Latest / Best of LinkedIn: Strategy, M&A & Investments / Best of LinkedIn: Private Equity: Fundraising CW 35/ 36
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, based on the most relevant LinkedIn posts about private equity.
- 0:05Speaker 1: Fund-raising insights in calendar weeks thirty five and thirty six.
- 0:09Speaker 1: Frenness supports PE bank manufacturers with market intelligence needed to unlock revenue from idle production capacity.
- 0:16Speaker 1: you can find more info in description.
- 0:18Speaker 1: welcome to The Deep Dive.
- 0:20Speaker 0: So glad you're joining us, because right now I mean there are something like thirty-three thousand unsold companies just trapped in private equity portfolio.
- 0:27Speaker 1: Yeah it's a massive backlog.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Right
- 0:29Speaker 0: exits are completely jammed distributions to investors have well plummeted and the data actually shows that its taking full decade for investors get their original capital back.
- 0:40Speaker 0: So the classic PE playbook, you know buy a company wait for the market to lift them all to pull and sell it.
- 0:46Speaker 0: It's basically broken.
- 0:47Speaker 0: Oh
- 0:47Speaker 1: its completely broken.
- 0:48Speaker 1: I mean The fundamental mechanics of how firms actually get their hands on capital And You Know How they eventually return it.
- 0:54Speaker 1: They're being entirely rewritten while the plane is in the air Which Is exactly what we are dissecting For you today.
- 1:00Speaker 1: We're decoding those critical private equity insights currently circulating across linkedin so we can really understand this structural bottleneck.
- 1:08Speaker 0: Yeah, we're looking at the grueling new reality of fundraising.
- 1:11Speaker 0: The explosion of these complex liquidity mechanisms and who's actually capturing capital right
- 1:17Speaker 1: now?
- 1:18Speaker 1: Exactly!
- 1:18Speaker 1: And also how funds are forcing value creation in a really tight market.
- 1:23Speaker 1: but um... We should probably start from very beginning with the Capital Life Cycle Right?
- 1:27Speaker 1: The actual pitch to limited partners or LPs.
- 1:32Speaker 0: Because raising a fund, it's shifted from like a game of persuasion and storytelling into this ruthless test of operational credibility.
- 1:39Speaker 0: Right?
- 1:40Speaker 1: And you really see that shift in the physical architecture of the pitch decks themselves Like The Old Standard was very firm centric story.
- 1:47Speaker 1: Yeah You walked to a pension fund spent twenty minutes just talking about your legacy and vision.
- 1:52Speaker 0: Yeah!
- 1:52Speaker 0: You can't do anymore.
- 1:53Speaker 0: Chris Ollman made great point recently That effective pitches have abandoned entirely.
- 1:58Speaker 0: Instead What How Why paradigm, GPs the general partners.
- 2:02Speaker 0: they need a why how what approach.
- 2:04Speaker 0: Interesting!
- 2:05Speaker 0: Yeah one that is entirely centered on the LP's specific mandate because you wouldn't start at first date talking about yourself uninterrupted for twenty minutes right?
- 2:14Speaker 1: Definitely not.
- 2:15Speaker 1: And Alexi Chernibelsky kind of echoed this structural shift too, he argued that investment decks now need to prioritize the team's background in the top third of the presentation.
- 2:24Speaker 0: Yes exactly
- 2:25Speaker 1: Because LPs are no longer just underwriting the deal thesis.
- 2:29Speaker 1: they're underwriting The Team first like the thesis is completely irrelevant if the LP doesn't believe you or the unique fiduciary capable Of actually executing it
- 2:38Speaker 0: spot on.
- 2:39Speaker 0: and I mean even If your deck Is perfect targeting the wrong allocator Just kills the race instantly.
- 2:45Speaker 0: Ignacio P pointed this out, noting that managers often lose their room at very first question without even realizing it.
- 2:51Speaker 1: Oh for sure!
- 2:51Speaker 1: Like pitching an insurer with a deck built on a family office is just non-starter.
- 2:56Speaker 1: but here's what really caught my attention... The decision to re-up into your next fund is often quietly made years before you launch it.
- 3:05Speaker 0: Yeah because all comes down to operational hygiene.
- 3:08Speaker 0: Desmond Nyak had a brilliant framing on this.
- 3:11Speaker 0: He pointed out that, you know when a fund asks its investors for their committed money it isn't just a wire instruction right?
- 3:19Speaker 1: It's communication
- 3:20Speaker 0: exactly!
- 3:21Speaker 0: If the capital call doesn't reconcile cleanly with LPs end then their ops team flags the GP as a mess.
