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F1 Monaco GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: Welcome to the Apex Insiders, Monaco GP. Betting preview. I got my boy Alan, aka F1 Tipster. He is back. AK Renegade Gambler, AK Insert Alias here. We're a little late. I know it's Thursday. We got a lot of action here. ⁓ and I also got my co-host, you probably can see down here. ⁓ she's staring at me because because she wants her food. Anyways, you can wait. Darksideday: Okay, Remguide. @f1capper: Food because we gotta get fed for free money Friday. So that's what we're here for. That's what we're gonna try to do. Also, we got the IndyCar ⁓ podcast as well. That's gonna be coming out probably later tonight as well. So we gotta blast some some podcasts. Yeah, we got a lot, a lot of delays, a lot of lot of different things happening. But ⁓ yeah, it's Monaco GP. We are here, it's the summer. This is my first ⁓ Darksideday: Bye bye. @f1capper: I gotta get up early. I gotta set my alarm. Actually, she's gonna set my alarm because she'll probably have me up anyways to to feed her. 6 30 a.m. We start the summer calendar. It actually officially begins. So ⁓ just briefly thinking about, you know, let's reflect on the first three months of the season or lack thereof, because there wasn't really much happening for for a majority of it. But one thing I want want to just kind of quickly point out that it's going to be interesting to see is now that we are getting into the summer schedule, we were in Canada, we saw much cooler temperatures. ⁓ tire impacts, right? So temperatures are gonna impact. Well, now we're getting into s summer calendar. We should start seeing warmer temps. ⁓ it's gonna be interesting to see how some of these cars are gonna be be reacting now that we're getting into the thick of the summer. So That being said, let me get to just some some key things to think about as we're going into the weekend. So I did already ⁓ talk about this in our in our chat, ⁓ premium chat, I should say. So joined the paddock pass. Just gotta throw that in there. ⁓ one of the things is is some of the teams in in FP1, they they like to not use their softs. I mean, last year I think majority did use them, but I think we saw like two or three teams. But what you see normally you know, through the years is even we've se I've think there was one year where no one used ⁓ any sauce because they were just saving that because qualifying is is such a critical piece to the to the entire thing for the for Monaco. Race doesn't matter. it's just gonna be just a DRS or no more DRS, but a train basically that you're gonna be stuck behind. So be careful, be cautious. You can see volatility, even not just FP one, but through all FP sessions, because you know someone's gonna hit the wall, you might have Red flag times going down, things get interrupted, and traffic. So what I'm getting to is be careful when you're taking chalk because sometimes that may not work out in your favor, but it could. That and ⁓ I think a lot of the you know, FP1, it's a lot of playing around with your downforce levels. It's it's gonna be take that FP1 and really learn. Like what can my car do? It's gonna be a one-stop race, so. Tire deg is going to be something they're gonna obviously want to pay attention to, but I think it's all about ⁓ more about optimizing to make sure, like, can I actually get myself in position for qualifying and just making sure I also have the right balance for the race? ⁓ you obviously don't want to have a big dip from qualifying straight into the race. ⁓ so yeah, this is a I mean, again, low speed grip, balance management is kind of what this whole track is about. It's one of the slowest on the track ⁓ or on the calendar. So it it's all about low speed, right? S it's basically how do I get my car to spec in terms of getting this thing turned, get traction, get in a lot of this track is also about driver confidence. So a lot of it's gonna be about who has the skill to you know, who has experience. So we've already talked at length about LeClaire, Hamilton, stuff. So we got a lot of young guys on here. How are they gonna perform? ⁓ You know, so that's gonna be like some some of the big things. So sessions again can get interrupted pretty drastically in the FP sessions. ⁓ energy management is kind of a thing here. It might, I don't know how much it actually impacts. So this is gonna be the first time where we kind of get a real feel of driver skill more than anything. ⁓ not so much energy management. one of the key things that it did. want to bring up was about turgo turbo lag speed here, in which we don't tr we know about the lag in some of these PUs, but how is it actually gonna impact on some of these teams coming in this weekend? ⁓ that means because you know energy management isn't going to be the key critical component for this track. So it's a matter of paying attention like who's actually gaining the speed out of the corners. Because you can see that through telemetry. Like, are they actually getting up to speed once they've got their foot on the throttle? so I can keep going. Anyways, you everyone knows Monaco is all about qualifying. That's the most fun part for us as betters. The