Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 47: Can Mary Peltola flip Alaska? Can Ashley Hinson hold Iowa?

Transcript

Episode 47: Can Mary Peltola flip Alaska? Can Ashley Hinson hold Iowa? · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

• 0:01
  [music]
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_02: I'm your host, Geoffrey Skelley, the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: Today we're going to bring in a couple more experts,
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: a couple reporters on the ground who are following important races in two of
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_02: the pivotal states in the 2026 midterms.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: Alaska and Iowa.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: So in the first part of this episode,
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to speak with James Brooks,
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: who is a veteran political journalist in Alaska.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_02: He's currently the state reporter for the Alaska Beacon up there.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_02: He's situated out of Juneau.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_02: And we're going to talk about mainly the Alaska Senate race,
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_02: but also talk a little bit about the, frankly, undercovered Alaska governor's race.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: the Alaska Senate race is an important piece of the puzzle for control of the U.S.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Senate.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: It's a seat that Democrats at this point in our forecast,
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: it looks like a kind of seat that they probably need to flip if they're going
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: to find a path to a majority.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_02: But it is part of a larger group of seats that includes states like Texas and Ohio and Iowa.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: As as sort of key swing states or at least battleground states that are red leaning
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: that quartet that Democrats need to be competitive in,
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_02: along with blue leaning Maine, where Susan Collins is trying to hold on.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: So definitely part of the sort of key fundamental states in the Senate battleground.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: And then in the second part, I talk
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: to Brianne Pfannenstiel, the chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: She's covered Iowa since the mid-2010s.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: And so she is a very knowledgeable person about what's going on in the Hawkeye State.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: And so I'm going to speak with her about what's happening in the Senate race,
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_02: an open Senate seat there with Joni Ernst retiring.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_02: And then also the governor's race where Democrats look favored.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: And so Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee there, might vote.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: Be the first Democrat to win the governorship in Iowa since 2006.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: So please check out both parts.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_02: So let's first jump into Alaska with James.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_02: So to start out with,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: we're going to talk about Alaska,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm very excited to welcome James Brooks to the podcast.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: James is the state reporter for the Alaska Beacon,
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_02: and he's covered politics in the last frontier for many years.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_02: And so we're going to talk a little bit about what's going on in a pivotal U.S.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: Senate race and then talk for a little bit about the governor's race,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_02: which honestly,
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_02: with all the attention on the race for Congress,
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_02: may have flown under the radar for some folks.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_02: But it's a very competitive race and you actually might see Democrats in a position
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_02: to win the governorship in Alaska for the first time in nearly a quarter century.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_02: So with that, James, thanks for thanks for joining me on the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for inviting me.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: We don't get a lot of attention up here in Alaska frequently.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I feel like that's well,
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: that's like undeserved, like you guys should be getting a little bit more.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_02: And and, you know, here we are with a competitive Senate race.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's obviously the thing that from a national audience is
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: the thing that's getting the most attention.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_02: And you've got Republican Senator Dan Sullivan seeking reelection.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: And former Representative Mary Peltola as his main Democratic challenger.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_02: We can talk a little bit more about there are a couple other candidates on the ballot.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_02: But I wanted to sort of start out by getting your sort of your initial take on
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: on sort of the state of the race and what's going on in like Alaskan politics
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_02: and how how the candidates sort of play into that.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's worth knowing that 60 percent of registered voters in the state
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: of Alaska are registered independents.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: They're either nonpartisan or I believe
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_02: that's number one.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think they're number one on that front in terms of percentage
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: of independent
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: states of party registration.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: It can be a little misleading,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: though, because even though they're not registered, they do tend to vote Republican.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: We see that in the presidential elections, especially since 1964.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: Alaska has voted Republican for president every year.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: And so you got to take that independence with a grain of salt.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: But we do see it show up in lower races,
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: even in lower statewide races,
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: particularly for U.S.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: House and U.S. Senate, where Alaskans have been willing to vote for a Democrat.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: In recent history.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: So that's something to keep in mind.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: Geographically, rural Alaska tends to vote Democratic.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's an inverse of what happens in much of the rest of the country because of
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: the large Alaska Native population,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: the large non-white population in rural Alaska tends to drive that.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Urban Alaska,
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: particularly suburban,
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: ex-urban,
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: the Matanuska-Susitna Borough north of Anchorage is a Republican hotspot,
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: as is the Kenai Peninsula Borough south of Anchorage.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: Anchorage is the largest city in Alaska, about 300,000 people.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's about 40% of the state's population.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's really where most of the votes are coming from in the state.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: The Mat-Su north of Anchorage,
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: Anchorage itself,
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: and then the Kenai Borough, that's about 60 to 70% of your votes statewide.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Farther north in Fairbanks, that tends to be split.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: Or Republican-leaning, depending on which part of Fairbanks you're talking about.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: Fairbanks is the second city, the Chicago to Anchorage's New York, perhaps.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: And it's a lot grittier, more industrial up in Fairbanks.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: And then down here in Southeast Alaska, That's your Democratic, heavily Democratic area.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: Where I'm coming from in the state capital is one of the most Democratic precincts
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: in the entire state.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: So along the coast,
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: you see a lot of moderate Republicans and Democrats,
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: both because of fishing and government work.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then as you go into interior Alaska,
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: where you have oil workers,
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: you have miners,
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: And retirees, that's where you see a lot of your Republican support.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and just for folks who are listening,
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_02: people who are watching will see,
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_02: as you were talking, I was like, oh, I should probably bring up a map.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: So I brought up a map of Alaska,
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: the 2024 first choice vote in the U.S. House race, which involved Mary Peltola.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: She ended up losing narrowly to Nick Begich in the ranked choice voting, Nick Begich III.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: I should specify, we're an Alaska pod.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: I need to specify that there wasn't Nick Begich I.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Who was elected to the U.S. House.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_02: Who was elected to the U.S.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_02: House and then tragically disappeared on a plane flight with the,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: was it the House Whip?
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_02: Boggs.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_02: Hale Boggs.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, in the early 1970s.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, there are all sorts of stories.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_02: God, there's so many tragedies with planes in Alaska.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: It's very much wild.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_02: Involving politicians or loved ones.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Mary Peltola's husband.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, Mary Peltola's husband and then Ted Stevens.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: After he left office.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: But he also,
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_02: yeah, I mean,
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_02: just anyway,
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_02: just that's a that's a whole other side really helping my fear of flying.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, yeah.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely helps mine.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Trust me.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, I'm sure.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_02: I was like, yeah, what am I saying?
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not the one who's a reporter covering Alaska and having to fly fly all over the place.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_02: So.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_02: But, you know,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_02: I also thought it'd be worth mentioning just at the start,
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_02: just talk a little bit about,
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_02: you mentioned like some of the rural areas, especially along the coast.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: What is sort of the role of Alaskan Native voters in the mosaic of Alaskan voting?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: They're, I think, close to a fifth of the population.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, a bit more than that statewide.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: So it's one of the, and one of the larger non-white voters.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: Mixes in the state.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: So among U.S. states, that's Alaska is pretty high.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_02: So in terms of their but I guess in terms of their their influence, I mean,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: I know that they they tend to be a little Democratic leaning maybe
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_02: in presidential races.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe they back Peltola.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: But I guess within sort of the context of is we're about to get into
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_02: the Peltola-Sullivan race here a little bit.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_02: I guess where do they sort of fit in in that that part of the conversation?
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: it's waxed and waned over time because while the area is pretty heavily Democratic,
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: turnout has been really low in rural Alaska in recent years.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so interestingly,
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: Peltola has been campaigning pretty hard in rural Alaska over the last few weeks.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: She's stayed away.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: From South Central Alaska,
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: where most residents are and stayed in pretty heavily Democratic areas to try
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: and get voters to come out for her in November.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: And that some of that may be playing it safe.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: Some of that may be this is her base.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: She's going to whip votes and try and get people to turn out in what's looking to be
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: a pretty close election.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_02: Well, that's fascinating.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_02: Well, speaking of sort of the top line situation in that election,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_02: in our election forecast right now at Decision Desk HQ,
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_02: we give Peltola a slight edge.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_02: She's at 62% chance of winning.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_02: This is Thursday, October 15th when we're recording this.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_02: So that's a hair over our 60% cutoff line between toss up and lean D.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, the point is it's a highly competitive race.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: Dan Sullivan winning about four out of 10 times is,
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_02: you know, you're not saying that he's done for by any means, to say the least.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_02: So, but it obviously is striking that Peltola has led in the polls,
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_02: not by necessarily that much,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_02: but she's up by two and a half, three right now in our polling average.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: And it's been pretty consistent.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Something that's kind of been remarkable is that she's had a small lead in polls,
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: in multiple polls for a long period of time.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it's an indicator that something's happening and it's not just a flash in
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: the pan, not just one or two polls being outliers.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and obviously this is viewed as such a critical race.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_02: We just saw Vice President Vance was there earlier this month.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_02: I know President Trump, by the time this publishes, he may be speaking.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: He actually came up on Tuesday.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: I'm so confused now.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: I remember we were talking about the scheduling for this,
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: just making sure he didn't show up and you had to abruptly change places.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_02: No, that's right.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: He did come up earlier.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_02: I was looking at a schedule of this earlier.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_02: I had thought
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: it was going to be tomorrow, but they did it on Tuesday instead.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_02: So obviously, yeah,
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_02: him speaking in Alaska and him,
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_02: the president out there campaigning,
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_02: knowing that he’s won Alaska by – he won like by 13 percentage points in 2024,
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: trying to turn out some Republican voters.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_02: I guess knowing that,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: seeing these presidential and vice presidential visits,
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: I guess for Alaska voters,
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_02: I guess how do they – because I think for people in the Lower 48 particularly,
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_02: it's sometimes difficult to get a read on – What may be different
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_02: about Alaska voters?
