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Trump Wins 2024 Presidential Election · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: Falls when you're live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker
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  Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Podcast. Policy changes. A lot of folks are
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  Speaker 2: highlighting the financial services industry to benefit from a lot
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  Speaker 2: of policy changes. The absolute author on all of the
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  Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence work on this is Nathan Dean, Senior policy
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  Speaker 2: ANALYSTO Bloomberg Intelligence. Nathan, I know you guys have gamed
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  Speaker 2: this out. You've kind of looked at financial industry some
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  Speaker 2: of the regulations that are that it's dealing with now
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  Speaker 2: and that are still kind of on the table. What
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  Speaker 2: do you think you're with what we're seeing here with
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  Speaker 2: the elections.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, you know, with the fal services industry, it
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  Speaker 3: all came down to this rule called the Basel three endgame.
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  Speaker 3: You know, as outlined by the FED. You're talking about
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  Speaker 3: a nine percent increase for the GESIPS, the Bank America
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  Speaker 3: JP Morgan's of you will about three to four percent
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  Speaker 3: in terms of the regional banks. Now, with President Trump
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  Speaker 3: winning the Office of the Control of the Currency is
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  Speaker 3: likely going to flip on day one of next year.
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  Speaker 3: So this rule is effectively indefinitely delayed. You know this,
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  Speaker 3: you would need to fed the OCC and the FDIC
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  Speaker 3: to move forward. Now we think at thirty percent chance
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  Speaker 3: of it being finalized by twenty twenty six. The reason
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  Speaker 3: why we're not down to zero is because there is
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  Speaker 3: potential out there that a Republican led regulator may try
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  Speaker 3: and move forth with it, but the idea is going
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  Speaker 3: to be completely different and they're going to essentially start
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  Speaker 3: from scratch. So if you're talking about capital requirements on
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  Speaker 3: a global scale, remember the European banks have already implemented
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  Speaker 3: their version of this. There could be some questions here
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  Speaker 3: on if the Americans aren't going to do this, why
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  Speaker 3: should the Europeans on the same side. So certainly a
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  Speaker 3: lot to play here in terms of the you know,
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  Speaker 3: deregulatory efforts amongst the investment banks.
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  Speaker 4: Nathan Dean, you are the consummate Washington insider. When I
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  Speaker 4: need to get my IF's answered about what's happening in Washington,
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  Speaker 4: I call you so I have a question here. What
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  Speaker 4: name should I be looking at more closely than others?
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  Speaker 4: Bill Lackman, Elon Musk's got Bess and Howard Lucknet. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: talk to us about what the potential for a Trump
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  Speaker 4: cabinet may very well look like.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: So you know, obviously the big question is you going
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  Speaker 3: to get the Wall Street President Trump? Or are you
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  Speaker 3: going to get a populist President Trump? And that's the
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  Speaker 3: question that I don't think anybody really has an answer
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  Speaker 3: to because you know, for example, at the SEC, you
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  Speaker 3: know you have Commissioner Hester Purse, who I think would
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  Speaker 3: be a very popular SEC chair coming from more of
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  Speaker 3: the conservative wing the populist side of the party. But
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  Speaker 3: then there's also going to be folks like former J. Clayton.
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  Speaker 3: You know, obviously his name's been in there for a Treasury,
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  Speaker 3: but you know, somebody like a disciple, if you will,
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  Speaker 3: a commissioner or chairman Clayton could be also a name
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  Speaker 3: at the SEC. So the question that we have, and
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  Speaker 3: we should find out about this more over the next
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  Speaker 3: few weeks, is are you going to get the populist Trump?
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  Speaker 3: Are the Wall Street Trump, and I think you're probably
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  Speaker 3: going to get a combination of the both, where if
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  Speaker 3: President Trump cares about your issue in terms of he
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  Speaker 3: specifically wants to be involved, you'll get a populist Trump.
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  Speaker 3: If it's something where he's happy to delegate to other
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  Speaker 3: folks in Washington, then I think you may get a
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  Speaker 3: Wall Street Trump.
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  Speaker 4: Only think it took a long time for Trump to
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  Speaker 4: pick his cabinet and his players back the first time around.
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  Speaker 4: Apparently he's much more prepared this time. Talk to us
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  Speaker 4: about timing around some of those selections. When can we appear,
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  Speaker 4: When can we expect to hear something there?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think you're gonna hear it, probably before,
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  Speaker 3: probably within the next few weeks. I mean, to your point,
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  Speaker 3: you know they've been talking about this for some time.
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  Speaker 3: But I would also note that the Republicans have somewhere
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  Speaker 3: between fifty two potentially as much as fifty six seats
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  Speaker 3: in the Senate, and as a result, the Republican Senate
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  Speaker 3: is going to be able to confirm a lot of
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  Speaker 3: President Trump's appointees on a much quicker basis than if
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  Speaker 3: you were to have a Democrat controlled Senate or even
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  Speaker 3: a fifty or fifty one. Now why do we care
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  Speaker 3: about this, Well, because the faster that those regulatory leaders
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  Speaker 3: come in place, the faster they can start these deregulatory efforts.
