Latest / Toadstool Sports / NBA + NCAAF Bowls Best Bets Friday 12/26/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
- 0:41Speaker 1: hat man, I don't know what is going on with
- 0:43Speaker 1: the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is? I
- 0:46Speaker 1: don't even know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
- 0:51Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
- 0:53Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
- 0:57Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
- 0:59Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die at least
- 1:04Speaker 1: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go
- 1:07Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
- 1:10Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't
- 1:13Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. The slumperies,
- 1:16Speaker 1: the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up? Everybody's sewed?
- 1:34Speaker 1: Back with you? Toadstool Sports, Friday, December twenty sixth, Hopefully
- 1:40Speaker 1: everybody had a good Christmas. Aside from the thunder being
- 1:44Speaker 1: incorrect again, I don't know what to tell you about that, man.
- 1:46Speaker 1: I haven't looked really at the box score yet. I
- 1:49Speaker 1: wasn't watching the game. I don't know what to tell you, man.
- 1:53Speaker 1: They just don't match up well against the Spurs. I
- 1:56Speaker 1: guess that is what it is. I I thought it
- 1:58Speaker 1: was the right play the Zigs. There was line value
- 2:01Speaker 1: on it. The market seem to agree as far as
- 2:03Speaker 1: reading like where the professional money was and whatever. I
- 2:06Speaker 1: don't know what else to say about it. I am
- 2:09Speaker 1: happy that in that cluster fuck of a and an
- 2:13Speaker 1: NFL slate yesterday, I was correct on the Chiefs, which
- 2:16Speaker 1: I had in my money entry in my like super
- 2:21Speaker 1: contest type of thing. So I'm still in the money there.
- 2:23Speaker 1: I've started off the week with a win on the
- 2:25Speaker 1: Chiefs covering there, so that was good. I mean, I
- 2:28Speaker 1: should have made it a play. I mean, I was
- 2:31Speaker 1: just worried about the quarterback, young quarterback making his debut,
- 2:35Speaker 1: but obviously it was the right side. It was a
- 2:38Speaker 1: wire to wire or cover and there's no way the
- 2:40Speaker 1: Chiefs should have been a two touchdown dog in that game.
- 2:44Speaker 1: The other games are just ridiculous, especially the Detroit Minnesota game. Dude, Like,
- 2:52Speaker 1: I think that the game is rigged, Like, I don't
- 2:55Speaker 1: know how I'll s even look at this, Like, how
- 2:57Speaker 1: could Jared Goff have like the worst game of his
- 3:00Speaker 1: career in a situation like that, Dan Campbell finally doesn't
- 3:05Speaker 1: have a bounce back anymore doesn't win again ridiculous. This
- 3:11Speaker 1: is a situation where Minnesota had negative three net passing
- 3:15Speaker 1: yards in the game and they won by multiple scores.
- 3:19Speaker 1: Max Brosmer, He's not gonna make it in the NFL.
- 3:23Speaker 1: He is the first quarterback to ever win a game
- 3:27Speaker 1: with fewer than seventy passing yards I believe, and seven
- 3:32Speaker 1: or more sacks against him in the game and still
- 3:35Speaker 1: wins the game. It's absolutely insane. But the one positive
- 3:40Speaker 1: I guess is that my fantasy opponent in my third
- 3:43Speaker 1: place game had Jared Goff and Jamior Gibbs and they
- 3:46Speaker 1: didn't do anything. So that's keeping me alive because my
- 3:49Speaker 1: team isn't doing well either. Josh Johnson, he moved the
- 3:53Speaker 1: ball man yesterday against that Dallas defense. Just all the
- 3:57Speaker 1: touchdowns that got were on the ground. Dallas had given
- 4:01Speaker 1: up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. I thought
- 4:03Speaker 1: Johnson would get at least one, maybe two in that game,
- 4:07Speaker 1: and it didn't happen. But he wasn't terrible. Washington did
- 4:10Speaker 1: cover the the numbers that were out there, except they
- 4:13Speaker 1: didn't cover in my pick him game on ESPN because
- 4:17Speaker 1: ESPN had six and a half. And then you have
- 4:18Speaker 1: to I hate when that happens because then you're on
- 4:21Speaker 1: the wrong side of the key number, but your thoughts
- 4:24Speaker 1: on the game or that you want that side, but
- 4:26Speaker 1: you're not getting the best number. I absolutely hate having
- 4:29Speaker 1: to pick a game like that. Ridiculous. But Johnson should
- 4:33Speaker 1: have done better for me. I'm kind of pissed about that,
- 4:36Speaker 1: but I'm alive in the third place game because my
- 4:39Speaker 1: opponents players did so bad. QB raiding or QBR I
- 4:45Speaker 1: don't even I don't put that much weight into either really,
- 4:48Speaker 1: but QBR, I mean you could use as like somewhat
- 4:51Speaker 1: of a gauge. I don't know. QB rating should be
- 4:54Speaker 1: higher than that. If it's QBR, that would be really high.
- 4:58Speaker 1: I thought Johnson was fine and game though, like he
- 5:01Speaker 1: moved the football all right, it was fine. Washington was
- 5:05Speaker 1: in that game for most of the game to some
- 5:07Speaker 1: extent at least like they maybe had some chances to
- 5:11Speaker 1: get themselves in position there. I don't know. Rating, yeah,
- 5:18Speaker 1: so not QBR. Yeah that's a low rating. But he
- 5:20Speaker 1: had no touchdowns, but he didn't really make any huge mistakes. Jeffrey,
- 5:25Speaker 1: what's up, mister Pinzy, what's up? Chiefs? Yeah? I should
- 5:32Speaker 1: have made that a play, easy, easy cover. There was
- 5:35Speaker 1: absolutely no point where Denver had any chance of covering
- 5:38Speaker 1: that number. The number was just clearly way too high.
- 5:41Speaker 1: It was pretty obviously gonna be a low scoring slugfest
- 5:45Speaker 1: of a game. Bad offenses. All right, let's get into today.
- 5:49Speaker 1: I'm gonna have two NBA plays and I'm gonna give
- 5:51Speaker 1: out one play in the bowls as well, and hopefully
- 5:56Speaker 1: hopefully we can continue with the Bulls because I'm just
- 5:58Speaker 1: being ridiculously selective with the NBA. I'm going against the
- 6:02Speaker 1: market all over the place today. I don't know what
- 6:05Speaker 1: is going on at this market here. First game up
- 6:08Speaker 1: is Miami at Atlanta, and we're gonna get a lot
- 6:10Speaker 1: of spots here. We've had teams with multiple days off,
- 6:14Speaker 1: so you want to come in, you want to, you know,
- 6:17Speaker 1: look for teams that went into the extra break kind
- 6:20Speaker 1: of on a bad note so that maybe they can
- 6:22Speaker 1: fix some things. But also you've got to be aware
- 6:25Speaker 1: that they were celebrating Christmas during that time, so maybe
- 6:28Speaker 1: they weren't fully practicing whatever either. Who knows. I don't
- 6:32Speaker 1: know what goes on. But Miami has lost three games
- 6:35Speaker 1: in a row, and they've lost a lot of games recently.
- 6:38Speaker 1: Eight of their last nine games have been losses. Took
- 6:41Speaker 1: a pretty ugly loss to Toronto in their last game
- 6:44Speaker 1: at home, so I think they're gonna show up for
- 6:46Speaker 1: this game against Atlanta using a couple of days off
- 6:49Speaker 1: to maybe bust that losing momentum up. Atlanta kind of
- 6:54Speaker 1: in a similar boat, though they haven't been playing well either.
- 6:57Speaker 1: They've lost four games in a row, including losing the
- 7:00Speaker 1: back to back games to Chicago. They're staying at home
- 7:04Speaker 1: with the extra time off, but maybe staying at home
- 7:06Speaker 1: is a little bit worse around the holidays because maybe
- 7:08Speaker 1: it's a little bit of an extra distraction. Doesn't landa
- 7:12Speaker 1: look ahead to the Knicks, who they have to play tomorrow.
- 7:15Speaker 1: I mean, there is always the possibility of that. I
- 7:18Speaker 1: guess that maybe, as ridiculous as it sounds, maybe they
- 7:21Speaker 1: do overlook Miami with the heat being on their schedule tomorrow.
- 7:26Speaker 1: I'm gonna like, I'll slightly lean to Miami in this game,
- 7:31Speaker 1: just because I think getting away from home might be
- 7:33Speaker 1: a good thing in a spot like this, But I
- 7:35Speaker 1: don't love the game at all. The market does seem
- 7:38Speaker 1: to agree with that one. Hawks down from four to three,
- 7:41Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the tickets, seventy three percent of
- 7:44Speaker 1: the cash on them, So they seem like a very
- 7:46Speaker 1: public side slightly to Miami there, but not touching that.
- 7:51Speaker 1: That game is awful. Lean Miami, yes, same out of
- 7:55Speaker 1: bio questionable the Nicks miss, Yeah, well it correct about
- 8:00Speaker 1: Cleveland covering that number. There's no way the Cleveland should
- 8:03Speaker 1: have lost that game. Cleveland's winning that game by seventeen
- 8:06Speaker 1: in the second half. I have no idea how they
- 8:09Speaker 1: lost that game. I'm also not a fan of either
- 8:13Speaker 1: of those teams, but I mean I was correct about
- 8:16Speaker 1: the side against the spread though. Charlotte at Orlando, Fuck it,
- 8:22Speaker 1: it's already best bets time. I don't care. I'm just
- 8:24Speaker 1: going in chronological order. I'm going against the market with
- 8:30Speaker 1: this one. We're taking the Charlotte Hornets plus six. I
- 8:34Speaker 1: know we could have gotten seven, or actually seven and
- 8:36Speaker 1: a half. I don't know if it was ever eight.
- 8:38Speaker 1: I know we're on the wrong side of this key number.
- 8:41Speaker 1: We're going completely against the market read here. I do
- 8:44Speaker 1: not care. I think the Magic might have been like
- 8:49Speaker 1: eight might have been the opener when they thought that
- 8:51Speaker 1: maybe one of their injured players is coming back, and
- 8:53Speaker 1: that's not going to be the case. So we're looking
- 8:55Speaker 1: at a thin roster for the Magic. But that's not
- 8:57Speaker 1: the only reason why I like this Charlotte. But they
- 9:01Speaker 1: did just beat Washington before the couple of days off.
- 9:04Speaker 1: But I don't really see this as like a momentum
- 9:06Speaker 1: stopping break for them here, Like I think they're gonna
- 9:09Speaker 1: get up for a game against the Magic, that would
- 9:11Speaker 1: be my opinion, and they don't play again until Monday.
- 9:14Speaker 1: So this is all they really have to focus on
- 9:15Speaker 1: right now. I think it's fine for them to just
- 9:18Speaker 1: leave home focus on a game like this. Really, the
- 9:22Speaker 1: crucial aspects of this all have to do with Orlando
- 9:25Speaker 1: being in a really bad spot here, which is, of
- 9:27Speaker 1: course the return home spot. They were on the road
- 9:31Speaker 1: starting on well, actually they were on the road prior
- 9:34Speaker 1: to this too, because they were in Las Vegas for
- 9:37Speaker 1: the NBA Cup semi finals and they lost to the Knicks.
