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NFL Week 4 Gambling Picks, Gut Check Recovery, Beautiful Board · Three For The Money

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premium membership uh the greatest tool on the
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planet for sports betters uh all right well let's
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uh let's get into it um last week was a bit of
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a gut check week uh it's i feel like there's
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always like week four or five there's always
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that gut check kind of week where Things don't
1:28
go the way that you think like you you question
1:32
your ball -knowing skills and You start to question
1:37
everything but after crunching the numbers actually
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ended up going four and four last week Because
1:46
gave up the Thursday pick that one and I went
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one and one on Monday, and I think only one two
1:53
bets on Sunday. But one of them was my surefire
1:59
pick. Shout out the Eagles and the Bucks. Love
2:03
those guys. Anyway, moving on. I didn't do too
2:07
bad. But Chris, how did you do? Bad. Not doing
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good over here. I went like four and eight, I
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think it was. Lost my surefire to fucking Jackson
2:20
Dart. It was just very bad. And like two of my
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wins on two of my three wins on Sunday, I think
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we're just like late additions. I don't think
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I really even gave out on the show, but yeah,
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it was, it was bad. I was just sitting there
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after the new slate. Just, I, I had one, one
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bet in the new slate and I was adding the you're
2:45
sure fire. Well, and I was just like, what, what
2:47
the fuck am I doing? Like, why am I doing this?
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And the bears blocked a kick to catch their money
2:54
line. That was nice. It was bad. And the Reds
2:57
are probably gonna get swept tonight. So it's
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just, it's, it's bad. That being said, I fucking
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love the board this week. The board looks good.
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I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad
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thing given how I've been doing, did last week.
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Um, so we'll see, but I do love the board this
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week. Um, Sean, how did you do? 2 and 11 oh Lost
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the shirt as scripted Yes Saints just decided
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to show up by the way I Mean what what else do
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you really have to say other than I went to an
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11? Yeah, you know what I mean like the bills
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it looked like there for a minute that they were
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going to cover I kept an eye on that game because
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I mean the Titans Took a big fucking shit on
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the field. So I Don't want to watch that anymore
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At least you didn't bet their team total. Oh,
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yeah, you did Damn did score a point Well, that
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was last week and this is this week and the board
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Looks pretty good. I kind of like this board
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Some of the games that we've chosen to go over
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I am kind of torn on so I do kind of want your
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Your opinions here, but let's let's let's get
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it going First game Niners at the Rams Thursday
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night football Rams favored by seven and a half
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points Brock Purdy out Niners this is there.
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This is one of their injury years. So it's it's
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yeah, it's kind of crazy how that shit works
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out, but I Don't know I'm kind of torn between
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the Niner spread and the under I Because it feels
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like the Niners keep things close because I mean
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they're their defense is still pretty good and
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the Rams Sometimes I feel like I don't know what
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I'm gonna get with the Rams, but Chris I'm gonna
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let you go first here Um, yeah, I'm going under
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44 and a half. Uh, I mean, everyone and their
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mother for San Francisco, other than Christian
5:24
McCaffrey is hurt. I mean, Purdy, uh, Joanne
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Jennings, Ricky Pierce saw Jordan walk in there
5:30
out there down three receivers. That just doesn't
5:34
really happen in the NFL that much. And, um,
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defensive end, Robert Beale and, uh, defensive
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tackle CJ West is questionable. Um, I don't,
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I know Matt Jones is. serviceable, but that often
5:48
sucks with him. Like the last game out when Mack
5:51
had to start, they scored 16 points against the
5:53
Cardinals and the Cardinals are a fine team,
5:55
but they don't, they certainly don't have like
5:57
some other worldly defense. Um, I don't think
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they're going to be able to score a lot of points.
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I think the Rams get a lead and then they just
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feed Karen Williams and run the football. I think
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this game is going to suck. So under 44 and a
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half is my play. Um, Sean, what do you think?
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Oh, muted. Muted. Whoops. OK. Well, first off,
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I want to make sure I'm showing up on the screen.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah. OK, cool. Cool. Because it's
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not showing up on my new setup. So I just want
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to make sure. All right. But after my 2 and 11,
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week 4, coming out strong, Rams minus 7 and 1
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half. Going with the Rams. I think it just really
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comes down to injury. I mean, players are unfortunately
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dropping like flies out in the Bay. And I think
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the Rams are kind of catching fire. Hookah and
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Devante Adams, like, man, they're kind of killing
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it out there, especially with Stafford's back
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injury, which looks fine to me. But besides that,
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this is a clone of Stafford. He died and they
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cloned. Yeah, he he died. This this is test tube
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Stafford. Yes, I am convinced. But. Got a couple
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stats for the boys. First one comes from our
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friends at Trend Center. Trend called fade the
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Niners after a win since 2023. Pretty simple.
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And as we love to say on the show, I will, I
7:31
should have had this pulled up. Just give me
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a second real quick. But spoiler alert, it's
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a straight ass line. I perfect I perfect 13 and
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oh in the last two years. Oh, yeah Straight -ass
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line homie straight -ass line homie even better
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The Rams are 1 and 13 against the spread against
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winning teams and oh and 6 against the spread
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is underdogs Niners it's the Niners the Niners
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are 1 and 3 against spread against winning teams
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and oh and 6 again as underdogs so Fade the Niners,
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take the Rams, and also take that straight ass
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line. That's a straight ass line. We love to
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see straight ass lines over here. So Will, what
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you got? I'm on the under. I was torn between
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the under and the Niners just because the Niners
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seemed to keep games pretty close in the past
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four weeks, even with all their injuries. Think
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I think the under is the play here 44. That's
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like a medium amount of points and Took take
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a Thursday night under go back to my roots go
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back to my roots Yeah, this game probably is
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going to stink but puka and Devante are murdering
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it right now, so Under very much can see The
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Rams getting out to that lead like Chris said
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and just sitting on it But but yeah, okay moving
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on Next game Broncos at the Eagles Eagles favored
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by three and a half points I Guess I'll leave
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this one off I'm taking the Eagles. I have zero
9:31
stats to back this up The Broncos seem to have
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kind of put it together. They really needed that
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Monday night win To kind of just you know get
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back get back together and figure your shit out.
