Latest / The Morning Edition / An AI bust is coming. But when? And who will be hit hardest?

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An AI bust is coming. But when? And who will be hit hardest? · The Morning Edition

• 0:07
  S1: There's a battle brewing over which country will come out
• 0:10
  S1: as the leader in AI, and the United States is
• 0:13
  S1: betting the House economically that it will come out on top.
• 0:17
  S1: I'm Samantha Selinger Morse, and you're listening to The Morning
• 0:20
  S1: Edition from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today,
• 0:24
  S1: international and political editor Peter Hartcher on what previous infrastructure
• 0:28
  S1: booms like the craze for building railways in the 1840s,
• 0:32
  S1: or the.com boom of the 1990s, tells us where this
• 0:35
  S1: will lead economically and which countries might be hit hardest
• 0:39
  S1: in an AI bust. It's August the 6th. Peter, welcome
• 0:49
  S1: back to the podcast.
• 0:50
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 0:51
  S1: Okay. I'm so looking forward to this because many of us,
• 0:53
  S1: we think of AI, we think of maybe our mate
• 0:56
  S1: who's using it to craft a wedding speech, or perhaps
• 0:59
  S1: some of our friends who use it to, you know,
• 1:02
  S1: cheat at uni on on essays. But you've pointed out
• 1:06
  S1: in your most recent column, it's actually sort of the
• 1:07
  S1: cornerstone or it will be of any country's given power.
• 1:10
  S1: So just remind us, how is that?
• 1:14
  S2: Well, the threshold question really is, do you want to
• 1:17
  S2: be a country in control of its own fate or
• 1:20
  S2: a country that is at the whim of other countries
• 1:24
  S2: that have greater technological advantage than you do? You could
• 1:27
  S2: use a parallel going back to the times of imperialism
• 1:30
  S2: and colonialism, the countries that had the technological edge of
• 1:34
  S2: being part of the early part of the industrial revolution
• 1:38
  S2: were the countries that took over all the other countries.
• 1:41
  S2: So AI is a new level of capability now, which
• 1:45
  S2: will be not not all, but one of the distinguishing
• 1:48
  S2: factors between countries that can control their own destiny and
• 1:51
  S2: sovereignty and the countries that can't. That's the core proposition.
• 1:57
  S1: Okay. No small, no small thing. But there's also the potential,
• 2:01
  S1: and you've written about this to unleash major chaos, right?
• 2:05
  S1: Which as part of, I guess, your ability or a
• 2:07
  S1: country's ability to take over possibly another country. So I
• 2:10
  S1: guess tell us about that, whether in the context or not,
• 2:13
  S1: of maybe recent AI launches or just what the capacity
• 2:16
  S1: is at the moment or what it will be.
• 2:18
  S2: Yeah. Well, to create chaos, I mean, absolutely, countries can
• 2:24
  S2: already do that using warfare, kinetic warfare. This is a
• 2:29
  S2: new type of chaos. And we've had a we've had
• 2:32
  S2: a fair flavor of it through. One example is cyber
• 2:36
  S2: attacks and, you know, great outages, failures online. This AI
• 2:43
  S2: takes this stuff to a new level. In fact, a
• 2:48
  S2: couple of weeks ago, I quoted the former head of
• 2:50
  S2: the Australian Signals Directorate, the. The ASD is a highly
• 2:54
  S2: sophisticated secret signals interception and Surveillance agency. It's, I suppose,
• 3:02
  S2: the equivalent of America's NSA, National Security Agency. Rachel Noble
• 3:07
  S2: Rachel said to me that, um, she said, this is
• 3:11
  S2: already totally, uh, operating in our systems. We're already completely
• 3:16
  S2: dependent on it. Everything from space, GPS, cyber security, she said,
• 3:22
  S2: for example, we're going to need it to defend against
• 3:25
  S2: other countries, she said. Already, we know ASD has put
• 3:28
  S2: out advisories that they have detected Chinese malware implanted throughout
• 3:35
  S2: critical infrastructure systems and sites in Australia. Very hard to
• 3:39
  S2: detect inactive. We need to be able better to to
• 3:44
  S2: track it. This is what she told me. And she
• 3:47
  S2: was a top signal spy for the country. And AI
• 3:50
  S2: gives China greater capacity to do more, uh, to potentially
• 3:55
  S2: disrupt other countries. And as Rachel Noble said, this malware
• 3:58
  S2: sits on your system until, the hostile state decides it's
• 4:02
  S2: the moment they want to activate it. Push the button
• 4:05
  S2: and knock out all your systems. She said. We need
• 4:07
  S2: a better capacity to detect it, and our enemies will
• 4:11
  S2: want a better capacity to inflict it. So it's really
• 4:14
  S2: basic nation state, uh, state on state warfare in a
• 4:20
  S2: new dimension. It's geopolitics by other means.