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  Speaker 3: You know, a regulatory leader, for the most part, can't
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  Speaker 3: just come in and say, right, this regulation, We're going
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  Speaker 3: to just completely roll it back on day one. It's
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  Speaker 3: gonna take nine months, twelve months, if not even two
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  Speaker 3: years to move forth on that effort. So the quicker
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  Speaker 3: those regulatory leaders come in place, the quicker the de
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  Speaker 3: regulatory effort can take place.
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  Speaker 2: Red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal. Harris to deliver remarks
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  Speaker 2: at Howard University at four pm Eastern time, so we
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  Speaker 2: will have more reporting on that. Nathan is Brice president elect?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, is President elect Trump is see had Lamed
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  Speaker 2: Duck president? Is that a fair way to look at it? Now?
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  Speaker 3: So generally, and I say this generally, in the second
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  Speaker 3: term of a presidential term, if you will think President
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  Speaker 3: Obama or President George W. Bush, you usually have about
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  Speaker 3: eighteen months to expend your political capital. First one hundred
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  Speaker 3: days of the presidency is critical. But as soon as
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  Speaker 3: Congress begins to think about their midterm elections, and then
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  Speaker 3: as the result when they come back, you know, why
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  Speaker 3: should they stick their necks out for the president who's
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  Speaker 3: going to be gone. So what do presidents tend to do.
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  Speaker 3: They tend to go internationally, and they tend to travel
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  Speaker 3: because the power of the presidency it's more powerful there. So,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we do think President Trump is going to
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  Speaker 3: be spending a lot of time abroad Ukraine, Middle East,
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  Speaker 3: for example. There's a lot of stuff that he can
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  Speaker 3: do there. But I wouldn't call him a lame duck
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  Speaker 3: just yet, because again, the power of the presidency is
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  Speaker 3: more powerful there.
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  Speaker 4: Nathan, it'sok till ten thirty two am Eastern Time this
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  Speaker 4: morning for China's Mystery of Foreign Affairs To congratulate President
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  Speaker 4: elect Donald Trump. You know that China tariffs are coming.
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  Speaker 4: You're betting man, what kind of tariff regime do you
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  Speaker 4: think we're entering into. Is it going to be that
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  Speaker 4: ten percent broad? Is it going to be sixty percent
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  Speaker 4: on China? What are you hearing?
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  Speaker 3: So this is where I think the process of tariff
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  Speaker 3: is key. Now, remember, let's just say January twentieth, President
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  Speaker 3: comes in. You see a red line over the terminal.
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  Speaker 3: You say, President Trump signs an executive order saying tariffs
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  Speaker 3: are coming. In the language of that executive order, however,
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  Speaker 3: I think you'll see language that says the tariff is
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  Speaker 3: not coming for two hundred and seventy days or three
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  Speaker 3: hundred and sixty five days. Why, because tariffs are negotiation tools.
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  Speaker 3: President Trump doesn't know what the reciprocal tariff on China
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  Speaker 3: from China would be, and President Trump wants to use
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  Speaker 3: this as a negotiation. So I think there's going to
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  Speaker 3: be language in there allowing flexibility, allowing President Trump to
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  Speaker 3: come back and say, eh, maybe not sixty percent, maybe
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  Speaker 3: we'll go to ten percent because gave us a win
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  Speaker 3: or something like that. So what we're saying is watch
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  Speaker 3: out for that headline risk in the first or second
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  Speaker 3: quarter of next year. But then you're gonna get probably
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  Speaker 3: six months to actually truly understand what that tariff will
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  Speaker 3: look like before it goes into fruition.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Nathan, as always, thank you very much for
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  Speaker 2: your analysis. Nathan Dean see your policy on US at
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  Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. You find all of Nathan's research at Big
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  Speaker 2: on the Terminal. He really boils down some of this
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  Speaker 2: very difficult policy minutia into something that like real people
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  Speaker 2: can you know that real people can understand and use.
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  Speaker 2: Live here in our Bloomberg and Actor Brokers studio, streaming
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  Speaker 2: live on YouTube as well. All Right, we've got a
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  Speaker 2: Republican in the White House, got a Republican Senate in
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  Speaker 2: the houses yet to be determined. What does it mean
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  Speaker 2: for policy? Our next guest has got some thoughts here.
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  Speaker 2: Ed Mills, managing director in Washington, Policy analysts for Raymond
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  Speaker 2: James ed, Okay, it's kind of a red wave. The
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  Speaker 2: House is still to be determined. Now, what what policies
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  Speaker 2: should we expect from a second Trump administration?
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  Speaker 5: So I think one of the questions we've been answering
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  Speaker 5: for folks here at Raymond James is what is different
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  Speaker 5: this year from twenty sixteen? So, first and foremost, Trump
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  Speaker 5: did not expect to win a twenty sixteen and didn't
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  Speaker 5: have a transition Cheam, that's not true.
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  Speaker 6: This time.
