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Can Trump and Musk bring peace to Ukraine? · The Front

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Monday, November eighteen. Elite Japanese Marines are set to
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  Speaker 1: join US Marines on Australian soil, training with our military
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  Speaker 1: of a new alliance to counter China's increasing territorial ambitions,
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  Speaker 1: and Defense Minister Richard Miles says he's determined to create
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  Speaker 2: And Israel.
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  Speaker 1: Maya's Christmas windows in Melbourne, even after Maya canceled its
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  Speaker 1: official launch event. You can see how the protest unfolded
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  Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dou h'en Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump bring peace to Eastern Europe. The President elect certainly
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  Speaker 1: thinks he's the man for the job, and his new
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  Speaker 1: right hand man, Elon Musk, could be a significant part
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  Speaker 1: of negotiations. Today our chief international correspondent Cameron Stuart on
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  Speaker 1: the prospects for ending Russia's brutal war.
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  Speaker 2: I'll get it done, I'll get it negotiated. I'll get
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  Speaker 2: out we got to get out.
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  Speaker 1: That's Donald Trump doing what Donald Trump does, talking a
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  Speaker 1: big game.
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  Speaker 3: I will prevent World War three, and you are very
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  Speaker 3: close to World War three.
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  Speaker 2: Biden and Kamala got us into this war in Ukraine,
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  Speaker 2: and now they can't get us out.
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  Speaker 1: He's talking about the war in Ukraine, which pieces wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: have even started if he'd been in charge. Trump made
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  Speaker 1: a campaign issue of his critique of America's spending on
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  Speaker 1: Ukrainian President Volodim Zelenski request the weaponry and equipment.
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  Speaker 2: Every time Zelenski comes to the United States, he walks
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  Speaker 2: away with one hundred billion dollars.
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  Speaker 1: I think he's the greatest salesman on it. And Trump
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  Speaker 1: sounded a lot like he admired Russian President Vladimir Putin
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  Speaker 1: and Russia's formidable appetite for destruction.
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  Speaker 2: That's what they do, is they fight wars. As somebody told.
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  Speaker 1: Me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon.
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  Speaker 3: That's what they do. They fight and it's not pleasant.
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  Speaker 2: But you know, we've given them.
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  Speaker 1: But what if Donald Trump could actually end this war?
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  Speaker 1: You know who thinks it's possible, Vladimir Zelenski.
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  Speaker 3: I believe that the war will end, and it will
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  Speaker 3: not end in the abstract, but there's no exact date. However,
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  Speaker 3: the world and faster with the policy of the team
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  Speaker 3: that will now lead the White House. This is their approach, team,
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  Speaker 3: their promise to their society switch and it is also
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  Speaker 3: very important to them Mitzangka.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Cameron, I've
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  Speaker 1: been intrigued in recent days to hear volodimye Zelenski, the
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  Speaker 1: leader of Ukraine, talking on what's seem like optimistic terms
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  Speaker 1: about the possibility of the war with Russia ending next year.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been really interesting. Just so shortly after Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump was elected as the incoming president, we've had Zelenski,
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  Speaker 2: president of Zelensky, say that we need to ensure that
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  Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine ends next year by diplomatic means.
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  Speaker 2: And he has also said that the election of Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump is likely to mean the end of the war
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  Speaker 2: will come quicker. And of course this comes on the
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  Speaker 2: back of Trump saying in a very Trumpian manner that
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  Speaker 2: he would sort out the Ukrainian war within twenty four hours,
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  Speaker 2: which of course no one believes. But Trump's point in
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  Speaker 2: making this again in a Trump being way, is that
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  Speaker 2: he is going to invest a lot of time in
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  Speaker 2: getting a solution to this conflict very very quickly. So
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  Speaker 2: it was really illuminating that Zelenski said that.
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  Speaker 1: I think before the war, cam Trump was criticized for
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  Speaker 1: being close to Vladimir Pushin, or at least being someone
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  Speaker 1: who admired Vladimir Pushin. Where do you think he stands
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  Speaker 1: now on this question of Russia versus Ukraine, given that
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  Speaker 1: we've watched two years of a very brutal and horrible war.
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  Speaker 2: Well, Trump, because he's very opposed to America financing the war.
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  Speaker 2: It's costing a lot of American money. He thinks it's
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  Speaker 2: an endless war. He hates the concept of an endless war.
