Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/1/26: Iran Bombs Bahrain Amazon, US Allies Warn Of Disaster, Robert Pape On Iran Gaining Power, Mass Layoffs

Transcript

4/1/26: Iran Bombs Bahrain Amazon, US Allies Warn Of Disaster, Robert Pape On Iran Gaining Power, Mass Layoffs · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 4: We had some tech issues in the studio this morning,
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• 0:41
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• 1:39
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So actually maybe you should just do it now,
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: so big show. Donald Trump announced last night he is
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: giving a speech and addressed to the nation with updates
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: about the Iran war this evening. Well we all wait
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: for on just the edge of our seats Ryan for
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: that to happen, many many updates to go through. So
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: Trump was taking questions yesterday that gave us some indication
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: to the extent as possible of where his head might
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: be out. We have quotes and videos from that to
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: go through. Also an announcement from Iran that they are
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: now going to target major US tech companies in the
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: Gulf region. Already there are a lot of major tech
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: companies who also double as defense contractors, not really double
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: as defense contractors, a huge source of their business. We're
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: going to get into this and just a moment, there's
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: a preview of it up on your screen right now.
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: So the uh, the escalation trap. Actually, speaking of the
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: escalation trap, we're going to have Robert pape Back on
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: the show. But that gives you some sense of how
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: quickly the escalation trap is escalating, just looking at all
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: of those company logos on the screen. So we will
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: have pape Back on to go through updates and understand
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: where they fit into his paradigm of how this war
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: is going to is likely to unfold. RNT some economic updates,
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: big big layoffs at Oracle yesterday.
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: Yep, and nobody can get helium. Asia and Europe are
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: shutting down as if it's COVID again, and the UK
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: says they have one more tanker of jet fuel coming
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: and after that they're out. That should be fine for them.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: It's not like they have a tunnel. They can get
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: to Paris, right, they don't have to fly.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: No, there's nothing to worry about.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they'll be fine.
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: Everything's in good shape, all according to plan.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: And you're also going to bring us some updates about
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: a little guy in Cuba.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: Yes, so a week and a half ago we were
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: in Cuba with and we tore a hospital with Liza
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: Leva Fernandez, a Cuban journalist, and Brace Belden, American journalists
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: and co host of the True noonn podcast. We're going
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: to have both of them on today. Absolutely like fascinating story.
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: A Russian oil tanker broke Trump's oil blockade and is
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: now unloading it's fossil cargo at the port of Havana,
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: and we'll talk about what that means and what it
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: means for Cuba and for the healthcare system there.
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: And one really compelling story of.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: Going to be a compelling You're gonna I don't want
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: to don't want to spoil it, but it's good stuff.
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: It'll be a little bit of heartwarming content, which we
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: don't normally do, and indeed, the next block will be
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: anything but heartwarming. We're going to cover the updates from
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: former DHS Secretary Christy Nome, who we now know was
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: vulnerable to an enormous potential blackmail for that. We're going
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: to have updates on this awful, sad, kind of funny
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: at the same time story about Christi Nom's husband Brian
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: being high cross dresser.
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, she's basically trying to mimic the FBI directory warmer.
• 4:40
  Speaker 6: I don't know.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying anything about cash the old one Hoover.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: Yes, And one underdiscussed element of this is probably also
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: how it seems to have unraveled in the media. Looks
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: like there was an interesting tip coming from a person
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: perhaps aggrieved by the innustrition's immigration policy. So we will
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: have breakdowns on that for everyone and Bob behar run
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: And this was a great interview we did yesterday. Fascinating interview.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, interesting, kind of a legendary CIA case officer turned author.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Bob Bear, it's going to be on the show.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: He's you can Wikipedia, and he's got quite quite an
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: incredible life story, including they tried to prosecute him for
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: planning to assassinate Sodom Hussein and his defense was I
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: was doing it as part of my day job for
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: the CIA, and they're like, oh, okay, you're good.
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: Then yeah it Listen, you can't prosecute someone for doing
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: their job.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: I mean you probably should maybe, but we're not going
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: to put it that way.
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: Well remightder. We are on the cuspier of two millions,
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: so go ahead be that two millionth subscriber will appreciate it.
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: It helps us support our independent journalism that we do here,
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: which we of course think is very important in times
• 5:59
  Speaker 5: like the is where the legacy media is failing you
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: just about every single day. So appreciate it. Now, let's
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: get onto the show and update. Just as we started
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: filming this morning, Ryan, which is a zero, we can
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: put this up on the screen. Reports now that Iran
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: has struck Amazon and servers hosting Amazon Web services in Bahrain,
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: literally just breaking this morning.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: So, Bahrain of course is plays host to the fifth
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: Fleet and so they are the only country, the only
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: golf country that hasn't even tried to deny that they
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: are allowing the United States to launch operations against Iran
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: from there.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: They have a.
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: Population that is pretty generally in general supportive of Iran,
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: but they are that population is occupied by the current dictatorship.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: All of our allies there basically dictators And so if
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: you put up a one here. Yesterday, the IRGC said,
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: if there are future assassinations of Iranian officials, these are
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: the tech companies that we consider to be involved in
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: these assassination programs and which we will then attack directly.
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: And we were warning all of the employees in the
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: region that they need to work from home if you're
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: engaged in assassination plots.
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: Now, you know, as Amazon is not on there.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: They had previously said that Amazon was a legitimate target
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: because of its involvement with these assassination programs. And also
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: they don't always announce every single one. Sometimes they'll announce
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: these lists, lists, and then they'll go and hit those.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: Well, Trump was asked about this and then we can
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: talk about it. So in the Oval office, Trump was
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: asked by a journalist, what do you think about the
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: fact that Iran is now saying it's going to respond
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: to assassinations.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: Did they even bring up the assassinations in the Western press.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: You kind of often leave out the for the adversarial action.
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: It's just kind of comes out of nowhere. Let's let's see,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: I don't I don't actually remember. Let's roll a one
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: B radiant government threatened a bunch of US companies today
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: in the region, including Google, Apple with.
• 8:14
  Speaker 7: What what are they threatening them with? PB guns? Or
• 8:18
  Speaker 7: they don't how much you left to threaten? My question
• 8:20
  Speaker 7: for you is are you I don't know? I mean,
• 8:22
  Speaker 7: what are they you made to say? What are they
• 8:25
  Speaker 7: threatening them with? I don't know? Tell me how did
• 8:28
  Speaker 7: they threaten them?
• 8:29
  Speaker 8: Well, I know they threaten them, sir?
• 8:30
  Speaker 7: What does that mean? He said something? Next?
• 8:34
  Speaker 9: Yeah, he's the government touched with these companies.
• 8:37
  Speaker 7: You're helping to backstop them. You don't even know what
• 8:39
  Speaker 7: the threat was. What was the threat? I haven't heard of.
• 8:42
  Speaker 7: What was the threat? Did they say they're going to
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: blow them up? They're going to hit them? They're not,
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: you know what they're not gonna do. They're not going
• 8:47
  Speaker 7: to hit them with a nuclear weapon. No, Ron's age.
• 8:53
  Speaker 7: You see issues warning that they will target.
• 8:55
  Speaker 9: Eighteen US technology companies. If the US continues targeted assassinations.
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: Of ronny leaders, take getting money, go first this company.
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: Maybe most of those people are dead already. When negotiating
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: with them right now, they've been again.
• 9:09
  Speaker 7: We have had regime change.
• 9:10
  Speaker 6: No regime change was not one of the things I
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: had as a goal. I had one goal. They will
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: They will not have nuclear weapons. When we feel that
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: they are for a long period of time put into
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: the Stone ages and they won't be able to come
• 9:29
  Speaker 6: up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave. Whether we
• 9:34
  Speaker 6: have a deal or not, it's irrelevant. We'll be leaving
• 9:36
  Speaker 6: very soon. And if France or some other country wants
• 9:40
  Speaker 6: to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the
• 9:45
  Speaker 6: Strait and Hormost straight. They'll go right up there and
• 9:50
  Speaker 6: they'll be able to fend for themselves. I think it'll
• 9:52
  Speaker 6: be very safe, actually, But we have nothing to do
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: with that. What happens is the Strait, we're not going
• 9:57
  Speaker 6: to have anything to do with because these countries, China,
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful
• 10:03
  Speaker 6: ships and they'll leave and they'll take care of themselves.
