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Unlock the Must-See Picks for Week Two College Football! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
It's Week 2 in college football. Did we learn anything from week
0:06
1 or are we still clueless as to what some of these teams are
0:09
going to look like during the season?
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We're breaking it down and we're giving out our best bets for
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this weekend, guys. Hi, hello, welcome targeting
0:16
winners college football betting podcast.
0:18
I am joined by Tim and Pete. How we guys doing today?
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Doing great, doing great. Yeah, last week was not great.
0:26
We'll talk about that in a little bit.
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But feeling feeling excited for. This we were talking about last
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week was awesome. I was going to stay.
0:33
So let's let's let's think about what what we thought about week
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1. And let's start with the
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happiest man in the room right now, That guy in the upper left,
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Timmy. Well, as the brilliant and great
0:43
philosopher once said. Woo.
0:46
All right, Florida State. Ric Flair's a philosopher.
0:49
He's. The greatest philosopher this
0:52
world's ever. Seen you.
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Might be I don't. Know you may not like it, but
0:56
learn to love it 'cause you don't have a choice.
0:58
But yes, the evil empire goes down to Tallahassee, takes on
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America's team, the American team, the team of the people.
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They give the people what they want.
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They beat Alabama and the whole world celebrates.
1:08
He's celebrating. I'm not.
1:09
Celebrating. It was not a fluke this.
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He needs one more woo. Yeah, yeah, I I got plenty of
1:17
woos if we're looking for another woo, but.
1:19
Not a fluke, huh? So you're thinking that it
1:21
wasn't Bama that laid the egg, it was FSU that was awesome?
1:24
Is that what you're saying? So I just got a little graphic
1:27
here. If you're watching us on
1:28
YouTube, you can check it out. We got the Nick can't save them.
1:33
That is great. So, but you know, I did save
1:38
something from our little text chat in the middle of it.
1:40
I said that they blew some opportunities, that it should
1:42
have been a lot, the score should have been a lot higher.
1:45
I saw some of the supposed experts on Fox and ESPN saying
1:49
the same thing, that, you know, it wasn't for that muff punt at
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the end. It could have been a lot worse.
1:53
I'm not going to get too excited, but got to enjoy it
1:57
while it lasts because as we all know, college football is, you
2:01
know, it wasn't too long ago Mike Norvell was the worst coach
2:03
in the world and Caitlin the board was the next coming.
2:04
And now all of a sudden, Caitlin, the board is going to
2:08
get fired in two days and Mike Novell's coach of the year.
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So that could all change on Saturday.
2:12
So All in all, happy with the performance.
2:16
I don't know if you guys had any thoughts on it or I guess
2:19
eventually we can get to Darren's game, but.
2:22
I'll say something about it real quick.
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I mean, I, I, you know, FS, you look good.
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I, I, I questioned their defense openly in the last, last week
2:31
that I did not think that their defense was good and that they
2:33
were not going to be in the game because they couldn't, couldn't
2:35
stop Alabama. And I was wrong.
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They played well and so it was good to see you.
2:41
A team like that, a program like that, you want them to be good.
2:44
So it was good to see that. It was good to see it against
2:46
Bama because everybody hates Bama unless you're a Bama fan.
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So that's always fun. So yeah, I was, I was impressed
2:51
by your team. So that was good.
2:52
It was it was a fun watch. Darren.
2:57
Yeah, I mean, Bama looks pretty much ass.
3:00
There's really no way around it. And Florida State looks like
3:02
they're, they're well on their way to quadrupling that, that
3:06
two win total from last year. At the very least, if you're a
3:11
frequent visitor to coacheshotseat.com, we had Mark
3:13
Haynes on a couple weeks ago. He initially had key on the
3:16
border, 85th in his rankings going into Week 1.
3:19
He has now skyrocketed up to #7. Top ten, baby.
3:24
Yeah. Baby at least Alabama's top 10
3:26
in something, so if you haven't checked out his site, definitely
3:29
give that a look. coacheshotseat.com.
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But yeah, man, very impressed with the Seminoles.
3:35
Maybe Norvell's like a every other year transfer portal
3:37
genius cause like 2 years ago he was awesome.
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Last year it blew up in his face.
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This year looks like he's he's definitely got that team back on
3:44
track. So good for the Seminoles and
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Tim. Congratulations buddy it.
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Might just be the quarterback. You know, they they had it with
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Jordan Travis. And then, you know, last year
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they missed, obviously. And I didn't think they hit this
3:57
year. But then things come back to
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you. And I just remember watching
4:00
Boston College a couple years ago thinking, why can't we stop
4:03
this guy? Oh my God, everyone knows this
4:04
guy's running the ball. And I was like, Oh yeah, yeah,
4:07
he's on our team now. So that was pretty good.
4:10
And. I mean, Castellanos, he's a
4:12
little short dude. He starts running.
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He he just kind of looks like a toddler with your parents cell
4:16
phone and you're just trying to chase him through the kitchen
4:17
and you can't catch him. But you know, credit to Mike
4:21
Norvell for seeing something in him, and it looks like it's
4:23
working out so far. Well, they they kept talking
4:27
about how he was with Goss Malzan a while back and how the
4:30
two of them together, you know, reunited and it feels so good.
4:32
I guess that, yeah, there's something special there.
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Of course, he keeps going like this.
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Goss Malzano will be coaching somewhere else next year.
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So, you know, enjoy this while we have it.
4:42
But I second was want to talk about the Clemson, Clemson and
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LSU game. It was pretty interesting.
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I thought. I don't know if you guys gave
4:53
yourself gave them a grade is the way Dabo did yesterday, but.
4:56
We all hate Clemson. I think we were happy.
4:59
Yeah. They still can't run the ball.
5:02
We talked about their inability to run the ball last year.
5:04
They still can, apparently so. Yeah, I wasn't sold on on
5:08
Nussmeyer, but I kind of looked at it.
5:12
He had some great throws. I think I changed my mind on
5:14
him. He had a throw that was called
5:15
back maybe in the third quarter or early 4th.
5:19
He put it right in the bread back.
5:20
The even the people on TV were talking about it's either a, a
5:24
touchdown or he's out on the 1:00.
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And then the referees said that, you know, the they slowed the
5:30
instant replay down to like .1 millimeter or something and like
5:34
the one hair of the ball touched the ground.
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So he didn't complete the catch or whatever.