- 3:28Speaker 0: and over five year holding period that operational friction often matters way more than your actual IRR.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Wow
- 3:35Speaker 0: It's the same with side letters.
- 3:36Speaker 0: If you promise a pension fund bespoke reporting and deliver it late, allocators read that as severe failure of governance.
- 3:43Speaker 1: So if your an emerging manager facing this massive operational gauntlet just to prove you belong in the room?
- 3:49Speaker 1: The macro-math making LPs hesitant is brutal right now!
- 3:55Speaker 1: Ernest Sweat highlighted his staggering reality from McKenna Capital Management.
- 4:02Speaker 1: They're currently modeling venture fund hold periods out to eighteen years.
- 4:05Speaker 1: Which
- 4:06Speaker 0: fundamentally breaks an LP's reinvestment budget?
- 4:08Speaker 0: Wait,
- 4:08Speaker 1: okay walk me through that because if I'm in LP and my money is trapped in say a twenty nineteen vintage fund for eighteen years how does it actually stop me from investing today?
- 4:19Speaker 0: Because LPs, like you know pension funds or endowments they rely on the cash distributions from their older investments to fund their new commitments.
- 4:27Speaker 0: They have strict asset allocation limits.
- 4:30Speaker 0: So if the capital from twenty nineteen doesn't come back... Their bucket for private equity is technically full!
- 4:35Speaker 0: ...They might love your new strategy but The Capital Is Literally Trapped
- 4:38Speaker 1: Which perfectly explains the data Derek Shanahan shared.
- 4:42Speaker 1: He noted this dynamic has caused a post-twenty eleven low and first time fund formation.
- 4:47Speaker 1: It's a massive credibility crisis for the industry.
- 4:49Speaker 0: Precisely, and Joseph Ruggero emphasized a crucial philosophical point for anyone trying to launch in this environment A fund structure itself does not create credibility.
- 5:00Speaker 0: it only scales the trust you've already earned.
- 5:02Speaker 1: You don't just file formation documents and suddenly unlock better deal access.
- 5:06Speaker 1: No!
- 5:07Speaker 0: Not at all.
- 5:07Speaker 0: LPs demand independent evidence of your judgment before they commit a dime And John Austin Saviano added to this, noting that founders often have to fund their own working capital and their own GP commitments for years before a firm becomes viable.
- 5:22Speaker 1: Yeah so raising of funds right now is basically like applying for massive mortgage.
- 5:26Speaker 1: you don't get the money to become responsible because already are.
- 5:30Speaker 1: That's
- 5:30Speaker 0: great way put it.
- 5:31Speaker 0: But
- 5:32Speaker 1: I mean if operational burden is this heavy And you have to look institutional from day one with perfect capital call reconciliation.
- 5:39Speaker 1: How are these lean, emerging fundraising teams even surviving?
- 5:42Speaker 1: Well
- 5:42Speaker 0: automation is becoming their lifeline.
- 5:45Speaker 0: Philip Nelson-Jones recently highlighted the launch of Ankira which is an agentic AI hub specifically designed to automate the grueling workflows of fund raising.
- 5:54Speaker 1: Oh interesting
- 5:55Speaker 0: Yeah.
- 5:55Speaker 0: so instead a junior analyst spending hours chasing due diligence questionnaires or updating static tracker sheets The AI essentially acts as team member handling that operational drag.
- 6:06Speaker 1: Okay, so let's pivot to the larger structural issue we touched on earlier.
- 6:09Speaker 1: If LPs don't have reinvestment budgets because their capital is stuck how was the industry manufacturing liquidity?
- 6:16Speaker 1: Because if traditional exits like IPOs are selling to a strategic buyer Have dried up The industry has to invent new valves To release the pressure
- 6:25Speaker 0: right.
- 6:26Speaker 0: and those valves or multiplying rapidly We're moving from traditional exits too highly complex structural engineering.
- 6:32Speaker 1: The numbers here are just wild.
- 6:34Speaker 1: Lena Cabe cited Bain data showing those thirty-three thousand unsold companies sitting in portfolios, with average hold periods now stretching to seven
- 6:42Speaker 1: years.".
- 6:43Speaker 1: He actually joked that management fees were starting to resemble a subscription product.
- 6:47Speaker 1: he called it Netflix for capital calls.
- 6:50Speaker 0: It's a funny line but the reality is pretty grim.
- 6:53Speaker 0: Archangelosa noted this has led to massive rise in zombie funds you know funds that are past their expected life.
- 7:01Speaker 1: Yeah, and Cheyenne put it out that private equity distribution yields have plummeted from twenty five percent down to eleven percent of net asset value or NAV.
