Latest / John’s Newsletter / After its car-crash election, where is Brazil headed?

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After its car-crash election, where is Brazil headed? · John’s Newsletter

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  [music]
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  SPEAKER_00: Good morning,
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  SPEAKER_00: everyone,
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  SPEAKER_00: and welcome to Around the world in 20 minutes,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: where we try to make sense of the beguiling new planet we find ourselves on.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm just about to set sail.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: I start packing for tomorrow, the staves in both Milan and Wallachia.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Washington are on the alert for me coming and going.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, we have a few things in the way ahead of that.
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  SPEAKER_00: We have finished the Brazilian election today, the car crash that it was.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: We move on to the Israeli election, which is taking place today.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: Then I get everything over,
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  SPEAKER_00: hit the new apartment,
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: get ready for John's wedding and see Captain Cy where we're going to be live
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: for Foreign Affairs 15 next week, which is exciting.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: And we have this little thing called the midterms.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: So it's busy, but it's never boring.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: And it's thrilling to be here with you.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: I love the fact that we get to spend this time together.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: But please do give.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: We're running around the clock for you saying things nobody else,
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  SPEAKER_00: ironically,
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  SPEAKER_00: except The New York Times is saying,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is the resilient election was well and truly stolen.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Even the New York Times, bless their heart, said there were voting irregularities.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: But we're the ones who dug down and explained the mystery as to how the anatomy of esteem was.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: And for that information...
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: We do that in Around the world in 20 minutes,
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: the Patrick Henry podcast,
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: the Trump revolution, the founders briefing, our deep dives.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And, uh,
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Also, the Dead Realist Society,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: John and I are about to head toward America and start with Ernest Hemingway's,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think the most underrated novel of the last 100 years,
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Fiesta, or also known as The Sun Also Rises.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: John did one on these.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And again,
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: if you're a member,
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: you can go back and find me talking about why Ernest Hemingway matters.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought that was a rather good one done on Fiesta.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: But with John's expert help,
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: the two of us together will navigate Fiesta and then two of the great short stories.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to move on to Larry McMurtry and Lonesome Dove.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: John has a unique connection to that.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be fun.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Then we're going to head on from there to Raymond Chandler, another guy I briefly touched.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: He did so by making some of the greatest detective stories ever made.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to look at The Big Sleep.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: Farewell,
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: My Lovely,
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: and The Long Goodbye, I think, are probably the three we're going to look at.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: They're all great, though.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Lady in the Lake's great as well.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: You get access to my back pages,
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  SPEAKER_00: three and a half years of looking back at the great work we've done,
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: and access to our Much Love Chat,
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: where you guys take the lead,
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: and I just hit my oar,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: and occasionally I always read them to the point I annoy the staff about them.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: All this for 30 cents a day.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Please, this is an honor system.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Keep faith with us as we are constantly keeping faith with you.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: 30 cents a day, $100 a year.
• 3:41
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• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you really believe in what we're doing, and you should, give us the full 210 WAC.
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  SPEAKER_00: So without further ado, where does Brazil go after its car crash election?
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  SPEAKER_00: And the answer is simply down.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brazil is one of those countries that absolutely should make it.
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  SPEAKER_00: I remember reading at one point a Times literary supplement from 1900 talking
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  SPEAKER_00: about emerging markets worth investing in.
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  SPEAKER_00: And they listed Argentina and Brazil as having all these resources.
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  SPEAKER_00: All they need is a modicum of stable government, a lack of lunacy, and they would do well.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that's true.
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  SPEAKER_00: That remains the frustrating reality of Brazil.
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  SPEAKER_00: Argentina, for that matter, though, under Malay, happier days are ahead.
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  SPEAKER_00: And they mentioned South Africa, which also is horribly governed.
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  SPEAKER_00: The ANC is reverting to the mean in Africa,
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  SPEAKER_00: unfortunately, rather than following the example of Mandela.
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  SPEAKER_00: Under Ramaphosa, we're finding money stuffed in couches, and I'm not even making that up.
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  SPEAKER_00: But for Brazil, where does it go after this car crash of an election?
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  SPEAKER_00: The answer is simply down.
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  SPEAKER_00: Because I could write that same editorial that appeared in the Times in 1900 now.
