Latest / Toadstool Sports / NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
- 0:14Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
- 0:17Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
- 0:19Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
- 0:23Speaker 1: slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
- 0:28Speaker 2: I have not had a good season.
- 0:31Speaker 1: Man, with bookends slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
- 0:37Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my
- 0:41Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 1: with the Bruins.
- 0:44Speaker 2: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
- 0:47Speaker 2: know it's March ninth? I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 2: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
- 0:53Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
- 0:56Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
- 1:02Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:06Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:07Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:11Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 1: point other than potentially.
- 1:27Speaker 2: End it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you, Toadstool Sports
- 1:38Speaker 1: NFL Week sixteen edition. We're already owned one on the
- 1:44Speaker 1: NFL just because of a half point with the Seattle
- 1:47Speaker 1: Seahawks on Thursday. Mister Thursday Night. Not getting it done
- 1:52Speaker 1: on that one deserve to be a worse loser though.
- 1:57Speaker 1: Fuck the Bears. The Bears are asked did not have
- 2:01Speaker 1: a play on that game, but there's no fucking way
- 2:04Speaker 1: that the Bears should have won that game, dude.
- 2:06Speaker 2: It took Jordan Love getting injured.
- 2:09Speaker 1: In the middle of the game, and then the Bears
- 2:13Speaker 1: having to recover an on site kick, at which point
- 2:16Speaker 1: they had no touchdowns in the entire game, and then
- 2:19Speaker 1: they had to get that touchdown, then green Bay was
- 2:22Speaker 1: driving an overtime, and green Bay had to turn the
- 2:25Speaker 1: ball over on downs. In this case, it took all
- 2:28Speaker 1: of that to happen for the Bears to actually win
- 2:31Speaker 1: that game.
- 2:33Speaker 2: Absolute ass, dude, the Bears.
- 2:37Speaker 1: The meltdown that the Bears are gonna have they are
- 2:39Speaker 1: gonna have is just gonna be ridiculous.
- 2:41Speaker 2: Like, this team is so bad, so bad.
- 2:45Speaker 1: I could not believe that they had no business winning
- 2:48Speaker 1: that game at all. I'm pissed about it because I
- 2:52Speaker 1: lost a pick on it in my pick'ms I mean,
- 2:55Speaker 1: it wasn't in my.
- 2:57Speaker 2: My pick five or whatever.
- 2:59Speaker 1: I'm gonna have my three plays and I'm gonna give
- 3:02Speaker 1: up give out on this show for tomorrow plus one
- 3:04Speaker 1: additional one. Are gonna make my board or make my
- 3:09Speaker 1: pick five? I guess Charles, what's up? Yes, thank you, sir.
- 3:12Speaker 1: We're on like a thirteen day winning streak or something here,
- 3:16Speaker 1: mister Pinsey, what's up?
- 3:18Speaker 2: Yes, sir? You played the Packers. It's such fucking bullshit, dude.
- 3:22Speaker 1: They're winning the game sixteen to six with like less
- 3:25Speaker 1: than two minutes to go.
- 3:27Speaker 2: Such fucking bullshit. Yeah.
- 3:31Speaker 1: I saw that the Green Bay had a backup center
- 3:34Speaker 1: and the backup quarterback in at that point. Both guys
- 3:38Speaker 1: were injured. The center and the quarterback were both injured.
- 3:41Speaker 1: So that's what happened in that game. They couldn't kick
- 3:45Speaker 1: it because they were kicking into the wind, so they
- 3:46Speaker 1: had to go for it.
- 3:49Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bears are so fucking bad, dude. I don't
- 3:52Speaker 2: even know.
- 3:52Speaker 1: Who the Bears are playing next week, but we're gonna
- 3:54Speaker 1: fade them most likely.
- 3:57Speaker 2: Let's get into today.
- 3:59Speaker 1: I'm hoping to go six and oh or whatever with
- 4:01Speaker 1: the place today. Man, five and one is still good.
- 4:05Speaker 1: We got some huge underdog wins today as well, so whatever,
- 4:09Speaker 1: let's get into tomorrow, NFL.
- 4:11Speaker 2: I have a headache.
- 4:12Speaker 1: My head fucking kills it right now. I'm gonna have
- 4:16Speaker 1: to take this toad hat off. I'll take the headphones
- 4:19Speaker 1: off at least. I don't know, because I haven't shaved
- 4:22Speaker 1: my head, so I'm trying to cover it up with
- 4:25Speaker 1: my hat here.
- 4:26Speaker 2: That's how you know that I haven't shaved my head recently.
- 4:29Speaker 1: It's because I have a hat on. This is my
- 4:31Speaker 1: frog and toad toad hat. Let's just get into this board, man,
- 4:35Speaker 1: Like I'm on board, let's do it. First game up
- 4:40Speaker 1: will be not happy from the fourth on. They should
- 4:46Speaker 1: have won the game. The game was fucking over. It
- 4:48Speaker 1: was sixteen to six with two minutes to go. All
- 4:52Speaker 1: you have to do is recover a fucking on site.
- 4:54Speaker 1: Kick up sixteen to nine, cracking, Yeah, good, dirty sock,
- 4:59Speaker 1: what's up? Yeah, let's get it done. Man, the crack
- 5:02Speaker 1: and we're winning one to nothing earlier. All right, we'll
- 5:06Speaker 1: go in order of the board, except I will talk
- 5:09Speaker 1: about the Sunday Night game last, because that got flexed
- 5:13Speaker 1: into the Sunday Night game because it's a better game
- 5:15Speaker 1: than whatever ass game was gonna be scheduled initially for that,
- 5:20Speaker 1: which I guess it was Bengels Dolphins apparently, because that's
- 5:24Speaker 1: the rotation order there. Yeah, Bengals Dolphins was gonna be
- 5:27Speaker 1: the night game. Isn't that just great? First game on
- 5:31Speaker 1: the board is Bill's Browns. This this is very close
- 5:35Speaker 1: to making my card. Dude, it's not on my card.
- 5:38Speaker 1: This is the first one I'm leaving off of my card.
- 5:41Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna say. I'm gonna say, take
- 5:44Speaker 1: the Browns plus the points here, and I know absolutely
- 5:47Speaker 1: nobody's gonna be playing the Browns here. We just saw
- 5:50Speaker 1: what the Bills did. The Bills just made an epic
- 5:52Speaker 1: comeback against the Patriots. They were down twenty one to
- 5:55Speaker 1: nothing in New England. We had the win on that
- 5:57Speaker 1: on my show with the Bills. Bill Bills dominated the
- 6:01Speaker 1: rest of the game, pretty much won the game.
- 6:03Speaker 2: Huge win for the Bills.
- 6:05Speaker 1: They're up to a ten and a half point favor here,
- 6:07Speaker 1: and they're massively public tickets ninety three percent of the
- 6:12Speaker 1: cash on them low total of forty one and a half.
- 6:15Speaker 2: The Browns play better.
- 6:16Speaker 1: At home, and they have a good defense, so better
- 6:19Speaker 1: defense getting points at home. The only way that you
- 6:24Speaker 1: can play this is to take the points of the Browns.
- 6:26Speaker 1: It's just a question of whether or not you do
- 6:27Speaker 1: actually want to play it. There's no way that you
- 6:29Speaker 1: can lay points in this game. It also looks kind
- 6:33Speaker 1: of similar to that Buffalo Houston situation where we had
- 6:37Speaker 1: Houston on the show, except that was I mean, Houston
- 6:41Speaker 1: is better than Cleveland obviously, and that was a primetime game,
- 6:43Speaker 1: so it's a little bit different. But like situation where
- 6:46Speaker 1: you're looking at the better defense getting.
- 6:48Speaker 2: Points at home.
- 6:49Speaker 1: Of course, Cleveland's getting a ton more points here. Now
- 6:52Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot for Buffalo because not only
- 6:54Speaker 1: are they coming up that huge game against New England,
- 6:57Speaker 1: which kept Buffalo in the division race technically, but after
- 7:00Speaker 1: this they.
- 7:01Speaker 2: Got Philadelphia, Philadelphia on Fox next week.
- 7:06Speaker 1: That's a big game because it's the Super Bowl champs Philadelphia,
- 7:10Speaker 1: So this is a sandwich about.
- 7:11Speaker 2: It's a second straight road game.
- 7:13Speaker 1: Not only that, but it's actually Buffalo playing a fourth
- 7:16Speaker 1: road game in five weeks. It looks like here because
- 7:18Speaker 1: their bye was long ago, so that's not easy to
- 7:22Speaker 1: do either. Cleveland, you're gonna have to rely on shouldar
- 7:25Speaker 1: A Sanders not making a ton of mistakes.
- 7:28Speaker 2: I mean, that's the one thing.
- 7:29Speaker 1: But nobody's gonna want Cleveland after they lost to the
- 7:33Speaker 1: Titans and then they got blown out by Chicago last week.
- 7:36Speaker 1: But really this was a lot of like should Sanders
- 7:38Speaker 1: mistakes in this game. I think he had three turnovers
- 7:42Speaker 1: in the game, or at least Cleveland had three turnovers
- 7:45Speaker 1: in the game. And yeah, the Bears did completely outgain
- 7:47Speaker 1: them too, but the final score was worse then, I mean,
- 7:51Speaker 1: the final score made it look worse than the game
- 7:53Speaker 1: actually was.
- 7:54Speaker 2: Again, Cleveland is better at.
- 7:56Speaker 1: Home, at least two and five at home, Baby cover
- 8:00Speaker 1: more of the numbers at home as well. So the
- 8:04Speaker 1: only way that I could see playing it is Cleveland.
- 8:06Speaker 1: Should they get up for a game against Buffalo, I
- 8:09Speaker 1: think so. I mean, Cleveland really their super Bowl. It
- 8:13Speaker 1: is probably gonna be next week against Pittsburgh though, So
- 8:15Speaker 1: that's kind of my hesitation here, Like Cleveland is always
- 8:18Speaker 1: gonna get up for that final home game against Pittsburgh,
- 8:20Speaker 1: but I still think they're gonna try to show up
- 8:22Speaker 1: against Buffalo as well. So yeah, I would take the points.
- 8:26Speaker 1: You're getting extra points here. Again, the nine was the
- 8:30Speaker 1: look ahead as well. This opener really was the look
- 8:33Speaker 1: ahead a week before that. So you're seeing based on
- 8:37Speaker 1: last week, the Bills are through that key number of
- 8:40Speaker 1: ten now for no other reason basically, So, yeah, you
- 8:43Speaker 1: gotta take the points of the Browns if you're gonna
- 8:45Speaker 1: play that one. Yeah, I told you that Sixers song
- 8:48Speaker 1: as a banger. Yeah, first time I heard it was
- 8:51Speaker 1: a Toucher and Rich Boston Sports Radio. They were making
- 8:55Speaker 1: fun of it when the Celtics were playing the Sixers
- 8:57Speaker 1: in the playoffs long long ago. It seems like the
- 9:02Speaker 1: Celtics play the Sixers in the playoffs all the time though.
- 9:07Speaker 2: Playoffs. Don't talk about playoffs, you kidding me? Playoffs. I
- 9:12Speaker 2: just hope we can win a game, another game.