• 10:06
  Speaker 7: There's no reason for us to do it.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: And I don't mean to pick on that particular reporter, Emily,
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: but it is actually a perfect example of the way
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: that the American public ends up being kind of misinformed
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: about the nature of our adversaries. So often their actions
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: are presented without context, and in this case, it's just
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: they're threatening to bomb these tech companies.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Why why are they? Why are they doing it?
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: They're doing it because they say, you should stop assassinating
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: our officials, stop assessing our officials. We won't do this
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: because Trump had to play this like such a dummy,
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: I don't understand how these things work.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: Hard.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Then the second reporter like, just read directly from the
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: ier GC, so if you've watched the whole thing, you
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: do get the context that they're talking about this set.
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: And then he's like, well, how are they How are
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: they going to tell you?
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: I can't imagine.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm not a military expert, but probably
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: by bombing them. And then within an hours they bombed
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: Amazon in Bahrain.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: Trump was really chippy in that question where he gets asked, eventually,
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: are you worried about it? No, which is not at
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: all what you take from the tone of that exchange
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: about whether or not he's worried, actually.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: Could he's not worried?
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: Right?
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: Could we put a one backup on the screen, because
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: I want to just go through a little bit with
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: these these logos. So if you're listening to this, it's
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: some companies that you might not expect meta you probably
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: definitely expect Nvidio, Oracle, Palenteer, Google, Boeing, Microsoft, IBM, JP Morgan. Interestingly,
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: I mean it's not surprising, but JP Morgan does have
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: defense contracts HP. If people don't know about HP in
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: the Pentagon, that's a long standing relationship Apple. I mean,
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: just some of the most major American companies that I
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: don't know, right, And I think people don't realize how
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: involved some of these companies that you don't ever think
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: of as Pentagon contractors are. And all that is just
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: to say, when you go to war, you are putting
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: so much more on the line. It's not just another
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: step in your foreign policy on paper, it's actually like
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: a whole of society, a whole of government and private
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: sector effort. And that's where it seemed like a lot
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: of people were just kind of breezing over this news yesterday,
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: and here we wake up to a strike on Amazon
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: and Bahrain.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: And since these assassinations don't actually strategically work anyway, maybe
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: we should just like stop doing them.
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: Well, And that's the other thing that we kind of
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: breezed over is the not even the ethics isn't the
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: right word, because I wouldn't expect the media to ever
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: discuss the ethics of an assassination, but even the legality
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: and the legitimacy of that is an act of war.
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: Military experts have serious debates about that. It's not actually
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: just a give and so to your point about including
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: the context and the question, it's it's essential to understanding
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: what's happening right now.
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and we talked to we'll talk to Bob Baar
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: about this later, CIA case officer who has been involved
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: in planning assassinations and who was written about assassinations, and
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: he too thinks that it's counter just counter productive. Setting
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: aside the morality of just kind of killing people, it's
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: like also trying to imagine from our perspective, let's say
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: they went out and they killed hegseeth like that doesn't
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: actually stop the Pentagon from operating, right, And what what
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: a lot of Iranians have said is that some of
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: the most incompetent people had ridden to the top, had
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: risen to the top and needed to be fired, but
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: couldn't be fired, and so then Israel killed them and
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: they're replaced by more competent people. Like that's that's a
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: that's a thing, like it is certainly possible that if
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: Iran did that to our Pentagon and people rose up
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: from the ranks, Pentagon.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Could be more efficient. Might might be?
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Might there's no guarantee that you've made it worse by
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: just in cold blood murdering people.
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: Or that you've made your own well to your point,
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: does it make Iran weaker? Or does it make Iran
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: more chaotic and.
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: More of a risk for your Pentagon? Would be like
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: hag seth, what's the compromise?
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: Oh my gosh, So speaking of our Pentagon, let's go
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: ahead and put this next element up on the screen.
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: We're seeing here the Nimitz class US Navy aircraft carry
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: USS George H. W. Bush has departed from Norfolk, Virginia
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: as of yesterday on a scheduled deployment. The ship and
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: IT strike group are likely en route to relieve the
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: USS Gerald R Ford Carrier strike group in Europe. Really,
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: I was going to say striking, but that would be
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: like I didn't mean it as a pun, but striking.
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: To see this right, everybody check your lint traps, you
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: know the last one. Does anybody out there believe the
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: story that it was really just ant like a fire
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: or whatever that just randomly sparked on the gerald Ford
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: on the jailed Ford that has it now out of
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: commission for like ever. The Ryan Grimm theory is that
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: they either sabotage or they got struck and aren't admitting it.
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: Or your theory is also that they really don't want
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: to be there.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well sabotaging, they definitely don't want to be there.
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: But then the sabotage the ship by a laundry, which
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: is one way to do it. We can put the
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: next element up on the screen. This is a drop
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: site post us Embasis to coordinate with Pentagon Psyopsy in
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: it and Elon Musk. We should also mention that when
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: we were listing out those big tech companies before, Tesla
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: was one of them. Again not surprising, but if Elon
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: Musk were still in our government in the same capacity,
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: that he was at this exact time last year. Ryan,
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: I think what many people who are following the story
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: closely understood, which is that he's so deeply intertwined at
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: almost every layer of our national security actually our government overall,
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: but especially the national security apparatus. This post from drop
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: site makes that very clear. It's about a guardian story,
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: but man, what might elon Musk's motivations and all of
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: this hubbooth?
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: And what's what's funniest about this whole thing is that
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: this is the Pentagon basically super worked up that they
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: keep getting community notes on Twitter on their posts because
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: they live on Twitter, like they're still there, and they
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: hate it when people successfully community note one of their posts.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: And so this is an effort to.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: Deploy the resources and the manpower of the Pentagon to
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: fight back against community notes on Twitter. And they said
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: they're going to and they're gonna use kind of credible
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: local allies too. It's because it's kind of you know,
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: I think it's hard for them when they're just rolling
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: out their own stooges and flunkeys to sound credible. So
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: they're like, we got to find some more credible voices,
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: and we got to downvote these community notes. So the
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: war effort is going very solidly.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: Starlink is not a non factor in this war. Tesla
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: is now one of the companies that the IRGC has
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: said that it's targeting. And so the flow of information
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: domestically is not nothing extremely significant. And so this is
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: the State Department. This is a cable from the State Department.
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: I'm reading from the Guardian report here. Quote signed by
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: the Secretary of State Mark Arubio on Monday and obtained
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: by the Guardian also suggests embassies and consulates work alongside
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: the US military's Psychological Operations Unit to address the problem
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: rynd's laughing of rampant disinformation. It lays out a sweeping
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: set of instructions for how embassy staff should push back
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: against what it describes as coordinated foreign efforts to undermine
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: American interests abroad.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: The down voting will continue until morale improves. Yes, excellent, perfect.
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: So Pete Haigsath was asked, so why are we doing
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: this and how long are we going to do it for?
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: And if you want to feel comforted before Trump comforts
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: us again this evening at nine pm, let's.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: Throw a little bit of our war Secretary, here.
• 17:59
  Speaker 10: Out a question I'm going to answer, or the President
• 18:02
  Speaker 10: has said definitively, we have our own goals and guidance
• 18:04
  Speaker 10: and things were military objectives that we're moving toward and
• 18:07
  Speaker 10: things that we look at. And as he's articulated, you know,
• 18:10
  Speaker 10: he said four to six weeks, six to eight weeks, three,
• 18:14
  Speaker 10: It could be any any particular number, but we would
• 18:17
  Speaker 10: never reveal precisely what it is because our goal is
• 18:20
  Speaker 10: to finish those objectives and we're well on our way.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: Excellent, Okay, mister War Secretary. What about opening the Strait
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: of Hormos?
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Is opening the straight an essential objective to Operation Epic Fury?
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: Or is that the job of those other countries and.
• 18:36
  Speaker 10: Our core objectives from this podium from day one, from me,
• 18:39
  Speaker 10: from the Chairman, from the President, from the Vice President,
• 18:42
  Speaker 10: from Secretary of Rubio and others have been clear, defense,
• 18:46
  Speaker 10: missile production and missile programs, so their entire missile program,
• 18:51
  Speaker 10: defense industrial base and production, ability to build, and navy
• 18:55
  Speaker 10: and power projection, so those of and then of course
• 18:58
  Speaker 10: rapping it all is Aron's never gonna have a nuclear
• 19:00
  Speaker 10: So those have been very clear. Defeating the Navy's a
• 19:02
  Speaker 10: core part of ensuring they can't project that kind of power.