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Um, that game was a, you know, a figure your
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shit out game because the bangles, I mean, they're
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absolutely terrible. Um, and they're going to
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stay terrible, but, um, it does this Eagles team.
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It just feels like they always figure out a way
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to win. It's not always pretty, but they accomplish
10:07
winning. and and covering as well. So it's. It's
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it's just like I I'm riding the hot hand here.
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I'm riding the Eagles minus three and a half.
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Sean, what do you got? To be honest, this game
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had my head more in a pretzel than the Niners
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Rams game did, at least on the spread, but I'm
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going to go under 43 and a half. These are both
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defenses that are, you know. Top half at least
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in points allowed so Denver especially. I mean
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they like to play it slow They keep that clock
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tick tick tick and so that being said I Think
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this under will be a sweat No doubt. I mean this
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could very well be a 24 20 game just barely cashing
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that over but I'm gonna roll the dice. I'm gonna
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take the under my only shred of hope really comes
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from our friends at trend sooner again with The
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trend called AFC West Road unders early PM since
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2021 29 and 14 all -time 8 and 2 in the last
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10 Chris did I take your step? Yeah. Yeah, it's
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great step Yeah, you're taking the under 43 and
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a half Pretty much, I mean, for that stat and
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also, I mean, like Denver's defense is good.
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Philly just wants to run the ball and really
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both teams really just want to run the ball on
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the clock. Um, I think this is going to be a
11:47
rock fight. Probably going to feel like a little
11:49
bit of a playoff game. Just like once somebody
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gets a lead, they're just going to try to like,
11:53
let's just end this as soon as possible. So yeah,
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under 43 and a half. Okay. There it is. Uh, next
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game bucks at the Seahawks Seahawks favored by
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three and a half points. Um, Chris, I'm going
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to let you start this one off. All right. Um,
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Buccaneers plus three and a half. Um, the Buccaneers
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just never, they never quit. Um, I know they
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lost last week that didn't cover, but they were
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in a position to cover after getting smacked
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in the first half, which Just goes to say it
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goes to show they never like you can never count
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them out of a football game. So if you're going
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to give me a plus money or a plus sign next to
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Baker Mayfield, I'm going to take it all day
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and day. Seattle great on the road. I believe
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highlighted that last week when they're going
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to Arizona for Thursday night football. Not good
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at home. They are just four and seven straight
12:51
up and three and eight against the spread at
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home under under McDonald. They're also three
12:56
and seven against the spread. And the last 10
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games after they played the Cardinals, obviously
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it's the last 10 years or so. So, or five years.
13:05
So Buccaneers plus three and a half all damn
13:07
day. Keep around the big show until the wheels
13:10
fall off. I think the Seahawks are at home though.
13:15
Yeah. And that's why I was saying they suck it.
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Oh, Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. So now
13:19
you're good. So yeah. Buccaneers plus three and
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a half. Um, well, what do you think? Uh, I'm
13:25
going over. I'm going over 44 and a half for
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this game. Uh, the bucks, uh, really they, they,
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there's no quit in them. They, it seems like
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if they get down early, they can really make
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that up. They could really come back and kind
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of score at will. Um, if you're a bucks fan,
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you probably want to see them score more earlier
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on, but, um, Hey man, they don't ask how they
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ask how many, um, so Think the Bucks are kind
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of on fire right now the Seahawks Look pretty
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good offensively. I'm not gonna front here The
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last three weeks they've had some some pretty
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they put it been able to put up a really good
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amount of points And I think forty four and a
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half similar to the Thursday night game same
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same total I feel like that's a medium amount
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of points. I think that's pretty fair, but I
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think this over kind of cruises um you know if
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it goes chris's way and uh the bucks come back
14:30
and cover they're gonna have to make up for the
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lead that they didn't have uh and so i feel like
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this is a really good bet i i really like this
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bet um over 44 and a half sean Yes, real quick
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Just want to shout out. I just took the under
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in the the Sox Yankees game that snuck that just
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Sneakily went under which is great boosted that
14:57
put five units on it. We back. All right, so
15:00
So we just came off an under we just talked about
15:04
an under and I agree with you Well, we're going
15:06
over this time over forty four and a half I will
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say that this line the spread at least opened
15:14
at two and a half and I almost grabbed it with
15:17
the Hawks and minus two and a half there. But
15:20
I do think the Bucks do kind of take a bit of
15:24
a slide this week. But this game can easily go
15:29
over. I think the Bucks got some even though
15:31
they've got some injury problems. Both teams
15:34
do have some big offensive weapons. I mean, Seattle's
15:38
averaging almost. 29 points per game. It's almost
15:42
at that 30 And the bake show really starts to
15:45
cook in the second half So give me the over over
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44 and a half enough said everything will said
15:51
great Take the over Yes, take the over Let's
15:58
see next game Sunday night football the Patriots
16:03
at the Buffalo Bills Bills favored by eight and
16:07
a half in this game I'm rethinking my pick at
16:13
this very moment. So I am going to throw it to
16:17
to Sean first for this one Fuck All right, I'll
16:23
take it Well, I think points are just gonna be
16:26
flying in week five. So I'm gonna go over 50
16:29
and a half I kind of think this game cruises
16:33
with ease Neither defense has impressed a single
16:37
soul on earth but the offense on both sides of
16:42
the ball have been nothing but efficient. I know
16:45
we're big, big, big fans of prime time divisional
16:49
unders here, but once again, turning to our friends
16:54
at the Trends Center, Bill's home overs after
16:57
a win of 10 or more, 15 -3 -1 all time, 9 -0
17:02
-1 in the last 10. Numbers don't lie, fellas,
17:05
take the over. I also believe this is their,
17:08
like, new uniform thing. So like a uniform bet,
17:13
partially the bills are doing or the, I don't
17:15
know if the Patriots are also, but I know the
17:17
bills are doing it. Yeah. That it's like a snow
17:21
white light. Yeah. It looks kind of crisp. I'm
17:24
not going to lie, but kind of like it, but a
17:27
partial uniform bet, but also let's just, let's
17:32
just let it fly over 50 and a half. Uh, Chris,
17:35
what do you got taking the Patriots plus eight
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and a half. This feels just like a classic Mike
17:41
Vrabel spot. How many times of the Titans did
17:44
we have no business competing in a football game
17:46
against a really good team? And we either kept
17:49
it close or one outright. I think vibes are high
17:54
in New England after bitch slapping the Panthers
17:57
like most teams do, but still 42 -13, nothing
18:00
to scoff at. Eight and a halfs, a lot of points
18:04
for a divisional game, especially prime time.
