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خلاصه صوتی کتاب هنر تحریمها، نوشته ریچارد نفیو در ۴۵ دقیقه · دانشگاه صوتی چکیده ماندگار | کتاب تاریخی سیاسی

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: The Art of Sanctions, written by Richard Nephew, one of
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: the founders of the U.S. sanctions against Iran during the
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Obama administration and a member of the Berjan.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Team.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: In 2012, at the same time as the final years
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government and in the fall of 1391,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the price of chicken in Iran was three times higher.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: It was not the lack of chicken, but the sanctions
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: of the banks that had blocked the entry of production units.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: And production chains.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Richard Neffio uses this example in his book to show
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: that sanctions are a time-consuming time that is painful and
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: can bring together the political decision-makers of the country. How
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: can you know that even a ball, The country promised
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: to change its behavior. This is the main question of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the book of the art of sanctions.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Nafiou says that.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Sanctions are not knowledge that has accurate and precise laws
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and principles. Sanctions are art because it must be inclusive,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: with appropriate conditions and be able to turn challenges into opportunities.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: The goal of sanctions is not only to harm the
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: country's economy. but a tool to change political decisions and
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: not to lose the goal in political fantasies. From the
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: point of view of Nafiou, the success of the sanctions
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: has two factors. The pain that sanctions create and the
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: goal of the country for resistance and tolerance of sanctions.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: The success of sanctions has no pressure, but is due
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: to the correct.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Design of it.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: If the goal is clear, pressure on sensitive points and
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the way of negotiation remains the same, the possibility.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Of change in behavior increases.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The importance of this book is that the writer is
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: not just a strategist. He himself had a direct role
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: in the plan of US sanctions against Iran. Therefore, this
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: book is a story of someone who speaks from inside
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the detention centers in the White House. Salam, I am
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Esfandiar Khudai, we are in Chikideh Mandegar, the important and
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: influential books of Iran and the world that is suffering
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: these days in our country. But you may not have
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the opportunity to read them, we will summarize briefly, accurately
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: and faithfully in the main text. We hope that every
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: part of Chikideh Mandegar will be like a university class,
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: a class with the presence of a writer, which narrates
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the history of his life, that is, his most important book,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: in a short time for us.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: Let's go back to the author of the book. Richard Neffio,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: unlike many.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Other authors of the era of sanctions, says from his
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: own direct experience, not just from the point of view
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: of the university. He went to Columbia University after years
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of presence in the Obama administration, and his practical experiences
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: in this book, the book of the art of sanctions.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: With the presence.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Of hundreds of articles and publications about the sanctions, many
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: of the sanctions still do not reach their goals. Nafiou
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: has seen this gap between theory and action and for
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: this reason he has gone to writing a book that
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: is not on the defense of a special policy and
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: not on the narrative of the Barjam negotiations. but wanted
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to show how sanctions are implemented, why some succeed and
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: some fail, and how a real politician should think about sanctions.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The art of sanctions was written in 2017. Those days
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: were in progress, but the opponents of this agreement in Washington,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Tel Aviv and Tehran were hard to fight for.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: And Donald Trump.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And threatened that if the agreement is not changed, he
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: will be expelled. In a statement from the book of
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the art of sanctions, Dennis Ross, a former president of
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama and one of the former diplomats in the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: United States, writes that Richard Neffio, with his direct experience
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: in design and implementation of sanctions, presents critical and effective analysis.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: His observations and conclusions can be a guide to politicians
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: and supporters and fans of foreign policy can also learn
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: from this book. But perhaps for the Iranian audience, the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: official translation of the book is more important than these
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: words by the center of the supporters of the Islamic
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Council Council. This center in 1397 introduced the book of
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the art of sanctions Siyasat Gozaran, Pajuheshkaran and Danishoyan Irani,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: with the logic and philosophy of one of the designers
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: of the sanctions against Iran, translated and published in Persian.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: In the course of this translation, it has been clearly
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: emphasized that the publication of the book does not mean
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the confirmation of the sources written, but the goal is
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: to know more precisely the design of the organization, the
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: execution and appreciation of the sanctions from the language of
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: one of the architects of this policy. Fasl-e awal, Mantegh-e
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Tahrim Richard Neffieu starts his book with a question. Why
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: do some sanctions reach their goal, but some others, due
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: to years of pressure, fail?
