Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Ignore Bias | NHL & MLB Divisional Series & NFL| 10/5/26
Transcript
- 0:16Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
- 0:19Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
- 0:23Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
- 0:28Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
- 0:31Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
- 0:35Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
- 0:39Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
- 0:44Speaker 2: Look at me now.
- 0:49Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
- 0:59Speaker 3: hold on Let me pull you out That fellow fights
- 1:08Speaker 3: hard But he don't get the.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Crown Hold on, hold on.
- 1:17Speaker 1: Stay with me now.
- 1:27Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Monday,
- 1:32Speaker 4: October 5th. I feel like I got a lot of
- 1:34Speaker 4: things right yesterday that were not plays for me. I
- 1:37Speaker 4: don't know what else to tell you, man. Another good
- 1:39Speaker 4: week for me overall in the pigskin pick'em. Pools, yet, yeah,
- 1:45Speaker 4: I went 10-5, including the Thursday game, yet the one
- 1:49Speaker 4: play I gave out, not a winner with the fucking Jets.
- 1:53Speaker 4: I mean, that was a 13-7 game, or 13-6, whatever,
- 1:56Speaker 4: in the third quarter. So it's like, yeah, the Jets
- 1:58Speaker 4: are obviously hanging around in this game. Bears didn't do
- 2:02Speaker 4: a whole lot offensively there, even though I like Tyson Bajan.
- 2:05Speaker 4: I think he's good. I think he was not that
- 2:08Speaker 4: bad in that game yesterday either. Had a lot of
- 2:11Speaker 4: yards per play, but whatever. Yeah, not a winner. I
- 2:15Speaker 4: don't know what else to say. I mean, I felt
- 2:18Speaker 4: less strong about a lot of the other games when
- 2:21Speaker 4: I was right about a lot of them. A lot
- 2:22Speaker 4: of the ones that I was in conflict with where
- 2:25Speaker 4: some of the professionals were, like Arizona and Giants, those games,
- 2:28Speaker 4: I was right about most of those. I don't know
- 2:30Speaker 4: what else to say, man. My contest interim, 2-2 right
- 2:35Speaker 4: now with obviously the Saints pending for tonight. Hockey... Florida
- 2:40Speaker 4: should have won that game, dude. Florida was the better
- 2:43Speaker 4: team in that game throughout. They won every stat. They
- 2:46Speaker 4: won the shots. They won the hits. They won the face-offs.
- 2:49Speaker 4: Yet they were losing by one goal for the majority
- 2:52Speaker 4: of the game. They tied it, sent it into overtime.
- 2:55Speaker 4: That's still not what you want with a favorite, though.
- 2:57Speaker 4: You don't want a toss-up game in overtime. It's literally
- 3:00Speaker 4: just a coin flip, basically, once you get that far.
- 3:02Speaker 4: And yet they lost the game. It fucking sucks, dude.
- 3:07Speaker 4: That game, yeah, it was a little bit misleading, and
- 3:09Speaker 4: then Calgary, yeah, that team sucks. I don't know what
- 3:13Speaker 4: else to say. They got destroyed in the game, but obviously,
- 3:16Speaker 4: whenever you see a game that's that lopsided on the scoreboard,
- 3:19Speaker 4: there's going to be something misleading about it. Calgary did
- 3:22Speaker 4: have more shots in the game. The game was close statistically, although,
- 3:25Speaker 4: of course, like I always say, when a team's losing
- 3:27Speaker 4: by a lot, they do fire off more shots, so
- 3:30Speaker 4: that can be a little bit misleading, but that game
- 3:31Speaker 4: statistically was not a blowout loss at the very least, although...
- 3:36Speaker 4: Did they deserve to lose? Yeah, probably. They sucked. But
- 3:40Speaker 4: they didn't suck anywhere near as bad as what the
- 3:42Speaker 4: final score made it look. We have to bounce back
- 3:45Speaker 4: from that bullshit. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
- 3:49Speaker 4: I don't know why you would, since nothing that I
- 3:52Speaker 4: say is accurate. We have four hockey games here that
- 3:56Speaker 4: are all in the evening. I don't have a hockey
- 3:58Speaker 4: play today. My strongest opinion in hockey is in the
- 4:02Speaker 4: last game on the board here. The first game is
- 4:05Speaker 4: Philly at Tampa Bay, NHL network game. I don't know
- 4:09Speaker 4: what to do with this game. Tampa Bay is coming
- 4:11Speaker 4: off a nice win for us the other day against Washington.
- 4:15Speaker 4: They're staying at home here with the day off. I
- 4:18Speaker 4: don't really think they're going to overlook Philadelphia as Philadelphia
- 4:21Speaker 4: was a team that made the playoffs last year and
- 4:23Speaker 4: made it further than Tampa Bay did in the playoffs
- 4:25Speaker 4: last year. I think both teams probably show up for this.
- 4:28Speaker 4: Tampa has a few days off, and then they play
- 4:30Speaker 4: Minnesota after this. But I think both teams show up.
- 4:33Speaker 4: Philadelphia definitely will, though, because they don't have a win yet.
- 4:36Speaker 4: They have two overtime losses. So Philly's been pretty competitive,
- 4:40Speaker 4: except when they got blown out by Pittsburgh in their
- 4:42Speaker 4: first game. But that was a huge revenge game for Pittsburgh, whatever. Philly,
- 4:47Speaker 4: it's not that bad losing in overtime to New Jersey
- 4:49Speaker 4: and Carolina. Those are both solid teams. But my problem
- 4:53Speaker 4: would be coming off of two huge games like that,
- 4:55Speaker 4: like taking the returning champs, Carolina, into overtime. Yeah, it's
- 5:00Speaker 4: going to be tough to get back up off the
- 5:03Speaker 4: mat after that. And I believe that was a revenge
- 5:06Speaker 4: situation as well for Philadelphia, wasn't it? Let me see.
- 5:10Speaker 4: Am I wrong about that? Actually, maybe. Yeah, I'm right. Yeah,
- 5:14Speaker 4: they lost in the second round of the playoffs. They
- 5:15Speaker 4: got swept by Carolina. Yeah, that's what I thought. So
- 5:18Speaker 4: that was a revenge game for Philadelphia as well, so.
