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Interview Only w/ Abby Livingston - Has Texas Finally Turned Purple? · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
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  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
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  Speaker 1: then call chapter. today at 980-734-3985. Given the amount of
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  Speaker 1: questions I get about all things Texas, the conversations I've
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  Speaker 1: been having with many of my sources on both sides
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  Speaker 1: of the aisle in Texas, I feel like we need
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  Speaker 1: a deeper dive on just how real. This is not
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  Speaker 1: about whether Texas can turn blue. To me, it's about
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  Speaker 1: whether have we hit the moment where Texas is now purple?
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  Speaker 1: Still could mean that Team Red wins most everything. But
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  Speaker 1: is this the year that we start to see some
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  Speaker 1: purple in Texas? And the person that I have worked
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  Speaker 1: with over the years that I think knows as much
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  Speaker 1: about Texas politics as anybody I know, is a longtime,
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  Speaker 1: is a former colleague of mine at NBC. She spent
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  Speaker 1: seven years at the Texas Tribune, is a contributor to
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  Speaker 1: POC now. And those in Texas know her reporting very well.
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  Speaker 1: It's my friend, Abby Livingston, a Fort Worth native, correct? Correct.
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  Speaker 2: It's the Swing County. So- I don't know if it
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  Speaker 2: will be this cycle, but it has gone back and forth.
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  Speaker 2: But it is it's Tarrant County is a very rough
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  Speaker 2: place for Republicans right now.
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  Speaker 1: North Texas in general is just and as you know,
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  Speaker 1: as you know, and and my listeners know, I'm more
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  Speaker 1: familiar with North Texas all the time, thanks to my
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  Speaker 1: son living in the actual city of Dallas. And it
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  Speaker 1: is I mean. Abby, just that area alone reminds me
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  Speaker 1: of just watching Northern Virginia become Northern Virginia in the 90s.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not saying, but you can just start to see it, right?
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  Speaker 1: You see all these companies coming in. You see people
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  Speaker 1: moving from all over the country. You see Americans of
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  Speaker 1: all different stripes, all different ethnicities and backgrounds, despite what Mr.
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  Speaker 1: Beau French seemed to dislike at the UT game. The
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  Speaker 1: point is, is that It really reminds me of Loudoun
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  Speaker 1: County late 90s, to be to be frank.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's a really fair comparison. But the one
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  Speaker 2: caveat I will have with that is just a reminder
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  Speaker 2: that Texas is just so big. That it's hard to
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  Speaker 2: make a comparison to a single like dominant metro region
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  Speaker 2: like Chicago or northern Virginia. And so but DFW is now,
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  Speaker 2: I believe, 34 percent. That media market is 34 percent
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  Speaker 2: of the state of Texas, which is staggering.
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  Speaker 1: That is amazing. So right there, that is now the
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  Speaker 1: biggest that there is that. Do we even call it
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  Speaker 1: one media market?
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  Speaker 2: I think so. I mean, as a Fort Worth resident
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  Speaker 2: with little brother syndrome, we would like to call it
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  Speaker 2: the Fort Worth Dallas metropolitan area. But I mean, and
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  Speaker 2: this is sort of my... My Twitter rant, Dallas is
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  Speaker 2: massive and has always been massive. But Fort Worth is
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  Speaker 2: now the 10th largest city in America, and most people
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  Speaker 2: don't really even know anything about it. So when you
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  Speaker 2: think about it, these are two massive cities next to
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  Speaker 2: each other.
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  Speaker 1: By the way, it's not just Fort Worth that has this,
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  Speaker 1: I think, inferiority complex. How about poor old San Antonio,
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  Speaker 1: which is considered the double little brothers of Houston and Austin,
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  Speaker 1: and it's what, eighth largest city in the country now?
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  Speaker 2: Which is funny because when I was growing up, San
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  Speaker 2: Antonio was the big brother to Austin. And Fort Worth
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  Speaker 2: is just– I mean, I grew up on Dallas politics,
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  Speaker 2: Dallas school board politics. And I couldn't have told you
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  Speaker 2: who the Fort Worth school board was when I was
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  Speaker 2: growing up on the news.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, wow. Interesting.
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  Speaker 2: And it's– I mean, we can just start with Tarrant.
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  Speaker 2: I think South Texas is by far the most pivotal
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  Speaker 2: part of the state. But Tarrant– To give a sense
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  Speaker 2: of what Tarrant County is like, it's got Fort Worth,
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  Speaker 2: this big metropolitan area, and its historical economic engine has
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  Speaker 2: been Lockheed and Bell Helicopter and then oil and gas.
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  Speaker 2: And I love it as a political place. And I
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  Speaker 2: want to be clear, I live in New York. I'm
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  Speaker 2: not on the ground in Texas, but I'm watching it
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  Speaker 2: from afar. And I hope one of the benefits of
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  Speaker 2: that is seeing the watermarks. But there are many great
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  Speaker 2: reporters on the ground.
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  Speaker 1: All right. Let's do this, Abby. Let's let's give give
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  Speaker 1: let's do. I want to do Texas 101 here before
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  Speaker 1: we dig in, which is you just we started with
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  Speaker 1: North Texas and we just sort of stumbled into this.
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  Speaker 1: But then I realized and you brought up South Texas
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  Speaker 1: and we need to talk about West Texas. It is.
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  Speaker 1: I guess it's five states. How many if you were
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  Speaker 1: to divide the state up into the sort of digestible
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  Speaker 1: political chunks, North Texas, South Texas, West What else? Give
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  Speaker 1: me the other chunks.
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  Speaker 2: So they refer to the triangle, which is basically Interstate
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  Speaker 2: 35 from DFW down to Austin and San Antonio and
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  Speaker 2: then cut over to Houston and back up and up I-45.
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  Speaker 2: And so that's the big cities. That's, you know.
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  Speaker 1: I did that drive. I flew to Houston, drove to Austin,
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  Speaker 1: drove to Dallas, did not go back to Houston. But
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  Speaker 1: I did that triangle when doing college tours with my son,
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  Speaker 1: that exact. And I'll just will tell you, blown away
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  Speaker 1: by the size of the interstates. And I come from
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  Speaker 1: an interstate state like the state of Florida. But nobody
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  Speaker 1: has a 27 lane highway that I've yet to come across,
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  Speaker 1: even my friends in Atlanta. But you do have that
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  Speaker 1: in Dallas. It's pretty impressive. But that is a massive
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  Speaker 1: area that you just described. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: And so I would say like most the most of
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  Speaker 2: the population is there and most people who live in
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  Speaker 2: those cities have in their lives gone to those cities
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  Speaker 2: for family, college, things like that.
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  Speaker 1: It's a regular thing, right? Houston to Austin to Dallas
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  Speaker 1: like that. That is they're all close enough where what
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  Speaker 1: probably at least once every six months somebody is going
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  Speaker 1: to one of those other points of the triangle.
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  Speaker 2: Absolutely. And so I would kind of and this is
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  Speaker 2: just Abbey sociology. I wouldn't say this is something that's
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  Speaker 2: collegiate or academically examined, but those are kind of that's
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  Speaker 2: the population center. And then you have South Texas, which
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  Speaker 2: is San Antonio South. And that is how far west.
