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Cadillac Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems, going clear, the lift up? What's up everyone?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tembo back for another
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: edition of Leverage Lane here on the ship at Nation
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: YouTube Station. Got my guy Alex Blinkel here back in
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: the booth with me as always, we're gonna break it
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: all down. Had a week off myself, a little family
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: vacation for the Zurich. But we're back in and we
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: got a nice little run here. We got the Cadillac
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Championship we'll be talking about today. We'll be doing it
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: as usual, breaking it down from a single entry. Mmy
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: leverage perspective, looking at the common builds, how we can
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: leverage those. Gonna talk a bunch about some good stuff
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: with course fit and about courses. When you have a
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: course like this where people haven't played it for so long,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: how do we handle that. Alex is gonna help us
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: break that down here on the show as well. I
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: know everybody wants to get those takes, so I'm excited
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to hear that part also, and then you know, just
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: going through it all. We've got a few other things playning,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: but Alex, I'll bring you in first man. A week
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: off at the Zurich. We're back in it. We got
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: the Cadillac Championship, then the Truest, then we got the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: second major of the year with the PGA Championship, amongst
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: many other good tournaments. We got a good little run here,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: my friend, how you been?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is fun.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: I do really like this golf course, so I think
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be fun to watch this golf course again.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: I do wish that, like we had a cut, obviously,
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: I do wish that the next couple weeks weren't like
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: so identical, and not just not just in the fact
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: that we're gonna get basically like the exact same field
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: back to back weeks, but it's back to back courses that,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: at least on paper, should really reward distance, should really
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: reward driving as a whole. So it is going to
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: feel like next week we're solving the exact same puzzle
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: as we solve this week, but at least there is
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: the added uncertainty of, well, we don't know how this
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: course is gonna play the way we do know how
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Quill Holla will test them.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Side note on the culture piece, And it's not even
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: like a shot or a joke. I'm just curious, Like
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: obviously saw a lot of stuff happen while I was
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: away and we were away on this with like the
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: live golf situation, if like signature events exist because of that, right,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I mean pretty much that was the plan to like
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: how do we solve this, and it did not solve it.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody likes this. The players have talked
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: about it, even like on from that front. We don't
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: get to speak on their perspective, but just they've voiced
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: it enough publicly that it's a thing. These events aren't
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: spaced out, Like that's the problem with them too. Like
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: even if you are gonna keep these around and you
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: want to make this there the way your league works,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: it's like, why don't we have any of these later
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: in the season if you want to like make these,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: you're not really in the beginning they said we're gonna
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: make signature events. We're gonna every year is gonna be
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: a different sort of run. Besides the obvious, it's like
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: that hasn't really been the case, Like it's they haven't
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: moved too much around. So do you have any just
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: take do you think these hold long term or do
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: you think they take it up a bit and move
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: them around. What do you think really ends up happening
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: to these signature signature events if and the likely when
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: of live kind of changing gears or at least you know,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: maybe not folding up completely, but something where it becomes
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: less relevant.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Well, it sounds like we already have the answer.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: It sounds like Rolap has already kind of told us that, yeah,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: we're we're going to do away with these small field,
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: no cut events, and everything is going to be Everything's
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: going to be kind of the same structure, which is like,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: it's not what we think of right now as a
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: full field. It seems like it's going to be you know,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: one hundred and ten hundred twenty guys, not the one
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty that we see sometimes. But that to
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: me is just going to be a lot better. So
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm very excited for that. And what what I
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: don't know yet and what I hope we get is like,
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: obviously that probably does not mean that all of the
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: stars are playing every single week, so it's it does
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: seem like we're going to get the natural variance from
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: one week to the next that we have like this
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: week right where there are some of the best players
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: that aren't in the field, and so the top of
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: the you know, the DraftKings pricing is going to look
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: different from one week to the next.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: But then hopefully we also get.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: A lot of turnover in what the bottom half of
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: each field looks like where you know, maybe it's because
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: the exemptions into the event changed quickly, and like you know,
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: the way we have the next ten, the swing five
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: or whatever it is getting into signatrevents right now, maybe
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: there's like a you know, a next fifty that is
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: consistently updating from one of ends to the next. So
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: I think and I'm hopeful that we're going to get
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: much more diversification of fields in the coming years, which
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: is great. And then obviously the huge thing, and the
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: far more important thing is that we're just going to
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: get the fuller field with a cut again and golf will.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Be back for do you have asked perspective? That's huge, right,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: we want that. That's like for us, and we talk
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: about all the time on here. We got a bunch
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: of good questions coming in already. If you guys can
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: put your questions in here, we are going to have
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: a bit of a little giveaway in a second, I'll
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: get the marketing out of the way quickly from this side.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: But just all access special if you guys are looking
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: to joint ship at Nation is on right now half
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: price for your first month, So just to note that quickly.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: If you were to go to Join the Nation and
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: click single sport for golf right now, it would be
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: fifty nine a month, or seventy nine with the optimizer.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: If you go back to where I just was and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: you want to join the Nation right now, you can
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: get all access with Sabersim the ninety nine dollars plan
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: for less than the non access plan with Sabersim for
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the golf only. So if you want to check it out,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: don't need a code, you just go to the site
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: and click that link. But I bring this up because
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: there is a gentleman, mister a one Lighty, who I
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: came second to at the Masters for one hundred k.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: He took the other one hundred on top for two hundred.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So congrats to Lighty. We had a big week there.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: We have another major upcoming, but he wants to start
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: things off and give away a couple months months all access.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: So for your questions here, we're gonna answer them live.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: That's what we do on the show. It's meant sort
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: of evergreen for the twenty thirty minutes and tie in
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: a lot to theory and this will be very valid
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: for this particular week when we're talking about this course,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: and like I said, Alex is gonna break down. What
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: do you do when you have a course like this?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: We haven't seen it in ten years, and people are
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: gonna reference Adam Scott and we'll tie Woods is not here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: He won this in thirteen. People will be here this week.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So and what what would their prices have been back then?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Like Tiger Woods could have been Scottie Price back then,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Dustin Johnson could have been Scottie Price in this field
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: back then, all those factors. But lady will be giving
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: away the money and I will say, if you want
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to do it when if you're not watching this live,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: it's for afterwards. Leave us a good comment for future
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: topics that you want us to discuss during this evergreen
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: period of leverage. Lane obviously shows gonna be here to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: stay every week on this channel ten thirty am Eastern.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So these topics really do help us sort of formulate
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: what you guys actually want to hear us talk about
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: in the beginning, and if you're watching this on replay,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: if you're live and you want to come back later,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: we do time stamp it right in the bottom, so
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: you don't have to like, I don't care about that stuff.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Just get to the get to the chock build, get
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: to the common build. That's fine, you'll have to do
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: it when we get there. But we like to go
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: live for this segment, So Alex, I'll go back to
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: you here. You mentioned one thing that's key to about
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the fields, and we'll get to it, because's gonna we're
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: gonna have a conversation about Scotty. The pricing change a
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: little bit, the board, but like the the M in
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: maclroy now seems to stand for major, and you know,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: you know, they make fun of him because he originally
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: said all the good players should play in these events
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: and now he's missing them. And I think he already
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: committed for next week, so we'll see him back. But
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: it's part of that scheduling factor too, right, you can
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: only go to so many of these in a row,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: back to back to back, and like Scotty, I don't
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: know if I don't think he's playing next week. I
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: don' think we're going to see Scotty in between, are we.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: I think that's right, and I think it it just
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: gets back to the idea that, like the schedule just
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: doesn't really make sense the way they did it, because
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: at this point in time, all of the best players
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: in the world are thinking about one thing. It's how
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: do I get my game in the best shape possible
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: so that I can win it around the mank in
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: the PGA Championship, And every single player is going to
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: have a different idea of how they want to ramp
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: up for that event. Some aren't going to want to play,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: you know, three four weeks in a row. Some aren't
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: going to want to play the week prior. Some are
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: going to want to play the week prior, but not
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: the one before that. And so it they just left
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: themselves open to the to this possibility where a lot
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: of the best players in the world, we're gonna purposely
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: take off a signature event because of the way they schedule.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: And you still get great players, like you know, someone
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: who wants to see Rory. It's unfortunate, but you get
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: to see Scotty and whoever else you want to put
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in that echelon. It's like, it's not like when you
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: go to a you know, Raptors Lakers game in Toronto
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: and it's like the only time they come to Canada.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: You're like, I want to see Lebron, Like oh wait,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Lebron's not even coming or he's not playing in this game.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: It's load management. Whenever you're like, oh, it's my kid's
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: only chance to see this guy and it doesn't end
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: up happening. It's not like that. So Evan has some
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: great questions coming in. I'll hit a quick one for you.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I'll let you start off with this one. I want
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: to add to his other one that I think I
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: can you elaborate on a bit further from some stuff
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I've talked with people about lately. But this is a
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: common thing that comes up because we do talk on
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: this very show about like what is the Chalk build?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: What is the this week? And be like what is
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the chalk Scotty build? Because there's like a version of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the Scottie build that's more popular, and there's probably the
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: cam Young versions that are the most popular my guess,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. But what is your definition here of this?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: When it comes to PGA dfs and then he does
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: bring up he's kind of caught onto it. Like with
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: the price range, the slate dependent certain ownership percentages, but
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: there is a difference, like when Tommy Fleetwood is fifteen
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: percent at ten k, but the guys above and below
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: him are all thirty percent. He's fifteen percent, which is
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: much higher on than the majority of the field, but
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: he's really not chalk for that range and that et cetera,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Do you have different thoughts on this or
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: where you out on this question?