• 4:25
  S1: And we're already seeing it, I believe. There's been reports
• 4:27
  S1: that the United States military reportedly used Claude, I think
• 4:32
  S1: AI built by anthropic in the bombing of Iran and
• 4:35
  S1: before that, the Venezuela raid in January. So and further
• 4:39
  S1: to that, you've written that the US is betting its
• 4:42
  S1: economic house on AI. So what do you mean by that?
• 4:45
  S2: Yeah. Well, part one of your question, uh, a famous
• 4:50
  S2: professor of international relations, Hal Brands, has has written that
• 4:54
  S2: all wars are AI wars from now on. And already
• 4:59
  S2: we see examples, as you say. It doesn't mean that
• 5:01
  S2: because you have AI, you'll win the war. Like with
• 5:04
  S2: any type of power, you have to deploy it intelligently
• 5:07
  S2: in pursuit of a sound strategy. If you I mean,
• 5:10
  S2: take the case of the US, we've talked about this extensively,
• 5:13
  S2: but the US against Iran doesn't matter how much raw
• 5:16
  S2: power it has in pursuit of a stupid strategy, it
• 5:18
  S2: will fail. So you still need to have good strategy.
• 5:21
  S2: But if you have two countries with equal strategy and capability,
• 5:26
  S2: AI is a potential source of advantage in all countries,
• 5:29
  S2: of course, will want that advantage. As for the Americans
• 5:33
  S2: getting their economic house on AI, there's a few ways
• 5:36
  S2: you can slice this particular salami. One way is that
• 5:41
  S2: the huge surge of investment to set up the infrastructure
• 5:45
  S2: for this industry is responsible for, depending on the month, um,
• 5:49
  S2: most economic growth in the US or down to about
• 5:52
  S2: a third of economic growth in the US. So this
• 5:55
  S2: is just one industry. Just think of the size of
• 5:58
  S2: that economy and all the industries across the whole thing.
• 6:02
  S2: And this one sector is accounting for between a third
• 6:05
  S2: and and two thirds or more of US growth in
• 6:09
  S2: any given month or quarter. That's that's one dimension. Another
• 6:13
  S2: dimension is look at the stock market. And this is
• 6:17
  S2: where it gets out of control. So the the actual
• 6:19
  S2: hard investment in systems and data centers and chips and
• 6:23
  S2: all of that stuff. Four of the big American tech companies,
• 6:27
  S2: the so-called hyperscalers until this year, are estimated to have
• 6:31
  S2: spent or have disclosed investment of 1.1 trillion USD in
• 6:37
  S2: setting up their AI structures. Right. So that's Amazon, Google, meta, Microsoft,
• 6:44
  S2: and they're estimated to spend this year on top of
• 6:47
  S2: that 1.1 trillion. Another 745 billion USD. So that's just
• 6:51
  S2: just four of the companies just in in, you know,
• 6:55
  S2: up till today essentially to the end of this year. Uh,
• 6:59
  S2: but then looking beyond that, there are credible estimates that
• 7:03
  S2: the whole sector will spend $9 trillion in physical investment
• 7:08
  S2: in this sector over the next four years to 2030.