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  Speaker 5: He's going to have a lot more personnel to start off,
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  Speaker 5: a playbook that they've been developing to implement, and so
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  Speaker 5: I do anticipate a lot of robust policies to start
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  Speaker 5: off twenty twenty five. That's on taxes, on tariffs, on trade,
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  Speaker 5: on immigration. Now, to get taxes done, you probably need
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  Speaker 5: the House of Representatives. As we're speaking right now, it's
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  Speaker 5: starting to inch towards that complete sweep, and Republicans are
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  Speaker 5: slightly better positioned to have a majority in the House
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  Speaker 5: than Democrats. But there's a big difference between having a
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  Speaker 5: majority and being able to govern ed mills.
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  Speaker 4: I'm looking at the smp OR up two percent on
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  Speaker 4: the day, led by the financial sector, the banks four
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  Speaker 4: point seven percent on the day. We are up. Talk
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  Speaker 4: us about financial regulation under a Trump administration, I mean,
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  Speaker 4: is bar going to step down? Who's going to replace
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  Speaker 4: Powell at the FED? I mean, who's going to be
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  Speaker 4: controlling the Fed?
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  Speaker 1: Here?
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  Speaker 4: I mean, we know deregulation is good for the banking sector.
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  Speaker 4: What are your thoughts there?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, Damian, you mentioned the two people that probably are
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  Speaker 5: the only ones that stay with a Trump victory. Here,
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  Speaker 5: every single federal financial regulator will lose his or her job.
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  Speaker 5: This is the largest transition in US history. This has
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  Speaker 5: become some court cases in the last couple of administrations
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  Speaker 5: because of precedent. But we've been in what I've described
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  Speaker 5: as a regulatory supersite. We've talked about higher capital standards
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  Speaker 5: for big banks following the bank crisis last year and
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  Speaker 5: the implementation of what's known as Basil three capital standards.
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  Speaker 5: The regulators came out with new restrictive merger guidance in September.
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  Speaker 5: Throw all of that out the window with the Trump victory,
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  Speaker 5: and so that's what financials are reacting to. Not only
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  Speaker 5: are their capital standards not going to get higher, we
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  Speaker 5: could see significant regulatory relief because there is a deregulatory bent,
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  Speaker 5: and we're probably likely to see a considerable amount of
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  Speaker 5: consolidation in the bank space, which has been almost non existent,
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  Speaker 5: lower than it was during the financial crisis. So the
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  Speaker 5: financials are being viewed as a clear winner this morning.
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  Speaker 4: Well, Paul and I are thinking about allocating the merger arbitrage.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, talk to us a little bit about anti
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  Speaker 4: trust regulation here in the US. I mean, can we
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  Speaker 4: expect that to lighten up under Trump administration.
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  Speaker 5: This is where it gets a little bit more interesting.
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  Speaker 5: First and foremost, at the anti trust regulators. I look
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  Speaker 5: at the FTC and Cheerly con Well. Her term's actually
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  Speaker 5: already expired, but she gets to stay on as cheer
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  Speaker 5: or as a commissioner in a democratic majority until the
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  Speaker 5: president appoints in the Senate confirms her replacement. We'll be
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  Speaker 5: watching to see if she steps down and goes on
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  Speaker 5: to a different job. But in that case, it's still
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  Speaker 5: only a two to two tie. So Donald Trump is
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  Speaker 5: going to have to nominate someone to replace her and
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  Speaker 5: elevate maybe one of the existing FTC commissioners to Cheer
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  Speaker 5: before we have that change. At the Department of Justice
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  Speaker 5: Anti Trust Division, Jonathan Canter will be gone on January
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  Speaker 5: twentieth at twelve oh one. How long does it take
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  Speaker 5: for Trump to make that change. That's something that we'll
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  Speaker 5: be watching. Who is his attorney general, That's something that
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  Speaker 5: we need to watch. That said, a lot of anti
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  Speaker 5: trust activities started when Donald Trump was president. The lawsuit
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  Speaker 5: against Google that we've been talking about in recent weeks,
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  Speaker 5: that's finally gotten to the point where we might see
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  Speaker 5: some action by the court to implement remedies that was
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  Speaker 5: stuttered under Donald Trump. So populism is driving anti trust.
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  Speaker 5: Populism drove Donald Trump. We will see some changes, but
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  Speaker 5: it's not as clear cut of a change as we
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  Speaker 5: discussed with financials.
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  Speaker 4: And markets have been looking to, for example, comments by
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  Speaker 4: Scott Besson x Soros of increasing domestic oil supplied by
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  Speaker 4: three million oil equivalent barrels per day. People are looking
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  Speaker 4: at Elon Musk. I mean, is Who's going to be
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  Speaker 4: in Trump's cabinet here? I mean, is Scott Bessont really
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  Speaker 4: a candidate for US Treasury Secretary? Is Elon Musk going
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  Speaker 4: to be running the Department of Transportation? I mean, talk
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  Speaker 4: to us a little bit about what we can expect
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  Speaker 4: in the weeks ahead on Trumps cabinet.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah. So when I look at one of the bigger
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  Speaker 5: surprises of the election results was the size of the
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  Speaker 5: victory for Republicans in the Senate, and the more that
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  Speaker 5: Republicans pick up those seats, it could be a fifty
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  Speaker 5: five seat majority when all is said and done from Republicans.
