Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Inside Line Ep4 2026 | Bristol Uncertainty & IndyCar Betting Edges

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Inside Line Ep4 2026 | Bristol Uncertainty & IndyCar Betting Edges · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: F1 Capper here, we got another episode of Inside Line with Ryan Booth. got, this is episode four and we are going to talk about some NASCAR, some IndyCar and no, we won't be talking F1. Maybe we'll hint it, I don't know. I don't think there's really much to talk about. It's ⁓ not a pleasing series, it just feels dirty at times. Ryne: Yeah, if I had to sum up all of my F1 thoughts in just quickly, it would just be, it sucks. Like it sucks and I don't even enjoy watching it and I'm not even upset that these races got canceled. @f1capper: It does. does. The the yeah, honestly for me I personally I liked it because I'm like, ⁓ I get it You know this little break before because and then I can focus on like Indycar and that's good But we only have one Indycar race in April. So it's like well might as well take a vacation. So ⁓ Ryne: April's a tough month because we get the NASCAR Easter break, so you lose a Sunday, and then Indy's got one, and yeah. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Honestly, I was okay with that. I was okay with having a Sunday where I'm like, wait, there's literally nothing for me to, I can just do whatever I wanna do. So it was kind of nice just to break away because you know, the rest of the season I'm just locked in and then NFL starts and all that stuff, fun stuff. But yeah, so we're gonna talk some NASCAR and let's maybe talk about ⁓ the last race maybe. Do you wanna start with Rockingham? even though it was just a O'Reilly series and trucks, mean, or do we want to just... Ryne: Yeah. ⁓ Rockingham Trucks was fun as someone with a lot of honey cut. It was fun for a while then it wasn't. And then it got fun again. And then it ended up not being fun. That the truck was a rocket. And then I remember early in the race, I was like, @f1capper: it Everyone was on Honeycutt. ⁓ Ryne: I guess it was just Heim. Like, what was I thinking? Not doing Heim? And then at the end, it's like, ⁓ he's got this. I hope his teammate doesn't get in the way and screw this up. And then I get that. There you go. @f1capper: Ha- I'm all along. It's funny because you know, I was just watching and I think a lot of people were on honey cut and I was, I just couldn't do it. I couldn't do it. I had my moments with him before and I was just like, nah, nah, nah, nah, I'm not going to do it. But then as I started watching, I usually like to see through stage two, you know, especially with like a guy like Hyman there, like, is he going to keep this pace? Because if so, there's no doubt in my mind, I'm going to jump on Kal-She and see what his odds are. And what do you know, we get there and think he was at like 58 cents and then 61 cents. And I was like, I gotta do this. I gotta do this. And so glad I did. Ended up working out really well. So good for you, Haim. Ryne: Yeah, I had a lot of honeycomb from earlier in the week when he opened at seven, which aged really well. I can pat myself on the back like, wow, look at all the value I got. That was awesome. It doesn't pay out anything, but I can call myself smart, I guess. @f1capper: It's funny, it's because now I've been paying attention to it for the past few years and I'm like getting, I'm like really kind of finding like how some of these drivers are actually doing more in a more consistent basis. And every time I've seen Honeycutt, like he's good, but it just seems like, especially this year as I watch him, he's like, just, he can't put a full race together. He just could not have it from beginning to end. Like if he wants to win, he has to do it from beginning to end. None of this, like you can't leave the door open for anyone else. And I just, that's why I couldn't do it this past weekend. I was like, I just can't do it. But yeah, no, Honeycutt actually, I hope that he actually wins one. I don't know if he will, but good for Heim. Yeah, I think so. ⁓ But yeah, yeah, yeah, Heim just, Heim time, right? Like he just. Ryne: I think he will. He's gonna get one. Heim won't be in every race, so Honeycutt will get one. I don't know if he'll get it with Heim in the race, but he'll get one eventually. @f1capper: No, he won't. Yeah, he should. He needs to just put it together, full race. That's it. And he'll get it. ⁓ But the O'Reilly series was actually pretty fun. I tweeted. Well, for me it was. So I tweeted that I had Cletus matchups. I had, these are the local books if you're listening. I. Ryne: I mean, kind of. It could have been really fun. @f1capper: work with like Zeeb on that where we were scanning our local books and we're trying to see like what odds and apparently they posted matchup odds before which I don't really see as often, right? Like pre-practice and qualifying. And he messaged me, he's like, oh my God, they have two matchups, Sieg and Retzlaff over Cletus. And I was like, you're kidding, right? And it was at minus 190 minus 185. I like, I'm maxing it out. Whatever the most I can put on these things. Ryne: Yeah, like actual respectable guy. You could have picked anyone in the field to match up with him and I'd be like, yeah, I like that. @f1capper: Anyone, yeah. Minus 190, minus 185. It's crazy. Ryne: Yeah, you texted me about that and I was jealous. I was like, I hope your guy takes referrals. I was like kind of pissed I couldn't get any of that. That would