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: The answer is that.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Sanctions, more than a science with fixed and predictable rules,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: are an art. An art whose success is recognized by
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the country of the goal, It has a conscious design
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: and a continuous value of results. It then explains the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: basic concepts of the book. The meaning of prohibition is
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: sometimes for a limited action and sometimes for a large
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: group of economic, financial and commercial and banking limitations.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: And this laziness in.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Definition makes the value of the amount of success of
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: prohibition difficult. So it takes the term of the regime
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: of sanctions into account, that is, a set of laws,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: limitations and tools that have been designed to change the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: behavior of a state.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: In this square, two key concepts are formed.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Pain means the cost that sanctions place on the target
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: country and violence means the will and power of that
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: country to withstand this pressure. From the point of view
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: of NFU, the sanctions have the most chance of success,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: which will overcome the pain and at the same time,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: there should be a reasonable way to reduce or lift
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the sanctions, so that the country can trust it. He
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: even says that if the sanctions are only designed to
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: endure pain, without a reasonable way to change behavior and
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: lift the pressure, It is no longer a foreign policy
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: tool Rather, it is a kind of sadism disease Nafiou
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: considers the prohibition as a form of violence and violence
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Without referring to war And he is aware that the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: biggest mistake of the prohibitionists is mirroring That is, this
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: idea that other countries also think like them And show
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: similar pressure and action While every country It has a
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: different economic structure, priorities, capacities and talents. For example, the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: United States once imagined that sanctions on gasoline entry could
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: defeat Iran. But the result, according to their expectations, did
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: not go forward. Iran, with the improvement of the supply
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: of fuel and the increase of domestic production, reduced its
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: dependence on gasoline entry to a very low level. This
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: experience from the point of view of Nafiou shows that
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: without knowing the exact capabilities and motivations of the target country,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: even a warning to the obvious is also possible to
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: produce a different result.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: The second phase is Iraq.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: The time of sanctions is coming to an end. Nafiou
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: considers the Iraqi sanctions in 1990 as one of the
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: most important lessons in the history of sanctions. These sanctions,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: which only four days after Saddam's attack on Kuwait, have
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: severely damaged the Iraqi economy and have also limited the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: government's military power. But they could not cooperate with the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: international media. From the point of view of Nefi, the
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: main problem was not the lack of pressure, but the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: misunderstanding in determining the goal. The United States and Britain
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: had considered a more difficult standard than the other members
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: of the Security Council for complete cooperation with Iraq. And
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: because this standard was not met, they assumed Saddam would
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: also defend the mass killings programs. While, according to Nafiou,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: an important part of the first target, that is, the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: unrecognized weapon of Iraq, is actually was one of the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: reasons for the American attack on Iraq in 2003. Nafiou
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: considers four main mistakes to be the cause of these
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: sanctions against Iraq. First, Including the goal of sanctions that
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: gradually expanded from the Arab Spring to the change of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the Arab regime. Second, reducing Saddam's power for resistance. Third,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: applying as much pressure as possible from the beginning. So
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that there is no longer any possibility to establish the
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: gradualization of sanctions. Sanctions must be gradual and all cards
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: should not be spent together. until there is always a
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: new barrier for new pressure. And fourth, there should not
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: be a credible diplomatic route that shows that in the
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: event of a change of behavior, sanctions will really decrease.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: The main lesson of this period is that the success
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of sanctions, more than the intensity of pressure on a
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: bright target, has a precise recognition of the country's target
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: and the design of the stage of pressure, Without a
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: reasonable way to end the sanctions, even the most severe
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: pressures can be overcome and instead of changing the behavior
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of the land, the storms will be greater. The third