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  Speaker 5: The higher that is, the more Trump is going to
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  Speaker 5: be able to get anyone that he wants. And we
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  Speaker 5: wouldn't have to worry about one or two senators denying
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  Speaker 5: that nomination. Scott Bessen absolutely could be Treasury Secretary. There's
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  Speaker 5: others leading that role. I'm a little bit more skeptical
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  Speaker 5: as it comes to Elon Musk. To be a confirmed individual,
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  Speaker 5: you have to divest a lot from what you own.
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  Speaker 5: I just don't see that happening. The question I get
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  Speaker 5: a lot from Elon too, is is he going to
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  Speaker 5: drive all of these cuts? Call me skeptical of Congress
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  Speaker 5: actually passing significant budget cuts. We get asked that after
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  Speaker 5: every election, and our federal budget just continues to go up.
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  Speaker 2: Ed, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate
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  Speaker 2: getting your perspectives. Ed Mills. He's a managing director and
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  Speaker 2: Washington policy analyst over there at Raymond James joining us
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  Speaker 2: from New York via a zoom.
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  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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• 13:00
  Speaker 1: ever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Damian Sasauer sitting in for Alex deel On paulse When
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  Speaker 2: You're live, here in a Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio streaming
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  Speaker 2: live on YouTube as well. Donald Trump was elected the
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  Speaker 2: forty seventh President of the United States, pulling off a
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  Speaker 2: political comeback in one of the most polarized contests for
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  Speaker 2: the White House in US history. While attending his supporters,
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  Speaker 2: he said, this will truly be the Golden age of America.
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  Speaker 7: I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe,
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  Speaker 7: and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve.
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  Speaker 7: This will truly be the golden age of America. This
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  Speaker 7: is a magnificent victory for the American people that will
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  Speaker 7: allow us to make America great again.
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  Speaker 6: All Right?
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  Speaker 2: That was President elect Donald Trump's addressing his supporters last evening.
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  Speaker 2: The question I think for the Democratic Party is where
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  Speaker 2: does it.
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  Speaker 1: Go from here?
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  Speaker 2: Let's check in with Wendy Schuler, Professor Brown University and
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  Speaker 2: interim director of the Watson Institute, joining us from Providence,
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  Speaker 2: Rhode Island via zoom. Wendy, we've had, you know, a
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  Speaker 2: few hours here to digest the news. If you're the
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  Speaker 2: Democratic Party, how deep do you really have to look
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  Speaker 2: inside the party to get a sense of what needs
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  Speaker 2: to be done?
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  Speaker 8: Well, you have to ask yourself why, you know popular
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  Speaker 8: incumbent senators have been reelected before shared Brown, Tammy, Baldwin, Casey,
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  Speaker 8: and Pennsylvania could not withstand the red wave, and so
• 14:32
  Speaker 8: you can attribute it to Trump charisma. The Trump followers.
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  Speaker 8: We can do that if we want to as observers.
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  Speaker 8: But you know, this ran deep, This reaction across voters,
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  Speaker 8: across different kinds of voters, from different backgrounds, different ages.
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  Speaker 8: This ran deep, and it was a signal that said,
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  Speaker 8: we don't like the policies that you're enacting. So what
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  Speaker 8: can they do. I think it's curious to go back
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  Speaker 8: to or I'm sorry, not curious informative to go back
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  Speaker 8: to Obama. Obama had a much strict border policy than
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  Speaker 8: Joe Biden, and I think he did that because he
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  Speaker 8: sensed there wasn't enough support in America for something more
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  Speaker 8: liberal and more open. So you can say to yourselves,
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  Speaker 8: the Democrats close the border for too late. The Democrats
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  Speaker 8: didn't push hard enough to get those interest rates down.
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  Speaker 8: The Democrats didn't pay attention to the price of eggs,
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  Speaker 8: and that's unusual for the Democrats, who usually care a
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  Speaker 8: lot about the price of eggs. So I think this
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  Speaker 8: is not necessarily a reboot completely, but they have got
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  Speaker 8: to meet the voter where the voter is, and last
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  Speaker 8: night the voter was not with the Democratic Party.
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  Speaker 4: When do you mention the border? And let's look ahead here.
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  Speaker 4: Trump is about to embark on what many believed to
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  Speaker 4: be the largest deportation program in US history. How does
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  Speaker 4: he expect to round them all up? And where does
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  Speaker 4: he intend to send them?
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  Speaker 8: Well, you know, Trump always surprises us in the sense
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  Speaker 8: that he'll sort of go off the ranch and then
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  Speaker 8: I'll kind of moderate. You know. The idea is how
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  Speaker 8: long does Trump want to be president? You know, he's
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  Speaker 8: constitutionally prohibited from electing, being elected, and serving, not from running,
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  Speaker 8: and so you know, does he want to last a
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  Speaker 8: long time? Maybe get rid of the twenty second Amendment.
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  Speaker 8: I don't know what he plans, but I think he
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  Speaker 8: will scale this idea up back, especially since the border
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  Speaker 8: has been shut down and you know, undocumented migration has
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  Speaker 8: slowed so much. Does he really have to do this?