best and most boring part is the race because we know we can chalk. I still think there's gonna be some things though, which is one getting off the start, you just pray. That you got the right right guy that starts fine and just continues to stick his position. But that's where and Audi's. So that's like we're just kind of hoping like that's where you take the chalk. That's where we want to take the chalk. So, anyways, let's get let's get right into it. So I you know, I do have a free Money Friday play, which I talked about way early, like last week when MGM started posting lines. Darksideday: Just not came the Antoni there, you just don't want came the Antoni there. Let's it, come on, let's give it, let's give it, wherever you go. @f1capper: Ghastly over Ocon. So the price has changed though. But it was minus 120, Ghastly over Ocon. I I hate to say this because I think everyone knows this. Everyone is kind of on board with this. No, he's ⁓ not Ocon. ⁓ but I just think the my mind can't stop gravitating to Albean. And it's only just because they have been clearly the best midfield team. They have, you know. Darksideday: Boy is he washed, is he washed. @f1capper: spec to the Mercedes engine, right? Everything is working to their favor. And technically speaking, slow corners kind of favor the car a little bit more than some of the other. So I'm like, man, am I in my head, am I overhyping it? In my head, am I overhyping it? Or am I setting myself up for a disappointment? Because it's almost to the point where I can my mind is like, man, you might, you could maybe he sneaks into the top five and we're just like, whoa. That that's legit. And we can attack the odds, but at the same time, I don't want to feel silly in that I'm like, yeah, yeah, he's gonna he could be a top six guy and then all of a sudden he's just sitting there in P ten, P eleven and can't get by anyone. So I don't know. What do you think? What do you think about my the hype that I have in my head? Darksideday: for helping for gasoline for gasoline i don't know you never know @f1capper: I mean he's he's he's pretty good. I mean he's he's been generally pretty solid around this track. ⁓ Darksideday: What was the current price? @f1capper: top six let me let me let me see I think it was like eight to one seven to one let's see what qual ⁓ actually I should I should clarify this should be for qu I I think I want to do this well I mean I could do it for both but let's let's do qualifying since that is a big focus Darksideday: Is that for the race or for FP1? @f1capper: Top six qualifying on bet three sixty five, he is seven to one. Darksideday: ⁓ Why not? I don't think that's a good price to be honest. @f1capper: Right? Like I feel like if you're giving if it's a ha Isaac Hajar is plus three fifty, I think that he's obviously put himself in a position where he can be in that. And then for the race, let's see, for the race, top six finish. See, he's plus three fifty. So to me, it's like, why wouldn't you take the qualifying seven to one? Darksideday: Sprinkle. @f1capper: 'Cause he has to qualify in that position anyways. Maybe he he gets P seven but creeps up to P six, but you're not really banking on him in the race as much as it is we're everything we're doing is like focused on qualifying more than anything to this point up until qualifying is done. And then we're we shift to the race. Darksideday: Yeah. is here. And then you want to find for the race just a head to head where like Gasly is ahead of Max and then for some reason they're like 50-50. @f1capper: Yeah, hoping that he's maybe two spots ahead of Max, maybe not one, like right next to him or something. And you pay the minus one sixty five if it is that. You know. Yeah. Okay. But that is my free money Friday. I the other free money f ⁓ Friday I was thinking about, ⁓ it's just getting wild. ⁓ you got one. ⁓ my. ⁓ let's go. Well, yes. Darksideday: Should I give you my one? I've got one. I just found it now while you're your intro. I was like, I was like, wow, that is amazing. @f1capper: Yes. Let's go. I'm in. Tell me. Darksideday: Are you ready? You're not gonna... is Charles de Claire, fastest in practice one. Now you're doing that face, but he's won the last five free practice sessions in Monaco. @f1capper: Th has he ri it like F P one, two and three? Yeah. Okay. Darksideday: Yeah, the last five of them is one. @f1capper: Okay. So you are just saying we're going right into it. Free practice. See? He's plus 140, though. He's plus. Darksideday: I don't even think it's like that's not even that's not even a race read that's just the I think we just want to like go out and get P1 @f1capper: I mean it ju but you really think paying that price is worth it? Darksideday: Monaco. @f1capper: Yeah, I I mean it is. Okay. All right. Is that what's is that is that what you have? Is plus one ⁓ what two point four? Yeah, plus Darksideday: Coffee in it. Yeah, that's it. Let's see, let's see elsewhere. Let's see if I can see. @f1capper: Well then why wouldn't you w what's this what's this top three? ⁓ hell no. Just top three. ⁓ hell no. Okay. Well I I'm s here, I'm gonna sh I'm gonna share my screen too. ⁓ right. It it's not it's not working. It's not okay, we're here. We