Latest / Football Junkies podcast / Episode 12: Cut the check

Transcript

Episode 12: Cut the check · Football Junkies podcast

• 0:00
  Bag alert bag alert bag alert bag alert bag alert folks. That's right Trevor Lawrence got paid. I
• 0:07
  Don't know how to really feel about this, but we'll just have to figure it out speak
• 0:18
  You know I need to go to the store I need to go to the store give me a football
• 0:22
  See if I can start throwing some 50 and 60 yard bottles
• 0:24
  Maybe I can try to make it to the NFL get one good contract just leave
• 0:28
  I don't know we'll figure it out, but
• 0:30
  We'll gotta you know we got to talk about you know if he was you know overpaid or underpaid
• 0:35
  How does this affect future quarterback?
• 0:38
  Contracts it has the quarterback market gotten out of hand all of this and more on the 12th episode bonus episode to be honest with you
• 0:45
  You in two episodes in one week. That's crazy, right? I know on the 12th episode of the football junkies podcast
• 0:53
  I'm your host Kale your GM who is still scouting three years in advance
• 0:59
  Even though guess what he's still not on the team. Let's get it
• 1:04
  Alright folks, so I'm going to try to be as professional as I possibly can but I
• 1:11
  You just have to laugh at this. You just have to because ain't no way
• 1:16
  Ain't no way you mean to tell me that
• 1:20
  you can be
• 1:22
  Average to a little bit above average
• 1:28
  Never seen him before but hey, well whoever their agents are I need you guys to represent me
• 1:34
  Okay, because there's no way that this happened, but it happens. So we have to talk about it
• 1:41
  So if you guys don't know
• 1:43
  Trevor Lawrence quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars ain't a five-year extension with them, right?
• 1:50
  five years 275 million with a 37 million dollar signing bonus
• 1:55
  200 million guarantee he'll be making 55 million a year
• 2:00
  142 million will be guaranteed at signing and 200 million in total guarantees according to spot right now
• 2:10
  Before we you know get into the opinions and whatnot. Let's look at the stats as well. Okay, so according to CBS Sports
• 2:16
  Trevor Lawrence is fifth all-time in most passing yards in the first three seasons at
• 2:22
  11,770 yards. He is third all-time in quick passes since entering the league at
• 2:30
  5,483 yards according to next-gen stats. He has had three
• 2:34
  1,000 plus passing yard seasons according to ESPN 2021. He had
• 2:40
  3,641 yards, excuse me 2022 he had
• 2:43
  4,113 passing yards and then in 2023 he had
• 2:50
  4,016 passing yards and
• 2:54
  right he had a passive rating of
• 2:57
  71.9 in 2021
• 2:59
  95.2 in 2022 and 88.5 in 2023 and
• 3:04
  he's had two years of
• 3:06
  20 plus touchdown season in both 2022 and 2023 according to ESPN, right?
• 3:14
  Now when you look at these when you read off of these stats, it's like wow
• 3:18
  He sounds like an elite quarterback that's you know doing a whole lot of whatnot. Yes, that is true
• 3:23
  That is true. Trevor Lawrence, you know is definitely
• 3:27
  Up there, you know with quarterbacks. However
• 3:31
  You know
• 3:32
  When you pay it when you pay any player, especially quarterbacks this this a type of amount of money
• 3:38
  What happens is it puts the team in a chokehold
• 3:43
  because
• 3:44
  The team is no longer it makes the team harder to you know to build around you, right?
• 3:50
  When you look at
• 3:52
  The Patriots dynasty for for for instance, Tom Brady always took less because why he wanted to be surrounded with talent, right?
• 4:01
  And so
• 4:03
  When you are building a team
• 4:06
  Most times you're gonna have to take less you're gonna have to sacrifice a little bit simply because if you want to bring in, you know
• 4:14
  Top comp, you know a top player
• 4:17
  You're gonna have to you're gonna have to compensate them in some way
• 4:20
  Especially when you make a trade or you sign somebody for your agency, whatever the case may be
• 4:25
  You're gonna have to you know
• 4:27
  Some something's gonna have to get cut something right and so, you know paying paying a player
• 4:35
  55 million
• 4:37
  Definitely puts the team in a chokehold and you know per example with Joe Burrow, right?
