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NATO Tries to Keep Trump Onside · Balance of Power

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the
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Speaker 2: Kaylee lines alongside Joe Matthew in Washington. But it's Kora
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Speaker 2: that we have our eyes on at the moment, as
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Speaker 2: the NATO Summit is underway in Turkey, and right now
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Speaker 2: leaders of NATO countries are walking in to a dinner
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Speaker 2: as the proceedings get going here. A lot of pomp
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Speaker 2: circumstances involved in the arrivals themselves. Of course, the host
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Speaker 2: country of NATO, Turkey and its president, rejep Tite Airdowan,
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Speaker 2: are part of the reason why President Trump is in
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Speaker 2: attendance at this NATO summit. He has suggested its favor
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Speaker 2: to Airedwan, essentially that he decided to join with everyone
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Speaker 2: else over the course of these few days, and we
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Speaker 2: did see bilateral meeting happening between him and Erduwan earlier today,
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Speaker 2: just after the President was wheels down in Turkey where
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Speaker 2: he was asked about that relationship, in particulars Turkey about
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Speaker 2: the ass it's the decision.
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Speaker 3: We're going to make a very good relationship.
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Speaker 4: I would think that many.
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Speaker 5: People are contending. Many people, including the people sitting right here, thinks,
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Speaker 5: you know, why wouldn't we do that. We have a
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Speaker 5: better relationship with Turkey, and turkeysmen in many ways much
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Speaker 5: more loyal than other countries that we think it would
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Speaker 5: be loyal.
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Speaker 3: So something we would consider. It's a great plane, it's
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Speaker 3: the best currently, the best plane my father, and certainly
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Speaker 3: something we were.
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Speaker 6: Considered a little difficult to hear the president there, who
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Speaker 6: was some distance away from reporters. We need to get
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Speaker 6: a better boom mic I think in Turkey. He did
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Speaker 6: say Turkey has in many ways been much more loyal
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Speaker 6: than other countries that we would think would be loyal.
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Speaker 6: So we got some things we would consider, and it
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Speaker 6: sounds a lot like he is moving closer to that line,
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Speaker 6: reinstating Turkey in the F thirty five program, something that
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Speaker 6: might not be considered good news in Tel Aviv.
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Speaker 4: Let's get to akera right now.
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Speaker 6: Bloomberg correspondent Anne Marie Hordern, our chief political correspondent, is
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Speaker 6: traveling with the president in Okera and joins us live
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Speaker 6: right now as the sun is setting behind her. This
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Speaker 6: will be an important dinner, I suppose, Anne Marie. But
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Speaker 6: so many deals have already been hammered out, fifty billion
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Speaker 6: dollars and more than we've seen in the past going
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Speaker 6: to European defense contractors.
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Speaker 4: What can you tell us, Well, Europe's.
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Speaker 7: Going to have to really go to local contractors and
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Speaker 7: manufacturers when it comes to starting to really truly reindustrialize
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Speaker 7: their defense industrial base. You heard Mark Rutta for weeks
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Speaker 7: now talking about how really this summit is about the
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Speaker 7: Transatlantic Alliance reindustrializing, So that means they're going to have
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Speaker 7: to rely on some systems they've always relied on from
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Speaker 7: the United States. But there's going to be more deals
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Speaker 7: and we saw that with the rollout of the fifty
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Speaker 7: billion dollar deals so far. We know that instead of Boeing,
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Speaker 7: they're going to SOB for some sort of aircrafts. So
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Speaker 7: there are going to be other manufacturers they bring into
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Speaker 7: the fold. Because remember this meeting is about trying to
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Speaker 7: meet the target they set last year, and that was
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Speaker 7: a five percent of GDP defense target, three and a
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Speaker 7: half percent going to all the hardware ammunition, the tools
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Speaker 7: you're going to need to build that industrial base, and
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Speaker 7: then one and a half percent the support, the bridges,
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Speaker 7: the roads, the ports when it comes about providing the
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Speaker 7: infrastructure for a defense industrial base. So those are the
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Speaker 7: deals so far, and then, of course the big one
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Speaker 7: we'll waiting for is any sort of concrete details how
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Speaker 7: the President United States sees Turkey really coming back to
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Speaker 7: the F thirty five program, given the fact that there
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Speaker 7: is a law in Congress that bars them from it
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Speaker 7: because they of course bought S four hundreds from Russia.
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Speaker 2: Well, and on the subject of Russia and Marie, I
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Speaker 2: would imagine that that is going to be a dinner
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Speaker 2: topic of conversation this evening, and clearly a topic of
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Speaker 2: conversation between Vladimer's Lensky and President Trump in their bilateral
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Speaker 2: meeting tomorrow. What if anything in terms of deliverables for
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Speaker 2: Ukraine is expected out of the summit.
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Speaker 7: Where Ukraine is really once again trying to implore the
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Speaker 7: Alliance and the United States to send more patriot air
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Speaker 7: defense missiles, and we heard from Rock Russia the Secretary
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Speaker 7: General saying that there's not a ton of interceptors that
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Speaker 7: could just be easily moved around when it comes to
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Speaker 7: the alliance. This is really important for Zelenski, especially given
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Speaker 7: the past few days we saw wave of attacks on
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Speaker 7: Kiev and some of the defenses weren't able to shoot
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Speaker 7: down ballistic missiles, and that is why he is saying
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Speaker 7: the next battle of this war is being fought in
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Speaker 7: the air, and that is why he's imploring the United
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Speaker 7: States for more of the Patriot missiles. Now, for months,
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Speaker 7: there has been talk and this was brought up as
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Speaker 7: well at the G seven summit in France. There has
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Speaker 7: been talk of maybe giving Ukraine a license to manufacture
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Speaker 7: and build those defense systems in country. And I spoke
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Speaker 7: to the Finnish President Alexander Steude earlier today and he
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Speaker 7: said that would definitely be a welcome gesture, and it
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Speaker 7: comes at a time that he says Europe is trying
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Speaker 7: to salvage their relationship with this White House.
