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The State Of The Economy - Ed Siddell #5863 · Financial Survival Network

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  That is probably one of the unnerving things, you know, when you actually
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  going back to we were talking about, you know, a couple months ago,
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  fundamentally the numbers still aren't working, you know. I mean, we're
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  starting to see the expansion of the economy, the market lens that, but
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  you know, you've got all this debt, you know, and yes,
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  the national debt we're approaching thirty three trillion, but the consumer debt, the
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  corporate debt, and these loans that are coming due. You know, I
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  think the banks cannot absorb those assets and write it off. It's it's just
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  it's too expansive. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where you
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  Survival and Network dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
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  Network now more than ever, And welcome you are listening to watching the Financial
• 1:03
  Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry Lutz. Well, imagine if they
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  threw a recession and nobody came or have you heard that the economists are so
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  good they have called five out of the last three recessions. They're always calling
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  for recessions. Are they right? Are they wrong? Let's talk with our
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  good friend ed sidell and get the lowdown. So recession or no. You
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  know what, I think most of us assumed that the economy was not as
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  strong as as it is, myself included, right, And you know I've
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  been saying for since we were talking last year, right, that we've kind
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  of been in a rolling recession. And we had the two negative quarters of
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  GDP last year. So I think we actually had a recession last year,
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  but I really felt I thought the end of this year, going into twenty
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  twenty four, we were definitely going to have one. But I think the
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  economy stronger than and a little bit more resilient than what we anticipated. And
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  and you can see it in the markets, right, I mean, investors
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  are less fearful. If you look at the futures market, you know,
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  the dollar being weaker, which is a double edged sword, but that's kind
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  of helping, you know, the lifeblood of America, which are small businesses
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  because the exchange rate is is lower, so a less competition, and uh,
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  you know we're seeing it in small cap stocks so yeah, I think
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  we're going to continue to expand, and the GDP numbers are are showing that,
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  So yeah, I I we have it's going to be very very mild
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  at best. What about the commercial real estate apocalypse? What about hiking crisis
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  which is ongoing. They just took over pack West, they actually handled that
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  bank seizure the way they should have handled SVB. We wouldn't maybe have as
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  bad a banking disaster as we have now. Uh, you know they you
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  know Janet yellah, no, no, there will not be a bell out.
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  There will not be a bank baillout. And then I guess she got
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  the call from OWL and said, well, if there's no bank bailout,
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  there's no economy because it will result in a global collapse and bank runs and
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  every bank in every country on the planet. So but we still have those
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  two major things coming up. I don't know if the full huge extent of
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  the commercial meltdown, commercial real estate meltdown has been appreciated or understood by the
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  markets and its potential effect adverse effect on the banking sector. You know,
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  I think in my opinion that the markets and retail investors and and that's why
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  the growth in the market was so narrow, right, it's starting to broaden
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  out a little bit, but it's still very narrow. When you're when you're
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  thinking of, you know, a bull market and the economy expanding, they're
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  just ignoring it. So short term, um, you know, the market
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  is on an uptick and it is going to finish the year strong. The
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  caveat is debt UM and it's huge. You know, you've got the personal
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  debt credit cards. We talk about this all the time, all time high
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  people are living, offer credit cards to be able to make ends meet,
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  and then you've got the commercial loan. If the economy continues to be strong
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  and continues to expand, you know, I think the market has already priced
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  in one more raise UM. But if if it continues to grow and Pal
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  holds true to what he says and continues to raise rates, we're going to
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  see UM financial failure like we haven't seen before. It's it's it's going to
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  be huge because we're looking at over three trillion dollars coming new in the next
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  couple of years. UM. So I was talking to an executive of of
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  a large regional bank UM and they were telling me that they're not even writing
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  loans right now, UM and they're very strong I rated UM. But the
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  when these loans come due, the problem is is that the UM the they're
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  not going to be able to qualify with the new collateral requirements UM and and
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  have the money down to to go forward. So I think that is going
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  to be the that's an outlier, uh or that's a that's an issue,
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  that's that's on the outskirts right now that could hit home. UM. But
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  you know again, you know retail investors UM and the markets they're they're just
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  they're ignoring it, they're not seeing it. And you know it comes down
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  to you know what from investing, you know, you got to hit your
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  bets, make a little bit of hey while the sun shines, but you
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  can't get too greedy. Well, hey, you look at what's doing with
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  these office buildings. People are you know, come back somewhat but half of
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  them and hat is empty. And all these high rents that you've seen in
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  these major areas all predicated upon major occupancy rates high nineties plus and escalating rents
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  going up five to ten percent a year into the future. So now that
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  all those assumptions have been destroyed, we're left to pick up the pieces.
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  And you know, I'm not sure what you do with these boxy high rises.
