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Honey, it's Week 6: FULL PREVIEW · Honey, It's Saturday

• Sam: What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to the Honey It's Saturday podcast. I'm Sam Grant. Got Mitch Williams over there. It is currently 5 50 AM. And Mitch and I both are over here drinking our coffees. Just said a quick, Mitch: I'm wide awake. Sam: yeah, wide awake. Just said a a quick little pre-podcast prayer. Just just thanking the Lord for the ability to be able to do this and have fun and the friendship and how we've grown through this and biz busy work schedules for both of us. So being able to get this this this filmed in the morning to give us time to spend with our wives on the back half of the night when they're awake is a is a is a is a priority that we make sure we we spend time with them. So this is a commitment we have to make. It's early morning, but man, are am I excited to be here right now? Mitch: Yeah, a couple things on that. So first of all, honey, it's not Saturday. So priority is a hundred percent spending time with our wives this week. It was also Keaton's birthday. Keaton from the pick segment with her records and everything else. The honey from my side of the podcast. Sam: Happy birthday, Keaton. Mitch: Happy birthday to Keaton this week. And Sam, I gotta tell you something pretty, pretty sad. Have you ever taking a frozen pizza out of the oven and just immediately cut into it and started eating. Sam: No, usually I let it sit for a little bit. Mitch: Well, I was in a time crunch two days ago and so I took my frozen pizza out of the oven, not delivery de giorno, cut it straight open, took a bite, put the whole thing down before I'd even realized I couldn't feel the roof of my mouth at all. Sam: It took you that long to realize that. Mitch: So I burned the roof of my mouth on a frozen pizza and this coffee is I need it desperately, but it is painful to sip on. Sam: so it's still lingering, still you're still feeling the effects Mitch: it's still Sam: of that. Mitch: it's still lingering. Yeah. Yeah. So I just thought the people would want to know. I thought you'd want to know. And I I just wanna warn you guys, don't ever do it. Even if you're into time crunch, it's not worth it. Sam: Yeah, I think that should be a new segment just called Honey, Don't Do That. I would have thought. Mitch: Honey, don't don't burn your mouth. Sam: Yeah, exactly. Well, I I'll tell you what not to do is be Southern Miss last night. They allowed four hundred and thirty-seven rushing yards to Troy and they put up fifty five Mitch: I saw that. Sam: points. But how amazing is that? Like, we're filming this right now Wednesday morning. They're just a all sunbelt football game last night. Like I I love this time of year, man. Mitch: There's already a game. Yeah. Sam: There's already a game. There's a game tonight. Like it's just nonstop. Mitch: I will tell you though, if I was a head coach, I'm not sure how I feel about a Tuesday night game. Sam: No, I think there would have to be like your bye weeks the following week or some c some kind of caveat to like make that work into the schedule, but definitely not ideal. Mitch: Well, I from from a viewership perspective it's great. And I'm sure in their conference maybe they have back to back week midweek games or something else to kind of even it out. But yeah, that's their defense did not look great yesterday. And Troy was just moving the ball. Sam: Yeah. Yeah, definitely definitely moving the ball at ease. But really really hoping Southern Miss succeeds. I lo I love their coach. he's always a the coach who's a who's a firm believer in his faith. He wears the Jesus is king shirt as he walks into a home or away game. No he he he represents represents Christ through his actions and always l always love rooting for guys like that. So I hope he succeeds, but I think they're one and four right now, so not looking too hot. Mitch: That's all right. He already won with Christ. So anything more is a bonus. Sam: That's right. That's the vic that's the victory that matters. Mitch: anything more as a bonus, but I'm sure he'd like some wins on the field. So I think we need to just go straight into our pick seven segment. If you watch our recap show, then you know we've already gone through the results from this past week. I had a decent week. Sam had a little bit of a tougher one. but we're gonna go over our preview slate as a reminder. We get points for these seven teams that we picked before the season started with a budget. We get points for wins, we get points for margin of victory, we get bonus points for ranked wins and shutouts. We lose points for margin of loss, for losses, and I think that's pretty much the name of the game, the rules of the game. That's how it that's how it goes. So Sam, I'm gonna let you Just let the people know how many points you have total through week five, and then we're gonna go over your matchups this week. Sam: Yeah. So so right now in the whole group that mention I are in this league, we're we're both top ten right now. So I feel like we're both sitting in a pretty good spot. I'm adding in the new graphic for the pick seven. adding in kind of making the the show a little bit better graphic wise, making sure everything's included. So if you got any feedback on any of this stuff, ways to make it look a little bit prettier, please reach out. But right now I have a total of five hundred and thirty two points. Lost twenty points last week after some rough losses by Colorado State, Michigan State. Thankfully Colorado State has a bye this week to get the whole defense coordinator thing figured out. So that's a that's a win in my favor. So starting off with my first team, I got Tennessee. they are playing the Arkansas Razorbacks. This should be a defensive hopefully we get a shutout. That would be great to get some points. run the football. Just love would love a good margin of victory type win here. Which would be much needed for Tennessee as they kinda go into a pretty big week the following against Alabama. Virginia Mitch: On the on on the shutout note there, I think it's very feasible based off what I saw from KJ Jackson and College Station this past weekend. However, after doing a little bit more of a statistical breakdown on on Arkansas, 'cause after the game, I'm an AM fan. I want to know what can I actually take away from this as a positive moving forward, and how much of it is just Arkansas, unfortunately, is trash. So I was doing that and I Again, I'm not sure how much you really can take. But what I will say is AM's defense needed to have a solid week, specifically in our secondary. And Chris Marshall does lead the SEC in rece receiving yards, at least going into that game, he did. And I think AM did a pretty good job in the secondary. Marshall got his, especially in the in the early moments of that game. But to bring it back to the Tennessee thing, Arkansas did get. 300 plus yards of total offense against both Georgia and Utah. Now last week they got around 200. Last week they got around 200. So there may be a little bit of a regression coming, and they may their buy-in is, I'm sure, slowly fading. So very much potential for a shutout for Tennessee. That defense is lights out. But they did put up 300 plus total yards against Georgia. Sam: They did. So that it it's interesting to think that how much kind of offensive production they have, but their inability to just score, whether they get in the red zone or get backed up and honestly just doesn't doesn't Mitch: Also, Sam: quite make any sense. Mitch: I'm sorry, I I know we're not supposed to get on Arkansas tangent here, but I just I had one more major issue with Arkansas from that AM game that I didn't talk about on the recap show. If you are a first year head coach establishing credibility in the SEC, you know you're struggling. I'm talking about you, Ryan Silverfield. You're going on the road to college station and you're representing your university in the SEC. Why are you wearing a t shirt? My boy was wearing a dry fit Nike t shirt the whole game. Wasn't even Arkansas colors, it was black. What are we doing? Sam: Yeah. And I think that's a T shirt you get from like the bookstore. Like, Mitch: Like what are we doing? Sam: Keith's got access to all the Arkansas gear and that's what he chose, but Mitch: The camera kept painting to him and I I just couldn't believe it. So anyways, I I think that's a rough look. Sam: Yeah, no, I agree. And that that whole team and just everything from the the board to the A D is just just a very interesting situation to where we talked about it a little bit last week of like potential hot seat. And I I again it's year one for him, but I think just with all the turnover that there may potentially be in Arkansas, they may just want a a fresh slate. But one one thing that stuck out to me this week was their their DC Ron Roberts. He's a he's a pretty well known DC that's been around. He was a Baylor, he's been in Florida before. He was talking about how Tennessee rushed for over two hundred yards against Auburn and Bishop had three touchdowns and how he's gonna throw a ball over the press box if that happens to his defense. So when you're when you're at the point for Arkansas and you give a team like Tennessee that kind of bulletin board material, there's gonna be an ESPN shot of him throwing up in the press box. So that Mitch: Does he know he just gave up a ton of yards to two true freshmen in college station last week on the ground? Sam: Hey, I guess he just treats it week by week and forgets what happens before. So not a bad mindset for your team, Mitch: Ha ha. Sam: but not realistic in this case. All right. Let's let's let's let's move on. That's our Tennessee Arkansas breakdown, everybody. Virginia Tech versus California. VT is a nine and a half point favorite. It's a good get back spot for the for the Hokies. I think Cal is it without their starting quarterback. I think he got hurt. Mitch: Yeah, this is a head to head for Sam and I cows in my set of seven and I'm not feeling good about this one. Sam: Yeah. So again, good margin of victory potential for me here. USF versus UTSA. USF is a seven point underdog, which this is a game that's on Friday night. Big G five implication or yeah, G f G six implications, excuse me. not sure offensively