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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's and Marie Horderner, chief political correspondent, live
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Speaker 2: on the ground in Okara for this native summit. Thank
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Speaker 2: you so much, And as we consider the question of
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Speaker 2: Ukraine and the ongoing war with Russia, we bring in
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Speaker 2: now Melinda Herring, who is a non Resident Senior Fellow
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Speaker 2: at the Atlantic Council. He's joining us in our Washington,
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Speaker 2: d C studio. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Melinda.
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Speaker 2: It's good to see you.
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Speaker 8: Great to be a few.
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Speaker 2: As Amory was just outlining, clearly, Ukraine has been vocal
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Speaker 2: about the need for more patriot systems. If it gets it,
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Speaker 2: would Ukraine be able to win this war?
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Speaker 8: Outright?
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Speaker 9: Can I say hold that thought for a minute. So
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Speaker 9: I think Anemory's right that there are a limited number
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Speaker 9: of patriot interceptors. But the big discussion is two things.
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Speaker 9: So it is there is a finite number of these things.
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Speaker 9: But if the US were willing to give its licensing
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Speaker 9: permission to Ukraine, that would be a game changer. That
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Speaker 9: would be an absolute game changer. There's something else the
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Speaker 9: US can do as well. So if you go to
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Speaker 9: the factory where these pack threes are made, it's in Camden, Arkansas.
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Speaker 9: They're not on a twenty four hour schedule. I think
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Speaker 9: that's incredible. We're more than four and a half years
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Speaker 9: into the war. Come on, President Trump can make a
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Speaker 9: phone call and fix this today.
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Speaker 10: Wow.
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Speaker 6: So there could be ways of expanding the defense industrial base, right,
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Speaker 6: now overnight with a phone call to your point, I
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Speaker 6: have the hardware. We've seen a remarkable advance, bold moves
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Speaker 6: by Ukraine striking deeper into Russia, and they've been answered
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Speaker 6: by very heavy ballistic missile attacks on civilian areas in Kiev.
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Speaker 6: But what has been the change in mindset to be
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Speaker 6: able to see Ukraine reach so deeply into Russia and
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Speaker 6: actually begin a conversation about whether it can win this war.
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Speaker 6: It's a very different place than we were in a
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Speaker 6: year or two ago. How much is that affecting the
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Speaker 6: feeling and hopes on the ground.
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Speaker 9: Joe, It is a massive change. I was in Kiev
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Speaker 9: in December and it was one of the grimmest periods.
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Speaker 8: You guys know that I go there a lot.
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Speaker 9: This was my tenth trip there, and I was sleeping
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Speaker 9: in the basement every night in one of the nice hotels,
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Speaker 9: waking up to the smell of tires because you're so
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Speaker 9: far down in the ground.
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Speaker 8: You're in a parking garage sleeping.
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Speaker 9: And I couldn't get to the train station because there
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Speaker 9: are missile strikes and the mood was so grim and
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Speaker 9: Ukraine barely made it through the winter. Is hard to
7:58
Speaker 9: describe day and night, black and white. It doesn't even
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Speaker 9: do justice to the feeling. But Ukrainians on that trip,
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Speaker 9: I got to go to Firepoint, and Firepoint is the
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Speaker 9: Ukrainian company that's making the long range rockets and they're
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Speaker 9: getting better and better at hitting refineries. So Ukraine has
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Speaker 9: managed to hit all of Russia's major refineries except for one.
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Speaker 9: So Ukraine, this technology is improving, and it's drones, its
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Speaker 9: long range drones are improving as well.
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Speaker 11: Well.
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Speaker 2: So when we consider that improvement in technology in morale,
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Speaker 2: is there a sense that Ukraine could end up on
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Speaker 2: the winning side of this conflict or does it still
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Speaker 2: ultimately need to be a negotiated outcome that's pursued.
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Speaker 8: So wars always end in negotiations.
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Speaker 9: But right now there is a strategy in place on
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Speaker 9: the Ukrainian side to push as hard as possible with
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Speaker 9: these long range strikes, and the idea is to compel
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Speaker 9: Vladimir Putin to actually come to the negotiating table.
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Speaker 8: And I think it's working.
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Speaker 9: We see the Russian economy is in trouble, and we
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Speaker 9: see increasing pressure, and we see we see the Ukrainian
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Speaker 9: side getting close and closer to Moscow and Saint Petersburg
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Speaker 9: and we see elite splits as well. So is it
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Speaker 9: going to change overnight. No, But the Ukrainians also did
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Speaker 9: something really wise. They've been interrupting supply lines around Crimea
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Speaker 9: and putting huge pressure on logistics, and that's how you
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Speaker 9: win wars.
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Speaker 4: Interesting.
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Speaker 6: We've talked for years about this now, which is pretty
9:19
Speaker 6: remarkable to think about. In many of our conversations, You've
9:22
Speaker 6: led us to the realization that it's manpower just as
9:26
Speaker 6: much as it is material. We can give all the bombs,
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Speaker 6: tanks and weapons we can make, but Ukraine needs to
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Speaker 6: have people to wear uniforms and go shoot those weapons.
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Speaker 6: This was becoming harder with time. Where is the recruitment
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Speaker 6: effort now, so that discussion has actually changed.
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Speaker 9: You and I have this discussion about, oh my god,
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Speaker 9: there's not enough Ukrainian troops to hold the front line.