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  They really don't work for residential because you know, most of the spaces
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  interior space that would not have any windows. I guess you could build storage
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  or grow houses, you know, and put apartments around the perimeter and have
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  you know, start growing crops there, whatever they might be, and and
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  really go hand in hand with the concept of the fifteen minute city, right,
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  Um, yeah, and and and that's that's probably one of the unnerving
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  things, you know, when you actually going back to we were talking about,
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  you know, a couple months ago. Um, fundamentally, the numbers
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  still aren't working, you know. I mean we're starting to see the expansion
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  of the economy, the market lengths that, but you know, you've got
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  all this debt, you know, and yes, the national debt we're approaching
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  thirty three trillion, but the consumer debt, the corporate debt, and these
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  loans that are coming due. You know, I think the banks cannot absorb
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  those assets and write it off. It's it's just it's too expansive. And
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  so you know, how how are they going to handle that? Um?
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  You know, the buyouts because it's going to be so large, you know,
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  are you going to have the Big three or Big four come in and
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  eat up all these these little banks and barblem all um, and then you
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  know, less competition. And it's really going to affect the small business owners
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  going forward, which is going to also be a dredge on on the economy
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  because a lot of businesses can't get the credit and loans right now to continue
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  to Yeah, and yet I continue to get credit card offers in my mailbox
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  every day. Inn't it crazy? It's nuts. Um. So I talking
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  to a car dealership owner of a car dealership, and uh, you know,
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  he was telling me that depending on the credit score for new cars,
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  unless you go directly from the manufacturer, um, you're having to put way
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  more money down than what you used to and especially if it's a used car.
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  But you know you have luxury vehicles like UTVs, ATVs, you know
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  those types where m you know, the used market was so excessive that banks
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  are finally starting to price in Well, you know that's not the real value.
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  We're not going to give you a loan on that, um. And
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  based on what the real value is, you're still going to have to put
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  a little bit down. So things are starting to change. Credits are really
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  starting to get tight all the way across the board. And so when you
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  see it from the you know, the the the asset appreciable asset class like
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  you know, cars and UTVs, ATVs and boats, um, you know,
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  just imagine what that's going to look like. You know, in the
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  commercial real estate space, it's going to be harder and harder for people to
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  refinance those loans and those deals to be bloody actually go ahead, it's going
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  to be a bloody mass. Say you see the big indicators, the RV
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  index. Yes, cells are down because that interest rates are up making them.
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  I guess if you want one of those one that's like a bus,
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  you know, you'd be paying more than a higher note than you'd be paying
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  on your house. And also the Rolex index. Rolex prices are down around
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  the world. And then we got China, which is an absolute basket case.
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  I don't I don't see where they come back, no matter how much
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  money they pump into the economy because you know, the real estate market is
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  dead in the water there. So we got like a lot of headwinds.
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  And yet I guess the pres option is the US economy. It's the best
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  looking house in Baltimore, right, the best of the worst, right.
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  I mean that's uh in in in in the near term. Um, you
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  know, through this year, I think it does not look bad. But
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  what scares me is, you know, the the weakening of the US dollar,
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  right and bricks a um, you know, the the US possibly losing
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  their status as the reserve currency of the world. You know, bricks are
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  coming in saying that, you know, they're going to have their digital currency,
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  but it's going to be backed by gold. Um. You know what's
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  that going to do to the US dollar? And if we lose the status
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  as the reserve currency of the world, you know for trading dollars. Um.
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  You know, life in America it's going to be it's going to be
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  different, it really is. And what's that going to look like as it
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  relates to you know, these loans that are outstanding. Yeah, Houston,
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  we have a problem, but but you know, the bricks thing doesn't really
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  bother me. Have been the worst performing economies for the past since the GFC,
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  since the global financial collapse, They've all performed horribly. You know,
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  China, you can't believe any our numbers are political diced and sliced, but
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  China's are lack of all credibility. They wouldn't lie about their numbers now,
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  not them, not them, But you know, you look at it and
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  then all of their Belton Road initiative that everyone was so enamored of. All
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  the countries are defaulting on that debt, and you know there's like a lot
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  so the bricks thing for the time being, who's gold? How much?
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  How can we trust them? Because you know the Chinese, you know,
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  you you got to take it with a grain. They're like into hyper hypothecation
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  and cross collateralizing the same collateral over and over and over again. We've seen
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  that. So you know, right now the dollar is where it's at.
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  If you've got to park ten billion dollars over the weekend, are you going
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  to put it in the Export Bank of China or are you going to put
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  it at JP Morgan Chase? Right? I mean, well, I think
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  that's why the dollar, you know, jumped up above one hundred again you
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  know it did below, But I mean where else are you going to go?
