Latest / Pod Save America / Why No One’s Winning Young Voters (Ep. 5)
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hey everyone, just wanted to let you know that we
- 0:03Speaker 1: recorded this episode a few days before the debate that
- 0:07Speaker 1: has changed everything. But we still want to bring you
- 0:12Speaker 1: the episode that we recorded because the concerns that you're
- 0:15Speaker 1: going to hear from these voters are concerns that they
- 0:18Speaker 1: expressed before the debate and they are concerns that they
- 0:21Speaker 1: will express after the debate, I'm sure. So with that,
- 0:26Speaker 1: here's our episode.
- 0:33Speaker 2: That's sort of where young people sit generationally in history
- 0:37Speaker 2: in general is like we are always the group of
- 0:39Speaker 2: people that are going to be fighting and begging and
- 0:41Speaker 2: demanding change. Like we're never going to be OK with
- 0:44Speaker 2: what the status quo is. So even if Biden has
- 0:46Speaker 2: been the most progressive president and we do talk about that,
- 0:49Speaker 2: I think young people are always going to be the
- 0:50Speaker 2: group that pushes us to be better, to have a
- 0:54Speaker 2: more equitable and fair society, because we've always been that
- 0:57Speaker 2: way on every civil justice fight that's existed.
- 1:00Speaker 3: In my opinion.
- 1:00Speaker 4: So.
- 1:01Speaker 2: I think we just need to do a better job
- 1:03Speaker 2: at talking to them.
- 1:06Speaker 1: Anderson Clayton is a 26-year-old voter in a swing state
- 1:09Speaker 1: who wants to see a generational shift in our politics.
- 1:12Speaker 1: That makes her just like most Gen Z voters. What
- 1:15Speaker 1: makes her different is that she decided to run for
- 1:18Speaker 1: state party chair in North Carolina and is now the
- 1:21Speaker 1: youngest person in America to ever hold that title. We
- 1:25Speaker 1: called her up to talk about what she's hearing from
- 1:27Speaker 1: young voters in North Carolina as she tries to flip
- 1:29Speaker 1: the state this November. A tough challenge in a place
- 1:32Speaker 1: that's only competitive because of an electorate that keeps getting
- 1:36Speaker 1: younger and more diverse. For a few decades now, young
- 1:39Speaker 1: voters have been a big reason that Democrats win elections.
- 1:42Speaker 1: In 2020, over half of 18 to 29-year-olds voted, low
- 1:46Speaker 1: compared to other age groups, but still the highest youth
- 1:49Speaker 1: turnout since the voting age was lowered to 18. For
- 1:52Speaker 1: the first time ever, there were more Gen Z and
- 1:55Speaker 1: millennial voters combined than there were baby boomers and the
- 1:58Speaker 1: silent generation. And these voters supported Biden by around 20
- 2:02Speaker 1: points more than Trump, a huge gap that we also
- 2:06Speaker 1: saw in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. But there are
- 2:12Speaker 1: warning signs everywhere that 2024 may not look the same.
- 2:16Speaker 1: You see it in polls, you hear it in focus groups,
- 2:19Speaker 1: and you've probably heard it anecdotally. A lot of younger
- 2:22Speaker 1: voters seem more disillusioned and angry than usual about politics,
- 2:26Speaker 1: the two parties, and their presidential candidates. Democrats have always
- 2:30Speaker 1: had challenges getting younger people to actually vote. But this time,
- 2:34Speaker 1: there's a concern that even if they do vote, they
- 2:37Speaker 1: might not support Biden or other Democrats by the same
- 2:40Speaker 1: margins they have in the past. The big question, of course,
- 2:45Speaker 1: is why. And what would actually motivate young voters to
- 2:48Speaker 1: get out and help defeat Trump and MAGA politicians with
- 2:52Speaker 1: the same turnout and margins that we saw in 2018, 2020,
- 2:54Speaker 1: and 2022? We asked Anderson what she thinks.
- 3:00Speaker 2: I think that parties in previous years have been the
- 3:03Speaker 2: ways that people were motivated to turn out and vote.
- 3:05Speaker 2: But I think in terms of young people, issues are
- 3:08Speaker 2: going to motivate them a lot more this year and
- 3:11Speaker 2: in future generations and in future cycles of political organizing
- 3:14Speaker 2: that we're going to see. And young people really care
- 3:16Speaker 2: about specific policy issues. Finding a job, finding a house,
- 3:20Speaker 2: being able to live, like deciding where they want to.
- 3:23Speaker 2: Do they want to start a family?
- 3:24Speaker 5: Do they not?
- 3:24Speaker 2: Like that should be their decision to make at the
- 3:26Speaker 2: end of the day. Like, Gaza and I, cause I,
- 3:29Speaker 2: I think about it and I'm like, that is the
- 3:31Speaker 2: one issue I hear so much talked about when we
- 3:34Speaker 2: put young people in that category. We have heard the
- 3:36Speaker 2: president call for a ceasefire. We've heard the vice president
- 3:39Speaker 2: call for a ceasefire. Like I am not negating that
- 3:41Speaker 2: that is a huge issue for a lot of young people,
- 3:44Speaker 2: especially a lot of politically active young people that are
- 3:47Speaker 2: aware of that issue, have been aware of it and
- 3:50Speaker 2: know what's going on. And I've also come into a
- 3:52Speaker 2: political awakening on it. But I also think that like,
- 3:56Speaker 2: Young voters, especially in the South right now, have seen
- 3:59Speaker 2: our rights be fundamentally stripped from us. And I think
- 4:03Speaker 2: that people here in this region of the country care
- 4:06Speaker 2: a lot about what is happening at the state level
- 4:09Speaker 2: and at the local level, because it is causing us
- 4:12Speaker 2: to not be able to see a future staying in
- 4:14Speaker 2: the state that we grew up in, that we care about,
- 4:16Speaker 2: that we want to live in for the next 50 years.
- 4:19Speaker 2: And so a lot of those issues look like housing affordability.
- 4:23Speaker 2: It looks like wages in North Carolina. Abortion rights is
- 4:27Speaker 2: something that I hear from college campuses every day when
- 4:29Speaker 2: I'm on them. And also the fact, I mean, UNC
- 4:32Speaker 2: Chapel Hill had two school shooter drills last year alone,
- 4:37Speaker 2: and they had a faculty member that unfortunately was killed
- 4:40Speaker 2: with an active shooter on one of their campuses. And
- 4:42Speaker 2: that came from our state legislature repealing the pistol permit vote.
- 4:47Speaker 2: that came down in 2023. And we have seen this
- 4:50Speaker 2: legislature come for young people. And I'm like, God, if
- 4:55Speaker 2: I can't get y'all motivated by the fact that these
- 4:57Speaker 2: people are literally stripping away your fundamental freedom, I don't
- 5:02Speaker 2: know what more I can do in this election cycle.
- 5:08Speaker 1: This will sound repetitive, but contrary to the impression you
- 5:11Speaker 1: may get from the news and social media, it turns
- 5:14Speaker 1: out that the majority of young people care most about
- 5:17Speaker 1: the same issues nearly every other group of voters cares about.
- 5:20Speaker 1: Their cost of living, their basic rights and freedoms, and
- 5:24Speaker 1: the safety of their communities. The difference is, they are
- 5:27Speaker 1: more doubtful than most that the people who represent them
- 5:31Speaker 1: will actually be able to deliver for them. Especially when
- 5:34Speaker 1: those politicians' life experiences seem so different and distant from
- 5:38Speaker 1: their own.
- 5:39Speaker 2: I tell people all the time, I'm like, young people
- 5:40Speaker 2: got to organize young folks. Like, did you listen to
- 5:43Speaker 2: your parents necessarily? Probably not. Like we listen to the
- 5:46Speaker 2: people in the community that is around us. And like,
- 5:49Speaker 2: what is our voting block feeling about this election cycle?
- 5:53Speaker 2: Do they feel the doom and gloom that's provided to
- 5:55Speaker 2: us every day with a phone screen that tells you
- 5:57Speaker 2: you can do nothing about politics whatsoever? You can't change it.
- 6:01Speaker 2: Or do they listen to the person that's out there
- 6:02Speaker 2: in their group chat that's saying, hey, I'm going out
- 6:06Speaker 2: to knock doors today for Joe Biden and for Kamala
- 6:08Speaker 2: Harris or for Josh Stein and for Alison Riggs, who's
- 6:10Speaker 2: running for Supreme Court in North Carolina. I need you
- 6:13Speaker 2: to come out with me. Let's go out and knock
- 6:15Speaker 2: doors for a candidate that actually wants to see a
- 6:17Speaker 2: future that envisions young people in it in this community.
- 6:23Speaker 1: Anderson's last point is an important one. Even though younger
- 6:27Speaker 1: voters have the same concerns as other generations, they have
- 6:30Speaker 1: the longest future ahead of them. And they're not going
- 6:33Speaker 1: to participate in a political system that doesn't focus on
- 6:36Speaker 1: that future, especially when it seems so uncertain right now.
- 6:41Speaker 1: So how do we convince young voters that their participation
- 6:44Speaker 1: is the only way to fix what's broken about politics?
- 6:47Speaker 1: How do we get more Anderson Claytons, or even just
- 6:50Speaker 1: enough young people who are willing to stave off the
- 6:52Speaker 1: threat of Trumpism again? A few weeks ago, I caught
- 6:55Speaker 1: up with two people who've been talking to young voters
- 6:57Speaker 1: and asking these questions for years. John De La Volpe
- 7:01Speaker 1: and Kristen Soltis Anderson. John is an advisor to the
- 7:05Speaker 1: Biden campaign, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy
- 7:08Speaker 1: School of Politics, and the author of Fight, how Gen
- 7:11Speaker 1: Z is channeling their fear and passion to save America.
- 7:15Speaker 1: Kristen is a pollster who leads focus groups for the
- 7:17Speaker 1: New York Times and is the author of The Selfie Vote,
- 7:21Speaker 1: where millennials are leading America and how Republicans can keep up.
- 7:25Speaker 1: You'll hear our conversation next, followed by more from Anderson
- 7:28Speaker 1: on what's happening on the ground in North Carolina this year.
- 7:33Speaker 1: I'm Jon Favreau. Welcome to the Wilderness.
- 7:42Speaker 6: All right.
- 7:42Speaker 1: So we are talking this season about different groups of
- 7:46Speaker 1: undecided voters who aren't yet sold on Joe Biden or
- 7:49Speaker 1: Donald Trump or even voting at all. And I wanted
- 7:52Speaker 1: to talk to the two of you because one of
- 7:54Speaker 1: the biggest mysteries of this election is what's going on
- 7:57Speaker 1: with young voters, a group both of you have spent
- 8:00Speaker 1: years polling, studying, talking to, writing entire books about. So
- 8:04Speaker 1: I guess the first thing I'd love to hear your
- 8:07Speaker 1: thoughts on is this. Historically, the debate about younger voters
- 8:11Speaker 1: has been whether or not they'll show up. Still a
- 8:14Speaker 1: big question in this race, but now there's a debate
- 8:16Speaker 1: about who they'll vote for. We've seen some polls like yours, John,
- 8:21Speaker 1: like the most recent CBS poll that show Biden maintaining
- 8:24Speaker 1: roughly the same advantage with younger voters that he had
- 8:27Speaker 1: in 2020. Other polls that show Trump gaining quite a
- 8:30Speaker 1: bit of support among these voters. John, what do you
- 8:34Speaker 1: think's going on here?
- 8:36Speaker 5: I think it really is fascinating Dependent upon the definition
- 8:41Speaker 5: of the poll, definition of the sample. The poll that
- 8:44Speaker 5: you're referring to, which is the 25th year at Harvard,
- 8:48Speaker 5: shows among likely voters that the race is relatively normal.
- 8:53Speaker 4: In other words, the Democrat.
