Latest / The President's Daily Brief / November 5th, 2026: Iran's New Guerrilla War in the Strait of Hormuz & Poland's Russian Border Alert

Transcript

November 5th, 2026: Iran's New Guerrilla War in the Strait of Hormuz & Poland's Russian Border Alert · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Thursday,
0:14
the 5th of November.
0:15
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:17
I'm Mike Baker,
0:18
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:21
All right,
0:22
let's get briefed.
0:23
First up,
0:24
Iran is turning to guerrilla warfare in the Strait of Hormuz,
0:28
using underwater drones and naval mines and
0:31
explosives attached to vessels to challenge American
0:35
naval forces and disrupt global shipping.
0:38
Later in the show,
0:39
Poland mobilizes security forces along its border with Russia
0:42
as Prime Minister Donald Tusk
0:44
warns of a possible provocation targeting NATO's eastern Front.
0:48
Well,
0:48
that's what 2026 needed,
0:49
wasn't it?
0:50
More provocation,
0:51
more conflict,
0:52
huzzah.
0:53
Plus,
0:53
Ukraine's security establishment faces another scandal
0:56
as investigators accuse senior intelligence and law enforcement officials
1:00
of protecting criminal operations in exchange for bribes.
1:04
And in today's back of the brief.
1:06
After targeting supermarket freezers across Europe,
1:09
hackers have reportedly struck again this time
1:13
attacking refrigerated blood supplies in France.
1:16
But first,
1:17
today's PDB spotlight.
1:19
Iran is changing the way that it fights in the Strait of Hormuz,
1:23
turning more and more to guerrilla-style attacks
1:26
against commercial shipping as American forces continue to patrol
1:30
the waterway and maintain a blockade of Iranian ports.
1:34
According to a new investigation by the Wall Street Journal,
1:36
Tehran is increasingly relying on explosive underwater drones and naval mines
1:41
and small attack boats to threaten tankers and disrupt oil exports.
1:46
One recent incident illustrates the strategy.
1:49
On the 29th of October,
1:50
a small boat approached an oil tanker traveling
1:53
through the strait roughly 25 nautical miles northeast
1:57
of the Omani port of Kassab.
1:59
The attackers attached two explosive devices to the vessel's hull
2:03
just above the water line.
2:04
The explosives detonated,
2:06
igniting a fire in the engine room and temporarily disabling the ship.
2:10
The vessel,
2:11
identified by maritime security sources as the Panama flagged Louise One.
2:15
Survived the attack.
2:17
The crew escaped injury.
2:18
Firefighters extinguished the blaze,
2:20
and the tanker eventually continued its voyage.
2:23
Authorities have not publicly established who
2:25
carried out that particular attack.
2:27
Oh,
2:27
who could it be?
2:29
If only we had clues.
2:31
But regional officials and security analysts
2:33
say it reflects a broader Iranian campaign
2:35
that's become increasingly aggressive in recent weeks.
2:38
The Journal reports that Iran is employing several unconventional weapons.
2:43
Among them are explosive-laden underwater drones.
2:46
Iranian forces are also using small boats armed with rocket-propelled grenades
2:50
and teams capable of attaching limpet mines directly to ships.
2:54
Now limpet mines are explosive charges
2:57
designed to stick to a vessel's hull,
2:59
typically using magnets.
3:00
They're relatively inexpensive,
3:02
can be deployed from small boats,
3:04
and
3:04
can cause substantial damage,
3:06
of course,
3:06
without requiring a conventional naval engagement.
3:09
Now none of these tactics are new.
3:11
Iran has used small boat attacks and limpet mines many times in the past,
3:15
including
3:16
during confrontations with commercial shipping back in 2019.
3:19
But what's changed is the military environment in which Iran is operating.
3:23
After months of American strikes,
3:25
much of Iran's conventional naval capability has been destroyed.
3:29
US forces have attacked warships,
3:31
coastal defenses,
3:32
missile positions,
3:32
and
3:33
other infrastructure used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
3:36
the IRGC.
3:38
To threaten shipping
3:39
last week,
3:40
Admiral Brad Cooper,
3:40
commander of US Central Command CEO,
3:43
described just how much the balance of power has shifted
3:46
after flying over the Strait of Hormuz.
3:48
Cooper said he observed commercial vessels and
3:50
American military assets operating throughout the waterway,
3:53
but he said there was something missing.
3:55
He said,
3:56
quote,
3:56
I didn't see the IRGC out there at all,
3:59
end quote.
4:00
Well,
4:00
Cooper said American forces had destroyed Iran's navy
4:03
and cleared the principal shipping routes of naval mines.
4:06
CENTCO also reports that
4:08
more than 3000 commercial vessels have successfully passed through the
4:12
strait with American support over the past 6 months.
