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Episode 365 - 10/2/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 365 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:26
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:37
  Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week rolls on.
• 0:40
  Coming close to coming to an end here, guys.
• 0:42
  We got today, we got tomorrow. We got a huge weekend ahead, but
• 0:45
  we got a lot to get to. On today's podcast, we're going
• 0:48
  to focus laser focused on this Thursday Night Football showdown
• 0:51
  because we got a big game here kicking off NFL Week 5.
• 0:54
  We didn't expect Mac Jones, but we got Mac Jones and Matthew
• 0:57
  Stafford 49ers, Rams, a huge line move caused by a ton of
• 1:01
  injuries on the San Fran side. So I'm going to take a little
• 1:04
  bit of a different approach to this game.
• 1:06
  I'm going to tell you why the spread worries me a bit.
• 1:09
  Obviously there's One Direction the line has moved, but there's
• 1:11
  been some buyback. Are you getting the best price
• 1:13
  at this point? Are you laying the worst of it?
• 1:15
  So I'm going to focus on the total for tonight's game.
• 1:18
  So we'll have a best bet here on Thursday Night Football.
• 1:21
  And I do want to mention it's a huge baseball day.
• 1:23
  I'm not one to ignore that. Three huge do or die games.
• 1:27
  Remember the wild card round three games got to win two out
• 1:30
  of three. Kind of annoying that they don't
• 1:32
  go back and forth like maybe, you know, the first two games or
• 1:35
  one game here, one game there, you know, game three, you get
• 1:38
  the home field, but all in one place.
• 1:40
  But obviously we have three do or die spots.
• 1:42
  And you could you could talk me into a couple plays today, but I
• 1:45
  didn't want to force anything. And we've been running pretty
• 1:48
  good, knock on wood with with NFL.
• 1:50
  So I want to stick to, of course, the NFL.
• 1:53
  So again, good luck to all the all of you, including my Red
• 1:56
  Sox. I got no money on the game, but
• 1:58
  I'm hoping Connelly early will pitch well here at Yankee
• 2:00
  Stadium against Cam Schlitter. Maybe the Red Sox will surprise
• 2:04
  me. They're a big dog today.
• 2:05
  They're like plus 135. Maybe they'll come through in in
• 2:07
  advance and punch their ticket to the next round.
• 2:10
  So I'll be rooting on the on the Red Sox as a fan.
• 2:13
  Before we dive in our our big sweat here for for NFL for
• 2:16
  Thursday Night Football, just want to mention a couple things.
• 2:18
  One, we do have the rhythm rundown tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern
• 2:22
  Time. So if you're new to it or you're
• 2:24
  unfamiliar, every Thursday night, 6:00 Eastern Time, you go
• 2:27
  right on Twitter. You find my account at Josh
• 2:30
  under score Insights. Even if you go to your homepage,
• 2:32
  usually they'll show you all the accounts that are live and
• 2:35
  hosting a live stream. So myself, my buddy Kate Harper
• 2:38
  will be hosting once again tonight, 6:00 to 7:00 Eastern
• 2:42
  Time breaking on Thursday Night Football and all the games we
• 2:44
  like for collagen pros this weekend from a rhythm based
• 2:49
  perspective, reminder rhythm has a great leaderboard contest
• 2:53
  right now. If you create a model that
• 2:55
  performs the best each week, you can get up to 1000 bucks. 2nd
• 2:59
  place gets 603rd place gets 400. There's also a refer a friend.
• 3:03
  So if you want to, you know, give Rhythm a recommend to
• 3:06
  someone else, you'll both get a big discount on your service.
• 3:09
  And then also we have Rhythm with a start 25 promo.
• 3:14
  So if you're new to it, you want to give it a shot, use the promo
• 3:17
  code start 25 for 25% off. And then Thursday nights, I
• 3:20
  wouldn't have it in any other way.
• 3:22
  They're pretty busy for your boy.
• 3:23
  But I will be on Visen Live tonight, my buddy Patrick Maher,
• 3:27
  9:00 Eastern Time. That'll be on SiriusXM and Mad
• 3:31
  Dog Sports Radio. So always enjoy my conversations
• 3:34
  with my buddy Patrick. So we're locked and loaded for a
• 3:37
  big Thursday. Now looking back toward
• 3:38
  yesterday, guys kept the mini hot streak going here third
• 3:42
  straight winning day one and O + 0.87 units.