- 8:55Speaker 5: Five or six months out when we conducted the survey,
- 8:58Speaker 5: is in the mid-50s. Republican, somewhere in the mid-30s.
- 9:01Speaker 4: So among that.
- 9:04Speaker 5: Relatively narrow set of likely voters. That's kind of what
- 9:08Speaker 5: I see, and I think that's what was reflected in
- 9:10Speaker 5: the CBS YouGov poll over the weekend. When we broaden
- 9:15Speaker 5: that up, when we look at registered voters, when we
- 9:18Speaker 5: look at the entire 18- to 29-year-old cohort, or when
- 9:22Speaker 5: we add in third-party and independent candidates, the data becomes
- 9:28Speaker 5: more opaque, and I think that's where we see a
- 9:31Speaker 5: significant shift relative to what we would expect to be
- 9:34Speaker 5: at this point.
- 9:35Speaker 4: But right now, where I sit, it looks relatively normal
- 9:38Speaker 4: when we look at likely voters.
- 9:40Speaker 1: Kristen, what do you think?
- 9:41Speaker 7: I think that I look at polls like John's and
- 9:44Speaker 7: I put a lot of stock in them because they
- 9:46Speaker 7: are specifically looking just at young voters. I do polls
- 9:51Speaker 7: all the time of the broader electorate and out of
- 9:54Speaker 7: a thousand likely voters, the slice that's going to be
- 9:57Speaker 7: in that 18 to 29 group is relatively small. Sometimes
- 10:00Speaker 7: we're doing sampling using online panels that are matched back
- 10:05Speaker 7: to the voter file in our data. That's one way
- 10:07Speaker 7: that we try to ensure good data quality, but it
- 10:09Speaker 7: doesn't fix everything. And so if you asked me, what
- 10:12Speaker 7: do I trust more, a subsample of a survey or
- 10:16Speaker 7: John's survey? I would say John's survey more. 100 times
- 10:19Speaker 7: out of 100. And so I think when it comes
- 10:21Speaker 7: to the data where you're looking just at young voters,
- 10:24Speaker 7: not at a small subsample that bounces around a lot,
- 10:28Speaker 7: you do pretty consistently see a story of young voters
- 10:31Speaker 7: being not that in love with Joe Biden, maybe being
- 10:36Speaker 7: open to the idea of voting for Donald Trump, but
- 10:38Speaker 7: they are not conservatives. They are not Republicans. And that's
- 10:42Speaker 7: an important distinction to make.
- 10:44Speaker 1: OK, I want to. take a step back and talk
- 10:47Speaker 1: about what you guys have been hearing from young voters. John,
- 10:50Speaker 1: you've been conducting focus groups in town halls all over
- 10:52Speaker 1: the country, some of which you've generously offered to share
- 10:55Speaker 1: with us today. Let's start with some general views from
- 10:59Speaker 1: voters in Columbus, Phoenix, and Atlanta about politics, government, and
- 11:05Speaker 1: what it's like to be young in America today.
- 11:07Speaker 5: Who agrees with that, like, when you turn 25, everything
- 11:10Speaker 5: kind of sucks?
- 11:11Speaker 7: Is that what you said, someone?
- 11:13Speaker 4: Raise your hand. Raise your hand.
- 11:17Speaker 8: Raise your hand if you connect in some way to
- 11:20Speaker 8: what Chelsea said.
- 11:21Speaker 5: Once you turn 25 or so, everything kind of sucks.
- 11:24Speaker 9: Raise your hand.
- 11:25Speaker 8: Keep them up there for a second.
- 11:28Speaker 1: All right.
- 11:30Speaker 10: Almost everybody.
- 11:31Speaker 9: Kind of building off of that, a lot of the
- 11:34Speaker 9: issues that we're facing in this country are are systemic
- 11:38Speaker 9: and they are primarily based in capitalism and it would
- 11:42Speaker 9: be great if we could address gun violence and reproductive
- 11:45Speaker 9: rights and the cost of living but when i see
- 11:48Speaker 9: these things on the news and i think about it
- 11:50Speaker 9: it's like we need.
- 11:51Speaker 8: To do a complete overhaul of the system so and
- 11:54Speaker 8: i know that the government's not willing to do that
- 11:55Speaker 8: because they're profiting and we're gonna.
- 11:58Speaker 11: See at the end of the day i don't think
- 11:59Speaker 11: the government's coming to save anybody We're all self-reliant. They're
- 12:03Speaker 11: still over here trying to sit here and say, oh,
- 12:05Speaker 11: we need to give.
- 12:06Speaker 12: Money to Ukraine, give money to everybody else.
- 12:08Speaker 2: But they have.
- 12:09Speaker 12: People on the daily who are in the streets dying,
- 12:14Speaker 12: barely able to survive.
- 12:16Speaker 13: Still nothing. Majority of politics are like extreme left battling
- 12:20Speaker 13: the extreme right. And it's like majority of people fall
- 12:22Speaker 13: somewhere in between and don't have to be arguing about
- 12:25Speaker 13: every single policy that they have absolutely no say in.
- 12:29Speaker 1: I picked those because I thought they were fairly representative
- 12:32Speaker 1: of the sentiment I heard from most of these voters. Frustrated, pessimistic,
- 12:37Speaker 1: pretty cynical about politics and government. Kristen, does that track
- 12:40Speaker 1: with what you've seen and heard?
- 12:42Speaker 7: It does. And I got to say, it makes me
- 12:43Speaker 7: so sad that so many of them said, oh, yes,
- 12:46Speaker 7: upon turning 25, everything sucks. Just like side note, actually,
- 12:50Speaker 7: when you're 25, everything's amazing. When you're 40, you're going
- 12:53Speaker 7: to think that everything was amazing when you were 25.
- 12:55Speaker 1: Exactly what I thought.
- 12:57Speaker 7: Just a side note there. Don't be so down in
- 13:00Speaker 7: your mid to late 20s. But I do think that
- 13:02Speaker 7: for young people today, there's this disconnect that I find
- 13:05Speaker 7: bizarre and disheartening, which is that on the one hand, objectively,
- 13:10Speaker 7: there are lots of things that actually are really great
- 13:13Speaker 7: about being a part of humanity at this moment in time.
- 13:17Speaker 7: It is way better to be a human today than
- 13:19Speaker 7: it was 100 years ago, than it was 200 years ago.
- 13:23Speaker 7: even than it was 30 years ago. And so it just,
- 13:27Speaker 7: I feel like we are living in a moment where
- 13:30Speaker 7: there is a lot of reason why young people should
- 13:33Speaker 7: not feel as down on everything as they are. And
- 13:37Speaker 7: yet we live in, I think, a media ecosystem where
- 13:41Speaker 7: everything is fine, nothing to see here, like doesn't get
- 13:44Speaker 7: anybody to click on anything. But panic and doom and
- 13:48Speaker 7: You're being screwed. Everything's horrible. It's not your fault. The
- 13:51Speaker 7: world is coming after you like really sells this day
- 13:54Speaker 7: in age. And I worry that we have a generation
- 13:58Speaker 7: that has really fallen captive to this notion that they
- 14:01Speaker 7: are victims of something that they can't control and therefore
- 14:06Speaker 7: just go blame everybody else. Everything's terrible. They're not wrong
- 14:09Speaker 7: to think that politics is frequently awful. They're not wrong
- 14:13Speaker 7: to think that the two parties are not doing a
- 14:15Speaker 7: good job of representing an awful lot of voters in America.
- 14:18Speaker 7: I don't mean to say this to be Pollyanna-ish, but
- 14:22Speaker 7: it makes me so frustrated because I think back to
- 14:25Speaker 7: the millennial experience, right? And maybe we were optimistic in
- 14:29Speaker 7: a way that was unwarranted. And so this is maybe
- 14:31Speaker 7: the pendulum swinging back the other way. We were optimistic
- 14:34Speaker 7: and then reality came and hit us in the face.
- 14:36Speaker 7: And for Gen Z, they're going to start off really
- 14:38Speaker 7: cynical about everything and there's no way for them to
- 14:41Speaker 7: possibly be disappointed because they already think things are as
- 14:43Speaker 7: bad as they could possibly be. So it does line
- 14:48Speaker 7: up with a lot of the data that I'm seeing.
- 14:50Speaker 7: The one thing that I didn't hear in those clips,
- 14:53Speaker 7: but I'm curious, John, if you have heard any of
- 14:55Speaker 7: this as well, is that for a lot of young people,
- 14:57Speaker 7: they think everything is terrible and they don't trust government
- 15:01Speaker 7: or today's current politicians to fix it. But they actually
- 15:05Speaker 7: have quite a lot of confidence in their own generation
- 15:07Speaker 7: to fix it. So it's not like they think everything
- 15:09Speaker 7: is going to be terrible forever. They just think it's
- 15:12Speaker 7: going to be terrible until their cohort is in charge.
- 15:15Speaker 5: And they do believe in the power of government to
- 15:18Speaker 5: solve those challenges. They distrust government. They distrust the current government.
- 15:23Speaker 5: But they do think that government and a robust government
- 15:27Speaker 5: should have a responsibility to address some of these underlying challenges.
- 15:31Speaker 5: systemic issues that you heard in those clips.
- 15:33Speaker 1: John, I was just going to ask you, like, this
- 15:35Speaker 1: does seem, when I hear these voters, it seems like
- 15:37Speaker 1: a particular challenge for the party that wants people to
- 15:41Speaker 1: believe that government can be a force for good and
- 15:44Speaker 1: for progress, doesn't it?
- 15:46Speaker 5: Well, that is, I think, is one of the questions,
- 15:49Speaker 5: one of the main questions I have about this entire electorate,
- 15:52Speaker 5: which is, as Krista knows, that young people generally vote.
- 15:56Speaker 4: When they can see the difference that voting makes, right? Right.
- 15:59Speaker 5: For themselves, for the communities, for the nation. And where
- 16:02Speaker 5: they're not able to connect those dots, they are less
- 16:05Speaker 5: likely to be open to messages from either candidate and
- 16:08Speaker 5: certainly less likely to vote and to participate.
- 16:12Speaker 4: And the big disconnect I think we see kind.
- 16:14Speaker 5: Of in this cycle is I would argue that no
- 16:18Speaker 5: administration has been more youth forward in terms of their
- 16:23Speaker 5: agenda as the Biden-Harris administration. I think when I ask
- 16:27Speaker 5: young people, Four years ago, why are you going to vote?
- 16:30Speaker 5: Or now, why did you vote?
- 16:31Speaker 4: I hear climate. I hear gun violence a lot. I
- 16:34Speaker 4: hear economic issues, specifically student loan forgiveness.
- 16:37Speaker 5: All of those things, all of these three things have
- 16:39Speaker 5: been delivered in historic fashion, yet they're not able to
- 16:45Speaker 5: see that.
- 16:45Speaker 4: They're not able to feel that.
- 16:47Speaker 5: And therefore, I think skepticism grows. It's always been a
- 16:50Speaker 5: challenge with younger people because when you're older, you're I
- 16:53Speaker 5: can measure we all have money in the 401k, in
- 16:56Speaker 5: our 401k or in the stock market. You know, older
- 17:00Speaker 5: voters know that their prescription drug coverage will be cost.
- 17:03Speaker 5: Those are tangible differences that government make. For younger people,
- 17:07Speaker 5: it's hard to measure the day-to-day impact of climate, you know,
- 17:09Speaker 5: or gun violence prevention, those sorts of things.
- 17:11Speaker 4: And I think that adds to.
- 17:13Speaker 5: The cynicism and one of the more challenges we have
- 17:15Speaker 5: to connect with them.
- 17:31Speaker 1: Kristen, I am prone to think and have argued that
- 17:35Speaker 1: a lot of the doomerism is a result of the
- 17:39Speaker 1: media information environment that this generation is growing up in. And,
- 17:43Speaker 1: you know, we're millennials, like we went through 9-11 and
- 17:47Speaker 1: the Great Recession, right? So we had our share of
- 17:49Speaker 1: problems too. You know, and then I hear from Gen Z,
- 17:52Speaker 1: you know, people in Gen Z who say, well, no, no,
- 17:55Speaker 1: we're dealing, it's not just the media that we're watching.