- 9:42Speaker 1: Probably they did come back home after that, though, then
- 9:44Speaker 1: they went out on the road again and they went
- 9:46Speaker 1: to Denver, Utah, had to play in elevation, you know, overtime,
- 9:50Speaker 1: went to the Pacific Coast, played Golden State and Portland.
- 9:53Speaker 1: And now they're returning home from that, and you know,
- 9:55Speaker 1: I talk about this the return home spot. You haven't
- 9:58Speaker 1: been home for a while. St piles up to have
- 10:01Speaker 1: to do it home, especially when they got home. You
- 10:03Speaker 1: know that they got home and they had to celebrate
- 10:05Speaker 1: the holidays, you know, they had to celebrate Christmas. So
- 10:08Speaker 1: I think that's another added distraction here. You get back
- 10:12Speaker 1: to family life, you're doing all the holiday things whatever,
- 10:15Speaker 1: you're not really focusing on basketball. And then they do
- 10:17Speaker 1: have to play Denver tomorrow, which is not only a
- 10:21Speaker 1: bigger opponent, but they just lost to Denver on that
- 10:24Speaker 1: road trip, so I think that is a significant look
- 10:26Speaker 1: ahead spot as well. Orlando did finish the road trip
- 10:29Speaker 1: with a win over Portland. I don't really care about that,
- 10:32Speaker 1: but I just don't understand what the market sees in
- 10:35Speaker 1: this game. Like this read to me, it's all just bad,
- 10:39Speaker 1: bad spot for Orlando. Orlando is still without Sugs and
- 10:43Speaker 1: without Wagner. I know those things are factoring into the line.
- 10:46Speaker 1: Or you're looking at a very thin Orlando roster right now.
- 10:50Speaker 1: We're taking the Charlotte Hornets plus the points. That's what
- 10:53Speaker 1: there is to it. I see them being a public
- 10:55Speaker 1: dog here, which does worry me. Seventy six percent of
- 10:58Speaker 1: the tickets only sending the cash on the Hornets. But
- 11:01Speaker 1: do you really think the public is coming in and
- 11:04Speaker 1: playing the Charlotte Hornets. There's no way a team. It's
- 11:07Speaker 1: ten and twenty, Magic seventeen and thirteen. I don't see
- 11:11Speaker 1: that happening. And yes, I know we are bucking the
- 11:14Speaker 1: Charlotte being three and twelve on the road Orlando ten
- 11:16Speaker 1: and four at home, But we don't need Charlotte to win,
- 11:19Speaker 1: they need to cover. I just I still don't see
- 11:22Speaker 1: what the market is doing in this game. I don't
- 11:24Speaker 1: think the public would actually be on the Charlotte Hornets here.
- 11:27Speaker 1: When are they ever going to be unless it's against
- 11:29Speaker 1: like the Brooklyn Nets or the Washington Wizards. I don't
- 11:33Speaker 1: see it. We're taking the Hornets. That's that's all there
- 11:37Speaker 1: is to it, all, right, Yeah, Cleveland had a cold stretch.
- 11:43Speaker 1: What white player? What are we talking about, Charles? What's
- 11:46Speaker 1: up man? They's hanging out. Charlotte has one hundred more threes. Yeah, Orlando,
- 11:51Speaker 1: that's not part of their game. They don't take threes.
- 11:54Speaker 1: But that means there's gonna be a lot more variance
- 11:56Speaker 1: on the Charlotte's side, which if they're hitting three, they're
- 12:00Speaker 1: probably gonna be able to do this, and if they're not,
- 12:02Speaker 1: then they're gonna get killed. So there is a lot
- 12:05Speaker 1: of variants there. But this is all about the spot.
- 12:08Speaker 1: But yeah, Orlando, that's not part of their game. They
- 12:11Speaker 1: don't attempt very many three pointers, which in a way,
- 12:14Speaker 1: it makes Orlando easier to handicap in a way, because
- 12:17Speaker 1: you know there's gonna be less variance with what Orlando
- 12:20Speaker 1: does because they just focus on two pointers. They focus
- 12:24Speaker 1: on the more predictable aspects of the game. But then again,
- 12:29Speaker 1: they're down two of their best players right now, so
- 12:32Speaker 1: and yes, that's being factored into the line obviously. Oh,
- 12:37Speaker 1: colek out of Marquette he's on the Knicks. Yeah, I
- 12:40Speaker 1: think I knew that. I don't know. He probably just
- 12:43Speaker 1: hasn't had that much playing time Toronto at Washington. I
- 12:49Speaker 1: disagree with the Marguerite in this one as well. Toronto
- 12:52Speaker 1: just beat Miami before having a couple of days off
- 12:55Speaker 1: for Christmas. I'm guessing that they I would guess they
- 13:00Speaker 1: probably came back home. Oh well, it's I don't know.
- 13:03Speaker 1: Do they celebrate Christmas in Canada? Probably do they come
- 13:06Speaker 1: back home? And now are they going all the way
- 13:08Speaker 1: back to Washington, because I think that would make the
- 13:10Speaker 1: spot even worse. But either way, I don't like the
- 13:12Speaker 1: spot for them. And they do play Golden State in
- 13:14Speaker 1: a couple of days and then Orlando Denver. Those are
- 13:17Speaker 1: all bigger games of facing Washington. So you know where
- 13:20Speaker 1: I'm going with this. It's kind of a weird spot,
- 13:22Speaker 1: kind of a sandwich spot. Here. Our friends, the Wizards,
- 13:26Speaker 1: who have been bad and good for us at various times.
- 13:29Speaker 1: Lost the last two games, including that one to Charlotte
- 13:32Speaker 1: going into the time off, they're back home. They were
- 13:35Speaker 1: only on the road for that game against Charlotte though,
- 13:38Speaker 1: after being home before that. Yeah, I mean the holiday
- 13:41Speaker 1: stuff is gonna be a little bit of a distraction
- 13:43Speaker 1: for them maybe, But I think if you play this game,
- 13:46Speaker 1: you have to take the points of the Wizards. Here
- 13:48Speaker 1: the money again seems like it's completely disagreeing. Wizards sixty
- 13:53Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets. Again, I don't get this,
- 13:56Speaker 1: Like you really think the public side in this game
- 13:58Speaker 1: is the Wizards. There's no fucking way. Uh seventy percent
- 14:02Speaker 1: of the cash on the Raptors. Raptors did drop from
- 14:05Speaker 1: a nine and a half point favorite to an eight
- 14:06Speaker 1: point favorite. I think maybe because of injury issues with
- 14:11Speaker 1: the Raptors. Mostly it's just been Barrett though, and he
- 14:14Speaker 1: just hasn't been back for a while. But I think
- 14:16Speaker 1: maybe they thought he might come back. He's supposed to
- 14:18Speaker 1: be back like in the next game now, but who knows.
- 14:22Speaker 1: He's like probably the third but best player on Toronto.
- 14:26Speaker 1: But whatever, I would take the points with the Wizards
- 14:29Speaker 1: if I was gonna play that game, and I'm not
- 14:31Speaker 1: gonna recommend it. The NBA acted like Canada doesn't celebrate Christmas.
- 14:37Speaker 1: I like that. Screw Canada, man, Canada. They're a bunch
- 14:42Speaker 1: of heathens. Garrett. You did well on props. Hell yeah,
- 14:46Speaker 1: nice Christmas gift there, that's good. Yeah, man, give out
- 14:51Speaker 1: some of your prop info, man, because I'm not really
- 14:55Speaker 1: I don't do the props except I focus on them
- 14:57Speaker 1: on the super Bowl and that's about it. And last
- 14:59Speaker 1: year had a really good super Bowl with it. But
- 15:02Speaker 1: there are props in the Super Bowl that I just
- 15:03Speaker 1: do every year that are not really players specific props.
- 15:06Speaker 1: They're just more you get a better number because the public.
- 15:09Speaker 1: They're like public mind fuck props mostly that I like
- 15:12Speaker 1: to do. I do a couple of player props as
- 15:14Speaker 1: well though in football, but just in like the biggest games.
- 15:19Speaker 1: But then again, you're going up against more fine tune
- 15:22Speaker 1: numbers in the Super Bowl and the Commerce Championships and whatever.
- 15:26Speaker 1: Merry Christmas to you as well. I hope your Christmas
- 15:28Speaker 1: is good everybody, Wizards, Yes, I agree, A good day
- 15:35Speaker 1: for them on the market. Yes, you beat the market
- 15:39Speaker 1: Canada there, yeah, there, their hands are covered with with
- 15:44Speaker 1: maple syrup and I don't know, Jiz, probably all right,
- 15:48Speaker 1: my Boston Celtics are at Indiana. There could be maybe
- 15:52Speaker 1: some zig zag aspects of this with the Celtics did
- 15:55Speaker 1: beat Indiana at home, but the Celtics pretty much won
- 15:59Speaker 1: by an expected margin there, so it wasn't really an outlier.
- 16:02Speaker 1: Except the main thing that was weird about that game
- 16:06Speaker 1: with the Celtics against Indiana at home was that Indiana
- 16:09Speaker 1: had a giant lead in the game. Indiana was winning
- 16:12Speaker 1: that game by twenty something points. Probably Celtics packed it
- 16:16Speaker 1: in and benched their starters and their backups got them
- 16:20Speaker 1: back in the game, and then they put the starters
- 16:22Speaker 1: back in and they won the game. So it was
- 16:25Speaker 1: a brutal way for Indiana to lose that game. But
- 16:28Speaker 1: now the Celtics of an Austin, it's Monday, which might
- 16:30Speaker 1: hurt their momentum a little bit, but they are starting
- 16:33Speaker 1: a road trip and they only play Portland and Utah
- 16:35Speaker 1: and Sacramento and the Clippers in the remaining games on
- 16:38Speaker 1: the road trip, so it's not like really a look
- 16:40Speaker 1: ahead for them. So I kind of think maybe they
- 16:43Speaker 1: will show up again to start this road trip and
- 16:46Speaker 1: the Celtics might actually be the team that has adjustments
- 16:49Speaker 1: to make because Indiana was running them off the court
- 16:52Speaker 1: when the starters are out there, and Indiana they're not
- 16:55Speaker 1: really gonna be able to adjust to the Celtics beating
- 16:59Speaker 1: them with their bench, really, I mean maybe when the
- 17:01Speaker 1: once the Celtics do have their bench coming into this game.
- 17:04Speaker 1: But that's like, it's such a weird situation where it's
- 17:07Speaker 1: like Indiana almost doesn't really have anything that they could
- 17:10Speaker 1: really adjust to necessarily coming out of that game. For Indiana,
- 17:14Speaker 1: they also played a game in between the two games,
- 17:17Speaker 1: which was against Milwaukee and they took a bad loss. Again,
- 17:21Speaker 1: I told you not to play Indiana in that game.
- 17:24Speaker 1: Like I said, it was Milwaukee or pass. In that game,
- 17:28Speaker 1: Indiana was in a Boston Celtic corned beef sandwich there
- 17:33Speaker 1: and Milwaukee embarrassed them. Then Indiana since then, I mean,
- 17:37Speaker 1: they stayed at home. They can kind of disrupt that
- 17:40Speaker 1: lost streak. Potentially they will show up for a game
- 17:43Speaker 1: against Boston, So I think it might be a spot
- 17:45Speaker 1: where both teams show up. The Celtics are an eight
- 17:48Speaker 1: point favorite, up to eight and a half. Actually, now
- 17:51Speaker 1: public is all on the Celtics side. That does make
- 17:53Speaker 1: sense to me. Ninety two percent of the tickets are
- 17:55Speaker 1: on the Celtics, only seventy nine percent of the cash.