• 19:05
  Speaker 10: But ultimately, I think the President's truth this morning lays
• 19:08
  Speaker 10: that out very well. That this strait of Horrmon's issue,
• 19:11
  Speaker 10: which we've set the conditions for success and we will
• 19:14
  Speaker 10: make sure Iran knows that very clearly, is not just
• 19:18
  Speaker 10: the United States of America problem set. We've been willing
• 19:21
  Speaker 10: to lead. President Trump's led the entire time, but it's
• 19:24
  Speaker 10: not just us. So ultimately, I think other countries should
• 19:26
  Speaker 10: pay attention when the President speaks. He's proven that when
• 19:29
  Speaker 10: he speaks, he means something, and he's pointing out you know,
• 19:33
  Speaker 10: might might want to start learning how to fight for yourself.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: What I love about this guy is that he is
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: the most obvious sees get degrees frat boy that's ever
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: risen to like this level of power, And to.
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: Hear him maybe who's ever risen on camera so much
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: to this level of power.
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: To hear him say we've set the conditions for success,
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: to explain his failure is just so delightful.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: It's just such an amazing turn.
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: We've did I get a B on the test? No,
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: but I set the conditions for success. I did not succeed,
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: And that is your fault, and if you want to succeed,
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: you should go ahead and succeed. What I did is
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: I set the conditions for success.
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: Yes, but he's also having to explain the conditions his boss,
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: the commander in chief, sets for success that are constantly
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: shifting and impossible to pin down. Likely even if you're
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: his war secretary. I mean, that's a job nobody's going
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: to want. That makes an already impossible job even harder.
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: And it's so embarrassing.
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: When it comes to this straight of her move's issue.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: We have set the conditions for success. Reminder, on February
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: twenty eighth, when the US launched a surprise attack on Iran,
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: blowing up our negotiations and blowing up a girls school
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: and killing at least one hundred and sixty five little
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: girls and their teachers, the strait of her moves was open.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Now it's not, but heg Seth.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Has set the conditions for success. Who is going to
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: take us over the top to success none other than
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: the United Arab Emirates.
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: We can put up a seven here.
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: The Amoradis are saying that they want to join in
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: the fight. They have bought a whole bunch of fancy
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: f fifteen's. They've trained up their pilots. They famously have
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: a couple of female fighter pilots which.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: They used against Isis.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: It was their big kind of propaganda effort to say, look,
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: you know, look at how progressive and oping forward thinking
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: we are.
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: Not just that they can drive cars, they.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: Can even drive fighter jets. So they won in they
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: won in on the action. The UAE has been pushing
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: for a strike against Iran. I believe it's a twenty
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: ten or twenty eleven yusuf Allo Taba at the Aspen
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Institute let slip at the time that he wanted the
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: US to bomb Iran. That was a big scandal at
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: the time, created this rift between him and the golf
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: countries in Iran.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: Ambassadors were recalled, et cetera. But it has been part
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: of their.
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: Their national security strategy to attack Iran for now going
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: on about at least fifteen years.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: They finally get what they want.
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: It's complete catashi for them, probably marks the end of
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: the era of Dubai as we know it. But now
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: and they recognize that, they recognize that if Iran fit
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: ends this conflict in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: They're going to just tax the hell out of Dubai.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: And you know, how are they then going to have
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: indoor skiing?
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, I don't. This is where the speech
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: that Donald Trump is set to deliver tonight is very
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: interesting because the timing. I'm curious Ryan if you think
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: some of it is that Trump is trying to mitigate like,
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: as you just said, this could be the end of
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: Dubai as we know it and not applies to not
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: just Dubai but other golf states. So what seems possible
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: is that Trump is trying to mitigate the obvious fallout
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: that was utterly predictable, but he's trying to kind of
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: stench the bleeding by coming up with a way to
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: like say the I mean, he's keeps saying the war
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: is over, but to deliver a formal address to the
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: nation saying we're done. It's over. Mission accomplished.
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: We'll see.
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: And then because we have a three day weekend, the
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: markets are closed on Friday, then maybe he launches another
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: surprise attack. Like it's almost not even worth listening to
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: the guy, and Robert Pepe is going to talk about that.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: I think when we have him on.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: Okay, you can listen to him, like if you don't
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: have anything else to do, but do not credit what
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: he says as meaningful. I think Carolyn Levin had a
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: great quote yesterday where she said, when the president says something,
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: it means something, well sense, but it doesn't necessarily mean
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: what he said. Yes, it might mean something, but then
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: you have redefined the word meaning.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: Well, this is what he wrote about an art of
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: the deal, Like he uses words to negotiate, Like he
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: uses meaning to your point, like that's an intentional We
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: talked about this all the time. It's a happy Liberation
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: Day anniversary to all who celebrate. We talked about this
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: all of the time in the wake of Original Liberation
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: Day last April second, which is it's to some extent
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: you can understand how in business deals, talking like that
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: is a tool and an advantage. If it goes on
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: for a year on tariffs, and then it's going on
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: for weeks in a war. It's not like you're just
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: building a new casino. So obviously not like you're just
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: building a new casino, and yet it's where we find ourselves.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: As a senior Administration official put it to Axios this morning, quote,
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: this isn't three D chess, it's twelve dimensional. He contradicts
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: Right, it's on purpose.
• 24:56
  Speaker 7: Right.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: Well, the world is just.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: Kind of moving on and just trying to say, okay,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: you know what we actually we don't know what this
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: guy is doing. Yeah, but we got to prepare ourselves
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: for what is obviously coming, which.
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: Again, by the way, streme hardship.
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: That again, by the way, is very similar to what
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: certain major companies and countries have bet on with Liberation Day,
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: and the negotiating principle has been very similar to create
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: a totally unpredictable environment, so much so that people bet
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: on the United States. This is like steel manning. The
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: way Donald Trump would describe this chaotic if you even
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: described it in a way that was coherent. But this
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: is the Steelman argument behind his threats that are all
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: over the map, and what we're seeing is the opposite
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: of the intended effect, even when you try to understand
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: those intentions, which is like you nearly skeetty to a wall.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, that Steelman is still being made.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: With foreign steel manufacturing jobs way down over the past year.
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: The decline is slower than it happened.
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: Okay, well there we go. Good for Trump, all right.
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: So Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister and Anthony albani Is
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: the Australian Prime Minister, are out there freaking everybody out
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: because they are absolutely freaked out. Europe is, the Europe
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: and Asia are basically moving into like redos of COVID
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: lockdowns at this point when it comes to energy usage, we,
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: because we're a little bit down the pipeline, haven't quite
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: started to experience what they're experiencing now. But let's roll
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: cure of Starmer just to get a sense of oh
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: this is this is getting real.
• 26:30
  Speaker 9: It is now clear that the impact of this war
• 26:33
  Speaker 9: will affect the future of our country. So today I
• 26:38
  Speaker 9: want to reassure the British people that no matter how
• 26:42
  Speaker 9: fierce this storm, we are well placed to weather it
• 26:46
  Speaker 9: a that we have a long term plan to emerge
• 26:49
  Speaker 9: from it a stronger, a more secure nation. First, let
• 26:56
  Speaker 9: me say once again, this is not our war. We
• 27:02
  Speaker 9: will not be drawn into the conflict that is not
• 27:06
  Speaker 9: in our national interest. And the most effective way we
• 27:11
  Speaker 9: can support the cost of living in Britain is to
• 27:15
  Speaker 9: push for de escalation in the Middle East and a
• 27:18
  Speaker 9: reopening of the straight up hole moves and.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: So that comes after the kind of conservative Prime Minister
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: of Italy Maloney said that the US can't use its
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: basis or fly over for the war effort, and the
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: left wing government of Spain has said the same. Anthony
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: alban Is in Australia also warning his country.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: That yeah, things are getting rough. That's all eight ten.
• 27:40
  Speaker 11: Making sure that we are prepared so that if the
• 27:43
  Speaker 11: global situation gets worse and our fuel supplies are seriously
• 27:47
  Speaker 11: disrupted over the long term, we can coordinate the next
• 27:51
  Speaker 11: steps together. Today we cut the fuel excise in half,
• 27:56
  Speaker 11: cuttying the text on every leader of petrol by twenty
• 27:59
  Speaker 11: six sense. Those savings have started showing up at your
• 28:04
  Speaker 11: petrol station for our truck is. We have cut the
• 28:07
  Speaker 11: heavy vehicle roads us A charge to zero. Both these
• 28:11
  Speaker 11: measures will be in place for the next three months.
