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Episode 118 - 9/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 118 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:23
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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  Happy Thirsty Thursday the long wait wasn't that long of a wait,
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  but Monday to Thursday waiting for our next football game to
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  sweat. Guess what the wait is over.
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  We have Thursday Night Football here tonight guys, not only NFL
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  Thursday Night Football Buffalo Miami, which I do have a bet
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  officially in terms of the side as well as two player props here
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  that I'll be sweating with some great rhythm edges here based
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  upon what rhythm is predicting versus what the betting market
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  is offering. But not only just NFL Thursday
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  Night Football, we got some college Thursday Night Football
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  as well, including a play that is so up my alley I can't even
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  begin to describe it to you. A massive, massive sharp reverse
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  line move dog to fave. So hit on a college football
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  best bet here for tonight. So overall, 4 pack all football,
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  pro and college. You can't ask for a better
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  Thursday night than that guys. But before we break it down, our
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  plays for tonight real quick yesterday winning day 2 and 1 +
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  0.16 units. Had a couple good wins with the
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  Tigers who continue to roll for us in cash tickets and also the
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  Diamondbacks. Shout out to the Diamondbacks
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  because they are now sitting at 82 wins.
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  So if you're like me and holding that over 83 1/2 win total, only
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  need two more wins to catch that baby.
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  So we're closing in on a win total winner hopefully only
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  loser was the Atlanta Braves. Pathetic.
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  What do you lose 5 to one against against the Washington
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  Nationals? That was a bit disappointing,
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  but either way, a winning night will take it every time. 2:00
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  and 1:00 plus 0.16 units. So looking toward tonight, as
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  you mentioned, all football, pro college, let's start with the
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  pro side big match up here tonight.
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  Obviously Thursday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills
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  going to travel to Miami to face the Miami Dolphins.
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  So a little background here, then I'll give you what I've
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  seen across the market. Then I'll give you my best bet
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  along with couple player props if you'd like to sweat with me.
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  So coming to this one, we have two teams in the AFC East, both
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  undefeated. Both One and O both won their
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  season openers. The Bills took down the
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  Cardinals 34 to 28. However, they did not cover as a
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  6 1/2 point dog or sorry, 6 1/2 point favorite.
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  Meanwhile, the Dolphins similarly also one and O took
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  down the Jaguars 20 to 17, but did not cover as a 3 1/2 point
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  home favorite. So both teams won, both teams
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  failed to cover. So what are we seeing here
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  across the market for this line here?
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  Well, I've been kind of hinting at this, teasing about this
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  throughout the week. And it's very similar if you
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  remember to kind of the breakdown in the approach, what
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  we saw in the betting market for the season opener exactly a week
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  ago. Remember, we got a little lucky
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  because Isaiah Likely's toe was out of bounds, which I think who
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  was it? Was it Patrick Holmes or
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  somebody said he should wear white shoes next time instead of
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  black. That way he'd kind of blend into
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  the the out the out of bounds line.
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  Anyway, very similar in terms of movement toward the home
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  favorite. So spoiler alert, I'm going to
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  go with Miami. I'm going to go Miami on the
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  money line. I got them at -135.
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  Now they're on -140. But here's the breakdown #1
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  We've seen this line move toward Miami.
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  The Miami Dolphins open this game around a 1 1/2 point home
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  favorite. Some books even as even open as
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  low as -1 and we've seen all movement on the Miami side.
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  Miami got bet up -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2.
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  And what's notable to me is that this isn't just a huge public
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  play on Miami. Like the public is kind of split
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  here. They see Buffalo and Miami both
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  one and O undefeated teams. They know Miami's at home, which
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  of course you give a couple points here to home field
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  advantage. Not quite.
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  The three points we used to always see home field nowadays
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  is more like 1 1/2 or two post COVID.
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  But do you take Miami laying a short spread at home?
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  Do you take Buffalo and Josh Allen as a dog?
