Latest / The Smart Cookies podcast / SUPERSTITION and IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOUR with Prof. Stuart Vyse
Transcript
- Zaza: Stuart Vyse is a behavioral scientist and writer with a PhD in psychology and BA and MA degrees in English literature. He's a fellow of the Association for Psychological Science and the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, as well as a contributing editor for the Skeptical Believing in Magic, The Psychology of Superstition won the William James Book Award of the American Psychological Association. In 2020, he wrote a book called Superstition published by Oxford Press who also released his latest book The Uses of Delusion, Why It's Not Always Rational to Be Rational. As an expert on superstition and irrational behavior, Professor Vyse has been quoted in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and many more. Professor Vyse, welcome to Euro Trash. Stuart Vyse: Thank you. It's very nice to be here. Zaza: I dabble in tarot cards. So in the spirit of the conversation we're about to have, I pulled out one card just before we hopped on the call, just to see how our meet is going to go. And the card that I pulled out is called The World. Stuart Vyse: Oh. Zaza: And let me check what the meaning is in my little booklet. I did say I only dabble in tarot. And it says the following. divinatory meanings, success, satisfaction, a spiritual and practical sense of achievement, wondrous new possibilities. Fantastic. Stuart Vyse: Wow, Zaza: There you have it. Stuart Vyse: very positive. Zaza: So, right, so let's circle back to this at the end to see if this particular type of irrational behavior worked out for us. Stuart Vyse: Okay. Zaza: All right, since most of us instinctively do a lot of this stuff without asking ourselves where it really I was thinking we would begin with a couple of cases of common superstitions and then you would explain where they originate from if that would be okay. For example, why do we knock on wood for good luck? Stuart Vyse: First, I want to just have a quick cautionary statement, which is that we don't know anything about these things. No one said, I am now going to introduce a new superstition, and then they didn't write it down and file it with the government as I'm the inventor of this superstition. We don't have that kind of data. to know for sure. It's all speculation based on folklore, on what we know about folklore. So this particular superstition is supposed to come from an era when people thought a very long time ago that trees had spirits in them and that if you knock on wood you could consult the spirits or awaken the spirits. to whatever it was you were hoping for at the moment. So that's, it is some kind of a tree related, you know, belief system from long ago. But that one in particular is a hard one to nail down. It does sustain itself quite a bit. because it's a very social, my impression is that people don't tend to knock on wood when they're alone. It's mostly done when you're with other people as a gesture of a shared hope, an expression of a shared hope. And so I think that keeps it alive quite a bit. It works its way into conversation in a way that other superstitions don't. Zaza: Wow, I never thought of that before. But now that I think about it, yeah, I never do that alone. I always do it Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: when there's other people present. Also, are superstitions then a little bit like jokes? Nobody goes, hey, I thought of a joke. I'm going to tell it to you. Everybody says, I heard of a joke. You know, Stuart Vyse: Right, Zaza: let Stuart Vyse: yeah, Zaza: me tell Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: you Stuart Vyse: mean, Zaza: this joke. Stuart Vyse: I know that people do write brand new jokes, and you can tell sometimes that it's brand new, but it's like any other piece of folklore. I mean, in the sense that, you know, trying to come up with any kind of custom or whatever that has been handed down over the centuries, unless there are documents that can support it. we don't know. And so, for example, I mean, just to get into this question a little bit more, people have done some serious research on the superstition about the number 13. And they've done it by going back into newspapers and documents that exist, the ones that do exist. They only go back a couple of hundred years, for the most part. But they've done research looking at the way the number 13 came up. as a superstition over the years. And its application has changed over time. We can get into that particular one later. But that's one example where there is a little bit of data that can be applied. But in knocking on wood, not the same. There just isn't a good record. And so people speculate as to where it came from. Zaza: What about a black cat crossing the street? Stuart Vyse: Well, this one we have a little bit more information about. I think that's a bit more solid. Black cats, this goes back to medieval Europe, and the idea of black cats being associated with witches, that they were part of the sort of culture of witches and witchcraft. and there was a belief that a black cat could actually be a witch that has been transformed into a black cat. And so that's presumed to be the origin of that one. It's interesting though that black cats have some kind of an appeal in and of themselves, and there are some circumstances in which I believe in Germany where black cats are positive symbol under certain context that they're a good luck symbol. But most of us think of them, certainly here in the US, as being bad luck. And if one crosses your path, some people engage in a countermeasure to try to get rid of the bad luck by turning around and going through your path again without the cat, to try to... wash yourself of whatever bad luck there might be. Zaza: So the same superstition can either mean bad luck or good luck in Stuart Vyse: Yeah, Zaza: a different cultural Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: context. Stuart Vyse: mean that is true. Yeah, that is true. There are certainly great variations on them, depending upon who. And of course, one of the most, it also can be a personal choice. You were just going to say, I'm going against the grain. For example, the most common one that I always the singer Taylor Swift, has whom I'm sure you've heard of, Zaza: I did. Stuart Vyse: it was born on December 13th. That's her birthday. She has adopted the number 13 as her good luck charm. Her Twitter handle is Taylor Swift 13. She has reversed it for herself. When you think about it, especially with numbers, are born, like Taylor Swift, babies are born on the 13th day of the month and that for those parents, that's one of the happiest days in their lives, right? So you can apply a positive valence to a bad superstition if you wish and it can become, you know, good luck for you. Zaza: Did you see Dumb and Dumber with Jim Carrey? The Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: movie. Stuart Vyse: don't think I've ever seen the whole movie. I think I've seen clips of it. Zaza: I've seen it way too many times, which is slightly embarrassing, but I still enjoy it to this day. I haven't come across this superstition in Europe, but in the movie there's a gag about spilling salt. It's supposed Stuart Vyse: Yes. Zaza: to bring bad luck, so you have to toss it back across your shoulder to counter that. Stuart Vyse: Right. Yeah, I mean, that is another one where there are plausible theories as to why that's the case. But again, it's one of those folklore things where we're not quite sure. So what I have heard on that one is that salt was a very valuable commodity. It was used to store meat and keep it from spoiling. And that as a result, and people were paid, I think Roman soldiers were paid in salt. Sometimes someone suggested that the word salary comes from the same root. I won't vouch for that. But in any case, it was a valuable commodity and therefore to spill it was thought to be a really bad thing. It's also the case that consecrated salt is sometimes used in religious ceremonies. And consecrated objects like salt and holy water have always been given sort of magical powers. You know, people would steal them from the church because they thought they had magical powers and they would put them on their crops or do other things with them. So anything that was consecrated in a religious ceremony, by a priest or whatever was thought to have magical power. So that's another possible source for that salt superstition. Zaza: Interesting. I'm in Japan right now and salt even though it's a completely different culture different history You know wasn't connected to Europe It has a similar meaning here. It's pew. It's supposed to purify. So when you go to the sumo matches, you know, these big guys Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: wrestling Before they begin they throw salt in the air to purify the stage Stuart Vyse: Wow, that's interesting. Zaza: Yeah, Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: very interesting Anyway, let's circle back to the number 13, which makes my hair, as much as I have left, literally stand up when I see this number. Why is that? Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, this is thought to be, I think, one of the most famous superstitions in the world, widely held. I think that I would argue that the evil eye is also up there. But the, and again, we're guessing, right? We're guessing a little bit on this. But Many superstitions do have religious origins to them. And so this is one that from what I've, there are several theories about this. There are three major theories, but if you can believe it for one superstition, but the one that I believe is the most accurate probably, the one that probably is right is is the Last Supper, where there were 13 people at a table. And Zaza: Alright, Stuart Vyse: the super. Zaza: so Jesus and his disciples. Stuart Vyse: That's right, yes, a total of 13 people. And then he was betrayed by Judas and later crucified. So that concept of 13 people at a table or a group of 13 people is definitely, an origin of the superstition. And over time, it just got liberated from the table and a. applied where never, you know, it's the thing about numbers is that we encounter them all the time, right? They just happen to pop up all over the place and in normal life. And so although the people have gone to great efforts to make sure we don't run into the number 13, which is which we should talk about. But anyway, it got it got liberated from the table. And then Friday, you know, people always ask about Friday the 13th as being a particularly unlucky day, I tend to get calls from reporters as of Friday the 13th. I don't even have to pay attention to when they're coming because I will get a call to comment on Friday the 13th. But Fridays in Europe was known as Hangman's Day and hangings took place in particular on Friday. And so Friday had its own reason. for being unlucky, it was thought to be unlucky to start any journey or venture on a Friday. And so that is the reason. And so whenever the two actually come together, then you get this double bad luck effect that goes on. It's interesting, there was a group of people in the US, and I believe there was a branch in... England as well, that was a 13th club. This is at the beginning of the 20th century. And they were trying to counteract the bad luck. And they would deliberately have dinner parties with 13 people at a table. They would set up tables and they would have people. But one of the interesting things is that they also advocated in the U.S. very strongly for Saturday to be a day off, for the two-day weekend, right? So that it used to be that you that people would only get Sunday off because it was the Christian Sabbath, right? But they argued and lobbied for Saturday to be a day off as well, in part to take away the bad feelings about Fridays. You know, that Friday would be a good day because it would be the day before you get to get off. So it's a really interesting history that associated with that. Zaza: And sometimes, like you said, people go pretty far. And then in hotels, you wouldn't have the 13th floor, right? Stuart Vyse: Yeah, I mean, it's still very much the case. I've very rarely, of course, I pay attention to these things now, right? When I go stay at a hotel that could have a 13th floor. And I can't tell you, very, very rare that an office building or a hotel has a 13th floor. It's also true, and I challenge you to pay attention to this as you travel around the world, but I think that it's very rare that you will find a gate 13 at an airport. Zaza: Interesting. Stuart Vyse: There are some, but often you'll see the numbering jumps from 12 to 14, because no one wants to leave through gate 13 on an airplane. And so this is a case where economics actually sustains superstition. It's a simple business decision. If you're building a building and you want to rent space on the building, it's like, all I have to do is change the numbering on the elevator panel. And I don't have to deal with, you know, someone who's reluctant to take a hotel room on the 13th floor or rent an office space on the 13th floor. There are some courageous people who have tried to fight against this and have deliberately, you know, taken, you know, kept the 13th floor and taken rooms there. But I think overall, in a capitalist society like ours over here, it's just like, let's not deal with it. If we just call it 14, no one will know any better, and we won't have to deal with the problem. Zaza: Yeah, I'm hoping we kind of keep it that way, because I'm a bit of a scaredy Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: cat when it comes to this stuff. Not gonna Stuart Vyse: Okay. Zaza: lie. Stuart Vyse: All right. Zaza: Beyond these collective shared tropes, when it comes to superstitions, we also have, like you said, our own private personal choices. Like, our own little private superstitions. Even if just for a little bit, doesn't have to be the entire lifetime. Sometimes you go out and something in your mind tells you that you really shouldn't step on the line today. Maybe that's Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: just me. So Stuart Vyse: No. Zaza: I suppose I wonder where the superstition end and OCD begins. Stuart Vyse: Oh, good question. Well, I think that let's just take a look at the numbers. I mean, in the United States, they haven't done too many surveys recently, but in the United States, most of the surveys that I've seen have suggested that in a survey where someone's asking you the question, about 50% of Americans will report that they're at least a little bit superstitious, right? Very few, I would say around half of Americans would say, I'm not at all superstitious, which means that the other people are at least a little bit. Superstition is hugely, it can't be abnormal behavior because too many people are doing it. It's got to be part of normal. behavior. Whereas OCD is a very different thing. For most people, and this is sort of a controversial thing to say, but I would argue that for most people the superstitions that they have, especially the positive ones, the good luck superstitions, probably benefit them to some degree. They don't harm them in any way unless they get excessive and they interfere with your everyday life. Zaza: Oh, here we go, yes. Stuart Vyse: where it gets to be too much. I mean, if you are staying in bed all day and not leaving the house on Friday the 13th, then you're on the borderline. I would suggest that you might wanna see somebody about that. But... Zaza: I'm not Stuart Vyse: You know. Zaza: staying in bed. I am going out, but I'm not going to have a good time. How about this compromise? Stuart Vyse: Okay, I think you're fine. I think it's too bad. I mean, I hope you get over that. Zaza: I'm fighting the good fight. Stuart Vyse: Yes. Zaza: I have to be honest. On one level, I'm originally from Eastern Europe. So on one level, I'm like a Slavic grandma. I'm a sucker for all this stuff, Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: from everyday superstitions to zodiac and palm reading and tarot and everything else of the sort. I've just always kind of been that way. I know that at least part of it is culture, because I grew up around a lot of old ants who would interpret dreams and tell ghost stories and prophesize from coffee grounds, which was really popular back home. On the other hand, I'm a big proponent of skepticism. Whenever there's a big claim about, I don't know, UFOs or God or anything supernatural, I believe in that old adage that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, which honestly is then never really produced, which only reaffirms. know, this part of my brain. Also I host this little podcast where I meet with scientists and world-class intellectuals like yourself all the time which only reinforces rational thinking. But somehow these two completely opposing worlds live in my head with no real problem. How is that possible? Stuart Vyse: But first of all, let me just say that you're not unusual in that respect. I think that there are many people like that. And it sounds like you maybe have made a transition of some sort or, you know, you've learned a lot of stuff along the way that has maybe made this contrast obvious to you, you know, this conflict within yourself. I, you know, there is. The best way I've heard to sort of make sense of this is in terms of Kahneman and Tversky and other people have talked about the dual processing theory of cognition, which suggests that