Latest / Look Forward / Digital Euro: Strategic Autonomy, Bank Deposit Risk, and What a Retail CBDC Really Means | Look Forward Ep. 27

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Digital Euro: Strategic Autonomy, Bank Deposit Risk, and What a Retail CBDC Really Means | Look Forward Ep. 27 · Look Forward

• 0:05
  Hello and welcome to the Look Forward Podcast from s and p Global.
• 0:09
  I'm Aries Poon from Market Intelligence Division.
• 0:12
  I'm leading the analysis team for Asia Pacific and Latin America,
• 0:16
  and I'll be your host today.
• 0:19
  In today's rapidly shifting markets success depends on
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  anticipating what's next.
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  The professionals who excel are those who can spot emerging trends
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  before they fully materialize.
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  tomorrow's challenges and opportunities.
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  Bringing cutting edge research on long-term trends and transformative
• 1:03
  market shifts together, we are committed to providing you the
• 1:07
  forward-looking intelligence you need to navigate uncertainty with confidence.
• 1:12
  Today we are diving into one of the closely watched.
• 1:15
  Developments in European finance, which is the digital Euro, the
• 1:19
  European Central bank, has officially moved into the preparation phase, and
• 1:23
  political momentum is clearly building.
• 1:26
  If everything stays on track, the digital Euro could make its way into
• 1:30
  people's wallet before the decade is out.
• 1:33
  But what does it really mean for the economic block, for payments, for
• 1:37
  consumers, and for the banking system?
• 1:40
  To help unpack all of that, I'm joined by two colleagues who
• 1:44
  have published on the topic.
• 1:46
  First, we have Chihan Duran from the ratings division, who has analyzed the
• 1:51
  likely banking sector impact and potential deposit outflows from a digital euro.
• 1:56
  And we have Shuchita Shukla from the Market Intelligence Division whose
• 2:01
  research has tackled political, economic, and financial stability
• 2:05
  implications across both Euro area and the non Euro area markets.
• 2:11
  Han sh, great to have both of you here.
• 2:15
  Hello.
• 2:15
  Thank you for having us.
• 2:17
  So I want to start with the big picture.
• 2:19
  What is the digital euro and why we are talking about it now?
• 2:23
  Shu, your research emphasizes the political momentum
• 2:27
  behind the digital Euro.
• 2:29
  Can you walk us through what this project is and what is driving it?
• 2:33
  Thank you, Aries, for your question.
• 2:34
  Um, so starting with what the digital Euro is, it is essentially the
• 2:39
  European Union's Central Bank digital currency, or CBDC in the making.
• 2:43
  And as the name suggests, it is going to be issued by the European Central
• 2:48
  Bank for circulation in the Euro area.
• 2:51
  Now the European Parliament will first need to approve the legal framework
• 2:55
  required for the ECB to be able to launch the digital Euro, and there has been
• 3:00
  increased enthusiasm recently in obtaining this final approval to be able to adopt
• 3:06
  the package by the end of this year.
• 3:08
  In our assessment, there are a couple of factors that are
• 3:11
  driving this sense of urgency.
• 3:13
  First is that we see it as part of the broader EU poly policy prioritization
• 3:19
  for strengthening Europe's strategic autonomy amid fraying Global Alliances
• 3:24
  and being able to withstand the potential technological threats from non-EU payment
• 3:30
  solutions that are dominant in Europe like MasterCard or Visa or PayPal are
• 3:35
  being seen as part of that objective.
• 3:38
  And by framing the Digital Euro initiative in these terms, we think that it is
• 3:42
  actually likely to facilitate its passage by gaining support from Europe's
• 3:47
  nationalist parties that have historically opposed the initiative, but that have
• 3:52
  recently extended calls to assert Europe's sovereignty and autonomy following
• 3:57
  the recent dispute over Greenland.
• 3:59
  And the second factor that is accelerating the eus push for its own CBDC is
• 4:06
  the intensifying global competition in the digital payments landscape.
• 4:10
  There are currently heightened concerns in Europe that the growing use of
• 4:15
  dollar denominated stable coins is going to diminish the Euro's role in
• 4:19
  international payments and settlements.
• 4:21
  And more generally, the EU does not want to be left on the
• 4:25
  outside of the modern monetary infrastructure where these instrument.