- 9:16Speaker 1: I want to get this thing done, man, because my
- 9:17Speaker 1: head is killing me. Next game up. Oh, this is
- 9:20Speaker 1: an awesome one Jets Saints. Oh yeah, best game of
- 9:23Speaker 1: the day right here to look ahead on.
- 9:26Speaker 2: This was two and a half and now and now
- 9:29Speaker 2: the light is six and a half.
- 9:31Speaker 1: Like the Saints are almost a seven point favorite here, Like,
- 9:35Speaker 1: come on, man, are you seriously dude? The Saints they
- 9:41Speaker 1: should not be a touchdown favorite against anybody.
- 9:43Speaker 2: Just come on, man.
- 9:45Speaker 1: The only way that you can play this game is
- 9:46Speaker 1: to take the points of the Jets. I'm not gonna
- 9:49Speaker 1: do it, but come on. It's the totals forty and
- 9:53Speaker 1: a half.
- 9:53Speaker 2: It's a low total. Saints are public when when does
- 9:57Speaker 2: that ever happen?
- 9:58Speaker 1: Seventy four percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the
- 10:00Speaker 1: cash on them, absolutely ridiculous. The Saints have not been
- 10:04Speaker 1: more than a two point favorite all season, and that
- 10:07Speaker 1: was against the Falcons at New Orleans and New Orleans
- 10:11Speaker 1: lost that game. And the only other time they were
- 10:14Speaker 1: a favorite, I think they were like a one point
- 10:15Speaker 1: favorite in a really good spot against the Giants, and
- 10:18Speaker 1: we had a winner on that one actually on the
- 10:21Speaker 1: show with the Saints in that one. But come on, man,
- 10:25Speaker 1: the Saints are now five points heavier, a five point
- 10:29Speaker 1: heavier favorite than they have been all season.
- 10:31Speaker 2: This line is just ridiculous. It's out of control.
- 10:35Speaker 1: The two and a half, I guess was before we
- 10:38Speaker 1: saw what the Jets looked like with.
- 10:41Speaker 2: Brady Cook.
- 10:42Speaker 1: I think it's who their quarterback is now in his debut,
- 10:46Speaker 1: So I guess the Jets are gonna be going with
- 10:48Speaker 1: Brady Cook again here, and that's kind of why the
- 10:50Speaker 1: line is where it is. So you get two rookie
- 10:52Speaker 1: quarterbacks facing off here between Cook and Shuck. If that's
- 10:56Speaker 1: how you pronounce his name, fuck Shuck Cook. I have
- 10:59Speaker 1: no idea I was calling him Shaw Shug. I have
- 11:03Speaker 1: no idea who pronounced that guy's name. But yeah, I
- 11:06Speaker 1: mean Shuck actually hasn't been that bad for the Saints,
- 11:09Speaker 1: but for the Jets. I mean, you gotta think that
- 11:12Speaker 1: the rookie Cook, he's gonna do better in his second
- 11:15Speaker 1: game now that he has one game under his belt.
- 11:17Speaker 2: I mean, the Jets were just horrific last week. Man.
- 11:21Speaker 2: They lost forty eight to twenty.
- 11:22Speaker 1: I mean, they did put up twenty points, which isn't
- 11:24Speaker 1: that bad, so really it was kind of the defense
- 11:27Speaker 1: was kind of a problem against other Jags here. They
- 11:30Speaker 1: got lit up by Trevor Lawrence in this game. Yeah,
- 11:36Speaker 1: I mean the Jets did get out gain massively, but
- 11:38Speaker 1: they were also minus two in turnovers. I expect the
- 11:41Speaker 1: Jets to do a little bit better here, I mean
- 11:43Speaker 1: step way down in class to face the Saints. Saints
- 11:46Speaker 1: are also I think they're in a bad spot because
- 11:48Speaker 1: look at what the Saints did the last two weeks.
- 11:51Speaker 1: They beat Tampa Bay and Carolina, so they beat both
- 11:54Speaker 1: teams that are fighting for the division crown here.
- 11:58Speaker 2: Those are both huge wins for the Saints.
- 12:01Speaker 1: And you know, I keep talking about it like a
- 12:03Speaker 1: team that's not going anywhere like the Saints, what are
- 12:06Speaker 1: the types of games.
- 12:06Speaker 2: They're gonna get up for. Well, they're gonna get up
- 12:08Speaker 2: for division games.
- 12:09Speaker 1: So they could play spoiler, and that's what they did
- 12:11Speaker 1: the last two weeks.
- 12:12Speaker 2: So they spoil the party for.
- 12:14Speaker 1: Both teams, even spoilers to spoil it for both Tampa
- 12:18Speaker 1: and Carolina. So what all even's out even Steven. Now
- 12:23Speaker 1: it is their final home games, so that is maybe
- 12:25Speaker 1: a little bit of a motivator for.
- 12:27Speaker 2: The Saints to play well in their final home game.
- 12:29Speaker 1: But other than that, I mean, the line value is
- 12:32Speaker 1: on the Jets in this one. I mean, there's no
- 12:35Speaker 1: way that you can lay the points to the Saints here, man.
- 12:37Speaker 1: So that's what I'll say about that. Vikings Giants. I'll
- 12:41Speaker 1: come back to because that is one of my plays.
- 12:44Speaker 1: I love it, love it. And then we'll skip the
- 12:49Speaker 1: Patriots Ravens for now until the end because I'll talk
- 12:53Speaker 1: about it as a Sunday night game. Buccaneers Panthers, baby,
- 12:57Speaker 1: one of the best games on the board here. This
- 13:00Speaker 1: is gonna go a long way to determine who gets
- 13:03Speaker 1: into the playoffs out of the awful NFC South. One
- 13:06Speaker 1: of these teams has to get in. It would be
- 13:09Speaker 1: really absurd if it was the Panthers. To be honest,
- 13:11Speaker 1: the Panthers are bad, dude. The oddsmakers are telling you
- 13:14Speaker 1: who's the better team here, with the Buccaneers being a
- 13:17Speaker 1: three point road favorite now fifty seven percent of tickets,
- 13:21Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash. The public doesn't even
- 13:23Speaker 1: really seem to love the Buccaneers at this point because
- 13:25Speaker 1: they've looked so bad recently. But they're still better than
- 13:30Speaker 1: the Panthers, dude. And come on, Tampa Bay has more
- 13:34Speaker 1: experience in meaningful games like this. I mean, you're still
- 13:37Speaker 1: talking about Baker Mayfield. You're still talking about a guy
- 13:40Speaker 1: who's been in the playoffs.
- 13:41Speaker 2: Whatever.
- 13:42Speaker 1: I'm not gonna play Jim Mora again here, But you know,
- 13:45Speaker 1: Carolina does not have experience here Tampa Bay. They have
- 13:49Speaker 1: extra rest as well, and they're coming off that ugly
- 13:52Speaker 1: loss at home to the Atlanta Falcons where Tampa probably
- 13:55Speaker 1: should have won that game. They're winning by fourteen in
- 13:58Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. I know I gave out Atlanta as
- 14:00Speaker 1: a lean in that game, and of course it wound
- 14:01Speaker 1: up being correct, but Tampa bad ending to that game.
- 14:05Speaker 1: Now they have extra time off, they're trying to bounce
- 14:08Speaker 1: back from two losses. Now. They've actually lost five of
- 14:11Speaker 1: their last six games, but the first three of them
- 14:14Speaker 1: were to New England, Buffalo, and the Rams. I mean,
- 14:16Speaker 1: come on, so you can't really blame them for those losses. Really,
- 14:21Speaker 1: the game against New England was really close as well
- 14:25Speaker 1: in Tampa. But yeah, I kind of like Tampa in
- 14:28Speaker 1: this one man. Carolina. They're also coming up an ugly
- 14:34Speaker 1: loss though at New Orleans, and that was a sandwich spot.
- 14:37Speaker 2: Really. I pointed that out last week.
- 14:39Speaker 1: I said, you gotta lean to New Orleans, even though
- 14:41Speaker 1: it was kind of a divisional revenge spot for Carolina.
- 14:45Speaker 1: Carolina hilariously has lost both games to New Orleans this year.
- 14:49Speaker 2: But that was a bad spot for them.
- 14:51Speaker 1: Man, I just thought it was a bad spot for
- 14:53Speaker 1: both teams because New Orleans had upset Tampa Bay the
- 14:56Speaker 1: game before that, but Carolina had pulled off that crazy
- 14:59Speaker 1: upset of the RAM and they had this monster game
- 15:02Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay on deck.
- 15:03Speaker 2: So explainable why they lost that game to New Orleans. Yeah,
- 15:08Speaker 2: I mean.
- 15:10Speaker 1: It's a tough one, but I think I would lead
- 15:11Speaker 1: to the Bucks again, the better team, the more experienced team.
- 15:15Speaker 1: For now, we'll see what the market read looks like tomorrow.
- 15:17Speaker 1: And that one though, Chiefs Titans, oh boy, before everything
- 15:23Speaker 1: went wrong for the Chiefs. And by the way, Rashi
- 15:26Speaker 1: Rice is now heard as well after getting beat up
- 15:29Speaker 1: last week. So my fantasy team is completely Fox. So
- 15:32Speaker 1: isn't that just great? I get the one seed and
- 15:35Speaker 1: now I have no Mahomes, I have no Rice. Jonathan
- 15:38Speaker 1: Taylor has a shit quarterback. Now, fuck, just come on,
- 15:43Speaker 1: just I am so fucking pissed, dude. I mean, I
- 15:46Speaker 1: don't know what else to say. I can't believe that
- 15:48Speaker 1: I had a great fantasy season. Now all this shit happens.
- 15:51Speaker 1: Come on, and I lost Sam Laporta late into the
- 15:54Speaker 1: season two, so that's just fucking great. But yeah, the
- 15:59Speaker 1: Chiefs before mahomes is injury, the Chiefs are gonna be
- 16:03Speaker 1: an eleven point favorite in this game. Now they're a
- 16:06Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. Now is that an
- 16:08Speaker 1: over adjustment? I mean probably. I mean Gardner Minshew is
- 16:14Speaker 1: gonna be the quarterback for the Chiefs. He's got a
- 16:16Speaker 1: lot of experience. But there's a lot of moving parts
- 16:19Speaker 1: in this game, man, So yeah, I think there is
- 16:22Speaker 1: some line value on the Chiefs with that line having moved,
- 16:26Speaker 1: whatever that is, I mean eight points. Is that really
- 16:28Speaker 1: an eight point drop off from Mahomes to Minshew.
- 16:32Speaker 2: I'm not sure that it is.
- 16:33Speaker 1: I don't think there's really an eight point drop off
- 16:36Speaker 1: between like any set of quarterbacks really, unless it's the
- 16:39Speaker 1: most extreme situation that you could think of. We're looking
- 16:42Speaker 1: at a really low total in this game, though, thirty
- 16:45Speaker 1: seven and a half, so taking the points does kind
- 16:48Speaker 1: of make sense in that regard.
- 16:49Speaker 2: The money does look like it is on the Titans.
- 16:51Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of tickets on the Chiefs, sixty seven
- 16:54Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Titans. Now you have
- 16:57Speaker 1: to figure out what you think about the situation here, because, yeah,
- 17:01Speaker 1: it's an injured player theory spot for the Chiefs, right,
- 17:04Speaker 1: so you might think the Chiefs might show up and play,
- 17:07Speaker 1: you know, like, are they gonna just abandon Minshew and
- 17:10Speaker 1: just packing it in on the season.