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  Public doesn't know what to do. But here's one thing that I
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  always look at in the betting market when I'm comparing the
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  bet splits the percentage of bets and dollars to where the
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  line is moved. If it's all just bets and
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  dollars on Team A and the line goes to team A, that's not
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  telling you much. Lopsided betting Odds makers
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  adjusted the line toward the popular side to entice betting
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  to make it #1 a more expensive price to take the popular side,
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  but also to move the line to entice betting on the dog so
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  they can mitigate their risk or liability.
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  However, when you're about 5050 and bets are relatively even,
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  which is the case here, currently you're only getting
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  55% of spread bets on Miami, then really 55% a line shouldn't
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  move all the way -1 1/2 to -2 1/2.
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  And not only has it moved toward Miami, but a lot of books are
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  juiced up -2 1/2 -, 115, like it may even go to three.
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  So again, very similar movement here on Miami that we saw last
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  week on Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and of course,
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  Kansas City. But digging into the kind of
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  explainer here, not just so that you're looking at this game, but
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  just anytime the situation arises, 55% bets shouldn't move
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  a number, shouldn't move a line a full point.
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  Maybe the juice gets jacked up a little bit, maybe you move 1/2
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  point. But that tells me that
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  basically, even though the public is relatively split, all
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  the bigger, sharper, respected money is on Miami causing this
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  line to move in their favor. Now Miami only getting 55% of
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  spread bats, but they are getting a little more than 60%
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  of spread dollars. So we're starting to build a
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  case here. Line move toward Miami, kind of
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  a 5050 line move. We do have some low bets, higher
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  dollars, which I'm always looking for in terms of the bet
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  splits. But now to put the cherry on
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  top, a lot of historical edges betting system matches on Miami
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  tonight. So first one here, Thursday
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  Night Football. Since 2006 when Thursday Night
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  Football started, home favorites have gone 91 and 75 against the
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  spread 55 percent, 7% ROI. So let's think about this
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  Thursday night. Why do the home favorites tend
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  to do well? Well, big reason for that is the
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  short week. It's just difficult for a road
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  dog on a short week to have to travel, come into a hostile
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  environment and went on the road or cover on the road.
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  Now for those of you who don't want to lay a 2 1/2 because
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  again, line open one 1 1/2. Maybe it's a very tight game.
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  Maybe Miami only wins. Like wouldn't you hate it to lay
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  a 2 1/2 with Miami? Yes, you're saving the juice -2
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  1/2 -, 115. But wouldn't you hate it if you
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  laid a 2 1/2 and Miami won by one or two and you lose your 2
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  1/2? That's something that happened
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  to me long time ago and I always made the guarantee in my head
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  saying hey short favorites, I money line short favorites.
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  Now if Miami rolls and wins by three or more, tip the cap to
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  anyone who wants spread because you're getting a bigger payout
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  based on the -115 juice. But anytime you you lose a bet
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  when you lay a 2 1/2 and they win by one or two, that's about
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  I can't sleep at night. You know, last time that
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  happened to me. So anyway, I money line short
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  favorites. Yes, I'm paying a little more
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  juice. I got Miami -135 again, there's
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  high as -140 -, 145. So as always, shop around for
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  the best number. But to me, I'm willing to pay a
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  little more juice for the added safety and security and also
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  making my sweat much more enjoyable knowing that I just
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  have to win the game versus cover the number.
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  But with that being said, with the money line, which is my bet
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  tonight, there's no football home favorites straight up.
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  We just mentioned that since 2006, Thursday Night Football
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  home favorites are 55% against the spread.
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  That's really good. Remember, the magic number is
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  52.38%. So you're you're doing pretty
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  good on the spread, but on the home favorites, on the money
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  line, they're 123 and 4573% straight up with a 4% ROI.
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  So basically these Thursday football home favorites are
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  winning three out of four Times. Now to take it another step
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  further on the money line, when 2 undefeated teams face off in
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  Week 2, so both teams won their opener, the home favorite in
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  that next game is 39 and 1178% with a 19% ROI since 2006.