- 17:58Speaker 1: We're dealing with these terrible problems. Don't just blame the
- 18:02Speaker 1: media or TikTok or anything else. And I do wonder
- 18:05Speaker 1: if it's really the media environment, would that mean that
- 18:10Speaker 1: young people who aren't as tuned into politics, who don't
- 18:12Speaker 1: consume as much media, would they be more Hopeful. Would
- 18:16Speaker 1: they be less less cynical and pessimistic? Have you guys
- 18:19Speaker 1: seen that at all in terms of like the split
- 18:22Speaker 1: between very engaged young voters and not so engaged young voters?
- 18:26Speaker 7: Well, what I think is interesting about this generation, too,
- 18:29Speaker 7: is that even I'm going to rewind the clock for
- 18:33Speaker 7: me back to when I was that age. because I
- 18:37Speaker 7: am an old millennial. This is like a real misconception
- 18:41Speaker 7: that I find a lot of people have. They think
- 18:43Speaker 7: millennials are young. No, no, we're like ancient at this point.
- 18:46Speaker 7: But that being interested in current events is now, it
- 18:55Speaker 7: is much more the norm. It is much like being
- 18:59Speaker 7: tuned in That does not mean watching hours of cable
- 19:03Speaker 7: news each week. That's not what I mean. But it
- 19:08Speaker 7: is no longer just the province of like the kids
- 19:10Speaker 7: on the debate team. That it is the thing that
- 19:13Speaker 7: like the most popular influencers are talking about when something
- 19:17Speaker 7: big happens like the Dobbs decision. Like the influence of
- 19:22Speaker 7: politics and discourse around issues is not just siloed off
- 19:27Speaker 7: into politics brain anymore. And I think that explains a
- 19:33Speaker 7: lot of things. I think it explains a lot of
- 19:35Speaker 7: why Gen Zers are driving their boomer bosses crazy by
- 19:39Speaker 7: wanting their companies to take stands on political issues, that
- 19:42Speaker 7: for an older generation, there was a little bit more
- 19:44Speaker 7: of a siloing of your political views are over here.
- 19:48Speaker 7: Here's what I do for my job. Here's my family.
- 19:50Speaker 7: Here's my church. And like those walls are all coming
- 19:52Speaker 7: down for a younger generation that the same person they
- 19:57Speaker 7: are getting beauty tips from is 30 seconds later telling
- 20:01Speaker 7: them your reproductive rights are under assault. That those worlds
- 20:05Speaker 7: have blended in such a way that I actually don't
- 20:08Speaker 7: necessarily differentiate like young people who are less tuned in
- 20:12Speaker 7: because it's like less tuned in to what? Somebody who
- 20:14Speaker 7: is not paying attention to political podcasts is probably following
- 20:18Speaker 7: sports news or beauty influencers. And you can get political
- 20:23Speaker 7: news that way in a way that you probably weren't
- 20:25Speaker 7: 20 or 30 years ago.
- 20:27Speaker 1: That's fascinating. I hadn't thought about that.
- 20:29Speaker 8: All right.
- 20:29Speaker 1: So just about every poll shows that the economy is
- 20:32Speaker 1: the top issue for young voters as it is for
- 20:34Speaker 1: all voters. This is especially true for concerns about affordability,
- 20:38Speaker 1: cost of living. I will say, like, the sense of
- 20:41Speaker 1: frustration and hopelessness feels more acute with young voters than
- 20:46Speaker 1: with a lot of the other voters I've heard. And
- 20:49Speaker 1: it came up in every single focus group and town
- 20:52Speaker 1: hall that John sent us. Columbus, Phoenix, Irvine, Atlanta, and Detroit.
- 20:57Speaker 1: Let's listen.
- 20:58Speaker 14: For example, I'm paying $ 2, 000 for a two-bedroom apartment to rent.
- 21:04Speaker 14: And that would cover their mortgage on like a mansion
- 21:07Speaker 14: when they were younger.
- 21:09Speaker 15: I spent four years at school and I've been applying
- 21:11Speaker 15: for jobs for the last four months. It's been hard
- 21:14Speaker 15: finding places.
- 21:15Speaker 1: A lot of places don't want to email you back.
- 21:17Speaker 15: And it doesn't give me much hope after I just
- 21:20Speaker 15: spent four years in college trying to work hard for
- 21:23Speaker 15: this degree. And can't even get an email back saying, sorry,
- 21:26Speaker 15: we recommend somebody else.
- 21:28Speaker 8: It seems often people, older people don't understand how expensive
- 21:32Speaker 8: everything has gotten.
- 21:33Speaker 10: Four years younger.
- 21:34Speaker 8: I worked really hard to move into like a more
- 21:37Speaker 8: middle class lifestyle and that immediately was pushed into a
- 21:40Speaker 8: lower class lifestyle.
- 21:41Speaker 10: From the cost of living.
- 21:42Speaker 12: A lot of younger people pick up a lot of
- 21:44Speaker 12: jobs and lose a lot of jobs very quickly and
- 21:48Speaker 12: a lot of older people will feel like that's unprofessional
- 21:50Speaker 12: that you may get a job quick, get another job
- 21:52Speaker 12: quick but the rate we going and the pay we
- 21:55Speaker 12: making is you don't have an option to stay where
- 21:57Speaker 12: you're not getting what you deserve or what you should get.
- 22:01Speaker 12: So they don't understand the severity of staying in a
- 22:04Speaker 12: place where you're not making enough money to survive, let
- 22:06Speaker 12: alone they feel like you should overwork yourself and become
- 22:08Speaker 12: a slave to your job so you can make bare minimum.
- 22:12Speaker 16: I'm not looking to buy a house right now, but
- 22:15Speaker 16: it is something I would like to do one day.
- 22:17Speaker 16: And it feels like that goal just gets further and
- 22:21Speaker 16: further away. Like by the time that you get to
- 22:23Speaker 16: where you want to be, that benchmark has moved up again.
- 22:27Speaker 1: Now, you look at economic statistics and see that The
- 22:31Speaker 1: unemployment rate is very low for young people. Inflation has
- 22:34Speaker 1: come down. The data doesn't seem to suggest that young
- 22:38Speaker 1: voters are doing worse than other generations. So I'm curious, like,
- 22:44Speaker 1: have you guys heard similar economic angst from millennials or
- 22:48Speaker 1: Gen X when they were this age or something different
- 22:51Speaker 1: happening with Gen Z? John?
- 22:54Speaker 4: This is different. This is different.
- 22:56Speaker 5: You know, John and Kristen, I spend probably 20 summers,
- 23:00Speaker 5: you know, doing similar sorts of town halls and focus
- 23:04Speaker 5: groups from the advent of the Harvard Youth Poll. And
- 23:09Speaker 5: like I found the vibe in the rooms in 2017
- 23:14Speaker 5: different when Trump was in office in terms of the
- 23:16Speaker 5: fear and the anxiety and the concern, I'm hearing the
- 23:19Speaker 5: same thing but in the economic perspective that I had
- 23:24Speaker 5: never heard of before. And in addition to that, though,
- 23:30Speaker 5: The other thing, I'd be interested in Kristen's perspective. The
- 23:33Speaker 5: other thing which I'd never heard or seen before is
- 23:36Speaker 5: there's barely a focus group or a town hall. The
- 23:39Speaker 5: town halls, I'm talking about 24, 25, 30 people that
- 23:42Speaker 5: I can assemble where a member or two had not
- 23:46Speaker 5: already been homeless, feel like they're on the verge.
- 23:48Speaker 4: Of homeless, you know, or something similar.
- 23:51Speaker 5: So it's like the qualitative experience of the anxiety, which
- 23:55Speaker 5: I think some context could be helpful, right, from all
- 23:58Speaker 5: of us, one. But there is real, you know, kind
- 24:01Speaker 5: of a connection to being without a home at such
- 24:04Speaker 5: a young age that I think that we need to
- 24:06Speaker 5: listen to and take seriously.
- 24:09Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say that when I have done these
- 24:11Speaker 1: focus groups too, like the one issue that relates to
- 24:15Speaker 1: cost of living that comes up more than anything else
- 24:17Speaker 1: is housing. And I do think you can say that like,
- 24:20Speaker 1: economic statistics are what they are, but housing especially, both
- 24:23Speaker 1: rent and mortgage and with interest rates where they are,
- 24:26Speaker 1: that is much different than it has been. But Kristen,
- 24:30Speaker 1: what do you think? What have you been hearing?
- 24:32Speaker 7: Yeah, I would say that what I am hearing, the
- 24:35Speaker 7: Gen Z angst compared to, say, the millennial angst, they
- 24:38Speaker 7: are not twins, but they are cousins. For the millennial angst,
- 24:43Speaker 7: it was acute concern about the ability to get a
- 24:47Speaker 7: job that really was backed up by the economic data
- 24:50Speaker 7: at the time. For millennials, that was the, we were
- 24:55Speaker 7: the generation where a lot of the, hey, you know what,
- 24:58Speaker 7: if you want to set yourself up well in life,
- 25:00Speaker 7: what you need to do is set aside 10% into
- 25:03Speaker 7: your retirement fund and you need to buy a house
- 25:06Speaker 7: and you need to get married and you need to
- 25:07Speaker 7: go to college and get a degree. And we were
- 25:10Speaker 7: the generation that started to go, are you sure about
- 25:13Speaker 7: all that? Because the housing market just collapsed and I
- 25:16Speaker 7: do have a college degree and I can't really get
- 25:18Speaker 7: a good job. And so our generation was more the
- 25:21Speaker 7: one where all of these things that we were told
- 25:23Speaker 7: we were supposed to do, we started to go, I'm
- 25:26Speaker 7: not so sure about that. Gen Z is just kind
- 25:28Speaker 7: of outright rejecting them from the beginning and saying, like,
- 25:30Speaker 7: I see through this facade. I'm not interested in participating
- 25:33Speaker 7: in this farce. And that's where their anxiety is coming out.
- 25:37Speaker 7: But so take something like housing. For the millennial generation, generation,
- 25:41Speaker 7: the problem would have been that the economy is so
- 25:43Speaker 7: bad and you can't get a job that pays enough
- 25:46Speaker 7: to save up enough for the deposit. Where for Gen Z,
- 25:51Speaker 7: now we're in a world where it's harder than ever to, say,
- 25:53Speaker 7: qualify for a mortgage because they've now changed what it
- 25:56Speaker 7: takes to do that. The interest rates are going to
- 25:58Speaker 7: be higher. So they may have a very different job environment,
- 26:02Speaker 7: wage environment. but at the same time, if they're having
- 26:06Speaker 7: to spend it all on groceries, then it's hard to
- 26:08Speaker 7: save it up anyways to be able to pay for
- 26:10Speaker 7: that down payment. And so it's, they are not identical,
- 26:14Speaker 7: but they are similar. I do think that most young
- 26:17Speaker 7: people come into adulthood and find that being an adult
- 26:21Speaker 7: is very hard, is very challenging. And you're suddenly faced
- 26:24Speaker 7: with all sorts of things that maybe the school system
- 26:27Speaker 7: or life has not prepared you for adequately when you
- 26:29Speaker 7: get there. And you're right to be pretty ticked off
- 26:31Speaker 7: about that. I've I'm not trying to necessarily walk back
- 26:34Speaker 7: my earlier dismissal of young people's angst, but to say
- 26:38Speaker 7: that if you are 25 and you are frustrated that
- 26:43Speaker 7: you cannot afford a home, you're not wrong to be
- 26:47Speaker 7: frustrated that you cannot afford a home. If you are
- 26:49Speaker 7: 25 and you have a ton of student loan debt
- 26:51Speaker 7: and a degree that you think is not paying off,
- 26:53Speaker 7: you're not wrong to be upset about that. But I
- 26:56Speaker 7: do also think that it's important to keep in mind
- 27:00Speaker 7: what is the median experience, right? So college for student
- 27:04Speaker 7: loan debt. John, I'd be curious for your take on this.