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  SPEAKER_00: 125 years later,
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  SPEAKER_00: it has everything it ought to make it, and yet it constantly gets in its own way.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Brazil certainly got in its own way yesterday with the car crash of a vote.
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  SPEAKER_00: One last comment on what was obviously a stolen election.
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, two comments.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think if anything,
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  SPEAKER_00: I underestimate and I find that hard to believe given that I deal
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  SPEAKER_00: with this every day, introduce you guys to this, talk about this all the time.
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  SPEAKER_00: But if anything, we're underestimating the cynicism of our left wing globalist establishment.
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  SPEAKER_00: I've gotten done reading The Guardian, seeing that the EU immediately...
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  SPEAKER_00: Immediately said,
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  SPEAKER_00: this is a triumph with Lula's win for multilateralism,
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  SPEAKER_00: ignoring all the election stealing and irregularities and downright fraud.
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  SPEAKER_00: Ignoring all this and saying,
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  SPEAKER_00: isn't this wonderful,
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  SPEAKER_00: Pedro Sanchez, the soon to be ex-premier The mayor of Spain congratulated Lula.
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  SPEAKER_00: The usual pathetic suspects all thought this was great.
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  SPEAKER_00: Alex Soros, the son of the devil himself.
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  SPEAKER_00: George Soros, of course, thinks this is wonderful and is a fight against authoritarianism.
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  SPEAKER_00: On the very day that Lula when he won after cheating
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  SPEAKER_00: to win said you know I might censor
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  SPEAKER_00: the internet Alex Soros thinks this is just wonderful.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know you can hear Hillary Clinton hysterically screeching in the background.
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  SPEAKER_00: Judge a man by his enemies and populism judged by its enemies is looking pretty good.
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  SPEAKER_00: But this is appalling.
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  SPEAKER_00: Not a shred of interest, not a shred of curiosity in the steel.
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  SPEAKER_00: The one exception, and it's only half-hearted, Oh, two exceptions.
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  SPEAKER_00: There's a Spectator article worth reading in Real Clear World,
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  SPEAKER_00: I believe,
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  SPEAKER_00: today about the fact that this is all very irregular,
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  SPEAKER_00: but hey,
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  SPEAKER_00: it didn't really matter anyway, but Brazil's in for a hard time is the basic theme.
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  SPEAKER_00: Probably worth And then the New York Times did mention their irregularities,
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  SPEAKER_00: which might lead to some sort of challenge.
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  SPEAKER_00: But the argument is that they won by such an amount,
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  SPEAKER_00: 52 to 48, that even if there were irregularities, they were outside the realm of...
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  SPEAKER_00: So we don't need to worry about this at all.
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  SPEAKER_00: Let's just move on.
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  SPEAKER_00: Bolsonaro, Flavio refuses to accept it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And in return,
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  SPEAKER_00: the ever mighty Supreme Court said,
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  SPEAKER_00: I'd like your passport, please, so you can't flee the country.
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  SPEAKER_00: The country on the day that Lula said,
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  SPEAKER_00: well, we're thinking about censoring Brazilian social media.
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  SPEAKER_00: Alex Soros is an example of everything to despise about the modern world
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  SPEAKER_00: and Nepo Baby, who my firm wouldn't hire to get a coffee.
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  SPEAKER_00: The arrogant little moron cheering and changing what words mean.
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  SPEAKER_00: The idea that somehow this is anti-authoritarian behavior beggars description.
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  SPEAKER_00: We cannot despise these people enough.
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  SPEAKER_00: They don't despise.
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  SPEAKER_00: They don't care about democracy.
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  SPEAKER_00: They'd rather win unfairly than lose fairly.
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  SPEAKER_00: And the minute that happens, you have a fraying of an electoral system or indeed worldviews.
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  SPEAKER_00: If I can't count on you to keep faith with the result, look at Al Gore in 2000.
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  SPEAKER_00: Very close selection.
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  SPEAKER_00: Came down to a few hanging chads in Florida.
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  SPEAKER_00: But in the end,
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  SPEAKER_00: for all that I'm absolutely no friend of Al Gore and the grifting he did on
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  SPEAKER_00: the green stuff after, but he said, now it's time for me to go.
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  SPEAKER_00: He knew when to get out of the way.
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  SPEAKER_00: Richard Nixon in 1960.