- 17:58Speaker 1: Margaret is saying to take the points of the Pacers.
- 18:02Speaker 1: I mean, I would have a very very slight agreement
- 18:06Speaker 1: with that, but I don't love it by any means
- 18:09Speaker 1: at all. I think both teams have reason to maybe
- 18:12Speaker 1: show up for that one. So I'm staying away from
- 18:14Speaker 1: that one completely, very very weak opinion on the Pacers
- 18:18Speaker 1: in that one, right, Yeah, Celtics and Pacers don't turn
- 18:23Speaker 1: it over much. Celtics very very good at holding onto
- 18:26Speaker 1: the ball. Yeah, one of the best in the league
- 18:28Speaker 1: of the Celtics, which is a little bit different from
- 18:31Speaker 1: years past, or they've had some discipline issues. What are
- 18:36Speaker 1: we talking about, con Canipple, you're you're going over on
- 18:41Speaker 1: Carnipple the nipple over. Yeah, they'll they'll adjust the line eventually.
- 18:48Speaker 1: But yeah, well thanks thanks for the info there. So Canipple,
- 18:54Speaker 1: who's h He's on Charlotte, right, So he's he's in
- 18:56Speaker 1: that game that that I gave out a side on
- 18:59Speaker 1: there you do PR and R yeah and PR yeah, correct, Yeah,
- 19:07Speaker 1: so points plus rebounds plus assists, rebounds plus assists points
- 19:11Speaker 1: plus rebounds, right, because yeah, I think that's a good
- 19:15Speaker 1: idea because the straight like the market for just like
- 19:19Speaker 1: straight up points, I think probably gets more public play
- 19:22Speaker 1: than like PRA and stuff like that. So yeah, and PRA,
- 19:26Speaker 1: you have like more ways to win it, right, Like,
- 19:28Speaker 1: if it's a well rounded player, he can get you
- 19:30Speaker 1: over that number by doing any of those things. Although
- 19:33Speaker 1: that's kind of I mean, it's factor into the line,
- 19:35Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean there are definitely professionals that that
- 19:39Speaker 1: agree with you on that and that that hit that
- 19:42Speaker 1: market that way. That is some good info, Thank you, Garrett. Yes, okay,
- 19:49Speaker 1: all right, we got Philadelphia at Chicago. Philadelphia had a
- 19:54Speaker 1: really ugly loss to Brooklyn. Going into the extra break
- 19:58Speaker 1: here starting a road trip. Kind of think they're gonna
- 20:02Speaker 1: show up for this game. I mean, coming up that
- 20:04Speaker 1: ugly loss, he kind of gotta be focused on your
- 20:06Speaker 1: next game. Going on the road might help. They do
- 20:09Speaker 1: have Oklahoma City on Sunday. Is that a potential look
- 20:12Speaker 1: at I guess maybe, but I don't know. I don't
- 20:14Speaker 1: really see Philadelphia after that loss. I don't really see
- 20:18Speaker 1: them overlooking any team that they're playing right now for Chicago.
- 20:22Speaker 1: They went into that break on four wins in a row,
- 20:26Speaker 1: sweeping the home and home against Cleveland and then beating
- 20:28Speaker 1: Atlanta twice, both on the road. So I think the
- 20:32Speaker 1: spot is actually worse for the Bulls here. I'm not
- 20:35Speaker 1: gonna say they're definitely gonna overlook Philadelphia, but I think
- 20:38Speaker 1: that holiday break could kind of stop Chicago's momentum a
- 20:42Speaker 1: little bit. So if I was gonna play this game
- 20:44Speaker 1: at all, I think I would have to play the Sixers.
- 20:47Speaker 1: And the money again seems to not agree, even though
- 20:49Speaker 1: the Sixers initially flip from a one and a half
- 20:51Speaker 1: point favorite, excuse me one and that point dog to
- 20:54Speaker 1: a pick gum, excuse me ninety of the tickets only
- 20:57Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the cash on the Sixers. Though.
- 21:00Speaker 1: I do agree that the Sixers could be a public
- 21:03Speaker 1: side here, but I I just don't see it. Man, Again,
- 21:07Speaker 1: I disagree with the market on that one. I think
- 21:08Speaker 1: it would be Sixers if you're gonna play the side
- 21:11Speaker 1: on that one or pass the game on that one.
- 21:15Speaker 1: The Bulls had a huge comeback against them on November fourth.
- 21:18Speaker 1: I just don't really pay much attention to games that
- 21:20Speaker 1: happened like almost two months ago. I just don't think
- 21:23Speaker 1: there's really that much to look at, Like, I mean,
- 21:27Speaker 1: one thing that you can do is like see like
- 21:29Speaker 1: it was there like an outlier or anything, like we're
- 21:31Speaker 1: certain guys like not in the game at that point,
- 21:34Speaker 1: because there could be like maybe a matchup thing where oh,
- 21:36Speaker 1: this seam matches up well against them, or this team
- 21:39Speaker 1: didn't have these players available in that game, so maybe
- 21:42Speaker 1: that's why they lost that game. But other than that,
- 21:44Speaker 1: I don't think revenge is like a mode of at all.
- 21:47Speaker 1: Like when it comes to, oh, these teams played two
- 21:49Speaker 1: months ago, I don't think that really matters very much.
- 21:52Speaker 1: I think the playoff revenge is a motivator because you
- 21:56Speaker 1: remember that that team ended your season. Something like that
- 21:58Speaker 1: is bigger and but you still don't want to overrate
- 22:01Speaker 1: that either. And then the other thing is when the
- 22:04Speaker 1: teams play again right away, it's not really revenge. It's
- 22:08Speaker 1: more the zig zag spot where sometimes you get line
- 22:11Speaker 1: value fading whatever was the outlier in the prior game,
- 22:14Speaker 1: and the team that was on the wrong side of
- 22:16Speaker 1: that outlier, they're the team that has the adjustments to make.
- 22:19Speaker 1: So that's really what it is. It's not really revenge
- 22:24Speaker 1: lean sixers. Yes, I agree. Leftovers, Yeah, they are leftovers.
- 22:32Speaker 1: We have our Christmas food is It primarily consists of
- 22:38Speaker 1: turkey pies that are like individual sized turkey pot pies
- 22:44Speaker 1: that my brother in law my sister make. My brother
- 22:46Speaker 1: in law is mostly responsible for them. He makes maybe
- 22:50Speaker 1: the best pie crust in existence. I don't know how
- 22:53Speaker 1: he makes it, but it's insane. And yeah, there are
- 22:56Speaker 1: always some of those pies left over, so we get
- 23:00Speaker 1: we get some additional pies there. That's pretty much it.
- 23:04Speaker 1: And uh, it's it's a way to use some of
- 23:07Speaker 1: the turkey that still exists from Thanksgiving, and then we
- 23:10Speaker 1: had like some we had some new like fresh turkey
- 23:14Speaker 1: to it as well, in addition to the leftover turkey.
- 23:20Speaker 1: Your leftovers are in the oven right now? What are they?
- 23:23Speaker 1: What do you got, Jeffrey? Oh yeah, you had that
- 23:26Speaker 1: bad egg salad. Jeffrey got an egg salad sandwich from
- 23:29Speaker 1: seven eleven. I don't think egg salad is good at
- 23:32Speaker 1: all to begin with, but I would not trust a
- 23:34Speaker 1: seven eleven eggs salad at all if it was like
- 23:37Speaker 1: some homemade egg salad with some good eggs that were
- 23:40Speaker 1: just cooked or whatever. Maybe I could deal with that.
- 23:43Speaker 1: Egg salad I don't know, just rubs me the wrong way.
- 23:45Speaker 1: I think it's kind of gross. It smells horrible. And
- 23:48Speaker 1: I like eggs too, and I like almost every variety
- 23:51Speaker 1: of egg Like basically, egg salad is the only variety
- 23:55Speaker 1: of eggs that I'm not really that on board with.
- 23:58Speaker 1: Like I eat deviled eggs, Boiled eggs are fine. Whatever, Yeah,
- 24:03Speaker 1: any kind except for egg salad pretty much. There's there's
- 24:09Speaker 1: some fentanyl going in there. What. Oh, pizza and fried shrimp,
- 24:13Speaker 1: Hell yeah, we had pizza on Christmas Eve that has
- 24:15Speaker 1: become a tradition. There is definitely leftover pizza for Christmas
- 24:19Speaker 1: Eve as well. We didn't make it though. It's from
- 24:21Speaker 1: like a local pizza place that happened to be open.
- 24:25Speaker 1: Not the soul Shore, Massachusetts bar pizza though, the Bay
- 24:29Speaker 1: Pizza that we usually do all those places we switch
- 24:33Speaker 1: locations here in those place those places weren't the places
- 24:37Speaker 1: in the area weren't open, so we had to we
- 24:41Speaker 1: had to call it audible and get to like just
- 24:44Speaker 1: a typical like house of pizza style pizza instead. Still
- 24:48Speaker 1: pretty good though, your mom made sausage balls, Hell yeah.
- 24:54Speaker 1: You're eating your mom's balls. Those juice, those do sound awesome.
- 25:01Speaker 1: I mean me as a as a an Italian and
- 25:05Speaker 1: a Swede, my entire life is basically been meatballs of
- 25:08Speaker 1: one kind or another. So yeah, you know them down
- 25:11Speaker 1: with meatballs. I am a meatball. Milwaukee at Memphis Milwaukee.
- 25:19Speaker 1: They went into the break beating Indiana. I don't know
- 25:21Speaker 1: that they're really gonna care that much. I mean, that
- 25:24Speaker 1: did break a losing streak for them. Maybe having the
- 25:27Speaker 1: extra time level will hurt their momentum again, but I
- 25:30Speaker 1: don't know. I kind of think they'll show up for
- 25:31Speaker 1: a game against Memphis Milwaukee. I mean, yeah, they're without Yannis.
- 25:35Speaker 1: They haven't played well without Yannis a Memphis, they got
- 25:38Speaker 1: injury issues with their own. I think Morant is injured again.
- 25:42Speaker 1: Edie is out still as well. Memphis in kind of
- 25:46Speaker 1: a similar ish spot where they broke a low Streek
- 25:49Speaker 1: as well before going into the holiday break beating Utah.
- 25:54Speaker 1: Not something they're gonna be in a letdown spot after
- 25:57Speaker 1: or anything like that. They're back home here after they
- 26:00Speaker 1: were on the road just for Oklahoma City and Utah,
- 26:03Speaker 1: so not a long road trip. Don't really see this
- 26:06Speaker 1: as like a road trip return spot, but maybe a
- 26:08Speaker 1: little bit of a distraction being at home this game.
- 26:10Speaker 1: I just don't really have much of an opinion on
- 26:12Speaker 1: it all. Can't really figure it out. I could tell
- 26:15Speaker 1: you it looks like the Bucks are a public dog
- 26:18Speaker 1: in this one, which again doesn't totally make sense to me.