are here. Who yeah, I take I was looking at like top six for FP. I mean, twelve to one sounds kinda fun. Like this is what goes through my mind is I think we are gonna see definitely someone is is going to hit the hit the barrier. Someone is. I feel like it's going to happen. Nothing to it, just vibes. Someone's gonna do it. And if we get it like late, could be. could be that gas lease just up there like P four, P five or something, and it happens maybe before s you know most or maybe most people just decide like we're not gonna even run our softs in FP one. We wanna we wanna we wanna just focus on optimizing with the mediums and the hard. It's a one stop race. They can use them. They be you ⁓ yeah. Darksideday: Yeah. If you just zoom in a bit, zoom in. ⁓ yeah, that's great. @f1capper: Yeah, I mean I flirted with it. I think that it's I think the top ten bet is is not bad for him. And then I Grid Rival just posted their FP ones and they got Yeah, I don't know, man. They got they got Gasly a ten and a half. They obviously feel like he's just gonna teeter there. So I don't know. I don't know. When it comes to head to head, I don't know if I wanna really do a whole lot of head to head. Darksideday: Is there anything with Max? No. ⁓ Land... What's the Norse for this apple? @f1capper: For head to head? It's minus one forty. I just I just don't I just don't want to chalk that. Darksideday: I think maybe. Maybe. ⁓ think you're doing, you're doing. @f1capper: I think you think I do. Darksideday: Yeah, I think so. Max says, know we're gonna be terrible. Terrible. He doesn't lie. We're gonna be terrible. @f1capper: Well, there was a tidbit that was thrown which I completely ⁓ you know, glossed over over the months, but it is true and I love that call out was the shorter wheelbase because that was something that that was part of their ⁓ design with this this car was just hey, let's have a shorter wheelbase. And I think they had that's typically what they like to do. which is makes it easier for them to go through turns, right? Like they can get through it quick. So and one of the things that Max had hinted today, which I posted as a ⁓ tidbit on the Apex Insider account, which was they are still struggling with ⁓ going over the curbs. And you do go over the curbs here. So it might throw his car out of a loop, maybe the FP one session, ⁓ everything. All right, fine. You've sold me on it. I'll do it. I'll do it. ⁓ I can't get a t Darksideday: I I prefer that for qualifying but I doubt that's even a line yet that land there over Max. @f1capper: I don't I don't think so. I'll I'll keep scouring, but yeah, totally. I think qualifying I'm all but there on Lando for top three qualifying too. I kinda dig it. I kinda think he does stick it. I don't know because it's still it's a little confusing what to think about the you know, where does Lewis Hamilton? Like all everything is showing Ferraris are one and two. And then you slot in Lando, and a full disclosure, too, is and this was going to be another one of my plays, although I don't think the price the price has moved since. We ⁓ I did give this out already, which was ⁓ Leclaire top three for the race, though, at minus one seventy-five. So I'm really basically implying that two guys are going to be in the top three if I take a a Lando plus one fifty, I think, or two point five for top three for qualifying. Should I do it? You think that's worth it? Or do I just say, you know what? Let's just wait for some matchups. Or or I could take yeah, just Lando. Or I could I have LeClaire for the race top three, but I want to take Lando top three for qualifying. Darksideday: So just land there. Catena, Catena. @f1capper: Or or I chalk it to Lando Beats Piastri, but I'm paying a price, minus one fifty. Darksideday: I'd prefer the top three to be honest. @f1capper: Yeah. I think I might do that. I mean, I I hate I ⁓ yeah. Let's talk about very quickly, like what do you think Racing Bulls is gonna do? What do you Yeah. I still can't get Darksideday: No idea. sort of they're either like competitive or they're absolutely nowhere. @f1capper: Yeah, and I I had it that they were going to be it was going to be in the midfield Alpine, Racing Bulls, and then Haas and Williams kinda in that spot. Maybe they flirt with the Racing Bulls. And then I don't know. I don't know what to do from there. ⁓ and another thing is there's a lot of hype with Aston Martin this weekend. I don't know if I want to fall for that yet. Y well, yes, there is. Did you see Alonzo to make Q three? I mean it is eight to one and it's still a long shot. But why is it that was on Bet Fred? Darksideday: Is that? The foot was 25 to 1. Uhhhh @f1capper: It on Bet Fred. Everywhere else, when I checked beat ⁓ Bet three sixty five, it was eight to one. Here, I'll show you ⁓ Q three. ⁓ that's both cars. Drivers to reach Q three. Here you go. If it loads. Yeah, so much for fiber internet. Darksideday: magic. What's this dialogue? @f1capper: What is this man? What is this? Let's see. ⁓ they don't have it yet. What the hell dude? There we go. ⁓ my god, it's plus five fifty now. He's almost up there with the Audi's. Darksideday: Let's see, look, we move lines. What can we say? We move lines. @f1capper: So