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_02: How are they viewing this race within the national context?
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: And obviously the state level context is very important,
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_02: but thinking about control of the Senate and how that's playing into it.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, a lot of it right now is looking like it's going to come out to come down
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: to turnout, which is why you're seeing J.D.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: Vance.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: You've seen the president come up and actually Ted Cruz is coming up on Friday as well.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: All to campaign, try and get Republicans enthusiastic about this election.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, on Tuesday when I was listening to the president,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: he was saying, act like I'm on the ballot because when I'm on the ballot, we win.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: And that's his goal with this.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: I went to one of his rallies four years ago here in Alaska, went to this one this week.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_01: This one was not as wild as the one four years ago in terms of both the number
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: of people attending and really the enthusiasm wasn't as high.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: But that one four years ago was on a weekend.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: This was on a Tuesday.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: And so that may have played into it as well.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: This one was at a much smaller arena away from Anchorage where most of the people are.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: So that probably had something to do with it.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's tough to tell how much of what I saw this week versus four years ago is
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: because of different conditions with the event itself versus a lack
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: of Republican enthusiasm this year.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: From what we're seeing in the polls,
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: it does indicate that Republican enthusiasm is lower than it was in
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: the midterms four years ago.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: And so that tends to favor Peltola.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: So thinking about the candidates in this race, obviously Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_02: He beat Mark Begich, who was the last Democrat before Peltola, to win statewide elections.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: And the uncle of current representative Nick Begich III,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_02: who is the current lone at large House member in the U.S.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_02: House of Representatives from Alaska.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess with Dan Sullivan,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: why might he be in this position where he seems a little weaker?
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's a combination of the national environment.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: But also, are there other things going on?
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_02: Is it Peltola's particular strengths?
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just – it's just curious because Sullivan, I don't know if he's – is he unpopular?
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_02: In terms of polling I've looked at over the years,
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_02: it doesn't seem like he's a figure who's viewed very negatively.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: If you do look at those approval rating polls to say,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: do you have a positive or negative view of this person?
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: Peltola is among Democrats in the state,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: probably the number one person with the most approval among Democrats in Alaska.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Sullivan has a pretty high negative approval rating right now,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: both among Republicans and among all politicians in the state in general.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think that's a big contributor to it, as well as the national atmosphere.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think if you had another Democrat in there,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: random Democrat number two, instead of Peltola, They would be trailing.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: They would be trailing by a few percentage points
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: and probably be approaching this election from the opposite perspective of trying
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: to catch up to Dan Sullivan.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: But because Peltola is relatively popular,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Dan Sullivan is relatively unpopular,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: that plus the national environment is why you're seeing this race be what it is.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_02: I guess that that raises a question I have,
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_02: which is that it does seem in the last few weeks there have been some stories out
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_02: about Peltola,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: either her treatment of staffers or some language that she's used that was not OK.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_02: You know, you know, always with this, there's like allegations and whatnot.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_02: But so, you know.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: The point being, though,
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_02: it's been out there,
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm just curious if it's really had,
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_02: if you feel like it's had any effect on the race or how people are talking about
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_02: the contest.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: Because,
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: looking at the polls,
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: it doesn't look like there's been a noticeable shift in any way,
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_02: but it's been close for a while now, right?
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_02: But there's not something lubing.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_02: That doesn't look like it's had an obvious effect, at least.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, not at this point.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, since that article from the New York Times was published, I did my own reporting.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: The New York Times did their reporting to say, is this affecting the race?
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: And the answer is no.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: And then since that article came out,
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: Peltola has been campaigning in rural Alaska,
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: away from reporters,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_01: away from In a much friendlier environment where she's not going
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: to be facing tough questions.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Tonight is the big televised U.S. Senate debate between her and Dan Sullivan.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: So I fully expect Sullivan to bring that up as an issue and maybe even try
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: and hit Peltola with this.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: Because as I was talking to a few strategists about,
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: okay, how does each candidate win this race?
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: The Republican strategists and the Democratic ones were agreed that Sullivan needs
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: to try and dent Peltola's approval rating,
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: bring up dirt on her,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: make her less of the Nice Mary impression that she has among voters,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: and more of Moody Mary, as one person put it to me.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, because at the end of the day with Peltola,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think she gets associated,
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_02: and again,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: this is somebody from the Lower 48,
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_02: but it's like the “fish, family, freedom,”
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_02: Mary Peltola smiling at the camera kind of profile that she's built for herself.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_02: That obviously, I could imagine that coming off as...
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_02: Either bipartisan or even nonpartisan in certain ways,
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_02: which can help with winning over some voters who might otherwise consider voting for
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: a Republican or did vote for a Republican,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_02: say, in 2024, even as she lost re-election.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_02: She lost much more narrowly than Kamala Harris did as the Democratic candidate for president.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_02: In Alaska.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_02: So obviously there were some split ticket voters who did back Peltola
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_02: while backing President Trump.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: And so thinking about how,
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_02: to your point,
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_02: I was about to say,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_02: I assume that you would want to cast her in a more negative light,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_02: make her come off as more unfavorable.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: And in addition to bringing up that New York Times reporting,
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: one of the things Sullivan has been attempting to do is say,
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: You're voting for Mary, but you're also voting for control of the U.S. Senate.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: And if you put Democrats in control of the U.S.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: Senate, you're going to get a lot of things that Alaskans don't want.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: So right.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: And Peltola in turn has been attempting to distance herself from national Democrats
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: and make the point that she will vote differently than the rest of her party
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: if she's elected.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: For example,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: on oil and gas issues,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_01: she is going to vote pretty much the same way that Dan Sullivan will.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: She will vote in favor of oil and gas drilling on federal land, particularly here in Alaska.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: And her Party will probably vote against that based on the track record.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so she is making the case that you're voting for me.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to vote differently than national Democrats on these issues that you care
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: about,
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: oil and gas drilling, on firearms, on individual rights, those kinds of things.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_02: that's one of those fascinating things of because Democrats are having to compete in
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_02: a number of red leaning states.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, sort of the most important states for them after Maine.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_02: Which is the exception to this,
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_02: but in places like Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska,
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_02: these are Republican-leaning states where,
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: and I think Peltola is maybe the best representation of this,
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_02: they're hoping that particularly strong candidates who have sort
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: of their own identity And can separate themselves at least a little bit from
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_02: the National Party,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_02: which is not doing so hot in some of these places for Democrats,
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_02: making the race sort of more about the candidates themselves and localized in
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_02: a way rather than nationalized.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_02: Whereas in Maine,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_02: which is a Democratic-leaning state in presidential politics,
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_02: Democrats would love to nationalize that race,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_02: get sort of the overall negative mood toward President Trump to reflect
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_02: on Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent there.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_02: And and flip that seat.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_02: So it's just interesting to see, you know, sort of how those different tradeoffs are working.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: And with just to go on a little digression here,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: because I think Democrats are walking a very fine line on that,
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: because compare what's happening in Alaska's U.S.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: House race and what's happening in the U.S. Senate race.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: In the Senate race, you have the Democrat looking like they have a small lead.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: But in the House race,
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: the incumbent Republican,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: Nick Begich, is being challenged by a Democratic-backed independent.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: And that independent is significantly trailing, polls indicate.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: He hasn't been able to make the same kind of moves that Peltola has.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: And part of the reason for that is that there is a Democrat on the ballot as well.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: He's a gentleman who is in federal prison,
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: has never been to Alaska,
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: but he's still polling with something like 9% of the first choice votes
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: because people, low information voters, are voting for the brand.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: So Democrats want to get those people who vote for the brand,
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: but at the same point,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: they also need to attract independents, Republicans who are wary of the brand.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: Peltola has been able to walk that line,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: but the independent challenger in the U.S.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: House race, Bill Hill, doesn't seem to have been able to do that.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I brought that up just quickly because it's worth mentioning.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_02: Alaska, another statewide race,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_02: is the U.S.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_02: House contest because it's one of the six states with a lone U.S. House member.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_02: And Bill Hill is, for all intents and purposes, the Democratic option of the race.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_02: But he is running as an independent and the main leading Democrat in that race sort
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_02: of dropped out right as you were getting to the top four primary in Alaska.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_02: But he is trailing.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_02: Nick Begich III looks – he is – Likely to win per our forecast.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's not a given,
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_02: but he is favored to win re-election and not by like the skin
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_02: of his teeth necessarily based on what our forecast is saying.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_02: we'll see how it plays out,
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: but that is the sort of split ticket dimensions
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_02: in Alaska are really fascinating here.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess that raises that we should maybe finish on this note with
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_02: the Senate race and talk about the governor's race for just a minute,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_02: but the ranked choice voting component.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_02: One of the things that obviously got a ton of attention in Alaska is the fact
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_02: that there is another Dan Sullivan on the ticket who is running as a Republican
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_02: and how that might affect the race.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_02: He finished third, got what, 2% or 3% in the top four primary.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_02: Remember, Alaska is the top four primary.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_02: The four candidates advance and they have ranked choice voting if no one gets more
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_02: than gets a majority of the first choice votes.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_02: And so there's obviously been concern for Republicans from the get go
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_02: that Dan Sullivan, too, if you will, is going to take some votes.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_02: Petersburg Dan.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_02: Is that what we're calling him?
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Senator Dan and Petersburg Dan is how I shorthand it.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: So.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_02: I guess, yeah,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_02: how do you sort of see the ranked choice voting dimension playing into this on
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_01: the side?
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: Since the first ranked choice election,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_01: general election in 2022,
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: what we've seen is a pretty high percentage of voters bullet voting and not ranking.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: They'll only choose one or maybe two candidates.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: And so we don't see a lot of transfer, particularly in when there's multiple candidates of a...
