Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / 2026 Bowman Chrome - Week 1 Older Hitter Price Check!
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Jabba Cards, one of your two co-hosts ⁓ of the podcast, and we have a little bit of a surprise. We were only gonna film two episodes today, but our quant, ⁓ my father, sent us a third ⁓ third little list ⁓ of data that we can talk about. ⁓ joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown, also known as JGB underscore cards underscore. underscore_underscore_: Huh. Jaba: and yeah, like I said, you know, we kind of have a ⁓ quant in our corner. ⁓ all this data that we're gonna talk about today and in past episodes, ⁓ unless we mention that it's, you know, a direct eBay sale, all of our data is coming from our sponsor today, Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v one dot com. The absolute best place to aggregate data, research prospects, track your collection. ⁓ it's just got everything you could possibly want. Critical tool. I probably wouldn't even still be doing all this if it weren't for that, just because it makes life so easy. ⁓ yeah. Here today, ⁓ we just filmed an episode on kind of like the DSL slash prep hitters, just kind of the ⁓ the the young fellows. ⁓ this is a bit different. It's gonna be our older hitters. I think it's basically 21-year-olds and above. I don't want to call it all college guys. So it's not, there's just some older, you know, international guys that broke out a little later. but yeah, we got the top ten by price, and I'm gonna kick it over to Jeremy to kinda talk about what stands out and what his feelings are. Jeremy, hit us. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Yep. I th I think our one and two kind of make sense, right? Like if you went through the checklist of hey, who's not on here? Alex Low Dice, we talked about him averaging a fifty-eight, I kinda thought he'd be higher than that. I saw him right around that like sixty-five, seventy range recently, but maybe they're just churning over that fast that it's kind of settling right around that sixty dollar mark. Which still for a twenty four year old or sorry, twenty two year old in double A Putting up numbers, he's the only auto for the Braves. We know the Braves fans sell well. I assume you agree with me that that makes sense. Jaba: Yeah, yeah. I I hadn't even thought about it 'cause I mean there's really only one name here that I'm chasing. But yeah. I i if you had asked me to guess, I think I would have been comfortable putting ⁓ Lotis at one, for sure. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. number two, Owen Ayers, Cubs number two prospect, switch hitting catcher, bazooka behind the plate. He is 25, he is in triple A. He is averaging fifty-eight, almost sixty dollars in auto. one of my buddies bought the red shimmer off eBay for what is going to be a steal, I believe. It all depends in on what you think of him long term. If the Cubs market is gonna hold him up, if he's gonna be able to start for the Cubs next year, play for the Cubs next year. 25, he turns 26 next year, so that is making him our potentially the oldest signer in the product. ⁓ our boy Anthony Martinez checks in at number three. I'll let you take that one away just because that's your guy. Anyone you buy in a hundred case or can be your guy. Jaba: Yeah. to be fair I had some fanatics credit, so I'm not that you know I'm not usually paying in those pools. Playing in those pools. also I had something Owen Ayers, ⁓ two years younger than Juan Soto. Just thought I'd put that out there. I always think that that's funny. underscore_underscore_: Degenerative. It's fun to find like the extremes and just compare them and be like, Hey, yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. anyhow, not to derail us too much. Anthony Martinez, two things are true here, right? I like him a lot. I like him a lot as a sleeper, and I love kind of the power breakout he had this year. ⁓ coming off a guy that was more hit over power in college. The other end of that, he should not be a $37 auto. He will not be a $37 base auto. ⁓ you know, I think that's way too high, and I think a lot of that is, you know, just released, so it'll probably get slashed in half. But even if that's the case, I'm really happy if he's a fifteen to twenty dollar auto. Because I had kind of pegged him as a guy where I thought he would fall to the five to ten range, and I would just kind of come in there and clean out all the true color based off that multiple. And it's still early. Things change, things will will continue to change and we'll keep kind of checking on this weekly. But I'm I'm I'm encouraged to see, you know, kind of that people are recognizing him. I think it's a pretty thin list here of kind of the older hitters. So I think that he's kind of a natural fit, has a popular sleeper so to speak. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Agree. Yeah. I will say, like, just looking at eBay right now, like in real time compared to when these numbers were pulled, we had him as a 37 average. You can bin a refractor for 33. You can bin a base at 15. There's another one at 40. Like they're they're kind of all over, but it there there's a 25 OBO base auto. ⁓ looks like his n mean is or is probably gonna fall here pretty quickly. Jaba: Okay. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: As they change hands. One reason I think he was probably higher at release too is because people who wanted him could only get his autos and the base auto is the cheapest option. He he doesn't have chromes, he doesn't have color. He is an auto only, kind of like Ralphie Velasquez was in twenty three draft. ⁓ so if you want a card, if you ⁓ say what? Jaba: I should have known that before I did the Hunter Caser. I said I probably should have known that before the Hunter Caser. That is breaking news. underscore_underscore_: So like that is if you wanted an Anthony Martinez card and your cheapest option was a base auto, you're probably gonna go up and pay it. Whereas now that things are coming out, cards are hitting the market, I do think his base auto is gonna fall. I still do think he is gonna be somebody I'm gonna try to buy. I skunked on a fifteen case or not a single card. That's wonderful. So ⁓ good one there though. That that's a small little rant about him just being a color only or auto only. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, that's ⁓ that's news to me, so I'm not gonna really talk about it and act like an expert. ⁓ given that I didn't know that. But yeah, Anthony Martinez guy like a lot. Another guy at number four here, Austin Overn. I do like the production a lot. I hate the strikeout rate and I hate the twenty three and double A, but twenty three and double A isn't that bad. underscore_underscore_: That's not that bad. Jaba: It i it's a year older than you would like, but I mean I'm sitting on a bunch of Charles Davillon here. He's gonna be twenty three and double A next year. ⁓ you can point to plenty of good guys who are twenty three and double A. so I I wouldn't I wouldn't let that push you away. but yeah, he's a thirty three, which ⁓ that makes sense to me. Does that make sense to you? Not the thirty three, but being number four here, I think. I think he's probably more excited than team is yeah. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. I think so. He's probably your number three, honestly. ⁓ I know 'cause I had a refractor, they were doing about a hundred bucks refractors. Obviously those aren't changing hands as much, so you're not getting your double up, you're probably getting closer to that three to almost four times right now being so new. ⁓ Rays fans, I I think the Rays are kinda like the Brewers too, where people just trust the system. Like if you have any type of prospect status coming out of a product, you're gonna have to pay up. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: And even those like the lower tier guys, or probably guy like Fabricio Blanco, probably is getting a little extra push for being a raise international switch hitting guy. we'll keep this train moving. White Vincent mm Gometz, thirty-two dollar average base auto. I was shocked by that. When I looked them up, there are a lot of forties recently. I know a true gold did four hundred, a gold shimmer did three eighty. I'm sitting here looking at a true black on my back wall that my ⁓ buddy hit. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Which I don't even know how to price that with those golds and even the base auto doing that high. So we're just gonna let that one kind of figure itself out. Jaba: Yeah, I I mean I I I will say I'll just jump in quickly. You know, I'm as big a Mets fan as you'll find and I see Wyatt Vincent at thirty three dollars and I have no interest. If he was twenty dollars I would still have no interest. ⁓ nothing against the kid. Maybe if he falls to ten I'd buy something 'cause I'm a Mets fan, but that's n a little ugly for me. underscore_underscore_: Moving on. ⁓ ALA I mean twenty-one's not a bad price because I think he just hit his twenty-sixth last night. Question mark exclamation point underscore, I think. ⁓ and again he's like a guy if he shows up at like the AFL in the Arizona Fall League. Jaba: Your boy. underscore_underscore_: Could kind of do some damage. ⁓ I am looking at a base auto ending in thirty six minutes, that it's at ten dollars. You can go bin one at twenty dollars, twenty five. So obviously that's just a a reflection of how like the market's quickly settling on the lower end stuff. ⁓ Jaba: Which I I feel like is faster than usual. That could be just a recency bias, but I feel like in the past there was kind of a higher period of just stupid elevated prices. underscore_underscore_: Could come down to simply more people in the Bowman space too. Cards as a whole are a lot bigger. More people into the Bowman, ripping, getting into case breaks, just listing and selling and flipping and moving, moving and shaking. ⁓ but yeah, AOA twenty one, not a bad little value there if he comes down, I think, to maybe even that fifteen dollar mark. I will say that with hesitancy as he is twenty-three. He's in double A, but he's kind of coming into his own now, more one of those quote unquote late bloomers, so to speak. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ Jaba: He's probably the fourth best guy or fifth fourth or fifth best guy on this list. underscore_underscore_: I'd agree. If you took everything, if you could like strip a player of their teams, yeah. I'd put ⁓ right up there probably over in three and AOA four, honestly. ⁓ again, Arizona market, kinda have to watch out for that. ⁓ I don't th I I don't want it to be true because I think prospect status overrides team market, but it's proving not to be true. Look at Ryan Waldschmidt. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I I I I sold a Ryan Waldschmidt on my whatnot stream two weeks ago for I think seventeen dollars. obviously he's already up. He's struggled a little bit, but I mean he's a serious prospect. He's he was a top one hundred guy, first rounder. and seventeen wasn't he? Like it's not even like I got murdered on that. I think it was like a little low. But I wasn't like particularly upset with it. but yeah, and I I'm just gonna swoop in ahead of you here. Randy Guzman. underscore_underscore_: Correct. An actual big leaguer. Yeah. Jaba: At seven twenty dollars. Not buying him at twenty dollars, another Met. But I do want to say I would take him over Wyatt Vincent in a heartbeat. ⁓ it's more like a first baseman profile, which we don't love. But he did have a nice season. He played most of the year in single A St. Lucie. He was quite good. ⁓ he wasn't like outstanding or anything, but then he was still good in Brooklyn and high A, which is known as like one of the worst hitters environments in the minors. So I do just kinda wanna say Randy Guzman at twenty bucks still too high, but he's seven, Wide Vincent's five for the Mets. If you're a Mets fan, I I think you know as long as the the prices won't stay the same, but I think as long as the hierarchy stays the same, I I think Guzman's the guy you go for and I don't really think twice about it. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I'm I mean Vincent is an athlete. We saw him a lot in high school. Six six runner. Just kinda has to get his feet under him. ⁓ what what part what trade was he a part of? ⁓ no. No, he was a Mets draft. I I was looking at his profile we had. We have him as a Giants draft pick, so somebody messed up on the back end. ⁓ he's a good athlete. There's good tools there. I know he buys his own cards right now too. He's probably trying to build out a rainbow. ⁓ so maybe he's got friends family also in the hobby. Jaba: Wyatt Finton? He didn't get turned he was a lot around. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm I'm not against I'm just underscore_underscore_: Which is always cool when you have that. ⁓ but yeah, he he is a athlete. We'll see what happens ⁓ this upcoming year. He was A ball, twenty years old. Don't know a lot about Guzman, so definitely deferred that one to you. Jaba: Yeah, I mean the the the Guzman, he he's a year older and it's basically just having a year of really good single eight performance under his belt. And it's basically like, you know, Vincent's gonna be that age next year and you know, you'd be happy if he had the season Guzman had. I I would you know, the Vincent ceiling's gonna be way higher, right? But I I yeah, I mean Guzman's gonna be a first baseman, he can't really move. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Right. Yeah, with just the athleticism and tools. So we'll see. Jaba: But I'm I'm purely just going off kind of body of work to date. There's nothing Benson can really do about that. ⁓ but yeah, I'm just saying Guzman's safer. underscore_underscore_: Right. ⁓ for sure. Yeah. No, but like Yeah, but but if those prices were flipped and then you said in a year that Vincent went from a twenty to a thirty, just like I don't think that would be that surprising just with the athleticism. ⁓ and being a met. Jaba: Yeah. He has more chance of becoming like a fifty dollar auto than Guzm. underscore_underscore_: Right. J now that we have our Met stock out. ⁓ Alejandro Nunez, one of what, three? Two, three? there's another update. two or three two or three ⁓ Houston autos. He's the first Astro we've seen, correct? No, Joseph Sullivan's not on this list. Joseph Sullivan's gotta be more than a fourteen dollar auto, no? Jaba: Quant is growing bananas. Yeah, 'cause Santa wasn't in the top ten. No, p pe people don't. People aren't liking ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Okay. So you have Alejandro Nunez, the only Astro, and then talking Joseph Sullivan, who is one of the older chases in the product, we'll round it out with Brendan Jones and Brandon Buttersworth, ⁓ both twenty four year olds and triple A. You have Alejandro Nunez, double A twenty one at sixteen dollars. Then you got Jones at fifteen, Butterworth at fourteen. Jones I know how to refractor just do seventy, which kinda lines up with that like almost four times to five times where Refractors might just not be transacting as quickly as base autos are. I have seen people on whatnot streams ask for Brendan Jones. Combination of the athleticism, proximity, but he is a Marlin. ⁓ yeah, I don't really have a whole lot to add there other than just say their names and prices and where they're at. ⁓ kind of feels like good good names. Like if you told me to pick out a couple from a list to round out the top ten, I'd probably be I'd pick Brandon Jones Brendan Jones at least. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: I don't know that I'd pick Buttersworth. I don't know if that's his name doing the poll or what, but ⁓ I've seen some of his color like true color pretty cheap on bins on ebay, so Jaba: Yeah, I I I think the Yeah, I I think the bottom three here, there's a clear tier the top seven guys, whatever order you want to put ⁓ in, are all somewhere between being solid and, you know, at least having something you can talk about, right? Like we just talked about Wyatt Vincent at length and said, you know, there's a chance he becomes a big auto. Maybe not big, but like there's a ceiling. ⁓ the bottom three guys here, you know, I just don't really see that ceiling unless somebody has a freakishly late mass. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: massive breakout, which can always happen. It's just none of those guys are on my radar right now. underscore_underscore_: Right. I I just feel like it's gonna be a shorter window if they have a breakout too just due to age. Like Like just being there at twenty four already, like some of these guys are gonna be quick, come go almost types, but we'll see. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. yeah. I think that I think that kind of covers everyone. I don't know if you have any kind of cumulative thoughts here. underscore_underscore_: No, that's kind of more of a short, quick twenty plus age hitter. I think the Alex Low Dice Owen Ayers leading the pack there makes a hundred percent sense. ⁓ probably would have would have thought AOA would be a little higher now that he's in the news more recently, almost up to thirty home runs. Anthony Martinez being that high Jaba: Yeah. Great. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ it looks like he's quickly settled. Again, he's an auto only guy like Ralphie Velasquez, kind of a profile similarly to Ralphie, but he was a lot older than Ralphie when he had his first. Over and Up there makes sense. Wyatt Vincent, Randy Guzman, and then you have Nunez, Brendan Jones, and Butterworth to round out the top ten. ⁓ So I'm just looking at the newest list that came through. Jaba: Yeah, that's Yeah. underscore_underscore_: With ⁓ Juan Rio snuck in there, Isaiah Castillo snuck in there, as guys we hadn't talked about before. what is this, just overall? Jaba: Look at our Kwan putting in DSL two for the repeaters. What a world. underscore_underscore_: This is just everybody right now. Just a straight up. So just straight up you're merging everybody all together. You got Luis Fernandez 1. Rentoria 2. Gomez 3. Ocogen four. Colomay five. Ricky Moneys. Azakar Frontado. Low Rey Dos Santos rounding out your ten. Joni El Hernandez, Slater de Brun, Santiago Solarte, Isaias Castillo, the Yankees, repeater of the DSL, but had a really good year. And Juan Rijo. Jaba: Yeah, yeah, yeah. underscore_underscore_: Mariners. We didn't get to talk about him. He's a $34 base auto right now. ⁓ of the three Mariners, he's probably the swing I like the most of the three, or the one that I would buy of the three between him, ⁓ on the spot, ⁓ PO and Reynoso was the other one. Leonardo Reynoso. ⁓ we got there. Then you got Wilder Dalis at sixteen, Angel Nunez 17, Juan Torres, the other Yankee 18, Samil Serrano. Jaba: P L. So it's Riho and Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Still feels criminally low, nineteen and gyder suarez at ⁓ twenty for twenty seven. And those are your top ten base auto bats because there's no arms in here. So that kind of combines everybody in the product. So I Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I think that covers everything. This is definitely gonna be the last release. You know, we filmed three today, one kind of doing the young hitters, one doing just the top ten pitchers, and then this one. ⁓ so that'll probably be all we talk about prices this week, 'cause that's three episodes right there. ⁓ but yeah, we're gonna try to make this a weekly thing, you know, track it, and you know, I think it's fun to discuss. Hopefully you guys like it. As Jeremy said in the last episode, if you guys have any requests, ideas, thoughts, ⁓ you know, we're here for you guys and you know know we want to make you guys happy and you know help you guys out so don't be a stranger with us and ⁓ we'll talk to you next time go mets underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Gomet.