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of a combination of the two where
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: I think the wrong ownership does matter, but it only
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: matters in such a sense that like number one, as
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: you just kind of alluded to, the player has to
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: stand out in his price range to be chalk, and
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: it doesn't mean he has to be the most popular
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: in the range. It could be that, like you know,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: there are four or five really chalky guys in a
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: specific price range, but you're still then going to see
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: guys around them that are significantly lower. So like as
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: I look at our ownership right now, you know we
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: have Min Wu standing out at eighty six hundred, he's
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: twenty percent. We also have you know Colin Morikawa at
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: eighteen percent? I mean I don't consider Morikawa the same
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: level of chalk as min will leave, even though they're
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: very similar in raw ownership. Why because Min Wu is
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: the most popular in his range and Morikaw is less
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: popular than Cam Young who's four one hundred above. He's
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: less popular than got Up, who's a little bit cheaper.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: So that's a major key. But the reason I say
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: that we also do have to consider the raw ownership
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: itself is because as you go down the board and
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: you find, you know, like a Jordan Smith might be
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: the most popular in the six k range, but he's
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: going to be twelve percent, So do we consider him
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: chalk Maybe a little bit, But he's not popular enough
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: such that him failing is going to dramatically affect like
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: not six for six percentage this week since there are
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: no miscuts, but it's not gonna him failing will not dramatically,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: you know, change the score necessary to win this week
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: or anything like that. And so therefore I don't consider
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: him to be chalk the way that I do someone
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: at twenty percent, because when someone at twenty percent fails,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: it does kind of change the entire landscape of the slate.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'm gonna do a better job moving forward.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Like obviously you just said that better than I can
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: set myself. So I'm like, I'm good with that. But
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: when there's points to add on our thoughts, I think
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: that's what people say, like we don't need to both
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: describe it, and you did an excellent job, So I'll
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: leave it mostly at that, but I will just say
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: one part that I'll add on is I think a
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: lot of people worry about defining chalk and the percentage
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of it versus how do you decide what to do
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: with chalk, which is much more important? And like it.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: You know, our guy, Kyle says down here like over
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: a shipper nation, shut to our guy, a big guy
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: in the sky, degenerate seventy five, who's got there? The
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: goat says, you know, the donkey chock tag is relative
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: to the player's priced around them. So yes, Jordan Smith
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: would get a donkey chok tag because not many around
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: him would be twelve percent. But again, another thing that
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: people always forget that DJ said, we don't play donkey chok,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: except when we do, you do play it. Still, it's
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: how do you play it, and you've done a great
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: job of this in the past, talking about like okay,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: but now how high is Jordan Smith in Scotty lineups
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: because he makes them work at sixty eight? Or how
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: many people say okay, I got my cheap and Jordan
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Smith now let me go right up to the top
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: in Scottie. Well, that's a game changer from a comminatorial
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: ownership perspective, so you don't just need people always say, oh,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: you know min Wu chalk got there or whatever it was,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and it's like they're so mad about it. It's like, yeah,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: but that person played min Wu as their last guy in.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Everybody else had him as their fourth guy in, and
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: it's like such a difference. It was a balanced build
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: that finished out on a seventy eight hundred or seventy
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: six hundred dollars min Wu on whatever week it is,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: and that you could have got there in different ways.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: So love that question. Evan did have another one. I
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: just want to chime in on this quickly, but said,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: can you define the roster building terms of separator high
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: probability play is a separator under a certain percentage? Owe also,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: how many separators do you need? Based on the field size.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Typically I'm gonna speak just more to the latter part
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of this only because and you could speak moorder after.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: But I'll just note, like, if we knew the answer
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to that, we would just do it on every lineup.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: It's like in baseball, if you knew it was five
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: threes that you needed. And by the way, I don't
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: think that's the case from your research in your discord.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I've been following along and you do an incredible job
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: over there. If you guys aren't in Alex's discord, make
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: sure you go check that out. A ton of sharp
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: people in there, and just some really cool stuff that
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Alex is doing on his own, stuff with data and
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: claude and getting involved and mixing it up. So appreciate
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: that side of things, but just noting it. It's like,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: if you really knew that five threes were the answer,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: you would just run one hundred and fifty five threes
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: and call to day. And some people do that, I'm not,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: you know, teach their own I'm just saying we don't know.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: And all I'll add to it is in golf is
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: you are on the right track. But like thinking about
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: it and then framing it up. And that's the concepts
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: that we always talk about with you over at chip
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: A Nation, FTN Mastermind, your discord, all these different things
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that we haven't do. You could see links below if
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: you want to check these things out. But just noting it.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: It's like leaving money on the table, whether it's building
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: with a different construction, you're fading popular ranges. I Aloulds
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: say it's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: That's true, but also you say it's not just who
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: you're playing, it's who you're not playing. If you're playing
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: popular nine K guys, but you don't have Scotty, you
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: don't have Cam Young, you don't have Jordan Smith, you
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: don't have Hoguard, you could still be fading five to
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: six of the top own guys, right. And then there's
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: other factors. So there's a bunch of different levers that
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: you can pull to help yourself separate. Typically people will
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: look at it and say you need less of those,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the smaller the field is, which also can be true
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: and for sure is, but I'm saying you also some
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: people play a strategy, myself included at times where I've
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: talked with this, but in satellites. I'll boat race the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: thing I'm playing to win or lose, like I'm not
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: often going to you know, like the a couple weeks
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: ago actually at the RBC Heritage I had to follow
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: up won a Fantasy Golf World Championship seat and people
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: are like, wow, you didn't even swept the playoff, right,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: because it's that's my partial luck like how it all
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: shook out. But I'm saying the way I'm building and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: playing is typically gonna be to like win this thing.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tighten up a lot in a winner
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: take all because I believe it still needs, you know,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: typically a really good score to get the job done.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: So do you want to add on to any of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: this stuff? I just kind of wanted to point that
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: out for Evan because he asked a couple good questions here.
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, in terms of how to define these like if fortunately,
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: their definition is pretty much just you know, what what
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: the what the title suggests, and so high probability play
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: very simply is just someone who's like lead to succeed
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: and more likely to succeed than most of the players
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: around him from a price standpoint. And then separator also
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: like this is another one where you don't even have
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: to think about like the fact that this is a
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: quote unquote defined term. It just what does it mean?
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: And in order to separate, there are two ways a
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: player can separate. Number One, he separates from his competition
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: by putting up a really big score and so he's
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: literally separating by score relative to his competition. And then
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: the second aspect of separation is that he's helping you
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: separate from your competition, and he does that by number
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: one getting the big score, and then number two doing
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: it where he's not doing it for a large portion
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: of the field. If forty percent of people have the
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: guy with the separating score, that doesn't make him a
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: separator because you still have to beat forty percent of
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: the field. So it's not about like a specific ownership percentage, right,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: It's not that at sixteen percent he's not a separator.
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: At fourteen percent he is. It just scales. So the
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: lower owned he is, the more capable he is of
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: being a separator. The higher owned he is, the harder
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: it is for him to separate. And it works as
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: a sliding scale too, by the way, right, where the
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: more owned he is, the higher the score he has
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: to get to actually create separation. So someone at four
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: percent can give you, like a you know, a top
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: twenty finish, and if no one else in that price
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: or ownership range has a top twenty finish, then he
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: can be a separator. But if he's really really popular,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: if there are other guys in his price range who
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: do well, now you don't need a top twenty finish.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Now you need a top ten finish.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: And so it's just like a big giant sliding scale
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: in kind of all those ways. And so similar point
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: to the one Tama made, like it's always and I
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: think this is just generally true, try and stay away
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: from like rigid definitions of things where okay, at fifteen
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: percent like that that's the turning point, that's when a
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: guy becomes chalk or something like that. It's all a
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: sliding scale. It's all relative to the guys around them.
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: It's all relative to the field in general.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: And we've talked with that great point that you just
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: made two in the term a couple of weeks ago,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: when somebody had asked about do you guys use total
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: ownership for your lineups? Like you just if you force
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: yourself into eighty five I get it's probably solid long term,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: it probably is how a lot of your lineup would
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: shake out if you're using contest sims, ETCETERA. Said, I
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: get that, but also if you do that and just
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: force yourself into this bracket, it's like you could be
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: building and missing out. You could be blocking yourself out right.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: You can. You can lock yourself out of a build.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: That happens in NFL Showdown all the time. Like people say, like,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do forty eight five, so I'm for sure
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: unique because I want to have like the limited number uniques.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: But there's actually amazing lineups that are like forty nine
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: to six that come out and are still super unique,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: not duped by more than like three other people, and
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: that you could still win six figures with that lineup.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: But you have no chance. If you just block yourself
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: at forty eight five, you will have one hundred and
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: fifty more unique lineups in that portfolio, probably than most
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: versus the average. I should say, like using a portfolio
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: that's not doing that. But that's why when someone's like, oh,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I got one hundred and fifty lineups and they're all unique,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: and I go, look like, how the hell did you
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: do that, Oh, you capped at forty six thousand and
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you played for like the chance that it goes this
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: way for you, that's gonna be a long wait possibly,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: but yes, if it does pay off and you are right,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: you can really get paid off. So that's to each
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: your own. That's more of a personal strategy. Real quick,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Aaron just adds up, this is like again, some weeks
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: we spend more time on as someone who don't, but
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: we do have Matt Gannon who does go with the
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: actual boots on the ground, and he will be there
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the next three weeks in a row, including the PGA Championship,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: So he's gonna be on the ground here this week.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Heredys isn't done. More on that in the second. He'll
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: be at Truest next week for the same thing, and
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: then he'll be at PGA Championship on the site. It's
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: big for this one will be a segue into Alex's
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: topic here in a minute. He does have full coarse
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: weather notes from what he's seeing around it, and then
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: this week, because we haven't seen this for so long,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: it's I think awesome. He did a hole by hole
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: for everything and wrote it out hole by hole for
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: exactly what you're seeing, like what might be different where
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the water is at what it's all broken down where
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: it's very succinct. It's not like something like oh I
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: got to read a two page novel or a full
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: on blog. No, it's there like I can fit in
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: on my one monitor to get the key points. So
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: if you want to check it out, like I said
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the promos there on shimmer nation dot com, I'm not
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: gonna keep pressing, but just noting he does have all
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: of this accounted for, which is valuable, specifically this week
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: and then this afternoon. It's a member's only show, but
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: he hops on and answers all the members questions live
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: on top of this stuff and wants to add that in.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: It could be helpful to you there, Alex, anything else
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: you want to hit on? Man? If not, I do
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: want to get to this topic right away because I
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: think it's a strong one. You had messaged me yesterday.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: I said I couldn't say enough good things about it,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: but it was like, how to deal with the course
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: we don't have recent data from like I talked about.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: I know there's Dean Burmester and then the live guys
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: that got the job done here, you know, and people
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: will say sure, but like if you go back, a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: lot of people are looking twenty sixteen and before like
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: that Adam Scott went in twenty sixteen and then you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: had like Rose and I think it was like Rose,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: DJ Tiger and maybe Deck ye I can't remember, but anyway,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: it looked like a twenty thirteen Masters million maker winning
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: lineup is basically what it would have looked like. But
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I'll let you talk on this topic.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: Well, it's it's really interesting because it's a very unique situation, right,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: Like we've had plenty of events where we're playing a
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: course that we haven't seen before, and so we don't
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: have data, and so we're all kind of speculating about
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: what's going to matter what's not, and that speculation leads
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: to certain narratives that get picked up. Like last year
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: at the TBC Toronto, you know, the whole field was
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: in on Okay, this is a long course.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Distance is going to be what matters.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: I looked at the course, I thought, you know, it
