Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / How Ethiopia's renewed conflict could trigger a wider Red Sea crisis

Transcript

How Ethiopia's renewed conflict could trigger a wider Red Sea crisis · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Has a new war reached Ethiopia's capital? DW sources have
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: confirmed reports of explosions heard overnight Wednesday in Addis Ababa.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: An opposition-linked source claims a new alliance of armed groups
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: carried out several drone strikes, including some targeting the military's headquarters.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: The government has yet to officially comment. Now, if confirmed...
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: The strikes would mark the first known drone attack by
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: anti-government forces on the Ethiopian capital, further inflaming fears that
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: renewed fighting in the north of the country could escalate.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So where are things as we stand? Well, hostilities resumed
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: in September between Ethiopia's federal government and armed opposition groups,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: shattering a four-year peace deal. This week, the government and
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: their allies claimed to have captured a strategically important town
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: in the Tigray region. That's after Tigrayan rebel forces advanced
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: on federal positions in the state last week. Now, the
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Reuters news agency has confirmed the location of this eyewitness
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: video as Alamata in Tigray. Now, the latest fighting has
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: spread from Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhar and comes
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: after several opposition groups, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: announced that they were joining forces to oust Prime Minister
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Abiy Ahmed. Ethiopia's government has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: of backing the country's armed opposition groups. Now, all three
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: deny that, raising regional tensions alongside another key flashpoint, access
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: to to the Red Sea, the waterway at the center
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: of this map. Landlocked Ethiopia had a coastline for decades
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: until Eritrea broke away. Since then, Addis Ababa has repeatedly
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: argued that restoring access to the Red Sea is vital
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: to its security and prosperity. Eritrea views that claim as
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: a direct threat to its sovereignty. Now, the critical trade
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: route is already under pressure from a renewed conflict across
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: the water in Yemen and the war in Iran, where
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is ongoing. Now,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: diplomats have also raised fears for the whole Horn of Africa,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: with the potential for individual conflicts and instability to stretch
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: from Sudan to Somalia and the Red Sea. through which
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: around 14% of global maritime trade currently flows, and with
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: the narrow Bab-Elmendab Strait at the nexus of these regional
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: rivalries and global power plays. And to provide us insight
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: into the developments in Ethiopia, we've invited Tadali Lemma back
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: onto the program. She is the founder of the monthly
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: news magazine, Addis Standard. Welcome back, Tadali. How serious is
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: this latest escalation?
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me, Christine.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: It is serious enough, not only because this is a
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: conflict that was in the making for almost more than
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: three years after Pretoria peace agreement was signed, but also
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: now there is a coalition of armed groups who have
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: signed an agreement or a sort to join forces together
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: against the federal government and its allied forces.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: So it is serious.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: And in the case of the Tigray, the federal government,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: it's a continuation of the war that has never ended, really,
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: even though there was a session of hostilities agreement.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: So for that reason, I consider it to be very serious, Christine.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: And who would you say is responsible for this escalation?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Who's provoked it?
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: You know, it really doesn't matter who provoked it at
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: the last minute because this has been in the making.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: Everybody knew that this conflict was going to happen. So
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: it is the failures, the cascade of failures that led
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: to the last minute. So it really doesn't matter. The
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: federal government says the Tigrayan authorities provoked it. They are
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: saying they were provoked. What we have seen is that
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: there was a troop built up by the federal government
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: surrounding Tigray over the past two to three months. And
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: this has a clear indication that a conflict was to
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: ignite any minute at any time.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: So who started it now doesn't really matter at all.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: As you were mentioning earlier, the TPLF in Tigray has
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: now formed an alliance with other rebel groups from different
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: regions of the country. They've said their goal is to
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: overthrow Abiy Ahmed's government. How strong is this alliance? Is
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: it a serious threat to the government in Addis Ababa?
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: You know, it's early enough to make a judgment of that.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: But as to the seriousness, I think the one thing
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: that I keep saying is that it is not how
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: fragile this alliance is going to be, but it is
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: the idea that they have agreed to avoid the horizontal
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: fighting between themselves, because some of the armed groups have
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: been at odds in the past. For example, the TPLF
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: and the FANU in the Amhara region were direct participants
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: of the war in 2020-2022.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: The FANU were on the side of the federal government.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: So there was a risk that this horizontal conflagration of
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: conflict across Ethiopia would be even more serious. So the
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: fact that they agreed to avoid that is a starting point.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: How this is going to develop, it's only been barely
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: a week and a half now, We are monitoring that
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: very closely.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Now, there are growing fears at Sudan of a wider
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: regional war. The government in Addis Ababa has accused neighbouring
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Eritrea of backing the TPLA forces in Tigray. Sudan and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Egypt could also be drawn in. But if we were
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: to focus on Eritrea for the moment, what is its
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: position in this latest escalation?