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  Speaker 2: He thinks he is reasonably close to Vladimir Puchin. Of
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  Speaker 2: course we haven't really tested that of late. So he
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  Speaker 2: thinks he could try and wangle Putin into a deal
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  Speaker 2: and Zelenski into a deal over the war. And the
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  Speaker 2: basis of this clear is that, of course the front
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  Speaker 2: line in Ukraine has been frozen now for well over
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  Speaker 2: a year. I mean incremental gains one way, the incremental
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  Speaker 2: gain is the other way. No one is really getting
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  Speaker 2: anywhere here. There's two thoughts. The traditional Western thinking on
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  Speaker 2: the war is that you should not give any see,
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  Speaker 2: any territory to Vladimir Putin, because to do so would
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  Speaker 2: be to effectively reward him for an illegal invasion of
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  Speaker 2: a neighbor. That's really been the paramount Western thinking is
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  Speaker 2: certainly by the foreign policy hawks. However, Trump's election I
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  Speaker 2: think gives weight to the alternate version, which of course
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  Speaker 2: is that this is a deadlock and you are better
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  Speaker 2: off to strike a deal where roughly the border the
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  Speaker 2: new border of Ukraine is where the front line is now,
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  Speaker 2: which means that the Russians get the territory on the
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  Speaker 2: eastern side of the Dombas region and Ukraine will lose
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  Speaker 2: that extra territory. Now, remember a very important aspect here
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  Speaker 2: in this discussion is that the Russians actually controlled about
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  Speaker 2: ten percent of Ukraine before the war. That includes the
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  Speaker 2: Crimea and also the Russian backed forces in Dombas. And
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  Speaker 2: so if the line was orn now as a ceasefire line,
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  Speaker 2: a Russia we control about twenty percent of Ukraine. So
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  Speaker 2: in other words, the Ukraine would seed ten percent that
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  Speaker 2: they didn't already control. And I think that is the
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  Speaker 2: area where Trump might see some possibility for negotiation.
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  Speaker 1: You can see why it might be in Vladimir Zelenski's
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  Speaker 1: interest to come to the table here if Trump is
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  Speaker 1: going to come into office and cut off the vast
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  Speaker 1: amounts of money that America gives Ukraine presently. But what
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  Speaker 1: would be the incentive for Vladimir Putin to come to
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  Speaker 1: the table cam Is it just about a territorial gain
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  Speaker 1: for him?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, certainly the outcome of the war, if the
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  Speaker 2: front line was frozen where it is now is a
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  Speaker 2: disappointment probably to Putin compared to where he started the war,
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  Speaker 2: when he obviously wanted to take over, to get the
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  Speaker 2: Kiev take over Ukraine. But the reality of Vladimir Putin
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  Speaker 2: is still very difficult. They are losing a lot of men,
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  Speaker 2: the Russians. There's various estimates, but we're talking a massive
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  Speaker 2: amount of capualties. The war is becoming increasingly unpopular in Russia.
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  Speaker 2: He has to mobilize new troops, which is very unpopular
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  Speaker 2: with Russian mums and dads. There's a limit to how
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  Speaker 2: much Putin wants to keep fighting this war, I think,
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  Speaker 2: even by his standards, But certainly he has an advantage
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  Speaker 2: in manpower and finance, he could keep going. I think
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  Speaker 2: that what Trump will try and do is appeal to
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  Speaker 2: Putin's vanity in a way and say, look, you know
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  Speaker 2: you've got more than you had. You've now got a
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  Speaker 2: direct land corridor, if you recall, the Russians have gotten
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  Speaker 2: that into Crimere because of the territory they've taken. And
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  Speaker 2: this is the time to stop the war. And he's
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  Speaker 2: going to have to hope that Putin pulls back a bit,
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  Speaker 2: because Putin actually did annex three regions and he hasn't
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  Speaker 2: actually got full control of those regions. So Putin would
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  Speaker 2: have to have some faith saving at his end, and
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  Speaker 2: Claire also Zelenski would have to have some faith saving
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  Speaker 2: as well, because he has never ever verbalized the concept
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  Speaker 2: that Ukraine is willing to give up an inch of
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  Speaker 2: its territory, and so that would have to be a
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  Speaker 2: big compromise from Zelenski's point of view as well. And
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  Speaker 2: the problem for Zelenski is that, unlike Putin, he is
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  Speaker 2: running out of troops, and if the US starts to
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  Speaker 2: squeeze the finances, he will start to round out of
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  Speaker 2: money as well.
