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'Strongest El Niño of the century' is coming. Should we be scared · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I've been involved in long range forecasting for many years,
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: and I have never seen an event like this.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: Something extraordinary is developing beneath the surface of the tropical
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Pacific which has the power to reshape weather across the globe.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: It is a natural climate pattern called al Nino.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: The reality is where already within the El Nino event.
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  Speaker 4: We're already at levels that are typical for a very
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  Speaker 4: strong event at its peak. The peak is still a
• 0:34
  Speaker 4: several months away.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: This strong Alninio may give us all a glimpse of
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  Speaker 2: our climate future, which is already taking shape.
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  Speaker 5: If you thought the weather in twenty twenty six was extreme,
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  Speaker 5: well twenty twenty seven is set to be a lot worse.
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  Speaker 5: And that's because of a powerful al Nino event developing
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  Speaker 5: over the Pacific Ocean. It's likely to be the strongest
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  Speaker 5: in over a hundhundred years, potentially making next year the
• 1:02
  Speaker 5: hottest on record, bringing extreme droughts in some parts of
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  Speaker 5: the world torrential rain in others. Over the next ten minutes,
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  Speaker 5: we'll explain what El Nino is, the impacts it can have,
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  Speaker 5: and whether there is a link to climate change. First,
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  Speaker 5: let's start with the basics. What is al Ninio is
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: Simon King from BBC Weather.
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  Speaker 4: El Nino is a natural climate pattern where the tropical
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: Pacific Ocean warms up well above normal levels. Think of
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: the Pacific like a radiator. When it's turned on, the
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  Speaker 4: heat transfers into the atmosphere, boosting the global arish temperature.
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: So how does the al Ninia weather pattern form. Here's
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  Speaker 5: BBC Weather's Serrakeith Lucas to explain.
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  Speaker 3: El Nino can affect weather patterns around the world, and
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  Speaker 3: it starts in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a change
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  Speaker 3: in temperature and wind. The usual east to west trade
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  Speaker 3: winds can weaken or even reverse, and that allows warm
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: waters to gather in a central and eastern Pacific. That
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: in turn can bring wetter weather to the west coast
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: of South America and drier conditions to the other side
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: of the Pacific. But it can have much further reaching
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  Speaker 3: impacts too. Global temperatures are typically boosted by about zero
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  Speaker 3: point two celsius during El Ninio. Some places like the
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Horn of Africa can become much wetter, whilst in the UK,
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: El Ninio can increase our risk of seeing a colder winter.
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  Speaker 3: El Nino events typically last around one year. They occur
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  Speaker 3: every two to seven years, but no two El Nino
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  Speaker 3: episodes are the same.
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  Speaker 5: So what about this Al NINIU. Experts believe it could
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  Speaker 5: be the strongest ever. It's been called super mega, even
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: a godzilla El NINIAU. Here's our climate editor, Justin Rolot
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  Speaker 5: on how it's been building.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: El Nino is one of the most important weather patterns
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  Speaker 2: on the planet, helping drive extreme weather around the world.
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  Speaker 2: Now our globe, look at that, pretty impressive A shows
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  Speaker 2: the pattern of heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean. That
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  Speaker 2: is the engine run of El Nino. Now, at the
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: end of last year, that's what we're showing here. It
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  Speaker 2: was still showing the impacts of El Nino's sister weather pattern,
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  Speaker 2: La Nina, which has a cooling effect, and you can
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  Speaker 2: see heat over there in the west, cooler temperatures over
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  Speaker 2: here in the east. Now, as we move into this year,
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  Speaker 2: look at that the normal winds, the trade winds have
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  Speaker 2: weakened on some occasions even reversed, allowing the warmer surface
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  Speaker 2: water to move eastwards across the Pacific. You can see it.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: They're building up off the coast of South America. Now
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  Speaker 2: that is a classic sign of an impending El Nino.
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  Speaker 5: So how concerning is it well? Experts around the world
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  Speaker 5: have been warning about the potential for a record breaking
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  Speaker 5: al Nino for months now, and here in the UK
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  Speaker 5: the official Weather and Climate Services it could be the
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  Speaker 5: strongest in living memory.
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  Speaker 1: The tropical Pacific is warming faster than I've ever seen
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  Speaker 1: and assuming the forecasts are correct, and we've got very
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: high confidence at this stay age. The Alnino is very
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: slow developing. It takes many months, so we're pretty confident
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  Speaker 1: about the outcome. We think that when it peaks in
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  Speaker 1: November and December, it's likely to be record event, unprecedented,
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  Speaker 1: beyond anything we've seen in the living memory.
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  Speaker 5: So what about the impacts Well, though expected to be
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  Speaker 5: different depending on where you are in the world, especially
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  Speaker 5: when it comes to rainfall. We're likely to see drier
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  Speaker 5: conditions and higher risks of wildfires in Australia and the Amazon.
