Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Season Win Totals, Aliens and the Islanders

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NFL Season Win Totals, Aliens and the Islanders · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Network Guy and Chad Milman. Guess what, folks. We might
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: be in the middle of NBA playoffs. We might be
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the NHL plaos. We might be
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: in the middle of baseball season. We might be in
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the middle of the French Open. We might be in
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the middle of golf season. But we're like, no joke,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred days from the start of football, which means
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: we got an excuse to get Shawn Corner on the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast with me and my bff, my companion, Mr
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter professional better. How are you, man, dad, buddy?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Did you enjoy our one sunny day this entire weekend?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I think we had a sunnyday on Monday. That was
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: pretty much it for a whole holiday weekend. Sent day
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: on Monday, Uh, my mom came to visit from California.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Great weekend in Connecticut to have relatives visiting when you
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: couldn't leave your house. Uh, Saturday or Sunday it was
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: raining so badly and it was so uncomfortable here in Connecticut. Um.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: That always makes for a lot of fun when a
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: relative who you may or may not have tension with
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: has come to visit, not seeing them for almost two
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: years because of the pandemic. So that was great. Are
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: are big? You know, everyone has their family get together
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: untilways the weird awkward conversations like you have the weird
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: aunt that just hates Lebron James, or just the conversations
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: you don't want to have. Uh. We talked a lot
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: about aliens, big topic, and I was wondering, Chad, have
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: you seen a UFO or an alien walking on Earth? Well,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: you could argue that a lot of the people I know,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the only explanation for their behavior is that they are
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: aliens number one, well technically an including by the way,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: most of the people that we work with, including maybe
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: including maybe a couple of people on this call, including
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Sean Corner and Matt Mitchell, because that that might be
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: otherwise Matt Mitchell living in his basement and his sensibilities
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: and Shun Corner running simulations, uh for fun are the
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: only reasons to the alien life is the only reasons
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: that they could do these things. Um, let me tell
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: you a story, please. I did one one year. You know,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: my my family and I used to do these uh
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: are v trips every year with my best friend and
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: his family from the time our kids were about nine,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: uh no, probably ten until sixteen, and they were amazing.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It would be both families. We'd go to one state
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: rent in r V. We did death Vale A, we
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: did Utah, we did um the South, we did ore
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Agon one and and they're amazing. They are a comedy
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: of errors. I highly recommend it, especially if you've got
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: like younger kids. They're just so much fun to do.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So um we did New Mexico one year, and New
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Mexico is the only state we were driving in where
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: you could not get anything on the radio no matter
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: what channel you went on, like it was just desolate
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and barren and really felt like a a very poor
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: state that needed more resources than it had. But we
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: did go to Roswell, and we did go to the
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Roswell Museum. And I am thoroughly a hundred convinced that
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Roswell was true that area fifty one aliens landing. You
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: can either believe it or not believe it. I just
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: choose to believe it because I think gets interesting and
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: fun and I lose. I gained nothing by not believing it,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: and I lose nothing by believing in it, you know
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: what I mean. So there's no reason not to, like,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: why not believe there's another life form? How arrogant are
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: we to believe that we're the only planet they can
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: have intelligent life? It's idiotic. So like basically that's what
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: we're talking about. Just how not that no one cares,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: but it's just it's information where people are just like,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: what am I gonna do with that? Like until these
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: aliens land and they're in front of us, what are
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: we gonna do with it? But you know, my in
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: and uncle they're terrified about They think it's gonna be
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: like Christopher Columbus and the Native Americans, like they're gonna
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: wipe us out. And I'm the other way where I'm like, Okay,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: these these things have the technology to travel across the universe.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: You don't think they have the technology to turn a
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: planet into an Earth themselves. They don't like, what can
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: we really benefit to them? So I'm on the other
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: review of that. They are like coming here, they're checking
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: us out. But I think they look as we're so stupid.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: They're just like, you know what, let's just keep wait
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: and waiting and waiting to see what these people can
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: do because again, as a species, we all know it.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: We're pretty stupid. So I'm of the fans that they're
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: not gonna come here to kill us. They're coming here
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: just like you know, check us out. Listen, a guy
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: like Corner. We can bring Corner in here because you know,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: he's sitting behind his computer, he's working all the angles.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: He might already have odds. And whether or not alien
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: life exists, right, I don't think there's any doubt. You know,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: whether they look like how they're portrayed movies is another thing,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But I think without a doubt they exist. Person at
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Action Network most likely to be an alien, Lee Boff,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, too easy. Sean Corner, Oh that's good.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to go with Freeman. How could you
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: not say Freedman? Oh my god, Matthew Friedman. Simon Hunter
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: brings in Mike Leeboff, who has been a regular guest
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: on the podcast. Uh. Corner brings in Matthew Freedman, also
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a really good one. Uh. Matt Mitchell is in the
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: channel and saying Stucky And I gotta believe that the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: one name wonder stucky um was my first instinct. There
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: is something freakish about his sleep habits, something freakish about
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: his willingness to invite anybody from Twitter to come visit
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: him and stay with him in Kentucky. Something freakish about
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the fact that he's gone to visit random people on
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Twitter and stay with them for like a week at
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: a time. Um that can only be fueled by alien
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: life that is still learning about the human species. I
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: actually can see that. I could see stuck again home
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: and on zipping and just being whatever he really is.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: But he's definitely he might be too much of a degenerate,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know if an alien could be as
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: he's like the when I think of a true gambler,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Stucky is like right up there, man, Like that dude,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I'll literally go to bed, I'll do my three m
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: wake ups and stuff. You'll still be on Twitter talking
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: tennis at three in the morning, even though he's talking
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: hoops and baseball at nine pm. I'm just like, this
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: guy is an animal. That is so true. Matt Mitchell, Uh,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: who was also a huge uf O guy, coming is
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: no surprise to anybody. Uh wins the prize. Guys, we
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: got a seventeenth game and that impacts everything. Sean, I
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: want to start with you because I want to get
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: into season win totals for the NFL. But I don't
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: think we can get too season win totals until we've
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: had a conversation about how the seventeenth game, uh impacts
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the modeling and the simulations that you do. So take
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: me through that for you. Yeah. So, I mean it's
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: it's pretty simple on my end. I just add the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: game to my simulator. UM. And I had an article
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: up on Action Network UM sort of analyzing which teams
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: benefited or which teams were hurt by the seventeenth game.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: But you know my end, that's what simulators are made for.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I I factor it in there. UM. But from I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: understand Simon, it kind of messes up with your you're
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: modeling and what things that you typically do this time year.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Corners very sort of calm response in that the simulator
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: will just take care of everything you just add. Again,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: he might be an alien, now he's just so cool
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: comic collective. I feel like I'm the opposite where I'm
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: just like panicking seven. I mean, I didn't sleep for
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: three weeks en up to the NFL season with the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: COVID stuff because I just couldn't. I just couldn't find
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: the math behind what the effect the fans would have
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: on the teams. And it turned out if you just
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: would have taken road dogs all year last year, you
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: would have came out with a nice profit. And I
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: should have just known that's how I was gonna be
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that homefield was gone. These veteran quarterbacks gonna have a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: huge advantage. So again, looking at this season, I plug
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: it in. It's it's throwing it off in the sense
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: that like we're gonna talk about we have bye weeks
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Week four, team we have like it all depends on
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: how you run your simulation. But I have certain things
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: where like an older team like Pittsburgh say they're bye
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: week's week thirteen. Excuse heavy for me towards Pittsburgh, I
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: give them a bump of maybe half a win because
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I just think that extra health and the season is
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: a big deal. So it's really interesting where I put
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: the one game in and it kind of threw my
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: thing off where I thought it was gonna give to
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: certain teams, you know, point two to point seven win difference.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Some teams have bumped at one point three, Some teams
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: have dropped them down negative like point four. It's just
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: interesting how the schedule took in the strength of schedule.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So there's certain teams like the Browns and the Ravens
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: they play each other, have a bye week, and then
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: they play each other the following week. Like, there's certain
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: weird things they did this season where you know there's
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be teams are playing each other back to back
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: in Division. That's that that excuse a lot of the
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: season because that's a big deal that you know, some
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: of these teams are playing five Division all games to
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: end the season. It's just very unique the way they
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: did the schedule this year with the seventeen games, the
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: the adding of the seventeenth game. Simon when you're thinking
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: about it and you say, okay, I see the Steelers
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: getting a week fourteen by that might make them be
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: bumped up half a game in their win total. What
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: does that process look like for you sort of in reality?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Are you in front of a spreadsheet, are you in
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a computer? Are you modeling it for each individual game?