if USF can keep up, but if USF could get this win, that would be huge for them. Oklahoma State plays UCF, they're a seven and a half point favorite. I think if UCF still doesn't have their starting quarterback, Oklahoma State will kinda coast a little bit with this. I just I don't think there's anybody in the Big Twelve right now that can stop Mestimaker and that offense. So feel comfortable by that one. Wake Forest versus N C State. Wake is a three and a half point favorite. N C State had a big win last week against Louisville and has kinda turned it around after a embarrassing loss to Virginia and just another embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt, but With the way Wake Forest has been playing, man, I don't think there's any way that any way that Wake can lose that. Sorry, fighting through that that ringer adversity right here. Mitch: If you guys could hear that it's early in the morning and I did not turn off my regular alarm, so it's time to wake up. Sam: You know, that's just another another w another way to get us choosed out here. Michigan State Mitch: We push through adversity on the Honey It's Saturday podcast, by the way. Sam: That's right, we fight through it. That's why we're doing this at six AM as well. Michigan State versus Illinois. Michigan State's a two and a half one underdog. Good chance for Michigan State to get in the win column here. Again, I know they're underdogs, they've had some rough season, but Illinois has two. So this is kind of pretty of two lower level teams right now in the Big Ten, but you gotta comparison of a first year head coach and a guy who's been established at Illinois for a while. So this is a chance for a a a get back spot and just kinda have a look good good good pathway to be able to get through the season for Michigan State. And then thank goodness Colorado State has a bye. I I Mitch: Ha ha ha. Sam: need I need that so I can stay away from their negative points after the last couple of weeks. Mitch: Well, hopefully they take Sam: Yeah. Mitch: that bye week, rest up, and look like a different team coming out of it. But I I don't know. I think looking at your slate, I feel pretty good about where you're sitting with an opportunity to bounce back this week. I think there's a couple games. Michigan State, Illinois. I mean, both of those teams need to win really bad. So Sam: Yeah. Mitch: that one's gonna be interesting. I'm not sure who I'm more confident in at this point. but I mean I think you've definitely got a chance there and then the rest of the slate. I I I'm feeling okay for you. I think that U T S A one's probably the scariest if I'm sitting in your chair. Sam: Yeah, no, that's that's definitely the one I'm most worried about and especially for me with what USF's point value was, to be able to get them on the pick seven kind of roster. They've definitely Mitch: Mm-hmm. Sam: underperformed. So if they can get a bull bounce back, that would be great here. But with the way U T S A's offense has been playing, I don't envision that really. Mitch: Yeah, we'll see. Anything could happen, week to week for sure. going into my set, I'm sitting at 621 points. I got 86 last week. And I would love to Sam: Yeah. Mitch: stack good weeks back to back. I haven't really had a chance to do or I've had chances to do this, but I haven't put them together like that. I've really been leapfrogging myself. I'll have one good week and then a pretty bad one and then another good one and then a pretty bad one. So it's like a slow crawl. And I think that's been kind of consistent, honestly, for for Sam as well. So we've been jumping each other week to week. But I would love to capitalize off this. I think it'd be big for the rest of the season if I could put two good ones together. And let's get into the slate and figure out if we think that's feasible. First off, We've got Oregon and UCLA. The spread is 11 and a half in this game. And Oregon has been looking better. And I think they're going to rally. I think they've they've hit that point. I think they hit it in the USC game. Sam talked about it. When that injury to Dante Moore happened, it seemed like the team just responded exactly how you would want them to respond. And Rayola came in and obviously balled out. And so. Regardless of quarterback health, I think this is a team that can compete at a very high level against just about anybody on their day. We've also seen them not on their day twice this year. So I'm not gonna sit here and be fully confident that Oregon is gonna be back. But this UCLA team's good. They've looked really good. And so I I don't know. The 11 and a half seems like a lot of points to me just right off the bat, if I'm looking at it. But having said that. I like my ducks. I like Dane Lanning. A win here would be huge. So that's that's game one. We got Indiana, Nebraska. Nebraska's undefeated. Calandria quarterback's looking really good. I need Hoover to lock in for this game. I need the defense to lock in for this game. I think if those two things happen, Indiana can give me some points here. It it it does worry me a little bit though. I will admit this game worries me a little bit. Especially especially since Sam: Yeah. This is especially the way they've Indiana's been playing this year. A little bit more of kind of a opportunity. It's tr it yeah, it's a new noon Mitch: Agree, especially since it's in Lincoln as well. It it Sam: kick though. Mitch: nooncake, but I don't know. I mean that game those games are sold out regardless. Like I know they're gonna show up. They got nothing else better to do on a Saturday in Nebraska, so Sam: That's true. Mitch: I know the place is gonna be packed out. And I say that as an AM fan, it's true for us as well in College Station, by the way. North Dakota State and UNLV. This is a real test, probably the biggest test for North Dakota State so far this year. They've passed with flying colors pretty much every week. The Air Force game gave them a little bit of a scare. Air Force is a pretty good team, though. UNLV is coming off that Calwin. And they looked really good last week. And this is on the road for North Dakota State. So favored by three and a half or yeah, and North Dakota State's favored by three and a half. I I don't know. We'll see. I think that defense is going to need to step up and they're going to be able to run the ball, but that's just what they do. That's their identity. That's what they do. So I'm confident in the bison. I'm a huge bison fan, but that's going to be a a real test for them this week. And then Cal Virginia Tech, we already talked about. The reason I need everyone else to step up this week is because I think this one could go really south. I mean, Cal is banged up not just at quarterback, they're banged up all over the field right now. And they're limping into this game. And Virginia Tech's in a bounce back spot after last week. This one has potential to get really out of hand, I think. Sam: Agreed. Mitch: so I'm hoping that doesn't happen. And then we've got Delaware on by. So I don't have to talk about the Blue Hens this week. Oregon State is playing San Diego State. Oregon State's looking better and better every week. Their offensive production is elite. Like if you just look at this, I'm not going to go into a detailed breakdown right now, but their offense is cooking, is clicking, specifically in the passing game. and so I feel good about this one. They're favored by 14 and a half. I think that says a lot, especially for me. The point value I got Oregon State for was very low. So I'm feeling pretty good about Oregon State at this point in time. And then Sam Houston State is Going to Liberty. This is back-to-back weeks that I have one of my lower level teams playing the Flames. The Flames are playing really good football right now. I don't feel good about Sam Houston. They're underdogs by 13.5 this week. Just keep it close as much as you can, please. but I don't I don't see them winning that game. Anything can happen. I don't see them winning that game. Sam: Don't let the flames get hot. Just had to say that. Mitch: Fan the flames. Don't let the flames get high. Well. Sam: Well, I'm gonna take liberty plus thirteen and half. Mitch: Okay. Is this your is this your preview of your lock of the week or something? Sam: No, that's just if you want to make more money, if you're a betting man. Just throwing that out there. Mitch: Got it. Okay. Yeah, I don't I don't necessarily disagree with you. So thanks Sam: Yeah. Mitch: for bearing with us through our preview of the seven. We'll keep you guys updated as always. Can't wait for the recap. And we have one of our favorite segments. We've got the rankings debate segment coming in here. Where we're gonna pop in three random teams, and then Sam and I each have to buy, sell, hold for the rest of the year. This gets honestly more and more interesting every week. So Sam: Yeah. Mitch: And Sam and Sam: I Mitch: I we don't tend to agree on these, I've noticed. Sam: Mm-mm. No, we don't. Usually we're a little bit different, but that that's good that's good for the content. So I do have one question for you though. And this this can go for the audience as well. We have recently, if you guys haven't had a chance to watch the podcast we released on Tuesday, there's the the Honey It's Saturday poll that has been released that we are gonna be updating every single week. Is this something we wanna include our Honey It Saturday pull in from our rankings? Or should we stick to the AP top twenty five? Today it's gonna be AP AP top twenty five, but just going forward, Mitch: Well, Sam, Sam: any feedback would be great. Mitch: we we can take fe feedback, but I also want to say this. I mean, our poll is perfect. Our poll is straight from our heart. So I can't tell you who's overrated or underrated in our poll, because everyone's perfectly rated. There are no flaws and no discrepancies. Like that just it is what it is. So I think we need to go Sam: Yeah. Mitch: AP poll. Sam: Okay. Yeah, silly me. Really bad idea. We're perfect. Mitch: Our poll is flawless. Sam: man. Well, from the A B top twenty five poll for this week, the three teams we got is the number sixteen Florida Gators, the number eighteen ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the number twenty four ranked SMU Cowboys. Mitch: Most things. Sam: Mustangs, my bad. Mitch: Man, we're disrespecting the ponies on a on a Wednesday morning. That's crazy. It's just one more sip of coffee. It was just one sip of coffee away. I trust me, Sam Sam: Yeah, here that Mitch: knows the the mascot down in Dallas, don't worry. Okay. Sam: Yes, I do. Mitch: So we've got Oklahoma State, who I believe was actually on here last week too. We've got SMU and then the third one is Florida. Sam: Mm-hmm. Mitch: Bam. Okay. Sam: Do you want to swap out Oklahoma State since we had them last week? Or we let it ride? Okay. Okay. So Mitch: Absolutely not. Let's leave it. I like it. So I'll I I can kick us off. Sam: Okay. All right. Let's see what you got. Mitch: I'm gonna go ahead and hit my cell first. I'm out on SMU. For me, I haven't Sam: Okay. Mitch: seen what I want to see. I think they're too turnover prone. They're not efficient like I need them to be. And defensively, they've got a ton of talent. They can keep themselves in a lot of games, but I I don't know. I I don't feel like they're as airtight as they've been the past couple years. Now, their schedule's not so bad. So they very well could keep themselves in these conversations for the rest of the year. But if I'm going to pick between these three schools, I'm going to sell SMU right now. Similarly, if we're talking about a schedule, I'm going to hold Florida. I'm going to hold Florida. I think they're an incredibly talented team. When that offense is clicking, I don't think there's anybody in the country that can stop them. But We just seen they're capable of a week like Jaden Ball hitting thirteen yards. And so when when that happens, There are a lot of teams that could probably beat them any given week. Now, it takes a certain level of defense. Like Missouri's front is very good. Their run defense has been great this year. And so full credit to them for what they did to Florida this past week. But if your offense is capable of that, but they're also capable of exploding like they did on Ole Miss the week before, there's just some questions. But I still believe Florida can be a really good team. But it's it's a tough conference schedule. So I'm gonna hold them and then I'm gonna buy Oklahoma State because as the weeks go by, I'm I'm feeling more and more confident in Drew Mestermaker and the boys. Like, it just is what it is. And the Big 12, I think they're incredibly fun to watch. I think they fit that conference so well. They're gonna have some games that are close. Even this week, they've got a pretty tough matchup. But I like the trajectory of that program. And so I'm gonna buy Oklahoma State out of these three for the rest of the year. Sam: Well, we started this segment talking about how Mitch and I have some good variety and differating picks that kind of makes this segment a little bit unique because we're never on the same page. I am on the exact same page and I couldn't have said it better myself. Mitch: Ha ha ha. Sam: So everything Mitch just said, dig in, I I I am in complete agreance with. I think Oklahoma State's just continued to get hot. I think Florida kind of was provide Florida provided to the rest of the SEC a little bit of a a a game plan for how to approach playing them after a really hard start of the season. And SMU for me shouldn't even be ranked. So I think I think that is just Mitch: Just say it with your chest. Sam: I'm just saying it even louder. Mitch: Was SMU in the Honey It Saturday poll? Sam: I don't think so. Mitch: Pop quiz, no they were not. I agree with you. SMU should not be ranked. Flawless rankings. Sam: That's right. So if you will if you looked at our rankings, they wouldn't even been in this poll. But yeah, I think you were you you hit it pretty spot on. So both those three teams, I feel like at this point in the season too, you can kind of see the trajectory and the way that they're going. So after what, week five now, we've been able to kind of get an idea for these teams, which makes it exciting to be able to predict games a little bit better. but there's still some games this week that I'm not sure which way I'm gonna go and we're about to start this next segment. So I better lock in here. So first game I know. Mitch: You better figure out which way you're gonna go. Yeah. Sam: First game we're gonna talk about is a Friday Friday game on October ninth at ten fifteen AM in Provo, Utah. Mitch: PM. But yes, he's correct. Sam: What I say. Mitch: It's early, man. It's you said ten fifteen AM. I just had to let the people know that it's at ten fifteen PM. But I feel like that was pretty obvious. Sam: I mean, I don't know, you guys should be watching Fox at ten fifteen AM anyway, so you would have found out one way or another. Mitch: Yeah, it's true. Sam: I'm just kidding. But ten fifteen PM, Iowa State going to Provo Utah to play the BYU Cougars. BYU is currently a ten and a half point favorite, which seems high to me comparative to how they were favored last week against TCU. Maybe that's just the home field looked into it or caked into it. So Mitch, what what what what are you thinking for this game? Mitch: I don't know. I I didn't like what I saw from BYU last week. I think they still have a lot to prove. They're sitting at number eight in the country right now. They're a top ten team. I think the key for me in this one is it's a Friday night at home. And I will tell you that atmosphere in Provo can get going. Like it can get really going. They they know there may not be a lot of diversity in that crowd, but they know what they're doing. And I I bake that into my pick. I also think there are gonna be teams that will expose BYU this year in the Big Twelve. But at this point in the season, based off what I've seen from Iowa State, I'm not confident that it's going to be the Cyclones. I just I don't know, especially recently it kind of feels like they're hitting a little bit of a wall. They're still fighting through some growing pains. And BYU's defense, if we're going to talk about them, I think their offense has a lot of questions. Their defense, though, has looked really good. They're giving up 75 rush yards a game. They're giving up 179 passing yards per game. So under 200. They've looked really good. Now they haven't played a ton of competition, but I just, I don't think this is the week that they get got at home at night on a Friday. I'm going to take BYU. Sam: Yeah, I think I think the home home field factor is big for me here as well. big game Friday night. I think BYU, again, I'm not super high on them. I honestly think this point spreads a bit high. but for Iowa State being a a new coaching staff, new team, they had a great win last week against West Virginia. West Virginia's dropped a couple back to back. So maybe again goes back to how good is West Virginia, but maybe I'm asking Mitch: Mm-hmm. Sam: the wrong question of how good is Iowa State? How are they continuing to grow on a week by week basis? Mitch: Well, and I should give credit to Iowa State for that West Virginia win 'cause I did watch a lot of that game and I mean they were in a hole and then they clawed back and then they lost. Like it was it was a very entertaining college football game, by the way. We didn't touch on that a ton in our recap show, but that was big for them. So I guess when I say hitting the wall, I don't mean completely. 'Cause obviously they're coming off that that pretty big win at West Virginia, but I don't know. I I just think Iowa State's defense has a lot of problems. So I Sam: Yes. Mitch: I'm just not sure this is the stumbling block for BYE. Sam: Yeah, no, I I agree with that for sure. I I think for Iowa State playing BYU is a totally different level of competition than what they've seen, especially being in that environment. The way BYU's defense is playing, Iowa State's defense is incredibly vulnerable. So I I think this game is closer than kind of the experts would think, but I I it's hard for me to be able to pick against BYU for this one. Mitch: If you want a padlock stat, I'll give it to you before we go into the next game. Are you ready for this? Sam: Let's hear it. Mitch: BYU is number one nationally at this point this season in rush success rate defensively. So top run defense in the country based off who they've played. Iowa State is 95th in rush defense efficiency. And BYU Sam: yikes. Yeah. Mitch: can run the dang ball. Quarterback, running back. Sam: Yeah. Mitch: All over. So I I just don't think that bodes super well. Sam: No. Yeah, it's a it's a it's a phenomenal padlock stat. You've done your research, so shout out Mitch Mitch: Yeah. Sam: for that one. I do not have a padlock stat for this game. Mitch: Thanks, man. All right. Sam: man. So that looks looks pretty good for us both being on the same page for BYU. I hope I hope my wife's on the same page with me. I haven't had a chance to look at her picks, but I cannot get beat by her again this week. Mitch: Sam does not wanna he's trying to escape that hat at all costs. And Sam: Yeah. Mitch: let me let you guys know before we get into this next game, which is a very intriguing one in the Big Ten. If you're wondering about our credibility, I'll just let you know. I'm 15 and 1 in the last two weeks of my picks on this segment. So if you guys are wondering, can I even trust these Honey at Saturday dudes? What's going on here? I've I'm thinking about, you know, some other side bets or whatever I want to do for the week. Like, whatever your thing is, just know we do this from the heart. Like We're we're not here just messing around. I'm fifteen and one in the last two weeks. Probably means I'm going two and six this week, but we'll see. Sam: That's right. And the caveat there is we are not liable for any financial decisions or mistakes that are made. Mitch: No, that's that's why I said whatever you choose to do, like, just make sure you're being responsible with your resources and the things that God has given you to steward. but I just wanted to let you know we're establishing some credibility here. Sam: That's right. More more Mitch than myself, so. Mitch: Yeah. All right. Anyways. No, Sam's doing really well too. He's just not 15 and 1 the last two weeks. So Indiana. Sam: Yeah. Mitch: Indiana, the Hoosers. We talked about this a little bit in the pick seven, but they are playing Nebraska in Lincoln this week. You're favored by seven