• 4:42
  People think oh, you know the bangles did the right thing and sign a Joe Burrow which they did
• 4:46
  But it's the amount of money that they signed him to right because when you look at it right now
• 4:52
  They're in a situation where they have to pay both to Marge's and T. Heckins and if we're being real here to Marge's
• 5:01
  That's the number one receiver. So he's gonna want top dollar money same thing with T. Heckins
• 5:06
  They just let go of Joe mixing
• 5:09
  So they they've had to you know figure out and they've they've tried to you know
• 5:14
  trim the fat a little bit just to figure out exactly how in the world are they going to you know be able to
• 5:20
  Try to build a team around Joe Burrow
• 5:23
  That's what it boils down to right when you if you want a team to be able to make a playoff run and eventually when a Super Bowl
• 5:31
  You have to be able to you know
• 5:35
  Recognize that okay certain positions you are going to invest into and then other positions
• 5:40
  Whereas the quarterback you may want to pay them less because if you pay them less
• 5:44
  That gives you the freedom to bring in anybody that you think could play a major role on the team
• 5:52
  Right when you and that's why a lot of you know a lot of GM's
• 5:57
  You know believe in the notion that when you get a rookie quarterback
• 6:01
  That's the perfect time to build you know to build around them because you don't have to pay them for five years, right?
• 6:08
  Five years you don't even have to have a conversation about them about money at all for five years almost six years
• 6:15
  if you franchise tag them right and so
• 6:18
  You know I say all that to say this you know and I have to think about this I have to think about it
• 6:24
  I had to sleep on it honestly
• 6:27
  You know I was like you know what did they overpay him did not overpay him did they did they do a little bit too much?
• 6:33
  They overpaid it they overpaid they overpaid him by a mile because there is no way in the hell that
• 6:41
  Trevor Lawrence should be making 55 million now if it's 50 million 51 million if it's around the same of like Lamar or Jaylen Hertz
• 6:48
  But to say that you are going to be tied with Joe Burrow as you know as the highest paid
• 6:55
  Quarterback that's just outrageous because when you look at the highest paid quarterbacks according to CBS Sports via Spotrack
• 7:01
  They're they're tied. Okay, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow tied as the highest paid quarterbacks right now
• 7:06
  Under them you have Jurg off at 53 million Justin Herbert 52.5 million Lamar Jackson 52 million Jaylen Hertz 51 million
• 7:15
  Kyla Murray 46.1 million to Sean Watson 46 million Kirk Cousins 45 millions and Patrick Mahomes 45 million
• 7:23
  Patrick Mahomes
• 7:24
  Super Bowl winning champion
• 7:27
  Patrick Mahomes is making 45 million a year
• 7:30
  Right. He still got his money
• 7:33
  But he but he left enough money to where if they need to go and then and they need to get another receiver
• 7:40
  If they need to get another offense alignment a tackle a running back
• 7:45
  Middle linebacker whatever the case may be they have the they have the funds to do that
• 7:49
  That's how you continue to win. That's how you continue to be competitive
• 7:55
  It's not when you just overpay for your quarterback and then try to figure out how you're gonna do everything else
• 8:01
  It's not how it works. Okay
• 8:04
  And it's gonna show it's gonna show you
• 8:07
  People are not going to see the effects of this contract now because it's fresh
• 8:12
  Give it three years
• 8:14
  We'll have a different conversation, right?
