Latest / Ground Signal FM / Ground Signal — September 7, 2026

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Ground Signal — September 7, 2026 · Ground Signal FM

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  Ground Signal, Markets and Economy. September
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  7, 2026. I'm Tenet. U .S. markets are dark today.
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  It's Labor Day. The New York Stock Exchange,
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  NASDAQ, and bond markets are all closed. But
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  the world doesn't pause. And neither does this
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  briefing. Because the real action happened on
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  Friday, the August jobs report landed harder
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  than expected. 162 ,000 nonfarm payrolls added,
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  unemployment holding at 4 .1%. On the surface,
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  a solid number. But... the market read it differently.
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  According to Reuters, short -term rate futures
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  moved almost immediately. The probability of
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  a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September
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  15 to 16 FOMC meeting jumped from around 55 %
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  before the report to roughly 59 % after it. The
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  two -year Treasury yield rose about 7 .6 basis
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  points on Friday. The 10 -year was already sitting
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  near 4 .8%, a level Reuters and Investing .com
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  describe as the highest since mid - 2023, and
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  the jobs number gave bears more ammunition to
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  push it higher. This is the ground state. The
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  Fed is in a hold with hawkish risk setup. Rates
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  are at 3 .5 to 3 .75 percent. The September meeting
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  is eight days away, and every piece of incoming
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  data is being read as either permission to hold
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  or justification to hike. That's a signal three
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  environment for anyone with exposure to rates,
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  real estate, or leveraged positions. Equities.
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  The S &P 500 closed Friday at 7 ,718 .60, down
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  0 .4%. NASDAQ at 26 ,506 .99, down 0 .3%. Both
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  were pulling back from earlier gains as bond
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  yields climbed following the payroll's print,
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  according to AP News. The VIX, the market's primary
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  fear gauge, closed Friday at 14 .53 per SIBO
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  data. That's relatively low by recent standards.
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  It tells you the market isn't panicking. It's
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  watching. With U .S. markets closed today, the
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  relevant price discovery shifted to Asia. The
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  Nikkei 225 had a strong session, up about 2 .1
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  % to close near 66 ,400, according to AP News.
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  Chipmakers led the rebound in Tokyo and Seoul,
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  which suggests global tech sentiment held up
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  even as U .S. yields applied pressure. The Hang
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  Seng moved the other way. down about 0 .8 % to
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  close near 25 ,458, according to the same AP
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  news reporting. Hong Kong continues to price
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  in a more cautious growth outlook. Fixed income
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  and rates. Governor Christopher Waller spoke
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  on September 3rd. The Federal Reserve published
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  his remarks directly. He said that if incoming
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  August data, meaning the jobs numbers we just
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  discussed, and the CPI print due this week, show
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  continued disinflation, he'd support holding
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  rates steady at the September meeting. But if
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  that improvement proves fleeting, a rate hike
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  would be appropriate. That framing matters. It
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  tells you the bar for a hike is not impossibly
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  high. A CPI print that surprises to the upside
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  this week could shift the probability calculation
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  sharply. The 10 -year yield at 4 .8 % already
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  prices in elevated inflation expectations and
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  heavy government borrowing. According to Reuters
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  reporting picked up by Kitco, the bond sell -off
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  since early September has been driven by a combination
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  of energy price pressure, rising inflation worries,
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  and structural supply concerns around U .S. debt
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  issuance. For listeners holding bonds or bond
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  -sensitive assets, this is a signal three. Not
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  panic, but not comfortable either. The September
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  FOMC is a live event in a way it hasn't been
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  for several months. Currencies and FX. The dollar
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  is broadly firm. Here's where the key pairs stood
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  as of Sunday evening, based on wise and exchange
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  rates data. USD to Philippine peso, 62 .75 pesos
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  per dollar. That's near the record lows the peso
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  touched earlier this year, and it's meaningful
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  for the large Filipino remittance economy. Dollars
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  stretch further, but import costs bite harder.
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  USD to Indonesian rupiah, 17 ,629. Stable for
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  now, but a Fed hike would likely push this pair
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  higher. USD to Thai baht? 32 .93 per dollar.
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  The bot has actually strengthened modestly over
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  recent weeks, driven partly by tourism recovery.
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  USD to Malaysian Ringgit, 4 .05 per dollar. The
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  Ringgit has made a quiet comeback this year,
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  down from the 4 .40s we saw in early 2026, reflecting
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  improved current account data and resilient commodity
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  exports. USD to Brazilian Real, 5 .13 per dollar.
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  Brazil's fiscal story is complicated. but the
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  real has been range -bound in this band for most
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  of the quarter. And the Peruvian sol, approximately
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  3 .35 to the dollar, based on exchange rates
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  data showing the September range between 3 .35
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  and 3 .37. Stable, but nominal stability here
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  masks real pressure from elevated import costs,
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  given Brent crude above $96. For Argentina, the
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  blue dollar informal rate was sitting around
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  1 ,540 to 1 ,545 pesos per dollar in early September
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  per el crinista. The gap between the official
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  rate and the blue market remains a defining feature
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  of Argentina's economic reality. Overall dollar
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  picture, firm but not aggressively strengthening.