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  Because the you know, the economists looked at the GDP for for China
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  and said, well, you know, obviously it's it's inflated, um and
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  you know Russia, I mean, obviously that's that's not going to make a
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  whole lot of sense. So again, you know it's it's the best of
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  the worst. I mean, it really is. These are the best of
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  times. They were the worst of times. From a Tale of Two Cities
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  in the Dickens, you know, novel. So we're in the best of
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  all possible economies, we're in the worst. And I guess it depends where
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  you are. I mean the state of our cities here, they're just they're
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  self imploding, totally unnecessary, and they can't figure out why people are leaving.
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  You think personal safety might just play a role in that. Look at
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  you look at Florida. Real estate prices are up for the past year,
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  in the face of all of these rate hikes. They're up, and you
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  know what that my property down there? Yeah? You know what that Yeah,
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  there's no inventory. You know what that tells me people want to get
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  out of those blue It's not political, just the hike, prime declining quality
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  of life cities, and come to Florida and Texas and other places in the
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  South. Georgia's growing incredibly North Carolina, South Carolina. You know, they
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  are the poorer sisters of Florida. Really, Georgia two. Florida is the
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  wealthiest statement in the country, arguably other than you know, New York was
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  California. Florida probably has a clips it because the financial center has moved to
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  Miami from New York, all these hedge funds. You know, I knew
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  it when I moved down and I saw, oh, well, Goldman's open
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  in a little branch office here, just so the executives can get away during
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  the winter and work in the better climate. But I knew this was a
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  trend that they were all marching for the door. A point being here that
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  you know, if you're if you're getting diagnosed with a migraine and you have
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  a brain tumor, it's not going to do you much good in the long
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  run. Popping down those aspirants, they're not going to help. And they're
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  saying, well, you know, people are leaving these cities because they want
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  better weather. But you know, at some point you got to admit people
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  don't want to be in Chicago because they're afraid of their own personal safety.
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  And that is the biggest factor in the migratory trends, let's be honest about
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  it. Well, I mean, look at California. You've got a lot
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  of very very large, you know, private firms moving out. And the
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  gentleman, forgive me, I can't think of his name, who's running against
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  the the La da gascon um. You know, a common sense He's like,
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  you know, we're we're going to start, you know, prosecuting people
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  for crimes. What a novel idea? Yeah, I mean the fact that
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  that's what you're going to run on, um, it tells you the depravity,
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  the current level of depravity in the cities, in the lack of law
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  and order. Um. And I think people are tired of it, and
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  that's why they're migrating to those areas where they feel steep and can raise a
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  family. Hey, you know he's running on his opponents, running on the
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  we're going to prosecute crime, and he might lose. Look what happened with
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  the Chicago mayoral to race the guy who believes that the police cause crime one.
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  You know, yeah, well if you consider that they compile statistics,
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  and if you didn't have the police, there be no statistics. Therefore the
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  crime crime rate would be at zero, then yeah, the police cause crime.
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  You know, are they perfect? No, we all know that.
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  But I'd much rather see them patrolling the streets than than having to do it
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  myself and become a vigilante. And that's what they're They're embracing the return of
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  vigilanteism. And then if you defend yourself, you get prosecuted by these sos.
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  Soura's das right. Well, anyway, I don't want to. That's
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  exactly good. You know we could, yes, yeah, but you have
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  a whole other conversation on this. Yeah, and it's political. It's not
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  political, it's made no rights. Safety is a fundamental human right. You're
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  right to defend yourself, fundamental human right, nothing to do with politics,
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  And no you don't. It's an American right. I like liberty and the
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  happiness. I mean, that's really what it comes down to. You in
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  your light and liberty and if you're if you can move about freely without being
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  in fear for your life. Um, when when you're having encampments in your
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  yard and you're having to leave your your windows rolled down and your car unlocked
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  so that people don't break into it, this is not a political thing.
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  This is more of a look depravity of the system and what do we need
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  to do to fix it? Um? You know. The good thing is
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  is that people are saying we're done, We're tired of it, and you
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  know, I, you know, I hopefully they they've woken the sleeping giant
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  and things are going to start to turn and we'll get the people in office
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  to fix it. Were what side of the fence? As long as it
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  gets fixed, let us hope, I mean, yeah, guess you know,
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  the South has lots of problems. Traditionally the South was more violent than
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  the North. Um, and that all changed, you know a number of
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  years ago. Where the north you know. Well, in any event,
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  Hey, Ed, tell us where we find you? How we connect with
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  you on the web? Yeah? EGSI financial dot com. That is the
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  best place to find us, all right, eg SI Financial dot com.
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  Yeah, okay, The link to that is in the show notes on this
• 18:14
  interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Make sure you go there. Sign
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  up for your free newsletter and if you've got a question comment for Ed myself
• 18:23
  email k l at kryltz dot com. Write your YouTube comments down below,
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  sign you know, subscribe, share all that good stuff, favorite and ed.
• 18:33
  We'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for coming on, Hey,
• 18:37
  thanks for having me, Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network,
• 18:41
  your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival
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  Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,