• 7:12
  S2: So to put that in perspective, total US annual GDP
• 7:16
  S2: is $30,000,000,000,009 trillion in investment in one sector. You can
• 7:21
  S2: see this is a huge new source of investment and activity.
• 7:28
  S2: But then so that's the physical investment. Then you get
• 7:30
  S2: to the stock market where all the speculation is going on.
• 7:33
  S2: And that's where it really gets out of control. The
• 7:35
  S2: market capitalization today, uh, it fluctuates, but, uh, today approximately
• 7:41
  S2: won't change that much in the next 24 hours of
• 7:45
  S2: all AI related companies on the US markets is 27
• 7:48
  S2: trillion USD, again compared to 30 trillion annual GDP. So
• 7:54
  S2: just the size of the market value of those companies
• 7:58
  S2: is roughly the size of the entire output of the
• 8:01
  S2: US economy in a given year. Now you could say, well,
• 8:05
  S2: isn't that good? That's impressive. Yeah, it's a huge transformative technology.
• 8:10
  S2: Why not put a lot of money into this? Well,
• 8:14
  S2: the problem, Samantha, is that this is a classic investment frenzy,
• 8:18
  S2: a boom.
• 8:19
  S1: And we know it follows a boom.
• 8:21
  S2: Yes, we do know what comes after a boom. Um,
• 8:25
  S2: also starts with the letter B.
• 8:26
  S1: Yeah.
• 8:27
  S2: Um, two ways of coming at this one. I'll read
• 8:29
  S2: from a paragraph from the Bank of International Settlements annual
• 8:33
  S2: report in June. The Bank of International Settlements is often
• 8:36
  S2: called the central Bank of Central Banks. It coordinates all
• 8:39
  S2: the central banks around the world. And they put out
• 8:42
  S2: an annual report on risks to the economy and as
• 8:45
  S2: well as prospects. Um, they talked about instructive parallels being
• 8:50
  S2: the canal mania of the 1830s, the British railway mania
• 8:53
  S2: in the 1840s, the electrification exuberance of the late 1920s,
• 8:59
  S2: and the.com boom of the late 1990s, they all shared
• 9:02
  S2: one common tray a genuine technological breakthrough that attracted capital
• 9:08
  S2: in excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify. These
• 9:12
  S2: episodes ended with an eventual reversal in investment inducing, economy
• 9:16
  S2: wide recessions bust and the current Wall Street frenzy the
• 9:21
  S2: bank described as bearing resemblance to these precedents. So that's
• 9:26
  S2: that's one we have. This is a standard pattern. There
• 9:29
  S2: is a real technological breakthrough. But investors in the excitement
• 9:33
  S2: and shall we say, greed of wanting to get in
• 9:36
  S2: on the boom. Yeah. Go over the top. Invest way
• 9:39
  S2: more than the the actual underlying companies and technologies can
• 9:43
  S2: ultimately return. Yeah. And they go market collapses. And there's
• 9:47
  S2: so much wealth tied up as there is today in
• 9:50
  S2: those shares that when they crunch, it drags the whole
• 9:54
  S2: economy down. And as they've said, the most recent was
• 9:57
  S2: the.com boom from 1999 20, which we well remember. The
• 10:01
  S2: other way of looking at this is just to get
• 10:04
  S2: a gauge, I guess, a numerical indicator. The best I think,
• 10:11
  S2: and I wrote a book about the US, I. In fact,
• 10:13
  S2: I predicted the global financial crisis in a book I
• 10:17
  S2: wrote called Bubble Man about Alan Greenspan. My great crime, though,
• 10:21
  S2: Samantha was. I was two years early. Um, uh, but,
• 10:25
  S2: you know, um, that's worse to be.
• 10:28
  S1: Now, you know, keep all your good ideas. Just bank them. Yeah,
• 10:31
  S1: just thank them for a couple of years, and you'll.
• 10:32
  S2: Only push the button when you see it starting to crumble.
• 10:34
  S1: Yeah, exactly.