- 17:11Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I I kind.
- 17:15Speaker 1: Of think that they won't, because, you know, the injured
- 17:17Speaker 1: player spot, usually the team gets up for it.
- 17:19Speaker 2: Oh, we have to play hard without an injured player.
- 17:21Speaker 1: But then, of course you have to contrast that with
- 17:23Speaker 1: the fact that this is a dream crusher spot. The
- 17:26Speaker 1: Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs, even though most power
- 17:30Speaker 1: ratings guys have them as like the sixth best team
- 17:32Speaker 1: in football with Mahomes and Rice there and now the Chiefs.
- 17:37Speaker 1: They have not missed the playoffs for like six years.
- 17:40Speaker 2: So how are the Chiefs.
- 17:42Speaker 1: Gonna respond to this being the first time in six
- 17:44Speaker 1: years that they are dream crushed and they don't make
- 17:47Speaker 1: the playoffs? I don't know, man, I mean, it looks
- 17:51Speaker 1: like the money is fading the Chiefs for that reason
- 17:53Speaker 1: because it is the dream crusher. Even though it seems
- 17:55Speaker 1: like the public is kind of of that mindset that
- 17:58Speaker 1: the Chiefs are dead as well, but the public is
- 18:01Speaker 1: not going to play the Titans.
- 18:02Speaker 2: Dude, They're just not gonna do it.
- 18:05Speaker 1: So, I mean, I think it's mostly professional money coming
- 18:07Speaker 1: in of the Titans. I mean, oh god, I mean
- 18:10Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards taking the points of the Titans.
- 18:13Speaker 1: I think the Titans, I mean, they'll try to show
- 18:15Speaker 1: up for it. I mean, you get to play a game.
- 18:17Speaker 1: It's the Chiefs that have been so good for so long.
- 18:20Speaker 1: Titans are coming back from the Pacific coast, though, which
- 18:23Speaker 1: isn't that easy. They went out to San Francisco and
- 18:25Speaker 1: they kind of played respectably, only losing by thirteen points,
- 18:30Speaker 1: so I think they actually covered some of the numbers there.
- 18:32Speaker 1: I think it was thirteen and a half out there
- 18:35Speaker 1: in some of the games and whatever, so they actually.
- 18:38Speaker 2: Covered the number for some people in that game.
- 18:42Speaker 1: I don't know, man, this is a game I'm obviously
- 18:44Speaker 1: completely avoiding, but the money looks like it is saying
- 18:47Speaker 1: the Titans here. I don't really want to disagree with
- 18:49Speaker 1: that much of a market read there. All right, Chargers
- 18:53Speaker 1: Cowboys is gonna be one of my plays, so I'll
- 18:55Speaker 1: hold that Falcons Cardinals is also Cadinals. Chadg Is that's
- 19:01Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays as well, so I'll
- 19:02Speaker 1: hold that till the end. That's we're in the four
- 19:04Speaker 1: pm slate now here. Oh, actually, let me jump down
- 19:08Speaker 1: to Bengals Dolphins, which is now in the one pm slate,
- 19:12Speaker 1: So I'll do that one now. This game, I mean,
- 19:17Speaker 1: things are getting a little bit ridiculous here. Bengals are
- 19:21Speaker 1: up to a four point favorite here from what was
- 19:23Speaker 1: gonna be a pick them, although I think they're probably
- 19:25Speaker 1: gonna be about a one maybe two point favorite here.
- 19:27Speaker 1: But now the line has moved further because the Dolphins
- 19:30Speaker 1: bench Tua.
- 19:32Speaker 2: Which is that the right move?
- 19:34Speaker 1: I don't know, man, because I talked about how bad
- 19:36Speaker 1: Tua is in freezing weather, and that's what just happened.
- 19:39Speaker 1: The Dolphins were just a completely lifeless team on Monday
- 19:43Speaker 1: night and everybody saw that game, well at least the people.
- 19:46Speaker 2: That can still watch Monday night football, I guess.
- 19:49Speaker 1: But Tua is awful and freezing temperatures, dude, I mentioned
- 19:52Speaker 1: that that was I kind of lean to the Dolphins
- 19:54Speaker 1: in that game just based on the situation, but I
- 19:56Speaker 1: couldn't do it because Tua is just awful. In freezing
- 20:00Speaker 1: I think he's now zero to six both straight up
- 20:03Speaker 1: and against the spread and freezing temperatures. Dolphins didn't even
- 20:07Speaker 1: show up, but now because of that they benched to
- 20:10Speaker 1: Now they're gonna see what they have with Quinn.
- 20:12Speaker 2: Viewers yours, Tago Violoa.
- 20:16Speaker 1: I guess he's gonna be the quarterback here, So the
- 20:20Speaker 1: oddsmakers are not respecting that, and they've moved the line
- 20:23Speaker 1: to the four point favorite.
- 20:24Speaker 2: With the Bengals, who are still going with Joe Barrow.
- 20:27Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure here. I mean, he's not injured, so.
- 20:30Speaker 1: I guess they're gonna let him play out the stretch here.
- 20:32Speaker 1: Though the Bengals are dead. Both these teams are dead.
- 20:36Speaker 1: But the Dolphins are on a short week because they
- 20:38Speaker 1: played on Monday. But a lot of times I kind
- 20:40Speaker 1: of want to look towards the team that looked bad
- 20:43Speaker 1: on Monday night because everybody saw them look awful, So
- 20:46Speaker 1: there's usually some value in playing that team next week.
- 20:49Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, I mean, these rookies in
- 20:52Speaker 1: their debut tend to not do that well. Even though
- 20:54Speaker 1: I did play Jackson Dart's debut because I actually thought
- 20:58Speaker 1: he was gonna be good and we got the win
- 21:00Speaker 1: on that when the outright win against the Chargers. But
- 21:03Speaker 1: for guys like Brady Cook last week, I mean I
- 21:05Speaker 1: did lean that way, but he was awful quinn Ewers,
- 21:08Speaker 1: I I don't think he's gonna be any good man.
- 21:11Speaker 1: So I worry about this and the Bengals. The one
- 21:14Speaker 1: thing the Bengals have going for them is they're coming
- 21:17Speaker 1: off getting shut out by the Ravens, and teams after
- 21:21Speaker 1: being shut out in the NFL this season are now
- 21:24Speaker 1: five and zero against the spread the next week, and
- 21:27Speaker 1: they're four and one.
- 21:28Speaker 2: Straight up as well.
- 21:29Speaker 1: So that's a good indicator with US Cincinnati here, although
- 21:34Speaker 1: the one caveat or actually no, I think they're just
- 21:36Speaker 1: five and oh against the spread, right, because usually those teams.
- 21:39Speaker 2: Are gonna be underdogs, right, So I don't know what
- 21:40Speaker 2: I'm saying.
- 21:41Speaker 1: They're five and oh against the spread though, But I
- 21:43Speaker 1: think the one caveat here is that the Bengals are
- 21:45Speaker 1: gonna be the biggest favorite of the season in that
- 21:48Speaker 1: situation coming off of a shutout loss. But teams tend
- 21:52Speaker 1: to do well after a shutout loss. Man they just
- 21:55Speaker 1: they tend to focus because it's just embarrassing to get
- 21:57Speaker 1: shut out. The Bengals were off in that game against
- 22:00Speaker 1: the Ravens. Joe Burrow looked like he was almost intentionally
- 22:04Speaker 1: throwing interceptions in that game, So I don't know. In
- 22:06Speaker 1: that respect, I could see maybe leaning towards the Bengals here,
- 22:11Speaker 1: you know, Miami on a short week, but both teams
- 22:15Speaker 1: looked so bad last week. But then again, yeah, I
- 22:19Speaker 1: don't want to trust a rookie QB here either, but
- 22:21Speaker 1: at least with the rookie QB, maybe the Dolphins will
- 22:24Speaker 1: get fired up for it.
- 22:26Speaker 2: But then again, the Dolphins were.
- 22:27Speaker 1: I think alive in the playoff race maybe until they
- 22:31Speaker 1: took that loss on Monday night, And I'm not sure
- 22:33Speaker 1: about maybe they weren't actually because for the AFC, you're
- 22:35Speaker 1: gonna have to have a pretty good record. So maybe
- 22:37Speaker 1: I'm wrong, maybe the Dolphins were not alive. But whatever,
- 22:41Speaker 1: I mean, this is a hard game to read.
- 22:43Speaker 2: Man.
- 22:44Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of ticket, seventy six percent of the
- 22:46Speaker 1: cash on the Bengals. It's a fairly high total forty
- 22:50Speaker 1: eight and a half.
- 22:51Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
- 22:53Speaker 1: I don't really love laying points on the road though, man,
- 22:57Speaker 1: But the that shutout coming off a shutout trend is
- 23:01Speaker 1: pretty strong, so maybe you gotta lean to the Bengals
- 23:04Speaker 1: for that reason. Of course, I'm not gonna give this
- 23:07Speaker 1: out as a plan. And in like the ESPN Pick
- 23:09Speaker 1: thems and whatever, the Bengals are like a one point
- 23:11Speaker 1: favorite in those games. So I think, yeah, if you're
- 23:13Speaker 1: getting a line like that and like a pick them game,
- 23:15Speaker 1: yeah take the Bengals to just win the game. But yeah,
- 23:20Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know about laying four points, man.
- 23:23Speaker 1: I might start kind of leaning in the other direction.
- 23:27Speaker 1: That being the case. All Right, the four PM games
- 23:30Speaker 1: here that are not the ones on my well there's
- 23:32Speaker 1: only one on my card. But Jaggs Broncos is an
- 23:35Speaker 1: interesting one. The Broncos are up to three and a
- 23:37Speaker 1: half point favorite here, sixty percent of the tickets is
- 23:40Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash on the Broncos.
- 23:43Speaker 2: I kind of lean in the other direction, man. I
- 23:45Speaker 2: mean the Broncos.
- 23:46Speaker 1: I know they've been good at home and they have
- 23:47Speaker 1: that mile high advantage here, But the Broncos don't need
- 23:51Speaker 1: this game as much as the Jaguars do, and the
- 23:53Speaker 1: Jaguars are getting points here, and I think the Broncos
- 23:57Speaker 1: may be a little bit overvalued right now, man, which
- 23:59Speaker 1: is crazy to think about because the Jags have been
- 24:01Speaker 1: scoring so many points recently. Like, this is a team
- 24:04Speaker 1: that scored thirty six and then forty eight in their
- 24:07Speaker 1: last two games, and you're telling me that the market
- 24:10Speaker 1: is actually undervaluing them. I think that is the case
- 24:13Speaker 1: because the Broncos keep winning. But remember I keep saying
- 24:16Speaker 1: the Broncos have faced a week schedule. I still don't
- 24:19Speaker 1: think their offense is very good, so they're not really
- 24:22Speaker 1: great as a favorite. They win a lot of close
- 24:25Speaker 1: games the Broncos do, Man, And again, the Broncos have
- 24:28Speaker 1: a lot of padding right now. And the Broncos are
- 24:31Speaker 1: coming off another nice win against green Bay where they
- 24:33Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have won that game. I mean, green Bay
- 24:36Speaker 1: was winning that game by nine and marching down the
- 24:38Speaker 1: field again and then they turned the ball over and
- 24:41Speaker 1: Denver wound up going the other way and getting a
- 24:43Speaker 1: touchdown on it, which completely swung the game. So maybe
- 24:47Speaker 1: a little bit misleading in that respect. And Denver does
- 24:50Speaker 1: have Kansas City on a short turn around. They have
- 24:52Speaker 1: to play Kansas City on Thursday night on Christmas actually
- 24:56Speaker 1: as part of the Christmas slate, so I know Kansas
- 24:58Speaker 1: City's out of it.
