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Transcript

Felix Prehn - TRUMP JUST RESET THE MARKET | Major Changes Explained + Stock Market News 11 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to the Bleeding Market free market live stream here.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I want to spend the next 20 minutes or so with you to prepare you for what's coming, to make sure you really understand what's actually going on there so you can make better and smarter decisions, and I'll try to share with you everything that I've learned in the last 13 years on the markets and everything that I've learned from my mentors, who've been in the markets for many, many decades longer than me.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: So I've made a little plan here for you, and this one is some.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to go a little deeper perhaps than usual, because I think this is such an important critical moment where a lot of people are losing a lot of money money they've worked for for many, many years and they're also missing out on perhaps huge opportunities.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure you are really prepared here, you really are set up.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So what's happening to the market that's the first thing we've got to understand, and I'll show you some data points on that in a moment and what actually happens if this gets a lot worse?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: How does the market handle it?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: How does the stock exchange handle this?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: We're going to walk you through that.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And then what everyone's asking me do I sell?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Do I sell now?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Do I buy now?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: What do I do?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: When do I sell?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll give you the answer to that.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's point number three, and I'll put that near the top because it's really important.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: But if you really want to understand what this is really about because once you understand what this crash or dip or whatever you want to call it, what's really causing this and what seems to be the real like impetus for trump to drive this because at this point that's exactly what that is and that isn't a political statement, that's just fact you will look at this in a very, very different light.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: And then I want to cheer you up because there is good news.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: There is good news number one.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: There's good news number two.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And there's good news number three.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: And number three is probably my favorite.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: It's probably the biggest one.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So you want to make sure you catch those and you take notes on those.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: And then, how do we actually buy stocks on a crash?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Do we just willy-nilly buy everything we have?
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Do we put it all in the market now?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Do we buy Tesla?
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Do we buy the S&P or the QQQ?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: What do we actually do?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So I want to give you a strategy that I think makes a heck of a lot of sense and that I think a lot of people pretty much everybody, and probably most of you, would agree that that's a good strategy.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to give you that as well, to make sure you are insanely well prepared today.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So does that make sense?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Does that sound good?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: If that sounds good, write crash or something like that in the chat.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Let's put crash in the chat, because that's kind of the way we're feeling.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Premarket this morning, by the way, is a little bit better, but not a lot.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: It's not brilliant, it's just not like completely house on fire type stuff.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So this is a very nice little summary of what's been going on here the last couple of days, last two weeks or so.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Um, last two weeks it's been getting getting pretty nasty here, okay, uh, I've seen a lot of crashes here.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So what are the um?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I say brilliant.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Well, you know what I mean.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: So we had a we're a pretty nice rally up till mid-february, right, and then the tariffs were getting getting a bit louder and we got that q1 gdp estimate which came in really, really nasty, largely because gdp counts imports as a bad thing, which makes kind of no sense, but that's the way the data is collected.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Trump then came out a couple of days later and said he's not watching the stock market and we were all like what?
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I thought you were there to bail us out.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I thought that's why you got elected.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: And then, two days ago, he acknowledges that there may be a recession.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: He didn't rule it out and the market went, oh my God.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: And yesterday, well, we lost $5 trillion in the last 13 days Not in one go, but yeah, pretty significant sell-off.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: It happens very quickly.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Our momentum changes very, very, very quickly.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Now this is also what's driving us, I think, down yesterday that the government is actually concerned that there could be a shutdown at the end of this week and that could again amplify worries, because then, you know, government employees are getting paid and there's money getting into the market and so on, and it could just be an extra little bit.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: That just scares people and makes them sell just a little bit more and therefore we go down a bit harder.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: So that's something to watch out for.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: What's going on there in Washington.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: And CNN's lovely fear and greed index is at 15.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: You know how low that is that's really, really low.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Now, of course the good old Warren Buffett says and I'll make this very easy for you, you buy here and you sell over here.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Right, but in reality that's one of the hardest things you could actually ever do, because people lack a kind of like a strategy.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: They kind of lack a rule book, they kind of lack real reasons to do that.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: We always think it would be nice if the stocks are cheap, right, but then when they do really fall, it doesn't feel cheap, it just feels scary.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So people don't buy.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: People tend to actually do the opposite.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Pretty much everybody out there sells over here and buys over here, because that's just how we're programmed.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Our psychology is like that.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: It's a bit weird.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I've worked with thousands and thousands of traders over the years and pretty much everybody is programmed like that.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: It's the ones that are that you want to be worried about because they're probably going to be mass murderers or something.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't feel good to be buying right now You're buying and then it's down another 5%.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: And then you buy some more and it's down another 5%.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: It's horrible.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Much nicer to buy stuff as it's going up from a psychology point of view.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So I want to give you the Strategies that will fix that for you, and I've recorded a very short masterclass where I put all of that into it, and there's a link down below at phoenixpenserorggetfree where you will literally get that rulebook.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: You get that package.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So if you want to really use this as an opportunity to get better as an investor or as a trader, it's pretty much the same thing then that will help.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Now you're going to ask me, though thanks for the 109th, like there to the Midwest.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you, my friend.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at Tesla as an example.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: I should be selling a stock like Tesla, right?