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  Speaker 1: Do you do South Texas count as when you I
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  Speaker 1: know the San Antonio part, but we always say South
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  Speaker 1: Texas and the heart of it is San Antonio West.
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  Speaker 1: But how far west does South Texas, when people describe
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  Speaker 1: it as South Texas, how far west? Is it the
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  Speaker 1: entire length of the border, the entire length of the
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  Speaker 1: Rio Grande?
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  Speaker 2: I kind of would say there's those three congressional districts
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  Speaker 2: and they're all kind of lined up next to each
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  Speaker 2: other and they're very long. They go north and south,
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  Speaker 2: but they're not very wide. And so that's what I
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  Speaker 2: sort of de facto call South Texas. And so that's basically,
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  Speaker 2: I would say, maybe Corpus Christi to Laredo. And then
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  Speaker 2: West Texas, you've got the Texas 23, which is this
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  Speaker 2: expansive and it's kind of sort of South Texas and
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  Speaker 2: then West Texas.
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  Speaker 1: That's what I was wondering, like the southern part of
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  Speaker 1: West Texas probably behaves a little more like South Texas, right?
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  Speaker 2: I would think so, yeah. And then West Texas in
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  Speaker 2: general is just this expanse of Midland, Odessa, and then
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  Speaker 2: you get up north into the Panhandle. Some people in
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  Speaker 2: the Panhandle don't want to be called South Texas, but
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  Speaker 2: that is the rich Republican vote that Republicans are praying
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  Speaker 2: comes through in big numbers to offset what's happening everywhere else.
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  Speaker 1: So that's the best way to sort of carve things
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  Speaker 1: up here. Now, let's start with my thesis up top.
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  Speaker 1: We've been here so many times. Look, Florida wasn't believed
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  Speaker 1: to be a swing state until Al Gore did what
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  Speaker 1: he did in 2000. Even Bill Clinton winning it in
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  Speaker 1: 96 wasn't made people believe. I don't know. Florida is
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  Speaker 1: quite yet a swing state. Then 2000 happens. Then it
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  Speaker 1: becomes this swingy state for a couple of for a
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  Speaker 1: little over a decade. Virginia in 06. Right. It very
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  Speaker 1: much felt like, yeah, I don't know. I don't know.
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  Speaker 1: And then it happened. And I look at Texas and
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  Speaker 1: I see similarities to Virginia 06 and I see similarities
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  Speaker 1: to Florida 2000, which tells me that's the beginning of
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  Speaker 1: becoming purple. Is that where we're at with Texas or
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  Speaker 1: am I over my skis?
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  Speaker 2: I'm not there yet. What I think is happening in
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  Speaker 2: Texas right now is... Five percent James Tallarico's talent, five
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  Speaker 2: percent the environment and 90 percent Republican self-inflicted wounds.
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  Speaker 1: And this goes and this explains the entire ballots problems, because,
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  Speaker 1: you know, if this were just Ken Paxton, Greg Abbott
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  Speaker 1: wouldn't be in a wouldn't be flip flopping on data
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  Speaker 1: centers and running away from things as fast as he's
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  Speaker 1: running away from. Like this does feel like something bigger
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  Speaker 1: is happening here.
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  Speaker 2: So I think two things are going on with regard
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  Speaker 2: to Abbott. He's been in office for 12 years and
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  Speaker 2: a lot. I mean, this Republicans have been running the
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  Speaker 2: state for 30 years, but Abbott in particular. And so
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  Speaker 2: he's had a lot of policies all around that have,
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  Speaker 2: quite frankly, irritated people. Right. you know, and I mean,
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  Speaker 2: this is such a local issue, but it's something I'm
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  Speaker 2: hearing about. The state has taken over the Fort Worth
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  Speaker 2: Independent School District, and that is causing chaos.
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  Speaker 1: All I hear is schools. Abby, I think this is
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  Speaker 1: absolutely Abbott's biggest problem. And it looks like Kansas, it
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: looks like a Kansas redux all over again, which is,
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  Speaker 1: and what's happening with Rob Sand in Iowa is this,
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  Speaker 1: that tinkering with the public school system, you know, this
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  Speaker 1: whole idea of parent choice, it is really irritated If
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  Speaker 1: you live in ex-urban or rural parts of your state,
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  Speaker 1: this is what happened in Kansas, what happened in Iowa.
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  Speaker 1: I'm frankly seeing it in Florida, too. You know, there's
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  Speaker 1: only so much choice you have in rural America when
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  Speaker 1: it comes to schools.
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  Speaker 2: So these are two separate things. So the voucher. issue
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  Speaker 2: is coming into effect right now for the first time.
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  Speaker 2: And so that's really hitting rural schools hard. One reason
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  Speaker 2: is because a lot of rural areas don't have a
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  Speaker 2: private school to choose from. And there's also a sense
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  Speaker 2: that this is more of a discount for private tuition
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  Speaker 2: rather than covering it. The other thing is I think
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  Speaker 2: it's disruptive to Friday night football. What if your town's
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  Speaker 2: quarterback decides to go to the private school? And this
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  Speaker 2: is the entire organizing principle around small towns in Texas.
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  Speaker 2: And so you have that. But what's happened in Fort Worth,
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  Speaker 2: and I believe it's happened in Houston as well, is
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  Speaker 2: they've literally taken over the schools. And it's this very
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  Speaker 2: they've changed the curriculum and mothers are calling each other.
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  Speaker 2: And I am a student of Robert Caro. And one
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: of the first battles, the. Robert Moses lost in New
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: York City, the master builder who managed to aggravate everyone
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: and they went along with him, was he lost a
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: battle to pave over a part of Central Park that
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: infuriated the Upper West Side mothers. And so since I've
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: read that, I always think mothers are really a political
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  Speaker 2: force you don't want to rile up. And they are
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  Speaker 2: riled up right now. So you have that. But I
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  Speaker 2: think there's just policies everywhere. And I talked to a
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: friend of mine who's a longtime student of New York
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: politics and I asked her, why did Mario Cuomo lose
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  Speaker 2: in 1994? And she said to me, he stayed at
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: the party too long. And so I think that's what's
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  Speaker 2: going on with Abbott specifically.
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  Speaker 1: He famously lost his chance at a fourth.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Term, right?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Yes.
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  Speaker 2: And so but then you spread it out. And this
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  Speaker 2: is where I think it's. So the Beau French thing
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  Speaker 2: did not catch anyone in Texas by surprise.
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  Speaker 1: We were talking about this on Texas primary night, the
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: first of our live streams. We were talking about this.
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  Speaker 1: And in the political world, people have known Beau French
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: is basically a racist who somehow got traction inside the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Republican Party to a point. And it was only a
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: matter of time before he became a national eyesore, I think.
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  Speaker 2: And that was I think that was I've talked to
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  Speaker 2: a lot of folks and it's it's I don't think
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  Speaker 2: Republicans are taking this for granted. And that's a big
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  Speaker 2: difference from 2018. They just try.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: To defeat French. Right. But the party's pretty divided, it
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  Speaker 1: seems like. Oh, this is this.