we have these two systems within us going at the same time. One is sort of quick and intuitive and it's not. particularly deliberative or calculating. We make quick judgments with it. System 1 is called, has a very clever name, System 1. Then the other one is slower but more. Deliberative and calculating so you know when you need to figure out how much we do tipping here in the u.s I'm not sure it varies throughout the world as to whether you tip your waiter or the restaurant Zaza: In Europe, you tip your waiter if the service was exceptional, but Stuart Vyse: Yeah, Zaza: it's not like a general Stuart Vyse: exactly. Zaza: rule. Stuart Vyse: Yeah, here it's a general rule because we don't pay people actual salaries. And so, when you're having to calculate, you know, 20% of your bill for the tip, that's system two, right? Doing the actual math in your head, serious math. When you're deciding what to eat at the restaurant, it's much more intuitive and it's like, I feel like this, that's probably system one, right? And the thing is, is that the two can be in conflict. One of the things that Kahneman and Tversky, Kahneman wrote this book called Thinking Fast and Slow, which is about these two systems. And one of the things that their amazing line of research showed is that, the two come up with different solutions. Sometimes they have different answers. And in the case of superstition, taking that theory, a woman named Jane Risen at the University of Chicago has suggested that superstition is the same way because it has been observed many times that people will say, like, I know this is crazy. I know there's nothing to this, but I'm just going to feel better. if I go ahead and do it, right? Because it just is off my table that way. That happens, I think, a lot with the negative, the fearful superstitions. I quoted a guy in the first book I ever wrote on superstition. There used to be this thing called chain letters. When we actually used real mail, you know, paper mail. where it would say that you would receive it, usually anonymously, the person who sent it to you didn't want to reveal themselves. So you would get this letter in the mail and it had this long sort of story in it. And it said you need to copy this letter, make 10 copies and send it on, or else something horrible is going to happen. You know, expensive car repairs or some kind of an accident is going to happen to you. And very rational people said, look, I know this is silly, but if I don't do it, I'm going to feel bad, and so I'm just going to do it. And so that is a direct expression of this conflict, right? That the rational side of you knows it's silly. There can't be a cause and effect relationship between these two things. But your intuitive emotional side to think about it differently. And so it's very common. And I would also say, and this is the controversial part, it's common and I'm not worried about you, right? I think that the fact that you have this conflict within you means that you're fine. What I worry about is the true believers who don't have that conflict and are... are committed to superstitious beliefs and are not evaluating them. Those are the people who will go to natural... medicine or alternative medicine instead of going to a regular doctor and so forth. Those are the ones who might reject vaccines, you know, rather than, you know, looking at the evidence. So, anyway, that's my sermon on that conflict. Zaza: Very interesting and it kind of makes sense because I do feel that another system kind of takes over and like you said it is much quicker and much more implicit. You just it's some Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: sort of a flow almost you just go with it, you know, Stuart Vyse: Exactly. Zaza: and you know, it's probably a little bit of pardon my French bullshit, but you're still like, you know, it can hurt. Stuart Vyse: Yeah, exactly. Zaza: I have a story on this. Stuart Vyse: Okay. Zaza: About two years ago I visited Thailand for the first time. Have you been? Stuart Vyse: No, I have not. Zaza: Okay, it's fantastic. I fell in love with the place immediately. Anyway, one evening I went to a big temple in Bangkok, the capital, and there was a fortune teller sitting outside. And of course, I couldn't resist. He had a little desk and even a laptop. And he was quite busy, so I had to wait for a while. And when I said that, he also had like a picture of him with the king of Thailand. Stuart Vyse: Wow, wow. Zaza: So I was like, this guy is the Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: real Stuart Vyse: Ha Zaza: deal. Stuart Vyse: ha ha. Zaza: And when I sat down, he looked me straight in the eyes and he told me that I should do a voice recording of everything that he's going to say, because there's going to be a lot of predictions and they're going to be very specific and precise. So he did some calculations on his computer and then drew a little bit on a piece of paper. I don't really know what he was doing. And then he told me the following. He said that the job I was doing at the time was amazing. So I should hold on to it because I'm going to get rich if I do that. He also said, I'm gonna break up with my girlfriend very soon and the last thing he told me was that I'm not gonna move, I'm gonna stay where I am. Within a year, I got fired from my job, I married my girlfriend and I moved. I moved to a different country. I still have a good laugh at that story Stuart Vyse: That's Zaza: because Stuart Vyse: great. Zaza: the buildup was so convincing. Stuart Vyse: Exactly. Zaza: I Stuart Vyse: Record Zaza: was like, this Stuart Vyse: it! Zaza: guy is a may I found the one guy in the world that's Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: going to tell me everything like a Wikipedia article, you know, everything Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: that's going to happen. Oddly enough, though, the whole affair didn't completely destroy my willingness to try again. You know, I saw a palm reader on the street like two months ago here. It was just for part of it is just for the fun of it. Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: But I'm still curious how come this stuff survives in us even in the face of total disaster. Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, obviously, I mean, first of all, you pointed to just the fun part of it, which I think that has been encouraged in many cases. I know that people go sometimes to palm readers in groups, almost like an outing, a social outing. So there's that. But since the beginning of time... we've wanted to know what was coming. We wanted to know the future divination is as old as civilization. And especially, you know, if you think about the ancient world, like people just did not understand how things worked. You know, they there was no scientific understanding of the calendar. Hardly, you know, they knew sort of that things changed over the year. But, you know, they whether there was no predictions of whether there's I mean, they're just and disease. I mean, it was just. a very random and harsh world. And so knowing your fate and knowing what was coming became very, very valuable. And I would argue that it still is today. We tend to look. to more rational sources, we now know how to predict the weather scientifically. And so we go to them and we'd have doctors and we understand medicine better and so forth. But even in our advanced world, you know, there's stuff that just happens randomly, you know, serious stuff. I mean, you know, relationships, by the way, the fact that he predicted that you would break up with your girlfriend, you know, that the relationships are very variable, right? They are unpredictable. how they're going to go. And so it's a common fodder for palm readings, psychics, and so forth. I have to say this guy, to his credit, he made very concrete predictions, right, which I think is not the standard mode. You know, generally speaking, astrologers and others make fairly vague statements about, you know, what's going to happen and so forth. And so he was he was pretty out there. Maybe he knew he was never going to see you again, but Zaza: I mean, Stuart Vyse: probably. Zaza: he did have a computer, so it was only fair that he makes very precise predictions, you know. Stuart Vyse: Yes, exactly. So anyway, Zaza: I should go back there. Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: What broader implications does this have for general human psychology and the convictions that we hold deep in our minds then? Stuart Vyse: superstition Zaza: Yeah, yeah. Stuart Vyse: in general or... Zaza: And on my case, for example, still this sort of need or how should I put it? This sort of, yeah, need for this. activities survived even though this guy told me everything was wrong. How does this play out with our convictions then? Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, Zaza: Apart from superstitions, deeper Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: convictions. Stuart Vyse: Well, yes. Zaza: Sorry, go ahead. Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, this is again, the future, right? And the anxious world that we live in, we do, although we have much more control over our lives, people are still quite anxious from day to day because they don't, the economy, disease. accidents, relationships, all these things are quite variable and unpredictable. So I think that many things, not just superstition, but obviously religious beliefs are also. grounded in this sort of anxiety about the world and your place in it, you know. And so we love certainty. We would generally speaking, we prefer certainty over uncertainty, even when the certainty is about something unfortunate, you know. There are some rare cases where people choose not to know whether something bad is going to happen in the future. But But generally speaking, we want to know what's going to happen so we can plan for it. And also we would like the outcome to be good. And so the one thing about superstition is positive superstitions are aimed at trying to bring about a better life and good luck and so forth. And many religions in various forms offer the same guarantee, maybe even in a much larger way, that if you practice appropriately... you will go to the land of milk and honey and have a wonderful afterlife and so on. That's a pretty big incentive to hold in front of people, to keep them doing things that are, in fact, just actions that have no special value. So I think that's it. I mean, the religious offering the guarantee of religion is much bigger. You know, it is, you are part of a large... entity, you have meaning in that sense, someone is watching over you. There are all these ways in which religion offers many benefits. Superstition is a little bit more concrete and localized, right? In the moment, this is going to be better for you. And however, you know, in between that, you might think of divination, you know, this knowing the future, that's a pretty big. offering if it's true, and as opposed to simply like having a lucky air flight for the next hour or two. I think there is a relationship in the sense of lowering your anxiety in the moment, offering you some vision of the future that may be comforting. and in the case of religion, offering much more than that. Zaza: Since it seems that evolution left so much of our capacity to be irrational in, when it could have made us a bit more cool-headed, does that mean that irrational behavior has its uses? Stuart Vyse: It does definitely have its uses, I believe. And again, this is controversial. I think that we have these skills that are pretty unique. I mean, I tend not to want to separate us in a real sense from other species, but it's undeniable that we have the ability to, we have an imagination, right? We have the ability to think about the future and to worry about our deaths. and to imagine worlds that we can't see and so forth. I think that a side effect of that is that we have irrational imaginings as well. And so that is the case. But some of them do definitely help. I mean, I have argued that superstition, positive superstitions, Undoubtedly, people would not do them unless they felt better to do it than not to. And people definitely do them. So if you have grown up, you know, knocking on wood or doing other things to bring on good luck, and that's part of your history and your background, you're likely to do that because it'll make you feel better in the moment. And And so there's a simple benefit of that. I mean, I did write an entire book on things that I think are what I refer to as useful delusions. And so some of them are fairly modest. The one that I opened the book with is an example of people who sometimes, when a very dear loved one dies suddenly. for a time they have a belief that they're coming back. And it's not a religious belief. This happens for people who are not necessarily religious. There are two examples I give in the book of people that I am aware of who had this belief. and one was religious, the other one was not at all. And yet they had very similar experiences. And it goes away, it tends to go away, it's a temporary thing. But it's, you know, no one in this person's hour of great tragedy and need would say, you know, snap out of it, he's not coming back, right? That would be the wrong thing to do. And it's clear that it helps these people gradually deal with the loss and eventually they... they set it aside. Joan Didion, the American author Joan Didion, wrote a book called My Year of Magical Thinking, or The Year of Magical Thinking, in which she talks about this exact phenomenon. So, I mean, that's a delusion, but it's useful in that period of time for those people. Not everybody would do that, obviously. Many people will not have that experience, even though they love their partner the same way. It's something about these people's upbringing their own psychology. But for those people who do, I can't argue that it's a bad thing. Zaza: Did this Stuart Vyse: And Zaza: belief... Stuart Vyse: there are other examples in the book of this. Zaza: Okay, we're gonna come back to that, but did this belief just overtook them and they actually believed it or they decided Stuart Vyse: Yeah, Zaza: that they believed this? How does that Stuart Vyse: I know. Zaza: work? Stuart Vyse: I mean, it was Zaza: This Stuart Vyse: very, Zaza: type of delusions. Stuart Vyse: it was very straightforward. I mean, there, you know, Joan Didion reported that she left her husband's shoes in the closet because he would need them when he came back. And a woman that I knew many years ago in college had the same experience. And she said to me just very matter of factly, I think he's just going to walk through a door someday. It was a very poignant thing to say that I just think he's going to walk through a door and come back. So, you know, it was not something that they chose to do. It was something that, it was a feeling that they had. That person had been so much a part of their lives that the absence was just strange. And... and that's how they processed it. And, you know, I think in both cases, neither one of them knew, I mean, neither one of them had any illusion that they knew the person wasn't coming back, but they still had this feeling. It's not unlike your double consciousness Zaza: Right. Stuart Vyse: sort of concept. Zaza: What are some of the other useful delusions that you Stuart Vyse: Well, Zaza: tackle in the book? Stuart Vyse: I talk about the domain of overconfidence. You know, that we Zaza: I could Stuart Vyse: tend Zaza: use Stuart Vyse: to, Zaza: some of that, Stuart Vyse: well, Zaza: yes. Stuart Vyse: I'm sure that in certain circumstances, you are overconfident. And this is like many of these, Zaza: I'm gonna take Stuart Vyse: yeah, Zaza: this as a compliment. Stuart Vyse: well, you would have to be. We all are. You wouldn't get up in the morning. But Zaza: Sadness. Stuart Vyse: there is. There is some evidence that not all circumstances, overconfidence can be quite damaging. I talk about, for example, overconfidence at the point of starting a war. If you think that you can just start a war, and I'm thinking of an American example of that. But if you think that you can just start a war and it'll be over very quickly, you better think again, right? This is a time not to be overconfident, to be pessimistic. And the consequences of that mistake could be very real. But in everyday life, in, let's say you're, if you are currently operating a business, right? You know, it's interesting, the business model, the business example is quite good, right? Because at the beginning, before you launch the model, it's sort of like launching a war. You should be very pessimistic. You should think about all the worst case scenarios and you should make sure that you have an answer for all of the bad things that might happen, right? Before you launch it. Once it, because of course in the United States, at least they say that, you know, within five years, 50% of all businesses fail, right? But, but. But once you've launched it and once you're underway, right, this is where overconfidence in the face of obstacles is of benefit because it will keep you motivated, it'll keep you going, it will be contagious with your employees, they will also feel confident and positive. And so there is good evidence to suggest that under certain circumstances, you know, overconfidence being unrealistically positive about yourself and your ability to succeed can be sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. So I do write about overconfidence in the book. Zaza: But Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: still Stuart Vyse: also Zaza: you have to know in which context Stuart Vyse: That's right, that's Zaza: you should Stuart Vyse: right. Zaza: utilize overconfidence. Stuart Vyse: Yeah, it's a nuanced thing. Zaza: I hosted professor of climate hazards from England, from the UK, Professor Bill McGuire a while back. And he said a lot of us when it comes to climate change, I should really say climate's breakdown, it's more appropriate. That a lot of us are overconfident. and prone to magical thinking that just some sort of technological solution is going to fall from the sky. Stuart Vyse: Right, I agree with that. Zaza: And in this context, it's very obviously inappropriate and not only that, it's destructive Stuart Vyse: Right, Zaza: to ourselves. Stuart Vyse: right, right. No, it's true. I mean, the climate change problem is very serious and the problem is that it seems very distant and it seems overwhelming. And I mean, it has a very number of psychological aspects to it that make it a difficult problem. It's one thing if you have a leaky roof, right? And your roof is leaking. You know, it's happening now, you can fix it now, right? But climate change is... going to be worse in the future, it requires change now. You have to care about people who may not be around. You have to care about other people rather than just yourself. It's a very difficult problem. So you're right. That's true. I do not talk about climate change in my Zaza: Yeah, Stuart Vyse: Useful Delusions book. Zaza: right, right. Are there any more useful delusions that Stuart Vyse: Well, Zaza: we could Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: benefit from? Stuart Vyse: mean, I can skip to there are quite a few there. I talk about overconfidence and pessimism with respect to health. I Zaza: Pessimism, Stuart Vyse: also talk. Zaza: okay, can we stop that for a second? Stuart Vyse: Sure. Zaza: Pessimism, when it comes to, I'm a massive hypochondriac. So Stuart Vyse: Okay. Zaza: how could I better, is that, but that's not what you're referring to, is it? Stuart Vyse: I am to some Zaza: You Stuart Vyse: degree. Zaza: are? Stuart Vyse: Yeah, to some degree. So I talk about pessimism, not so much hypochondria, but pessimism with respect to, again, the context matters. It's very similar to the work situation. So there's the situation of an impending problem, a future problem for which maybe you should be preparing. Right. And, and there's also the context of a current problem. I'm now, I'm now no longer healthy and I want to regain my health. Right. So in the case of, of like a looming problem, like a virus that's coming. Right. Or, or let's say you're a smoker, right. For whatever reason you've chosen to start smoking, there's a looming problem out in the future, possibly. And so those are situations where overconfidence is not a good thing. Right. Overconfidence is, is going to lead you to not take action that you should. Right. Oh, I'll be fine. The virus doesn't seem like it's a big deal. Right. Um, and, uh, but, uh, if you are on the other hand, if you're sick, if you're sick now. and you want to regain your health. Your goal now is to regain your health. Let's say you've had a heart attack, you've got some illness. That's where overconfidence again is a positive thing because it will get you going. It will keep you moving, motivated to do whatever therapy is required and so forth. If you're pessimistic in that moment, you're not gonna, you're gonna just like. hang in there and not do anything. So, overconfidence, you know, people who have cancer, right, and are terminal, often have this sort of irrational belief that they're going to be fine, right? And at the very least, that tends to make their lives at that time better, right, than if they were pessimistic, because they get up and do things and whatever, right? And they have a sense of optimism. So But interestingly, in the looming danger situation, and there is some actual studies of this in Japan since you're there. In Asia, they are more familiar with viruses certainly than we were in the US. We used to look at people, Asian folks on airplanes wearing masks and we say, what are they doing? Why are they wearing these blue things on their faces? They had more experience with that. There have been some studies in which SARS or one of the viruses was circulating in the and it was the pessimistic people. They call it defensive pessimism. They worried that it would hit them. They took all the actions that would protect them, like wearing masks and so forth and avoiding certain situations. This is a case where the problem is that generally speaking, it feels better to be optimistic. That's one of the things that makes us naturally optimistic. It feels good to predict a happy outcome for yourself. Being defensively pessimistic does not feel good in the moment. You're a worrier if you're doing that. But in terms of your health behavior for a looming threat, for something that's coming in the future, there's good evidence that those people will take the actions that are required. and I'm going to die of cancer, I'm getting rid of these cigarettes and so forth. It's interesting. Both are probably unrealistic, to some degree, but they do help us in certain contexts. Again, pure rationalism probably wouldn't always work well in these Zaza: Hmm. Stuart Vyse: contexts. Zaza: Defensive, pessimism. Interesting Stuart Vyse: Yes, that's what it's called. Zaza: concept. I think it's a, we have a variation of that back home, at least in Eastern Europe. I don't know if it goes for the entire Europe, but some sort of a pessimistic optimism or optimistic pessimism, actually, where you think everything's gonna go wrong. And you talk about how everything's gonna go wrong. And then usually not everything goes wrong. And then you're happy, you know. Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: Because you're expecting everything to go wrong, but everything didn't go Stuart Vyse: Exactly, Zaza: to Stuart Vyse: exactly. Zaza: shit. Pardon my Stuart Vyse: So, Zaza: French Stuart Vyse: yeah, Zaza: again. Stuart Vyse: no, I know. That's a very common sort of psychological strategy to always predict the worst and be happy when it doesn't happen. Zaza: If we step aside from superstitions for a little bit and talk about our convictions for a moment, because I've watched your TEDx talk on YouTube, it's very interesting. And during the talk you said, sometimes people will be convinced by new information and a good argument, but often they For whatever reason, sometimes the false story is more attractive than the true one. So for example, when you're arguing with someone from the opposite end of the political spectrum on Twitter and you come equipped with amazing bulletproof arguments, do you ever stand any chance at all of convincing them? Or is this stuff just a giant waste of time? Because it works similar to superstitions. Like it's a different part of the brain. and it Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: just doesn't respond to this sort of stuff. Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, just I think in general, arguing on Twitter is a waste of time. You know, it is not a, it is not a land of reason and, you know, interesting debate. Zaza: Well, Stuart Vyse: Uh, Zaza: there Stuart Vyse: it can Zaza: goes Stuart Vyse: be fun. It can be fun. Zaza: 60% Stuart Vyse: And I, I Zaza: of my time. Yes. Stuart Vyse: know I, I'm on it too. So I, I'm saying that, but, um, but no, I mean, there's, there's a lot of work on this now you can imagine over the last, you know, since just to pick a random number since 2016, there's been a lot of research and interest in this topic. What people suggest is that, I mean, obviously, we can't get rid of facts and reason. We do have to try to wave those flags and present people with reason. there's so much tribalism, there's so much of a thought that I can't trust you, no matter what you say, I can't, whatever comes out of your mouth, I cannot trust because you're not in my camp, you know, you're in the other camp. And so there's an, unfortunately, and this is hard in today's world, and we have all these ways that we supposedly connect like we're connecting now, right? And yet, it's a very isolated world. And so the suggestion is that you actually need to build some kind of interpersonal trust where the person can see you as more than just a member of your team, right? That you're a person unique in your own way. And only then when they trust you as a source, are they willing to accept. facts and so forth. And so, this is the nature of the world we live in now, that sort of being a member of my team and showing my team colors is more important than anything else. And people, I mean, to put a fine point