4:16
Now,
4:16
rather than attempting to challenge American warships directly,
4:20
Tehran is reportedly dispersing its remaining capabilities,
4:24
relying on smaller weapons and operating methods that are much harder to detect.
4:28
The Journal reports that Iran has increasingly turned to
4:31
spotters aboard civilian-looking boats to monitor commercial shipping.
4:36
Those observers then blend in to ordinary maritime traffic,
4:39
and they relay information about passing vessels
4:42
without relying entirely on coastal radar installations
4:45
that American aircraft can locate and destroy.
4:48
The result is an asymmetric campaign in which
4:51
Iran can inflict damage at relatively little cost
4:55
while forcing the US to commit substantial resources
4:58
to protecting commercial traffic,
5:00
and the attacks are increasing.
5:03
According to the journal,
5:04
British maritime authorities recorded more than
5:06
35 attacks against shipping during October.
5:09
Now that's the highest monthly total since the war began.
5:12
At least 5 additional vessels
5:14
have reportedly been struck in the opening days of November.
5:17
Iran has also claimed that 4 tankers were
5:19
destroyed after striking naval mines near the strait.
5:22
However,
5:23
those claims have not been independently verified,
5:26
and Gulf officials believe Tehran may be exaggerating the mine threat
5:30
to frighten shipping companies.
5:32
Look,
5:32
the reality is Iran doesn't need to sink
5:35
dozens of tankers to disrupt international commerce.
5:38
It only needs to convince shipping and insurance companies
5:41
that the risk of sending their vessels through the Strait
5:44
is too great.
5:45
And the economic consequences are substantial.
5:47
According to shipping data firm Kepler.
5:50
Oil flows through Hormuz averaged approximately 7.8
5:53
million barrels per day during the week,
5:55
ending the 1st of November.
5:57
Now that's roughly 45% of pre-war levels following a period in October
6:02
when shipments had nearly recovered to pre-war levels.
6:06
Meanwhile,
6:06
the International Energy Agency reports that transporting
6:09
crude oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia
6:12
costs nearly $37 per barrel in mid-October.
6:16
That's more than
6:17
5 times the pre-war price.
6:20
And of course
6:21
those additional expenses are ultimately reflected in global energy markets
6:25
and at the local gas station.
6:27
For Washington,
6:28
the ongoing challenge is clear.
6:31
American forces have severely degraded Iran's conventional navy,
6:34
and they've restored substantial commercial traffic
6:37
while maintaining a blockade against Iranian ports.
6:40
But defeating Iran's conventional naval force has not yet translated
6:45
into an open,
6:46
stable,
6:46
and safe Strait of Hormuz.
6:48
Iran can't match American naval firepower.
6:51
That's a statement of the obvious.
6:52
But by adapting its tactics
6:54
and targeting vulnerable commercial vessels,
6:57
it can continue and is continuing
6:59
to impose costs,
7:01
disrupting trade and maintaining pressure on Washington.
7:04
Coming up next,
7:05
Poland mobilizes forces along its border with Russia over fears of a
7:10
major Kremlin provocation.
7:12
And a corruption scandal implicates senior Ukrainian security officials.
7:16
I'll be right back.
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8:26
Poland has launched a major security operation along its border with Russia
8:31
following intelligence warnings that Moscow could
8:33
be preparing sabotage or armed provocations
8:36
against the NATO member.
8:38
The operation is focused on Poland's northeastern frontier with Kaliningrad.
8:42
Now that's the heavily militarized Russian territory
8:44
that's sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
8:47
And Polish authorities say they may have already disrupted a potential incident
8:52
shortly after midnight Tuesday.
8:53
Border guards reportedly spotted several individuals
8:56
carrying flashlights near the frontier.
8:59
Security forces responded and the unidentified
9:01
individuals withdrew toward Russian territory.
9:05
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the rapid
9:06
response may have prevented a serious provocation.
9:09
However,
9:10
he added
9:10
the authorities could not establish what the individuals were planning,
9:13
and
9:14
there's been no confirmation that anyone crossed
9:16
the border or attempted an attack.
9:18
The incident comes amid unusually specific intelligence warnings.
9:22
According to Polish officials,
9:24
the country's military intelligence service and allied agencies
9:27
received information suggesting that Russia might
9:30
attempt hostile operations along the border
9:33
during the first half of November.
9:35
The potential threats reportedly
9:36
include sabotage against critical infrastructure
9:39
and incursions by small groups of armed personnel.
9:42
Tusk also said he'd received warnings from General Alexis Grikovich,
9:46
NATO's top military commander in Europe,
9:48
regarding possible hostile activity.
9:51
In response,
9:51
Poland has mobilized additional police officers,
9:54
border guards,
9:55
counterterrorism units,
9:56
and military personnel,
9:57
including members of its elite special operations force.
