Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 18

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 18 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our NFL Week eighteen Sunday recap episode, last regular
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: season week of the season. I am Shadmulman. I am
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre, my co host,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon Hunter.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: L O Simon shot. How we doing, buddy dude?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Truly it just a kick in the dick kind of day.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, we had a good season overall, but our
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: first four picks today with Buffalo minus two and a
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: half still to come, were I think a reflection of
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: our worst decisions all year. It's like, you know how
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: you can see when teams lose games consistently during the
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: regular season, you can see that's how they're going to
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: lose during the playoffs. Today, all the decisions that were
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: bad that we made during the season came back and
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: haunted us today. Carolina plus four and a half, our
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: fans begged us not to do it. We couldn't resist
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Atlanta plus three and a half. What were we thinking
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: backing Desmond Ritter Minnesota three and a half? Why did
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: we not think Dan Campbell would play to the hilt
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the whole game. At least Mike Rabel did what Mike
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Rabel does. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast presented by
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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• 1:58
  Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Louisiana, Ohio, Virginia,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Terms condition and restrictions apply. We are going to take
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: a first look at the wild card lines later in
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the show. Also very special guest Action Networks Mike Calabrese's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: joining us. He's one of our big Bets on campus
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: co hosts. He's also got a two leg parlay on
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: the NFL MVP race and the college football title game
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: that has everybody at action buzzing. Wouldn't we all like
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to take a two figure bet and turn it into
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: five figures A little foreshadowing, a little teaser, simon, we
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: can talk about the Bears. I mean, this is the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: kind of day it was. The luck rankings had the
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Commanders and the Cowboys is one of their best bets
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: for a luck under at forty seven, forty seven and
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: a half. It was at forty five with one minute
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: left in the game, and the Cowboys kicked a field
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: your fifty yard field goal to go over forty seven
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. We talked about the Jets. We ignored it.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: We talked about the Bengals. Decided it was too high.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: My bad. You kept mentioning the Bengals, and like I
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: just sort of kept ignoring it. We talked about the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Giants a lot, and got enamored with the Carolina number
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: and decided we couldn't walk away from that. Just rough.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: When you choose the wrong games and leave the right
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: games on the table, you know what I'm saying.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's game one, though, baby, bad luck, Bad luck
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: just stupid little bounces just keep not going away. We
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: had I can't remember a time I had back to
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: back weeks. We made a bet and the team we
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: bet on fumbled out of the end zone for not
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: getting a touchdown, and that's how we end up not
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: covering that bet. So yeah, it's bad luck. But I
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: tell you all the time, it all comes around. So
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: it hurts, but either rob some good karma in the playoff,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: we'll have some next year.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: It all comes back around. So it's brutal. Honestly. The
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: loss is hurt.
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: But I'm dead inside from my team, the Eagles, and
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: I think you're dead inside from the Bears.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: So I think we're both just trying to fake it
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: through this right.
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: Now, where it's like the last thing I want to
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: do is talk football, like my team is dead, they're
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: a train wreck. Your team is dead that they're a
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: train wreck. We're both miserable right now, but we're trying
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: to smile through it. And yeah, the one shining little
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: moment of the day was, like you said, Tennessee Titans,
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: Rabel one last hurrah. If this is it for Rabel
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: with us in Tennessee, love them. Love is such a
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: fun season betting them. We love that spot. Yeah, the
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: one outright dog came through for us.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: The ones we left off hurt though, Like you said,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: the Giants one, that's a bad miss. But Carolina, I
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: would do it again, Atlanta. I never would avoided it, Chad,
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: like even if you would have talked me out of it,
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: those trends. When I read Evans article, I was like,
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: oh my god, got it. Take a landa here, And yeah,
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: Derek Carr throwing four touchdowns is not all my bingo cards.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: So it's just it's just one of those days of
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: you're a better sometimes you get caught and uh yeah
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: today we got caught.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Bet in these ugly dogs.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Home teams one twenty nine, one, nine and nine against
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the spread. Entering the Buffalo Miami game tonight, at least
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: with the Bears, we have clarity. We saw Jordan Love
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: able to run out of the pocket and just run
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: well enough to give himself some space, give his receivers
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: opportunities to create space. I don't need a running back.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I don't need a quarterback who can run like a
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: running back. I need a quarterback who can get outside
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the pocket and make a throw down field. And Justin Fields.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I feel like we got some clarity today. I don't
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: think Justin Field is going to be the quarterback for
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears next year. Hey, reminder, you say everything
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: comes back, Simon, we can all, we can all come
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: back from this together. At this time, one week from today,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you and I will be together at the Shepherd and
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey. Free entry, free drinks,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: free hanging out with me and you and sweating the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: bets for our live show seven thirty doors open four
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: pm for the after no one pm for the afternoon games.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Come join us, Free entry, free drinks RSVP in the
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: description for this show Shepherd and the Knucklehead Next week
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: join us. All right, let's run through the torture, the
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: one we got right Tennessee plus three and a half
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: at Jacksonville. This is what a team should look like
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: when it's out of it smiles flying to the ball.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry looked like he was twenty notin to thirty
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: nineteen carries one hundred and fifty three yards. He even
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: rest the crowd after the game, saying thank you for
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: eight great years. They nearly gave it away, but they
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: stiffened up. If I'm Jacksonville, I'm looking at my play
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: this year, my inconsistency even before Trevor Lawrence was injured,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and I'm looking at next season and I'm like Dmiico
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Ryans is awesome, Shane Steichen is awesome, and these guys
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: have quarterbacks who make Trevor Lawrence look kind of archaic, right, Like,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, they're not even the second best
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: team in the division.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if they're priced as the third best team, though,
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: that's too I'm gonna be betting, I'll tell you that much.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: They just they know what they need to do.