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: phase is the entry into the Iranian.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Case.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: The Iranian nuclear program, unlike the previous generation, has started
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: before the revolution. After the revolution, it was stopped for
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a few years, but since the late 1980s, 80 Miladi
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: or Shast Shamsi, with the purchase of technology and equipment
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: from Abdul Qadir Khan's nuclear network, a Pakistani scientist was arrested.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: The point of this case was settled in 2002 or
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: 81 Shamsi, when the existence of unannounced facilities in Natanz
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: and Iraq was closed and the International Atomic Energy Agency
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: started extensive investigations into Iran's nuclear activities.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: The Georgian government, unlike.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: The Arabian Gulf experience, which claimed that the presence of
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: mass killings was based on incorrect information and that the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: United States had actually entered Iraq, this time tried to
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: test the Iranian nuclear case in technical and feasible reports
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: to use the International Atomic Energy Agency, not only for
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the US intelligence agencies. This change has gradually attracted the
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: trust of Europe, Russia and China and has shaped the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: international community against the Iranian nuclear program. A journey that
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the Obama administration has continued with more concentration and strength
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: and solidarity. At this stage, the American goal was not
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program or the change
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: of the Iranian government, but the promotion of nuclear-sensitive activities,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: increasing transparency and promoting Iran to cooperate more with the agency.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Being clear and limited in this goal was one of
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: the main factors that attracted international support. On the other hand,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: The escalation of the nuclear deal with issues such as
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Iran's nuclear program, regional policies and parliamentary wars with Iran's
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: allies or the change of the Iranian government made it
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: very difficult for them to reach an agreement. Nafiou, who
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: is in the same period loyal to the Obama administration,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: shows how Washington's view of a comprehensive and comprehensive information and.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Road map.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: With economic and diplomatic pressure, changed. From this point on,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Iran turned into a field of discussion on the theory
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: of pain and struggle, which is the main pillar of
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: this book. The fifth season is the art of banning Iran.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Iran's sanctions have been the result of years of experience,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: reform and struggle that has reached today's situation. The sanctions
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: of one side of the United States began in 1990
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: during the Hashemi Rafsanjani era with the adoption of the
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Iranian-Libyan sanctions law. However, the policy of the government of
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Mohammad Khatami and the opposition of Europe to the sanctions
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: of the United States was prevented from taking full advantage
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: of those sanctions and could not bring about international cooperation.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: With the introduction of the nuclear case in the Ahmadinejad government,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: The United States changed its path and from 2006, i.e. 1385,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: started by the National Security Council to form an international
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: coalition against Iran and Iran's case went to the National
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Security Council. The new sanctions of the United States, instead
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: of targeting the direct oil and gas industry of Iran,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: which Nefiou calls it the economic monopoly, removing it for
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the global market is a huge cost, targeted the economic
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: areas of Iran, i.e. the financial and banking network. With
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: the effort of the Georgian government and the establishment of
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the 1747 Constitution of the National Security Council in 2007
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: and the ban on the Bank of the Sepah and
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the Sepah of the Reporters, many international banks, even beyond
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: the legal obligations of the United States, They have reduced
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the fear of crimes in cooperation with Iran and.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Iranian banks.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: One of the most important factors in this path was
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: the 6-month or 180-day oil purchases in the Barack Obama administration.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Based on this organization, countries have only temporarily forgiven the
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: US sanctions that reduce oil imports from Iran every 6
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: months and report to the US. This method, in order
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: to maintain the stability of the world oil market, has
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: gradually reduced Iran's oil revenues.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: Now, let me add a point outside the text of
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: the book.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: This is my personal analysis at the end of my
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: doctorate thesis at Tehran University on the issue of Iran's
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: sanctions against America and China. The research that in it,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the organization of 6-month or 180-day benefits Why?