- 7:10Speaker 0: Exactly which is fueling a two hundred forty billion dollar secondary market
- 7:15Speaker 1: right?
- 7:15Speaker 1: And really quick before we dive deeper into how funds are hacking their way out of this liquidity desert.
- 7:20Speaker 1: speaking of subscription products you actually want make sure you hit subscribe to these feeds so don't miss our upcoming deep dives.
- 7:26Speaker 0: good call.
- 7:27Speaker 0: So looking at that exact dry spell Antoine Drann observed that historically the secondary market was just a niche tool.
- 7:35Speaker 0: It was built when there were only about five thousand PE backed companies, right?
- 7:39Speaker 1: A fraction of today.
- 7:40Speaker 1: Yeah
- 7:41Speaker 0: Today with roughly twenty nine thousand companies and flat exit routes secondaries are no longer Just a reactive tool for distressed LPs who need cash.
- 7:49Speaker 0: They are core market infrastructure for portfolio rebalancing.
- 7:52Speaker 1: And Kelvin Fu echoed this sentiment.
- 7:54Speaker 1: looking at the APAC region, fundraising there hit a twelve year low which is triggering an absolute golden age for secondaries and control buyouts.
- 8:02Speaker 1: because when you can't rely on macro-market expansion to lift your valuation operational control
- 8:09Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 8:10Speaker 0: And GPs are getting incredibly creative to manufacture this liquidity, sometimes controversially.
- 8:15Speaker 0: so John B Quinn highlighted the boom in continuation funds.
- 8:19Speaker 1: Right but I really struggle with this mechanism.
- 8:22Speaker 1: Like Cedric Teissier noted This is spreading heavily into private credit Pointing to Jeffries raising a one billion euro evergreen continuation fund that literally buys loans out of its own private credit book.
- 8:34Speaker 0: Yeah, it's bold.
- 8:35Speaker 1: If a GP is setting up a new fund to buy assets from its old fund aren't they basically negotiating the price with themselves?
- 8:42Speaker 1: I mean how was that not a massive conflict of interest?
- 8:45Speaker 0: It is the ultimate fiduciary tightrope!
- 8:47Speaker 0: The GP sits on both sides of the table.
- 8:50Speaker 0: They have a duty To get the highest possible price for legacy LPs cashing out But also has a duty to get lowest possible entry price For the new LPs coming in.
- 8:59Speaker 1: That sounds impossible.
- 9:00Speaker 1: Well,
- 9:01Speaker 0: they usually rely on third-party fairness opinions to justify the valuation.
- 9:06Speaker 0: But that inherent friction you're sensing is exactly why allocators are heavily scrutinizing these
- 9:11Speaker 0: deals."
- 9:12Speaker 1: And LPs aren't just taking this lying down either... David Harmeier reported that large allocators are using this difficult fundraising environment as leverage….
- 9:21Speaker 1: They're demanding coinvestment rights and separately managed accounts
- 9:25Speaker 0: Which adds another layer of complexity.
- 9:28Speaker 0: Robert Teja Javadi broke down how this structurally works.
- 9:31Speaker 0: A co-investment isn't just an LP tossing in and extra check on a deal by deal basis, it is structurally a separate vehicle.
- 9:39Speaker 1: Oh really?
- 9:40Speaker 1: Yeah!
- 9:40Speaker 0: It has its own NAV, its own reporting requirements ,and its own fee arrangements usually lower or fee free sitting directly alongside the main fund.
- 9:48Speaker 1: And GPs are even hacking their own commitments, right?
- 9:52Speaker 1: Nicole de Tomaso noted that while GPs typically commit one to two percent of the total fund size from their own pockets.
- 9:58Speaker 1: Many are now satisfying this via cashless management fee waivers.
- 10:01Speaker 1: they essentially forego taking a salary rather than injecting fresh cash which is obviously vital for emerging managers who don't have millions in liquid wealth.
- 10:10Speaker 1: but what about debt?
- 10:12Speaker 1: Are we seeing this structural creativity bleed into how funds actually borrow money too?
- 10:16Speaker 0: Oh, absolutely.
- 10:17Speaker 0: The blurring of lines is everywhere.
- 10:19Speaker 0: Steven Star highlighted the use of parallel sleeve structures.
- 10:23Speaker 0: Wait
- 10:23Speaker 1: explain that to me mechanically.
- 10:24Speaker 1: what exactly Is a parallel sleeve?
- 10:26Speaker 0: So normally A fund might go To a bank and borrow money directly Against the commitments.
- 10:30Speaker 0: their LPs owe them A standard capital call facility But in a Parallel sleep structure.