- 27:06Speaker 7: I hear that as a concern amongst political elites a lot.
- 27:11Speaker 7: Oh my goodness, this is going to be something huge
- 27:12Speaker 7: that drives young voters. But a majority of young people
- 27:16Speaker 7: don't necessarily have a four-year degree, or that's not part
- 27:19Speaker 7: of their life plan anyways. And so I also do
- 27:21Speaker 7: wonder how much some of this anxiety is rooted in
- 27:26Speaker 7: the attention that gets paid to the voices of those
- 27:28Speaker 7: who want to attend expensive colleges or get an apartment
- 27:32Speaker 7: in an expensive urban area versus kind of the median
- 27:35Speaker 7: Gen Z experience, which may not look like that.
- 27:38Speaker 1: John, what do you think?
- 27:39Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that, I think a couple of things,
- 27:42Speaker 5: one of which is the most anxiety I hear is
- 27:46Speaker 5: actually from, you know, the two clips that stand out
- 27:50Speaker 5: to me, one's from Detroit and one was from Columbus,
- 27:52Speaker 5: where people After they graduated college or community college, we're expecting, quote, that,
- 27:57Speaker 5: you know, working class or middle class lifestyle. And they're
- 28:00Speaker 5: already saying they're falling behind and may never be able
- 28:03Speaker 5: to kind of to catch up. And I think a
- 28:07Speaker 5: lot of it is just like the cost of even
- 28:10Speaker 5: rental income, right? So I think a lot of it isn't,
- 28:14Speaker 5: I think it is that kind of lived experience. And
- 28:16Speaker 5: the one word that kind of connects all this for
- 28:19Speaker 5: me is stability. Younger people are looking for some place
- 28:24Speaker 5: where they can find some stability. There is no stability
- 28:27Speaker 5: in the political system today. There is no stability when
- 28:31Speaker 5: we look at where the world is right now. And
- 28:33Speaker 5: there's very little stability in their own home or in
- 28:36Speaker 5: their neighborhood. And that is, I think, those three combinations,
- 28:39Speaker 5: those three things in combination.
- 28:41Speaker 4: Is what's really driving a lot of anxiety and angst.
- 28:44Speaker 4: And I want to hear what Kristen's perspective is on this.
- 28:48Speaker 5: But I would throw out like, hey, you know, what
- 28:51Speaker 5: do you think the stock market, when was the last
- 28:53Speaker 5: time the stock market had a record?
- 28:55Speaker 4: You know, yesterday.
- 28:56Speaker 5: You know, I can't convince someone that their life is
- 28:58Speaker 5: getting better even though the stock market is getting better
- 29:01Speaker 5: or even the unemployment rate. It's how they're feeling it
- 29:04Speaker 5: and perceiving it at this moment in this very, you know,
- 29:08Speaker 5: young part of their overall, hopefully.
- 29:10Speaker 4: Adult experience.
- 29:12Speaker 7: So I want to pick up on what you said
- 29:14Speaker 7: about stability because in general, I think that this axis
- 29:18Speaker 7: of chaos versus stability is going to be totally decisive
- 29:22Speaker 7: in this election. I think that voters overall are craving
- 29:26Speaker 7: stability in what they feel has been a very chaotic
- 29:29Speaker 7: last eight to 10 years of American life. At the
- 29:33Speaker 7: same time, I struggle with how to square that with
- 29:37Speaker 7: some of the young people whose voices we just heard
- 29:40Speaker 7: in those clips that you played, where they're saying, I
- 29:42Speaker 7: want to tear down the system. And to bring it
- 29:46Speaker 7: back to the 2024 election, that's exactly the kind of
- 29:49Speaker 7: rhetoric you would hear from someone who was a low
- 29:51Speaker 7: engagement voter who decided to turn out in 2016 for
- 29:54Speaker 7: Donald Trump and who I think in 2024 is susceptible
- 30:00Speaker 7: to turning out for Donald Trump because they still want
- 30:03Speaker 7: that wrecking ball style approach. And maybe they're RFK Jr.
- 30:09Speaker 7: curious or what have you. But I think what's so
- 30:11Speaker 7: interesting about young voters is that on the one hand,
- 30:14Speaker 7: I agree that they would like some ability to, you know,
- 30:18Speaker 7: feel like they have financial security, to feel like they
- 30:21Speaker 7: have housing security and those sorts of things. But aren't
- 30:25Speaker 7: they also the generation the most likely to say, I
- 30:28Speaker 7: want to blow things up?
- 30:29Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think it's fascinating that we're talking about
- 30:33Speaker 1: sort of the two candidates and the two parties, and
- 30:35Speaker 1: we're talking about it on the axis of chaos versus stability,
- 30:39Speaker 1: which I tend to agree with, or tear it all
- 30:42Speaker 1: down or keep the system we have. And it does
- 30:45Speaker 1: seem like the traditional system maybe pre-Trump Republican message that
- 30:50Speaker 1: government should, you know, get out of the way would
- 30:52Speaker 1: not necessarily be attractive to these voters. But it also
- 30:55Speaker 1: seems like they're skeptical that Democrats will be able to
- 30:58Speaker 1: actually deliver on their promises to help make life more affordable.
- 31:02Speaker 1: So sort of where does that leave both parties in
- 31:05Speaker 1: terms of, like, do you guys think there are economic
- 31:08Speaker 1: messages that would resonate with young people that aren't just
- 31:12Speaker 1: I'm going to tear it down. I'm not going to
- 31:14Speaker 1: tear it down. I'm going to keep things the way
- 31:15Speaker 1: they are. I'm going to change things. Do they have
- 31:17Speaker 1: any sense of an economic message that's appealing to them?
- 31:21Speaker 4: John?
- 31:22Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 31:22Speaker 4: The first time.
- 31:25Speaker 5: I conducted a survey many years ago when I was
- 31:28Speaker 5: asking questions about capitalism, socialism, and other things, when I
- 31:31Speaker 5: found a majority essentially rejected capitalism, I learned very quickly
- 31:36Speaker 5: through follow-up focus groups that it wasn't a rejection of
- 31:39Speaker 5: the system itself. It was essentially a rejection of how
- 31:42Speaker 5: it was being practiced. In fact, when I share the
- 31:46Speaker 5: definition in subsequent surveys, support for capitalism went up. What
- 31:52Speaker 5: I have continued to hear is that when I challenge
- 31:55Speaker 5: young people to tell me what's better, they would describe
- 31:58Speaker 5: to me a combination of a Teddy Roosevelt and an FDR,
- 32:02Speaker 5: kind of a a new deal in a square deal,
- 32:05Speaker 5: something that provided some basic infrastructure, social infrastructure one, but
- 32:10Speaker 5: also something that was big enough to break up monopolies
- 32:14Speaker 5: and those sorts of things, give the regular person kind.
- 32:17Speaker 4: Of an opportunity.
- 32:18Speaker 5: So I think it's a more modern version of capitalism
- 32:20Speaker 5: is what younger people are asking for. But I always
- 32:24Speaker 5: love spending time with Kristen because I learn so many things.
- 32:26Speaker 5: So when I think about the chaos versus stability, it's
- 32:29Speaker 5: really kind of how many different axes are there, right?
- 32:32Speaker 5: Are we talking economics? Because that tends to favor Trump.
- 32:35Speaker 5: Are we talking kind of political and democratic? That would
- 32:38Speaker 5: tend to favor Biden, I would argue, right? So it's
- 32:41Speaker 5: just not chaos versus stability is really kind of what
- 32:44Speaker 5: are the axes on that we're also looking at, the
- 32:47Speaker 5: second axes.
- 32:48Speaker 4: So fascinating.
- 32:49Speaker 1: Christian, what do you think? Because it's interesting, the Republican
- 32:52Speaker 1: Party's in a spot right now where policy-wise, it seems still,
- 32:57Speaker 1: at least Republicans in Congress, are still wedded to like
- 33:00Speaker 1: a tax cut deregulation agenda. And then there's the Trump
- 33:04Speaker 1: style of politics, which seems to be like, you know,
- 33:08Speaker 1: economic populism as a style more than actual policies. But like,
- 33:14Speaker 1: how do you see that?
- 33:17Speaker 7: I think that a big part of the reason why
- 33:19Speaker 7: you have seen more young people at least express an
- 33:24Speaker 7: openness to someone like Donald Trump compared to, say, Mitt Romney,
- 33:28Speaker 7: 12 years ago, is in part that economic populist thread.
- 33:33Speaker 7: Because I think for a lot of young people, their
- 33:36Speaker 7: core concern with the financial, with our economic system, is
- 33:40Speaker 7: a sense of fairness. Which is not to say that
- 33:42Speaker 7: they think that fairness means everybody gives 100% to the
- 33:45Speaker 7: state and the state allocates it accordingly. Actual centrally planned
- 33:51Speaker 7: economy is not necessarily what they're thinking. So I agree
- 33:53Speaker 7: with John on that. A lot of young people who
- 33:55Speaker 7: say they want to tear down the capitalist system, when
- 33:57Speaker 7: you ask them to describe their ideal system, it is
- 34:00Speaker 7: not the Soviet Union. It is like Scandinavia. At the
- 34:07Speaker 7: same time, I think that for Republicans, you know, there
- 34:11Speaker 7: was a moment when kind of entrepreneurship and those sorts
- 34:16Speaker 7: of things, I thought there was a way for that
- 34:18Speaker 7: to be message to young people, in part because of,
- 34:22Speaker 7: you know, you heard some of those respondents in the
- 34:23Speaker 7: focus groups talking about their side jobs or, you know,
- 34:28Speaker 7: they're the ones that have kind of struck out on
- 34:29Speaker 7: their own. I had thought for a while that that
- 34:32Speaker 7: entrepreneurship message would have resonance, but I have since come
- 34:36Speaker 7: to think it has some limitations, in part for the
- 34:38Speaker 7: same thing that I said about the college degrees and
- 34:41Speaker 7: the housing. Like, to what extent is entrepreneurship actually a
- 34:44Speaker 7: dream of a lot of young people versus the a
- 34:47Speaker 7: dream of a small number of very vocal young people
- 34:50Speaker 7: who maybe take up disproportionate space in our minds. And
- 34:53Speaker 7: so for Republicans right now, I think the idea that
- 34:57Speaker 7: the government is bad at allocating resources, the idea that
- 35:01Speaker 7: the government is bad at making decisions about things is
- 35:05Speaker 7: still resonant. I think you're seeing some interesting pushback among
- 35:08Speaker 7: certain segments of young people on topics like crypto, for instance,
- 35:11Speaker 7: where they tend to like it more and they feel
- 35:13Speaker 7: like government's going to screw it up if government gets
- 35:15Speaker 7: more involved. That's just one little piece of where I
- 35:18Speaker 7: do still think there is a I don't want the
- 35:20Speaker 7: government controlling everything strain among this generation. But that's not
- 35:24Speaker 7: the same as, gee, I want to lower corporate tax
- 35:27Speaker 7: rates so that we can be competitive with the rest
- 35:28Speaker 7: of the world. Like that's not those are not the
- 35:30Speaker 7: same message.
- 35:32Speaker 1: So we mentioned this briefly, but one economic issue that
- 35:36Speaker 1: keeps coming up is student debt, but also just the
- 35:39Speaker 1: financial value of a college education more broadly. And here's
- 35:43Speaker 1: what some of these voters said about that.
- 35:46Speaker 8: College was my biggest regret, honestly.
- 35:48Speaker 11: Oh, really?
- 35:50Speaker 12: I'm in debt for it and I don't even work
- 35:52Speaker 12: when I went to college.