• 10:35
  S2: But, uh, this measure is market capitalization. So the total
• 10:40
  S2: value of shares on the market in this industry compared
• 10:44
  S2: to or the overall market, total stock market compared to
• 10:47
  S2: a country's GDP. Uh, historically, when you get significantly over 100%,
• 10:54
  S2: when the market capitalization is more than the total value
• 10:58
  S2: of the underlying economy in a given year. That's a
• 11:02
  S2: red zone territory where you can expect there's going to
• 11:05
  S2: be a bust. On the other side of it, in
• 11:07
  S2: the case of the.com boom, it got up to about
• 11:10
  S2: 140 150% of GDP. Wow. Um, at the moment, with
• 11:15
  S2: the AI frenzy in Wall Street, it's up above 200%
• 11:19
  S2: of GDP. So this is really out of whack.
• 11:23
  S1: Uh, it's currently at two. Wow.
• 11:25
  S2: Yeah. Okay. So there's 27. Is the AI related stocks
• 11:30
  S2: alone $27 trillion worth. But if you take the whole market, uh,
• 11:34
  S2: covering all US industries, and that's, that's the comparative measure
• 11:38
  S2: that I'm using, it's well over 200% of GDP. So
• 11:42
  S2: by historical standards, in recent centuries, this is a whopper. Uh,
• 11:47
  S2: and as you say, with a boom, the bigger the boom,
• 11:50
  S2: the bigger the bust. Timing is the tricky part, but
• 11:53
  S2: it will bust. So, uh, there are a couple of
• 11:57
  S2: the ways in which you can not only see the
• 12:01
  S2: the patterns, but you can see the dimensions and hence
• 12:05
  S2: the original phrase you use. The US is betting the house.
• 12:08
  S1: Right.
• 12:09
  S2: On AI.
• 12:11
  S1: After the break.
• 12:13
  S2: If you're in a competitive market, you can't afford to
• 12:16
  S2: be charging way more than your competitor. I mean, look
• 12:19
  S2: at what the Chinese system has done with electric vehicles,
• 12:22
  S2: where they now command 60% of the world market and
• 12:24
  S2: the Americans are being crushed.
• 12:34
  S1: Okay. So you know how I love to ask you
• 12:36
  S1: to pull out your crystal ball. So does any of this.
• 12:39
  S1: And the precedence, does any of this suggest when this
• 12:41
  S1: AI bust might be coming for all of us?
• 12:45
  S2: Well, uh, I'll just dust off the crystal.
• 12:49
  S3: Yeah, exactly.
• 12:49
  S2: It's gone very.
• 12:50
  S3: Foggy. Yeah, yeah.
• 12:51
  S2: Well, there's a famous quote from John Maynard Keynes, the
• 12:54
  S2: noted British economist, who said that markets can remain irrational
• 13:01
  S2: longer than you can stay solvent. In other words.
• 13:06
  S1: Just trying to tease that out.
• 13:07
  S3: Yeah.
• 13:07
  S2: In other words, bull markets run longer than anybody expects.
• 13:10
  S1: Okay.
• 13:11
  S2: So who knows. But this is a well advanced bull market.
• 13:15
  S2: We saw it take a hit. It was a big scare.
• 13:17
  S2: Big shudder. A couple of weeks ago. Hit the Korean market,
• 13:21
  S2: hit the US market and had reverberations around the world.
• 13:25
  S2: It could happen at any time. You need a displacement event.
• 13:29
  S2: A displacement event can be any shock that changes. The
• 13:32
  S2: outlook can be a change in official interest rates. Monetary
• 13:36
  S2: policy right. It can be an investment shock or it
• 13:39
  S2: can be a shock from a competitor, let's say China.
• 13:42
  S1: Well, this is what I wanted to ask you about
• 13:44
  S1: because if the US is betting its house economically speaking
• 13:48
  S1: on AI, I guess tell us what's happening with China
• 13:51
  S1: because there's really a battle now, right? It's really China
• 13:54
  S1: versus the USA in terms of who's going to come
• 13:56
  S1: out on top in terms of AI capability and infrastructure
• 13:58
  S1: and so forth. So tell us how China is doing then.
