Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Two views on what the latest Iran talks mean for Lebanon and regional conflict

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Two views on what the latest Iran talks mean for Lebanon and regional conflict · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: We now have two views on the US Iran negotiations
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  Speaker 1: and the agreement that ended the war. Mowen Robani is
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  Speaker 1: a former UN official and is a non resident Senior
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  Speaker 1: Fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. And
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  Speaker 1: Jonathan Kiricas is a retired Israeli lieutenant colonel who led
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  Speaker 1: forces in Lebanon and Gaza and served as the IDF's
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  Speaker 1: international spokesperson.
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  Speaker 2: He's now a senior.
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  Speaker 1: Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's Thanks very much,
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  Speaker 1: welcome both of you to the News Hour. Mowen Robonni,
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  Speaker 1: let me start with you, and let me start with
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  Speaker 1: today's news that came out of Vice President Vance that
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  Speaker 1: it was lifting sanctions on Iran selling oil for sixty days.
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  Speaker 2: What's your response to that announcement.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think this is an indication that the Memorandum
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  Speaker 3: of Understanding is beginning to produce serious negotiations between the
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  Speaker 3: United States and Iran. I think we have to disabuse
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  Speaker 3: ourselves of the illusion that an agreement can be reached
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  Speaker 3: within the next sixty days. At least it could set
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  Speaker 3: the basis for constructive diplomacy and create the space and
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  Speaker 3: the additional time that will be required to reach an
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  Speaker 3: agreement ultimately between the US and Iran. I think it's
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  Speaker 3: a positive and hopeful sign.
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  Speaker 1: Jonathan kricas US lifting sanctions on are on selling oil
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  Speaker 1: sets the basis for diplomacy.
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  Speaker 2: Do you agree?
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  Speaker 3: No?
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  Speaker 4: And I think that history teaches us that paying bloodthirsty
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  Speaker 4: murderers and terrorists, whether they are of a country or
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  Speaker 4: just a terrorist organization, never ends well. When you pay
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  Speaker 4: terrorist money, they're usually emboldened. And I will not be
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  Speaker 4: surprised to see that the money that the Iranian regime
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  Speaker 4: will make out of this very very generous American concession
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  Speaker 4: won't go for the benefits of the Iranian people. It'll
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  Speaker 4: go towards armament, weapons, trying to fund friz balan Hamas
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  Speaker 4: and other terrorist organizations. And I don't think that much
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  Speaker 4: positive will come out of it.
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  Speaker 2: Mawen and Raboni.
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  Speaker 1: The other major news from the US today was the
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  Speaker 1: announcement of a mechanism of deconfliction.
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  Speaker 2: That's the phrase that JD.
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  Speaker 1: Vance used for regional ceasefire, essentially for the war in Lebanon,
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  Speaker 1: and the Vice President gave an example.
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  Speaker 2: He said that a low level has belat.
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  Speaker 1: Operative, who of course has been fighting Israel who was
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  Speaker 1: not following orders but fired a drone at Israel and
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  Speaker 1: then Israel fired back.
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  Speaker 2: So is this a step in the right direction?
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  Speaker 1: And what do you think about Vance's characterization of the war.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the establishment of a deconfliction cell regarding
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  Speaker 3: Lebanon is also a positive development, and it shows that
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  Speaker 3: we're making the transition from the general political statements that
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  Speaker 3: were included in the memorandum of understanding, that we're transitioning
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  Speaker 3: to serious, detailed technical discussions and actual implementation. And the
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  Speaker 3: purpose of this deconfliction cell. You know, the unstated premise
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  Speaker 3: is that Israel appears determined to continue and where possible,
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  Speaker 3: to escalate its military aggression in Lebanon in order to
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  Speaker 3: both continue with its objectives in Lebanon and in order
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  Speaker 3: to seek to derail US Iranian diplomacy. And this is
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  Speaker 3: essentially the US and Iran together putting the shackles on
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  Speaker 3: Israel and preventing it from carrying out those intentions and
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  Speaker 3: those plans.
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  Speaker 1: Jonathan Henriquez, is Israel trying to derail this diplomacy?
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  Speaker 4: I think what Israel is trying to do is to
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  Speaker 4: defend itself and live in peace in its internationally recognized
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  Speaker 4: borders without the attack of Iranian proxies. Chrisbella being the
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  Speaker 4: most dangerous and the best armed one, Chrizbeala is now
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  Speaker 4: in trouble and that's why they're masters the Iranian regime
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  Speaker 4: is they're rushing to defend and trying to save Isbealan,
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  Speaker 4: and that is what this is about. This is not
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  Speaker 4: about theial sovereignty of Lebanon. It's not about the Lebanese people.