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Like how how deep in the weaves do you go
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: for each team to make a determination like that? And
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I just want people to get mad at me. Pittsburgh's
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: by a week's week seven. I'm just using them as
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: a reference upset M. Yeah, it's it is tough to
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: say because like I steal a lout of my info,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Like I'll use guys who I trust on their data
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and I'll take that and plug it against my own
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: and see how I'm matching up and see if just
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: if my numbers are way off compared to other people's,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: because again I say all the time, I don't have
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: all the answers, like I like to use other people
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: because I I learned from other people. So if they're
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: seeing things different, I see it the kind of the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: same way where a lot of people are kind of
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: lazy with strans of schedule. Let's just be like, Okay,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: here's everyone's record of last year, plugg into the database,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: here's the easiest schedule. So like people are gonna be
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: like the Eagles and Cowboys have the easiest schedule this year. Yeah,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I wonder why they're from the NFC East, the worst
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: division of football last year. So it's one of those
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I take it with a grain assault when I'm projecting
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: things out. And again we talk all the time injuries, injuries, injuries, injuries,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: everyone has a plan, and then three weeks in we
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: already know to two really good quarterbacks are probably gonna
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: be hurt, really important defense players gonna be hearing in
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: certain teams. So when I'm projecting these things, I'm just
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: looking for value. I'm looking to give myself enough room
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: where the value is going to be worth it to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: bet it now, because like we just said, we're a
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: hundred days away from football and we're betting money right now.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So you're looking for value the whole point of it
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: now corner. When you do your simulations, are you at
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: all curious do you run them for a sixteen game
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: season as well as the seventeen game season? Um? No, No,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: that would be unnecessary work on my end. Um, I'm
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: just setting up the whole seventeen game schedule in the
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: playoffs and letting it run um and the bye weeks.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: It's interesting because you know it could depend on injuries.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: You know, the Chiefs have a bye week week twelve,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So if Mahomes is dealing with a three three week
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: injury in week six versus week eleven, they're gonna benefit
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: by having the bye week in week twelve. So there's
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: certain things that you can't really predict. UM. So again,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: you know the simulator. You know, I run everything ten
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: thousand times and it kind of sorts itself out. There's
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of things that we can't predict. But as
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Simon mentioned at this point in the off season, it's
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: all about finding value. So you know, setting up the simulator,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I can catch interesting things we could talk about in
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: a bit, but like the Aaron Rodgers potential trade UM
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: finding value with that with other teams. UM, there's a
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: lot of cool different angles I'm playing with this time
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: here rank for me how the simulator UH plays a
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: role in your life when it comes to conversations in
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: your house. For example, for example, you and your wife
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: are getting ready to go to dinner. Are you like,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: hold on, I can't go yet. I gotta run the simulator.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Do you call it the simulator? Do you call it
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: something else? I just want to get a sense of
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Like to me, the simulator is an engine that is
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: so important and so dominant in your life. I need
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to know how it plays into your relationship. No, I
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: do not tell my wife that I need to run
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the simulator. If anything, when we're talking about going to dinner.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I'm probably running a simulator trying to predict what type
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: of food she wants um and setting odds on that.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: So that's how that conversation would go. And did you
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: name the simulator? Uh? Uh, maybe I should I have not.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Would you consider Chad? I can call it Chad all
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: upper case. Yeah, let's call a chat. And I was
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: going to think, let's think of a good acronym for
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the simulator, cool humanistic avoidance data. Wow, I love it. Alright,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: that was pretty good. It's Chad. Oh my god, simon
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: good that. I'm blown away, especially the fact that was
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: off the cost. That's that was way too clean for you. Ye,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I've never thought of it in my life. But you
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: guys don't understand. I'm so fast. My mind works like
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: a simulator itself. I am so fast in these moments.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: You listen to the Thunderdome and you think, my god,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: he's so clever. He goes off scripts so often, and
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: now you're seeing it in real time. On the Tuesday
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: podcast too, you mentioned Aaron Rodgers as part of the simulator.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Explain to me what you've done in your simulations for him,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: and then I have a follow up. So right now, UM,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I have sixty five percent chance he stays in Green Bay,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: UM thirty percent chance he goes to Denver, and then
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I have five percent left over for you know, retirement.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Holding out other teams like the Raiders, UM doesn't have
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: much of an impact on everything, but you know that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: sixty UM staying Green Bay and the thirty percent in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Denver has a huge impact on both their wind totals.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's really interesting to see where the Packers
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: like they're over under right now. If a book were
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: to post, it would probably be right around nine. But
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: that's one of the least likely outcomes for them. They're
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: they're most likely going to be a ten and a
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: half over under or you know, like a seven and
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a half to eight over under. So it's it's almost
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: like this this kind of like curve like that, where
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: nine is like an unlikely outcome. So it's really interesting
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: to see. UM, so I have that built out for them,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: but in packs the rest of the league too, So
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: you know, the a f C West has some pretty
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: interesting ramifications for that. It looks like the market has
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: factor that them pretty well. But um, you know, the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: potential for Rogers to go to Denver has a huge
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: impact on these a f C wind West wind totals
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: as well. Does your cool humanistic avoidance data machine need
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: to run multiple simulations to account just for that one
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers variable. Yeah, yeah, So that's built in there.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: So every time it runs a season, he's either trade
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: to the Packers or traded to the Broncos, or stay
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: stays on the Packers. So I'm not using like an adjusted,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: um you know, power rating for them. It's you know,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: definite he's on this one team or he's on this
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: other team. Same thing with Deshaun Watson, which is really
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: really tricky, but you know, is Deshaun Watson even playing
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: football or is he suspending six games? So I have
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: like all those sort of built out now the percentages
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: I'm using, you know, are certainly up for debate. I know,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Simon I kind of debated this on our schedule release show,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: but um, I think it's more likely that Rogers goes
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to the Broncos than he might think. So, you know,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: that's kind of that biases sort of built into my
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: simulator itself. So that's that's a little bit of bias
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: beating being put into there. But at the end of
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: the day, it's being simulated out so that I can
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: factor in all these various things. Um, sort of naturally, Simon,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: why don't you think Aaron Rodgers going to the Packers,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I mean going to the Broncos. Um. Well, it's one
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of those where I just, like we talked all the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: time about value, I'm capitalizing on the value. So the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: Chargers bumped all the way up to four to one
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: on the news that he was there. At one they
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: went all up to forty one because people thought he
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: was going to Denver. So I took charges Super Bowl
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: just because there was value there. Because I'm banking I'm
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: not going there. I've taken their season win total when
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: it was available. I took them division when it was available.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: It's just one of those where I just logically, he
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: has no leverage. Um, they're in a position where there
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: already put together team, they have all the pieces, they're
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: they're easily one of the top three teams NFC. Aaron,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: He's he's upset. Um, There's no doubt about it. Uh.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: He went to them and asked for a contract extension.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: They gave him back a number that to him was
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: a slap in the face. So you pretty much said,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: f you don't call me, don't try to come visit me.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not talking to you. Guys, we've seen him. He's
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: in Hawaii, he's chilling. I think by time it gets
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: closer to season, his teammates are hitting him out. I
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: just can't see Aaron leaving him. He's in a situation
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: now where if they if they let him go right now,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: it's thirty million dead cap, and they can spread it
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: across two years now because it's after June one, so
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: they could do whatever. It is. Fifteen million this year,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: seventeen million next year. Okay, that sounds all fun and good.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: They don't believe in love. We we know they don't
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: believe in Jordan's love. If they did, they'd be acting
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: way cooler than they've already shown their cards. And they're like,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Aaron will do whatever you want. Like literally, the flour
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: sounds like he was gonna cry on the show talking
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: about how much Aaron means to him. So all the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: science point to this is just fun media talk. I'm
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: with him, though, I still think there is a percentage
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: that he leaves because you never know what these teams.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: If Denver's offering up three stud defenders and two first
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: round picks. Green Bay is gonna do the deal. Like
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: they're in a spot now where it kind of makes
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: sense they would take a deal. But I'm just looking,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: what's the most logical thing, Like he just said he's
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: given a sixty chance he's gonna stay in Green Bay.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: To me, that feels like there's plenty of value there
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: to just be taking these green Bay futures because, like
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: we just said, they're at a discount right now, all right,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: So so I agree with Simon, by the way, I
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: think it's like eighty five percent chance that he stays
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: in Green Bay. That also, as much as the packers
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: are begging and sort of thinking about how they can
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: get him back, he has no leverage, Like other than retiring,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: he really has no leverage. And he's a competitive guy
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: who still has a lot to prove and is you know,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: the past two years getting to the NFC Title Game,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: incremental improvement and NFC that to me is entirely up
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: for grabs. Uh, He's not going to leave a team
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: that is that close to being able to play for
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: his Super Bowl when he knows that he had sixteen
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: seasons as had one chance to win a Super Bowl?
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Did it? And is you know, pales in comparison to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: other quarterbacks who are not nearly as talented. And we
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: talked about the time how smart Aaron is? Does Aaron
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: really want to go from a division of Jared Golf,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins and either a rookie or Andy Dalton to
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Herbert Mahomes And you know you can say you want
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Derek car is not terrible. He's probably better than most
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: of those quarterbacks we just named. So I just again,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the logical sense to me is just like I don't
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: know why he would make the move. It just doesn't
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: make sense on paper. All right. So, Corner, since you're
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: clearly so wrong in your simulator, is uh, have your
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: your human bias is ruining Chad? Which is sad? Um?
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Where are your values? What? What did the simulator produce
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: for you and made you feel there was some value?
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Where a hundred days out the overs and three unders?
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Where would you like me to start? Start with the overs? Alright?