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  Speaker 2: Is an absolute civil war that's been going on for
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: 15 years. And so when I talk to folks who
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: don't who are not familiar with Texas, they roll their
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: eyes and say, I don't believe the polls and Beto loss.
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  Speaker 2: This is stupid. And I'm just like. Beau French is
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: representative of things that are happening all over the state.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: There are very poor quality candidates all over the place.
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  Speaker 2: And you have Brandon Herrera, who I don't even know
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: how to describe his opposition research book, but it's probably
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: one of the worst I've ever seen in my career.
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  Speaker 2: And he's running in Texas 23. And when Ted Cruz
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: was running in 2018, he had Will Hurd running, who
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: was ex-CIA, golden boy of Texas, running very conventional ads
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: in the San Antonio media market. And now you may
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: have Democrats come in and run this opposition research book,
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: which I can't even repeat a lot of the stuff
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: in it. And so there are weaknesses up and down
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: the ballot. There are weaknesses in the county positions that
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: are very powerful. And so- And so and then you
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: get to the statewide and you have Abbott struggling. And Abbott,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: I'm still skeptical that he could lose. That's just really.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, I don't buy that he could lose, but I'm
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: expecting it to be under five points. I'll be shocked
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: now if it's not.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: And so his perennial job in Texas Republican politics is
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: to raise a ton of money and cover up for
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: everyone else's problems down ballot. That's part of why Cruz
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  Speaker 2: won in 2018. And now suddenly he's got Gina Hinojosa
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: running for a pretty damn good campaign, even if it's underfunded.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: And he's, I just wonder if he's going to end
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: up distracted by her and not able to fulfill his
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: normal role. And so, and then you go one step
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: over to the Lieutenant Governor, Dan Patrick, and he has
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: chosen this moment in time to go after THC in Texas.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: And this has shocked me, but Texas really likes its
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: THC and it's not even potheads. It's like people who
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: like the oils and the polling in this is not
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: It is. And so you just have lots of candidates
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: up and down.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: He's against his own grassroots. I mean, this is a
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: case where MAGA Republicans are pro Delta aid and the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: hemp industry and all of that stuff that is sort of.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, trust me, if you spend any time in Texas,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: these stores are everywhere. The total beverage floor, all of
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the South. It's so funny not to go off on
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  Speaker 1: a side on here, but it's funny to me that
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: you have some states that legalized. sort of marijuana, cannabis
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: as we know it, this thing. And then you had
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the states that didn't legalize that, but just sort of
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: looked the other way on hemp-derived, what's so-called Delta A, THCA.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: And well, the South is hooked on it. I mean,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: they love it. And you see like Ron DeSantis has
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: tried to push back on the industry and he's gotten
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: blowback from some of his own supporters. And I think
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: you're seeing that in Texas too, aren't you?
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, absolutely. And it's just I mean, I was
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: and this has been progressing for years. But to come
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: back to your bigger question, I'm not convinced Texas is
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: necessarily going to this is a huge ideological wave hitting Texas.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: I think that there's a I had a Democratic person
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: in Texas tell me last year, last week, it's death
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: by a thousand cuts. What I think is the concern
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: or should be the concern for Republicans is what if
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: people do get through? So like in 2018, a bunch
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: of state legislators lost their seats to Democrats and they
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: got a foothold in the wealthy part of Houston with
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher and the wealthy part of Dallas, which
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: you know well, represented by Colin Allred. And those are
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: really pivotal places with donor relationships, media markets, and just
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: building out a very decimated state party apparatus. And so
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: that has still, I mean, that is still paying off now,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: even if they were small gains and Beto lost. If, if,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: if Tallarico, I mean, I think of this like D-Day, if,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: if they can just get a little bit of the beach,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: that is huge progress. The Texas Democrats have not had
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: a statewide leader, I guess, since 2002, 98. I can't
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: remember when Bob Bullock left, but like.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, go ahead. 98. No, this should, this should make
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: you happy. Actually, when I was doing these top five
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: all-time campaigns, and I talked about the importance of the
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Tower election and the special election in 1961 in Texas,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: and the importance of, it was just what you described.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I was reading this one account of it, that what
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Tower's victory, it was the first Republican to win in
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: that century. And it was this, all of a sudden
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: it meant The state party got checks nationally that they
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: didn't get in 1960. The state party got. And look,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: did it take another 20 years for them to break
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: through on the state? It did. But it was the
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: beginning of something. And Tower was once he got in,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you couldn't dislodge him. And and it's like I think
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: we saw the same thing with. just the many flips
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: that you just described in the wealthy areas of Houston
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: and Dallas. Once they went, they didn't flip back as easily.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: It's basically now that's new territory that belongs to Team Blue.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: Well, and in that interim, you had a bunch of
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: scandals with Texas Democrats in the early 1970s, which I
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: have family members that voted Republican for decades because of
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: those scandals. And so I think it can be. So, yes.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: And the other comparison is Rick Perry in 1990, I believe,
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: won agriculture commissioner. And that was like a big foothold.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: And so and I'm not even sure. I mean, one,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: it's just. I would say in 2018, very few people
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: could really imagine a Senator Beto O'Rourke. The race just
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: hadn't gotten that far. It just was like, is it
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: in play? Is it not?
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• 22:17
  Speaker 1: let's be honest. When I say developed late, look, people
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: were paying attention to it Because email fundraising was a thing.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: And you certainly had– beating up on Ted Cruz was
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: sort of fashionable by the left. So they saw virtue
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: signaling with Beto. But you didn't see an entire Democratic ticket.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Beto was kind of on his own, wasn't he? Yeah.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Yes. And it was I don't think you have this
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: race without 2018. And there's a lot of criticism of
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: how O'Rourke ran that race. I thought it was the
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: best Senate race I'd ever seen on a Democratic side
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: in Texas. And to come back to the the pot thing,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I always kind of felt like he was the gateway drug.
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: He was the first time a lot of Republicans or
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: moderates voted Democratic. My joke with a source last week was.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: In 2018, it's like Beto got the mainline Protestants, particularly women,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: the Methodists, the Episcopalians. And what is astonishing to me
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: in this race, and it's all anecdotal, but there are
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: some Baptists who are very angry about this race. They're
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: very angry about Ken Paxton and the pen and the cheating.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: The pen. Did the pen, the stealing of the pen...
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Did that break through? Is that one of those things?
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is it's so you're just like, God,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: he really stole somebody's pen. Like what a dirt like
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: what a dirty thing to do. And there was footage
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and it's like, but I am also equally skeptical that
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: that really broke through. Am I did it? Do you
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: think it broke through? Do you think it's like one
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: of those things that, oh, yeah, the guy even took
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: some dude's pen?