18:07
And also, Bill's kind of been playing with their
18:09
food a little bit lately at the end of games.
18:12
They definitely could have whomped New Orleans,
18:16
didn't let them hang around. Obviously they still
18:19
won by double digits, but also same thing with
18:21
the Dolphins. Dolphins aren't really that good.
18:23
They let them hang around. They won by 10, but
18:27
they kicked a field goal with like 30 seconds
18:30
left just because they had to. So I think Patriots
18:34
keep it close. I think Grable gets the boys amped
18:36
up. I can keep it within a touchdown. Yeah, pictures
18:40
plus eight and a half. Will, have you made up
18:42
your mind yet? Yes, I'm going with my original
18:45
pick. I was also on the over 49 and a half. Yes,
18:52
that was my line of thinking. Thank you, Sean,
18:55
for reminding me. I should have written it down.
18:57
But yes, the Bills, their defense, not that great.
19:01
The Pats looked pretty good against the Panthers,
19:05
which is easy to do. But it does seem like the
19:10
Patriots are kind of putting it together a little
19:13
bit here in this year one of Mike Vrabel as the
19:17
head coach. And so it's just like the Bills can
19:22
score at will. Super Josh, he can do anything.
19:28
And the The Pats seem to put it together their
19:31
defense, obviously not that great. Even if it
19:33
was if it was good, the Bills can definitely
19:35
score. We've seen that the past four weeks. So
19:39
I'm on that over over forty nine and a half.
19:43
OK, moving on next game, Monday Night Football,
19:48
the Kansas City Chiefs at the Jacksonville Jaguars,
19:53
the Jags three and a half home dogs. This is
19:59
a interesting game. It feels like the Chiefs
20:03
are kind of putting it together. I think Rashid
20:07
Rice is back because it is only a four game suspension.
20:12
Six games. Six? Well, then he's not back. Yeah.
20:17
Okay. But it kind of feels like the Chiefs are
20:22
back. That being said. you know the the it's
20:27
it's very clear that the Ravens defense is kind
20:30
of bode um so we're still it's still early in
20:34
the season we're still learning about these teams
20:36
so um we'll uh we'll see uh we'll see that how
20:40
how that pans out but uh i will take this one
20:43
um it to me this feels like another over I'm
20:49
taking over 46 and a half. It feels like both
20:53
of these teams are really really figuring it
20:55
out the Jags kind of good In recent weeks being
21:02
able to score some points put some points on
21:05
the board and I really wanted to stay away from
21:09
the spread because like The past few years like
21:15
the Chiefs are just so unpredictable on the spread
21:17
like They they win games by by the hair of their
21:21
chinny chin chin And the Jags, I don't really
21:25
want to bet on them. So I'm taking over 46 and
21:29
a half. It feels like both these teams are really
21:31
putting it together Yeah, and I hope I hope it's
21:37
a good game because I mean I'll be watching either
21:39
way Chris, what do you think about this game?
21:43
Give me the Chiefs minus three and a half all
21:45
damn day I disagree with you. Well, I do not
21:48
think the Jags are that good. They're three and
21:50
one. Let's look at who they beat. Carolina. Whoop
21:53
-de -doo. Everyone does that. Houston. They can't
21:56
move the football at all. And like an injury
21:59
riddled San Francisco team. Whoop -de -doo. They
22:03
also blew a lead to Jake Browning, who we've
22:06
come to relearn is bad. I still think they're
22:12
that good a football team, Kansas City. Like
22:14
you said, uh, they're kind of putting it together.
22:16
They Molly walked the Ravens last week. Xavier
22:19
Worthing's back. That offense is kind of turning
22:22
along again. Um, I think this is, they don't
22:26
really need a get right spot, but they need to
22:29
kind of take the next step and like, okay, we're
22:32
back to being the chiefs. And I think a win by
22:36
a touchdown or more on Monday night football
22:38
against. Overrated Jags team is perfect time
22:42
to do it. So yes chiefs minus three and a half
22:45
all damn day I love this play Sean. What do you
22:49
take? I'm also on the chiefs. I faded them last
22:53
week very stupidly Yeah, they just kind of Molly
23:00
walk the Ravens didn't they um, but yeah, I think
23:04
this is a good Get right. I think I know we're
23:08
not throwing that term around is, you know, but
23:11
I think this is a, as good of a get right spot
23:15
as you can get for the, for the chiefs at this
23:18
point in the season, um, you know, go into Jacksonville,
23:23
just Molly WAP on the Schitzenville Jaguars and
23:26
just come back home and, you know, just business
23:30
as usual for the chiefs. I think this is just
23:33
a business trip for him. Go down there. Put some
23:38
points on the board, get out. So I do like the
23:41
over. Um, since it's Monday night, I'll probably
23:45
double dip. Just these private time games. I
23:47
always like to like, I always have to have more
23:50
than one bet because it's, it's the only game
23:53
on what else am I going to do? So actually I'll
24:01
probably regardless. I know, but it depends how
24:04
Sunday goes. If I get taken to the woodshed again.