and a half points. I'm very intrigued. I now look. Nebraska's an undefeated team in the Big Ten. This is their opportunity from their perspective to say, okay, yes, we've kind of played this game in the past where we opened the season really well. Everyone thinks we're back to be in Nebraska, and then it just falls off the rails for Matt Rule and the and the gang, and then they have to reset for the next year. They've done that. They've played that game. This is their chance to say, okay, yeah, this is it. We're different this time around. Calandria's balling. We're looking great on the defensive side of the ball, which we could talk about TBD a little bit. but we could talk about that. And this will be a huge statement for them to dethrone the reigning national champions in Indiana. So opportunity for Nebraska at home. It is a noon game. And then for Indiana, again, you've looked good, but you had that Northwestern kind of, what am I really looking at here game? Northwestern looks like a really good team, but this is your opportunity to say, we're taking all the question marks off. We're back, we're still Indiana, I'm still Kurt Signetti. You're gonna have to come through us. So I don't know. This is a very intriguing matchup at noon. I'm gonna roll with the Hoosers. And I'm gonna roll with the Hoosers because I think there's more questions around Nebraska than there are around Indiana. But I need Josh Hoover to play good football. I need him to play clean football. I need him to not turn the ball over and I need him to hit his guys. I think they can run the ball. I'm not concerned about their run game. They're averaging two hundred and fifty rush yards a game. I think that offense is gonna do its thing on the ground. I just need for them to get that air attack going. And I think if they do that, I think they're gonna come out of Lincoln with a game. And I I I think they can also keep the ball out of Calandri's hands a little bit with that run game. So I'm gonna take Indiana in this one. I don't know if they cover that seven and a half though, because I don't know. I think I think Nebraska might be an improved team this year. Sam: Yeah, I I I loved I loved how you kinda propped up in Nebraska there at the beginning of kind of talking through, hey, they're they're at this spot pretty much it seems like every single year. They have this big time, like big noon kickoff, big game where it's like, okay, Nebraska's back, like this is their moment. And I think this is just gonna be kind of how it is in the Matt Rule era. I I I don't I don't think they have enough to be able to compete with Indiana at this point. Nebraska hasn't. necessarily played the level of competition that Indiana's gonna bring to the table on Saturday. I know this environment's gonna be rocking. it's gonna be an awesome, awesome game. But I think I think Indiana's just better prepared, better roster, Hoover's first game on the road. I think he kind of makes a statement, bounces back from some some rough quarterback play and he find he kind of finds his groove and Sadly, I think Nebraska kind of 'cause I love when Nebraska's good in college football. That fan base is one of the most passionate ones and I would love for them to be able to get this game, but for me, I I think it's just kind of rinse and repeat of hey, you get this big time game, and it's just kind of turns into a pretty big flop. So I I I'm gonna take Indiana to win this game. go into Lincoln and and come out with a pretty big win. Mitch: Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, here's what I'll say. Nebraska's allowing right at 100 yards a game on the ground. They're allowing 160 yards a game through the air. So their defense to this point has been really stout. But they've played Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State, and Maryland. Those are their five wins. So we don't really know a ton. Sam: Yeah. And they really struggled last week. Mitch: Yet they did, and we don't really know a ton. The the other thing I will say though. They've scored 31 plus in all five games. So their offense seems to be legit. Kalindria looks really good. I just this is their first real test. So we're gonna find out. Also, fun fact before we move on, Indiana is only one and four against the spread this year. Sam: Hmm. Interesting. Man, you were on it with the stats this morning. Mitch: Well one and four against the spread. You know me. If we're doing a podcast, I had to build a model. So I've got a little model I've started Sam: Mm-hmm. Mitch: using. And I I can share it with Sam for the future. But I might make it I might keep it proprietary because I can't I can't share all my secrets. but I do have a little bit of a model that I'm referencing for these matchups this week. And Indiana is one and four against the spread. Nebraska on the flip side of that is four and one against the spread. So just an intriguing matchup, but I do like the Hoosiers. Sam: Yeah. Yeah, that's you're gonna have to share that with me. Usually you're pretty good you're Mitch: Yeah, we'll see about that. Sam: pretty good. Hey man, this is the Honey of Saturday podcast. It's not where like two separate groups come together to co host a show. but but yeah, I'm just impressed for as early as it is that you came this prepared. So I love it. Mitch: Google is free, man. Google is free. All right, we got Sam: Google Google is free. And you know you know what's not free at this point is Marcel Reid and the amount of money that AM is paying him. And this is a moment for him this week as they go to Columbia, Missouri as three and a half point underdogs for your Aggies. So as the Aggie out of the two of us, I I would love for you to lead off this game of Texas A and versus Missouri. Mitch: I think on paper, this is a game that does not look great for the Maroon and White whatsoever. But I also think this is a huge opportunity for Texas AM to get a statement win on the road. That's not completely out of the question. Missouri's a great team and they just completely stamped Florida last week. But I don't think that AM going on the road to Mizzou this week and winning is completely out of the question. I don't think so at all. So I think this is a huge opportunity for the Aggies to get right and get going. And they better fast because Alabama's coming. So they better get right fast. And for Missouri, they look like a great team. Their defense, I mean, they're allowing 88 run run yards per game. That's a that's a low number. And we all saw what they did against what was the number one rushing offense in the country, too, in Florida last week. So that's huge. They're a little bit vulnerable through the air, but that's where you got to ask yourself: can Marcel Reed even expose that? I don't know. If we get the best version of Marcel Reed, probably. If he's using his legs and his arms, so he's a little bit of a dual threat, it opens up the game a little bit more. I think you saw that more against Arkansas last week. It's Arkansas. So again, I don't know how much you can take away from that, but I would say schematically, Aiden changed a lot of things this past week. They made things easier for Marcel, a lot more quick reads. If it's not there through your progressions quickly, hit the ground, find your spot. I think he did a great job of executing that. His numbers won't jump off the page, but he ran the ball well. He threw the ball with a lot better efficiency this past week. And I I think if they use a scheme that's similar to what they did against Arkansas, that's gonna put the offense in the best position to succeed. They also started using two true freshman running backs in Carson Baker and KJ Edwards last week that look electric. Both of them are incredibly talented. So I think they're gonna start to get involved with the offense a little bit more. but from the Missouri perspective Austin Simmons is balling. I mean that guy he's just making throw after throw after throw he doesn't make mistakes he looks great. And the offense is clicking along with the defense. And when those two things are going together, Drinkowitz and the gang, that they're tough to stop. They're at home. it is a noon kickoff. So noon kickoff at home, sometimes sometimes I think a noon kickoff at home can favor the away team. I think it's easier to get up for a game when you're on the road at 12 instead of at home at 12. But what do I know? I'm not the guys in the locker room. I just think if AM can find a way to establish the run in this game against a really stout Missouri run defense, it gives them a chance. If they can't do that, this one could get out of hand pretty quick. But the spread's only three and a half, which I think would surprise a lot of people based off the way these two teams have looked throughout this year. So I'm gonna take AM to get it done. I'm gonna take AM to get it done. Sam: Who would have guessed that was comin'? Mitch: Partly because this is coming from my heart. I I think this is a really tough matchup for the Aggies. But I just I have to believe Elko is in there and he knows how critical it is. He's, you know, they've been exposed at this point in the year. So they've got a lot of things to work on, but they've had a couple weeks to get it done. They had a tune-up game against Arkansas. I think they're gonna get it done. The secondary has to look good. I think they force a couple turnovers and My key stat here, Elko versus Drinkowitz has been a no-contest so far in his career. He's 3-0 against Drinkowitz, and the games have not been close. 