.
21:09
SPEAKER_00: Well, you didn't you you even saw that with Ohio State and Trevion Henderson and uh Kinshawn uh Judkins uh worked out perfect with them.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, exactly.
21:18
SPEAKER_00: I mean, perfect.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: Right.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: Um, because they always had a good run around the field.
21:22
SPEAKER_02: Uh when one of them was banged up, the other one took a heavier load.
21:25
SPEAKER_02: They were different kinds of backs.
21:27
SPEAKER_02: Uh I mean it was uh that's to me one of the big reasons why they won the championship, is they had a legitimate running game.
21:34
SPEAKER_00: Cannot agree with you more.
21:35
SPEAKER_02: And both of those dudes were a threat to take it to the house.
21:39
SPEAKER_02: And it I mean, it's it they were impossible to stop with that running game and then what they had on the outside that year.
21:45
SPEAKER_02: Um but now you're seeing the running back start to creep back in.
21:50
SPEAKER_02: B.
21:50
SPEAKER_02: John Robinson had a huge year last year, 2,300 yards, total offense.
21:55
SPEAKER_02: Uh Jamar, uh Jameer Gibbs.
21:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
21:58
SPEAKER_02: Jameer Gibbs.
21:59
SPEAKER_02: I haven't Old man moments from time to time.
22:01
SPEAKER_02: And Detroit had 18 touchdowns last year.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: Maybe those are maybe the two best backs in the league.
22:08
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you could throw Saquon in there.
22:11
SPEAKER_02: Christian McCaffrey used to be there.
22:13
SPEAKER_02: I don't think he's banged up so much that he's he's still a really good back, but he's on that next year.
22:19
SPEAKER_00: If I was starting an NFL team today and I had to pick one, and I had to pick one running back, it would be either Gibbs or or Robinson for sure.
22:26
SPEAKER_02: And the only reason you wouldn't pick King Henk, King Henry is he's 34 years old or 33 years old.
22:32
SPEAKER_02: But the NFL hasn't wanted the paybacks.
22:35
SPEAKER_02: Well, Bijan Robinson this week gets three years, 75 million, 50 million guaranteed.
22:40
SPEAKER_02: Jamar Gibbs is up.
22:41
SPEAKER_02: Jameer Gibbs is up next.
22:43
SPEAKER_02: He'll get a deal basically in a very similar range to that.
22:49
SPEAKER_02: I like B.
22:50
SPEAKER_02: John Robinson's deal for one reason.
22:53
SPEAKER_02: Um they're basically doing to him, basically, what the Cowboys did to Terrell Owens back in 2007 when they signed.
23:04
SPEAKER_02: What was that?
23:05
SPEAKER_02: What happened was the TO they were like, you know what, TO?
23:08
SPEAKER_02: Now they didn't do it for the same reasons, but the deals are similar.
23:12
SPEAKER_02: They're like, TO, we love your talent, but let's admit it, you're very volatile.
23:18
SPEAKER_02: So we're not gonna give you a five-year deal and spread it out.
23:22
SPEAKER_02: We're just gonna give you all your money right now in three big chunks, eight, eight, and eight.
23:27
SPEAKER_02: So he signed three years 25 million.
23:30
SPEAKER_02: And that that means you get all your money, but you don't get a big signing bonus blah da, or you know, whatever it is, you all your money is a finite thing.
23:39
SPEAKER_02: So if something happens, we can get out of this deal very quickly.
23:43
SPEAKER_02: And so with B.
23:43
SPEAKER_02: John Robinson as a running back, second contract, three years is fine.
23:49
SPEAKER_00: Um, because but he's also getting 51 million guaranteed, which is a huge amount for a running back.
23:55
SPEAKER_02: Huge for a running back, but in the big picture, it's not a lot of money in the big picture.
24:00
SPEAKER_02: No.
24:00
SPEAKER_02: For for NFL athletes.
24:03
SPEAKER_02: That sounds crazy, but yeah, it's a good deal for both sides.
24:07
SPEAKER_02: He gets his money, and if he gets hurt or if he falls off a cliff because it happens for running backs at a much higher rate than anybody else, they're not on the hook.