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: You need to get some offensive lineman in this offseason,
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: and you got to keep adding to that defense. But yeah,
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: they just injuries caught up to them. I mean, their
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: whole wie receiving fur was banged up. Trevor Lawrence we
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: saw injured. He was the season. But yeah, theiggest question
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: to me is just like you just said that the
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: Houston thing is gonna be a big deal for that
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: like that that's a team that's way ahead of schedule.
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: And you didn't really touch on the Jordan Love thing,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: but that was the biggest thing you saw today was
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love and yesterday you saw a CJ. It's like
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: these kids they played in those big moments, they stepped up,
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Like that's the difference maker. Like no one's doubting Justin
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: Field's talent. The doubt with him is in these big
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: moments he can't step up. You saw that today and
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: you saw that with Trevor Lawrence to that, Like, Trevor
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Lawrence could have taken over that game. The team put
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: him in position. He had a bunch of moments he
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: could have made and he just didn't have those moments.
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: When we talked on time, like that's the difference. Those
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: are the Tannehills of the world. Trevor Lawrence could be
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: another Tannehill and Jordan Love could be the next Rogers,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: Like that's that's kind of the difference where some of
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: these guys that can step up to these moments and
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: have these kind of big games and other guys can't.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: So today it was definitely one of those days of
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: the quarterbacks, right like Baker Mayfield had nothing to that.
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: He was banged up at a bum ankle. I think
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: he threw for one hundred and thirty yards. He did enough,
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: like he got his team in position to win.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: They won.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Now he won that division, He's in the playoffs like
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: we tall got time. It's just such a difference maker
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: with some of these quarterbacks where even though they don't
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: have it, they can still put their team in the
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: best position to win these games.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield critical scramble on a third and you know,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: middle yardage on a bad knee to help secure that game.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: You couldn't be more right about Trevor Lawrence and let's
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: let's give him the benefit of the doubt, like the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: guy has been playing like at maybe fifty percent the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: second half of the year. In that run. You mentioned
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: injuries to the receivers, to Christian Kirk been out like.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: This team started the season eight and three, finished nine
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: to eight, missed the playoffs. Only one other team has
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: done that in this past decade. That was the twenty
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: twenty one Ravens. And look, if Trevor Lawrence comes back
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the way Lamar Jackson has come back, good for him.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: But man, what age is terrible collapse for the Jags
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to end the year, getting the Bills into the playoffs,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: getting the Steelers into the playoff. Raw fucking raw. Mike
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Tomlin Atlanta at New Orleans. And by the way, we
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: will go over the games that we have spreads for
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: for the wildcard games, we don't have them all yet.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We're not going to get them for the AFC until
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: late tonight because we don't have the matchups, so we
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: only have matchups for some of the NFC and for
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the one AFC matchup that is set, that is Houston
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland Atlanta at New Orleans, we get what we deserve.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: We've been faiting Derek Carr because we did not buy
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: his recent streak in December in which he threw for
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: ten touchdowns two picks in eight hundred and fifty three yards,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: and today he was throwing dimes. And the epitome of
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: this game was the Falcons are down. They go on
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: a fourteen play drive at the one yard line, fourth
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and goal. Desmond Ridder has Bjon Robinson wide opening, doesn't
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: throw it right away. When he does throw it, a
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: defender is closing in and Desmond Ritter throws it to
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the inside shoulder instead of the outside shoulder. It nearly
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: gets picked. The very next play, Derek Carr, backed up
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: in his own end zone, throws a forty yard dime
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to the outside shoulder of his receiver ends up being
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: a blow up.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, terrible, terrible, and as much I want to bashed Desmond,
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: it was really Atlanta's defense, right. They couldn't stop the
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: Saints like the their dvs.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: They couldn't do anything. It was like playing against air like.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: It just felt like every time they cut through that
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: game it was a live wide open or Rashid was
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: catching getting big catches. Just an incredible game by Derek Carr,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: like a guy that you know I was. I was
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: still hanging on to him coming to the season, saying
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: he's a good quarterback. He really fell off for about
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: two three months there, and you just said it this
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: last month month. In two weeks, he's just been really well,
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: played really well, and I've been waiting for him to
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: fall off.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: So go back to the Derek Carr we.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Know, But maybe this is what he needed, just time
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: to learn the offense could come for the guys. And yeah,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: they're they're pretty good team. I think they got bounced though, right,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: they don't make the playoffs.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Now. The good news is, Simon, we don't have to
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: bet Atlanta again this year. We don't have to bet
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: New Orleans again this year. Yeah, thank god, we don't
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: have to bet Jacksonville again this year. I actually you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: say the defense, I will say, and this will be
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: an interesting offseason, right Arthur Smith. I can't imagine he's
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: going to continue to be the coach for the Falcons
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: because we truly believed in Arthur Smith. Like we loved
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Arthur Smith at Tennessee. We loved how creative he was
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: with the offense for the Falcons when he had Cordillo
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Patterson and was putting him all over the field. We
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: expected that kind of creativity and commitment this year with
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Algiers and with Bjeon Robinson, and instead in this game