- 35:53Speaker 6: You know, you graduated with a college degree. You can't
- 35:56Speaker 6: afford a house, a car, two kids, you know? But
- 36:00Speaker 6: now people with, like, a bachelor, you know, they can
- 36:03Speaker 6: no longer do that. Or, you know, then you have
- 36:06Speaker 6: to reach, like, the next step, like, master degree. Now
- 36:08Speaker 6: everyone get a master degree. So, like, the next one
- 36:11Speaker 6: would be, like... So I feel like just, like, not
- 36:13Speaker 6: compensate anymore.
- 36:16Speaker 17: As debt, one form or another, they're living with.
- 36:19Speaker 8: Everybody?
- 36:20Speaker 7: Student debt.
- 36:22Speaker 8: Student debt? Yeah.
- 36:23Speaker 15: How many people here.
- 36:25Speaker 17: Have student debt?
- 36:28Speaker 1: So everyone said they, or I think most people in
- 36:31Speaker 1: that group said they had student debt. You know, as
- 36:34Speaker 1: Kristen mentioned, John, like the polling among all voters on
- 36:37Speaker 1: student debt relief is mixed, though young voters tend to
- 36:41Speaker 1: be more supportive of Is anyone, by the way, giving
- 36:45Speaker 1: President Biden credit for any of the student debt that
- 36:49Speaker 1: he has forgiven on his own in any of your
- 36:51Speaker 1: focus groups? Or is that just no one knows about that?
- 36:55Speaker 4: Very few.
- 36:55Speaker 5: So most of those focus groups, by the way, are
- 36:59Speaker 5: younger people. And we really wanted to see whether they
- 37:02Speaker 5: would vote or not. So that was essentially the criteria
- 37:06Speaker 5: for the demographics that we selected for.
- 37:10Speaker 4: It's not, and very few.
- 37:11Speaker 5: There are some people who had a family member who
- 37:14Speaker 5: relieved some student debt. Having said that, when I talk
- 37:17Speaker 5: to people in their 30s and their 40s, for example,
- 37:21Speaker 5: who have had some student debt relieved, they represent some
- 37:27Speaker 5: of the more emotional experiences I've ever had conducting research
- 37:32Speaker 5: like this in several decades. When you can hear you know, from,
- 37:37Speaker 5: you know, a 45 or 50 year old African American
- 37:40Speaker 5: woman who for the first time in her family's history
- 37:43Speaker 5: can now afford a house because of the debt relief, right?
- 37:48Speaker 5: Or it doesn't have to make a choice between, you know,
- 37:51Speaker 5: between saving for a child's education versus the rents, etc.
- 37:55Speaker 5: So there are incredible numbers of very moving stories about
- 38:00Speaker 5: the importance, point of role of this policy. The fact
- 38:03Speaker 5: is we have $ 150 billion plus relieved. That's almost 20%,
- 38:07Speaker 5: I think, of the Pentagon budget. And very few young
- 38:10Speaker 5: people appreciate that. Very few young people appreciate the fact
- 38:13Speaker 5: that Joe Biden promised it in 2020. And despite the
- 38:17Speaker 5: fact what the Supreme Court did, it has been delivered
- 38:19Speaker 5: to soon.
- 38:20Speaker 4: To be, I think, 10 million young people.
- 38:38Speaker 1: Well, Kristen, you mentioned this, but one thing I kept
- 38:40Speaker 1: hearing in these focus groups is these young people questioning
- 38:44Speaker 1: the value of a college education. And so, yes, they're
- 38:48Speaker 1: upset and burdened by student debt, but they're also just like,
- 38:51Speaker 1: why did I do this? I did not get a
- 38:53Speaker 1: job that can keep me financially stable, even though I
- 38:57Speaker 1: paid all this money for college. And it does seem
- 38:59Speaker 1: somewhat seismic to me that questioning the very value of
- 39:03Speaker 1: a college education and that it can get you ahead
- 39:05Speaker 1: in life is sort of characteristic of people's opinions these days.
- 39:11Speaker 1: And I feel like it hasn't been like that in
- 39:12Speaker 1: the past.
- 39:14Speaker 7: Well, and I think it is rooted in the idea
- 39:17Speaker 7: that what is the purpose of getting a four-year degree, right?
- 39:22Speaker 7: And how has that question changed over the last 20, 30,
- 39:26Speaker 7: 40 years? Why did our parents' or grandparents' generation think
- 39:30Speaker 7: going and getting a bachelor's degree was important? That I
- 39:33Speaker 7: think especially after the Great Recession, there was this idea
- 39:37Speaker 7: that the job market is terrible for young people. In
- 39:40Speaker 7: order to get ahead, you have got to be extra
- 39:44Speaker 7: credentialed in order to set yourself apart. And so you
- 39:47Speaker 7: saw this real emphasis and I think not misguided to say, hey,
- 39:53Speaker 7: we should make sure that every student is on track
- 39:55Speaker 7: to where if they want to choose to get a
- 39:56Speaker 7: college degree, they've been prepared by the K-12 system to
- 39:59Speaker 7: do so. But the problem is, one, you have a
- 40:01Speaker 7: K-12 system that hasn't really prepared a lot of them
- 40:03Speaker 7: to do so. So they get to college and completing
- 40:06Speaker 7: in four years is going to be a challenge because
- 40:08Speaker 7: they've been so let down by the system that got
- 40:09Speaker 7: them there. Then they get to college and there's What
- 40:13Speaker 7: is the incentive of the college? Is the incentive of
- 40:15Speaker 7: the college to get them out in four years and
- 40:18Speaker 7: send them on their merry way? And I think we've
- 40:20Speaker 7: just had this misalignment of incentives that has led to
- 40:25Speaker 7: a generation saying, hey, I came and I got this
- 40:28Speaker 7: degree thinking it was going to do X, Y and Z.
- 40:31Speaker 7: And it's not clear to me that it's yielding that.
- 40:35Speaker 7: So what was this all for? And, you know, if
- 40:37Speaker 7: you talk to folks that work at colleges and universities,
- 40:39Speaker 7: they'll tell you, well, the value of the degree is
- 40:42Speaker 7: not just the dollars and cents that you are getting
- 40:44Speaker 7: in your paycheck. It's that you find yourself. It's that
- 40:47Speaker 7: you grow intellectually. It is in all of those things.
- 40:50Speaker 7: And that may all be true, but gosh, it costs
- 40:52Speaker 7: an awful lot of money to– become an adult and
- 40:56Speaker 7: find yourself and plenty of people become an adult and
- 40:58Speaker 7: find themselves and don't wind up in severe debt doing so.
- 41:01Speaker 7: And so I think this is a real crisis moment
- 41:04Speaker 7: for the higher education world where because the price of
- 41:09Speaker 7: their product has gone up so much, but the return
- 41:12Speaker 7: on that investment feels so opaque to people that I
- 41:16Speaker 7: think this is a crisis moment for the higher education world.
- 41:19Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it certainly seems like that. And the degree
- 41:22Speaker 1: doesn't matter as much if you then can't afford rent
- 41:26Speaker 1: or mortgage after you leave college and get a job, right?
- 41:31Speaker 1: So even though economic concerns top the list for young people,
- 41:34Speaker 1: this is a group of voters who feel very strongly
- 41:36Speaker 1: about what they see as an attack on their rights
- 41:39Speaker 1: and freedoms. Here's some young people from Atlanta talking about that.
- 41:43Speaker 4: What kinds of rights do you think are at risk
- 41:46Speaker 4: right now in this country?
- 41:48Speaker 9: Freedom of speech.
- 41:49Speaker 4: Freedom of speech.
- 41:50Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 41:50Speaker 4: Do you guys agree with that? I agree with that.
- 41:54Speaker 9: Autonomy.
- 41:56Speaker 8: Okay.
- 41:57Speaker 1: I know we talked about it earlier. I don't know
- 41:58Speaker 1: if it's a right, but like you said earlier, you're
- 42:00Speaker 1: a generation.
- 42:01Speaker 16: Like I need your access to college.
- 42:03Speaker 6: Yeah. You know? Yeah.
- 42:04Speaker 4: Right to an education if you work for it. Right.
- 42:07Speaker 8: Right?
- 42:07Speaker 4: Is that a right that you feel like is like
- 42:09Speaker 4: under attack?
- 42:10Speaker 11: Sure.
- 42:10Speaker 8: Yeah.
- 42:10Speaker 13: I mean, you could definitely say reproductive rights because a
- 42:14Speaker 13: girl can't get an abortion now.
- 42:16Speaker 8: In some states in Georgia under attack in a lot.
- 42:18Speaker 15: Of states yeah I think that's crazy and I'm a
- 42:21Speaker 15: Republican and I think that is crazy.
- 42:24Speaker 18: I have endometriosis and a lot of health issues concerning
- 42:29Speaker 18: my reproductive system and some of the medications that I
- 42:31Speaker 18: have to be on and different things like that and
- 42:34Speaker 18: the possibility of having a risky pregnancy and not being
- 42:38Speaker 18: able to get the health care I needed is a
- 42:43Speaker 18: big right that I feel like.
- 42:44Speaker 11: I've lost Yeah, I would say speech really comes to mind,
- 42:48Speaker 11: freedom of speech. You know, I am Muslim, so it's,
- 42:51Speaker 11: you know, seeing kind of all these states on the
- 42:54Speaker 11: Israel-Palestine border, I mean, it hits home in some levels.
- 42:59Speaker 8: So, I mean, just kind of seeing how, you know,
- 43:02Speaker 8: the police can arrest so many people, you know, just
- 43:05Speaker 8: for protesting, seeing how corporations and people can take action.
- 43:09Speaker 1: So, John, polls show that young voters are overwhelmingly pro-choice, um,
- 43:14Speaker 1: and lists abortion as one of their top issues. The
- 43:17Speaker 1: open question is to what extent the issue will determine
- 43:20Speaker 1: their vote and whether they believe Biden will be able
- 43:23Speaker 1: to protect abortion access or even that Trump will further
- 43:28Speaker 1: restrict abortion access. Uh, what are you hearing?
- 43:32Speaker 5: So I think a couple of things on this, one
- 43:33Speaker 5: of which is, I think there's a large number of voters,
- 43:37Speaker 5: younger voters who don't necessarily understand or can't really see
- 43:42Speaker 5: the difference in their lives. based upon who the president
- 43:45Speaker 5: is in four years, even on these issues, number one, right?
- 43:47Speaker 5: So that's a very, very kind of important thing to
- 43:50Speaker 5: kind of, I think, appreciate that often the folks like
- 43:54Speaker 5: ourselves who spend a lot of time thinking, talking about
- 43:56Speaker 5: these issues don't always hear. The issue of rights, I
- 43:59Speaker 5: wasn't looking for rights, right? I'm asking people, you know,
- 44:01Speaker 5: what keeps people up at night, right? What are they
- 44:04Speaker 5: concerned about? And I think, and this is, my sense
- 44:08Speaker 5: is that's how the Biden campaign, you know, kind of
- 44:10Speaker 5: rolled out its announcement is around, there's a series of rights.
- 44:14Speaker 5: And I think the definition of what is a basic
- 44:17Speaker 5: right to Gen Z is different than the way in
- 44:19Speaker 5: which my generation, Gen X thought of it, right?
- 44:21Speaker 4: The right to breathe clean air and drink clean water.
- 44:24Speaker 5: The right to a K through 12 education without being concerned.
- 44:28Speaker 4: About a shooter coming in. That's a right. The right
- 44:30Speaker 4: to access healthcare.
- 44:32Speaker 5: So I think this generation, obviously reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights,
- 44:36Speaker 5: but also the right to feel comfortable sharing your views,
- 44:39Speaker 5: you know, in a public or a private spot. So
- 44:42Speaker 5: I think this idea of rights is something that is resonant,
- 44:46Speaker 5: that can connect a lot of the four or five
- 44:50Speaker 5: issues that we see in the top of these polls
- 44:52Speaker 5: quite a bit. And the degree to which I think
- 44:56Speaker 5: the Biden campaign can do that, I think that will
- 44:57Speaker 5: be helpful for his success to kind of motivate some
- 45:00Speaker 5: people to talk about the stability versus the chaos that
- 45:05Speaker 5: Kristen talked about earlier.