24:17
SPEAKER_02: That contract can easily disappear without really having big cap impact on you.
24:22
SPEAKER_02: And uh, as opposed to like a five or six-year deal where something happens in year one, you're like, oh my god, we gotta take an 80 million dollar cap hit.
24:30
SPEAKER_02: It won't happen with you.
24:31
SPEAKER_02: So it's a smart way to do the deal.
24:33
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I I get it, but it's still when you start to look at some of these other numbers, it's kind of it's kind of crazy how little he's played, he's paid, considering he's one of like the premier players in the entire league.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: But there's basically NFL pays four positions from what I can see: quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, and wide receiver.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: Those are the four positions that the NFL mostly pays.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: And just to give you am I missing one, do you think, or not?
24:58
SPEAKER_02: But those are the you probably and I haven't looked up the numbers, so you're probably missing cornerback.
25:04
SPEAKER_02: But the difference is I'm not sure there's cornerbacks to be paid.
25:09
SPEAKER_00: If there were, yeah, because nobody wants to play corner anymore.
25:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so yeah, if if there were, they pay them because think of what you're saying.
25:18
SPEAKER_02: You're saying you're paying left tackles, they protect the quarterback, you're paying defensive ends, they sack the quarterback.
25:25
SPEAKER_02: You're paying wide receivers, they go deep and score touchdowns.
25:29
SPEAKER_02: That means you also got to pay cornerbacks because they stop you from doing that, right?
25:32
SPEAKER_02: Right.
25:33
SPEAKER_02: But there's not, there's not a uh there used to be, you know, three or four shutdown corners.
25:39
SPEAKER_02: I'm not sure.
25:40
SPEAKER_00: Well, but I think that's a good point.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: I think a cornerback who is a shutdown corner, a Darrell Revis or or the equivalent, will get paid at that level.
25:51
SPEAKER_00: They're just you're right.
25:52
SPEAKER_00: There just there just aren't any.
25:54
SPEAKER_00: But to give you an idea, Zay Flowers, who is a who's who's the number one wide receiver on the Ravens, he also signed a contract this week.
26:04
SPEAKER_00: And Zay Flowers might be uh where do you think Zay Flowers is in terms of wide receivers in the NFL?
26:11
SPEAKER_00: 25th?
26:12
SPEAKER_00: 20 to 30?
26:13
SPEAKER_02: I don't think he's that low.
26:15
SPEAKER_02: But uh I don't know.
26:17
SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
26:18
SPEAKER_02: I don't think he's that low.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: Okay, well let's say but he's definitely in the he's definitely not in the top tier.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: 15 to 20.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: Is that fair?
26:26
SPEAKER_00: That's probably fair.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's say he's 15 to 20.
26:29
SPEAKER_00: He's getting four years, 140 million with a hundred million guaranteed.
26:36
SPEAKER_00: So you're getting let's let's be generous.
26:39
SPEAKER_00: Let's say he's the 15th best receiver in the league, which I don't even know close to being the 15th best receiver in the league.
26:45
SPEAKER_00: Right.
26:46
SPEAKER_00: The 15th best receiver in the league is you know making getting twice the amount of guaranteed money, which is to me the big number, yeah, and is getting one more year, and is getting what is that, 140 times uh four four for one forty.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: That's 35 million a year.
27:05
SPEAKER_00: So he's getting 40 percent more than uh than B.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: John Robinson, who's the best running back in the league, arguably.
27:14
SPEAKER_00: That'll just show you the disparity in in what positions are valued in the NFL.
27:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, here's the you you raise a uh you raised a point, and that and that all of that is true.
27:25
SPEAKER_02: And here's why.
27:26
SPEAKER_02: Clearly, they value receivers more than running backs, you know, because of you know, running backs again, collision positioning, they're hurt all the time.
27:38
SPEAKER_02: You can find them a little easier than you can find elite receivers, uh, or even really good receivers, and so you pay them more because of that.
27:47
SPEAKER_02: And the other thing is what Baltimore don't have no receivers, so Zay Flat.
27:53
SPEAKER_02: That's true too.