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  SPEAKER_00: A lot of dead people voted in Illinois,
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  SPEAKER_00: and LBJ rounded up an awful lot of votes in various precincts he controlled
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  SPEAKER_00: in Texas.
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  SPEAKER_00: Nixon was urged to challenge it.
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  SPEAKER_00: He refused to do so.
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  SPEAKER_00: So there are examples in both the Democratic Party in Gore and the Republican Party
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  SPEAKER_00: in Nixon where you don't challenge the election result,
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  SPEAKER_00: murky though it was, for the greater good.
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  SPEAKER_00: But let's flip that around now in Brazil.
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  SPEAKER_00: And look at what's happening.
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  SPEAKER_00: If Bolsonaro,
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  SPEAKER_00: either of them,
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  SPEAKER_00: Jaira or Flavio, had done what Lula just did, we'd never hear the end of it.
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  SPEAKER_00: They'd be screeching from the rooftops, right-wing fascism, blah, blah, blah.
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  SPEAKER_00: Without a loyal opposition,
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  SPEAKER_00: which we don't have anymore given their behavior,
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  SPEAKER_00: all you have to do is play that mind game, flip positions.
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  SPEAKER_00: They'd be screeching from the rooftops while now they're studiously looking
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  SPEAKER_00: at their fingernails, the differences that they won.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's just straight out power.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is realism.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is not complicated at all.
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  SPEAKER_00: Occam's razor explains more and Hamlet explains more than my favorite play Macbeth.
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  SPEAKER_00: People just aren't that Byzantine in their thinking.
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  SPEAKER_00: They really They want to win.
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  SPEAKER_00: They don't care how they win.
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  SPEAKER_00: But without a loyal opposition, as Nixon and Gore both showed, you're in trouble.
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  SPEAKER_00: And we're reaching that point across the board.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Brazil is just,
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  SPEAKER_00: to quote Roger, the egregious Roger Waters, it's just another brick in the wall.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that's exactly where we are, the great Pink Floyd.
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  SPEAKER_00: That this is obviously unfair.
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  SPEAKER_00: He's trying to challenge it.
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  SPEAKER_00: But as the courts are run entirely by Lula jackals, I don't think we're going to get very far.
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  SPEAKER_00: They'll say, look, it didn't matter.
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  SPEAKER_00: Even though that's nonsense.
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  SPEAKER_00: One last comment then beyond the studious incuriosity of the mainstream media.
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  SPEAKER_00: Handmaiden and propagandists now, not news source people for the world.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're not interested in the news story here.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're interested in the globalist center-left establishment winning.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's what they're interested in, leftist winning.
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  SPEAKER_00: Cristiano Zanin,
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  SPEAKER_00: the lackey judge who was Bolsonaro's personal lawyer,
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  SPEAKER_00: who issued the decree that let voting stations stay open,
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  SPEAKER_00: just one final thought that the staff came up with yesterday,
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: in addition to the anatomy of a steal.
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  SPEAKER_00: Zanin said the extension applied only to those polling stations that had not yet closed.
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  SPEAKER_00: He said this at 5.02, two minutes after the election had come to a result.
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  SPEAKER_00: So the extension for two hours applies only to those stations still open two minutes
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  SPEAKER_00: after polling was supposed to have closed.
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  SPEAKER_00: But why were some polling stations still open?
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  SPEAKER_00: At 502.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is the heart of the matter.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is the Sherlockian argument.
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  SPEAKER_00: He said, only polling stations still open at 5.02 when they're supposed to close at 5.
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  SPEAKER_00: Only they should continue counting votes.
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  SPEAKER_00: All the other ones, the software is locked down to protect the integrity of that system.
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  SPEAKER_00: So, indeed, which polling stations were still open after the vote was supposed to have stopped?
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  SPEAKER_00: We have two secret powers here at our firm.
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  SPEAKER_00: We don't play the ball.
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  SPEAKER_00: We don't play the man, pardon me.
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  SPEAKER_00: We play the ball.
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  SPEAKER_00: We use logic to get our results.
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  SPEAKER_00: And if you're still open after you're supposed to be closed, you know something is coming.
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  SPEAKER_00: You're a precinct captain who's been alerted by Bolsonaro that something is coming
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  SPEAKER_00: in the term of your lackey, Cristiano Zanin, doing this.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Why were there still polling stations open after they were supposed
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  SPEAKER_00: to have been closed by two minutes?