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: Of a single party.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_01: So we don't see complete transfer.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: And there is some vote loss on that.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: With in the Senate race, you have Senator Dan, who's the incumbent on the ballot.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: He's listed as incumbent Republican.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: And you have Petersburg Dan, also Dan Sullivan.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: But on the ballot, he doesn't have a party label.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: He's not listed as incumbent.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: And in the primary,
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: when both of these folks were on the primary ballot as well,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: We didn't see a lot of votes for Petersburg Dan from Republican leaning districts.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: We saw them from Democratic leaning districts,
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: which indicates Democrats were trying to boost Petersburg Dan into the final four
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: to make sure he made it to November.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: But we didn't see a lot of evidence of confusion among voters.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now, low information voters are more likely to come out in the general election than
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: the primary voters.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: So it's possible there could be some confusion.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: At the Trump rally this week,
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: Trump was like,
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: hey, even 2% of votes for Petersburg, Dan, could be significant in a tight race.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's an open question on whether that'll happen if he gets
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: a significant amount of votes.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think he will.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's pretty well labeled on the ballot that supporters
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: of Senator Dan are going to be able to see who Senator Dan is and not be confused.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_02: just to close out on the Senate race and then we will talk about the governor's race
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_02: for a minute.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_02: I just want to mention that in our forecast, I just I think this is is worth noting.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_02: The Alaska Senate race is sort of the one with the.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_02: So right now in our national forecast, Democrats have a 56 percent chance.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_02: So just a little bit better than a pure coin flip,
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_02: but close to a coin flip chance of winning a Senate majority.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_02: And.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: For just Alaska sticks out to me because if you if we didn't know anything else
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_02: and knew that Democrats at Mary Peltola won,
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_02: we'd expect Democrats to win 75% of the time.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_02: And if we knew that that Dan Sullivan had won in Alaska and knew nothing else.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans win the Senate 74% of the time in our simulations.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_02: So I thought that was kind of a fun symmetry of sorts.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_02: And obviously it's more of a must win for Democrats
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_02: from just looking overall their path to getting a net gain of four seats.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_02: They kind of need a state like Alaska,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: which is at the moment looking like their second best state in terms
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_02: of Republican held ones after North Carolina.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_02: But there's some distance between those two.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_02: North Carolina is looking much more – Much more likely to go into Democratic hands,
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_02: whereas Alaska is looking more competitive.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_02: Critical race is going to be one of the key points in the night,
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_02: and there is a world where it all comes down to Alaska.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_02: For those of us watching election results on election night,
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_02: that we find out that Democrats are at 50 and Republicans are at 49,
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_02: and we don't have a projection in Alaska yet because Democrats Combination
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: of it being a very large state,
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of mail voting,
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_02: the delay there and the potential for it to go to
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_01: ranked choice.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you better hope it doesn't come down to Alaska
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: because like election day is one thing,
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: but we'll only know first choice votes at that point.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's 15 days where absentee ballots can come in and still be counted.
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: 10 days if they're mailed from within the United States and 15 days
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: if they're mailed internationally.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: So we're waiting until November 18th To do a final count
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: and there's no rank choice tabulation until the 18th.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: This isn't like Portland or other jurisdictions that use rank choice voting.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: They do multiple tabulations.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_01: Alaska only does one and it's once all the ballots are received.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're in a situation where Peltola and Senator Dan have each like 48% of
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: the first choice votes,
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: you're going to be waiting until the 18th to see who's actually won.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm sure that everyone will handle that very calmly and responsibly.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's been brought up to me that that's one of the concerns
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: about potential manipulation of the election.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I've heard from people that are worried, like,
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: what if Trump calls up the state's lieutenant governor and is like,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: find me votes, as he did in Georgia?
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: And what happens in that case if control of the Senate comes down to Alaska
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: and you have the president getting involved in that 15-day period?
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_02: Well, it certainly will be...
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_02: If we end up in that kind of situation,
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_02: it'll be, well, it'd be far from ideal and quite an electoral mess.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm worried about plane crashes, but that would be quite a plane crash.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, that would be a metaphorical plane crash if we found ourselves in a situation
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_02: where there was that kind of maneuvering going on with the race to decide control
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_02: the U.S. Senate.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_02: Well, on that happy note,
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_02: why don't we shift over and talk for a minute about the governor's race,
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_02: which is interesting to me because, look,
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans have held the governorship in Alaska since Frank Murkowski won it
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_02: in 2002.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_02: He didn't necessarily hold it for very long because he ended up losing badly in
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_02: the primary in 2006 to a certain politician named Sarah Palin,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_02: who people may be familiar with.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_02: But obviously...
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_02: It's been a while since Democrats have won the governorship in Alaska,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_02: and yet it does look like Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins,
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_02: a former state representative, has a real shot.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_02: in our forecast right now,
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_02: it's kind of a 50-50 race between him and three Republicans.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly,
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think that forecast really underplays Kreiss-Tomkins’s odds at this point,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: especially after what we saw from the Trump rally,
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: because the Republican strategy in the governor's race has been to tell voters
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: to rank all three candidates.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: That's the only way they're going to defeat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: if they get enough transferred votes,
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: because otherwise Republican votes are split among three candidates.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: But then Trump Governor of Alaska,
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Dunleavy comes in, delivers that speech at 220 at the Trump rally on Tuesday.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_01: Trump comes on stage two hours later and says, no, only vote Bernadette Wilson and completely.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_02: He endorsed Bernadette Wilson.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_02: But, you know,
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_02: it's like you either have to embrace the format that's being used or,
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_02: you know, you might cost yourselves.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and that's what in-state Republicans have been arguing.
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_01: They're like,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to vote to repeal it on ballot measure two,
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_01: which is on the ballot as well this year,
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: but we're going to use it one last time to make sure we win.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: And then Trump came in and blew up that strategy by telling Republican voters
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_01: to do something different.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_02: So in terms of the context here,
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_02: you know, yeah,
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_02: Mike Dunleavy,
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_02: the outgoing governor has been, you know, been in office for two terms.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Alaska has had a non-Republican governor in recent memory.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_02: Bill Walker served for term as an independent.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess I'm curious how, why Kreiss-Tomkins might be
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_02: Potentially even a favorite, depending on how you're looking at this race.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_02: this one's a little harder to model because of the ranked choice voting and
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_02: the having four candidates on the ballot situation.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_02: But sort of,
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_02: I guess what sticks out here as the reason that this might actually be
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_02: an opportunity for Democrats to win this office for the first time since 1998,
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_02: Tony Knowles, when he won re-election, it was the last time that they won in Alaska.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so you have the split vote.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_01: You have the three Republicans versus one Democrat.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_01: In the top four primary, there was another Democrat.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: He withdrew in order to force a more favorable setup.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: That was Tom Begich, brother of...
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, brother of Mark, another Begich.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_01: Another uncle of Nick Begich III, finished as the second Democrat in the top four.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: He withdrew, and so you only have one Democrat.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: There's no vote splitting in that case, so that helps JKT's options.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: He's gotten a lot of fundraising support nationally, and you also have the national environment.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_01: And for the past eight years, Dunleavy has run government under austerity measures.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: He's been in conflict with the legislature,
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: which has coalition majorities in both the House and the Senate.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so people seem to be tired of austerity measures and looking for change.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: And Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins would be a very big change from what we've had over
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: the past eight years.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah,
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_02: that's worth noting for folks at home is that another way
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_02: that Alaska has been very interesting in recent times in terms
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_02: of its local politics,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_02: its state-level politics,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_02: is that You have these coalitions running both right now,
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: I believe,
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: both the state Senate and the state House,
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_02: where it's a mix of I think one is is got a few Democrats and a lot of Republicans
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_02: and then the rest of the Republicans are off by themselves.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_02: And the other one's got some independents and the Democrats and then the rest of
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_02: the Republicans off by themselves.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_02: But the fact is you have these sort of bipartisan coalitions running things
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_02: with sort of more conservative Republicans as their own.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_02: Entity is sort of the two caucuses.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_02: And I was curious how that could play into if Kreiss-Tomkins ends up winning.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_02: Sort of governing, you know.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the other factor here is if Kreiss-Tomkins ends up winning,
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: that's a pretty doggone good sign that those coalitions will return
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: and potentially be even strengthened based on the results we saw in the primary.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_01: If the primary results hold up,
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_01: Both of those coalitions will not only return, but they will be stronger.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: And if you have a Democratic governor governing
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_01: with predominantly Democratic coalitions in both the House and the Senate,
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_01: that would be something Alaska hasn't really seen since the 1980s or earlier.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're looking 50 years ago.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_02: I was thinking I was like,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_02: knowing,
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_02: having having Put a lot of data into spreadsheets over the years and looked
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_02: at things.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: It was like,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: you have to go back to like a Bill Sheffield or something or I don't even know.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_02: I've just like was pulling a name out of my hat.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: Steve Cooper perhaps.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_02: Steve Cooper.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, there you go.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_02: One of them beat the other, right?
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_02: If I'm not mistaken.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: Steve Cooper came after Sheffield.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_02: Sheffield.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_02: That's what it was.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know,
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_02: anytime you see a primary loss and you're,
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_02: you know, putting data together on like primary losses, you know, those stick out.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_02: And obviously Frank Murkowski later was also one.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_02: And Mike Gravel lost in his primary.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_01: He did.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_02: A lot of interesting primaries, party primaries in Alaska over the years.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_02: But now they've got the top four system.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess actually maybe that's a let's let's not forget Bernadette Wilson
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_02: before we go before before I try to try to wrap up here.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_02: But she's the leading Republican candidate.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_02: President Trump endorsed her.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_02: So of the Republicans, she would be the most likely to win.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: And we're still seeing the shakeout from Trump's visit here.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: Dave Bronson has said, no,
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to with not going to suspend my campaign because it's too late for him
• 35:12
  SPEAKER_01: to withdraw and get off the ballot.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: Treg Taylor, the state's former attorney general under Dunleavy.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: Is the other Republican in the race.