• 4:29
  And payment facilities are going to be core features.
• 4:33
  So what we have seen over the past 12 months from EU institutions is
• 4:38
  increasing intergovernmental commitment and alignment to favor the digital Euro.
• 4:44
  With the previous opposition regarding threats to, uh, digital privacy or
• 4:50
  cybersecurity, uh, being deemed of a lower priority than the strategic
• 4:55
  competitiveness goals, and as a result of that, what we are likely
• 4:59
  to see from the ongoing negotiations.
• 5:02
  Is a potential offers of additional design adjustments to strengthen,
• 5:07
  uh, digital priv, uh, pri privacy or financial stability in order to be
• 5:12
  able to obtain that final approval and reach operational readiness by 2029,
• 5:17
  according to the current ECB timeline.
• 5:21
  Thanks you and Han from the ratings angle.
• 5:24
  Do these geopolitical and strategic autonomy arguments line up with what
• 5:29
  you're seeing on the banking side.
• 5:31
  Um, anything you would like to nuance or push back on?
• 5:35
  Yeah, sure.
• 5:35
  Thank you Aris.
• 5:36
  Um, I would maybe start with saying that, uh, payments is
• 5:40
  absolutely critical in an economy.
• 5:43
  Um, and that's why the ECB is taking this project very seriously and it has it.
• 5:49
  The current narrative behind it, right?
• 5:51
  So if you look at what, um, what you just said with geopolitics, um,
• 5:55
  reliance on US payment providers, then the whole stablecoin momentum.
• 6:01
  So everything is lined up for the ECB to really push this project forward.
• 6:06
  Um, and they will, uh, if you look at, um, strategy and the communication,
• 6:10
  they're absolutely committed.
• 6:11
  Uh, and that's.
• 6:12
  Let's say not comparable to other countries where the central banks
• 6:16
  and other countries are not really committed or don't want it at all.
• 6:20
  Um, and so the ECB is one of the few central banks, maybe even the only
• 6:25
  one in the western, uh, economies, to really push this project.
• 6:29
  And, um, as you said, it'll come in a few years time, um, from
• 6:33
  the banking sector's perspective.
• 6:36
  The whole project is seen a bit more critical, um, in a negative
• 6:40
  way because it's competition to their payment solutions.
• 6:45
  Um, so having a sort of public sector solution for payments is
• 6:50
  something that has not been there yet.
• 6:52
  Um, you could argue that.
• 6:53
  Cash is Central Bank money, but with A-C-B-D-C, um, you have potential
• 6:59
  competition to the usual payment systems of banks and maybe even deposits.
• 7:05
  And so, um.
• 7:07
  From a strategic perspective, it fits very well considering the current dynamics
• 7:11
  in the world and the uncertainties.
• 7:13
  But, um, when you think about private sector, um, interests and competition
• 7:19
  and inno innovation, it, there might be some disagreements from banks, uh,
• 7:24
  to not really push with the projects.
• 7:27
  Um, yeah, I would maybe summarize like that.
• 7:29
  Thank you.
• 7:31
  Thanks Chihan, and that's great.
• 7:33
  So let's move on to the design itself.
• 7:36
  Uhhu, your analysis breaks down some of the core features of the digital
• 7:40
  Euro, and for listeners who might be confused by some of the jargon.
• 7:44
  So can you just tell us what would the Digital Euro enable in practice
• 7:48
  and what are the benefits to it?
• 7:51
  Sure.
• 7:52
  So simply put, the digital Euro is designed to be an electronic version
• 7:58
  of the physical euro, which means that anyone in the Euro area will be able to
• 8:02
  use the digital Euro to make payments and transfers just like they use cash today.
• 8:08
  And these will be accessible via dedicated digital wallets.
• 8:13
  They will be free to use and payments will go through EV even without
• 8:17
  needing, needing internet connection.
• 8:20
  Now you will not earn any interest rate on the digital euros that you hold and how
• 8:25
  much digital euros you can hold is going to be capped by the ECB at about 3000
• 8:31
  to 4,000 euros limit, depending on what is decided in the ongoing negotiations.
• 8:36
  So in technical terms, this is what we call a retail CBDC with a purely payments
• 8:41
  function, and we think that the benefits of it for the public are going to be
• 8:47
  rather limited for a couple of reasons.