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true, Christine.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: The army general a few days ago clearly accused not
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: only Eritrea, but also Egypt as financing, supporting and pushing
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: for this war. In terms of Eritrea, you know, Eritrea,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Isaias Afourke and Abiy Hamid were on the same side
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: during the war in.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: The Tigray region.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: But The fates have flipped since then, and Eritrea and
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: Ethiopia are at odds now. And Ethiopia is constantly accusing
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Eritrea of supporting Tigrayans. And Tigrayans have created sort of
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: like an alliance. The details of it is not really
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: too much known.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: As of yet.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: But beyond Eritrea, as you say, Ethiopia sits at the
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: center of this highly interconnected and already fragile Horn of Africa.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: It's bordered by Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: So this renewed war in the northern part of Ethiopia
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: could draw in easily neighbors. Eritrea can easily be drawn.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: In fact, there is an accusation from the Afar regional
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: government given to the Al Jazeera two days ago that
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Eritrea is a part already in the conflict in Afar
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: region in the northern Ethiopia. And so the chance that
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: this is going to draw in foreign countries is high,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: particularly given the existing tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea. And
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: the conflict already raging in Sudan, which Ethiopia is a
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: part through its support for the RSAF, the Hamidis soldiers,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: is another dimension that we need to look into. And
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: I think that's precisely why the African Union itself has
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: warned that, The escalation risk is further destabilization of the region.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I'm quoting the African Union on this one. So the
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: risks are very high, Christine.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: And if we sort of go beyond the Horn of Africa,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: you've got the Iran-U.S. conflict and the impact that it's
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: having on the Strait of Hormuz. Then you have the
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: war in Yemen escalating. affecting another important transport route for
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: oil and goods. That's the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Red Sea. How would a wider war in the Horn
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: of Africa create further global disruption?
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: That's a very good question, Christine.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: So this is the wider geopolitical dimension if we need
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: to look into it. So if you look into the
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: geography of where the fighting is happening today, Ethiopia's northern
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: border is only a few hundred kilometres from the Red Sea. Yes,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: the Red Sea is of Eritrea's coastline, but Ethiopia has
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: about 60 kilometers from the Red Sea. So while Eritrea
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: and Djibouti sit directly on the approaches to the Bab al-Mandeb,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: so it's one of the world's critical maritime choke points
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: that is seeing a growing crisis recently. So this maritime
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: choke point connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: And so if an Ethiopian conflict becomes entangled with Ethiopia-Eritrea,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: for example, the existing tension that I said, or the
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: wider security competition around the Red Sea itself. I think
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: the consequences could extend beyond Africa, even beyond the whole
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: of Africa, in my assessment. So this is going to
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: affect maritime security, trade and stability of the route, connecting
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: Europe itself. So the Middle East and Asia, not to
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: mention that. So that's why, you know, preventing another full
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: scale war. Everybody's very nervous at the moment. Every diplomat
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: you talk to or I talk to are nervously monitoring
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: whether this conflict is going to ignite the entire Horn
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: of Africa and the Red Sea Chalk Points.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: In Ethiopia for years. And I just wondered if you
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: think that the international community is underestimating the danger of
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the Horn of Africa?
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: It is absolutely underestimating it. We have seen, for example,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: this conflict in the making for more than three years.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: The Pretoria Agreement was unraveling ever since it was signed.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: And the Pretoria Agreement not only did not have a
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: guarantor of itself, the actors that facilitated the conflict did.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: were not interested in following through where the agreement itself
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: was falling apart.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: What happened in between? The African Union did.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Not have any report with regard to monitoring and verification mechanism,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: even though the office was established. And even though some
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: officers mandated by the African Union itself were deployed in
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: Tigray to monitor the disarmament aspect of the Tigrayan fighters,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: and also the co-concurrent exit of foreign forces from the
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: Tigray regional state. So there has not been any follow-up
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: report that was filed by the international community, by the
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: African Union, which is sitting there in the heart of
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: the capital city, Addis Ababa. So I think the international
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: community has been undermining this. But what is also, you know,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: sort of like the chicken coming home to roast is
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: the fact that Not only was the Tigray conflict a
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: gateway to this conflagration of conflicts, but also, you know,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: the inclusion into the other side of Eritrea.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: No one has done anything.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: The U.S.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: Has a lot of leverage, but the U.S.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Is interested in leveraging its diplomacy through commercial interests.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: So the U.S.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Is cultivating relations both with Eritrea and Ethiopia, uninterested in
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: the diplomacy and the security, but in the business and
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: commercial aspects of it. The European Union has not really
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: said anything. In fact, they were not even a part
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: of the Pretoria Agreement itself. So I think there is
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: a major issue when it comes to undermining the impact
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: of this conflict from the international community.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Those insights there from Sidali Lemme. As always, Sidali, thanks
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: very much. We appreciate you.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. Thanks for having me, Christine.