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: where he has the best opportunity to potentially win the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: division if the Bucks can somehow lose in a game
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: we thought they could have lost, and he's putting the
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: ball in Desmond Ritter's hands and Desmond Ritter first minute
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: of the second half pick thrown directly to a New
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saint defensive back, third and one from midfield. Instead
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: of giving it to Algiers or Bijon, he puts it
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: in Desmon Mitter's hand, overthrows, a receiver doesn't get the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: first down, then it's a blowout. The only time Arthur
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Smith seemed to show emotion at the end of the game,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: he got mad at Dennis Allen for running up the score.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: You know what, Arthur Smith, fucking stop him. It's not
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Dennis Allen's job to not keep scoring. Like, just have
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: your team play defense, make better play calls, keep the
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: game closer. Don't take it out on the opposing coach. Pathetic.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it was just a case of they
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: wanted to get Williams a touchdown, a guy who they
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: brought in from free agency. Yeah, touchdowns last year, didn't
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: score a single one this whole season. They just wanted
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: to get him one. That's That's the definition of a
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: guy that's mad about everything going on in his life
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: and someone honks the horn at him in traffic and
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: he gets out and starts whacking their car with a
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: baseball bat.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: Like it's you're not mad.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: The guy honking the horn at you, Dude, you're mad
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: that your wife doesn't love you. Like, stop freaking out,
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: Dennis Allen. Arthur Smith, like you you could just right
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: off of the sunset. His dad owned FedEx whatever it is, Like,
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: it's just bizarre. I hate I hate when people do
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: that stuff, You're you're you're so spot on there, it's like,
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: why are you giving grief the Dennis Allen at the
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: end of that game.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but like you said, thank god it's over.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: We don't the bet Atlanta and uh yeah, Atlanta could
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: be the next owners of Justin Fields for a nice
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: price of the second round pick from Chad Mollman.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, I think that I think it's going to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: be very interesting what happens with Justin Fields. I think
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: it's going to be very interesting what happens with that
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: number one overall pick. Another team that all of our
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: listeners and watchers are going to be happy. We don't
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: have to bet again this year Carolina Panthers. We could
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: not We could not resist. We went two and six
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: betting the Panthers this year. It went exactly unexpected. In
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the first half, close game, Baker had a lot of
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: near picks. Key moment, end of the third Panthers had
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: thirty five in Bucks territory. And what happens. Bryce Young
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: is sacked and because Eddie Pinero is not playing, they
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: miss a field goal very and then the fourth they're
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: down nine to nothing, they score a touchdown called back
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: for a penalty. Next play, Bryce Young fumbles. We're the worst,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: we don't deserve to win.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's incredible though, like bet, the worst team always
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: finds incredible ways to lose. I remember last year with
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: the Bears. The Bears found the most incredible ways to lose.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: The way Carolina figured out ways to lose this game
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: was incredible. Like that guy out of the end zone,
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: the miskick, Like there was just there's so many.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Ways that number covers. I mean literally for scored.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: You just said they scored nine points and Carolina two
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: touchdowns the one day it got called back and one
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: that didn't happen because he phoned by the endzone. It's like,
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: you can't make it up. But yeah, shout out to
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: our fans. They're smarter than us. Like they were just
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: sick of it. They wouldn't buy it, they wouldn't budge.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: Even though we kept every week, kept getting good numbers
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: on Carolina. Apparently you're not getting a good number, right,
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: they can't.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: You're getting a good number because they're so fucking bad.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: They're like, yeah, ahead, we'll take your money.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: I know, suckers.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I wonder if if NFL bad guy ownered David Tepper
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: who can't control his rage. And uh, the story is
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: once rage bought a massive estate in the Hamptons of
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: someone who used to be his boss, who he didn't like,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: only so he could tear it down. Uh, will he
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: go hire Arthur Smith to be his next coach and
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: they can get Raggie together, rich Ragie guys?
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Right, I saw.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: Someone I don't know who it was, they talked about
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: like the who the next coach will be of Carolina?
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: And it is true.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Where in the perfect world you'd get a veteran coach, right,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: someone that has been around the league a long time
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: that won't take shit from him.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: But you know what he's gonna do, right, Carolina knows
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: what they're gonna do.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: He's gonna get some young kid and he's gonna be
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: in this kid's year twenty four to seven, and it's
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: just gonna get worse and worse. So, yeah, we have
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: a plenty of all season talk about how big of
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: a downfall and mistake that Carolina team is. But yeah,
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: I can't believe we got sucked in the last week.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: One more time on them.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Just horrible. Also, to discuss the truck that the Washington Commanders,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: with a new owner, new coach coming in desire to
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: build a new stadium, are going to back up to
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: give the Chicago Bears for the first round pick so
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: they draft DC native Caleb Williams. We will be discussing
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: that as this as the off season continues. Most profitable
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks against the spread this season. Let's give it up
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: for Baker Moxie Mayfield. Third most profitable quarterback against the
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: spread this season, behind Lamar and Jared Goff. And this
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: is after enterating this season twenty nine forty one and
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: one against the spread. He went eleven and six against
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the spread this year.