35-14 and 21, 41-10 and 24, 38-17 and 20-25. Like the games have not been close. He's got Drinkowitz's number, and I think that's going to play a factor. Sam: Yeah, but Drankwood has Simmons a quarter by this year. I mean I I Mitch: You know, Sam: think Mitch: the funny thing about Missouri is every single year we hear a lot about their quarterback. Now, I think Austin Simmons is next level. I think he's above what we've seen in the past couple years. But I mean every single year, I feel like because Trinkowitz is a quarterback guru, he's that guy, they've always got an an offense that's pretty confident. I just feel like they tend to hit a wall at some point. Now I will say, I don't think this is that year. I just think A and M's gonna go get the job done. But yeah, you you have a good point there. Sam: Yeah, and I think for me, we talk about Missouri as that team every year that's pretty consistently good in the SEC, but what is it gonna take to get over that hump? I think last week was that. I find it really hard to s to see Texas A and establishing the run if Florida and Jaden Ball couldn't establish the run. That's that's just kind of my personal opinion. I could be wrong. Mitch: Mississippi State did it. Sam: That's true, but they also have a little bit more of a diverse attack where they spread you out pretty wide and really be able to force force the box to be a little bit condensed and a little bit more running lanes. And also they have a better quarterback. So I think there's there's a little bit of that. And if Marcel Reed can throw the football, that may open it up a little bit better. And I'm not saying Aaron Philo can't, but identity for Florida was running the football. And when you're kind of get contained and are forced to throw the football, that's not a spot that they like to be in. but for me, for me man, like Missouri, they look Amazing last week. I would I kind of going into this, I was thinking this could maybe be a little potential letdown spot for them after just a huge week last week, noon kick, kind of like you said. But drink, drink came out in a press conference yesterday. They have a 18-year-old freshman offensive lineman who joined the team in the summer, had had some like health implications of just kind of some red flags. And they were talking about he was talking about yesterday how he got added to the the heart transplant list. at eighteen and and definitely praying for him and his family. But Drink was kinda getting emotional. And I think when you have a team that is already very well bought in together and you have something like that that happens to to one of your former brothers, I think I think you you play your season for a for a higher meaning and kind of a different meaning to be able to to back your brother and be able to just provide the season. Not specifically for him, but as a team, there's that's just something that's I think is a great rallying point that you see for a lot of teams. And I think for me there's just something special about this Missouri team this year. And I I think at home against AM who's who's struggled a lot, I think they get it done. And and as as Drinkwitz ends any of his post game conferences or press game or pregame conferences, whatever it may be, I Z. So I'm rolling with the Tigers. Mitch: Yeah, no, I'm with you. And their run game, by the way, is no slouch. These these two teams are averaging right at one sixty seven, one sixty-eight run yards per game. both of them are. So I think it'll be pretty interesting. I will say one thing about Texas AM, a player people need to be aware of that they may not be. David Alano, kicker for Texas A and Is seven for seven on field goals so far this year. He's a transfer from TCU. And this past week against Arkansas, he hit from fifty-one and fifty-seven. Just nails. So he's been very good. So if this does end up being a tight game coming down to some some key kicking situations, that's just something to be aware of as well. Sam: Yeah. Yeah. You may you may need to get his jersey hung up behind you. Mitch: Yeah, I've gotten that comment a time or two. but me and Randy are boys, so that jersey's going nowhere. It's going nowhere. Randy, you're safe. Sam: No, it it no, Ran Randy's the all time leading kicker in A and history point wise, so he he's a Mitch: Yeah. Sam: legend. He deserves to be on the wall. But you got somebody that makes it Mitch: That's what maybe I just need to get both. Sam: Yeah, if he gets if he has a big kick this weekend, you maybe you need to commit to buying his jersey or something. Mitch: Yeah, I like it. I like maybe I'll get a David Alano card. Sam: Yeah, yeah, that would be cool. Well, I I'll tell you whose jersey I'm never gonna buy. That's John Mateer. Mitch: That's brutal. Sam: I man, I I just to being honest, Oklahoma plays Mitch: That's brutal. Sam: against Texas, Red River shootout. this game's at 330. Texas is currently sitting as an eight and a half point favorite. this is a battle of two excellent defenses and one mediocre offense and one just really rough offense. So this is a game that I think is gonna be ugly. And who would have thought, sitting at this point in the year, this is how we would be talking about this game? This was one of these games that was circled before the season even started of hey, this is gonna be an amazing matchup. Like Oklahoma may come in one loss from Georgia or undefeated. Texas obviously is coming in undefeated, so they've done their part, but this this game is gonna be ugly. This game is gonna be a slug fest. I think. These are probably two of the premier defenses in all of college football. But for me, man, there is just no way Texas doesn't walk out of here with a win. Maybe I'm digging myself into a corner, but there if if if Oklahoma hasn't been able to move the football on Georgia, on Michigan, on New Mexico, on UTEP, like who all you could list their entire schedule. You can't tell me they're gonna come in here and be able to figure things out against Texas. Mitch: Yeah, defensively, I mean, this is the straw that Oklahoma's been clinging to for the past two years is their defense. Their defense is still elite. They're top three in opponent adjusted efficiency per play. Like they're just an elite defense, unfortunately, paired with one of the worst offenses I've ever seen. I think a key stat here, John Mateer's been pressured forty-five times. I think for any quarterback. To be pressured 45 times, that's tough. And you pair it with a guy who's kind of mentally struggling, doesn't seem to be completely himself, or maybe this just is himself. I don't know what's going on with Matir. Either way, the quarterback, the product that we're getting on the field, not good. I mean, last time I saw him, he was just dropping the football against Georgia multiple times, just dropping it. Like some of those fumbles weren't even forced. Ball was just slipping out of his hand. So I think Forty five pressures, a guy who is being really insecure with the football going up against a Texas front that has Colin Simmons. I think this is bad news, Bears, for the Oklahoma Sooners. And while I don't have a ton of confidence in the Texas offense either, and I do think this is going to be a challenge for them. I think this might be the best defense that they've played this year. I think you could make that argument. Tennessee's defense is incredible. Ohio State has a great defense as well, but you could make the argument this is the best defense that they've played, led by Venables, but I just I don't know. I I don't think that Oklahoma's got enough juice, even if their defense is trying their best to keep in the game. I don't think their offense is gonna score. I think Matthew's gonna turn the ball over a couple of times, probably some bad ones, momentum swings. I think Texas wins this game. I think Texas probably covers that eight and a half. Sam: Yeah, I don't know if this is something you can do in this game if you're Oklahoma, but for me, I'm wondering when they're gonna sit there and say, Okay, put the money aside. We need to we need to make a change of quarterback. Mitch: I'm just not sure how much of a first of all, if they haven't done it yet, there may be a reason. And second of all, I'm not sure how much of a difference it'd make. Their offensive line is not good. Sam: Yeah, but man, y I mean, he just is not playing efficient. Like he's Mitch: Yeah. Sam: he's just sloppy, he's way slow in his progressions, like he's not giving he's not doing himself any favors. You can have a bad offensive line, but if you can play quarterback, like there are ways that you can kind of move move things around to kind of get the ball out quick, get stuff to the outside, whether it's a quick game, there there's ways for them to be able to adjust to that. And I just I don't think there's any trust they have right now in Mateira. Mitch: Yeah. the spread did open at nine and a half. It's gone down to eight and a half. So apparently there are some Oklahoma believers out here. I don't know who you guys are. But there are some Oklahoma believers out there. So just want to throw that out. And we always love a good rivalry game. Red River shootout. I mean, it doesn't get much better than that. Call Inspires, shout out to you for going to this game. Not a huge Texas fan, but you better be repping your callers. I know you're going with a group of OU fans. So good luck to you this weekend. But yeah, have fun at the state fair. Have fun at the Cotton Bowl. Enjoy yourself. Hopefully, you can walk out with a win because Sam and I are both taking a long time. Yeah. Sam: That's right. And now, honestly, a a great matchup. I hear the CBS theme song playing in my head. This is the UCLA Bruins versus the Oregon Ducks. Oregon is currently an 11 and a half point favorite. shout out Bob Chesney. He has got UCLA playing really good football. I mean, for think about how bad UCLA was last year, all the adversity, and for them to even just start out undefeated at this point and really win the games. that last year were we're not necessarily givens is a huge deal for that program. got a shout out, shout out my boy, my boy Chandler. He's he's on staff down there at JM's Madison. And he's we were kind of talking texting the other day. And his two staffs that he's been a part of have been Kirk Signetti and his whole staff that's now in Indiana, who's great. And he's been with Bob Chesney, who is now at UCLA, who's looking like he's going to be great out there. So the James Madison coaching coaching line is just proving proving to be the place you need to go make a make a hire to if you're if you're a team looking for a new head coach. Billy Napier's a different story coming up, but maybe he maybe he's able to figure some things out. but UCL UCLA for me, I think they're much improved this season. I think they are going to continue to grow into a much better football team. I think Bob Chesney's the guy, but you look at the just talent difference between these two teams. It is just night and day. Oregon has too much offensively and defensively. I think Riola having a week to really get settled