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  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Second point,
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  SPEAKER_00: beyond the incuriosity of the media about this and Zanin doing this,
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  SPEAKER_00: is that getting away with this kind of thing just emboldens more of it in
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  SPEAKER_00: a Jeffersonian way.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: This is an eternal battle.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: This will go on forever, but we need to be made clear that our enemies are even more rude.
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  SPEAKER_00: Cynical and determined to save themselves the worst that they do
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  SPEAKER_00: when it's now apparent to everybody how badly they're doing.
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  SPEAKER_00: Why does Lula want to censor social media?
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: Because it's going to mention what I just said over and over and over again.
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  SPEAKER_00: And he just can't drown out that cacophony as he goes on stealing the election.
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  SPEAKER_00: The cacophony will get the better of him.
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  SPEAKER_00: The sound will get louder and louder and louder.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that's where we are at the moment.
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  SPEAKER_00: So where does Brazil go from here after the steal?
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  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's look at what Lula's policies have wrought now.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's been a long time since Bolsa Familia,
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  SPEAKER_00: since Lula used his trade with China, where Brazil became a resource extraordinaire.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, public security has gone into the toilet and...
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_00: As it has throughout the region,
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  SPEAKER_00: people don't want grandma beaten up in a favela and there's lax public security
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  SPEAKER_00: across much of Brazil,
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  SPEAKER_00: an increase in gangs to the point the Americans have now put two of the major gangs
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  SPEAKER_00: on the terrorist watch list in the United States.
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  SPEAKER_00: There's been excessive government spending.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get back to this in a minute.
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  SPEAKER_00: But certainly that's been the case with Lula's spendthrift,
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: corrupt, and fairly inept government doing that.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: And there's been virtually unlimited power exercised by Democrats.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: The idea of this guy is a judge and has to deal with civil liberties makes both me
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: and the ghost of Jefferson physically ill.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: So you've had lax public security,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: excessive government spending,
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: and virtually unlimited power exercised by a Lula-packed Brazilian Supreme Court.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's what you're going to get more of, because on those issues...
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: Lula has traction.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: In theory, he should be in charge of public security.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Eventually,
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  SPEAKER_00: he's responsible with the Congress for spending,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: and he appoints justices to the Supreme Court.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: So this is all in Lula's ballywick,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: and it's likely to The problem with democracy,
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: says Aristotle, the founder of Modern Logic, what is, is.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: The problem
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  SPEAKER_00: with democracy is its people will always vote themselves too many benefits at
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: the expense of the future.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: This will lead to economic chaos which will lead to political instability
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: which will lead to the rise of a tyrant.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Our founders lived in mortal dread of this.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at Brazil,
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: if you look at France,
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: if you look at South Africa,
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: this haunting Aristotelian pattern is clearly out there and is
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: a huge political risk, specifically for Brazil, but for the world more generally.
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  SPEAKER_00: So Jefferson founded
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: the University of Virginia.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Franklin was involved with the University of Pennsylvania,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: UPenn, also in the Ivy League, UVA, one of our great schools.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Go on the lawn that Jefferson designed and you feel like you're in heaven.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: And Adams was involved with Harvard.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: This was a way to deal with Aristotle's curse, but they haven't done so well on that in Brazil.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Lula's campaign clearly benefited from last-minute promises of enormous extra-social scrutiny.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, in between the two rounds, he bribed the Brazilian electorate.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: This spending will add up if it's enacted,
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: which it probably won't be,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: but if it's enacted,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: it would cost Brazil an extra 40 billion,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: billion with a B, pounds, not dollars, pounds.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: So if this last minute bribe...
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: of extra social spending to the people of Brazil for 40 billion pounds is enacted,
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: more excessive spending on a country that,
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: as we said, is already in pretty bad economic straits.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: Growth this year is going to be below 2%, which is ridiculous.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: This is a bad number for France.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brazil, which is an emerging market, ought to have 5% as its base, and it's nowhere near that.
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  SPEAKER_00: At the same time,
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  SPEAKER_00: inflation has creeped up to 5.2%, likely according to the IMF, by the end of 2026.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: So high inflation somehow, low growth rates.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: So what does he do?
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: He throws 40 billion pounds onto the fire of inflation.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: Fantastic thinking there, Ace.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: Another man.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: I want, as we said in Foreign Affairs 15,
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  SPEAKER_00: there should be a table for inept, angry old men to scream at waitresses.