5:38
But that was a total NFL throw. Put it right, right in the bread
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basket. No one else could have caught
5:43
that. He made a couple of those.
5:45
So I think I may change my mind on on that's fine a little bit
5:50
as far as Heisman going, my Heisman pick, almost 300 yards
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passing, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions.
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If he keeps that going, that would be fantastic.
6:00
And my last note, well, a couple of other last notes here I was.
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Oh, and one with the back door covers.
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So I'm going to keep track of that.
6:07
So good old, some freshman kid from UTSA, they put him in with
6:13
like 30 seconds left and I said this is not going to end well.
6:15
And sure enough, like 15 seconds left in the game, like a 30 yard
6:19
pass was like here it is, here it comes.
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Yeah, so. So.
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What do you think about Miami, Notre Dame?
6:32
Darren, your turn to ranch. I'm just, I'm just going to keep
6:35
this somewhat brief. As I mentioned before we we
6:39
started recording here talk before the game was was the big
6:42
problem with Notre Dame was you had no idea what you were going
6:44
to get out of CJ Carr. Freshman quarterback never threw
6:47
a pass going into a tough Rd. environment.
6:49
All this other nonsense coming out of that game.
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I don't think CJ Carr is the problem.
6:55
I I think he played fairly well everything considered.
6:59
The problem is our new defensive coordinator.
7:02
He's a friggin moron. I don't understand how you do
7:05
not blitz Carson Beck at all. And I swear every time a Miami
7:10
receiver caught a pass, there was no Notre Dame defender even
7:12
on my TV screen. So I'm not really sure what
7:15
they're doing defensively, but they need to clean it up quick.
7:19
They have the bye week before they host Texas A&M.
7:23
And again, the other side of the ball, I don't know how you have
7:25
Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price and they touched the ball like a
7:29
combined 15 times. I don't know how great House has
7:33
an awesome playoff and you target him two times.
7:36
I just, I, I fail to understand what these two guys are doing
7:41
and I don't understand why Marcus Freeman isn't beating the
7:43
ever loving crap out of them at half time or even after the
7:47
game. So not really sure what's going
7:49
on with the coordinators. Not really sure why your best
7:52
players are not touching the ball.
7:56
But I I at least the quarterback looks good, so there's that.
7:59
Yeah, it was a bad, it was a bad coaching job.
8:01
I mean, the coaching job on both sides was just not, it didn't
8:04
make any sense. To your point, I, I don't, I
8:06
don't understand what they were doing with that play, but that
8:08
game, game plan, it made no sense to me.
8:10
So yeah, that's got to get cleaned up 'cause that I mean,
8:13
defence is their calling card and to play like that, I just
8:16
don't understand that. Why aren't you blitzing?
8:18
Why aren't you blitzing him? I, I, we know he's been.
8:21
He's been. Injured.
8:22
I like he's mobile or anything, you know?
8:24
Oh, he's been injured. He's not mobile in the 1st place
8:26
and we knew that he was questionable.
8:27
Just get after him. I don't know why you don't do
8:29
that. It didn't make any sense.
8:30
Just dump. Well, the one thing you guys
8:32
forgot, you know, for the 14th year in a row, EU is back.
8:36
I forgot that. I forgot that.
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They're back. Here they come.
8:40
Also explain to me why why is Mario Cristobal like running,
8:43
trying to set up a 47 yard field goal to win the game?
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I'm just like, there's going to be a Cristobal happening at some
8:49
point this season. He almost did it in game one.
8:54
I didn't understand that either. It didn't come back to bite him
8:57
obviously. But I know man, they lose the
9:01
Tex A&M in two weeks. Nah.
9:05
That's not good. I could take him out of my
9:08
little playoff chart. Take him out of your playoff
9:11
bracket because if they don't be texting him they will not be in.
9:15
So were there any other standout players that you caught your eye
9:18
besides Laura Sellers? I think everyone was talking
9:20
about him. But you know, I had a couple and
9:26
they're both on Baylor. I, I, I watched the whole Baylor
9:28
game. I thought #1 and 20 #22 the
9:31
running back, true freshman now he may be playing somewhere
9:35
else. He most likely will be playing
9:36
somewhere else next year. But at least for this year, they
9:38
those two look legit. The receiver looks like that
9:43
Nick Harper guy in South Carolina.
9:46
He's a huge dude, runs really fast.
9:48
He's just bowling people over, catch the ball.
9:51
They targeted him like at least 20 times probably.
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So I'm looking for a big year out of him.
9:56
I think him and 22 don't know their names, not going to learn
10:00
them. But if you're a Baylor fan,
10:02
you're excited about those two. They can mess with the
10:05
quarterback. I don't know if you guys saw
10:06
anything else. I'll stick in the Big 12.
10:09
I was impressed with Josh Hoover and TCU and hey, we we talked
10:13
him up in the preseason. Devin Dampier and the Utah Utes
10:16
man, they're whipping on UCLA defense still looks good.
10:20
He looks good running that offense.
10:24
If they made the Big 12 title game wouldn't surprise me one
10:26
bit. Yeah.
10:29
OK. So should we jump into Week 2?
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Unless Pete wants to talk about Bryce Underwood winning the
10:34
Heisman for the next 4 years, I. Don't know about that, but you
10:37
know, freshman quarterback, you know, true freshman, he looked,
10:41
he looked good. I mean, he looked, he looked
10:43
solid. He was, you know, he was not.
10:46
It didn't appear he was rattled. We're going to find out this
10:47
week. I mean, Oklahoma's going to get
10:49
after him. We'll see what comes out of
10:51
that. But he didn't do anything.
10:53
No big mistakes. He was efficient.
10:57
He was pretty accurate. It was good.
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It was good to see like we don't see that happened too often
11:02
here. We can especially with freshman
11:04
QBs like that. So it was, it was promising.
11:07
I'm not going over that. I mean, it was promising.
11:09
I, I, we'll have to see how that progresses.
11:11
He's going to make mistakes. He's, you know, he's a freshman.
11:13
So we'll see how that goes. But it was a very, it was a very
11:16
good start. So I was happy to see the way
11:18
Michigan played as a whole. It was happy to see some
11:20
offense, you know, that was 2 dimensional rather than being
11:23
just singular, singular like last year running the ball.
11:26
So that was positive. Defense looked look good.
11:29
So yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic for my team.