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Speaker 9: So because Ukraine has invested so much in its drone technology,
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Speaker 9: the kill ratio has really changed. So now one Ukrainian
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Speaker 9: is killed for every five Russian. So this is actually
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Speaker 9: the Russians don't have enough. Now the math has really
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Speaker 9: really changed. The Russian side is losing thirty five thousand
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Speaker 9: troops a month. That's an enormous number, and they're not
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Speaker 9: able to replenish their side, and they're pulling in.
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Speaker 4: Through conscripts, even through jails.
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Speaker 8: Well, so Putin has a political problem.
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Speaker 9: He doesn't want he doesn't want to have a draft,
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Speaker 9: so he's trying to avoid that, and he's been pulling
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Speaker 9: people out of jail.
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Speaker 8: He uses drug addicts.
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Speaker 9: You know, the people that he's putting on the front
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Speaker 9: line are not a great fighting force. These are not
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Speaker 9: West Point graduates, right, Joe, sound like it well.
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Speaker 2: And as we consider the pressure that the personnel challenges
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Speaker 2: will put on the Kremlin, there's also the question of
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Speaker 2: additional financial pressure. Bloomberg had reported previously about the notion
10:42
Speaker 2: that even the Russian Finance Ministry was talking about the
10:44
Speaker 2: costs of this war being untenable. And then there's the
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Speaker 2: question of tougher sanctions as well. There was reporting in
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Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal today, Melinda that on the sidelines
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Speaker 2: of the NATO summit, a group of lawmakers are going
10:54
Speaker 2: to be meeting with the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen to
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Speaker 2: talk about a bill that would Intensifyrussian sanctions.
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Speaker 8: What would that do ultimately?
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Speaker 2: Do you think if it were to come to fruition.
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Speaker 8: So I'm really skeptical.
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Speaker 9: This administration does not like sanctions on Russia, and we've
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Speaker 9: seen them back away on sanctions on Russia, so I
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Speaker 9: think it's fabulous.
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Speaker 8: They should absolutely do it.
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Speaker 9: The EU has put I think twenty four or twenty
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Speaker 9: five packages in place, and with sanctions you have to
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Speaker 9: keep fine tuning them because the Russians are masters at
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Speaker 9: sanctions of Asian We.
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Speaker 6: Should note that French President Emmanuel Macron is just arriving
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Speaker 6: at the NATO dinner and posing for photographs with President Erduwan,
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Speaker 6: and we're told that the President Trump's motorcade should be
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Speaker 6: arriving eminently.
11:37
Speaker 10: Here.
11:38
Speaker 6: If you're with us on YouTube or Bloomberg TV, there's
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Speaker 6: a live view as the dignitaries get together to break bread.
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Speaker 6: And of course Ukraine will be part of that conversation,
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Speaker 6: so too will Russia. And I'm wondering your thoughts on
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Speaker 6: Vladimir Putin's place in the universe right now?
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Speaker 4: What is his level of security? What is his approval
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Speaker 4: rating in Russia? If you could take such a.
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Speaker 9: Poll, So, if you could take such a poll, is
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Speaker 9: the clause that we need to emphasize.
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Speaker 8: So his numbers are terrible, and there are.
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Speaker 9: Splits between the presidential administration and the security services, and
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Speaker 9: there's a growing number of people that want him to
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Speaker 9: back away, and then there's a growing number of people
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Speaker 9: that want to increase pressure. But Vladimir Putin is paranoid.
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Speaker 9: He takes high security risks. A bunch of papers have
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Speaker 9: reported all of the different ways that he's trying to
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Speaker 9: stay out of the public. He's not giving a lot
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Speaker 9: of public speeches anymore because he's afraid of the securitybe Yes,
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Speaker 9: of course he should be afraid of this. The Ukrainians
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Speaker 9: are really clever at these things, and we've seen the
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Speaker 9: Ukrainians pull off you all kinds of If I were
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Speaker 9: Vladimir Putin, I would be afraid of the Ukrainian security
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Speaker 9: services too, Joe. It was even people around Putin who
12:51
Speaker 9: work in his entourage can't take an uber or they
12:53
Speaker 9: can't take the Moscow Metro.
12:55
Speaker 8: That's how paranoid he is. And I think he took
12:57
Speaker 8: their phones away from them too well.
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Speaker 2: And of course that's just as he considers the threat
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Speaker 2: posed by Ukraine. Of course, he in part went into
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Speaker 2: Ukraine in the first place over four years ago because
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Speaker 2: he was concerned that Ukraine might one day become a
13:09
Speaker 2: member of NATO. Now as we see the NATO alliance
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Speaker 2: gathering in Ankara with a pursuit of five percent of
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Speaker 2: spending of GDP on defense, has this all ultimately backfired
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Speaker 2: with his aims?
13:23
Speaker 12: Here?
13:24
Speaker 2: Is it a stronger NATO that has emerged out of
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Speaker 2: these last many years.
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Speaker 9: Absolutely, we have two new NATO members and Ukraine has
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Speaker 9: become SPARTA. It's a small militarized state. And forget Russia,
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Speaker 9: China and great power politics. That's the wrong way of
13:40
Speaker 9: looking at the world. Now it's about Israel, Rwanda and Ukraine.
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Speaker 9: These are countries that are militarized, and they have high
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Speaker 9: tech sectors and they're going to be innovating, and this
13:49
Speaker 9: is going to be the new Sparta's is actually the
13:52
Speaker 9: watchword for the next period to come.
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Speaker 4: Really fascinating, Melinda, It's great to have you back in
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Speaker 4: the mix here. Don't be a stranger. We should be
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Speaker 4: talking about this more or.