- 25:00Speaker 2: But you know that's a big.
- 25:01Speaker 1: Game, man, Denver against Kansas City, that's always big. And
- 25:06Speaker 1: Denver does have the Chargers to finish off the season,
- 25:08Speaker 1: and that's big because that's gonna be potentially, you know,
- 25:11Speaker 1: the clinch. Denver basically controls their own destiny. Like, as
- 25:14Speaker 1: long as they beat the Chargers regardless of what else happens,
- 25:17Speaker 1: and that's at home for Denver, regardless of what else happens,
- 25:21Speaker 1: Denver will win the division in that case. So again,
- 25:26Speaker 1: I don't think this game means as much to Denver
- 25:28Speaker 1: here against the Jags. The Jags are still kind of
- 25:30Speaker 1: in this cluster in the AFC CELT with Houston right
- 25:34Speaker 1: behind them. Jags coming up an easy game against the Jets,
- 25:38Speaker 1: they end easier time of it last week going back
- 25:40Speaker 1: out on the road here. Yeah, they have Indi next,
- 25:43Speaker 1: but that's a lot less of a look ahead now
- 25:45Speaker 1: that India's dropped off and Daniel Jones is gone. Indy
- 25:49Speaker 1: is not gonna make the playoffs at this point. Jags
- 25:52Speaker 1: already beat them once, so I expect the Jags to
- 25:54Speaker 1: be focused here.
- 25:55Speaker 2: I would take the points.
- 25:57Speaker 1: With the Jags in that one and again, I think
- 25:59Speaker 1: you're getting little bit of line value here. I think
- 26:02Speaker 1: Denver should probably be closer to like a one to
- 26:04Speaker 1: two point favorite in this game man, based on like
- 26:06Speaker 1: the power ratings guys and what they have there.
- 26:11Speaker 2: We also got Steelers Lions.
- 26:13Speaker 1: The Lions are off for a six point favorite to
- 26:15Speaker 1: a seven point favorite here, highest total on the board.
- 26:17Speaker 1: I believe that fifty two Lions could definitely score. Steelers
- 26:22Speaker 1: don't have a very good defense, even though they have
- 26:24Speaker 1: that name recognition where you think they have a good defense,
- 26:27Speaker 1: but no, they do not. Eighty nine percent of tickets,
- 26:30Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the Lions. Now, the Steelers,
- 26:35Speaker 1: they look to good on Monday Night, but the public
- 26:38Speaker 1: is still coming in on the Lions. The public likes
- 26:40Speaker 1: the Lions more. The Lions do need this game more.
- 26:43Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about how when a team
- 26:45Speaker 1: needs the game more, they tend to be a little
- 26:47Speaker 1: bit overvalued in the market. And I don't like laying
- 26:50Speaker 1: points when a team needs the game like that because
- 26:53Speaker 1: it's like more of a pressure pressure situation, and you know,
- 26:56Speaker 1: you're not really getting line value on it. So I'm
- 26:58Speaker 1: not really sure that I want to lay the point
- 27:00Speaker 1: to the Lions here, but the Steelers.
- 27:04Speaker 2: Their season literally comes down to the Baltimore game.
- 27:07Speaker 1: Like, even if the Steelers lose this game and lose
- 27:10Speaker 1: to Cleveland next week, all they have to do is
- 27:12Speaker 1: beat Baltimore and they still win the division to get in.
- 27:15Speaker 1: And these teams are not gonna be wildcards, Pittsburgh or Baltimore.
- 27:19Speaker 1: One of these teams is gonna win the division and
- 27:20Speaker 1: get into the playoffs and the other team is gonna
- 27:22Speaker 1: be out. And for Pittsburgh again, all they have to
- 27:26Speaker 1: do is beat Baltimore at home in the final week
- 27:28Speaker 1: and they're in.
- 27:29Speaker 2: That's it.
- 27:30Speaker 1: So even if Pittsburgh loses both games, falls to eight
- 27:33Speaker 1: to eight and Baltimore jumps up to nine and seven,
- 27:36Speaker 1: Pittsburgh beating Baltimore would have the tiebreaker because they already
- 27:39Speaker 1: beat Baltimore once, so they would retie them, have the
- 27:42Speaker 1: tiebreaker and get in. So Pittsburgh actually doesn't even need
- 27:45Speaker 1: this game. They're on a short week, going on the
- 27:48Speaker 1: road again, second road game in three weeks. They look
- 27:51Speaker 1: good on Monday night, but Miami, really Miami looked bad.
- 27:55Speaker 1: And again Detroit needs this game because they have to
- 27:59Speaker 1: get a wildcard. At this point, Detroit does, so they
- 28:01Speaker 1: really need this game more. Detroit is coming off a
- 28:05Speaker 1: tough game though against the Rams manner. They had to
- 28:07Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast, only lost by seven.
- 28:10Speaker 1: They were definitely fighting in that game. They had the
- 28:12Speaker 1: lead in that game. I think at halftime they might
- 28:16Speaker 1: have even had the lead there. So that was a
- 28:18Speaker 1: tough game. So I don't really love the spot that
- 28:20Speaker 1: Detroit is in here. They finished with Minnesota and Chicago,
- 28:23Speaker 1: which are big because they're divisional games, but again, Detroit
- 28:27Speaker 1: can't win the division at this point, so they got
- 28:31Speaker 1: to get the wildcard. Man, so every game does matter
- 28:34Speaker 1: to them. So I mean, gun to my head, I
- 28:37Speaker 1: probably would have to still lean to Detroit in this one.
- 28:41Speaker 1: I don't love it though, for all the reasons I
- 28:43Speaker 1: just said, and they're also really really public. I want
- 28:45Speaker 1: to see what the market winds up looking like here.
- 28:47Speaker 1: But also the other thing is we got the Dan
- 28:49Speaker 1: Campbell bounce back.
- 28:50Speaker 2: Situation working for us.
- 28:52Speaker 1: You've seen Detroit. Look at them alternating wins and losses. Man,
- 28:55Speaker 1: So Detroit, every time they've lost the game, they bounce
- 28:59Speaker 1: back and in the next one, and I believe they
- 29:01Speaker 1: covered every single time too. Actually, know they didn't cover
- 29:05Speaker 1: against the Giants, my mistake. They covered all but that
- 29:08Speaker 1: game against the Giants, though, and that was a bad spot.
- 29:11Speaker 1: I mean, they were looking ahead to the Thanksgiving game,
- 29:14Speaker 1: so we know the Lions. They bounced back really.
- 29:17Speaker 2: Well off losses. So there is that working in Detroit's
- 29:21Speaker 2: favor there.
- 29:23Speaker 1: And then we have maybe the ugliest game of all
- 29:26Speaker 1: Raiders Texans, where the Texans are fourteen point favorite in
- 29:31Speaker 1: a game that only has a total of thirty eight
- 29:32Speaker 1: and a half. I know I faded the Texans as
- 29:35Speaker 1: a double digit favorite last week, but I think you
- 29:37Speaker 1: got to do it again here. If you're gonna play
- 29:39Speaker 1: the game, I don't want to play it at all, obviously,
- 29:42Speaker 1: But I mean the Texans, I mean they're more of
- 29:44Speaker 1: a defensive minded team.
- 29:47Speaker 2: Low total.
- 29:47Speaker 1: Here, you're telling me they got to win by two touchdowns.
- 29:50Speaker 1: I know it's the Raiders. I know how bad they've looked,
- 29:52Speaker 1: but asking the Texans to win by a margin like
- 29:56Speaker 1: that is just ridiculous. And the Texans ninety five percent
- 29:59Speaker 1: of tickets, one percent of the cash on them. Public
- 30:02Speaker 1: loves Houston now because they keep winning Houston, believe it
- 30:06Speaker 1: or not.
- 30:06Speaker 2: They're sitting at nine to five, and they actually started the.
- 30:08Speaker 1: Season zero to three and Houston since then has gone
- 30:11Speaker 1: nine and two, and they've had some games without CJ.
- 30:15Speaker 1: Stroud and here too. They just massacred to Arizona last week.
- 30:19Speaker 2: Arizona. They just can't get it right.
- 30:21Speaker 1: And I'm still gonna do it again this week and
- 30:23Speaker 1: go back up to Arizona spoil or I'm I'm a
- 30:27Speaker 1: glutton for punishment, man.
- 30:29Speaker 2: But Houston, I just don't see it, man.
- 30:31Speaker 1: And they have bigger games remaining, going to the Chargers,
- 30:35Speaker 1: and then they got Indy to finish this off, and
- 30:37Speaker 1: the Chargers game might be big because Houston might have
- 30:41Speaker 1: to get one of the last wild cards here man,
- 30:44Speaker 1: and then Indy. You know, is still a big divisional matchup,
- 30:47Speaker 1: especially if Indies kind of hanging around there, if they
- 30:50Speaker 1: managed to hang around. So yeah, this game, you know,
- 30:55Speaker 1: it's not a game that I that I think Houston's
- 30:57Speaker 1: really gonna show up for. And the Raiders are in
- 31:00Speaker 1: that spot that I talked about. We have two teams
- 31:02Speaker 1: that got shut out last week.
- 31:04Speaker 2: The Raiders are one of them. They lost thirty one
- 31:06Speaker 2: to nothing to Philly. Now it is gonna be their
- 31:08Speaker 2: third road game in four weeks, so I don't love that.
- 31:11Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give this out as a play or anything,
- 31:13Speaker 1: but you gotta think they're gonna show up for something,
- 31:16Speaker 1: man for pride, at least after getting shut out again.
- 31:19Speaker 1: Teams have covered every single time this year coming off
- 31:22Speaker 1: a shutout, and there is a trend that goes back
- 31:25Speaker 1: years in the NFL where it is a positive trend.
- 31:28Speaker 2: I think it's something like it's.
- 31:30Speaker 1: On like a thirty seven and fifteen against the spread
- 31:33Speaker 1: run to play on the team that got shut out.
- 31:35Speaker 2: The previous week.
- 31:37Speaker 1: It seems like we've had more of them this year
- 31:39Speaker 1: than usual, though, But the Raiders are in that spot.
- 31:41Speaker 1: And by the way, Gino Smith should be back for
- 31:43Speaker 1: this game. Kenny Pickett was miserable last week. I think
- 31:48Speaker 1: the Raiders had like seventy something yards of total offense.
- 31:51Speaker 2: But you don't have to worry about Kenny Pickett anymore.