- 26:21Speaker 1: Ninety two percent of the tickets, only eighty seven percent
- 26:23Speaker 1: of the cash. The Grizzlies up from five to five
- 26:25Speaker 1: and a half. I'm not I'm not really gonna disagree
- 26:28Speaker 1: with the Grizzlies here though. I just don't have a
- 26:30Speaker 1: strong opinion on this one at all. The market read
- 26:33Speaker 1: is saying the Grizzlies are an anti public favorite, so
- 26:36Speaker 1: I guess that's how I'll look at the game. Morant
- 26:40Speaker 1: is upgraded to questionable, all right, Yeah, so something to
- 26:43Speaker 1: keep an eye on there if he comes back. I
- 26:45Speaker 1: think you might want to fade Memphis like I'd be
- 26:49Speaker 1: more keen on fading Memphis if he does come back,
- 26:52Speaker 1: because then the line might move further up, and you
- 26:55Speaker 1: know I talk about Morant being a chemistry killer. Plus,
- 26:57Speaker 1: it would be like the reverse injured play spot again
- 27:00Speaker 1: where your star player comes back he's got to adjust again.
- 27:04Speaker 1: The team has to adjust again. The line is gonna
- 27:07Speaker 1: probably over adjust him being back that type of thing.
- 27:10Speaker 1: Phoenix is at New Orleans. Phoenix beat the Lakers in
- 27:14Speaker 1: a major beat down. The Lakers have not looked good recently.
- 27:18Speaker 1: Phoenix crushed them by whatever that is. Twenty four points
- 27:23Speaker 1: is out that is going into the break. Huge win
- 27:27Speaker 1: for Phoenix. Could be a letdown spot here for sure.
- 27:29Speaker 1: I mean that break might hurt their momentum a little bit.
- 27:32Speaker 1: They played New Orleans, but they do play New Orleans
- 27:34Speaker 1: again tomorrow, so it's not really a sandwich or a
- 27:38Speaker 1: look ahead. But I think it is pretty much a
- 27:39Speaker 1: letdown spot for Phoenix here. For New Orleans, they got
- 27:43Speaker 1: embarrassed by Cleveland in their last game, so we have
- 27:46Speaker 1: a game here where teams are on the opposite sides
- 27:49Speaker 1: of like these major outliers. The one thing I worry
- 27:52Speaker 1: about with New Orleans is that lost to Cleveland broke
- 27:54Speaker 1: a win streak of theirs. They'd won five games in
- 27:57Speaker 1: a row prior to that, and sometimes when a team
- 27:59Speaker 1: loses a wins, it kind of hurts their momentum. It
- 28:03Speaker 1: gives them a hangover into the next game, So I
- 28:06Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit, but it was a
- 28:07Speaker 1: blowout loss to Cleveland, losing one eighteen. They should bounce
- 28:14Speaker 1: back from that, although yes, they are back at home
- 28:16Speaker 1: around the holidays, which could be a little bit of
- 28:17Speaker 1: a distraction as well. I lean Pelicans in this one,
- 28:22Speaker 1: and again the market read is disagreeing with me on this.
- 28:25Speaker 1: Pelicans have eighty four percent of the tickets, but there's
- 28:28Speaker 1: no way, dude, there's no way that the public is
- 28:31Speaker 1: playing the Pelicans here. So again I don't get it.
- 28:34Speaker 1: Sixty percent of the cash on the Suns. They're up
- 28:38Speaker 1: from two and a half to five here, so there
- 28:39Speaker 1: must have been some injury I think for the Suns
- 28:42Speaker 1: or something where now whoever it was is playing. I mean,
- 28:46Speaker 1: I don't see anybody influencing the line to that degree
- 28:49Speaker 1: except for maybe Booker though, so I don't know the coreer.
- 28:52Speaker 1: I mean, I looked at the injury reporting. There wasn't
- 28:54Speaker 1: really much to see in this game. There isn't really
- 28:57Speaker 1: any injury on the Pelican side that would swing that
- 28:59Speaker 1: line like that, So I don't know. If I was
- 29:02Speaker 1: gonna play it, I would take the points with New
- 29:04Speaker 1: Orleans though, no idea. No, I just don't think that
- 29:11Speaker 1: that number is accurate at all. The public does not
- 29:14Speaker 1: think like the way that professional betters think like. No,
- 29:19Speaker 1: the public is absolutely the public is gonna be on Phoenix.
- 29:23Speaker 1: There is no way that the public is gonna play
- 29:25Speaker 1: New Orleans for any reason. They just don't think that way.
- 29:29Speaker 1: New Orleans is not going to be a public side.
- 29:31Speaker 1: That's there's just nothing else to say about him. The
- 29:35Speaker 1: only I mean, the only reason I could see maybe
- 29:38Speaker 1: that that would be the case is because they'd won
- 29:40Speaker 1: four or five games in a row. But even with that,
- 29:42Speaker 1: I don't think they would be The public looks at
- 29:44Speaker 1: the records, they don't want New Orleans. I mean, they're
- 29:47Speaker 1: gonna fade New Orleans against most teams, especially they just
- 29:50Speaker 1: saw Phoenix crush the Lakers. There's no way. There's just
- 29:54Speaker 1: no way New Orleans might look ahead to the Knicks.
- 30:01Speaker 1: I don't know about that. I mean, the Suns I
- 30:04Speaker 1: think are a bigger deal. New Orleans is in the
- 30:06Speaker 1: Western Conference, aren't they. I don't know. I don't really
- 30:10Speaker 1: see New Orleans overlooking the Suns at least definitely not
- 30:13Speaker 1: in the first game. The Suns have been pretty decent.
- 30:17Speaker 1: Pool was upgraded to questionable. Yeah, but I mean he
- 30:21Speaker 1: doesn't affect the line like at all, But why would
- 30:23Speaker 1: the line move more on Phoenix. I don't know, it
- 30:26Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense New TV. Hell yeah, what kind
- 30:29Speaker 1: of TV is it? That is a that is an
- 30:33Speaker 1: awesome Christmas gift? Yeah, I do not agree with the
- 30:37Speaker 1: Suns in that game. I think there's no way that
- 30:41Speaker 1: you can play the Suns off of that ridiculous win
- 30:43Speaker 1: over the Lakers. This is no way. It's way too
- 30:46Speaker 1: satisfying of a win Detroit at Utah. Detroit went into
- 30:53Speaker 1: that break on three wins in a row, could bust
- 30:55Speaker 1: up their momentum a little bit. He gotta think they
- 30:59Speaker 1: like they come back home, like is that what they
- 31:01Speaker 1: do with they were out on the Pacific coast? You
- 31:03Speaker 1: gotta think they came back home and now they're going
- 31:05Speaker 1: back out on the road again. Maybe yeah, I mean
- 31:08Speaker 1: they'll be I guess focused potentially to start a road trip.
- 31:12Speaker 1: But I see it more as their momentum being stopped.
- 31:15Speaker 1: And then after this they play both LA teams, which
- 31:18Speaker 1: you go to LA, you're gonna be focused on the Lakers.
- 31:20Speaker 1: So I don't know. I could definitely see Detroit overlooking
- 31:23Speaker 1: the jazz here Jazz coming into this kind of in
- 31:27Speaker 1: the opposite way, having lost three games in a row
- 31:31Speaker 1: going into the break, that could help end their losing momentum.
- 31:35Speaker 1: So I could see them being in the better spot here.
- 31:38Speaker 1: For sure, they get this game at home, Piston's coming in.
- 31:41Speaker 1: I think the Jazz will be focused here. I would
- 31:43Speaker 1: lean to the Jazz. And again the market read doesn't
- 31:46Speaker 1: make any sense to me and is saying no again,
- 31:49Speaker 1: like like, how many of these games are there gonna be? Like,
- 31:53Speaker 1: you can't think that any of these percentages are accurate?
- 31:56Speaker 1: Like you seriously think that the Pelicans, the Jazz? Who else?
- 32:00Speaker 1: Did I mention the Wizards and the Hornets? You seriously
- 32:05Speaker 1: think all of these teams are public sides today. There's
- 32:08Speaker 1: no fucking way, dude, no way. The Jazz as of now,
- 32:12Speaker 1: according to pregame here eighty seven percent of the tickets
- 32:15Speaker 1: on the Jazz and eighty six percent of the cash,
- 32:18Speaker 1: which would mean the Pisses are an anti public road favorite.
- 32:20Speaker 1: There's there's no way, there's no way that the public
- 32:23Speaker 1: is playing the Jazz here. I'm sorry, even with recency bias,
- 32:27Speaker 1: I mean, the Pistons have been the team that's been
- 32:29Speaker 1: winning recently too, there's just no way these numbers are
- 32:32Speaker 1: not correct. I don't have anything else to say about it.
- 32:35Speaker 1: I think if you play the game, you gotta take
- 32:37Speaker 1: the points of the Jazz, and that's all I have
- 32:40Speaker 1: to say about it. Really, Sons and Pelicans, I mean,
- 32:47Speaker 1: tomorrow's handicap entirely. It should depend on what appens today
- 32:50Speaker 1: because it becomes a zig zag spot NBA, the Knicks
- 32:57Speaker 1: and colec I mean colek has been around for a while,
- 33:01Speaker 1: Like when when did he get drafted? It was probably
- 33:04Speaker 1: like two years ago at this point. I mean, he's
- 33:06Speaker 1: not new to the NBA. He just I guess he
- 33:09Speaker 1: had a big game yesterday. You're going under in the
- 33:14Speaker 1: Jazz game of two forty four and a half. I
- 33:17Speaker 1: don't really have any opinion on that at all. I
- 33:19Speaker 1: mean I don't disagree with unders in general in these
- 33:22Speaker 1: games where teams have had a long layoff, because the
- 33:25Speaker 1: offense gets more effected by the layoffs. So I think
- 33:27Speaker 1: under in like the first half makes a lot of
- 33:30Speaker 1: sense if you think teams are gonna start slow because
- 33:32Speaker 1: they haven't played for a while, so they got to
- 33:35Speaker 1: get back in rhythm again. So like first quarter, first half,
- 33:38Speaker 1: under does make a lot of sense in these games
- 33:41Speaker 1: in general. Today, the number the market looks like it's
- 33:45Speaker 1: indicating on the over in that game seventy five percent
- 33:48Speaker 1: tickets and ninety five percent of the cash on the over.
- 33:50Speaker 1: It's up to two forty four and a half from
- 33:52Speaker 1: two forty three. But again, I don't trust any of
- 33:54Speaker 1: these numbers that I'm seeing as of right now, So
- 33:59Speaker 1: all of that with a grain of salt there. If
- 34:01Speaker 1: I was gonna play the under in that game, I
- 34:03Speaker 1: probably would limit it to the first half, though, or
- 34:06Speaker 1: first quarter. Yahoo's showing the opposite stats. I don't trust
- 34:11Speaker 1: Yaho's numbers at all either, though I don't even know
- 34:13Speaker 1: where the fuck they get their numbers, Like what what
- 34:16Speaker 1: sports book are they tracking? Because this site here tracks
- 34:19Speaker 1: again like it does include DraftKings, but it's much more
- 34:24Speaker 1: focus on like the Vegas casinos and the the sharp
- 34:28Speaker 1: like offline books all get included here, so it gives
- 34:30Speaker 1: this site gives me a better gauge of what the
- 34:33Speaker 1: market is. But I also have my own, like I
- 34:36Speaker 1: have my own gauge on where the public is gonna be,
- 34:38Speaker 1: and usually I'm right about where the public is gonna be.