• 28:14
  Speaker 11: And if you're hitting the road, don't take more fuel
• 28:17
  Speaker 11: than you need. Just fill up like you normally would
• 28:20
  Speaker 11: think of others in your community, in the bush and
• 28:23
  Speaker 11: in critical industries and overcoming weeks, if you can switch
• 28:27
  Speaker 11: to catching the train or bus or tram to work,
• 28:30
  Speaker 11: do so that builds our reserves, and it saves fuel
• 28:34
  Speaker 11: for people who have no choice but to drive, and
• 28:37
  Speaker 11: all those shift workers and nurses who do so much
• 28:41
  Speaker 11: for our country. The months ahead may not be easy.
• 28:45
  Speaker 11: I want to be upfront about that.
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: All right, Emily, So the entire world is rationing.
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: Fuel now, I don't see what could go wrong.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: Doesn't seem great. So there was also a related development which.
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: Sorry, I just like that effects across of it, needs
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: me to say that, but that affects the cost absolutely everything.
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: We're and we're moving from the cost of things to
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: the existence of things.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: This is bleak and again for what.
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: And this is where I think Israel does not quite
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: recognize what it's gotten itself into. Because the publics in Australia,
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: in Asia and South America, in the UK and Europe,
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: and when it hits US in the United States are
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: going to understand that, whether you want to blame Trump
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: for going along with it or not, Israel wanted this war.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: Israel very clearly and publicly and for decades wanted this war.
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: They got it. We're all paying for it. So last
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: night AOC met with the U, met with DSA to
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: go over their kind of reindorsement process. It's a very
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: cool democratic process that they have. And what emerge from
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: it are two significant shifts. One she said she would
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: in the future always vote against what's known as the
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: IHRA definition of anti Semitism, which says that any criticism
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: of criticism of Israel is also then therefore anti Semitic.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: And she said, no, I will vote against that. That
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: should not be enshrined.
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: She also said, and we can put up a eight
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: here that she will no longer will the quote is
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: she's committed to voting against quote any spending on arms
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: for Israel, including so called defensive capabilities. And this had
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: been a flashpoint because for years she had supported whether
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: or not she had voted for it or not, she's
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: kind of supported the idea of iron dome and other
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: quote unquote defensive weapons for Israel. She has tried relentlessly
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: to chart what she understood to be kind of a
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: reasonable middle ground where she could be seen and taken
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: seriously by all sides and could help to be some
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: kind of conciliator or you know, bringing people together here
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: that she would say, you know, innocent Israelis should not
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: be subject to you know, indiscriminate rocket attacks. What she's
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: finding here clearly is that that's just not a sustainable
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: position with Israel kind of lashing out constantly around the region.
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: Well, I was going to say, actually, it gets to
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: the point you were just making about it. I mean,
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: you just said Israel doesn't not necessarily know what it's
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: unleashed by provoking this war for so long. And there
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: are plenty of people in the American government who have
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: also been provoking and trying to bring us into this
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: war for years as well. Because I imagine for AOC, I mean,
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know how you've done extensive reporting on this.
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know how Sincere that middle ground position was,
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: But this is clearly Sincere. I mean, I think this
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: sounds like the authentic AOC. Actually, I think it was
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: very Sincere.
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: I think that she genuinely thought that she could be
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: somebody that could bridge these camps because she thought she
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: could have credibility with both sides. You know, she was
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: ruthlessly attacked by APAK and its allies, and so there
• 32:22
  Speaker 4: was no political benefit to trying to play this reconciliation
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: role and there and there was only then criticism from
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: the other side. And then what does Israel do with
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: our endless quote unquote defensive weapons. They're invading and occupying Lebanon,
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: They're trying to annext the West Bank, they start a
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: war with Iran. They refused to like move to phase
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: two with with gods and allow any reconstruction or reasonable aid.
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: They carried a genocide there.
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: So at some point you're like, you know what, there's
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: no political benefit for this. The country won't go a
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: week without going to war or invading one of its neighbors,
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: and so why am I going to kind of drag
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: my own potential presidential campaign down over an issue that
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: where I don't get any credit for it.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: Anyway, the incentive structure has changed. This is an an
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: indication of how the politics have changed.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and tough. This is be tough for Gavin Newsom.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: I think it could.
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: It'll challenge Rocanna, who I think has still been supportive
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: of quote unquote defensive weapons. It's going to be like, well,
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: because the public is not going to when the public
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: is looking at one hundred and fifty dollars barrel five
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: six dollars gas, they're not going to want to hear
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: about these distinctions about offensive and defensive weapons. So like
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: they're just using our weapons to create chaos and expand.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Their territory in the Middle East. Why should we keep
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: doing that?
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: Is I think what you're going to hear from the
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: public and definitely from Democratic primary voters.
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: Well, let's get now to Professor Robert Pape, who's going
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: to brief us on the Escalation Trap. Well, as we
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: mentioned earlier in the show, Donald Trump plans to address
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: the nation on the Iran war with a quote update
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: at nine pm Eastern live tonight. Now we're joined once
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: again by Professor Robert Pape, has been on with Crystal
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: and Sager and is of course author of the Escalation
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: Trap substack, where he's going to be doing a live
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: briefing on Saturday, and wrote, actually, just like nine hours ago,
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: according to substack, I don't know you've got enough sleep,
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: Professor Pape, that Trump mayson yeh war, Oh gosh, that's
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: not enough. Trump may say the war is over. He's wrong.
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: Professor Pape, of course, is professor political science at the
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: University of Chicago. You can and should follow the Escalation
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: Trap on substack. Professor, thanks so much for joining us.
• 34:51
  Speaker 8: Thank you very much for having me. You accommodate my
• 34:54
  Speaker 8: schedule here. I really appreciate that, and I'm also delighted
• 34:58
  Speaker 8: to speak to the audience here again, which is so crucial.
• 35:03
  Speaker 8: Your audiences is so important, and I just couldn't thank
• 35:07
  Speaker 8: you enough.
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: Well, thank you, And we wanted to start with this
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: clip of Benjamin Netanyahu talking about what Israel's goal for
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: the region might be after the war. Obviously two nuclear
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: or one nuclear nation, potentially trying to thwart another nuclear
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: nation from growing, which has been the focus of your
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: entire career, professor, So let's go ahead and roll the clip.
• 35:34
  Speaker 12: This is the guarantee for our future. We are working
• 35:37
  Speaker 12: on transforming Israel into a super nation in the region
• 35:42
  Speaker 12: and globally, and we were able to do so thanks
• 35:46
  Speaker 12: to our soldiers and our captains and all those who
• 35:51
  Speaker 12: fought and those who died, and of course thanks to
• 35:54
  Speaker 12: your solidarity and your steadfastness.
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: So, Professor, the title, as I just read of your
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: post on the escalation trap is Trump may say the
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: war is over, he's wrong. Is this why you think
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: if Trump tries to say the war is over, he's wrong.
• 36:08
  Speaker 8: Yes, Yes, what we're going to see and your listeners
• 36:11
  Speaker 8: will know I talked about three stages. We've done. Stage one,
• 36:15
  Speaker 8: we've done, we're stage two. Stage three is the ground
• 36:18
  Speaker 8: power dilemma. Well, if we don't go to the ground war,
• 36:21
  Speaker 8: that's not de escalation as many people would hope. It's
• 36:24
  Speaker 8: going to be a stage four. There's going to be
• 36:27
  Speaker 8: a continuation. And that's what I'm going to explain here
• 36:31
  Speaker 8: and also more later. So stage four, and this is
• 36:35
  Speaker 8: where Netna, who is really wrong, is about what will
• 36:39
  Speaker 8: be the new center of world power coming out of
• 36:44
  Speaker 8: this conflict. Net Nyaho said it's going to be Israel.
• 36:47
  Speaker 8: He's wrong. It's not going to be Israel. And you
• 36:51
  Speaker 8: can already see who it's going to be today, which
• 36:54
  Speaker 8: is Iran is not just controlling shipping the way people
• 36:59
  Speaker 8: were just oil prices the way people are describing Iran
• 37:04
  Speaker 8: is controlling so much world oil so much and oil
• 37:10
  Speaker 8: is so critical to world power that Iran is emerging
• 37:17
  Speaker 8: as a new global center of power. So let me
• 37:22
  Speaker 8: just explain this a moment. So before the war thirty
• 37:26
  Speaker 8: three days ago, there were three centers of world power
• 37:30
  Speaker 8: we described, We discussed the US, Russia, and China. Now,
• 37:36
  Speaker 8: why was Russia even in that mix? Because it had
• 37:39
  Speaker 8: eleven percent of the world's oil, and of course it
• 37:44
  Speaker 8: uses that for military purposes. Well, Iran now has double
• 37:52
  Speaker 8: that amount of world oil, more than any other country
• 37:56
  Speaker 8: on the planet. And what that's gonna mean seventy five
• 38:01
  Speaker 8: one hundred billion dollars a year more to put into military.