• 8:49
  First is that we are not convinced that the uptake of digital euro is going
• 8:54
  to be widespread in the EU because.
• 8:57
  In its current design, it's not really more attractive than
• 9:00
  a traditional bank deposit.
• 9:02
  And because cash is still, generally speaking, preferred in the EU to make
• 9:07
  in-person purchases of smaller values.
• 9:10
  Um, and this, this low adoption rate would also mirror the experience
• 9:15
  of some of the other countries that have already circulated cbdc
• 9:19
  like Nigeria and like The Bahamas.
• 9:22
  And the second reason is that.
• 9:24
  Existing European payment solutions.
• 9:27
  Like Gihan mentioned, the private sector solutions are already doing
• 9:31
  what the digital Euro aims to do, which is to make pan EU payments
• 9:36
  easy, instant, and cashless.
• 9:39
  So, for instance, the single Euro payments area or SE.
• 9:43
  Um, has harmonized payment systems in such a way that one can use a single card or
• 9:48
  a payment account to, uh, make payments in 41 countries, including the whole eu,
• 9:55
  but also countries outside of the eu.
• 9:57
  And the European Payments Initiative, which is a banking sector led
• 10:02
  solution, builds on SEPA to enable real time cross border payments.
• 10:07
  There are several other private sector solutions that I could list as examples.
• 10:11
  Um, some of them also enable commercial use and all of that means
• 10:16
  that the additional benefit from having the digital euro is limited.
• 10:20
  But where we do see benefits is in the potential wholesale application
• 10:25
  of the digital Euro that is for interbank and securities transactions.
• 10:31
  Where the safety afforded by having a central bank backed instrument is crucial,
• 10:36
  and which can foster innovation in the private sector by prompting the European
• 10:42
  banks to upgrade their infrastructure for digital deposits and for tokenized
• 10:47
  payments in a more broad based manner.
• 10:50
  Thank you.
• 10:50
  I'll leave it there.
• 10:52
  Yeah.
• 10:52
  In fact, uh, it's very interesting because, um, what she was just saying
• 10:56
  about, uh, digital euro not paying interest and has a holding cap.
• 11:00
  Uh, it also appears in Han's research and, you know, framing that as
• 11:04
  digital euro may not offer many advantages of a plane bank deposit.
• 11:09
  So, Gian, I want to come to you is, so where do you see the alignment and
• 11:14
  where my adoption might be weaker than.
• 11:16
  Policy makers hope based on the design of the digital Euro?
• 11:21
  Yeah, that's a good question.
• 11:22
  Um, it's very tough to convince Eurozone citizens why a retail CBDC
• 11:30
  um, makes sense if you think about it.
• 11:32
  And if you look at payments, um, at the moment.
• 11:36
  That's not really a big issue for the user.
• 11:38
  So you either use, um, your traditional bank account for sending money, peer to
• 11:44
  peer, or use PayPal for peer to peer.
• 11:47
  Um, you use payment at point of sales with Visa masks.
• 11:50
  So as a user you're not really convinced.
• 11:53
  Uh, and, and the user usually doesn't see the point of reliance
• 11:58
  on US players 'cause so far so good.
• 12:00
  Nothing has really happened from that perspective.
• 12:02
  Um.
• 12:04
  The ECB was thinking more, um, for the long term, and it clearly
• 12:08
  says we need strategic autonomy.
• 12:10
  And so, um, convincing people and citizens, it's quite tough and
• 12:14
  particularly in some countries like Germany and Austria, where
• 12:18
  the views are more skeptical, um, where cash is more preferred.
• 12:22
  If you look at the data and, uh, what Shu said, uh, um, cash
• 12:25
  payments is still for small.
• 12:28
  Uh, purchases at the preferred, um, type of payment.
• 12:33
  Um, but yeah.
• 12:34
  Um, the ECB wants to prepare for a future of digital payments and the CBDC or the
• 12:39
  digital Euro is one solution to make, um, the, uh, Eurozone, uh, less reliant on US
• 12:46
  players and, and prepare for the future.
• 12:49
  Um.
• 12:50
  What's crucial and, and that's in the mandate of DECB as well, is
• 12:53
  to maintain financial stability.
• 12:55
  And I just want to repeat what Sue said.
