Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/6/26: Sam Altman Says Bad Things Coming From AI, Wemby Blasts Sports Gambling Partnership

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10/6/26: Sam Altman Says Bad Things Coming From AI, Wemby Blasts Sports Gambling Partnership · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
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  Speaker 1: can up our game for this critical election.
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  Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Well, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sat for an interview with
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: Politico yesterday, and you have to listen to what he
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: said about how he sees the way our government, our
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: society should accept everything coming out of his private company
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: and industry, D1.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We have always been a big believer that this technology
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: has to be democratized and put in people's hands. I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: think one of the biggest differences between us and some
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: of the stricter, let's say, AI safety people is we
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: believe that the world should accept some bad things happening
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: for the benefits of this technology and people having the agency.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So like, you know, I, I disagree, but I understand
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: the perspective of people who are like this technology is
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: going to get so powerful and it's so dangerous that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: a single lab in San Francisco should have it and
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: make sure nothing bad happens and kind of figure out
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: how to do a.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: Lot of the benefits.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I think that is a completely unacceptable trade-off from a
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: perspective of Liberty and human agency and people self-determining the future.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: but I understand where it comes from. And I do
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: think the lighter touch regulatory stance that we advocate for
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: comes with an accepting of the fact that some bad
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: things are going to happen as society figures out the resilience.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't take a trade of saying like, we'll
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: make sure there's no major hacks. There's no kind of
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: like misuse of this technology. There's zero scams. There's zero,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: all the other bad things that will happen because I
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: think people will do tremendously orders of magnitude more good
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: stuff than bad stuff.
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: But when it comes.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: To the potential of like a serious loss of control
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: to AI, and this is not a today worry, but
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: it may not be in the distant future. This is
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: where I would say to the accelerationists, like, let's be
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a little thoughtful about lurching into this future. So I
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: would say, except bounded risks, except risks that we understand
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: in exchange for the benefits and, liberty agency, all those
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: things I was just talking about, but don't accept the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: really catastrophic risk.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: So, Sagar, what Sam Altman's saying there is absolutely defensible
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: in theory.
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: We would say this about cars. We would accept a trade-off.
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: You and I think it's about guns, right? Yeah, exactly.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: But his cold.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Insistence on being the man to make this cost-benefit analysis
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: for all of society... as this utilitarian trade-off, while he's
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: also speaking in the same breath about democratizing the technology,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: I think is what sets people off because it is
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: not democratic when you have CEOs of massively powerful companies
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: being the ones to outline the contours of what that
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: cost-benefit analysis looks like, right? Capturing the government, putting so
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: much weight, they're putting money into the elections now, they've
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: done it before, but that's not, there's nothing democratized about
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: the technology when the technology is being driven top-down by
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: CEOs like Sam Altman, who are determining what the cost-benefit
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: analysis is going to look like, what the costs should be,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: and what the benefits they think will be.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no standards, no regulation, no proven benefit. Like, and
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: that's why I've been having this huge tussle online. Taylor Laurent, who,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: by the way, I haven't said her name, I think,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: in four years here on the show. I don't think
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: about her basically at all. But she got very upset
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: yesterday because I put out this take. We can talk
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: about it now because I think this gets to this question.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I said, nobody actually needs a personal AI assistant. The
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: average screen time in the U.S. is seven hours a day.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: People have plenty of free time. There is no evidence
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: that freeing up more will lead to anything but more
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: TikToks growing.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: Bro, you got roasted.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Daily life needs more offline friction. She was furious about this,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: basically saying, I'm calling people lazy.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: No, I'm not.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: What I'm actually making the point is kind of what
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: you were saying, is that you are captive to an
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: algorithmic dopamine addiction on your phone.
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: The vast majority of people are addicted to slop.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: The average American watches 53 minutes of short form video
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: per day. Gen Z is spending 16 hours a day
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: either on their phone or watching television. The vast majority
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: of screen time in the United States is non-work related.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Three to five hours of leisure screen time per day,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: only two and a half hours of that being television.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: My only point here is that we have come up
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: with different metrics around benefit and productivity. And this is
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: why I want to separate it out, is that we
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: talk a lot about these models and breakthroughs.
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: I think all of that is true.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: I think that if you are a Silicon Valley rich
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: guy who you want this world of a personal agent who's,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, one guy this morning is booking about a
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: problem that he had with his agent booking him a
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: black lane.
• 5:03
  Speaker 5: He thinks that people don't know what that is. I
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: know what that is.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: That's one of those black car services. But I only
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: know it because that's what those TV networks send to
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: come and get you.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: Whenever you do it, just so you know.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: Not that you've done that.
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: Never paid for it myself.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: My point is just that This guy's posting about booking
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: a black car. And I'm like, is that an experience
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: that most of us need? Is that an experience most
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: people have or want? Some other guy goes, the agent
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: can check in a flight for you.
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: I'm sorry. I fly a ton. Or I used to
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: before I had a kid. I fly a ton.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Checking in for a flight takes about five seconds. You
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: just go in the app and you go, check in.
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: That's about it. Even checking a bag, it's not that bad.
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: I mean, which you shouldn't. But check it out. It's
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: not hard. It's not difficult.
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  Speaker 2: And then another person goes, well, my agent deleted 40,000 emails.
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: I go, okay.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, I get that it's mentally kind of
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: annoying to have all this.
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  Speaker 5: I have 88,412 emails.
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  Speaker 4: I have inbox zero. It's not that hard. You don't
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: need a little robot to do.
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  Speaker 3: It for you.
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  Speaker 2: But it's like, that's not productivity in a certain way. Like,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: it is in a sense, but it's not actually... massively
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: enriching your life, right? So I kind of think about
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: it in the way where When you ease friction, like
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: what we did with email, we made it easier than
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: ever before to contact each other.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: And we said, wow, this is gonna unlock all this productivity.