- 31:54Speaker 1: Man. At least Gino Smith will be back. I know
- 31:57Speaker 1: they haven't been great with him either, but he's gotta
- 31:59Speaker 1: be in up. Great from Kenny Pickett, man. I know
- 32:02Speaker 1: I talk about reverse injured player spot when the quarterback
- 32:04Speaker 1: comes back, but I mean, he can't possibly be worse
- 32:09Speaker 1: than what happened last week. So probably good that Gino
- 32:12Speaker 1: Smith is back. I would take the boys with the
- 32:14Speaker 1: Raiders if you force me to give you a pick
- 32:16Speaker 1: on that one, but I'm not gonna play it.
- 32:20Speaker 2: Cracking one woo yeah six and oh day baby, you
- 32:25Speaker 2: gotta love it.
- 32:26Speaker 1: I kind of wish I played Miami to be I
- 32:28Speaker 1: kind of wish I gave out Miami in football, but
- 32:31Speaker 1: that I that was I unbelievably low scoring game, dude.
- 32:36Speaker 1: But I was right about two out of three of
- 32:38Speaker 1: the spread plays in college football, so I'm not sad
- 32:42Speaker 1: about that. And we have Sunday dedicated to NFL so
- 32:45Speaker 1: we don't have to worry about college football again for
- 32:48Speaker 1: a little while here. But yeah, so there was that
- 32:51Speaker 1: I picked Miami straight up in my in my other
- 32:54Speaker 1: my straight up pools there as well, So there you go. Okay,
- 33:00Speaker 1: now we got best bets here now right? Well, actually, no, no, no,
- 33:04Speaker 1: I'm talking about the night games. First, Patriots Ravens. This
- 33:08Speaker 1: is a game where the Patriots are a public underdog man,
- 33:13Speaker 1: And you know I warrant about public underdogs. You want
- 33:16Speaker 1: to fade them more often than not. You basically either
- 33:20Speaker 1: want to fade them or just stay away, because a
- 33:22Speaker 1: public underdog basically means that you're fading the public and
- 33:26Speaker 1: you're playing a team that's good, in this case the Ravens.
- 33:28Speaker 2: Yeah, I consider them to be a good team.
- 33:31Speaker 1: Patriots seventy two percent of tickets, only sixty four percent
- 33:34Speaker 1: of the cash on them, but the public is still
- 33:36Speaker 1: coming in on them, thinking, the Patriots have won ten
- 33:38Speaker 1: games in a row, Man, and they almost beat Buffalo.
- 33:41Speaker 1: They look really good in that game against Buffalo, right,
- 33:45Speaker 1: the almost won the game again, had a twenty one
- 33:47Speaker 1: to nothing lead.
- 33:49Speaker 2: Like the public's gonna think, there's no way the.
- 33:51Speaker 1: Patriots are gonna lose two games in a row, especially
- 33:53Speaker 1: they have the way better record than the Ravens, and
- 33:55Speaker 1: the public is saying, oh, I'm getting points now.
- 33:57Speaker 2: With the Patriots. It looks really easy to take the
- 34:00Speaker 2: Patriots here. Remember I would not do it.
- 34:02Speaker 1: I would lay it with the Ravens here if I
- 34:05Speaker 1: was gonna play it now. The problem is this line
- 34:07Speaker 1: is moving way up, Man, and it was gonna be
- 34:09Speaker 1: one prior to last week, which seems bizarre to me
- 34:12Speaker 1: because why would the look Ahead have been won? And
- 34:15Speaker 1: then why is it now three? Just based on the
- 34:17Speaker 1: Ravens shutting out a Bengals team that can't play any defense.
- 34:21Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense because the Patriots looked really
- 34:24Speaker 2: good in defeat last week.
- 34:26Speaker 1: So I don't know why the line has moved this much,
- 34:28Speaker 1: but I would still lay it if you're getting three
- 34:32Speaker 1: or less with the Ravens here. But it is headed
- 34:34Speaker 1: towards three and a half and I would definitely not
- 34:37Speaker 1: really want to lay the hook there. I mean, three
- 34:38Speaker 1: is a key number there. I do think Baltimore will
- 34:41Speaker 1: get the win here. The game doesn't mean as much
- 34:43Speaker 1: to New England. New England, I mean they already have
- 34:47Speaker 1: some patting here. I mean, yeah, they want to win
- 34:50Speaker 1: the division, sure, but they're sitting really pretty. I mean,
- 34:54Speaker 1: they only need one more win to clitch a playoff spot,
- 34:56Speaker 1: but you know they're gonna do that. I mean, they
- 34:58Speaker 1: play the Jets in Miami next so probably they won't
- 35:01Speaker 1: lose either of those games. So but this game, I mean,
- 35:05Speaker 1: I think this is the like this is one of
- 35:08Speaker 1: the classic hangover spots man. I mean, you're talking about
- 35:11Speaker 1: a New England team that had not lost since Week
- 35:14Speaker 1: three of the season. They had ten wins in a row,
- 35:18Speaker 1: had their by and then they finally lost last week
- 35:21Speaker 1: in a huge game, huge divisional game against Buffalo. I
- 35:25Speaker 1: think this has Hangover spot written all over it. Man again,
- 35:29Speaker 1: like they're not used to losing like this. They had
- 35:31Speaker 1: that huge game, heartbreaking way to lose it when they
- 35:34Speaker 1: had Buffalo completely on the ropes. It was that game
- 35:37Speaker 1: where everybody was tweeting out, just like they were tweeting
- 35:39Speaker 1: out with the Oklahoma last night. Everybody's jumping the gun
- 35:42Speaker 1: and tweeting out. You know, just oh, this Patriots team
- 35:45Speaker 1: is for real, Stop making fun of them whatever.
- 35:48Speaker 2: You know this is a joke.
- 35:49Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, don't count your chickens before they hatch Man.
- 35:53Speaker 1: And then Buffalo winds up winning the game. That is
- 35:54Speaker 1: a brutal way for New England to lose that game.
- 35:57Speaker 1: Baltimore also needs the game more because, unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore
- 36:01Speaker 1: is actually behind them in the standing. So Baltimore cannot
- 36:04Speaker 1: afford to lose both games here.
- 36:06Speaker 2: And then still beat Pittsburgh. I don't believe.
- 36:09Speaker 1: I think if Baltimore loses both games and Pittsburgh wins
- 36:11Speaker 1: both of their games probably not gonna happen, though, because
- 36:14Speaker 1: I don't think Pittsburgh is gonna beat the Lions. But
- 36:18Speaker 1: and well Baltimore will know though, So that's that is
- 36:20Speaker 1: one problem. I guess, like Baltimore will be scoreboard watching
- 36:24Speaker 1: probably maybe, I mean, unless maybe Hardball will tell them
- 36:27Speaker 1: not to watch the scoreboard, man.
- 36:29Speaker 2: But if Baltimore.
- 36:30Speaker 1: Sees that Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Lions should be Monday night this week,
- 36:34Speaker 1: to be honest, because if Baltimore sees that Pittsburgh loses,
- 36:39Speaker 1: then Baltimore actually could get into a situation potentially where
- 36:43Speaker 1: all they got to do is win the game against.
- 36:45Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and then they'll make the playoffs.
- 36:48Speaker 1: But that is a road game though, so Baltimore, I mean,
- 36:51Speaker 1: it's a little bit more difficult of an ask to
- 36:53Speaker 1: ask them to win on the road there though. So
- 36:55Speaker 1: I think Baltimore they're gonna be more focused here, man,
- 36:58Speaker 1: especially because they have to face Green Bay Neck on
- 37:00Speaker 1: the road. And we don't know what Jordan Love's situation
- 37:03Speaker 1: is gonna because he exited the game today with a concussion,
- 37:07Speaker 1: so he might come back like he's gonna have to
- 37:09Speaker 1: clear concussion protocol. But there is the chance that Love
- 37:12Speaker 1: is back next week. It wasn't one of those injuries
- 37:15Speaker 1: where it's like definitive that he's gonna be out for
- 37:17Speaker 1: multiple games at this point. So Baltimore, this is their
- 37:20Speaker 1: final home game, you know, so I think they know
- 37:23Speaker 1: they kind of got to win this game.
- 37:25Speaker 2: But I think that's probably why the line is three though.
- 37:28Speaker 1: Because it's almost a kind of a must win for
- 37:30Speaker 1: the Ravens at this point. So you're laying maybe a
- 37:33Speaker 1: few too many points here. But I do like the
- 37:35Speaker 1: situation for Baltimore a lot more. Beating Cincinnati is just
- 37:39Speaker 1: kind of whatever at this point. Cincinnati is not good
- 37:41Speaker 1: this year. But also again that final home game, a
- 37:44Speaker 1: team usually does kind of step it up a little
- 37:46Speaker 1: bit for their final home game, like give the fans something,
- 37:49Speaker 1: although I think that's more of a phenomenon for like
- 37:51Speaker 1: bad teams though. But if I was gonna play it,
- 37:54Speaker 1: I would lay it with Baltimore.
- 37:56Speaker 2: But I am staying away.
- 37:59Speaker 1: You played Miami. I mean, hell yeah, thank you, sir.
- 38:01Speaker 1: Some of my picks weren't great, but uh yeah, I
- 38:04Speaker 1: mean that, dude. This is why, like I'm giving you
- 38:07Speaker 1: exactly like these are the bets, like nothing more nothing least,
- 38:11Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like I'm giving you out
- 38:12Speaker 1: opinions on some of these other games. So yeah, I
- 38:14Speaker 1: mean the opinions that I give out, Like, sure, if
- 38:16Speaker 1: you want to, like you know, have some fun with it,
- 38:19Speaker 1: put some money on those, yeah, I mean, but I
- 38:22Speaker 1: mean if you if you really want to, like we're
- 38:24Speaker 1: focusing on like trying to profit here, and you know,
- 38:28Speaker 1: I'm recommending like only for like those substantial amounts of
- 38:32Speaker 1: money only doing exactly what I'm saying and playing those uh,
- 38:35Speaker 1: those particular games there.
- 38:36Speaker 2: But yes, we're we're on fire right now. Man.
- 38:39Speaker 1: Like I feel like I might be like the best
- 38:42Speaker 1: handicapper in the world over the last like three months. Man,
- 38:46Speaker 1: I've I mean, I've done this for like almost nineteen
- 38:49Speaker 1: years now, whatever. I've had some runs that have been
- 38:52Speaker 1: really really good, but I don't think I can remember
- 38:54Speaker 1: a run that's been this good for this extended period
- 38:57Speaker 1: of time. Like, how many losing days do I have
- 39:00Speaker 1: since like the beginning of September? Like, I think you
- 39:03Speaker 1: might be able to count them on one hand. It's
- 39:05Speaker 1: not that many.
- 39:07Speaker 2: It might be a little bit more than that, but
- 39:08Speaker 2: I think it's fewer than ten. It's crazy, dude.
- 39:12Speaker 1: Again, I think thirteen winning days in a row here
- 39:15Speaker 1: as well, though some of them have been really small,
- 39:18Speaker 1: and one of them the other day relied on you
- 39:20Speaker 1: sprinkling on the money line to get it there on
- 39:22Speaker 1: the Pelicans.
- 39:23Speaker 2: But yeah, thank you, sir. I want to keep it going, man.