• 12:57
  This, um, zero remuneration of CBDC is crucial.
• 13:02
  You don't want to, um, have CBDC as competition to deposits.
• 13:08
  'cause ultimately that could lead to competition to deposits,
• 13:11
  meaning citizens would.
• 13:12
  Transfer the money from banks to a central bank and ultimately you'll have an impact
• 13:18
  on lending and, and, um, the transmission of, uh, money to, to the private sector.
• 13:24
  That's, that's a problem if that happens.
• 13:25
  So, uh, in all its communication, DCB made clear so far, there will
• 13:29
  be no remuneration of S-C-B-D-C.
• 13:32
  And it will not replace cash.
• 13:34
  It'll be not competitive to deposits, but still banks are quite skeptical.
• 13:39
  Um, and they see it as a competition.
• 13:41
  And as you're right, we said Aris, uh, we did some research on on that.
• 13:44
  And I, I'd be happy to, um, uh, talk about this, uh, in we
• 13:48
  figures, if you want later on.
• 13:51
  That's great.
• 13:52
  Um, I, I guess let's now turn to what many listeners will also care about is the
• 13:57
  impact on banks and financial stability, which Chihan you actually just alluded to.
• 14:02
  So let's expand on that a little bit because your research did highlight, um,
• 14:07
  possible deposit migration into digital.
• 14:09
  Digital Euro wallets and also the potential acceleration of digital run
• 14:14
  dynamics during periods of stress.
• 14:17
  So can you walk us through your key findings and how should
• 14:20
  banks be thinking about this?
• 14:22
  Yeah, sure.
• 14:23
  Um, so what we did is a bottom up analysis and looked into Eurozone
• 14:29
  countries, um, by now 21 with Bulgaria re uh, recently joining the Eurozone.
• 14:35
  Um, and we looked into, um.
• 14:37
  A few factors.
• 14:38
  The first one is how does demographic, um, impact the sort of payment behavior?
• 14:45
  And what we looked at is, um, a cohort between 15 and 64 years old people and how
• 14:51
  they are distributed in the countries and what it could mean for digital payments.
• 14:56
  Um, that's the first factor.
• 14:57
  Demographics, um, the second one, um, it's.
• 15:01
  The sort of national digital preferences, we called it like that because depending
• 15:05
  on where you are located, your preferences for payment is significantly different.
• 15:10
  So coming back to the example of Germany, almost half uh, or even more
• 15:14
  of the citizens use cash for the.
• 15:16
  Daily payments.
• 15:18
  If you go to Finland or uh, any other Nordic countries, um, you won't have
• 15:22
  this high amount of cash payments.
• 15:24
  So it's significantly less so the sort of digital preferences we also
• 15:28
  took into account in our analysis.
• 15:30
  Um, the third one, what we looked at is, um, banking sector stability.
• 15:36
  If you look for example, at the, um, uh, Eurozone crisis a decade ago,
• 15:41
  you can argue that citizens, they trust certain banks more than others.
• 15:46
  And citizens in certain countries, they trust the system more than in others,
• 15:50
  considering the crisis episodes and more.
• 15:52
  And so based on our in-house analysis of banking sector risks, we also made the
• 15:57
  assumption, um, how would the CBDC be a success in certain countries and how
• 16:02
  it would not, for example, in countries where the banking sector risk is
• 16:06
  higher, citizens might accept A-C-B-D-C.
• 16:10
  More than in countries where the banking sector has been always stable.
• 16:14
  'cause you trust the bank.
• 16:15
  You don't need essential bank as an intermediary for your cash holdings.
• 16:19
  And so if you, if you sum this factors up, um, we, um, end up with a few
• 16:24
  figures and, um, we think that if A-C-B-D-C goes live in, let's say
• 16:30
  four years, the uptake won't be large.
• 16:33
  It'll not be impactful.
• 16:35
  We think that.
• 16:36
  Based on that estimate that about 25 to 100 billion euros might move to
• 16:42
  A-C-B-D-C with a wallet cap of 3000 euros.
• 16:45
  That's what, um, Shu said earlier with this wallet cap is very important.
• 16:49
  Um, and if you have this, uh, transfers of money and put it as
• 16:53
  percentage of deposits, it's not large.
• 16:55
  It's only.