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  Speaker 8: Does he have to disrupt the country this way? You know,
• 16:20
  Speaker 8: he could do some of it, but I don't think
• 16:21
  Speaker 8: the pressure's on him to do all of it because
• 16:24
  Speaker 8: Biden has already taken this step, and he'll keep that
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: policy in place.
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: When do you mention the twenty second Amendment? You're not
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: the first one today to talk about it, but you
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: know what I'm most interested in, And John Tucker mentions
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: it's the FED right. And Trump has made no secret
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: about his intention to have a greater say and monetary
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: policy here in the US. My question for you is
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: what legal mechanisms can Trump take advantage of in order
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: for the to give the Oval Office more control more
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: saying monetary policy.
• 16:47
  Speaker 8: Well, I mean the Federal Reserve Act. I mean literally
• 16:49
  Speaker 8: the Act creating Federal Reserve and all the bills that
• 16:51
  Speaker 8: have come you know after that and reauthorizing it. You know,
• 16:54
  Speaker 8: that's something that's been sort of a partnership with private
• 16:57
  Speaker 8: monetary institutions BANG and the federal government. And the thing
• 17:02
  Speaker 8: about Donald Trump is gonna need cash, right, You can't,
• 17:05
  Speaker 8: you know, you can't crash the government and crash the
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: economy by the federal government running out of cash. So
• 17:11
  Speaker 8: there is a symbiotic relationship between really big banks and
• 17:14
  Speaker 8: the Federal Reserve itself and the success of a president.
• 17:17
  Speaker 8: So there's going to have to be negotiations there. But
• 17:20
  Speaker 8: I don't think the heads of big banks. You're just
• 17:22
  Speaker 8: going to hand over the keys of the kingdom to
• 17:24
  Speaker 8: the president of the United States and amount of who
• 17:26
  Speaker 8: they are, and so that will be a negotiation, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: Trump fancies himself as a very good negotiator.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: Wendy, does Kamala Harris have a future as a leader
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: of the Democratic Party. I'm thinking maybe in four years time.
• 17:37
  Speaker 8: I think, all things considered, she ran a good campaign
• 17:40
  Speaker 8: what she was given, the time frame that she had
• 17:43
  Speaker 8: to work within, and her balancing act of trying to
• 17:45
  Speaker 8: separate from the Biden record and also present some sort
• 17:48
  Speaker 8: of plan for the future and bringing in and solidifying
• 17:51
  Speaker 8: particularly younger women, even older women. I think there's still
• 17:55
  Speaker 8: a block and a constituency that she can tap if
• 17:58
  Speaker 8: she wanted to run again. I just don't see this
• 18:01
  Speaker 8: as a Kamala Harris failed campaign. I see it as
• 18:03
  Speaker 8: Trump being a former president and energizing their base and
• 18:07
  Speaker 8: not making the same campaign mistakes they did in twenty
• 18:09
  Speaker 8: twenty and the Biden record. You know those numbers from
• 18:13
  Speaker 8: exit polls yesterday on the wrong track, Those were extraordinarily
• 18:17
  Speaker 8: high numbers. And I don't know if anybody could have
• 18:19
  Speaker 8: won in the face of those numbers.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: Wendy, I wonder if you could shift your attention here
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: to what's going on in Ukraine. Obviously, Zelenski was the
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: firebrand who rejected Trump's request for information on Hunter Biden's
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: dealings back during his first tenure. And look the battlefield's changing.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: Just yesterday, right, Ukrainian forces had their first run in
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: with North Korean troops in the Kurk region. What comes
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: next for the Ukraine, for Zelenski, for Central Europe, and
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: for Russia under a Trump administration.
• 18:44
  Speaker 8: Well, I think Trump is a fan of Putin, and
• 18:47
  Speaker 8: I think Trump has said before that he thinks there's
• 18:49
  Speaker 8: a deal that can be reached. So my guess is
• 18:52
  Speaker 8: Trump says, listen, we're not going to send you the
• 18:54
  Speaker 8: same kind of weaponry, We're not going to support you
• 18:56
  Speaker 8: the same way. Go to the table, cut a deal,
• 19:00
  Speaker 8: up crimea I mean literally, these are the things that
• 19:02
  Speaker 8: he'll say. And maybe we'll make sure that more of
• 19:04
  Speaker 8: your people don't get chilled. I mean, I think that's
• 19:06
  Speaker 8: what we'll do. And in the Middle East, you know,
• 19:08
  Speaker 8: I think people who think that he'll be a diehard
• 19:10
  Speaker 8: suborner of Israel, maybe, but he may go to the
• 19:13
  Speaker 8: saudiast and say, what kind of deal do you want
• 19:14
  Speaker 8: to cut to get this thing over with against Iran.
• 19:17
  Speaker 8: I mean, he wants to make deals and be the hero.
• 19:20
  Speaker 8: And that's something we've seen before and we'll see again.