11:32
We'll see how it goes. And yeah, well, we'll talk about
11:36
that a little bit more coming up here.
11:38
Oh, yeah, I see that that's in our future.
11:41
Here it is. All right, well, let's go on a
11:45
little bit. If you're watching on YouTube,
11:46
we have our bets up here on the screen.
11:49
We also have some alternate lines here from different
11:52
vetting platforms, but we'll start with Baylor.
11:55
Aforementioned Baylor Bears playing SMU this weekend.
12:00
I bet this one I actually took Baylor plus the three points.
12:05
I think this would be a good bounce back week.
12:06
I do not hold SMU in the same tier as they were last year or
12:12
as Auburn this year. I know Auburn had a crappy year
12:14
last year. They look a lot better.
12:17
Their run defense is a lot better.
12:20
If Baylor can somehow stop the run they they had a trouble with
12:23
that during the week I'm looking at this game.
12:25
I think this will be a good bounce back game.
12:27
So my one bet for one of my bets for this week would be Baylor
12:30
plus three playing SMU. Any thoughts from you guys?
12:35
Well, I think you said it right. I mean, Baylor's going to stop
12:37
the run. They they haven't shown the
12:39
ability to do so yet. So that that's a little
12:42
concerned. I don't, I don't dislike the
12:43
bet. I think it's good.
12:44
I looked, I mean the over under, it's like it's a high number.
12:46
It's like 65 1/2, which is way too high.
12:48
So I didn't I didn't touch it, but I don't I don't dislike
12:51
that. I think they will find a way to
12:53
slow the run down. So I think they do have an
12:55
opportunity here. So that's a, that's a good pick.
12:57
I like it. Dave yeah, I like it.
12:59
Also, I'm not super high on SMU, but like you both mentioned,
13:03
they need to learn how to stop a running quarterback because
13:05
Kevin Jennings does have the ability to keep the SMU offense
13:07
on the field for as long as he wants.
13:10
So Baylor needs to put a spy on him.
13:12
I don't know why they didn't bother to put a spy on Jackson
13:13
Arnold the entire game, but then again, Dave Aranda apparently
13:17
sucks ass in the first six games of the season, so who knows what
13:20
he's thinking. But yeah, I I like to pick.
13:22
I think Baylor can take this one.
13:24
I mean, he's still threw for over 400 yards against an SEC
13:26
defense, so SMU lost a lot on that side of the ball.
13:30
Yeah, I like to pick, but I would even sprinkle, sprinkle,
13:32
sprinkle a little bit on the money line if you want.
13:34
What the hell? I saw something, I think SMU has
13:38
a defensive lineman, one of their top D lineman might be
13:40
out, probably a game time decision.
13:42
They're going to have to follow that.
13:45
But that would help the running game for #22 my new, my new
13:49
best, my new best buddy here. So Iowa, Iowa State.
13:53
I believe this is one of Peter's picks.
13:56
It is it. Is 1 of mine.
13:59
I'm trying to redeem myself from a very, very poor first week
14:02
here. Had a good year last year, was
14:05
not a good start in week 1. So I'm trying to redeem myself a
14:07
bit here. I see defense.
14:09
I see a lot of defense happening here, and that's the way this
14:11
traditionally goes with this game, right?
14:13
Last year it was close and it was a defensive battle.
14:15
I expect something very similar. So although the number is rather
14:18
low, it's 41 1/2. They would have they were under
14:20
that last year. I can certainly see that
14:22
happening again here. I expect a similar type of game.
14:26
You know, it's not like Iowa's gonna set the world on fire
14:28
scoring anyway, no matter who they're playing.
14:30
So at the end of the day, I mean, this feels like a, you
14:32
know, A17-A10 game or, you know, 20 to 13 or something, something
14:37
pretty low. That's what it, that's what this
14:39
game feels like to me. So I expect it'll go back and
14:41
forth, it'll stay close 'cause it's a rivalry.
14:44
So yeah. So I like the under here, 41
14:46
1/2, one unit. That's my play.
14:49
Aaron. Yeah, piggybacking off that, we
14:53
all talked about how awesome this Mark Gronowski guy was
14:56
going to be and and make the Iowa offense super awesome.
15:00
Dude threw for 44 yards against Albany.
15:02
All right, we all used to live near Albany.
15:06
The three of us could throw for more than 44 yards against
15:08
Albany. But yeah, I'm a little worried.
15:11
I'm a little worried about the the Iowa offense.
15:13
So you stopped me before that before high octane.
15:16
Yeah, high octane, except for the high or the octane part.
15:21
But I mean, as far as a side, yeah, I agree.
15:23
This this game could even be less than 17 to 10.
15:26
But I I don't know how you don't go with Iowa State here.
15:29
I mean, they showed against K State, their defense is
15:31
certainly improved. I just don't know how Iowa puts
15:34
up more than 10. So you're telling me Iowa State
15:36
really only needs to get the 14? Certainly doable with Rocco
15:40
Bekde and his new receivers. If if I had to play.
15:43
I do have a lean to Iowa State here, but I did not.
15:45
Play OK defense from Iowa. Go figure, right?
15:49
Who knew? Yeah, who knew?
15:51
So I think there we got one ears up here.
15:54
Now we got Virginia and NC State take us through it.
15:57
Yeah, I was, I was looking for some games.
16:00
Yeah, we all complain about how Week 1 is difficult and you got
16:03
to kind of tread lightly 'cause you don't know, thanks to the
16:05
portal and IL, what all these teams are going to look like.
16:08
That's why if you're watching on YouTube, I've got my sign in as
16:11
Week 1A because I think while we do have at least one box score
16:15
for all these teams now, The thing is these teams are playing
16:19
FCS schools, really poor Group of five schools.
16:23
I still don't know, like, are these teams back?
16:25
Do these teams suck? Are they really, really good or
16:27
do they just take advantage of a weak opponent?
16:30
At least here we've got two schools that played some group
16:32
of five opponents last week. So there's a little something to
16:35
to look at here. NC State's biggest problem
16:37
coming into this year was the O line and they ran for a whopping
16:42
76 yards on 22 carries. At least they're started
16:45
Hollywood Smothers against an ECU defense that gave up 170
16:49
yards a game on the ground last year.
16:50
So this old line is a big concern for me.