27:54
SPEAKER_02: Is more valuable to Baltimore, like for example, and you can this the difference we're not even stretching it.
28:02
SPEAKER_02: George Pickens is playing on the franchise tag this year in Dallas because they got CD Lamb.
28:08
SPEAKER_02: What is he?
28:08
SPEAKER_00: He's at what 28 to 30 this year, or is he more than that?
28:11
SPEAKER_00: I don't even know.
28:12
SPEAKER_02: No, he's like 28, 27 million.
28:14
SPEAKER_00: 27, 20, that's what I thought.
28:15
SPEAKER_02: If he was uh if he was a free agent, he would be getting 39 million.
28:20
SPEAKER_02: But Dallas, like my point is Zay Flowers doesn't get four years and 140 million if he's playing in Dallas because they're like, dude, we got CD land.
28:29
SPEAKER_02: Uh you know.
28:30
SPEAKER_00: So if Zay Flower, okay, so let's do this exercise.
28:34
SPEAKER_00: If Zay Flowers became a free agent, what would he get paid?
28:38
SPEAKER_00: He's gonna get paid at least what he's getting paid in Baltimore.
28:41
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, because again, some team that needs you will pay you.
28:47
SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, the Cowboys, if you think about it, for whatever reason, Cowboys are good at figuring out wide receivers.
28:54
SPEAKER_02: Whether it's CeeDee Lamb, they drafted, whether it's Dez Bryant they drafted, Miles Austin was an undrafted free agent for a while who showed up and had like four great years and disappeared.
29:04
SPEAKER_02: I mean, they can find receivers, they get them for whatever reason, they know how to draft them, develop them, whatever.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: Oh, I think I think the Cowboys are a very good drafting team in general.
29:16
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they just play bad in the playoffs.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: All right, but that's right.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
29:21
SPEAKER_02: Oh, I looked up our thing because the reason why we couldn't remember any cornerbacks is the best cornerbacks right now are all finishing up their rookie deals.
29:31
SPEAKER_02: So they haven't gotten paid yet, which is Pat Sertan just got paid from Denver 96 million dollars,$25 million a year.
29:40
SPEAKER_02: Um, and then you got um Christian Gonzalez for the for the uh uh Patriots will be coming up, and Daryl Stingley Jr.
29:49
SPEAKER_02: Uh he's coming up too, and those guys will be paid all in the Sertan money thing.
29:54
SPEAKER_02: And so you're seeing, but even there, so you're seeing cornerbacks uh 25 million.
29:59
SPEAKER_00: That's the same as B that's yeah, exactly.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: I think there's four positions that are paid.
30:04
SPEAKER_02: Okay, we've we've I think you I think you're right.
30:07
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: Which which uh you know, and and you look, and I think what what happens with the running back is that the to me, the value, much in the same way that the value of Sunday ticket diminishes as the season goes along, the value of a good running back goes up as the season goes along.
30:27
SPEAKER_00: So if you can make it, if you can make it to the playoffs and you've got a running back who's a durable you know running back, uh, and you use them like like the Seahawks did with Kenneth Walker versus the Ravens, who decide never to run uh Derrick Henry in the in the playoffs, but that's a different story.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: But if you use the running back, the running back running back's value is actually greater, I believe, in the playoffs than it is during the season.
30:56
SPEAKER_02: Now, Kenneth Walker by all counts had a great season last year.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: He's an outstanding running back.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: He had a great, he had a great sort of like November and December last year.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: He didn't even have a great season.
31:07
SPEAKER_02: Because he ended up getting three years, 43 million, 28 guaranteed.
31:13
SPEAKER_02: You know what I'm saying?
31:14
SPEAKER_02: But if you notice it, they're giving these running backs three-year deals on their second deal because traditionally you can look at all the stats.
31:22
SPEAKER_02: Running backs, 95% of running backs fall off a cliff at 28.
31:27
SPEAKER_02: That's I'd always heard is it 28?
31:29
SPEAKER_02: I'd always heard 30, but it's 28.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:33
SPEAKER_02: And uh at some other point during the season, we'll we'll do a historical dive on it.
31:38
SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's it's insane how they fall off.
31:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but I think that's um but that's a really good point.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: I hadn't noticed that, but you're right about the three-year contracts because it's after that rookie contract to only pay them because right, because you're 24.
31:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I was gonna say 24, 25.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
31:56
SPEAKER_02: And we want to be out when you're 28.
31:57
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
31:58
SPEAKER_02: Because there'll always be a Derrick Henry, Emmett Smith, Adrian Peterson, outlier.
32:06
SPEAKER_02: But we don't know you're the outlier until you get there.
32:08
SPEAKER_02: Right.
32:08
SPEAKER_02: So once you once you prove you're an outlier, we might go two-year deals after that.
32:13
SPEAKER_02: Right.
32:14
SPEAKER_02: Because we just don't know.
32:16
SPEAKER_02: Um, and so we're thinking, we're talking about it right now.
32:19
SPEAKER_02: Those are the outliers, Emmett Smith and Adrian Peterson and Derek Henry.
32:25
SPEAKER_02: And I mean, even off the top of my head, Ladanian Tomlinson was somebody, Hall of Fame running back, who went from like 1,800 yards at 27 to like 1100 yards at 28 to like 600 yards at 29.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: And then out of the league, basically, yeah.
32:44
SPEAKER_02: He might have played one more year, but it was insane.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: Right, right, right, right.
32:47
SPEAKER_00: He was it was like up here, and then it was done.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: But but he was there was a stretch of like three years where he was.
32:55
SPEAKER_02: Oh, he might have been longer than that.
32:58
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he's a great receiver.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: He he he was great.
33:00
SPEAKER_02: Or or Marshall Falk, if you remember Marshall Falk was no, he was the he was the he was Marshall Falk 2.0.
33:07
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
33:07
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: I remember years and years ago, I worked at CNN Sports and I was doing a uh a lot of work around the draft special, and Marshall Falk and was one of the players who who, you know, most of the NFL uh you know GMs and scouts and everything were saying he's gonna be a great back, he's gonna be the back.
33:32
SPEAKER_00: And he had a rough couple of he he didn't he didn't live up to his potential the first couple of years, but man, once he went with the Rams, oh my goodness.
33:39
SPEAKER_02: Um I went and looked it up real quick.
33:42
SPEAKER_02: Here, here it is.
33:44
SPEAKER_02: Uh Ladanian Thompson didn't have fewer than 1200 yards his first one, two, three, four, five, six, seven seasons in the league.
33:54
SPEAKER_00: That's still his 28, basically, 29.
33:57
SPEAKER_02: At 28, he had 1,474 yards.
34:00
SPEAKER_02: Remember, I said they fall off the cliff after 28.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: Uh-huh.
34:03
SPEAKER_02: At 29, he had 1,100 yards.
34:06
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
34:07
SPEAKER_02: At 30, he had 730 yards.
34:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:10
SPEAKER_02: At 31, he had 914 yards.
34:14
SPEAKER_02: And um at 32, he had 280 yards and was out of the league.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: Did he did he say the Chargers the last couple of years?
34:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't, I just don't remember.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: Now I played with the Jets.
34:25
SPEAKER_02: And see, the other thing is he had that that last year at 28, he had 1,474 yards, averaged 4.7 yards to carry.
34:35
SPEAKER_02: The next year he had 1,100 yards, averaged 3.8.
34:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:40
SPEAKER_02: The year after that, he averaged 3.3.
34:42
SPEAKER_01: Right.
34:43
SPEAKER_02: I mean, dude, it's insane out.
34:47
SPEAKER_02: Um, and what I had a running back coach tell me, and this is not breaking news, but he was telling me the difference is when you're 22, you see the hole, and you're through the hole.
34:57
SPEAKER_02: When you're 28, you see the hole, and just as you get through it, somebody trips you up and you stumble through it.
35:04
SPEAKER_02: And so when you're 22, you got 15 yards off that run.
35:09
SPEAKER_02: At 28, you got two or three.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: And that's just because you're you're lacking the burst or you've lost a little bit of speed, or what is it?
35:15
SPEAKER_02: When you came in the league, you look at Zeke Elliott.
35:18
SPEAKER_02: When he came in the league, oh my gosh, he's probably running 4-3-9.