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: So the first over I love is the Cardinals over
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: eight right now? Um, you know one of the things
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: that the Cardinals is I think their defense is sneaky
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: good with Vans Joseph h Last year they finished seventh
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: and waited d v O A, so they finished the
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: year strong. Um. I think bringing in J. J. Watt Um,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: it's gonna make it tougher for teams to double Chandler Jones.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: They could be a nice little duo. UM. And then
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Isaiah Simmons. You know, he showed some problems at the
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: end of his rookie season, so you know, with him
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: and rookies Avan Collins, they have a potential to be
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: a great linebacking duo. Um. They lost Patrick Peterson, but
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: they brought in Malcolm Butler and Buddha Baker is one
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: of the best safeties in the game. So I think
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: this defense is pretty strong. And then on the offensive
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: side of the ball. You know, Kyler Murray's entering your three,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: so he hasn't even broken out yet. I mean he's
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: entering his prime. We have yet to see him really
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: peak as a passer, so he could have a Josh
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Ellen type season. Um. And then this team is gonna
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: go over the edge in my opinion. Um. You know,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a J. Green, I don't know what he can provide
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: at this point in his career, but he can be
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: a red zone weapon for him. Um, Rondale Moore was
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: a great pick. I love him in this offense. UM.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: You know, they throw a ton of screen passes, so
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who just get him in the ball
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: and he has that make you miss ability. So this
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a very tough offense to defend. UM.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: And then when we think about you know, the NFC West,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: it's a really tough division, but their schedule is only
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the fifteenth toughest. UM. They have games against the Jaguars, Texans, Panthers, Bears,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: and Lions, UM, So their schedule isn't that tough considering
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: their division. So right now I have the the over
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: um or nine or more wins at fift and seven
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: or less at thirty one percent UM with the nineteen
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: percent chance of a push. So I love the value
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: on the over here if he can get an eight. Alright,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Cuds over eight. Completely agree with you about the defense.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Love the potential of Isaiah Simmons Simon, Do you have
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion on that one? Yeah, I had him
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: at eight point four, so like I leaned towards the over.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: But the human element of me, Chad, we know on
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: this show we hate Cliff Kingsbury. We trashed them. We
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: wrote them early on once we figured out he's a fraud.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: We faded him to the end the year and it
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: was very profitable for us with Ariazona last year. UM,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of him. It's it's tough,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: like it's it's one of those where because of that division,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: like he just said, like they do have some weak
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: opponents outside of it. Um, such a tough division, and
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they addressed in the offensive line enough.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: And we saw Kyler breaking down taking those big hits,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: and it's still one of those where you know, I
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: love the J. J. Watt move, could care less about
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the A. J. Green one. I just think it's one
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: of these teams where that's a good price. So if
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: you if you do like the Over, you believe in Kyler,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: that's that's a fair price. Because I do have it
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: over like lean towards the Over. Personally, I'm either gonna
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: take gender I won't touch it just because I'm so
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: off Clin Kingsbury. I like the corner is wearing a
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers hat, which is one of the teams
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I am most heavily invested in. Are they going to
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: be one of the teams on your over list? Yes,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: they are, of course. My god, I've got such a gift.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: I didn't even know that was coming. Why don't we
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: talk about them? Now? Tell me about them? So I
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: do like the over nine um, and you know a
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: lot of great things to say about their offense. Um.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: You know they upgrade their offensive line by bringing Matt
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Feiler and Corey Lindsey. I love those moves. And then
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: they were able to have ray Sean Slater fall to
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: them at pick thirteen, So I couldn't have asked for
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: a better outcome there. Um. You know, they lost Hunter Henry,
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: but you know I like the Jared Cook signing. That's
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: more of a short term solution. I've heard rumors that
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: they might bring in zach ertst so I'm not too
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: worried about the loss of Hunter Henry there. Um. And
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: you know the coaching change, um going to brand Staley.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I love that because I can't tell you how many
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: times I bet on the charges of the past years
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: and witness Anthony Lynn makes some very poor decisions later
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: in the game that cost them. So that's gonna be
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: a good change. And in that regard, hopefully we can
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: see Derwin James stay healthy this year. I think that's
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be huge for the defense if he can stay healthy.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Um So, you know I love that. And even factoring
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: in the Rogers Aaron Rodgers situation where I'm giving him
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: at chance going to the Broncos, I'm still showing value
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: on this. So if I'm like you guys and I
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: think that he's gonna stay in Green Bay, I would
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: love this even more. Um So, I love the over nine.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I have um ten or more wins at forty percent chance,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: eight or few at thirty three percent chance. So I
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: love the value at nine. Here. I don't know why
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers aren't getting more futures love. They're
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: about thirty to one right now. They have been further
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: down the road map there the futures rankings, but still, like,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know why fans are not piling on. I
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: bet on them before the Rams. I bet on the Bills,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: but I like the Chargers better. Like that to me
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: is a team primed Simon. They're primed. Yeah, I think
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: it's yeah, it's tough. It's tough with the Chargers. Like
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: just first, thanks to the schedule. I love that we're
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: gonna know a lot about this team by the time
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: they get to their bye week. They literally start the
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: year playing Washington Football team, like a great defense. Then
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: they're at home the Cowboys. Then they're at the Chiefs,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: then they're playing Vegas, then they play Cleveland, then they're
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore, then they have their bye week. So it's
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: really interesting to see how they're gonna start the year
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: where I'm right there with them, Like I am obsessed
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: with Herbert, like the throws he made last year, it
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: was like a fifth year pro. Like, this kid's upside
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: is on ill and they've improved their all line, have
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: all the weapons back on defense, have a great offensive weapons.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: So to me, I love the Chargers. I'm gonna be
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: on the over. But of course it feels like a
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: trap deep down because, like you just said, why are
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: more people betting the Super Bowl future? I think maybe
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: some pros are scared because you like, when you bet futures,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: you'd like to think of a team winning the division
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: because you're you're betting on a top seed. We've learned
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: from history usually it helps to have home field advantage