- 39:26Speaker 1: I mean there's gonna be like a bad downswing again
- 39:29Speaker 1: at some point, you know. I mean it happens like
- 39:31Speaker 1: because skill, I mean, skill gets you to a certain
- 39:35Speaker 1: point here, but you know there is also luck involved here,
- 39:39Speaker 1: all right, And we'll talk about the Monday night game
- 39:40Speaker 1: as well, which I'll talk about again on Monday.
- 39:43Speaker 2: I don't have a strong.
- 39:43Speaker 1: Feel for this one at all, but it is forty
- 39:45Speaker 1: nine ers Colts. Niners are up from five and a
- 39:48Speaker 1: half to six. They're gonna be public, and they're laying
- 39:51Speaker 1: points on the road. And you know, usually I look
- 39:53Speaker 1: for these home dogs in primetime, but this one, I'm
- 39:57Speaker 1: not so sure. Seventy two percent to take it, seventy
- 40:00Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the Niners. Niners are
- 40:03Speaker 1: gonna be public, but it's possible that the money is
- 40:06Speaker 1: also gonna be coming in on the Niners. Niners had
- 40:09Speaker 1: a really easy game against Tennessee last week, and yeah,
- 40:11Speaker 1: they're playing a second road game in three weeks. But
- 40:15Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they're gonna be that fatigued
- 40:19Speaker 1: or anything like that coming into this one. The Niners,
- 40:21Speaker 1: I mean, they are still playing for something, whereas I guess.
- 40:24Speaker 2: Indy, you know, technically Indie, I guess is not totally.
- 40:27Speaker 1: I don't think they're completely eliminated yet, but I mean
- 40:31Speaker 1: they're really completely on the ropes here man, without Daniel
- 40:34Speaker 1: Jones now, and they had their big game last week
- 40:37Speaker 1: or they had to go to the Pacific coast.
- 40:38Speaker 2: They played two.
- 40:39Speaker 1: Straight road games and they flew cross country to do it,
- 40:43Speaker 1: and now they're coming back again. So last two weeks
- 40:45Speaker 1: they had to fly from Jacksonville out to Seattle and
- 40:49Speaker 1: then Seattle now back to Indy here. And remember that
- 40:52Speaker 1: was the injured player spot last week where Indy stepped
- 40:55Speaker 1: up their game big time with Philip Rivers in there,
- 40:59Speaker 1: and they almost pulled off an upset as double digit
- 41:03Speaker 1: dogs in that one. So they might have emptied the tank. Man,
- 41:06Speaker 1: I don't know what they're gonna have left here, though.
- 41:08Speaker 1: I do talk about how when a team isn't going anywhere,
- 41:10Speaker 1: they do they do show up for primetime games though,
- 41:13Speaker 1: so they may still do that. But second game, you know,
- 41:16Speaker 1: after the first game, you know, that big emotional high
- 41:20Speaker 1: with Rivers coming back whatever.
- 41:22Speaker 2: Second game off of that, I don't really love it, man.
- 41:24Speaker 1: I mean, I'm kind of leaning towards the Niners in
- 41:26Speaker 1: this one, but we'll have to wait and see what
- 41:29Speaker 1: the market looks like and whatever. It's not one that
- 41:31Speaker 1: I love at all, really, but I don't know, that's
- 41:35Speaker 1: just kind of the uh that was kind of my
- 41:37Speaker 1: gut instinct on that one. At least.
- 41:39Speaker 2: What I do love is my plays I'm gonna give
- 41:41Speaker 2: out here.
- 41:42Speaker 1: And by the way, if I was gonna add one
- 41:43Speaker 1: more play, which will probably be the last one that
- 41:46Speaker 1: makes my pick five, which I lost on the fucking
- 41:49Speaker 1: Seahawks because we had one and a half in the
- 41:52Speaker 1: contest that I'm in. But if I was gonna add
- 41:54Speaker 1: one more would be the Browns plus the points. Don't
- 41:57Speaker 1: like the spot for the Bills at all. Like I said,
- 41:59Speaker 1: it's the same much spot. But let's let's do it, man.
- 42:03Speaker 2: Best bets.
- 42:10Speaker 1: And these are gonna be ugly again, you know, I mean,
- 42:12Speaker 1: you know how I do this, Like all three of
- 42:15Speaker 1: these are pretty ugly. First one up, you know, yeah,
- 42:19Speaker 1: this is gonna be really ugly. But the money is
- 42:21Speaker 1: agreeing with me on this one. We're gonna be on
- 42:22Speaker 1: the New York Giants, and I'm gonna say wait on
- 42:26Speaker 1: this one. It's at two and a half right now,
- 42:28Speaker 1: but I think you're gonna be able to get three.
- 42:30Speaker 1: I mean, it looks like the Vikings are up to
- 42:31Speaker 1: two and a half with juice here.
- 42:33Speaker 2: Before last week it.
- 42:34Speaker 1: Was gonna be one and a half, So you're gonna
- 42:36Speaker 1: be getting some value. Especially if it hits three, You're
- 42:38Speaker 1: getting that key number. I would yeah, just wait, I mean,
- 42:42Speaker 1: I think the threes are gonna be up there soon,
- 42:44Speaker 1: especially when the public starts betting this coming into tomorrow.
- 42:47Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be able to find a three.
- 42:49Speaker 1: If I find one, I'm gonna put it in the
- 42:51Speaker 1: show notes here and make it three. Uh sixty six
- 42:54Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the Vikings, sixty three percent of
- 42:56Speaker 1: the cash gonna be back on the Giant side though,
- 43:00Speaker 1: probably still play the Giants at two and a half.
- 43:01Speaker 2: But I'm almost positive you're.
- 43:03Speaker 1: Gonna get the three, So there's no reason to not wait,
- 43:05Speaker 1: like right up until game time. If you can't find
- 43:09Speaker 1: it before then, you know what I mean, I think
- 43:12Speaker 1: you will find it. But this is this spot for
- 43:15Speaker 1: the Vikings is awful? Dude, Like the Vikings, I mean,
- 43:18Speaker 1: they're not going anywhere. And you know, we talk about it,
- 43:21Speaker 1: like what games does the team get up for when
- 43:22Speaker 1: they're a dead team on the season. Yeah, they get
- 43:25Speaker 1: up for divisional games and primetime games. Well what did
- 43:29Speaker 1: Minnesota just do last week? Yeah, they played in a
- 43:32Speaker 1: primetime game and they upset the Dallas Cowboys on the
- 43:35Speaker 1: road on Sunday night and everybody saw it. So that
- 43:38Speaker 1: was a huge upset win for Minnesota. Now they're playing
- 43:42Speaker 1: a second straight road game and it's also a fourth
- 43:45Speaker 1: road game in the last five weeks, I believe, which
- 43:47Speaker 1: is brutal. I mean that is a brutal amount of travel, dude.
- 43:51Speaker 1: There By was a lot earlier look at this travel
- 43:53Speaker 1: they did. Thursday night, they had to go out to
- 43:55Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast to La to the Chargers.
- 43:58Speaker 2: They came back and they had to play Oh no wait, yeah,
- 44:00Speaker 2: they had to play in Detroit.
- 44:02Speaker 1: Oh no, wait, no no, that was before that, so
- 44:04Speaker 1: hold on, that was going back to October twenty third.
- 44:06Speaker 2: So they've actually this is gonna.
- 44:08Speaker 1: Be a sixth road game in nine weeks as well.
- 44:12Speaker 2: But more recently though, the more recent ones. They were
- 44:15Speaker 2: at green.
- 44:16Speaker 1: Bay, then they had to go out to the Pacific
- 44:17Speaker 1: Coast and play Seattle. Then they came home for a
- 44:20Speaker 1: game against Washington, then they went down to Dallas, and
- 44:22Speaker 1: now they're going East coast, early start time to the
- 44:25Speaker 1: to the Giants, I don't think they're gonna show up, man,
- 44:29Speaker 1: And look at what they have next. They have a
- 44:30Speaker 1: quick turnaround time and they play on Christmas against the Lions.
- 44:34Speaker 1: And what did I just say? A dead team? What
- 44:38Speaker 1: type of game are they gonna get up for? Divisional
- 44:40Speaker 1: game where they could play spoiler especially that qualifies for
- 44:44Speaker 1: that game against the Lions, also isolated game that's gonna
- 44:49Speaker 1: be on national TV, in this case Netflix, that also
- 44:53Speaker 1: qualifies as a huge Christmas game. So this is a
- 44:56Speaker 1: massive sandwich spot that Minnesota is in. And then after
- 44:59Speaker 1: that they're final game is at home against green Bay,
- 45:02Speaker 1: which is another big game where they can also play
- 45:04Speaker 1: divisional spoilers. So this is absolutely the flat spot of
- 45:08Speaker 1: their schedule. Man, Minnesota, horrible, horrible spot for them and
- 45:13Speaker 1: for the Giants. You gotta think they're gonna show up here, man.
- 45:17Speaker 1: Giants have lost eight games in a row, nobody's gonna
- 45:20Speaker 1: want them at all. Second straight game at home after
- 45:23Speaker 1: coming out of the bye. You gotta think they're gonna
- 45:25Speaker 1: show up here. Man. Last week they were in a
- 45:28Speaker 1: decent spot, but I did like Washington last week. I
- 45:31Speaker 1: thought Washington was also in a pretty good spot. Last week,
- 45:33Speaker 1: the Giants did lose at home. But I think they're
- 45:37Speaker 1: gonna show up, man. This Giants team, they're gonna be
- 45:39Speaker 1: playing for Jackson Dart, you know, playing out the stretch here. Yeah,
- 45:44Speaker 1: I like the Giants, especially if they're getting points at home.
- 45:47Speaker 1: Minnesota is in a horrific spot, so yeah, I see
- 45:50Speaker 1: the Giants coming to play in this one, trying to
- 45:52Speaker 1: salvage something on the season.
- 45:54Speaker 2: Teams don't really.
- 45:55Speaker 1: Tank, dude, you know, especially with the Giants. I mean,
- 45:58Speaker 1: they have their QB Dart. They're not gonna be tanking
- 46:01Speaker 1: for a quarterback or anything like that. So they're gonna
- 46:04Speaker 1: be trying to win some games down the stretch. Giants,
- 46:06Speaker 1: most of their losses have been fairly close as well,
- 46:10Speaker 1: so they've been pretty competitive, more so than what their
- 46:12Speaker 1: record would let on. So it looks way too easy
- 46:16Speaker 1: to also fade the Giants here, Like you're almost like
- 46:19Speaker 1: asking just to win the game, like laying two and
- 46:21Speaker 1: a half.
- 46:22Speaker 2: Maybe with the Vikings.
- 46:23Speaker 1: Yeah, I will take the Giants, and again I think
- 46:26Speaker 1: you'll be able to get three on that, yes, sir,
- 46:29Speaker 1: all right, next up?
- 46:32Speaker 2: What's the next one?
- 46:35Speaker 1: This one is probably the most palatable, which is really
- 46:38Speaker 1: saying something because this one is pretty ugly. We're gonna
- 46:42Speaker 1: be on the Dallas Cowboys minus one and a half.
- 46:44Speaker 2: I saw one and a half.