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty great.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think I don't think he had enough games
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: to make your list.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: But Mason Rudolph, right, he's another guy who's like seventy
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: or seventy five percent this season.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Ats Mason Rudolf who went eighteen for twenty in a
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: freaking monsoon yesterday. Like Mason Rudolph's going eighteen for twenty,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Jordan Love is going twenty seven for thirty two. Jared
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Goff in his last day is completing like seventy percent
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of his passes and thrown for three hundred yards. Minnesota
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: was a three and a half point underdog at Detroit.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: This was our fourth pick of the day. I don't
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: know how we talked ourselves into this one. We were
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: just wrong. Dan Campbell, who we love, was just pissed
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: like the whole game. It seemed like he was willing
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: to sacrifice every player on his team in this game
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: to win this game. Sam Laporta hyper extended knee status
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: unknown for the playoffs. Khalif Raymond injured. Aman ros Saint
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Brown had about two thousand yards receiving because he's pissed
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: about the Pro Bowl. Jared Goff had three hundred yards passing.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Now he will be hosting the team that banished him,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: that thought they were moving him to Siberia, and it
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: turns out Jared Goff has turned his entire career, persona,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and reputation around and we let it all our then.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Nick Mullens, Nick Mullens, who's the hit on sixteen when
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the dealer's showing two of the quarterbacks in the NFL
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a million yards ugly picks that cost them the game?
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: No regrets, No regrets. Though, that's a spot I was
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: going to be in. I was gonna take it.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: It sucks.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: I hate it, chat, but I stand by it's a
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: long term winner. It's like you back those teams in
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: those spots that try to play spoiler. We just picked
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: the wrong ones, right, We should have took different teams
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: that were trying to play spoiler day.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: So the Nick Mullins part was tough where we were
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: in it.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: You know the number cap matching up where it's like, okay,
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: all we need is a drive here and a touchdown here. Ever,
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: like those are the worst ones, right, we still have
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: hope even though we know we're dead. That was the
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: definition of that game. Like you said it. I think
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: it was twenty one six maybe at one point.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Where may the six.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it just a true was not stopping. It was
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: like what is happening? They are not taking their foot
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: off the game. And that's how it was. Like the
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: Vikings went down the field, they scored a touchdown. I
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: was like, okay, we'll see backups here. Nope, all the
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: starters were back out there again. This is like a
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: full quarter later after that Lapoor injury. Crazy. Uh, it's hard.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: It is hard sometimes because you don't know what these
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: coaches are gonna do. And that's definitely one where I
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: totally misread that where Chad's right, like Campbell did exactly
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: what he should have done, which is his whole personality,
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: which is like just pure rage. Go for it on
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: fourth down, go Ford on fourth and seven, go for
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: it when you're seven yards deep on two plinckn versions,
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: Like this guy doesn't care, this is this is the man.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: So they're gonna live by they're gonna die by it.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: And it's like, if they make a super Bowl run,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be playing that style because it's a very
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: unique style.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: But it's also I.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: Mean, we bet on them when they went zero for
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: five on fourth downs and they get blown out, right,
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: it's like it can go the other way. So it's
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: hard to bet with that because you don't know what
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: really is gonna happen in those games.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: But you just said it.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: Detroit was the second best team this year against the spread,
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: so golf all of it. There's like then versus the Rams,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: it's storybook, like you couldn't make a better matchup. Like
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: the way the NFC played out, it feels like it's
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: gone the way it should. All the teams that are
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs, all these matchups it feels right, like
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: if you go through the whole season, all these teams,
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: the way it ended up, like every team that won
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: their division was right right. The troit was their best
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: team all year. The forty Nineers were the best team
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: all year. Dallas was more consistent than the Eagles were
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: all year. And the Bucks we already talked about like that.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: That was a pros bet all summer, and I would
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: not listen to these pros talking about it. I just
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: did not believe it. I just couldn't get behind Baker,
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: could not get behind the Bucks. And they knew, I
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: mean from week went on, they knew about that Bucks team.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: So they were definitely the Pros team of the season, right.
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: The pros were all over them and they paid out big.