• 16:56
  4.5 to 2% of, uh, bank deposits.
• 17:00
  That's not significant.
• 17:01
  So it's not a financial stability risks in our view.
• 17:06
  Um, but at the end it really depends on the parameters and the design of the CBDC.
• 17:11
  So again, the wallet cap of it to 4,000 euros that you mentioned.
• 17:16
  It's extremely important to have the wallet caps.
• 17:18
  Otherwise, as a. User and client of a bank, you might get incentives
• 17:25
  to move your money to central bank money, which is a hundred percent
• 17:28
  secure and guaranteed, right?
• 17:30
  So you want to have, um, certain design features that limits this risk.
• 17:36
  So at the end, um, we, we conclude that, um, uh, the uptake
• 17:41
  of A-C-B-D-C won't be large.
• 17:43
  And it will not hurt banking sector and that's all of you.
• 17:46
  But we know from, from discussions with banks, they sort of disagree with this.
• 17:50
  Um, and, uh, let's see, uh, whether more data and then the future
• 17:55
  will show, um, anything else.
• 17:57
  Um, and I will stop maybe with that conclusion.
• 18:01
  I am curious, um, what, what did the banks disagree about?
• 18:05
  What are the things they do not agree?
• 18:08
  Um, so I think it starts with the costs.
• 18:11
  So one factor at the moment is really, um, is it beneficial to
• 18:16
  release A-C-B-D-C considering the costs of the infrastructure?
• 18:20
  And if you look at, um.
• 18:22
  Uh, data from the European Commission, you will find something
• 18:25
  around three to 6 billion euros.
• 18:28
  But if you then look at private sector estimates, it goes
• 18:30
  more to 20 billion euros.
• 18:32
  So huge range, right?
• 18:33
  And somebody has to pay this.
• 18:35
  Um, and the banks, uh, would need to pay this, uh, infrastructure costs.
• 18:39
  So that's one factor.
• 18:41
  Um, the other factors, as we said earlier today, um, the use case
• 18:45
  of A-C-B-D-C is not really clear.
• 18:47
  Um, why would you need A-C-B-D-C?
• 18:49
  And it's really tough to convince, um, the citizens in the Eurozone to use A-C-B-D-C.
• 18:56
  And that's actually one argument I would or we would support.
• 18:59
  'cause we, the use case, it's not really clear.
• 19:02
  You have already solutions.
• 19:04
  Um, I. And, um, the other factor I would see is also that the ECB globally is one
• 19:13
  of the few, or maybe the only central bank, um, on a large scale that is
• 19:18
  really, that is, um, going live with CBDC.
• 19:21
  So, uh, you may know that in the United States it's, um, forbidden by
• 19:24
  law under the current administration, A-C-B-D-C is not allowed, um, in
• 19:30
  other jurisdiction like China.
• 19:32
  Um, it's.
• 19:33
  They have released A-C-B-D-C by, but by now it's not A-C-B-D-C anymore.
• 19:38
  It's traditional, um, bank money because the banks in China, they
• 19:43
  are giving interest on the C BDCs.
• 19:46
  They on that form of CBDC, it's on the balance sheet of banks.
• 19:50
  So it's significantly different than what we would see as A-C-B-D-C.
• 19:53
  So, um, having.
• 19:55
  Having you alone as central Bank globally to really pushing for it.
• 19:59
  It's, it's quite toughing.
• 20:01
  I'm not ing sure where you have also other points, uh, to add.
• 20:05
  Yeah, thanks.
• 20:06
  Um, in fact, uh, yeah, it's good to go Tohu because, um, her research also
• 20:10
  brings in an additional dimension, which is about the impact of the digital
• 20:15
  Euro on non Euro EU banking systems and the safeguards being discussed
• 20:20
  to prevent destabilizing outflows.
• 20:23
  So can you talk us, um, through some of the key insights there in relation
• 20:27
  to what Han was, um, talking about?
• 20:31
  Yeah.
• 20:31
  Um, so in the central and Eastern European non euro banking sectors of
• 20:38
  the eu, that is in Czechia Hungary, Poland, and Romania, there is this fear
• 20:44
  that the digital Euro will act as a euro denominated asset that is safer
• 20:51
  than the traditional Euro denominated savings, which the households are
• 20:55
  currently, um, holding with the local banks because the digital euro is.