16:54
I do like their skill players. I think CJ Bailey had an
16:56
excellent game. But defensively they lost their
16:59
defense coordinator. They lost a ton of their
17:01
starters and experience. And you can see when when Kate
17:05
and Houser was checking for like 360 yards and getting ECU back
17:08
in the game, NC State's still got some secondary issues.
17:11
And it wasn't even just one guy. They had like 4 different people
17:14
catch at least seven passes or something like that, was it?
17:16
No, I'm sorry, 5 passes at least.
17:18
So Hauser was chucking it around to anybody.
17:21
Apparently everybody was open, so good for ECU.
17:23
But if NC State doesn't get their secondary figured out,
17:27
here comes Chandler Morris, North Texas transfer now playing
17:30
for Virginia. He got hurt in the third
17:32
quarter, left shoulder injury, but he's already back in
17:34
practice, expected to play. He had over 260 yards and two
17:37
TDs in his limited time. And again, Virginia's offensive
17:42
line was a problem Last year. They allowed 47 sacks.
17:45
Coastal Carolina didn't get any against him this time.
17:48
So run game looked good, 177 yards on the ground.
17:52
So I think when when you compare East Carolina and Coastal
17:55
Carolina, you know, two Group of five teams, neither one really
17:58
expected to do much in their conference.
18:00
NC State had some issues. Virginia really did not.
18:03
So even though Virginia's on the road here, the spread was three.
18:07
I think it's down to 2 1/2. But if I see a road team only
18:11
getting a field goal or less, I'm more inclined to take the
18:13
money line. That's what I did here.
18:15
I was able to get plus 1:30 earlier in the week.
18:17
And again, also keep in mind this is not a conference game.
18:20
Even though these guys are both in the ACC.
18:23
This was a, this was a home and home schedule for this year and
18:26
next year because of the 17 teams that are in the ACC.
18:29
These guys don't play each other for like another six years if
18:31
they didn't do this. So this will not count in the
18:33
standings. So if you have a conference bet
18:35
on either of these two, don't get happy if your team wins
18:37
because it's not going to. Happen.
18:42
I expect to see some scoring. I wasn't very happy with either
18:44
defense last week, so I think there's going to be some
18:46
scoring. It could get interesting.
18:48
NC State's kind of pushing the tempo as you mentioned later in
18:51
the game, specifically they were pushing the tempo.
18:53
I think Virginia's going to have a problem stopping that.
18:55
But I still I, I think it's, it's going to be close either
18:58
way. It's going to be a offensive
19:00
game quite opposite the one we just talked about.
19:02
And so it will be interesting. It'll be fun to watch, but I do
19:05
like it. But I think that bet makes a lot
19:06
of sense. I, I agree like a DAW Rd. team
19:09
getting less than three, that's that that would scream money
19:13
line bet if you believe in that and that road team.
19:14
So makes a lot of sense. My thoughts on the game is I
19:18
don't like either of these teams.
19:19
If not for Clemson, I'd probably hate these teams the most.
19:21
So we're good. Someone's going to lose, so I'll
19:25
be happy. So Missouri and Kansas.
19:32
Me again. All right, the border war.
19:34
OK, first of all, I hate betting against Kansas because they will
19:37
always have a special place in my heart for ending my Week 0
19:40
train wreck when they throttled Fresno State a couple weeks ago.
19:45
And I can't really take much out of Missouri's one game was 61
19:49
point outburst against some sorry ass FCS Central Arkansas
19:53
team. So the only thing I know in that
19:55
game was they had two quarterbacks.
19:57
They wanted to play them both. The first guy got hurt like the
19:59
first drive of the game. So the Penn State Transfer Bowl
20:02
Privula finished up and he was awesome.
20:05
And he also adds an excellent running threat to this offense
20:07
here. When we talked about Kansas, we
20:09
talked about losing their running back, losing their top 4
20:12
receivers, losing 3 offensive lineman, losing a ton on the
20:15
defense. Obviously that's not going to
20:17
show up against Fresno State who lost more than they did.
20:21
And you certainly can't tell anything from them playing
20:23
Wagner last week. I just question where, you know,
20:26
usually this border war is like a neutral site game, but this
20:29
one's at Missouri. And I just think all those
20:32
losses on Kansas coming into the year might start to might start
20:35
to show something here. So with this 6 1/2, I'll trust
20:40
the Penn State transfer. I'm thinking at least a 7 point
20:43
victory here. So I did take Missouri and laid
20:45
the 6 1/2. Daniel still playing?
20:50
Yeah, not hurt. OK, well.
20:52
There's no he's, he's two games in baby.
20:54
He's on like a 14 game staying out this week.
20:58
Pete, any thoughts on this one as well?
21:00
No, I agree with Darren said. I mean, I expect a bit of a
21:02
shootout here. The over under is 50 1/2 and I,
21:04
I think it'll go over that number.
21:06
I'm, I'm just leaning that way. I'm I'm not playing it, but I
21:08
think it'll be interesting. And I agree he did look good
21:10
stepping into that royal quarterback.
21:12
And I think I think it's going to look even better this week.
21:14
So I I I like that pick. Right, I'm going to move on.
21:19
We got Ole Miss in Kentucky. I didn't know we were going to
21:21
have Saratoga Ray here, special guest in studio.
21:24
They're going to dedicate this pic to him, his favorite team,
21:27
Ole Miss. We got to do a show of horse
21:30
handicapping with with Ray here one of these days.
21:33
But yeah, I believe the line is -10 1/2 is what I got on Hard
21:38
Rock for some other lines from different platforms on there as
21:41
well. This is more, you know, they can
21:45
obviously still score. I think they put up like 65 last
21:48
week, 66 somewhere up there. They can still score.
21:52
I know Kentucky seems to be a problem for for Ole Miss.
21:57
They actually beat them last year I believe, which is
21:59
probably the real reason they missed the playoffs that
22:02
started. The.
22:04
The collapse. But yeah, also, I'm sure good
22:09
old Lane loves a revenge game. He likes to run up the score a
22:12
little bit here. So I can totally see Ole Miss
22:14
going into Kentucky and dropping a big one on those guys.
22:20
So I took Ole Miss, I gave the 10 1/2 points to the Wildcats.
22:24
Any thoughts from you guys? Yeah, I mean, old runners, 50
22:28
1/2. I seriously consider the over
22:30
here. I I agree with that.
22:31
I think, I think Ole Miss might do that all by themselves in
22:34
this game that that could happen.