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: For five reasons.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: First, with these benefits and the reduction of oil imports
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: from Iran, the global energy market did not suffer. Countries
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: could also buy oil from Iran, but every six months,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: as soon as they reduced their purchases, the removal of
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Iran's oil from the market was gradually created and without
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: any doubt. Second, Iranian trade partners took oil and replaced it.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: But they did not pay for it on the basis
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: of bank sanctions. This was a good example of cooperation
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: with sanctions. Because working with this organization was very easy.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: What business is better than this? You buy oil, but
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: you do not pay for it on the basis of sanctions.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Even if you are a Chinese company. Third, the money
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: accumulated by Iran in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Europe,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Iraq and other countries has been converted into the most
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: valuable US card in negotiations. According to the Iranian, American,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Russian and European officials on that day, about 100 billion
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: dollars of this money was released during the referendum. Even today,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: One of the most important, most sensitive, and most exciting
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: threats of US pressure in negotiations with the Peshmerga government
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: and Mr.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Qalibaf and others are.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: The same stolen assets of Iran. The money that the
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Islamic Republic needs is hard and the key to the
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: box is the hand of the US.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Fourth, this.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Policy of six-month benefits between Iran and its trade partners
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: such as China, India, Japan, Korea and others, created differences.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Inside the country, this question became serious when a large
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: part of Iran's oil revenues in foreign banks, which sometimes
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: have a friendly response to us, was suppressed and almost
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: all the great powers against Iran were united. Has the
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: time for a change of direction come yet? And the fifth,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: this six-month mafia organization established America's leadership over the world's
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: financial system because almost all players made money from it
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: except Iran. It may be said that this was a
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: kind of big service from the Islamic Republic to the
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: US financial and banking authority to the international system. In short,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: this organization kept the global oil market.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: From shock.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Both the commercial partners of Iran and the sanctions were
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: violated because they were making money. Both the seized assets
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: of Iran were converted into the most important credit card
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: or the U.S.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Cash reserve in negotiations.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Both Iran and the economic partners were created and the U.S.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: leader established the world's financial system more than ever. And
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: for this reason, in my opinion, the six-month benefits are
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: one of the most conscious were the architectural parts of
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the sanctions against Iran. We return to the book. Nafiou
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: shows that this gradual and intelligent design has increased the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: economic pressure on Iran and finally made the ground for
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the start of nuclear negotiations in Hassan Rouhani's government. Negotiations
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: that will take place in the future and will be
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: carried out in the next year. In the seventh season,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Iran becomes close to the negotiating table. In this season,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Richard Neffeu reports his own efforts and his colleagues in
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: the Obama administration between the years 2010 and 2013. A
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: period in which the results and the consequences of several
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: years of planning and implementation of the sanctions were gradually eliminated.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: The most important challenge of the Obama administration was how
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the oil exports and target the Central Bank of Iran,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: unless the global oil market and the world's economic disruptor
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: come together. According to Nafiou, the success of this stage
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: was not due to a negative decision, but as a
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: result of a few years of financial, banking, diplomatic and
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: legal pressure, which had gradually been reduced and showed itself
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: in the Iranian economy. The implementation of 180-day benefits, the
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: decrease in the rate of buying oil in Iran, the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: reduction of the access to the international financial system, and
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: the difficulty in the transfer of oil profits, has reduced
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the economy of Iran in the last years of Ahmadinejad's government.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: The price of real estate has decreased dramatically and the
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: pressure on the daily life of the people has increased.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: But Iran was not just a watchdog. Increasing the number
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: of centrifuges, developing a nuclear program, expanding the routes to
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: prevent sanctions, organizing the National Day of Nuclear Technology, promoting
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the economy of resistance, all efforts to maintain the regime
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and show this message that the Islamic Republic will not
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: surrender to pressures. Nefiou emphasizes that in any sanctions, Success
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: is not only due to the amount of pain and suffering,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: but also due to the ability and will of the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: country's goal for organization, resistance or opposition. He admits that
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: some of the most effective strikes were unsuccessful. For example,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the price of chicken in the Nourouz area of 1391,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: although the target of direct sanctions was not chicken, but
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the economic and financial pressure of the society was considerable.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: From this point of view, sanctions were not only a
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: matter of the government and banks, but the people felt
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: the effects of them on the value of money, food,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: drugs and daily living expenses directly. In addition to the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: increase in these pressures, the Obama administration tried to convey
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: this message that The goal of the United States is
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: not a war or a change of the Iranian government,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: but rather a solution to the nuclear problem that is
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: following the path of negotiation. Obama's message addressed to the
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: people and leaders of Iran, the distinguished representatives and the
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: support of the Oman Dialogue Channel, all of them are understandable.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Nafiou repeatedly asserts that sanctions can only result in the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: country's goal believe that in the event of a change