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: kind of looks like an accuracy course to me, even
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: though it's long, and had a really good week just
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: playing into that narrative. So sometimes it's literally just trying
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: to find what people are wrong about. But this is
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: a unique case because we actually at one point had
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: some really robut data on this golf course, and we know,
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: like beyond a shadow of a doubt, that this used
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: to be a bomber's golf course. It used to be
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: the case that distance mattered a ton on this golf course,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: and distance translated more than any other skill set on
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: this golf course. But the question is is that it's
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: still going to do that, Is it's still going to
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: reward distance in that way all these years later with
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: the key being number one, Like, the golf course could
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: have changed a little bit, conditions could change a little bit,
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: The way they have the course set up might be
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: a little bit different.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Most importantly, the players have evolved.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: The players are a lot longer than they used to be,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: and so sometimes like Philadelphia Cricket Club, I think, is
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: a really good example of this, when I played in
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: the State Open. You know, my level of distance was
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: a huge advantage because it meant that a lot of
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: those bunkers, those fairway bunkers, could be carried, and that
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: makes it play a lot wider than it is. But
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: then the PGA Tour players get on that golf course
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: and there and like you know, seventy five percent in
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: the field is carrying those bunkers. So distance isn't the
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: same separating skill set obviously as it is in a
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: Pennsylvania Open. But the same kind of concept can be
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: applied here this week, which is distance used to matter
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: a ton back then. But back then the average carry
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: discs this was probably like two sixty five to seventy.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Now the average carrying distance might be two ninety ninety five, right,
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: And so are we going to see the same distance
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: separation that we saw back then? My inclination is to
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: say no, I think this is gonna be a golf
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: course that tests every aspect of a players game. And
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: if you want, we can actually take take a look
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: at some holes, because I do think like one of
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: the one of the thoughts that I've I've heard a
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: lot of one of the points that I've heard brought
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: up a lot about this golf course so far this
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: week is that there's a lot of water. But one
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: of the things that I noticed when I look at
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: this course is the water comes into play a lot
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: more on approach shots than drives and so if you're
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: looking at if you're looking for like comp courses, it's
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: gonna be tough because a lot of the courses with
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: a lot of water, there's a balance between water on
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: approach shots and water on te shots, and you might
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: even see like a stronger effect on a lot of
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: the t shots than on the approach shots, where this
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: golf course the effect is on the approach shots for sure.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Funny enough too, because you mentioned the TVC toront
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: they gonna want to go back look, and that was
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: very truely E said, actually was like data golf as
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the thing, and it's like, you know, almost strongly favored
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: accuracy when everyone was in on bombers. And if you
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: go back even looking at this course the way they
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: do it, for like the like fourteen through sixteen, it's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: leading to the bomber's side even one year being a
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: strongly favorite bombers. But then you go back to like
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the justin Rose year and it's almost strongly favored accuracy.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: It's like to say, it can flip just like that.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: So it's like that's the kind I know it's different.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: And we're talking the course changes and all that stuff too,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: but just noting from from now to then too, and
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: then I wonder too, like even we had a little
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: bit of a conversation pre show and like the bombers
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: aren't the bombers, and I get it, But it's also
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: like the setup of what we have now, like a
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: lot of these guys, like you know, someone would say, uh,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, you play golf pretty pretty high end professionally.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: It's like, you know, three h five or three hundred
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is like pretty common versus like three twenty is like
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: the you know, you got to be up there to
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: be like the bomber now, but everybody else is definitely
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: a bomber if you go up in it beside you.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: But if I go up against somebody, everyone's a bomber
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: against me. The of these it doesn't matter. So it's
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: like there's that part of it as well in process
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: that people think about, do you want to share something here,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I'll change it over if that's what you got.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's take a look at some of these holes,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: because I think it's easier to show this point than
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: to just kind of explain it. So as we look
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: at a lot of the holes, like this is not
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: a this is not an uncommon look for a lot
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: of the holes on this golf course where you see
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: there isn't really water in play off the tea fairways
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: kind of wide. This is a par five opening, and
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: then the green is crazy narrow and water comes right
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: up against the green. And so you are going to
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: have a couple holes like three where there is water
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: in play off the tea. There might be a guy
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: or two who pushes it into this water. But quite frankly,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: like most of the guys, if they want, they can
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: just aim at this bunker, leave it short, and this
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: is an extremely wide landing area. This is not a
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: difficult shot. It makes the approach shot more difficult. So
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: maybe you'll have some guys try to push it past
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: this bunker into this area here, and that would bring
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: water into play, especially if they, you know, don't make
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: a cun tech things so that nature. So it's not
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: that like the water's never in play off the tea.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: But as we click through all these holes, here's a
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: par three the fourth, water's all around. Here's uh, let's
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: see uh again, water's not really in play off the
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: t On seven, maybe someone will blast it way right
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: into the water, but you're gonna have water very much
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: in play on the approach shot. Same thing with eight,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: you can you know, most t shots might be here.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: And now if you do want to take on the
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: green in two, water's directly in play. Same with nine, right,
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: and so this is kind of the picture that you
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: see around the whole golf course and the reason why
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: I think so here again you see it on the
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: part three. These par threes, by the way, are really
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: really good and really really difficult. This is the only
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: one that's you know, not even long right like we
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: have two sixteen, We had two twenty seven earlier, so
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: really difficult. Part three's now you get a driveable ish
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: uh par four. They'll probably have it up one day
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: where it's definitely driveable, and then other days guys are
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: going to be laying up over here and then hitting
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: a wedge. So seventeen you get the water right next
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: to the green, and then again on eighteen, this time
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: the water is maybe a little bit in play, but
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: most drives are gonna come into this area. So the
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: water really comes into play on approach shots, and that
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: does a couple things.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Number One, it means that when you're hitting an.
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: Approach shot, the difference between a good shot and a
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: bad shot is larger than usual because you know, a
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: mistake can be absolutely devastating in the hole.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: But it also means.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: That guys are going to go after fewer pins, and
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: so good shot or great shots I should say, are
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: going to be twelve feet twenty feet instead of two
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: feet four feet, things of that nature. So in order
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: to make birdies, you're also gonna have to make some
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: putts after you hit quality and iron shots. And on
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: some of these holes, like let's go back to that
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: par five I was talking about here eight, A lot
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: of these approach shots, even if you hit a good drive,
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: they're not gonna be hitting the green. They're gonna be
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: bailing out into these bunkers or bailing out right. And
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: now you have to, you know, get up and down
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: and so around the green. Play is not just going
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: to be about saving parts. It's going to be about
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: scoring on some of these you know, reachable par fives
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: or semi driveable part fours. And so to me, when
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: I look at this golf course, I just think every
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: aspect of golf is being tested and tested well here,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: and I think that that's what we're gonna see. Like
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: I expect to see. You know, you mentioned data golf earlier.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: One of the other things that they do is they
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: show a slope where one point zero means that, you know,
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: good players are separating from bad players as much as
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: they usually do. And then if it's more than that,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: you know, if you see one point five, it means
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: a traditional one stroke skull gap is a one and
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: a half strokes skull gap here. I talk about this
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: concept a lot in the course fit model. We don't
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: have a course fit model this week, but if we did,
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: I think what we'd see is, you know, boosts across
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: the board greater than zero percent, and so that's what
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: I expect to see. Yeah, I do think distance is
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: gonna matter here. I do think distance is an advantage,
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: but I also think being accurate off the teas an advantage.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Approach plays an advantage around the green, play and putting
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: are all advantages relative to the typical test on tour.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: I just think this is a really good golf course
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: that rewards great shots.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to ask you something else again, when
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: you break it down like that, I don't know too
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: much I can add value because it's huge, But I
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: think that people should be taking this away and filing
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: it not just for this week but for future because
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: you made some really good points, and especially when people
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: can visualize it, it's that much nicer to see, like, oh,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: that actually makes sense, Like, yeah, this guy might be
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: thirty yards behind the sky or twenty yards behind the sky,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: but they're probably both gonna have a similar third shot
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: because the second is obviously not the same. One's much
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: further ahead than the other, but it's not like a
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: bomb and gouge setup of that kind of thing, and
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: they may both have to bail out. And yeah, it's
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: more likely the guy thirty yards back ends up sloping
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: off the green and needs that around the green shot
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: than the other guy that might be able to spin
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: it a little or come in a little bit tighter
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: with it, but it's not guaranteed. And if that doesn't happen,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: now it also becomes like who has the better third shot?
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, shit, we had this. I'll use api the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: year that Bryson was, you know, going nuts and doing
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the pump off the tee. Who was he facing in
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the playoff though? And I get how it all played out,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: but it's said Lee Westwood, like west was fifty yards
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: behind this guy. But because there it became about like
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: a third shot. Often the first shot is cool, but
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: it's even in the pros, you know, drive for show
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: putt Fode wasn't just putting. It's like the other factors
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: of the facets of your game becomes so much more important.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: I think that's is part of what you're pointing out
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: here and what people are sometimes missing. With that said,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: does this come to mind to you for any thought
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: process around this, because give you a just a quick example.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: You obviously know this quite well, but just pointing this
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: out is like obviously a min Wu's gonna pop in
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: total he's but but a lot of what he's popping
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: for is the distance factor, right, he can pound it
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: out there. His accuracy is not what's factoring his total driving.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: It's it's really stemming off of the super low score.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Your boy. You always talk about this guy not really
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: your boy. So I'll just bring up with Michael Brennan
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: and not for this, just noting it, but like Michael
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Brennan is super long off the tee. His accuracy not
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: as good as you would think. It's like sixtieth or something,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: but he's gonna pop on total driving. Do you do
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: you factoring that in because even like Yella Jake Knapp
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: is you know, super long, but they're not super accurate
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: by any means. And do you think that could matter?
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: And do you think that's like still where even when
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: people are using total driving, they're getting a lot of
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: those driving factors out weighing what could be needed.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think total driving is a step up
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: from using percentage of fairways hit or fairways gained, but
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: like it still doesn't capture what we're trying to capture
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: as well as simply looking at either stroke skin off
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: the tee or doing what we do over at f TAN,
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: which is separating it into stroke skin driving distance and
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: stroke skin driving accuracy. And so a couple of guys
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: that you mentioned, like min Wu, actually gains strokes with
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: his accuracy. It's just that he's so long that he's
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: going to hit fewer fairways. But he does a good
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: job of managing his misses missing on the right side,
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: and part of that is decision making off the tee
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: right so he doesn't always take driver when when there's
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: more of a premium on you know, avoiding a big miss.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: He doesn't go with the big driver, he hits the
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: mini driver and you know, keeps it in play that way,
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: and so there's that aspect of it. Brennan is another
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: one of those guys where like he gained strokes with
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: his accuracy off the tee even though he can't hit
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: as many fairways because he's hitting it so far as
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: some other guys. So so yeah, I think total driving
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: is a step in the right direction, but it still
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: misses a lot of what it actually means to be
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: accurate off the tea.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Perfect anything else on that topic you want to roll into.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: If not, we could talk about this week and you'll
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: bring it to a DFS perspective now. But anything else
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: you want to add in there in the mix.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I think the final point to make here
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: is Okay, so we now have this picture of like
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: what might actually matter and how this course might actually
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: test players and it's an all around test and not
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: just a bomber's paradise.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: Okay, Well, how do we apply that?