what I read was is they they said we're scrapping and going back to the twenty twenty five spec. But I but yeah, I d I does that mean that it makes them faster? I've also read that they're still having the vibration issues. Like I don't even know. I don't know. But I am not I don't know if I can fall for this hype yet. Mm mm. Yeah, definitely not at five fifty. It's very the pricing is right now very Darksideday: What would it say to me? Not at that price, anyway. @f1capper: Very intriguing. ⁓ Darksideday: What price is Paris? Is that 100 to 1 or is that 10 to 1? @f1capper: Yeah no, that's a hundred to one. And Lance Roll is 200 to 1. So they really think just because Alonzo is good around here that he's just going to be able to whip this car around. Like you still ⁓ you still need a car that can drive. Like, I'm sorry. Like, what what are we doing here? So I don't I don't buy it. I don't buy it at all. All right, so just let me let me recap here. So Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: Lando top three, Lando and free practice one over max. And then no, let's not go to Caesars. Let me go back here. I wanted to see ⁓ I was I was flirting with Oscar over Kimmy in my head. ⁓ Yeah. Yeah, see the line moved minus one fifty-five now over Ocon, which I still kinda like. I just don't like chalking one minus one fifty-five at this point. Hey, listen, if you want to do it, go for it. It's your money. I don't know. I think that those were the ones that I were that I was eyeing that I really liked. ⁓ Let's see what else, what else, what else? ⁓ the one I did want to bring up. The one that I really am interested in. We'll go through these matchups too. Not the combo markets specials. First ⁓ my god, it moved so much. This was at minus 135 just earlier today, and I was like, let me wait until I have my conversation with my therapist. Look what happened. Darksideday: No, I wouldn't take minus 170. @f1capper: Now I won't do it at minus one seventy. Unless there's one there's another place we can get first lap retirements. Darksideday: No, I don't think 365 do it. @f1capper: They don't. Kidding me, man. Darksideday: Laptops maybe? @f1capper: Man. We had a good one. I should have just taken it. Darksideday: See you later. @f1capper: ⁓ we had a good one there. Sorry guys. Not gonna be there. It's not gonna be there. ⁓ yeah, that sucks. That sucks. What about what do you think about the over? Eighteen and a half. Think so? Yeah. I'm thinking about playing it. Darksideday: Over. I think so. I think that's a combination of for some reason the books thinking every moniker is just gonna everyone's gonna be crashing into each other @f1capper: Yeah. And they're going slower too this year. Darksideday: and the unreliable cars from last race, you never know, it's 50-50. Remember they all break down on none of them. @f1capper: Yeah, but the reliability I think comes to like w you have top speed, right? You're you're at max and you're pushing hard, which they're not here. So I yeah. So my my lean is is is taking that over eighteen and a half. ⁓ Darksideday: Yeah, the push in the engine, which they're not here. Especially in the race. Let me see if it's big. @f1capper: I don't want to do it on bet online because if you do use bet online, they do not mean classified. They just mean if you're gonna do classify or just finish the whole race, it's best to take the under ⁓ in those situation Yeah. If unders on bet online, fine. Overs, don't do it. Go somewhere else. Let's go to Darksideday: as finishes isn't it? of a line you like. @f1capper: Where is classified market? Total classified drivers. Darksideday: Yeah, it's around the same price everywhere. You're not going to get better than that, don't think. @f1capper: I don't know if I want to do it at minus one forty. And you might be able to wait and just hope that there's gonna be some yellows or something, some red, someone Yeah, yeah. And then you can wait. So I'd probably wait a little bit, but if you are frothing for it, then yeah, let's let's go for it. ⁓ what else? Darksideday: In FP1 or something, And... @f1capper: Well, what other things do you think we are Yeah? Darksideday: While we're on 365 Safety car no should be there once you dial up Internet Connect. @f1capper: See, this is stupid. Just don't understand. I don't even have anything. Darksideday: ⁓ no, what have they done here? Have they taken it down? @f1capper: Well I I I have it here, safety car during the race. Darksideday: Yeah, no. @f1capper: So much three to one. Darksideday: So let me give you some stats. @f1capper: Okay, let's hear it. Darksideday: So there's been last 10 runnings, 5 out of 10 times safety cars appeared. One of them was during safety car start, so I don't know if that counts to be honest. And there's no rain forecast, so really 4 out of 10. And it's plus 260. I think that's like, that's really good value. @f1capper: Which that's why I liked the first lap, no retirements, and I'm still now even considering it at minus one seventy, even though I hate that. But I think when I looked at it, so I think Gabe hit the wall last year but still was able to get through. So there but there wasn't a retirement. And I think the last time there was a retirement was