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  So we've built a pretty good case here.
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  And again, when I'm looking at betting any kind of game, I'm
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  kind of trying to marry the present with the past.
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  So the present is what's the betting market telling us today?
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  OK, line move to Miami. Low bets, higher dollars bet
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  split 5050 line move. Now I can incorporate history.
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  Great philosopher once said if you don't know your history,
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  you're doomed to repeat it. Or some variation of that, even
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  though people kind of argue over who actually said that.
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  But anyway, we're marrying the past with a Thursday Night
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  Football home favorite. 2 undefeated teams take the home
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  favorite, all matching here with Miami.
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  So my bet tonight guys is the Dolphins to win this game on the
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  money line. Again, I got -135 if you want to
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  sweat it with me, you might be able to find that probably
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  closer to -140 Now I do lean under here.
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  We have seen this total drop 51 to 48 and a half. 48 1/2 was
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  this morning's line. I'm seeing maybe some books go
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  to 48. So we are seeing game day
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  movement not only in favor of Miami, but on the under here.
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  This is notable because the public's on the over 73% of of
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  total bets on the over, yet the line fell.
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  So that's a pretty good reverse line move.
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  If Publix 3 out of four bets on the over, why are the oddsmakers
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  dropping the number to make it easier or sorry?
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  Yeah, make it easier for the public to go over like public
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  like the over 50. They're going to love over 48
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  right now, however, tells us smart money hit the under.
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  So I do lean under here. The under is only getting 27%
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  bets, but 36% dollars. Prime time unders are 59% since
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  2019. Outdoor divisional unders are
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  55% since 2021. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref is
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  59% to the under historically. So if you do like the under, I
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  mean, that's the side that looks pretty sharp to me.
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  But here's the thing, you know, football, you can kind of talk
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  yourself into bets either way. Maybe you like a bet, maybe
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  lean. You know, to me, if I feel like
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  I'm really, you know, in a strong position with my Miami
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  money line, I don't want to also like I it's hard for me to
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  sweat, you know, multiple sides or the side and the total just
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  because, you know, I'm rooting for Miami to score, but then not
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  score too much. So again, if gun to the head, I
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  lean under here based on the data.
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  But what I guess what I'm getting at is because I feel my
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  position is strong on Miami, I'm going to stick with my Miami
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  money line. Like I'd hate to win Miami money
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  line and then lose my under when.
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  And you know, kind of from the start, I always had my eye on
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  Miami. So I'm going to go Miami here,
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  guys on the money line around -135 -, 140.
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  Now a couple of player props because we love sweating player
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  props. Why?
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  Because we have our own model or kind of the model that I've been
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  using long term, which is looking at how player props move
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  juice, movement liability, game day liability.
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  I lean on a lot of pass catchers.
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  You might notice like Josh, why don't you?
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  You know, I know it's early in the year, but those who swept
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  with me during last season, it's like, man, you take a lot of
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  like receiving yardage overs. Well, there's a reason for that.
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  It's a passing league. Nearly 5560% of all plays are a
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  pass across the NFL. And in a passing league, I want
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  to target pass catchers, but I don't want to target the star
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  pass catchers. Tyree Kill.
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  Obviously Stefon Diggs isn't on Buffalo anymore, but the star
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  pass catchers are where the public goes to.
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  I like to target kind of a lesser tier under the radar, not
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  pass catchers. So that's my old model.
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  But now luckily, thanks to our friends at Rhythm, we can apply
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  AI data-driven predictions with our prop bets.
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  So here are the two prop bets that I landed on for tonight.
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  First one, Khalil Shakur, love this guy.
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  He's a shifty wide receiver. He's been on Buffalo.
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  I think he's a fifth round pick out of Boise, but this guy
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  caught my eye last year. I bet on him quite a bit.
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  Cashed a few tickets for me and I'm going to go over 40 1/2
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  receiving yards for Khalil Shakur.
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  Can you get U.S. 41 receiving yards?