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: He hasn't said definitively whether he'll suspend his campaign in order to support Wilson.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: At least I haven't seen a statement from him and I haven't been able to reach him
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_01: to ask him about it yet.
• 35:33
  SPEAKER_01: So that's something I'm going to watch for.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_01: But with Trump's support,
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: I think Wilson gets up there into the high 30s, low 40s for first choice votes.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then she's going to need second choice votes from people who voted for Bronson
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: and Treg Taylor as their first choices.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: And if Trump is telling people to only vote for Wilson, that's going to be a problem for that.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and so Bronson's the former Anchorage mayor, Republican.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_02: I believe he lost re-election, if I'm recalling correctly.
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_02: He did.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, a couple years ago.
• 36:09
  SPEAKER_02: What is time now?
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_02: But recently, lost re-election as mayor, pretty conservative guy, if I recall correctly.
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_02: And I think just to clarify,
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_02: because I realize if people are watching this and they see that I've brought up
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_02: the top four results from this and they'll be like, wait, how did Taylor get in?
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_02: But it's because he finished fifth.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: But again, Tom Begich finishes second, former state senator, Democrat, but drops out.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_02: And under the Alaska rules, the next candidate was added to the general election quartet.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_02: And that was Taylor who had finished in fifth.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_02: And so, yeah, a messy situation.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe we can close on this note,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_02: which is,
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_02: as you mentioned earlier,
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_02: There's another effort,
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_02: another ballot measure to potentially undo the top four system to get rid of it.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_02: And this effort has narrowly failed recently.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess where does that stand?
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_02: Because obviously this has really affected the politics of Alaska.
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_02: And what could be the fallout from that?
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's just as big as the governor's race through the U.S.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_01: Senate race at this point because it has determined so much in who gets elected
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: and how Alaska's elections work.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_01: So back in 2020,
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_01: there was this initial ballot measure,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: top four primary,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_01: ranked choice general election,
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_01: and mandatory disclosure of dark money contributions.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: Proponents of the measure have been campaigning on the dark money contributions.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_01: Opponents of the measure have been campaigning on repealing ranked choice voting.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_01: Two years ago, there was a repeal referendum on the ballot that failed narrowly.
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's back again this year.
• 37:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's much better funded this year.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: Elon Musk is funding it,
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff Yass, other very wealthy people are seeking to back the repeal this time.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: So it's much better funded this time.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_01: But on the flip side is the electorate seems to be much more democratic
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_01: than it was two years ago.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_01: I've taken my thought has been that with the repeal campaign being better funded
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_01: and organized, it's probably going to succeed this time.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_01: But there are other smart people who disagree with me and say,
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_01: you know what, the electorate is just more democratic.
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_01: And they think the repeal is going to fail because of that.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm less sure because Tom Begich withdrew from the primary
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_01: and removed some argument that the primary is effective.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like if you have Begich withdrawing from the primary in order to force
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_01: a favorable matchup for Democrats,
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_01: isn't that a sign that the top four primary doesn't work?
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we saw similar maneuvering to various degrees of success in the US House
• 38:50
  SPEAKER_01: and US Senate races.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: If candidates are withdrawing In order to help a party,
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: does that mean the top four primary doesn't work?
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_02: Well, certainly,
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_02: I think it isn't it does not help the case of people who are supporting it.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_02: That's for sure.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it was really interesting that two years ago, too,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: you saw the Democratic Party filing a lawsuit to try and force Eric Hafner,
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: this guy who's on the U.S. House ballot this year.
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_01: But two years ago, they sued to try and get him off the ballot.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_01: Hired a big national democratic law firm to represent them,
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_01: and they used a lot of anti-ranked choice,
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: anti-top four primary arguments that political campaigns have picked up.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: And so you're seeing the state democratic party not support
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: the system both two years ago and this year,
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: even though a lot of their voters support it.
• 39:47
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's been very interesting to see that divide as well.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_02: Well, that is a fascinating, fascinating way to sort of finish this off.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_02: James, this has been extremely helpful.
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_02: I know for folks who are watching and knowing that Alaska is important,
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_02: especially on the Senate side because of the focus on the control of the Senate and
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_02: that potentially hinging on the outcome in Alaska.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_02: But it's far away for a lot of people in the country.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, there's a lot of, you know, what's going on in Alaska?
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_02: What is helping shape it?
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_02: To make a race like like it has on the Senate side and what's going on with
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_02: the governor's race,
• 40:26
  SPEAKER_02: because it's obviously a critical state, particularly for energy and it's.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_02: It's fascinating that a place that is Republican leaning at
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_02: the federal level has some has some interesting things going on in terms
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_02: of its state politics, too.
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_02: So, again, James, thanks so much for joining me on this.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks for having me.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: We could talk for hours about it, honestly, but I'm glad.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_02: I'm sure I could.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_02: Again, this is James Brooks, the state reporter for the Alaska Beacon.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_02: You should definitely go check out the Alaska Beacon’s coverage of politics in
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_02: the last frontier.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, with that, James, again, thanks so much.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_02: So turning to Iowa,
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_02: I'm really excited to be joined by Brianne Pfannenstiel,
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_02: the chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register,
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_02: to talk about what is going on.
• 41:21
  SPEAKER_02: In the Hawkeye State,
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_02: where there is also a very interesting Senate race,
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_02: a very important Senate race to the overall balance of power there,
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_02: and also a really interesting governor's race in another place where it's been
• 41:33
  SPEAKER_02: a long time since Democrats have won a gubernatorial election.
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_02: So, Brianne, thank you so much for joining me.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely happy to talk about all the fun dynamics going on in Iowa.
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well,
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_02: obviously Iowa is a state that gets a lot of attention in presidential years,
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_02: but, you know, there's...
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_02: We've got a super fascinating Senate race.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess maybe that's the place to start is sort of you covering what's happening
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_02: in the Senate race between open seat race.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_02: Republican Joni Ernst is retiring after two terms.
• 42:05
  SPEAKER_02: You have Republican Representative Ashley Hinson seeking the Senate seat.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_02: And then you have Democratic State Representative Josh Turek as the Democratic candidate.
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_02: And right now they are very close in the polls.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_02: Been a while since the Democrats won a Senate race.
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_02: You know, Tom Harkin, I guess, was the last one to do it in 2008.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_02: And that seems like a lifetime ago for Iowa politics.
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess, what are you seeing when it comes to the Senate race?
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_00: if you're following the polls and it feels like there's a new one every day,
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: it's been a real kind of back and forth between both of those candidates.
• 42:39
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's maybe two points for Hinson today, leading two points for Turk the next day.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_00: And so I've been kind of tracking the real clear politics rolling average of those polls.
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_00: And right now,
• 42:51
  SPEAKER_00: you know, that's giving Turek less than a single percentage point lead in that race.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it really does feel like a toss up kind of in the truest sense of the word.
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_00: Both of the candidates have been campaigning really aggressively.
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_00: They've both been good fundraisers.
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get more information on that today with the latest filings.
• 43:08
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know,
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_00: I think Iowans are really seeing this race as a true toss up,
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_00: that it really could go either way,
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_00: that Ashley Hinson is a very strong Republican candidate,
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_00: but it's the year that it is, right?
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_00: All of the stuff that has been happening across the country really is playing out
• 43:25
  SPEAKER_00: in Iowa as well.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_00: And Josh Turek is a good recruit.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: He's somebody that I think the D.C. establishment really wanted to see in this race.
• 43:32
  SPEAKER_00: And we're seeing why that is right now.
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_02: And actually,
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_02: just to bring up our election forecast,
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_02: wouldn't you know it,
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_02: it's practically 50-50 in terms of the probability of each candidate winning.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_02: Very close.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_02: We do have Turek slightly ahead in our polling average, much like RealClearPolitics does.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_02: Currently almost two-point lead for Turek, but 47-45.
• 43:52
  SPEAKER_02: And yes,
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_02: it's sort of bounced around between being basically roughly tied and Turek ahead by
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_02: a point.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_02: And it's been extremely tight.
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess thinking about, obviously, the national context is important.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_02: Knowing that it does seem like the topic of conversation surrounding the Iowa race
• 44:11
  SPEAKER_02: and also a race like the one in Kansas that seems much closer than expected
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_02: the Senate side,
• 44:16
  SPEAKER_02: is the conversation about sort of the effects of things like the Iran War,
• 44:20
  SPEAKER_02: tariffs on the agricultural sector in particular.
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_02: And I was curious if that's something that maybe is looming particularly large in the Iowa race.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think Iowa is really kind of ground zero for a lot of these dynamics, right?
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_00: We've hit record diesel prices in Iowa and that obviously is
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_00: an incredibly salient issue in Iowa where agriculture is one of the primary drivers
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_00: of the economy,
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_00: where farmers right now are going out into the harvest and
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_00: that diesel price really is relevant at this exact moment, right?
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_00: Three weeks before an election day.
• 44:54
  SPEAKER_00: So that matters.
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_00: The trade war tariffs, that's hit Iowa really significantly.
• 45:00
  SPEAKER_00: Canada is the biggest export partner of Iowa goods.
• 45:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, going into a trade war with Canada has hurt Iowa as well.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_00: Some, you know,
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_00: Josh Turek is making the case,
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_00: but You also point to,
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_00: Ashley Hinson would point to a new steel plant that's been announced to come
• 45:20
  SPEAKER_00: in Southeast Iowa.