in as a starting quarterback, get his whole for first team reps, be the guy is huge for them. I th I think Oregon wins this game. I th I think it's close for a little bit, maybe in the first half, but I think it's gonna come down to Oregon been here, done that before, a little bit more established in in the Big Ten. I I think the Ducks are gonna run. Mitch: Yeah, and on the Dante Moore thing, I mean, it's a head injury. You never want to mess around with that type of thing, but he was reportedly seen it practice yesterday. So interesting development is his status. I don't know if he'll be and if you're Oregon, I don't think you also have to rush him back, which is good because you have Ryola in that chair. So I don't expect Dante Moore to play this weekend, but he did practice yesterday in some capacity. So that's something to monitor. man I gotta be honest with you. UCLA looks like a really good football team. They're running, like their run game, they're averaging 281 yards a game Sam: Yeah. Mitch: on the ground. That's pretty impressive. Nico hasn't been quite as impressive through the air, but I mean if you're getting 280 on the ground, that's that that'll open up any offense. So I just think they've looked really good. And Oregon's run defense at times has struggled this year. So if you're a Ducks fan, that could be a little bit of a concern. But like you said, Sam, they have so much talent. They seem like they're rallying together. They're still kind of in desperation mode, Oregon is, because they had high, high aspirations for the season. It didn't get started right off the bat the way they want it to. I'm sure that Oklahoma State loss is still fresh in everyone's mind. But when you pair it with the confidence boost they got at USC before that bye week. I just think they carry that forward. I think especially since this is at home in Eugene, I think they get this one done. Sam: Yeah. Yeah, I agree. And I I love that you touched on UCLA being able to run the football. Dan Lanning's smart. He knows that. I think he's gonna load the box. And for me, I would be excited to see as a UCLA fan, okay, if we're forced to throw the football, what does it look like for Nico? How has he developed as a passer to where, hey, you have to go win this game for us? He's gonna be the difference maker. So even I I think that's that could be a good good teller for honestly the way they can kind of compete in these big time games is if if there's a really good balance between quarterback play and running game, that that could make UCLA pretty dangerous, but I need to see it first. Mitch: Yeah, I agree with you. I agree with you. So that'll be a fun one to watch at 330. We've also got at 330 a pretty big, big twelve matchup. Very interesting dynamics in this game. Houston versus Kansas State. This is in Manhattan at Kansas State. And Colin Klein, by the way, head coach at K-State, former offensive coordinator for Connor Wigman, the quarterback at Houston. Very interesting dynamic here. Some fun stories. I I think both of these teams really need to win. I think Houston needs to to prove to the country that they can play four quarters of quality football. And I think from a Kansas State side, you've seen some things you really like. You lost to Cincinnati. Cincinnati might be a good football team, but I I think you wanna come out strong this week at home. A ranked win would be huge for that program with Klein in his first year. I I really like what I've seen from Connor Wigman and the Cougars offensively this year. They have the number one third down conversion rate in the entire country. They have the number 12 run run game in the entire country. My issue with them is ball security. They haven't been able to turn or take care of the ball very well. They've gotten into a lot of situations, not just last week, but throughout the season, the Texas Tech game as well, where they just can't finish drives, whether it's turnovers or they, you know, get stopped closer to the the red area of the field. I I just I think they're gonna need to put four quarters together. They don't need to dig themselves into a hole on the road at Kansas State this week. And I think if they're able to do that, they're gonna get this one done. Kansas State's run game, by the way. Very good. And Houston's run defense at times has been a little bit suspect as well. I think Texas Tech ran the ball really well on Houston. UCF even got the run game going pretty well last week. So there's a lot of potential for this one to be very interesting, but I am gonna roll with Wigman and the Houston Cougars to get it done on the road. I have a a slight feeling Sam might have a different lean on this game. Sam: Well, that slight feeling you have is really correct. 'Cause I'm going with Kansas State in this one, man. I think for me, Houston defensively they've looked pretty good this year. Offensively, man, like you said, just incredibly slow starts. For me, I kind of look at it as a little bit more sluggish. Like they should be much better than what they are. And they just have not been able to put it together for me enough to say I think they're I mean, I didn't I don't I didn't have them ranked in my my top twenty-five poll. I think they're a little bit overrated. Big twelve standards. I think I I j I'm just not sold on Houston. And then this is Kansas State. This is their first year head coach, Colin Klein. He's done a great job of kind of getting Avery Johnson comfortable a quarterback. I mean, you guys gotta remember, Avery Johnson was the guy who came in at Kansas State who pretty much kicked Will Howard out of the program just because they thought his talent was so good. And Will Howard. Will Howard was a great quarterback at Kansas State, but he obviously turned into the starting quarterback for the Buckeyes who went on to win the national championship. But the potential has always been there for Kansas State quarterback play to really kind of turn into something really special. And I think when you have Colin Klein there now, kind of being able to mentor s mentor Avery Johnson and Klein's done it at the highest level, Heisman finalist, I think that's a match made in heaven for those two. I think Kansas State lost to a good Cincinnati team. on the road. Kansas State at home, first big time game in the Colin Klein era. I'm bought into him. I think he's a great coach. I think he's gonna be able to turn his alma mater around and he gets his first rank statement win on Saturday. So give me the Wildcats. Mitch: Yeah. Yeah, I I like that pick. I like Colin Klein a lot and the creativity that he's got from an offensive perspective paired with Avery Johnson, a guy who can do it with his arm. He can do it on the ground. I think it's a little bit of a scary thing for the Big Twelve and those defensive coordinators to have to deal with that. Kansas State is the favorite in this game. They're favored by Sam: Yeah. Mitch: two and a half at home, so that's pretty much home field advantage getting baked into that. So really a pick game. but I am still gonna roll with Houston, man. I just I like what I've seen and the run defense hasn't looked great at times, but they're still averaging giving up less than a hundred run yards per game. So and their their offense is is getting two thirty plus on the ground. So I I don't know. I I just I like what I'm seeing and and honestly from my perspective the Houston offense has looked good. So I think it's interesting we have a little bit of a different take on the Houston offense. But I think Wigman's been efficient. I think their run game has been efficient. And I I think if they can keep that going, they can contend in this conference. Sam: Yeah, for me, man man, they they just leave so much on the table. Like when they are on, they are really good. But you look back at that Texas tech game, you look at back at UCF last week, while they got the win, just that they could be so much better. And I think until they put that together for me in a spot like this against Kansas State, it it's hard for me to to go with them. Maybe maybe I'm proved wrong and Houston comes back and wins or maybe they use me in their hype video, whatever it may be. But Just need need to need to see it first. Mitch: No, I agree with you. That's why I say they need to prove to us they can put four four good quarters of football together. But I'm just gonna lean on the side that they do that this week. Sam: Yeah. Mitch: We've got we've got another big one. This one's in the SEC. Kentucky is hosting the LSU Tigers. This one's very interesting. I'm not sure what my take on it is just yet. I need to digest a little bit with my thoughts. So, Sam, I'm gonna let you kick us off with your analysis on this game. Sam: Yeah, man, this game is fascinating to me. this game's at home for Kentucky. They are coming off the high of a win against South Carolina. Will Stein has been incredibly impressive to me. while while we we kind of talk back and forth about what is AM right now, you still go into Kyle Field your first year and get a win the way that you did. That's impressive. This is his this is his team, this is his dream job. I think he was the right guy. on the other hand, LSU we'll be interested to see how Sam Levitt is. I think he's playing this Saturday, but still just very injury prone. Struggled, struggled, what was it, two weeks ago against AM. I don't know. I don't know how much he played against McNeese State, to be honest. I'm sure they were able to bench him pretty early, but you still are without your two sevens with Clark the tight end and Weeks the linebacker. Kentucky. Kentucky's playing really football right now. I get South Carolina's not the best team in the SEC, but they have some really good talent on that team that just hasn't really been put all together. this game was super hard for me to pick. Everything in me wanted to pick Kentucky to be that spot where they get a big home field win. first ranked win on at home for Will Stein. But I I I just can't do it. I'm not I'm not there yet necessarily on LSU, but I think LSU has just enough to be able to go into Lexington and Kentucky and get this win. I think this game's gonna be a lot closer. I think this is gonna come down the wire, but there's a little bit more trust in just the roster and the the talent and just just the