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  I hope that he can #1 Shakur in the opener caught 3 passes for
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  42 yards against Arizona. So he was involved in the
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  offense. He had the second most targets.
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  He went over that number. He's gone over this number in
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  four of his last six games, including going over this number
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  in four of his last five Rd. games.
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  Also last year against the Dolphins, last time he played
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  them and this game was in Miami, he caught 6 passes for 105
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  yards. The other thing I like about
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  this matchup, you got to think if you're playing a pass
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  catcher, who's going to defend the pass catcher?
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  Like I don't want Jalen Ramsey. Good thing here is Shakur is
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  looking like he's going to go up against the Dolphins nickel
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  corner. Cater ku ku ho cater coho.
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  I butcher the kids that last name.
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  Anyway, I like the fact that he's not going to be matched up
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  with Ramsey and he's going to go against this nickel corner.
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  So to add a little cherry on top, now we go to Rhythm.
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  We built a case for Shakur over 40.
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  Now receiving yards. Guess what Rhythm is predicting
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  from our buddy Shakur tonight? Rhythm is predicting 55.9
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  receiving yards. So again, if Shakur is 40 1/2 in
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  the market and Rhythm is predicting 55.9, that is a nice
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  15.4 yard discrepancy between what the markets offering and
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  what Rhythm is predicting. So that's my first prop bet.
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  Shakur over 40 and half receiving yards.
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  Rhythm is predicting a 55.9. My second prop bet.
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  Let's go to James Cook, running back for Buffalo out of Georgia,
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  Dalvin Cook's little brother. I'm going with James Cook over
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  19 1/2 receiving yards. So Cook going into this one in
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  the season opener, he caught 3 passes for 32 yards.
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  So he went over that number. He averaged 32 receiving yards
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  in the two games against Miami last year.
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  And I was reading about Cook in kind of the match up here again,
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  who's going to be defending him? Well, it's going to be a lot of
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  linebackers and Miami's linebackers aren't the greatest
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  past defense linebackers. So going up against Miami's
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  linebackers hopefully is a benefit here for Cook.
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  And then also the fact that with both Shakur and and Cook,
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  Buffalo's a dog again, it's also a high total.
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  Even though the total fell like 51, down to 48 and a half, 48,
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  still 48's a high total in the NFL.
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  So if you're a dog in Buffalo, you might be down in the game,
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  you might have to come back and score and it's a high total
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  game. That's why I'm kind of just
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  overarchingly leaning on some of these Buffalo pass catchers.
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  But here is the cherry on top. James Cook over 19 half
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  receiving yards. What is rhythm predicting?
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  37.4 So that is a what 17 almost 18 yard discrepancy between the
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  market and what rhythm is predicting.
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  So that's my card here guys. 3 pack Miami on the money line.
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  Shakur over 40 and half receiving yards, Cook over 19
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  and half receiving yards. Now I can just almost here in
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  the background, same game parlay.
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  No, no, no, no, same game parlay.
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  I hope they all hit, but here's the beauty of individual flat
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  betting. Let's say Miami wins and let's
• 14:40
  say Shakur goes over but Cook does not.
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  We're still 2:00 and 1:00 and we eke out a winning night.
• 14:45
  Let's say two of the three hit and you do same game parlay.
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  You lose the whole thing, you lose your unit.
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  So I'm one of the betters who again, I don't talk parlays.
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  Why? Because parlays are the penny
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  slot. They make a killing for the
• 14:57
  house. The odds makers make tons of
• 14:59
  money off it. Hold percentage is like 30%.
• 15:01
  I've read same game parlays. Hold is like 45%.
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  So there's a reason why they pushed the parlays because they
• 15:07
  make the money and the better does not.
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  But again, I just wanted to address that because, you know,
• 15:11
  every now and again it's like, oh, are you going to parlay
• 15:12
  them? No, no, no flat betting always.
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  So Shakur over 40 1/2, Cook over 19 1/2 and Miami on the money
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  line. Now to finish up our Thursday
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  card, we have a college football game and this one is very
• 15:25
  interesting for a couple different reasons.