have been the whole portfolio. @f1capper: It was so good. It was so good without those. mean, I mean, it was a good weekend. So I can't lie about Raj Raj hit for us. We were texting about that. I was like, you know, I kind of I kind of like this play now. And because I think you brought it up first. And I was like, yeah, you know what? He's looked pretty good through the practices. And then we said top five, five to one. It's like, let's do it. Let's let's fucking do it. Yeah. Five to one. Ryne: That was a great price. Yeah. And he had a rough, one of the restarts in stage three, he got kind of bullied too. Like, I don't think he wasn't going to win that race, but he could have probably pulled off a top three or maybe been in contention to try and run down Szwalicz. I don't think he would have gotten there. That truck was a, that car was fast. @f1capper: Yeah. No. Gee was the one time, man, the one time I'm like, you know, should I do it? Should I do something? And I was like, no, no, no, no. And he fricking wins. was good for him though. I mean, missed out, but I can't be mad. Ryne: Well, there was one car faster and it just didn't, it could not execute a pit stop. was all over day from when it opened. had day 20 plus at some, on some bet. @f1capper: Yeah. He looked really good. He looked very, very fast. Yeah, that's unfortunate. Yeah. Ryne: That was sad. And that's what's on for I've been on day a couple of times now. He wasn't like, he was in use 50 to one in races looked pretty fast. Obviously never put together a win, but was contending. Now he's cut down to 20. Now he did that. And like all, all those numbers are gone forever. And it never got a nice outright cash out of it, which is just depressing, but we'll see. That was, that was tough. He was. @f1capper: Yeah It's a- yeah. Ryne: Every pit stop was just like, it felt like betting on Blaney. @f1capper: Yeah, I was about to say that's a blaney situation constantly with him, it seems like. Ryne: Not to compare, Nupelaini is obviously much more talented, but it felt like stay in the lead, fastest car, pit stop, bad. @f1capper: Yeah, and I missed out on two head-to-heads with that just because of that. There were close ones, but that's kind of sucked. I was hoping he would at least be in the top three and just couldn't get that. ⁓ yeah. Tough one to swallow for sure. All right, so we got Darlington and that was just a redic masterclass it seemed like, huh? And then Brad K. Ryne: It should have been. That was a tough one. That was not fun. I mean, yeah, good for him. Yeah. ⁓ man. I had so much Brad and some RFK stuff and if Reddick didn't exist, he was going to get there. He was fast. He ended up being really nice to have the second best car at 40 to one, but that also does not pay. Those are really fun last couple of weeks with some, some day, some, ⁓ @f1capper: I know. I mean. Ryne: I forgot who he was. ⁓ Honeycutt and Keselowski. I had Hamlin at Martinsville. Like, ⁓ that was really fun. All of that. Fast cars don't win. But yeah, Redick, like, deserving winner. I couldn't even be that mad. It was just he was by far the best. He deserved the win. coming from the back a couple of times, a few issues, a couple, like it was, he was just on a different planet. @f1capper: Honey cut. and that one yeah Well, how about that though? The Toyotas are, I mean, they're pretty well rounded. Most, all the tracks so far, seems like. They seem to have a car, except Briscoe. Briscoe's not feeling it, it seems like this year so far. I mean, he's not being comfortable with, well, what do you think, what's going on there? Ryne: I mean, he had a few things happen in the first, he got wrecked out in the first few races. Like I think it was, I don't know if was Phoenix or the race after Phoenix. He was first in qualifying order, which tells you all you need to know like Jace Briscoe last in the metric. Not really any fault of his own. I don't know. He's good enough and we've seen him do it in this car. I, he'll get back to it. I don't think he's like bad by any means. It's just been rough. @f1capper: It is, Yeah. No, no, but it just brings me to think like, is it something where we need to look at the opportunity even bet like it's gonna be greater or is there actually something wrong there? that's. Ryne: I don't think he knew there was a point at Darlington where it looked like he might win. He was the fastest car for one of the stints and almost right. I was like, ⁓ wow, look at this guy. He was putting up fastest lap times. I think I even tried to live bet him and I got locked out, which I guess ended up working out. But he'll he'll be in the mix. He'll be around that the JGR team as a whole. Speaking of I have a new favorite JGR driver this week, but the JGR team as a whole looks like they're on point. @f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ Yeah, I know who it is and we'll get to that in a second. ⁓ but yeah, Martinsville, you bring up Martinsville with Hamlin, unfortunate situation, but Elliot though, Chase Elliot, huh? Like he just came out of nowhere. It seems like that's an Elliot thing to do these days where he's just like out of nowhere, he wins a race. Like where did this come from? He weren't anywhere near the top three that and then all of sudden he's winning. So. Ryne: Yeah Yeah, that caused a whole thing on Twitter and NASCAR discourse. mean, at the end of the day, we'll see the fastest car or the best car. No, they made a strategy gamble and they got lucky. Like, congratulations. It's like, there's nothing wrong with it. I mean, that's racing. Good