- 45:06Speaker 1: Kristen, Republicans are clearly worried about the political consequences of Dobbs.
- 45:11Speaker 1: I know like Kellyanne Conway and some others have advised
- 45:13Speaker 1: Trump to stick to a message where he talks about
- 45:16Speaker 1: letting the states decide and then also attacking Democrats for
- 45:20Speaker 1: not favoring any restrictions. Do you think that can work
- 45:23Speaker 1: with young voters? And how much do you see this
- 45:26Speaker 1: as a motivating issue for young voters?
- 45:28Speaker 7: So what fascinates me about the polling around this is
- 45:31Speaker 7: the way that it differs so greatly from the way
- 45:34Speaker 7: it looked 10 years ago, especially for young people. When
- 45:38Speaker 7: I was writing my book on millennials and their political views.
- 45:42Speaker 7: I actually dedicated a couple of pages to the fact
- 45:45Speaker 7: that when I was looking at the way millennials differed
- 45:48Speaker 7: from Gen Xers and boomers on issues on things like
- 45:51Speaker 7: LGBT rights, there were huge generational divides. But actually on
- 45:54Speaker 7: the issue of abortion, as recently as a decade ago,
- 45:57Speaker 7: there really wasn't a huge difference. This idea that there
- 46:01Speaker 7: were big generation or even gender divides was a little
- 46:04Speaker 7: bit overblown. It is not overblown today. There are huge
- 46:08Speaker 7: differences on these issues today. And for young women in particular,
- 46:13Speaker 7: it is a much bigger deal. And part of that
- 46:16Speaker 7: is because of the connection. And I think some pro-life
- 46:21Speaker 7: folks would have said, oh, this is unfair. But now
- 46:23Speaker 7: we've seen in enough states courts or legislatures taking action
- 46:28Speaker 7: that have led to the entanglement of an issue like
- 46:30Speaker 7: abortion with things like fertility care, with things like birth control.
- 46:35Speaker 7: This was a real panic in the wake of the
- 46:36Speaker 7: Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby decision. Oh, my goodness, is this
- 46:39Speaker 7: going to become a political hot button? And it kind
- 46:42Speaker 7: of subsided, like it flared up and then it sort
- 46:44Speaker 7: of went out of the discourse. It is back in
- 46:46Speaker 7: the discourse in a big way. And so I think
- 46:49Speaker 7: it's in a way that it was not a political
- 46:52Speaker 7: threat to Republicans 10 years ago. It is a political
- 46:55Speaker 7: threat now. And that's because even if it's not someone's
- 46:57Speaker 7: top issue, even if when you ask them that question
- 47:00Speaker 7: and you say, you got to pick one, what's your
- 47:01Speaker 7: top issue? They say, I can't afford my groceries. That
- 47:05Speaker 7: comes to the top of the list, economy, cost of living.
- 47:08Speaker 7: But that doesn't mean that abortion's not there as something
- 47:12Speaker 7: at a sort of gut level of, I just can't
- 47:15Speaker 7: bring myself to vote for someone who's on the other
- 47:17Speaker 7: side of that issue. And I also think that the
- 47:20Speaker 7: pro-life community was caught very flat-footed by the Dobbs decision.
- 47:23Speaker 7: You know, I would hear from pro-life folks over the
- 47:26Speaker 7: years that they attributed that lack of a generation divide
- 47:30Speaker 7: on the issue to to the fact that, you know,
- 47:32Speaker 7: you have sonogram technology these days that allows you to
- 47:35Speaker 7: see at a very early stage of pregnancy, look, there's
- 47:37Speaker 7: that little flicker and They sort of thought that that
- 47:40Speaker 7: in and of itself would kind of win the public
- 47:42Speaker 7: opinion battle for them. And as we see in the
- 47:46Speaker 7: wake of the Dobbs decision, that has not been the case.
- 47:50Speaker 7: The other issue, though, that I wanted to touch on
- 47:52Speaker 7: was when you played that clip, it was fascinating to
- 47:54Speaker 7: hear from the young man who said, I'm Muslim and
- 47:57Speaker 7: I am concerned about freedom of speech on campus.
- 47:59Speaker 1: I was literally just about to ask you that because
- 48:01Speaker 1: it came from both sides of the political spectrum, the
- 48:03Speaker 1: concern about the attack on free speech or what they
- 48:05Speaker 1: perceived as an attack on free speech.
- 48:07Speaker 7: So that has been a very quick kind of shift
- 48:10Speaker 7: because I have followed the polling around young people's perceptions
- 48:14Speaker 7: of free speech on campus. And really up until the
- 48:16Speaker 7: last year, it has been primarily a kind of conservative
- 48:20Speaker 7: concern and has gotten kind of dismissed as, well, this
- 48:23Speaker 7: is just conservatives being mad that they're not allowed to
- 48:26Speaker 7: be outrageous on campus. And I don't really care about
- 48:29Speaker 7: their freedom of speech. And now suddenly that it is
- 48:32Speaker 7: affecting young different groups of students, not just, you know,
- 48:35Speaker 7: the campus turning point USA chapter, suddenly you are seeing
- 48:39Speaker 7: more and more young people beginning to go, wait a minute,
- 48:42Speaker 7: I don't know if I like this idea that because
- 48:45Speaker 7: I hold a certain opinion, I'm going to be quote
- 48:47Speaker 7: unquote canceled, or I know that term has been abused.
- 48:49Speaker 7: But it's fascinating to me the way that this is
- 48:52Speaker 7: now a broader concern beyond just the right.
- 48:56Speaker 1: John, do you hear that come up a lot? Because
- 48:58Speaker 1: I've sort of wondered this too. It becomes, and it's
- 49:00Speaker 1: not just like a, you know, conservative activists and liberal
- 49:05Speaker 1: activists or people on the right and people on the left.
- 49:07Speaker 1: You also hear it from people who are apolitical or
- 49:11Speaker 1: who aren't super politically engaged, just this feeling that everyone's
- 49:15Speaker 1: getting in trouble all the time and they're like afraid
- 49:18Speaker 1: to even talk about it and bring it up. And
- 49:20Speaker 1: it feels like it reached its peak in like 2017, 2018, 2019.
- 49:24Speaker 1: And now it's sort of maybe subsided a little bit,
- 49:28Speaker 1: but I don't know. What are you hearing?
- 49:29Speaker 4: Yeah, I hear some of that. I hear some of that.
- 49:31Speaker 5: I still think it's more prominent, you know, in the
- 49:34Speaker 5: conservative and the Republican groups, but, um, I do think
- 49:39Speaker 5: that that is stifling people from sharing their views and
- 49:47Speaker 5: therefore makes them less confident in their choices and thinking
- 49:52Speaker 5: through who they are from a political lens and their values,
- 49:56Speaker 5: et cetera, because they're afraid to even ask questions. I
- 50:00Speaker 5: think that is a very significant factor in terms of
- 50:04Speaker 5: driving or not driving support for people voting or not
- 50:08Speaker 5: because we don't have an environment where people are comfortable
- 50:12Speaker 5: asking questions or sharing their opinions because they'll be judged.
- 50:17Speaker 5: Young potential progressives feel that. Young potential conservatives feel that
- 50:21Speaker 5: as well. And I think that speaks to just a
- 50:24Speaker 5: lot of work we need to do around civics and
- 50:26Speaker 5: civic education with these young people because it's just not
- 50:29Speaker 5: healthy for anybody.
- 50:31Speaker 1: So there's that voter mention, the campus protests, and of course,
- 50:34Speaker 1: the issue related to young voters that's probably gotten the
- 50:37Speaker 1: most attention in the media, certainly on social media, is
- 50:40Speaker 1: the war in Gaza. It was brought up in John's
- 50:43Speaker 1: focus groups. But I thought it was notable that we
- 50:45Speaker 1: also heard a different angle on why young people are
- 50:48Speaker 1: upset about U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts. Let's listen.
- 50:52Speaker 10: I want to stop the genocide.
- 50:53Speaker 6: I want to stop funding the wars.
- 50:56Speaker 10: I can't, in good spirit, being a Muslim woman... continue
- 51:00Speaker 10: to vote Democrat each year, like I have, on local
- 51:04Speaker 10: and on a presidential level, when I know that my
- 51:09Speaker 10: taxpayers' money is funding bullets for children.
- 51:13Speaker 8: Can I ask a follow-up?
- 51:14Speaker 13: Do you feel like by not voting for Biden.
- 51:16Speaker 8: By voting for Trump or someone else.
- 51:18Speaker 11: That will.
- 51:20Speaker 10: The lesser evil?
- 51:21Speaker 5: That will provide more peace or some assistance?
- 51:28Speaker 6: Yes.
- 51:28Speaker 14: And some dignity and respect.
- 51:30Speaker 10: For the Palestinian cause? I think it's my responsibility to
- 51:36Speaker 10: vote for that. Voting for Biden, I mean, we're taking names.
- 51:41Speaker 10: I voted for Biden last year because it was a
- 51:43Speaker 10: lesser evil. But now I can't in good faith vote
- 51:47Speaker 10: for Biden for the same reason, that he is evil.
- 51:50Speaker 6: Thank you.
- 51:51Speaker 10: Fixing the potholes, mental health programs in the United States,
- 51:54Speaker 10: that's a priority for us. It affects our every day.
- 51:57Speaker 10: The price of groceries going up, that affects our every day.
- 52:00Speaker 10: What's happening in XYZ country far away, which, again, we're
- 52:05Speaker 10: in debt, so why are we bailing out other people's debts?
- 52:09Speaker 1: So two different issues there, but I want to start
- 52:11Speaker 1: with Gaza. So polls consistently show that most young people
- 52:15Speaker 1: have become critical of Israel's response to October 7th and
- 52:18Speaker 1: tend to sympathize with the plight of the Palestinians. On
- 52:21Speaker 1: the other hand, Gaza tends to rank much lower on
- 52:24Speaker 1: the list of issues that will determine their vote. John,
- 52:28Speaker 1: does that track with what you're seeing?
- 52:31Speaker 5: Yeah, I've asked the question dozens of ways and dozens
- 52:33Speaker 5: of focus groups and surveys, and that's essentially it. The
- 52:36Speaker 5: only thing I'd add slightly to that, John, is that
- 52:39Speaker 5: In the Harvard polling, younger people sympathize roughly equally with
- 52:42Speaker 5: both the Palestinian civilians and the Israeli civilians, right? It's
- 52:46Speaker 5: the governments where we see the divide. But generally, yes.
- 52:51Speaker 17: Yeah.
- 52:51Speaker 1: Kristen, I'm interested in your thoughts on the opposition to U.S.
- 52:55Speaker 1: financial support for foreign conflicts like Gaza. We heard someone
- 52:59Speaker 1: mention Ukraine in an earlier clip. And of course, this
- 53:03Speaker 1: is a position the Republican Party has moved towards under Trump.
- 53:07Speaker 1: That's quite different than the GOP you grew up with.
- 53:10Speaker 1: Do you think that's where young people of both parties
- 53:14Speaker 1: are headed? Or is there an isolationist streak now among
- 53:17Speaker 1: young people?