• 45:22
  SPEAKER_00: And that's obviously a long way off,
• 45:23
  SPEAKER_00: but she would say that that's evidence that those tariffs are working.
• 45:26
  SPEAKER_00: So we're really seeing kind of both sides of that dynamic play out.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_00: But it's really, yeah,
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: the rise in gas prices,
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_00: just the feeling of the economy being difficult for people,
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_00: all of that is really playing out very much in Iowa.
• 45:43
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know,
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_02: to this point,
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_02: I think we what I've been doing these episodes talking about sort of
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_02: the state state contests,
• 45:51
  SPEAKER_02: I thought it'd be worth talking a minute about sort of the geography of
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_02: the state for a second.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_02: And you mentioned sort of Southeast Iowa there.
• 46:00
  SPEAKER_02: You know, the thing is, this is the presidential map from 2024.
• 46:04
  SPEAKER_02: For people looking at home.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_02: And there are only four counties that that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_02: And President Trump carried the state by about 13 percentage points.
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_02: Or actually, I should say five.
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_02: Let me not underestimate Black Hawk County.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_02: Apologies.
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_02: Apologies.
• 46:18
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's where Northern Iowa is.
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_02: The University of Northern Iowa, if I'm not mistaken.
• 46:23
  SPEAKER_02: So so in Cedar Falls,
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_02: the The thing with Iowa,
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_02: obviously, is that it has been a red-leaning state in recent years.
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_02: But I guess there are sort of two questions.
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_02: One, if Democrats are going to be competitive in the Senate race and also
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_02: the governor's race,
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_02: which we'll talk about in a little bit,
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_02: but also have a shot at actually winning this place
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_02: that they've been really struggling in, I guess I'm curious what that looks like.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_02: We know sort of the last time Democrats won in Iowa,
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_02: sort of the Barack Obama map, the eastern part of the state was a lot bluer.
• 47:01
  SPEAKER_02: And then basically everything except the Cedar Rapids
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_02: and Iowa City areas shifted very clearly to the right.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess if you're thinking about for Iowa,
• 47:13
  SPEAKER_02: is it a combination of maybe some of that being recreated,
• 47:15
  SPEAKER_02: but then also maybe it's lower Republican turnout in the western part of the state,
• 47:19
  SPEAKER_02: people frustrated with the status quo,
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_02: the very Republican western part of the state?
• 47:24
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 47:25
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 47:25
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of on your map there,
• 47:27
  SPEAKER_00: the northwest corner of Iowa is the most conservative part of the state,
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_00: and they really are responsible for absolutely driving up Republican turnout.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_00: So we just got news today that Donald Trump is going to be in the state twice
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: before Election Day.
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to hold two different rallies here.
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_00: And so I would expect that one of those is up in that northwest corner
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: where you have a really high concentration of Republican voters.
• 47:52
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know,
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: a Trump visit maybe in Des Moines is going to hit some of those people
• 47:57
  SPEAKER_00: who really have those negative associations with him,
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_00: the low approval ratings that we're seeing.
• 48:02
  SPEAKER_00: But in that northwest corner, that's very much Trump country.
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_00: I struggle to think of places across the country that are better ground
• 48:10
  SPEAKER_00: for Donald Trump than up there.
• 48:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so Republicans are really hoping
• 48:14
  SPEAKER_00: that having him come up there will boost turnout,
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_00: people who are maybe thinking about staying at home because he's not on the ballot.
• 48:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's what they're hoping is going to counteract those bluer,
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_00: more urban cities, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids.
• 48:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm really interested to see as well.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned kind of the eastern seaboard of the state there.
• 48:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the Mississippi.
• 48:37
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, right.
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_02: The Mississippi River counties
• 48:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's as close as we get to a coast here.
• 48:44
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah.
• 48:45
  SPEAKER_00: But those are counties that, as you mentioned, we call them pivot counties.
• 48:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I think a lot there was a lot of talk about them between the Obama
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_00: to Trump years because Iowa is a state that did vote for Obama twice.
• 48:57
  SPEAKER_00: And those river counties is really where we saw the biggest swing for voters going
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_00: from Obama to Trump.
• 49:03
  SPEAKER_00: These are counties that historically have been very blue collar,
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of manufacturing companies.
• 49:10
  SPEAKER_00: Blue Dog Democrats,
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_00: the Northeast corner where Dubuque is has a lot of kind of a big Catholic base.
• 49:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so we've seen those counties really pivot away from Democrats in recent years.
• 49:23
  SPEAKER_00: And so I'm super curious to see what the future of those counties is,
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_00: if they stay with Republicans or if Democrats are able to make some inroads there
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_00: for a Democrat to win in the state,
• 49:36
  SPEAKER_00: they've clearly got to get More of these counties blue, right?
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_00: You can't win with a map that looks like this.
• 49:43
  SPEAKER_00: So they've got to pick some of these places.
• 49:45
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's the kind of excerpts outside of the bigger cities.
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's these Eastern counties.
• 49:50
  SPEAKER_00: But clearly they need more than what Kamala Harris had here.
• 49:55
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess that actually raises an interesting question to me,
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_02: which is Josh Turek faced an Iowa City candidate
• 50:04
  SPEAKER_02: or Iowa City area candidate Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_02: and ended up winning the nomination pretty comfortably in the end,
• 50:11
  SPEAKER_02: but it was a competitive race.
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_02: And Turek is from the Omaha suburbs,
• 50:17
  SPEAKER_02: so Pottawattamie County,
• 50:20
  SPEAKER_02: sort of southwestern part of the state,
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_02: which is,
• 50:23
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 50:24
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think that's maybe where Democrats typically field candidates from
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_02: for statewide office.
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 50:29
  SPEAKER_02: And so I assume,
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 50:31
  SPEAKER_02: a lot of national Democrats wanted Turk because they felt like he was,
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_02: besides that,
• 50:36
  SPEAKER_02: also his story as someone who's a Paralympian,
• 50:39
  SPEAKER_02: a gold medalist in Paralympic basketball,
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_02: has, you know, had to deal with a bunch of surgeries as a child.
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_02: It was a spina bifida, I believe.
• 50:48
  SPEAKER_02: He's, you know, he's got a really interesting story and he's won in a Trump 1 match.
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_02: State house seat a couple times.
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess I was curious how you're seeing that actually play out.
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_02: Does that,
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_02: is that,
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_02: is that, I mean,
• 51:03
  SPEAKER_02: obviously the fact that the race is close,
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_02: but part of that's a national thing, right?
• 51:07
  SPEAKER_02: So it's a question of how much are we actually sort of seeing that, I guess, borne out a bit?
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that that was appealing to a lot of people about Josh Trick,
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know, Johnson County Democrats.
• 51:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's kind of almost a slur in some places, right?
• 51:25
  SPEAKER_00: But they're so liberal.
• 51:26
  SPEAKER_02: This is where Iowa City is, to be clear, the University of Iowa.
• 51:29
  SPEAKER_02: It's the dark bluest place in Iowa by some distance.
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 51:35
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's almost like easy shorthand to dismiss a Democrat from there.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously that type of Democrat appeals to a lot of people.
• 51:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's why it was such a closely fought primary race.
• 51:46
  SPEAKER_00: But for Josh Turek to be able to come in and say, listen, I'm from Council Bluffs.
• 51:50
  SPEAKER_00: I'm from a red area.
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_00: My own father is a Republican who's voted for Republicans in the past,
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_00: and here's what he says about this race.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_00: It kind of gives him an easier entry to talking to Republicans where,
• 52:02
  SPEAKER_00: you know, you're not going to dismiss him off the bat.
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so we've seen him really travel the state and I think is kind of leaning
• 52:10
  SPEAKER_00: on those roots,
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_00: being from a red area, being able to say, look, I know who these people are.
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_00: I know how to talk to them.
• 52:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that, I think, is pretty critical for a Democrat to be able to win in Iowa.
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_02: So obviously we were talking about,
• 52:23
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 52:24
  SPEAKER_02: things like cost of living,
• 52:26
  SPEAKER_02: cost of Diesel, cost of energy, the trade war with Canada.
• 52:32
  SPEAKER_02: It was notable when it seemed like Representative Hinson sort
• 52:36
  SPEAKER_02: of intentionally avoided campaigning with Vice President Vance.
• 52:41
  SPEAKER_02: Essentially,
• 52:43
  SPEAKER_02: it was kind of a signal of,
• 52:46
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, do we know if she's planning to appear with President Trump?
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_02: It might be hard not to.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_00: I was going to say with two separate appearances,
• 52:53
  SPEAKER_00: it might be hard to find excuses for both of those visits.
• 52:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know yet whether she plans to be there.
• 53:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're still waiting to hear some details of exactly where he'll be on both
• 53:06
  SPEAKER_00: of those visits.
• 53:07
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm very curious to see whether she chooses to attend,
• 53:12
  SPEAKER_00: whether some of Iowa's embattled congressional candidates.
• 53:16
  SPEAKER_00: There are as many as three house seats that I think can be competitive.
• 53:20
  SPEAKER_00: So are they going to show up, take time off the campaign trail to do that?
• 53:24
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, that's an open question.
• 53:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be curious to see what she decides.
• 53:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then if she goes, right, how much of a starring role do you play?
• 53:31
  SPEAKER_00: Because we've seen these rallies before where he invites the whole
• 53:35
  SPEAKER_00: The whole ticket up onto the stage and lets them say something.
• 53:37
  SPEAKER_00: Is she going to be on stage speaking and being photographed with the president
• 53:41
  SPEAKER_00: or will she be, you know, maybe quiet in the audience a little bit?
• 53:45
  SPEAKER_02: And sort of to that point, just sort of the larger conversation for Hinson.
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_02: there there was conversation about a couple members of the U.S.