24:06
I'm going to have to earn it all back. So I'm
24:08
going to have like seven bets or if I'm hot,
24:11
if I do really good, I'm like, well, let's ride
24:13
the hot hand. I'm just going to have seven more
24:16
bets. Yeah. And, uh, you know that, yeah. So,
24:22
um, yeah, give me the chiefs. Okay. Uh, there
24:27
it is. That's the main slate of games. We're
24:28
going to talk about moving on to everyone's favorite
24:31
segment of the week. The sure fire picks. Guaranteed
24:36
double unit not to lose plays of the week. I
24:41
will start it off because I have a stat And my
24:48
surefire this week is the over in the Bucks Seahawks
24:52
game Game we already talked about We went into
24:55
it, but my notes I have some more notes Tristan
24:58
worse probably returning one of their best offensive
25:01
lineman. I looked into that Bucks have scored
25:05
20 or more points in the last four weeks Seahawks
25:08
have great offensive potential scoring 23 44
25:13
and 31 for the last three weeks I Really really
25:18
I fucking love this pick. I'm gonna be real I
25:22
feel like bucks overs are are gonna be money
25:24
plays for for this year, but my stat Brought
25:30
to you by the Trends Center app Late afternoon,
25:32
small home favorites three and a half to four
25:35
and a half overs. 7734 and three. All time score
25:43
of 100. Give me the over. I love it. Moving on.
25:49
Chris, what is your surefire pick of the week?
25:53
Alright, guy get back in the wind column after
25:55
last week's embarrassing performance like you
25:59
is a game we. have discussed already and it's
26:02
the cheapest minus three and a half little monday
26:04
night sure fire um for everything i just said
26:08
and i also have a stat from our good friends
26:11
at trend center called road fave stay hungry
26:13
um it has 10 conditions i am not going to read
26:17
them all because that's awful um but all you
26:21
really need to know is that over the last 22
26:23
years this trend is 111 46 and five that is a
26:27
70 win rate six and four in the last 10. It doesn't
26:31
really matter the conditions. This trend wins
26:34
and the Chiefs are also partial to winning as
26:38
well. So give me my three and a half on the Chiefs
26:42
road favorite against against the Jacks. I love
26:45
it. Monday night double unit. What could go wrong?
26:49
Sean, what do you like? I'm on another big spread
26:54
for this week. And you know how well it worked
26:59
last week, but fuck it. We're 0 and 5 on these,
27:01
so we might as well swing for the fences, boys.
27:04
The Detroit Lions minus 10 and a half against
27:09
the Cincinnati Bengals. In Cincinnati, this is
27:15
a crazy line to be an away team. You know what
27:20
I mean? This is a crazy line. But the Bengals
27:24
stink right now. They've got a trade for James
27:30
or Russ electric if they traded for James. Yeah,
27:34
anyway Go ahead We've got another straight -ass
27:39
line It is lions against the spread after win
27:45
and scoring 34 plus points in previous game 18
27:50
oh and one in the last eight years 18 game win
27:54
streak 10 and oh and it's last 10 Give this to
27:57
me all day. And that's not all. Lions after win
28:02
by a touchdown or more, 24 and five. Lions cover
28:09
again, I don't know these conditions, but these
28:11
are 20 and three all time. There's just some
28:17
great, just download the Trends Center app. You
28:20
can see all these trends for yourself. Use the
28:22
code TFTM on checkout and dude. There are some
28:27
great line spreads out here. I can't read these
28:29
all, but man. So maybe I'll win one of these
28:34
fucking things. So God forbid, if this doesn't
28:38
hit, I am truly cursed. And this is not anybody's
28:41
fault, but my own. It's okay, buddy. I'm getting
28:47
real, getting real sad about not hitting one
28:51
of these things. It hasn't happened. You just
28:53
do. You just do. You're the most do man. In America,
28:58
maybe some, some are saying, yeah, some are saying,
29:03
but not me. You just do. All right. Those are
29:07
the sure fire plays, uh, parlay them all. I don't
29:11
know what that is. Uh, but I know it's a winner.
29:14
Uh, I guess I will be double dipping on Monday
29:17
night of football considering Chris is, uh, Chris's
29:20
pick is achieves minus three and a half. So I
29:22
now have two things to root for. Um, Okay, moving
29:27
on to the extra plays of the week So the parlay
29:31
gets to Monday night, first of all, right? Yeah,
29:34
really? Moving on extra plays Let's see Sean.
29:41
What are your extra plays of the week? All right
29:45
First off we're gonna start out with kind of
29:47
a stinker Dallas Cowboys minus two and a half
29:50
at the New York Jets I think Dallas has been
29:54
This is a get right game for Dallas. I mean the
29:56
Jets. Stink they stink right now. They've got
29:59
some major issues in the at the QB slot. Their
30:03
run game has struggled to break any kind of big
30:06
plays. I think the Cowboys defense should bounce
30:09
back from from last week. And I. A 4040 tie that
30:18
doesn't sit right with me. Scoragami. Yeah, but.