- 53:18Speaker 7: Absolutely. So there is no bigger issue set that divides
- 53:24Speaker 7: younger Republicans from older Republicans than foreign policy, which surprises
- 53:31Speaker 7: me sometimes. But the data is very stark. And it's
- 53:34Speaker 7: not just Ukraine. It is really that for an older
- 53:39Speaker 7: set of Republicans, and I think they share this with
- 53:42Speaker 7: older Democrats as well to an extent, there is a
- 53:45Speaker 7: view that America can be a force for good in
- 53:47Speaker 7: this world. Maybe it's like echoes of the Cold War mentality,
- 53:53Speaker 7: but when America is the world's leader, the world is
- 53:57Speaker 7: better off. And that is not something that young people believe,
- 54:00Speaker 7: no matter where they're at on the political spectrum, right
- 54:03Speaker 7: or left. So for those on the left, it is
- 54:05Speaker 7: a belief that America is fundamentally flawed in X, Y,
- 54:08Speaker 7: and Z way, and how dare we tell the rest
- 54:10Speaker 7: of the world how to behave when we have all
- 54:11Speaker 7: these problems at home. For young folks on the right,
- 54:15Speaker 7: it's not necessarily a view that America is bad, but
- 54:18Speaker 7: rather a view that it's not our problem. Let's focus
- 54:24Speaker 7: in at home exactly kind of what you heard. And
- 54:26Speaker 7: so oddly enough, I mean, eight years ago when Republicans
- 54:29Speaker 7: nominated Donald Trump, I thought you could not have created
- 54:32Speaker 7: someone in a lab who was going to be more
- 54:35Speaker 7: off-putting to young voters to turn them away from the
- 54:37Speaker 7: GOP than Donald Trump. But I would say that foreign
- 54:40Speaker 7: policy is actually the one issue area that is a
- 54:43Speaker 7: big exception to that. And that this is where, even
- 54:47Speaker 7: though I think a lot of the sort of Republican
- 54:50Speaker 7: foreign policy establishment believes, and I would say I think rightly,
- 54:55Speaker 7: that the world actually is safer and more stable when
- 54:58Speaker 7: America is strong and is in a leadership role and
- 55:01Speaker 7: is working with our allies rather than just looking inward.
- 55:04Speaker 7: But for most young people, they really don't think they
- 55:08Speaker 7: don't think that America is that great to begin with.
- 55:10Speaker 7: And therefore, they don't think that American projection of power
- 55:14Speaker 7: around the world does anything but harm.
- 55:17Speaker 1: And again, and the Democratic establishment agrees with a lot
- 55:20Speaker 1: of the Republican establishment on that. And younger Democratic voters
- 55:25Speaker 1: seem to agree a little bit more with younger Republican
- 55:29Speaker 1: voters that this is not our business and we should,
- 55:32Speaker 1: and America's, or at least American presence around the world
- 55:35Speaker 1: is a negative, right? It's bad. John, is that what
- 55:37Speaker 1: you're hearing with some young Democratic voters too?
- 55:39Speaker 4: Yeah, very much so.
- 55:41Speaker 5: And the context about that, that was a middle of
- 55:45Speaker 5: a town hall meeting with 25 people, uh, with a, uh,
- 55:48Speaker 5: with a young Muslim woman from, from Dearborn who's kind
- 55:51Speaker 5: of shared that perspective. Um, I think she is reflective
- 55:54Speaker 5: of her generation on the issue of it's, it's, you know,
- 55:58Speaker 5: we need to stop funding, you know, other people's wars,
- 56:01Speaker 5: et cetera, on one hand.
- 56:03Speaker 4: Um, I'm not sure that she's as reflective of her generation.
- 56:06Speaker 5: I know she's not in terms of the connection directly
- 56:08Speaker 5: to Biden and her being less likely to vote Democrat
- 56:10Speaker 5: because we have not seen that correlation. I think that's,
- 56:14Speaker 5: I think that's worth noting. The other thing is every
- 56:16Speaker 5: time I've been in Detroit having these very challenging conversations,
- 56:20Speaker 5: the entry point into Israel and Gaza is through foreign aid, right?
- 56:25Speaker 5: That is viewed as a value and not necessarily a
- 56:30Speaker 5: place where people may or may not claim someone is
- 56:33Speaker 5: anti-Semitic because they carry those values to other places.
- 56:36Speaker 4: Around the world.
- 56:38Speaker 1: Okay, let's end by talking about views of the candidates themselves.
- 56:42Speaker 1: Spoiler alert, Not a lot of Biden or Trump fans
- 56:45Speaker 1: among these folks, which does reflect most of the polling.
- 56:48Speaker 1: But I thought it'd be interesting to hear how they're
- 56:50Speaker 1: thinking through the choice, starting with an Atlanta voter who
- 56:53Speaker 1: talked about why he used to like Trump.
- 56:56Speaker 11: I was like 18 years old, you know, going starting
- 57:01Speaker 11: off college.
- 57:02Speaker 13: And, you know, like he's funny and he tells it
- 57:05Speaker 13: like it is.
- 57:05Speaker 8: And, you know, he doesn't give a fuck, you know,
- 57:07Speaker 8: it's like he offends somebody.
- 57:09Speaker 4: And, you know, that was very appealing to me.
- 57:12Speaker 1: You know, 18-year-old sensibility.
- 57:14Speaker 13: I would say Trump, and I think it's very easy
- 57:18Speaker 13: for me being 22 for it to be skewed because
- 57:20Speaker 13: I was a lot younger when Trump was in office,
- 57:23Speaker 13: so I didn't really pay attention to it.
- 57:24Speaker 10: I wasn't paying bills the same way I am now.
- 57:27Speaker 17: And I also think that Biden's a little bit, like,
- 57:31Speaker 17: there's lasting effects from COVID that really, you can't really
- 57:35Speaker 17: blame on him that we're starting to feel right now,
- 57:37Speaker 17: like inflation being one of them.
- 57:39Speaker 15: I don't think, he's definitely not helping it, but.
- 57:41Speaker 13: There was bound to be some level of inflation.
- 57:44Speaker 17: But, I mean, when I think about it, there was
- 57:46Speaker 17: no foreign tension.
- 57:47Speaker 3: But as far as they were saying about Biden being bad,
- 57:51Speaker 3: I kind of agree with that. But at the same time,
- 57:54Speaker 3: I feel like if your choice is Biden or a racist,
- 58:00Speaker 3: you're behind a go with Biden.
- 58:02Speaker 12: I think we all need to show up to vote
- 58:04Speaker 12: and everything because there's so many, like, boomer generation politicians
- 58:10Speaker 12: in place that are literally insane like they should not
- 58:14Speaker 12: be there anymore they they don't know what's going on
- 58:16Speaker 12: they're not in tune with their people so.
- 58:19Speaker 11: We need to come together to make sure that there's
- 58:21Speaker 11: people there that know what's going on and can.
- 58:24Speaker 1: Speak up for what we need so uh we hear
- 58:27Speaker 1: a lot of younger voters talking about the lesser of
- 58:29Speaker 1: two evils um may sound frustrating or depressing to some people,
- 58:34Speaker 1: but I don't know, John, could ultimately be an effective
- 58:37Speaker 1: argument if you're trying to get someone to vote for Biden?
- 58:39Speaker 5: Well, it's the old comparative. There needs to be a comparative, right?
- 58:42Speaker 5: You know, Trump tried this, Biden did that. Trump believes,
- 58:46Speaker 5: you know, Trump believes in restricting abortion on a national basis.
- 58:51Speaker 5: Biden is working to kind of create a national law
- 58:55Speaker 5: to support women's reproductive rights, et cetera. So there has
- 58:57Speaker 5: to be that sort of comparative. I think, John, One
- 59:00Speaker 5: of the more interesting focus groups I've done in a
- 59:02Speaker 5: long time was with those first clips.
- 59:04Speaker 4: Of those young men in Atlanta, right?
- 59:07Speaker 5: And the idea of that first-time voter, their first reaction
- 59:11Speaker 5: to Trump when they were in their early high school years,
- 59:13Speaker 5: they view him as an antihero.
- 59:15Speaker 4: And that is worth noting, right?
- 59:17Speaker 5: Their values aren't necessarily aligned, but that first experience is
- 59:21Speaker 5: a different experience than the young voter four years ago,
- 59:25Speaker 5: you know, who kind of came of age and saw
- 59:27Speaker 5: the you know, the policy and the comments where.
- 59:32Speaker 4: There's Charlottesville and other things.
- 59:33Speaker 5: So that's a really important perspective in terms of how
- 59:35Speaker 5: younger people's experience in this cycle is different than younger
- 59:39Speaker 5: people's experience in the last cycle.
- 59:41Speaker 4: And it goes just as well for Biden, by the way.
- 59:44Speaker 1: Chris, and there's been some data suggests a growing gender
- 59:47Speaker 1: divide among young voters with Trump appealing to more young men.
- 59:52Speaker 1: Do you think his support among this cohort has grown
- 59:55Speaker 1: over the last eight years? What do you think's going
- 59:57Speaker 1: on there?
- 59:59Speaker 7: So I think to the extent that you had somebody
- 1:00:01Speaker 7: who at 18 took the view of Trump, like the
- 1:00:04Speaker 7: young man in this focus group, right, that they liked
- 1:00:07Speaker 7: something about his sort of lawless, I don't care kind
- 1:00:12Speaker 7: of vibe, and that was appealing to them. I've been
- 1:00:15Speaker 7: a strong believer that part of the reason why Donald
- 1:00:18Speaker 7: Trump lost in 2020, and there are a million things
- 1:00:21Speaker 7: you could put on this list, but the one of
- 1:00:23Speaker 7: them is In 2016, he retained this aura of celebrity
- 1:00:28Speaker 7: around him. He's the guy who's good at economics. He's
- 1:00:31Speaker 7: Donald Trump who you see on TV. And the reality
- 1:00:35Speaker 7: of President Donald Trump was not quite that. But now
- 1:00:40Speaker 7: we've got another four years that we've been on where,
- 1:00:43Speaker 7: you know, Donald Trump sort of backed away from being
- 1:00:46Speaker 7: in the news that much. He's literally been on trial
- 1:00:48Speaker 7: for felony charges and most Americans think were probably not
- 1:00:53Speaker 7: that tuned in until maybe they heard about the verdict from,
- 1:00:56Speaker 7: you know, someone who heard from someone. And so I
- 1:00:59Speaker 7: still think that at this moment, and this will change
- 1:01:02Speaker 7: by the time we get to November, that Trump has
- 1:01:04Speaker 7: kind of reverted back in a lot of voters' minds
- 1:01:07Speaker 7: to celebrity Trump. And you see him cultivating this, right?
- 1:01:10Speaker 7: He shows up at UFC events. Like, that's what he's
- 1:01:13Speaker 7: leaning back into, this kind of, I am, you know— masculine.
- 1:01:19Speaker 7: I don't care. I'm vibrant. I'm vigorous. He's trying to
- 1:01:23Speaker 7: set up a contrast with Biden in doing so. But
- 1:01:27Speaker 7: can that sustain itself over however many months we have
- 1:01:30Speaker 7: until November with lots of advertising reminding voters of what
- 1:01:34Speaker 7: Trump was like as president? That's where I'm not so sure.
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: Well, John, that brings up like the challenge of reaching
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: younger voters in an information environment where they're either not
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: paying attention to political news or getting their news from
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: social platforms like TikTok, or as Kristen was saying earlier,
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: getting some political information from influencers who aren't necessarily explicitly political.
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: How has that changed the strategies necessary to communicate with
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: and persuade these voters to And, and to, because otherwise
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: it becomes sort of a vibes thing that Kristen was
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: just mentioning where it's like, oh, Trump seems cool and
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: maybe it wasn't that bad. And he's showing up at
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: UFC and Biden seems really old. And I'm seeing all
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: these videos of him, you know, look at looking frozen
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: and whatever else, like what, what, what are those strategies like?
- 1:02:24Speaker 4: Well, you need to play in that space. You need to,
- 1:02:27Speaker 4: you need to play in the vibes playground, right? That's got,
- 1:02:31Speaker 4: that's where young people get their information. You know, it's
- 1:02:33Speaker 4: quite clear. And that starts, I think, with really.