- 5:21Speaker 4: That was a huge game for them against Carolina, and
- 5:24Speaker 4: they almost pulled off the upset. So coming off of that,
- 5:29Speaker 4: I don't have any interest in playing Philadelphia here. Coming
- 5:31Speaker 4: off a big game like that, Tampa Bay is very
- 5:34Speaker 4: public here. 90% of the tickets on them, only 80%
- 5:37Speaker 4: of the cash. They're a minus 200 favorite. I don't
- 5:39Speaker 4: want to lay that price here with Tampa Bay either,
- 5:42Speaker 4: although the odds makers are telling you Tampa Bay is
- 5:44Speaker 4: the significantly better of these two teams here. Philadelphia is
- 5:48Speaker 4: a decent defensive team, though. But still, I don't know,
- 5:52Speaker 4: the spot to me looks worse for Philadelphia. That was
- 5:54Speaker 4: a huge game for them against Carolina. It's just that
- 5:57Speaker 4: teams are going to continue to be motivated when they're winless,
- 6:00Speaker 4: you know what I mean? But still, it's tough to
- 6:02Speaker 4: come off back-to-back really tough overtime games like Philadelphia's doing.
- 6:07Speaker 4: I think I would kind of lean Tampa Bay there,
- 6:10Speaker 4: but the price obviously is not good. It's not right,
- 6:14Speaker 4: I don't think, on Tampa. I mean, if you play Tampa,
- 6:18Speaker 4: you've got to lay– the minus one and a half
- 6:20Speaker 4: or whatever. What I think we should start doing is
- 6:23Speaker 4: just knock the price down by taking Tampa to win
- 6:26Speaker 4: in regulation or something like that. That might be a
- 6:29Speaker 4: way to lean in that game, but I would not
- 6:31Speaker 4: want to do that either because the money is not
- 6:32Speaker 4: agreeing with it. Ottawa at Boston, the first thing you
- 6:36Speaker 4: notice here is Ottawa's a favorite here on the road.
- 6:39Speaker 4: So the oddsmakers, no respect for the Bruins at all,
- 6:43Speaker 4: and maybe rightfully so because they suck. So the oddsmakers
- 6:46Speaker 4: are telling you Ottawa's the better team by enough that
- 6:49Speaker 4: they're the road favorite here. Bruins just took their first
- 6:52Speaker 4: loss in Minnesota. Didn't expect the Bruins to win. The
- 6:55Speaker 4: Bruins used their backup goalie in that game as well,
- 6:58Speaker 4: so that was not a Swayman game. So I assume
- 7:01Speaker 4: Swayman will be back in net here for the Bruins,
- 7:03Speaker 4: so they will have their better goalie, unless he's hurt,
- 7:05Speaker 4: but I doubt it. Yeah, I think he just had
- 7:07Speaker 4: rest in that game. Um, Bruins were turning on from
- 7:12Speaker 4: a road trip technically, but it was a short road
- 7:15Speaker 4: trip Friday and Saturday. So I don't really see that as, oh,
- 7:18Speaker 4: they're on this long road trip. They got to return
- 7:20Speaker 4: home back to the home distractions, whatever. But I still
- 7:23Speaker 4: don't think it's that good of a spot because it's
- 7:24Speaker 4: a third game in four days, all in different cities.
- 7:28Speaker 4: That's still not easy to do. That's a lot of
- 7:31Speaker 4: games in quick succession, all in different locations. And after
- 7:35Speaker 4: you take your first loss, sometimes it'll hang you over
- 7:37Speaker 4: a little bit too. Although the It's worse if you
- 7:39Speaker 4: take it later in the season. Ottawa's only 1-0 right now.
- 7:43Speaker 4: They only played on Saturday. They're coming in from Toronto.
- 7:47Speaker 4: I think the spot is a little bit better for
- 7:49Speaker 4: Ottawa here in this one, man. And it will be
- 7:52Speaker 4: former Bruin goalie Omar, most likely, in this game going
- 7:56Speaker 4: up against Swayman. They used to be on the same team,
- 8:00Speaker 4: the goaltending tandem. It'll be an interesting one. You know, maybe...
- 8:05Speaker 4: maybe an under really in this game. I mean, again,
- 8:08Speaker 4: I don't do much with totals, but that's a pretty
- 8:10Speaker 4: good goaltending matchup. Swayman against Allman, Allman, Allmark, Tracy Allman,
- 8:15Speaker 4: the show where the Simpsons started. No, Allmark. The money
- 8:19Speaker 4: is coming in on the under in this. 75% of
- 8:21Speaker 4: tickets on the over, 87% of the cash on the under.
- 8:24Speaker 4: So the under is getting traction here and it's A
- 8:27Speaker 4: fairly low total at 5.5, which is close to as
- 8:31Speaker 4: low as you'll see in hockey. So oddsmakers seem to
- 8:33Speaker 4: think this will be a little bit lower scoring as well.
- 8:35Speaker 4: I think I would lean to Ottawa in this game.
- 8:38Speaker 4: Ottawa around a minus 115 favorite. The Bruins are the
- 8:42Speaker 4: public side. So the Bruins look like a dreaded public
- 8:46Speaker 4: underdog here, which is not what you want to do typically.
- 8:49Speaker 4: 85% of tickets, 95% of the cash on the Bruins.
- 8:54Speaker 4: So it does look like they're getting some money. I mean,
- 8:56Speaker 4: the public doesn't usually get that involved in hockey, especially
- 9:00Speaker 4: just these kind of ugly early season games like this.
- 9:04Speaker 4: But I don't know, man. I think Ottawa is probably
- 9:07Speaker 4: my lean in that one. Don't feel that strongly. Winnipeg
- 9:11Speaker 4: at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is 2-0 right now, but I don't
- 9:15Speaker 4: think they're that good. Pittsburgh coming off two huge wins.
- 9:19Speaker 4: They blew out their rival Philadelphia in a revenge game.