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  So 7:30 PM Eastern Time we have Arizona State against Texas
• 15:32
  State. Now both these teams come in two
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  and O Arizona State beat Wyoming 48 to 7 in the opener.
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  They beat Mississippi State last week 30 to 23.
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  Texas State beat Lamar 3427 and then just crushed UTSA 49 to 10.
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  However, here's the thing about tonight's game We have Arizona
• 15:52
  State was obviously the bigger name school, bigger name program
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  coming from the Big 12. They're no longer in the PAC 12
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  versus if you look at Texas State, little Sunbelt team.
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  So kind of the public bias here is huge toward Arizona State.
• 16:06
  Currently across the market, Arizona State is getting 70% of
• 16:10
  spread bets. This is an easy one for the
• 16:12
  public. Take Arizona State.
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  Arizona State actually opened this game as high as a -, 2 1/2
• 16:18
  - 3 Rd. favorite. And even when it was -3 - 2 1/2
• 16:23
  when Arizona was favored, public was hammering Arizona State.
• 16:27
  However, even though you're getting 70% of bets on Arizona
• 16:30
  State guys, this line is completely flipped to Texas
• 16:33
  State -1 1/2. That is a huge dog to fave line
• 16:38
  move. Again, we open Arizona State -2
• 16:41
  1/2 - 3. They're getting 70% of bets, yet
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  the line is flipped to Texas State -1 1/2.
• 16:47
  Why on earth is this line moving toward Texas State when everyone
• 16:50
  and their mother in a heavily bet primetime game is sweating
• 16:54
  Arizona State? That is a dead giveaway here
• 16:56
  that pro money sharp dog to fave line move money is on Texas
• 17:00
  State. Now, if you look at the bet
• 17:01
  splits here on the spread, Texas State's only getting 30% of bets
• 17:06
  but 48% of money. And then if you look at on the
• 17:09
  money line, Texas State's only getting 41% of bets but 66% of
• 17:15
  money. So that is a really good low
• 17:17
  bets, higher dollars bets split whether you're on the spread or
• 17:19
  the money line. So again, we just talked about
• 17:22
  Miami money lining, a short home favorite.
• 17:24
  Same thing here. I'm going to go Texas State on
• 17:26
  the money line. I was able to shop around and
• 17:28
  find them at -115 some shops are a little bit higher, closer to
• 17:32
  -120 but I love, love, love, love that dog to fave line move
• 17:37
  just a little. Another angle here, I was
• 17:39
  reading about the quarterbacks, Texas State's QB Jordan McLeod,
• 17:43
  dual threat player. He won the Sunbelt Offensive
• 17:46
  Player of the week award last week.
• 17:48
  He's a fifth year senior, so he's a veteran.
• 17:51
  He was the quarterback of James Madison last year and had a
• 17:54
  great year. Remember, JMU had a great
• 17:56
  season. I think they went from did they
• 17:58
  go D2 to D1? Anyway, they had a great year.
• 18:01
  He was their stud quarterback versus Arizona State's QB.
• 18:05
  What the heck is his name? Is it Sam Levitt?
• 18:08
  Yeah, Sam Levitt. He is a red shirt freshman.
• 18:12
  So it's his second year. So he's only started in his
• 18:16
  career. Let's see the two games this
• 18:18
  year and from last year he started the last or he appeared
• 18:23
  in four games. So on the one hand, we have this
• 18:27
  fifth year senior Jordan McLeod, dual threat offensive player of
• 18:30
  the week last week versus a second year red shirt freshman
• 18:33
  who again has not played in many Rd. games and does not have a
• 18:37
  long track record of success. So to me, that's another angle
• 18:39
  here that maybe Texas State betters are are looking at wise
• 18:42
  guys moving that number. But I could have stopped the cap
• 18:45
  at Hey, everyone's on Arizona State, but we have a dog to fave
• 18:48
  line move in favor of Texas State.