for them. I'm a little annoyed as someone that had Hamlin and Penske. that, again, it's been a fun couple of weeks, but you know what? That happens. @f1capper: Bye. And it works. They got so lucky. Well, yeah. But they said that's why they did it. They were taking the risk. It's like, go for it or not. And let's just hope for it. And it just so happened the timing was just uncanny that he got that pit and there he is. Ryne: Right. You went from having a zero percent chance to win the race by just doing what everyone else did to we can do something different and have a chance to win if we get lucky and they got lucky and they won. also like it sucked that Hamlin got into Blaney at the end there would have been like I think Blaney might have had a chance to chase him down maybe. But I would have liked to see it at least. ⁓ And obviously that all went. to hell pretty quickly, that was extremely unfortunate. @f1capper: Yeah. So I thought it was an exciting race. I know that there was a lot of people, especially ⁓ one prominent tweeter, said it was put up a poll and there's a lot of back and forth behind like, ⁓ was it a good race? I thought it was a good race and I'm just an outsider looking in. Ryne: I mean, I thought it was fine. I would have liked it to be a little easier to pass. I don't love that Elliot was able to hold everybody off at the end there, but I wouldn't say it was like bad. Yeah. The Glock poles have gotten to a point where I... @f1capper: Yes. That's racing. Ryne: Don't even want to read the comments anymore because I can feel myself getting dumber at some of the takes in there. Like I was like, I don't think these people even like enjoy racing at all or I don't know. Like they want 36 Talladega's like what, @f1capper: ⁓ Well, this has always been my, it doesn't matter. I think maybe IndyCar fans are a little bit different. And that's just because they're just frothing for someone to pay attention to them. It's like the oldest child kind of thing. But most motorsport, in F1, it doesn't matter. NASCAR, no one is ever happy. It doesn't matter. You make a change to the car. someone's upset about it. You make a change to a track, someone's upset about it. There's always someone that's going to be upset with racing. It's just, it's, you will never solve for that. Ryne: Yeah, I... I think overall I've enjoyed most of the races this season, ⁓ throwing out the drafting tracks. I never care for those, but they are what they are. ⁓ But I think we've seen the best car win most of these races. Martinsville was an exception, but mean, Darlington Reddick was the best. Like Hamlin, very deserving winner in Vegas. I mean, you Blaney Bell duking it out in Phoenix. You could argue Bell was maybe a little better, but like those were the top two guys. They finished one-two. ⁓ @f1capper: Yeah. Ryne: And Reddick at Kota was a beast. Like, I'm happy with that. There's some stuff happening in the races. We've seen a lot of long green flag runs, which I really like. Apparently some people in the Glock poll think that sucks, but whatever, screw them. That's my favorite kind of racing when you actually get to see them go. That's why I hate stage breaks so much. And I am enjoying that people are starting to really turn on stage breaks, which is nice. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. Ryne: a lot of the community's been calling that for a while, and now it seems to be gaining a lot of traction, which I really like. @f1capper: Yes. Ryne: I mean, Hamlin talked about on his podcast last week with stage breaks. They just take forever too. Like if you're going to have stage breaks, like, come on, let's get it moving a little bit or even just on any yellow. I know there are some where you got to repair something or there's fluid on the track and it takes a while, but we seem to be running so many laps on the yellow. it's just like, I can only watch so many Peyronie's disease commercials. Like I, like we got to get back to racing a little quicker here. Like we can do side by sides if we have to like, like figure it @f1capper: Yeah. Ryne: out somebody figure it out. @f1capper: Definitely. I think that is just, especially at road courses, like what are we doing? Just let them go, let them do their thing. You're going to get cautions. We know that. And I understand it's for a point system, but I mean, let them race, let them, you know, maybe, I don't know, do it halfway through if you want. I don't care. Don't do two. I just think that forced cautions I've never been a fan of. Ryne: Yeah. It's like, I can live with, I don't even hate the stage system that much. Just don't take a break. Don't do it. Don't throw a yellow. okay, these agreed upon laughs. You still have crew chiefs making strategy decisions on when do we want to pay it? We want to be out here for these points. Like great. @f1capper: Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Ryne: or maybe the first one's a stage caution, the second one's not. I don't know how you wanna do it, but if we can get rid of, just get rid of stage breaks, please, especially at road courses. They don't belong anywhere at road courses. And if anyone's ever watched a NASCAR road course, you know you're gonna get cautions at some point, or any NASCAR. Cautions are gonna happen. @f1capper: 100%. Yeah, there's always gonna be. just, cautions are going, yes. It's like, let's just put it on them. And then you get, I agree. I think you could still keep the points once that, like it gets to that lap, boom, okay. We'll keep it going. And then let the strategy dictate what they