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: of behavior, there is a reliable and reliable way to
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: reduce pressure and reach agreement.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: Now compare it with today's Trump era.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Economic pressure, along with the existence of a reliable path
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: for negotiation, has led to the political atmosphere of those
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: days in Iran. In such circumstances, the solution to the
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: nuclear issue and the release of sanctions was turned into
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: one of the most important demands of the society and
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the main pillars of the presidential election of 1392. And
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Hassan Rouhani reached victory with the slogan of dealing with
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the world and promising the solution to the nuclear issue and.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: The release of sanctions.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Nefiou does not know this victory as a result of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: direct sanctions, but he believes that The economic pressure along
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: with being aware of the diplomatic path made it possible
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: to start serious negotiations between Iran and the United States.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Negotiations that eventually led to a resumption of the agreement.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: The eighth phase is the turning point. From pressure to agreement.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: In this phase, it is explained that the ultimate goal
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: of sanctions is not an endless increase in pressure.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Rather, it is reaching the peak.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: The peak means the moment when the cost of continuing
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the journey for the country's goal increases from the cost
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: of changing the behavior, that is, to the benefit of
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: changing its behavior and the ground for a political agreement
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: is released. The art of prohibition is not to increase
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the pressure to infinity, but to know when to convert
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: it into agreement.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: The author of six.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Principles of the design of a successful prohibition is as follows. 1.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: A clear goal 2.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: A precise recognition of the country of the goal 3.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Increasing the degree.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Of pressure 4. Now, the main cause of failure of
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: sanctions is as follows. First, low pressure, when economic pressure
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: is not.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Enough to change the behavior. Second, full pressure.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: A time when the sanctions are so severe that the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: target country shows dangerous or unforeseen actions instead of retaliation.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: A famous example of this is the Japanese oil sanctions
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: before the Pearl Harbor attack. A pressure that not only
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: did not change the behavior of Japan but also became
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: one of the factors of the military coup. And third,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: confusion in the target. That is, a time when the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: perpetrator himself does not know exactly what the result is.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: The same event that took place in Iraq. There, the
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: first target was Iraq's weapons, but gradually turned into the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: target of regime change.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: And in the end, the sanctions came to an end.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: In the continuation of Iran's experience, it shows that sanctions
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: always have only the results of the expectations of the designers.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: For example, the sanctions imposed by the IRGC on various
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: parts of the Iranian economy and also the strengthening of
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: the sanctions network. An example of these undesirable statements is
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: that every sanction must be considered from the beginning in
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: its calculations. Another important part of the season is the
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: serious disagreement in Washington. Barack Obama's government pursued a limited
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: and clear goal. Preventing Iran's accession to nuclear weapons and
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: reaching a consensus that could be implemented and tested. On
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the other hand, a group of politicians, lobbyists and opponents
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: of the negotiation, They insisted on issues such as the
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: change of government, Iran's nuclear program, regional influence and parliamentary wars,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: as well as other disputes such as human rights issues,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to enter into.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Negotiations.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: The Obama administration resisted these pressures because it believed that
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the more the demands are expanded, the less international consensus
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: will be and will disappear, and the possibility of reaching
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: The most important lesson in this phase may be this,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the negotiation has a chance of success that its goal
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: is clear. is limited and reliable and the opponent has
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: confidence that with the implementation of its commitments it will
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: really be removed from the pressure. If after every step
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: a new condition is issued or the agreement to change
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the Fahresti from the students is infinite, the trust will
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: go out of hand and diplomacy will block its place.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: From this point of view, the difference between the Obama
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: administration and today's negotiations with Trump Obama, with the pressure
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: of some lobbyists and the United States, did not come
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: up with other issues such as competition, anti-terrorism programs or
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: regional policies to enter the negotiations because he knew that
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: such a thing would at least reach the possibility of agreement.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: But it seems that one of the problems of negotiations
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: after the last war is the expansion of demands and
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the reduction of mutual trust. Jambandi Fasl Tahrim is not
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: a place for diplomacy, but a tool for reaching the
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: other party to the table of negotiation and diplomacy. The
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: success of a path of tahrim is not in applying
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the most pressure, but in identifying the same weak point.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: A place where pressure has achieved its goal and must
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: give its place to a stable and reliable agreement. If
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: this moment is not identified and every time a new
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: condition is issued, not only the agreement is lost, but
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the trust of the infringer is also damaged and the
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: trust that is the most important capital of every negotiation
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: is lost. 9.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: The next infringer.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: In the last chapter of the book, the view of
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Iran's case goes further and this question is asked that
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: does the pain and pressure in all countries work together?