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Speaker 6: Not least Welinda Herring is non resident Senior Fellow at
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Speaker 6: the Atlantic Council and has been indispensable in helping us
14:05
Speaker 6: understand the contours of this war in Ukraine. As President
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Speaker 6: Trump arrives at the Palace, walking solo up the blue carpet, Kaylee.
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Speaker 6: He'll be standing side by side in just a moment
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Speaker 6: here with President Erduwan. This is just day one of
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Speaker 6: the NATO summit, which with much more to follow tomorrow.
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Speaker 2: Indeed, of course he's already met with Erduwan once for
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Speaker 2: a bilateral meeting today, But tomorrow, in addition to the
14:28
Speaker 2: meetings happening with all of the leaders together, he will
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Speaker 2: have that bilateral meeting with the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinski, who,
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Speaker 2: as we were just discussing with Melinda, has reason to
14:37
Speaker 2: be more confident at this NATO summit than he may
14:40
Speaker 2: have had reason to be just months ago. Seeing now
14:44
Speaker 2: President Trump shaking hands with President Airdiwan. Many of the
14:48
Speaker 2: other NATA leaders have already walked into this dinner. We
14:50
Speaker 2: just saw Friedrich Martz of Germany, Mark Karney of Canada,
14:53
Speaker 2: and Emmanuel Macrone of France making their arrivals too.
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Speaker 6: A lot more to follow. Stay with us here on
14:57
Speaker 6: balance of power. We're live in Washington with an eye
15:00
Speaker 6: on enkra and Ukraine for that matter. Stay with us
15:03
Speaker 6: on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up
15:05
Speaker 6: After this.
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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas
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15:28
Speaker 2: Don Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew in Washington, where we're
15:31
Speaker 2: tracking more dominoes falling that appear to be cascading toward
15:35
Speaker 2: the end of Graham Platner's campaign for Senate in Maine.
15:39
Speaker 2: Of course, allegations surface yesterday, first published by Politico and
15:43
Speaker 2: then an interview on CNN from a woman that Platner
15:45
Speaker 2: dated years ago who suggested an alleged that Platner sexually
15:50
Speaker 2: assaulted her, allegations that he denies, though he still is
15:53
Speaker 2: considering the path forward for his campaign in the.
15:56
Speaker 8: Face of them.
15:57
Speaker 2: As all this came out yesterday afternoon, we pretty immediately
16:02
Speaker 2: key voices in the Democratic Party pulling their endorsement from Platner,
16:07
Speaker 2: Senator Ruben Diego of Arizona, Congressman Rocanna of California, the
16:11
Speaker 2: DSc C Karson Gillibrand, who runs It and Chuck Schumer
16:15
Speaker 2: both suggested they would not support financially backing Platner's campaign
16:20
Speaker 2: any longer, and now Senator Bernie Sanders, who was a
16:23
Speaker 2: big supporter of Platner, has also pulled his endorsement. It seems.
16:28
Speaker 2: He said on Twitter earlier today, I've spoken with Graham
16:30
Speaker 2: Platner about the best path forward for Maine in light
16:32
Speaker 2: of these very serious allegations. I have recommended that he
16:36
Speaker 2: step aside. Of course, Platner has not done so yet,
16:39
Speaker 2: even though his video statement released yesterday evening did indicate
16:43
Speaker 2: it could be a potential outcome here.
16:46
Speaker 10: Any accusation of non consensual behavior is categorically false, regardless
16:51
Speaker 10: of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful of political
16:55
Speaker 10: reality it will inflict. We are taking the time to
16:57
Speaker 10: reflect on the best path forward for the state that
17:00
Speaker 10: I love, the people that I love, the movement I
17:03
Speaker 10: belong to, and the goal of defeating Susan Collins. Those
17:07
Speaker 10: were the goals and we launched this campaign and they
17:10
Speaker 10: remain my goals today.
17:14
Speaker 6: Those words time to reflect on the best path forward
17:19
Speaker 6: are still resonating. We have not heard from Platnir since then.
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Speaker 6: To Kaylee's point, he's lost a series of key endorsements,
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Speaker 6: and now that Chuck Schumer aligned Senate Majority pack says
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Speaker 6: it is quote redirecting resources away from the main Senate race.
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Speaker 4: In light of these allegations, this is.
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Speaker 6: Now going to set off a series of actions that
17:41
Speaker 6: will presumably include his dropping out of the race. He
17:44
Speaker 6: has until Monday to do so, allowing the party to
17:47
Speaker 6: pick another contender to be on the ballot.
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Speaker 4: And this is where we start our conversation.
17:52
Speaker 6: With our great political panel back together today on Bloomberg
17:55
Speaker 6: TV and Radio. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis, Republican strategist
17:59
Speaker 6: and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Democratic analyst Genie Shanzeno,
18:03
Speaker 6: Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. How
18:06
Speaker 6: much time, Genie does Platner have to make a decision here?
18:11
Speaker 6: Obviously the real deadline is Monday, but the party is
18:13
Speaker 6: going to want every minute it can get here, right.
18:17
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I think Bernie Sanders's statement that you
18:20
Speaker 12: were just talking about that is a sign that this
18:22
Speaker 12: is imminent. He has to drop out. It's not just
18:25
Speaker 12: an issue of the support he's lost, which is tremendous.
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Speaker 12: It's the money. They're not going to put money into
18:31
Speaker 12: this campaign in Maine unless he's off the ballot. So
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Speaker 12: I think it's a matter of time and he should
18:37
Speaker 12: do the right thing and drop out immediately, given the
18:41
Speaker 12: main Democrats time to choose an alternative candidate. But can
18:45
Speaker 12: I just say about this victim she is, her allegations
18:50
Speaker 12: are incredibly credible. Some people questioning the timing on this
18:55
Speaker 12: thing she's talking about breaking and entering in sexual assault.
