Latest / Neil McCoy-Ward Podcast / 🚨 THE PERFECT STORM! We’ve Never Seen It This Bad…

Transcript

🚨 THE PERFECT STORM! We’ve Never Seen It This Bad… · Neil McCoy-Ward Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, well let's begin with a warning today then, and we'll go through all of the data.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: JP Morgan has come out with a pretty strong report,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: warning of a possible,
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: they use the word possible, global food supply crisis which will begin next year.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I've been going over all of the data and running the numbers on this today,
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: and I I think they're pretty accurate actually.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: There's a couple of things that even I had missed.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: And it's quite interesting.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: So we've covered a lot of the stuff on the channel around the war.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: So the Iran war, we've talked about the changes in weather.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: We have talked about storage capability, water resources.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: But there's a couple of other things that are taking place all at the same time.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: Which is sort of creating this perfect storm which has never really occurred in history before.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously we know about the El Nino which is building up which is going
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: to be pretty severe this year.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: We've got some data on that as well.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: But the onset of the war and the continuation of
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: the Iran war is really pushing everything to the limit.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing they even didn't put in this report is actually what's happening in Russia.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: So you think of the destruction that's being done to Russian energy infrastructure,
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: fertilizer plants, obviously fertilizing needs natural gas.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of the Before it was created in Europe,
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of the natural gas was used to create fertilizer.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: That sort of stopped back in sort of 2022 sort of period.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of the,
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: especially in the Netherlands,
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of the producers,
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: they just stopped and they ended up selling their gas,
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: natural gas contracts to greenhouses and other places like that.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: So we know there's been a crunch of this and there is no...
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: We think about how we have a global oil reserves and how the energy agency manages that.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: And we talked about that recently,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: how already 40% of that has been used just in this short period.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And they can't refill the reserves because it's been destroyed.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: So much of it has been destroyed.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we've got this bottleneck.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got all of this going on at the same time as a perfect storm.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: So their prediction then is that Obviously, shortages.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: There's going to be mass shortages globally.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: I agree with that.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: But before anyone panics and runs out to the supermarket to stock up,
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: remember what I said before.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of these headlines don't take into account the...
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: And the fact that in the West, we are wealthier than, say, some of the developing nations.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what you've got to always bear in mind.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: So in the West, you will always have food available.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's just that it will cost more.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't mean you're not going to have food on the shelves
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: but it will cost more and that means that other countries you're probably going
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: to see famine and some other real tragedies in some of the other countries.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't see any way to avoid it because We don't have,
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: you think of certain countries,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: China's a good example,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: massive stores of grains and food for catastrophes like this.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously under Mao, they learned a hard lesson.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a lot of lessons there.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: But the UK, for example, doesn't have that.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of the European nations don't have these massive reserves.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about the USDA and their data and how they're preparing and what Trump has done.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's brokered a We'll talk about that in a moment.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: But one of the forecasts then is for the global food inflation rate to rise from,
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: it's just under 3% at the moment,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: and that's looking to go to roughly 6% as we go into 2027.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: It will be much higher, it'll be 20% or more in some of the developing nations.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: So this is going to hit really, really hard.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: But there's also weakening crop yields anyway.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Which is really hitting capacity.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: You've seen what's happened with UK farming this year.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: The yields are down massively because of the hot weather and lack of rainfall.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: So you think about how important fertilizer is to farmers as well as good weather and rainfall.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's one of the things that farmers need for a good yield
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: and fertilizers have just exploded in price and this is just the beginning.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's not the end of the prices.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: There's going to be higher prices in fertilizer.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: One of the things they said in the report is that India,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: despite having stores, they're going through the stores really quickly.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: India, Indonesia and Brazil are going to be very,
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: very heavily affected by this, according to the JP Morgan report.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: And there's so many of these articles.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Here's one.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: J.P. Morgan says, And we'll go through some of these.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you next time.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Learn a huge amount of things.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: It comes with an email series as well.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: What strategies are going to work in this chaotic period as we move forward?