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: The answer is negative. From the point of view of
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: the writer, there is no single version for the sanctions
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: because each country has its own history, culture, political structure
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: and security priorities. For this reason, success or defeat of
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the sanctions cannot be explained only by the amount of
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: economic pressure. Nefiou then tests his own opinion on the
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: sanctions of Russia after the Karimeh alliance. Of course, we
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: must keep in mind that this book was written in
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: 2017 and the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 had
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: not yet been launched. During that period, Western sanctions imposed
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: heavy taxes on Russia. The price of rubles decreased, foreign
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: investment fell and the country's access to technology and Western
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: financial resources was limited. However, the Kremlin did not retaliate
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: against Kareem. According to the writer, the main reason was
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: that Kareem's protection was not just an economic issue for Russia.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: but with the national security, historical identity and geopolitical location
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: of this country. Therefore, the crisis overcame the pain, unlike Iran,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: and even the sanctions on the national strength and the
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: increase of internal support from Vladimir Putin. The experience of
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: the following years also showed that even the most extensive
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: sanctions After the war of Ukraine, they could not prevent
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Russia from achieving its main goals.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: The same result is true for North Korea.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: This country may be the most polluted country in the world,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: but it is also continuing its nuclear and nuclear program.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: The reason is that the rest of the government is
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: much more important for Pyongyang's leaders than the people's economic welfare.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: The closed economy, long-term poverty, severe social control and the
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: government's readiness to pay heavy taxes have led to sanctions
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: not being able to change the way of handling this country.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: On the other hand, in the case of North Korea,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: the way of planning and recovery is much more obvious
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: than the idea that only with the enforcement of sanctions
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: it will be able to destroy the nuclear weapons. Jambandi-e-fasl
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: is that prohibition is not the only version for all countries.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it causes pain and makes the ground of agreement.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: But in countries where the issue of conflict with national security,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: historical identity or the rest of the government is affected,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: even the most severe economic pressures may not lead to
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: change in behavior. This is the most important lesson that
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: a writer of the comparison of the experience of Iran
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: with Russia.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: And North Korea gets.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: And the most important criticism to the book of the.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Art of sanctions. First criticism. The book does not see
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: the human costs of sanctions.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Niklas Mulder, the editor-in-chief and writer of the book The
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Economic Weapon, He believes that the art of sanctions is
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: more than just an unbiased approach, it is the practical
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: guide for the planters of sanctions.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Seyed Hossein Mirjalili also writes in his economic paper that
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: this book does not pay attention to the human messages
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: of sanctions.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Interestingly, according to the reports.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Of the National Organization, the sanctions of Iraq have caused
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the death of about half a million children. In Iran,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the sanctions have not only affected the economy in recent years,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: but have also affected the safety, employment, work, life and
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: future of millions of families.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: In my opinion, one.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Of the least seen messages of the sanctions is a
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: blow to the Iranian society. Because of the economic pressure
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of the 25-year-old sanctions, it has delayed the marriage of
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: millions of young people. or made it impossible, and has
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: caused many families to lose sight of their children, and
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: prevented the birth of more than 10 million children in Iran.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: But Nefiou's response, based on his book, is not aimed
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: at harming the ordinary people, but at changing the political
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: calculations of the government and politicians. And if there is
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: a real way to lift the sanctions, this pressure can
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: be caused by agreement. In response, it can also be
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: said that in practice, the people have a normal cost
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: of sanctions. Therefore, even if it reaches its political goal,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: that is, agreement, it cannot explain its human messages.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: Second point.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: The image of sanctions in the format of the program
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: has become more and more colorful. Trita Parsi, founder of
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the National Council of Iranians, NIAC, and author of the
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: book Losing an Enemy about the program of this book,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: argues that the program was not just a product of
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: economic pressure. The negotiations between Oman, diplomacy and the political
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: decision of the leaders of the two countries were decisive.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: In response, Nafiou himself also states that sanctions without diplomacy
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: will never lead to a permanent agreement and this response
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: of Nafiou is acceptable.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Third point.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: The theory of pain and stress for the explanation of
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: all cases is not enough. Clara Portla, an expert in
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the field of international sanctions, believes that success or defeat
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: of sanctions cannot be achieved only with two concepts of
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: pain and stress. In the end, Nefiou also admits that
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the struggle of the regime is very difficult and every
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: case must be consistent with the conditions of the same
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: country in a sustainable, affordable and resilient way. But the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: fourth criticism, this book has overlooked the role of the
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: opponents of Tawafog and the players of Salis. This fourth
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: criticism is my personal criticism, dear friends. In my opinion,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: one of the greatest weaknesses of the book is that
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: it is beyond limit. the sanctions are implemented correctly and
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the two countries reach an agreement, everything will be fine.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: But Barjam's experience has shown that the success or defeat
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: of the agreement is not only dependent on the will
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: of the two governments, but also to the calculations of
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: the Salist players and ideological opponents that the negotiation is
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: also closed. From Israel and the Israeli lobbies in Washington
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: to the last-minute ideologies and the events of Tundra in Iran,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Israel and the United States, the book does not answer
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: this basic question that if the opposition is going to
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: cooperate with the influence in Tehran, Washington and Tel Aviv
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: have it, and if they put it together, how will
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: smart sanctions.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Reach their goal?