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  SPEAKER_00: You think Lula can be there, say,
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  SPEAKER_00: with Bernie,
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  SPEAKER_00: a few of the other,
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  SPEAKER_00: Melenchon,
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  SPEAKER_00: that extra for Les Miserables,
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  SPEAKER_00: they should all be sitting at a table shrieking at some waitress.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think they'd get along famously, but these old men, as Lawrence said, are ruining the peace.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Lula is part of that.
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  SPEAKER_00: So $40 billion and a bribe, as Aristotle would clearly see.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't going to help Brazil in the long run.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: And then you have the fact that after the election,
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: one forgets that Brazil's Congress is now firmly anti-Lula.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: Bolsonaro's party and allies picked up the greatest single number of seats.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: There are many parties in Brazil's House and Senate, the lower and the upper houses.
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: So nobody has a majority.
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_00: But the greatest single beneficiary of the first round
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: of voting certainly was Bolsonaro's party.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: So they're now running many cities, many federal states.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: As well as having a huge,
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: a plurality,
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: though nowhere near a majority in the Congress,
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: but they're certainly not going to be pro-Lula.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: And in fact, I would hope they begin to impeach a couple of these judges.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: They may not get demoraes.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: Who'd be the ultimate kind of hate object to knock down a man who never saw
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: an authoritarian ruling.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: And he's both arrogant, thuggish, and stupid.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: I certainly hope they go after him in a Jeffersonian manner.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: And so don't look for those Brazilian numbers to change.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: If anything,
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: So the real political risk immediate answer is things are going to go down.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: Things are going to get worse.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: For all its resources,
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Brazil, Phil, is not a place to invest in, not a place to bet on at the moment.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: While it retains the ability always to do well,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: and because of it's blessed with these abundant resources and people,
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: it could turn around.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And you have to keep your eye on that change in trajectory.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's how a risk analyst would look at this.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: If they ever get a government that's fiscally responsible,
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: deregulates the place, opens it up, you can see it doing very, very well indeed.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: But we're not there and we're not going to be there.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to have to get worse before it gets better.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: That old Leninist adage is actually right here.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: And we do have the idea that Congress is going to block Lula from doing a lot of
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: the crazier things he do.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: The question now is Lula at 80 after the brain surgery slowing down
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: to Joe Biden levels of decrepitude.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: What comes next?
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: And that's, can he get a successor in place?
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the Vice President Elkman is going to be the successor.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: Can we, who's more moderate, might do better on the left?
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Can he get a successor groomed over this next term?
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: And for the Bolsonaro clan, where do they go from here?
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: How do they challenge this election, point out it was wrong, and get ready for the stasis and
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: And the failure to come so next time they can finally get the ball over the line.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: These are the big outstanding questions.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: But the short term answer that Brazil after its car crash election is not going
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: to do better is not a place to invest in.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: And we are downgrading it as a result.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's the gloomy news from here.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: Please do give again,
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: and I promise you we will be back tomorrow,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure, to talk about did Harry Houdini survive yet again in Israel?
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: The most likely outcome,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: and I say this ahead of time,
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't looked at the exit polling yet,
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: that's today's work,
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: the most likely outcome at the moment would be for neither grouping,
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: the Bibi grouping or the grouping around Eisenkot, to get a majority.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: Ironically, the likely majority will be held by It's a significant minority of the population.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: So they'd have to informally support a minority government.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody's going to get a majority, it looks like.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: At the moment, Eisencott is just a nose ahead of Bibi, but Harry Houdini has a ways to play.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: If Eisencott does win, but it's a minority government, that's...
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: That might not be the end of Beebe yet.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: Only with a majority against him would that be the case.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: But this minority government,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: the one thing they all agree on,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: the Bennets,
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: the Lapides,
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: the Eisencots,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: actually agree on, is that they would want some sort of formal hearing.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: But all that is to play for.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: All of that is ahead, evidently.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: Bibi's been trying to get the army involved in doing something
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: to increase tensions ahead of the vote.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: His last campaign message on X wasn't subtle.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: It was a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's not subtle, but he's trying to scare individuals.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: So that is tomorrow, if not later today.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: We keep faith with you.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: Please keep faith with us.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: See you soon.