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Jul 15 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260715 The July 15, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report highlights the current agricultural commodity markets and upcoming weather patterns influencing crop production. Host Todd Gleason discusses a recent surge in wheat futures driven by supply fears following Russian military attacks on Ukrainian ports, particularly Odesa, shifting the focus away from traditional weather factors. In the ag market segment, Greg Johnson notes that Central Illinois crops are generally performing well, prompting farmers to hold out for stronger prices, though fund activity remains neutral to long. Additionally, the program details upcoming regional agricultural events, including University of Illinois Extension field days and webinars focused on soybean breeding and agricultural AI applications. The second half of the program transitions to regional and international ag weather with Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc.. Lerner breaks down the stressful but manageable heat impacts across the northern Corn Belt, noting that while the upper Missouri River Basin faces high temperatures and dryness, areas like the Red River Valley are insulated by recent heavy rainfall. The international segment details a severe and expanding drought in Western Europe, where central France and the UK face massive precipitation deficits threatening summer crops like sugar beets. Conversely, weather conditions remain favorable for crop maturation in the Black Sea region, making the current market volatility strictly a reflection of regional war developments rather than climate failures. 01:21 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing 11:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 15th day of July, 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson at TGM, that’s totalgrainmarketing.com. Wheat futures blasted higher today, not on a production issue, but due to problems taking place again in the Black Sea area. We’ll take that up with him, and then we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. As it happens, the Black Sea is expected to raise a pretty good wheat crop this year. We’ll talk about that with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. We will also look at the weather in the northwestern part of the Corn Belt, where expectations have been that the heat will be a real issue for Minnesota, North Dakota, and parts of South Dakota. Drew Lerner will help us try to figure out what that really means as we make our way through this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. That is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 01:21 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson now joins us from TGM. He’s at Total Grain Marketing at the elevator here in Champaign County. Hi, Greg. Thanks much for being with us. It’s a little up day in the marketplace. At least as you and I are talking, I’m on my way to Kansas City, so just as a reminder, that’s why we don’t have an update of the numbers for the afternoon and the actual settlement prices. Have farmers changed their tune about whether this price is worthwhile or not yet? Greg Johnson: The crops in Central Illinois look pretty good. Obviously, we’ve got some drowned-out spots and some variability, but in general, farmers are confident enough that they’re going to have something to sell that they will now focus on rewarding the market anytime it rallies and trying to sell a little bit of corn and beans into that strength. We are seeing that strength today being provided by Russia. They are responding to some of the attacks that Ukraine has been inflicting on them. Russia is bombing the ports of Odesa, and that is disrupting grain flows and fertilizer flows out of the port. Wheat prices, as a result, have been up 35 to 40 cents today, and that strength in wheat has spilled over into corn. Corn has been up anywhere from 5 to 9 cents, and beans have been up 5 to 10 cents. The corn and the beans really don’t have a story on their own. The weather looks fairly non-threatening; as it is every summer, you’ve got some areas that are dry and could use some rain, and you’ve got other areas that have plenty of rain or too much rain. This is not a weather-driven rally today. This is more of a supply-driven concern with Russia attacking the ports in Odesa. Farmers feel a little bit more comfortable that they’re going to have something to sell. It’s just a question of what price they decide to let loose of some of the old crop and new crop corn and beans. Beans are only a dime off of contract highs. Corn is getting back finally into the upper half of the range, but we’re not near the old highs yet. At least we’ve gained some of it back. With farmers feeling pretty good about their crop prospects here—a few more rains in July and August—farmer selling has picked up a tick this morning as a result of the Russian bombing. Todd Gleason: This comes on top of a sustained campaign that Ukraine has had in the Sea of Azov, which is shutting off wheat exports from Russia through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov combined. That could cause a real issue. It feels like that might be the one for the summertime to really watch. I’m not quite sure that’s the case yet, because weather can always step in at any point, but the last time around when this war between Ukraine and Russia first started, wheat was the harbinger of the issues. I doubt that this time around it’s going to be that big a problem because it appears we have a pretty good way to move crops in different channels across the planet. Maybe you have better insight or more concerns about what issues could take place. Greg Johnson: I think what we’ll have to keep track of is basis levels for actual cash wheat in the Middle East. The futures market is one thing, but if somebody really needs a boatload of wheat and we see cash basis levels 10 to 15 dollars a ton more than what the Board of Trade price is, that’s indicative that wheat is having trouble getting through. We’re already seeing that in the crude oil market. Spot oil is probably trading 10 to 11 dollars a barrel higher than what it’s trading on the futures exchange, so that’s another indication that things are tight in places. Usually, that works itself out, but in the short run, we could see some increased demand as people want to just get a hold of the actual physical commodity, whether