35:21
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, by the time his career was over, if you put him on a 40, he's probably running 4-6.
35:26
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, that's a huge difference.
35:29
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's it.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: Would you would you even draft a running back out of college who runs a 4-6?
35:35
SPEAKER_00: He probably wouldn't.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
35:37
SPEAKER_02: So, yeah.
35:38
SPEAKER_02: You know, and uh it's wild because uh Zeke looked every bit the Hall of Famer's first three years in the league.
35:44
SPEAKER_00: It is if you look at his highlights from Ohio State his senior year, and then Dallas his first year in the league.
35:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, my goodness, amazing back.
35:56
SPEAKER_00: What an incredible back.
35:57
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the the the back that I always think about is Marcus Dupree from a million years ago.
36:03
SPEAKER_00: Right.
36:03
SPEAKER_00: When he his first couple of years in the league, or his last year, I think he went to Cal.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: Did he go to Cal or Oklahoma?
36:08
SPEAKER_00: I can't get it.
36:09
SPEAKER_00: Oklahoma.
36:10
SPEAKER_00: Oklahoma, yeah.
36:12
SPEAKER_00: Was one of the most amazing running backs I ever saw.
36:14
SPEAKER_00: And then he got injured.
36:15
SPEAKER_00: That was a different story.
36:16
SPEAKER_00: He got injured and looked like a totally different player, but he reminded me of Zeke.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: Early years, Zeke looked one way, later years, Zeke looked totally different way.
36:24
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, B.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: John Robinson, three years,$75 million, uh,$51 million guaranteed.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: A running back who got paid.
36:32
SPEAKER_00: What's your bottom line on that?
36:34
SPEAKER_02: Hey, the running back is back, and I'm glad to see him get paid because I grew up with the great backs in the 70s.
36:40
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we should well, we'll talk about that.
36:43
SPEAKER_00: Who your favorite back of the 70s is.
36:45
SPEAKER_00: But bottom line for me is I you know, you actually change my my thinking about this.
36:52
SPEAKER_00: Uh I think the running backs are fairly paid, and I think that the four positions that are highly paid in the NFL are the ones that deserve to be highly paid.
37:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh but but I do think a running back, a strong, good, reliable running back, is maybe is a quick as is of equal value as those four positions are when it comes to playoff time.
37:19
SPEAKER_02: Uh before we move on to uh state, don't forget to subscribe, rate, review.
37:23
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37:24
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37:25
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37:30
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37:32
SPEAKER_02: And also shoot us an email.
37:34
SPEAKER_00: Email us too, bottomlineonsports at gmail.com, bottom line on sports at gmail.com.
37:40
SPEAKER_00: We've had a couple uh uh we I keep getting these guest requests coming out this week.
37:45
SPEAKER_00: Somebody just sent us a wants to come on and talk to us.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know.
37:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that's good for anybody.
37:50
SPEAKER_00: If that, you know, people uh yeah.
37:53
SPEAKER_02: Now the question of the day for Ohio State is who the hell has them number one in a poll?
37:58
SPEAKER_02: Because I love the bug ass.
37:59
SPEAKER_02: I I got a lot of confidence in Ryan Day, what they're doing, but I'm also a realist.
38:04
SPEAKER_02: I'm not like many of my fan, my brethren to my fan base who are just insane.
38:09
SPEAKER_02: Why are you looking at me?
38:10
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, no, no, no, you're reasonable, you're rational.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: You're you're actually more pessimistic than me.
38:15
SPEAKER_02: And I'm just like, if you look at the roster and all the guys they lost, and you look at the schedule, I didn't realize, man, I was at the gym last week and they popped the schedule up brutal.
38:28
SPEAKER_02: I just I just saw one snippet of it.
38:31
SPEAKER_02: I didn't realize we have a four-week stretch where I think it's at Indiana, at USC, off, and then home against Oregon.
38:42
SPEAKER_02: I thought they're not going three and oh in that stretch.
38:45
SPEAKER_00: They're not for sure.
38:46
SPEAKER_00: Two and one would be perfectly fine.
38:48
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but so but the coach's poll.
