Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 235: What the Weather Pattern Is Telling Us About 2026 with Gary Lezak

Transcript

235: What the Weather Pattern Is Telling Us About 2026 with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down the
• 0:03
  weather pattern. Happy New Year everyone.
• 0:05
  We are so excited to be going into another year of podcasts
• 0:09
  with all of you guys and Gary is here to breakdown the weather
• 0:13
  that we are going to be seeing in 2026.
• 0:15
  He goes over some indicators that we're seeing for the rest
• 0:19
  of winter as we go into spring and summer.
• 0:21
  He also covers what is the LRCI felt like it was a really great
• 0:25
  opportunity as we go into another year of podcast to
• 0:28
  refresh everyone on what the LRC is and what the heck Gary is
• 0:32
  even doing here on this podcast every week and what he is
• 0:35
  sharing with you guys and just the magnitude of that.
• 0:39
  He also at the end goes over a recap of the top three weather
• 0:43
  events that we saw back in 2025 as well.
• 0:48
  Before we hop into today's episode with Gary, if you're
• 0:50
  watching on YouTube, go hit that subscribe button and like this
• 0:53
  episode. If you're watching on any of our
• 0:55
  other podcast platforms, make sure that you're following the
• 0:58
  show and that you go right in review do it as well.
• 1:01
  Without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary.
• 1:08
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily Podcast, your go to source for
• 1:12
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 1:15
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:17
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:20
  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:23
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:32
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
• 1:34
  How was your Christmas and your little vacation getaway to Lake
• 1:39
  Tahoe? Well, thank you very much for
• 1:42
  having me on this whole year because it's happy New Year,
• 1:45
  Laura. And how are you?
• 1:46
  Yes, Happy New Year. It's crazy that this podcast is
• 1:51
  going to be coming out in 2026, Gary.
• 1:53
  That's. Crazy.
• 1:55
  So happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to everyone else.
• 1:58
  I just went to Lake Tahoe to experience a big storm that was
• 2:02
  predicted by the LRC months ago. We didn't know exactly when it
• 2:06
  was going to return the pattern that produced it, but my gosh,
• 2:10
  not only does the pattern that produce it return, it's a long
• 2:13
  cycle this year, about 10 weeks long, whereas last week was six
• 2:16
  weeks long. So it's four weeks longer this
• 2:19
  year than last year. That's crazy long cycle, but
• 2:23
  it's been this long before. But the whole point is the storm
• 2:27
  that just hit the Wasp with flooding, avalanches, major
• 2:29
  snowstorm in the mountains of around Lake Tahoe where I was
• 2:33
  predictable and predicted. It's one of our first
• 2:36
  predictions of the season that is just a slam dunk LRC
• 2:39
  prediction. While others scramble, they tell
• 2:42
  you they can't forecast beyond 10 to 15 days with any accuracy.
• 2:46
  We just did and next week I'm going to be at Farm Con and
• 2:51
  we're going to be talking about the planting, growing, harvest
• 2:55
  season. So when we discussed in our
• 2:58
  first podcast recorded in the new year, we will be discussing
• 3:02
  some of that information that I'll be sharing with the
• 3:04
  farmers. And hopefully, if you are coming
• 3:07
  to Farm Con, please come by and say hi.
• 3:09
  We'll have a booth and we look forward to meeting you and
• 3:12
  talking about this amazing technology we're bringing to the
• 3:15
  world. But yeah, I just went to Lake
• 3:16
  Tahoe. It was great.
• 3:19
  But they had like 4 inches of liquid precipitation, 2 inches
• 3:24
  over 2 inches were all rain. And when it changed the snow, I
• 3:28
  did my usual Gary scream of yes because it literally changed the
• 3:34
  snow in like 5 minutes and and it never stopped after that.
• 3:38
  But it was dreamy up at Lake Tahoe that.
• 3:41
  Is awesome. I'm so glad that you got to
• 3:43
  experience your Winter Wonderland Christmas because
• 3:48
  Colorado is not giving it to you this year.
• 3:50
  Amazing. Yeah, I know.
• 3:53
  Yeah, Lauren, Colorado's got a problem.
• 3:55
  As of this morning, the ski areas are about 50% of their
• 4:01
  average snowfall by this time of the year.
• 4:04
  Can they catch up? Yes.
• 4:06
  The odds of them catching up are very low because this is the
• 4:10
  whole point of the LRC. What has caused the dry weather
• 4:15
  over the mountains will continue.