that craziness in was it twenty twenty four? When Perez got absolutely obliterated. But then after that, there wasn't really ⁓ a lot first lap retirement. But what Darksideday: ⁓ yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And then even with Monaco, and there's a big crash, it's going to be a red flag. It's not going to be a safety car. @f1capper: Yes. That too. That too, yeah. Which someone in our premium chat said they were t interested in red flags shown during the race as yes. Which is two to one. I'm not too high on that. I don't like really doing the red flag stuff. It's just it's hard. It's hard to predict. You're kinda reliant. And you I remember watching you guys what was it in during Canada when you were sweating for Darksideday: Yes. @f1capper: A yellow to drop and it was just VSC after VSC. And then anytime someone had a broken car they were able to get to the pits. Like shit like that. I just I'm not I'm not a big fan of. Ugh. Darksideday: ⁓ yeah. started such a good race and I thought, what is this? @f1capper: Do I do this? hate this. Why did that move so much? It moves so much. Darksideday: I know you want to take it, you want to take it. And then see about a five driver pile up. @f1capper: ⁓ my drive and five. Yeah, I know. But you know what? My mind is always like, I'd rather that it loses that way than it wins and I wasn't on it. Which is such a stupid mentality, but it's true. It's so true. My mind gets so fixated on something, and I was like, yeah, I do want to do this, but let me let me chat it out. Gotta have my my F1 therapist. Alright, so we like the We like the over. The safety flag no. ⁓ god, I don't know if I want to do it. But I endorse it if you do. There's stats that back it up. I almost would re Darksideday: What was the winning margin? Let's go right to the bottom. I like it, I like it, to be honest. Over. @f1capper: Which which one? Darksideday: I once was like, I feel like they don't really just try and stay that close to the driver, to be honest. @f1capper: What's the margin here? Darksideday: I don't think I'm making that up, let me see... Pass Races... Yep, 2024, seven seconds. Let me see 2025. @f1capper: ⁓ they don't even have they don't even have margin there. Darksideday: No, three seconds to only 25, but maybe not. 2020 free. pause. @f1capper: Well why didn't why wouldn't I just Darksideday: 27 seconds, yeah. @f1capper: Why wouldn't want to just do between five and ten and then stick with that? How many seconds? Wait, repeat that? Darksideday: More for you. So, 2023 was the wet race, Max won 27 seconds. 2024, Leclerc, 7 seconds. And 2025 was Lando, 3 seconds. I think there was a safety car something in that race. @f1capper: Mm. We won't count that because that was I would have to go back and see. I think the plus one hundred seventy five is worth it. I don't see that any one of the top like if you have a McLaren, Mercedes, and a Ferrari, and even if it's like Ferrari vs Ferrari or you know, whatever combination you want to pick from P one to P two, I don't think it's a runaway. I think it ends up being just what worries me is that McLaren does have pretty good deg. And if Lando is like in P two in trying to chase down, let's just say Leclerc in this situation. He might get up there. He might be pushing. He might get to that point where he wants he's getting under the five seconds. I mean, right now, that's what it's kind of implying, especially if they got under at minus ⁓ under six seconds at minus one one forty and then under five seconds. I'm gonna keep noodling on this. It's been a been a minute since I've done a A margin bet on the race. Darksideday: So one thing that you called out in the premium chat was that you could parlay, if you call it that, the bet builder the qualifying and race result. So you can do Norris top three qualifying and then top three race is plus 240. @f1capper: Yeah. Darksideday: And then one I liked the most was PS3 top 3 qualifying and top 3 race is 8 to 1. @f1capper: Do you really think Piastri is gonna be on it? I I don't think he likes these types of tracks. Darksideday: Fake who told you that? That's fake news. He's been P2 and P3 the last two years. @f1capper: I don't know. You think he's good here? Okay. I don't know, it's tough, man. It's tough. It's actually pretty jumbled up there in the top with all this hype on Ferrari and then some with McLaren. Like that's what the that's all I've been hearing through chat and Ferrari. Ferrari It's Ferrari this, Ferrari that. And yeah, exactly. And McLaren's like, we could challenge them. And Mercedes is like, I'm like, well Darksideday: Yeah, Ferrari, Ferrari. Even Ferrari is saying Ferrari. @f1capper: Watch this bee just ⁓ Mercedes runs away with it one and two and then it's like max is P three. Like Darksideday: That would be a sad day for all of us. @f1capper: Yeah, it would be a massive sad day. But we know that's not gonna happen because we're smarter than that. We don't like to do a lot of race bets. We like to make sure that, you know, let's focus on qualifying. That is our focus at the at the moment. And typically ⁓ Monaco, I do less betting through the FP sessions and qualifying and I just you know, some sometimes I end up with three