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: through the playoffs. To really make it to the Super Bowl.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's the mesitation. They're thinking, I'm not getting
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: enough value where we already know the Chiefs losing in
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl last year. My homes is gonna be piste
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: off this year. So that's I think that's been factored
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: into the Super Bowl odds right now. Pros, no, nothing
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: go with Chad corner. You agree with me? I know
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: you do what else you got on your what else
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: you got on your on your on your Chad list. There.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: The third team that I like the over is the
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: football team. UM, and you know they're their defense is
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: going to be scary good again this year. They were
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: third in DV away last year. Chase Young will only
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: get better near two. Um, but they were you know
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: they also brought in William Jackson, which all of them
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: play more man coverage. UM. You know they're drafted Jamie Davis,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: which is another great pick in my opinion. So this
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: guy's limit for this defense. But then you know, bring
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel is going to help
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: elevate this offense. UM. You know this is another total
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: where eight's the most likely number, but there's more value
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: on the over, So you know, nine or more wins,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I'm getting that fifty one percent at the time in
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: my Chad simulation, and seven or fewer wins thirty percent
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: at the time. So it's one of those things where
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if this pushes at the end
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: of the year. But there's way more outcomes where they
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: clear this number than not love this team also a
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: team I invested a future in thinking Deshaun Watson was
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: going to go there. H don't think they're gonna win
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl with Ryan Fitzpatrick as a quarterback, but
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: their defense is so good. Their front four is one
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: of those like this could be. You know, if there
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: ever was a time for magic to meet fits Magic,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: it is with this team and this defense that can
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: be so incredibly effective. Simon shook his head vigorously when
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: you said the Washington football team. Yeah, I'm I love
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: them so much. It's it's really like the not that
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I'm comparing them to Denver, but I just think this
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: is the Denver model, y'ear. They one. It was Peyton
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Manning and unreal front four talent, and their von Miller
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: is Chase Young. This kid is a freak so I
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: love all the value, especially in that division. They haven't
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: had a repeat in a long time. I think it's
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: going on twenty years a division winner. But I just
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: love them. I just think that people are gonna come
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: in the year like me as an Eagles fan. People
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: are hyped in the Eagles Giants. Fans are all back
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: in on their Giants. Everyone's back in on the Cowboys.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: You're just getting a lot of value right now on
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: the Washington football team. They're kind of their forgotten team
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: right now on this division. Before we get to Shawn
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Corner's overs, Simon or unders, are there any overs that
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: you feel strongly about, most strongly about the one that
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: that he hasn't mentioned? Um, I mean pure value wise,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I took Carolina's over. I just thought people are really
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: coming in heavy on the Bucks. They're coming in heavy
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: on the Atlantic because they really like Atlanta's draft, and
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: once again they're gonna be bet in the Saints just
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the way it goes. So I look for a low
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: total I like Carolina, and then for a high total
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: hold on what was Carolina Carolina was at I'm looking
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: it up right now. Uh yeah, okay, yep. Seven and
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: a half um. And for the Colts, I do love them,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: but the more I look at their schedule, it is
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: scaring me a little bit. I had them graded out
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: eleven point three wins and now the schedules out and
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: it's set. Man, the Colts have a tough schedule. They
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: just I mean, we can go through a real quick
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: It's just interesting to see it all paper, just because
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: you know, we knew, you know what the schedule is,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: you know what the teams are gonna play. You just
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: it's just different once they said it. So they literally
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: start the year with Seattle at home, then they got
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the Rams at home, then they're at Tennessee, then they're
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: in Miami, then they're at Baltimore. So that is a
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: hard start to the year. That's five playoff teams they
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: started the year against. But I just love this Colts team.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, we saw what they did with Rivers who retired.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: So for me, Carson Wentz, I'm bylow on them. I
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: just love the upside of the Colts here. It's uh
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: ten wins right now I believe is they're total Coats
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: and Panthers both plus money on the over Panthers plus one,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: eighteen Colts plus one ten, so a lot of value
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: in both of those plays shown. Corner. Please give me
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: your unders, your underwear, just your NFL wind total unders.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: So my first under is actually a team I think
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: probably have the best off season. So this isn't you know.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: When it comes to the Chargers and football team, team
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: were like, I love their off season, I like the
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: over It's not that simple. I think the Browns had
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the best off season, but I love their under um. So,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: you know, when it comes to their defense, that was
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: the issue last year, and I think they made all
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the right moves by bringing Josh Johnson, Troy Hill, Jadeveon Clowney,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I think this defense is gonna be vastly improved. However,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: you know, they went eleven and five last year with
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: an minus eleven point differential. They played like a five
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: football team, So it's important to remember that this isn't
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: an eleven and five team that improved. It's more like
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a five team that's improving. Um, they went seven and
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: two and one score games. I think even with an
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: improved defense, they're gonna play in a lot of close games.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: They have a great offensive line, great running game. They're
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: gonna play teams pretty close. I don't think they're gonna
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: be blowing teams out. Therefore, they're gonna have to maintain
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: this one score game luck, and you know you can't
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: really control that. Um So I do think they'll win
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: ten games this year. I think, actually it's very likely
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: they win ten games. I have that twenty percent of
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the time, but you know, under ten and a half,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: I have this hitting fiftent of the time. Again, this
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: is somebody that's high on the Browns. I love all
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: the move they made, however, just based on their schedule,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: everything evening out, I do like to under here, h
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: that is a sharp play right there. I think that
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: is an incredibly sharp play. Browns just overvalued in the market.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Forget about everything else. Everything you just said corner there overvalued, Simon. Yeah,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Sean's got bigger balls in me. I can't do it.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I was looking at that one for a while too.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: But like you just said, it's scary because they've improved
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: that defense and that was by far the biggest weakness.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: And not that I'm so down on Pittsburgh, but I