• 4:18
  And so the March version, you know the February version, maybe
• 4:22
  it turns the quarter a little bit, but they're going to be
• 4:25
  below average percent of the lifts are open of the terrain is
• 4:30
  open in Vail, Co right now, 15% during a holiday week.
• 4:36
  So that probably is a major revenue disaster for them during
• 4:41
  this week. But January and February they
• 4:43
  can recoup some of those losses. But it is the LRC, the weather
• 4:47
  pattern that is cycling that is causing this.
• 4:49
  A storm just hit the Northeast. A snowed in New York City and
• 4:53
  the big cities off in the northeastern part of the
• 4:56
  country. They're near what's called an
• 4:57
  anchor through and they are going to get hit again and again
• 5:00
  and again. But for the Rockies, not good
• 5:03
  for the West Coast, good for the Plains and the Corn Belt, for
• 5:07
  the Cattle USA region. Some concerns, will we have a a
• 5:13
  drought or not? That's something we will discuss
• 5:15
  and we will really be able to pin down in the next few weeks.
• 5:19
  Yes, definitely. It's definitely concern for a
• 5:22
  lot of people out there as we go into spring, as we go into
• 5:25
  planting season and just as we kind of prepare for 2026 and
• 5:30
  what all is in store as we finish out this rest of this
• 5:35
  year. And just look into, I think so
• 5:38
  many people are focused on spring right now.
• 5:40
  What is going to happen in spring?
• 5:42
  What can we anticipate? What do we need to be preparing
• 5:45
  for right now? Do we need to be getting some
• 5:47
  protection on whether it be our pasture ground or just some
• 5:51
  additional protection on our livestock and different things
• 5:54
  like that as concern to the weather?
• 5:56
  So what are your kind of your thoughts as we start the New
• 5:59
  year and what we can anticipate as we go forward?
• 6:02
  Well, as we start the new year, the first thing that pops into
• 6:05
  my mind based on the cycling pattern is the fact that we
• 6:09
  talked about it last week. There's going to be a major heat
• 6:11
  wave and the heat wave is most likely during the hottest time
• 6:15
  of the year, which means it's really going to be hot.
• 6:17
  Then the last week of July, 1st week of August is time to have
• 6:21
  that major heat wave. What happens before then is
• 6:25
  critical for the, you know, impacts on your dairy farms in
• 6:32
  the Cattle USA, you know, impacts for for wheat, for corn,
• 6:36
  for soybeans, you know, what is going to happen for planting and
• 6:40
  growing season before we get to that heat wave.
• 6:43
  And because if what happens part of the pendants can produce the
• 6:47
  major heat wave is due the last week of July, 1st week of
• 6:51
  August. Remember, we're in about a ten
• 6:53
  week cycle. So 10 weeks before that would be
• 6:56
  around mid-May ish. All right.
• 6:59
  And so there's Rainbow mid, mid-May that's so sweet anyway.
• 7:06
  And so that could also block the pattern up, get some warmth and
• 7:12
  all of a sudden dry things out before we get to the heat wave.
• 7:16
  And that could be a problem. So something to monitor.
• 7:19
  I'm going to make some conclusions here soon, but just
• 7:23
  know that there's concern. It's next week where I'm going
• 7:27
  to complete my analysis for Farm Con, and so we'll talk about
• 7:32
  some of those conclusions soon. And then as we talk about just
• 7:37
  storm systems and everything like that, a lot is happening in
• 7:40
  California right now as far as storm systems are concerned and
• 7:44
  what we can kind of see the rest of the year.
• 7:47
  And obviously what's happening on either of the coasts does
• 7:50
  impact us in the Midwest, kind of no matter where your region
• 7:53
  is. So what are your thoughts on
• 7:55
  currently what we're seeing as far as storm systems go in
• 7:57
  California? Well, what's happening?
• 7:59
  We have what's called an anchor Ridge.
• 8:01
  It's centered near Colorado, which is probably the number one
• 8:04
  reason why that is a struggle to get snow there.