• 18:50
  So that's enough for me. I'm going Texas State on the
• 18:52
  money line at -115 also add in our friends at Juice Reel Robo
• 18:57
  Jackson, the hardest working AI bot around has two best bets
• 19:02
  that come out every day at noon. Guess what?
• 19:04
  One's on Miami, one's on Texas State, both money line.
• 19:07
  You love to see it. So that about does it for
• 19:10
  episode 118 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast on a
• 19:14
  big thirsty Thursday. This is part of the pod where I
• 19:16
  leave you with a few things. Then I ask a favor of you first.
• 19:19
  Could you please help me to grow this podcast?
• 19:22
  And you can do it very simply, very easily by giving it a five
• 19:25
  star review. If you're listening on Spotify
• 19:27
  or iTunes and there's an option to rate and review, give it five
• 19:31
  stars. It'll mean a lot to me.
• 19:32
  Help us to grow the pod, rise up the charts and the rankings and
• 19:36
  gain more credibility in the market.
• 19:37
  Also, if you want to recommend it to a friend or click the
• 19:40
  follow button, if that's an option, that'll be great as
• 19:43
  well. That way, that way you'll get
• 19:44
  alerted as soon as it drops. If there's an option to leave a
• 19:46
  nice comment, say, hey, I really enjoy Josh's data-driven
• 19:49
  breakdowns. Boom, simple as that.
• 19:51
  Anything like that would be very, very much appreciated.
• 19:55
  But five stars would go a long way and I promise it'll take you
• 19:57
  less than 5 seconds to do it. Secondly, if you enjoy this
• 20:01
  podcast because you are intrigued by the data-driven
• 20:04
  approach, maybe you were betting on sports, never knew this was
• 20:07
  an approach to sports betting. Maybe you, you know, stumbled
• 20:10
  upon the idea of, hey, looking at percentages line move system
• 20:14
  matches, flat bedding dog to fave line moves, reverse line
• 20:18
  moves. Maybe none of this really, you
• 20:19
  know, kind of. Dawned on you until now and you
• 20:22
  enjoy the breakdowns, you know, win or lose, I try to win every
• 20:24
  bet we mention I bet them all myself.
• 20:26
  So you know, I'm rooting for the plays that I that I mentioned.
• 20:30
  But overall, teaching the the philosophy, the approach, the
• 20:33
  data-driven approach. If that appeals to you and you
• 20:36
  want to learn more about data-driven sports betting,
• 20:38
  well, guess what, there's a great book that you can go buy.
• 20:41
  It's going to be less than 20 bucks.
• 20:42
  It's called the everything guide to sports betting.
• 20:44
  The author's pretty sharp guy. The author's me.
• 20:47
  I wrote the book, so just go to Amazon.com, type in the
• 20:50
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
• 20:53
  or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
• 20:55
  in the industry, guys. How lines are set, how and why
• 20:58
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 21:00
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 21:03
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
• 21:05
  It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 21:07
  Betting. So pick one up for you or a
• 21:09
  buddy of yours and guess what? Bring the book to the book.
• 21:13
  Sports book that is. I'll sign it for you.
• 21:15
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
• 21:18
  Have you signed up for a 7 day free trial of my two favorite
• 21:22
  sports betting apps, Rhythm and Juice Reel?
• 21:25
  We talked about Rhythm and Juice Reel every day on the pod, but
• 21:28
  they helped me win. I want them to help you win.
• 21:30
  Let's start with Rhythm. Do a great job of powering the
• 21:33
  pod, but Rhythm is fantastic for their AI driven best bets or not
• 21:37
  best bets, game models and predictions.
• 21:39
  I should call it that for both games as well as player props.
• 21:43
  And again, player props. To me, that's really what I love
• 21:46
  about rhythm the most. Their game predictions are
• 21:47
  awesome too, but I love getting that information like, hey, the
• 21:52
  MIT stats quants, whatever you want to call them, they're
• 21:54
  saying Shakur's 55.9 tonight we're getting over 40 1/2.