• 53:55
  SPEAKER_02: House from Iowa breaking with the president on sort of war powers things.
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_02: And I know,
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 54:00
  SPEAKER_02: sort of this this is just a larger conversation about Republicans trying
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_02: to find ways to create a little separation from a relatively unpopular president
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_02: from their party.
• 54:09
  SPEAKER_02: But I guess for Hinson specifically,
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_02: what what is she sort of been doing on this front to try to balance
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_02: a tough environment for her party?
• 54:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, she's.
• 54:21
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the most interesting candidate to me on this issue because
• 54:24
  SPEAKER_00: when she announced her race,
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_00: she came in and said,
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_00: I plan to be Donald Trump's number one ally in the U.S. Senate.
• 54:31
  SPEAKER_00: I plan to do everything I can to implement his MAGA agenda.
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_00: She came out very explicitly as being a Trump ally.
• 54:39
  SPEAKER_00: And so now that we're farther into this race and we're seeing frustration for all of
• 54:44
  SPEAKER_00: the reasons that we're seeing frustration with the president,
• 54:47
  SPEAKER_00: She's had to walk a very fine line.
• 54:49
  SPEAKER_00: She doesn't want to alienate that base vote.
• 54:51
  SPEAKER_00: Again, we talked about that northwest corner of Iowa where it's really important
• 54:55
  SPEAKER_00: to make sure that those people turn out.
• 54:58
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
• 55:00
  SPEAKER_00: how closely do you want to be associated with the war on Iran
• 55:03
  SPEAKER_00: and record-breaking diesel prices?
• 55:05
  SPEAKER_00: So we've seen her say, She has called for an immediate and successful end to the war in Iran.
• 55:10
  SPEAKER_00: But she also said during a debate this week that she would continue to oppose
• 55:15
  SPEAKER_00: a War Powers resolution.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of a very fine line of what she's walking here.
• 55:20
  SPEAKER_00: She said that she opposes the president's plan to import Russian diesel to try
• 55:25
  SPEAKER_00: and bring down that price.
• 55:27
  SPEAKER_00: So that was another place where she's created a little bit of distance with the president.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: But I think she's wary also of going too far and alienating those base voters
• 55:36
  SPEAKER_00: who they really need to turn out.
• 55:38
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess on the flip side,
• 55:39
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_02: we talked about maybe Turk talking about his sort of his his appeal,
• 55:44
  SPEAKER_02: but I'm curious how he's balanced being a Democrat running in a red,
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_02: you know, a red leading state.
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously,
• 55:50
  SPEAKER_02: he was preferred by National Democrats in part
• 55:52
  SPEAKER_02: because they felt like he would be better at that.
• 55:54
  SPEAKER_02: But obviously,
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_02: he still has to confront issues and sort of delicately balance
• 55:59
  SPEAKER_02: where his national party is.
• 56:02
  SPEAKER_02: With trying to appeal to maybe an average voter who is going to be a little to
• 56:07
  SPEAKER_02: the right of center.
• 56:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 56:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that's been interesting to watch as well because he has been airing TV ads,
• 56:16
  SPEAKER_00: kind of trying to neutralize the attack on Democrats over immigration in particular.
• 56:21
  SPEAKER_00: He's filmed a couple of ads from the southern border saying
• 56:24
  SPEAKER_00: that he supports protecting America's borders and deporting criminals.
• 56:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that's something that he's really been trying to push and trying to kind
• 56:35
  SPEAKER_00: of insulate himself from some of those attacks.
• 56:39
  SPEAKER_00: So that's been one area where he's really kind of bucked the party,
• 56:43
  SPEAKER_00: at least in the last couple of years,
• 56:45
  SPEAKER_00: to be more aggressive, more moderate on immigration.
• 56:49
  SPEAKER_00: But another issue,
• 56:50
  SPEAKER_00: and again,
• 56:51
  SPEAKER_00: we've seen this one all over the country,
• 56:52
  SPEAKER_00: is transgender issues, talking about transgender athletes in the debate this week.
• 56:58
  SPEAKER_00: He got asked about whether he supports that,
• 57:00
  SPEAKER_00: and he You know, didn't even say the word transgender, right?
• 57:03
  SPEAKER_00: He said, I don't support biological males playing in women's sports.
• 57:06
  SPEAKER_00: And so we've seen him take that issue and again,
• 57:10
  SPEAKER_00: really try to neutralize this Republican talking point,
• 57:13
  SPEAKER_00: because even with those stances, right, he's being attacked on this regardless.
• 57:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's kind of a question.
• 57:20
  SPEAKER_00: There's some tension in the party.
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_00: You can feel it among Democrats with Josh Turek and with some
• 57:24
  SPEAKER_00: of these other candidates as well as they take these positions that,
• 57:28
  SPEAKER_00: you know, they're Frustrated by it.
• 57:30
  SPEAKER_00: I think some of the base Democrats are worried about that.
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_00: But frankly, an Iowa Democrats are just so tired of losing.
• 57:37
  SPEAKER_00: You know, this is the year where it's kind of put up or shut up.
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think they feel that these candidates and Josh Turek have
• 57:44
  SPEAKER_00: a really good chance of being able to win.
• 57:46
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think they're largely kind of staying out of the fray on that
• 57:51
  SPEAKER_00: and letting him say what he needs to say.
• 57:54
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting to play out.
• 57:56
  SPEAKER_00: And then again, obviously what happens afterward?
• 58:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, just because I think it's worth just reminding people to close out with
• 58:04
  SPEAKER_02: the conversation here about the Senate,
• 58:06
  SPEAKER_02: you know, Iowa is a critical piece of the majority puzzle.
• 58:12
  SPEAKER_02: You know, it is sort of of the toss up for most competitive states.
• 58:16
  SPEAKER_02: It is the one that is sort of just a hair to the right in our forecast model.
• 58:22
  SPEAKER_02: And if Democrats win it, They win the Senate about four and five times in our forecast.
• 58:27
  SPEAKER_02: We don't know anything else, but you told us Iowa went Democratic.
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_02: They win it four out of five times.
• 58:32
  SPEAKER_02: And so it's obviously a very critical piece.
• 58:35
  SPEAKER_02: If Republicans were to win it, then Democrats only won the Senate about one in three times.
• 58:40
  SPEAKER_02: So it's a very important hold for the GOP and for Ashley Hinson to pull off.
• 58:45
  SPEAKER_02: And I guess actually just one thing I did want to ask is where – You know,
• 58:49
  SPEAKER_02: I remember when Joni Ernst announced her retirement,
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_02: I was actually like,
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_02: maybe Democrats are actually bummed about that
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_02: because I feel like she had had some struggles at the end.
• 58:57
  SPEAKER_02: And it does seem like Hinson may be in some ways the most formidable of these sort
• 59:03
  SPEAKER_02: of key states.
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_02: She's not already an incumbent senator.
• 59:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 59:08
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 59:09
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 59:10
  SPEAKER_00: Joni Ernst announcing her retirement, I mean,
• 59:12
  SPEAKER_00: that came right after This feels like a gazillion years ago now,
• 59:16
  SPEAKER_00: but she said at a town hall she was being pressed about Medicaid cuts and
• 59:23
  SPEAKER_00: whether people were going to suffer or die because they can't access health care.
• 59:29
  SPEAKER_00: And she kind of shrugged and said, well, we're all going to die.
• 59:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so there was an enormous dust up over that.
• 59:36
  SPEAKER_00: And so when it felt a little bit like a reflection of, you know, maybe...
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's time to move on.
• 59:44
  SPEAKER_00: And so she announced she wasn't going to run.
• 59:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that was kind of everybody's favorite parlor game at that time was,
• 59:50
  SPEAKER_00: is she going to run or is she not?
• 59:52
  SPEAKER_00: So she announced she was not.
• 59:53
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it really breathed fresh life into that race for Republicans.
• 59:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think Ashley Hinson is viewed as a very strong contender.
• 1:00:01
  SPEAKER_00: She came in.
• 1:00:02
  SPEAKER_00: She's incredibly ready.
• 1:00:04
  SPEAKER_00: She's a skilled debater.
• 1:00:07
  SPEAKER_00: If you watch the debates this week, she's a skilled fundraiser.
• 1:00:10
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think Republicans and Republicans were glad to be able
• 1:00:14
  SPEAKER_00: to have her step immediately into that.
• 1:00:15
  SPEAKER_00: She really consolidated support almost from the very beginning.
• 1:00:19
  SPEAKER_00: She had Donald Trump's endorsement.
• 1:00:21
  SPEAKER_00: So she was able to start campaigning right away.
• 1:00:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I do think Democrats probably saw Joni Ernst as an easier opponent at that time.
• 1:00:31
  SPEAKER_02: Well, speaking of,
• 1:00:33
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:00:33
  SPEAKER_02: you said it a minute ago,
• 1:00:35
  SPEAKER_02: Democrats being tired of losing about the only Democrat who has won statewide
• 1:00:39
  SPEAKER_02: in recent times.
• 1:00:40
  SPEAKER_02: The only Democratic statewide officeholder at this point left in Iowa is Rob Sand,
• 1:00:45
  SPEAKER_02: and he is running for governor.
• 1:00:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's an open seat.
• 1:00:49
  SPEAKER_02: Kim Reynolds, the Republican incumbent, is not seeking reelection, although she could in Iowa.
• 1:00:54
  SPEAKER_02: She could run again.
• 1:00:55
  SPEAKER_02: There's not a term limit in the same way as there are in other states.
• 1:00:59
  SPEAKER_02: But she opted to retire.
• 1:01:01
  SPEAKER_02: And so Rob Sand, as sort of expected, decided to run for governor.
• 1:01:06
  SPEAKER_02: And he faces Zach Lahn,
• 1:01:07
  SPEAKER_02: who spells it L-A-H-N.
