How Import Prices From China Are Distorting the Feds Inflation Picture

The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy · Jul 18, 2026 · 7m · transcript

China's import prices just hit their highest level since 2008, even as wholesale prices in the U.S. are falling. Lucas and Luna unpack why the Fed can't ignore this contradiction: when cheap Chinese goods get more expensive, the disinflationary force that helped cool core goods inflation for two years starts to reverse. They walk through the June PPI data, the 10-year breakeven rate ticking up to 2.24 percent, and what it means for the rate path through year-end. If you've wondered why the FOMC seems stuck at 3.63 percent despite good CPI numbers, this is the missing puzzle…