do next for maybe stage two or the entire race. Like let them dictate it themselves. Put it on the track. So, Bristol, this weekend. We got short track, huh? How are you feeling? Yeah? Yeah. Ryne: Let's go. I mean, I don't really know what to think. There are some people claiming online to like know what these tires are going to do or know how Bristol is going to run. I think they're full of it. I have no idea how this is going to go. I'm excited to find out, though. The two races last year couldn't have been more different. We're not entirely sure what we're going to get. Apparently, these tires are going to be better at a range of temperatures. I don't know. mean, we've seen tires with no fall off in practice that are blowing up in the races and we've seen vice versa. I'm. @f1capper: I'm gonna trust, I'm gonna trust it is going to be better, like more durable tires, just because that's just what tire manufacturers are going for, right? They've had a lot of data, they have it every, so I am going to trust it. And I know that you're not the only one. I've been hearing this guy's name for a long time and I'm starting to think, this, do I really? put hard earned money on this guy and his name is Ty Gibbs. Ryne: Yeah, let's just do the Gibbs talk. ⁓ @f1capper: Yes, let's just get right into it. Ryne: I was excited to see some places open last Monday, which was pretty incredible when he opened at 14, which was a no brainer for me. And I was like, ⁓ I like Ty Gibbs. I thought I was gonna be not on an island, but then a couple of days later, it was like, ⁓ okay, the entire world likes Ty Gibbs. So I'm not special at all. @f1capper: Everyone. Everyone. No, I've been hearing his name in our Discord come up. ⁓ Zebe loves him, so you can give a listen to his podcast if you're listening to me. He's the one that I collab with on the local books too, so he loves him and I'm just like, I don't know, man. I don't know if I could do this. I don't know. Ryne: I will say if I didn't have 13 and 14 and 12 in pocket, I don't know if I'd play sub 10, which is where he is now. Yeah. But. @f1capper: No, no, don't touch it. Don't touch it. Don't touch it below. Yeah, if it's eight to one, I'm sure at this point, I don't have it up. Maybe it's on another book, I'll check, but I would not do anything less than 10 to one for sure. Ryne: I probably wouldn't either. mean, it's probably still not a bad price, but. @f1capper: I mean, I'm already struggling with like 12 to one, like, but I mean, the fact that you got him at 14 went, okay, sure, right. Throw a little bit on there, who cares? I mean, at the end of the day, your best opportunity is probably gonna be just watch Kal-She, watch your live betting odds and you'll find who's doing well. Like you said, just let's first see how the tires perform, wait until stage two and then boom. Ryne: Exactly. And Gibbs is also a guy who's consistently practiced well. He has been closing shorter after practice and qualifying most weeks now. So I don't see why that'll be any different. And he'll probably open back up if he qualifies in the top 10, maybe top five that Toyota should be fastest weekend. And he's solid in practice. He's going to open back up at like seven to one. And it's going to be. Yeah, no one can touch that. @f1capper: So who's another driver that you think that is not in a Toyota? ⁓ I know you are. Ryne: I was gonna say all the Toyotas. So I think this whole thing hinges upon Kyle Larson. He's the favorite everywhere. mean, it's just, do you fade him and just be like, okay, the Chevy's are not good this year, Larson's not good. But at the same time, it's like, if Kyle Larson goes out there and dominates Bristol, you're gonna feel like an idiot. because all these prices look great. @f1capper: But his odds don't ever, but his odds like, what are his top three and top five odds? Are they even out? Ryne: It's it's not I mean, it's it's really hard to do sub four to one with what Larson has done this year It really actually speaking with Masters this weekend It kind of reminds me of Scheffler like you're getting the best Scheffler numbers You've ever seen at the Masters because he's looked not very good But then you feel like an idiot if he goes out and you're like, ⁓ look Scotty Scheffler's back like it's like I got all these great numbers on different guys. Yeah @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. if you fade them. That's why you look another way. That's why you go look at other opportunities. I'm definitely going to, of course, I've been like a hawk on SVG. I think he's been doing a lot better. How will he do? He hasn't really performed well here, but I will say, it is, it is, but his first year, I mean, I think he was like 38th something like that. And that track house car with Chastain, it was an 11th. Ryne: It's a tough track. It's a tough track to just learn. @f1capper: but last year he did even better. He got like 25th or something, I don't know, 26th and Chastain did worse. that, mean, he improved in that car, even though that car kind of went backwards. So, and he's been doing a lot better. So I'm going to keep attacking SVG odds head to head because they keep putting them with some schmuck and he's getting better. And his odds are priced pretty nicely, like minus 125, minus 135. So that's... still gonna be a move for me, like no question. I don't know, what do you think? Ryne: I have been on lot of SVG top tens at big prices and the matchups against those guys that tend to be back markers. don't know, I'm a little worried at Bristol. I'll probably just, I'm