• 19:22
  Speaker 8: So whatever whoever's dealing with him has to be able
• 19:25
  Speaker 8: to give him some sort of victory he can walk
• 19:27
  Speaker 8: away with.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Wendy, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: As always.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: Wendy Schilder, Professor Brown University and Interim Director of the
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Watson Institute. Joining us from Providence, Rhode Island.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: He Bloomberg Interactive, Brooker Studio, or streaming live over YouTube
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: as well as to check that out Over there, the
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: world is reacting, trying to make sense of kind of
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: the political elections we held here last evening in the
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: United States, new president, new Senate, and still to be determined,
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: a House of Representatives, so we're trying to talk to
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: some smart people around the world about kind of the
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: views of what might change going forward. Our next guest Mukunda.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: He's a professor, a lecturer of management practice at the
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Yale School of Management. So gotam a big surprise for
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: a lot of people waking up this morning to find
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: out that Donald Trump is the president elect and that
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: the Republicans have retaken the Senate. Here, what was your takeaway?
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: What do you hear when you when you talk to people.
• 20:41
  Speaker 9: Hi, Paul, So, first one is if you were surprised,
• 20:44
  Speaker 9: that kind of means weren't paying attention, right, the polling
• 20:47
  Speaker 9: was very clear this could go either way that right,
• 20:50
  Speaker 9: You know, maybe you're surprised by the magnitude of Trump's victory,
• 20:53
  Speaker 9: but this was a fifty to fifty election going in.
• 20:55
  Speaker 9: Then fifty fifty elections have to get resolved one way
• 20:57
  Speaker 9: or the other. For what's going to happen next, I
• 21:01
  Speaker 9: think there's some things you can kind of bet on.
• 21:03
  Speaker 9: It looks at this point increasingly likely that Republicans are
• 21:05
  Speaker 9: going to take the House of Representatives too. If you
• 21:08
  Speaker 9: have Republicans in the House, the Senate, and the presidency,
• 21:11
  Speaker 9: you can expect the tax cut. It'll be a realm
• 21:12
  Speaker 9: almost certainly a deficit finance tax cut, because that's what
• 21:15
  Speaker 9: always happens. Second, I think Trump has committed himself to
• 21:20
  Speaker 9: tariffs in a way that I suspect he's not likely
• 21:23
  Speaker 9: to back off from right away. But once he does that,
• 21:26
  Speaker 9: you're going to see economic impacts within the United States,
• 21:28
  Speaker 9: going to see retaliatory tariffs. Like the way in which
• 21:32
  Speaker 9: that trade struggle escalates is going to shape the political
• 21:35
  Speaker 9: dynamic going forward in ways that we can't predict right
• 21:38
  Speaker 9: now because we just don't know what the reactions are
• 21:39
  Speaker 9: going to be. That's all domestic domestic policy. On foreign policy,
• 21:44
  Speaker 9: I think we can pretty quickly get some insight, and
• 21:47
  Speaker 9: there I would be really concerned. If I were the Ukrainians,
• 21:50
  Speaker 9: I would just I'm not sure Ukraine's position is tenable anymore.
• 21:54
  Speaker 9: They will essentially have to rely on Western Europe to
• 21:58
  Speaker 9: supply them for their defense. I just don't know that
• 22:00
  Speaker 9: that's within Western Europe's industrial capacity, and I, you know,
• 22:04
  Speaker 9: for my friends in Ukraine, I don't know what to
• 22:06
  Speaker 9: say to them right now. And Second, the basic underpinning
• 22:11
  Speaker 9: of international politics since the Second World War has been
• 22:14
  Speaker 9: in a lot of different countries. We're willing to bet
• 22:16
  Speaker 9: their survival on the reliability of the United States as
• 22:19
  Speaker 9: an ally. That is not an overstatement. South Korea has
• 22:22
  Speaker 9: North Korea, but that has nuclear weapons, and they do
• 22:24
  Speaker 9: not have nuclear weapons. Japan has China not too far away,
• 22:27
  Speaker 9: that has nuclear weapons. They do not have nuclear weapons.
• 22:30
  Speaker 9: They had said that we trust the United States so
• 22:33
  Speaker 9: much to protect us that we are willing to risk
• 22:36
  Speaker 9: our national survival all that. If you are a defense
• 22:39
  Speaker 9: that you know you are part of the defense statism
• 22:41
  Speaker 9: in South Korea Japan, I don't see how you make
• 22:43
  Speaker 9: that bet anymore. I don't see how you could possibly
• 22:46
  Speaker 9: do that given Trump's express beliefs about alliances, and in
• 22:49
  Speaker 9: that situation, I would suspect both significant increase in defense spending.
• 22:53
  Speaker 9: And you know, right now, I'm sure they're having meetings
• 22:56
  Speaker 9: about whether they need to acquire a nuclear and Drumman, if.
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: You could talk to us a little bit about the
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: timeline between now and when Trump is expected to announce
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: some of his cabinet picks, I mean any color air.