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: I said, wow, what a beautiful technology.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: And so what happens then is it connects everybody forever
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: and you end up working more than ever before.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: 100%.
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: It didn't make you more productive.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Well, I guess it made you more productive for the
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: S & P 500 economically.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Yes.
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  Speaker 5: It actually destroyed your life.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: Yes. And ask anybody who works in Fortune 500, If
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: you're on Slack, oh my god, these.
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: People are glued to the phone.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: They're slaves, basically, at their bosses' beck and calls to
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: be able to be on call. If you're compensated well
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: enough for that, that's a trade you should make. But
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: that's not really how it's working.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: And everyone's mining your Slack and email data. So you're
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: just becoming more productive, like you said, of the SMP.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: So you're more valuable to the tech companies that are
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: taking your data because you're spending more time on social
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: media and email.
• 7:09
  Speaker 6: Bingo.
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  Speaker 2: And so there's just like, all I look at is
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: that we become captive to these Sam Altmans. And you
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: actually are giving up like a ton of your personal
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: agency and freedom.
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  Speaker 5: By allowing it.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, even in email, like one of the things
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: that they're trying to push hard is the connection of
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: your email, which it sounds fine. But what you've also
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: seen is that with open AI is that they use
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: then that email, that data, they're going to train their model.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: They're trying to mimic human communication allegedly to help you,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: but in some cases, potentially to replace you. And that's
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: what a new MIT economist is warning about in a
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: new interview with 60 Minutes.
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: Let's take a listen.
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  Speaker 1: Literally all of the top 20 economists in America, they
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: would say the exact same thing, which is that There's
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: going to be more jobs in 10 years than there
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: are today.
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: You're a top economist in America.
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  Speaker 4: What say you?
• 7:58
  Speaker 8: No.
• 7:59
  Speaker 6: No, not on our current trajectory. I don't saw that
• 8:01
  Speaker 6: could happen. What we are living through with AI is unprecedented.
• 8:07
  Speaker 6: The first phase of the Industrial Revolution lasted for 80 years. Today,
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: it's taking place in one or two years, and it's
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: taking place across many sectors at the same time.
• 8:16
  Speaker 7: Daron Acemoglu is a Nobel Prize-winning professor at MIT who
• 8:20
  Speaker 7: studies technology's impact on labor. We were told by a lawyer,
• 8:24
  Speaker 7: also a music producer, there are some things that humans
• 8:27
  Speaker 7: are so fundamental, humans do them, robots can't.
• 8:31
  Speaker 8: Do you buy that?
• 8:32
  Speaker 6: Today, absolutely, 100%. You said today? Today. In 15 years' time,
• 8:37
  Speaker 6: what it's going to be capable of doing, I don't know.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: But there's going to be.
• 8:40
  Speaker 7: This huge sector of work, training, these AI models. So
• 8:44
  Speaker 7: if you're a law student, you have a hard time
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: finding a job, you can still use your expertise.
• 8:50
  Speaker 6: Here is one thing I'm not uncertain about. What you
• 8:52
  Speaker 6: just described is BS. Why do you say that? Because
• 8:57
  Speaker 6: the number of people they're employing in these positions is
• 9:02
  Speaker 6: small relative to the number of people who will be replaced.
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: I mean, that's the whole point of automation.
• 9:08
  Speaker 7: Asimoglu says we could see unemployment triple in the next decade.
• 9:12
  Speaker 7: if we do nothing and continue on our current course.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Unemployment literally triple. I think that's an important point. Actually,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: you're starting to see some of this pop up in
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: New York City. Put D4 up here on the screen.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: This was from Mark Levine. He points out AI already
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: may be impacting the job market in New York City,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: specifically a lot of these creative industries and in customer support.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: So you can look here at the change in New
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: York City entry-level job posting. So in design, media, and writing,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: it is down by 40%. Customer client support, down by 35%.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Clerical administrative, 30%. Business management operations, 27%. Finance, 23%. Social
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: analysis planning, 12%.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Sales, 10%. Actually makes sense.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Sales people, that it's not doing yet because that requires
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: calling people up on the phone, which they haven't yet mastered.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: But I do think that the economist point, you know,
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: is pretty important for, look, you know, right now that's
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: the big debate. Right now, we haven't seen the mass
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: job loss. It could be coming, it could not be.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: They all warned about it until they stopped warning about it.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: They don't know.
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: That's the point. They do not know.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah. But Yeah, I mean, for me, it's just, I
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: keep coming back to that, the technology. And I go, okay,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: this friction, and I apologize if I seem obsessed with this,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: but you see it in everything. Silicon Valley has this theory,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: which has been completely wrong. Mark Zuckerberg believed by creating
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: a more interconnected world, that people would have better social interactions.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: That was 20 years ago. I think he actually did
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: believe that originally.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Agreed.
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: I think they stopped believing it.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: A lot of people did.
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: But this is totally wrong.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: What we have learned is that online social connection does
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: not translate into the real world and directly pulls from it.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: You and I both remember the Tinder panic, where when
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Tinder came out, people.
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: Were like, oh my God, people were hooking up all
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: the time. What happened instead?
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Went down. Sociability, number of dates and all that have...
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: plunged in terms of in-person social interaction. It turns out
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: that the swipe alone seems to have hijacked the dopamine
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: system to the point where people, they don't even want
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: to go talk to anybody more or anything, right? So
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: you've seen that replicate in every social interaction which has
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: had technology supposedly be like something that's going to enhance
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: it has pulled from it. And so when I look
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: at this agency talk and a lot of this AI use,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: they go, oh, you're going to be so much more
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: productive so you can have all this extra time on
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: your hands. What they don't tell you is that the
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: majority of their profit, their screen time, et cetera, is
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: centered around being addicted to the phone so that you
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: do nothing else. It's actually a binary problem. The more
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: things that you do outside in the real world, the
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: less time you are on the phone, the less ads
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: that they can serve you.