• 38:06
  Speaker 8: That nuclear enrichment is now more likely than ever to
• 38:10
  Speaker 8: become nuclear weapons. And over time, as the months and
• 38:16
  Speaker 8: the years go on, which I know we're having a
• 38:19
  Speaker 8: hard time coming to grips with the reality that's occurred
• 38:22
  Speaker 8: here is that this is going to create a new
• 38:27
  Speaker 8: center of world power and dwarf Fizral. This is you
• 38:31
  Speaker 8: can see right away. For all of our lifetimes, oil
• 38:35
  Speaker 8: has been so critical. And it's not just oil, of course,
• 38:38
  Speaker 8: it's gas, it's the energy, it's the fertilizer. This is
• 38:43
  Speaker 8: what is what Iran has now as a choke.
• 38:47
  Speaker 7: Hold on the world.
• 38:48
  Speaker 8: But it's twenty percent and there's no way you're going
• 38:52
  Speaker 8: to make up for that in the next three or
• 38:55
  Speaker 8: four years. Even if you start drilling now, it will
• 38:58
  Speaker 8: take that long. So Iran is coming out of this
• 39:03
  Speaker 8: and we've never seen this in our lifetimes. A new
• 39:07
  Speaker 8: world power center created in a month that's what's on
• 39:13
  Speaker 8: issue here. So whatever President Trump says tonight, whether he
• 39:16
  Speaker 8: wants to go forward ground war or not, all of
• 39:19
  Speaker 8: this we don't know, and he may not even know.
• 39:22
  Speaker 8: Let's face it, he's been all over the map. The reality.
• 39:26
  Speaker 8: I deal with the realities here, and what we are
• 39:28
  Speaker 8: seeing is escalation reality with strategic consequences. Those aren't over
• 39:36
  Speaker 8: because President Trump thinks he's going to stop and go
• 39:38
  Speaker 8: to Marlago and just cut himself off from the world. No,
• 39:42
  Speaker 8: the world will have to live now with this new
• 39:46
  Speaker 8: center of world power, and there's no good way to
• 39:50
  Speaker 8: deal with this. This is why I was so opposed
• 39:52
  Speaker 8: to this war. With the modeling I've been explaining, this
• 39:55
  Speaker 8: is not like this will end up being worse than Vietnam.
• 40:00
  Speaker 8: Maybe not in battle death So the fifty eight thousand
• 40:02
  Speaker 8: dead that that took ten years however, so we haven't
• 40:05
  Speaker 8: been into this ten years yet. But it's because of
• 40:08
  Speaker 8: the consequences. There was no way Vietnam was ever going
• 40:11
  Speaker 8: to become a center of world power. It had no
• 40:14
  Speaker 8: nuclear enriched material, it was not going to do shocks.
• 40:18
  Speaker 8: This one was always fundamentally different, and I realized most
• 40:24
  Speaker 8: of the world would not know that, why should they
• 40:26
  Speaker 8: know that they're not modeling this for decades? This is
• 40:30
  Speaker 8: what was always coming. And that's why I said, this
• 40:33
  Speaker 8: is the horns of a dilemma. It's a branching with
• 40:37
  Speaker 8: where we're at. It's not a well now that we
• 40:40
  Speaker 8: are going to not go forward with the ground where
• 40:43
  Speaker 8: we can all live happily. Ever after oil prices are
• 40:46
  Speaker 8: going to come down, iron's just going to give up
• 40:49
  Speaker 8: the power that I'm describing. When was a country ever
• 40:53
  Speaker 8: give up any power, let alone world power? This will
• 40:58
  Speaker 8: be my new discussion point going forward, and that's why
• 41:02
  Speaker 8: I so appreciate coming on your show to share it.
• 41:04
  Speaker 8: You got it first, basically an exclusive.
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: So I mean, do you answer the question of what
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: country would ever just voluntarily give up power?
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: Might be the United States?
• 41:14
  Speaker 8: Oh yeah, well that's what you can. So all that
• 41:17
  Speaker 8: talk of America first, Okay, I've been trying to argue
• 41:23
  Speaker 8: for America. I'm not using Trump's language. I'm not supporting that,
• 41:27
  Speaker 8: but I'm just pointing out that was always cheap sales talk,
• 41:31
  Speaker 8: cheap sales talk. So what you're getting now is the reality, sir,
• 41:35
  Speaker 8: And what you were seeing is as the for centers
• 41:39
  Speaker 8: of power. Now there are now four America is the
• 41:42
  Speaker 8: one going down, Russia going up, China is going to
• 41:46
  Speaker 8: be going up, Iron's going up, Who's going down?
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: And so we have a little breaking news on this
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: nine o'clock event that Trump is having. So when we
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: get your reaction in real time. So he did one
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: of these very brief interviews with Reuters about what he's
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: going to talk about. He told Reuters he's going to
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: express quote unquote my disgust with NATO, and it sounds
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: like it's going to be significantly a broadside against NATO.
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: And he said he's quote absolutely considering withdrawing US forces
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: from NATO. So you've spent decades, he says, modeling these
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: the escalation trap when countries get involved. I don't know
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: if you've ever had a model with this many variables.
• 42:33
  Speaker 8: Well, actually, so this is your audience is not familiar
• 42:39
  Speaker 8: with this, but that's not it is the case, sir,
• 42:42
  Speaker 8: that we deal with this. So let me explain first
• 42:44
  Speaker 8: to your audience what is NATO. Okay, NATO's not just
• 42:48
  Speaker 8: a political club, a talking club of diplomats. It's a
• 42:52
  Speaker 8: military organization with the American general at the top who
• 42:57
  Speaker 8: gives orders to the other countries' militaries. That's what NATO is, Okay,
• 43:05
  Speaker 8: it's a command structure right now today, sir, Even though
• 43:09
  Speaker 8: that still is in place, do you believe for a
• 43:11
  Speaker 8: second the British Army is going to follow General Kane
• 43:14
  Speaker 8: the American Just imagine if General Kin said, British Army,
• 43:20
  Speaker 8: you go X. That's just not happening. So what I
• 43:23
  Speaker 8: would just say is we've talked about the fading away
• 43:26
  Speaker 8: of NATO for years. We're not at that point anymore.
• 43:30
  Speaker 8: NATO is dead. NATO is in the morgue, and the
• 43:33
  Speaker 8: obituary is what's being written now, so it's already dead.
• 43:38
  Speaker 8: There's no way the Europeans are following the American generals here,
• 43:43
  Speaker 8: and I'm sorry to say, even if it's a democratic
• 43:46
  Speaker 8: president comes in, they're not. We've elected Donald Trump twice.
• 43:51
  Speaker 7: Now.
• 43:51
  Speaker 8: The idea of the Europeans are going to obey orders
• 43:54
  Speaker 8: from American general not happening. So this is really going
• 43:58
  Speaker 8: to have also major consequence because we never had to
• 44:02
  Speaker 8: worry about this problem of you know, these little dust
• 44:06
  Speaker 8: ups like on Greenland. Well, this this may be a
• 44:08
  Speaker 8: future here, and it's a horrible future. But I'm just
• 44:12
  Speaker 8: pointing out what Donald Trump has done here. This is
• 44:15
  Speaker 8: this is much larger consequences.
• 44:19
  Speaker 6: Uh.
• 44:20
  Speaker 8: And the oil shock and the energy shock is already astounding.
• 44:24
  Speaker 8: I'm explaining there's a stage four here and this is
• 44:29
  Speaker 8: this is even as astounding as it's been already in
• 44:33
  Speaker 8: thirty three days. My gosh, the next six months we're
• 44:37
  Speaker 8: gonna be this is gonna be the reverse of the
• 44:40
  Speaker 8: end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War.
• 44:43
  Speaker 8: We shot up like a rocket, Like a rocket those
• 44:47
  Speaker 8: nineties Bill Quinton's presidency. Oh my goodness, those days. Yeah, everybody,
• 44:52
  Speaker 8: you all, yeah, we all know what.