units, maybe five. I don't think I've had a losing Monaco yet. Knock on wood. So ⁓ what else? Any other markets? Let's see the combo markets that I have here. Fastest qualifier and win the race. I mean, at this point you might as well just try to find a two two to one or higher. Darksideday: Wow what a terrible price for Leclerc is plus 240 on 365. @f1capper: Yeah. For all ⁓ honest all of ⁓ All of ⁓ I don't like that. See what qualifying we got. Ooh, that's moved. That was plus one fifty. I mean, I think it's a great price for for Lando in this situation. Darksideday: Yeah, I think so. @f1capper: see what ghastly is on here for tops. Oof. He's six to one here. Yeah, battle online is always gonna be a little bit juicier or juiced up. Juicier. Winning team, Ferrari, McCl Mercedes, McLaren. Yeah, those are those are terrible. Let's see. No, it's just the same stuff. Yeah, I think I I would be interested in that. Okay. Let's see. Let's go through this list. Why not while we're here? Okay, this is crazy. They have signed this is yeah. Yeah, the race. But I just want to see it. I just want to see whether they're pricing. But this is crazy. They have I think they have for FP one. Darksideday: What is that for? For the race so far. Okay. @f1capper: They have signs as the underdog. Darksideday: Do I? I do. @f1capper: Where is he? Yeah, they do. Hold on. See, what is it here? Darksideday: Very strange. @f1capper: They have it the opposite. Well, which side am I taking? Obviously I gotta take signs, right? Darksideday: Can I just say, can be fantastic. They've added a top 12 market last race. I'm just seeing they brought it back for this race. That's what you need, a top 12 market. @f1capper: Yeah, so Bet three sixty five thinks that Albon's gonna do better than Science. MGM ⁓ G ⁓ disagrees. Betonline agrees. Where else do we have matched data? Does Cerny? Shops. Darksideday: It should be there. @f1capper: Not that I trust him as a source. Yeah, it's just kinda it's kind of mixed. I might have to just on principle take signs. I think so. Darksideday: It's just a copy. So while you're on Bat Rivers, go back to the top for the F1 market, ⁓ to the race. Just go back one level. @f1capper: Okay. Where go where? Yeah it's trying. I think it's just my slow ass computer right now. It's trying to record. You don't. Darksideday: Do we not pay you enough at Apex Insiders? @f1capper: I think that my computer is is out of whack at the moment. It is not liking this at all. Well, it's all right, there we go. There we go. Darksideday: Alright, let's go back to... ⁓ there we go. And then go to... The plus... Just open it up, we'll see all the markets here. Yeah, for the top 12, would you like anyone for the top 12? ⁓ no, it's just there. @f1capper: For if a race? Look at this. This is so weird. ⁓ Not really. I I don't know if you wanna buy the hype what Albon's comment said he thinks that this track will suit him well. I've heard that before with Albon and and Williams and they come out and they just they look like they smeared shit on their tires and they can't move. So I don't know what to think of Haas. Haas right now is just kind of in this limbo where they they really are mid at the at the moment, but they they tend to try to find it in the race. I just don't I don't trust it. I don't buy it. I think these these are too much to chalk. I do not trust Arvid on his first race with the racing bulls. So now I'm not not interested in that. Yeah. Darksideday: No? Okay. Should we go back to the content? @f1capper: ⁓ wait to which one? Darksideday: the bit online hit it. @f1capper: Okay, I'm back. What did you want to see? ⁓ the head heads that's right. All right, let's go back through Charles Leclerc, juice to hell over Kimmy. ⁓ Darksideday: You know the head to head? Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, one of them. @f1capper: I kind of do like that, especially at that price, just given that I don't think Russell has had a amazing por performance here. I think Darksideday: I think Mercedes were like P13, P14 last year. @f1capper: Yeah. And then just in general, he's just not I don't think he likes it here. ⁓ Darksideday: Oh, look, Oscar Piatti won. 100%. I think so. @f1capper: This one? Hundred percent. You think so? Darksideday: I'd just like to say I remember the abuse you were giving me when you were like, Hamilton was beaten PSG for like 90 % of that race. @f1capper: One thing ⁓ let me the thing I wanna see is like what else are others pricing at this ⁓ here we go. Let's see. Darksideday: Hmm. @f1capper: Yeah, see I could get Lando Norris at a better price here for Russell, let's see, Piastri over Max. Ooh, maybe I do do this. Darksideday: I can take that tomorrow, I have to go in store, but I'll take that on PSG tomorrow. @f1capper: What do you think of Lando over Russell? Darksideday: Mercedes should be nowhere here really, but you don't know. @f1capper: You don't know. They're pretty good at attraction zones. Darksideday: Like that should be slam dunk land though. But it's not as easy as that is it? @f1capper: I'll tell you this. I'll tell you this ⁓ did they already move it? I just saw them remove one. ⁓ When bet online has a line like this, I think they are they're usually they