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: They need you to be a slave.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: I think this is actually a really good point that
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: you're making that I haven't heard a lot of other
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: people make, which is that if Zuckerberg wants to make
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: this argument about Muse and about the bots, then he
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: should actually also be, if he wants to say this
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: is going to make you so much.
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: Productive that you can spend more time in the regular world,
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: then end it.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly.
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: That's a fantastic point.
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: But they won't do it because that's where all the
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: money comes from.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: Right, exactly.
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: And so let's also look at the report out of
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: New York was very interesting where it saw some of
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: the pressures on jobs. But also what it got at
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: is that AI is creating a lot of value in
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: the real estate market at an interesting time in New
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: York City. So let's put this New York Times tear
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: sheet up on the screen as well.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: This is D3. High interest rates aren't slowing the AI boom.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: That's a problem for the Fed.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: So the Federal Reserve, the Times reports, has a conundrum
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: One of the primary drivers of today's growth and the
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: price pressures that have followed in this wake appears nearly
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: immune to the higher interest rates that the central bank
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: has begun to impose on the economy. Companies seeking to
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: expand their AI abilities have been undeterred by not only U.S.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: borrowing costs that have recently reached multi-decade highs, but also
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: soaring costs for electricity, high bandwidth memory, and other inputs
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: that are crucial to continued growth.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: So.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: How are you supposed to, when all of these companies
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: have a million resources, they have the resources to do
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: basically whatever they want, despite the fact that they're still
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: going to strong arm your local city council into giving
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: them all kinds of tax breaks.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: Which they don't need.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Right now, they're also going to artificially probably prop up
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: the real estate market and prop up the entire market,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: prop up the entire economy. It's horrifying, Sagar, because if
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: that intended productivity doesn't materialize and there's disagreement, as we
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: showed from Asimoglu in the other clip, that is very,
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: very frightening. And Sam Altman is trying to shove it
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: down everybody's throat with him as the arbiter of what's
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: a cost and what's a benefit and what exactly that
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: looks like.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: There's something, you know, I watched the trailer for the
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: artificial movie.
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: I saw it yesterday in theaters.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: First of all, it looks incredible. I can't wait to
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: go and watch it.
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: But there.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: maybe this is too personal, I look at Sam and
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: the way he talks, I'm like, dude, I don't trust you.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: And I think the reason why is because I put
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: him in the same paradigm of.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: Dario and Zuck and Sergey Brin.
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: Zuck is the best example.
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: And Larry Page.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: And I have 20 years now where I can look
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: back and they're like, well, this is how it's all
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: going to work. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Like every single thing
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: that they predicted about social media has had the opposite
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: intended effect. Remember with Twitter, they were like, it will
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: lead to mass democratization.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: No, it didn't. It was a disaster. Like, look, it's
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: been beneficial in some ways. Obviously, we built our careers here.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: And there's a lot of plus side to it that
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: we're able to go around these gatekeepers and all of that,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: et cetera. And for the people who watch this, like, seriously,
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: thank you. I do, we do our best to make this, what.
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: I hope is good content.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: To not respond to bad incentives.
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: Yeah, to not respond to the bad incentives.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: But take a look at the top 10 most watched
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: stuff on YouTube. Take a look at the top 10
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: most watched stuff on Netflix, for movies. Take a look
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: at the most popular Reels, TikTok creators, and all these other,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: where actual everyday people are spending the vast majority of
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: their time. And then you see the degradation. I mean,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Gen Z is literally dumber than millennials on an IQ basis.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: The first generation in modern history to actually drop points
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: whenever it comes to IQ. Why?
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: Screen time. It's not even a debate.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: And then you take a look at, we talked a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: lot about educational technology here on the show. We had
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: on that great guest who wrote the book, taking down
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: like the ed tech cartel. And then after he came on,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if we've done, we were going
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: to put in the show, something broke. but there's all
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: this global test data now to show that it's not
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: the pandemic. It literally is just screens across the entire OECD,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: which is nuking test scores, same benchmark, same population. I'm
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: talking about different demographics, different educational systems, different cultures. Every
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: single developed economy in the world is watching the same
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: precipitous drop in test scores. There's a few outliers, but
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, like all I see is just
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: creating more fake free time, unlocking more fake productivity just
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: so people, to the extent that they have more free time,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: we know what you're going to do. Like, you know,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: we literally could see it in the consumption data. All
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: of it just continues to go up on the phone
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: and less in the real world. And then depression, anxiety, marijuana, gambling,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: like all of this is a natural outgrowth.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: Zuckerberg and Jack are the best examples of people who
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: were trusted authorities on this and had a very strong
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: theory of the case, and it turned out to be untrue.
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: And so right now what we're seeing is another generation.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're the same generation, but another wave of
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: people in the industry who have a theory of the
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: case that is up in the air, that even experts
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: are saying is dubious. There's disagreement among experts and strong
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: disagreement among experts on this. Meanwhile, Trump has named a
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: new AI chief. So he actually named the DNI, D5.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: We can put this up on the screen. I'm curious
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: to get your take on this, Sagar. DNI Jay Clayton.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: is now the new AIs are. So that's Director of
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: National Intelligence Jay Clayton. People were thinking it might be
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: somebody from the industry. I heard Jebbia's name floated. I
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: heard other tech leaders' names floated, but he went with
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: the DNI.