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  The next catalyst is CPI and the FOMC decision.
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  See you right, Joe. Bitcoin at $79 ,332 as of
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  Sunday, down 0 .71 % on the day. Ethereum at
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  2 ,486. Solana at 104 .65, down 1 .75%. These
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  figures reflect Sunday pricing, crypto trades
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  around the clock. A Glassnode on Chain report
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  from week 35 of 2026 described ETF turnover as
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  subdued, with the market trading in a defined
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  range. The macro backdrop, specifically the 10
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  -year treasury yield climbing toward 4 .8%, is
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  reasserting pressure. That aligns with research
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  published in Science Direct this month arguing
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  that Bitcoin's correlation with equities rises
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  during stress periods and that the ETF era has
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  not turned Bitcoin into a safe asset. What that
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  means in plain terms, when real rates rise and
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  risk appetite tightens, Bitcoin doesn't reliably
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  act as a hedge. it tends to move with the risk
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  off trade, not against it. The SEC's August 18th
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  proposed rule, Regulation Crypto Assets, adds
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  a regulatory layer that institutional players
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  are watching closely. If that rule progresses
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  toward adoption, it could materially reshape
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  how crypto -linked investment vehicles are structured.
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  Signal level for crypto. Signal 2. Range bound,
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  with macro and regulatory catalysts pending.
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  Commodities. Brent crude is trading near $96
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  to $97 per barrel. based on exchange rates and
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  COMEX data from Sunday. That's a level that keeps
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  inflation risk elevated. Fuel prices at this
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  range feed directly into CPI, freight costs,
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  and manufacturing inputs globally. Gold at approximately
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  $4 ,387 to $4 ,429 per ounce, depending on the
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  source and timestamp. Gold's continued strength
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  reflects the bond market tension. When real rates
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  are rising and growth is uncertain, gold tends
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  to hold its bid as a hedge against policy error.
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  Both commodities are at levels that complicate
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  the Fed's job. High oil keeps headline inflation
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  sticky. High gold signals that a portion of the
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  market isn't fully buying the soft landing narrative.
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  Mobility and opportunity signal. Three updates
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  for globally mobile listeners. Thailand's destination
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  Thailand visa, the DT Vive, remains in effect
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  as of September 1st, confirmed on Thai embassy
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  pages. This is a five -year, multi -entry visa
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  that allows stays of up to 180 days per visit.
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  It's designed for remote workers and nomads.
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  The most recent embassy update shows no changes
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  to eligibility or fees. Thailand remains one
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  of the most accessible long -stay options in
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  Southeast Asia, and the bot's modest strengthening
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  means your dollar buys slightly less than it
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  did six months ago, worth factoring into cost
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  -of -living calculations. Philippines Digital
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  Nomad Visa. The framework exists under Executive
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  Order 86, which authorizes the DFA, the Department
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  of Foreign Affairs, to issue DN -5s to remote
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  workers with clients or employers outside the
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  Philippines. Implementation timelines remain
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  unclear, but the legal structure is in place.
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  And the DV -2026 Diversity Visa Lottery deadline,
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  September 30th. According to the State Department
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  directly, DV -2026 eligibility ends at the close
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  of fiscal year 2026. Visas may become unavailable
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  before that date if annual allocations are exhausted.
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  If you have a case pending this is a hard deadline,
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  signal 4 for anyone in that process. Forward
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  signal. Three developments to watch over the
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  next 24 to 72 hours. First, August CPI due Thursday,
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  September 10th. This is the single most important
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  data point between now and the FOMC meeting.
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  According to market expectations, a hot print
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  above the prior month would push rate hike probabilities
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  above 70%. A soft print would give the Fed cover
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  to hold. The Fed has signaled it's data dependent.
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  This is the data it's most dependent on right
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  now. Signal 4. Second, the September 15 to 16
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  FOMC meeting. The rate decision comes Wednesday
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  the 16th. According to CME Futures pricing as
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  of Friday, the base case remains a hold at 3
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  .5 % to 3 .75%, but a hike is now more live than
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  it has been at any point this quarter. Watch
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  Fed Chair Powell's press conference language
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  as closely as the rate decision itself. The forward
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  guidance will determine whether markets price
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  in a November hike as the next domino. Signal
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  3 through Signal 4, depending on how CPI lands.
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  Third, crypto's reaction to CPI. If Thursday's
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  inflation print surprise is higher, expect Bitcoin
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  to test the $76 ,000 to $77 ,000 support band
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  that Glassnode identified as the lower bound
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  of the current range. If it holds soft, Bitcoin
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  may attempt a move back toward $82 ,000 to $84
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  ,000. The ETF flow data from Farside, tracking
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  funds including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's
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  FBTC, will be the signal to watch on whether
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  institutional money is adding or pulling back.
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  Signal 2, escalating to Signal 3 on a hot CPI.
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  That's the market signal for September 7th. CPI
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  on Thursday, the FOMC eight days away. The clock
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  is running.