• 3:46
  And boy did we have to sweat. I'm dripping.
• 3:48
  I'm still, I'm still dripping sweat after last night.
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  Red Sox, Yankees under 7 1/2. Remember, we built the case
• 3:54
  where it was really juiced to the under.
• 3:57
  We also had a wind blowing in system match.
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  At one point in the game, they showed the the flags on top of
• 4:02
  Yankee Stadium howling. So we're able to get that under
• 4:05
  with postseason unders now. I think 5, two and one so far
• 4:09
  this year. But it wasn't easy because we
• 4:11
  had two runs scored in the first, We had two runs scored in
• 4:14
  the third. It was a two to two game top of
• 4:16
  the third. I'm like, oh, this isn't good.
• 4:18
  I think the live total was like 9 1/2, but luckily kind of shut
• 4:21
  the door the rest of the way. I'm a Red Sox fan, so I was
• 4:25
  annoyed that they didn't win the game, but at least we got that
• 4:27
  under 7 1/2. And I always try to highlight
• 4:31
  the the sweat meter, the sweat graph, which you can find when
• 4:34
  you download Juice Reel and every game you you bet once once
• 4:37
  you sync up your sports books, you bet a game at whatever book
• 4:40
  you're at. It goes right to juice trail.
• 4:41
  It will give you that chart. So like at the beginning of the
• 4:43
  game, it was all red, the little bar graph.
• 4:46
  And obviously you are able to cash with green late, late in
• 4:49
  the in the game as the Yankees are able to hold on four to
• 4:52
  three. So nice little winner there in
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  MLB 1 and O + 0.87 units. But with that being said, let's
• 4:59
  see if we can keep it going. We have one play here for
• 5:01
  tonight. Let's talk about this game and
• 5:03
  every angle. San Fran, LA Rams kicking off
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  NFL Week 5, so 8:15 PM Eastern Time, first pitch tonight.
• 5:11
  Remember, you got to have your, your, your Amazon Prime locked
• 5:14
  and loaded and ready to go. But by now, that's should be
• 5:17
  second nature, I guess. But anyway, setting the stage
• 5:20
  here, a little background. San Fran comes in three and one.
• 5:23
  You wouldn't think so because they got all these injuries, but
• 5:25
  off to a good start. Just lost to the Jaguars.
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  However, 26 to 21 last week, losing outright as a 3 1/2 point
• 5:32
  home favorite. Meanwhile, the Rams also three
• 5:35
  and one again. The Rams have been my kryptonite
• 5:38
  this year. I bet on them and they get a
• 5:41
  miss field goal blocked and I lose my plus 3 1/2.
• 5:44
  Then I bet against them with Colts plus 3 1/2 and what do you
• 5:47
  know, they score a 88 yard 22 Atwell touchdown to kill me.
• 5:51
  So that's part of the reason why I don't really want to touch
• 5:54
  this spread. I'll give you a full breakdown
• 5:55
  here, but either way, Rams three and one beat the Colts 27 to 20.
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  Did cover the -3 1/2 at home last week.
• 6:01
  So what have we seen across the market?
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  Well, this is one of the biggest prime time line moves I've seen
• 6:07
  probably all year in quite a while.
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  And it's a lot having to do with the injuries.
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  So this game opened LA very early, around a three-point home
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  favorite. And we have seen just massive,
• 6:17
  massive movement toward the Rams opening -3 they're all the way
• 6:21
  up to -8 1/2. And anytime you see a huge move
• 6:24
  like that, like usually smart money will push a game 1/2
• 6:27
  point, a point, you know, full point, point and a half, maybe 2
• 6:31
  points if it's really sharp. When you see a 5 1/2 point line
• 6:35
  move, it's almost always having to do with injuries.
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  So the reason, big reason why we saw this line get steamed up so
• 6:41
  heavily in favor of the Rams -3 up to -8 1/2 is #1 the
• 6:46
  quarterback Brock Purdy will not play tonight.
• 6:49
  He's got a toe injury. The top 2 wide receivers will
• 6:52
  not play. Ricky Pearsall knee injury,
• 6:54
  Jawan Jennings ankle injury. So you know what that means.