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, straight. I mean, it is very odd, right, as
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: to why you pick this person.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: From what I get, Clayton and Trump, Trump just loves
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: this guy. So a lot of it is personal, as
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: I understand it.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: With Trump.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: Remember, you know, for the whole DNI thing and He's
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: been floating around previously. He was the SEC chairman. He
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: was Southern District. He kind of captured Trump's attention back
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: in the day. He just seems to be very enamored
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: with him. But I do think that the DNI issue
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: is important because they look at it purely in terms of, well,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: we don't want China to be able to take some
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: of the technology. They don't care really at all. about
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: regulating the technology itself. In fact, they need it. I mean,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: they literally needed to prop up the S & P 500.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, I was looking at it just this morning.
• 18:16
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, we're at a record high today.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: It's like- Yay. It feels good. If you own stocks,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: that's cool. But you've got mortgages at like 7.2, 7.3%.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: You've got gas at 4.20 a gallon. You've got a
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: record high home price. So I mean, yeah, if you're
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: rich and you have a bunch of stocks, that's awesome.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: But If you're not, which, what, 80%, 90% of people aren't, then.
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: You can see exactly where it's like. They look at that.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: For them, they don't care about how NVIDIA's stock price
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: are doing. And that's the other issue I've always made, too,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: is even if you don't care, even if you don't
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: have a stake in it, when it goes down, you
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: may not benefit on the way up, but you're definitely
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: going to get screwed on the way down.
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: Last thing. Go ahead.
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: I was going to say, I'm obsessed. Go to this.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: I'm obsessed with this chart.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: This is a fascinating chart put out by A16Z, so
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: obviously they have their own stake.
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: Makes it even better.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Put D6 up on the screen. They say 98% of U.S.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: households are not paying for AI yet. Now, a lot of,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: I think, more leftists picked up on this to show
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: AI is fake. I will give you the counter, which
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: is included in their own chart, is there actually is
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: something called a 3% consumer adoption threshold, which usually is
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: the adoption rate for paid technology, which... is going to
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: preview a mass adoption boom. So for example, personal computer,
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: personal adoption paid was 3% in 1983, led to the
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: personal PC revolution. Paid home internet, 1995, only 3%.
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Of Americans paid for home online.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Internet.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Wow, that makes me realize how early my dad was. Smartphone, 2006,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: only 3% of U.S. mobile users owned a smartphone in 2006.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: And paid consumer AI in 2026 is 3% of U.S. consumers.
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: So you could look at it two ways. You could
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: say it's fake.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: You could say also that we're quickly approaching the 3%.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: consumer adoption threshold. A lot of this stuff is at
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: the bleeding edge.
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: How do you look at it?
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting because compared with some of those other things,
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you use AI without a subscription, you
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: are also paying with your data.
• 20:23
  Speaker 8: Yes.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: So I think I'm more curious in like total use,
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: which my understanding is still lower than a lot of
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: the AI people.
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: Probably what, 30, 40%?
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's still not like, it might be a little
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: bit less than that, but that would be my guess,
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: be around like 20 to 30%. But I mean, it's
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: going up month over month. So the trajectory, at least
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: according to A16Z, it's funny because it's still only at 2.2%.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: But yeah, given where it started in April or January 2023,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's almost at 0%. So three-year period, you're
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: going up every single month. That's obviously what they want
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: to see, although the rise every month isn't huge either.
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: So it's not like a big one. See, your point
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: is very important.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: And another one seems obvious, but we should always make
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: the point. If you're not paying for it and you're
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: using it, then you are the And when you are
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: paying for it, which most people don't need to pay
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: for it. I pay for both Claude and for ChatGPT.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: I even use some of these personal agents. And it's
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: not because I want to.
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: Do you really use agents?
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I use Muse. I'm an early adopter of technology.
• 21:23
  Speaker 8: You are.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Just because I like to see what... I want to
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: be like, what's the bleeding edge? What does it look like?
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: That's one of the reasons why... I eventually came to
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: the point around the agents was I was using it.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: I go, you know, I don't think this is all
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: that useful for a lot of people. So for, you know,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Ben Thompson.
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: I think it creates more work sometimes, too.
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: I totally agree. They're like, oh, you need to approve this. Oh,
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: you need to do that. Here's your summary of all this.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: I go, is this really saving me time?
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's easier to just scroll my inbox than
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: it is to get a summary, which is kind of
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: shittily worded and doesn't particularly do a good job. Ben
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: Thompson made a good point about shopping. They're like, news
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: can go out and buy.
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: Something for you. First of all, it's not even true.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Amazon shut down recently their access, which stops their ability
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: to do it. But second, he goes, you know, people
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: love shopping. This is my screen time thing, where do
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: people really want to spend less time shopping? I'm not
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: so sure about that, actually. I think people love to shop.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I think people, you know, websites, entire billions of dollars
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: have been spent. People like to go to Wirecutter and
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: read reviews and all that.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: It's like, hmm.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Is that really something they want to outsource to AI? Again,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: I could be very pessimistic, but I just don't see
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: the evidence. Like, all the use cases that are put
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: out there are like, it'll book a dinner reservation for you.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, since I had a child, I've gone out
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: to dinner, a nice dinner, one time.
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: Which required a reservation. I'm like, this is not a
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: problem for me.
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: Shout out to Jillian.
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, thank you.
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: Take her on a date.
• 22:48
  Speaker 8: Yeah, thanks.
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: She's the one who booked it for me, ironically. Like,
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: literally a really nice restaurant.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: It went once in the last 17 months. I don't
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: know if that's that unique. I feel like that's probably
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: pretty common.
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, your baby's little, yeah.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: No, but I'm saying generally for most people, if you're
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: a parent, like, I mean, how many times you go
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: out to nice, which requires a hard-to-get reservation, like, twice
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: a year?
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: Most people never.
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah, most people never.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Maybe twice a year, like, max special occasion for a
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: big party, like, maybe your dad's birthday or something. You know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just not, like, this is not a problem. Like,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Or they're talking about checking in for flights. 50% of
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Americans don't.