• 23:07
  Speaker 9: So we'll find out a lot more because the cabinet
• 23:09
  Speaker 9: picks will determine, you know, a huge amount of what
• 23:12
  Speaker 9: happens next. Democrats were obviously deeply concerned by rumors that,
• 23:17
  Speaker 9: you know, Steve Bannon and Michael Flynn and Stephen Miller
• 23:21
  Speaker 9: would have very very senior roles in the Trump administration
• 23:23
  Speaker 9: and shaping its policy. But it's also possible that we'll
• 23:26
  Speaker 9: get the second term version of Steve Mnuchen and Jem
• 23:30
  Speaker 9: Mattison people like that. And I know when you talk
• 23:32
  Speaker 9: to people, you know, very sect people in the financial sector,
• 23:35
  Speaker 9: their expectation is that some of their peers will go
• 23:37
  Speaker 9: into this administration and act in the same way that
• 23:40
  Speaker 9: they did in the last one. Which one of those
• 23:42
  Speaker 9: happens is entirely up to Trump. And my guess is
• 23:45
  Speaker 9: what we'll start to see is if we look at
• 23:47
  Speaker 9: the people around him, the way I would say is
• 23:50
  Speaker 9: they're all ambitious and they don't play well with others.
• 23:53
  Speaker 9: That would be a characteristic describe to a lot of
• 23:55
  Speaker 9: these people, and so I think we're likely to see
• 23:58
  Speaker 9: some really intensive what you might call court politics. I
• 24:02
  Speaker 9: was just telling a bunch of students earlier today that
• 24:04
  Speaker 9: if you want to understand what's going to happen next,
• 24:05
  Speaker 9: you need to go back and read histories. The Byzantine Empire,
• 24:08
  Speaker 9: because that's kind of what we're thinking about, is lots
• 24:11
  Speaker 9: and lots of different people struggling to capture the ear
• 24:13
  Speaker 9: of the king and to get his support for what
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: they want to do and for their own strength and power.
• 24:19
  Speaker 9: And given what we've seen about Trump and Trump and
• 24:21
  Speaker 9: how fast he goes through staff, we might see that
• 24:24
  Speaker 9: shifting for a moment to moment, because if you look
• 24:26
  Speaker 9: at sort of what Stephen Miller wants to do and
• 24:29
  Speaker 9: what say Elon Musk wants to do, there's not a
• 24:31
  Speaker 9: lot of overlap between those two.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Gotham talk to us about the idea of checks and
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: balances here, Trump and the White House, Republican Senate, perhaps
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: a Republican led a House. Is it up to the
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: Supreme Court to act as a final check on a presidency?
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Is because there are some concerns that how the Supreme
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Court has evolved over the last several years that even
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: that may not be an effective check.
• 24:58
  Speaker 9: Well, I think that's right. I mean, it'll be the
• 24:59
  Speaker 9: super because there's not it. There's no one else, especially
• 25:02
  Speaker 9: if Republicans take the House, that right, that that'll just
• 25:06
  Speaker 9: pit for the next two years. There will be no
• 25:10
  Speaker 9: center of power significant enough to stand up to the
• 25:12
  Speaker 9: White House. And I agree with you. The Supreme Court
• 25:14
  Speaker 9: has made a series of rulings that no significant, no
• 25:17
  Speaker 9: major legal scholar would have predicted, giving sort of the
• 25:21
  Speaker 9: Trump presidency and levels of authority that are unprecedented in
• 25:24
  Speaker 9: American history. But the other half of that, I'll say
• 25:27
  Speaker 9: is is two years is not that long, and American
• 25:30
  Speaker 9: politics is deeply reactive. Political scientists referred to it as thermostatic. Basically,
• 25:34
  Speaker 9: whatever the president does, the average Americans starts to oppose it,
• 25:37
  Speaker 9: and so we might, you know, ten years later, maybe
• 25:40
  Speaker 9: the support at the classic example that is Obamacare, where
• 25:42
  Speaker 9: when Barack Obama passed it, it cost him an enormous
• 25:45
  Speaker 9: landslide defeat in the next set of elections, but ten
• 25:48
  Speaker 9: years later it's actually quite popular. So what we could
• 25:51
  Speaker 9: expect is whatever Trump does, whether you agree with it
• 25:54
  Speaker 9: or disagree with it, everything we know about political science
• 25:56
  Speaker 9: says that the average American is going to disapprove because
• 25:59
  Speaker 9: that's just how big America free responder chain. If that
• 26:02
  Speaker 9: is strong enough, then you'll see the House switch sides
• 26:06
  Speaker 9: again in twenty twenty six, and then you'll might start
• 26:09
  Speaker 9: to see some real checks and balances. But for the
• 26:11
  Speaker 9: next for the next twenty four months, I expect them
• 26:14
  Speaker 9: to have essentially a free hand.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: All right, Gotham, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: Gotham mccondac Professor, Lecturer of Management Practice at the Yale
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: School of Management up in New Haven.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Let's see about policy, because a lot of changes to
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: be expected from a global policy here in a Trump administration,
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: particularly one where it also has a Republican in the
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: Senate as well in the leadership roles. Monica guerre joins
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: US executive director and head US Policy from Morgan Stanley
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: Wealth Management. Monica, thanks so much for joining us here. Uh,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: I say, huge political news over last evening and into
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: this morning. How do you frame that out for your
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management customers as it relates to their portfolios?
• 27:17
  Speaker 6: Yeah, no, that's that's a great question, you know, one
• 27:19
  Speaker 6: of the things that you know, we are really focusing
• 27:22
  Speaker 6: on is, you know, what does the president have control over,
• 27:26
  Speaker 6: especially since we don't have the full outcome on Congress.