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So it's down tremendously.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: It's down at $222.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: It was trading at $480.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: It was heading towards $500, we were thinking at one point.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Right now it's at $222.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So, do you sell at this point?
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Well, when do you actually sell?
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: So what I teach is the generally accepted best practice that the traders on Wall Street use.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: The first thing is well, first of all, you obviously got to figure out well, when do you buy?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: We make that pretty easy, and in trade vision here, we give you a buy signal, a breakout signal.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Obviously, you're going to use that with some strategy, but you can get your access to this for free, for, like, there's a week's trial.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: So that was your entry point, right.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: And then what do you do?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a week's trial to it, so that was your entry point, right.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: And then then what do you do?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Well, you simply draw up at sort of a trend line and it's not the purpose perfect trend line in the world, but something like that.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: When you dip below it, you might want to take some money off the table because you bought at 280 and you're now selling at 420.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty good run, right.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: That would be one way of doing it.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Another way of doing it, so that that would be my strategy.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Number one would be trend line.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, one trend line trend and it takes a little bit of practice to learn exactly where to put those.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I I get that a little bit easier is number two.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: You see that yellow line there that's simply called a 50-day moving average line and trade vision.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: You can just toggle that on the way.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I just have right, you saw me doing that down there at the MA there.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So this is the 50-day MA moving average line and when you go below that, like we did here, generally not a good thing and that could be the second point where you sell.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: So now you would have sold at about $400.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Again, not bad right, if you bought down here at sort of 280, that still feels pretty good, right?
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: You made $120.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Woohoo, that's pretty good.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It's at 40% up or something.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Now, what if you didn't?
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And what if you're still a bag holder?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Well, let's put on the 150.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So that's usually where Wall Street says only bad things happen below the 150.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And this applies to all stocks, by the way, not just Tesla.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: It applies to everything.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: And that's the beautiful thing.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: That's actually pretty simple.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: So you've got that purple line there and that would be your real kind of what the heck are you doing here?
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Kind of an exit.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So that's item number three at the.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: This line is the 150-day moving average line.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Now, say you didn't know those things, or say you did know them and you ignored them, which actually makes you quite normal, it makes you human, it makes you like everybody else, like fallible.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean we can't get better at it, but it's kind of where most people are.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So you're still in it.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: It's trading at $222.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Well, I would sort of look at this as you're below the 200-day moving average line.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: If you think it's a good stock that you hold and that's of course something.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: If you're in a plug or something, then maybe this is a different story.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: How often are we below the 200-day moving average line, say, in the last two years?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Let me just highlight that for you.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: So it was a little bit there, a little bit here, fair bit actually here, all of that bit here.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Tesla is a pretty volatile company, as you can see here, there and now here.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: But can you also see what I've done here is I've pretty much drawn a line across the chart and if I were to buy below that line, I'd be buying, not at the top.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: You're excluding where everybody else buys.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Most people buy up here, right, and that's painful.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So if you're below the 200-day moving average and you've got a multi-year time horizon, you don't need the money anytime soon.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It might just be good to sit on your hands.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: But that isn't my first go-to strategy.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: That's just sort of a coping mechanism of having this rule number one, two and three.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Now maybe you again think this is a little too hard to come up with.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Well, with a trend indicator, they give you a sell signal.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Up here you saw that 421.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: That was a pretty good call and it's very, very close to the line that I drew in there.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Remember that line that I drew in there?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Remember that line that I drew in here?
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Right, pretty much there.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So again, trade vision might be helpful.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Get yourself a trial for it, that might be helpful.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: But that's essentially how I would look at all stocks right now and all stocks forever after, and once you really internalize that, it makes a heck of a lot more sense.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Matt, support isn't working.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: My friend, it's back.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: It was out yesterday for a couple of hours, but it's back.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: It's back.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If it isn't on your end, just refresh, maybe clear the cache or something, but it should be back for everybody as well.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So who's going to go and learn those rules?
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Let me know that in the chat down below, but let me first share with you what happens if this gets a lot worse.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So the stock market has these rules.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: They call them circuit breakers.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: They try to prevent a panic from getting spiraling out of control.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So if the benchmark for the S&P dropped 7% before 3.25 PM, they stopped trading for 15 minutes, and then, if it drops some more, they also stopped trading before 3.25.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: And otherwise, if it happens after 3.25, you actually need a 20% drop.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: It's a huge, huge, huge, huge, huge drop.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Right, but that's actually required here for stocks to get up there.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: They're trading halted, so is that going to be helpful?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Probably not, because generally speaking, that actually freaks people out.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: But I just wanted to make sure you're aware of these rules, because it might happen, and you saw some pretty crazy movements yesterday right Fox there, my friend, thanks very much for putting that link in there.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I'll pin it to the chat as well so it's easier for you guys to access, so you can just click on it.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I know typing can be a little tedious, but, yeah, who's going to go and actually use this as a kick up the backside and learn the rules?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Who's going to actually go and learn and watch the master class right now or straight after?