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: Even fly, period.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: The other 50, you know, the vast majority of those people,
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: they take a flight like once a year to go
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: to Thanksgiving or Christmas. They just feel like they're creating
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: solutions to problems which only exist for the 1%. Maybe
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: even the 0.1%, like the guy booking a black car.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, man, next time I'm trying to book
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: my black car, I'll reach out to Hughes.
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: Literally never.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Hughes Research says about half of adults say they
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: ever use chatbots.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: A quarter use chatbots daily.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: So the kind of like hardcore AI people, I think,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: are still in a bubble about how the public is
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: actually adapting. So if you have a quarter using it daily,
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: I think that's actually still a pretty low number. It's up, obviously,
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: astronomically over time. But the way it's talked about in
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: the media is like it's already taken over the entire workforce.
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: And it really hasn't quite yet.
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: Yes and no, right? It's in the background.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I think the B2B application is very important, like enterprise
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: and obviously at the research level. So I don't want
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: to take away any of that. But this is a
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: different question. This is like a consumer question. And part
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: of the reason why people are so disconnected, only 2%
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: of people are paying for something. 98% are like, I'm
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: not so sure about that. Obviously, A16Z, the point they're
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: trying to make is that everyone will be using it eventually.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I still remain skeptical. Or if they do use it,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: it's not going to be in the way that currently
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the tech people are selling it. All right, let's get
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: to gambling. Turning now to gambling. So at the very top, I'll.
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: Just admit this. I don't know anything about the NBA.
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: In fact, I can barely pronounce Mr. Wemby's name. I
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: do know he plays with Santana.
• 24:56
  Speaker 8: Mr.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: Wemby.
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: So shout out to them.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Now, with all that said, I do at the very
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: least track some of the cultural backlash amongst some of
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: these athletes against sports betting. And what you will notice
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: is that the vast majority of our American homegrown athletes,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: people like Kevin Durant and LeBron James, who admittedly, in
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: some cases, they come from troubled backgrounds or struggling communities,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: they have no problem shilling for sports betting and encouraging
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: that amongst their fan base. But for some reason, it's
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: these athletes that come from abroad, and specifically, I guess,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: with France, where you both have Wemby and Kylian Mbappe,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: who call back to their childhood and and to their country,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: and they're like, we feel shame to want to promote
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: as something as disgusting as sports gambling. So here's Wemby.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: He was asked about it. Will you ever sign a
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: deal with a sports betting company?
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: Here's what he had to say.
• 25:54
  Speaker 8: Absolutely not. I will never do that. Honestly, I think
• 25:59
  Speaker 8: it's very sad to see some players come out and
• 26:06
  Speaker 8: make a deal with this. Everybody does whatever they want to.
• 26:11
  Speaker 8: We're happy.
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: How do you make decisions on which companies, which brands
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: you connect with and connect your names?
• 26:20
  Speaker 8: You know, in the past, there was a dimension of
• 26:26
  Speaker 8: money in the past. Not anymore. Now it's... Even if
• 26:33
  Speaker 8: I say that, I've refused, you know, much, much more
• 26:36
  Speaker 8: money that I've made for things that were not to
• 26:41
  Speaker 8: my values, you know? And now I want to come
• 26:44
  Speaker 8: up with things that have a good impact, have a
• 26:48
  Speaker 8: good influence. I can, with Boo, I can share messages,
• 26:52
  Speaker 8: you know, and values. But one thing that's very important,
• 27:01
  Speaker 8: for me, our biggest strength is not our, obviously we're
• 27:05
  Speaker 8: in millions and millions, this is not our biggest strength.
• 27:08
  Speaker 8: Our biggest strength is inspiring, and we can inspire in
• 27:11
  Speaker 8: a good or a bad way. I want to inspire
• 27:12
  Speaker 8: in a good way. That's the strongest thing I can do.
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: Nice little standard there that these French athletes are setting.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Remember, Kylian Mbappe had said when they asked him, why
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: don't you take sports betting money? He even refused to
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: participate in a photo shoot for the French national team
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: because they were doing some deal with sports.
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: He said, no, I'm not doing that.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: The translation is rough, but he basically said, You know,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: when he says suburb, because a lot of Americans don't
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: understand that, Mbappe was like, well, a lot of us
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: grew up in the suburbs, and we're like, well, here
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: the suburbs are good. I'm like, yeah, but they're bad.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: You can turn on the news in France right now
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: to see what's going on. But the point remains is
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: that these foreign athletes appear to just have like a
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: moral line in the sand. And he even said in there,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: he's like, look, we have plenty of money. It's not
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: about money, you know, for a certain amount of them.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: And yet, for our athletes, it is. Kevin Durant, Washington, D.C., here, native.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: Here's what he had to say whenever he was confronted
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: about this, considering he just signed a partnership with FanDuel.
• 28:07
  Speaker 8: That's Wimby. He's going to do what he does. That
• 28:10
  Speaker 8: has nothing to do with me.
• 28:13
  Speaker 5: I really don't think about that question at all.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: It's not really on my mind as much as his.
• 28:19
  Speaker 8: But people are going to do what they want to do.
• 28:21
  Speaker 8: That's really what it is.
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: What do I do on a day?
• 28:24
  Speaker 8: I try to partner with people.
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: He kind of aligned with my day-to-day vision on stuff.
• 28:29
  Speaker 8: So, you know, some people, you know, some partners are
• 28:31
  Speaker 8: going to be with for a long time. It's something
• 28:33
  Speaker 8: you want. But that's just the nature of the business.
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: The nature of the business.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: I didn't even think about the morality of promoting this.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: And this is somebody who came, again, from Washington, D.C.,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: from a difficult childhood, difficult background. He doesn't care that
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: his fans and others who are dead broke in PG
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: County from where he is from.