- 1:02:38Speaker 5: Having sophisticated strategies around two channels, around YouTube and TikTok,
- 1:02:43Speaker 5: from those two platforms. And it's just not in 30 seconds,
- 1:02:46Speaker 5: 60 seconds, 90 seconds. It could be in 10, 15-minute
- 1:02:50Speaker 5: chunks of video on YouTube, which young people actually enjoy
- 1:02:54Speaker 5: that seemingly long form of content if they're able to
- 1:02:57Speaker 5: learn something.
- 1:02:58Speaker 4: Because that is where information.
- 1:03:00Speaker 5: um, is, is, is, is that's like the central place
- 1:03:04Speaker 5: in terms of where information is moving it from there,
- 1:03:06Speaker 5: it goes to, you know, Reddit and discord and Twitch
- 1:03:09Speaker 5: and the other gaming platforms, but these.
- 1:03:11Speaker 4: These efforts, and it can't be directly from the campaign.
- 1:03:14Speaker 5: They are the least, you know, um, uh, you know, uh,
- 1:03:18Speaker 5: they're the least trusted, uh, distributors of this sort of content.
- 1:03:21Speaker 4: So what has to happen.
- 1:03:23Speaker 5: I believe is that, um, like Trump has been doing
- 1:03:27Speaker 5: some way is tapping kind of influences or newer ideas
- 1:03:30Speaker 5: outside of the traditional political ecosystem, see them on YouTube,
- 1:03:34Speaker 5: see them on the streaming platforms, and begin to kind
- 1:03:40Speaker 5: of reestablish and make some sort of connections on the
- 1:03:43Speaker 5: issues that matter so that the younger person who is
- 1:03:46Speaker 5: at the Fourth of July picnic or moving into their dorm,
- 1:03:50Speaker 5: when they have that moment when another member of their
- 1:03:53Speaker 5: group is questioning what it all means or questioning government
- 1:03:56Speaker 5: or questioning the differences, that information is available to be
- 1:03:59Speaker 5: communicated from a peer-to-peer, right?
- 1:04:02Speaker 4: There needs to be.
- 1:04:03Speaker 5: Some organization kind of top-down seeding information through TikTok and YouTube,
- 1:04:09Speaker 5: in my belief, and then which gives permission to other
- 1:04:12Speaker 5: people to say, you know what, may not be popular,
- 1:04:16Speaker 5: I'm standing up for Biden because of this.
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: Kristen, last question. For a younger voter, who is open
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: to the possibility of a second Trump term isn't sold yet,
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: what do you think the most effective argument is that
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: might make them pause and decide that maybe they don't
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: want to pull that lever for Trump?
- 1:04:40Speaker 7: So I think the notion that Donald Trump wants to be,
- 1:04:46Speaker 7: you know, he says, I want to be transformative. I
- 1:04:49Speaker 7: want to be this wrecking ball. But the idea that
- 1:04:52Speaker 7: he does not want to be transformative in a forward-looking direction,
- 1:04:56Speaker 7: but back. I mean, his message has always been make
- 1:04:59Speaker 7: America great again. It harkens back to a past. And
- 1:05:03Speaker 7: I know that this is the summer of nostalgia and
- 1:05:06Speaker 7: that we're in this moment where Jen's ears are like,
- 1:05:09Speaker 7: pulling up videos from when like people our age were
- 1:05:11Speaker 7: graduating from high school and they're like, oh, I miss
- 1:05:14Speaker 7: that kind of an experience. Why don't we have this? Like,
- 1:05:16Speaker 7: I understand that there is some nostalgia for 1999 that
- 1:05:20Speaker 7: is completely justified. That's not what Donald Trump is talking about.
- 1:05:23Speaker 7: He's not talking about going back to 1999. And I
- 1:05:26Speaker 7: think it is the fact that Trump has set himself
- 1:05:29Speaker 7: up to say, yes, I want to blow things up,
- 1:05:32Speaker 7: but the way I want to move them is to
- 1:05:34Speaker 7: hit the rewind button and go back and reclaim something
- 1:05:37Speaker 7: that we feel like has been lost. There are a
- 1:05:39Speaker 7: lot of things in America's past that are completely the
- 1:05:42Speaker 7: opposite of what Gen Z wants for their future. And
- 1:05:45Speaker 7: so I think if I was advising Democrats on how
- 1:05:48Speaker 7: to best divorce Trump from the young voters who are
- 1:05:52Speaker 7: curious about him, it would be that. It wouldn't be
- 1:05:55Speaker 7: trying to say Trump is just as old as Biden
- 1:05:57Speaker 7: or any of that stuff. It would be that Trump
- 1:06:01Speaker 7: does want to blow things up, that he does want
- 1:06:03Speaker 7: to be vigorous and shake up the system. And he's
- 1:06:06Speaker 7: In a second term, he's not going to be mild-mannered
- 1:06:09Speaker 7: about it. He has said as much himself, but the
- 1:06:12Speaker 7: direction that he wants to take things is the opposite
- 1:06:15Speaker 7: direction of what you're looking for.
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: And John, say you have a young Biden 2020 voter
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: in your life who's not sure they want to vote
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: for him again. You have a few minutes to persuade
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: this person to get out and vote for Biden. What
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: do you say?
- 1:06:26Speaker 5: I'd say, why did you vote for him in 2020?
- 1:06:29Speaker 5: And they'll say something to the effect of, I want
- 1:06:31Speaker 5: to progress on student debt, on gun violence, on climate.
- 1:06:35Speaker 5: And then I would remind them that despite, in many ways,
- 1:06:38Speaker 5: significant odds of Republicans fighting against the Supreme Court, he's
- 1:06:43Speaker 5: accomplished those things. He's not only promised those things, he
- 1:06:45Speaker 5: listened to young people, but he delivered in ways that
- 1:06:48Speaker 5: no other president in many decades has delivered for them.
- 1:06:51Speaker 5: And that those things are at risk. They may not
- 1:06:54Speaker 5: be where they need to be at this moment, but
- 1:06:57Speaker 5: they're at risk if he votes in some other way.
- 1:07:00Speaker 1: John and Kristen, thank you so much for joining The Wilderness.
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: This was a fascinating conversation. I really appreciate your time.
- 1:07:05Speaker 7: Thanks for having us.
- 1:07:06Speaker 4: Thank you.
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: I found John's focus groups bleaker than most, but also enlightening,
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: especially after my conversation with him and Kristen. These are
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: two people with ties to the Democratic establishment and the
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: pre-Trump Republican establishment. But because they've both spent so much
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: time talking to younger voters, it's given both of them
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: unique insight into where the future of American politics may
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: be headed. And it's a place that's probably unrecognizable to
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: the establishment of either party. Younger voters simply don't have
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: the same faith in institutions that older voters do. Some
- 1:07:42Speaker 1: of that has to do with the fact that they
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: don't see themselves represented in those institutions. Some of it
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: has to do with the fact that they feel let
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: down by those institutions at a time when they don't
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: feel secure about their finances, their rights, or their safety.
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: And some of it has to do with where and
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: how they're getting the news and information that shapes their worldviews.
- 1:08:00Speaker 1: This presents an especially difficult challenge to the one party
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: that's currently fighting to defend our democratic institutions from the
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: threat of authoritarianism. But the challenge isn't insurmountable. We've already
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: seen young people turn out in record numbers in 2018
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: and 2020 and 2022. We've seen them march and protest
- 1:08:21Speaker 1: and organize with a sense of urgency and intensity that
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: this moment demands. And as John and Kristen both mentioned,
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: even if Gen Z doesn't have much faith in the
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: older people who are currently in charge, They have a
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: lot of confidence in their own ability to make things happen.
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: Just look at Anderson Clayton.
- 1:08:39Speaker 2: So right now in the state, we've got organizers on
- 1:08:42Speaker 2: the ground. They are knocking doors across every county in
- 1:08:44Speaker 2: North Carolina on every weekend. The traditional ways of voter
- 1:08:49Speaker 2: contact are not always going to be the most effective
- 1:08:52Speaker 2: to reach young voters. And I think that where we
- 1:08:54Speaker 2: have to really chase the margins and chase young people
- 1:08:56Speaker 2: is showing up where they are. So that means on
- 1:08:59Speaker 2: college campuses. That means at your place of work. I
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: was in a rural county this past weekend, and one
- 1:09:04Speaker 2: of the guys that's running for county commissioner out there
- 1:09:06Speaker 2: looked at me.
- 1:09:07Speaker 7: And he goes, where are young voters at.
- 1:09:09Speaker 2: In this county, Anderson? And I said, do you have
- 1:09:12Speaker 2: a Lowe's, a Walmart, a fast food restaurant anywhere in
- 1:09:15Speaker 2: this county? Yes, absolutely, because the majority of those entities
- 1:09:19Speaker 2: are actually the number one employer in those counties, right, sometimes.
- 1:09:23Speaker 2: Walmart employs up to 300 people in any rural community
- 1:09:25Speaker 2: that you live in right now. And so looking at
- 1:09:29Speaker 2: that and saying, like, you know, where's the shift change? Like,
- 1:09:31Speaker 2: on the shift change, like, are you out there with
- 1:09:33Speaker 2: a clipboard asking those folks they registered to vote?
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: This is the kind of energy and creativity we need
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: right now. We can't just sit around and worry and
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: wait for better things to happen. Better polls, better news cycles,
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: better campaigns. We've got to go make it happen ourselves.
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: We've got to go do the work like everything depends
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: on us. Because it does.
- 1:09:59Speaker 2: I think about it being in the South right now,
- 1:10:01Speaker 2: and I'm like, voting this year is about survival to
- 1:10:05Speaker 2: us in so many ways. 55% of Black Americans live
- 1:10:08Speaker 2: in the South right now. And so I'm coming from
- 1:10:11Speaker 2: a region... that has felt overlooked and honestly ignored by
- 1:10:14Speaker 2: a lot of the political apparatus in the entire country
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: for a long period of time. And I need people
- 1:10:19Speaker 2: to wake the fuck up this year that you're not
- 1:10:21Speaker 2: just voting for yourself. You are voting for every other
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: person in this country, in this state that is marginalized
- 1:10:28Speaker 2: and that does not have what they need right now.
- 1:10:31Speaker 2: And it's not about Donald Trump or Joe Biden. It
- 1:10:34Speaker 2: is about the future of the world that you want
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: to live in. If you don't want to vote this
- 1:10:39Speaker 2: year to protect the people around you, what do you
- 1:10:43Speaker 2: want to vote for? Like, genuinely. And that's something that
- 1:10:46Speaker 2: I think you've got to sit with it and decide
- 1:10:49Speaker 2: it for yourselves. And there may still be people after
- 1:10:51Speaker 2: that that look at me and say, Anderson, it ain't
- 1:10:53Speaker 2: worth it to me. And I'm like, but that's on us. Like,
- 1:10:57Speaker 2: that is humanity. And I'm like, I know that we're
- 1:10:59Speaker 2: better than that. We're better than that as people. We
- 1:11:01Speaker 2: have to be. We have to be this year.
- 1:11:05Speaker 1: We know things aren't great. We know our options aren't perfect,
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: and neither are we. But we can make things better.
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: We can be better. And right now, we have to be.
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: We'll see you next time on The Wilderness. The Wilderness
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: is a production of Crooked Media. It's written and hosted
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: by me, Jon Favreau. Our senior producer and editor is
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: Andrea B. Scott. Austin Fisher is our producer. and Farrah
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: Safari is our associate producer. Sound design by Vassilis Fotopoulos.
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: Music by Marty Fowler. Charlotte Landis and Jordan Cantor sound
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: engineered the show. Thanks to Katie Long, Reed Cherlin, Matt DeGrotte,
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: and Madeline Herringer for production support. To our video team,
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: Rachel Gajewski, Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel, and David Tolles,
- 1:11:57Speaker 1: who filmed and edited the show. If the wilderness has
- 1:12:00Speaker 1: inspired you to get involved, head on over to votesaveamerica.com
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: slash 2024 Just sign up and find a volunteer shift
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: near you.