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: Boy do we.
• 44:55
  Speaker 8: Want those days back?
• 44:56
  Speaker 13: Right?
• 44:57
  Speaker 8: Well, this is the other way around. We we are
• 45:00
  Speaker 8: now on the other end of this, going the other way.
• 45:04
  Speaker 8: Forty trillion in dat Oh my gosh, Alien, I mean,
• 45:08
  Speaker 8: the the amount of trouble here. It's that's why we
• 45:13
  Speaker 8: I so appreciate again just talking to your smart on
• 45:15
  Speaker 8: It's it is, it's my favorite audience to talk to.
• 45:19
  Speaker 8: It's it's like being at the University of Chicago. You guy,
• 45:21
  Speaker 8: it's just the you're mean, it's just that that's.
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: Done up too much. They're gonna get big heads.
• 45:27
  Speaker 10: But yeah, well.
• 45:29
  Speaker 8: You and it's you got and it's also your other
• 45:31
  Speaker 8: the other folks here. I mean this, you're asking really
• 45:34
  Speaker 8: the right questions.
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: And on that point you I wanted to ask about
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: this this thread that you posted yesterday. You mentioned at
• 45:44
  Speaker 5: one point in this thread, watch the deployments as US
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: forces moved to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The region
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: is already splitting, Irack as hedging, Qatar and Oman are
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: staying neutral, Saudi and UAE are growing more alarmed. So
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: you posted that again according to X twenty two hours
• 45:58
  Speaker 5: ago this morning, that's right to.
• 45:59
  Speaker 8: The news that I came right out of class. And
• 46:02
  Speaker 8: by the way, so I'm teaching here in just a
• 46:05
  Speaker 8: few hours and essentially all my students are asking exactly
• 46:09
  Speaker 8: and my class are bursting. Okay, they're all asking all
• 46:12
  Speaker 8: of this. So that's where that's why these thoughts are there,
• 46:15
  Speaker 8: because I'm already talking to my students about these So
• 46:18
  Speaker 8: what you are seeing.
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: Oh, go ahead, Well, I was just saying, we woke
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: up this morning in news that Amazon had been hit
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: in Bahrain, and that's what you see is threatening all
• 46:25
  Speaker 5: these major defense contractors in the Golf region. And I
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: was curious from your perspective, Professor, that seems like very
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: obvious trip wires around the entire region where you could
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: end up seeing boots on the ground to potentially defend
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: those major defense contractors.
• 46:41
  Speaker 8: Well, you're seeing this that we're on the horns of
• 46:43
  Speaker 8: the dilemma. So you're seeing right there, do we defend
• 46:46
  Speaker 8: it or do we go away? You see, this is
• 46:49
  Speaker 8: what we're looking for here. And I suspect whatever President
• 46:53
  Speaker 8: Trump says tonight two weeks from now, we'll see where
• 46:57
  Speaker 8: we're really at. That's why I say follow them right now.
• 47:01
  Speaker 8: We have another carrier coming to the region, we have
• 47:05
  Speaker 8: more special forces being mobilized, We have the additional marines
• 47:10
  Speaker 8: coming until those forces literally reverse course in the water
• 47:16
  Speaker 8: and the marine muse that big hunk of metal ships
• 47:19
  Speaker 8: with all those equipment go back to Japan and go
• 47:22
  Speaker 8: back to California, and we start pulling out forces from
• 47:27
  Speaker 8: the region and moving them to other parts of the world.
• 47:31
  Speaker 8: This is not a reality the rhetoric here. We've got
• 47:34
  Speaker 8: to see that's what that deployment is. And also what
• 47:38
  Speaker 8: you're also seeing is the second point I made is
• 47:41
  Speaker 8: that Iran I warned before that as Iran's horizontal escalation
• 47:45
  Speaker 8: would continue, you would see the fracturing of the Golf States.
• 47:48
  Speaker 8: That's exactly what you're seeing. And Bahrain I explain in
• 47:52
  Speaker 8: that tweet here there's three groups in the Golf States.
• 47:56
  Speaker 8: Now there's those already bandwagoning toward that's a rock. There's
• 48:01
  Speaker 8: those that have been in the middle that is Oman
• 48:05
  Speaker 8: and cutter, and they're desperately trying to duck and avoid
• 48:09
  Speaker 8: any getting But they're in the middle. They're not pro
• 48:12
  Speaker 8: America now. And now you have the others and Bahrain UAE,
• 48:19
  Speaker 8: these have been focused here, they have some Shia, they
• 48:22
  Speaker 8: have there's real reasons to pressure those particular states, and
• 48:27
  Speaker 8: that's what you're seeing Iran doing. They're being extremely smart
• 48:31
  Speaker 8: about how they're fracturing those three pools. And what they're
• 48:36
  Speaker 8: doing is breaking the coalition. We're not growing that we
• 48:41
  Speaker 8: just talked about the Indonato. We're are coalitions falling apart
• 48:45
  Speaker 8: here and they're picking up pieces and this is the problem.
• 48:50
  Speaker 8: Russia will pick up some more pieces, China will pick
• 48:52
  Speaker 8: up some more pieces. So this is what we are
• 48:55
  Speaker 8: we are going to see more of. And I don't
• 48:58
  Speaker 8: know if city months from now, President Trump may decide
• 49:02
  Speaker 8: he wants to keep American forces and bases there. He
• 49:05
  Speaker 8: may have to fight to keep them there, just where
• 49:08
  Speaker 8: they are today. So I don't mean to grow. I
• 49:11
  Speaker 8: mean these Bahrain has a big base. They may throw
• 49:15
  Speaker 8: us out and we may have to say, well, we'll
• 49:18
  Speaker 8: have to topple the Bahrain government to keep that. Are
• 49:21
  Speaker 8: we really going to do? These are the choices President
• 49:23
  Speaker 8: Trump has put us in. Now, this is not where
• 49:26
  Speaker 8: we were thirty three days ago.
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: You had written something that it was a kind of
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: a disturbing insight, which cuts against I think of a
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: lot of the conventional thinking about how this unfolds, and
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: I think the markets in general seem to think, Okay,
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: this can't go on because it's going to destroy the
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: world like that. You know, the longer this goes on,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: the more energy volatility we have, and by volatility actually
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: just heading straight down.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: It's not even volatile, it's just down.
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: Trump will back off to clare victory because the source
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: of the problem, the source of the economic crisis, is
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: what Trump's doing, So he'll remove himself from that, therefore
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: removing the source of the instability and the crisis, and
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: we'll be back to normal. That seems to be the
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: market's assumption, which is why they haven't completely bottomed out.
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: Your argument is that that, no, this instability actually kind
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: of feeds the cyclical trap itself.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: Can you walk us through that a little bit because that, Yeah.
• 50:33
  Speaker 8: So the trap is I've explained it so far here
• 50:36
  Speaker 8: and let me just repeat that because it's very helpful,
• 50:39
  Speaker 8: is at each of those stages I described, the Americans
• 50:44
  Speaker 8: are tactically successful but strategically failing, and it's the failure
• 50:50
  Speaker 8: and the counterproductive. We're in a worse position at each
• 50:54
  Speaker 8: stage that sucks us to go deeper into the trap.
• 50:58
  Speaker 8: When I'm adding now is a new layer and that's
• 51:02
  Speaker 8: what you're you're noticing, and thank you very much again
• 51:05
  Speaker 8: smart identification of the newness.
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 51:08
  Speaker 8: What I'm adding is, and I'm really talking to JP Morgan,
• 51:12
  Speaker 8: I'm talking to Jamie Diamond. I'm talking directly to those people,
• 51:15
  Speaker 8: even though they may never have heard my.
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: Name saying that on that list yesterday, I was going
• 51:21
  Speaker 5: to say JP Morgan was on the list of defense
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: contractors that the IRGC said are now fair game in
• 51:26
  Speaker 5: the region.
• 51:27
  Speaker 8: Yes, that's that's exactly right. I'm trying to explain why
• 51:31
  Speaker 8: their assumption is fatally flawed for their business. I don't
• 51:37
  Speaker 8: just mean like cocktail chatter, okay, I'm I'm trying to
• 51:42
  Speaker 8: go to the heart of the matter. And the heart
• 51:45
  Speaker 8: of the matter is they're assuming that the root of
• 51:50
  Speaker 8: this can be snagged out by just simply Trump walking away.