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: just like they were unreal last year to start there
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: ward a ten or eleven and oh to start the
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: year I just can't see that from Pittsburgh. Of course
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Baltimore should bounce back, but we've kind of seen the
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: NFL figure it out Lamar a little bit. So it's
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: just terrified for men to take that where I'm already
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: invested in them to when the FC I got them
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: a plus a thousand twin they I didn't do Super
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Bowl because I'm not drinking that much cooling on the
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Browns yet, but I'm investment that so I'm probably just
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: gonna stay away from this total. Aliens have big balls,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Simon co On what else you got? So the other
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: one is the Cowboys under nine and a half. You know,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: they're coming off of a year where they had one
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: of the worst injury lux seasons. With Dak prescott Um
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: having that devastating injury, you know, he might not be
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: acent to start the year, so he could be a
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: bit rusty. Plus he's already hinting that he's not going
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: to run as much, so that's gonna take that element
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: away from his game. So you know, while I think
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: they'll bounce back this year, nine and a half is
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: a pretty big number um, And you know, I don't
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: know if bringing dan Quinn's gonna fix their defense. They
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: had a very unfortunate draft where I thought they were
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: gonna either get J. C. Horne or Patrick Certain and
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: neither one fell to them, so that kind of ruined
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: their draft. They they definitely needed cornerback help. Um. So
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: while I think they're gonna be better this year, nine
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: and a half is a huge number, So I have
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: them going under sixty percent of the time. So I
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: love the under here, and I think it's being beat
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: up just because you know, the Cowboys are a public team. Um,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: you know, people loved about the over, So I'm just
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: taking the value here on the under. Nine and a
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: half is a big number. But also, and I know
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Simon agrees with you on this, I could see them splitting.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: I don't see anyone any team in the NFC is
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: being dominant where you're automatically chalking up two losses for
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys, which makes me scared to bet under a
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: nine and a half when I don't know where the
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: losses are going to come from. Automatically. Yeah, well, I
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: mean this is kind of betting on you know, I
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: already bet on the football team obviously know how good
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be. But I think the Giants. Giants could
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: be sneaky too, So I think just NF the East
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: will pose more problems than people think. But I agree
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: with you. It's not like you can say, um one
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: way or another, who's gonna be dominant division. Obviously the
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Eagles will have some issues, but I can see the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: football team and the Giants certainly giving the Cowboys some
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: fits within the division. Son, then you agree with him, Yeah,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I always always fade the Cowboys are always gonna be
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: overvalued because they're fan base. It's just it's an easy
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: way to make money every year, and when there's there's
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: certain teams where you look them on paper and you go, okay,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of course the Cowboys can keep up with anyone on offense,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: but they can never get stops. And in a team
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: like that, that's always gonna be a fifty fifty in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: every game they go into. They're not really ever gonna
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: be the position of being the dominant team. I just
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: cannot bet a team like that to go over nine
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, I guess the extra game
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: that's one of those where throws a little wrenching it
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: because I had him grated out at eight point four.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: But I'm still like, even after I added the game,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: I didn't cross him over nine. So I'm down the Cowboys.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I just think that coming back off that knee injury,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: like he just said, running for a touchdowns was a
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: huge part of Dak's game. If that's gone, that's a
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: big deal. Now he's passing in red Zonner. He has
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: handed off the Exekie Elliott, So I do think there's
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: value on that under. I love that one of you
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: has a mused named Chad, that being Simon Hunter. One
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: of you has a machine named Chad that being shown
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Corner and you guys are both coming to generally the
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: same conclusions using entirely different methods. Corner, what is your
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: last under? The third team? That is value that has
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: value on the under? Uh, this one feels so easy.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: It feels like a trap. But the Raiders under seven. Um,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: And you know, I do like the moves that made
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: on defense Brian Jagaqway, Casey Hayward and Clinton Jefferson, Um
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Gruss Bradley to to be defensive cordinare But I don't
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: know if that's enough to turn this defense around. They
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: finished thirty one thirty one, and if you can see
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the past three seasons, so that's gonna be a problem.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: And then their biggest strength last year was their offensive line,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: and they decided to bowl that all up and got
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: rid of three of them. Then they brought in Kenyan
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Drake for two years eleven million to back up Josh Jacobs.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: So they made some interesting moves. And you know this division, um,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: and I'm factoring in you know, Aaron Rodgers going to
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: this division at a much higher percent than you guys, um,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: so that's probably adding a little bit more value on
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: the under. But I mean, imagine this division with Patrick Mahomes,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, and you got this at
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: under seven. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't end up going
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: to the Broncos, I still like this. That's why I'm
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: pulling the trigger now. Um. As of now I have, UM,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: you know, the Raiders winning six or fewer games forty
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: six percent at the time and eight or more thirty
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: three percent at the time, So I think, you know,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: seven's a good number, but there's certainly more value taking
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: the under here. I love bet against the Raiders in
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: this division. I think it's I think it's perfect signon
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: using me I know he does. Yeah, I don't even
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: have to waste time on them for from my under ears,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: I um, people are gonna hate it because they think
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I'm a dire Egos fan, but Eagles under man six
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: and a half had a grade out of five point seven.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I just think that too many people are just falling
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: to love with the idea of Jalen Hurts instead of
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: watching the tape and looking at the numbers of what
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: he did last year, where I think he could be
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: a good quarterback, but I just think of him as again,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Eagles took him high up, but it's one of those
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: where it's like a Russell Wilson effect. He would have
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: been a fourth or fifth round quarterback in Russell Wilson exists,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: and I do love the weapons they put around him.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: But the Eagles just have so much dysfunction in that
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: organization right now that I still think that's way too
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: many wins for a team that I just see finishing
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: fourth in that division and going to another terrible team Detroit. Uh.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I know I talked to much. I love them. Week