players honestly for LSU, just 'cause they've that they've been in this position a little bit more frequently. Mitch: Yeah, I think there's honestly one thing that's gonna determine this game, and it's can Kentucky establish the run? Because Sam: Yeah. Mitch: Kentucky, I don't know if you know this, they're bottom two in all of FBS in third and fourth down conversion rate right now. Bottom two. But They're fourth in rush efficiency. So I think if they can establish the run on those early downs and prevent themselves from a third and long situation against this LSU defense, they can keep themselves in this game at home and they can score points. I just think if they can establish that run game and they find themselves in a lot of third and longs, doesn't bode well right now for that offense. and honestly, if you look at paper, like I I think mentally this game is a lot closer than paper makes it appear. Statistically, LSU should walk in Lexington and dominate this game. I don't see that happening. I think can there's a lot more to it than just box score and statistics and all these things. I think Will Stein knows what he's doing. I think they're going to be prepared for this LSU team. I think they're going to be like they have a lot of momentum. They're carrying off of that huge road wind and overtime at South Carolina. So I think Kentucky's going to put up a good fight in this game. I think Levitt honestly makes a lot of plays with his legs this week. As long as we get a healthy or close to healthy Sam Levitt this week. I think he can make some plays with his legs. And I think LSU takes this one. I think LSU probably covers the spread. I didn't have to say that, Sam: Mm. Mitch: but I think they probably do. Sam: Yeah. I I think this will be a really good matchup for both teams, just as LSU LSU kind of gets in the heat of the SEC play. Same with Kentucky. Like just big matchup for them to both be able to see where they're at, kind of at this midpoint in the season. But I hope it's a great game. Mitch: Mm-hmm. Sam: I think it will be, but just a great week six SEC matchup. Mitch: Yeah, absolutely. This one right here, this is the big one this weekend. We always look forward to this. It's an annual occurrence at this point. I mean, Kirby Kirby got the last one in Atlanta. But he's had some struggles in the regular season with this Alabama team. We got Georgia going to Alabama. And I'll put a question mark at the end of that. Because there have been some talks about potentially moving this game with a hurricane and a storm forming in the Gulf. It's looking like it's headed straight at Tuscaloosa. So Hopefully the weather doesn't pan out to be as bad as we think it is. It could be a huge factor this weekend if they play the game. And if they move the game, that'll be very interesting too. I'm just hoping this game gets played because I want to see it. I want to see these two teams go at each other on the field this weekend. I couldn't be more excited about this matchup, to be completely honest with you. Keelan Russell has looked so good. This is a huge test. The Bama offense has been so efficient. They've been so good. They look better and better every week. And defensively, they look like a great football team as well. Well, but you run it up against the Bulldogs, who defensively look very put together too. They didn't look all there maybe against Vanderbilt. I think this is like this is the week both of these teams are gonna be fully dialed in. They're gonna they're Sam: Yeah. Mitch: gonna both throw punches. They're gonna be throwing right hook, left hook. I I just I can't wait to see what this looks like, to be completely honest with you. I I'm not gonna make my pick yet. I need you to talk about this game, Sam. Sam: Yeah, I mean you you're pretty spot on with everything you said. I think the matchup here is Alabama's offense versus Georgia's defense. I think Georgia's offense has looked really good and and I I think they're gonna put up points. Gunnar Stockton looks much improved from last year. I don't think he gets enough credit in the SEC. Like he's not this super flashy like Keelan Russia Russell, Camario Taylor. Trinidad Chambliss, like those kind of guys, but man, like he can make some throws when he needs to. Like there's a reason he's the starting quarterback at Georgia. I mean, he has full command of that locker room and that team. But for me, it's this is this is the toughest test for Keelan Russell on that offense against this Georgia defense. I mean, there's not a there's not a better defensive mind than Kirby Smart and Glen Glenn Schumann, who's a defensive coordinator, is really good. I think they're gonna there's gonna be some points scored in this game. I think the key is gonna be if Alabama can run the football. I think if if Georgia has a great front seven and if they can force Keelan Russell to throw the football all game, which he's very capable of doing, but I think if Alabama doesn't have a balanced attack, that could prove to kind of be a point. And Georgia for me, I th they have to establish the run. Gunnar Stockton will get comfortable. He loves being in those environments. He kind of thrives on that. This is this is this is the game of the year so far, I think. And I think it'll it'll prove to be that on Saturday. I mean, I I don't know how you can't get excited about a top five matchup like this and the monkey on Kirby Smart's back of beating Alabama in the regular season. So am I and can I do my pick and then I'll circ circle it back to you, or are we kinda like trying to wait for some Mitch: Yeah man. Give me all the time in the world. Give me all the time. Sam: Okay. Yeah, so so for me, I it's gonna be hard to pick against Alabama at home in Bryant Denny with that environment, but I think Georgia gets it done on the road. Kirby Smart gets the monkey off his back of beating Alabama in the regular season. I think he proves that this is his best Georgia team that he's had in a while. And I I I think they kind of let the college football world know, hey, this is this is your different Georgia that's gonna be here to last or in the playoffs too. So I I gotta go the Georgia Bulldogs. Mitch: I love your thought process. I love your analysis. I think this is a game where the best quarterback on the field wins. Sam: Hm. Okay. Well I know where you're going. Mitch: I I think this is a game where the best quarterback on the field wins. If it if I just remove all the other variables, I think these teams are very comparable. I really do. I think defensively, Georgia is stout. Alabama's look great, specifically second half too. I think it says a lot about a team, how you respond at halftime, how you come out. They're giving up like six points a game in the second half this season. And we saw them lock in against Kentucky in the second half. We saw them lock in for four quarters against Mississippi State this past week on the road. I just think they're carrying a ton of momentum in. I think Russell's getting more and more confident every week. It's a huge test, though, for him going up against that defense. Georgia, they're gonna throw everything they've got at him. But I think that at this point schematically, Keelan's had a lot of teams throw some stuff at him. I think he's been tested a little bit. It's not like this Georgia defense though. This Georgia defense is for real. It can cause a quarterback to go into full mental breakdown mode, which we've seen recently with John Mateer. However, he seems to be in full re or full mental breakdown mode regardless of who he's playing. Now I just I don't know. I'm not confident in it. Babama's at home. I'm assuming they're at home if they play this game in Tuscaloosa. I I just think they get it done. I also think their run game looks really good. Like, I Sam: Yeah. Mitch: think if this ends up being a really, really bad weather game, I still think this game's super even. I think Georgia can run the ball as well. I think they're really even in the trenches. Like this one truly is to me. It doesn't get more pick'em than this week. But to me, from the eye test, I think Alabama has been the most impressive team in the SEC. You could argue the most impressive team in college football to this point in the season. And that's why I'm gonna roll with the tie. Sam: Yeah, I mean that's a great pick. I mean you you can't go wrong with this game and who you pick. Mitch: No. Sam: Like it's to me, it's a complete toss-up. I mean, the one and a half point spread favoring Alabama, that is quite literally home field, and that's it. Like if you have this game played in Atlanta for an SEC, like this is a total pick'em. but man, am I excited to watch this football game on Saturday night. Mitch: Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. We've got those are our eight that we're picking for this week. So our picks are locked in. We've got a couple honorable mentioned games that we want to talk about. Games that are going to be very intriguing. We touched on UTSA, USF a little bit in the pick seven. That's going to be a big one. Hopefully, for Sam's case, USF can keep that game close. But if you haven't got a chance to watch this UTSA offense, Don McCown, I think it's one you're going to want to tune into. They can be pretty fun to watch. Florida State is playing Louisville this week. Florida State, I don't know if you know this. They're coming off a pretty massive win. Sam: Huge. Mitch: Like almost embarrassing level win, moment of silence level, if you watch our episode on Sunday. Sam: Yeah. Mitch: Ashton Daniels rushed for five touchdowns this past weekend. Five. Quarterback, Ashton Daniels. I mean, that's crazy. And Louisville, man, where where do you how do you feel if you're a Louisville fan right now, Sam? Sam: Yeah, I mean you come on off the high of competing against Ole Miss. you have a a a big win the following week, and then it's just a loss to Virginia, a loss to I'm sorry, not Virginia. Wake Forest. Who'd they lose to last week? I'm blanking on it. Mitch: Novo NC State. Sam: Yeah, NC NC State, that's right. like you think you're ACC contender, and then you drop two two games in the matter of three weeks. man, think about this for Florida State though. Is is this it for Mike Norvell? Like, is is is he kind of turning it around to where he kind of locks in another