• 8:08
  California is east of what's called an anchor through over
• 8:12
  the Pacific. So these storm systems have been
• 8:14
  intensifying a little bit. They get to California, but when
• 8:18
  they leave and start moving into that Ridge towards Colorado, the
• 8:22
  storm systems fall apart. In most weather patterns, that
• 8:27
  isn't the case. The storm system may even
• 8:29
  intensify for California into the Rockies and out into the
• 8:34
  Plains. This year's pattern has been
• 8:36
  killed. Most of those storms, not all of
• 8:38
  them, there's enough that that sneak in and sneak through, but
• 8:42
  they they're not very strong. It's really absolutely
• 8:46
  fascinating. So California's going to get hit
• 8:49
  again here in the next 10 days. They're going to get another
• 8:51
  series of storm systems and then then in around the end of
• 8:55
  January, a really strong storm is going to hit California
• 8:58
  again. That's when we might have the
• 9:02
  conditions favorable for that ice storm, major winter storm
• 9:05
  for the Plains. If the Arctic Oscillation goes
• 9:09
  deep negative and La Nina fades towards neutral, those two
• 9:16
  ingredients I expect to happen, I'm predicting will happen.
• 9:21
  So that could lead to a big storm, which would be good for
• 9:24
  moisture content, but it could be problematic for travel.
• 9:28
  Yeah, absolutely, definitely something to keep our eyes on.
• 9:32
  We had AI experienced a new weather term this yesterday,
• 9:38
  Gary. I got a National Weather alert
• 9:41
  like thing on my phone. I.
• 9:42
  Know what you're going to say? Yesterday.
• 9:43
  Yeah, it was. What is it called?
• 9:46
  It's the snow. Squaw warnings.
• 9:49
  Yes, snow squaw. We had a snow squaw here.
• 9:53
  I'd never heard of that. I got the notification on my
• 9:56
  phone and it was an emergency alert.
• 9:58
  Like my phone was buzzing, flashing and all of the things.
• 10:01
  And I was like, what is a snow squaw?
• 10:05
  What does that even mean? Well, a snow squaw will be a
• 10:09
  rapid increase in snow and wind that is in a localized event
• 10:14
  like a severe thunderstorm and it hits a county or two and then
• 10:19
  it weakens. And so just South of you between
• 10:24
  Topeka and Manhattan, really down along the, they put this
• 10:29
  snow squaw warning out on December the 28th because of,
• 10:36
  of, of the little bit of snow that developed.
• 10:40
  But it had 50 mile per hour winds.
• 10:43
  So in just 10 minutes, if you were driving or you lived there
• 10:48
  in 10 minutes and go from nothing to only 1/4 inch or 1/2
• 10:53
  inch of snow. But Blizzard conditions for like
• 10:56
  15 minutes and it could cause all kinds of problems for
• 11:01
  travel. That's why the issue is a snow
• 11:03
  squaw warning. These kind of things happen
• 11:05
  along the Great Lakes a lot. You know it's a lake effect
• 11:08
  warning, but there are literally snow squalls that come off the
• 11:11
  lake. Yes, it was very interesting.
• 11:14
  I was sitting in my chair reading my book yesterday, just
• 11:17
  kind of cuddled up enjoying the winter break and all of a sudden
• 11:21
  it went from nothing to and we were getting a lot of wind here
• 11:24
  in Kansas on Sunday and it went from nothing to I could not see
• 11:28
  my back tits now. Like it was absolutely insane.
• 11:33
  And now I've got a solid sheet of ice pretty much everywhere
• 11:36
  now because on all of the roads it was still just warm enough
• 11:40
  for when it hit the road, just melted, but then froze and it's
• 11:44
  still kind of messy out there. Believable.
• 11:48
  Experience something new, Gary, as we go into the new year.
• 11:52
  We have had a major growth in this podcast over the past year.
• 11:55
  We've got a lot of new people. Can you like elevator pitch,
• 11:59
  explain the LRC again for everyone?
• 12:03
  I feel like that's a great way to start out the new year.
• 12:04
  Just kind of explain what the LRC is, the theory behind it,
• 12:09
  and what that kind of means as we go into our second year of
• 12:12
  podcast together. I'm going to thank you.
• 12:14
  I'm going to talk about what the LRC is and then we'll finish
• 12:19
  this podcast with the top three weather events of the year
• 12:24
  across the United States. Perfect.
• 12:26
  I love. It.
• 12:27
  So we'll finish off with that and there's an LRC cause and
• 12:31
  reason or impact from those on in those top events that we will
• 12:37
  discuss or two of the three events anyway.
• 12:39
  But the LRC, the weather pattern sets up every fall around
• 12:44
  October 5th or 6th is when it begins.