22:36
I, I agree with the revenge factor.
22:38
I think he's, I think that team is going to come out swinging
22:40
really quick and I think they're going to score a lot of points.
22:43
So I, yeah, I I agree with that. Yeah, even though the Kentucky
22:47
quarterback does have a win over Alabama, that did have Nick
22:49
Saban to save him. I guess about 3 years ago he was
22:52
on Texas A and MI guess he was the quarterback that beat him.
22:55
So Darren, any thoughts? He's modest.
22:58
Do you parlay on this channel? No parlay on this channel.
23:03
Yeah, I agree. There's some talk that Austin
23:05
Simmons is actually supposedly better than Jackson Dart was.
23:08
I don't know if that's the case or not, but we are all super
23:11
down on Kentucky this year. Mark Stoops could easily be
23:15
canned by the time the year is over.
23:17
Yeah, I, I do believe somewhat in the in the revenge spot that
23:21
Tim mentioned here. So Kiffin may just, he may not
23:24
try to run this up, but, you know, 42 to 17, something like
23:29
that. This just kind of screams it.
23:33
Could be, I mean, I mean the Stoops coach defense is still
23:35
good, but yeah, I I just, that's why I bet I was like, I think
23:38
they can still cover it at 10 1/2.
23:39
They can probably get up 1417, something like that.
23:42
So. Well, the Belichicks were
23:43
supposed to be good at defense as well, and we all saw how that
23:46
worked out. That's true.
23:50
Michigan State and Boston College.
23:53
Yeah, nice. The nice, nice way 'cause as
23:56
we're just talking about a revenge game here, I'm playing
23:58
this and a little bit of my handicap is the revenge factor
24:01
here. So I I kind of like Michigan
24:04
State this year. I'm not a huge fan of of Aiden
24:07
Childs, but he got some excellent players at the skill
24:09
positions around him. It's just a question on if he
24:12
can get them the ball. I love Mari Kelly, I love Nick
24:16
Marsh, and to his credit, he didn't have any interceptions
24:20
against what they played Western Michigan last week, but he did
24:22
fumble the ball twice, so he needs to be a little more
24:25
careful to be scrambling. He is a dual threat guy.
24:29
And again, I don't know what you take out of either of these
24:31
teams first games. I mean, Boston College
24:33
shellacked Fordham, OK, great, you put up 66 points against
24:37
Fordham, but you also have offensive line concerns and you
24:41
ran for like what, 98 yards on 38 carries?
24:44
That's not even 3 yards of carry against Fordham.
24:47
So I just wonder if Michigan State's defensive line is going
24:50
to be able to to stuff the run. Michigan State's secondary is a
24:54
little bit of a concern, so I'm curious to see how they handled
24:58
Boston College passing attacks. They did a ton of passing
25:01
against Fordham, but I like what Michigan State's got on the
25:04
defensive side of the ball. I love their skill positions.
25:07
They're running back, those two receivers I mentioned Jack
25:09
Belling, they're tight end. It just all depends on whether
25:12
Aiden Child's as a, you know, a game like he had a year ago
25:16
against them where he threw 3 picks in Boston College.
25:19
And, you know, they lost that game 23 to 19.
25:22
But he's already been in a press conference this week talking
25:25
about it. He remembers that game.
25:26
He knows the three picks. He doesn't want to have that
25:28
happen. And this is a national TV game.
25:31
Sorry for NBC and your agreement with the Big 10 that you have to
25:34
put on this retch. But I still think this is a
25:38
revenge spot. I think Childs gets his.
25:40
I think he minimizes his mistakes.
25:42
I got 3 1/2 here. Wasn't the best number.
25:45
There were some two and a halfs and threes out earlier in the
25:47
week, but I laid the 3 1/2 with Michigan State here.
25:53
Any thoughts Pete? Yeah, I think that makes a lot
25:55
of sense. I mean, we talked, I talked
25:56
about last year how I thought the the right hire coaching hire
25:59
for Jonathan Smith was was the right hire.
26:02
We're starting to see that pay dividends, right?
26:04
We saw an offseason getting some players and now we saw the way
26:07
they played in Week 1 and I thought they looked pretty good.
26:10
A lot of excitement up here in Michigan for that team.
26:12
I mean, not not exuberant, but just the sense that it feels
26:15
like they're coming back to some kind of level where they're
26:17
competitive again, which they haven't been in a while.
26:20
So that's really good to see. I I, I said, you know, they're a
26:22
rival, but it's better when their rivals are good.
26:24
So I'd like to see that happening.
26:26
So yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
26:27
I think Michigan State will win this game and I think they'll
26:29
cover as well. And another thing I I forgot to
26:32
mention was like Boston College was a was A7 win team last year.
26:38
They had three offensive lineman go to the pros.
26:40
This year they also had their top defensive player go to the
26:43
Cowboys as well. So I mean, this is a team that
26:46
was barely above 500 with four NFL players on their roster last
26:49
year. They have not done well in the
26:51
portal the last year or two. Michigan State has done actually
26:55
pretty well considering their location.
26:58
I just like Michigan State's depth and skill players better
27:01
than what Boston College has. And I think we'll see that on
27:03
Saturday night. All right, that my final pick
27:09
here for the week, my third one here.
27:10
We have Florida and South Florida.
27:14
Yeah, I got Florida here. They're giving, I believe 18
27:17
1/2. That's what I got on here.
27:20
This is one of those, you know, you got the South Florida coming
27:24
off a big win, knocking out Boise for all intents and
27:27
purposes of from the playoffs. Figured I don't see them going
27:33
back in there again. So we got Florida at home, They
27:37
love this beat up on teams. They probably could have scored
27:41
a lot more than they did last week even think now they're
27:45
getting into their groove, got DJ start humming.
27:49
The offensive line is going to be a problem for South Florida.
27:52
We got a two or three NFL prospects on that line as well.
27:55
I see them getting so early again.
28:00
I think my only problem is avoiding the dreaded backdoor
28:02
cover. Hopefully that doesn't happen
28:03
again, but I see Florida covering the 18 1/2 boys any.
28:08
Thoughts Yeah, I fully, I fully expect that the Gators will be
28:12
in control of this game from the beginning.
28:14
So are they going to cover that? I I think they will.