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Normal people are talking about it. And what I would say,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: this is kind of one of my theories of Texas
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: right now, because a question I've really struggled to answer
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: when people ask me, why is Ken Paxton so unacceptable
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: in Texas, but Donald Trump is fine? And number one,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I would say Donald Trump's never been that popular in
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Texas compared to other areas. So election night 2016, that
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: was startling because Democrats... Hillary Clinton carried the Colin Allred District,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: which is wealthy Dallas, and the Lizzie Fletcher District. This
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: time they were occupied by Republicans in Houston.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Do you remember the talking point? Hillary lost Texas by
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: less than she lost Iowa.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was where, and to me, you're right.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: A lot of people said, is that about Hillary? Or
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: was that actually about the Republican Party? And I think
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: it was about, I think now we see it was clearly- Texas,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: there were a lot of Texas Republicans that weren't ready
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: to sign up with Trump. There were a lot of
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: old Iowa Democrats that were ready to sign up with Trump.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Well, and so 2024 is really the only year Trump
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: has had a great year in Texas. And I mean,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: I didn't really understand the gravity of the 2024 results
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: until I started seeing the counties from Texas. And I
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: was like, wow. So that's why I think it was
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: kind of astonishing that Republicans were willing to bet so
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: much on Texas and redrawing the map, because I was like,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: this is not a realignment. This is one election.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: But is this just a mislook? It's looking obvious now
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: to me, but this and I never understood the belief
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: in it at the time, which was. Did Texas Republicans
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: really think that their improvement with Latinos was permanent?
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well. I think they were excited, but my impression
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: when this whole map thing came out a year and
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: a half ago or so, Republicans were panicked in Texas.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: They did not want this. They knew the map. They
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: drew this map on purpose in 2021 in preparation for
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: a wave. They did not want to go through 2018 again.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: And so the year that everyone knew a wave of
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: some sort was coming was when they decided to push
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: it to the limits. But coming back to Paxton... I've
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: kind of thought about him in the way that New
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Yorkers think about Trump. They have lived with Trump for
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: 40 years in the tabloids. They've seen the headlines day in,
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: day out. And New York just has not accepted their
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: native son as their guy in politics. And I think
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of that with Paxton. And the
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Penn thing happened in like 2015 or 2016. Like these
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: These the impeachment, all of these things. And on top
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: of that, we come back to DFW. This is where
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: he's from. And he's been on the local news as
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: a state senator and then as the attorney general with this.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: And on top of that, his wife is a state senator.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: She's very charismatic. She's very likable. She's been running ads. So,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: you know. Dallas Fort Worth viewers have a parasocial relationship
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: with her. But so that's kind of what I'm just
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: wondering if, you know, Trump didn't his scandals did not
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: hit other parts of the country like it did New
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: York City with people who are familiar. And I just
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: wonder if there's a little bit of that going on
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: with Paxton.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: So. If let me ask this, because this where I
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: have my doubts when I say, you know, and I mean,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: I'm overselling by saying Texas is purple. I also can't
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: get Paxton to excuse me. I can't get Tallarico to 50,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: but I can't get Paxton to 47. So like it,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: it is. If Tallarico wins, your assumption is it's under 50,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: isn't it?
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: I think so. I mean, I think what I'm, I'm,
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: and I'm not, I'm not as into the numbers as
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: other folks, but I think you have some evangelical people,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: probably women watching all of this play out and they
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: don't like what they're seeing. And, um, You know, one
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: of the things, they always say the scandal in Texas
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: is what's legal. Ethics laws are very loose. And a
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: lot of things happen that people don't like. But Texans
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: never see themselves as states with corruption images. And I
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: just think this, I think Beau French, I think Paxton,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: it's really, to a lot of folks that they've expressed
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: to me privately, a very embarrassing look for the state.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: And Texas has sent powerhouse senators to Washington my entire life.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: And this would be a big change. I mean, you
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: can criticize Ted Cruz, but he is a very smart
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: politician and he's very effective. And so I'm thinking about
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: an evangelical person who, you know, they are studying the
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Ten Commandments. They are studying the Sermon on the Mount,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: just like the other things they learn about. And they're
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: seeing this. And so they have several options if they're upset.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Not everyone's upset. This may be just a small group
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: of people. But you're sitting there and you're thinking, I
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: can do one of several things. I can stay home.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: And so right now, the Paxton objective is to make
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: James Tallarico so unsavory that it gets people off the
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: couch and vote for Paxton. You can go vote. And
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of these people still really like Greg Abbott.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: They can go vote for him and then skip the line.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: But Paxton is at the top of the ticket.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Really, Paxton's at the top, not the governor.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: I believe so. Yeah. And there's no straight ticket anymore.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: or you can vote libertarian, which I know a lot
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: of people are going to do that, who I talk
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: to on a regular basis, or you can vote Tallarico.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: And I have heard people, again, anecdotal, but I've heard
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: people who go to Baptist Church, wealthy, despised Democrats say,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I'm going to vote for Tallarico because Paxton's a crook.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: And so these are people I never even fathomed would
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: have these thoughts.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Does it surprise you that my little anecdotal, if you
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: drive around the neighborhood around SMU, I didn't see a
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: single Paxton sign. I didn't see many political signs. But
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I did see three or four Tallarico signs. Is that
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: what you would have expected, sort of more silence? And
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: if anybody was willing to put a sign out, it
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: would be for Tallarico, not for Paxton, which is, again,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: this is a very Cornyn Bush Republican area, right, when
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: you call it that? that type of Republican. Yeah.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: So there was a movement in Texas Republican politics that
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: signs don't vote, ignore them. They're stupid. They're a waste
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: of money. And I think the Beto O'Rourke campaign, in contrast,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: there were O'Rourke signs everywhere in Texas in 2018. But
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: I think To put a sign in your yard, particularly
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: if you're in a wealthy white neighborhood that tends to
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: be Republican, that is asking for negative feedback from your neighbors,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: your friends when they drive by. So it's a much
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: bigger stand than I think a lot of folks realize.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I've not been in the state in the last– two
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: months or so, but I hear in Fort Worth and
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: the same kinds of neighborhoods that's happening. I'm hearing that
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: in Houston, you know, and so I don't think a
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: lot of people want to put a Paxton sign in
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: their yard because of all of this baggage. So there
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: may be a sleeper vote, but I also just think
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: enthusiasm really, really matters. And even if you're not the
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: person putting the sign in your yard, you're driving around
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: and seeing this. And I think it has a psychological
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: impact on your sense of your surroundings.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, it's interesting. If you believe the Times poll,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: we're speaking on September 15th, and the Times came out
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: with its first sort of post-Labor Day national poll. And
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: what I take away from the Times poll is there
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: is basically Nate Cohn's view of what the electorate is
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: going to be. And his likely voter model indicated an
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: electorate that would have elected Kamala Harris over Donald Trump
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: by four points. And- if that is what we're staring at, right?
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: And so you're basically, essentially it's a D plus six,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: D plus seven type of environment. They had the generic
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: at 8.5. Is that enough for Tallarico in Texas?
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Well, I just think Harris is a really hard metric
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: because that race was so dysfunctional and she really underperformed
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: in Texas.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's interesting and you're right, too. I'm
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: glad you hesitated there because I'll put in I'll fill
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: in a blank here. You know. One of the more
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: interesting aspects of the 24 campaign was how Harris basically
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: was at the Biden levels in all of the seven
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: battlegrounds and was dramatically. Off of Biden's levels. in a
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: lot of blue states in particular, Illinois, New Jersey, New York,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: were truly dramatic where you had, well, whoa, she only
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: won that by what? 7.6 points? And yet none of
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: us are talking about, oh, is Illinois going to flip?