- 9:23Speaker 4: Then they beat Montreal. who, as we know, made the
- 9:26Speaker 4: conference finals last year. So that was a big win
- 9:29Speaker 4: for Pittsburgh, an overtime win against Montreal. Now Pittsburgh stays
- 9:32Speaker 4: at home, gets Winnipeg in here. Might be a game
- 9:35Speaker 4: Pittsburgh overlooks here, man. Pittsburgh's got Washington on deck. That's
- 9:39Speaker 4: a bigger game for them, I would say, because it's
- 9:41Speaker 4: another conference game. Winnipeg is out of conference, so they
- 9:45Speaker 4: might overlook Winnipeg here a little bit. Winnipeg hasn't really
- 9:47Speaker 4: looked very good so far, and I don't think they are.
- 9:49Speaker 4: They're also using Skinner in net because Hello Book is,
- 9:53Speaker 4: I don't know, Probably never going to play again for
- 9:56Speaker 4: Winnipeg because he's refusing to do so. And I think
- 9:58Speaker 4: he's suspended now. for that reason. Ridiculous. Winnipeg beat Detroit yesterday, though,
- 10:07Speaker 4: so Winnipeg is on a back-to-back here. They're playing a
- 10:10Speaker 4: third game in four days, all in different cities. You
- 10:12Speaker 4: know I don't really like that very much. And Winnipeg
- 10:14Speaker 4: does have Colorado on deck. That is a big game.
- 10:18Speaker 4: That's a divisional game. I think, yeah, that's a divisional
- 10:21Speaker 4: game in the Central Division, I'm pretty sure. So that
- 10:24Speaker 4: is a big game. The money is still indicating towards
- 10:27Speaker 4: Winnipeg here. Pittsburgh's a big favorite, about minus 170. And
- 10:31Speaker 4: knowing that the oddsmakers don't think Pittsburgh is really that good,
- 10:35Speaker 4: The odds makers are telling you Winnipeg is really not good.
- 10:38Speaker 4: The fact that they're that much of an underdog. 84%
- 10:41Speaker 4: of the tickets on Pittsburgh, 81% of the cash on Pittsburgh.
- 10:45Speaker 4: So Pittsburgh is a public side, less of the money
- 10:47Speaker 4: on them. The other thing interesting about this, if Skinner
- 10:50Speaker 4: is actually playing in this game, he's playing against his
- 10:53Speaker 4: former team. Because Skinner got traded from the Oilers to
- 10:57Speaker 4: the Penguins. Last year. So he played for the Penguins
- 11:01Speaker 4: and now he's going to be going up against the Penguins.
- 11:03Speaker 4: I don't know if that's that much of a motivator.
- 11:05Speaker 4: I mean, maybe when you're a goalie, you want to
- 11:07Speaker 4: go out there and play well against the team that
- 11:09Speaker 4: got rid of you. Although obviously you have no control
- 11:12Speaker 4: over your team's offense and whatever, but the money's indicating
- 11:16Speaker 4: towards Winnipeg. You know, Maybe that is the correct way
- 11:22Speaker 4: to look here. I think Pittsburgh could overlook this game.
- 11:26Speaker 4: I know Winnipeg's not that good, though. Winnipeg on a
- 11:28Speaker 4: back-to-back is somewhat ugly as well, but early in the season,
- 11:31Speaker 4: it's a little bit less bad, but still a third
- 11:33Speaker 4: game in four days in different cities. I don't like that.
- 11:37Speaker 4: And the oddsmakers are jacking up the price for that reason, too, though.
- 11:40Speaker 4: You know what I mean? That's also part of the
- 11:42Speaker 4: reason why Pittsburgh is favored that heavily is because the
- 11:45Speaker 4: oddsmakers know it's a back-to-back for Winnipeg, so they've escalated
- 11:50Speaker 4: the price on Pittsburgh even a little bit more. But
- 11:52Speaker 4: that probably means you're not getting any value on Pittsburgh here.
- 11:56Speaker 4: I don't know. Those are my thoughts on that. The
- 11:58Speaker 4: market is saying Winnipeg. Maybe that is the right way
- 12:00Speaker 4: to look there. If I was going to play any game, though,
- 12:03Speaker 4: I would play Dallas here against San Jose. I mean,
- 12:06Speaker 4: first look at this. You have a 2-0 San Jose team,
- 12:09Speaker 4: 0-2 Dallas, yet Dallas is a significant favorite here. Well, obviously,
- 12:14Speaker 4: the oddsmakers know Dallas is still the better of these
- 12:16Speaker 4: two teams here. Even if I think San Jose is
- 12:20Speaker 4: sort of an upstart team, and that they're going to
- 12:22Speaker 4: be good this year. If I was going to play
- 12:24Speaker 4: any hockey game today, I would take Dallas here. I
- 12:27Speaker 4: would make a minus one puck line out of this thing. Um,
- 12:31Speaker 4: you know, hat, like put half the bet on the
- 12:32Speaker 4: minus one and a half or however it works out, uh,
- 12:36Speaker 4: to make the minus one, you know what I mean? Put, uh,
- 12:39Speaker 4: some of the bet on the money line and the
- 12:40Speaker 4: rest of it on the, uh, minus one and a
- 12:42Speaker 4: half puck line is what I mean. Um, Just the
- 12:45Speaker 4: fact that Dallas is 0-2 and yet they're a big
- 12:48Speaker 4: favorite over 2-0. Just like I said in the NFL,
- 12:51Speaker 4: that's usually where you want to look because the records
- 12:53Speaker 4: can be misleading. Dallas is still the better team until
- 12:56Speaker 4: further notice. San Jose is coming off two nice wins here.
- 12:59Speaker 4: They beat Florida on their first game in overtime. Then
- 13:03Speaker 4: they beat the Kings by one. That was another big
- 13:05Speaker 4: win for San Jose. An in-state rival, if you will,
- 13:10Speaker 4: against LA. Big win for San Jose there. Now this
- 13:13Speaker 4: is going to be their first road game of the season.
- 13:15Speaker 4: Sometimes that's difficult, even though I think starting a road
- 13:19Speaker 4: trip usually is a focus spot, and I'm not saying
- 13:21Speaker 4: San Jose is going to overlook Dallas. Obviously they won't.