28:17
I, I do think that South Florida's going to step into it
28:20
here, unfortunately for them and, and just have a, a rough go
28:23
of XI. Do think, you know, at home, I
28:26
think that Florida is going to be tough and I think they are
28:28
going to control this game. I would not be surprised if they
28:31
won by 25 or something. So those are my thoughts.
28:36
Yeah, I, I, I, I wish we had some disagreements on this show
28:39
because I always seem to have one, but I, I, it's not here.
28:43
I I. Maybe.
28:44
Boise State is really just not that good without Ashton Gente.
28:50
Get on South Florida. Yeah, South Florida plays Miami
28:53
next week. I mean, they have the worst
28:54
three-game slate to start a season that I think I've ever
28:57
seen. But yeah, I, I, Florida's a
29:01
legit team. Their problem is their schedule
29:03
just awful. And obviously keeping their
29:04
quarterback healthy. He may not have to do much here.
29:08
He could be sitting when the fourth quarter starts and just
29:10
watching his backup hand the ball off.
29:12
But yeah, yeah, I agree with Tim here.
29:14
I I think Florida covers this. And this might be the game of
29:19
the week. Michigan, Oklahoma.
29:24
Do we start with Pete or Darren? Do you want to go first?
29:26
I'll let Pico ask because his team is involved here.
29:31
Yeah, I mean, I think this is the game of the week.
29:34
I'm surprised this spread opened at like 3 and then went up.
29:39
I would certainly look at Michigan and the points in this
29:41
game if I was taking a side. Oklahoma had had a few offensive
29:47
issues to get started. I think Jade not only carried
29:50
the ball like one time in the game last week, so I'm not
29:53
really sure what you're saving him for, but hey, whatever.
29:57
Yeah, I mean Underwood looked good.
30:00
My I guess my only concern if I had to have one was a freshman
30:03
in his first Rd. start against a defense like this against a guy
30:06
in Brent Venables who get Al PS He's great at defense.
30:12
He will find something to to fluster this kid and we'll just
30:15
see if if he can overcome it or not.
30:17
But with the spread going way past three and even 4, if I had
30:21
to pick a side, I would take Michigan in the points here.
30:24
All right, Peter, let's have it. Yeah, great.
30:27
Yeah. So, I mean, since Jim Harbaugh
30:30
kind of redesigned this team some years ago, obviously gone.
30:32
But Sheron Moore is basically a protege.
30:34
You know, this is a team that is play defense well and run the
30:39
ball. And any really good teams, they
30:41
play top 20 teams that are playing OSU or teams like this,
30:45
That's what they do. They double down, they punch in
30:46
the face, they run the ball, they slow the tempo down,
30:49
control the ball, play good defense.
30:51
Oklahoma's kind of going to be the same way.
30:53
They have green, green quarterbacks on both sides.
30:56
Yeah, I don't expect this to be a high scoring endeavour over
31:00
under 45 1/2. And unless Bryce goes off and
31:04
it's his coming out party, I just don't think it's time for
31:06
that nor get into this team. Is that going to happen with his
31:09
defense? So I think the coming out party
31:12
will happen sometime later in the year, but it's not now.
31:14
I think this is a, you know, 20 to 17 game, something like that
31:19
close defense. It could go either way.
31:21
Honestly, I didn't even touch who's going to win.
31:24
The all I did is look at the over under because honestly, I
31:27
really is a Michigan guy. I'm not all that comfortable.
31:30
I I don't I'm not all that confident in winning this game,
31:33
But I think we'll be competitive and I think it'll be a close
31:35
game. I would not be surprised if we
31:37
lost to them by, you know, three points at home with them.
31:40
No shock over under 45 1/2. So obviously with my point
31:44
spreads here, I'm thinking under I'm I'm so I'm I'm heavily going
31:47
under on this. I I so one point, sorry, one
31:50
unit 45 1/2 under in this game should be fun to watch ish.
31:55
If you like defense, if you like defense, if you if you don't
31:59
like defense, then I think you'll be a little bored.
32:01
That's what I expect. Hey Pete, question for you.
32:04
The guy who got suspended because of that absolute BS
32:07
targeting call. Yeah, that's yes.
32:11
How how big is a loss? Is that because he's out for the
32:14
first half? I don't think it'll be huge, not
32:17
not the way this team, this team has been next man up for a
32:20
while. It's it's just been that way
32:22
other than last year with not having a quarterback, that's a
32:25
whole different situation. Yeah, it'll impact him a little
32:27
bit, but I don't think we'll see a major issue here.
32:30
OK. All right.
32:31
We're going to move on to our RPO segment.
32:34
No, no. Oh, sorry.
32:35
One more Darren, that's not Arizona State.
32:39
That's you. That's Pete.
32:42
This is me again. We're not.
32:43
We're good. I got this.
32:45
I'm just gonna go. With this back loaded this with
32:46
the Pete games here we got Arizona State and Mississippi
32:49
State. We did this in a bunch of.
32:51
This game I. Don't know.
32:53
This is mine. So yeah.
32:54
So over under 58 1/2 to me, it's a little bit of a high number.
32:58
I mean, looking at, you know, how this game is gonna play out,
33:01
you know, these, these match ups, you know, SEC PAC, 1210,
33:05
whatever the hell it is every other week, every other year
33:07
here tend to be lower scoring just historically.
33:11
I think we're going to see that. I don't mean low, low scoring,
33:13
but 58 1/2's a big number. So to me, you know, 24 to
33:17
something, I don't know, I, I don't expect there'll be a lot
33:19
of high scoring throughout this game.
33:22
I think Mississippi State's defense look really good.
33:25
Last week. Their front looked really good
33:28
against Southern Miss. I think they held them to under
33:30
3 yards per carry, which is good.
33:32
So I expect to see more of that this week.
33:34
And without Scataboo, obviously, who's now in the Giants, you
33:37
know, that's going to be a bit of a problem for Arizona State.
33:39
So yeah, I see this to be a lower scoring endeavour, not
33:42
low, low like the Michigan game, but a lower scoring endeavour.
33:46
I do expect it to be relatively close as well.
33:49
Otherwise, I do think Mississippi State will win this
33:51
game. But yeah, one unit, excuse me,
33:54
on the under at 58 1/2. Yeah.
33:58
Any thoughts on that one? Yeah, I, I.
34:00
Can't read that because I'm blind and old.
34:02
What's the what's the spread on that game?