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Same goes with the Rams. The pros loved the Rams
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: all summer. They blew out that win total. They're probably
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: the biggest team you don't want to play in the
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: playoffs right with like Pooka Cooper Cupp Like they're just
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: gonna be a scary team this this playoff run. So yeah,
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: that can't wait to talk about these playoff games.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, it was twenty to thirty. It was twenty
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: to six, twenty to thirteen, then Dan Campbell kept his
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: foot on the gas twenty seven to thirteen, then twenty
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: seven to twenty, then thirty twenty. He was throwing the
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: ball with less than with less than two minutes left
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: in the game, he was still throwing the ball. And
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you know what, you know what happened Kevin O'Connell. When
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: the game was over, he didn't get mad at Dan Campbell.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: He went across the field, he shook his hand, they
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: said good game. He understood what was going on. Like,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: it's freaking football, man, That's that's the name of it.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Don't get all bitchy and whiny about it.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: Just yeah, if it's high school, it's different. But like,
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: this is growing, man, this is this is business like.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: That's why it gets me annoyed where it's like the
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: little kids. Yeah.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Campbell thirty five and sixteen against the spread the past
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: three years, sixty nine percent, best three year stretch for
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: any team since New England went sixty nine percent twenty
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: sixteen in twenty eighteen.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. We still have in our Phase
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: five Buffalo minus two and a half tonight against Miami,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: and we also have for all the marbles, Tyreek Hill
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: I believe needs about thirty five yards. If someone can
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: tell me in the chat exactly how many yards Tyreek needs.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Caseide Lamb, I think had ninety eight yards and he
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: was I think sixty six yards behind Tyreek Hill going
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: into today for the receiving yards lead for the season.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: So Tyree probably needs thirty three to thirty four yards tonight.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: UH to cash our nine to one ty week leaves
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: the league in receiving yardage. We could use a future
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: to cash because we also lost Denver over their season
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: win total. Today.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: No I need, I need that. I need the Carter
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: one bad, which was like a sweat. I mean, you know,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: it's just been wide open like the whoever can win
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: Rookie of Year for the defensive side. It's really wide
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: open and it's too bad, like I bet CJ. So
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: I'm happy for it, but it's not really When I
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: pumped out where Pooka, that would be an amazing hit.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: A lot of people that bet that had it at
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: one hundred oh one seventy five to one, fifty to one,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: that would be an all timer. But come on, that
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: throw CJ made in that game, that's.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Like Tonico Collins towards the end.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that that was his moment where it's like biggest moment,
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: guy on his face, off his back foot, just pure
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: arm talent and I'm putting that ball right there. So unfortunately, Err,
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: it's to say, as much as I love Pooka and
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: everything he did this season, a't CJ's right so excited
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: to see if it's gonna be Carter. I need Carter,
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: But I just said it the Tyreek Hill one. I
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: can't believe we're sweating this bet.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Bro thirty three yards he needs he needs thirty three
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: yards tonight to get the h to end the year
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: as the yardage reception yardage leader. All right, our Fox click, yeah,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I know, our foxhol with Buffalo minus three TBD, Simon says,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Tennessee plus five, that's a win. Exec decision, Chicago plus three,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: that's a loss. Big balls, Minnesota plus three.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: And a half.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: How do we not take the fucking giants in the round?
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: Robin?
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Uh? Carolina La Chicago BLA Atlanta BLA Giants. Yay, Tennessee, Yay.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: There we go.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not bad. Right, let's talk about our lean for tonight.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: We've been on Buffalo all week. The line got down
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: two and a half, it's back at three. We're not
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: walking away.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I hate it where it's like it's not
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: like us. So hopefully that's why it should win.
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: We've been trying to go by the book today and
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: the book has not been good to us. So well,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: look we're.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Back in a favorite and it's been a favorite year.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what I mean. Like, we're going with the
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: public on this one, and the public have been winning.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: So it's been making my stomach turn all week. But
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: me and Chat both agree. We just don't think the
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: line accounts for all the injuries that Miami's had, and
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: Miami's just not the same team they were just a
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. With the injuries they have had,
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: it really sounds like Wattle's definitely not playing or moster.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's such a huge deal to the offense.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, those guys are so incredibly We saw the
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: Eagles today without their number one running back to their
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: number two receiver. They looked lost, like no Smith, no Swift.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: The Eagles could not move the ball. So we need it.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: I need Buffalo bad Like I can't tell you people
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: how much money I would be down today if Buffalo
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: can't come through in this game.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: So, uh, one one.
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: Last raw with the Bills. It's this is the closest
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: I can get to be in a Bills fan. They
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: lose this game because like they're just their whole existence
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: been misery. Uh, this is what they live for, these
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: little moments like this.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, notice that noted Buffalo Bills fan Matt
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Mitchell producer Matt Mitchell is on the podcast on you know,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: doing the job tonight. Where's Tito tonight? I don't know
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: what Tito's doing, but Tito's Tito's prepping for the game. Uh.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Here's here's the quote that we're gonna go with tonight.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: When all hope is gone, all that's left is relief.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: It's a famous one from our friend scoog Simon. Can
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I love game Time for two reasons. One they sponsor
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: this show. Number two because I actually use game Time
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: all sorts of tickets, including pro and college football games.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Speaking of which, I'm actually going to open Game Time
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: right now from my house here in Connecticut. Guess what
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: I can get in to see the red hot New
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: York Knickerbockers coming off a big blowout win this weekend
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: for less than one hundred dollars at Madison Square Garden.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: It is a mecca of basketball no matter where you live.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Download the Game Time app, get out have some fun
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: this week go sweat your bets alive and in person.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app and
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: in our code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Lowes Price Garren tied. All right, So the lines we
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: do have. If these have updated since we started the podcast,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: please feel free to tell me these were what the
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: lines were right before we came on air. First Up
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: Cleveland visiting Houston Cleveland at full Strank visiting Houston AFC
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: South Division winners again. Shout out Brandon Anderson who predicted
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: that early in the year on the favorite podcast and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: we all just laughed. Cleveland minus two on the road
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: at Houston. First instinct, what do we think? I like Houston.