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Speaker 12: Crats should require that he drop out of this race
19:04
Speaker 12: immediately and that they're able to replace him, and Democrats
19:08
Speaker 12: deserve better from their party. I mean, this is so frustrating,
19:13
Speaker 12: a must win state and you will allow the Democratic
19:16
Speaker 12: Progressives to come in and get somebody who we knew
19:20
Speaker 12: had so many awful charges against them, and you allow
19:24
Speaker 12: this to occur. I mean, I think the entire party
19:26
Speaker 12: has egg on its face and there's going to be
19:29
Speaker 12: a lot to answer for because this is what happens
19:33
Speaker 12: in the Senate, is this race, and so Democratics, Democrats
19:37
Speaker 12: rather across the country are just livid and right they should.
19:40
Speaker 2: Be well, and we should note the victim who Genie
19:43
Speaker 2: is talking about said she was hesitant to go come
19:46
Speaker 2: forward in part because she agrees with Plattner's politics, she
19:50
Speaker 2: just doesn't support the man as a candidate. But she also,
19:54
Speaker 2: it seems, was worried about the notion of it damaging
19:58
Speaker 2: the Democrats of ability to flip this seat from Susan Collins.
20:02
Speaker 2: So Rick way In here is mean now potentially a
20:05
Speaker 2: lost cause for Democrats, even if someone else steps up.
20:10
Speaker 13: It's hard to say if this is the death knell
20:14
Speaker 13: of a campaign against Susan Collins. I mean, I would
20:16
Speaker 13: remind everybody that we've been having this debate around Graham
20:20
Speaker 13: Plattner for months. The idea that it took Jenny Racacott
20:25
Speaker 13: to do this interview yesterday to actually finally get this
20:29
Speaker 13: guy to withdraw is a little bit embarrassing for the
20:31
Speaker 13: party that claims that they really support women's health. It's
20:36
Speaker 13: just stunning that this has been a debate for months
20:39
Speaker 13: and nothing's been done about his candidacy.
20:41
Speaker 4: The reality is.
20:44
Speaker 13: Susan Collins was starting to pull away from Graham Plattner.
20:48
Speaker 13: She was ahead in most of the polls. Even though
20:50
Speaker 13: it's margin of error, it's a significant difference than where
20:53
Speaker 13: this race was only.
20:54
Speaker 4: A month ago.
20:56
Speaker 13: And I would say the big flashing red light is
20:58
Speaker 13: what is the main Party going to do about it?
21:01
Speaker 13: Assuming Grand Plantner gets out before Monday, they got to
21:05
Speaker 13: pick a candidate. Now. Are they going to run a process.
21:07
Speaker 13: Are they going to have a mini primary? Are they
21:09
Speaker 13: going to do what Joe Biden probably should have done,
21:12
Speaker 13: which is leave it to party regulars to pick their nominee,
21:16
Speaker 13: or are they going to put their finger on the
21:17
Speaker 13: scale and say, Okay, we've chosen this individual to replace him.
21:22
Speaker 13: This is a really important transition that the party's got
21:25
Speaker 13: to go through, and they're only going to get one
21:27
Speaker 13: shot at it now, and so I really am very
21:32
Speaker 13: keen to see what happens in the post gram Platner
21:35
Speaker 13: campaign with the main Party deciding what.
21:39
Speaker 4: To do next.
21:40
Speaker 6: Well, one thing we learned throughout the day yesterday and
21:43
Speaker 6: on the late edition of Balance of Power is that
21:45
Speaker 6: nobody's looking at Janet Mills. It would likely be somebody
21:48
Speaker 6: who was in the gubernatorial primary, Genie, and unclear exactly
21:52
Speaker 6: how that shakes out in the next couple of days.
21:54
Speaker 4: Platt, there's still technically the candidate.
21:56
Speaker 6: You can weigh in on that if you want, But
21:58
Speaker 6: I'm just curious getting back to what Rick just said,
22:00
Speaker 6: what is the lesson learned here by the likes of
22:02
Speaker 6: Elizabeth Warren, Reuben Diego, Martin Heinrich Roe, Conna, Bernie Sanders,
22:08
Speaker 6: all of whom had opportunities with the Nazi tattoo, with
22:11
Speaker 6: the sexting stories, with the extra marital affairs, and all
22:16
Speaker 6: the other scandals that have been swirling around Graham Platner here.
22:22
Speaker 6: They all had an opportunity to say no at some point.
22:27
Speaker 6: And I'm wondering what the lesson is now realizing that
22:30
Speaker 6: Democrats see Republicans endorsing someone like Ken Paxton and are
22:35
Speaker 6: wondering why they don't have to apologize when Democrats in
22:39
Speaker 6: many cases do. Yet this is a party seeking the
22:42
Speaker 6: high moral ground on issues to Rick's point, like women's rights.
22:46
Speaker 4: How do we rationalize what just happened?
22:49
Speaker 12: Yeah, and Joe, I think you know the issue is
22:52
Speaker 12: so complicated because it wasn't a matter of vetting. We
22:55
Speaker 12: keep hearing people say, well, he wasn't properly vetted, as
22:59
Speaker 12: Rick talked about. We knew about these allegations and you
23:02
Speaker 12: just listed some of them, and there's more than we
23:04
Speaker 12: can account for here, and we knew this was coming
23:08
Speaker 12: down the pike.
23:10
Speaker 8: And yet you.