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  Speaker 1: One of the triggers for the war was Ukraine's desire
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  Speaker 1: to enter NATO, and so you can see this war,
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  Speaker 1: I suppose cam as a part of Vladimir Putin's resistance
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  Speaker 1: against NATO's expansion, this great enemy that he perceives taking
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  Speaker 1: over the rest of Europe. What would happen to that ambition?
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  Speaker 1: Would there be any prospect that Ukraine or some of
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  Speaker 1: those other Eastern European countries could join NATO after this?
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  Speaker 2: I think the big carrot that would be dangled in
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  Speaker 2: front of Putin for a deal like this would be
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  Speaker 2: a promise that Ukraine does not join NATO for at
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  Speaker 2: least a decade, perhaps twenty years or something like that.
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  Speaker 2: Because Putin you can't imagine having invaded Ukraine on the
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  Speaker 2: basis on the pretext that Ukraine was seeking NATO membership.
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  Speaker 2: You can't imagine he would ever strike a peace under
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  Speaker 2: arrangement where Ukraine automatically gets that membership. So I think
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  Speaker 2: that the deal would be that Ukraine would have to
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  Speaker 2: promise not to see NATO membership for X amount of years,
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  Speaker 2: and I think that's the only way that they'd get
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  Speaker 2: the deal done. But it will be an absolutely huge
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  Speaker 2: bargainingship in any negotiation what happens to Ukraine as far
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  Speaker 2: as NATA membership is concerned.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, what role will Elon Musk play in peace negotiations.
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump presents himself as someone who's a deal maker,
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  Speaker 1: who basically takes the principles of being a New York
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  Speaker 1: property developer to the world stage. You know, he can
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  Speaker 1: make a deal with anyone, and that's what he does best.
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  Speaker 1: It would be quite a remarkable turn of events, wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: it cam if he could solve this European land war,
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  Speaker 1: which has caused so much death and destruction.
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  Speaker 2: It would And you know, while it might seem unlikely,
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  Speaker 2: it is certainly possible. Fresh eyes, a fresh administration, and
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  Speaker 2: fresh ideas can help change a deadlock in lots of situations.
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  Speaker 2: You can see that both the Russian side and the
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  Speaker 2: Ukrainian side are getting slowly exhausted by this war that's
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  Speaker 2: going nowhere. So you could argue that maybe we're a
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  Speaker 2: couple of years too early. They probably have to beat
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  Speaker 2: each other up for another two years with no game
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  Speaker 2: before the exhausted parties finally come to the table. But
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  Speaker 2: what Trump's trying to do is effectively look ahead and say, well,
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  Speaker 2: that's going to happen anyway, so let's preempt it. Let's
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  Speaker 2: get an earlier result here. So look, I think it
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  Speaker 2: is possible that the election of Trump might actually lead
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  Speaker 2: to some sort of breakthrough. Certainly not in the very fast,
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  Speaker 2: clean nature that Trump has promised on the campaign trail,
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  Speaker 2: but you could see the start of a negotiation process
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  Speaker 2: quite soon that might eventually lead to something in the
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  Speaker 2: longer term.
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  Speaker 1: An intriguing figure on the fringe of this Ukraine war
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  Speaker 1: has been Elon Musk. For two years now, since the
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  Speaker 1: beginning of the war, Ukraine has been asking for him
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  Speaker 1: to turn on his Starlink satellite service so that Ukrainians
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  Speaker 1: in the field and in their homes can still access
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  Speaker 1: the internet and communications services despite the Russian attacks. Now
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  Speaker 1: it seems Musk is very close to the White House,
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  Speaker 1: if not actually in the White House. What do you
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  Speaker 1: think that's going to mean for the dynamics of the war?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, how curious is when Trump spoke to
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  Speaker 2: Zelenski after Trump on the election, Elon Musk was in
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  Speaker 2: on the core, which just shows the sort of influence
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  Speaker 2: he's got at the moment with Donald Trump, and his
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  Speaker 2: fingers are involved to some degree through the satellite communications
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  Speaker 2: in the Ukraine War on both sides. So Musk is
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  Speaker 2: an intriguing figure in the new Trump administration. He's obviously
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: got this new portfolio for cutting waste, but he seems
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: to be a bit modern that doesn't He seems to
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  Speaker 2: be almost emerging at this minute as Trump's right hand
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  Speaker 2: man and the whole series of things, including Ukraine.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Donald Trump's
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: cabinet is taking shape and we've got all the latest
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: announcements and all the fallout twenty four to seven at
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