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: Well, it means one of the things that we can
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: look for is who are the really good players who
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: aren't long off the tea. We're gonna be really low
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: owned because people just kind of automatically dismiss them because
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: they don't have length. Guys like Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: I don't think Sepstraca is gonna be totally ignored. I
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: do think he'll be somewhat popular. But you know a
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: lot of guys just like who fit that mold I
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: think are going to be really low, are going to
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: be under owned this week. And then the flip side
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: is I also don't want to play somebody who's only
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: getting ownership because they have the distance if they don't.
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: If they have the distance and are good throughout the bag,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: and you know they they have a complete game, then
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: I can still eat that chalk. But if if the
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: guy's popular only because he hits the ball far but
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: does not have the complete game, then that's somebody I
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: really want to avoid this week.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: I like that too. And I know this leads more
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: to our segment later of like when we're gonna sort
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: of how to leverage the chalk builds and stuff, because
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: the chalk builds are leaning towards this narrative right now
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: of you know just distance really, but you know some
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: of the other factors. But I think you can also
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: apply to like if somebody does have Like I mean,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell is a good example, Like I think he's
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: fairly decent off the team, like as far as like
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: distance and accuracy goes off the tee, but like nobody
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: wants him this week at seventy five hundred because there's
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: too many other guys in that range they need to
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: go to. So you can use some mixtures of that
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: as well, Like if you can find something and it's
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: again a lot of Keith Mitchell, are you crazy? I
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: don't care about a lot of the other stuff around.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I'm playing the game, but I'm saying like that would
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: be an example where it's like, wow, we now have
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: someone who could fit these people's narrative. But then they're
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: not even playing him, so what he just he doesn't
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: make the cut. It's like when people go with like
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: an am wave and like but then they decide to
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: cut out a bunch of guys, or when I talk
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: about all the time, when people play they you finally
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: find a week you might be wrong, but you feel
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: like you have an edge because of an AM wave,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: and then you play a single entry and again, some
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: people like yourself, I get it, but I'm just noting
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: it like when people are like, well, I just got
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: to pick six guys. As long as I pick six
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: morning guys, I'm in good shape. Yeah, you're probably better
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: off than the rest of the field because you're doing something,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: you're following the right angle all that. But if you
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: really thought that was a true edge, wouldn't you want
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: to kind of extrapolate on that and play more angles
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: if you could, or if you're playing more lineup. So
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of how I look at this.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: If you can find guys like I don't know, Keith Mitchell,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: who else do I got here? Maybe a I don't know,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: like Keegan's not super long, but obviously like certain certain
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: guys that still have driving distance positive you know, positive
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: notes in that range. You could look for that. But
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: I like your call the guys like Morikawa, Fleetwood, Henley,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: some of those guys that pop in those ranges that
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: you know aren't as long off that but still have
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: other facets of their game that would really fit this.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: You could also build around that. Do you think there's
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: any commitment that's required to like go all in on
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: your narrative or or do you cause you've talked about
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: in the past, like the Wave sax, like, don't why
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: doing a five to one when you can just do
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a six to zero and commit to it. Do you
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: think if you're fading the narrative of the bombers but
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: going with your of like, yeah, they can still drive
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the ball, they're just not considered bombers. This is the case, though,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: would you want to be like a six to zero
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: on that if you're going against it?
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: It's perfect that you asked this question, because I was
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: about to say, like, we're we're almost skipping a step
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: here and we haven't even talked about exactly what the
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: TRUK bill looks like yet. But if you're trying to
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: answer the question, okay, how do I pivot off of
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: the Truk build? Like, to me, there are two obvious answers.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: The first is, Okay, if distance is driving so much
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: of ownership, then I have two options. I can either
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: find all of the guys who are under owned because
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: they're not long but they still project well and still
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: have a good chance of succeeding here. Or I do
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: lean into the same narrative that everyone else is leaning into,
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: and I just find the guys who fit that definition,
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: who aren't being who aren't popular. So like a lineup
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: full of Keith Mitchell's Keith Mitchell, Taylor Pendrith, who's been
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: really bad, but he obviously hits the ball far, he's
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: gonna be like three percent on So if he finally
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: figures it out this week fits the golf course could
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: be a really valuable play And to your or to
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: answer your question there is like, yeah, I do think
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: it makes sense to really lean into one of those
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: answers instead of trying to buying them. Where you have
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: a lineup that's like Keith Mitchell, Taylor Pendrith, Russell Henley,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: Tommy Fleetwood like those, that combination doesn't make a ton
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: of sense. If distance really is so important here that
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: it takes two guys who aren't as good as a
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: lot of the players around them, and Keith Mitchell and
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: especially Taylor Pendrith right now and vaults them into contention
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: this week because that skill set's just so important, well
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: then you probably don't want Russell Henley in that lineup,
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: right If you have the lineup with Russell Henley, you
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: want the field to be wrong about how much they're
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: emphasizing distance, And if they're wrong, about how much they've
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: emphasized distance. It means they are under owned guys in
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: every single price range. And you don't need to go
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: to the guys who are low owned despite being long.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: You go to the guys who are just quality players
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: and aren't long. So you know, that's when you go
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: to Stepstraca. Maybe that's when you go to Keith and
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: Bradley or Shane Lowry, Ryan Girard, guys like that. And
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: so yeah, I think whatever your answer is to how
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: you want to combat this narrative from the field that
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: distances is so important. I think you want to, you know,
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: tell that story throughout the entire lineup and not just
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: two or three of the guys in the lineup.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, excellent, that's all. I love doing the shows with
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: you because it's always like a great breakdown of it.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: But like they I would call that almost like my
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: own spinoff, like the land mine effect. It's like if
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: you try and get the other stuff right, like you're saying, Okay,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go four guys, not with this, two guys
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: with it. It's like you you could just land on
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the land mine, but and get that wrong, and that
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: screws up everything. Else you were right, but like that's
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: what screws you up, and that's dumb. But also on
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: the other side of that, the flip side to the
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: coin is if it's wrong, imagine the people with six
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: of those in their lineup. They're so likely to have
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: like two or three do really poorly, and well there's
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: a there's no cut this week. It's like, that's still
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: not gonna work out. Well, they're like, yeah, they got
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: everyone to play all those rounds, but it's like, man,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: they got three guys that just did horrible because it
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: wasn't what you thought it was and they probably would
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: have been miscuts had to have been a cut. So
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: it's like that type of thing. Last quick question I
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: have for you on this is just your take on
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: no cut events and higher variance golfers. I was looking
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: at it yesterday and talking with Mail from the perspective
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: of like spike rounds, and I know those are important,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Like you can get those you talked about earlier. If
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: you get the four percent guy who gets to the
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: top twenty, but two of those rounds he goes super
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: low and he actually scores you like top twelve, then
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: it's even more valuable. Then there's other factors, of course,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: and nuances to it all, but just noting it, like
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: what's your take on the no cut strategy, and then
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: we'll actually get to the chalk build. I know we're
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: working a little bit in reverse here, but that's fine.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny.
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: I kind of go back and forth on this answer,
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: and I think over time I've gotten a better sense
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: of it, and I think what I've kind of concluded
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: is that it really changes less than we think it does.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: And here's why. Number one, everything you just said is
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: one hundred percent true.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: You know, there's less risk on highly valadble players.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: There's less risk.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: That number one means like volatile from event to event,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: but it also means volatile in terms of how they score.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: Guys who make a ton of bogies and doubles but
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: also make a ton of birdies like a Ludvig Goldberg,
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: or you know, guys who are cheaper than that, like
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: Keith Mitchell, for example. There's less risk on those guys
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: and they can help score a lot more. But the
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: fact that everyone plays four rounds also means that the
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: cream is gonna rise to the top more often than not.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: And so there's you know, there are instances of like
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: someone this week who's fairly popular is gonna have a
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: bad first two days, and if there was a cut,
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: they'd be cut, But then on the weekend they're gonna
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: play really well and they're gonna end up being a
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: good play because they were able to play all four
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: rounds instead of being a chalk failure if they were
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: cut after the second round.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: And so it kind of works both.
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: Ways where you have the lessening of variants in the
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: fact that everyone plays four rounds, but then that's kind
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: of canceled out because that would say, okay, you should
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: be less contrariing than you usually are in a in
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: a full field of But then that's canceled out by
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: the fact that you know, scoring plays a larger role.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: You get those spike rounds, and you know everyone now
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: has four opportunities for a spike ground instead of some
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: guys only have a chance for only have two chances
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: for that spike round. So I think largely it just
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: kind of all cancels out. And every time that we've
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: talked about no cut events versus cut events, like we've
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: maybe been over emphasizing just how big of a difference
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: it actually makes.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think from talking through it now and like
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: just rolling it out on both sides and then getting
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: all opinions and thoughts, I think one of the key
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: factors is to more of the former of what we
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: just talked about with the other. Like if you're all,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: if you're going in on a you know it's it's
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be this you know, bombers event, and you're gonna
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: find bombers that aren't as own the Keith Mitchell's the World,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: those types of spots, It's like, I'd still rather commit
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to that and then still go with this being the
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: theory behind Like sure, if they can, you can get
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: more volatile, but like, as long as you're sticking to
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: the first part, I think it matters more because that's
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: where you're likely to get those spike rounds from from
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: you being accurate on what you think the event is
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: going to play like and getting the combination of your
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: group to score like that and so on and so forth.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: I think it really applies, especially like we talk about
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: on the show again working backwards of how to leverage.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: You talk about but if you're doing single entry and
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: you're doing or you're handbuilding, a lineup and thinking about
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: all these factors. That's where you can really put yourself
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: in a good position on my mm pool. Am I
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: gonna get some lineups that might somehow have like Russell
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Henley and Keith Mitchell very possible? And that's you know,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: that's the way I play. It's gonna be maybe he's
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: my one spike and it works out, and that's what
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: I end up getting out of him. But in general,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: to your point of building for single entry and leveraging
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: it that way and all those factors, you are better
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: to commit to what you're doing. And it's it's kind
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: of like you'll just like you said you'll. It's like
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: this negates it, like you'll get it or you won't
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: from this. But the first part is what actually does
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: the job for you. Hopefully that makes sense. But I
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: think that's a really good way of putting it and
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: tying the two together. So good stuff, man, a lot
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: of good stuff here, A lot of good questions from people.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Let's finally get to it. Talk to me about the
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: chalk build and then if you think it is like
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: a cam Young and just the Scotty conversation is more
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: of there's a chok build of course, but it looks
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: like this, But what about the actual chalk build for
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the week, Like, where do you think most people are
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: landing this week?