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: one to pull up an offset that might be just
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, I'll be it. Maybe they'll go one
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: in fifteen or one in sixteen now. But everything I
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: look at Detroit, they just seem like a team that's
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: in full tank mode. And I like what he's doing.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: He's gonna build. He's building up a D line and
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: O line, but the rest of the pieces around those
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: pieces are just terrible. So looking at just the strength
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: of schedule and everything like that, Detroit get into five
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: wins or four and a half wins is going to
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: be very tough. So I have them great out of
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: less than four wins. So I like that Detroit under
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I will say that saying the numbers five wins, six
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: wins in a seventeen game season sounds dramatically easier to
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: achieve than in a sixteen game season. It does. We've
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: seen a shift in the NFL, though. We saw last
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: year where again not we're not saying the Jacks and
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: the Jets were tanking, but let's be serious here, we
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: saw the organization kind of supporting a tank mode for
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: a quarterback. So we've just seen a change in the
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: guard in the NFL. Where guys used to play for pride,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: you don't really see that as much anymore. I mean, yeah,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: there might have weeks where they played for Pride. But
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: these coaches, they can say they're not trying to take
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: these games. And man Nest year was brutal some of
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: these end of games with some of these bad teams.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm not falling for it again, Detroit, I have
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: to take the under. What do you think that one? Sean? Uh, yeah,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm in line with Detroit. I think there's certainly
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: value on the under. This is a team clearly tanking.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: But Simon and you're out one of those people that
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: think because they have Jared Gothic quarterback, they're kind of
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: tank proof. It's gonna be hard for them to tank.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Man I really cannot wait to see him without McVeigh
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: in his year. It's truly gonna be magical. Now he
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: have some meat head coach. What it's gonna be like
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: for golf quarterback in Detroit receivers either Dan Campbell can
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: be an alien because Dan Campbell likes to eat knee caps.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Everyone knows that aliens are also cannibals and so and
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: they feast on the flesh. Uh, Simon, this this is
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: very helpful to me, Sean and and Simon and hopefully
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: to our listeners. I want to transition to our next
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: segment here, you said, you know, in deference to the
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Volume podcast network sponsors fan Duel, you happen to go
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: to FanDuel because you are a good soldier, and you're like, hey,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: what are all the bets I can make on FanDuel
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: for the NFL? Right now? That can totally take advantage
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: of FanDuel. So uh, let's go to our action network
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: take advantage of fan Duel newsdesk. Simon, please tell us
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: what you're seeing right now in the field, Tintin. So again,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: these are crazy long shot upsides. Last year, you would
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: have thought I was crazy if I told you to
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: take green Bay have the best record, just because even
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: like last year, Jad you were debating even taking the
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: over of nine for green Bay. So that's what I mean.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm looking for, is that teams that
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: people are down on that they have the upside. There Saints,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: I love the Saints upside. I have no idea if
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: these quarterbacks are gonna work out. Okay, it could be
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: an absolute disaster, but I saw Drew Breese and had
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: a good quarterback last year lead that team to a
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: great record. So to me, plus three thousand two right
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: now to have best record in NFL on Fandel for
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: the Saints, I think that's really good value in the
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: team that they don't need Payson Hill to be the
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: greatest quarterback ever. They just need him to fit in
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the machine that is the Saints. So all the pieces
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: they have there, I think there's really good value on
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: that number. That's it. Those are the two. Uh No,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: I have a ton um. Okay, So what does corner
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: think of the Saints with the best record? Yeah? I
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: like that and the Packers too, especially again if you
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: think Aaron Rodgers gonna stay to one, Yeah, that's definitely
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: a good beat. And I can get behind the Saints too.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's why of those things. There's a very
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: low floor for that team because we don't know what
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: it's gonna work out, but there's certainly a high ceiling
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: if Jamis Winston figures it out. Um, if you know,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: I think they'll continue using Taysom Hill and his own packages.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: But like, I love the upside on both teams, especially
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: if you think Rodgers gonna stay in green back. Give
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: me one more signment, because then I want you to
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: be able to talk to your best friend Lee buff
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: so I rarely would recommend this, and again this is uh,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: this is on Fandel. You you might be able to
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: find better odds elsewhere, but we won't, Sarah elsewhere the
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to go seventeen and oh, I really do this,
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: but there's certain books that have them at forty to one.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: They have them right now to one to go seventeen.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: And now I get it. It's a stupid bet. I
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: just love it because I just love my homes coming
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: to this year really piste off. I know their division
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: is really tough, FC is really tough, but this everything
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: lines up where I could just see the Chiefs. Even
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: my homes is talking about it. They asked him what
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: his goal is this year. He said his dreams to
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: go twenty and oh that's the goal now for the
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: rest of his life, he wants to go twenty and now,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: so to me, a guy like that motivated, that's the
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: only person I'd be putting that kind of money on.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: So I like the odds right now, Fandel for the
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to go seventeen. And now as you said that,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: no joke. The second you said at I've gotten alert
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: on my smartphone from ESPN that said Mahomes twenty and
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: oh would be awesome, says his goal is for the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to go undefeated and become NFL's first twenty and
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: OH team. Nick right, First things first on Fox Sports
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: and Kevin Wilds the hosts. They're the two panelists there.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: When the schedule came out, We're going back and forth
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: back and forth on the Chiefs and Nick Wright is
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: from Kansas City, uh and and I love Nick write,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: one of the smartest guys in this business. Made an
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: incredible case for the Chiefs to go undefeated, that you
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: could see them getting through the first ten games and
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: maybe their biggest competition might be Dallas late in the season.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Now it's it's honestly, they're the only team on top
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: of my head I can think of that there. They
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: only can lose if they choose to lose, Like, there's
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: no point my Homes could be down fourth team in
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. When I'm holding my Homes Chiefs money line,
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: I'm still not worried yet. It's it's the craziest feeling
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: I have ever with that quarterback. So that's the only
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: reason I'd even give this out because it's such a
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: chalk bet. But again, the way the math works out.