- 46:45Speaker 1: Out there at I think it might have been at
- 46:48Speaker 1: Caesars in mass Mostly it's two out there, but hopefully
- 46:52Speaker 1: there's not that much of a difference between one and
- 46:54Speaker 1: a half and two. You could go money line if
- 46:57Speaker 1: you want to on this too, but we're gonna go
- 46:59Speaker 1: with the Dallas Cowboy And I think this is gonna
- 47:01Speaker 1: be the last hurrah for the Cowboys, or at least
- 47:04Speaker 1: maybe one of them, probably the last one. Actually, i'll
- 47:07Speaker 1: show you their schedule in a minute. But we're gonna
- 47:09Speaker 1: fade the Chargers and absolutely nobody is gonna play the
- 47:12Speaker 1: Cowboys here man, seventy three percent of tickets, eighty six
- 47:15Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Chargers. Chargers have the
- 47:18Speaker 1: better record. Everybody saw what the Chargers did the last
- 47:21Speaker 1: couple of weeks, man, so we're gonna fade that sentiment.
- 47:25Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I talk about these road out
- 47:27Speaker 1: of conference games here that don't mean as much because
- 47:30Speaker 1: when it comes down to tie breakers, it doesn't mean
- 47:32Speaker 1: as much. So for the Chargers, that's what they're doing here.
- 47:36Speaker 1: This game doesn't mean as much to them. Look at
- 47:38Speaker 1: what the Chargers just did the last two weeks. They
- 47:41Speaker 1: just beat each of the last two Super Bowl teams
- 47:45Speaker 1: and each of the last two Super Bowl winners as well,
- 47:47Speaker 1: the last the winners of the last three Super Bowls.
- 47:50Speaker 1: They beat the Eagles in a primetime game where by
- 47:52Speaker 1: the way, the Chargers kind of got lucky in that way. Man.
- 47:56Speaker 1: The Eagles outgained them in the game, and the Eagles
- 47:58Speaker 1: threw that game away. So the Chargers misleading win big
- 48:02Speaker 1: wins still on a Monday night game. And then what
- 48:04Speaker 1: do they do last week? They went into Arrowhead and
- 48:07Speaker 1: they beat the Chiefs. And I know Mahomes went down
- 48:10Speaker 1: in the game, but that was a huge win, man.
- 48:13Speaker 1: That was a season sweep for the Chargers against the Chiefs,
- 48:16Speaker 1: and they eliminated the Chiefs from the playoffs. There's nothing
- 48:20Speaker 1: more satisfying than that. Man, eliminating the team that had
- 48:23Speaker 1: a stranglehold on the division for like five six years
- 48:26Speaker 1: in a row. Monster win for the Chargers, and if
- 48:29Speaker 1: you watched any of that game, it was a huge,
- 48:31Speaker 1: hugely like physical game. I think the Chargers are gonna
- 48:35Speaker 1: be real beat up coming off of that second straight
- 48:37Speaker 1: road game. And they played Dallas and then oh yeah,
- 48:40Speaker 1: by the way, look who the Chargers have.
- 48:42Speaker 2: Remaining on their schedule.
- 48:43Speaker 1: Next week They play Houston, which, by the way, not
- 48:46Speaker 1: only is Houston good and looking for a playoff berth here,
- 48:50Speaker 1: but if you remember, because it was one of my
- 48:52Speaker 1: wins that I gave out on the show last year,
- 48:55Speaker 1: Houston is the team that eliminated the Chargers from the
- 48:58Speaker 1: playoffs last year. So that is playoff revenge for the Chargers.
- 49:03Speaker 1: They lost at Houston, got knocked out of the playoffs
- 49:06Speaker 1: on it and that was one of my plays that
- 49:08Speaker 1: I gave out in the first round of the playoffs
- 49:10Speaker 1: last year. So you know, the Chargers have had this
- 49:13Speaker 1: game circled. Man, whenever you playing the team ended your
- 49:16Speaker 1: season last year, you got that game circle.
- 49:19Speaker 2: So that is massive. And then they play at Denver.
- 49:21Speaker 1: To finish the season, which is another huge game, even
- 49:24Speaker 1: though pretty much you gotta think Denver's got this division
- 49:28Speaker 1: wrapped up at this when the Chargers pretty likely they're
- 49:31Speaker 1: gonna be a wild card, but that Houston game could
- 49:34Speaker 1: mean something for the wildcard too, and then they're gonna
- 49:37Speaker 1: play Denver again in the final week again a huge game.
- 49:40Speaker 1: So yeah, this Chargers team, and in the Chargers they
- 49:43Speaker 1: did beat Denver the first time, but still this is
- 49:46Speaker 1: a This is like the obvious flat.
- 49:47Speaker 2: Spot left for the Chargers.
- 49:49Speaker 1: This is a sandwich spot for sure for Dallas.
- 49:53Speaker 2: They're four to win one at home.
- 49:54Speaker 1: They've been better at home in Jerry world, but as
- 49:58Speaker 1: I mentioned, with the Minnesota handicap, so that Dallas Minnesota
- 50:02Speaker 1: game has kind of given us two plays here this week.
- 50:05Speaker 1: Everybody saw Dallas lose on Sunday night, man, and you
- 50:07Speaker 1: know me, I like to jump on the teams that
- 50:09Speaker 1: look bad in primetime, and Dallas look bad. They lost
- 50:14Speaker 1: as a favorite, and that almost eliminated them from the playoffs.
- 50:18Speaker 1: But they're not technically eliminated yet, so I think Dallas
- 50:22Speaker 1: might be able to play looser now that basically they're
- 50:24Speaker 1: in a situation where they're not actually eliminated.
- 50:27Speaker 2: So it's not actually the dream crusher, but.
- 50:31Speaker 1: They need a lot of help to get into the playoffs,
- 50:33Speaker 1: so I think maybe they can just play with no
- 50:34Speaker 1: pressure on them here.
- 50:36Speaker 2: And it's their final home game of.
- 50:38Speaker 1: The season, so you've got to think they're gonna want
- 50:40Speaker 1: to at least give the fans something. And look who
- 50:42Speaker 1: they have remaining. I know it's two divisional games, but
- 50:45Speaker 1: it's Washington and the Giants. Are they really gonna get
- 50:48Speaker 1: up for those two games? And they beat both of
- 50:50Speaker 1: those teams already this season, so I don't really see
- 50:53Speaker 1: those games being really that important to them.
- 50:55Speaker 2: Man.
- 50:56Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for this one and
- 50:58Speaker 1: they're staying at home as well. You're getting a price
- 51:01Speaker 1: that's basically just picked the winner. Yeah, the public's gonna
- 51:04Speaker 1: be all over the Chargers here, man, but I think
- 51:06Speaker 1: the Cowboys get it done.
- 51:07Speaker 2: I think they win.
- 51:09Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with the Cowboys in that game
- 51:13Speaker 1: minus one and a half.
- 51:13Speaker 2: There you go. It might be a yeah.
- 51:17Speaker 1: I mean they might be juice though, right, you gotta
- 51:20Speaker 1: make sure that it's not juice. The one that I
- 51:21Speaker 1: found was actually reduced juice, believe it or not on Caesars,
- 51:26Speaker 1: So maybe you can find something. Fan Duel in Massachusetts
- 51:28Speaker 1: did not have the one and a half though. D's now,
- 51:31Speaker 1: what's up man, Drake London versus gain Well?
- 51:37Speaker 2: Let me check roe.
- 51:38Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna lead towards gain Well, though, I don't know.
- 51:41Speaker 1: Do we know if Jalen Warren is playing? Is that
- 51:43Speaker 1: his name Warren?
- 51:44Speaker 2: Do we know if he's playing or not for the Steelers?
- 51:47Speaker 1: One problem with playing is Steeler running back though, is
- 51:49Speaker 1: that they're probably gonna be losing the game.
- 51:52Speaker 2: So hold on, let me see. But Drake London is
- 51:54Speaker 2: he Is he playing because he's been hurt as well?
- 51:57Speaker 2: So I don't know.
- 51:57Speaker 1: I kind of hesitate, you know, to jump on a
- 52:01Speaker 1: guy who's coming back from an.
- 52:02Speaker 2: Injury like that. But hold on, let me see.
- 52:04Speaker 1: I'm gonna look right now. I'm gonna look at some
- 52:07Speaker 1: numbers here real quick. I don't know if I want
- 52:09Speaker 1: to give away all my secrets though.
- 52:11Speaker 2: Is this a PPR? By the way, I kind of
- 52:14Speaker 2: assume at this point that it is. But hold on,
- 52:17Speaker 2: let me look.
- 52:20Speaker 1: Let's see, Drake London, we're argument gain Well game. Weell
- 52:28Speaker 1: looks like an okay play, especially if you're talking about
- 52:30Speaker 1: a flex. But let me see, I actually have gain
- 52:32Speaker 1: Well on my team, and I actually have them on
- 52:34Speaker 1: my bench, believe it or not, even though my team
- 52:36Speaker 1: is basically completely fucked. But I just have a lot
- 52:39Speaker 1: of decent running backs on my team. So that's basically
- 52:42Speaker 1: why where the fuck is London? Let me see, I
- 52:48Speaker 1: don't even see London on this sheet. He's got to
- 52:51Speaker 1: be on here somewhere, though. Are we sure London's playing?
- 52:58Speaker 1: I mean, right now, i'd probably say Gain but at
- 53:00Speaker 1: least with game Wow, he's kind of guaranteed more touches.
- 53:03Speaker 1: At the very least he's gonna get involved here because
- 53:06Speaker 1: he's a running back. So I tend to like running
- 53:08Speaker 1: backs a little bit more because they get guaranteed touches. Basically,
- 53:12Speaker 1: Oh no, here's a lot. Actually my mistake. Here's I
- 53:14Speaker 1: would say, play London. Actually, my mistake. London has a
- 53:17Speaker 1: better project projection here, I see him, my mistake.
- 53:21Speaker 2: Yees.
- 53:21Speaker 1: So I would go London in that one, even though
- 53:23Speaker 1: usually I do like to go with the running backs,
- 53:25Speaker 1: but now I would go London in that one. And
- 53:29Speaker 1: speaking of the of the Drake London game final best bet,
- 53:34Speaker 1: I know we're going back to the team. It's been
- 53:35Speaker 1: hurting me the abuser, but we're gonna take the Arizona
- 53:38Speaker 1: Cardinals plus three. You can find three with about minus
- 53:42Speaker 1: I saw it at minus one twelve out there on
- 53:45Speaker 1: the on the plus three, I think you'll probably get
- 53:47Speaker 1: the plus three minus one ten by game time. I
- 53:50Speaker 1: think the public is probably gonna be on the Falcons here,
- 53:52Speaker 1: but we're gonna fae the Falcons. We're gonna take Arizona
- 53:56Speaker 1: in this one. I know Arizona was bad to me
- 53:59Speaker 1: the last two times I gave them out. Last week
- 54:02Speaker 1: especially they got bombed.
- 54:04Speaker 2: But we're still talking.
- 54:05Speaker 1: About a Cardinals team that seven of their losses have
- 54:08Speaker 1: been by.
- 54:08Speaker 2: Four or fewer points.
- 54:10Speaker 1: Man, So I think if the line is two and
- 54:13Speaker 1: a half, the Cardinals also make a good teaser. Teasing
- 54:15Speaker 1: them up to eight and a half total is a
- 54:17Speaker 1: little bit high though at forty eight and a half.