- 13:24Speaker 4: It's a big game here, right? Like San Jose will
- 13:27Speaker 4: have focus. It's just a matter of it's tough to
- 13:31Speaker 4: play your first road game. It's tough to have to
- 13:34Speaker 4: step up in class like this when you've won two
- 13:36Speaker 4: pretty big games already, having to maintain that effort for
- 13:39Speaker 4: yet another game. San Jose might wind up falling short here,
- 13:42Speaker 4: and they're going to be facing a Dallas team that
- 13:45Speaker 4: really needs to win. They're coming off an ugly loss
- 13:47Speaker 4: to the Predators, one of the worst names of any
- 13:50Speaker 4: team that you'll ever see. Dallas, embarrassing start to the season,
- 13:54Speaker 4: losing 4-0 at home to St. Louis and then losing
- 13:57Speaker 4: to Nashville as well. And that St. Louis loss was
- 14:00Speaker 4: their only home game so far, so the only home game,
- 14:04Speaker 4: a shutout loss. You've got to think they're going to
- 14:06Speaker 4: want to perform better than that. Dallas is playing a
- 14:08Speaker 4: third game in four days, which is somewhat difficult with
- 14:11Speaker 4: travel between all of them. But the travel from Dallas
- 14:14Speaker 4: to Nashville and then back is not really that bad. Dallas,
- 14:18Speaker 4: to me, it seems like a game they're going to
- 14:20Speaker 4: get up for. So I would play Dallas in that one.
- 14:23Speaker 4: And that's the only play that I would make in
- 14:25Speaker 4: hockey if I was going to make any. I'm not
- 14:27Speaker 4: doing it, but that would be the one that I
- 14:29Speaker 4: would do. All right. American League continues in the divisional
- 14:34Speaker 4: series in baseball here. With White Sox-Cleveland, the White Sox
- 14:38Speaker 4: are up 1-0 here. I still am not really buying
- 14:42Speaker 4: the White Sox here, man. Cleveland is the better pitching team,
- 14:45Speaker 4: as I keep saying. Better bullpen as well, though both
- 14:48Speaker 4: bullpens are okay. I think Cleveland has the better starting
- 14:51Speaker 4: pitcher in this game, but Cleveland also does not have
- 14:53Speaker 4: the better offense. Their offense is the worst out of
- 14:56Speaker 4: all the playoff teams. What do we do with this? Well,
- 15:01Speaker 4: because Cleveland's a bad offense and a good pitching team,
- 15:03Speaker 4: I mean... It makes sense to think about the under
- 15:06Speaker 4: in pretty much every one of their games. Maybe that's
- 15:09Speaker 4: the case here too. Cleveland got shut out in the
- 15:12Speaker 4: first game, so it could be a bounce-back spot for
- 15:14Speaker 4: Cleveland perhaps here. They really can't afford to go down
- 15:17Speaker 4: 0-2 and have to go on the road here, you
- 15:19Speaker 4: know what I mean? But I also keep pointing back
- 15:21Speaker 4: to the fact that this White Sox team is not experienced.
- 15:24Speaker 4: Cleveland has a lot of guys that have playoff experience
- 15:27Speaker 4: at this point, including their starting pitcher here in this game.
- 15:30Speaker 4: So Cleveland, you've got to think Will– be able to
- 15:34Speaker 4: step it up for this game, at least to some extent.
- 15:37Speaker 4: Let me see what Williams' postseason stats are here. I
- 15:40Speaker 4: want to look. Gavin Williams, he has a 3.24 postseason ERA.
- 15:46Speaker 4: He's 0-1, but his ERA 3.24, yeah, in the postseason,
- 15:50Speaker 4: that's not bad. So I think Williams should be able
- 15:53Speaker 4: to pitch pretty well here. But looking at this game
- 15:56Speaker 4: as a whole here, These teams had yesterday off, so
- 16:00Speaker 4: that means the bullpen's arrested, and the offense is going
- 16:03Speaker 4: to cool off a little bit. So that has me
- 16:05Speaker 4: also kind of leaning towards an under in this game
- 16:08Speaker 4: just because I like playing unders when teams had yesterday off.
- 16:12Speaker 4: Anthony Kaye pitching for the White Sox. Him pitching in
- 16:15Speaker 4: game two for them, yeah, that's not a great sign
- 16:17Speaker 4: because he's not that good. 4.44 ERA, 1.37 whip. He
- 16:20Speaker 4: was not good on the road. 5.25 road ERA. So
- 16:27Speaker 4: his home road splits don't line up well. His last
- 16:30Speaker 4: two appearances that he made were both in the postseason.
- 16:34Speaker 4: He pitched only a little bit, so I don't really
- 16:37Speaker 4: know what the White Sox are going to do with
- 16:38Speaker 4: him here. He pitched two days ago, so it seems
- 16:41Speaker 4: like he's not going to make a full start here. Like,
- 16:43Speaker 4: it seems like he's going to open the game, and
- 16:46Speaker 4: then it's going to be another bullpen game for the
- 16:48Speaker 4: White Sox here, it looks like. So, you know, I
- 16:50Speaker 4: think that might be a problem for them, even though K,
- 16:53Speaker 4: I mean, he hasn't allowed a run yet in two
- 16:55Speaker 4: innings as a– starter here, but he also has two
- 16:59Speaker 4: walks and no strikeouts. He's not exactly pitching well. However,
- 17:03Speaker 4: he does do well against Cleveland. I mean, they're not
- 17:05Speaker 4: a good offense, and they just have not had success
- 17:07Speaker 4: against him. They have 63 at-bats against him, 190 average,
- 17:11Speaker 4: 483 OPS, 10-6 strikeout walk ratio. That ratio's not good,
- 17:16Speaker 4: but the rest of those numbers are pretty good, so
- 17:18Speaker 4: Kay might be able to do okay while he's in there.
- 17:20Speaker 4: I would not trust him over Gavin Williams, though. I mean,
- 17:24Speaker 4: Kay is the worst of these two pitchers, I think, certainly.