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  Mac Jones return of the Mac. As a Patriots fan, I have a lot
• 7:01
  of feelings about Mac Jones. I would say he wasn't put in the
• 7:05
  best position when Belichick hired Tweedledee and Tweedledum
• 7:08
  to be his offensive coordinators and had like no skill position
• 7:12
  players. But also Mack Jones acted like a
• 7:14
  little baby the whole time. So anyway, you don't don't get
• 7:16
  me started with Mack Jones, but it will be Mack Jones against
• 7:19
  Matthew Stafford and again, a lot of offensive weapons
• 7:23
  injuries here for San Fran. Now if you look at the splits,
• 7:27
  the splits look actually pretty good on the Rams.
• 7:29
  At DraftKings, 61% of spread bets, 71% of spread dollars on
• 7:33
  the Rams. At Circa, only 47% of spread
• 7:36
  bets, but 86% of spread dollars on the Rams.
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  So that would again show us a low bets higher dollar split
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  from both the National DK as well as the Sharp Desert Vegas
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  wiseguy book Circa in favor of the Rams.
• 7:50
  You also get Thursday Night Football.
• 7:52
  Again, it's a little bit different.
• 7:53
  It's the short week. So that causes a big change in
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  the, a lot of the variables here, less time to prepare.
• 8:00
  Short week in terms of the bodies, body clock and injuries
• 8:03
  coming off a short week. We have seen historically
• 8:05
  Thursday football home favorites do pretty well against the
• 8:08
  spread. They're 99 and 81 against the
• 8:11
  spread, 55 percent, 7% ROI since 2006.
• 8:16
  Here's my dilemma though. I have seen some buyback on San
• 8:19
  Francisco. So this line got as high as Rams
• 8:22
  -9 and once it got to 9, you saw get back down to 8 1/2, which is
• 8:27
  we're pretty much sitting right now.
• 8:29
  And there's actually a couple books that are juicing up the
• 8:31
  49ers side plus 8 1/2 at -115 So if you dig a little deeper,
• 8:37
  you're trying to build a case for San Fran.
• 8:39
  They're definitely not sharp, but they are inflated line value
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  play. You are buying low on a bunch of
• 8:45
  injuries. You are also getting an inflated
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  dog getting now 8 1/2 when they open at 3:00 because of those
• 8:51
  injuries, but also you're a prime time dog.
• 8:54
  We have big Rd. dog, big dogs in general.
• 8:56
  Plus 6 1/2, eight and seven ATS this year, 141 and 114 ATS with
• 9:01
  a 6% ROI since 2022. Divisional dogs, built in
• 9:06
  familiarity levels, the playing field benefits, the team getting
• 9:08
  points. They're 53% with a nearly 3% ROI
• 9:12
  since 2019. Primetime dogs are eating 5 ATS
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  this year, 62 percent, 53 percent, 2% ROI.
• 9:20
  Since 2020, Kyle Shanahan has a dog's been pretty good, 55% ATS,
• 9:24
  6% ROI in his career. So we're kind of building the
• 9:28
  case that it's clear the lines going to the Rams, they got good
• 9:31
  bet splits. There's enough football
• 9:33
  favorites tend to do well. But if you're laying 8 1/2 nine,
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  you're getting the worst of it. You're laying the worst of the
• 9:39
  number with the Rams. I also don't love San Fran.
• 9:43
  Yes, you're checking off a lot of boxes.
• 9:44
  But my 1 little hiccup here, guys.
• 9:46
  This reminds me a little bit of that Broncos, Bengals game where
• 9:50
  I forgot what that opened at, but it got steamed all the way
• 9:53
  up to what was it, Broncos -7 1/2.
• 9:56
  There was some sharp buyback and brought it back down to seven.
• 9:59
  The Broncos ended up rolling in that game.
• 10:01
  Like if you remember, I think the Broncos won, what was it, 28
• 10:06
  to 3? And that was that big steam in
• 10:08
  favor of the Broncos. So that's what kind of worries
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  me. Like if the Rams end up winning
• 10:13
  by 10 or more, it's like, yeah, clearly they got steam -3 up to
• 10:16
  -8 1/2. But then I'm also laying the
• 10:19
  worst of it with the public. On the other hand, I don't
• 10:22
  really want to bet San Fran and back match Mac Jones.
• 10:25
  So this for me is a layoff. I really don't want anything to
• 10:28
  do with this side. I would say there are some other
• 10:31
  angles here for the Rams. Like if you do want to play the
• 10:33
  Rams, I think they're in a great teaser spot.
• 10:36
  You take the Rams down -8 1/2 to -2 1/2 in a teaser.
• 10:41
  You're going through the seven, going through the three.