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: I do think that most lineups are going to start
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: Cam instead of Scotti. Right, We've got Cam at thirty
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: one percent in Scotty at twenty two percent in single entries.
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: I do think Scotty could come in over that, but
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: I also think Cam could end up like forty or
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: fifty percent on especially because of so many of the
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: bombers did not show up here, right, Like, this is
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: a place where I would have given a lot of
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: consideration to an eleven and a half thousand dollars Rory
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: instead of the thirteen and a half thousand dollars Scotty.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: So the fact that.
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: Cam is like the lone guy who really really fits
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: that definition, I think he will be quite popular. I
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: think it will be easy then for people to pair
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: Cam with either Nap or got Her Up, and now
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: they feel like, Okay, I've got two guys who can
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: really win here instead of just the one with Scotty.
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: We talked about some of the values already. I think
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: min Wu's going to be popular. I think Nikolai Hoygard
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: and Kirk Kittiyam are going to be pop some of
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: the longer guys. Gary Woodland has played so well of
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: late and is one of, if not the longest guys
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: in this field, so he's gonna be popular.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: And yeah, so I think like.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: It's weird because you know, we already talked about the
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: idea that like we have we have two chalk builds
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: where we have the first chalk build of with Scotty,
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: we have the second chalk build, which might be even
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: more popular this week of the no Scotty chalk build.
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: We also almost need like a third and fourth this week,
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: which is you know, the the third chalk build is
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: the build where everyone goes in on bombers, and that's
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: gonna be kind of what we just talked about. Cam
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: Yong got her up, min Wu Kida Yama hoy Guard.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: Whoever fits Woodland in there, maybe one of those guys
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: can't can't fit in there and you have to go
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: cheap or whatever. There Also then might be just like, okay,
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: who are people going to if they don't just go
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: all in on this distance narrative, and then that might
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: lead to you know, Adam's skin or actually with Tia
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: or Colin Morrikawa. Maybe that's more when you get the
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: Scotti lineups, and so it's I do think it's going
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: to be a pretty interesting mix of lineups. Maybe Ryan
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: Gerard Cepstraca get more love in those types of lineups.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: But but yeah, I think the one thing that we
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: really need to avoid is I think the worst lineup
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: this week would be a lineup of six of the
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: more popular bombers, because it's it's more than just their
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: individual ownerships. Like if if you found a lineup that
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: started Cam Young, Chris got her up, Minwu Lee, Nikolai Hoyguard,
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: the likelihood that Gary Woodland is in that lineup is
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: a lot higher than his seventeen percent, fifteen percent whatever
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: the overall conscience is going to be, because the start
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: of that lineup clearly shows that the person building that
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: lineup wants bombers, and Woodland is a very obvious bomber
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: in his price range. So that to me is like
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: the biggest thing that we need to think about when
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: we're trying to avoid the truck building and then how
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: to pivot off of it.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent. I want to elaborate on that too,
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: just because you've talked about this in the past. We've
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: done some really good NFL stuff together when we launched NFL.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: When we launched Leverage Lane was during the NFL last season,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: like Week three, Week four or whatever, and then we
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: ran with it from there, carried it over to PGA.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: People have seemed to love it and say it's not
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: for everybody, But if you want people that are actually
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: playing the game at a high level, putting real money
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: behind it, talking game theory, concepts, leverage that you can
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: apply and get better at the game versus just the
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: picks and the plays, this is definitely the show for you.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: But I will say you taught me something really strong
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: this last NFL season, right, like about inverse correlation almost
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: you're talk about like it's a stacking sport, like little things.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to rehash them all here. That's you know,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: for future conversations. But like when you talking about like
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: the running back on the other side, But if you're
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: doing that, what about the passing game that now has
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to catch up. It's like you're not even going to
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: a different spot, you're just making it for Like, man,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: if this game just happens to go the other way,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: you're still in a great spot and you just get
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: such a huge leverage piece from flipping it that way.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: And I won some pretty good money doing that. So
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: it was awesome and thanks to you. But I will
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: say when we talked about earlier in golf where you
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: don't get a lot of stacking correlation, now when you
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: do get like a skill set stack this week where
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: pee a lot of people trying for bombers, like you said,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: putting all six together or some version of that, it's
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: not like inverse correlations so much to me, I guess
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: as like how we found the levers earlier and the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: separations that we talked about, whether it's roster construction, leaving money, uh,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: pivot plays totally different things that you're doing within your
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: line of but ways to find it. You're you're almost
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: like reversing those in this situation where you're saying like
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: if you if you land on Cam Young, Min Wu
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: Lee and Hoguard, it's like it's so likely that two
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: of Kiddiehama, Woodland, Jordan Smith and gutter Up are in
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: there right, Like you're getting that group and that's what's
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: coming together. So you're you're you're forcing yourself into the
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: wrong corner of the building. When you want to get
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: to the corner of the building that has all the
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: top heavy money or the penthouse suite like I was
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: talking about, you want to go up to it. So here,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: you know, it's pretty easy to see the ranges. It's
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: like Cam Young got her up. It's min Wu probably
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: Adam Scott, even though he doesn't necessarily fully fit that.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: That is all based on like sort of recent form
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: mixed with his the last guy to win here in
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen when it mattered type thing or whatever, Hoguard
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Kiddiama Woodland, some version of maybe a couple other randoms there,
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: and then at the bottom it looks like it's like
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: whether it's Corey Connors, Jordan smith Yella, that type of
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: cetup so that can almost walk you in to the build.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: But on the flip side, to elaborate, it's like, isn't
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: that also why we talk about it? When you go
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: to the Chalk Scotty build, it's like, okay, let's go
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Scotty Jordan smith yell like wherever you decided to be
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: down low? Oh now Gary Woodland fits now it leaves
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: you just enough to get like a hoguard and down
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: you have to skip cam Young got her up and
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: min Wu, but you didn't actually do anything that different
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: in the Scotty lineup. Do you want to elaborate any
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: on the Scotty version or just and then talk about
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: leveraging Scotty builds as a whole, because I think that
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: some people do still want to go to Scotty here
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: because they're comfortable with no cut, all four rounds, et cetera,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: et cetera.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: Well, actually I want to ask you a question on
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: that last point, because this is something that like I've
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: thought a ton about and I don't know that I
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: have the right answer. So one thing that we know
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: is true is that guys like Jordan Smith, probably Gary Woodland,
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: Yellow Miraju, Corey Connor is like all these guys are
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: going to be higher owned in Scotty lineups than outside.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Of Scotty lineups.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: Right for you, does that mean that you are more
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: likely to use them outside of Scotty lineups or are
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: you then like my hesitation with that thought, because on
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: the surface, it makes sense you're getting them at lower
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: conditional ownership than you would get them if you were
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: using them with Scotty, that makes them better plays without
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: Scotty than with Scotty. That makes sense, at least on
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: the surface level. The hesitation that I have there is
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: we know that Scotty's likely to do really well. One
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: of the reasons why we're not playing Scotty from one
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: week to the next is because we don't think that
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: the Scotty lineup as a whole is as good as
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: non Scotty lineups as a whole. And the main reason
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: for that is because the guys you have to use
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: to fit him, like the Jordan Smith's, Yellow Miraju, Corey Connors,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: they don't have the same upside that a lot of
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: the you know, non Scotty lineups have.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: So if you're.
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: Using them, are you then saying, all right, well, if
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: if Jordan Smith does really well, like I don't want
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: to be helping the Scotti lineups because all of a
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: sudden he's making Scotty lineups viable and now Scotty winning
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: actually can hurt me. Whereas if I don't play anyone
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: that's going to be played with Scotty and then Scotty
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: does really well, chances are I'm still not hurt by
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: the fact that I don't have Scotty, because chances are
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: those guys down there didn't do super well. But if
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: they do and I have them, now, I bring Scotty
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: lineups back into play that I have to compete against.
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: So like, it's it's not the easiest thing to think through,
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: but I'm curious if you have a strong thought already
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: on this.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's strong, but I think it's a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: good talking point definitely to go in on, because a
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: couple of things that stood out there. One is like, listen,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: if we know Jordan Smith is the guy at twelve,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: let's just say, and that's with Scotty. There is a
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: chance those lineups are needed, Like it can get pushed
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: up enough where that combo is what is required. There
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: is still four spots within those builds to get unique.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: So it's more than likely that I'm not going to
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: avoid that route purposefully. Obviously, in like a single entry
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: is a different story. You might have to think about
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: that and is that really the two that you want
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: to be in on the highest and the low, etc.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: I get that, but for me thinking about it from
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: a portfolio perspective and still leveraging it. I don't want
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: that lineup that has Smith. I mean it like fits together.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: It's like Smith Connor's Yella Kittyama hoguard, Like that's bad.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing that. And I would have to avoid
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: that group if going with it, But I might consider
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: like the group that would be the most likely to
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: separate even at the ownership sucks because it's gonna be
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: such a high group and I'm gonna have to avoid
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: all these other guys not coming through. But I would
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: build it that way. I wouldn't forcefully avoid it because
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: of that being a possibility to answer that part of it.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: The second part, though, is like with Scotty as a whole,
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: is like how different can you actually get? And then
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: you just kind of land in like pivot spots in
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: all of them. So you have the same construction, the
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: same salary. You're getting no levers beyond your actual plays
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: in the lineup, and that is what you're hoping to
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: come through. But then it's like I always call it
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: the Yatzi Scheffler because you got to roll the perfect
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: dice with the already Scotty dice that you have, and
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: it's like, man, that is tricky to pull off, and
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: I think I'd want to commit a lot more lineups
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: if I was going that route, because then I kind
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: of got to just hope to get the right combination.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Does that spark any other thoughts for you or anything extra?
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's largely where I am.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: So the way that I would phrase it on this
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: answer is, I think you can play one guy down there,
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: provided that you think he's a really good play, just period.