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: Are literally all going to lose.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: on average, a significant part of money, which they would
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: be putting into savings.
• 29:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's what I find so disgusting about this
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: entire thing.
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: Well, and it's a perfect contrast with Wemby, actually, who
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: didn't even think about doing it. So it's actually the
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: perfect contrast, because what you saw with Wemby was just
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: complete and total moral clarity. He gets asked the question,
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: and he just says, absolutely not. And then here you
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: have Durant being like, You.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Know, it's part of the business.
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: It's just part of the business.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: It's gonna do what we're gonna do, as if it
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: is a value-neutral decision.
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: It's not a value-neutral decision. No, of course. And the
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: thing that always gets me with these guys, you're getting
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: paid hard cash. They don't have to do this.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: You're getting paid, these people have worked hundreds of millions.
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: Of dollars, What's LeBron worth? A billion dollars? Something like that? Eight,
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: nine hundred million?
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: Got to be close.
• 29:43
  Speaker 7: All of that.
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: Put the next one up here.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: E3. Just to put it into perspective for all of you.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: So LeBron's polymarket deal is now rated at some $ 15
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: million per year. So, I mean, on the one hand,
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: for any of us, that is a life-changing sum of money.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: For him, it's a rounding error. It's less than 1%
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: of his entire net worth. And yet, he has decided
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: to not just promote this company, he does weekly picks,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: follow him on Parlay, he does this ad with Polymarket
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: and Eli Manning and Spike Lee and all of these
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: other figures. And, you know, what's crazy to me, as
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: they even point out here in this athletic story, is,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: you know, the ethics of this inside the league and with.
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: The NBA rules, they're, you know, they're really uncomfortable.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: As they point out, the NBA can regulate salary, but
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: it can't regulate everything else. It gets uncomfortable when the
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: money is coming from these prediction markets, which are literally
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: being sued in many of these cases by different states
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: for operating according to them. illegal gambling houses. Remember, Giannis,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: one of these other NBA stars, became a Kalshi shareholder
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: for the tune of some $ 25 million. And before the
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: trade deadline, $ 25 million, even before he became a shareholder,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: was traded on markets about his next team. The current
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: league rules permits them to hold stakes in prediction markets
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: and gambling companies. Adam Silver goes, well, it's only capped
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: at 1%. There's no evidence. that they've done anything wrong.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: But I'll give you a great example. Like, this is different.
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: This is NFL.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: So, Polymark and Calshi, remember, they go like, look, we're
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: not gambling. We don't have to regulate gambling. Like, you know,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: it's all trading. It's just investing. If you lose your money,
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: it's fair. It's a lot fairer than when you lose
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: your money in the casino. Okay. And, well, according to them,
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: they have the most responsible bets on Polymark and Calshi.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: The NFL has sent them multiple letters, and they are
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: actually begging our government to come in and to say, please,
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: at the very least, the NFL, who are the most
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: capitalist scum in the world, who are happy to partner
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: with DraftKings and FanDuel and all these other people, they
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: are begging Calcium Polymergate. hey, there are certain markets you
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: guys have. You need to take these down. And the
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: reason why you need to take them down is they're
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: highly manipulatable, right? Is that they're actually very easy to
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: have insider trading and all these other kinds of problems.
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: Calcium polymarket, you know what the response is? No, we're
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: not going to do it. Because they can't. Because they
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: don't want to.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: Because people will gamble on it. And so that's my point. Look,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: if there's enough of a moral outrage, like let's say
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: over injury markets and all those things, they won't do
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: it because it, quote, looks bad. But there's nothing preventing
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: them from doing it. A lot of these trade decisions...
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: Mention markets, numbers of points, numbers of yards, rebounds. I mean,
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: all kinds of things which are so easily to manipulate,
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: to shave, to push in one certain direction. You don't
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: have to throw a game anymore. You can just do
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: one or two things differently and, quote, hit the under.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: And you can make somebody millions of dollars. That's the
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: issue behind this entire thing. And I just think the
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: contrast between these foreign athletes... who appear to just have
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: some sense of moral character and say, I am a,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: you know, LeBron, this guy, oh, Boys and Girls Club
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: and all of that.
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: What message does it send to the Boys and.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Girls Club to all of these like, you know, people
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: who are not gonna play in the NBA and be like, yeah,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: I am a proponent, a paid proponent of gambling. What
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: message is that gonna send to those people? You know,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: and that's the thing, you know, for the vast majority
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: of these people, the vast, vast majority of people, who gamble,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: you're not quote doing anything wrong because you're not an addict,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: but you have to remember that the vast majority of
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: the profits come from the three to 8% of the
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: customers who are no shit gambling addicts who are, who
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: comprise of almost 60 to 80% of the profits. And
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: so the only reason you get to do and have
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: your fun $ 1 bet or $ 2 bet or whatever is
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: because of those 3% to 8%. And that 3% to 8%,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: when you take that across every man in America, and
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: apparently like 10% of women... I've been getting messages lately
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: from moms of young girls who are apparently into sports betting.
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what's the thing.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Women can do anything.
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: Okay, you're right. I can't imagine. I just pray, you know,
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: look at my daughter.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine my daughter who's 16 years old. She's
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: like betting it over on women's tennis.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: I'm like, what are you doing?
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: Betting on Caitlin Clark.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, betting on Clayton Clark's number of rebounds. But
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: from what I understand, you know, is that this 3%
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: to 8%, You know, do the math at scale. This
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: is the first year in American history that gambling is
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: legal nationwide, thanks to Donald Trump, the CFTC, with all
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: of these calci and poly market defense that they've given them.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: That 3% to 8% over hundreds of millions.