• 10:43
  That's really the way wise guys approach teasers.
• 10:45
  The public looks at teasers just by saying give me more points, I
• 10:48
  like a dog, give me more points, I like a favorite.
• 10:51
  Let's tease them down. Whereas wise guys really look at
• 10:54
  going through multiple key numbers.
• 10:55
  So I think there's an angle here to play the Rams in a teaser.
• 10:58
  The other angle would be Survivor.
• 11:01
  I don't talk a ton about Survivor, but I do want to thank
• 11:03
  everyone who joined my splash contest with survivor.
• 11:07
  We had 171 entries and we are down to I think the latest count
• 11:12
  was like 140. So again, we've had a few drop
• 11:16
  off here, but I'm using Rams and survivor tonight.
• 11:19
  It's a short week. These this is this has nothing
• 11:22
  to do with like betting them straight up because you know,
• 11:24
  you look at the price right now, they're minus like 455 hundred.
• 11:27
  Definitely not laying that, but in survivor we have favorites
• 11:31
  this year in the NFL 45 and 18 straight up 71%.
• 11:35
  Thursday football favorites are four and O straight up this year
• 11:38
  they're 73% straight up since was it 2006 and Thursday
• 11:44
  football home favorites 74%. So a lot of these straight up
• 11:48
  survivor just went in advance. Stafford Rams at home, short
• 11:52
  week, big line move, a lot of injuries to San Fran.
• 11:55
  Mac Jones is starting. If you could tease the Rams
• 11:58
  down, I think they're a pretty smart survivor.
• 12:00
  Play for this weekend as well. With that being said though,
• 12:03
  here's my official best bet. Give me the under in this game.
• 12:06
  I'm hoping for a low scoring game here.
• 12:09
  Now the first thing I notice is a lot of steam on this under.
• 12:12
  This total opened as high as around 47 1/2.
• 12:15
  This total has now been bet down to around 44.
• 12:18
  Some shops even down to 43 1/2, specifically over the last 24
• 12:23
  hours. I went to bed last night and the
• 12:25
  total was 45 1/2. And I was thinking, I don't
• 12:28
  really want to lay the big points of the Rams.
• 12:29
  I don't really want to take Mac Jones as an inflated dog.
• 12:32
  And I was saying, hey, I should, I should take that under 45 1/2.
• 12:36
  Well, I'm kicking myself because I waited too long and I woke up
• 12:39
  this morning, it was 44 1/2. So I played under 44 1/2.
• 12:43
  That was -118 at FanDuel. I don't think many hooks are
• 12:48
  available anymore. Mostly you can get still 44.
• 12:51
  That's at Caesar's and Fanatics. A lot of books are at 43 1/2.
• 12:55
  The whole point being though, that late movement last 24 hours
• 12:59
  game day, the 45 1/2 got down to 44, even 43 1/2.
• 13:03
  So anytime you got that late, late game day movement, when big
• 13:06
  bets come in, limits get raised typically that's a good sign.
• 13:09
  You also look at the splits here, only about half the
• 13:13
  tickets, 50%, but nearly 60% of dollars at DraftKings around the
• 13:17
  under. And there's a lot of other
• 13:18
  betting system matches. I actually have 8 betting system
• 13:21
  matches on this under primetime unders this year.
• 13:24
  They are 8 and 753%. They are 198 and one 4358
• 13:31
  percent, 12% ROI since 2019 when the total drops at least one
• 13:35
  full point in a divisional matchup.
• 13:37
  I call this the divisional unders that drop system match.
• 13:40
  The under is 8 and five this year, 62%.
• 13:43
  It's 95 and 7556 percent, 7% ROI since 2022.
• 13:49
  Bill Vinovich is a really good knock on wood under ref.
• 13:53
  Historically he's 57% to the under.
• 13:56
  And then also, you know, what are you going to get out of the
• 13:59
  offense with Mac Jones and all his wide receivers hurt?
• 14:02
  Hopefully that is a big negative and makes it harder to score.
• 14:05
  And also these two teams are really good defensively.
• 14:08
  They ranked top 10 and fewest points allowed per game.
• 14:11
  We have 49ers giving up 18.8 points per game.
• 14:14
  That's 7th best in the NFL. Rams are giving up 20.3 points
• 14:18
  per game, that's 10th best in the NFLI.