- 34:41Speaker 1: So and especially games like this. I mean, it's just
- 34:44Speaker 1: so obvious that these numbers are not accurate. Like I mean,
- 34:49Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say. Clippers Blazers is
- 34:52Speaker 1: the last game I have today in the best bets
- 34:54Speaker 1: portion for the NBA, We're gonna take the Portland Trailblazers
- 34:58Speaker 1: plus two to two and a half whatever. Clippers have
- 35:01Speaker 1: moved to a two to two and a half point
- 35:02Speaker 1: favorite here from a pick them fifty percent of tickets
- 35:05Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the cash on them money is
- 35:07Speaker 1: saying the Clippers right now. I do not agree with it, obviously.
- 35:12Speaker 1: I still think the Clippers are asked they're without Zubac
- 35:15Speaker 1: right now. I don't know why the line has moved
- 35:17Speaker 1: like this. Zubak he's not their best player, but he's
- 35:20Speaker 1: certainly younger than James Harden and Kawhi Leonards, so like,
- 35:26Speaker 1: I know, Leonard's been playing well recently, but like, come on, man,
- 35:28Speaker 1: those guys are old. Zubac is a key piece for
- 35:32Speaker 1: the the Clippers. Man, I think without him it's gonna
- 35:35Speaker 1: hurt them a bit. Clippers, Yes, they have been playing
- 35:38Speaker 1: a little bit better recently. They won two games in
- 35:40Speaker 1: a row, but look at what they did. Man, they
- 35:42Speaker 1: blew out the Lakers pretty much blew them out, and
- 35:45Speaker 1: then they blew out Houston, both at home for the Clippers.
- 35:48Speaker 1: So the Clippers able to get some home cooking again there.
- 35:52Speaker 1: The Clippers maybe actually starting to play a little bit
- 35:54Speaker 1: better at home right now. But you've gotta think this
- 35:56Speaker 1: is a letdown spot off of those wins. They go
- 35:58Speaker 1: into the holiday break on a huge note like that,
- 36:02Speaker 1: with two monster wins against two of the better teams
- 36:05Speaker 1: in the conference. Then they sit around for a while
- 36:08Speaker 1: basking in that whatever. You know, it could disrupt their momentum.
- 36:12Speaker 1: Then they have a single road game or they have
- 36:13Speaker 1: to go to Portland really and then on Sunday they're
- 36:16Speaker 1: back home and they have to play the Pistons, which
- 36:18Speaker 1: I think could be a big time look I had.
- 36:20Speaker 1: I mean, I know they're not in the same conference,
- 36:22Speaker 1: but we you know how good Detroit's record is. I
- 36:26Speaker 1: think that could set up a look ahead there. I
- 36:28Speaker 1: think it's a weird spot. I think it's a sandwich spot.
- 36:31Speaker 1: I don't like it at all for the Clippers Portland.
- 36:35Speaker 1: Portland is coming into this one off of two straight losses.
- 36:38Speaker 1: Staying at home, I think that might be a good
- 36:41Speaker 1: thing to try to disrupt that momentum. They weren't bad
- 36:44Speaker 1: in those losses. They had close losses to Detroit and Orlando.
- 36:48Speaker 1: Normally I might say, well, this team, you know, they
- 36:50Speaker 1: put in a big effort. Maybe they'll be in a
- 36:52Speaker 1: little bit of a hangover after that. But in this case,
- 36:54Speaker 1: I don't think so. They've had multiple days off, they
- 36:56Speaker 1: can break that losing momentum. I don't know that you
- 36:59Speaker 1: have to worry about the look ahead to Boston. I
- 37:02Speaker 1: mean it's the the Drew Holiday Bowl or whatever, if
- 37:06Speaker 1: you want to call it that, because he hasn't played
- 37:09Speaker 1: against his former team, the Celtics until potentially tomorrow. But
- 37:13Speaker 1: I don't know if he's going to be back. I
- 37:14Speaker 1: think he's still injured, so I don't know. I see
- 37:17Speaker 1: Portland showing up in this game. Though. The Clippers are
- 37:20Speaker 1: also horrific on the road. They're three and thirteen on
- 37:23Speaker 1: the road. Blazers are a little bit more of a
- 37:25Speaker 1: palatable five and eight, five and eight at home. Clippers
- 37:31Speaker 1: at home, I should say yea. The Clippers. By the way,
- 37:34Speaker 1: also I mentioned Zubach, he's like their best young player.
- 37:38Speaker 1: He got hurt in the game against the Lakers. He
- 37:40Speaker 1: did not play against Houston, so that was kind of
- 37:43Speaker 1: an injured player spot there against Houston, where first game
- 37:46Speaker 1: with him out, they really stepped up their game for it.
- 37:48Speaker 1: And when that happens, I think they also take a
- 37:50Speaker 1: little bit of a step back in the next game
- 37:52Speaker 1: without him. I looked he's not going to be back.
- 37:55Speaker 1: Portland is still without grants and without holiday though, like
- 38:00Speaker 1: I said, until probably the next game, so you do
- 38:02Speaker 1: have to worry about that a little bit. I mean,
- 38:03Speaker 1: those are two of their better players. But I'm still
- 38:06Speaker 1: gonna roll with it with Portland in this one. The
- 38:09Speaker 1: fact that they're rested at least helps with their shorthandedness
- 38:13Speaker 1: a little bit here again disagreeing with the market. Portland
- 38:16Speaker 1: is the play in that one, grabbing whatever points you
- 38:19Speaker 1: can get there bet MGM, So yeah, who's only showing
- 38:26Speaker 1: bet MGM. Yeah, I would not trust that at all.
- 38:29Speaker 1: Bet MGM is all gonna be it's gonna be way
- 38:31Speaker 1: too skewed towards basically just all public, like you don't
- 38:35Speaker 1: get a good indicator of where the actual professional betters are.
- 38:39Speaker 1: Bet MGM is also a slow book, like they lag behind.
- 38:44Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't like that at all. I would,
- 38:46Speaker 1: I would, certainly, I don't. I don't like looking at
- 38:48Speaker 1: money just from one book. I actually hate that because
- 38:51Speaker 1: it's like it's that dude, what's his name, like John
- 38:55Speaker 1: Ewing or whatever, the dude on he's one of the
- 38:58Speaker 1: MGM guys or whatever on Twitter, and he gives out
- 39:01Speaker 1: all the numbers that are just MGM, and I'm like,
- 39:03Speaker 1: this guy's full of shit, Like his gauge on the
- 39:06Speaker 1: public is just completely inaccurate. Like you talk to these
- 39:10Speaker 1: guys that work one single sports book and they're telling you,
- 39:13Speaker 1: like you listen to these guys and they're telling you,
- 39:15Speaker 1: like where the money is, and yeah, that's that's information
- 39:19Speaker 1: that's valuable, but they don't know how to interpret that
- 39:21Speaker 1: information correctly. You need like an amalgam of all these
- 39:25Speaker 1: books here, which is why I like this site better
- 39:27Speaker 1: than any other way that I've looked at it. So yeah,
- 39:29Speaker 1: I don't like that at all. An Action network is
- 39:33Speaker 1: way skewed towards like DraftKings Fan Duel MGM, and that
- 39:36Speaker 1: doesn't give you a good gauge on it either, really,
- 39:39Speaker 1: So I don't like that, Garrett. I don't even know
- 39:44Speaker 1: what the hell score bet is I mean, my favorite
- 39:47Speaker 1: ones were sites that I'm not allowed to mention on YouTube,
- 39:51Speaker 1: that are sites that are let's say not in the
- 39:54Speaker 1: United States. Out of the legal ones, I mean, I
- 40:00Speaker 1: don't know. I mean I think DraftKings is probably the
- 40:03Speaker 1: easiest to use out of the legal ones. You don't
- 40:06Speaker 1: get the best numbers MGM and Caesar's lag behind a
- 40:10Speaker 1: lot in the numbers, so those give you better numbers
- 40:12Speaker 1: a lot. So I have to I have to kind
- 40:14Speaker 1: of like that about those books. Their shittiness, you know,
- 40:20Speaker 1: they're like slow response time, maybe makes them better for us.
- 40:24Speaker 1: Zubag is a pokemon, you matrosexual? What's up, man? Thanks
- 40:28Speaker 1: for hanging out. Clippers have the better field goal percentage
- 40:33Speaker 1: of Portland scores more points. Yeah, some Clippers they play
- 40:36Speaker 1: really slow. Portland plays a faster style. I don't really
- 40:40Speaker 1: pay attention to tempo that much in the NBA, though
- 40:43Speaker 1: Portland is the better rebounding team yea. And Zubac being
- 40:45Speaker 1: out's not gonna help the Clippers on the glass either,
- 40:49Speaker 1: because he is their starting centers. So all right, And
- 40:55Speaker 1: then we have college football bowls. I am gonna give
- 40:57Speaker 1: out a play on one, which was one that I
- 40:59Speaker 1: liked from the begining. We're getting a little bit worse
- 41:02Speaker 1: of a number on it, but I still think it's
- 41:03Speaker 1: worth it. First, we got to talk about the game
- 41:06Speaker 1: at one pm. This is an ESPN triple header. These
- 41:09Speaker 1: are Eastern time where I am the Eastern time zone.
- 41:13Speaker 1: One pm we have the Game Above Sports Bowl. I
- 41:17Speaker 1: have no idea what Game Above Sports even is. I
- 41:20Speaker 1: don't know if it's a what the hell is Game
- 41:23Speaker 1: Above Sports? Is it a sports news network? Is it
- 41:25Speaker 1: a gambling site? I don't fucking know. But that's the
- 41:29Speaker 1: new sponsor for the ford Field Bowl, which used to
- 41:32Speaker 1: be what the hell was it? It's it's been a
- 41:35Speaker 1: bunch of different names it was. It was like the
- 41:37Speaker 1: Motor City Bowl. It had a bunch of different sponsors.
- 41:40Speaker 1: I don't know. I forget what the most recent other
- 41:42Speaker 1: sponsor was for this bowl. But Eastern. Yeah, I kind
- 41:46Speaker 1: of prefer it, just because the games don't start like
- 41:49Speaker 1: at nine am. Circa gets the most sports action. Circa
- 41:56Speaker 1: is is considered to be the they can or better
- 42:00Speaker 1: to the professionals, Let's just put it that way. SAB
- 42:05Speaker 1: might have retired, yeah, I don't know. He might be
- 42:07Speaker 1: celebrating Christmas. I have no idea. We haven't seen him
- 42:10Speaker 1: for a while. Shout out to SOB Circa. The way
- 42:14Speaker 1: that I would use Circa is like similar to like
- 42:17Speaker 1: some of these sites that I can't mention by name, well,
- 42:19Speaker 1: I don't know, can we mention them by name of
- 42:21Speaker 1: I'm not saying that you should use them. I don't know.
- 42:24Speaker 1: I don't know if we're allowed to. But you'll know
- 42:25Speaker 1: what sites I'm talking about that are like the the
- 42:28Speaker 1: sites that are considered to be really catering towards sharps.
- 42:31Speaker 1: Circa is one of them. Like if you see their
- 42:33Speaker 1: numbers slightly adjusted in one direction, that's kind of an
- 42:39Speaker 1: indicator of where like the sharps are leaning, so you
- 42:41Speaker 1: can kind of use that as a lean game. Above
- 42:44Speaker 1: sports Bowl is Central Michigan in Northwestern Now for these games,
- 42:48Speaker 1: you got to pay attention to the opt outs here.