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: It's like the Illinois Senate races not even really being
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: contested by the Republicans. So you're right. I think probably
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: her number, which might mean that if that's what the
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: electorate looks like and it got that version of Kamala head,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe this is an even worse environment for Republicans than
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I'm realizing.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Well, and I think Texas is– well, we always need
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: to be in our own little column and group because
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: we're so big. But I just think the problems in
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Texas are so different from everywhere else. And this is
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: an exhausted state. I think some of it goes– You.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Have a Republican Party that got so powerful it got divided. Right.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Which is, again, what happens when one party control happens.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: You know, politics abhors a vacuum. Right. In Kansas, one
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: party control essentially shaved off a portion of the Republican
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Party that became the foundation of the new Democratic Party
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: in Kansas. Right. Yeah. Is that what we're watching here
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: or are we in a full fledged three party state
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: at the moment?
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: I think we're good. I think there's a really good
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: chance we could be a three party state after the election.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: And that's why I'm so hesitant to project things. I
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: think Texas is going to paint the three parties.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Right. The Democrats are one that's fully united. And then
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: there's this thing in the middle. And then there's the
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Paxton MAGA.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, how would you give me your give me
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: what are the two Republican parties here that you've created?
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I would break it. And this is maybe not helpful
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: to a national audience. I would break it down with
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: the Paxton impeachment, who voted for Paxton to be thrown
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: out of office and who didn't. And that is, and
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: that's very state legislative centric, but, um.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: You know, Was there a geographic alignment there? Was it
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: rural versus exurban? Was it suburban rural?
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: I think it's more rural versus, um, city college educated. And, um,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: So John Cornyn is obviously the representative of the more
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: centrist Republican Party, even though I don't think most folks
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: would say it's that centrist. But these are OK. Here's
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: how I would say. I think there's a generation of consultants, operatives,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: politicians who grew up as Bush was on the ascent.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: And these are folks who. got great joy in their
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: life defeating Democrats and they know how to run general
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: elections with brutal efficiency. And then you have this new
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: generation coming up, which take general elections for granted. And
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: so all that matters is the primary and that is
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: their muscle memory. And so what I am curious over
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: the next few weeks is Ken Paxton and these other
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: folks run a general election campaign with that kind of efficacy.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: And You know, when you see Karl Rove say he's
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: going to vote for Tallarico, that's a stunner. But that
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: is literally all of his disciples.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Did he say Tallarico, too? I know he said he's
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: not going to vote for him.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: No, no, no.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: Excuse me. Excuse me. Sorry. Yeah. Sorry. No, he's going
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: to vote against French.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Sorry.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: That felt kind of like an easy call. But it's interesting.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: He's an important permission slip, isn't he, for some Republicans?
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: Yes. And so I'm sorry for that error. But he's
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: got disciples who've been working in Texas politics who've been
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: saying the same thing to me. for months. And, and
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: so I guess that's where I would really see the divide.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: And when you see Cornyn coming out like this, yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: he's now a lame duck Senator and yeah, he's lost
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: and he's speaking his mind, but there are really, really
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: wealthy people who have been behind Cornyn and Cornyn never
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: ran his Senate races to just win the Senate race.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: He ran down ballot. He would get on people to
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: get their races together. And he was a, an organizational
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: center of his elections. And he's got these really wealthy
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: billionaires behind him and bundlers and people like that. And
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: they don't like Paxton. They've never liked Paxton. And this
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: is another anecdotal thing, but they have wives who don't
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: like Paxton.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: And so- So then explain this to me. And I
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: have a very cynical view of Donald Trump. This won't
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: surprise people. Donald Trump is usually- you know, available to
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the highest bidder. So if Cornyn had all the money people,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: how did those money people not persuade Trump to get
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: off this Paxton nonsense? Is it all due to that
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Paxton did the one thing Trump needed somebody to do
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: to give him legitimacy on his stolen election claims? Does
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: it all go back to that ridiculous suit that Paxton
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: filed as AG? Are we seeing Donald Trump express loyalty?
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Because you would think if all of the money people
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: were Cornyn people, I'm sorry. I mean, Trump just, you know,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: the scent of money usually always brings him to your side.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: How did that not work here?
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not super well sourced in that specific part of
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: the world, but my interpretation all this spring when it
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: was there was going to be a Cornyn endorsement, it
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: never came down. This was just a chaos gremlin situation
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: where he I just think it was kind of fun
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: to play in it. And I think. What I've seen
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: in national Republicans, specifically in Trump world, is a sense
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: that Texas, because they're mistaking the size of Texas for
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: and its Republican nature for deep Republican. And it's they
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: have treated Texas's job in elections for Republicans is to
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: keep things calm in the state when everything they can
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: and then send hundreds of millions of millions of dollars
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: out of the state. And, you know. It's the same
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: thing with the congressional map. Just go get us five
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: seats out of Texas. And I mean, I was like,
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: there's not five seats to give. And most of the
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: sources on the ground said that. So I feel like
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Texas is this like political bank that they've overdrawn on
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: and that they've had a freedom to do things that
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: may not be politically strategic. And I mean, it's extended
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: into the statewide. I think it's a level of arrogance
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: that they can do whatever they want in Texas. And
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: here we are.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Well, look, coming close doesn't mean a state is turned, right?
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: You can have close calls. Bob Vole had his closest
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: call in a Senate race right after Watergate, and then
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: it never got close ever again. So it was not
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: indicative that somehow Kansas was changing. Besides Tallarico and the
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: gentleman running against Beau French, how many Democratic statewide victories,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: and we have to remind people, Texas is one of
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: those places that elects a lot of things statewide. They
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: have quite a few, more than a dozen. And the
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: irony is, what is it? I believe, is it 1994,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: the last time a Democrat won anything statewide? Gary Morrow,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: land commissioner, right?
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: I believe it was 94. Yeah.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So- How many Democratic victories would it take for
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: you to say, oh, Texas is purple now? I assume
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: more than just Tallarico.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Yes. I mean, and so the Democratic mindset around Tallarico
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: is they got to win. Beto came close.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: They really do. Because what does losing do? Let's talk
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: about that. What is the psychological blow of not winning
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: under these circumstances, the best possible circumstances you could possibly
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: have in this scenario?
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: There is a sobriety and cold-bloodedness in the Texas Democratic
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: world that I've never seen. And just a deadly serious
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: attitude of cutting the 2.7 margin from 2018 down is
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: not enough. And it's because they are struggling so hard
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: to convince national Democrats to send money to the state.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: And they feel like they will lose that argument if
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: Tallarico doesn't win. Right. So Beau French has long been
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: the one, when I quiz people on both sides, which
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: statewide gets through, say Tallarico wins, who else gets through?