• 1:01:09
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think a lot of people mispronounce it as Lon, but it's Zach Lahn.
• 1:01:13
  SPEAKER_02: And right now, you know, Sand is looking like a favorite.
• 1:01:17
  SPEAKER_02: He's close to a three or four shot in our forecast.
• 1:01:19
  SPEAKER_02: He's leading in the polls by eight or nine percentage points on average.
• 1:01:24
  SPEAKER_02: So it does feel like this race is in a different category from the Senate race,
• 1:01:31
  SPEAKER_02: which feels like very much a toss up.
• 1:01:33
  SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless, I was still a redlining state.
• 1:01:36
  SPEAKER_02: And how did we sort of get here with Rob Sand potentially being in this position
• 1:01:41
  SPEAKER_02: to break a losing streak for Democrats?
• 1:01:43
  SPEAKER_02: I think Chet Culver, 2006, was the last Democrat to win.
• 1:01:47
  SPEAKER_02: And then Culver lost re-election to Terry Branstad, who made a comeback in 2010.
• 1:01:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's been a long and interesting road to get here.
• 1:01:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I think,
• 1:01:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:01:57
  SPEAKER_00: it's unusual,
• 1:01:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think, for Democrats to be the favorite and frankly any race in Iowa these days.
• 1:02:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think it really speaks to the kind of campaign
• 1:02:06
  SPEAKER_00: that Rob Sand has put together and the kind of candidate that he is.
• 1:02:11
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know,
• 1:02:11
  SPEAKER_00: he's The only statewide elected Democrat in Iowa to the very sexy office
• 1:02:16
  SPEAKER_00: of state auditor.
• 1:02:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so that kind of tells you where Democrats are at in Iowa right now.
• 1:02:20
  SPEAKER_00: But being that only that only face that only elected statewide official,
• 1:02:26
  SPEAKER_00: he's really been able to be in front of people.
• 1:02:30
  SPEAKER_00: He has used that time in the auditor's office.
• 1:02:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's been elected twice to that role.
• 1:02:34
  SPEAKER_00: And every year while he's been in that role,
• 1:02:36
  SPEAKER_00: he has done a full statewide tour of town halls where he asks constituents to come
• 1:02:41
  SPEAKER_00: and ask him about the auditor's office, ask whatever they want.
• 1:02:44
  SPEAKER_00: He is available to them.
• 1:02:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that, I think, for a long time now has put him in front of potential constituents.
• 1:02:53
  SPEAKER_00: Back when we were doing state-level polling,
• 1:02:55
  SPEAKER_00: he was viewed most favorably of,
• 1:02:59
  SPEAKER_00: I think, any Iowa politician at one particular time.
• 1:03:02
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's been able to build a lot of goodwill.
• 1:03:04
  SPEAKER_00: He's been able to put himself in front of voters.
• 1:03:07
  SPEAKER_00: And then when he announced his campaign, he did that again.
• 1:03:10
  SPEAKER_00: So he's visited every county in the state twice now since the campaign started.
• 1:03:14
  SPEAKER_00: So that's 200 public panels.
• 1:03:17
  SPEAKER_02: Two Full Grassleys.
• 1:03:19
  SPEAKER_00: Two Full Grassleys.
• 1:03:20
  SPEAKER_00: We need a new name for the “Full Grassley” when you do it twice.
• 1:03:23
  SPEAKER_00: But so I think he's been very aggressively in front of people.
• 1:03:30
  SPEAKER_00: And that's helped him build up that name ID.
• 1:03:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's been a prolific fundraiser.
• 1:03:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's obviously gotten a lot of money from his wealthy in-laws,
• 1:03:37
  SPEAKER_00: but that's outstripped by quite a bit from what Average people have been donating
• 1:03:44
  SPEAKER_00: to his campaign as well.
• 1:03:45
  SPEAKER_00: So he's been incredibly well funded.
• 1:03:46
  SPEAKER_00: He's been incredibly available and he's been doing it for a long time and very consistently.
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_00: And again,
• 1:03:51
  SPEAKER_00: he's the type of Democrat that we're seeing do well across the country,
• 1:03:54
  SPEAKER_00: kind of a moderate.
• 1:03:55
  SPEAKER_00: He talks about the kind of the evils of the two party system and makes an appeal
• 1:04:00
  SPEAKER_00: to people just who want good government back.
• 1:04:04
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 1:04:04
  SPEAKER_00: he's making an appeal to Iowans who remember sending Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin
• 1:04:09
  SPEAKER_00: to the United States Senate.
• 1:04:11
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa is a state that Has fought against gerrymandering by having
• 1:04:15
  SPEAKER_00: an independent redistricting commission.
• 1:04:16
  SPEAKER_00: So kind of these things that Iowans really pride themselves on.
• 1:04:19
  SPEAKER_00: He's saying, listen, we've had 10 years of one party control and it's not going so well.
• 1:04:23
  SPEAKER_00: So what if we try something different?
• 1:04:26
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_02: Because,
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_02: it's worth noting,
• 1:04:29
  SPEAKER_02: even if Sand does win,
• 1:04:31
  SPEAKER_02: Republicans are very likely,
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_02: I would think, going to hold on to the state legislature.
• 1:04:35
  SPEAKER_02: So you're going to probably have divided government and absolutely.
• 1:04:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of a selling point for him when he's on a campaign trail.
• 1:04:42
  SPEAKER_00: He's telling Republicans, look,
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_00: I know you're worried about what Democrats might do, but there's a failsafe here.
• 1:04:49
  SPEAKER_00: I can't get anything through a Republican legislature that I can't get them to sign off on.
• 1:04:55
  SPEAKER_00: And so you're basically forcing bipartisanship in Iowa.
• 1:04:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's something that he presents as a real kind of feature of his campaign.
• 1:05:04
  SPEAKER_02: So to turn to Zach Lahn,
• 1:05:06
  SPEAKER_02: who is who somewhat unexpectedly,
• 1:05:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 1:05:10
  SPEAKER_02: ended up winning the Republican primary beating Representative Randy Feenstra,
• 1:05:13
  SPEAKER_02: who was who had Trump's endorsement in that primary,
• 1:05:18
  SPEAKER_02: but Lahn ended up narrowly beating him.
• 1:05:20
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Can you, can you give like a minute primer on who Zach Lahn is for folks?
• 1:05:26
  SPEAKER_02: Cause people will probably.
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and I think a lot of Iowans needed the primer too,
• 1:05:30
  SPEAKER_00: because he was somebody who really came out of nowhere in the primary.
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think anybody had ever really.
• 1:05:35
  SPEAKER_00: Worked with him before.
• 1:05:36
  SPEAKER_00: Randy Feenstra was the sitting congressman in the fourth district.
• 1:05:39
  SPEAKER_00: So again, that northwest corner where there's a lot of Republican votes.
• 1:05:42
  SPEAKER_00: So he was really favored to do well in that primary.
• 1:05:45
  SPEAKER_00: He was better funded, as you mentioned, the endorsement of the president.
• 1:05:49
  SPEAKER_00: But Zach Lahn came in and he's kind of a businessman, an investor.
• 1:05:53
  SPEAKER_00: He has a farm in a small town in Iowa.
• 1:05:56
  SPEAKER_00: And he really,
• 1:05:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 1:05:58
  SPEAKER_00: has harnessed kind of a lot of Economic populism,
• 1:06:03
  SPEAKER_00: as well as kind of the MAHA movement.
• 1:06:06
  SPEAKER_00: He's been endorsed by the MAHA Action PAC.
• 1:06:08
  SPEAKER_00: So somebody who talks about vaccines and about Iowa has huge issues
• 1:06:14
  SPEAKER_00: with water quality that he is tying directly to the agriculture industry.
• 1:06:20
  SPEAKER_00: Iowa is also one of only a couple states in the country that has a rising cancer rate.
• 1:06:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's linking all of these things together in a way that is very unusual for
• 1:06:29
  SPEAKER_00: a Republican in this state to do.
• 1:06:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I think all of those things really tapped into the grassroots of the party and,
• 1:06:36
  SPEAKER_00: you know, very much an underdog come from behind win in the primary.
• 1:06:39
  SPEAKER_00: And it's that's kind of where we're at in the general election, too,
• 1:06:42
  SPEAKER_00: is is that grassroots support strong enough to To carry him through and
• 1:06:47
  SPEAKER_00: to get enough of those kind of establishment Republicans to get behind him as well.
• 1:06:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
• 1:06:53
  SPEAKER_02: so to have Sand sort of in this position where I pulled up our polling average here,
• 1:06:59
  SPEAKER_02: he's up by,
• 1:07:00
  SPEAKER_02: he's up about 52% to 43% in our polling average,
• 1:07:05
  SPEAKER_02: which is certainly striking,
• 1:07:08
  SPEAKER_02: especially given the very close race for Senate and Iowa being a state
• 1:07:12
  SPEAKER_02: that President Trump carried by 13 points.
• 1:07:15
  SPEAKER_02: And so I guess the big question is, yeah, how does Lahn make this more interesting?
• 1:07:23
  SPEAKER_02: Part of it is out of his control, national environmental factors.
• 1:07:28
  SPEAKER_02: But you noted there,
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: it's sort of like,
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:31
  SPEAKER_02: is Sand winning over So is it a thing where Sand is able to keep margins
• 1:07:37
  SPEAKER_02: a little bit lower for Democrats in terms of negative margins
• 1:07:40
  SPEAKER_02: in some really dark red places,
• 1:07:42
  SPEAKER_02: but also is winning over some maybe Republican leading suburbanites in like
• 1:07:46
  SPEAKER_02: the Des Moines area,
• 1:07:48
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:48
  SPEAKER_02: Dallas County,
• 1:07:49
  SPEAKER_02: like West Des Moines,
• 1:07:50
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:51
  SPEAKER_02: that kind of environment and maybe some older line Democrats in the eastern part of
• 1:07:55
  SPEAKER_02: the state.