- 17:27Speaker 4: The matchup numbers are good for both pitchers, but Kay
- 17:30Speaker 4: is bad on the road. Williams has more playoff experience,
- 17:34Speaker 4: and Williams is the better pitcher here. Williams had a
- 17:36Speaker 4: really good season, 3.76 ERA, 1.11 whip. He was excellent
- 17:41Speaker 4: at home. His home road splits are actually pretty extreme,
- 17:44Speaker 4: and he was way better at home, 2.84 home ERA.
- 17:47Speaker 4: So pitching him at home makes sense for Cleveland. They're
- 17:51Speaker 4: going to try to pitch him twice at home here.
- 17:53Speaker 4: Finished the season on a bad note. against Kansas City,
- 17:57Speaker 4: but he hasn't pitched since then. Now, a lot of
- 17:59Speaker 4: times I'll think that, well, maybe a pitcher will be
- 18:01Speaker 4: thrown off because they're off schedule because they haven't pitched
- 18:03Speaker 4: in so long. I don't think that's going to be
- 18:05Speaker 4: the case with him. I think the fact that he
- 18:07Speaker 4: had a bad start to end the season, I think
- 18:09Speaker 4: he's going to want to get back out there and
- 18:10Speaker 4: pitch well. He's been good at home, and that last
- 18:13Speaker 4: start was on the road. Against the White Sox, he's
- 18:16Speaker 4: been good. He's held them to a. 214 batting average,.
- 18:17Speaker 4: 589 OPS, 98 career at-bats here, 33-11 strikeout walk ratio.
- 18:25Speaker 4: good numbers really across the board. The walks may be
- 18:27Speaker 4: a little bit too high, but Williams, he's been really
- 18:30Speaker 4: good this year. He's been a really good strikeout pitcher
- 18:33Speaker 4: this year. It's been the best year of his career. Um,
- 18:36Speaker 4: so I think Williams actually does have the upper hand here.
- 18:38Speaker 4: I like, uh, Cleveland in this one, but I do
- 18:42Speaker 4: also still like the under in this game as well. Um,
- 18:45Speaker 4: I just think even if, even if the white socks
- 18:47Speaker 4: are kind of going with a bullpen game, everybody's rested,
- 18:50Speaker 4: they'll be able to mix and match. So, um, you know,
- 18:54Speaker 4: the white socks might be able to hold Cleveland's offense down.
- 18:57Speaker 4: Although I still think maybe Cleveland on the side is
- 18:59Speaker 4: the better way to look here. Although you're laying a
- 19:01Speaker 4: big price here, minus one 50, something you'd have to
- 19:04Speaker 4: make a minus one run line out of this. And
- 19:06Speaker 4: that's difficult to do when you know, you're backing a
- 19:09Speaker 4: team that can't score like Cleveland, 56% of tickets, 65%
- 19:13Speaker 4: of the cash on them. So the money seems to
- 19:16Speaker 4: be in agreement here with Cleveland. I don't know, man. Uh, Yeah,
- 19:22Speaker 4: I lean Cleveland as well. I think Williams is preferable
- 19:25Speaker 4: to a White Sox bullpen game, and I think the
- 19:27Speaker 4: Cleveland bullpen is also a little bit better than Chicago's.
- 19:30Speaker 4: So I think Cleveland's pitching is better throughout this game.
- 19:33Speaker 4: The full game total has basically been 6.5 this whole time.
- 19:37Speaker 4: It's a playoff total. We have 6.5 in both games today.
- 19:41Speaker 4: I still think the under does make sense in this one, though.
- 19:44Speaker 4: We have 68% of tickets, 72% of the cash on
- 19:46Speaker 4: the over. I'd be leaning under, though. I mean, you're
- 19:48Speaker 4: talking about Cleveland. It's going to be a cool weather
- 19:51Speaker 4: game there both pitchers have good matchup numbers though I
- 19:55Speaker 4: know K is probably not going to be in the
- 19:56Speaker 4: game that long but Cleveland's offense is also awful so
- 20:01Speaker 4: yeah that game to me looks like an under as
- 20:03Speaker 4: well I am going to give out a play in
- 20:05Speaker 4: the other game here And, you know, like I said before,
- 20:13Speaker 4: I did it once before, which is backing Kim Schlittler
- 20:16Speaker 4: on the road at Tampa Bay. I think we should
- 20:19Speaker 4: do it again here. The Yankees are about minus 125 here.
- 20:22Speaker 4: There are a lot of reasons to do this. This
- 20:23Speaker 4: is a cheap price to back Schlittler, and he's the
- 20:26Speaker 4: better pitcher here, and he does have some postseason experience now.
- 20:29Speaker 4: So I think we should do it. We backed him
- 20:32Speaker 4: in Tampa Bay in the middle of the season, if
- 20:35Speaker 4: you remember, when Tampa was returning home from a road trip.
- 20:37Speaker 4: And I liked the spot there. It was close, but
- 20:40Speaker 4: we got the win in that one. And I think
- 20:42Speaker 4: we'll be able to get the win here at this
- 20:44Speaker 4: one too, even though I'm rooting against the Yankees, dude.
- 20:47Speaker 4: I do not want the Yankees to win, obviously. And
- 20:50Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is a really good home team. There's no
- 20:52Speaker 4: doubt about that. I don't fade Tampa Bay as a
- 20:55Speaker 4: home team lightly here. They're really good at home. But
- 20:58Speaker 4: the Yankees are a pretty good road team as well.
- 21:00Speaker 4: Yankees are down 0-1 here. They're going to have to win.
- 21:04Speaker 4: If they fall down 0-2, they're going to be in
- 21:06Speaker 4: some trouble here. even though this is only a five-game series. Yeah,
- 21:11Speaker 4: that's right. These are five-game series. So if you're down
- 21:13Speaker 4: 0-2 in a five-game series, yeah, you're not in good
- 21:15Speaker 4: shape here. I think they will get this one. I'm
- 21:19Speaker 4: going to go full game on this, too, because I
- 21:21Speaker 4: think they have the better bullpen as well. So we
- 21:22Speaker 4: have two rested bullpens here. Both bullpens are good, but
- 21:26Speaker 4: the Yankees' bullpen's better. Tampa Bay has the better offense,
- 21:30Speaker 4: I would say. Yankees still without Judge, I'm pretty sure.