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: Is literally millions of people. Millions of people.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: And check your social media feed in the same way
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: that you have with, we had with fentanyl, right, which
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: swept the nation. And I'm sure you know somebody. I
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: was checked. a couple of people I graduated from high
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: school with. People have a fentanyl story, overdose story, prison story,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: something like that, right? Which people you never would have predicted. Well,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: these types of stories are all going viral on social media. Quote,
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: I'll just read you one.
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: Somebody sent it to me yesterday.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I just found out that a couple I've been friends
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: with for years are now getting a divorce because the
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: husband lost $ 300, 000 gambling and just lost the house. And
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: what they said is, So he was responding. He even
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: posted the text exchange. They say they had to get
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: a HELOC to cover all their debts and had no
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: equity to sell. And so apparently, you know, they tried
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: to save their marriage, et cetera. Well, all of this HELOC,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: they don't have the money to pay back.
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: And now they have no equity. It's sell the house.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: They're coming out of it completely bust. So that's how
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: quick it can all happen. And just if you think
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: that's anecdotal, I have covered day after day after day
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: here on the show. about all of these lawsuits, some cases, wives,
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: who are posting these types of stories and are being like, look,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: look what my husband did.
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: Look what's happening here. Look what's happening here.
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: It continues to show up in a lot of these
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: lawsuits to the extent where these guys are.
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: Gambling away millions of dollars. Why? It just should not
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: be acceptable. People say, oh, you're an idiot. I agree.
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: We can keep the personal responsibility. Yeah, you are an idiot.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: You betrayed your family and you failed them. However, We
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: should not enable you to do so. And that's what
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: gets me about this entire thing.
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: You know, I texted you recently because I've always been
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: with you on this issue. But Wade was on Megan's
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: show with the Sydney Sweeney ad, the Novig ad, right?
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: And I texted you.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: It was such an interesting backlash because it was a pretty, like,
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I guess the clip must have been going viral or something.
• 36:51
  Speaker 8: Yeah.
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: The combination of Sidney Sweeney and sports gambling was utterly toxic,
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: but what I found so interesting about it is that
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: having covered men's, like, the sort of undermining of men
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: that has happened across American society in a lot of
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: ways that some of our viewers may disagree with, but, like, as.
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: A conservative, they covered that. Oh, yeah, of course, I'm
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: with you.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: No, I know, but it was interesting because I think
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: some of the backlash is that men feel like they
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: are once again.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: Being sort of treated.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know, condescendingly by more, but by like elite
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: saying like, you can't be trusted to handle X, Y,
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: and Z. And it's like, it's interesting that that to
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: me was the characteristic of the backlash.
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: Who are you to tell me what to do?
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Right, right.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: And it's interesting because it's like, I'm with you on
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: all of that. These corporations are designing products that are
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: meant to keep you poor.
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: That's all I'm trying to say to them is you
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: think you're making a choice. You're not. You are being.
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: Or many of you are not making it.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: Many of you lose your capacity to make a choice,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: just like we all do when we get addicted to alcohol.
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: Exactly right. Everybody who knows anything about drug and alcohol addiction.
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: It's the same thing with social media.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: It's the same thing with social media addiction.
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: Social media.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: There's an element of choice, but there's also, at a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: certain point for a lot of these addicts, the concept
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: of choice is, starts to operate within a system where
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: the confines are 10 drinks or 18, but you're drinking
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: no matter what.
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: Same whenever fentanyl, heroin, any of these types of things.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: At a certain point, the chemical, the actual addiction, the
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: same thing applies to gambling. So let's take the Sidney
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: Sweeney thing. You think I have the right to do that.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: So you are watching a multi-million dollar corporation use soft
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: core pornography and gambling, so the promise of riches and
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: porn to the things that are basically designed to tickle
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: your dopamine system and take it all the way up
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: as high as it can possibly do to trick you
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: into placing bets to lose your money. And you are
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: such a fool, you think that you're in control. And
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: that if anybody else gets completely out of control, that's
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: on them and that you actually have this illusion, right,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: that's around you. And that's the part which really bothers me.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: For example, let's put E4 up here on the screen.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Perfect example.
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: It's not gambling.
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: Here's a great NPR report. After bankruptcy, they profile this guy.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: They say he was banned from sports betting sites. Then
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: he discovers Cal Sheet.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: Oh, how did that happen?
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: Well, you have a guy named Thomas, 35 years old, quote,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: identified by his middle name fearing his problem gambling history.
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: Could affect his career. Yeah, you think? But he says,
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: sports gambling was different. It really got to me.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: He never cared much for sports, yet betting on games
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: just seemed like an easy way to make a buck.
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: Here we go.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: He started placing wagers on football and tennis using parlays.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: And lo and behold, he goes completely broke. Working from
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: home in Pennsylvania in the financial services industry, Thomas says
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: that there were a few moments he didn't have one
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: eye on placing a bet as he juggled work emails
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: and bets when his paychecks arrived He would quickly squander
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: all of it trying to dig himself out of the
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: gambling hole only to find himself deeper.
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: This cycle continued for years.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: He ended up racking up $ 75, 000 in debt from credit
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: cards and personal loans and ended up more than $ 50, 000
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: in the red from the online sportsbooks, filed for bankruptcy
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: in late 2023. He then did, and this is a
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: very important practice, which, by the way, took advocates years
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: to push for, despite what the casinos will tell you.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: He banned himself from FanDuel and DraftKings, which is great.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: This guy's debt-free, declares bankruptcy, and he says, I want
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: to self-exclude myself.
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: Phenomenal.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: One day, he says, I then come across an ad.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: I'm scrolling on Instagram, another addiction, and I come across
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: an ad for Kalshi.