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  Speaker 4: The Lebanese people, by the way, are represented by the
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  Speaker 4: Lebanese government, and the Lebanese government says very clearly that
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  Speaker 4: they don't want Chrisbala as an armed foreign entity in
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  Speaker 4: their country and that fris Ballad doesn't have the legitimacy
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  Speaker 4: to fight against Israel. And communications was never a problem.
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  Speaker 4: There already is a mechanism. I've been part of it.
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  Speaker 4: I was a liaison officer to you and peacekeepers in Lebanon,
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  Speaker 4: and I was part of the mechanism that carried messages
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  Speaker 4: between Israel and the Lebanese owned forces. But the problem
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  Speaker 4: is that with an organization like Chrisbeala, a jihadi organization
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  Speaker 4: that is sworn to destroy the state of Israel and
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  Speaker 4: kill as many Jews as they can. The problem was
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  Speaker 4: never how can we communicate? The problem is why do
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  Speaker 4: they exist on our northern border? And why has Iran
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  Speaker 4: been able to provide them with weapons and money as
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  Speaker 4: they have been for over so many years? And why
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  Speaker 4: is this now happening and why is this connection being
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  Speaker 4: made between the Strait of Homus and Lebanon. I think
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  Speaker 4: the Lebanese people, Israetes and many other people are going
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  Speaker 4: to regret if this is the way things go forward.
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  Speaker 1: Owen Rabonni, why do we need another mechanism? What difference
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  Speaker 1: can it make?
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  Speaker 3: Well, look at what happened with the previous mechanism that
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  Speaker 3: was established in November twenty twenty four as part of
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  Speaker 3: the ceasefire agreement that was reached. Then it was thoroughly ineffective.
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  Speaker 3: Israel violated that ceasefire on a daily basis, killing hundreds
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  Speaker 3: of Lebanese, conducting assassinations in the heart of Beirut. And
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  Speaker 3: so the purpose of this new deconfliction cell as it's called,
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  Speaker 3: is to find a more effective alternative that can actually
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  Speaker 3: restrain Israel this time around. You know, the question was
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  Speaker 3: just posed, why does HUSBANDA even exist? Well, there's a
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  Speaker 3: very simple reason, and that is because in nineteen eighty
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  Speaker 3: two is Reel conducted a failed campaign to destroy the
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  Speaker 3: PLO in Lebanon and its invasion enough Lebanon at that time,
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  Speaker 3: and that set the basis for the establishment and emergence
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  Speaker 3: of has Bubbla. It's certainly true that has Bubblah would
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  Speaker 3: like to see Israel dismantled, and it's equally true that
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  Speaker 3: Israel has an official policy of destroying Hasbubbla. That's why
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  Speaker 3: it's been fighting in Lebanon and occupying a good part
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  Speaker 3: of Lebanese territory.
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  Speaker 1: Jonathan Karrikaz, you're shaking your head just in the last
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  Speaker 1: minute that we have.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, let's remind our American viewers that Hisbalah is a
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  Speaker 4: US designated terror organization with buckets of American blood on
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  Speaker 4: their hands, let alone Israeli blood, and they are nothing
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  Speaker 4: of the Likebalah are a proxy organization of the Islamic
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  Speaker 4: Republic of Iran. They are foreign they serve foreign interest
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  Speaker 4: those of Iran. They do not represent Lebanon. And that's
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  Speaker 4: not me saying it. That is the democratically elected government
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  Speaker 4: in Lebanon that says so, and frankly, it makes me
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  Speaker 4: puzzled why the US is conducting two parallel processes. One
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  Speaker 4: the negotiations with the Islamic with the Islamic State of
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  Speaker 4: Iran regarding Homus and linking it with Lebanon, but then
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  Speaker 4: also parallel to that, trying to make peace between Israel
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  Speaker 4: and Lebanon. These two processes, these two tracks, cannot work together.
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  Speaker 4: They are mutually undermining each other. And I really hope
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  Speaker 4: that the ones where the solvereign state of Israel speaking
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  Speaker 4: with the sovereign state of Lebanon without Iranian interference is
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  Speaker 4: the one that will prevail for the benefit of everybody
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  Speaker 4: in the region.
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  Speaker 2: We'll have to leave it there.
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  Speaker 1: Marien Rabani, Jonathan Conriquez, thanks very much to you both.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you.
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