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: Same at Home Place. For twenty years, you're been a
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: grand each year. You only have to hit it once
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: and you can hedge out like we sold Brady in
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl against the Giants. You're gonna have the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: value there to hedge out on this number. So I
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: just think there's good value they're embedding it. Sean, what is?
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: What is? What is Chad say about the Chiefs going undefeated?
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: When you do the simulations, I'm gonna have to run
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Chad after this. Um, it'll take some time to set up,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: but I don't like is not running okay? Um, but yeah,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: things like this, it's hard. You have to factor in
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: sort of um things like that where Patrick Mahomes is
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: saying he wants to go and I would, um, you know,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: boost the odds a little bit. When someone's trying and
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: you know, if they're sixteen and O and they have
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: the number ones he locked up, obviously they're playing their starters,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: so they're gonna try for it. So whatever Chad says,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I had boosted a little bit. So Chad's kind of irrelevant.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Right now. I'm gonna go Simon on this. I think yeah, one, Um,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: you know that's probably worth a few bucks. Chad's never irrelevant, Sean. Now,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Chad's hurt that you said Chads are relevant. So Chad
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: has feelings? Now? No, Well, you know what, that's a
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: great point. Only the Aliens could make a next level
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: point like that. Listen, guys, this is fantastic corner. I
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: think you should stick around for a second. Michael Leeboff
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: jumped on, we know that he was Simon Hunter's first
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: choice for he might be an alien at the Action Network.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: We know that he loves the Islanders more than anything,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: and the Islanders are now tied with the Bruins one
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: one in the Stanley Cup playoffs. He might hate the
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Toronto Maple Leafs and John Tavaris as much as he
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: loves the Islanders. They were knocked out after losing three
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: one lead to the Montreal Canadiens. Michael lebo, what are
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: you doing on this podcast? Our producer Matt Mitchell said, Hey,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: show up at two o'clock and I had to hear
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: about this uh San Diego Chargers offensive line for for
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: six minutes we had it. Rather than continuing to rest
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: on my laurels from what was probably the best sports
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: night of my life last night. Number one, we know
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: you don't like the NFL. It's now the Los Angeles
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Chargers for the past couple of years. Number two, Simon
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Hunter asked a very important question, and I know you're
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: gonna have an opinion on this. Uh, do you believe
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: in aliens? Yeah? See how quick that yes was, Chad.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you it strengthens my argument. I wanted the
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: odds just be like like heavily skewed towards yes, And
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: like sometimes I just think some animals are aliens, like
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: the greenland shark. Do you guys know about greenland sharks?
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: They like swim in the North Atlantic and they can
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: live for like four hundred years. Nobody knew those things
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: existed until, like, you know, maybe a hundred years ago
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: or lesson. So maybe they just kind of dropped down
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: and they're like, all right, we'll just be the We'll
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: just swim around here and watching history unfold in the
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: North Atlantic for four years. I'm with you. I believe
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: there are aliens, full stop. And I'm not afraid to
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: say it. I'm not afraid to admit it. I firmly
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: believe it. I firmly believe it because I said to Simon,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's arrogant to believe that we're the only
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: intelligent form in the universe. But you just made it
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: a odds driven argument, which is interesting. And I love
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: that you decided they weren't coming for harm. They're just
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: sort of dropping in. Well, if they were coming from harm,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: weren't they already have done it, like before our technology advanced?
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Like if they were here, like why wouldn't you just
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: like drop in and like two thousan BC when they
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: were whittling stone or whatever you do to stone. So
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: I assume they're just here to maybe hang out watch
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: them hockey. I once went to a Yankee Red Sox
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: game with my buddy Handsome. We're smoking weed on top
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: of a garage like in the Bronx, and that obviously
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: led to some you know, interesting conversation. And while the
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Yankees and Red Sox were unfolding in froun of Us,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: we were talking about what an alien would think if
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: they had just kind of like landed in the middle
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: of this game, be like, what the hell is going on?