34:04
Oh, never mind, I got it here. 6 1/2 or so Mississippi State on
34:09
the money line at 2:00 to 1:00 looks very enticing.
34:13
And I just say that because we saw what Boise State looked like
34:16
without Ash and Gentie. Why would we expect Arizona
34:20
State to look any better without scataboo?
34:25
I just think this could be an upset here.
34:27
If you had a nice week 1, then you got a little extra in your
34:30
bankroll. Hell, throw throw, throw a half
34:31
a unit on Mississippi State on the money line.
34:35
I think this could be an upset here.
34:38
I agree with that. Yep.
34:41
OK, now let's go on to our RPO segment.
34:44
These are games that we did not bet on, but if you were going to
34:47
ask us for opinions, we'll tell you to either run to the betting
34:50
window for your cell phone or laptop or just hard pass on this
34:54
game, our first one, James Madison plus 14 at Louisville.
34:59
Peter, any thoughts? I didn't dig too deep, but if
35:02
somebody put a gun to my head and say make a bet on this
35:05
thing, I would take Louisville and lay those points all day
35:07
long. I think they will easily cover
35:10
that 14. I was the same way I saw the 14
35:14
on a Friday night in Louisville. Yeah, if I were betting, I would
35:18
run with it and go bet Louisville.
35:22
All right, well, I'm, I'm, I'm gonna run you guys in a couple
35:24
of old ladies as I'm running away from the window here
35:27
because we had talked about James Madison at length and
35:30
they're ridiculously low priced to win the Sunbelt.
35:32
Well, guess who played quarterback for James Madison in
35:35
week one? Our boy Alonza Barnett.
35:37
So with him on the field, I'm not touching this one.
35:42
Yeah. I mean, if you guys had bet it,
35:44
yeah, I'll root for Louisville, but I don't want any part of a
35:49
healthy Barnett with A2 touchdown head start.
35:52
No way. Illinois -3 At Duke, this would
35:57
be a pass for me. Yeah.
36:01
I haven't even seen anything remotely to be impressed with
36:03
Duke at all. Not a big fan of Manny Diaz,
36:07
Peter or Darren. I'll start with you.
36:09
We did Peter last time. What you what do you think on
36:10
this one? Yeah, I'm avoiding this game as
36:13
well. As as much hype as as Illinois
36:15
was given going into the season, why they're only a three-point
36:18
favorite just screams. Is that Admiral Ackbar there
36:22
from Star Wars? This is a trap.
36:24
Yeah, I don't want any part of this.
36:27
If Illinois wins by 17, it wouldn't surprise me.
36:29
If Duke pulls the upset, that wouldn't surprise me either.
36:32
I will let those fan bases sweat it out.
36:34
I want nothing to do with this game either.
36:37
I would I would be shocked if Illinois doesn't win this game.
36:40
Their defense is legit and and I don't expect to to be able to do
36:43
anything honestly. So I'm not betting it.
36:47
But I am. Once again, if I had to go make
36:48
a bet, I would lay those points all day long because I do think
36:51
that Illinois defense is legit and they and Duke is going to
36:54
have problems all day, all day long with that.
36:56
So yeah. Liberty -6 1/2 at Jacksonville
36:59
State, Darren. Dude, give me Jacksonville State
37:06
on the money line here. I think we've been kind of anti
37:08
Liberty for for quite some time. I think that might just be a, a
37:11
locker room slash culture issue here.
37:16
You know, Liberty only put up what, 28 points against Maine
37:19
last week? That just tells me that there,
37:22
there's some issues there stemming even from last year.
37:25
Jacksonville State was at least competitive against UCF, only
37:28
losing 17 to 10. I would take the points and
37:32
maybe another money line sprinkle here on Jacksonville
37:34
State. I'm going to tell you what I'm
37:36
going to do. I'm.
37:37
Going to hammer Peter. Yeah, I mean, Liberty, we're
37:40
we're down on them. I, I would never lay points of
37:43
any magnitude taking Liberty. So if I had to do anything, it'd
37:47
be on the other side of Jacksonville State taking those
37:49
points. But honestly I I I I wouldn't
37:51
touch this game either way. Yeah, I didn't see either of
37:54
these two teams for Week 1, so for that reason alone, I'm out.
37:57
Hard pass. Oklahoma State getting 28 1/2 at
38:01
Oregon. This is interesting because
38:03
Gundy was talking some, I guess complaining a little bit about
38:07
money. With all the money Oregon has, I
38:10
guess Dan Lanning shot back at him a little bit.
38:12
We'll see what happens there, but any thoughts on this one,
38:15
Peter? Yeah, I mean, Oregon's going to
38:17
firebomb them. I mean, this is this, this is
38:21
not going to be close. It might even be close before
38:24
the gun goes off at the beginning.
38:25
I I mean, somehow they'll be, they'll walk on the field and
38:28
have 20 points already. I I don't expect this thing to
38:30
be anywhere near competitive. Oregon's going to blow them off
38:33
the field. I would be, I would consider
38:35
laying those points, even though it's a big number.
38:37
I don't like laying numbers that big, so generally I wouldn't
38:39
touch it. I don't remember the over under
38:41
was on this one that would intrigue me if it was something
38:44
reasonable because I think Oregon could easily score, you
38:47
know, 50 points by themselves. So I mean, I, I don't have the
38:50
number in front of me at the I said it was 57 1/2.
38:54
That's intriguing. I was leaning over, but my
38:56
confidence level was 3 out of five.
38:58
So didn't play it. But I did consider this as a
39:00
potential over because I think Oregon is going to soar a ton of
39:02
points. So those are my thoughts.
39:05
Aaron. Not betting it, but yeah, Oregon
39:09
55 to 10. You hear me now?
39:11
Believe me, later this is going to get ugly.
39:14
Yeah, if it was 24 1/2 I'd run, but 28 1/2, you know, pass.
39:18
I mean, just with the whole thing with the coaches, I'd like
39:21
to see him just, you know, because your your buddy Gundy
39:24
might be I'm I'm for sure. I think we're all certainly.
39:27
I call, I asked Mark about it on the show a couple weeks ago.
39:30
That was, that was my pick. I'm under 4 1/2 on Oklahoma
39:34
State, man. I mean, they had the worst
39:35
quarterback room in the country and their starting quarterback
39:37
already broke his foot in Week 1.