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: And Beau French is all, John Rosenthal, French's opponent, is
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: always the one they point to. I'm just not there
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: on seeing more of that. But here's the metric I
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: think would be interesting, because I'm just hesitant to weigh
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: in on the statewides, but If this is a cat
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: five massive storm coming nationally, I think it's the congressional
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: map that's going to be interesting because it was engineered
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: specifically for Republican performance. And so Republicans took out five seats.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: One of those is safe Republican. There's no way a
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Democrat's going to win. Two of those were in South Texas.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Those were going to be the most competitive, winnable ones.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: And then there were two seats that were going to
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: be really, really big reach districts. The two South Texas
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: ones were. basically seem OK at this moment in time
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: on top. And then you've got those two reach districts,
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: which there's getting to be a lot of chatter in
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: those districts, too. And then on top of that, you
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: have in South Texas what was supposed to be a
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: safe seat. Monica de la Cruz is the congresswoman there.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: And there's a candidate named Bobby Polito, who is like
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: the Bruce Springsteen of South Texas.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: No, I've been hearing a lot. I mean, Bobby's going
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: to likely be on this podcast pretty soon. I've heard
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: a lot about him.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: And his name ID is apparently off the charts for
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: a challenger. That seat was never even supposed to be
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: in play. So you got those five seats. It's now
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: a net zero after the Republican redraw. That is not
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: necessarily likely. But to me, maybe it's because you taught
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: me to care about House races. That's the metric I'm
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: more interested in than the statewide. If we see people
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: beyond Tallarico and French seats, I mean, Rosenthal win. I
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: don't even know that universe. I really don't even know
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: the universe of any Democrat winning.
• 42:48
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• 44:19
  Speaker 1: of 2026. I will just walk you through my logic
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: and how I've become, I've gone from skeptic on Tallarico
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: to a believer now, to the point where I'm more
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: skeptical about Iowa flipping to the Democrats than I am Texas.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: And the thing that I didn't fully appreciate was this
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: is a slow erosion, okay? you know, we talk about
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Beto in 2018, but no Republicans seem to get past 55%
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: on the statewide ballot. Like it was, you know, it
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: wasn't as if Beto was an outlier and everybody else,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Cruz hung on and everybody else, you know,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: won in a landslide. That is not what happened. It
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: was sort of It was clear that, you know, Beto
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: did better than every other Democrat. But everybody, the floor,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the Democratic floor went up in 2018. And then in 2022,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: it didn't go down. Like, it's still like here, they
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: didn't have nearly the attention, near the opportunity. And what
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Beto built in 18 stuck. So I'm sitting here and
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: applying the rules of politics I've I've sort of acquired
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: and sort of prognosticate by over the years. And you
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: look and you're like, oh, Greg Abbott's winning number goes
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: down every cycle. The Democratic floor continues to slowly go up. Boy,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: you know, at some point, this isn't, you know, this
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: isn't some radical, a dark Idaho suddenly flips overnight. It
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: is like the classic hockey stick moment. You're sort of
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: going on and then all of a sudden there's going
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: to be a tipping point. Is it this election? I
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: don't know. But it certainly looks like Abbott isn't going
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: to get better than 53. The scandal penalty that is,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I believe that Mark Murray and I have well documented
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: this over the 21st century. It is a, it is
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: clearly somewhere between four and eight points, depending on the area,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: but minimum four. Well, if Abbott's at 53, you throw
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: in the libertarian candidate, you throw in that. And I
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: start to like, you know, Tallarico's 48 is going to
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: be a winning number. And that to me was always
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: the threat. That was where I struggled. Can he get to,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: you know, versus an Iowa that has never had libertarians
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: get more than 1%. And is suddenly asking, you know,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: and there isn't a scandal plagued candidate that the Democrats
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: get to run against. It's somebody actually that's run in
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: swing districts and has been sort of preparing for a
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: statewide run for six years. So it does feel as
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: if this has been a slow build and that it's,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: you know, they're certainly on the threshold here, aren't they?
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: So I think Some of the smartest political analysis I've
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: heard in the last 10 years was from former state
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: Senator Wendy Davis. And so she ran in 2014 and
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: lost by 20 points. And it was really the low
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: point of Texas Democratic politics.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: She raised a ton of money, right? She was able
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: to let national money. She did the big reproductive rights
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: speech that went viral from the state legislative. Sort of,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say the first viral person, but
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: one of the earlier viral candidates where a moment produced
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: a candidate.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: So- When everyone's scratching their head in 2017, 2018, trying
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: to figure out if this Beto thing was real, what
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: she pointed out was, and I think the credit to
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: this movement goes to Donald Trump. She didn't say that,
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: but I am. She said, when I was running, I
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: didn't have anybody helping me underneath the ballot. There just
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: weren't state-led congressional candidates. She was on her own. I mean,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: she had a good lieutenant governor candidate with her, but
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: it was just there. It was a bad year. Nobody
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: was running after 2016 with that Hillary flip of those districts.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: There was just this organic sense of people just getting
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: out and running and reach seats and running. They were
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: normal people. These were not people who had been, you know,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: wanting to run for office their whole lives. And Congresswoman
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Lizzie Fletcher is one of them. She was a trial
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: attorney and she just decided to run. And so that
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: I think and I mean, Beto O'Rourke has said it, too.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: That helped him a lot. So I think it's the
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: reverse coattails. Um, and then that kind of died off.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: And then I think once Trump won again, that sense
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: is back. I mean, there, the reason there's all these
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: good candidates running, um, is because they're mad and they're
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: also running at the state ledge level. Um, the, the
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: big question right now in Texas politics is, um, not
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: as the Senate in play, but is the state house
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: of representatives in play. And I've heard of lobbying firms
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: thinking about hiring Democratic staffers because they may need to
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: prepare for at least a more empowered Democratic party in Austin.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: And so I think so much of this is on
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the ground. And while I think that the Senate Democratic
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: model of clearing the field for candidates has, I think
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: it's actually worked very well for Democrats in the last
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: 15 years. They've had seats they never should have represented,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: like North Dakota. I am skeptical that works in Texas.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: And Tallarico is very organic, but he has been going
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: to the rubber chicken dinners for years in the state.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: And I just think that that primary against Jasmine Crockett
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: was very brutal and very rough, and there are still
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: divisions there. But the fact that Tallarico had to campaign
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: in February and get his name ID out, and he
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: had to be campaigning- The primary.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: It's like Obama-Clinton. The primary put North Carolina and Indiana
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: in play, two states that the Obama campaign in 08
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: never would have put in play, but the long primary
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: forced organizing early and early organizing put them in a
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: position to actually do it. And so what you're saying
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: is This is a case where the primary forced some
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: organization that we had not seen a Democratic statewide candidate
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: do in a long time.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: Correct. And so one of the biggest traps I've seen
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: politicians in both parties make is like, oh, hey, I'm
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: a big deal in Dallas or I'm a big deal
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: in Houston. I'm going to run statewide. And it is
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: a complete lack of awareness that there are.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: So many other half the Miami politicians over the years
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: who tried the same thing. Yeah. Yeah. When you're in
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: a big state or try L.A. politicians who have never
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: gone anywhere statewide.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: So they have no idea how unwell known they are
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: outside of their little media market. And so I think
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of that. And I think Tallarico is
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: a pretty good party leader. I mean, I hear some
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: complaints about things and things slip through the cracks and stuff.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: But well, and I just want to back up. So
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: July of last year, I happened to be in the state.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: I was actually picking up my nephews at summer camp.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: And that's when the flood hit. And- Something emotionally broke
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: in the state because there were little girls who died
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: who were from every media market. It was on the
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: news for months. And I mean, the state leadership reacted
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: in some ways, but it wasn't this was not like
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: a Rudy Giuliani 9-11 moment.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: No, it felt they felt it felt very similar to
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: what happened in the in the shooting in rural in
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: rural Texas when the when when the cops didn't do
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: the job, you know, the same thing. It was sort
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: of the same– it felt like government wasn't being responsive here.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Well, and even before that, you had the winter storm.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, and that was traumatic in its own way
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: for almost everyone in the state. And so– but back
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: in July– and then the Republicans roll out their congressional map.