23:10
Speaker 12: Had respected members of the party, Elizabeth Warren and others
23:15
Speaker 12: coming out in support of this man. Why because the
23:19
Speaker 12: voters of Maine went with him. And this gets me
23:21
Speaker 12: back to the Democratic Party itself. It cannot walk away
23:26
Speaker 12: from these states, particularly a key one like Maine, and
23:29
Speaker 12: say we're going to allow the Democratic Socialists to come
23:32
Speaker 12: in Morris Katz, Bernie Sanders and the others and choose
23:36
Speaker 12: a nominee and then go in and say we're going
23:39
Speaker 12: to get behind Janet Mills. And let's not forget what
23:42
Speaker 12: they did. They got behind Janet Mills, who has you know,
23:45
Speaker 12: not a lot of support. She is obviously the governor
23:48
Speaker 12: has support there, but is not a lot of support
23:50
Speaker 12: for a Senate race. She's not a progressive in the
23:53
Speaker 12: way that voters want. And they kicked out, or they
23:56
Speaker 12: sort of pushed out people like we had the founder
24:00
Speaker 12: of the beer company, the main beer company, thinking of
24:03
Speaker 12: coming in as a populace. They moved him out. And
24:06
Speaker 12: so that's where the responsibility lies. You've got to have
24:10
Speaker 12: a party that can go in and support potential candidates
24:14
Speaker 12: who don't come with all this baggage, who are progressives
24:17
Speaker 12: and populists who will run against Wall Street like Cleeber
24:21
Speaker 12: was going to do, and who can do it and
24:23
Speaker 12: be authentic in a way that the party can support.
24:28
Speaker 12: So I blame this on the party and not so
24:30
Speaker 12: much the members who after people voted came out and
24:33
Speaker 12: said we're going to support this guy.
24:37
Speaker 2: Well, so, Rick, as we consider how Main fits into
24:41
Speaker 2: the wider map here in the midterms, if you were
24:45
Speaker 2: running Senate majority packer inside the DSCC right now, would
24:48
Speaker 2: you be thinking about allocating more resources to me and
24:51
Speaker 2: if a new candidate gets on the ballot, or instead
24:54
Speaker 2: allocating more resources to other states Texas, Iowa, Alaska in
24:57
Speaker 2: the hopes that you may be able to flip one
24:59
Speaker 2: of them instead.
25:01
Speaker 4: Well, you think about it.
25:02
Speaker 13: Texas is a state that went you know, plus thirteen
25:05
Speaker 13: for Donald Trump, and Trump actually lost Maine. Susan Collins
25:10
Speaker 13: is the only Republican on the ballot in this cycle
25:14
Speaker 13: from a state that Donald Trump lost.
25:17
Speaker 4: A Republican from.
25:18
Speaker 13: A state that Donald Trump lost, So you know, you've
25:20
Speaker 13: got to play the odds. I mean, Democrats would be
25:24
Speaker 13: out of their minds not to double down on Maine,
25:27
Speaker 13: but I think it would be great if they looked
25:29
Speaker 13: to other places like Texas, you know, because a dollar
25:33
Speaker 13: in Maine goes.
25:34
Speaker 11: A long way.
25:34
Speaker 13: A dollar in Texas doesn't get you across the street.
25:37
Speaker 13: And so you want to spend one hundred million dollars
25:40
Speaker 13: in Texas or twenty five million dollars in Maine. It's
25:44
Speaker 13: tough decisions for a pack like that, but made a
25:47
Speaker 13: little bit easier even for Democrats, you know, with the
25:50
Speaker 13: latest Supreme Court decision where they can coordinate. So now
25:53
Speaker 13: they can sit down with whoever is going to be
25:55
Speaker 13: the candidate and say, Okay, here's the package we're going
25:57
Speaker 13: to do. We're going to run your TV, we're going
25:59
Speaker 13: to run your ground game, we're gonna spend fifty million dollars,
26:03
Speaker 13: and this is how your campaign's gonna run. So it
26:05
Speaker 13: does make it easier in the situation like this to
26:08
Speaker 13: mount the campaign with outside resources in coordination with the campaign.
26:14
Speaker 2: All right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are Bloomberg Politics contributors.
26:18
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for a discussion on those who
26:20
Speaker 2: could one day hold seats in the Senate.
26:23
Speaker 6: Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much
26:25
Speaker 6: more coming up after this.
26:31
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
26:34
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26:47
Speaker 6: I've been really looking forward to this conversation and the
26:50
Speaker 6: story what I think of as the story of the day.
26:54
Speaker 6: It stopped me in my tracks this morning as I'm
26:56
Speaker 6: doing the read in. Usually it's the doom scroll. It
26:59
Speaker 6: was a little bit this morning, but then I started
27:01
Speaker 6: thinking about what a breakthrough this might be. Do we
27:03
Speaker 6: end up looking back on the seventh of July as
27:07
Speaker 6: maybe something bigger than Deep Seek?
27:11
Speaker 4: Is that as good as it gets?
27:13
Speaker 6: Because this seems more like what we've been talking about,
27:16
Speaker 6: Anthropic identifying an internal workspace inside Claud that it did
27:22
Speaker 6: not design. That Claud uses to manipulate ideas without putting
27:29
Speaker 6: them into words. Consider your own subconscience. But in this case,
27:34
Speaker 6: subconsciousness is in a computer. The jspace it is called
27:40
Speaker 6: named for Nthropics New Jacobean Lens. As I read from
27:45
Speaker 6: the company's website, a small internal workspace shaping Claude's reasoning,
27:51
Speaker 6: but it never appears an output. Now they put up
27:52
Speaker 6: a great video this morning. You can actually see it
27:55
Speaker 6: on YouTube if you're watching us with a great voiceover.
27:57
Speaker 6: And of course nobody would frame this better than Thropic itself.