39:39
So, like, who's starting now? Tim, Are you starting for the
39:42
Cowboys? Because you might be.
39:43
I mean, I don't know, just your male.
39:45
Yeah. Loosen it up.
39:46
Man up here. Is it in Oklahoma State?
39:50
That's a billionaire that kicked well.
39:53
He can't play quarterback either.
39:54
So yeah, this is Dante Moore's coming out Party I.
39:58
Think I think he's. Dead.
39:59
Yeah, like Oregon's billionaire is younger than his dead
40:03
billionaire. I mean, find younger
40:06
billionaires to back you that's. All watch Don Moore shoot up the
40:09
Heisman Trophy odds board after this game.
40:11
Because it is. Vanderbilt plus a point and 1/2
40:15
at Virginia Tech. Very interesting game, Darren.
40:21
Yeah, a mafia. Here we go.
40:23
Yeah, we do love us some Diego Pavia.
40:25
We're all all members of the Pavia Mafia here.
40:28
This was a game Vanderbilt won at home last year, beating
40:31
Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech still kind of
40:35
looks like ass. It wouldn't surprise me if
40:36
Vanderbilt goes in and pulls this off again.
40:40
Yeah, I I would take Vanderbilt here.
40:42
I don't care who's playing Metallica at the start of the
40:44
game. Yeah, I I think Vanderbilt takes
40:46
this one again. Peter.
40:50
That's cool. I mean, I, I expect defense, a
40:52
lot of defense here. I expect a low scoring game over
40:55
under 47 1/2. I was leaning pretty heavily
40:57
toward the under, didn't play it, but definitely leaning that
41:00
direction. So yeah, I, that would suggest
41:04
that Vanderbilt's going to be within shooting distance of
41:07
this. And I do think they could go in
41:09
there and win this game. So, so that's why I didn't touch
41:11
it because I think it's going to be a fun game to watch, But I,
41:13
I, I don't really know which direction to go with it.
41:16
He felt bad for the quarterback, for Virginia Tech.
41:18
He's just doing everything. He's going to get hurt before
41:20
the end of the year. It's sad to say, but UCLA at
41:24
UNLV, Nico AMA. I'm leave him.
41:27
He's at UNLV. He's going to regret that
41:32
decision if he's not already. He's going to regret that so
41:34
bad. But any thoughts?
41:37
We got -2 1/2 at UNLV. Just briefly, offense.
41:42
I expect offense. The opposite side of the other
41:44
game. I was just going to.
41:45
I was just. Going to ask you what the total
41:46
was. And I would, I would strongly
41:49
run and put a little money on the over because I've been, but
41:53
Nico played what Utah last week. We all know Utah's defense is
41:57
legit. We all know UNLV doesn't play
41:59
any. He could certainly rebound
42:01
nicely here and UNLV seems to have no problem scoring either.
42:04
So I, I don't know what the total is, but yeah, I, I lean
42:08
over here. This could be.
42:10
Fun. It's 53 1/2 and that to.
42:12
Me. Oh my God, that's a low number.
42:13
That's. A very low number.
42:16
Seriously considered playing it now that we had this discussion.
42:19
I probably will play it. Yeah, nice to be.
42:22
A. That's not Yeah.
42:25
So pass on the game, run on the over, get there.
42:27
Absolutely. Run over somebody to bet.
42:30
The over, yeah. There's got to be points here.
42:34
And last but not least, Stanford plus 20 1/2 at BYU.
42:39
Oh my God. Is Andrew Luck suiting up this
42:43
weekend? They might.
42:44
They might have a chance of Andrew Luck throws on the old
42:46
jersey and gives it a go. Otherwise, forget it.
42:48
Stanford is just terrible. Terrible.
42:50
Yeah, I I'm close to running myself and betting on BYU later
42:53
points. Sano, Darren.
42:54
Any thoughts? I have 0 interest in this game.
42:58
I watched a little Stanford versus Hawaii.
43:00
Their quarterback is God damn terrible, terrible, terrible.
43:06
Right. Where's the Barkley sound like?
43:08
Terrible, terrible, terrible. But you know, I'm not super high
43:12
on BYU either. So I mean, maybe if it stays
43:17
under 21, you want BYU because they're at home.
43:19
But I would only watch this one if there's nothing else on
43:23
television and I'm still awake, which probably out West, I'm
43:27
probably not awake. And that's probably for the
43:29
best. Yeah, I want nothing to do.
43:31
With this game, the over under is 45 1/2.
43:33
I mean, to me that yells under all day because, yeah, because
43:36
Stanford's not breaking. All.
43:39
Day three, seven, I don't know. So yeah, I don't know.
43:42
Not a good game. All right.
43:45
Well, let's wrap up this week. Let's go over our bets.
43:48
Pete. Let's run it down.
43:50
All right, trying to recover from having what I think is a
43:53
bad week last week. I'm still even for the year,
43:55
which is lovely, but I like to be better than.
43:57
So Iowa, Iowa State under 41 1/2.
43:59
As I said, defensive battle here.
44:01
That's the way this game usually goes.
44:03
So I don't expect anything different, though I do think
44:05
Iowa State's going to win that game too.
44:07
But I'm not betting that Arizona State, Mississippi State under
44:10
58 1/2 as as we were talking before that Mississippi State
44:14
kind of taking this one would be very interesting.
44:17
And I think it could happen in Michigan, Oklahoma.
44:19
I mean, these are going to be, these are two strong defenses, 2
44:23
green quarterbacks under 45 1/2 makes a heck of a lot of sense
44:26
here as long as Bryce can somehow go off, which I don't
44:29
think he's going to do. So those are my 3 bets.
44:32
All right, I got Baylor plus 3 / s MUI got Ole Miss, the Saratoga
44:37
Race special -10 1/2 over Kentucky, and I've got Florida
44:41
-18 1/2 over South Florida. Darren, what you got?
44:47
A terrible start to the season is what I got, but I've got
44:49
Virginia on the money line plus 130 over NC State.
44:53
I've got Missouri laying 6 1/2 over Kansas and I've got Sparty
44:57
laying 3 1/2 over Boston College.
45:01
All right, well, there you go everybody.
45:02
Thank you very much for watching.
45:04
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45:07
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45:10
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45:13
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45:16
Drop your bets. Yes, let's see what you guys are
45:20
betting on. We'll add it to the community.
45:22
Thank you all very much and we will see you next week.