30:23
That's crazy. It's a crazy fucking score. Yeah
30:29
What else I got oh we got to go across the pond
30:34
boys For the second Vikings game across the pond.
30:39
I'm going to go Vikings minus three and a half
30:41
against the Browns I think this is a huge edge
30:45
that the Vikings have against the Browns. I Think
30:49
the Browns are missing like they're starting
30:51
tackles So The Vikings Do it you could Not really
31:01
say this after last week, but I think the Vikings
31:03
still have a very very top five defense And the
31:09
Browns just Stink I know that they made the QB
31:14
change this morning from from Joe Flacco to Dylan
31:19
Gabriel so Let's hope that this like, you know,
31:25
energy that these rookie QBs give off in their
31:28
in their midseason, if they get like a midseason
31:32
start in these games, I hope they don't just
31:35
go off. But we're going with the Vikings across
31:39
the pond. And then do I want to do this? Yeah,
31:47
they upset me last week, but are rocking with
31:51
them. Chargers minus two and a half against the
31:52
commanders. I think Chargers are too good to
31:57
drop two in a row. You know what I mean? They're
32:01
too good, especially against two NFC East teams
32:05
like that. Chargers being favored by a little
32:13
under three. I like it. Makes me nervous. But
32:17
it's Jayden Daniels playing. I assume he has
32:19
it. It's two and a half. Yes. He was cleared
32:21
to play. Yeah. So we'll see, but I'm not really
32:27
too confident in that one, but I'm going to take
32:29
it because it's a football game and it's on TV.
32:34
Yes. So why not? Of course. Sorry. I didn't,
32:39
I didn't really have time to put together all
32:42
these picks you guys know i've had a very busy
32:44
day so um but those are my extra plays that's
32:47
my surefire pick uh let's go let's go on to will
32:51
what are your extra plays i have three extra
32:56
plays normally only i have one or two um but
32:59
like i said at the beginning i low key love the
33:02
board um First one lines minus ten and a half
33:06
versus the Bengals. I had that one written down
33:08
glad it's your surefire Bengals they're dog shit
33:14
they like They're gonna they're whoever goes
33:18
in at QB is gonna get murdered. It's and their
33:21
defense is absolutely terrible They don't have
33:24
any talent at QB to even utilize their their
33:28
their star wide receiver. So Not looking good
33:32
for them The Lions I feel like they just beat
33:36
the shit out of everyone or they lose There really
33:39
is no in -between so Love the Lions minus ten
33:44
and a half here next game Vikings Browns This
33:50
might be a surprise total set at thirty six and
33:53
a half. I'm taking the under Everyone is going
34:02
to be on this, on this over because they're going
34:06
to think the Vikings have been there for a week.
34:09
They have adjusted. Um, the Browns stink, but
34:14
also the Browns do stink, but their defense,
34:17
uh, it kind of rocks their defense, but not last
34:21
week. Um, obviously yeah. So I feel like these
34:27
middle of the road teams, the Browns defense,
34:30
uh, I don't wanna say take over, but it shines.
34:35
It shines in these moments. I can see this being
34:38
a very, very low scoring game. Everyone's gonna
34:42
be on the over, so the under is the play. And
34:44
it's so low, it's kind of like, I mean, I gotta
34:48
take the under here. Just the crisscross play.
34:53
I remember a couple years ago when we were still
34:55
living together, there was some... ass game that
35:00
was on. It was like Thursday night football and
35:02
it was like the Saints with like their third
35:05
string QB versus like, I think it was like the
35:07
Broncos when they were really bad. Are you thinking
35:10
of COVID? Wasn't it like 29 and a half? It was
35:15
33 and a half. If you're, if we're thinking of
35:18
the same game, yeah, it was during COVID. The
35:21
entire Broncos quarterback room had COVID. So
35:24
they started a wide receiver at quarterback.
35:26
who hadn't played the position since high school.
35:29
I remember you two took the over and I was like,
35:33
it's, it's not going to hit. And you were like,
35:35
both of you were like, it, it's so low. It, it
35:38
has to hit. I think that game ended like nine
35:41
to six. It was 30. No, it was, the total was
35:44
33 and a half and ended 30 to three saints. Yeah.
35:49
I was like, this is, I remember just being devastated.
35:52
Yeah. They go under, but yeah, that. Yeah, no,
35:56
I remember that game vividly. Yeah, I I think
35:59
I stayed away from that game, but I was like.
36:03
That this is going to go under like it's so silly.
36:06
It's so the line is so low it's going to go under.
36:11
I remember that game at all. I remember it vividly.
36:15
I remember you sure awful. I remember you two
36:18
on the couch visibly. And verbally upset. It
36:26
sounds right. I'm just saying like COVID was
36:29
a blur, man. We made that pandemic a blur. My
36:37
last pick, I'm going back to a well that we hit
36:41
last year. That's Mander's Overs. I'm going over
36:45
47 and a half Mander's at the Chargers. The Chargers,
36:50
very good team. Unfortunately, they lost to the
36:53
Giants and that was a weird game, but It's the
37:00
the Manders are in the spot that they are so
37:03
familiar with their defense stinks and Jade and
37:07
Daniels Is is good. I mean he's good at QB. He's
37:11
good at his job And so in order for the Manders
37:15
to keep up with the Chargers, they're gonna have
37:17
to put up some points I like the over in this
37:20
game I think the Chargers also had a decent amount
37:23
of, of injuries in that, uh, in that Giants game
37:25
as well, if I remember correctly, but, uh, yeah,
37:28
all I have written down is like Daniel's returning,
37:31
uh, need to put up points in order to cover up
37:33
for the bad defense. Um, those are my three plays.