• 21:00
  Directly backed by the ECB and that this will make the local banking sectors
• 21:06
  more susceptible to deposit outflows than their Eurozone counterparts,
• 21:11
  especially in times of financial stress.
• 21:14
  Um, now if you look at the numbers, the foreign currency savings make
• 21:18
  up about 6% on average of the total deposits in these local markets, most
• 21:23
  of which are denominated in the Euros.
• 21:25
  But this share can go as high as 35% in Romania.
• 21:30
  And this makes it a very significant part of the foreign currency, um, flows for
• 21:37
  these banking sectors at cheap costs.
• 21:39
  Right?
• 21:40
  Um, so the risk of destabilizing outflows is mitigated in the digital
• 21:46
  Euro plan itself with some of the safeguards that Gihan already mentioned.
• 21:51
  Not having interest rates is crucial because that dis
• 21:55
  that disincentivizes the um.
• 21:58
  Uh, savers to put their money in these wallets.
• 22:02
  Um, and the second one being the cap on your, um, holdings means that there's a
• 22:09
  limit on how much CBDC one can accumulate.
• 22:13
  Um, and on top of that, uh, the, the factor that actually limits
• 22:18
  this risk quite a lot is that.
• 22:20
  The access to digital euros is not going to be as automatic in the non Europe
• 22:25
  parts of the EU as it is going to be in the Euro area with the domestic
• 22:30
  institutions in these countries, um, including the National Central Bank
• 22:35
  setting preconditions on who can have a digital wallet and for how long.
• 22:39
  So if you put all of that together, I think the, the risk of destabilization
• 22:44
  in these markets is quite low, and it is designed to be that way by the ECB.
• 22:50
  So we are coming up to time and I want to end with a quick lightning round.
• 22:54
  Shu and Han, if there is one misconception about a digital
• 22:58
  Euro that you wish the public understood better, what would it be?
• 23:03
  So I'll go first.
• 23:05
  Um, for me, I think a big misconception is that the digital euro is going to
• 23:11
  replace cash and the sphere is quite high in, you know, parts of Euro area where
• 23:16
  cash is really preferred, like Chihan mentioned, Germany, Austria, et cetera.
• 23:21
  Um, and that's just wrong.
• 23:23
  Based on both the conception and the design of the digital Euro, it is
• 23:28
  meant to coexist with the existing private sector solutions and also
• 23:33
  with Euro bank notes and coins.
• 23:36
  Um, in fact, in the legislative package that is current, currently
• 23:40
  awaiting approval, there are explicit proposals to vote protect.
• 23:45
  And strengthen both the access and the availability of cash in the Euro area in
• 23:50
  order to safeguard it as a legal tender and to ensure financial inclusion of the
• 23:56
  vulnerable groups of society, like older cohorts that rely more on cash payments.
• 24:04
  Yeah, I would, I would just, uh, support this as number one, which is true.
• 24:09
  Said, this is the biggest misconception.
• 24:11
  Um, the second.
• 24:12
  Biggest one I would see is this fear that the government could shut,
• 24:17
  shut down your accounts if it wants.
• 24:19
  So the sort of programmable finance feature that that ECB has
• 24:23
  always denied will not happen.
• 24:25
  So the central bank, um, will not be in a position to close digital wallets.
• 24:31
  Uh, if you have CBDC on that wallet, it's um, something that is a misconception
• 24:36
  in the public and where the fear in some countries is quite high that.
• 24:39
  Privacy issues and oh gosh, the government could do something with my money if it
• 24:44
  wants, that's, that's not going to happen.
• 24:46
  That's a big misconception I would say.
• 24:49
  Thank you and fantastic insights from both of you.
• 24:52
  Thank you, sh and Han.
• 24:54
  Uh, what is clear is that the digital euro is politically here to stay and has
• 24:59
  been designed with deliberate caution and its effects will play out slowly
• 25:03
  over time, not in a certain shift.
• 25:06
  If you would like to.
• 25:07
  Dive deeper into our research and our blog post.
• 25:10
  Visit sp global.com and explore our look forward council resources.
• 25:15
  You can also connect with today's speakers on LinkedIn.
• 25:18
  Thank you so much for listening to the Look Forward Podcast.
• 25:21
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• 25:26
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