year? I don't know, but they looked really good against Virginia the other night. This is a this is on Friday night, so this this could be a very, very interesting game to just kind of see of Two polar opposites of Louisville started the season really well and it's kind of declining. And Florida State started off rough and it's maybe looks like hitting their stride a little bit. and then the the last honorable mention is another Friday night game. All three of these games that we're talking about are before Saturday. So UTSA USF's Thursday, and then Florida State Louisville's Friday, and then the last game, Iowa versus Washington, is Friday night as well. two teams coming off losses. Iowa was obviously to Ohio State, Washington to USC. I think could be just a interesting game in regards to Big Ten standings. Damon Williams just doesn't have any help for Washington offensively. And how does Iowa respond after that loss against Ohio State? Mitch: Yeah, man, Washington, if you need a get right spot for your offense, which they do, Iowa's not the place to get a offense right. So Sam: No. Mitch: that one'll be interesting though, 'cause I mean both of those teams need a win and if they get a win, they are still relevant in that Big Ten discussion for sure, especially Iowa. So I don't think Iowa's anything to really complain about at this point in the year. I I think they played decently well against Ohio State. They kept that one from getting really, really out of hand. But Yeah, man. Washington's offense has looked sluggish. And they still almost pulled it out against USC, but it's looked really sluggish. So that's that's an interesting one to keep an eye on. Sam: Yeah, definitely. And as just to kind of circle back on those eight games that Mitch and I went through and picked, we have our wives' picks for this game. So just kind of want to be able to relay those to you guys real quick. So my wife, Cameron, she picked BYU to beat Iowa State, Indiana to beat Nebraska, Missouri to beat beat Texas AM, Texas to beat Oklahoma, Oregon to beat UCLA, Houston to beat Kansas State, LSU to beat Kentucky. She picked Alabama to be Georgia. Mitch: She did. And Keaton submitted her pick. Shout out birthday girl Keaton. BYU is her first pick. She took Indiana over Nebraska, Missouri over AM. Ouch. That hurts. Sam: Yeah, that has to that hurts. Mitch: But she she's an Arkansas fan. and so she's a little salty about the Aggies right now. Also, that's probably a smart pick. So, anyways, Missouri over AM, Texas over Oklahoma, she's got Oregon, she's got Houston, she's got LSU, and she took Georgia. She took the Bulldogs in that game. So Keaton and I have a couple that are different. I think our only ones that are flipped are the Georgia pick, because I picked Bama and then I picked AM over Missouri. Sam: Yeah. Yeah, I need I need Georgia and Kansas State to win this week for me. Just just so I can be ahead of the standings and get a little bit closer to her. I think she's only a game ahead of me, but from a week to week record wise, she's she's been pretty consistent. So I need a big week for my eight. Mitch: Yeah, definitely. All right. It's time for the Honey It's in the Budget. Lock of the Week. Just to do a recap, we've done this for two weeks. I'm one in one. Sam is also one in one. Honey, it's in the budget. What is your lock of the week this week, Sam? You gotta pick Vegas odds, one game, something that you're just really confident in. And again, we don't give betting advice on this podcast. So You can't come running to us, you know, crying and complaining. Like, be responsible with your stuff. But what's your lock of the week? Sam: Yeah, last night I was sitting in bed, Cameron was watching Dancing with the Stars, and we were talking about our picks. And she Mitch: Shout out, hey, by the way, just to throw this in here, I'm glad you brought up Dancing with the Stars. Last night was a pretty electric night. Like, just Sam: Yeah. Mitch: from my perspective, dude, the quality of dances skyrocketed last night. And my boy, my boy Guillermo, like, loved that guy. But dude, after the dancing that we saw last night from so many couples, I can't believe he stuck around. I mean, Sam: No. Mitch: I think America, like, we need to do better. I I love Guillermo, but you don't have to keep him there for the sympathy votes. Like, dude got thirteen points last night. He was last placed by six points from the judges, and you kept him around. What are we doing? Anyways. Yeah. Sam: Yeah. And the person that went home had all sevens, like, there there needs to be there's needs to be a change to that to that system, but level of competition is at an all-time high. Yeah. Yeah. That's right. Mitch: It yeah, what are we doing? It's like it's like the College Football Playoff Committee. It's like the playoff committee. All right, Sam, you're up. Sorry. Sam: But no, you're good. We're I I love the Nantle with the Stars topic. but we're sitting there watching and we're going through our picks and she's like, Hey, like, who are you thinking for this week? And the one that I was stuck on that I was couldn't continue to go back and forth on was I was really close to picking Kentucky to win outright. I believe in that team. I believe in that squad. I ended up picking LSU obviously, but eight and a half is a lot of points at home. So I'm picking Kentucky plus eight and a half to cover. Mitch: I'm I'm glad that you feel confident in that. That's really funny because I almost picked LSU minus eight and a half as my lock of the week. That was my number two option. That would have been hilarious. Sam: That would have been funny. I I Kentucky was my Kentucky was my pick last week. I I believe in so I I'm rocking with the Wildcats. They did. So returning the favor Mitch: Yeah, they did you right last week. Yeah, that's good. Sam: and getting more confidence in Mitch: All right, I'm taking my lock of the week to the ACC. I'm taking it Sam: Mm. Mitch: to a team that's a little bit under the radar still, but is four-no and looks really good. And they're running up against a team that is just not clicking at all. They had some coordinator turnover, they had some roster turnover, and they're not clicking at all. And that's Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets do not look good. The Duke Blue Devils are the four-o team that I'm talking about. They're getting some ranked conversation. They got votes this week for the first time. They're favored by seven against Georgia Tech. It's in Atlanta. It's 330. I just don't see anything in the Yellow Jackets that makes me confident they can slow down this Duke offense. I think Duke covers that spread. So I'm going to take Duke minus seven as my lock of week. Sam: Yeah. That is a great pick. I I Mitch: And seven points, I mean, that's a whole touchdown, but I just I don't see anything from Georgia Tech right now that I would say is gonna slow them down. Sam: No, they haven't done anything. So I'm honestly a little bit jealous I didn't see that game when I was going through it, 'cause that's that's a heck of a pick. Mitch: That's okay. That's okay. And knowing me, Georgia Tech's gonna have their breakout game this week and it won't even matter, so Sam: Yeah. Yeah, they they go undefeated the rest of the regular season. Mitch: That's right. That's right. Well, thank you guys so much for joining the podcast, for listening. Again, we appreciate y'all so much. Continue to hit us up on social media. We've got all the platforms. We've got X, Instagram, TikTok. We do a mailbag at the end of most of our shows. So odds are if you send us something that's quality content, we will discuss it on this show. Sam, do you have any mailbags for us this morning? Sam: We're talking about mailbag and I just started laughing, thinking about Tyler who told us DJ Lagway looked like Fright the Turtle. And it's crazy. That that it that image the Mitch: It really does though. It really does. Like I was looking up I was looking up pictures afterwards, man. It it's kinda uncanny, unfortunately. Sam: Yeah, it is. But Mitch: Yeah. Sam: from from a mailbag perspective, I I don't have any right now. I think with the the time change for me I didn't get a chance to get some feedback. So Chad, I apologize for that. Mitch: Yeah, I did get some the only mailbag I got after our recap episode was some slander from a couple Baylor friends because I did neglect to mention the Baylor Arizona State game. Baylor, looking really good. Sneaky. They're sitting right outside the Honey at Saturday top twenty-five poll right now. So tune in next week. We'll see if that changes. but yeah, the Bears are rolling. We really appreciate you guys again. You guys mean everything. Hit us up on all the platforms. We'll be back with a recap show this weekend. Please enjoy it. This one's going to be fun. I'm hoping and praying that the weather stays away and allows everything to occur because we just need to see it all play out this week. It's exciting. We're officially, I mean, this is week six in the fall. Let's let's get it going. Sam: Yeah, that's right. Take advantage of it. A great week of college football. And I I I can't help but not look into next week. Like I I'm fully present in this week, but man, some of the matchups the following week, holy smokes. Like we are getting into the juice of the college football season and I love it. Mitch: That's what happens when your team plays Arkansas. You look ahead to the next week. Tennessee's got Arkansas this week, so Sam's like, what do we got going next week? Sam: Hey man, but like Virginia Tech plays Cal, that's a big game for me. US F plays I got a l bunch of other teams that got some big games this week. Mitch: You know, Tennessee's only favor by thirteen and a half. That seems Sam: Slow low. Mitch: like a very low number to me. Sam: Yeah, I think it has to do with the quarterback situation. Mitch: it definitely does. But yeah, I don't we'll we'll see. That's a it's a get right spot, so hopefully that offense gets right. Sam: Yeah. Well again, thank you guys all for tuning in today. again, we're always open to feedback. Any mailbag, please continue to be able to provide those. make sure you're following us on the socials and we hope you guys have a great rest of the week and we'll see you guys here soon. Mitch: Honey, it's Saturday out.