• 14:21
  Also have a Rhythm Green Star recommended play on the under
• 14:26
  under 43 1/2. Now Rhythm has it basically
• 14:29
  right at 43. Obviously you can shop around
• 14:32
  and still find a 44. Little shameless plug here, you
• 14:37
  can get every best bet as soon as I make it by following on
• 14:40
  Juice Reel for $4.99 a week. But you would have gotten that
• 14:43
  44 1/2 a little bit earlier. So again, I think there's some
• 14:47
  some red flags on the side. Obviously Rams get in the big
• 14:50
  line move. There isn't a football typically
• 14:52
  is good for the home favorite. San Fran though is a divisional
• 14:56
  dog, inflated dog, big dog. So I don't want to touch that
• 14:59
  side at all. Again, I think you tease down
• 15:01
  the Rams. That's a pretty smart bet to 2
• 15:03
  1/2 and if you play them in survivor, I'm I'm playing them
• 15:06
  tonight. Hope they advance.
• 15:08
  But anytime we try to talk about this on the pod as much as I
• 15:10
  can. But anytime you see kind of, you
• 15:13
  know, variables or you just draw a line in the sand and you can
• 15:16
  put some good things on one side and some good things on the
• 15:19
  other or kind of just red flags on both or it's not totally
• 15:23
  clear that everything is lining up in One Direction.
• 15:25
  Like to me, I feel like everything is lining up on this
• 15:28
  under the splits, the system matches the line movement, the
• 15:31
  rhythm, recommended green star play.
• 15:33
  Not everything is lining up on the side.
• 15:35
  It looks pretty split. You could make a case, hey, Rams
• 15:38
  are the clear line move, take the Rams San Fran's inflated
• 15:40
  value plate, take the San Francisco 49ers.
• 15:44
  In cases like that, make the best ideas to lay off.
• 15:47
  So I am just playing the under again.
• 15:50
  I got under 44 1/2 -, 118 right now.
• 15:53
  You can still get under 44 at Caesars and Fanatics at least
• 15:57
  try to get under 44 again because some shops, a lot of
• 16:00
  them actually, are down to 43 1/2.
• 16:02
  But I'll be sweating the under for everyone.
• 16:04
  Let's make it safe. 43 points or less.
• 16:07
  How about a 232320? That'll be a 43.
• 16:13
  That would mean that the the 49ers cover that number.
• 16:16
  Maybe. How about a a 30 to 10 game?
• 16:19
  That would make that land on 4030 to 13.
• 16:22
  Either way, guys, let's get this under here.
• 16:24
  San Fran Rams again. I'm under 44 1/2.
• 16:27
  Looks like your best price now is under 44.
• 16:30
  So that about does it for episode 365 of the All systems
• 16:34
  Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 16:36
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 16:39
  always start first by saying thank you.
• 16:41
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 16:43
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 16:46
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 16:48
  If you do enjoy this pod, I hope you do.
• 16:49
  I hope you find the insights, but please could you give this
• 16:52
  podcast a five star review? Spotify, iTunes, Leave a nice
• 16:56
  comment under the review section, click the follow
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  button. That way you get an alert on
• 17:00
  your phone. As soon as I upload and post the
• 17:02
  pod each day. Recommend the pod to a friend.
• 17:04
  Word of mouth is always a great way to turn someone else on to
• 17:08
  something if they hear it from someone they respect.
• 17:10
  But seriously, thank you for grinding and listening and
• 17:13
  tuning in each day. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 17:16
  bread betting, breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian
• 17:18
  betting, focusing on line movement, split system matches,
• 17:22
  not focusing on what our bias and our opinions are telling us,
• 17:25
  but what the hard numbers are telling us, what the market is
• 17:28
  telling us. If this style of betting has
• 17:30
  kind of turned the light on for you, you now are provided A
• 17:33
  blueprint how to approach, attack and analyze the game.
• 17:36
  You want to let me know you appreciate the pod, or more
• 17:39
  importantly, you want to learn more about betting.
• 17:40
  Or you have someone in your life who needs to learn a little bit
• 17:42
  more about betting, whether they're brand new to betting and
• 17:44
  don't know what a a total versus a parlay is.
• 17:48
  Or maybe you bet a lot, or your friend bets a lot and they lose
• 17:51
  a lot, but they still love it and they want to get better.
• 17:54
  Either way, if you'd like to go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 17:58
  NFL Sharp Betting playbook, that's my second book.
• 18:01
  Super proud of it came out a little bit more than a month
• 18:04
  ago, almost two months ago at this point.