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: The five pillars that protect your money and actually will grow it in any economy.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: There's a step-by-step action.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: The email sequence around it is absolutely enormous,
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: and I mean enormous, like this jug here, my water jug.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, the emails you'll get with it as well.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: You can go in and drop out as often as you want.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: There's about 50 emails that I've written on all different topics,
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: financial, everything from gold to passive income, dividend investing.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: You don't have to pay anything for it.
• 6:45
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• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, there's courses and things as well.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to take up any courses, you can do during the email series.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: So download that in the description.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: But The USDA data is actually showing mixed signals on how prepared the US is
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: for this major event that's coming.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: So one thing is that the US is pretty self-sufficient with food.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: People always The US is a net exporter of a lot of food,
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: yes they import some food but it's cheaper to import it and grow it themselves.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: If we look at the data that's come out then,
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: this is the Department of Agriculture's August World Supply and Demand Estimates.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: They showed global wheat ending stocks for 2026 into 2027 at 273 million tons.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: So that's up on July.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Up another... Actually, yeah, so the stocks...
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so it's up on July.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: So it's up from 717 million bushels previously.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: So the US is looking pretty strong.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: They've missed out a load of the data.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's why I'm sort of pausing on it.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: But China has actually moved to support the farmers now.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought this was interesting because I was reading, where is it?
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: I was reading about the support that the government has come out with.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: So the Prime Minister,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Andy Burnham,
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: announced he's giving British farmers 65 million pounds of support
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: to help tackle this massive crisis that's coming.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing I would say to put this into context,
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: So he's giving the British farmers £65 million to help them with this coming crisis.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: But he's giving Pakistan £130 million.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think it should be the other way around.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Pakistan should be paying the UK that money at the moment for all the issues
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: that are being caused from the, well, I think we all know.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: But if we look at the geopolitical tensions from the choke point in Hamus at
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: the moment,
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Since all this actually started,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: potash and urea exports, and they're coming from Qatar, Iran, etc.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: They make up roughly 9.3% of all potash.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: 9.3% and 8.4% of global urea exports.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: So that was 2025.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: This year, it will be down so, so heavily.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: I can see the chat's going crazy today.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm glad so many people are online.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for being online.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: So we also have NOAA, which is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: They have put the odds now to 69% of a historic event, weather event, the worst in history.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: This is worse than anything else that's ever happened.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: They've put it at 69% now to occur between October through December of this year.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: They've also said major grain producing regions in South Asia and Southeast Asia
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: and Europe are going to be hit incredibly hard.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: President Trump has actually brokered a trade agreement with China, they say in secret.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it really was in secret.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: I think a lot of people knew about it.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: It was on the news, but said he did it in secret to purchase $17 billion of money.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: Agricultural imports from China and to sell exports to China.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: So it looks as though the US is protected well from this.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: But it's bizarre that you're not hearing this on a lot of media outlets.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: You know, the UK will hold a COBRA emergency meeting and the outcome is ban barbecues, baffling.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: But that was the outcome.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: There was nothing about, okay, let's get all the grain stocks.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start looking at how we're going to deal with this crisis before it hits.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: None of that.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: No, they're just going to ban barbecues.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, as if you can't make it any worse,
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'll still be having my barbecues pretty much three times a week,
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: or with my South African friends,
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: as they call it, a braai, about three times a week.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: So there we go.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, I will show you briefly.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: We don't need to go through all of these reports because there's a couple
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: of JP Morgan reports here.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get on to this one.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: So this was sizing fertilizer types.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think the police are coming for me right now with the sirens.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: Sizing fertilizer types and consumption by crop here.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see global nitrogen fertilizer used by crop.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: And we can also see where it all comes from.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's a very good and detailed report if you want to go through any of these.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: You can see the title here, Climate Intuition, etc.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of these reports.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: I found them very useful just reading through them.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very useful indeed.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Middle East is a major exporter of urea.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see, we just talked about Iran and Qatar there.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, look at that, 9.3%.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Iran, 8.4%.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, look how many of these countries are affected right now.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you think Western Europe with their 2.5% or Central and Eastern Europe
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: at one point is going to save us.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is going to be...