• 14:01
  S1: Are they also betting the House?
• 14:03
  S2: Well, the orthodoxy until early last year was that the
• 14:07
  S2: US was years ahead of everybody, including Chinese friends.
• 14:11
  S3: Yes.
• 14:12
  S2: And then early last year, there was the so-called deep
• 14:15
  S2: seek shock, deep seek being the Chinese company that produced
• 14:18
  S2: a new AI model, which was, uh, at the same
• 14:23
  S2: or similar level to frontier models in the US, just
• 14:27
  S2: as capable. Yeah. But had two advantages. One much cheaper.
• 14:33
  S2: It had been developed at a cost of about 8%
• 14:36
  S2: of the ChatGPT equivalent that it was compared with, and
• 14:40
  S2: used far fewer chips. And like all the Chinese models
• 14:44
  S2: coming onto the market, its so-called open weight versus the
• 14:49
  S2: US ones, which are all closed systems, open weight simply
• 14:52
  S2: means you can anyone can download these models and you
• 14:55
  S2: can tinker with them. You can customize them according to
• 14:57
  S2: your own company's needs or institutions needs or whatever it is.
• 15:01
  S2: The American proprietary systems are all tightly locked and closely guarded,
• 15:06
  S2: and that rattled everybody. But pretty soon the juggernaut on
• 15:10
  S2: Wall Street resumed. Just overlooked that. But it's happened repeatedly now,
• 15:16
  S2: and the latest one was just two weeks ago, when
• 15:19
  S2: a company called moonshot produced its new model, Kimmy three,
• 15:24
  S2: which again, was right up there in the top, uh,
• 15:27
  S2: comparable with the top 2 or 3 most advanced and
• 15:31
  S2: most expensive US models. But the advantage of the Chinese
• 15:36
  S2: offering of Kimmy three is that you could operate it
• 15:39
  S2: at one third the cost, and it's open weight, so
• 15:43
  S2: you can model it to suit yourself. So this gave
• 15:46
  S2: the market a big shock. Uh, Wall Street took a
• 15:49
  S2: hit again, but it only took a couple of days.
• 15:52
  S2: There was some strong earnings results from the big American
• 15:54
  S2: tech companies. And the market said, oh, let's just get
• 15:57
  S2: on with this. We're in the middle of the Bulls
• 15:59
  S2: are running. Let's just keep running. And they did. And
• 16:02
  S2: so the market recovered and will and will continue for
• 16:04
  S2: a while. But this is a really important moment because
• 16:10
  S2: it shows that the the Chinese system, first of all,
• 16:14
  S2: is capable of producing not just 1 or 2. There
• 16:17
  S2: have been multiple of these companies now, AI startups that
• 16:21
  S2: are capable of producing top notch competitive AI models that
• 16:26
  S2: cost a fraction, a small fraction of what the US
• 16:30
  S2: companies are producing. Now. If you're in a competitive market,
• 16:33
  S2: you can't afford to be charging way more than your competitor.
• 16:38
  S2: I mean, look at what the Chinese system has done
• 16:41
  S2: with electric vehicles, where they now command 60% of the
• 16:44
  S2: world market and the Americans are being crushed. Look at
• 16:47
  S2: the next one, which is humanoid robotics, where Musk. Elon
• 16:52
  S2: Musk has been bragging about how he's going to produce
• 16:55
  S2: this great robot. They're still struggling to get it into production.
• 16:58
  S2: The Chinese, in the meantime, I've got 180 manufacturers already
• 17:02
  S2: selling humanoid robots. Fully functional on the global market. More
• 17:06
  S2: than 300 models and last year accounted for 90% of
• 17:10
  S2: the global market. Because quality is good, price is cheaper. EVs.
• 17:16
  S2: Humanoid robots are. Now we're going to see this play
• 17:19
  S2: out in AI.