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Why are these there are thousands of these earthlings just
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: watching these other earthlings in uniforms, and why are they
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: why are the coaches wearing the same uniform those don't
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: coaches usually not wear uniforms in this on this planet.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: But then we realized we were talking for like thirty
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: minutes and the people around us, we're probably like, we
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: gotta get these kids away from us and fucking losers.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Handsome as the liquor salesman, right, handsome as the liquor salesman. Yeah, yeah,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: all right. Do you want to talk about the greatest
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: sports night of your life? You want to break it
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: down for people. I think a huge part of being
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: a sports fan is is like reveling in the misery
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: of your rivals. And I think that like anyone who
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: who doesn't understand that is maybe not cut out for it.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Because what happened with the Islanders in with John Tavaras,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: like the Islanders have always been on shaky ground, right,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: so they had a franchise cornerstone. He had always committed
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: himself to the Islanders and said, like he understands the plight,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: like he knows him leaving would have some huge ramifications
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: for the franchise um and could like doom it basically,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: And then he left for the place that we like
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: if he had left to go to the San jos
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: A Sharks, it wouldn't be a big deal, but he
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: like he's from Toronto. The day the Islanders drafted him
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: in two thousand nine, there are articles about how long
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: it would take for Tavares to go to Toronto. He
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: always said they were bullshit and then just basically lied
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: to our faces for whatever it was eight nine years
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: um then goes goes to Toronto. They have a really
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: good team. They haven't won anything since nineteen sixty seven.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: They haven't won a playoff series since two thousand four,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: but their fan base on the media coverage, you'd think
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: that they were, you know, the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs or whatever.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: It's sickening stuff. It's very disturbing. Any every time that
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: they get eliminated from the playoffs in the first round
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: is if it's a holiday. And the fact that the
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Islanders twenty minutes after the Maple Leice got eliminated win
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: and overtime. By the way, the Islanders have now won
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: four playoff series at least four best of seven since
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Tavaris left. He's one zero. So it was a great night.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I was up till five in the morning watching highlights
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: of the Leaves losing watching like I was listening to
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Toronto Sports Radio. I woke up this morning told Alexa
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: to turn on Toronto Sports Radio. She obliged. It was great.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: And the sick thing is like the Islanders had a
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: huge winless night, one of their biggest wins in years.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I haven't even had a chance to to properly celebrate
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: that one because I'm just dancing on the maple leaves
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: grapes for I don't know. I told myself to like
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: eight pm tonight. Playoff hockey is the greatest. It's like
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: the way you talk about Toronto is how I feelbout
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: the Penguins, Like obviously, like Philadelphia the Penguins, that's are
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: like instead arrival, we took care of the Penguins for you,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: exactly like nastional Colisy and ate them up. And I'm
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: all in on the Islanders because of you, obviously, And
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I wrote down that whole series and I took them
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: last night and it's just been a blessing. But man,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: playoff hockey, dude, the ot like I don't know, like
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: like obviously you're a Diard fan. Sweating man. I was
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: literally sweating down my back. That was one of the
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: better hockey games I watched probably these playoffs. My wife
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: is a Bruins fan too, and she she the Bruins
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: came back from three one down, She's like, you don't
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: need to be a brad about it, and I was
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: being complete bratt like I was like not talking to
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: her for a while. She said some a lot of
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: mean stuff about me, but it was all right, like
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I'm mature enough to admit that, but I'm definitely not
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: mature enough to change it. Like, let's playoff hockey. It's
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: life or death. I'm not gonna, you know, be happy
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: for her if the Bruins come back. She's she actually
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: felt so bad for me because of like how pathetic
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I was acting that she started to be like, oh,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: that was a good win for the Islanders, a good job, Like,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I'm happy for you, And if it was she was
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: on the other foot, it would have just been a disaster.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: I think. So casey czekis who scored the overtime winner,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: he might have, you know, saved my marriage, which is
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: I guess good. This podcast has gotten so off the
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: rails that I cannot believe leapoff becomes a surprise guest,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: and we end up talking about hockey. For this long corner,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: you've been awfully quiet. I have nothing to say about hockey.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: This is payback for Leapoff having to listen to me
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: talk about the San Diego Chargers offensive line. Right, So
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: I just thought ticket, I mean, look, here's how the
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: nflc is gonna go. Everybody. There are gonna be a
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: couple of good teams playing each other in the winter.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: One coach is gonna not kick a field goal. Everyone's
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: gonna freak out about it, and then the two two
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: other teams will play in the super Bowl. One of
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: them will win, and that will be it, and we'll
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: start all over again. It all comes down to a
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: time out in a field goal decision every season, and
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I just don't understand how that drama can outweigh what
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: we saw last night at the t D Garden when
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: the Islanders just stopped the Bruins. Listen, that's how we
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: know Leeboff Early is an alien. He doesn't understand American football.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: I understand it, I just don't appreciate it. Really, Leeboff
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Islander series is tied right now, one one before we go,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: give me your handicap of the Islanders chances to win
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup versus where their current odds are. I
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: don't think there's any value like if from a strictly
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: value perspective, right there's no value and backing basically any
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: team right now. But if you're looking for a ride,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: right we want to just hit your wagon to a team,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: I think the Islanders or maybe one of the Canadian
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: teams would probably give you the best ride right now
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: because the or is good. The Islanders play a very
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: physical game. I do think that they're much like there
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: are a lot of models out there that thought the
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Islanders were about thirty three percent or less against the Bruins.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I just think that underrates them. If you want to
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: bet theom right now, like you just bet the series
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: line and just remember, I mean, it's it's right now.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: It's one one, it's a best of five, and three
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: of those games are going to be taking place at
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: the Nassau Coliseum, which um, as you saw at Game
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: six after you denied my invitation, it wasn't even declined
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: like it was more it was more rude than that.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: You denied an invitation to the Closseum, which was really weird.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Because I can't imagine a better environment in sports than
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: what was going on in game six. I'll let you
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: come again if you want. They got Thursday Saturday. I'd
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: suggest coming Saturday. Thursday will be pretty angsty. The best
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: of five where they have home ice advantage. Now like
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: it's it's closer to a coin flip than the odds
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: will suggest, but it's they're still they still should be underdogs.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Saturday is not gonna work for me. That's your loss. Honestly,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: it's really your loss. The catharsis that that you will
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: not get to experiences by celebrating a goal at the
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: NASA call Seue. I'm going to get to a game
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: at the Nassau Call Seume with you. It just won't
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: be Saturday, my own. This is the last year. Yeah,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: they're going to advance, so I'll go in the next round.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Nice attitude. I'm a broken man. Find optimism, believe in
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: Love's try I say something that's going to kind of
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: sound it. Okay, Yeah, I just wanted to talk about
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: you know, it's more day a weekend. A lot of
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: like I have friends who are vets um. A lot
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: of people don't know this, but suicide rate among veterans
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: is crazy high. Even if you're friends on the military.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: Just reach out to people. People are still going through
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: tough times. It's just a good reminder, like you never know,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: so definitely checking on people. It's a lot of a
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: lot of downtime right now, so definitely reach out to friends.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: I love that you said that. That's a great message.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Completely agree with it. Listen, Simon, you're like the heart
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: and the soul and the conscience of this podcast, and
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: so when you say things like that, people should take
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: them seriously. Yeah, you really took my alien theme. You
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: ran with it all shop is pretty impressive. I thought
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: it was fascinating. It's a fascinating conversation. But more more
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: fascinating is that Sean Corner has renamed the most important
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: device in his life not just an engine that powers
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: what he does, but a lot of the engine that
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: powers the Action network and somehow it has now been
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: renamed chat. Think about that. This has been the favorite
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast network. We will be back
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: on Thursday for the Thunderdome addition to Big Thunderdome Addition.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: Until next time, download the podcast from Apple podcast, from Spotify,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast, love you and leave off.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Let's go Islanders.