- 21:33Speaker 4: It's more of a mediocre offense from them, but... Tampa
- 21:37Speaker 4: Bay is kind of a small ball offense. I don't
- 21:39Speaker 4: see them doing much against Cam Schlittler. 1.95 ERA,. 92 whip.
- 21:45Speaker 4: I'm not worried about his innings pitched at this point.
- 21:47Speaker 4: I'm not worried about his lack of postseason experience because
- 21:51Speaker 4: he's made multiple postseason starts at this point between last
- 21:54Speaker 4: year and this year. I'm not worried about it. And
- 21:57Speaker 4: Schlittler was awesome on the road this year. 1.16 road
- 22:00Speaker 4: ERA with a 153 opponent batting average. And that was
- 22:04Speaker 4: where he had more of a sample size, he was
- 22:06Speaker 4: completely dominant on the road, he was dominant in the
- 22:09Speaker 4: wild card series against the Red Sox, he's been good
- 22:12Speaker 4: against Tampa Bay throughout his career, they have 82 at
- 22:15Speaker 4: bats against him, 244 average, 592 OPS, 26 to 5
- 22:20Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, so Schlittler has definitely had the upper
- 22:23Speaker 4: hand against Tampa Bay, he pitches better on the road,
- 22:27Speaker 4: so yeah, they're You can find pretty much every reason
- 22:31Speaker 4: to back him here. And there are definitely some reasons
- 22:33Speaker 4: to fade Freddy Peralta. He was pitching for Tampa Bay here.
- 22:36Speaker 4: Didn't have a very good season. 4.42 ERA, 1.33 whip.
- 22:41Speaker 4: Although he got traded from the Mets, and he's definitely
- 22:44Speaker 4: pitched better with Tampa Bay. He's been better. There's no
- 22:47Speaker 4: doubt about that. He was pretty good. He was really good, actually,
- 22:50Speaker 4: in this past month. Tampa Bay, in fact, has actually
- 22:53Speaker 4: won six of his starts in a row. And he
- 22:55Speaker 4: had a. 96 ERA. in the month of september however
- 23:00Speaker 4: his walk rate was still not really that good in
- 23:02Speaker 4: september and he didn't go that deep into his last
- 23:05Speaker 4: few outings here he's definitely he was pitching well he
- 23:08Speaker 4: was definitely pitching well but i think having a break
- 23:10Speaker 4: might disrupt his momentum a little bit he hasn't pitched
- 23:13Speaker 4: since september september 25th so i think schlittler actually has
- 23:17Speaker 4: a little bit of edge in the fact that he
- 23:19Speaker 4: pitched in the wild card series because he got to
- 23:21Speaker 4: maintain his schedule you know what i mean so i
- 23:23Speaker 4: think that's going to give him an upper hand like
- 23:24Speaker 4: i said with uh San Diego yesterday, that was Michael
- 23:30Speaker 4: King yesterday, right? San Diego blew that game, man. That
- 23:33Speaker 4: was crazy. San Diego losing that game. They've lost both
- 23:36Speaker 4: games in crazy fashion, with France having a home run
- 23:39Speaker 4: taken away by the Rafters, and then Mason Miller, I believe,
- 23:44Speaker 4: did not have a postseason walk in his career, and
- 23:47Speaker 4: he walked the bases loaded in yesterday's game, and they
- 23:50Speaker 4: gave up a single that won the game from Churrio
- 23:54Speaker 4: with two outs there. in the bottom of the ninth.
- 23:56Speaker 4: That was insane, dude. Unbelievable. But anyway, I still think
- 24:01Speaker 4: it is the case, like King did pitch well yesterday,
- 24:03Speaker 4: and I still think it is the case that Freddy
- 24:04Speaker 4: Peralta might be thrown off a little bit by not
- 24:08Speaker 4: having pitched since late September. He's off schedule now a
- 24:12Speaker 4: little bit. And the clincher here is he's not really
- 24:14Speaker 4: that good against the Yankees. 113 at-bats, 39-16 strikeout walk
- 24:17Speaker 4: ratio is not that impressive. 248 batting average allowed is fine,
- 24:23Speaker 4: but an 872 OPS is not that good, so the Yankees,
- 24:27Speaker 4: this is without judge, by the way, the Yankees have
- 24:29Speaker 4: been able to hit him for power, so I think
- 24:32Speaker 4: the Yankees should be able to do something against Freddie here,
- 24:36Speaker 4: now Peralta was better at home, he's definitely in the
- 24:38Speaker 4: better home road split, 3.53 home ERA, but Schlittler's road
- 24:42Speaker 4: ERA's won something, so you know, Schlittler still is the
- 24:47Speaker 4: better pitcher with those home road splits, so Yeah, I
- 24:50Speaker 4: hate it, but unfortunately we're going to play the Yankees
- 24:53Speaker 4: here in this one. I think they have the upper hand,
- 24:56Speaker 4: down 0-1 with their best pitcher on the mound here.
- 24:59Speaker 4: I think they got the pitching edge throughout this game,
- 25:01Speaker 4: so Yankees will be my play. Both these games are
- 25:04Speaker 4: on TBS and TruTV. And then we have the one
- 25:07Speaker 4: NFL game, which I already gave out my play on this,
- 25:09Speaker 4: but we are on the New Orleans Saints. The price
- 25:12Speaker 4: has gone down to minus 1.5, so you can get
- 25:14Speaker 4: it at a cheaper price, or you can play a
- 25:16Speaker 4: money line on this too if you really want to.
- 25:19Speaker 4: The money seems like it's kind of disagreeing with me
- 25:22Speaker 4: on this in a way, although we see 63% of tickets,
- 25:25Speaker 4: 64% of the cash on New Orleans right now. New
- 25:28Speaker 4: Orleans looks like the public side, which I really don't
- 25:30Speaker 4: like seeing. The spread and the money line have both
- 25:35Speaker 4: dropped towards the Atlanta side. I don't get it, man.
- 25:39Speaker 4: I don't. Even though I know Atlanta has extra rest here,
- 25:43Speaker 4: you could not possibly look better than Atlanta did. in
- 25:46Speaker 4: that game against Green Bay. And now they're playing another
- 25:48Speaker 4: road game. They're playing a third road game in four weeks. Yes,
- 25:52Speaker 4: Atlanta's better with Penix behind center. There's no doubt about that.