• 12:47
  There's a whole deep, long discussion on how it starts in
• 12:51
  that first week of October. But every year a unique weather
• 12:55
  pattern sets up. In other words, a pattern that
• 12:57
  has never existed before in the fall, in the early fall, and
• 13:02
  then a cycle develops. Last year cycled about every 41
• 13:07
  days or so. This year it's much longer.
• 13:11
  It's likely around 70 to 76 days.
• 13:14
  So why didn't it stretch from 41 days last year to seventyish
• 13:19
  days this year? That's something we're working
• 13:21
  on on our research, but I can prove that is cycles that
• 13:26
  regularly by what just happened with that storm in California we
• 13:30
  talked about earlier. So basically, there are 4 core
• 13:33
  principles to the LRC 1A unique weather pattern sets up to the
• 13:38
  site pattern cycles and repeats over and over and over again
• 13:42
  until the next fall. And three, these anchor ridges
• 13:45
  and troughs form one of them. Is there an anchor Ridge near
• 13:48
  Colorado? Why it's been so problematic for
• 13:51
  getting snow in the Rockies this year so far.
• 13:54
  And then those are the three main aspects.
• 13:57
  But basically the whole pattern repeats over and over again.
• 14:01
  So that's what the LRC is. So if a storm hits California
• 14:05
  and like it did October 14th, we knew it would come back, we just
• 14:09
  didn't know when. Now that it has come back, now
• 14:13
  we know when that part of the pattern is going to produce
• 14:16
  again. Now we know when it's going to
• 14:19
  turn hot this summer, so it allows us to know when and where
• 14:23
  things are going to happen. That's the LRC.
• 14:26
  I know it's pretty complex, but you can read all about it if you
• 14:30
  just become a member for a very low cost at our Go to Weather
• 14:34
  2020. The link is right here.
• 14:36
  Lauren, I'll tell you about that in a second.
• 14:38
  Now to the top three weather events of the year #3 this is
• 14:44
  how I see it. And you might have forgotten
• 14:46
  about this, but the number 3. Likely not completely LRC
• 14:50
  related, but there's some hint of it.
• 14:53
  Last year, the California wildfires that killed all those
• 14:58
  people and destroyed homes in Los Angeles, that is the #3
• 15:03
  weather event of the year. So just a horrible, horrible,
• 15:08
  horrible event. The number 2 weather event of
• 15:12
  last year was actually a March tornado outbreak.
• 15:15
  Strong direct LRC prediction of that.
• 15:18
  By the way, we called that the segment A of the weather
• 15:22
  pattern, but this was huge. The severe weather segment was
• 15:26
  identified months in advance and it happened March 13th, 16th and
• 15:31
  there were a lot of fatalities from that.
• 15:33
  The Denver One weather event of the year.
• 15:37
  Lord, tell me if you agree. The Guadalupe River flooding
• 15:42
  disaster. Remember that.
• 15:44
  Absolutely. I knew exactly where you were
• 15:46
  going to go with that one. I agree with that.
• 15:48
  It's like already under the radar.
• 15:50
  People are already somewhat forgetting about it, but
• 15:53
  unfortunately young children were swept away and killed.
• 15:58
  It's a disastrous problem that happened that had some hint that
• 16:06
  it was going to happen hours before and if they just had a
• 16:09
  warning sign at the campgrounds going flooding threat danger at
• 16:15
  extreme levels. Highly recommend staying away
• 16:19
  from the riverbeds cause a lot of those campgrounds are right
• 16:23
  along the river. It doesn't flood that often but
• 16:26
  it had in the past and this was the worst one.
• 16:30
  And so lots of people lost their lives, over 100 people.
• 16:34
  And so that's the number one weather event of the year.
• 16:37
  It has been a wild year in 2025 and as we prep for 2026, we are
• 16:45
  here to bring you all of the prediction that we can and just
• 16:49
  thoughts as we go into spring, as we go into summer, as we
• 16:52
  prepare for these major weather events that we're inevitably
• 16:55
  going to see in 2026. And it just prepare as much as
• 16:59
  we humanly possibly can as we go into that, as Gary said.
• 17:04
  And all of the links are going to be down in the show notes for
• 17:06
  everything that we chatted about today so that you guys can go
• 17:09
  get in on the weather 2020 secret and all of the things
• 17:13
  that are down below. So Gary, thank you as always for
• 17:18
  coming on and sharing your insight, sharing your thoughts
• 17:20
  on the weather pattern as it sets up for the new year.
• 17:23
  Happy New Year to everyone listening and we will see you
• 17:27
  all next week on another episode.
• 17:30
  Have a good one y'all.