on it, it's quite clear that thousands of people in the United States died for that cause. because they did not get the vaccine, you know, the percentage of people in red states who did not get the vaccine and paid the ultimate price is quite clear, you know, and so that whether they knew they were doing it or not, many people died because they were a member of a team that, you know, rejected the vaccine. Zaza: Would you, I know that's tough to say, but would you think it's possible that people in their inner circle of the people who died because they didn't get the vaccine in those red states predominantly like you mentioned, even though their family member, for example, died and they share their belief about the vaccines, that they still advocated to not get vaccinated despite the Stuart Vyse: I... Zaza: fact that their loved one died? Stuart Vyse: yeah... Zaza: Is Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: it Stuart Vyse: don't Zaza: so Stuart Vyse: know. Zaza: strong? Stuart Vyse: Yeah, I don't know. Zaza: But Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: it- Stuart Vyse: mean... Zaza: Can it be so strong that despite... Stuart Vyse: Oh, I think it can be. I think it can be, Zaza: Right. Stuart Vyse: definitely. I don't know that we have any great data on that, and so forth. And I guess I have to be careful about my red state, blue state suggestion, because many of the blue states are very populated, right? And so there were many people that died in the cities, whereas some of the red states are very rural. But in terms of vaccinated versus non-vaccinated people, it's very clear what the results were, which party was suggesting that people not get vaccinated. So, but yeah, as far as they're changing their, I mean, I have heard of many, not many, but some cases where people finally, once they're on the respirator, and are really sick, that they changed their tune and recognized how. what a Zaza: Jesus. Stuart Vyse: mistake they had made. But it's Zaza: Mmm. Stuart Vyse: too late. It's way too late at that point. Although it was politicized in the U.S. and it was the Republican party that was less likely to get vaccinated or wear masks, the president of the United States almost never seen with a mask on when he was president Trump. There are people on the other side. We now have a Democratic candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who's going to run for president as a Democrat, who was anti-vax way before COVID. You know, he has all these crazy medical ideas that are just not at all. And unfortunately, he has a romantic name, right, that is associated with John F. Kennedy. So it's not strictly, it doesn't always get politicized, but it does sometimes. And in those cases where it is, I think the team membership is a strong influence. Zaza: Yeah, I saw he was doing some bench press without his shirt. And he Stuart Vyse: Yeah Zaza: had a lot of fanboys on social media because they were like, wouldn't you rather have a president who's ripped? You know? So there you go with Stuart Vyse: Yeah, Zaza: open Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: minds and the power of discussion. But Stuart Vyse: Alright. Zaza: if we come back to it, what are the circumstances where you actually might be convinced by a more powerful argument? I remember those Oxford debates when they would invite an atheist, a famous theologian, and then the audience would vote before the debate and after the debate. Stuart Vyse: Mm-hmm. Zaza: you know, this wasn't an impartial audience because probably some of them believed in God and some of them didn't. Stuart Vyse: Mm-hmm. Zaza: But what would be good circumstances during which you could, you know, have an open mind, a sufficiently open mind and the capacity to be convinced by a powerful argument? Stuart Vyse: Again, I think that there are a couple of things about that. First of all, public debates are tricky, because if they're going to be fair, then people have to hold to a set of principles and rules, right? And many of these debates, both on the question of religion, also on political topics or science and vaccines. throwing stuff out. There's this thing that's called the GISH Gallop, where you just keep throwing things out and you put your other person on the defensive, right? And they now have to try to debunk each one of these things as they come. And then, and then no progress is made because the person just throws out another crazy claim, right? So, That's a very common strategy that is used by politicians, by debaters and so forth. And so if you can't control the nature of the debate, this is why, for example, I don't think people should be publicly debating Robert F. Kennedy Jr. because this is what he does. He just says, oh, well there's, you know, Wi-Fi makes for brain cancer and vaccines are the, and you know, and the poor person who's on the other side has got to say, well, wait a second, no, there's no evidence for that. You know, here's, da, da. and you can't really win under those circumstances. So I think public debates can be, unless you have two reasonable people and if somehow the debate is restricted to a specific topic and doesn't go off in another direction, then it can work. But I think you have to have, the messenger has to somehow be somebody that can be received by the other party. And we're in a difficult situation now. For example, we've never really, or at least not in this way, have we had direct attacks on scientists and on experts on every field. The idea that anybody is an expert on anything is now thrown out the window. People who have never graduated from high school feel as though they know more. about illness and disease and medicine than people who have studied their whole lives. And so that is a weird situation to be in. And those people are not going to be reached. The only way that they're going to be reached is if they're cult leader tells them, no, you have to do this, right? And so, we're in a difficult, I'm not giving you a very optimistic message here. I think we're in a difficult time right now. And until people understand what the stakes are and wake up, I think we're gonna have difficulty being able to convince people about these things. Zaza: Right, so it's harder for us to accept somebody as a messenger or like a good-faith communicator or presenter or whatever of ideas and then it's harder for us to be convinced about anything. So we're Stuart Vyse: I think that's Zaza: locking Stuart Vyse: true. Zaza: ourselves in our own minds Stuart Vyse: Mm-hmm Zaza: essentially, right? Stuart Vyse: very much Zaza: Our own Stuart Vyse: so Zaza: camps. Stuart Vyse: Yes Zaza: Yeah, Stuart Vyse: and Zaza: so it's a representation of what you see on social media all the time. Like Stuart Vyse: Yes. Zaza: you said, like you know I keep doing this all the time. I have the same opponents on Twitter, for example, Stuart Vyse: Hehehe Zaza: and it's quite obvious that we're not going to convince each other. And Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: yet we keep on doing it. I come back with my statistics and my facts and they come up with theirs and we think of ways on how to spin this and look better and have more style in these really silly Twitter debates. Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: But it never goes anywhere. Stuart Vyse: No, it doesn't. And I've sort of pulled back from that, hopefully, if I ever do, it's a mistake. But yes, it's true. And it is the internet that has sort of fueled us in a way because, you know, there's this silly expression that has come out in the last few years, like, you know, I did my own research, right? And, you know, Zaza: That's Stuart Vyse: and Zaza: me when my hypochondriac brain kicks in and Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: I go to the doctor and I'm like, I did my own research. I definitely have pancreatic cancer. Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: Your little CT scan is not going to tell me otherwise. Stuart Vyse: Right, right. And you know, the flat earth person will say to you, do your research and you'll be like me. Once you've done your research the way I have, you will believe that the work earth is flat. That's a real just complete turning around of what research is. But the internet makes it possible. Zaza: Speaking of conspiracy theories, I hosted journalist Mike Rothschild two episodes ago on the podcast. He's researching conspiracy theories and he wrote a book about QAnon. I don't know if you know this conspiracy movement. Stuart Vyse: Oh, I do. Yes, absolutely. Zaza: All right. I asked him why do people turn to conspiracies based on his... research for the book and he said that it's usually that people have a difficult time in their life or they experienced trauma and You know what their wife leave them or they have a financial difficulty They can't pay their medical bills and then they're looking for somebody to scapegoat You know, they're looking for somebody to blame and that's when they turn to conspiracy theories and kind of their critical faculties Just you know go out of the window. Would you say that's accurate? Or do you Stuart Vyse: I think Zaza: have Stuart Vyse: that's Zaza: a different Stuart Vyse: true Zaza: perspective? Stuart Vyse: for many people, absolutely. And there's some evidence that supports that. There's this group in Helsinki that did a lot of research on paranormal beliefs and so forth. And they did a study of people who went to adult education classes on astrology, right? And... And they compared those people with who went to other adult education classes, like a language class or something of that nature. And they found that the people who went to the astrology classes were more likely to report some kind of a serious life change recently than the people who went to other classes. And interestingly, even when they asked like people in German classes, do you believe in astrology? The ones who were more likely to say that they believed in astrology had also experienced some kind of life change recently. So the connection appears to be there. And I would argue that astrology is a certain kind of belief system, but QAnon is another. And so there is a way in which you're seeking some control over the world, you're looking for some sense of order, and it ends up being conspiracy theory. I also think that, and I don't know whether you're experts said this, but the case with conspiracy theories is they tend to make you look smarter than the other, you know, folks. You know, you... I know something. that you are just naive about, you know, and you're not, you're not dealing with reality, I'm dealing with reality. I know that there are sex trafficking, you know, groups out there and Hillary Clinton is doing X, Y, and Z, and you're naive for believing otherwise. So there is, for people who need a sense of self-esteem, I think that also is a factor in the conspiracy thinking. Zaza: He also mentioned the social aspect. You suddenly belong to a social club, and it's not just a social club with like-minded people, but it's a social club that saves the world. We're Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: going to march, and we're going Stuart Vyse: That's right. Zaza: to get Stuart Vyse: Yep. Zaza: rid of these sex traffickers or whatever. Stuart Vyse: Exactly, that's right. So Zaza: Right. Stuart Vyse: they feel as though they're doing, you know, the Lord's work, and you Zaza: Yes. Stuart Vyse: know, they are saving the world. Zaza: Interesting. You mentioned Zodiac, the big daddy. Stuart Vyse: Yes. Zaza: I wanted to ask you about it before, so I'm happy that you brought it up. Stuart Vyse: Uh-huh. Zaza: We call it the horoscope in Europe, by the way. Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: So I always think about that serial killer, the Zodiac, when Americans Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: say Zodiac. Anyway, where did its story begin and why has it so thoroughly and durably captured our psyches? believer in this stuff. I don't Stuart Vyse: Oh, Zaza: believe Stuart Vyse: you Zaza: in it, but I really Stuart Vyse: are. Zaza: do believe in it. You know what Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: I mean? Stuart Vyse: Well, it's interesting that it has been described as the most popular personality theory ever, right? Because it's worldwide in various forms, and it is well known by people. So psychologists have a long way to go to catch up with it. I mean, obviously, it began with attempts to create calendars, right? It is from the observing of the seasons and the phases of the moon and so forth. And so in ancient times, there were efforts to create calendars. So again, the idea being, and let's remember, right, all of this is about wanting to know what the future is, right? How many days is it until the days get longer again, right? They've been getting shorter, we need more sun, being able to predict seasons, so forth. And so that's where it comes from. And so it seems likely to me that in those early periods, that that some magical significance was given to these things and associated with when people are born and so forth. So I think that's just basically it. It has evolved in different ways. You know, there's a different, I mean, as I understand, I'm not an expert on astrology per se, but in India, they have a slightly different system than here in the West. but it is widely known and because it's so simple, like the simple form of it, the birth sign, where you were born and it creates a connection. I'm an X and you're a Y and we get together or we don't and this is why. It provides a simple explanation often for relationships but for other things too. So. It has been wildly successful. Of course, it is the case. I don't want to burst any bubbles here But it doesn't work, you know, it isn't it isn't connected to anything. There have been studies it doesn't hold up, you know, but everybody knows it and And enjoys it, you know, I don't know what dating would look like without astrology Zaza: We're Stuart Vyse: Without Zaza: going to politely Stuart Vyse: people Zaza: disagree Stuart Vyse: saying Zaza: here, although Stuart Vyse: Okay. Zaza: I know you're right, but the second part of my dual psyche is, you know, Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: this is going to be the last thing that goes if I ever try to systematically get rid of my Stuart Vyse: I see. Zaza: delusions. You've studied irrational behavior for a very long time, so your defenses against it must be impenetrable by this point. Despite that, do you still find yourself at the mercy? of any sort of superstitions yourself. Stuart Vyse: Not superstitions. I mean, not that I'm aware of, right? I'm sure Zaza: What about Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: irrational Stuart Vyse: have, Zaza: behaviors Stuart Vyse: oh, Zaza: or delusions? Stuart Vyse: I have lots of, I definitely have a lot of irrational behavior. I think it's unavoidable. And I think it's, as I suggest in this most recent book, I think in many cases, it would be a bad thing to become completely rational about everything. I mean, as I say, the overconfidence thing is just very valuable and in the right context. And so I'm sure I'm overconfident in many circumstances. I mean, the other thing that at the very end of the book, I deal with some very serious issues that most people would not agree with me on. For example, I suggest that free will. the idea that we have free will is a useful delusion, right? That it is not, we don't, I argue, that we don't have free will, but we are so committed and we feel as though we do to such an extent that it's hard to believe that, it's hard to accept that we don't have free will. And I argue that feeling, of having choices and deciding and doing is very valuable to us. It is undoubtedly an illusion to me. I would argue I'm not alone on that, but I'm probably in a minority. But it's also very, like we're better having that illusion than not because it allows us to hold people responsible. to judge other people, to judge ourselves, to feel guilty, you know, in circumstances where we have done something wrong. And all of those things have social values and survival value for us. Zaza: Okay, you just dropped a bomb on me, so I have to ask you about that. Why don't you think we have a free will? Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean, it's a long, I would refer you to the chapter, but it's a long effort to sell you on that. I mean, one of the reasons is it simply doesn't make sense, right? In the, you know, in a logical sense. Like if you think about the whole universe, right? Most of it, you have no problem saying that there's no free will, you know, that planets do not go. where they go because they're curious about something over there. They go because they have to, that's just billiard balls. And even, you know, most living things. I don't think that my jade plant has free will. It's alive, it's growing. I don't think it has free will. Many lower animals. I think it's only a tiny fraction of animals and us on this tiny little planet. that we think somehow is beyond physics, is somehow apart from the physical world in that regard. And so in the logical sense, it doesn't make sense to me. But there's also one of the things that really convinced me was this guy named Dan Wegener, who was a psychologist at Harvard. He died a few years ago. and he did these fantastic experiments where he could separate the feeling of doing something from actually doing it. And so think about, I don't know if you've used an Ouija board before, have you ever Zaza: I did, Stuart Vyse: used one? Zaza: yeah, a couple of times, Stuart Vyse: Yeah, Zaza: like the Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: ghost thing, right? Stuart Vyse: Yeah, so you have two people holding this planchette. And both of them are saying, I'm not moving it. I'm not moving it. So that's a case. It's very common. Because there are two people, whoever's in charge, whoever's causing it is now ambiguous. It's not clear who it is. And so you have a sense of it's moving and I'm not doing it. So you're separating out the sense of doing from actually doing it. Because you are doing it. You are pushing it. And And then there are other examples where you think you're making something move and you're not. Right? He gives the example in the book of going up to a video game in a store and grabbing the joystick and starting to move it and the monkey starts jumping over things, right? And then all of a sudden, after a couple of minutes of that, you know, start game. shows up on the screen. And he realizes that this was a demo, and he had no control over what he was doing, right? It was just doing what it was doing and would have been without. And so there are many situations in which our feeling of doing can be separated from the actual act. And so once you realize that it's just a feeling, and sometimes it's it is consistent with what we're doing and sometimes it's not, then to me it becomes more likely that it's a feeling. It's something that accompanies our actions and our thinking, but doesn't have any direct effect. We're being influenced by things farther down the line that make us do the things we do. It's hard to accept. Zaza: So the feeling of me, for example, waking up and saying today I'm going to write an email to Professor Weiss and then I'm actually doing it, that's just another delusion then. Stuart Vyse: That's Zaza: It's Stuart Vyse: right. Zaza: not Stuart Vyse: I Zaza: that I decided Stuart Vyse: mean, Zaza: out Stuart Vyse: in my Zaza: of Stuart Vyse: view, Zaza: my own free Stuart Vyse: well, I Zaza: will. Stuart Vyse: mean, you did decide in the sense that your mind said, I think I'll do this today, and you did it. But it wasn't something that could have gone the other way. Even though you feel like it could, that is the problem with it. You feel like, well, I could have done something different. I could have said, Zaza: Exactly. Stuart Vyse: no, I'm going to email somebody else. You have that feeling. In fact, there's no way to work that out in the physical world. You know, you either you either was caused some way. There was some cause for those actions and those thoughts. Or we're now in the paranormal realm where there's some something out here, you know, that's doing the thinking and we don't quite and it's beyond cause and effect. Right. That's the problem, right? Is that the way we tend to think about free will as if it's an arbitrary thing that is not obeying the laws of physics, right? And is somehow outside of us. And that doesn't make sense to me, right? It does make sense. Lots of people have made that work out in their thinking. But for me, it's not about the law. as trying to think about it scientifically, it doesn't make sense. But I can't deny that we feel it. We feel it very strongly that we are doing those things. We're making decisions and so forth. And so my argument is that we probably evolve those feelings for a reason and that they undoubtedly, that feeling of doing is useful to us. Zaza: So what about the feeling of personal responsibility then and accountability? Like, how do you organize a society then or like put people in prison if there's no free will? Stuff like this. Stuart Vyse: Well, Zaza: I'm sorry, my brain Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: is going into an overdrive right now. Stuart Vyse: Well, Zaza: I'm definitely not a Stuart Vyse: these Zaza: philosopher. Stuart Vyse: are all those big questions that philosophers and psychologists have debated for a long time. I mean, there are good reasons to put people in jail, whether they were responsible or not. For example, Zaza: Right. Stuart Vyse: the fact that you exhibit a form of behavior that is not accepted by your group, we don't want you to do that again. And we want to be protected from your the possibility of you're doing it again, right? And we want to also demonstrate to other people that if they do it, this is going to happen to them. These are all very useful methods of social control that will help the group function. And so you don't have to invent a sort of religious or moral sense of responsibility. uh for that you know the person might not really be responsible in the sense that we tend to think about it uh but they but we can hold them responsible we can we can treat them in a way that will help the group function and so i again this is sort of an to me this is this is an example of why we have evolved the feeling because you can imagine yourself doing what that person did that got them into jail. And you feel bad, right? Like, if you imagine yourself doing that, you immediately have a sense, if you're operating correctly, you immediately have a sense of guilt or worry, and you're not gonna do that. And so these illusions of connection, of will, of responsibility are really valuable to us as a species. Zaza: Have you seen the movie The Minority Report with Tom Cruise Stuart Vyse: A long Zaza: by Steven Stuart Vyse: time ago, Zaza: Spielberg? Stuart Vyse: yes I did, Zaza: Right. Stuart Vyse: yeah. Zaza: It plays on this idea a little bit because Stuart Vyse: It does. Yeah, Zaza: it's a future. Oh, right. You remember Stuart Vyse: they Zaza: it. Stuart Vyse: can, Zaza: There's these precocks Stuart Vyse: yes. Yeah. Zaza: that can foresee the future and then tell you if somebody's going to murder somebody Stuart Vyse: Right. Zaza: and then they can lock him up before he does that. And then Stuart Vyse: Yeah. Zaza: they find out that it's not a bulletproof system because free will exists after all. Stuart Vyse: Yes, Zaza: And you can decide Stuart Vyse: yes, Zaza: in the Stuart Vyse: of Zaza: moment. Stuart Vyse: course. Well, that has to be sort of the answer. Zaza: Of course. Stuart Vyse: There is no movie, no successful movie plot that Zaza: Because Stuart Vyse: involves Zaza: it will be a bummer, a little Stuart Vyse: exactly, Zaza: bit of a bummer, Stuart Vyse: there's Zaza: to be Stuart Vyse: no Zaza: honest. Stuart Vyse: free will. Oh, Zaza: A downer. Stuart Vyse: geez. Zaza: Yeah. All right, Professor Weiss, we've come to the end. I have one last question for you. It's a trashy question because the title of this podcast is Euro Trash. I know you don't believe in Zodiac, but I do hope you will indulge me here. Based on your... Not scientific research because it's not scientific at all, but let's just say based on your personal experience then, which is the absolutely worst astrological sign of them all? Just the worst people, if you can name them. Stuart Vyse: I couldn't even begin. I don't know enough to say. And of course, I couldn't say that, right? They're all equivalent. There is no... Zaza: Okay, could you randomly- Stuart Vyse: By choosing a worst, I would be somehow endorsing a system that I don't believe in. Zaza: Okay, could you just randomly pick one then so I could bully those people with your stamp of approval and authority? Stuart Vyse: No, I am not going to help you with your bullying project. No, I'm sorry. Zaza: Okay, so we just say Taurus then. Stuart Vyse: Okay, whatever. Yeah, the bull, right? Zaza: Thank you so much, Professor. At the very end, to circle back to the Taro, it was right this time. Stuart Vyse: Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Zaza: It was, as far as I'm concerned, this conversation was a complete success. Stuart Vyse: Great. Zaza: I really enjoyed it. Thank you so Stuart Vyse: So Zaza: much Stuart Vyse: did Zaza: for taking Stuart Vyse: I. Zaza: the time, Professor Weiss. Where can people find your work, your books? Stuart Vyse: Well, I mean the easiest way is, I'm on all the usual social media, but the easiest way is I have a website that is my name Stuart Vise, V-Y-S-E, S-T-U-A-R-T, V-Y-S-E dot com, and so my stuff is all there. So that's the easiest Zaza: Alright. Stuart Vyse: way. Zaza: And social media, you have like Facebook, Twitter, Stuart Vyse: Facebook, Zaza: Instagram, Stuart Vyse: Twitter, Zaza: everything. Stuart Vyse: Instagram, Zaza: The lot. Stuart Vyse: right? Yeah, Zaza: But you don't Stuart Vyse: those Zaza: argue Stuart Vyse: three. Zaza: on it. Stuart Vyse: No, I try not to, no. Zaza: OK, all right. I'll take it to heart. Stuart Vyse: Thank you. Zaza: Again, thank you so much. This was fantastic. Stuart Vyse: Thank you for having me. It was a lot of fun.