- 25:56Speaker 4: But I think everybody's going to overreact to that. Like,
- 25:58Speaker 4: oh my God, now Penix is back. Atlanta's actually a
- 26:01Speaker 4: good team. I think people are going to massively overreact
- 26:04Speaker 4: to that. They looked great on Thursday night. Killed the Packers.
- 26:07Speaker 4: Everybody saw that game. Packers, I believe, won yesterday too.
- 26:11Speaker 4: So people will respect that win a little bit more.
- 26:15Speaker 4: I don't like it, man. Whenever you have a team
- 26:17Speaker 4: that had a high-profile win like that in an isolated
- 26:21Speaker 4: game that everybody saw, I think it's a bad thing.
- 26:24Speaker 4: And the fact they have extra rest I actually think
- 26:26Speaker 4: is a negative. Like I talk about with buys. I
- 26:28Speaker 4: think when you have extra rest and you're just kind
- 26:30Speaker 4: of letting that win simmer, I think that's not a
- 26:32Speaker 4: good thing. I think, you know, you could... Yeah, like
- 26:37Speaker 4: that could potentially make you overconfident. And the fact that
- 26:40Speaker 4: Atlanta beat the Saints both games last year, which I've
- 26:43Speaker 4: already talked about, That might make Atlanta overconfident as well.
- 26:46Speaker 4: Could possibly overlook the Saints a little bit here. The
- 26:49Speaker 4: Saints will not overlook them. The Saints, double revenge spot
- 26:53Speaker 4: for them here, which I think is a big deal.
- 26:55Speaker 4: Saints back at home here. I think the crowd will
- 26:57Speaker 4: show up for a Monday night game. It'll be loud
- 27:00Speaker 4: in the Superdome. The Saints, they're a 1-2 team, but
- 27:04Speaker 4: their resume looks pretty good here, man. They almost won
- 27:08Speaker 4: at the Lions, although I know the Lions lost last night.
- 27:11Speaker 4: At Carolina, the Lions, they're still a really good offensive team.
- 27:14Speaker 4: We know this. New Orleans was able to hang with them,
- 27:17Speaker 4: and then New Orleans upset the Ravens on the road.
- 27:20Speaker 4: Ravens are a strong team, man. So New Orleans, I
- 27:23Speaker 4: know you could poke at their defense not being that good,
- 27:26Speaker 4: but I think it's better than you think. This New
- 27:29Speaker 4: Orleans defense has been kind of an under-the-radar defense, and
- 27:32Speaker 4: the fact that they allowed 31 in overtime, remember, they
- 27:36Speaker 4: held Detroit to 24 in regulation. That's not bad. Detroit
- 27:40Speaker 4: is an elite offense. That's not a bad defensive performance.
- 27:43Speaker 4: And then they held the Ravens to 17. How is
- 27:46Speaker 4: that at all bad? That's not bad at all. Ravens
- 27:49Speaker 4: are a really good offense too. And the Saints held
- 27:53Speaker 4: them down. That's a good sign. And then it looks
- 27:54Speaker 4: like they were really bad defensively against the Raiders. But
- 27:57Speaker 4: I already talked about that game. That was a game
- 28:00Speaker 4: that the Saints were winning 27-19 or something like that
- 28:04Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter. And the Saints... had a historic
- 28:07Speaker 4: fourth quarter meltdown, and they had four straight turnovers in
- 28:11Speaker 4: the fourth quarter, which I believe is something that's never
- 28:13Speaker 4: happened in NFL history. That's how they lost that game.
- 28:16Speaker 4: It's the most bullshit loss that you could ever think of, right?
- 28:20Speaker 4: And I told you the Raiders would not win yesterday either,
- 28:22Speaker 4: although they somehow backed or covered that. So I got
- 28:26Speaker 4: the Chiefs wrong in my pick-em pools yesterday. Probably should
- 28:30Speaker 4: have been a winner with the Chiefs. They were up
- 28:31Speaker 4: by 11 in the fourth quarter, but whatever. Raiders scored
- 28:35Speaker 4: and got a two-point conversion to get within that number
- 28:37Speaker 4: at the end. You know, whatever. Anyway, New Orleans, I
- 28:44Speaker 4: think that's a misleading loss because of how that game ended.
- 28:47Speaker 4: Four straight turnovers to lose that game. Completely ridiculous, man.
- 28:51Speaker 4: And Shuck, it was not interceptions from Shuck, really. He
- 28:53Speaker 4: threw one, but he still had a really good game.
- 28:56Speaker 4: I think Shuck is actually good. New Orleans did out-game
- 28:59Speaker 4: the Raiders in this game. They won the game statistically.
- 29:03Speaker 4: They should have won. Like I said, they were winning.
- 29:05Speaker 4: That was the third quarter. They were winning by 11
- 29:07Speaker 4: in the third quarter, my mistake. That's what it was. Yeah,
- 29:12Speaker 4: and then they just turned it over a bunch of times.
- 29:15Speaker 4: An epic meltdown. I think it's a bounce back for
- 29:17Speaker 4: New Orleans. I think New Orleans is sitting at 1-2.
- 29:19Speaker 4: I think they're not as bad as they look. The
- 29:22Speaker 4: oddsmakers are telling you Atlanta is actually the slightly better
- 29:25Speaker 4: team here. Yeah, I mean, maybe they are, but I
- 29:28Speaker 4: think it's close, man. I think it's close between these
- 29:30Speaker 4: two teams and Atlanta. We still don't really know what
- 29:33Speaker 4: Atlanta really is. Is Penix really that good? I mean,
- 29:36Speaker 4: Atlanta's quarterback situation looked really, really bad. and now all
- 29:40Speaker 4: of a sudden one game from Pennix where they looked
- 29:42Speaker 4: really good on a Thursday night and now it's oh
- 29:44Speaker 4: this Atlanta team is like unbeatable I'm not buying it
- 29:48Speaker 4: I don't know and Atlanta does play the Ravens next
- 29:51Speaker 4: in another primetime game but I don't think they're going
- 29:53Speaker 4: to look ahead to that I do think both teams
- 29:55Speaker 4: will show up for this but I think it's yeah
- 29:58Speaker 4: I like the Saints here A battle of two young
- 30:01Speaker 4: quarterbacks here in this one. We'll see. I think Shuck
- 30:04Speaker 4: might be the better of the two quarterbacks. I have
- 30:06Speaker 4: a Shuck jersey, actually. What the fuck is wrong with me?