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: I like Cleveland. It's already moved though, so you'd be
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: the sharper side. It's down to minus one and a
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: half at three six five. So simple, simple reason why
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: I want to back Cleveland is it's such a huge
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: moment and it's a rookie going against Joe Flacco, and
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: I know Joe Flack was eventually going to burn me
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: and this would be the perfect spot for it. But
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: this actually matches up pretty well for the Browns defense.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: So yeah, definitely looking to break down this game more.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: But just first glance, it's like, Okay, it's under two,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: I'll take the Browns, but totally get why you want
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: to take the Texans. It's like they're just they're the
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: home team and they're the dog.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, it's not even that. It's my My first
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: instinct on this was that CJ as a home dog.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: CJ as a dog generally has been a good play.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Number one, number two Cleveland's offense defense on the road.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: You're the only reason I even had that idea is
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: because you've pointed out to me so many times how
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: bad Cleveland's defense has been on the road, and they
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: have been. They've just been a much worse unit and
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: they're playing, i think, on a track that doesn't play
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: to their advantage. So that was sort of my instinct there.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Maybe I could be flipped, like, I'm not dug in
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: on Cleveland at all.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe by Tuesday you'll come around to my side it.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Joe Flack was a road favorite. Don't worry, I'm not
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: dug in on.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Cleveland, right I just want to make sure I feel
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: like by Tuesday you, by Tuesday, you and I could
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: be aligned on this.
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia also on the road at Tampa Bay. Philadelphia is
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite right now.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw an amazing stat that someone puts it
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: on Twitter. The last team to open this season ten
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: and one are better and not win its division the
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: nineteen eighty six Jets with Rich Cottite as his offense
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: could offensive coordinator.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: So Eagles, Yeah, Eagles.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Are in rare air. Holy shit.
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to take the Bucks first glance, like
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: their home dog Hurts might have broke his middle finger
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: during the game. Yeah, yeah, right, So it's like we
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: already saw what happened when Herbert tried to play with
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: a broken finger and a cast on his finger, Like,
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: it just doesn't work, especially a guy like Hurts that
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: there's doing. He's doing so many things under center, right,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: I mean the QB sneak his bread and butter.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal now.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: So uh yeah, again, not making a bet right away
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: just because Baker might be banked up as well, he
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: might have a bum ankle.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: But first first instinct as you take the.
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: Bucks here in the point. But that's what they want
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: us to do chat, So I'm not going to do
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: anything yet.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: Let's hold off. Let's keep our powder dry. La Rams
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the matchup that everyone wants to see visiting the Detroit Lions.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff a four point favorite against this old team.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Oh how that tables have turned for Jared Goff. What
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: a great story for this guy completely changed his rep
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: as a member of the Detroit Lions. Went from a
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: pretty boy California kid, didn't have a great rep in
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: the locker room. Sean McVay had lost faith in him,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: and he has gone and just completely rehab what people
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: think of him and become a top flight quarterback. Now
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: a four point favorite, and I want to love the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Lions here and I want to love Dan Campbell here.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: But we did all right back in the Rams in
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the latter half of the year, once Kyrine Williams came back.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Because this team feels juggernauty and more than a field goal.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: It feels like there's a slight edge for the Rams.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, this number should be three. This would if
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: this was Tuesday, this would be Simon says, guys, don't
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: think the three and a half will last. And if
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: it does last, those are major red flags. If this
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: stays three and a half to the game, this until
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: this kicks off, I'll be terrified, just because that means
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: the books are very happy to take a ton of
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: Rams money. Because that's why I think will happen. I
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: think the public and the pros will coming on the
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: Rams with the hook. It just feels a coin flip game.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Detroit Lions defense, who are they to
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: be catching the minas three and a half against a
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: really good offense.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: So three hundred and ninety six yards to Nick Mullins
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: and don't forget Sam Laporta status unknown, right.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: And that's what this will be This will be a
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: track meet, right, this will be well, we expect highest, yeah,
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: highest holl of the week right now, it's fifteen and
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: a half, so that makes perfect sense.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: It'd be that high of total open up.