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: So like, yes, if I'm playing Jordan Smith, it's because
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: I think he's one of the better values on the slate,
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: and I don't think and and I recognize that in
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: order to play Scotty you can't just play Jordan Smith.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: You have to play other guys in this range. So
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: if I think Jordan Smith is the only good play
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: in this range, I can play him and then say,
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: all right, Scotty Lamps are going to be killed by
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: the fact that they have to play two more guys
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: in this range.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: At least.
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: The second part there is.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: I don't want to play anyone in that range.
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: Simply to fit something.
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: So like let's say I like, you know, three guys
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: in the nine K range, and I say, okay, well,
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: now I have to go pick my favorite six K guy.
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: I don't want to go pick my favorite six K
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: guy if I don't think there's a good one. It
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: has to be because that guy's a good play just
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: in general. He's one of the better values on the slate,
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: and not just the best option in that range. If
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: he's simply the best option in that range, I'm going
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: to change what I'm doing elsewhere. I'm gonna say, Okay,
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: one of these nine K guys needs to become an
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: AK guy so that I can upgrade Jordan Smith to
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: step Straka or Kirkittiam or someone like that.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: And now I'm really avoiding that range.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I'm going to add a couple more things actually because
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: now he sparked more thoughts for me, and it's like
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: it it'll actually tie into like how to leverage this
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Scotty build as well, because it's a factor that I
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: want to bring up. If you're doing a bottom up build,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: just to do it, meaning you're starting with your favorite
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: value play, if you're doing it just to do it,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: saying like I know Jordan Smith pops in projections, so
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: let me run this thing with Scotty. That's the wrong way,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, to do it, because you're just doing
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: that to do it. If you're saying though, Jordan Smith
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: is I don't think anyone's saying this, by the way,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they are just noting it. Jordan
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Smith is a lock for me. He's a lock in
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: at that price because I think it's insane that he's
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: that low. He should be seventy four hundred, Like this
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: is just pure value. He allows me to get to
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Scotty and I'll figure it out elsewhere. That's different than
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: than the former that the latter part of that is different.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: You're you're wanting him and then making it work. But
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: I think the bigger factor here, and I know we're
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: on Scotty. You can tie this to cam young lineups
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: if you want, whatever it is you're doing, But if
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Scotty is your guy, that's the bigger picture here, if
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: you think. And by the way, the guys that won
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: these tournaments back in the day, Yes, the driving distance
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: and shit that we already went through, but it's like, yeah,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: the best ball strikers in the world at that time too.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: So if one of if not the current I know
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: people will give him some shit for some up and
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: down this season. But Scotty best ball striker if he
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: wins and separates by five strokes and is just needed.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Somebody has your combo that's required. And that's where I
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: would actually do it the other way, Alex, and I
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: would look at okay, Scotty and who else and not
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: forcefully avoid it, because let's say you go Scotty, and
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: I'll do a quick advance. I'm not gonna do a
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: full lineup, but just noting, okay, Scott, I have seventy
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: three hundred remaining, and I decide I'm okay for me,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: for example, I'm gonna stick with this theme and I'm gonnay. Okay, Well,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: it's Keith Mitchell here, and and it's you know who
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: else is another guy that who's another bomber like Keith
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Mitchell this week in your read like is it a
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Sam Steve Nikolai? No, that's not super popular, though, piercing
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: Couty give me Cooty. Okay, it's great call. Let's use him.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: So let's say, now, okay, I'm still sitting around that
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: like average seventy two hundred. I'm not gonna walk the
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: lineup down. But what I'm saying is if my next
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: two guys happened to land me on Jordan Smith, and
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Jordan Smith fit this build. That's where I was saying
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: earlier that I'd be fine with that happening in my builds.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: And the reason is is because look, I got Scotty
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: winning in this build or else the builds in the
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: garbage anyway, probably at thirteen to six, and with this
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: field and everything that breaks it down. But my next
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: four plays, it's not about the plays. The way my
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: build shakes out. The next four guys in are all
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: super low owned and they still fit the narrative of
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: what I'm going with in this build, et cetera, et cetera.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: And then if my last guy in, I think you
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: did this actually and like maybe it's the Masters with
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: See Woo and you're like, yeah, see who's kind of nuts,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: but he's also insanely priced. That's seventy six hundred nuts
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: to put in a lineup with all the other chalk.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Like if I land there as my last guy when
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: most have them as their fourth guy, or most are
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: filling it with like three more Chalk guys, I'm okay
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: with it. So all I'm saying, is the point to
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: be made if my other two guys with Kody and
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Mitchell were low owned, and then I landed on Mitchell
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: or on a Smith story, I wouldn't force in Pendrith
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: just because if that sounds great, it could work on paper,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I'm saying, but I wouldn't force it in just because
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I'd say, you know what, if I land on Smith here,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with it because everything else is built accordingly,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: and if that happens, it happens. So just noting that,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I think that's important to remember as well, separating from
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: the top and then seeing how the rest of your
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: build goes as you shake it down. That is natural
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: way to leverage the Scotty builds and still end up.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: But but then you know what happens, right then they get
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: there and people are like, of course that loser Jordan
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: Smith got there that everyone made fun of at that
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: price of that ownership, and of course Scotty wins. The
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: chalk just always hits. But then we can be at
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: the top with this exact lineup, because really, but were
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: you playing those two with Keith Mitchell and Pearson Coody
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: and whoever the other two end up being probably not.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the factor that people have to remember.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: It's not in a vacuum. It's not Taylor Pendrith. You
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: want to give me, you know, you want to give
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: me Taylor Pendrith. Twelve to one is one percent to
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the twelve percent. But we're not matchup betting here, right
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Like the other stuff can still come alive for you
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: within the lineup, and then people will get mad about
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: it because the chalk hit and hate on it with
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: the Jordan Smith stuff. But there was thoughtfulness that went
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: into the rest of the build based on everything we
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: just explained. I don't if you want to elaborate any
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: further on ways to leverage the Scotty chalk builds, but
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: I think there's this conversation pieces like that are more important.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: No, I don't.
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: I don't think I have anything to add. I think
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: that was a really fun conversation. Hopefully everyone found it
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: really valuable.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Anything else that you see, like even on the Cam
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Young side of things, like if you were like, is
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: it like a you know, I talked yesterday a little
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: bit like a four to nine K guy, like, is
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: there you know, do you think the eight k's are
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: just going extremely overlooked and have high values in them.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: Like any other ways, you can see from a single
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: entry perspective that people want to look to leverage the
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: chalk build this week with everything else you've already brought up.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: Here, it's it's a little bit different this week. You know.
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: We we've had that pattern a lot this year, right
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: where the nine K range is full of chalk and
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: then the eight K range is kind of all ignored.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: I think ownership is gonna be really really spread out
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: through most of the eight and nine k's where you're
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: gonna have some chalk, and you're gonna have very very
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: few like super low owned guys. So for example, between
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: Morikawa and ninety eight hundred and Fowler at eight thousand dollars,
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: only one guy Fowler actually let me let me say
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: that in a better way, between Marikawa at ninety eight
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: hundred and Batilla at eighty one hundred.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: We have nobody projected in the single digits.
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: So I think when you look for your separators, you're
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: not gonna find them there. You're gonna find them in
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: the seven K range or the upper nine K range
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: where there's one guy who stands out.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be the start of my leverage lane.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: All right, we'll save it for that. Anything you want
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: to add or anything you have this week on the
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: betting breakdown. So I'm just looking at a couple different
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: things I was giving, gonna throw these up there quickly.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, Aaron said, thanks for all you guys doing
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: the leverage Lane show. Great info, and then just had
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Michael also say, love this show. We appreciate all the feedback. Guys,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Like I said, let us know in the comments if
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: you're not watching this live, what else you want to
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: hear us talk about any other topics you have. We're
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: giving away two free months over at shiber Nation. With
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: that said, but just as a general, we'd love that
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: every week. We want the feedback. We want this to
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: be for the people, if you will. But we think
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: this is an important part of the game that nobody
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: really talks about. And you can still go listen to
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: podcasts that's folks on picks and plays, not saying don't
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: if that's part of your content diet. Highly awesome. I've
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: been you know, I've done that too, and it's been
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: a thing for me. But being able to take that
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: stuff and then bring it across. That's what I was
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: talking about with people in the mentorship class about like
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: the bridge. A lot of people have over here experience
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: and been around. I've been playing DFS for five years,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: but it never fully is clicked and I'm not quite
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: getting it. And then they have like this is a
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: lot of good things. It's like I'm learning this, but
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: now it's making it a little bit conflicting. So the
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: challenge is bridging it because their experience is coming this much,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: the thoughts and knowledge are coming this much, but then
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: it's fall off somewhere in between there. We're trying to
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: bridge that. That's what the lane is for, is to
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: connect it so that you can cross it and be
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: able to put this stuff together into lineups that can
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: put yourself in position to have an opportunity. Does it
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: still require luck, absolutely, but there's a reason the same
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: DFS players are having success. Just like at the poker
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: tables things like that, we are playing a game here
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: that is much more important than knowing who the best
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: golfer is. With this stat the data super important, especially
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: in golf, but it's also ways to bridge it and
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: put it together. So anything on that or the betting breakdown.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a really good point you just made,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: And I'll elaborate on a touch where I think a
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: lot of people who watch are waiting for a segment
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: of like here are my favorite plays, or here who
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: I think are the best value plays, are the best
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: pay up options. That's not the way that either of
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: us think about dfs, So you're not gonna get that
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: from us, But you are going to hear a lot
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: about specific players, right and so like if maybe at
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: this point in the show, you think, man, they they
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: really haven't talked about who they like so far, we
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: actually have, right, We've We've mentioned players because the way
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: we think about it is, if this is the type
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: of lineup I'm building, this is the type of player
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: that I'm going to be gravitated towards. If this is
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: the type of lineup and building, it's going to be
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: this type of player. And so you know, whether you
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: have to watch a pack or just you know, make
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: note of that for future shows, Like we are dropping
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: our player preferences in these conversations. It just happens organically
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: around the strategy that we're discussing in that moment. So
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, it's for example, it's not going
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: to be surprised when you hear the main focus of
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: my leverage lane because I've already mentioned this player a
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: couple of times is someone who really fits this specific strategy.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: So can't wait to get to that part.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll get there very short. Excuse me very shortly,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: lose my voice a little. It's going around this week,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: but I will ask quickly anything on the betting front
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: from you. This week.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: So far, I don't have a single bet yet. I
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: am hoping to add something. Part of that is because
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to work on a specific tweak. You know,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: I brought up the Contention performance scorer last week, and
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: so I'm trying to implement that as well as possible
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: still into the actual simulations, and not just adjust the
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: final percentage, but actually make it so like it's feeding
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: the simulation of Okay, this player in the simulation just
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: got into contention. Now let's see how well he performs there.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: So I'm trying to implement that, and i'd like to
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: have that finalized before I make any bets. But the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: other reason why I didn't make any bets this week
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: is because the guy who stands out the most in
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: terms of like, hey, his win odds are better than
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: what his implied price is. The market is Jake Knapp,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: but Nap has some injury concerns that I'm not sold on,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: so I didn't really want to make that bet, and
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: so at the moment, I don't have anything. But it's
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: been a as we've noted a couple of times, it's
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: been a really good year for PGA underdog picks. And
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: I didn't do anything at the Zerk, but I know
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys in my discord actually hammered the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: Zerk and did extremely well there, So that was fun
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: to see that they kind of took the initiative of
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: themselves to do it. But you know, even the week prior,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: we had an awesome, awesome Sunday that would have been
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: massive Sunday if Woodland hadn't hold out for Eagle on
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: the eighteenth hole. So that was a poor runout, but
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: it was still a really good, like five thousand dollars Sunday.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: That's kind of been a theme.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: So even if we have no bets going in, I'm
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: confident it'll be a great betting and pick them week