that’s fertilizer, wheat, or oil. Sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Todd Gleason: You’ll have to help me out. If I recall, Black Sea wheat is traded at the CME Group in Chicago, and you should be able to look at some of that, I suppose? Greg Johnson: Again, that’s the futures price, but the cash price is more person-to-person. If you trade something on the CME, you can take delivery in August or September, but if you need it this week or this month, just being long futures really doesn’t insure you a supply. That’s when basis comes into play. If we see cash basis levels dramatically higher than the futures price, that’s indicative that the end users are concerned about getting their supply. I don’t know that that’s the case yet, but that’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Todd Gleason: We will keep watching that. I know you will as well. Do soybeans look as good as the corn in our area? Greg Johnson: No, they just don’t handle the wet weather near as well. The corn is farther along. For the most part, even though we planted beans earlier, the beans just aren’t as tall as the corn, and I think the corn can handle some wet weather a little bit more than the beans can. We saw the weekly crop ratings drop another two points for soybeans here in the state of Illinois, whereas corn stayed steady. Granted, at 58%, it is relatively low, but at least it didn’t decline, whereas the bean number declined another two points. It certainly feels like the bean crop isn’t as good as what we’d like it to be, but if we get some rain in August, I think we’ll be fine. Todd Gleason: What else are you watching at this time in the marketplace? Greg Johnson: The funds have been extremely short on corn. Just last week, they bought back their short position, and they have a slight long position in corn. Going into the most critical four to six weeks of the growing season, it’s unusual for the funds to be short going into the pollination and grain fill stage of the production cycle. Will the funds add to their longs or will they just basically be content to be even on corn? They’ve got a very large long soybean position, but corn is the question mark. Will they get long corn or will they just stay basically neutral? Todd Gleason: Do you have any answers for that yet? Greg Johnson: I don’t know. I’ve been doing this for 35 years and I can’t outguess the funds. They have their algorithmic trade formulas and I don’t know what trips their trigger. I don’t know that anybody does, but we’ll certainly keep an eye on that. It would be nice if the funds would decide to get a little bit longer on corn because I think that would be an opportunity for farmers to make some catch-up sales, especially on this new crop. Todd Gleason: Last week we were talking maybe 20 days out, or at least at the end of July. If the fundamentals really didn’t change, that would be where elevators began to look forward, thinking about space, and basis might begin to break. Are you still in that thought process? Greg Johnson: We haven’t figured out for sure what size crop we have yet. It’s looking good. The offset to that though is that there is demand. China has been buying a few boatloads of beans here and there. Corn exports have been relatively good, and it looks like there’s going to be a fall export program. So, the demand is there. Obviously, we won’t have enough demand to offset a big crop, but if we just have an average crop or slightly below average crop, then we might have enough storage space and basis levels may not need to weaken a whole lot. The jury is still out on that, but at least there are positive things that could influence the basis to not get any weaker. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again next week. Greg Johnson: All right, thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Greg Johnson. He’s with TGM, Total Grain Marketing, at the elevator here in Champaign County. A couple of things to keep in mind: tomorrow, there are two events. One of them is an online webinar, which I’ll tell you about in a moment. The other is the Illinois Soybean Association’s Agronomy Farm Field Day that’s being held outside of Heyworth at 3:00 tomorrow afternoon through 6:15. You can still sign up for that one, or at least show up. Check it out on our website in the calendar of events. There will be a couple of people there from the University of Illinois, including Iliana Monteverde, whom you heard last week talking about soybean breeding and the importance of the breeding program here on campus, as well as some of the traits you can probably find in your fields today and next spring. Connor Sible will also be there talking about using tissue tests. You can register and find all the details on our website at willag.org in the calendar, or check out the Illinois Soybean Association website at ilsoy.org. The other item tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. is the Enhancing Farm Efficiency and Sustainability with AI webinar. You can find more details for that hour-long webinar on the farmdoc website at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu under events. 11:59 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hello, Drew, thank you very much for being with us today. Drew Lerner: Thanks for the opportunity to share my wares. Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about your wares. I want to discuss the northwestern part of the Corn Belt. It has been dry, and there is concern in Nebraska, the two Dakotas, and parts of Minnesota. Looking at the Crop Progress report on Monday from the USDA, the number for North Dakota was 71% good to excellent for corn. Regardless, the corn crop was in really good condition there going into some high temperatures. What I want to know is where these high temperatures took place, how dry it is across the state, and whether the Red River Valley is different than the more western part of North Dakota. Drew Lerner: I agree with the USDA ratings. This heat and dryness just set in over the last week, so I wouldn’t expect to see a lot of deterioration, especially not in the eastern parts of the Dakotas or western Minnesota. Most of the excessive heat occurred in Montana, central and western parts of South Dakota, and southwestern North Dakota. Those areas have seen a steady decline in crop conditions. The spring wheat rating in Montana was way off. A lot of crops to the west are taking it on the chin; it was already dry in Montana and parts of South Dakota before