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: This is going to be pretty severe.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: And we had this out of Reuters, which was about two weeks ago, actually.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: The world faces fresh food price surge.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: The FAO warns.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: So we had this come out.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm just surprised we're not seeing more of all of this.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: The world is on the verge of another bountiful.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: And that was the chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: They said this calm is likely to be temporary as higher crude prices,
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: the loss of fertilizer and the shortage of diesel in some parts of the world
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: in extreme weather are feeding through to costs and will show up
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: in consumer prices even with a delay.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's another key point that...
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: What they're not really talking about enough is that, yeah,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: the oil is a big problem,
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: and it's going to be an even bigger problem,
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: but the bigger problem is the refinery capabilities.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I think a lot of the outlets are missing.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: Even when the energy comes back online, it's the refineries.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: They've all been blown up.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_00: And you've seen all these mystery explosions.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: There was another mystery explosion on Friday.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: There was another mystery explosion on Friday.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: They keep calling them all mysteries.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing annoys me more when you have an expert comes out and they're asked,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: what caused the explosion?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: What was it that caused this huge fire?
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: And they say, we're investigating it, but it's currently a mystery.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: It drives me mad.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: You're the expert.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: Get off and give it to somebody else who can actually figure this out if you can't.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you remember the Heathrow fire?
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you remember the Heathrow Airport fire.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: They said it was about four months later.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: I looked it up because everyone had forgotten about it.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: And they said it's a mystery.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Investigators have put it down to it being a mystery.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Right, sure, sure it was.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it drives me mad, all of this stuff, that they can't figure stuff out.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, they said that the cost has seen accelerating by year end into next year.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: So again,
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: we've got a pretty accurate timeline when we put all of
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: the different organizations together.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: So the end of this year,
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: 2026, into next year is when we're going to We're going to see a lot of this hit.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: The transmission from the commodity to the final food price,
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: that's your oil to your refined products,
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: so your diesel, etc.,
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: into the supply chain,
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: into the food price, that's what They're referring to here is three to six months.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: So we're already going to start to see a little bit of it, but it will be later in the year.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Brent, because it's used for pumping,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: packaging,
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: processing and transport and natural gas because it's used for fertilizers.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: These are all going to hit.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yet we talked about Russia and Ukraine.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: I think we just saw another massive explosion in Russia that's just taken place as well.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: They're going after a lot of the Wild berries factories as well,
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: distribution centers, which is an interesting one.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: So the Ukrainian drones are just blowing up all the,
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: think of wild berries like Amazon for the West.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: So wild berries is the Amazon equivalent.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: So these huge distribution centers,
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: again, the biggest one of all the centers was just blown up, $1.5 billion in losses.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: So they're hitting pretty much everything now.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: All sorts of civilian infrastructure as well.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: It's getting out of control as if it wasn't already the war.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, it's bizarre what's going on.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: So even in the US,
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: it says here,
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: which is self-sufficient for most key inputs,
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: without federal assistance,
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: farmers growing nine principal crops may lose $32 billion.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's from the American Farm Bureau Federation.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: They've just announced that, 32 billion.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to hit everybody all at the same time.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: Global wheat and corn planting was already cut in the first three months of the Iran war.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: And some US producers have shifted to soybeans because they require lower fertilizer inputs.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, they're talking about the El Nino weather as well, about to hit.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: So this is, I mean, it's pretty serious what's happening.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: We got, yeah, I wanted to bring this up as well.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: I thought this was quite interesting, that you'd find interesting.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: You don't need to see it on screen.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: I can just read it out.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: Between 1982 and 1983,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: a very strong El Niño,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: the official NOAA basically designated for what the media might label as super,
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: mega or monster, created torrential rainfall.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: And basically destroyed the southwest,
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: even causing reservoirs along the Colorado River to overflow,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: which they say seems unimaginable in the drought-stricken area today.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: In 1997,
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: another very strong El Nino directly caused 23,000 deaths by causing floods,
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: droughts, and wildfires around the world.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: But way back in 1877,
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: so we're really going back now,
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: what's that,
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: 150 years,
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: It perfectly aligned with other climate phenomena,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: including a record-strong Indian Ocean dipole.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to have to look up this word, D-I-P-O-L-E.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to look that up straight after.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: To cause the deaths of an estimated 50 million people.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: So this was basically the worst they've ever recorded.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: But this is where it gets interesting.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: They're now saying that there's a chance of 81%,
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: according to NOAA, between October and December, which is different.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: So 81% they're forecasting.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the other forecast from JP Morgan was 69%.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was 69%.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to go by Noah.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: So 81% that this could be the worst ever recorded because
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: of everything coming together at the same time,
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: including the war, including the drought and the heat, etc.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: So this could be absolutely...