10:00
A special command center has been established
10:02
in Warsaw to coordinate the operation,
10:05
which is expected to continue through at least the 8th of November.
10:09
Now,
10:10
the geography here is particularly important.
10:13
Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea,
10:16
separated from mainland Russia but positioned directly against NATO territory.
10:21
It hosts significant Russian military forces
10:24
and provides Moscow with a strategic foothold between Poland and Lithuania.
10:29
Just to the southeast lies the Sewolki Gap.
10:31
That's a narrow corridor
10:33
along the Polish-Lithuanian border that connects the Baltic states
10:37
to the rest of NATO.
10:39
Military planners have long identified this area as
10:41
a potential flashpoint in any confrontation between Russia
10:45
and the NATO alliance.
10:46
A conflict threatening that corridor could
10:49
complicate NATO's ability to reinforce Estonia,
10:52
Latvia,
10:52
and Lithuania.
10:54
But Polish officials are not currently warning of a full-scale Russian invasion.
10:58
Their immediate concern
11:00
is something smaller and potentially more difficult to manage covert sabotage,
11:04
armed infiltrators,
11:05
or a confrontation deliberately engineered
11:07
to test NATO's response.
11:10
Warsaw has repeatedly accused Russian intelligence services of conducting
11:13
sabotage and other hostile operations on Polish territory.
11:17
Russian aircraft and drones have also repeatedly violated NATO airspace,
11:22
contributing to growing concerns about the possibility
11:25
of an incident escalating beyond Ukraine.
11:28
The latest security operation reflects Poland's determination to
11:31
prevent such an incident before it develops,
11:34
but there are still
11:35
important unanswered questions.
11:37
Neither Polish authorities nor NATO have publicly
11:40
disclosed the intelligence behind these latest warnings,
11:43
and while Tusk believes Tuesday's suspicious border activity
11:46
may have been connected to a planned provocation,
11:49
there is no publicly available evidence establishing
11:52
Russian involvement in that particular incident.
11:55
All right.
11:56
Turning our focus to Ukraine,
11:58
where a sweeping corruption investigation
12:01
has reached into the highest levels of the country's security establishment,
12:04
exposing
12:05
an alleged criminal protection racket involving intelligence officers,
12:09
police officials,
12:10
and prosecutors.
12:11
The investigation took a dramatic turn Wednesday when
12:14
anti-corruption detectives reportedly found
12:16
themselves threatened with gunfire while
12:18
attempting to search the property of a senior intelligence officer.
12:22
According to Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau,
12:25
detectives arrived with a court-issued warrant only to be denied entry by an
12:29
officer from the security service of Ukraine known as the SBU.
12:33
The bureau
12:34
says the officer threatened to use a firearm.
12:37
Ukrainian media identified him as Major General Sergei Duka,
12:40
as a senior officer
12:42
responsible for protecting national security.
12:45
Later Wednesday,
12:46
Ukraine's Skravda reported that Duka had been detained,
12:49
citing sources within law enforcement.
12:51
Authorities have not independently confirmed that arrest.
12:55
Investigators say they've uncovered a criminal organization
12:58
involving at least 12 individuals,
13:00
including senior officials from Ukraine's intelligence service,
13:03
national police,
13:03
and prosecutor general's office.
13:06
The operation known as Carthage,
13:07
allegedly involved an extensive network of
13:09
fraudulent call centers employing approximately 2700 people
13:14
scamming victims both inside Ukraine and abroad.
13:17
But the illegal activities reportedly went far beyond financial fraud.
13:21
Investigators say the network was also involved in
13:23
distributing narcotics,
13:24
producing counterfeit cigarettes and foreign currency,
13:27
and organizing violent assaults and kidnappings.
13:30
And rather than shutting these operations down,
13:32
certain government officials
13:34
allegedly accepted bribes to protect them.
13:37
According to investigators,
13:38
the criminal organization used its connections inside
13:41
law enforcement to obtain protection from prosecution
13:44
and to keep the illegal businesses operating.
13:46
The investigation has already produced significant consequences.
13:50
Ukraine's acting intelligence chief Oleksander Poklat
13:53
confirmed Wednesday that two senior SBU officers
13:56
implicated in the investigation have been dismissed.
13:59
The national police has suspended officers under investigation,
14:02
while the prosecutor general's office says
14:04
it's cooperating with authorities.
14:06
Well,
14:06
that's nice.
14:07
The scandal actually began unfolding in September
14:09
when investigators accused a senior prosecutor.
14:12
Of helping operate a protection racket involving fraudulent call centers,
14:16
that investigation
14:18
contributed to the resignation of
14:19
Ukraine's prosecutor general Ruslan Kravchenko,
14:22
although he's not been charged with a crime.