37:37
I love the board. Chris, what do you got? All
37:40
right. I am also going across the pond. I am
37:43
taking Vikings minus four and a half. Um, jealous
37:46
of Sean getting three and a half, but I, I still
37:48
like four and a half. Um, It's three and a half
37:50
right now. Uh, not. Oh, I just looked on DraftKings.
37:54
It was four and a half. On Schmeich and Schmuel
37:58
it's three and a half. All right. Then Vikings
38:00
minus three and a half. Um, I think this game
38:03
is going to suck. Uh, Dylan Gabriel, I don't
38:05
think is going to be a very good NFL quarterback.
38:09
Uh, Minnesota does have a good defense despite
38:12
just kind of, um, kind of what happened last
38:14
week, but it's a London game. You kind of. I
38:17
don't want to say throw those out, but take it
38:18
with a grain of salt. You can't really say that
38:21
this week though, cause they've been there for
38:23
a week and a half now. I don't know when the
38:25
Browns are getting there, but, um, I think Brian
38:28
floors will scheme up some blitzes to get after
38:30
Gabriel. Um, this game I think is going to be
38:33
a snoozer. I think I see this being like 17 to
38:36
three Vikings or something like that. So I like
38:39
your underplay as well. That's just, it's too
38:41
low for me to mess around with. It's also a bit
38:45
of a silly play. It's my my game play of the
38:48
week. No, I get it. It's like, if you see a total
38:52
that low, you have to take it. We've learned
38:55
it. If that story what you said is true, which
38:59
I believe it is. But if we learn from experience,
39:04
if you see a total that low, you have to take
39:05
it. It's just like when I take these highest
39:08
totals, like when it like, what's the what's
39:13
the bills, Patriots, it's 50 and a half like
39:16
You have to take that over. There's no reason
39:18
why that line is set that high. There's no reason
39:20
why that line is set that low. You have to take
39:23
that under, you know what I mean? Yes. Yeah.
39:28
So it's fun. Yeah. I'm just, I'm staying away
39:31
from the torch because I don't like it being
39:34
that low, but I, it will be low scoring. I like
39:36
Vikings minus four and a half lions. Um, I don't
39:40
love a double digit spread on the road. So I'm
39:44
attacking this game. From a different angle.
39:46
I think this is the first bet we've ever had
39:48
of this kind on this show. Lions, over three
39:52
and a half touchdowns. Cincinnati's D is abysmal.
39:59
Like we knew that was going to happen. And the
40:01
Lions are surprised, really fucking good football
40:04
team. They've scored four touchdowns in three
40:06
games straight. I think they, I mean, it's not
40:11
out of the realm of possibility this hits by
40:13
halftime. Yes. So yeah, I love that. Um, I didn't
40:18
even know that was a bet. I was just kind of
40:20
like, I don't love 10. I was thinking about team
40:22
total and I was on like the team props and I
40:25
saw that and I was like, Ooh, yes, please. So
40:28
yes, lions over three and a half touchdowns.
40:32
I hate this one. Saints money line against the
40:35
giants. Um, this is a bit of a contrarian play
40:39
because we just saw Jackson dart. Ball out against
40:43
the Los Angeles chargers, gets his first win
40:46
in pretty convincing fashion. Um, he's really
40:50
good. The giants are kind of back, right? Why
40:53
are they dogs to the God awful New Orleans saints?
40:56
I know they lost Malik neighbors, but it's Malik
40:58
neighbors worth that many points. Like, I know
41:01
he's a, he's still a wide receiver. Like wide
41:03
receivers aren't worth that much in the NFL for
41:05
a point spread standpoint, saints, money line.
41:09
Um, this is probably. One of the few games these
41:13
players know they can actually win Obviously
41:17
they're going to be trying in every single game,
41:19
but I think games like this. They're like, okay,
41:21
we gotta get this one Yes, not too many of these
41:25
opportunities to come around so Saints Moneyline
41:28
and then we'll close out with One of my personal
41:31
favorite stats that I found this week if I can
41:33
get back into my phone It is the Colts minus
41:36
seven against Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders suck.
41:40
Gino is terrible. Um, that team's a mess, but
41:45
I found this trend on the trend center. Colts
41:47
week five against the spread. So obviously when
41:52
the Colts are playing in week five and the spread
41:56
is, is between 10 and seven, they are 23, six
42:01
and one against the spread nine and one in the
42:06
last 10. So give me the calls minus seven all
42:09
damn day to round out the card I love this board.
42:13
I initially had close to like I think was over
42:16
ten plays written down But I was like I got a
42:20
ran it and I was god -awful last week So we can't
42:22
be spraying the board after that. But um, yeah,
42:26
I love this. I love the board. I love this card
42:28
Let's just win them all let's make up for last
42:31
week. Let's win them all I Am going to add the
42:35
Saints money line I was looking into that game
42:39
earlier today and Surprisingly the Saints also
42:43
have like a top 10 run defense. So even if they
42:47
go on the ground with scataboo I don't think
42:50
he's gonna, you know do all that much so kind
42:54
of love it It's it's like one of those cheeky
42:58
plays like we had with the Bears last week so
43:01
I Hopefully we won't need a blocked field goal
43:05
at the end of the game to win it. But man, out
43:08
of my two bets that I won last week, that was
43:11
the best one. That was great. That was the best
43:14
one. But I was just sitting there. I mean, I
43:18
didn't really watch until the very end because
43:20
I couldn't. But I was just like, why did I bet
43:23
on the... fucking bears. This team sucks. What
43:26
am I doing? And they blocked I feel goes like,
43:28
yes, they were the right side all along. Let's
43:31
go. Well, I remember, I gave like my reasoning
43:37
on the show for taking the bears and then you
43:40
immediately were just like adding it. And I was
43:42
like, these the bears better not fucking lose
43:44
this game. Like, that's all I was thinking I
43:47
was like, God damn it. When I was looking at
43:50
my notes, like making my card. I saw like, I
43:53
had bears in my life written down, but there's
43:55
like no explanation written towards it. So I
43:57
was like, okay, I just add someone had a good
43:59
reason. So I'm putting my faith in whoever. There's
44:04
so many blocked field goals this year. I mean,
44:09
there's been four already through four weeks.