• 51:55
  Speaker 8: And I've heard Jamie Dimond yesterday talking about this on Fox.
• 51:58
  Speaker 8: He's just wrong, It's just flat out wrong. And the
• 52:01
  Speaker 8: reason is because we have created through no intention, but
• 52:06
  Speaker 8: we've created a new center of world power. And Iran
• 52:12
  Speaker 8: is not going to stop trying to grow that power.
• 52:15
  Speaker 8: They're gonna want to exert more influence in the Persian Gulf,
• 52:20
  Speaker 8: and that's what you're seeing in those Amazon attacks. And
• 52:22
  Speaker 8: now absolutely they're gonna want to knock JP Morgan and
• 52:25
  Speaker 8: Amazon out. That's that's Western imperialism as they see it.
• 52:29
  Speaker 8: And they have a lot of power, and especially as
• 52:31
  Speaker 8: if Trump pulls back, they will have even more power. Then.
• 52:35
  Speaker 8: They also have growing power in Asia. I've been talking
• 52:38
  Speaker 8: to the Hong Kong of Bloomberg, hongn Kong, others in Asia.
• 52:42
  Speaker 8: So much of the oil from the Middle East goes
• 52:44
  Speaker 8: to Asia, and Asia right now is in a supply crunch,
• 52:49
  Speaker 8: not just a cost crunch. But there is in the Philippines,
• 52:53
  Speaker 8: there's two hundred million people in a supply crunch here,
• 52:56
  Speaker 8: almost the size of the United States in Asia. This
• 53:00
  Speaker 8: is generating enormous power for Iran and also in relation
• 53:07
  Speaker 8: with China, they can do more and more together. And
• 53:10
  Speaker 8: so what you're going to see here is this fundamental
• 53:14
  Speaker 8: assumption that this can all just be blown over. And
• 53:17
  Speaker 8: all we have to do is we're gonna apologize for
• 53:20
  Speaker 8: killing the Supreme Leader and yeah, Trump was stupid, and
• 53:23
  Speaker 8: then we're all gonna admit that it was just Trump. Here,
• 53:26
  Speaker 8: we're just gonna blame Trump, blame that in Yahoo, and
• 53:29
  Speaker 8: Iran's gonna just give up world power. No, And who's
• 53:33
  Speaker 8: gonna pay the price? The businesses JP, Morgan, Amazon. This
• 53:37
  Speaker 8: is gonna have mega effects because they're not up for
• 53:41
  Speaker 8: If they want ai, Auran's gonna get ai from somebody,
• 53:46
  Speaker 8: it's China. And I spent two weeks in China last
• 53:49
  Speaker 8: June touring the AI factories and and and shops on
• 53:53
  Speaker 8: the on the robot shop floor to see for myself
• 53:56
  Speaker 8: how the byds and so forth are being made. And oh,
• 53:59
  Speaker 8: my goodness, gracious, China has enormous leverage here that it
• 54:04
  Speaker 8: can share that AI with Iran, and so this idea
• 54:09
  Speaker 8: that Iran needs JP Morgan, I don't know what I
• 54:13
  Speaker 8: don't I'm miss trying to explain. This is this is
• 54:16
  Speaker 8: the fatal flaw in that thinking.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: And we have other break real quick with other breaking news.
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: The manufacturing numbers are out for March and the actual
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: is plus seven point eight points over the consensus, the
• 54:32
  Speaker 4: highest number since mid twenty twenty two.
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: This is oil.
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: Already, oil prices already funneling their way into manufacturing prices,
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: which is just another way of saying you're getting poorer.
• 54:45
  Speaker 5: And meanwhile, Professor Stocks, the market's just opened about an
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: hour ago as we're speaking here. In the CNBC headline
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: is stocks are hired to start the month as optimism
• 54:54
  Speaker 5: around Iran war ending grows.
• 54:59
  Speaker 8: Well, shure, they haven't caught up to the reality that
• 55:02
  Speaker 8: I'm explaining. They still think Iran is four percent of
• 55:06
  Speaker 8: the world's oil. They're they're they're operating as if we
• 55:10
  Speaker 8: were thirty three days ago and all that's changed is bombing.
• 55:15
  Speaker 8: So we end bombing and everything goes back to thirty
• 55:18
  Speaker 8: three days ago. There's just a flaw here. I don't
• 55:22
  Speaker 8: know quite how to explain it. There's a reality, and
• 55:26
  Speaker 8: that reality is Iran is a world power now and
• 55:31
  Speaker 8: as each week and month goes by, this will become
• 55:35
  Speaker 8: more and more evident, and at some point markets will
• 55:38
  Speaker 8: catch up. I mean markets are often you know behind.
• 55:40
  Speaker 8: I mean I always say, you know, Washington is three
• 55:45
  Speaker 8: to six months behind, and markets are typically long behind
• 55:51
  Speaker 8: more than that. That's how you get the balloon. So
• 55:53
  Speaker 8: otherwise you would not have those balloons topping. So the
• 55:56
  Speaker 8: fact the market, that's just another group of smart piece people.
• 56:00
  Speaker 8: I deal with smart people all the time. Everybody I
• 56:03
  Speaker 8: deal with has is at the University of Chicago is
• 56:06
  Speaker 8: actually really smart. So this is not about smart versus not.
• 56:10
  Speaker 8: This is about how to understand the reality that we're
• 56:14
  Speaker 8: seeing versus the hopes that we also all have. Well
• 56:22
  Speaker 8: that sucks, I'm sorry to say it's but you're gllowing me.
• 56:27
  Speaker 8: This is why I keep complimenting folks. You're allowing me
• 56:30
  Speaker 8: to express it. You're following, you're seeing what's new at
• 56:33
  Speaker 8: each week because the world I'm not just responding to,
• 56:38
  Speaker 8: you know, yesterday's news. I'm trying to explain what to
• 56:41
  Speaker 8: expect in the coming weeks. And I don't think that
• 56:46
  Speaker 8: the United States pulling back equals de escalation in the
• 56:51
  Speaker 8: way we would understand it, which is the economic shock here.
• 56:57
  Speaker 8: Aaron is going to squeeze these countries as they go through,
• 57:03
  Speaker 8: and I suspect they will never let a drop of
• 57:06
  Speaker 8: oil from Saudi Arabia or UEE pass the Strait of
• 57:09
  Speaker 8: Hormuz here because they want to topple those governments. And
• 57:14
  Speaker 8: I think that's why Saudi Arabia is talking to Pakistan,
• 57:18
  Speaker 8: because Saudi Arabia is looking for who's gonna help me?
• 57:22
  Speaker 8: And Pakistan's friendly to Iran, So why is Saudi Arabia
• 57:27
  Speaker 8: making these relationships with Pakistan here? They need a backup
• 57:33
  Speaker 8: in case Uncle Trump bails on them, and who would Yeah,
• 57:36
  Speaker 8: you can see right away you're not counting on Trump.
• 57:39
  Speaker 8: So what are you doing? You're looking for a backup
• 57:42
  Speaker 8: plan and Pakistan may not be your best bet, but
• 57:46
  Speaker 8: it's probably your only bet here to help. NBS has
• 57:50
  Speaker 8: got a real problem. How is he going to his
• 57:52
  Speaker 8: regime survive in this situation where he's lost that much
• 57:57
  Speaker 8: oil revenue so he can't use money as much as
• 58:00
  Speaker 8: he could before. Iran is gaining power. These are the
• 58:05
  Speaker 8: real consequences that I'm explaining by the new center of power.
• 58:10
  Speaker 8: Uh and it's just not likely to change. I just
• 58:14
  Speaker 8: don't see how Iran. Even if you got a new
• 58:16
  Speaker 8: regime in Iran, why would they give up all this power?
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: And Saudi Arabia reached a security deal with Pakistan, and
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: I think the reason that Pakistan was trying to host
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: the mediation talks is that so Pakistan could then tell
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia, sorry, we can't participate in this war.
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: We're mediators, but they're not.
• 58:35
  Speaker 12: Well.
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: I would go a little further.
• 58:36
  Speaker 8: I was just on for half an hour with the
• 58:38
  Speaker 8: big Pakistani media because I think what's being missed there
• 58:43
  Speaker 8: is I think Pakistan has been one of the countries
• 58:46
  Speaker 8: understanding this emerging geopolitical power, not just the details. And
• 58:52
  Speaker 8: so if you notice who else was there, it was
• 58:55
  Speaker 8: you basically had Pakistan, you had Turkey, you had Saudi
• 58:59
  Speaker 8: ira you have Iran. This is the anti there's a
• 59:05
  Speaker 8: growing anti American coalition that is emerging here. As soon
• 59:11
  Speaker 8: as we talked about arming the Kurds, we effectively lost Turkey.