not gonna fade him, but I think I'm just gonna leave SVG alone this weekend. @f1capper: I'm not gonna do top 10s, but I think if I get those matchups, if I get some matchup and I'm not paying them large juice and I'm getting the right ones, but I'm not gonna be afraid to attack it because he's been actually very solid at backing this year, especially this year, head to head on ovals, short, it doesn't matter, super speedway, he's been doing a lot better. I don't know who else I'm getting. I have no idea what my approach is going to be, but a lot of that is because I haven't done a whole lot of research. was so into IndyCar data from Barbara. Ryne: The forwards are interesting. It's so, I mean, always the conversation always starts with Blaney. I find myself on Blaney almost every week. I mean, he'll be good. I mean, the thing is I can't play Blaney. I don't know if I can play Blaney at six. I can't play Blaney at what he's at right now. ⁓ @f1capper: Obviously. Yep. Surprise you didn't text me, hey, I'm on Blaney this week. It's still got time. Ryne: I'll probably end up adding him live. I want to do most of my stuff live this weekend just because of, we talked about the tires and I will openly admit I don't know how this is going to look. I think anyone who says they really do know is maybe lying. I don't know how you can accurately say this is what's going to happen. We can have an idea on it, but at this point, like it's really hard to play someone at five, six, seven to one when there's so much uncertainty. And it's like, I would rather see what the tires are gonna look like and if Blaney is really fast and he's four to one like I'd rather play four to one knowing this than play six to one now. @f1capper: Are you a bush packer this weekend? No. Ryne: Never on Kyle Busch. @f1capper: I can't wait to fade them. That's it. I'm gonna fade them. No question. Well, that was a mistake. That was a mistake. That was a mistake. It was a big mistake and it's a very, very embarrassing mistake. I'll try to do my best Trump impression. Like that was a mistake. It was a mistake. I hated that too. I was like, ⁓ my God, this makes me sick. I got it. Ryne: Well, you ⁓ were pro-Bush the other day. @f1capper: now back this schmuck and the whole time, that's all I was paying attention to outside of, I had a million things going like on my card and I was like, oh my God, I can't believe I'm watching this guy in 31st or whatever he was in. I was like, this is stupid, it's so dumb. Ryne: It's never good when you're a in the matchup. like you have to wait for the ticker to scroll and it's like, ⁓ it starts with a three. Like, ooh. @f1capper: Just so dumb. And I'm praying like, ooh, there's a caution here. Maybe he can get up a little bit. Maybe something happens to Barry. Nope. So ⁓ yeah, very embarrassing moment, but it's all right. It happens. Well, we've all had our moments and I've had, I just had mine. So ⁓ well, before we go on to IndyCar championship, let's, so do you have a championship bet? Ryne: for them. @f1capper: for NASCAR. I don't like doing futures that much. Ryne: I don't either, just with, again, we're getting back to tie gives, which it's a small point. It was a Gibbs 70, Gibbs 70 and 15 to one top three, like just on the off chance that what we're seeing is real and maybe wins this race and keeps going. It's 70. I wouldn't play anyone. No, it was not a Kal-She. @f1capper: If it only makes sense. Oh no. Oh no. Oh 70. No. Did you do it on cal she? Did you do it on cal she? Okay, so you could look on Cal-She and see if it's the same price. If he does win, maybe it increases and then you might be able to sell that contracts. So something. Ryne: Yeah. So I checked, Kelsey was not as good of a number, but I, whatever I did, I probably shopped and got the best one. I needed a big number to bet on Ty Gibbs. It's kind of how that goes. But other than that, everyone else is pretty fairly priced up top and five, six, seven to one with all the best drivers. Like I'm good not investing something that doesn't pay out till November on something that I'm not even sure how it's going to, yeah, it's just, it's fine. @f1capper: Okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, not interested, not interested, except if it's a pillow, which I might have. Yes, I can't wait. Ryne: That's true, we're both in the the pillow party. @f1capper: Hello man, speaking of, let's get to IndyCar. ⁓ So Barber, that was, we finally got to a track that was different. It wasn't like your typical street courses, right? Where there's a lot of hard breaking, long straights kind of thing and ⁓ barriers as well. So this was more of a different track. I love this track. I've driven it a lot on iRacing and it's just, it's a fun flowy track. So we saw Masterclass by Palo, of course. I think the, I mean, it wasn't shocking for us, but you know, Lungard was just, he drove out of his mind, man. I think, where did he start again? Like P8? I forget. Ryne: something like was because McLaren didn't know how to qualify or what I forgot exactly what happened but what a mess @f1capper: Typical, I have, they just, and that's something this year, it's carried on from last year into this year. And I'm trying to dig into the data to figure out what is it? What is it that they just, you know, they, even in this last race, Lungard was doing fantastic in that car. Siegel and Pato were nowhere. They were nowhere to be found. So there was obviously something inherently wrong with how they had their car set up. I know track position is key, but still, you had a guy be able