• 8:17
  Because and and even then even when you when you break down the the playoff records for some of the highest paid
• 8:23
  You know quarterbacks
• 8:26
  Patrick Mahomes is the only one with a winning
• 8:29
  Playoff record at 15 and 3. Okay, Kirk Cousins playoff record 1 and 3
• 8:35
  Dashaun Watson's 1 and 2 Kyler Murray's
• 8:38
  You know one loss Jalen Hertz 2 and 3 Lamar Jackson 2 and 4 Justin Herbert
• 8:45
  1 loss Jared golf 4 and 4
• 8:47
  Um Joe Burrow 5 and 2 and Trevor Lawrence 1 and 1 right and so I say all that to say this
• 8:54
  You know when you are paying these quarterbacks you have to factor in everything
• 8:59
  Because if you don't you're gonna put yourself in a hole and then you know once once you're too deep in the contract where
• 9:07
  The cap hits are you know
• 9:09
  A gregis and you're unable to really make any moves and you're basically put in this chokehold type of situation because
• 9:17
  There can be a situation. I know I've said it multiple times
• 9:21
  But I want I want you to understand and I want to emphasize the importance of not paying a quarterback
• 9:29
  you know
• 9:30
  Almost record-breaking, you know money because there's gonna reach a point in the season, right?
• 9:36
  Where somebody might be hurt and there is an opening, you know and there could be a player that's basically saying, you know
• 9:42
  I want out. I want to go somewhere else and you can get them for the low for the low low without having to
• 9:49
  Give up, you know a first-round pick and two players and
• 9:53
  compensatory picks and whatnot
• 9:55
  Can't do it if you have a quarterback who's cap hit, you know, well not even cap it
• 10:00
  But who's making 55 million a year can't do that. Can you know you can't so you know
• 10:05
  It's a it's gonna be frustrating. It really is but
• 10:10
  You know, this is the decision that the Jaguars made until now
• 10:13
  They basically made their bed and now they must lay in it now
• 10:17
  Transitioning over to the next topic, right when you look at, you know, these these these quarterback contracts, right?
• 10:25
  Especially this contract this contract is directly going to affect
• 10:30
  The the upcoming contracts are supposed to be happening for the quarterbacks, right?
• 10:35
  Because when you break it down, right the future
• 10:38
  Free agent quarterbacks Jordan love dag presscott to it and Justin Fields, right?
• 10:43
  When you look at for instance Jordan loves his market value according to spot rack his market value is a four-year
• 10:52
  191.5 million dollar deal. He will be making 47.9 million a year. That's pretty good. That's pretty good
• 10:59
  That allows you to be able
• 11:03
  To go after, you know a key free agent that you've had your eye on
• 11:08
  To be able to re-sign a few other players that you want to stay with the team
• 11:12
  Whatever the case may be, right? And you know, even even even as we continue on with other
• 11:18
  You know free future free agent quarterbacks
• 11:21
  That that presscotts market value according to spot rack is a four-year
• 11:26
  203.5 million dollar deal. He'll be making 50.9 million a year
• 11:30
  Which you know, it is in that 50 million threshold
• 11:34
  But it's not you know, it's something that's a little bit more manageable
• 11:38
  If you know if you have a GM that can structure the contract correctly where basically, okay
• 11:43
  Yes, he gets his money but at the same time you're not breaking the bank, right?
• 11:47
  It still gives you a little bit a little bit of wiggle room to you know
• 11:51
  Bring in a few people if you need to make a few splash moves or free agency, whatever the case may be, right?
• 11:57
  We look at tool is market value tool is market value is four years
• 12:02
  198.5 million he'll be making forty nine point six million here. That's even better
• 12:08
  That's even better folks that 40 that that 49 to like 52 million dollar range
• 12:16
  That's the sweet spot because even then you can you can configure the contract to where
• 12:23
  Basically, you know for like the first two years is like where you're really seeing, you know
• 12:28
  Those crazy cap hits and those in those crazy numbers and then for the rest of the contract
• 12:33
  It's more easy. It's more manageable. It's more digestible
• 12:37
  And you know if the two if the quarterback wants to leave the team or if you want to you know land a
• 12:43
  Superstar guess what you can do it because why you have to leverage to do it with your cap
• 12:49
  When you look at Justin Fields market value, right?