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: And the state of the Texas Democratic world was just
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: more about, like, just– They'd all but given up. And
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: I think that map riled up Democrats. I think that
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: the congressional delegation bonded a lot in that. And they
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: were much more organized than I've ever seen them. And
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: then you had the state legislators fleeing. And I think
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: there's a bonding there. And Tallarico has been very much
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: on the scene in Austin. He and Gina Hinojosa. Gina
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Hinojosa has been around for a long time. And so
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: they have relationships all over the state that I think
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: is unique. And it's because they've been pushed in a corner.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Um, you, uh, earlier in this podcast, I'm going
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: to try to land this plane with, uh, with a
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: topic that is near and dear to both of our hearts. Um, you,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: you earlier in this podcast said, you know, Ted Cruz is,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: you know, is a pretty powerful Senator. And I, I
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with that. And he, but why did he
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: think it was a good idea to go on game day?
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just can't like, I find the entire,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: and I went off on a rant on this on
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: my previous podcast. I think the entire campaign on the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Protect College Sports Act, look, I've got my own issues
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: with the specifics of it. But regardless, let's say you
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: were trying to, I don't understand who they're trying to
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: persuade because they're not talking to the people that they
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: need to be talking to. And they are using the
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: wrong people to try to get people behind the spell,
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: whether it's Saban, Dion, or Ted Cruz here. I don't
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: get it. But I was surprised that somebody didn't stop
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz. You know, maybe a live interview in front
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: of an Austin crowd is probably not the best look
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: for you, Senator. Who thought that was a good idea?
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: But I think that game is something we're going to
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: look back on. I so. I think when Cruz's father
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: went to UT and, you know, if your parent went there,
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: you're still kind of in the tribe, even if you go.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: To the Ivy. Sure. I hear you.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: So that game. So one of the happiest nights of
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: my life is January 4th, 2006, which was the legendary
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: Rose Bowl game. And for my father, it was the
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: 1969 national championship. And all my dad wanted for me
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: was to have a national championship like that.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: That game, although it was not a bowl game, I
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: think is going to go into the legend of that tier.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: And as a UT alum, and I've talked to a
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: lot of my friends- We'll see.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: How you do in the playoff, but okay. It was
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: just a great- I mean, yeah, it was a good game.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: You just haven't faced one of the top teams in
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: the country yet.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: But that's- Oh, yeah. But the way, it was a
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: fairytale game.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Sure. Look, well, and I would argue that Arch and
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Sark needed this badly, right? Whatever, fair or unfair, there
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: was a group of people ready to pounce had they
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: come up short again. And again, it would have been
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: irrational in some cases, okay? But they were ready to pounce.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: And I would argue, this is why I think it's
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: one of those games where, boy, did that crew in
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Texas needed a hell of a lot more than Ohio
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: State did.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: Well, but- What fascinated me was the center of the
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: politics of it. So I am going to the game.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: I watched it in a bar in New York City.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: It wasn't even a UT bar, and it was filled
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: with UT people.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Now, you people are everywhere.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: I know. You can't escape us. And on the way there,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: I see Amy Acton, the gubernatorial Democratic candidate in Ohio,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: trolling Vivek Ramaswamy for throwing up the horns.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz is there. He's he's there in his role
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: as the Senate commerce chairman trying to push the college stuff.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: And then there was just so much political activity around
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: this game.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the French viral clip, which will
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: it feels like it like might have ended his candidacy
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: if he loses. We'll look back at that moment and
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: say maybe if he had kept his mouth shut, he
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: might have hidden and snuck in.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: Well, and so the. I think most people in Texas
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: were sort of pricing in, in the next few weeks,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: a Beau French thing to happen. But for it to
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: happen on that game that the entire country was watching,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: and this was UT's moment to shine. And, you know,
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Matthew McConaughey's there, Glenn Powell's there.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: And then to single out students like that in front
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: of the entire country.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: And ruin the vibe of this wonderful game. I mean,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: the state is exploding. And, you know, there was I
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: think the best political commentary I've seen is Manny must
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: have stepped into it. This was on Twitter. If even
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: the Aggies are defending UT, which is Texas A & M.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: And I've got Aggie friends who are as irate as
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: anyone else. And the idea of South Asians attending the
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: folks of South Asian descent attending the University of Texas
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: novel is. I have some of my closest friends from
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: UT are there. They could have been that image.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: It's North Texas. I'm sorry. Yes, this is, this is,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: and that's why I say it's Northern Virginia. This is,
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: this is Northern Virginia and all this. And you know,
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: it's funny. You want to talk about another Oh six comparison,
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: you know, when George Allen used that racist word to
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: describe the Southeast Asian, the young man that was, um,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: working for the Democrats to trail. And he said that
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: he turned a constituency, by the way, that was Republican
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: leaning at the time. In fact, he had Alan had
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: raised more money from Indian American business leaders in northern
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: Virginia until that happened. And then Webb got all of
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: these donors. And many of these people became huge Obama donors.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: Like it was a turning point that accelerated the financial
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: shift in Northern Virginia from Republican to Democrat. And I
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: look at what's happening and I'm like, this attack on
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Southeast Asians in Texas feels like a very similar moment
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: to me.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: I think it's bigger than that because, I mean, you've
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: got When I went to University of Texas, I mean,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: it is beaten in your head at UT that you
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: are loyal to your friends, your alumni, you know, the
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: people you went to school with, you are going to
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: know the rest of your life. And I was at
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: UT during the Iraq War. It was a very political time. But, like,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: politics just seemed to always be secondary to the rooting
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: for the football team. And I think, I mean, Laura
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Ingram was tweeting some things about how Tallarico couldn't possibly
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: be a football fan. And it's just all of these outsiders.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: who didn't go to UT are telling UT what they are.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: That is the least effective way to appeal to a Texan.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: And they're messing with, you know, part of the tribe.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: And I think that a lot of this I mean,
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: as much as proud as we are of our degrees,
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of me, excuse me, a football.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of anger about what this is doing
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: to the degrees and how it reflects on the university.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: And I think university students are coming out looking amazing.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: They're carrying themselves with grace and dignity. But it's just
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: one of those you don't you don't get to mess
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: with our family. And so and I think it's there's
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of people in the U.T. donor class who
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I think are very disturbed with what they see. And
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: they normally are very prolific donors to Republicans.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, look, I don't know that this is the case,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: but I will just say that UT's loss has been
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: SMU's gain. I don't know that Hartzell decided to leave
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Texas because he was exhausted from all the politics and
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: everything that being at that institution and being the president
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: of that institution, which might be one of the hardest
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: jobs in the country these days. I think being a
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: university president in a public institution, in a state capital
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: where politics of education are front and center, is hard.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: An opportunity to go work at a private university probably
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: felt like relief there. Again, I don't want to say
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: I'm speaking for him because I'm not speaking for him,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: but that's not lost on me either. I get the
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: sense that the UT community is tired of the politics
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: of UT.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. Like when I was in college, my one political
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: dream was to be on the board of regents. And
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: now I'm like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: That sounds like the worst job of the world. Yeah.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: And do you really want to do that?