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_02: And that's how he's able to put it together.
• 1:07:58
  SPEAKER_02: And how does Lahn sort of combat that, I guess?
• 1:08:01
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 1:08:01
  SPEAKER_00: So right now, again, it all comes back to this fourth district that we keep talking about.
• 1:08:06
  SPEAKER_00: Right now,
• 1:08:06
  SPEAKER_00: Lahn has kind of laid out his next several days of campaigning,
• 1:08:10
  SPEAKER_00: and he is fully spending time kind of camping out in that northwest Iowa corner.
• 1:08:16
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's really trying to make sure that the base turns out because,
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_00: again, there are just simply more Republicans in the state than there are Democrats.
• 1:08:23
  SPEAKER_00: So if they're able to convince them to show up, Republicans should do fine in this state.
• 1:08:28
  SPEAKER_00: But what Sand has done,
• 1:08:29
  SPEAKER_00: and I think where we're seeing kind of this difference,
• 1:08:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, he has been everywhere in the state.
• 1:08:35
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
• 1:08:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think Republicans who are not super tuned in and just maybe see the headlines
• 1:08:41
  SPEAKER_00: or hear people talking about it,
• 1:08:43
  SPEAKER_00: they kind of question this idea that Republicans are actually showing up
• 1:08:46
  SPEAKER_00: to rob Sand events.
• 1:08:48
  SPEAKER_00: But at every event, he asks them to raise their hands and identify themselves.
• 1:08:52
  SPEAKER_00: Same with independents and Democrats.
• 1:08:54
  SPEAKER_00: And there are always a significant number of self-identified Republicans in the crowd.
• 1:09:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so he will hand the microphone over to somebody who raises their hand
• 1:09:03
  SPEAKER_00: and let them have one of the questions in the town hall.
• 1:09:06
  SPEAKER_00: So I think he is talking to Republicans in this state.
• 1:09:11
  SPEAKER_00: He is talking to independents in this state.
• 1:09:14
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why you're seeing the polls look the way that they are.
• 1:09:17
  SPEAKER_00: Again,
• 1:09:17
  SPEAKER_00: and I know there's a lot of kind of confusion about to what degree we can trust
• 1:09:21
  SPEAKER_00: the polls at this point.
• 1:09:23
  SPEAKER_00: But I was talking with Zach Lahn last week after an event and kind
• 1:09:26
  SPEAKER_00: of asked him what his assessment of the state of play is in Iowa.
• 1:09:29
  SPEAKER_00: And he said, look, candidly, we're down.
• 1:09:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're behind.
• 1:09:32
  SPEAKER_00: We need to come.
• 1:09:33
  SPEAKER_00: We need to surge here at the end to make this happen.
• 1:09:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I think he's also acknowledging kind of where Republicans stand.
• 1:09:40
  SPEAKER_00: I would say that it's probably a mistake to underestimate Iowa Republicans’ ability
• 1:09:44
  SPEAKER_00: to come home in the final stretch.
• 1:09:46
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen that a lot.
• 1:09:48
  SPEAKER_00: But.
• 1:09:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's very clearly a difference between where Rob Sand is and
• 1:09:53
  SPEAKER_00: where Josh Turek are in these polls.
• 1:09:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and I would assume that one of the other things that Sand has going for him is
• 1:10:00
  SPEAKER_02: the fact that you have had Republican governance for a long time in the state.
• 1:10:05
  SPEAKER_02: It's not such a ruby red state that the idea of electing a Democrat is completely,
• 1:10:11
  SPEAKER_02: seems completely baffling.
• 1:10:13
  SPEAKER_02: A state like Kansas has elected a Democrat recently,
• 1:10:17
  SPEAKER_02: and it's a little bit redder than Iowa and currently has a Democrat governor.
• 1:10:21
  SPEAKER_02: So it's like sort of the sharp partisan edges
• 1:10:24
  SPEAKER_02: of our federal politics don't always have to apply quite as neatly
• 1:10:29
  SPEAKER_02: to governor's races.
• 1:10:30
  SPEAKER_02: I think they are stronger than they used to be.
• 1:10:33
  SPEAKER_02: It's harder for a Democrat to win in a red state and a Republican to win
• 1:10:36
  SPEAKER_02: a blue state than it used to be when it comes to governor, but it's still...
• 1:10:40
  SPEAKER_02: It's still easier to do than when a Senate race,
• 1:10:43
  SPEAKER_02: which maybe makes the fact that the Senate race is so competitive,
• 1:10:47
  SPEAKER_02: makes it really striking given where things are.
• 1:10:50
  SPEAKER_02: So I guess just to close out with Iowa,
• 1:10:54
  SPEAKER_02: I mainly wanted to talk about the Senate governor's races,
• 1:10:56
  SPEAKER_02: but you did mention that there's like three competitive congressional races.
• 1:11:01
  SPEAKER_02: So I feel like I'd be remiss not to at least briefly ask your thoughts on,
• 1:11:05
  SPEAKER_02: I just saw that It looks like some Republicans have pulled money out of
• 1:11:09
  SPEAKER_02: the first district where Mariannette Miller-Meeks is running.
• 1:11:12
  SPEAKER_02: The fact that you do have three competitive house races in Iowa.
• 1:11:14
  SPEAKER_02: Iowa is like one of the centers of the political universe yet again in this election.
• 1:11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 1:11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Sleep on Iowa at your own risk.
• 1:11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Again, that independent redistricting commission Iowa has been immune from some
• 1:11:27
  SPEAKER_00: of these gerrymandering attempts that we've seen in other states.
• 1:11:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so there there are still three of the four congressional districts.
• 1:11:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I think going into this this election,
• 1:11:37
  SPEAKER_00: people were really focused on the first and the third.
• 1:11:39
  SPEAKER_00: But given the environment,
• 1:11:40
  SPEAKER_00: the second has emerged as a much more competitive race
• 1:11:43
  SPEAKER_00: than I think people really Probably most people would have given it credit for at
• 1:11:48
  SPEAKER_00: the start of this.
• 1:11:48
  SPEAKER_00: And so we've seen,
• 1:11:50
  SPEAKER_00: as you mentioned,
• 1:11:51
  SPEAKER_00: national Republicans have pulled some money from the first district
• 1:11:54
  SPEAKER_00: where Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking re-election.
• 1:11:56
  SPEAKER_00: And she's had very close elections her entire career, including famously by six votes in
• 1:12:02
  SPEAKER_02: 2020.
• 1:12:04
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the most close election, I think, of that cycle, certainly.
• 1:12:09
  SPEAKER_00: And so that was always going to be a tough race.
• 1:12:12
  SPEAKER_00: And they brought back the Democrat who's run against her before and so has kind
• 1:12:17
  SPEAKER_00: of built grown into into that district and become more well known.
• 1:12:21
  SPEAKER_00: And so so that one is very much on people's radar,
• 1:12:26
  SPEAKER_00: the third district where Representative Zach Nunn is seeking reelection.
• 1:12:30
  SPEAKER_00: He's another one.
• 1:12:30
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned the Iowa Republicans who voted to support the War Powers Resolution.
• 1:12:36
  SPEAKER_00: He and Mariannette Miller and Meeks both joined with Democrats on that one.
• 1:12:40
  SPEAKER_00: And so an example, I think, of recognizing the swing district that he's in.
• 1:12:44
  SPEAKER_00: And then the second district is open because Ashley Hinson is running for the U.S. Senate.
• 1:12:49
  SPEAKER_00: And so perhaps became more competitive because there was no incumbent there.
• 1:12:53
  SPEAKER_00: So I think that district especially will be really interesting to watch.
• 1:12:59
  SPEAKER_00: If that district swings on Election Day,
• 1:13:01
  SPEAKER_00: then we're really looking at a different kind of election night.
• 1:13:06
  SPEAKER_02: Well, this was a fabulous overview of what's going on in Iowa.
• 1:13:09
  SPEAKER_02: So Brianne, I really appreciate you taking the time to speak with me about this.
• 1:13:14
  SPEAKER_02: Again, this is Brianne Pfannenstiel, the chief politics reporter at the Des Moines Register.
• 1:13:20
  SPEAKER_02: Brianne, people can find your work at the Des Moines Register.
• 1:13:25
  SPEAKER_02: And all the great political coverage.
• 1:13:28
  SPEAKER_02: Before you know it, it'll be 2028 cycle.
• 1:13:30
  SPEAKER_02: I guess, you know, you're definitely not going to.
• 1:13:32
  SPEAKER_02: It's like I'm sitting here being like,
• 1:13:34
  SPEAKER_02: all right, well,
• 1:13:34
  SPEAKER_02: I know people will be announcing for president and that'll be fun and all,
• 1:13:38
  SPEAKER_02: but at least maybe I'll get like a couple of weeks or a few weeks that you're like,
• 1:13:42
  SPEAKER_02: nah, people will be starting campaigns for president.
• 1:13:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's the day after the editors have already ordered up the It's Caucus Season stories.
• 1:13:49
  SPEAKER_00: So stay tuned.
• 1:13:52
  SPEAKER_02: Well,
• 1:13:52
  SPEAKER_02: I wish you the best of luck with that and obviously the rest of the 2026 election,
• 1:13:56
  SPEAKER_02: one election at a time as best we can.
• 1:13:58
  SPEAKER_02: It's hard to do, especially if you're in Iowa.
• 1:14:01
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me.
• 1:14:02
  SPEAKER_02: Yes, thank you so much for coming on.
• 1:14:05
  [music]