Latest / Winning With Winans! / Iran Conflict, Market History & Inflation: What Investors Need to Watch | Winning with Winans
Transcript
- winning with winans: So, first off, look, we're back into the the seesaw of the war with Iran. You know, I I brought it up on an ABC radio interview, and I'm also probably gonna write a piece about this in Forbes. history supports that getting out of war is difficult. For those of us who were around during Iraq in Afghanistan, both of those took a long time. Think of it the number of times we had to negotiate, renegotiate, have mediators. and then of course, for those of us I was very, very young, but Vietnam, we went back to the table seven different times and under multiple presidencies. So history basically is gonna tell us this is what's gonna be happening. Number two, look, and I I say this with a heart. I'm a veteran. I know people who served in combat. I know people who, you know, gold star families who've lost you know, members of their family or friends. Markets are not ethical creatures. Markets are there to they're an economic animal. And in my book, Investment Atlas Three, I went back and looked at wars, every basically every war since the war of eighteen twelve. And yeah, believe it or not, we did trade stocks back then, certainly not with computers, but on the floors. But the bottom line is mark everybody's saying the market shouldn't be doing this. This doesn't make any sense. Just like it was with Iraq and Afghanistan, the markets go up. The market is going up now. Again, however, we may morally feel about that. And it's no big surprise that defense stocks are one of the big issues. Now, if you were to ask me, what would I worry the most about with a prolonged military engagement? It is if he goes on too far too long, inflation really does become a sticky situation. And since this does involve the Middle East, every single time there's a comba or a conflict in the Middle East, oil prices do what they're doing now. They zigzag all over the place. And it does cause inflation. For those of us who at least studied it in school, the 1970s, that would had to do with an Arab Israeli war that went on quite for quite a period of time. So That would be my biggest worry that if if this was to go on too long.