14:25
Kruvchenko has since accused investigators
14:27
of pursuing a politically motivated campaign
14:30
designed to destabilize Ukraine,
14:33
and there's some history here.
14:34
Ukraine's Independent anti-corruption Bureau and the SBU
14:38
have been locked in a bitter institutional dispute.
14:41
Last year,
14:41
the intelligence service arrested anti-corruption detectives in operations
14:45
that critics characterized as an attempt to undermine
14:48
the bureau's independence.
14:50
Now
14:51
anti-corruption investigators
14:52
are investigating the intelligence service,
14:55
and Wednesday brought another corruption development.
14:57
Investigators announced that they had completed a separate investigation
15:00
into an alleged money laundering operation involving Ukraine's energy sector,
15:05
where more than $111 million.12 million euros were reportedly laundered.
15:11
Now that's a separate case,
15:12
but it does illustrate the broader corruption challenges
15:15
confronting President Zelensky's government.
15:18
For Ukraine,
15:18
these investigations present two realities.
15:21
On one hand,
15:22
allegations that intelligence and law
15:24
enforcement officials protected organized crime
15:27
raise serious questions about corruption inside
15:30
institutions entrusted with national security.
15:32
On the other,
15:33
The fact that independent investigators are pursuing senior officials
15:37
demonstrates that Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies continue
15:40
operating even when their targets include
15:43
some of the country's most powerful institutions.
15:46
And with Ukraine seeking European Union membership while fighting,
15:49
of course,
15:49
a costly war,
15:51
the outcome of these investigations
15:53
could have consequences extending well beyond the individuals accused.
15:58
All right.
15:58
Coming up in the back of the brief,
16:00
hackers target French blood banks,
16:02
remotely raising refrigeration temperatures at facilities,
16:05
storing critical blood supplies.
16:07
More on that
16:09
when we come back.
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In today's back of the brief earlier this week we told
19:09
you about a bizarre wave of cyber attacks across Europe.
19:13
Hackers were breaking into the control
19:15
systems for supermarket refrigerators and freezers,
19:18
raising temperatures remotely
19:19
and forcing stores to throw away spoiled food.
19:23
Well,
19:23
now a similar attack has targeted something considerably more sensitive
19:27
than the frozen food section.
19:29
And that would be France's blood supply.
19:31
French authorities say hackers accessed
19:33
refrigeration controls at three facilities
19:35
operated by the country's National Blood Service.
19:38
The attacks took place overnight Sunday into Monday,
19:41
targeting cold storage units containing plasma for transfusions,
19:44
medicines,
19:45
and other medical uses.
19:47
According to published reports,
19:48
the hackers tried unsuccessfully
19:50
to push some settings from around -22
19:53
°F
19:54
to as high as 230 degrees.
19:57
Fortunately,
19:58
the safeguards that are in place worked.
20:00
Automated monitoring systems detected the changes.
20:03
Technicians intervened,
20:04
and medical supplies were moved to unaffected storage units where necessary.
20:09
France's Blood Service says no blood products or biological samples were lost,
20:13
and collection and distribution continued without interruption.
20:16
Now what's particularly concerning is how the attackers reportedly got in.
20:21
Investigators believe they access the controls
20:23
through an outside refrigeration supplier rather than
20:26
directly breaching the blood service's main computer system
20:30
that illustrates a vulnerability facing hospitals
20:32
and retailers and other facilities.
20:35
Even when their own networks are protected,
20:37
equipment maintained remotely by outside companies or vendors
20:40
can provide another route for attackers.
20:43
The supermarket attacks that we discussed previously on
20:45
the PDB affected stores in several European countries.
20:49
In some cases,
20:50
hackers switched refrigeration equipment into defrost mode or raised
20:54
temperature settings until food had to be discarded.
20:57
Similar incidents were reported in France weeks earlier.
21:01
Authorities are investigating whether the attacks are connected,
21:03
but so far no one has established who is responsible.
21:07
There's also no
21:08
verified evidence
21:09
linking the incidents to Russia or China or Iran or any other hostile state actor.
21:16
And that,
21:16
my friends,
21:17
is the president's daily brief
21:18
for Thursday,
21:19
the 5th of November.
21:20
If you have any questions or comments,
21:22
please reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
21:26
And finally,
21:26
if you find yourself with a few minutes of free time,
21:29
I do hope you'll check out our YouTube channel.
21:31
Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief.
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If you like what you see,
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well,
21:37
maybe hit that subscribe button.
21:39
I'm Mike Baker,
21:40
and I'll be back later today with the PDB
21:43
afternoon bulletin.
21:44
Until then.
21:45
Stay informed,
21:46
stay safe,
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stay cool.