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: But I mean, it's the state legislatures on their back.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: And I mean, also just one more aside, Dan Patrick
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: put out a web video where it was AI and
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: it was invoking Democratic candidates and then University, insignia, and
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: it was UT, A & M, and Tech. And I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: just don't think people in Texas want to politicize their university.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: This is part of their identity. It's often their family identity.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: And it just sucks all the fun out of it.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Well, are you going to be okay when you guys
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: realize that you can't quite measure up to Miami again?
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, is that going to be all right? You're
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: going to handle that all right?
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: As wonderful as the Rose Bowl in 2006 was, the
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: 1991 Cotton Bowl, I was eight years old. It's just
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: a horrible, horrible memory of my life.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Oh, I remember every second of it, the 1991 Cotton Bowl.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: And that was a year that Miami didn't win the
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: title because of a dumb loss early in the season.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: But it was clear Miami was the best team in
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the country. That's that stupid split title year between Georgia
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Tech and Colorado, who both would have been touchdown underdogs
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: against that Miami team. But that's neither here or there.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Miami got their vengeance out on Texas that day.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: You and former Congresswoman Eliana Ross-Leighton have softened my heart
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: on the U. So there you go.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Well, I will say this. We are not that, you know,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: what is interesting about this team is this team keeps
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: its mouth shut. They really, you know, the unlike what
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: we're seeing at other schools, the steep keeps its mouth shut,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: which I find I'm heartened by. So and I think
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: they really in the same way that you talked about
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: your dad, like wanting you to see, you know, what
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: it was once like, you know, and it's like, that's
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: the way I feel. I want my daughter, you know,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: she got a taste of it last year. Like, this
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: is what I kept telling my son. No, no, no, no, no.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: I got to see Miami when they were Alabama. I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: want you to be like, there was a time it
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: was Alabama. Then it was Miami. Then it was back
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: to being Alabama. Like this is kind of how college
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: football worked, but we got a brief taste of it.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: I want, I want them to understand because it explains
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: my irrational support for that. You know, you can't ever,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: you don't ever, you don't ever let it go, but I,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: what a look. It was a great, it was a,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: it was a great game. The only thing I wonder,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: in this new college football era, it wasn't a must
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: win for either team. And I wonder how that changed
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter strategy. I think, like I said, emotionally,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: it was a must win for various, for a variety
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: of reasons, just for the narrative crap. And like, you know,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: nobody wants to hear the outside noise. That stuff's rat poison.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: You know, Arch didn't need another week of this, right?
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, I don't know if who's
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: had a Who had higher expectations going into sports? LeBron
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: James being on the cover of Sports Illustrated at 14
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: or Arch Manning just simply being born Arch Manning, right? Like,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: you know, I feel for the guy, right? I know
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: some of this, you know, comes with the territory. So,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: but there's a part of me that thought, did Ohio,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: if you knew you had to win that game, would
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: it have been different? Would your game plan have been different?
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what the playoff has done.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: mindset of these coaches.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: And it's the older I get, the more when those
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: young men come out of the tunnel, I just feel
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: almost maternal about them. They're 18 years old and there's
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: so much pressure on them.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: And everybody's obsessed.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: And the money's added the pressure, right? Like, yes, it's good.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: They're getting paid, but they're still 18 year old kids
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: or 20 year old kids or in the case of
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: Indiana's football team, 31-year-old kids. And, you know, sorry, I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: had to get that in there, right? But no, I
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: take your point. And I think that, anyway, I go back. Look,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: I want to see college football have some rules and regulations.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think Ted Cruz is the right spokesperson for it,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: even if his staff is doing some good work behind
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: the scenes. But I'm not convinced they've got a good bill.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: I think they've got a bill that the courts are
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: going to absolutely throw out because labor was not at
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: the table, period. And I think that's the huge problem
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: with this bill.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Oh, man. Well, I'm not as in the weeds on it,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: but I just– Sometimes it's just the stuff takes the
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: fun out of it.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: It does. I know.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: But, you know, it was a great game and it's
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: nice to be reminded of how great college football is.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Look, I will confess. You guys have a tough schedule
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: this year.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, we're ready for it. Arch has proven
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: he's ready for it.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Just don't blow it against Oklahoma. To me, I bought in.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry I bought in. I sold my stock. Now
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: I want you to prove to me why I sold
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: my Oklahoma stock. So just bury them at the Red
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: River rivalry, will you?
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: We could lose every game in a season and still
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: beat Oklahoma, and I'm happy. So that's where I am
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: on the Oklahoma thing.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Does it matter more than the Aggies beating the Aggies now?
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: Yes, because they beat us so much in the aughts.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: That was just a– I'm one of– I think my
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: class and the class above me were the only ones
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: that lost every single game to OU.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, I get it. I have to say the most
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: unique experience I had going to College Station when I
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: went for the Miami-Texas A & M playoff game was
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: how obsessed the fans were about Texas still. Like it didn't–
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: like everything was about Horns Down. Everything– the fight song
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: is about UT. And I'm like– it made me wonder–
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: You guys are more concerned about UT than you are
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: about winning a national title. You're never going to win
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: a national title. In some ways, they're so consumed about
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: their inferiority complex with Austin that I wonder if it
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: gets in the way of everything else.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: They they were more prominent as rivals in the 90s
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: when they were beating us then. And I will I
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: you know, my mom's always trained me. A & M
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: is a great university and we need to respect them.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: And but I do I feel for them in the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: sense that I'm self-aware enough that I think we are
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: probably the most obnoxious rival. And A & M is
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: a huge rival to us. But I can't imagine dealing with.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: No, it's more pain. It's more painful when your chief
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: rival doesn't think you're their chief rival. Like that sucks.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: That is even a bigger insult. Miami has a lot
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: of those rivals, unfortunately.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: We care about them on Thanksgiving. We worry about them
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: a lot.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Well, they were good fans. They were really nice hosts.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: I am not surprised to hear that.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: I look forward to going to another game in College Station,
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: and I don't want to go in September when it's
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: 175 degrees on the field, like it was apparently over
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: the weekend. Abby, this little Politics 101 of Texas, I
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: learned a lot. And I hope, I think my listeners
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: did too.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: Well, thank you for having me.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: All right, my friend. Enjoy the rest of this campaign season.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: More importantly, enjoy this football season. Could be a special one.