44:13
I feel like, I feel like there's never been that
44:16
much in a year. Yeah. Two of them were returned
44:21
for touchdowns. And the same like almost like
44:24
an hour apart from each other. That's crazy.
44:29
That's it's just like, why is this happening?
44:33
players getting better, I guess. I don't know.
44:37
Whatever. Okay. Oh, that's that's the the slate.
44:42
Yes, Chris. I have something I want to bring
44:44
up because I after or when I was doing research
44:48
today, I saw across a Crazy trend on trend center
44:52
that I just want to talk to you guys about see
44:54
if see if we add it or not All right, okay, let's
44:58
break it down. Okay, so This trend is called
45:02
winless away negative point differential non
45:05
-divisional. It's got a shit ton of Condition
45:08
so I'm not gonna read them all the record is
45:10
95 37 and 1 9 & 0 in the last 10 has won 21 straight
45:17
times The only reason I am not betting my mortgage
45:23
on this is the team that it is active on. It's
45:27
the Titans, isn't it? It is the Tennessee Titans.
45:29
Fuck me. Plus eight against the Arizona Cardinals.
45:35
I know the old saying bet numbers, not teams.
45:39
I don't know if that takes into account that
45:42
the team is generationally dog shit. put money
45:48
on this team, mainly the offense last week. And
45:52
we know that one. What do we think? I'm not doing
45:59
it. OK, it's just like at this point in my life,
46:04
it's just a principal thing. I cannot put money
46:07
on this team. I understand if you do or if Sean
46:13
does, I will not think less of you, but it's
46:17
just. I just can't do it. I can't. I cannot put
46:21
money on on this team because we are so bad.
46:26
We may not win a game this year. That's that's
46:31
yeah, that's why I was like, OK, I need to talk
46:34
about this. But Sean, what do you think? Yeah,
46:38
it's it's exactly what we'll say. It's the it's
46:40
the principle of the matter. It's principle it
46:45
I have enough I have. a hard enough time just
46:48
watching this team every single week that I don't
46:52
need a financial commitment for them to at least
46:57
lose by seven points. I need, I need them to
47:01
win. So I don't need, I don't need the, you know
47:05
what I mean, but don't give me that look. No,
47:08
I get what you're saying. Like as a fan, yes,
47:10
but we know that's not gonna happen. I know that's
47:13
not gonna happen. I know that's not gonna happen.
47:17
But like even like It does it still doesn't feel
47:22
right even hedging joy out of a loss You know
47:26
what I mean, but we're betting on them. So it's
47:29
like they could win and we win this bet so Great,
47:33
but they're not going to that's the yeah. Yeah,
47:36
I Just I'm staring at this right now and I just
47:40
see the W 21 and I'm like God That's that but
47:46
also how Titans? What a Titans move to fuck up
47:50
something like exactly. That's exactly what I
47:53
was gonna say It was like this is gonna be the
47:55
this is gonna be the game that ends the streak
47:57
because the Titans are on an all -time low Okay,
48:04
we we as a franchise are breaking records of
48:08
how bad we are Yeah, I mean last year we had
48:11
historically the worst against the spread record
48:15
Ever. Yeah. Two in 15, I believe. Yeah. Something
48:18
like that. Yeah. And like no, no other team has
48:23
covered less. Yeah. Games. We're already halfway
48:28
to that though. We covered week one. Oh yeah.
48:34
We did. We're eight point dogs and we lost by.
48:38
We lost by eight. Was it eight or eight? It was
48:41
eight and a half. We were eight and a half point
48:43
dogs and we lost by eight. Yeah. So, okay. I'm
48:46
not, I'm not going to bet it then. Just don't,
48:48
just don't touch it. I think this, I think this
48:51
team just causes enough turmoil. And if, if they're
48:55
the reason why they lose this streak, that's
48:58
just going to put another, another taste of sour
49:01
in your mouth. And it's just it, I don't think
49:04
I'm going to touch a Titans game the entire year
49:08
because there's no point. They are. They caused
49:12
me enough emotional turmoil. I don't need to
49:14
add financial turmoil on top of that. Exactly.
49:22
If you guys remember last year, we were so bad.
49:29
But like, there were a fuckload of trends every
49:33
week that backed the Titans. Because like, I
49:38
mean, statistically, you think, hey, they can't
49:41
be they got to, you know, win a game eventually.
49:44
And that's, that's essentially where the trends
49:48
came from. And so it's like, no, we don't. We
49:54
don't have to. We don't have to win one eventually.
49:57
Yeah, that's, I've seen that kind of start to
50:02
repeat itself. People just like on gambling shows
50:06
and stuff that I watched me like, there's still
50:08
a professional football team like They're not
50:11
gonna win but keep it within eight and a half
50:13
whatever But yeah, I mean this I mean This team
50:19
is so fucking bad. So yeah, I'm not touching
50:21
it. I just saw that and I was like I gotta bring
50:24
it up Right now it's great you did but yeah If
50:31
they cover awesome, I'm not It's one of those
50:35
things. It's like when you know you're betting
50:38
on the better team But they end up not covering.
50:41
You're like, okay, I bet on the better team.
50:45
Shit just happened. They didn't cover whatever.