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: Such such a big deal the fact that Laporta might
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: be out for this game and he's been golf's efty val.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: I think he either broke or set the rookie record
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: or tied it, maybe with Hernandez or Gronk. I think
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: with ten touchdowns, it's like, and he.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Also broke Keith Jackson's thirty year old record for receptions
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: or receptions for receptions by tie.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: Then like in front of them, if you go and watch,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: they design a lot of their offense around him because
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: he's been that special. Like they have a lot of
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: plays designed just specifically for him, like today's touchdown, like
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: it was designed for him. So yeah, gotta be a
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: big deal. But this is just first glance. I've already
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: bet this. I'm grabbing it now.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: You have to grab the three and a half just
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: in case it does disappear the over three.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, I was betting the three and
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: a half while you were talking and Charlie Desterco, who's
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: producing the show for us this very second, also bet
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: the three and a half because I saw it he
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: alert for him tracking it in the apps we as
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: we were talking. This is why I listened to the show.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Go bet the Rams plus three and a half. Last
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: wildcard game that we have lines for right now, Dallas
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: minus seven against green Bay, and.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: I'm seeing seven and a half. I bet three six
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: y five now, and it's like, wow, I'm shocked to
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: move this way.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I am too, like my I was immediately thinking green
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Bay's aside here.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: It really does feel like green Bay can match up
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: well with Dallas. But the feurier is, we know how
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: bad green Bay's defenses. I mean, I know they played
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: really well today, but it's different playing that at home
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: against justin Fields than in Dallas. Right We've seen Dallas
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: be a juggernaut at home this season, that offense when
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: they get rolling, I mean, they're so well prepared. So
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet it yet, but I totally
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: get it. If you want to bet to seven and
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: a half now in Green Bay, if you want to
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: grab it now. I'm just a little suspicious on these
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: big numbers in the playoffs just because it takes a
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: lot for them to cross the seven up to a
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: seven and a half the book. So clearly some professional
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: money came in quickly on Dallas. So for me, I
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: want to be on Green Bay, but not going to
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: die right into it yet.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast as is presented
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: by bet three sixty five, Bet three sixty five doesn't
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: do ordinary. That's why you get more boosts with them
• 37:05
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  Speaker 1: one or older in present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Louisiana, Ohio, Virginia,
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, before we get
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: out of here Mike Calabres, who a lot of action
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: and favorites. Listeners and followers are probably familiar with one
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: of our best analysts covering college basketball covering college football.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: One of the most fun podcasts that we have is
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Calabrese and is Non Power five Conference, a non Power
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: five conference betting podcast that he does during the college
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: football season. Great shatter, great lines, great info. Calabrese had
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: an amazing bet that he made a parlay that he
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: made twenty one dollars to win sixteen thousand dollars. It
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: all comes down to Washington, Michigan tomorrow. Calabrese, welcome with
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: the show. Tell us everything you can tell us about
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the bet and what's happening.
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: So as this tradition for me every August, I sit
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: down with every future. I like conference futures, Heisman futures,
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: National Title.
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: I mix in a little.
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: NFL as well, And when I got to the very.
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: End of the menu, I still had Washington at fifty
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: to one.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: Sitting there after, I heavily invested in Penn State and
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: Florida State to win the national title. But I still
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: thought to myself, if they're going to the College Football Playoff,
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: they're probably going to be an underdog in both games,
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: which is exactly how it played out. So I needed
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: a sweetener. I went big time on the sweetener here.
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: This was you know, it took it from fifty to
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: one to seven hundred and sixty four to one, and
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: that was by adding in Lamar Jackson to an NFL
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: MVP and essentially since I placed the bet, you know,
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: it was great out. You know, no cash out offer.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: Get into October, no cash out offer, and then Lamar
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: starts charging from the outside in the NFL MVP race
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: and all of a sudden, they're offering me one hundred bucks,
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: two hundred bucks, and I start playing it.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: That's us two hundred bucks.
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: I put it out there on Twitter, and at the time,
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: you know, people were like, oh, you should take the money.
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: Washington's gonna lose to Oregon State or Utah and they're
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: just listing.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: Off the teams. And then it inches up a little
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: bit closer. I get to eight hundred bucks.
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: And the big ROI gambler in.
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: The Calbary's household is not myself. It is my wife.
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: She bets one thing the entire year, and that's horse racing.
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: She bets the triple Crown, and then she really digs
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: in for Saratoga in August and she turned to me.
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: She was like, Oh, they're offering you a payout.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: What is it?
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: And I said, you know, it's nine hundred bucks, should
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: probably take it. And she looked me dead the eye
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: and she said, that's a good day at the track.
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: That is not what you were in this for. And
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: I thought to myself, if Abby can pump me up,
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: then I am going to take the heat. No matter
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: what they offer, I am throwing it back in their face.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I have thought to yourself, Wow, I am so lucky,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: and I am skiing over my tips because not everyone
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: gets to marry again like that.
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: It's true, and it also scared me a little bit,
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: if I'm being totally honest. I was like, you know,
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: I don't want to let her down to this point
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: and just you know, shrink in this moment and pull
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: my chips down.
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: So they're all up there, zero hedge going into this game.
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: It is nice that I actually think Washington has beyond
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: a puncher's chance. I think they have an absolute advantage
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: at quarterback. Their offensive line can keep him clean throughout
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: this game. And I'm skeptical that Michigan, if they're down
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: by a touchdown ten points and has to go away
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: from that bruising running game, really has what it takes
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: to win. With all the pressure on them, you know,
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: they're the favorite. They've kind of been acting like the
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: class of college football for at least the last two weeks,
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: so the pressure's on them.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: Washington's playing with house money. They don't even have a
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: conference more.
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: The Pac twelve is in ruins behind them, so they're
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: not carrying the flag for anybody. I think this is
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: a great spot to stick it in with a championship effort,
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: and Michael Pennix is the one to do it. He's
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: been slashing throats the entire season. He has been absolutely
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: surgical and why would I you know, pull away from
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: it now?