most of the time are on the right side. So in this situation, they have Lando as minus one thirty five over Russell. I think we got an opportunity to take him for the race here. See, this is this is where I think the top three bet for the race where I'm like, you know, you're almost better off taking Lando in this matchup. What is his let's see. What is his actual race top three? ⁓ what are you doing? Plus one ten. So if I'm paying minus one ten, I'm kind of removing a variable a little bit, but you're expecting that he is going to be ahead of Russell because if it is Ferrari one and two, or if it's Ferrari and Piastri or Kimmy, because Kimmy has been doing better, right? You still you kinda remove a variable. Because what if Russell just DNFs and he sends up P five? Am I Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: Am I thinking of it r in a diff in a wrong way? Darksideday: I don't think so. @f1capper: I I think from just a price perspective you're better off just taking this. Man, this is tempting, even though I don't want to back a Williams. ⁓ That's disgusting. Whoever's paying this, just please pay for the paddock pass. Don't waste your money on that. ⁓ yeah, I don't know. I think that's let's keep going and let's try to wrap up, I guess. All right, here's what I do know based on our conversations. I'm gonna take the signs free practice one. Darksideday: You @f1capper: I'm going to take free practice one with Norris over Max. I will chalk to that. And then I will cry to the chat that he made me do it. And then let's see. And yeah, exactly. And then I do kind of dig this Lewis over Russell. That's what I wanted to see. Is there anything here? Yeah, it's about the same price. Darksideday: And then apologize. @f1capper: Kimmy over Lewis about the same price. ⁓ Piastri over Verstappen. I dig it. I'll I'll take that. ⁓ I kinda wanna do this. What is that price? Do they have a Lando versus Kimmy here? They don't. Damn. I might I said I was gonna fire off on fucking race bets, man. Here I am already considering it. Darksideday: for me I'll take that one yeah No, I don't think so. Is it the same price recording? @f1capper: For what? Darksideday: Head to head smudge up, lander over Kimi. @f1capper: It's not here. Darksideday: Oh, is it not on better mind either? @f1capper: No, that's that's it right here. It's minus one fifteen. Yeah, n no, that's for race. No, this is race. Darksideday: I'll just record it. @f1capper: I kinda I th I kinda think if I'm already projecting in my head I'm willing to take qualifying top three Lando, why wouldn't I just take these two and just call it a day? You know, you're ex Darksideday: Yeah. Or even just over, I don't know who you think would be worth- Kimmy, surely, but I don't know. or you just split between the two, just had your best. @f1capper: Yeah. But then I'm all in on McLaren. And I hate that. I hate that a lot. what about signs over Ocon? Darksideday: ⁓ Maybe, maybe. @f1capper: Or there's one Piastri over Russell. Darksideday: ⁓ that's it, plus 124. @f1capper: ⁓ I feel sick just thinking about this right now. Am I really gonna take all these race pets before? ⁓ yeah, exactly. Exactly. Here we go. And I completely ruined it. See, that's why I kinda wanna do the chalk but I'm worried that books are smarter than that and they're gonna just they're gonna just chalk pretty Yeah. Yeah. Darksideday: And then they're going to be nowhere in FP1 and FP2. ⁓ my god. They're definitely not as well, so. @f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ let me pull up some grid arrival while we're here. And then you can just keep Darksideday: I was looking dabble, finally got theirs online today because I thought they never going to do it for quality so let's do a quality one @f1capper: See What do you get? ⁓ you s you Du Quali. Yeah. Yeah, Duquali. Let's do quality. All right. So what I got is Leclerc two. Max four and a half. George three and a half. Signs twelve and a half. Gasly nine and a half. Arvid 12 and a half. Lando three and a half. Kimmy three. Alonzo sixteen and a half. Lewis. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: Three and a half, Piastri five, Colapinto eleven and a half, Gabe thirteen and a half, Berman twelve and a half, Perez eighteen and a half, Botas twenty, Stroll nineteen and a half, and then Albon thirteen and a half, Lawson eleven and a half, Hulk twelve and a half, Isaac eight, and then Ocon fourteen, which I think I already did one qualia. Darksideday: Okay, there's some differences with dabble got maxed at five and a half. @f1capper: Which that's probably right. ⁓ Darksideday: I that stroll worse than is 100 % one of the picks is going to be dead last. @f1capper: Yeah, I I already got one where I did Lando f better than four because he got bumped to three and a half now, and then Ghastly better than nine and a half, which I'm obviously afraid of Ghastly. I just wanted to pick something really quick while I had the four and Darksideday: Oh yeah, Dabble's got Lander at 4.5, so I'm taking that. And maybe Piazzetti 5.5. I don't know if Strahl was an option. @f1capper: You should take that. I I don't mind that now that we've been kind of talking through it. Darksideday: Yeah, that's my picks. I think just them two. Clarence. @f1capper: I guess the only thing that worries me, the one the reason why I don't like want to take the stroll is because DNFs. If someone wrecks, like they're they could just automatically in in Q through in Q one, I'm sorry, they could just clear it pretty quick. ⁓ but I think nineteen and a half is being pretty generous for a land stroll. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: They really feel like he's he's hyped up. So they're hyping him. Darksideday: I mean there's three positions 22nd, 21st, 20th He's not beating his teammate @f1capper: Okay. Darksideday: Is he beating both of the Cadillacs and someone else? It could be Bottas, but that's it. Without DNFs. @f1capper: What about DNS? Well, let's do yours because you have a four and a half play. Darksideday: Yeah, Volando, 4.5. And PSG, 5.5. And then who else? What was... I have Alonzo, 18.5. to know about that. @f1capper: Turning off my camera for a second. I don't know what's going on with it. I'm sorry, what did you say? Darksideday: I was just saying, I have Alonzo 18.5, Ocon 13.5, I think that's worse. I can't see him being decent here to be honest. @f1capper: Do I have I have fourteen. Damn. Two the Ocon thirteen and a half. With I have honestly I should be doing an Alonzo sixteen. Let me see if ⁓ Let me see what PrizePix has. F one Excuse me. Yeah, I need to be taking Alonzo on ⁓ worse sixteen and a half. Darksideday: ⁓ yeah, for sure. @f1capper: Price picks. I'm gonna do ⁓ I'm gonna do I'm gonna do Alonzo Worse with How is Perez eighteen and a half? Darksideday: Yeah, I have 19 and a half. @f1capper: I mean this is just I'm chalking to this. I'm doing worse. I know I'm kinda going against usually what but the one spot for each, maybe two even for Alonzo, doesn't make sense to me. I don't I just not buying it. I'm not buying it at all. That's the play. That's my pod play. Fu you know. We're gonna chalk to Perez and Alonzo, just wars. Yeah. Darksideday: Alright, I've got one more I'm adding in. Bear Moon, twelve and a half more. I can't see it. @f1capper: I was gonna do that on price picks actually with you on but then that means who slots in? Who slots in? So Darksideday: Yeah, was P17 last year. @f1capper: More ⁓ dude, I'm I'm taking Norris then. He's four and a half here. Honestly, I feel like Russell at three and a half given the circumstances right now. let's see. Let me see what he is on. Maybe instead of playing Lando versus Russell on and chalking to it, I'll just be doing the implied that Lando is gonna be better at four than four and a half with Russell worse than three and a half. Darksideday: Yeah, that's the way to go. @f1capper: I think that's that's the move I'm gonna do. So I'm gonna book that I'm booking that and I can't wait to lose. feel like I've been g kind of getting it's been so volatile for me on price picks. I I mean I'm still up overall, but man, I've been taking some wild swings between IndyCar. Darksideday: podcast pickups do quite well so I think we good luck we got good luck @f1capper: Yeah, they do. Okay, I booked that one on price picks. I did that's my that's gonna be my play. So if I go back to my actual head to head play, then I will take I will take Hamilton over Russell and then I will take Lando over Kimmy and that will be the play for the for the race, that is. That's what I'll do. Darksideday: I'm just sharing my one on X if you want to copy it. Any dabblers? Do you have access to dabble or is that not available? @f1capper: All right. ⁓ I think I do. I probably should look into it. just quickly oops, it's the wrong one. Darksideday: that's all I have access to so my first year doing pickups and all. @f1capper: So where where you where do you want me to post it? Post it in ⁓ post it in our Pick'ems play. Darksideday: Okay, I'll do that, I'll do that. Let me do an X. Do an X as well. @f1capper: And then yeah, on X we'll get it on there. Okay. All right. I'll have to check ⁓ about Dabble. Let me see. Is it available here in Texas? Dabble. Darksideday: I I like it for F1 because it's very clear, like positions and all that. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Yeah, send send me send me ⁓ a promo. I'll get on it. F it. I'll start I'll start getting my action in. Darksideday: Alright, alright. @f1capper: ⁓ Darksideday: Okay, was there anything else that is going to make us rich this weekend? @f1capper: I think that's it. I think that's it. I need to get on with Indy now. Get on with Indy and then I'll s I'll see everyone at ⁓ six thirty AM. Darksideday: Is that the time for you for a session? ⁓ Get the vinyls out. @f1capper: Yeah. Then Yeah, yeah. S I mean, six thirty is fine, I guess. And then Darksideday: And that's like every race now for a while, isn't it? @f1capper: Pretty much. Saturdays are gonna be a little bit more they're they're at five thirty, so it's Darksideday: And then back to, ⁓ what's that? 4 a.m. @f1capper: That's four thir four thirty in the morning. I don't know but if I'm gonna even wanna do that. ⁓ see s so one of ⁓ is saying yeah, they got different drop times. Okay. Yeah. Alright, well that's it. I'll s we'll see you guys in the chat. Have a good one. Darksideday: Alright guys, see you later.