50:47
You can still sleep well at night. I will sleep
50:49
well at night. If this does cover not betting
50:53
it being like, I didn't bet on this dumpster
50:55
fire of a franchise. And that is the smart move.
51:01
Yes. We are failing cam ward. Yeah. It's it's
51:09
bad. It's awful. It's everything is terrible.
51:11
Like there's not as special teams is the only
51:14
aspect you can point out to be like It's better
51:18
than last year. Everything else is Significantly
51:21
worse. Well defense isn't significant. It's worse,
51:24
but it's not bottoming out. Yeah We can't move
51:28
the fucking football. We're running it on third
51:30
and 12 Every coach on this staff other than Fassel
51:38
or fossil, whatever is the special teams coordinator
51:40
is a fucking idiot. Like all of them are dipshits.
51:47
I. I'm a Denard Wilson stand. I think he's good.
51:53
I feel like we're with the players that we have.
51:57
I feel like we're our defense is doing. Yeah.
52:01
Good fine. Don Wilson is good. Yeah, I don't
52:04
mean to lump him. I mainly meant offensive. I
52:06
don't want me to lump him in because the defense
52:08
is. Doing the best they can with what they have.
52:12
I mean, Cedric Gray Gray has turned out to be
52:14
like pretty damn good football player. Can't
52:15
wait till we trade him to the Broncos for a six
52:17
round pick in a couple weeks, but I mean this.
52:22
I don't there must have been something inside
52:25
with with Brownlee. That's what I've heard. I
52:28
read. some like scouting report on him from the
52:31
draft. And it was like some anonymous NFL scouter
52:34
GM was like, we're not touching this guy. He's
52:36
like a, I think the phrase was actually locker
52:39
room cancer. Like he's a jackass. And you kind
52:43
of got that from his interviews when it was like,
52:45
Hey, what are you going to do to stop making
52:48
such dipshit penalties? And he was like, nothing.
52:51
I'm just going to keep playing my, my, my style.
52:53
It's like, okay, well that's not fucking working.
52:57
You're getting like two penalties a game. He
53:00
was the one committing the most penalties and
53:02
they were like, cut it out. And he said, no.
53:05
Yeah. And they were like, you can go play with
53:06
the jets into a microphone. He was like, Hey,
53:09
Hey man, you're committing a lot of penalties.
53:11
Maybe stop. And he's like, nah, not even like
53:15
a, yeah, that's just my style. I play hard, but
53:18
I get to work on, you know, ran it in a little
53:20
bit, blah, blah, blah. He's just like, nah. Yeah.
53:24
I'm gonna keep getting terrible PI calls and
53:26
costing us games. Jesus Christ. It's like when,
53:32
when he didn't take penalties, it was like, no,
53:34
this guy's pretty good. Yeah. But he's just every
53:38
other play when he wasn't taking a penalty. Yeah,
53:40
it was pretty good. Yeah. But yeah, I wasn't,
53:44
I was surprised when that can't, when like the
53:47
news of that trade broke. But then like, when
53:49
I read up a like, why I was like, okay, that
53:52
makes this guy does kind of seem like a tool.
53:55
Yeah. Never met him. I could be totally wrong,
53:58
but just from the interviews and stuff I read,
54:02
he seemed like maybe the right call. He's not
54:05
like, he's also like not a generational talent
54:07
or anything. Like he's, he's a serviceable corner
54:11
on one of the worst football teams in the NFL.
54:14
So like he's not sauce garden or anything. Yeah.
54:19
Did you, uh, did you see, um, the, the series
54:23
of interviews with luxurious need? Fuck that
54:27
guy, man. How are you going to guard Nico Collins?
54:31
Who? Who? And then after the game, he got fucking
54:34
cooked. And then they were like, what could you
54:37
have done better to to guard Nico or something
54:41
like that? And he was like, man, I think what's
54:46
important is I can't remember exactly what he
54:49
said, but he essentially was like, who gets paid
54:51
more money, though? It's like, that is a fucking
54:54
terrible thing to say. I mean, yeah, he let me
54:58
what essentially, you're getting paid more money
55:01
than him. Yeah. And what essentially sealed the
55:03
gate, what essentially sealed the game for us
55:05
was when he just ran by Snead on like the second
55:10
or third and like 22 and was wide open on to
55:14
the go route. And that was after that, they just
55:17
ran away with, I mean, it was pretty much over
55:18
to begin with, but that kind of, they ran away
55:21
with it after that. drive. And I'm just like,
55:25
I think I sat in a message to our group me. I
55:26
was like, this guy's fucking worth this. He's
55:29
like traffic coming out there. He doesn't do
55:30
shit. Yeah. So yeah, I fucking, I hate everyone
55:35
on this team except and Tony Pollard are like,
55:39
and he's actually like, yeah, and Jeff, even
55:43
though he can be a bonehead sometimes too, but
55:46
Tony Pollard quietly putting together pretty
55:48
solid year. I love Elick. Yeah, he looks he's
55:54
a dog. Yeah, that's kind of it though. Yeah All
56:02
right, I'm gonna I'm gonna rap is that all right
56:05
go with me All right, yeah, yeah sorry Doing
56:14
a podcast right doing other things. Sorry All
56:19
right. Thank you so much for listening and watching.
56:21
Really appreciate it. Like, comment, subscribe.
56:24
Any interaction with this really helps us out.
56:26
Follow us on X. See the updated pics there. It's
56:31
all happening on X. It's the everything app.
56:36
Follow us on X for updated pics. See y 'all next
56:45
week. There's three of us. Now let's make some
56:47
money. I love that Twitter's been renamed eggs
56:53
for like over, at least over a year, if not two,
56:57
and that's the first time we've called it eggs.