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  Speaker 5: It's also likely to be a weaker monsoon season in India,
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  Speaker 5: reducing the rain that farmers rely on, but they'll be
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  Speaker 5: probably far more rain in the southern United States, bringing
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  Speaker 5: with it the risk of flooding and powerful storms. Here's
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  Speaker 5: been Rich from BBC Weather.
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  Speaker 6: With more, the strongest impacts on the weather are felt
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  Speaker 6: close to the tropical Pacific where Elmina is actually taking place.
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  Speaker 6: For parts of Peru and ecuad All, for example, it
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  Speaker 6: brings the increased threats of flooding and landslides. The same
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  Speaker 6: for the southern USA, but in Australia and Southeast Asia
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  Speaker 6: it means the risk of more droughts and more wildfires.
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  Speaker 6: But even further afield there are weather impacts in the Atlantic.
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  Speaker 6: We tend to see a suppressed hurricane season in El
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  Speaker 6: Nino years, and that is exactly what we have right now,
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  Speaker 6: only three named storms so far. The Indian monsoon tends
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  Speaker 6: to be suppressed so far this year that has brought
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  Speaker 6: less rainfall than normal, and even here in the UK
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  Speaker 6: there can be impact. The Met Office is expecting a
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  Speaker 6: stormy and wet autumn.
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  Speaker 5: So that's what could be on the horizon. Let's look
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  Speaker 5: at what's happened in previous Ninio weather events. He's Simon
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  Speaker 5: King again.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Well.
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  Speaker 4: The last El Nino in twenty twenty three twenty four
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  Speaker 4: helped make twenty twenty four the warmest year on record,
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  Speaker 4: and during the last very strong El Nino in twenty fifteen,
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  Speaker 4: twenty sixteen, there was severe drought in parts of Africa
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  Speaker 4: and the Caribbean, increased wildfires hit Central Asia, and there
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  Speaker 4: was a huge impact on food. The droughts and floods
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  Speaker 4: caused by that El Nino a decade ago affected the
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  Speaker 4: food security of more than sixty million people. According to
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  Speaker 4: the UM. Chocolate is one example where we could be
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  Speaker 4: paying more later this year and into next After the
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  Speaker 4: last El NINEO, chocolate got fifteen percent more expensive because
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  Speaker 4: dry weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast affected the
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  Speaker 4: coca harvests.
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  Speaker 5: Well, you heard there a bit about the cocoa impacts
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  Speaker 5: of the twenty fifteen Al Nino, but it isn't just
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  Speaker 5: the price of chocolate that is going to be affected.
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  Speaker 5: When it comes to trade, we're already seeing issues with
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  Speaker 5: food production. For the first time in a decade, India
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  Speaker 5: has started to import sugar reduce rainfall due to our
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  Speaker 5: Nunio has affected supplies, and that's in a country that's
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: the world's second largest sugar producer and exporter. There's also
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: issue in Panama where drought is limiting ships passing through
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  Speaker 5: the Panama Canal. So International Business correspondent to the Oleggate explains.
• 6:51
  Speaker 7: The canal connects the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean, but
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  Speaker 7: most of it is above sea level. That's the problem.
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  Speaker 7: It's fed by rainwater and vessels going through have to
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  Speaker 7: negotiate a series of locks, and every time one of
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  Speaker 7: them does so, it requires tens of millions of gallons
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  Speaker 7: of fresh water. Now the water supply is held in
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  Speaker 7: lakes in Panama, which also feeds citizens of Panama City.
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  Speaker 7: If too much water is being lost and there's not
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  Speaker 7: enough rainfall, and that's the situation we're seeing at the moment,
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  Speaker 7: flow through the canal has to be reduced and October
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  Speaker 7: and November when the should be peaked rainfall, but this
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  Speaker 7: year is expected to be much less than usual, hence
• 7:29
  Speaker 7: the restrictions on traffic through the Panama Canal.
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  Speaker 5: So, if this Anino weather pattern could make twenty twenty
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  Speaker 5: seven the hottest year on record, what about this year?
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  Speaker 5: Has it already had an impact on temperatures? Been Rich
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: from BBC Weather is back with the answer.
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  Speaker 6: So far in twenty twenty six, El Nino has not
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  Speaker 6: had a big impact on temperatures around the globe. The
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  Speaker 6: bigger drivers of the hot weather we've seen have been
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: general weather patterns, but also the impacts of man made
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  Speaker 6: climate change. However, as we move through the rest of
• 7:59
  Speaker 6: the year, to think Alnino will start to have a
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: bigger impact on temperatures around the world.
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  Speaker 5: Well, a lot of you are asking if al Nino
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  Speaker 5: could be the strongest send record. It is hard to
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  Speaker 5: judge exactly which Al Nino weather event holds that record,
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  Speaker 5: but it is widely believed to be the El Nino
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  Speaker 5: of eighteen seventy seven. Here's been again on how this
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  Speaker 5: one could compare