• 21:58
  Boom. I love to be able to break down
• 22:00
  and look at system matches like that in the player prop market.
• 22:03
  And then of course, Juice Reel. Fantastic app.
• 22:06
  Another data-driven app where you can just follow the best bet
• 22:08
  picks. They're AI driven picks based
• 22:11
  upon the internal data that Juice Reel compiles or the
• 22:15
  arbitrage opportunities, as well as the sharp mush plays as well
• 22:19
  as the game breakdowns. That's pretty cool too because
• 22:21
  I've been tweeting it out. It's been getting a lot of run
• 22:24
  because what it does is it gives you the exact dollar amount bets
• 22:28
  in dollars for both the side, the total and money line spread
• 22:32
  over under for all the games. And people are like, oh, where
• 22:35
  the hell is that money coming from?
• 22:37
  What sports book is that from? No, it's not a sports book.
• 22:39
  It's from everyone who has an account at Juice Real and who
• 22:42
  link their sports book, sync their books and have placed real
• 22:45
  actual dollars on the game. So it's kind of a fascinating
• 22:49
  feature of Juice Real that I would highly recommend.
• 22:52
  But whether it's Juice Real Rhythm, again, I think it's time
• 22:55
  for you guys to sign up. And you can do it in a specific
• 22:57
  way. You got to do it this way.
• 22:58
  Just click the custom link that's located in the bio
• 23:01
  description of the All Systems Go podcast.
• 23:03
  So if you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, it gives you
• 23:05
  the rundown of today's pod. Scroll down.
• 23:07
  There's a couple links for juice real and rhythm.
• 23:09
  Click those, get signed up, and then we can sweat some sharp
• 23:13
  data-driven plays together. Lastly, the part of the pod
• 23:17
  where I wish you wish you well, but leave you with a couple of
• 23:19
  thoughts here. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 23:22
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 23:24
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
• 23:27
  Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 23:30
  In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts, out in the desert
• 23:33
  where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his
• 23:36
  number runners where the lowest use possible is found, the South
• 23:38
  Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 23:41
  stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 23:43
  Circo, wherever it may be, you're going to show me.
• 23:46
  Couple good winners from baseball last night, The Tigers,
• 23:49
  the D backs again. Only two more wins we need from
• 23:51
  the Snakes to go over 83 1/2. Guess what?
• 23:54
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 23:56
  We're going to post about the book Sweatsharp Contrarian Plays
• 23:58
  all night long. So wish you the best luck
• 24:01
  everyone. Let's have a good Thursday here.
• 24:03
  Can we get three out of four of these football bets?
• 24:05
  That is the goal. But as always, stay sharp.
• 24:08
  Stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
• 24:12
  side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
• 24:13
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 24:16
  Of course not. Betting is hard.
• 24:18
  If you haven't realized yet, it's unpredictable, but here's
• 24:20
  the thing, smart money won't win every bet, but it'll win a
• 24:23
  majority of the bets, 55 to 60% over the long haul.
• 24:27
  So if we can kind of bet with our head and not our heart and
• 24:29
  follow that model against the public, with the house, with the
• 24:32
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
• 24:35
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 24:38
  So have a fantastic Thursday, everyone.
• 24:40
  We back at it tomorrow for episode 119 of the All Systems
• 24:45
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 24:47
  And you guys know what Friday means, right?
• 24:49
  Friday means biting little bit of UFC12 in a row.
• 24:53
  Can we make it 13 in a row? Looking forward to that e-mail
• 24:56
  from my buddy John Ewing. I'll already have some leans
• 24:59
  here in UFC for the weekend. Once I get that e-mail, be able
• 25:03
  to confirm and hopefully we can run our streak to to 13
• 25:06
  straight. But anyway, guys, have a great
• 25:08
  Thursday. I'll see you tomorrow again for
• 25:10
  episode 119 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 25:14
  powered by Rhythm. Have a great night everybody,
• 25:16
  Good luck.