• 18:06
  Boy, this time fly by. But it's got everything I've
• 18:08
  learned about the NFL and a lot of tips and strategies systems
• 18:12
  along the way. I also wrote another book called
• 18:14
  the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 18:16
  If you'd like to buy one or both of my books, you would make me
• 18:19
  very happy. You'd make my publishers happy.
• 18:21
  And you know what I'm going to do in return?
• 18:22
  When I see you at the sports book, I'm going to sign both
• 18:24
  books for you. Buy a beer or ginger ale.
• 18:28
  We'll take a shot for the Rams Rams under tonight.
• 18:30
  How about that? Of course, it does mean a lot,
• 18:34
  especially those of you who've already bought one.
• 18:36
  Please continue to tweet me a photo of the book and if you'd
• 18:39
  like to really make my day, give it a five star review on Amazon,
• 18:42
  which would help us to stay in the in the top rankings.
• 18:46
  Next, have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel yet?
• 18:48
  My two favorite sports betting apps, reminder rhythm rundown 6
• 18:51
  O clock, be there be square literally or figuratively, but
• 18:55
  rhythm great for their AI back models and predictions for game
• 18:58
  bets and player props, as well as again, providing us just
• 19:02
  another box to check like when you're betting a game.
• 19:04
  Actually had someone DM me the other day and they were like, if
• 19:07
  you could only have one thing, the odds logic live odds page,
• 19:10
  the V syn bet splits rhythm or juice reel.
• 19:13
  Like what would you pick? And I tried to say like, I need
• 19:16
  them all like they're all super important to me.
• 19:19
  I would look at rhythm and juice reel as just another box you can
• 19:21
  check off. Like to me, it always starts
• 19:23
  with what the market is doing in terms of line movement, the
• 19:26
  splits, telling you where the public and the sharps are AT and
• 19:28
  then deciphering that info and hopefully adding on a sharp AI
• 19:33
  model based an edge or advantage from Juice Reel and rhythm.
• 19:37
  But you got to go download both. Download rhythm, of course, and
• 19:40
  then go download Juice reel. This part of the pod is when I
• 19:43
  pass the hat. If you enjoy the pod, you want
• 19:46
  to tip your podcast toast, please sign up and get those all
• 19:49
  systems go official best bet picks from the Juice reel app.
• 19:53
  You can get them for $4.99 a week, 5 bucks.
• 19:56
  You get all the plays throughout the week.
• 19:59
  It's actually 7 days of plays. I really never take a day off.
• 20:01
  So you're you're getting best bets for for less than a dollar
• 20:04
  a day and you're also supporting your podcast those which would
• 20:07
  make me happy. But also you're going to get the
• 20:09
  robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 20:12
  arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line futures, all when
• 20:15
  you download rhythm and juice rail and make sure while you're
• 20:17
  at it, give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 20:20
  Next you have a live odds page. If you don't, you need one.
• 20:24
  If you don't have one and you never used it, boy, you don't
• 20:26
  know what you're missing out on. You got to be able to track the
• 20:29
  market, identify quickly which direction line is moved by
• 20:32
  looking at the open column on your odds logic.
• 20:34
  Live odds page never changes, just shows you the opening
• 20:36
  number. Then you look at the current
• 20:38
  numbers across the market. OK, I can see clearly line got
• 20:41
  shot up to the Rams. I can pull up the line history,
• 20:43
  see that there was buy back at 9.
• 20:45
  These little intricacies which are very important, identify
• 20:48
  steam when something gets lit up in red.
• 20:50
  I noticed that total get lit up 45 1/2 down to 44 1/2 down to
• 20:54
  44. Even 43 1/2 you find a book
• 20:57
  that's still hanging a good 44 1/2.
• 20:59
  Boom you can take advantage. Also live scoring, live in game
• 21:02
  wagering. List all the games you can,
• 21:05
  sweat them all and track the market with the odds logic live
• 21:08
  odds page. So give it a shot, I'm pretty
• 21:10
  sure you won't be disappointed. You can get a 7 day free trial
• 21:13
  and 50% off your first month of service if you use the special
• 21:16
  link oddslogic.com/josh 123. Lastly, have you given a shot to
• 21:25
  Novig? If you haven't, that's OK.
• 21:27
  It's a relatively new thing. I partnered with Novig right
• 21:30
  when the NFL season started here.