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: I can't even imagine how bad this one could be.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, honestly.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: And...
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about this article in a second.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: But another interesting one is what's taking place in the Netherlands.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if we didn't have X,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: for example,
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: and some other socials, I don't think people would even know what's taking place.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: That there is mass protests in the Netherlands.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: We also have, here's another one, in the Netherlands right now.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: This is taking place.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: The farmers are yet again fighting for their future.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: People say, I didn't even...
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: So this was the
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: UK forecast of a recession.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: So Britain's economy is likely to shrink in 2027 due to the Strait of Hormuz staying closed.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: This is from EY.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of their forecasts.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: So they don't think we're really going to see much growth at all in
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: the UK this year, but they say they're going to stave off a recession.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: I don't I think the only way the UK will hold off a recession is
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: if they keep doing what they're doing,
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: but it's going to cause a massive issue with the bond market.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: And that's more borrowing, more spending, etc.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you can keep doing it because that's what governments do.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_00: You've got two options.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: Keep borrowing, keep spending, or you tighten your belt, right?
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: And you're fiscally responsible.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: But
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: Governments never do it.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: So this is what they're going to do.
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_00: Keep spending and you get more inflation, more inflation.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's how Germany ended up with the Deutsche Mark and the Renten Mark
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: and they had hyperinflation.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of other causes to that.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: But this is what happens.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: You always see hyperinflation over fiscal responsibility.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that's probably the path they'll go to is more printing.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: But one thing they said in their report,
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: if the Strait of Hamuz opens in the coming months,
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: then the downturn won't be as severe.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: But if it stays closed this year, then it's going to be severe, is what they said.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: I would agree with that.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: They've got...
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: Inflation at 6.4% at the end of the year, which is high.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: But remember, if you own assets, if you own any assets, high inflation is good for you.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's only bad if you don't own any assets at all.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: For example, if you own a home, if you have a mortgage on that home.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: Remember that I bought my property when...
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: The inflation rate was 11%.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was about 10.4% when I bought my property.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I got a mortgage before that because I secured it in before that, something like 2.9%.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have assets,
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: it's positive for you because the inflation destroys the capital that you owe
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: and it pushes up asset prices.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: But if you don't own assets, it's bad.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't like inflation.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: And you might say, why if you own assets?
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's positive for me, but it's bad for people that don't own assets.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: And it creates massive wealth inequality, which is why I don't like inflation.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's a terrible thing.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: And it's created in one place and one place only in most cases.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that's with the government and the central bank with the actions they take
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: to create more currency.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not looking positive at all.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: There's pretty much no positive forecast at the minute.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: There really isn't much good news, I'm afraid to say.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: Everything is very negative with the outlooks.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: But remember,
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: when we go into periods like this,
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: as I've said for years,
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: ever since 2020 when I started this channel,
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: you've just got to prepare and then you can play the other side as soon
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: as you know what the governments are going to do.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: You can do the opposite of that so that you can actually take advantage of it.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: And if you don't want to take advantage of it, at least protect yourself.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the main thing.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely download that free guide as well.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_00: Protect yourself, protect your assets.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: And if nothing else,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: at least it's something interesting to talk about at a party
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: when you don't know what to say to people.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: So thanks so much for being online today.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: I really appreciate all of you.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for being subscribers here.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: Take care.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: God bless.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you on the next live stream this week.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: Bye for now.