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: because it's kind of been the theme all season.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: I also think there's a lot to be taken away
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: that other people have brought this up in the past.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I didn't see it today in the comments, but I
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people in the discords talking after
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: like man on leverage Lane. I get a lot of
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: concepts that I can apply to betting. And obviously there's
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: a very clean cut one there. If you've got a
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: matchup bet where it's like a palmer versus an accuracy
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: guy or something like that, like you probably are getting
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: pretty good odds or at least equal odds on that
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: side of it, where you can take advantage of those.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: You could run some round robins with it. Even I
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: know everyone's always so focused on the outright mark. And
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. The the MLB sweats lately have
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: been decent for me, and I've had a couple of
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: good shots there and I've made some good money just
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: like down the stretch of like the you know, inning
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: by inning stuff and being able to see some of
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: that like where it's like, oh well, now if this happens,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: this is this, it's like you can kind of use
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: them both to your advantage. In golf. Is definitely that
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: way as well. Jason says loved the analogy of the
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: quote unquote bridge exactly I feel playing golf DFS. I
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: used to be a content fanatic and have discovered how
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: hard it is to bridge them together. It's like, I say,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I talk a lot about this with people in the
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: mentorship classes, like their content diet. I'm not trying to
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: change that, but it's like typically when someone's trying to
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: come get help with DFS, it's like the same thing.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I know your goal. It's like if I go to
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: a personal trainer, of course I want to lose weight
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: and get healthy. That takes a lot of time, effort, discipline, sacrifice,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. We're not saying it's any different here.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: These are the people that have the ten thousand plus hours.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: I never counted mine up, but I'm sure it's a
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: lot of hours, as is it for you. It's like
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: we're trying to and we're still not going to be
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: what people would say like masters of the game. It's
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: the idea of trying to get after it, being obsessed
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: with it, and just noting it that when you you know,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: I know when people come to that, oh I want
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: to win money. Of course you do, but what are
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: you doing and what's different? And I find out what
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of people get stuck on spending so much
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: time on just picks and plays and not recognizing that
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: much like a chess game, we all have the same board,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: we all have the same pieces in chess. It's even worse,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: by the way, if I play the number one chess
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: player in the world, I'm losing one hundred and one
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: hundred games to them. They're just way further ahead of me.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. DFS brings some variables, the variants,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: the sports, the luck, the factors into it a little
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: bit more. But if you just play the long game,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: both with contest selection, bankroll management, all of this stuff together,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: that's where you can actually be able to apply this
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: stuff and put it in your favor. So hopefully I could.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: Could talk about this kind of stuff for hours and hours.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: So I don't want to go too far into this route,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: but I love the analogy just brought up of like
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: seeing a trainer, because DFS and I think the way
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: that we try and present this show is it's kind
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: of akin to like who's going to get better results
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: in the gym? Someone who goes to see a trainer,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: does the exercises that they're told to do, and then
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: goes home. Or the person who like really wants to
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: kind of understand why the trainer is giving them those exercises,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: and over time they come to really believe in the
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: program and they understand why they're doing the things they're
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: doing and how to implement that in the rest of
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: their life with the way that they eat and things
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: of that nature. And obviously the person who's like really
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: involved and wants to learn and I understand why they're
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: doing the things they're doing, it's going to see better results.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: And I think that's every bit is true, if not
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: even more true for DFS.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, got to be willing to do it though. That's
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: the factor, right, You're going to have to make some
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: sacrifice from that perspective. One and done conversation. Who we
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: think of for this week? Any quick thoughts on one
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: and done? And then we'll get to our leverage lane
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: for this week.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't actually have like a strong lean for us.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: We do have Cam Young still available. He's probably the
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: best option. He's also probably going to be the most
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: popular option.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you this. Then I did have
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: a quick question because again I learned way more on
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: this stuff from you than you know, just figuring it
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: out myself. But like we had this gotterr Up conversation
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: earlier in the year, and I know, yo, somebody'll say
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: I could go against the narrative of course he's a bomber, etc.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: But my point would be a lot of people that
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: had got up and got the money from him, well
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: they're done with him. Other people have tried to, you know,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: implement him since then, and you know, I think the
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: best result since that win three months ago was like
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: a sixth, so they would have got some money for that,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: for sure. I'm trying to see if I can remember
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: what event that was. Hoguard came out Gary Woodland when
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: he won that week, So just noting it, like, is
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: this a spot to ROLLO got her up? I know
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: it could be in the secondary ownership range, but you
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: also would get a lot more money for him than
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: most have him at even for like a second or
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: third I think.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is a very good spot for him,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: and if we had him available, say we can use him.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: But we do not. And that's why I like talking
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: about one and done.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: At this time of year, is is so difficult because
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: everyone has different guys available and everyone's in different situations,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: and so I think this conversation is is less about
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: like who we actually want. Now you and I can
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: pick our guys, so we have to make that selection.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: But I think for anyone you know who's playing one
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: and done, the number one question you have to ask
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: is do you want to find a bomber or do
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: you want to go against the grain and find just
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: a really good player who's going to be low owned,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: not because the field doesn't think he's good enough in
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: this field, but because he just doesn't fit.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: From a skill set perspective.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: And so my top selection for this week would be
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: Tommy Fleetwood because I think he's going to be low owned,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: and he's you know, certainly one of the more likely
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: guys to win, and he even gets the advantage this
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: week of like this is one of the weakest top
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: ends of a signature event, and so I really like
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: the idea of playing Tommy this week.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's spot on. I also think you've
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: talked about this in the past, but obviously the you know,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: sort of the ownership if you Will and Wan and done.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: It's just a way if you want to get someone
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: who's still really good but low owned. Oftentimes it is
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: just to go against the grain of that narrative. That's
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: what you were saying with Fleetwood. But other guys that
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: fit that mold could be like a Henley for example,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: or like certain certain guys down the board. You can
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: go to others, but just noting it. If you've got
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: those guys left, you feel like, man, they I don't
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: want to touch Henley at ninety nine hundred in DraftKings
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: in my single entry because I feel like it's this
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: funny enough I see a smirking but we'll go there,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: but just noting it if you didn't want to. I
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: still think a guy like more Cowell would get one
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: in done ownership because of his recent form and all that.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: So you'd get really different with like a Fleetwood or
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: with a Henley. And so who do we have that
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: we can use because I'd kind of favor those two.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: We've got Tommy, Yeah, let's use Tommy cool. And I
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: was also smirking at Jordan's comment, so I was man like.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: I said, we could talk for days. We're not We
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: usually go like an hour fifteen, so we have six
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: minutes that only lane are lane to get to. Do
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: you have Good Life Fitness in the US, Yes, it's
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's super popular. I'm pretty sure it's like
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: the nationwide, like North American whatever. Anyway, they definitely do
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: hire some very questionable trainers. So the difference in that,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: I'll say is you usually pay a little bit less,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: Like it's less money for these trainers, and they're more
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: on like, you know, giving the right form to people
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: and like they're very well trained on that stuff. So
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: I think people need to recognize what you're going to
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: a trainer for and what your goals are and all
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: these factors. But you also kind of you know, it's
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: not to judge a book by its cover, but you
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: can get what you see and then you need to
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: tie it to your goals. You know, just look at them,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: say they don't look like they're in shape, they must
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: not be a good trainer. They could be a really
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: good trainer on like, here's how to start off if
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: you're just starting off, here's good form, here's how you
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: do this by the book textbook and why, and here's
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: nutrition facts and et cetera, et cetera. But they're not
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: living the lifestyle, so that does get a little bit tricky.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: My trainer, for example, I'm going for something different. It
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: was like, he's very in shape, he's got you know,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: years of testimonials. It's like, that's you know, it's it's
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: accountability too. I want that from me. Oh yeah, He's like,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: you want to be at this, but you don't cause
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: the last three weeks say this okay, and like on vacation,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: Well that's fair. You wanted that though, and now we're
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: going to do this. And he's not mad or like
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: holding me accountable in a bad way, but it's truthful
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: to the fact. It's like, yeah, you got to this
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: deal man, you knew that was the consequence. But you
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: should enjoy vacation. You're with your family, you're at all inclusive.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: It makes sense, chill, you're allowed to have that. And
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: now I know you're disciplined and you're gonna get right
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: back on track. And very quickly we're back on track.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: So what were your thoughts on this when you saw
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: because I think that's important as well. With us, obviously,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: people could see our track records and history and credibility
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: and reputations, which are extremely important. But what were your thoughts.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's it's hundred centrure that some trainers
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: are absolute knuckleheads. But I think that's like, it's also
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: ironically like one of the reasons why you should try
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: your hardest to learn, whether it's about trainers or evaluating
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: you know, analysts that you see on YouTube shows around
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: the DFS industry. The more you understand the game, the
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: more you understand, you know, the concepts, the easier it
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: is for you to recognize this guy's kind of talking
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: out of his ass.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: This guy doesn't you.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: Know, this isn't an opinion that I want to put
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: a lot of stock in and this one is, and
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: so you know, it's it kind of all works together.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: The more you can learn, I think number one, you're
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: gonna have a lot more fun and then number two,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: like you're just going to have a better kind of
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: instinct about everything involved in in DFS, in this game
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: that we love.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sometimes people are just doing the job. If we're
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: flimming to the DFS analyst's not to be like call
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: people out, So I'm not gonna go by names. So
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: obviously some people doing the job versus some people are
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: extremely passionate about it, and this is like they're every
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: day for you and I. We could literally sit here
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: for hours. We're actually due for a new mastermind reup
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: where we can just hash it out and talk everything.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: And that's got, you know, a lot of good stuff on.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: I got some more coming on that here shortly, but
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: just noting it from the lane perspective this week, let's
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: let's finalize this out. You said you were kind of
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: all set with yours. It sound like you're in the
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: nine k range for that. I thought that smirk might
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: be for Russell Henley, but go ahead, let's see where
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: you're at.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was perfectly time then, because my leverage lane
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: is this this concept that I was talking about earlier.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: It's I want to go all in on players who
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: are really, really good just through the bag.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: They don't need to be long.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to penalize someone for being long, but
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: I know that I have the best chance of finding
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: under owned guys by looking at guys who aren't long,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: because the field is going to dismiss them even if
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: the rest of their game actually fits to this golf
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: course really well. Russell Henley is the picture perfect prototype
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: of the type of play that I'm looking for. Tommy
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 3: Fleewood also fits this mold. I think Cebstraka fits it well.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, like, honestly, there are a ton of guys
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: in this field who fit this Dan fit this concept,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: and so it's not going to be difficult to build
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: a line up full of these guys. But the concept
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: is the leverage lane more so than Henley is the
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: leverage lane, because the concept is I'm finding under owned
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: players because the field thinks distance matters as like the
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: loan predictor, and I'm saying no, no, no, all aspects
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: of golf matters on this course. Yes, you get a
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: benefit if you're long, but accuracy, approach, play around the green,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: and putting are all going to play a key role
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 3: this week, and I think they're all going to be
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: separating skills in and of themselves. And so I want
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: the guy with the complete golf game more than the
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: guy who's long off the tee. And I think ownership
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: is going to be the opposite of that.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of why I brought that up. And
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: I thought the other thing really interesting about Henley. He
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: was actually one of my considerations before the show, just
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: as a again you're talking more concept wise, and he's
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: he fits that bill perfectly, but just noting it also
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: was because of the squeeze spot like we talked about yesterday,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: like nobody is gonna want to pay ninety nine hundred,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: Like what's even done that makes him ninety nine hundred?