- 30:08Speaker 4: I should be wearing it here. I don't want to
- 30:10Speaker 4: jinx them, though, but we are on the Saints in
- 30:12Speaker 4: this one. We better get it right, man, because the
- 30:15Speaker 4: market read is going to wind up disagreeing with me,
- 30:17Speaker 4: and I am not thrilled about that whatsoever. But I
- 30:20Speaker 4: disagreed with the market read on the Panthers last night,
- 30:22Speaker 4: and they were pretty clearly the correct side. Anyway. And
- 30:28Speaker 4: Bryce Young got me another fantasy win, 4-0, baby. My
- 30:31Speaker 4: opponent had CeeDee Lamb and had the indie kicker who
- 30:35Speaker 4: had 16 points in fantasy and had Puka Nakua in
- 30:40Speaker 4: a flex spot, and I still beat him. So there
- 30:45Speaker 4: you go. I was worried because I had benched Burrow
- 30:48Speaker 4: for Bryce Young because I was like, I've got to
- 30:49Speaker 4: play Bryce Young against the Detroit defense in a primetime game.
- 30:53Speaker 4: Burrow had a pretty good game. especially in the second half.
- 30:56Speaker 4: I'm like, oh shit. Um, and I think maybe he did, uh,
- 30:59Speaker 4: outscore young by maybe one or two points, but young
- 31:02Speaker 4: had a good game. He was good. It was good
- 31:03Speaker 4: enough to get me the, uh, the wind. So I'm
- 31:05Speaker 4: happy about that. That's going to do it, man. The
- 31:08Speaker 4: place today are the Yankees on the money line. We're
- 31:11Speaker 4: joining the public side on both games, but it is
- 31:14Speaker 4: what it is. Although I'm, I wouldn't think the public
- 31:16Speaker 4: would be on new Orleans. That's the thing. Like Why
- 31:19Speaker 4: would the public be on the team that just lost
- 31:21Speaker 4: to the Raiders? Although I guess the public kind of
- 31:23Speaker 4: respects the Raiders right now. But why would the public
- 31:25Speaker 4: be off of Atlanta when we saw what Atlanta just did?
- 31:28Speaker 4: You know what I mean? A team that does what
- 31:30Speaker 4: Atlanta just did, the public is usually all over that team.
- 31:33Speaker 4: So I don't know why they're not, but I'm just
- 31:34Speaker 4: going based on my situational read here, man. And the
- 31:37Speaker 4: fact that I think New Orleans has a really good-looking
- 31:41Speaker 4: resume for a 1-2 team. You know what I mean?
- 31:43Speaker 4: There's nothing that really looks bad in their resume so
- 31:47Speaker 4: far at all. So They face a tough schedule. So
- 31:51Speaker 4: this is a tough game, too. It's a divisional game. But, yeah,
- 31:54Speaker 4: I'm going to roll with New Orleans there. That's going
- 31:56Speaker 4: to do it. Learn a tone on Twitter. Learn a
- 31:58Speaker 4: tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Let's
- 32:01Speaker 4: get back on track here, man. 2-0 would be really
- 32:03Speaker 4: nice here, although I'm going to celebrate still if the
- 32:06Speaker 4: Yankees lose. I'm going to root against my own play, probably.
- 32:12Speaker 4: I have to not be biased. That's the title of
- 32:14Speaker 4: the show. If you want to win money, you've got
- 32:16Speaker 4: to avoid all biases. You've got to play against your
- 32:18Speaker 4: own team when it's appropriate. You've got to play on
- 32:21Speaker 4: teams that you hate when it's appropriate. It's the way
- 32:24Speaker 4: that it is, man. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
- 32:27Speaker 3: Comment.
- 32:28Speaker 4: Hype it up. Listen, all that stuff. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
- 32:34Speaker 4: That all helps. We got Losercast tomorrow, Tuesday night. And
- 32:42Speaker 4: what else is there? Oh, Covered in Uke, my ukulele
- 32:45Speaker 4: channel on YouTube. And patreon.com slash learn to tote if
- 32:50Speaker 4: you want to support me that way. And I was
- 32:52Speaker 4: on Tommy Borum's show yesterday. If you didn't see that,
- 32:55Speaker 4: you can check it out. It was fun. We went
- 32:57Speaker 4: longer than I think he had planned because I just
- 32:59Speaker 4: kept talking, but he let me talk. We talked about
- 33:03Speaker 4: some interesting places. I got into my true crime rabbit
- 33:08Speaker 4: hole shit, and we talked about a whole bunch of
- 33:10Speaker 4: different things. You can check that out on America Floats,
- 33:14Speaker 4: I think is the name of his show.
- 33:16Speaker 1: Whatever.
- 33:16Speaker 4: I retweeted it on Twitter at least, but I think
- 33:20Speaker 4: it was on multiple different platforms. I think he goes
- 33:22Speaker 4: to YouTube, Rumble.com. All that type of stuff. So you'll
- 33:26Speaker 4: be able to find it somewhere. That's going to do it.
- 33:28Speaker 4: Dirty Sock, thanks for hanging out. Happy Monday. I'm not happy,
- 33:32Speaker 4: but it is a Monday.
- 33:35Speaker 1: Peace.
- 33:37Speaker 4: Whoops. I had to bring the screen share down. Peace.
- 33:45Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
- 33:49Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
- 33:53Speaker 2: You do not have.
- 33:55Speaker 3: To lose this round alone.
- 34:02Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
- 34:06Speaker 1: Not tonight.
- 34:08Speaker 2: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
- 34:18Speaker 2: out That bad luck bites hard But it don't get
- 34:25Speaker 2: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
- 34:36Speaker 2: Hold on, hold
- 34:39Speaker 1: On You're still here now guitar solo