to move up in that car the way he did to get to a podium, and then you have one of your best drivers who couldn't even get into the top 10. I don't even think he reached the top 15. So there's obviously something very, very wrong with McLaren. Trying to look into it a little bit more. I don't know what it is, but they have not looked good. qualifying for sure and it's not doing him any favors, especially at like a track like that. But I don't expect it to happen at like Long Beach if they do qualify worse. I expect that they will do better in the race versus, you know, this past track. Ryne: Yeah, Lundgaard can pass. Like, I'm not worried about him passing people. I've actually kind of liked him not qualifying well. It's opened up some decent podium numbers on him, which just keep hitting and some matchup numbers against some of the... I think I him in a Penske matchup. I was like, okay, this is hilarious. Like, let's do that. ⁓ @f1capper: Yes. Yeah. Ryne: And yeah, I don't know. I would have liked to see him qualify up front just to see what he would have had for Palo. I don't know if he beats him, but it would have been fun to watch and it kind of sucks to get robbed of that. @f1capper: I think I would have loved that too. I think he, you know, I think if he qualified P3 at least, definitely P2, I think he would have probably had him, I mean, remove the pit stop, the issue there, if they had a good pit stop, I think he probably could have, but that's something I'll go back and look at that. Ryne: He still comes out, what, a couple seconds behind on a clean pit stop, right? I think that's what it was. I did the math on it. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, I mean he was moving. He was moving. I haven't done the full lap by lap analysis on just him. I was just doing more of the teams and putting it all together with the race pace and stuff like that. So he looks very, very strong in that race. mean, for what he had to go through with that whole qualifying debacle and the team just could not move forward. He was able to push forward, so. It was good to see them. Good to see that he did it. And especially because I also had him in my eliminator pick. I was like, this is the best chance I think he gets. He's not gonna win. I don't know if he went to race, but we'll see. So we do have, ⁓ and then yes, let's talk about Penske. Penske at this track. Maluchis look great, but can we just talk about Scott a little bit here? Like what's going on with him? Like what are we? Ryne: He's killing me. It's like, ⁓ look how fast he is. This is a good number. ⁓ which session is he going to crash in? He was the fastest guy on track at Arlington through the first of all the practices, think, or almost all the practices. He was atop the charts for practice one at Alabama, at Barber. Or up there. He was up there, I think. @f1capper: You Yeah, most of them. Check very quick. Yeah. Ryne: We saw what happened. I'd like to see him put together a clean race. Like the car is clearly good. It has speed. Maluchas showed it too. And McLaughlin showed it in practice. I don't know what Newgard ends up to. @f1capper: Yeah. Practice one, he was P1 and then practice two, ⁓ that was the one he wrecked, right? Isn't that the one here? Ryne: Yeah, but I think he was up there and then obviously had that late lap going through the fence, which is not what you want to do. @f1capper: Yeah. Yep. I mean, he put a six eight before he wrecked and every the best time was Palo at six four six and then it goes six five six six. You know, I just, it's, it's becoming increasingly hard. There's gotta be a, I want to buy low on him. Obviously when I mean buy low, they're probably not going to change the price on him, but I am curious to see how they price Scott moving forward. I don't know, I just can't. It just makes it harder for me to wanna put some pre-race, like head to head or anything on him until after qualifying at this point. But honestly, that's just me being risk adverse. If the odds are there, you should really take him. But New Garden, mean, I don't know what's going on with him. I just don't have an interest in backing him unless it's an oval. I have no interest. Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about Long Beach. For a brief minute, a hot minute, Caesars did it again. They put out a bunch of props. And what sucks is because I don't have access to Caesars, I'm sitting there watching, I'm like, ⁓ my God, I'm clicking the buttons on there, and I'm like, I want all these. And I think Nathan in our Discord, he has access, so he's always jumping in, so. Ryne: Yep, for the ovals. Wait for the Indy 500. @f1capper: get into our Discord, he's gonna post some plays in real time. But they put props, man, they had these top 10 props where they combine them and I remember they did the same thing for St. Pete's and I was like, ⁓ my God, this list, you could probably put blind every single one of them and you're going to come out, you're gonna profit from it. And what do you know, out of the 10 props they had at St. Pete's, I think seven out of the 10 hit. So they did the same thing and they took them down right away. Although Nathan got some of them in the top five. Ryne: They do that with every, cause they, it's top three, top five, and then those like parlay top tens or whatever, a couple other, I think they had even odd number winner. And then it's like, they probably take some action on it and realize they don't know what they're doing and pull the whole market down except for outrights. And it's like, okay, great. There it goes. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, they had this average speed prop again, which I did that in the last race. ⁓ I think the over under was 98.5, so that was something I wanted to go look back at because for the last race, that's what I did was I looked back at the past, I don't know, five years, I just did five, and because there was only one year which was, 2024, they had four cautions. All the rest were like two or less. And the less cautions, of course, you have a better average speed. So I'm gonna do the same exercise. Ryne: Yeah, that speed prop is basically betting over under cautions. Yeah. @f1capper: Basically. Well, because I was already in ⁓ under seven and a half race leaders, it doesn't matter how many drivers, so I was on the under on that, and then, but before that play, I was on the under four and a half drivers to lead a race, because I figured it was just gonna be two or three, and what do you know, it was just three, so all of it correlated, and they dropped the same props again. and he dropped the leaders, but they dropped the leaders down to four and a half, I think, because this is gonna be different type of track. You can pass at this track, but they had so many things. So if you're listening, have to be, like, you have to have Caesars loaded up on a Monday and just ready to go whenever you just refresh and have at it, go for it, because then they start taking in the money and then they just shut it down. Ryne: It's refresh all day. @f1capper: I wish they can offer that across all books and in Offshores because that's some primo stuff that they have. Those props are where it's at. ⁓ Ryne: Yeah, I mean, Caesar's actually opened Kirkwood the favorite, which I think is right. ⁓ A different, a different, a different spot open pillow, like minus one 80 or something like that. And that, which is, I mean, he'll probably just go and win now, but like hilarious. @f1capper: Yeah, plus 275. crazy. Yeah. Yeah, but you can, I'm gonna wait because it's everyone's back to Andretti. This is Andretti's track. Although I still think I'm gonna be fading Ericsson. I probably will back maybe considering power, but I'm not gonna be trust. I'm putting a trust into Ericsson. I just don't. And in Kirkwood you have to. You have to here. This could be. Ryne: I have some power in some Kirkwood and I've gotten pretty happy with it. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, so Power and Kirkwood, ⁓ let's see, McLaren, don't even think about it until after qualifying, just wait. Ryne: And even then it's like pretty much only Lune card. I have no interest in Pato or Seagull. @f1capper: This is the hard part. Yes, yeah. Joseph Newgarden though. What do I do here? Like this is, hey, ugh. Part of me, my mind wants to, because I'm like the odds have to be finally favorable for him, because you're going to see it head to head with him, and it's gonna be probably plus 150 Joseph Newgarden to someone in the top 10. ⁓ Ryne: Nothing. @f1capper: A lot of people are also excited about, I would say Felix, Felix Rosenquist here, which I can't get excited about his outright because when's the last time he's actually won a race? But I'm kind of intrigued now a little bit because he did have, mean, last year when they usually had a tire wear issue where they qualify so well, but then they start dropping back. He didn't really drop back here. So I wonder if he just knows how to take care of his tires at this place. What do you think of Felix? Ryne: I mean, I guess that the price I saw he opened a hundred somewhere and that's gone. That's probably a good play, but at the same time, it's so hard to see him winning a race when guys like Palo and Lundgaard exist, like, or Kirk would exist. is he going to beat these guys? No. @f1capper: But top three? Yes, I know. But if he has a, if he, no he won't. But if he has a top three odd, like you never know at a long odd, maybe I'd consider it. But I'm not gonna do it. I bring it up also just for fantasy purposes, pick-ups, which I won't talk with you about. And then, ⁓ head-to-head matchups like I'm like kind of considering do I Get my mind right for potential because there is probably going to be a Felix matchup I could see one being Felix versus Erickson. Yeah, or a group Ryne: or a group, something like that. Yeah, I have no problem backing Felix. I just like, I can't get there on outrights. For some people, maybe that's their, what they want to do, but. @f1capper: No, no. He's never, no, it's Palo or Kirkwood this weekend. Let's just be real, it's not gonna be anyone else. If it is anyone else, that would be wild. I don't see it, I don't see. Yeah, well, I actually think that we will see more Chevys in the top 10. It's, you know. Ryne: If it's a Chevy, that would be wild. We can see that. don't think we're going to win a race, but yeah. @f1capper: No, no, no, no. But like I think one of the props they put up was the over under four and a half, which was definitely favorable on the under, but I actually kind of liked the over. There's nothing other than, mean, was Stingray Robb was in the top 10 and he was in a Chevy last year. Like, come on, like there's, yes, exactly. So there's a chance you could see. And I think last year there was four, I believe there was four in the top 10. Ryne: Well, it's, if they, yeah, if they don't have problems, like all three Penske's are obviously capable of top 10 finishes, even Joseph Newgarden. ⁓ Lundgaard should be there, like he's there. Pato, you would think. Yeah. @f1capper: Yeah. You would think Pato should be in