• 21:32
  But Novig is pretty cool. It gives you basically better
• 21:35
  numbers because instead of betting against the sports book
• 21:39
  who is making you, you know, pay the juice, you're actually
• 21:43
  betting against other betters. So when I lose, I'd rather
• 21:45
  another better get my money than the sports would get my money.
• 21:49
  But because you're not, because you're with the betting
• 21:51
  exchange, not the book, you're getting better prices.
• 21:53
  So, for example, tonight's breakdown, you can get 49ers
• 21:57
  plus 8 1/2 at -1 O 8. You can get Rams -8 1/2 at plus
• 22:02
  one O 5. You're almost always going to
• 22:04
  find juice less than -110 You're talking about the total under 43
• 22:09
  1/2 + 100 / 43 1/2 -. 1 O 3. So you're almost always getting
• 22:14
  better prices because you're operating through a betting
• 22:17
  exchange. So you can always download
• 22:19
  Novig. It's NOVIG.
• 22:22
  And then make sure you use promo code Josh 123 for 100% deposit
• 22:27
  match up to 25 bucks. So if you put in 100 bucks, you
• 22:29
  get 25 for free. Put in 25, you get 25 for free.
• 22:33
  As long as you do 25 or more, they're going to add another 25.
• 22:36
  So get better numbers with Novig.
• 22:38
  And if you win, which I hope you do, you're not going to get
• 22:41
  limited or booted. So that about does it for
• 22:44
  episode 365 of the ASG pod on a huge wild card, do or die
• 22:48
  Thursday. Big big night here tonight with
• 22:51
  Thursday football. But as always, guys, two final
• 22:53
  thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 22:55
  Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 22:58
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, the
• 23:01
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
• 23:04
  the Nash, where I'm at on the border of Massachusetts in New
• 23:07
  Hampshire. Or of course, out in the desert
• 23:09
  where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his
• 23:12
  number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
• 23:14
  South Point. Or sweating.
• 23:16
  Excuse me, sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 23:19
  swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circo.
• 23:21
  You're going to walk up to me and we're just going to, we're
• 23:23
  just going to take a nice dry rag and wipe the sweat off our
• 23:27
  forehead. Show me that.
• 23:28
  Red Sox, Yankees under 7 1/2. I thought that was dead on
• 23:31
  arrival. It was a two to two game four
• 23:33
  run scored in the first 3 innings.
• 23:35
  I'm like, oh, I don't think we're getting this.
• 23:37
  And they're able to hang on and keep that under 7 1/2.
• 23:40
  So boy, sweating playoff totals, man it is.
• 23:44
  It is one way to sweat and man, is it worth it when you cash.
• 23:47
  But boy is it is it taking five years off your life?
• 23:50
  Yes, it is, but anyway, flash me a Red Sox Yankees under 7 and a
• 23:53
  half. First one's on me, next one's on
• 23:55
  you. We'll post about the book and
• 23:56
  sweat the the under tonight for the Rams and the 49ers.
• 24:00
  So as always, guys coming off of 1 and O&O and one a good night,
• 24:03
  a bad night, a just fantastic night, a terrible night.
• 24:07
  Whether we're hot, whether we're cold, we're always grinding when
• 24:10
  we're hot. Never get too arrogant and cocky
• 24:12
  thinking this is easy because it's not when you're cold.
• 24:14
  Don't get down on yourself and depressed because betting is
• 24:17
  hard. So it gives you some perspective
• 24:19
  here to just keep grinding, stay disciplined with your bankroll
• 24:22
  management and just play the system matches as they pop up.
• 24:26
  So again, we're looking for games that fit our model.
• 24:28
  The ones that don't, the ones that have red flags, just let
• 24:30
  them, let them go pass them by. But if those games fit our model
• 24:33
  against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 24:36
  avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 24:39
  to get down and hopefully cash some tickets.
• 24:41
  So as always, guys, I will see you tomorrow.
• 24:46
  It'll be a big Friday episode 366 of the all systems Go sports
• 24:50
  betting pod and we'll unveil our final, final card for this
• 24:53
  weekend for both for both NFL and college.
• 24:56
  So I'm looking forward to it. But as always, guys, have a
• 24:58
  great night and I'll see you tomorrow for episode 366 of the
• 25:02
  all systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 25:06
  Again, see you tonight 6:00 PM for the rhythm rundown and and
• 25:09
  good luck and let's get a low scoring Rams win for the
• 25:13
  survivors out there. Take care, everybody.