28:01
Speaker 6: Think of the mind like an ocean. Up on the
28:05
Speaker 6: surface are our thoughts, dinner plans and stray worries, our
28:09
Speaker 6: inner monologue, the images that pop into our heads. But
28:12
Speaker 6: most of our brain's activity happens down and the unconscious
28:15
Speaker 6: depths without us realizing it. It's filtering out background sounds,
28:21
Speaker 6: controlling our breathing, the stuff you do all day, helping
28:23
Speaker 6: us recognize people and objects, and AI models have their
28:26
Speaker 6: own kinds of brains.
28:29
Speaker 4: Question is, could a.
28:31
Speaker 6: Model have anything like the divide humans have between accessible
28:33
Speaker 6: thoughts above the surface and unconscious thoughts below. We may
28:38
Speaker 6: have just gotten an answer, and I think it's yes right.
28:41
Speaker 6: AI models, as Anthropic says, are built differently than human
28:46
Speaker 6: brains in their train differently, so it is remarkable to
28:48
Speaker 6: see the structure like the jspace emerge from inside of them,
28:52
Speaker 6: something reminiscent of how human minds work, but which we
28:56
Speaker 6: did not program into the model. Anthropic is fine things
29:00
Speaker 6: inside Claude that it did not design, and in this case,
29:04
Speaker 6: maybe the most fascinating thing to emerge. Yet, there was
29:07
Speaker 6: one phone call we made when we read this story,
29:09
Speaker 6: and it was to Miriam Vogel, one of the smartest
29:12
Speaker 6: minds we have been able to share with you on AI,
29:15
Speaker 6: who did not come here with a.
29:17
Speaker 4: Warning or her own doom scroll. It was in fact.
29:23
Speaker 6: A message of optimism and what AI could bring to
29:26
Speaker 6: our lives, into our world that might make it better.
29:29
Speaker 6: She wrote the book Governing the Machine, How to Navigate
29:31
Speaker 6: the risks of AI and unlock its true potential. Miriam Vogel,
29:35
Speaker 6: the president and CEO of Equal AI, is with us
29:37
Speaker 6: live now on Bloomberg and Miriam, I'm delighted that you
29:40
Speaker 6: could come along. I'm just going to go for the
29:42
Speaker 6: fastball on this the most obvious question, then, do we
29:45
Speaker 6: now understand that AI models could be conscious?
29:52
Speaker 11: Thanks so much for having me and for asking this
29:54
Speaker 11: important question, Joe. I think we need to look at
29:57
Speaker 11: what they said in the paper themselves, and that is
30:00
Speaker 11: that they've used this very provocative term conscious, but they
30:03
Speaker 11: are being very limited in what they mean about consciousness.
30:06
Speaker 11: So it's a very interesting philosophical question, even religious question
30:12
Speaker 11: when we're talking about consciousness. But here in this paper
30:15
Speaker 11: they are limiting it to a functional description of with
30:20
Speaker 11: this as they describe the J Space, this separate context
30:24
Speaker 11: that's informing the outputs. What they are really giving us
30:28
Speaker 11: is this window into understanding how the models works, how
30:32
Speaker 11: the models work, and for me, that's the most exciting part.
30:35
Speaker 11: So while there's this really interesting side, very provocative conversation,
30:39
Speaker 11: they have also explicitly directed us to the critical point here,
30:43
Speaker 11: and that is we can now start to better govern
30:46
Speaker 11: these machines because we can better understand their processes.
30:52
Speaker 6: To that end, when switching off the Jspace, Claude had
30:56
Speaker 6: more trouble reasoning, which is fascinating here. Maybe there's a
30:59
Speaker 6: new potential to put a governor on these models. I
31:03
Speaker 6: guess to your point, the jspace actually caught claud in
31:08
Speaker 6: making up fake data is the Jspace.
31:12
Speaker 4: What will save us, Miriam, what will save us.
31:16
Speaker 11: Is understanding that there is such a thing as the Jspace.
31:19
Speaker 11: That what we are understanding is that Anthropic has showed
31:24
Speaker 11: us claud has developed its own process for giving us
31:27
Speaker 11: these very robust, thoughtful answers that we are coming to
31:30
Speaker 11: rely on and really pivotal systems across society. So what
31:34
Speaker 11: we have to understand is that there are these depths
31:38
Speaker 11: of process and reasoning that are leading to these outputs,
31:41
Speaker 11: and what that tells us is we cannot continue to
31:43
Speaker 11: only test outputs. We have to understand that there is
31:47
Speaker 11: this whole jspace, and we're probably going to learn more
31:49
Speaker 11: as time goes on. This is a first step in
31:51
Speaker 11: what I believe will be a really important expedition. I mean,
31:55
Speaker 11: they have so nicely phrased this and the top layer
31:59
Speaker 11: of the ocean were so many of our brains operate,
32:01
Speaker 11: and so I think again it can complicated thinking of
32:04
Speaker 11: the depths of the ocean and consciousness. But I think
32:07
Speaker 11: the important point they're trying to tell us is we've
32:09
Speaker 11: been operating at a surface level and there's a great
32:12
Speaker 11: depth that we need to be more transparent on as
32:15
Speaker 11: we start to understand it more so that we can
32:17
Speaker 11: govern it.
32:19
Speaker 4: Fascinating.
32:20
Speaker 6: In a couple of instances, Anthropic walked us through some
32:23
Speaker 6: of the testing that it did with the jaspace.
32:27
Speaker 4: It asked it to do a math.
32:28
Speaker 6: Problem, which Claude accomplished very quickly, showing step by step
32:33
Speaker 6: reasoning only in the J space. It gave a just
32:36
Speaker 6: a final answer on the top layer of the ocean
32:39
Speaker 6: but when we looked underneath, we actually saw the work.