38:50
SPEAKER_00: Here's the coach's poll.
38:51
SPEAKER_00: Coach's poll is Ohio State first, which I I don't get it.
38:56
SPEAKER_00: It put coaches poll.
38:57
SPEAKER_00: We were taping on a Wednesday night.
38:59
SPEAKER_00: The coach's poll came out a few hours ago or in the last 24 hours.
39:03
SPEAKER_00: Ohio State first, Oregon second, Georgia third.
39:07
SPEAKER_00: Where's Texas?
39:09
SPEAKER_00: Texas is fourth.
39:12
SPEAKER_00: Notre Dame.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: Notre Dame coached by Ohio State's Marcus Freeman is five.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: Um Indiana is six.
39:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, interestingly, Ohio State got the most first place votes.
39:24
SPEAKER_00: Indiana got the second most per first place votes, but they're six in the poll.
39:28
SPEAKER_00: So what this is, and what you said to me beforehand is, and I think you're right, is uh before we started taping, you said these coaches don't know anything about what they're doing.
39:39
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's why Georgia's third and Ohio State's first, because they've been the two best programs over the last 15 years.
39:44
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
39:44
SPEAKER_02: Texas to me, or Oregon, if you wanted to, should be the number one team in the country.
39:49
SPEAKER_02: Um, I think Ohio State is uh top five based on how we do these things before the season.
39:56
SPEAKER_02: But they they missed too many guys off of defense to just plug them back as a number one team.
40:02
SPEAKER_02: Plus, they got a new offensive coordinator.
40:04
SPEAKER_02: You're not sure, you know.
40:06
SPEAKER_02: I don't I don't like Arthur Smith.
40:07
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, we'll see what he does.
40:09
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
40:10
SPEAKER_02: And uh, you know, so there's enough question marks not to put them number one.
40:15
SPEAKER_02: That's just a lazy vote to me.
40:17
SPEAKER_00: I I think you've got, well, there's a couple things about Ohio State this year that I'm concerned about.
40:22
SPEAKER_00: One is I don't think there's any, I don't think their offense is going to be dynamic in any way unless the ball somehow gets into Jeremiah Smith's hands.
40:33
SPEAKER_00: I just don't.
40:33
SPEAKER_00: I don't think the play call, I think I agree with you about Arthur Smith.
40:36
SPEAKER_00: I don't think the play calling is going to be dynamic.
40:38
SPEAKER_00: I don't think they have a uh they don't think they have a sort of a B plus A minus running back.
40:45
SPEAKER_00: Um their offensive line looks like it's good.
40:49
SPEAKER_00: Uh I just don't see this dynamic offense emerging, and they're gonna need that to your point, because I think their defense is gonna struggle, and they're gonna struggle against the big boys.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: And the big boys this year, they're playing Texas, Oregon, USC, and Indiana.
41:08
SPEAKER_00: And those are we've got Iowa, and Iowa's sneaky good.
41:11
SPEAKER_00: Iowa's not bad, and you know uh and then and then there's a rivalry game at the end of the year.
41:16
SPEAKER_00: So, you know, the the this is these are this is a tough schedule.
41:21
SPEAKER_00: So I don't I I actually not only do I not think Ohio State's gonna be number one, I think Ohio State's 50-50 of making it into the playoff this year.
41:29
SPEAKER_02: Well, they'll make the playoffs, they'll make the playoff if they're eight and five.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: Um okay, maybe not eight and five, but you know, I don't think they'll make the playoffs if playoffs if they have more than two losses.
41:40
SPEAKER_00: I don't.
41:42
SPEAKER_02: Oh, I do.
41:43
SPEAKER_02: Depending on if they lose to three top 20, top 10 teams, they'll they won Ohio State in there.
41:50
SPEAKER_02: So you have to you have to give them a reason not to put you in there.
41:54
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
41:55
SPEAKER_02: Now you can come up with a reason for them not to put you in there, but it's gonna, to me, given the schedule, uh, it's gotta be more than three losses.
42:03
SPEAKER_00: Uh Ohio State draws a huge television audience every time they play.
42:07
SPEAKER_00: That's very true.