- 42:51Speaker 1: Of course, it looks like the only opt outs that
- 42:54Speaker 1: we see here are actually on the Central Michigan side.
- 42:56Speaker 1: They are listing Hero though I think that's inaccurate. I
- 42:58Speaker 1: actually think there are a couple of thoughts on both
- 43:00Speaker 1: sides here. Central Michigan has two listed here. But I mean,
- 43:06Speaker 1: for the most part, I think you're gonna see both teams,
- 43:09Speaker 1: I think, being mostly intact here now, I think you
- 43:13Speaker 1: could question Northwestern's motivation though, But I also think the
- 43:16Speaker 1: line dropped because I think there are actually some opt
- 43:19Speaker 1: outs from Northwestern here that this shitty site here covers.
- 43:22Speaker 1: They're not tracking it, So I think that there are
- 43:25Speaker 1: some opt outs that move this line a little bit.
- 43:27Speaker 1: Northwestern was a twelve and a half point favorite. Now
- 43:30Speaker 1: they're ten and a half, fifty eight percent of the
- 43:32Speaker 1: tickets on them, fifty five percent of the cash on
- 43:34Speaker 1: Central Michigan. I do agree with that market read. If
- 43:37Speaker 1: you're gonna play this game, I would take the points
- 43:39Speaker 1: with Central Michigan for a number of reasons. One reason
- 43:43Speaker 1: being that the total is low down to forty three
- 43:47Speaker 1: from forty four and a half, which part of that
- 43:49Speaker 1: I think is because of maybe some opt outs from Northwestern.
- 43:51Speaker 1: But we also see sixty eight percent of the cash
- 43:54Speaker 1: on the over fifty four or sixty eight percent of
- 43:56Speaker 1: tickets excuse me, fifty four percent of the cash on
- 43:59Speaker 1: the under. The money is coming in towards the under.
- 44:01Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the under in this game either.
- 44:04Speaker 1: And if you think it's gonna be a low scoring game.
- 44:05Speaker 1: Of course, it's gonna be way more difficult for Northwestern
- 44:08Speaker 1: to cover a number like this. We're looking at too
- 44:11Speaker 1: bad offenses year Northwestern. I know they're a Big ten team,
- 44:15Speaker 1: but they're better on defense. Their offense is pretty bad.
- 44:18Speaker 1: Central Michigan not a very good offense either. They mostly
- 44:22Speaker 1: rely on their defense. Central Michigan also runs the football
- 44:26Speaker 1: and like inordinate amount of times, even though they've actually
- 44:29Speaker 1: been decent passing the football when they do throw the football,
- 44:33Speaker 1: but they're mostly a rushing attack and that's what they do,
- 44:37Speaker 1: so they slow the game down, and that's kind of
- 44:39Speaker 1: what you want for an underdog. So I would agree
- 44:43Speaker 1: with taking the points with Central Michigan as well. If
- 44:45Speaker 1: you can get anything like eleven to ten and a half,
- 44:47Speaker 1: anything better than that, I think taking the points makes
- 44:50Speaker 1: sense here, not even only just for you know those
- 44:53Speaker 1: x's and o's reasons. By the way, Central Michigan they
- 44:56Speaker 1: actually play two quarterbacks, but it's not one of those
- 44:59Speaker 1: situations where it's like they don't know who their quarterback is.
- 45:03Speaker 1: It's because they're more they play like a service academy
- 45:06Speaker 1: almost where they have they have a throwing quarterback and
- 45:09Speaker 1: a rushing quarterback, and they're one of the quarterbacks has
- 45:13Speaker 1: been injured for a while and he's coming back. I
- 45:15Speaker 1: think the throwing quarterback, I think it has been injured for
- 45:19Speaker 1: multiple weeks. Down he's supposed to be back in this game.
- 45:21Speaker 1: Flores I think is his name. So Central Michigan will
- 45:25Speaker 1: be more of a dual threat offense again with him
- 45:28Speaker 1: back in the mix here, assuming that he is playing,
- 45:31Speaker 1: So that will be good for Central Michigan. I don't
- 45:35Speaker 1: think that's like a reverse injured player spot or anything
- 45:37Speaker 1: like that, because he's a guy that only plays like
- 45:41Speaker 1: probably about I would say seventeen percent of their snaps.
- 45:46Speaker 1: But when he does go out there, it gives them
- 45:47Speaker 1: that added dimension where they can actually throw the football
- 45:50Speaker 1: a little bit. So Northwestern's gonna have to prepare for
- 45:53Speaker 1: multiple different styles from Central Michigan. That's kind of how
- 45:56Speaker 1: Central Michigan was able to do the damage that they
- 45:59Speaker 1: did this They're not a very good team. Again, like
- 46:02Speaker 1: they mostly focus on running the football, and I think
- 46:05Speaker 1: they do incorporate some triple options stuff as well with
- 46:08Speaker 1: their primary quarterback. They're more like a service academy. But again,
- 46:11Speaker 1: it's hard to prepare for that when you don't see
- 46:13Speaker 1: that all the time, even though yes, Northwestern does have
- 46:16Speaker 1: a good defense, but all that being thrown into the mix, again,
- 46:19Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a low scoring, ugly
- 46:22Speaker 1: game here. So again I do agree under and Central
- 46:26Speaker 1: Michigan plus the points in this one. And the other
- 46:28Speaker 1: thing is I think Central Michigan will be motivated because
- 46:31Speaker 1: they don't make that many bowls. They don't have a
- 46:33Speaker 1: good bowl history as a program. Last thing they were
- 46:36Speaker 1: in a bowl I think was back in twenty twenty one.
- 46:38Speaker 1: They won it in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
- 46:41Speaker 1: against Washington State. But I don't believe that they've won
- 46:43Speaker 1: a bowl since then. I think maybe they haven't even
- 46:45Speaker 1: been in a bowl since then. So I think it
- 46:47Speaker 1: will be a big deal for Central Michigan to be
- 46:50Speaker 1: in a bowl like this, playing against one of the
- 46:52Speaker 1: big boys, against a Big ten team, So I think
- 46:55Speaker 1: they will be motivated for this. So definitely reasons Central
- 46:59Speaker 1: Michigan should show up here for Northwestern, Like, do you
- 47:03Speaker 1: really get excited for playing a MAC team here? I
- 47:06Speaker 1: don't know, because Northwestern they actually weren't in a bowl.
- 47:09Speaker 1: I believe they were not in a bowl last year either,
- 47:11Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, let me see either that or
- 47:14Speaker 1: they lost. Let me sing a Northwestern only city gets
- 47:17Speaker 1: six and six this year, by the way, But yeah,
- 47:19Speaker 1: they missed out on the bowl season last year, so
- 47:21Speaker 1: they've had a little bit of turmoil. They won the
- 47:23Speaker 1: Vegas Bowl the year before that, so you know, they
- 47:27Speaker 1: missed last year's bowl season. Maybe they'll be excited to
- 47:30Speaker 1: be here, but they didn't look very excited after they
- 47:32Speaker 1: became Bowl eligible. They lost to Illinois, although I guess
- 47:36Speaker 1: you know, they only lost by seven. I don't know.
- 47:38Speaker 1: It was an ugly low scoring game though, but that
- 47:41Speaker 1: was a big rivalry game for them, so I don't know.
- 47:43Speaker 1: I mean, you could see that kind of either way,
- 47:45Speaker 1: Like did Northwestern really get up for that game? I
- 47:48Speaker 1: don't know, Well they really get up for this game though,
- 47:50Speaker 1: playing against a MAC team, I don't know. I don't
- 47:53Speaker 1: really see Northwestern being that excited about it. The location
- 47:57Speaker 1: probably does favor Central Michigan a little bit because it's
- 48:00Speaker 1: in Detroit, although Chicago is not that far away either,
- 48:04Speaker 1: which is basically where Northwestern is. So both teams probably
- 48:08Speaker 1: gonna have their fan bases show up, but Central Michigan's
- 48:10Speaker 1: might be a little bit more excited for it, So
- 48:13Speaker 1: I would say Central Michigan again is the lean in
- 48:15Speaker 1: that game. How do you become an odds maker at
- 48:19Speaker 1: a casino. I have not really looked into that. I
- 48:23Speaker 1: don't want to do that though. I don't want to
- 48:25Speaker 1: be on the other side of the counter. I don't
- 48:27Speaker 1: I do not want to be one of those guys.
- 48:29Speaker 1: I just can't do it because then you're not allowed
- 48:31Speaker 1: to bet anymore. So no, I'm not gonna do that.
- 48:34Speaker 1: Next up is gonna be my best bet in the bowls.
- 48:37Speaker 1: Let's do it. It's gonna be in this whatever the
- 48:41Speaker 1: hell of this bowl is in Phoenix. I forget what
- 48:44Speaker 1: the what is the rate Bowl? Yeah, we're gonna go
- 48:48Speaker 1: with New Mexico. I know we've lost a little bit
- 48:50Speaker 1: of value on this. It did come out at three,
- 48:52Speaker 1: but there have been some opt outs on the Minnesota
- 48:55Speaker 1: side that have dropped this thing to one and a half.
- 48:57Speaker 1: I still think you're getting New Mexico is a small dog.
- 48:59Speaker 1: I think is the right look here, if you're playing
- 49:02Speaker 1: them either way, you're basically kind of saying they're gonna
- 49:04Speaker 1: win the game. We're gonna do this. New Mexico has
- 49:07Speaker 1: fifty one percent of the tickets and fifty eight percent
- 49:09Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I'm gonna agree with this.
- 49:11Speaker 1: I mean this pretty much all just has to do
- 49:13Speaker 1: with who's the motivated team gonna be in this game.
- 49:16Speaker 1: And the location I think helps New Mexico as well.
- 49:20Speaker 1: But yes, we've had opt outs on the Minnesota side.
- 49:22Speaker 1: But again, when you have opt outs like this, yes
- 49:24Speaker 1: it does affect the line, but I don't think the
- 49:27Speaker 1: line has really completely overreacted to it, like you got
- 49:31Speaker 1: to gauge, like, well, these opt outs mean that the
- 49:33Speaker 1: team might not be showing up in this game, and
- 49:35Speaker 1: I think that's what you're getting out of Minnesota in
- 49:37Speaker 1: this game, even though the one thing that Minnesota is
- 49:40Speaker 1: going for them is they've actually won like seven or
- 49:43Speaker 1: eight bowls in a row. Like I know I talked
- 49:46Speaker 1: about Ohio had that streak of like six seven bowl
- 49:49Speaker 1: wins in a row. I think Ohio has done that
- 49:52Speaker 1: without missing a bowl season. I think because Minnesota has
- 49:55Speaker 1: won eight bowls in a row, but they they've missed
- 49:58Speaker 1: out on the bowl season a couple of the years
- 50:00Speaker 1: in the middle there. But yes, Minnesota does actually tend
- 50:03Speaker 1: to show up and play well in their bowl games.