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: This is just makes too much sense to let it ride.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Well, look, Penix, I think got totally robbed on the Heisman.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: And if Pennix was doing what he had done playing
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: in the SEC, the ACC or the Big Ten, there's
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: not even a question about him winning the Heisman. You
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: don't run the gauntlet that he ran. You beat Oregon twice,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: you beat Utah, you beat usc you have a really
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: hard game against Oregon State in Washington State, like your
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: in state rival like, and the second half of the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: year you're playing injured and Washington is running the ball more.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: That guy has been lights out. I'm also partial because
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: he went to Indiana and I'm excited for former Indiana
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: football players to move on. Say again, did you say
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: what the payout offer was heading into tomorrow?
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: The max one before they pulled that off the table?
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: And it could be because I've been so aggressive on
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: social media saying that I won't take it no matter
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: what it is. It was five grands, so just from
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: the implied probability of the Washington money line, that was
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: about thirteen fourteen hundred bucks below what it should have been.
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: So really it was only a minor hedge or go
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: all in. I'm just going to go all in in
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: this position. It's not a great spot to be in
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: when you're the underdog to hedge in the first place.
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: But in general, I think I'm going to know from
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: the very first drive, if Washington doesn't blink and goes
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: down and scores the first time that they have the football,
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: I think all that pressure slides to the Wolverines in
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: this game. And then additionally, I think you know, Stock
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: and Colin Wilson on the BBOC Show really did an
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: excellent deep dive. Washington got healthier defensively as the season
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: went on, so a lot of their stats have been
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: inflated in terms of passing yards they gave up and
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: points and everything else as they got healthier. When the
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: game was on the line, they were the ones making
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: the big plays against Bonicks, against quinn.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: Ewers and JJ McCarthy.
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's a game man by any stretch,
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: but he doesn't scare me any more than those quarterbacks.
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: So the fact of the matter is, I think the
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: Washington defense is underrated here. Maybe I'm just talking myself
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: up with this Purple Rain parlay, but I'm pretty juiced
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: up now, and I got people coming in from multiple
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: states to watch it at a sports bar with me
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: tomorrow night, so you know, maybe some Twitter strangers as well.
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: We'll see how many people show up for this one.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Simon, what do you think of the play?
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I love it.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: I message you about having them launch just because this
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: is what Gamblin's really all about. Like, yeah, you got ass,
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: was like me, They're like, yeah, I do this for
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: a living. It's all about the little guy at the
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: end of the day. These are the bets I live
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: for where it's like the twenty one to twenty five
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: dollars joke parlays.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, I do these all the time. Do they
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: ever hit for me?
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: No?
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: Because I bet like an idiot, like I'll do. Last
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: year I had the Phillies with the Eagles, biggest loser
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: bet in my life. They both came in second. It
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: was like, really killed me. But I love these bets.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: My first question was, was this the end of your account?
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: Why twenty one dollars?
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: This was the end of my free role because I
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: had ridden the LSU BYU Bengals through the College Ball
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: World Series and I was just sprinkling money left and right.
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: Most of that money went on Colorado State to win
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: the Mound West. So it's not all been these epic
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: stories of potential payouts.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: And if you need a front, I'm happy to put
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: up ten K. But I don't think you need it.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: I believe in Washington like I I'm not a big
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: Pac twelve guy just because I've been East Coast basically.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: My whole life.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: I watched a little bit when I live in Vegas,
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: but not really into it. But since I've been in Hawaii,
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: like that's really been huge for me. I've been loving Washington, Washington,
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: and I'm in total agreeents with you where it's like
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: I can see how Michigan can win this game. Right,
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: they're big and they're bullies. They can bully these guys
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: and that's how they end up winning this game. But
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: the passing that's gonna be the difference here. Like if
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: you can throw the ball, which Alabama couldn't, on Michigan,
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: you can move the ball. So for me, and what
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: you just said is so true, like you're a live
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: dog here. I don't think most pros would disagree with
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: what the books have haulng this line at. I think
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: the public disagree as well. Like right now the money's
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: coming in on Washington, just like the week before where
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: you know, Washington was getting pounded on them. Money line
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: didn't matter, right, they dominated that game, they should have
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: won it.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: So I'm happy you're not hedging.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: I love this bet so much.
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: Washington eight and oh and one square games. It's probably
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: gonna take nine and oh to get it done. I
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: don't see them running away with it. But that gives
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: me extra confidence, Like if the game's tight, that's where
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: they've lived the entire season.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll follow along with Mike Calabrez. Check it
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: out in the Action Network app. He's got twenty one
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: dollars on the line to win sixteen thousand dollars with
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Washington at fifty to one, Lamar at fourteen to one.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Go Huskies. Don't forget RSVP in the link in the
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: description for this show to join me and Simon live
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Sheppard and the Knucklehead next Sunday. Watch the playoff games
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: wild Card Weekend on Sunday with us. Listen and attend
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: the live show at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead next Sunday,
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: free and tree free drinks. Join us Sunday, January fourteenth
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: if you love listening or watching us, listening to us
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: or watching us live, which you should because as we're
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: talking about the lines, you can hear and hear and
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: hear about them moving Catch our next episode live on
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Tuesday one forty five pm Eastern on Action Networks YouTube
• 46:22
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• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods rate review, subscribe
• 46:31
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• 46:33
  Speaker 1: gift until Tuesday one forty five pm Eastern. Love You
• 46:40
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• 46:45
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• 46:48
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