• 27:29
  Speaker 6: So that's what we're talking about right now. And what
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: we see is trade tariffs and energy policy really being
• 27:35
  Speaker 6: the most sensitive to President along Trump's second term. So
• 27:39
  Speaker 6: for example, you know, you can have higher tariffs on
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: China and a potential universal tariff and those could you know,
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: potentially negatively drag on growth and boost inflation in the
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: short term. But you know, we're also focusing on some
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: of the other you know, fact winners that could come
• 27:56
  Speaker 6: out of you know, his executive branch.
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: True Baby Drill, I mean, Monica talk to us a
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: little bit about what we're seeing in the commodity complex here.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, I see it off one and a half
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: percent year to date. It was just up a few
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: weeks ago. You would think maybe perhaps with some of
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: the policies that Trump is floating here on the energy sector,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: are certainly you know, minerals that are hard to get
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: et cetera, that we would see something bounce back here.
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: But it seems like things are kind of rolling over.
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: Curious to hear your thoughts there.
• 28:20
  Speaker 6: Yeah, and you know, the partment of energy. That's a
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: great example of you know where Trump has a lot
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: of control to acting the laterally on the on the
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: drilling side, and we don't see that really impacting the
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: market positively because you know, more supply could put pressure
• 28:36
  Speaker 6: on pricing as you're thinking about from the from the
• 28:39
  Speaker 6: market's perspective, that set. If we're thinking about energy broadly
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: inclusive of a clean energy agenda, there's a real risk
• 28:48
  Speaker 6: there to clean energy from my policy perspective, from a
• 28:52
  Speaker 6: you know, rollback and potential inflation reduct Reduction Act tax credits.
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: But one of the things we want to highlight here
• 28:59
  Speaker 6: on energy is that even though you could have sort
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: of a deconstructive approach to tax credits, clean energy policy,
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: et cetera, what you're really focusing on here is rates
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: the rate environment. Clean energy is an industry functions like
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: growth stocks, and so when rates are low and markets
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: right now are currently pricing in four cuts through the
• 29:22
  Speaker 6: end of twenty twenty six, essentially energy clean energy can outperform.
• 29:27
  Speaker 6: And so that's that's what we're focusing on in the
• 29:30
  Speaker 6: energy sector, is that while from a policy perspective, you
• 29:33
  Speaker 6: don't see much movement on traditional You could see movement
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: sort of negatively placing a drag on clean energy. The
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: real story is the rate story on clean energy.
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: So I'm looking at the vix here. As my colleague
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: Paul Sweeney, you know, rightly points out, we're back down
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: to sixteen, off twenty two percent day over day, you know,
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: off nearly a third since you know, the fourth since Monday.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: You know, talk to us a little bit about, you know,
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: expectations for volatility under a Trump regime. I remember during
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: his first term, you know, you know, it was jump risk, right,
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: it was, you know, one day he says something, you know,
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: his left leg is feeling one thing, and all of
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: a sudden he says it, and the markets kind of
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: react to that. You know, we've been in an environment
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: for the better part of the last four years, Monica,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: where it's been all about rate differentials, all about monetary policies,
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: all about the Fed. Is there any chance that the Fed,
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: that you know, rate differentials, can retake control of the
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: market narrative here or are we just in Trump's world
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: and everyone's just living in it.
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: That's a that's a great question. I mean, I think
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: the drop off in the vix that we're seeing that's
• 30:33
  Speaker 6: just par for the course with normal election year activity.
• 30:36
  Speaker 6: Once you have right the president set, you have a
• 30:40
  Speaker 6: sense of what's happening with Congress. Granted we don't really
• 30:42
  Speaker 6: know what's happening with a House, volatility plummets. Yes, you're
• 30:46
  Speaker 6: going to see a headline response. One of the one
• 30:48
  Speaker 6: of the sort of murky areas around Trump is which
• 30:51
  Speaker 6: Trump are we going to get? Does that mean that
• 30:53
  Speaker 6: we get more disruption or is it really a story
• 30:56
  Speaker 6: all about Congress and what they do with taxes. In
• 30:58
  Speaker 6: that case, if it's focused on is things are likely
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: to remain more stable, especially as we lost the play
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: by play as they debate each provision under the Tax
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: Cuts and Jobs Act, you could get you an extension
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: of most of it. But what's important here is that
• 31:13
  Speaker 6: even if you have you know that's a shallow red
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: wave in the House and you have that unified government,
• 31:19
  Speaker 6: those thin margins mean that they're still room for the
• 31:22
  Speaker 6: GOP to play. So we are going to be watching
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: that for a while and I think that yes, Trump
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: is the disruptive, disruption president. Right, we're thinking about headline
• 31:32
  Speaker 6: reaction volatility that's short lived, but over the long run,
• 31:37
  Speaker 6: what we're all going to be focusing on is that
• 31:39
  Speaker 6: tax agend and what happens in Congress.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: All right, Monica, thanks so much for joining us. Monica Aguera,
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: executive director a head of US policy for Morgan Stanley
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Wealth Management.
• 31:48
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• 31:56
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• 32:00
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• 32:03
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