- 50:05Speaker 1: But in this game, I just don't see it. Man,
- 50:08Speaker 1: I just don't see how they're gonna how they're gonna
- 50:10Speaker 1: be that excited to play New Mexico. Now, this used
- 50:14Speaker 1: to be the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, by the way, I
- 50:17Speaker 1: like to make fun of the names here. Now it's
- 50:18Speaker 1: just the Rate Bowl. I don't know if Guaranteed Rate
- 50:21Speaker 1: change their name to just Rate. I don't even know
- 50:23Speaker 1: who they are, but very weird name for a bowl.
- 50:26Speaker 1: But it's in Phoenix, at a Chase Field where the
- 50:28Speaker 1: Diamondbacks play. I guess so I think the location favors
- 50:31Speaker 1: New Mexico because they're closer. So I think their crowd
- 50:34Speaker 1: will show up for this. They're used to playing in
- 50:36Speaker 1: this area of the country. Minnesota really isn't. Maybe Minnesota
- 50:40Speaker 1: gets a little bit distracted by being in Phoenix a lot.
- 50:44Speaker 1: I don't even know what there is to do in Phoenix.
- 50:46Speaker 1: For New Mexico. I think they're gonna be excited, though, man.
- 50:49Speaker 1: I New Mexico finished the season real strong, winning a
- 50:52Speaker 1: bunch of games in a row, six games in a
- 50:54Speaker 1: row down the stretch. You might say, well, you know,
- 50:57Speaker 1: having all this time off is gonna disrupt their momentum.
- 51:00Speaker 1: And while I do tend to look at things that way,
- 51:03Speaker 1: sometimes bowls are a little bit different, man, And sometimes
- 51:05Speaker 1: it is good to be on a team that finished
- 51:07Speaker 1: strong because that tells you that they are probably gonna
- 51:10Speaker 1: be excited to be here. Now. New Mexico almost got
- 51:13Speaker 1: into the Mountain West Championship, and the only reason they
- 51:15Speaker 1: didn't was because they do some computer bullshit to figure
- 51:20Speaker 1: out who makes the the championship, and of course it
- 51:23Speaker 1: was BOIS and UNLV. And while I don't really disagree
- 51:27Speaker 1: that BOIS and unl V both better than San Diego
- 51:30Speaker 1: State and New Mexico, I don't think New Mexico is
- 51:32Speaker 1: going to be that like disappointed by that, because they
- 51:37Speaker 1: didn't have high expectations at all coming into this year.
- 51:39Speaker 1: New Mexico was in kind of a rebuilding season and
- 51:42Speaker 1: they had a really good season nine to three. I know,
- 51:45Speaker 1: they faced a week schedule, but they did face Michigan
- 51:48Speaker 1: and they played pretty well at Michigan. Earlier in the season,
- 51:51Speaker 1: they crushed Ucla. I know, Ucla wasn't that good, but
- 51:55Speaker 1: still a Big ten team on the road, you know,
- 51:58Speaker 1: not a bad game for them all there. And then yeah,
- 52:02Speaker 1: I know they played the Mountain West, not a great conference,
- 52:04Speaker 1: but they did play Boise, they did play Utah State,
- 52:08Speaker 1: they did play UNLV, and they beat Utah State and
- 52:10Speaker 1: UNLV and San Diego State, and those were some of
- 52:13Speaker 1: the better teams. So they played like all the better
- 52:15Speaker 1: teams in the conference pretty much. So yes, obviously they're
- 52:19Speaker 1: not as battle tests as Minnesota, but I don't think
- 52:21Speaker 1: it's gonna matter that much. I think they'll be excited
- 52:23Speaker 1: because New Mexico again, there wasn't much expected out of
- 52:26Speaker 1: them this year, and they haven't made a bowl for
- 52:29Speaker 1: a long long time. The last time they were in
- 52:32Speaker 1: a bowl I believe was like almost ten years ago. Yeah,
- 52:36Speaker 1: well the last time they won a bowl was the
- 52:37Speaker 1: New Mexico Bowl, so in the same area. They were
- 52:41Speaker 1: in their home state, so they actually won a bowl
- 52:43Speaker 1: in their own state in New Mexico. So a lot
- 52:45Speaker 1: of times teams won't be excited if they're kind of
- 52:47Speaker 1: not going to like a location. But I think for
- 52:50Speaker 1: New Mexico, because they're just not in bowls very often,
- 52:52Speaker 1: they got excited for that, and I think that might
- 52:55Speaker 1: have been the last time they were even in a bowl,
- 52:57Speaker 1: So they haven't been in a Bowl for almost a
- 52:59Speaker 1: decad So I think how could they not be excited
- 53:02Speaker 1: about this, you know what I mean, having not been
- 53:05Speaker 1: to a Bowl for that long. So I like that
- 53:07Speaker 1: aspect of this. And again from Minnesota, I just I
- 53:10Speaker 1: just don't know what you're gonna get out of Minnesota. Yeah,
- 53:12Speaker 1: they played well in their final game against Wisconsin. Wisconsin
- 53:15Speaker 1: had a bad season. Minnesota, I mean, how do you
- 53:19Speaker 1: get excited about going to Phoenix and playing against New Mexico.
- 53:23Speaker 1: I mean really, I mean, I just don't really see it. Man.
- 53:26Speaker 1: I know, I know Minnesota does tend to step it
- 53:28Speaker 1: up for these games. They're pretty well coached. But we're
- 53:32Speaker 1: in a new era now, man, We're in the era
- 53:34Speaker 1: of the transfer portal now and Minnesota has some guys transferring.
- 53:38Speaker 1: So I don't like that. Yes, again, they did face
- 53:41Speaker 1: a more difficult schedule. Uh, they did play Ohio State
- 53:44Speaker 1: and Nebraska. I got a decent win there. I think
- 53:47Speaker 1: got blown out by Iowa, by Oregon and by Ohio State.
- 53:51Speaker 1: So you know, whatever out of conference schedule is actually
- 53:54Speaker 1: really weak. And for Minnesota. Yeah, we're looking at looking
- 53:58Speaker 1: at the opt outs here. They do opt outs. Actually,
- 54:01Speaker 1: this doesn't even tell the whole tale of it. Their
- 54:04Speaker 1: number two running back is gone, he's hitting the transfer portal.
- 54:08Speaker 1: Their top three wide receivers, I believe we're all hitting
- 54:10Speaker 1: the transfer portal. So they are gonna be decimated at
- 54:14Speaker 1: wide receivers. So they're not gonna really be able to
- 54:16Speaker 1: throw the ball very much in this game, I wouldn't imagine.
- 54:19Speaker 1: So Minnesota's offense is definitely taking a hit with the
- 54:22Speaker 1: transfer situation here, so that's not good for them. Whereas
- 54:26Speaker 1: New Mexico, they do not have many opt outs in
- 54:28Speaker 1: this game. And they're gonna show up and play in
- 54:31Speaker 1: this Bowl game because it's been so long. I think
- 54:33Speaker 1: their fans will show up. They don't have to travel
- 54:35Speaker 1: that far to get to Phoenix, Minnesota. Like, are their
- 54:38Speaker 1: fans really gonna be that excited to travel all the
- 54:40Speaker 1: way down? I mean, I guess because it's warm weather,
- 54:43Speaker 1: maybe it's a reason to get out of Minnesota. But still,
- 54:47Speaker 1: I just don't really see them being excited about this
- 54:50Speaker 1: Bowl draw Man, So we're gonna take New Mexico in
- 54:54Speaker 1: this one. I think New Mexico is gonna be excited.
- 54:56Speaker 1: They're one of the teams with the longest Bowl drought
- 54:59Speaker 1: out of all the teams in the bowl season here,
- 55:02Speaker 1: So that is a motivator man for a program that
- 55:05Speaker 1: has that long of a drought. Even though the Bulls
- 55:07Speaker 1: don't mean as much now, they still mean something to
- 55:09Speaker 1: these smaller programs. So we are gonna go with New
- 55:12Speaker 1: Mexico in that game, getting them at the small dog
- 55:17Speaker 1: price and the public even though New Mexico has the
- 55:20Speaker 1: better record, they're still gonna have a tendency to be
- 55:22Speaker 1: slightly I think leaning towards Minnesota just because everybody knows
- 55:26Speaker 1: they're the better team. They're in the better conference, so
- 55:29Speaker 1: you know, that's just the way that it is. And
- 55:31Speaker 1: then the final bowl, we have the Serve Pro First
- 55:34Speaker 1: Responder Bowl, which I assume Serve Pro has something to
- 55:38Speaker 1: do with like EMTs or something, the first responders. This
- 55:42Speaker 1: game is in Dallas, Texas. It is Florida International and UTSA.
- 55:46Speaker 1: This is at eight PM. That game I just talked
- 55:48Speaker 1: about was at four point thirty. All of these games
- 55:51Speaker 1: on ESPN. The Bulls get the They get all the
- 55:55Speaker 1: attention today, even though these Bulls might not necessarily be
- 55:58Speaker 1: good now Florida National, my first read on this was
- 56:02Speaker 1: they're going to be super excited to be in a bowl,
- 56:04Speaker 1: because this is a team, a program that has not
- 56:07Speaker 1: been to a bowl for quite a while. I think
- 56:10Speaker 1: they were in the Chamellon Bowl in twenty nineteen and
- 56:13Speaker 1: they lost. Me. When's last bowl that they actually won.
- 56:18Speaker 1: I'm trying to see. I went through this earlier today,
- 56:20Speaker 1: but I already forget I should have. I should have
- 56:22Speaker 1: just written it down, taken notes. But they that was
- 56:25Speaker 1: the last thing they were in a ball? Was that
- 56:27Speaker 1: one that I just mentioned in twenty eighteen was the
- 56:30Speaker 1: last one they won in the Bahamas Bowl. So they
- 56:33Speaker 1: haven't won a bull since twenty eighteen. They haven't been
- 56:35Speaker 1: in a ball since twenty nineteen. So my initial read
- 56:40Speaker 1: was he got in the Florida International, is going to
- 56:41Speaker 1: be excited to be back in a bowl, right And
- 56:44Speaker 1: for UTSA, they're in bowls like every year recently, so
- 56:47Speaker 1: I don't know how excited they're really going to be,
- 56:50Speaker 1: but there are you know, there are some issues here
- 56:54Speaker 1: with wanting to take fu even though I probably still
- 56:56Speaker 1: lean that way slightly at UTSA. I think they were
- 57:01Speaker 1: a little bit underrated this season. They finished six and six,
- 57:04Speaker 1: but I think they're a little bit of a better
- 57:05Speaker 1: team than that. Although they are much better at home,
- 57:07Speaker 1: but they are getting to play in Texas. But then
- 57:10Speaker 1: that could go both ways, like does that mean, well,
- 57:12Speaker 1: their crowd's gonna show up, they're gonna be excited about it.
- 57:15Speaker 1: They are still going to a location because UTSA is
- 57:18Speaker 1: in San Antonio and they're going up to Dallas, so
- 57:20Speaker 1: maybe they still consider it to be like a reward,
- 57:23Speaker 1: a destination, bawl whatever. But UTSA they're also gonna handle
- 57:27Speaker 1: all this time off better because UTSA runs the football.
- 57:30Speaker 1: They're really really good rushing attack and those usually tend
- 57:34Speaker 1: to work out pretty well in bowl games. So also
- 57:38Speaker 1: something to look at with Central Michigan obviously, But yeah,
- 57:41Speaker 1: that makes me hesitate a little bit with fading UTSA here.