• 12:52
  Four years
• 12:53
  179.5 million you'll be making forty four point nine million a year. That's really good
• 13:00
  That's really good. That is how you are able to continue to surround them
• 13:05
  Not only with talent but continue to keep the team competitive
• 13:09
  To a point where they can possibly make a playoff run and eventually maybe even make a Super Bowl run, right?
• 13:16
  I'm the reason why I'm saying the reason why I'm saying all this and the reason why I'm emphasizing
• 13:21
  quarterback contracts is because we have seen multiple times
• 13:24
  When a quarterback takes up a large majority of the cap space and they don't go anywhere and then you know when the quarterback, you know
• 13:33
  Public publicly goes and says, you know, I don't have any weapons. I need weapons, you know this and the other blah blah blah
• 13:40
  Well, you can't get you can't ask for weapons. Mr. Smartass if you got you know, if you're making, you know
• 13:48
  54 55 million a year you can't really do anything
• 13:51
  You just can't I'm sorry. You just cannot do it
• 13:54
  Case in point with for instance the Chargers, right?
• 13:57
  And I know this is probably crazy example
• 13:59
  But with with their with their whole situation after they gave Justin Herbert that deal in
• 14:05
  Some ways they had to break up the offense a little bit and they had to change how they did everything, right?
• 14:11
  And it wasn't only just because they brought a new head coach and you know different philosophies and different things of that nature
• 14:17
  But you had Kenan Allen who didn't want to take a pay cut
• 14:20
  You had Mike Williams who could not stay healthy and he had a large cap hit
• 14:24
  You had Joey Bolster that had a large cap hit during when James Khalil Mack
• 14:28
  You have multiple players on that team that had very large cap hit and you're not going to give it to Justin Herbert
• 14:35
  You can get rid of a Kenan Allen or Mike Williams. Unfortunately, and that's exactly what happened
• 14:39
  They let my they released Mike Williams. They trade away Kenan Allen to the Bears and
• 14:45
  Justin Herbert is there, you know with a
• 14:49
  Average to possibly above average receiving core, right? So I say all that to say this
• 14:55
  quarterback contracts can get very very very very very
• 15:01
  very very rocky
• 15:03
  Because one or two things are gonna happen either they're gonna overpay the quarterback and then it puts the entire team in a chokehold or
• 15:12
  They underpaid the quarterback, but they're basically telling him hey by us underpaying you
• 15:18
  It allows us to surround you with the talent that you need, right?
• 15:22
  And so, you know moving on to the to the next topic because I don't I don't want this
• 15:28
  I don't want this episode, you know to be longing and in drawing out and whatnot, but when you look at future quarterback contracts, right?
• 15:38
  The quarterback market is starting to get that reach that point where it's out of where it's gonna go, you know out of hand
• 15:44
  And I understand, you know, the league is making a lot of money
• 15:46
  They've recovered from the COVID years and whatnot and it shows, you know with with the with the cap calculations because
• 15:55
  Originally a lot of people were reporting that it wasn't going to be as much as you know as it was, you know
• 16:01
  Reporting but once they did see it and it's like oh, okay. That's when a lot of teams were like, okay
• 16:06
  We can start showing our money. We can start paying players because originally
• 16:11
  You know after after the after 2020
• 16:14
  There was a point where not not as many teams were willing to
• 16:20
  Really pay, you know a lot of players
• 16:23
  Simply because everybody was still recovering from COVID and then, you know, the numbers were down
• 16:29
  So that meant that the revenue for the league as a whole was down
• 16:32
  So it was a lot of mo it was multiple factors that played in, you know
• 16:36
  People not getting, you know crazy contracts, but now that we've you know past that phase
• 16:41
  And you have someone like Taylor Swift that's starting to you know bring her
• 16:47
  Her following over into the league that's gonna boost revenue and so was and so the trickle down effect is bigger contracts
• 16:55
  And it's show in this offseason alone, right now and and I've had this conversation
• 17:01
  With my friends, you know shout out, you know, shout out to everybody that you know
• 17:05
  That supports me and supports the podcast that it's gonna get someone is gonna hit the $60 million mark mark my words