we got started with the heat. I think you’re going to find the impact showing up in next week’s USDA numbers, and probably the following week too if we do not get rain. It looks doubtful at the moment. The next 10 days are looking poor for getting rain across eastern Montana, a big part of North Dakota, and central and western South Dakota. You mentioned isolating the Red River Valley, and I think that’s smart because it’s a different world there right now. Conditions are much better. It hasn’t been exceptionally hot; the warmest temperatures have mostly been in the lower 90s, and the moisture profile hasn’t been too bad. Right before the heat wave arrived, the northeast and east-central parts of South Dakota and some counties over the line in Minnesota got a two-to-five-inch rain event. That carried the crops well through this initial period of hot and dry weather. It’s going to take another week to a week and a half before we do any harm in those areas, especially since the hottest weather is still going to be in the Missouri River Valley rather than the Red River Basin. We’ll hang in there fairly well in that region, but we do have 10 days of 90 and lower 100-degree temperatures just to the west, which will be stressful. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the Missouri River Valley as it stretches through South Dakota, Nebraska, parts of Iowa, and along the top of Missouri. Drew Lerner: The middle Missouri River Basin area is probably also in favorable shape, whereas the upper part of the Missouri is feeling the heat and dryness. The middle Missouri is certainly drying down. We’ve had issues with dryness in Nebraska frequently over the course of the summer and spring. Moisture profiles are a little off in some areas, and it wouldn’t take much of a hot, dry pattern to push some crops over the edge. We need to watch that region, but as of today, the situation is stressful but not a problem. With another 10 days of not much moisture, we’re probably going to see that area continue to dry down. When you look at the August outlook, a couple of things will happen. We’re going to have a trough of low pressure over the eastern part of North America trailing frontal systems into the central United States. That will attract monsoon moisture from the Rocky Mountains and pull it into the central plains. In August, we’ll likely shave down the driest areas, isolate them more on South Dakota, and allow Nebraska, parts of Kansas, and western Iowa to do better. Todd Gleason: We’ve talked a lot about the far western part of the Corn Belt. What about the center part of the Corn Belt—Iowa, Illinois, Indiana? Drew Lerner: The moisture profile in those areas is pretty good at the moment. The biggest thing that runs in the back of my mind is that we had excessive rain and flooding earlier in the season, and it was cool, which is not a good environment for the best-yielding corn. Soybeans also need drier and warmer conditions. Even though the crop is looking good, it’s probably not the best crop, and we’ll need to add a little heat and give those wetter-biased areas a chance to dry down. We don’t want to get too hot and dry, but I don’t see anything like that happening in the central or eastern Midwest. Todd Gleason: The Crop Progress reports on Monday showed that the eastern part of the Corn Belt actually was not in as good a condition as many of the western states. That surprised me to some extent, particularly with Illinois lagging behind Iowa and Minnesota. Now, turn your attention to a place that continues to have problems. Can you update me on crops in France and Western Europe? Drew Lerner: Absolutely. France and the UK have had less than half of normal rainfall since the beginning of April. In the most recent 90-day period, the central two-thirds of France has had 25% of normal rainfall or less. Throw in the temperatures—from mid-June to early July, it was crazy hot and very stressful. The only thing that helped the crops in France was the fact that the winter was good and we had plenty of moisture. Coming into spring, there was no excessive heat, and the winter crops performed okay. We did lose yield, but it could have been a much bigger disaster had they encountered heat like they did last year in the spring. The summer crops are a whole different ballgame. The one crop that’s going to be hurt most seriously in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands is sugar beets. They will be notably reduced in size this year. If this pattern continues—and right now it looks like the UK is advertised to go two weeks without much moisture—it will be an issue. France is going to get a little bit of rain today into Saturday morning. Central areas will pick up an inch or a little bit more, but then it goes dry again for the following week. It’s a temporary reprieve, but no major fix. Todd Gleason: Checking in on the Black Sea area. Futures in Chicago are pushing wheat higher today on an increase in violence between Ukraine and Russia, particularly relating to ports and seagoing ships. What do you see at this point related to the crops and the weather? Drew Lerner: From a weather perspective, it’s been a great year in much of Ukraine and Russia’s southern region. There was good moisture in the spring, and there hasn’t been excessive heat. It’s a little dry now, but this is crop maturation and harvest season, so it’s a good scenario from a wheat, rapeseed, and barley perspective. For summer crops, it is important that we pick up a little more moisture, but I don’t see this as a big issue; it is about the war. The spring wheat and sunseed production areas in the New Lands and northern Kazakhstan have had an amazing amount of rainfall this season. There’s probably some wet weather disease there and perhaps a little loss in yield potential because it continues to rain, but the primary production areas in southern Russia are in better shape. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it a lot. Have a great day. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated; he’s in Kansas City. He joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. While you’re there, scroll down and find the latest information from agricultural economists, crop scientists, and animal scientists right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. In the calendar, you’ll find all the agronomy days and many other events taking place this summer across Illinois in which the University of Illinois Extension is involved. I’m Todd Gleason.