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: I was bored.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I thought this could be fun. Thomas saw an ad
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: offering a $ 20 cash bonus for the first $ 10 bet. Now,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: first of all, do you know any stock trading app
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: that's giving you free money and free bet and all that, huh?
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: Robinhood or any of that, they might give you one
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: free stock.
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: We should try to do that.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Something like that.
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: We should just give people free money.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: Hunter Biden stock.
• 40:50
  Speaker 8: Yeah, you're right.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: All right, so he goes, betting 10 became a couple hundred.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: The couple hundred became thousands more. Before long, I was
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: more than $ 25, 000 in the red.
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: Kalshi calls this, quote, a cherry-picked case.
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: If you ask our millions of traders, they would emphatically
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: tell you an exchange model is significantly healthier than a
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: sportsbook model. Our profits are not tried to trade our losses,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: so we don't have the same predatory incentives. Really, because
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: the more trades this guy makes, the more money you
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: make as an exchange. And so they point out, Thomas,
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: who now has to live with his mom and works
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: as a grocery store cashier, and apparently his grandma in
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: a childhood home, has now been economically struggling for decades.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: He went from a financial services industry, making good money,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: to bust, bankrupt, addicted Do you even know what bankruptcy does?
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: To your credit, start over again, get re-addicted to this
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: entire thing. And what happens is that Kalshi only recently
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: introduced self-exclusion, not because they're required to, but because they
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: were pressured by advocates, people like me, speaking out against this. Kalshi, quote,
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: did eventually bar him from betting, but now he is
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: trying to find his financial footing after frittering away all
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: of his savings that he was able.
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: To get back in this time period.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: So, That's the problem, is the people, you know, the
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Trump administration has legalized all this. You cannot even get
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Congress to pass something called a national self-exclusion list, which
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: would require Kalshi Polymarket on all of these other exchanges
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: to just abide by that. Or, the other problem is,
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: some of these will be statewide. So... let's say you're
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: an addict in Missouri. So you walk in, you're like,
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: ban me. People are like, okay, you're banned. Or MGM properties.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: You could literally leave the state and you could go
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: to a Caesars property.
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: They love to see you coming. A gambling addict who's
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: banned from one of their competitors. That's a dream. And
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: so that's how they make all their dollars.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: Look, I know I covered it, but you have to
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: give people information to counter program. I mean, when you
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: watch the NFL, it is literally nonstop. Kalshi, FanDuel, DraftKings.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: You can't even listen to anything about the games without
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: people telling you about spreads, my five picks, my blazing
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: hot ones, my locks.
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: There's no such thing.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: It really makes me despair because people are going broke
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: at such a rapid pace. They just don't appreciate it,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: especially with the type of bets that they're placing.
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: That NPR article also mentions one of the things that
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: just I feel like is not talked about enough. They
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: mentioned recently, however, Kalshi asked federal regulators to allow to
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: introduce a product that would allow traders to bet with
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: borrowed money.
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: Insane.
• 43:29
  Speaker 8: Yeah, margin.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Known in the financial sector as quote unquote leverage. Kalshi
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: said the feature is aimed at attracting large institutional investors
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: who the company is also trying to draw in. So
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: that is also now part of their strategy is that
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: you invest. on your couch trying to make a buck
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: to pay for the bill when you take your girlfriend
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: out on a date this weekend, you're betting against these
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: institutional investors with massive AI-powered programs behind them. So it's
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: not really just like a David versus, or I'm sorry,
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: it's not like egalitarian. It's now like a David versus Goliath,
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: but in a way that is designed.
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: To be exploitive, basically.
• 44:04
  Speaker 8: Yes, exactly.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: The people who are taking the other side of your action,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: the market makers, they're doing it because They're driving, I
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: forget how to pronounce it.
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: It's like Susquehanna or something.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Susquehanna.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: They are literally driving Porsches, buying mansions.
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: That's just yes.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They are buying mansions, Porsches, second homes in Florida,
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Palm Beach, private jets off of your money.
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: That's what's happening.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: And yet people just want to throw it all away.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: And the last thing I just want to show you
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: is if you think it's just Republicans that are the
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: problem in this entire thing. Let's put, what is it,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: the last element, guys, about Keisha Lance Bottoms. So yesterday,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is, well, she's the Atlanta mayor,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: she's running for governor in the state of Georgia. Very likely,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: or not likely entirely, but, you know, she's a competitor.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: She could easily win the election. Is now saying she
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: supports a statewide vote on casino gambling and says legislation, legalization,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: of casino gambling would, quote, be an economic development tool
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: for struggling communities.
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: Okay?
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: An economic development tool for struggling communities. What do you
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: think is going to happen when you put a casino
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: in a struggling community? What's the most likely thing that's
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: going to happen?
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: Oh, I've seen it happen.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: No, I literally. Go take a, there's a casino here
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: in Washington, D.C. Not anymore. Or the MGM?
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: In Navy Yard?
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: No, the MGM.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: Oh, so they put an MGM sportsbook in Navy Yard.
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: Oh, I didn't know that.
• 45:33
  Speaker 7: Okay, even better.
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: So there's an MGM casino.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: Go on down there and see what happens to struggling communities.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: And a recent casino conference estimated that one in five
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: people on the casino floor are actually gambling addicts, not
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: just the 3% to 8%. But the actual physical presence
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: of the people who are on the casino floor are
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: no shit actual addicts who are just throwing all their money.
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: And that's people who are actually on the floor.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of friction to get from point A
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: to point B as opposed to just picking this up.
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: Bingo.
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: So that's what we've legalized. Thank you, Wemby. I'll buy
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: a jersey.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: Thank you guys so much for watching. We had a
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: scheduling issue with Todd. We'll try to work it out
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: and get him back here on the show. But Emily
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: and I are going to be on again tomorrow.
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: So we'll see you all then.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: See you, everyone.