• 17:13
  It may not happen this year, but I guarantee it. I
• 17:17
  Would not be surprised if next year's free agency market. Somebody hits that $60 million market
• 17:22
  Now do I know who it is? I wouldn't be surprised if it's deck. I just don't I would not be surprised
• 17:29
  simply because I think I think the dolphins are not gonna
• 17:34
  You know, they're not gonna really want to pay to I think they're gonna want to ride this season out and see if he can
• 17:40
  You know show another year of consistency and not you know being not being hurt
• 17:46
  Then they you know, then they'll probably you know, right, right and right to check
• 17:51
  But to say that they're gonna like go over leaps and bounds to pay him. No, they're not gonna do that
• 17:55
  Same thing with Justin Fields. I think he's not gonna he's gonna get paid, but he's not gonna get paid paid
• 18:00
  But I do think that is probably gonna be the only person
• 18:04
  That's really gonna get close to that $60 million range and even then I think the only teams
• 18:10
  I probably would do that our teams that are going through rebuild struggling and they're in a position where you know on the draft board
• 18:17
  Where they will not be able to get a high-end quarterback someone like a deck presscott
• 18:24
  But yeah, that's it
• 18:26
  It's a it's a weird situation and it's an I wouldn't say it's frustrating
• 18:32
  but it's just weird because
• 18:34
  We have seen the model of when when the quarterback takes less
• 18:38
  It allows the team to build around them and to you know keep them competitive
• 18:44
  and we've also seen the model of overpay the quarterback and
• 18:48
  You know, it basically just goes to shit, right?
• 18:52
  We have seen both models and you would think that you know quarterbacks would you know want to get paid
• 18:58
  But at the same time not break the bank, but it's clearly it shows otherwise and you know
• 19:05
  Nothing and that's you know, it's nothing against them because again, you you want to get paid
• 19:10
  This is probably gonna be
• 19:12
  Your only or your or your second to only chance of you know, really, you know getting a significant payday whatnot
• 19:19
  So not opposed to that but at the same time if you want to be able to win a championship
• 19:24
  And that's your goal that your dream within sacrifices are gonna have to be made
• 19:30
  Simple Tom Brady was not the highest paid quarterback, you know all those years. He wasn't he took pay cuts multiple pay cuts and
• 19:38
  You know it paid off because he won six championships with a Patriots and then he won
• 19:43
  One with the Buccaneers and now he's the greatest quarterback of all time now. I'm not saying that you know if quarterback does that that they're gonna follow
• 19:50
  the same path as a Tom Brady, but
• 19:54
  The but but to say that you know, you didn't see a difference with them surrounding him with talent
• 20:01
  That is true. That is definitely true
• 20:03
  But I'm gonna end this right here
• 20:05
  Just you know, just something just something to hold you guys over just something for you guys to think about
• 20:10
  You know going into the weekend and whatnot if you guys like what you guys are listening to please please please please please
• 20:16
  Download the episodes give us a five-star review if possible
• 20:20
  On your you know, whatever wherever pot podcasting street for
• 20:25
  Streaming platform that you guys listen to where that be Apple podcast Spotify, whatever the case may be
• 20:30
  Follow us on Instagram at football
• 20:33
  Underscore junkies pot again that is football underscore junkies pod also
• 20:38
  Also, also also if you have not heard we have our audio episodes on the
• 20:44
  On our YouTube page at football junkies pot again, that's football junkies pot
• 20:51
  Tick tock on content coming out soon. We're trying to work through the you know, the ins and outs and that trying to get everything set up
• 20:58
  I do know that the league is gonna be sort of going on a break for like six weeks
• 21:03
  You know, this is sort of the the drought period the last drought period before things really start ramping up
• 21:08
  So we're gonna try to see if we can put out some content
• 21:12
  Probably maybe have some special guests things are things are gonna get done
• 21:16
  We're gonna we're gonna get through this. Okay, we're gonna weather this storm. Okay, and as always
• 21:21
  I hope I gave you guys the fix that you guys need and love
• 21:24
  Just as much as I do. I love you guys. Peace out
• 21:54
  You