- 54:20Speaker 1: By the way, the Lions, if that game gets a
- 54:24Speaker 1: seven and a half, the Lions teased down to one
- 54:27Speaker 1: and a half, they make a really good teaser leg
- 54:29Speaker 1: as well. And then I would say the Giants also
- 54:33Speaker 1: make a really good one. If you see the two
- 54:35Speaker 1: and a half still out there, once it gets to three,
- 54:37Speaker 1: you can't really effectively tease it with a Stanford Wong anymore.
- 54:41Speaker 2: But the Giants up to the plus eight and a half.
- 54:44Speaker 1: Make a good teaser leg as well. Just throwing that
- 54:47Speaker 1: out there for the teasers, because I do give give
- 54:50Speaker 1: out teasers now on the show real quick. But yes, Arizona,
- 54:54Speaker 1: I believe you're gonna get a three on this if
- 54:56Speaker 1: you don't see it already. Tickets fifty five percent of
- 54:59Speaker 1: the cash on Falcons. But the public is not gonna
- 55:02Speaker 1: be on the Cardinals here, man. And this is a
- 55:04Speaker 1: spot where I think you gotta fade Atlanta in this
- 55:08Speaker 1: one man. And as I said, the Cardinals, most of
- 55:10Speaker 1: their losses have been close, and a couple of the
- 55:12Speaker 1: not close losses have been pretty misleading as well. So
- 55:17Speaker 1: I like Arizona to get this thing done in this
- 55:19Speaker 1: one man finally, And the other Arizona loss that we
- 55:22Speaker 1: had was bullshit, the one against Jacksonville by half a point,
- 55:26Speaker 1: just because we didn't find the three on them. So
- 55:28Speaker 1: that was the other one in Arizona did get us
- 55:30Speaker 1: a win earlier in the season, by the way, if
- 55:32Speaker 1: you remember at the Colts we got we got a
- 55:35Speaker 1: win with Arizona on the cover there. They almost won
- 55:39Speaker 1: that game out right. Now, Atlanta, they're in a horrible spot, dude. Yeah,
- 55:43Speaker 1: they have extra time off, but look at what they
- 55:45Speaker 1: just did. They beat Tampa Bay in that game where
- 55:48Speaker 1: I was talking about how they were down fourteen late
- 55:50Speaker 1: in the game and they had a massive game. Kirk
- 55:52Speaker 1: Cousins basically had like a legacy game, three hundred and
- 55:55Speaker 1: seventy three passing yards. I love to see you because
- 55:57Speaker 1: I like Cousins, but I don't think he's gonna do
- 56:00Speaker 1: it again here man Pitt's had an insane game in
- 56:03Speaker 1: that one as well, monster game for Tampa for a
- 56:07Speaker 1: excuse Atlanta winning at Tampa And again, what do I
- 56:10Speaker 1: always say? What have I been saying when a team
- 56:13Speaker 1: is dead on the season like Atlanta is what are
- 56:16Speaker 1: the games they.
- 56:16Speaker 2: Get up for?
- 56:17Speaker 1: Primetime games and games where they can play division spoiler.
- 56:21Speaker 1: Well both were the case in that game against Tampa
- 56:24Speaker 1: Bay because that was a Thursday night primetime game and
- 56:27Speaker 1: against a divisional team they might be able to spoil.
- 56:30Speaker 1: So that was a huge game for them. Now they
- 56:32Speaker 1: got to turn around and they're playing at Arizona. Not
- 56:35Speaker 1: only is it a second straight road game, but it's
- 56:37Speaker 1: a fourth road game in five weeks, brutal and oh yeah,
- 56:40Speaker 1: what do they have up next? Oh yeah, they play
- 56:42Speaker 1: Monday night against the Rams primetime games. So again, a
- 56:47Speaker 1: team that's dead like Atlanta, that's one of the remaining
- 56:50Speaker 1: games they'll show up for him. Man, So, I think
- 56:53Speaker 1: this is a bad spot, having to go out to Arizona.
- 56:55Speaker 1: I don't see them putting a lot of focus into
- 56:57Speaker 1: this one. Basically, this is a sandwich and for Arizona,
- 57:02Speaker 1: they're coming off that ugly loss to Houston. This is
- 57:04Speaker 1: their final home game of the season. Man, so I
- 57:07Speaker 1: think they will show up for it. Again, a team
- 57:09Speaker 1: that's dead on the season still, I think one of
- 57:12Speaker 1: the other reasons they might show up is last home
- 57:15Speaker 1: game of the season. Try to give your fans something,
- 57:18Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I mean, they've lost so
- 57:19Speaker 1: many games in a row. You know me, I love
- 57:21Speaker 1: playing on these teams that have lost tons of games
- 57:24Speaker 1: in a row. Why not We got two teams this week.
- 57:27Speaker 1: Got to my three plays tomorrow that are on six
- 57:30Speaker 1: plus game losing streaks, Baby, the Cardinals and the Giants.
- 57:33Speaker 2: Let's go. I told you it was ugly, but that's
- 57:36Speaker 2: the play. Those are the plays there. Man, that's gonna
- 57:40Speaker 2: do it.
- 57:41Speaker 1: I appreciate it, guys, thanks for hanging out once again.
- 57:44Speaker 1: The best bets one more time. For tomorrow, we're gonna
- 57:47Speaker 1: be on the New York Giants plus. I would say
- 57:52Speaker 1: you're gonna find a three on it by tomorrow. I'm
- 57:54Speaker 1: almost positive, so New York Giants plus three. I would
- 57:57Speaker 1: still do it at two and a half, but obviously
- 58:00Speaker 1: wait to get that best number. I'm pretty sure you'll
- 58:03Speaker 1: get it Dallas minus the one and a half or
- 58:05Speaker 1: minus two or money line.
- 58:08Speaker 2: We're not gonna get screwed on the one.
- 58:09Speaker 1: And a half again this time. Come on, man, like
- 58:12Speaker 1: with a seattle. It's not gonna happen again. I am pissed.
- 58:15Speaker 1: I should have just gone money line there, but whatever,
- 58:18Speaker 1: and then we're gonna be on Arizona plus three. You
- 58:20Speaker 1: can already get that one at plus three, paying slightly
- 58:23Speaker 1: more for it, but I think paying up to minus
- 58:25Speaker 1: one fifteen to get it is fine.
- 58:27Speaker 2: But you don't have to do it.
- 58:28Speaker 1: I would wait still because I think you'll get the
- 58:30Speaker 1: three at minus one ten at some point, probably if
- 58:34Speaker 1: not then grabbing it up upwards of about minus one fifteen.
- 58:37Speaker 2: I think you'll find it. Those are the three plays.
- 58:41Speaker 2: Thank you, sir.
- 58:42Speaker 1: Let's continue. We've had a good NFL season, so let's
- 58:44Speaker 1: continue doing it. College basketball has been unbelievably good, dude,
- 58:49Speaker 1: I needed after March was so bad.
- 58:53Speaker 2: This feels like two years ago. There was like a
- 58:56Speaker 2: January to February.
- 58:57Speaker 1: Who I was like getting every single college back play, right,
- 59:01Speaker 1: I'm like, holy fuck, Like this feels like that right now.
- 59:04Speaker 1: I don't want to jinx it, but we're way up
- 59:06Speaker 1: on college basketball right now, and of course there is
- 59:09Speaker 1: the potential for it to go wrong because it's very
- 59:11Speaker 1: high volume.
- 59:12Speaker 2: But even though I'm very.
- 59:14Speaker 1: Selective with it, it's just there are so many games
- 59:16Speaker 1: and I handicap them all. So I find that many spots,
- 59:20Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Let's do it. I'll be
- 59:22Speaker 1: back in the morning. There'll be some college basketball, I assume,
- 59:25Speaker 1: and some NHL and NBA, but probably a small board tomorrow.
- 59:29Speaker 2: So obviously the focus is mostly the NFL. I'll be back.
- 59:32Speaker 1: We're gonna kick off the uh Christmas week. Baby, It's
- 59:37Speaker 1: Christmas week, Holy crap, So save travels everybody. If people
- 59:41Speaker 1: are starting to travel and whatever.
- 59:44Speaker 2: I'll be back.
- 59:44Speaker 1: I'm still gonna be doing the show I think every morning,
- 59:46Speaker 1: because my festivities are mostly gonna be things at night.
- 59:50Speaker 1: So all right, that's gonna do it. I'll be back
- 59:54Speaker 1: on the morning. Learn to tone on Twitter. I got
- 59:57Speaker 1: subscriptions dow in there. I haven't put on any content yet,
- 59:59Speaker 1: but I'm going learn a toad on Instagram where I
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: have the short form betting stuff obviously, like subscribe, give
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: me replies here, boost this channel, man, tell everybody how
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: hot I am both appearance wise and with my play is.
- 1:00:17Speaker 2: Let's boost this thing.
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: I'm on an audio as well. Spotify, Apple, give me
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: a good review over there. The listens helped me because
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: I have the ads on there. I know you got
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: to listen to the ads, but you can help me
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: out by just letting it play in the background.
- 1:00:30Speaker 2: Man, So yeah, just you can do that.
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: And then we got covered in you because my ukulele
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: channel on YouTube.
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: You can check that out. You covers. We're still doing them.
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: Some of them might be behind the subscription wall on
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: Twitter now though, if you want them on the Twitter feed,
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: I'll figure out what I'm gonna do as far as
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: putting them on YouTube. Whatever I want to get, Like,
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: I have a backlog like, I've all my like old
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: uke covers from the last like three four years. They're
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: all year on the phone, man, so I like, I
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: want there. I'm told disorganized and a lot of them
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: are deleted from Twitter because I had auto delete on
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: for a long time. So I gotta figure out what
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: I want to do with those. I gotta organize them somehow.
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: So there is that, and then Patreon dot com slash
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: learn to and you can get some bonus yuke stuff.
- 1:01:16Speaker 2: There a Spotify feed and requests.
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: I know, Charles, I gotta I gotta look against CV
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: requests at any Christmas ones or whatever. I'm gonna try
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: to get to the other ones that you gave me,
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: but it'll be a bit.
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: And then I'm gonna try to do them. And then
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: loser Cast.
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: Check out loser Cast, the rotating comedy panel show or
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: I'm on at least on the Tuesday versions of it.
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: Not this week though this week we might skip the show,
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: but I don't think I could do it on Tuesday anyway,
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: But go check that out.
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that's it for now.
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: And then the Giants g spot podcast, I'll be talking
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: to them, will figure it out. I mean We're getting
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: into the holidays now, so I don't know what we
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: want to do with it.
- 1:01:57Speaker 2: But I have a.
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: Play on the Giants this week, oh man, and it's
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: been sparing with those.
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: I think.
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: The only other time I gave out the playing the Giants,
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: I think was the Dark Debut right where they beat
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: the Chargers that oh no, I had against the Packers,
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: I had them as well, and they covered because I
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: found the hook on that one. They covered that one
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: as well. So hopefully the Giants continue to be good
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: to us, all right, thank you.
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: No Christmas ones. Time is limited though, man, and I'm gonna.
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: Be doing Christmas stuff with families, so I don't have
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: that much time. I might have to do it after Christmas,
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: but we'll figure something.
- 1:02:32Speaker 2: Out that's gonna do it. Thanks guys, I'll be back tomorrow.
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: Peace.