• 17:21
  S1: So essentially what you're saying is the American AI market
• 17:23
  S1: is is it inevitable then. Are we at that point
• 17:25
  S1: where it's inevitable that the AI market in America and
• 17:28
  S1: elsewhere is just going to be crushed by the Chinese
• 17:30
  S1: AI market?
• 17:31
  S2: It's not inevitable. And Lord knows this is this is
• 17:34
  S2: frontier stuff on the technological frontier. So anything can happen.
• 17:38
  S3: Right.
• 17:39
  S2: But if you if you were a betting person, you
• 17:42
  S2: would look at, for example, the technological tracker maintained by Aspi,
• 17:46
  S2: the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which is an internationally recognised benchmark,
• 17:51
  S2: where they say of the I think it's 64 technologies.
• 17:55
  S2: They rate as critical advanced technologies in the world today. Yeah.
• 17:59
  S2: China is leading the US in 59 of those, nearly
• 18:02
  S2: all of them. And the Chinese technological momentum is surging
• 18:07
  S2: and carrying the Chinese systems to the fore in almost
• 18:11
  S2: every sector. So the the pattern and the momentum is
• 18:17
  S2: distinctly with China to catch up to or surpass the
• 18:23
  S2: US in various multiple almost all technological fields. This is
• 18:27
  S2: why it's on the cusp with AI now on the
• 18:31
  S2: cusp of seeing which way this goes. So we've talked
• 18:34
  S2: about the massive investments in the trillions of dollars that
• 18:38
  S2: the US companies are making. Last year, according to Stanford University,
• 18:42
  S2: they have a lab that monitors all things AI. According
• 18:46
  S2: to them, Chinese private sector investment in AI last year
• 18:51
  S2: was just 12 billion USD 12 billion. At the same time,
• 18:56
  S2: each of the major US companies is spending many multiples
• 19:00
  S2: of that, each one of them spending in collectively trillions
• 19:03
  S2: against 12 billion. No wonder the Chinese can charge lower
• 19:06
  S2: prices because they have lower capital outlays. So this contrast
• 19:10
  S2: is striking. And it's increasing. And we'll see where it goes.
• 19:14
  S1: Okay. So if everyone though is partaking in this AI
• 19:16
  S1: boom and therefore a bust is headed presumably at some point,
• 19:20
  S1: possibly even a recession, does that mean that China would
• 19:24
  S1: be slightly insulated from that? Like if it's spending way
• 19:26
  S1: less than, say, everybody else is, or in particular the
• 19:29
  S1: US is? Might it be less vulnerable to a bust
• 19:33
  S1: or a recession than, say, America or even us?
• 19:36
  S2: Exactly right. It's it's a really important point, because if
• 19:40
  S2: you're only spending that much. So while the Wall Street
• 19:43
  S2: companies have got AI companies and related to AI companies
• 19:46
  S2: have got capitalization of 27 trillion outstanding in the marketplace,
• 19:51
  S2: the Chinese equivalent is about 4 trillion. So, you know,
• 19:55
  S2: the US crash has got that much to fall. The
• 19:58
  S2: Chinese crash has only got that much to fall. We
• 20:01
  S2: head into this phase with the US having bet the
• 20:03
  S2: House on AI, whereas China has just bet maybe a
• 20:06
  S2: couple of the bedrooms, right?
• 20:08
  S1: Okay, well, I wanted to I guess just to wrap up, Peter,
• 20:10
  S1: I wanted to talk about, I guess, what's happening more immediately, perhaps, uh,
• 20:15
  S1: in things that threat, perhaps the American market and beyond.
• 20:18
  S1: Because of course, Donald Trump still has two and a
• 20:21
  S1: half years left of his presidency. So his economic stewardship
• 20:24
  S1: will be around for a while.
• 20:26
  S3: But I'm sure.
• 20:26
  S2: It'll pass in a.
• 20:27
  S3: Breeze.