there. Like there's no reason he should not be in the top 10. Him and Lundgaard. Yeah, so I was like, and so Nathan was on the under, but I actually kind of liked the over. I think it, ⁓ vibes, it's all vibes. That's it. All vibes, exactly. Ryne: That's already five. Yeah, but we did say all three Penske's, but that means you need all three Penske's to not do something sticky. The odds of one of them doing something dumb is extremely high. @f1capper: Exactly. I don't know if I can if I'll yeah if they pops up again We'll see what the number is if it's at up like plus 130 140 I'd might I might take a stab at it. I think I might do that, but we'll see Championship It looks like it's Palo show still especially if he gets top three. I mean it's still gonna be his I Let's see. What's next. It's after Long Beach's IMS. So Ryne: Yeah. @f1capper: He probably could dominate there too. So, and then you have the Indy 500, maybe, maybe repeat. I don't know. But yeah, I'm still holding on to Palo. I've had him on Cal-She and my local book. I actually took him out minus 180 before the season. I was like, F this. think he's, I don't care what happens in the first four weeks, he's going to win it. So. Ryne: Yeah, and he can do that. Yeah. @f1capper: And the nice thing about my local book is it's not that I'm giving them money. It's like ⁓ a balance, yeah. It's the nice thing. So I still have a lot of cashflow that I can play with. So that's why I did that. Ryne: right in. Yeah. Yeah, I think the buy and sell angle is Kirkwood, as I think we both think he's the most likely guy to win the race. don't think there's enough... Juice isn't worth the squeeze there, even if he wins. If someone's a huge Kirkwood believer, I would buy now before Long Beach, but I don't see him. @f1capper: No. This is what I'm gonna be doing is I'm gonna have Cal-She loaded up and all I'm gonna do is see how is the race going because I am, know, what happened in Arlington was sector one Kirkwood was unbelievable and it's because of their hard breaking into the turn. So I wanna see, I feel like Genasi and that team will learn from what happened. and try to get it right for Palo here, it's gonna be a lot different. You don't have the massive long straight to, you have a long straight, but it's not gonna be the same. And I think that he actually gets it right. So watching as you kind of get through like a few pit cycles, and then you'll get to see like, is Kirkwood actually catching up or vice versa, what is happening? And then you can attack the odds because you know for a fact that Kal, she's gonna. present something good to you. So you gotta be ready with it. So, yeah. Ryne: Yeah, Kalci has been great for life. Kalci saved me on Svalich. I was able to get a little of that. He was trading at plus 270 when he was like minus 500 everywhere. mean, granted, you can't get a ton down, but it's enough to save some of the honey cut losses. Or not honey cut, yeah. And the day losses and the honey cut from the day before. Yeah, not from the same race, but yeah. @f1capper: I love it. I miss, I miss the- Yeah, I miss that. Yes, no. Yeah, that too. Yeah, it's tough too because sometimes you won't find a buyer or a seller to be able to buy those contracts. So it was tough because when I saw the number dropping from that two to one, I was trying to put in the order and I just could not get it. And it just. Skyrocketed at that point. I was like, ⁓ it's over. Yeah, it's over. It's not gonna happen That's why you got to be very quick to it and make that decision quick and own it if it doesn't work So yeah Yeah, man, this was fun. We are not going to talk f1 although I will say that Piestri did make it interesting though in that last race like do we feel like McLaren's finally finding their groove to think about with Miami Ryne: It's gone. Gone forever, yeah. I mean. Yeah, that was kind of nice to see him actually race. think we were both on McLaren over Ferrari things, which all turned out well at big prices because it was like we haven't seen McLaren do this. Like, why not back them at these prices? I guess I will say I had some some rough runouts in some of the races, but I think there was probably just karmic payback for having a lot of Antonelli and getting the perfect time safety car, which, yeah, I thank you. I probably did not deserve the Antonelli. @f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ thank God. Full disclosure, I was like, you know what? I'm gonna just take Russell to win this race on Cal-She. And then everything started going south. And the day of the race, was like, I mean, I'm bailing out of it. I'm just keeping it, but I'm just gonna double up on Kimi. And then when Kimi started like crap, I was like, you're kidding me. I'm not gonna even win any of this. And then he got to, I was like, thank God. And like, I needed that. Ryne: Yeah. Yeah, that was a nicely timed ⁓ safety card. I'll take it. @f1capper: Yeah, I'll take it too. ⁓ well, yeah, man, this was fun And we'll try to do another one. I mean we don't have f1 Maybe we can it's long beach is not next week. It's not next it's in two weeks maybe we do a another catch up and after we get through bristol and One more week of nascar and then we'll tease up the long beach stuff Ryne: We can sit, yeah, we'll have to do an episode to celebrate the Ty Gibbs win. So I'm excited, it's excited to do that. Me and I guess the whole internet. @f1capper: Okay, okay. Yes, yes, if that happens, will be very, I'll feel FOMO for sure, but that's not gonna happen. Not gonna happen, maybe. All right. Ryne: We'll see.