42:08
SPEAKER_02: And the reason for a playoff is we're just like Notre Dame last year, or you know, we don't want to punish you if you lose at Texas, at Indiana, and uh, you know, home against Oregon, and all the games are competitive and decided in the fourth quarter.
42:26
SPEAKER_02: You know, you're still one of the top teams in the league.
42:28
SPEAKER_02: We'll give you a bad seed and put you on the road somewhere, and then uh you'll prove whether you deserve to play or not.
42:34
SPEAKER_00: All right, who's playing the national championship this year, if you had a guess?
42:36
SPEAKER_00: It's oh my god.
42:38
SPEAKER_00: Early, early days.
42:39
SPEAKER_02: But if it's it's it's having given one ounce of thought to that.
42:42
SPEAKER_02: So just off the rip, because they have a cupcake schedule, I'll say Notre Dame.
42:48
SPEAKER_02: And because if it doesn't happen this year, I don't know when it's ever gonna happen.
42:53
SPEAKER_02: Texas.
42:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I'm uh I'm uh we have one of them I agree with you.
42:58
SPEAKER_00: I think Notre Dame's gonna make it.
43:00
SPEAKER_02: Um you think Arch is not going to make it?
43:03
SPEAKER_00: No.
43:03
SPEAKER_00: I think um I think Miami's gonna make it again.
43:08
SPEAKER_00: Really?
43:09
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I think Miami's gonna make it because they play in an incredibly weak conference.
43:16
SPEAKER_00: Um, and they also have, and you saw it in the you know, you saw it against in against Ohio State.
43:22
SPEAKER_00: Ohio State came out completely flat in the playoff last year, but but you saw it against Ohio State.
43:27
SPEAKER_00: They had the bodies to play against Ohio State.
43:29
SPEAKER_00: They have the bodies to play against a big, you know, a top Big Ten program and a top SEC program.
43:34
SPEAKER_00: So I think they're gonna win all their games.
43:37
SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna be in far less beat up than a lot of these big schools.
43:42
SPEAKER_00: And I think they'll that's why they'll be able to go for on a three or four game run in the national uh national title game.
43:47
SPEAKER_00: Exact same reason I think uh Notre Dame uh will do the same thing.
43:50
SPEAKER_00: So I think those are my two teams that I think will be in the national championship.
43:54
SPEAKER_02: That'll be very interesting.
43:56
SPEAKER_02: Very interesting.
43:57
SPEAKER_00: But Buckeyes, Buckeyes, not only will they not make the playoff this year, I don't think, I'm not even sure they're gonna have the same quarterback at the end of the year.
44:04
SPEAKER_00: That's insane that, man.
44:06
SPEAKER_00: Here are my wacky predictions, and I'm probably wrong, and I hope I'm wrong.
44:09
SPEAKER_00: I have nothing against Julian saying, I really don't.
44:11
SPEAKER_00: I just think that if Ohio State runs into any a couple of losses here, a couple of losses there, I think they'll experiment with another quarterback.
44:19
SPEAKER_00: I just do.
44:20
SPEAKER_00: Could be.
44:21
SPEAKER_02: Uh bottom line for me, it's gonna be a very interesting season for Ohio State.
44:26
SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day, they'll be in the playoff, and then we'll figure out what happens once they get there.
44:30
SPEAKER_00: Uh, bottom line for me, this is I don't think Ohio State deserves to be number one preseason.
44:36
SPEAKER_00: I think they're 50-50 to make the playoff.
44:39
SPEAKER_00: But I also think that this is the year where programs are gonna realize that scheduling is actually more important than almost anything else right now.
44:53
SPEAKER_00: Because if you can get yourself a schedule where you have two losses or fewer, you know you're gonna get into the playoff if you're a big name program.
45:01
SPEAKER_02: Yep, sounds good, my friend.
45:03
SPEAKER_02: Uh, he's Jeremy Peake.
45:04
SPEAKER_02: I'm John Jacques Taylor.
45:06
SPEAKER_02: This has been yet another episode of the bottom line on sports.
45:09
SPEAKER_02: Talk to you guys next week.
45:10
SPEAKER_00: All right, we'll talk to you next week.