• 20:27
  S1: Oh that's right. Yeah, I'm sure it'll be effortless for
• 20:29
  S1: everybody involved. But he is struggling right now, isn't he,
• 20:32
  S1: to rein in the economic chaos that he has arguably
• 20:36
  S1: unleashed with this war with Iran? The chaos sort of
• 20:38
  S1: comes and goes. The market reacts, goes up and down,
• 20:41
  S1: depending on what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz. So
• 20:44
  S1: I guess just tell us the latest. Is Trump any
• 20:47
  S1: way to inking a deal with Iran that will convince
• 20:50
  S1: the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and not
• 20:53
  S1: impose shipping fees for entrance, because that's sort of been
• 20:57
  S1: the long running. I mean, it's been going for a
• 20:58
  S1: while now.
• 20:59
  S3: Yes.
• 20:59
  S1: And it's the markets don't like it.
• 21:01
  S3: Yes.
• 21:01
  S2: We've seen this two step dance.
• 21:02
  S3: Yes.
• 21:03
  S2: Well, nobody really likes it.
• 21:04
  S3: No one likes it.
• 21:05
  S2: Everybody would like to have a predictable supply of oil, fertilizer, hydrogen,
• 21:10
  S2: all the other things that flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 21:13
  S2: But we've seen this two step dance from Trump many times.
• 21:16
  S2: And one day it's going to be he's going to
• 21:18
  S2: end their civilization the next day. They're great friends and
• 21:21
  S2: and smart people.
• 21:22
  S3: That's right.
• 21:22
  S2: Um, so yesterday it was going to be the biggest
• 21:26
  S2: attack since World War Two. He was about to launch
• 21:28
  S2: on Iran. Right. And then today, not only does he
• 21:33
  S2: say they're negotiating, but Scott Bessent, his Treasury secretary in
• 21:36
  S2: the last few hours, has said that a deal is imminent.
• 21:40
  S2: At the same time, however, the Iranians are saying there
• 21:43
  S2: is no negotiation whatsoever.
• 21:45
  S3: That's right. So take your pick.
• 21:46
  S1: And then on Monday, I think Trump was saying all
• 21:49
  S1: they do is make me angry. They just make me
• 21:50
  S1: more angry. I think he was saying that the Iranians
• 21:54
  S1: were unbelievably duplicitous. But apparently Scott thinks things are going great. So.
• 21:59
  S2: Well, Scott thinks it's going well. And of course, the
• 22:00
  S2: Iranians have a different view because they say that twice
• 22:03
  S2: now where the US has commenced attacks on Iran last
• 22:06
  S2: year and then again this year, they were in the
• 22:08
  S2: middle of negotiations with the US across the table at
• 22:11
  S2: the time the Americans launched hostilities. So they would see
• 22:15
  S2: the duplicity coming from the other side. Yes, but look, both.
• 22:18
  S2: They've both got themselves in this Gordian knot of antagonism
• 22:22
  S2: and distrust. And it's it's impossible to know how and
• 22:28
  S2: when that will ultimately resolve. So we'll come back next
• 22:32
  S2: week and we'll have another look.
• 22:34
  S1: That's right. Well, thanks, Peter, as always for your time.
• 22:37
  S2: Pleasure to chat with you, Samantha.
• 22:43
  S1: In other news today, experts say concerns about recent buyers
• 22:47
  S1: going into negative equity in the current downturn are overblown.
• 22:51
  S1: With less than 1% of home owners in negative equity
• 22:54
  S1: across Australia, AI could deliver the national economy a desperately
• 22:59
  S1: needed productivity boost worth almost $120 billion, and support the
• 23:04
  S1: creation of tens of thousands of jobs, according to nation
• 23:07
  S1: leading analysis of the burgeoning boom. And former international English
• 23:12
  S1: cricketer Ben Stokes believes that cricket's relationship with alcohol has
• 23:16
  S1: not moved on as the game has become more professional,
• 23:19
  S1: but denied that the England team he captained for around
• 23:22
  S1: four years had a drinking problem. You can read more@theage.com.au
• 23:28
  S1: or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our
• 23:36
  S1: executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen
• 23:40
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