32:41
Speaker 6: We saw claud showing its math in the jspace. Then
32:45
Speaker 6: things got to be a little bit more abstract. Anthropic
32:48
Speaker 6: told Claude to think about the Golden Gate Bridge while
32:51
Speaker 6: also copying an unrelated sentence, and Claude copied the sentence
32:55
Speaker 6: but behind the scenes the bridge in California. Those two
32:58
Speaker 6: words popped up in the space, and it even showed
33:02
Speaker 6: that it was thinking about its own thinking. Claude has
33:06
Speaker 6: some control overfilling the J space with ideas, and this
33:09
Speaker 6: is what gets people wondering if, in fact, it could
33:12
Speaker 6: spawn its own consciousness. How long will it be before
33:17
Speaker 6: we know?
33:17
Speaker 11: Miriam, Well, I think we need to applaud the fact
33:21
Speaker 11: that this research has been coming out. You know, Anthropic
33:24
Speaker 11: has been continuing to keep us posted on these developments.
33:28
Speaker 11: And while it's really interesting and informative to be focusing
33:31
Speaker 11: on these words like consciousness and to be thinking about
33:34
Speaker 11: what this means and how it connects a piece of
33:38
Speaker 11: our own thinking, what really is the point here is
33:41
Speaker 11: that we can better understand the processes, you know, understanding
33:46
Speaker 11: that we cannot, again, as I said, simply be looking
33:49
Speaker 11: at outputs. This will be really important as we get
33:52
Speaker 11: to the next phase of AI, which many organizations are
33:55
Speaker 11: already in with a gentic AI, and as you know Joe,
33:58
Speaker 11: will be increasingly moving humans from the process. So in
34:02
Speaker 11: this transparent report, we can see that there was a
34:07
Speaker 11: whole other subset of reasoning that the simple outputs would
34:10
Speaker 11: not have been indicative of. We need to continue to
34:14
Speaker 11: support this kind of research. We need to applaud the
34:16
Speaker 11: fact that this is what's happening in this organization, that
34:20
Speaker 11: they are sharing what they are learning very broadly. It's
34:24
Speaker 11: the transparency here that is key and that will build
34:27
Speaker 11: the trust. As you know, Joe, there's not a lot
34:29
Speaker 11: of trust for AI in society right now. It is
34:31
Speaker 11: not something a topic that is engendering a lot of
34:35
Speaker 11: goodwill or trust. We know that there's an overwhelming concern
34:41
Speaker 11: that is more fearful of AI. The general public has
34:44
Speaker 11: more fear positive sentiment about AI, and what we should
34:48
Speaker 11: look at this report as doing is an important step
34:51
Speaker 11: forward in building that trust by being transparent.
34:54
Speaker 8: So while it's using evocative.
34:55
Speaker 11: Words that are really interesting and a great point of
35:00
Speaker 11: question for philosophers and scientists about consciousness, what is actually
35:04
Speaker 11: doing is helping us get into the layers of the
35:07
Speaker 11: ocean and better understand what are the systems informing us
35:11
Speaker 11: and as we increasingly take humans out of the process
35:14
Speaker 11: through a gentic AI, this will be critical so that
35:17
Speaker 11: we can understand what are the underlying root causes that
35:22
Speaker 11: are informing these outputs.
35:24
Speaker 9: Well.
35:25
Speaker 4: See, this is why we called you, Miriam.
35:26
Speaker 6: It's very easy to fall into the sky net trap
35:28
Speaker 6: with this story, and I'm fascinated by the way you're
35:31
Speaker 6: choosing your answers. So last time we spoke was before
35:34
Speaker 6: the White House started testing and grading things like Mythos,
35:41
Speaker 6: Fable and other AI models that it's basically become the
35:44
Speaker 6: control center. As we know, the most recent model of
35:48
Speaker 6: Mythos is still under wraps because they saw this potential
35:52
Speaker 6: for a jail break. Could the j space help officials,
35:55
Speaker 6: whether in the administration or anywhere else, grade the safety
36:00
Speaker 6: and efficacy of an AI model before it goes public again.
36:05
Speaker 11: I think this is an important step forward, and it's
36:07
Speaker 11: great that this is being shared with the general public
36:09
Speaker 11: in addition to the government.
36:11
Speaker 8: The more all of us understand.
36:13
Speaker 11: What AI is, what its capabilities are, and its limitations,
36:17
Speaker 11: that's a key part, not just what it's capable.
36:19
Speaker 6: Does every AI model have a jspace or is this
36:22
Speaker 6: an anthropic thing?
36:24
Speaker 8: Well, it's a.
36:24
Speaker 11: Great question, and that's something we should encourage more companies
36:27
Speaker 11: to be transparent about. They should also be doing this testing.
36:31
Speaker 11: I hope and trust they are, and they should be
36:33
Speaker 11: sharing it publicly. That is the key thing that we
36:35
Speaker 11: should be embracing here. The more they are learning and
36:39
Speaker 11: sharing with the public, the better we can understand what
36:41
Speaker 11: it is, the better we can govern it, the more
36:44
Speaker 11: trust we can be bringing through this transparency.
36:47
Speaker 6: Great Miriam, thank you so much for joining us to
36:50
Speaker 6: share your insights. She does this for a living, and
36:52
Speaker 6: I'm delighted that you're back in our conversation. Miriam Vogel,
36:55
Speaker 6: President CEO Equal AI. The book again, Governing the Machine,
36:58
Speaker 6: How to navigate the risks of ail and unlock its
37:01
Speaker 6: true potential.
37:04
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
37:07
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37:13
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37:16
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