- 57:46Speaker 1: But UTSA they've been in bowls like many many years
- 57:50Speaker 1: in a row at this point, and they seem to
- 57:52Speaker 1: be in bowls every year almost now, so I think
- 57:54Speaker 1: they will be less excited about this than FIU will be.
- 57:57Speaker 1: Even though yeah, UTSA might have a benefit to maybe
- 58:00Speaker 1: having a little bit of a home ish crowd there.
- 58:02Speaker 1: It's still not really that close to San Antonio though,
- 58:05Speaker 1: But my problem with it is the opt out situation.
- 58:08Speaker 1: There are opt outs on both teams, including one of
- 58:11Speaker 1: the best names out there, mister Clark, cornerback for FIU,
- 58:15Speaker 1: is hitting the transfer portal. Now this surprised me. So
- 58:19Speaker 1: we have opt outs on both sides. Both teams have
- 58:22Speaker 1: a bunch of guys seeing the transfer portal. This is
- 58:24Speaker 1: not even the full extent of it. Both teams are
- 58:27Speaker 1: losing a significant amount of their defense to the transfer portal,
- 58:30Speaker 1: which surprised me because I thought FIU their guys would
- 58:33Speaker 1: show up and play in this game. But that's just
- 58:36Speaker 1: not the case. So both defenses are losing a lot
- 58:40Speaker 1: of guys to the opt outs. The offenses are actually
- 58:42Speaker 1: mostly intact for this game, including whichever McCown son is
- 58:47Speaker 1: on UTSA as their quarterback there. But mostly it's the
- 58:52Speaker 1: defenses that are being affected here. So you probably kind
- 58:56Speaker 1: of know what I'm gonna say about this game in
- 58:58Speaker 1: a second here. Of the total is very high, let's
- 59:01Speaker 1: just say that. So I do worry because I expected
- 59:04Speaker 1: FIU to have fewer opt outs and actually show up
- 59:06Speaker 1: in this game. But now it's looking like the defenses
- 59:10Speaker 1: are not gonna be showing up in this game, which
- 59:12Speaker 1: does mean I think this is gonna be a track
- 59:14Speaker 1: meet of a game. It's gonna be probably in good
- 59:16Speaker 1: weather in Dallas, I would imagine. Now the line did
- 59:20Speaker 1: tank on Texas San Antonio though, down from nine and
- 59:22Speaker 1: a half to five, So there was a huge line
- 59:25Speaker 1: move against them and towards Florida International. And it looks
- 59:29Speaker 1: like there is a little bit of take back on
- 59:31Speaker 1: the UTSA side. Fifty two tickets on FU, fifty four
- 59:34Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on UTSA. But I mean,
- 59:37Speaker 1: I don't think the public is gonna really have that
- 59:39Speaker 1: much of a feel for this game. FIU getting points
- 59:43Speaker 1: is the team with the better record, maybe they'll be
- 59:44Speaker 1: looking that way, But UTSA has had you know, they've
- 59:48Speaker 1: been around in the bowls recently, so I don't know
- 59:50Speaker 1: if that's gonna if the public knows that or not,
- 59:52Speaker 1: I don't know. But my read on the on the
- 59:56Speaker 1: on the side is still FIU. I think they are
- 59:59Speaker 1: still gonna be the more motive team here, just because
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: the program hasn't been to a bowl in so long.
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: So I would still lean to taking the points here,
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: although you're getting fewer of them. Like I think that
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: initial line move was, like I agree with the way
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: that it moved. Let's just say that, but now I'm
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: worried about all the opt outs on both sides, although
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: Utsa's opt outs were more significant obviously, which is why
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: the line dropped like that. Now, if I was gonna
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: play this game, I would probably play the over, though
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: eighty five percent of tickets in ninety percent of the
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: cash on the over, it's up to sixty. But you know,
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: totals are high for a reason. I know UTSA likes
- 1:00:33Speaker 1: to run the football, but they can still throw the
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: ball a little bit as well, and against a weak defense,
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: you know, the rushing attack can really really put up
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: some huge chunks in college football. So rushing attacks can
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: actually still put a lot of points on the board,
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: especially if they're gonna be winning the game as a favorite,
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: they're gonna be running the football, they could still put
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: more points on the board. I think over makes a
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: lot of sense, and mostly again because these these defenses
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: are just decimated by all the try answer is going
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: on here, so over makes sense. I don't think the
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: line is really even adjusted even enough for what's going
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: on with those defenses. So that's the way I look
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: at that game, and I think that's it. Man. I
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: would slightly still lean towards taking the points with that
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: by you as well. But and then again I lean
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: towards taking the points with Sindram Michigan and the under
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: in the sports Bawl. But my play is actually on
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: New Mexico. On the other one, I don't really have
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: a read on the total in that game. And that's
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: gonna do it, man. I finished the Chappelle special. The
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: ending was really good. There were definitely some it was funny.
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: Not his best special, not his worst. I mean, there
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: were some points where obviously he's just wrong about like
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: some of his gauge on politics. He's just way off.
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: I think he's too he's somewhat too entrenched in the
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: political sphere, although I mean I appreciate that he's not
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: really he's not like fully entrenched on one side or
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: the other. And he does know he does have a
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: tendency to bash, you know, some of the uh like
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: bash some of those power sources. Especially with the way
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: that he ended, it was quite good. I will say that. Yeah,
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: I thought it was okay. In general. That's gonna do it, man.
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: Once again my place today we got two NBA plays.
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: We're on the Hornets plus the points Blazers plus the
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: points fading the market reading both for now at least,
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: and then we're gonna be on the the rate bowl.
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: We're gonna be on New Mexico and hope they get
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: the job none for us to get the outright win,
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: fading that streak that Minnesota is going on. But again,
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: the transfer portal situation has only been a thing for
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: like two years now, so it's a different animal to
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: try to handicap. And I'm being really selective with these bowls.
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: So and this is one of the ones that jumped
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: jumped out at me right away with at least one
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: of the teams, I would think, being really really excited
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: to actually be here. That's New Mexico. So that's what
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: we're gonna go with New Mexico. And that's gonna do it.
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: Thank you, Charles, Thanks for hanging out everybody. Oh yeah, yeah,
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: the AIDS thing, Yeah, Chappelle, he started getting into that, yeah,
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: that AIDS thing. He went in the opposite direction with it,
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: really though, Like he basically wound up, like his punchline
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: basically wound up saying that that doctor was still a quack.
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: But I'm really not so sure. I think that doctor
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: might have been on the verge of uncovering something that
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: the power, the people in power don't want you to
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: know about AIDS, which I think is more that it
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: was the drugs that were actually killing people and not
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: the AIDS itself, and that Fauci was pretty much behind
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: all of and I think maybe that holistic doctor was
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: uncovering something that the people in power didn't want to
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: get out there. I don't want to get this channel nuked,
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: but I think his death was pretty questionable. So Patrise O'Neill,
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: what's up, man? Who's lying? What? I don't know what
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: you're talking about, man, Patris O'Neil one of the best,
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: one of the best comedians of all time. Though I
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: don't know if I could say that my channel, but
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Thanks everybody for
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: hanging out. Learn the tone on Twitter. Got subscriptions over
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: there now, thank you. Jeffering. Got to learn to tone
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: on Instagram as well. I gotta put these things out
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: on Instagram shortly. What else we got we got to
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: we'll obviously like subscribe, you know, give me comments on
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: the channel here. We've got to boost this thing. Man,
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: We're not even at five hundred. Yet we should be
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: over a thousand by now. We've got to get this
- 1:04:25Speaker 1: thing going. Uh, people don't like my raging autism. I
- 1:04:29Speaker 1: have no idea. Want to get this channel built up more,
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: get it monetized, you know that would be the goal here.
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: Let's get this stuff done. Yes, thank you, Sir, Pinsey, Jeffrey,
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: everybody here, Garrett, Charles Patrias, O'Neil's fat, obese ghost whatever,
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: matro sexual. I don't know if I'm getting everybody, but
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: all you guys, I appreciate it. Thanks for hanging out everybody. Uh,
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: did I hit everybody? I think I did. If I
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: forgot anybody, I apologize, But thank you guys. Sab I
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: hope you're all right. We got covered in you. Because
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube, you can check that out
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: out as well. This show is on audio, so give
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: me a good review over there as well, and listen
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: on Apple and Spotify. The Loser Cast, my comedy panel podcast,
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: is still out there. You can go vote for the
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: Call of Duty guy in the latest poll to get
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: my second straight Loser winner because I won with Rob
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: Ryan or the previous week, so hell yeah, but go
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: check that out. It's a fun time. We had veto
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: from my I apologize and forget the name of his show.
- 1:05:29Speaker 1: He's a funny dude. I like to have him having
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: him on this week. It was a fun show. So
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: there is that, and then the Giants podcast g spot.
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with it, man, I
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: gotta talk to Ben again, see what's going on with that.
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: And I think that is it. Oh, Patreon dot com,
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: sash will learn to toe and you get bonus stuff. Charles,
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: I did I did do your Christmas requests. That's been
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: up for a couple of days on Twitter. I released
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: it on Christmas Eve on Twitter and YouTube YouTube. I
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: gotta get the other ones I did on late christ
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: even they gotta put up two more. So I gotta
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: get that done on YouTube and whatever they're up on Twitter, Yes, sir,
- 1:06:07Speaker 1: so that's gonna do it. Hell yeah, so paedroon dot com.
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: You get some bonus stuff there as well, Bonus Spotify,
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: Yuke Feed and requests. And yes, I am wearing my
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: non alcoholic Athletic Brewing Camo hoodie today. Man, I gotta
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: say it's I don't know, maybe it's not quite soft enough.
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: The hoodie, but I definitely like their other product Man
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: as a sober man who still likes the craft that
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: goes into it. This is the way that you can enjoy.
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: You can do both at once. Why not. Sometimes you
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: can do things in life. So that's gonna do it.
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow. There's not gonna be a show
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: tonight because there's literally one Division one NBA our college
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: basketball game, I mean tomorrow's, so I'll talk about it
- 1:06:51Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. Tomorrow is a huge Bowl day though, like
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: it's it's the biggest bowl day of the year. They're
- 1:06:58Speaker 1: just a shit ton of bowls on Tomorrow, and then
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: we got the build up to the playoff game playoffs
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: being on you know, New Year's and whatever. So and
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: I'm gonna have at least one play i think in
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: the playoffs, and I will have at least a couple
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: more Bowl plays probably as well, so in the non
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: playoff games. So we'll look forward to that as well.
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. NFL show will still
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: be tomorrow at night as well, so you can check
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: that out as Tomorrow morning is gonna be a big
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: show actually, because think there is a huge NHL slate tomorrow,
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: the NHL comes back into play, so oh boy, it's
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: gonna be one of those Saturday mornings man. But at
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: least at least college basketball is a very very light
- 1:07:39Speaker 1: slate tomorrow. That's gonna do it. Yeah, I appreciate it, guys.
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again. Yeah, NFL is just a
- 1:07:46Speaker 1: real I hate the board. I really really hate it
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: this week, man, so we'll see what we could do.
- 1:07:52Speaker 1: My goal is to give out winners though in the
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: NFL into a win my you know, getting make sure
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: that I stay in the money in my money contests
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: that I'm in and improve my standing. Still there, so
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: one and zero to start this week with the Chiefs
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: plus the points, so hopefully we can continue with that.
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Peace for now, guys,