• 59:17
  Speaker 8: I mean, Turkey's got millions of Kurds. The idea we're
• 59:20
  Speaker 8: going to arm the Kurds. The the first thing those
• 59:23
  Speaker 8: Kurds are likely to want to do is turn on Turkey.
• 59:26
  Speaker 8: So this is already our ideas here. Are are just
• 59:31
  Speaker 8: doing everything to push away those countries, and Pakistan is
• 59:38
  Speaker 8: starting to build coalitions here. So I don't think this
• 59:41
  Speaker 8: is just about being mister nice guy Pakistan, let's be nice.
• 59:45
  Speaker 8: I think that what you're seeing is the reality of
• 59:47
  Speaker 8: how the geopolitical game is played.
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: All right, Professor Robert Pape, author of the Escalation Trap Substack,
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: probably have to talk to you again next week to
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: get more depressed.
• 59:59
  Speaker 8: I'm very we had to do it so and thank
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 8: you so much, really, thank you.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: That was excellent. Thank you got it all right, We'll
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: see you later.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: Up next, a little rundown on the economic news, and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: guess what it's not great more bad news.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: Major announcement from Oracle yesterday. We could put C two
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: up on the screen here the headline Oracle slashes thirty
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 5: thousand jobs with a cold six am email. Thirty thousand
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: jobs yesterday. Now we can move back to element C one.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: Put that up on the screen. The economic indicators are
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 5: starting to look very bleak. Indeed, this is a quote
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: from reporter Steve Luckner, who said in a speech with
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: echoes of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. This
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: is pulled from a political Europe article. EU Energy chief
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: Dan Jrgensen said Europe was facing a very serious situation
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: with no clear end in sight. Ryan Trump has teased
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: the speech to the nation at nine pm last I checked.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 5: Futures were up, which interesting given all of this news
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: that we're going through right now. But let's say we
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: didn't have this announcement about a Trump speech. Hypothetically say
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: we have absolutely no idea what he's going to say,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: which isn't just a hypothetical. That's always true of Donald Trump.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: People seem to believe he's going to indicate a kind
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 5: of mission mission accomplished type moment, public relations end of
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 5: the war. We've won, We're successful. What do you make
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 5: What do you make of the economic indicators? Is he responding,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: Let's say to some of this really bleak, some of
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: the bleak prospects from places like Europe, which are saying, listen,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 5: this is pandemic level.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: Possibly yeah, and oracle is probably what you know AI related.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: Plus a bunch of their money comes from Gulf states.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: Which they're also on the IRGC list of companies to target.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and so this is a clash between the ability
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: of a president to manipulate markets and actual reality. And
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: so actual reality with the Gulf countries, which are major
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: finance financiers of Oracle, are struggling because they're getting bombed constantly. Uh,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: and their their ability to produce the thing and distribute
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: the thing that undergirds their wealth is being undercut by
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: the war. Trump thinks if he can tease that the
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: war is going to end constantly, that.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: That will kind of prop up the markets.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: But at some point people actually need the things that
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: are being produced and they're not able to get them.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 8: Uh.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: It's not just fuel helium which is a by you know,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: I guess it's a byproduct of the process of making
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: natural gas. Or you need it, you know, don't don't
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: take your scientific news from me.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: I only get science from you.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: It's it's very hard to get helium. Now we're entering
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: a helium shortage. Liquid helium is essential to actually AI
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: but also you know, MRI machines and all sorts of
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: other like advanced technology because it is able to be
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: cooled to an extremely low temperature, which is essen essential
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: to a lot of magnetic technology that's related to these
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: high end processing functions. Fertilizer, which is now this I
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: can tell you something about spring is when you plant
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: thinks that I can tell you if you didn't know that,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: it's now spring. So that there's two pieces of information.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: The fertilizer runs through the strait of Hormos. China has
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: basically stopped exporting fertilizer because they realize they need it
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: for their country, dastardly Chinese, and so all around the
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: world farmers who are beginning the planting season do not
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: have the nitrogen rich fertilizers prosphus rich fertilizers that they need.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: That is going to again helping you out here, mean
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: that there's gonna be.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: Less food, which.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: Means it's people are going to starve and people are
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: going to pay more for food. Your quality life is
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: going to go down, and that's money that because you
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: have to spend money on food, that's money that you're
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: not going to have for other things.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 5: And let's take a look at these numbers that Joe
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 5: Wisenthal pointed out yesterday. This is the next element will
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: the employment situation compound. What Ryan was just describing whysnant
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: Thal looking at the new Joult report said while the
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: hiring rate in February hit the same level it did
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: in April twenty twenty.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: So April twenty twenty, what was going on in April
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty, Was anybody hiring in April twenty twenty, No,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 4: nobody was hiring. In other words, nobody is hiring today,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: like right now. This is one of the things that you.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 5: Got a new class of graduates about to edger.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: The workforce right now. Yeah, yes, people.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: I feel so horrible for people who are graduating in
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: May entering the workforce quote unquote workforce. This is We've
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: seen this for about the last year, even before it
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: was showing up in the data, right readers, viewers were
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: telling us this, People in our lives were telling us
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: this that like, and hiring managers were telling us this
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: that like.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: They're just are not job openings.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: That unemployment is remaining fairly low relative to historical.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: Highs.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: But if you do not have a job, trying to
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: find one is like impossible, And all of these companies
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: are putting out fake job openings for data purposes. Have
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: you seen this, And so people are then applying to
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: all these fake jobs, of course not getting an interview
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: or anything else because it's not a real job.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: That should be.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: Illegal, by the way, And you know they're using AI
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: in their HR departments. The people who are creating their
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: resumes are using AI to brush them up. So it's
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: AI talking to AI and humans and humans are just
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: as you see in that chart, just cut out of
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: the equation.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: And they're feeling it. The humans, unlike the robots, are responding.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 5: Let's roll see four.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 13: I struggle every day and now I'm taking care of
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 13: my mom who's older and denied simple simple things like
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 13: rereading and meds.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: Soll gas, what are you going to do?
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 13: So I don't eat this week because I have to
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 13: take mom to the doctors tomorrow.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 14: If you could pick one word to describe the economy,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 14: your economy, your economic situation right now under these conditions,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 14: one word to describe that desolate.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: So that was just a normal man from Florida that
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: ms NOW interviewed about the state of the country yesterday
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 5: and run. One of the interesting things I saw in
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 5: a report about TSA. I'm trying to remember which publication
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 5: was off the top of my head. But they did
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: a great interview with a TSA agent who said he
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: actually was he part of a strike. Yes, it sounded
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: like he was part of a strike, but he actually
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: couldn't fill his gas tank because he hadn't had a
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 5: paycheck to commute, right, which when you put two and
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 5: two together, is completely obvious. But that's what gas price
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 5: I mean, these are I passed the gas station of
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: the sport is like five twenty uh and those are
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: levels where obviously, I mean, gas prices are always a
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: persistent problem for the American people, but it's.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: Something they talked about in Cube. A lot people didn't
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: have the gas to get to work.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 5: And Trump has always, always, like with the market, tied
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: his political success to things like gas prices and the
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: stock markets. So maybe that explains whatever he's going to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: say tonight. We don't know yet. But the pressures are
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: obvious probably to anybody outside. When they're obvious people in DC,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: you know they're bad. When when Washington is talking about
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 5: the economic pressures, you know they're bad.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And airlines are canceling a bunch of flights because
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: in order to like, you know, they let's say they
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: sold a plane load full of tickets at three hundred
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: bucks when jet fuel prices were what they were back
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: in February. Now, to operate that flight, they might lose
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: a million dollars. So they're like, you know what, I
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: don't think we want to lose a million dollars. Now,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: there's laws about whether or not they can actually do that.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: You guarantee they're combing through every possible mechanism they can
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: to say, oh, it's not because of the that we're
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: losing money on this flight. It's because of something we
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: didn't foresee. Don't whatever it is, don't.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: Worry about it.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: You just like, just hope your flight's canceled. But if
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: you want to read, here's three hundred dollars credit. If
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: you want to read book, here you go. It's going
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: to cost you fifteen hundred dollars now