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Now, outside of those human costs, the exit of Trump's
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: government from the election and the defeat of this agreement,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: this analysis.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Is more than ever. And now, the.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Collection of the book. Richard Neffioe ends the book with
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: this memory that Abzārhāye tahrīm dār tūle tārīkh taghīr kardān,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: ammā mantiqe tahrīm sābet mūndē. O mipursē, chē kassī dār
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: ātene bāztān tasawur mīkār rūzī tahrīmī bār asās mohlat-e bāzpardākht-e
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: bedehī-e shirkatā-e yek keshvār bē bānghā-i dār hezārān kīlūmetr dūrtār
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: tarrāhī bēshē. Bā in hāl, asl-e tahrīm hamūn mājarā-e, ījād-e dārd,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: to change the behavior in the face of the country's
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: goal for resistance. According to him, sanctions are a time
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: of success that not only creates pressure, but also has
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: a reasonable way to end it. The plan of sanctions
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: must know when it has reached its goal and have
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: the courage to end the pressure. Because if after every
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: achievement a new condition is met, The trust in each
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: other goes away and the prohibition of diplomatic tools becomes
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: a barrier to diplomacy and agreement.
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: Perhaps the most.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Significant image of this book is the claim of Hizartu.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: The prohibition should not create a barrier for the opponent,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: but should be designed by Hizartu to get out of it,
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: from the path of change of behavior and agreement. If
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: all the ways of exit are closed, the result may
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: not be a retreat but a greater resistance or even
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: a face-to-face.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: And irreversible advance.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: In the end, the value of this book is in
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: knowing the logic of one of the main designers of
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: American sanctions. The art of sanctions shows that sanctions are
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: a way to change the political calculations of the opponent.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: and perhaps the best way to face any obstacle is
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: to know the exact logic of it.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: At the end, I sincerely thank you for your attention
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: and cooperation.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: The preparation of the summary of each book, from reading
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: and writing to publishing, requires at least a week of
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: hard work. However, all the content of Chikid Mandegar is
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: available in all formats, and we want to remain the same.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: But being sustainable does not mean being without a cost.
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  Speaker 1: Our budget is only provided by your personal support, and
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  Speaker 1: it is provided by the development of the project. From
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  Speaker 1: the preparation of materials to the production of equipment, for example,
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  Speaker 1: using a simple microphone instead of an active handphone can
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  Speaker 1: improve the sound quality for you as well. If you
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  Speaker 1: Mandegar is with you every week.
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  Speaker 2: With a new book.
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  Speaker 1: Likewise, in every platform that hears this summary, Follow Chekid
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• 45:07
  Speaker 2: And before I go, let.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Me recommend you to listen to the summary of another book.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: The book of Iran's sanctions in relation to America and China.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: My own writing, Esfandiyar Khodai, which was published in 2017
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: with the same book of sanctions art in the German
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Lembert publications. This book is the result of my doctoral
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: thesis in Tehran University, which I defended in 1996. The
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: summary of this book and my doctoral thesis is in
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: your hands.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Thank you. Goodbye.