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: No one knows, but it's it's that angle of it.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: But it's really that it's he squeezed perfectly between Cam
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: Young and Colin Morikawa, I think, And I'm not like
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: trying to steal yours or stick to it, but I
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: mean one thing that is extremely interesting to me is
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: a concept as well of like pairing together. Like so
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: many people are going to look at that and say like, oh,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: then let me just pivot off Colin moricaw and go
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: to Henley if nobody wants him, But why not play both? Right,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: Like why can't you just play those two? So that's
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: not my lane. I just want to give that example
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: first of saying like that's a concept or theme that
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: you could take away from that. I think too many
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: times people focus on like hey found my pivot, now
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: move on. It's like, well, what if you actually what
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: if it's Henley and Morikawa down the stretch, both their
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: game styles would fit your point of what you talked about,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: and you didn't have to pivot just because one head ownership.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: That difference maker of firing Henley in at one hundred
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: bucks more than more Kawa less than him, but then
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: using Morikawa with him that still fits your build could
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: be a way to go about it. But for me,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: I think the main thing is in like the seven
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: K range for my main lineup. Ilways talking about mine
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: from like my sticking to our original theme of like
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: the two undred dollars single entry perspective. I'm definitely gonna
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: be looking to get different in the seven K range
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: like I actually don't I in my main lineup. I
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: won't have Kidiyama, Hoguard, Woodland or Yella like none of
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: those four will be in my main lineup. And I'm
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: gonna try. And I'm also very unlikely to have Smith
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: in there either, just so you guys know. So I'm
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: more likely staying in the sevens and above or going
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: to like the really lower sixes and build up from there.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: I still have it in my head my other concept
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: was gonna be and this could work for it, so
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: you could tie the two of them together just to
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: be you know, not wishy washy on it is. I
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: still the concept of like three nine K guys maybe
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: even four, as being a possibility that so I don't
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: just want to say that, but yeah, none of those
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: five guys in the six or seven ks will be
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: in my main lineup at all. Even if I get
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: to that concept I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't land on it, like,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: none of those five will make it in so fading
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: all the chalk from the five guys I mentioned seventy
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: eight hundred and below in my main lineup.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: The I like the point that Scooter made in the chat,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: and one of the things that you and I have
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: talked about in the past that kind of fits this
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: concept perfectly is that we care more about course fit
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: when we're looking down the pricing board, because the best
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: players in the world can spike anywhere. And I think
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: that's why like Henley and Morikawa don't pop on long
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: courses because their games are especially suited to long courses.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: It's that their games are complete, they can play well anywhere.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: So I think that's more of the signal that you're
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: seeing there. But but yeah, and then when you do
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: want to look for the you know, the course fit specialist,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: it matters more for you know, even like this guy's
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: still a pretty good player, but like Keith Mitchell's gonna
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: benefit from a course that mutes the importance of putting
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: and around the green play and really wards the importance
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: of driving. Like that's obviously going to be true because
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: he has a severe strength and a severe weakness. The
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: guys at the top of the board don't have severe
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: weaknesses unless you're talking about see who Gim's putting or
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: Russell Henley's driving distance.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 2: But you know, Russell Henley loses fewer strokes.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: With his driving distance than you know, Keith Mitchell loses
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: on and around the greens. I think that's pretty pretty clear.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, just another concept to kind of always
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: keep in mind. And I love the fact that it
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: gets perfectly applied to this leverage link.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly what we're just talking about. So that's perfect
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: all right, man, awesome being back here in the booth
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: with you. Let the people know everything else you've got
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: going on where they can find you. Like I said,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: you're not in Alex's discord. He'll pump it up in
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: a minute, but I would highly recommend checking it out
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: if if it's you know, something you can get to,
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: but if you want to learn and get better at
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: all the things that we talked to with today, certainly
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: one of the places you'd want to be. But what
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: what do you got on the go? Man?
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, at alex Plica one on Twitter you can find
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: all FTN stuff and and my discord through that link.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: And yeah, you kind of alluded to it earlier, but
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: we're doing some really fun stuff over an MLB, just
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: kind of dissecting what the field is doing, what types
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: of strategies are working really well, what kind of stacks
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: are working really well. And it's kind of like an
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 3: ever evolving thing, right, Like it's it's not that I
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: posted it a week ago and and just gonna leave
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: it at that. It's like it I'm kind of posting
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: stuff every single day, learning together, learning as a community.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: What's working really well and and the types of strategies
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: that we should be taking.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say this, I'm much more of a
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: lurker and a reader because I don't actually fully get
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: it all, but like I'll catch on quickly and as
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: I have questions, I'll shoot your text and ask, but
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: I think like just the idea and the concepts are
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: really creative right now for what you know, everything that's
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: going on in the world from like an AI perspective
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: and being able to like tie it together and people
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: being so worried that that like is gonna end human
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: nature like of everything else, like we're still naturally you know,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: wanting to create, wanting to learn, wanting to be able
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: to tie these things together and use them. And I know,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: you know, just with that said, actually too, I want
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: to I'll try and show you. If I can't, all
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna let me bring this back up here.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: But likes you as you bring this up, did you
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: did you catch the the discussion the brain teasers about
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: the hypothetical that thing.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: Is so hard? Man, I'm like, I always like try again.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: I'm the first to tell people like I get like
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: understanding things and knowledgeable in this. I'm sure if I
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: applied to it, I could do better with it. But man,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: those things get me, like, I'm just it's not my
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: it's not always my best thing. I'll say it that way.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: Well, the recent one that I posted that we had
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: like this really awesome discussion on and this is part
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: of what I love about the discourse, Like it's just
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: a fun community to be a part of. It's like
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: it was just a thought experiment really that we were discussing.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: There is no right answer, it's just I'll pose the
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: question here.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: People can put their answer in the comments, or we
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: can talk about it at the start of next show.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: But the question is imagine. Let me phrase it this way.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: Imagine you're select You're randomly selected as a group of
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: one hundred thousand adults around the world, and you're presented
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: with a question. You can either press the blue button
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: or the red button. If at least fifty people at
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: least if sorry, if at least fifty percent.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: If people choose blue, everybody lives.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: If fewer than fifty percent of people choose blue, then
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: only the people who selected red live.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: Which button do you choose?
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: And I like this because number one, Like, you get
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: a bunch of different answers, but the reasoning that people
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 3: cite for their answer is like amazingly variant. I couldn't
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: begin to have predicted how many different types of answers
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: we'd see, and it just led to some really fun
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: discussion and that kind of thing is always going on
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: in the discord.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: And then like you mentioned the.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 3: Fact that, like you know, a lot of people are
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: a little bit confused or don't understand what's going on
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: with the AI progress, Like we have a channel specifically
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: devoted to just talking about AI and claud code and
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: how I've used it and you know, the best ways
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: that I think people who are interested in that type
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: of thing can start to use it. So yeah, it's
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: just a really kind of enjoyable community I think to
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: be a part of, and a helpful one too, both
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: in DFS and just from a general perspective as well.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: So check that out through Twitter and alex Plica.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: One agree, one hundred percent. Still don't know the answer
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: to the question, but I think the key part you
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: said is like it's actually better to see the answers
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: people give and how people validate things and the why
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: and everyone thinks so differently on that. It's like you
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: have your reason for you have your click, but then
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: what's your reason for that click. That's what's actually sort
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: of works the mind a little bit better, and why
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: it's you know, it's always good to work the mind.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: I think mental fitness is something people don't talk about enough.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: We had fitness conversations around physical but oftentimes it's like
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: the mental side where people never can visualize their brain
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: being like flabby and overweight versus having a brain with
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: a six pack. It's just not something that you would
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: visualize out there very often because you don't see it.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: But it is, you know, a big, a big factor,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: and people that have sharper minds typically can can do
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: different things. We don't have it up yet, but there
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: is a new feature coming this week. Some in the
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: discord have already seen it, but we're gonna bait it
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: over on the site and doing some stuff with Claude
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: and AI on the showdown projections and stuff like that
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: and taking our data and then lifting it into a
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: different area. So yeah, I'm excited for that. It'll be
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: on the site this week again. If you guys want
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: to go check it out over chip Nation, you can
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: right now get all access for your first month less
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: than the price of golf on its own PGA only
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: that and get Savorsim included, which usually that's seventy nine
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: a month for just PGA only. So check it out
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: if you guys want to do that. You can find
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: me on x at, Toteg and Tambo. It was awesome
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: to be back with all of you. Make sure to
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: leave your comments. Our guy Lighty is giving away two
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: free months over the ship A nation that's gonna do
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: for this one, guys, thanks to Alex. Appreciate you guys
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: for watching for Alex. For myself, Toteg and Tambo, good
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: luck this week, lad ship it