- 10:35Speaker 0: The main Fund creates a sidecar vehicle.
- 10:39Speaker 0: Okay...The Main Fund Commits its own uncalled Capital into That Sidecar.
- 10:43Speaker 0: And then the Sidecar borrows the Money.
- 10:46Speaker 0: It cleanly isolates the leverage and allows for highly creative deployment of unculled capital without breaching the main funds' borrowing limits.
- 10:53Speaker 1: That is fascinating, And we're even seeing this securitization of asset class itself!
- 10:58Speaker 1: Michael Ezrick in Charlotte Hogg pointed to rise of collateralized fund obligations or CFOs.
- 11:03Speaker 1: like Pantheon just closed a one billion dollar CFO...
- 11:07Speaker 0: ...and mechanics are brilliant.
- 11:09Speaker 0: if you want to attract specific type of capital Think about an insurance company, right?
- 11:14Speaker 0: Regulators won't let them hold large amounts of traditional private equity because it is too illiquid and risky.
- 11:20Speaker 1: Right they need safe-rated debt.
- 11:22Speaker 0: Exactly so.
- 11:23Speaker 0: a firm like Pantheon takes a massive diverse portfolio of private equity stakes And places into new vehicle.
- 11:30Speaker 0: Then, they slice that vehicle horizontally into tranches.
- 11:34Speaker 0: The top slice gets paid out first from any cash flows making it highly secure.
- 11:39Speaker 0: so a ratings agency gives an investment grade credit rating.
- 11:43Speaker 0: The bottom slice, the equity tranche takes all the risk but gets the upside.
- 11:51Speaker 1: You are essentially slicing illiquid PE assets into digestible debt from massive institutions... Yeah?
- 11:57Speaker 1: ...the washing machine of private capital.
- 11:59Speaker 1: Exactly!
- 12:00Speaker 1: Meanwhile John Mosley James Abbott and Kara Stevens noted that Australian fund finance market is shifting away from plain vanilla capital call facilities altogether.
- 12:08Speaker 1: They're moving to our highly complex NAV facilities where loans are based on the current value of the portfolio companies.
- 12:14Speaker 1: And this is increasingly driven by active sovereign wealth funds demanding bespoke terms,
- 12:19Speaker 0: which brings us to the data.
- 12:20Speaker 0: really with liquidity locked up and structures evolving This fast who was actually managing to raise fresh capital right now?
- 12:27Speaker 1: The concentration is staggering.
- 12:29Speaker 1: Yeah I mean it's a massive divide between the haves in the have nots.
- 12:33Speaker 1: Jeffrey fiddleman shared pitchbook data showing a huge seventy four point eight Billion dollars raised in the first half of twenty-twenty six.
- 12:41Speaker 1: But sixty eight point three percent of that capital went to fund sized at a billion dollars or more.
- 12:45Speaker 1: Wow.
- 12:46Speaker 1: Yeah, Nicholas McNamara mapped one hundred and twenty nine billion across just The top ten buyouts led by KKR's record breaking twenty three billion dollar North America Fund.
- 12:57Speaker 0: because LPs are fleeing to safety.
- 12:59Speaker 0: He MacArthur added that for giants like Aries Management, consistency is the ultimate differentiator.
- 13:04Speaker 0: LPs just want massive established brands.
- 13:12Speaker 1: Melissa Idmek noted that McKinsey found LP-effective allocations are actually declining, with buyout IRRs hitting a post two thousand too low of five point seven percent.
- 13:21Speaker 0: Yeah and for an asset class built entirely on the promise about performance... Five point seven per cent is a shock to this system.
- 13:26Speaker 0: Frister Havenman and Nicola Ebbmeyer showed that median PE funds are currently just matching the S&P five hundred by vintage.
- 13:33Speaker 0: And as we mentioned earlier it's taking a full decade to hit one XDPI meaning ten years.
- 13:38Speaker 0: just get your original investment back let alone turn a profit.
- 13:41Speaker 1: Which is why Namlu noted that KPMG sees funds actively pivoting to prioritize rapid cash distributions over paper IRR, like dividend recapitalizations where a portfolio company takes on debt just to pay a dividend of the BE.
- 13:55Speaker 1: firm LPs don't care about theoretical valuations anymore.
- 13:59Speaker 1: they demand cash.
- 14:00Speaker 1: They
- 14:00Speaker 0: absolutely do.
- 14:01Speaker 1: But here's where I get lost.
- 14:03Speaker 1: Returns are down Capital is trapped, yet alternative assets under management are booming.
- 14:09Speaker 1: Alexander Lipichavya JPMorgan puts it at twenty-one point.
- 14:12Speaker 1: six trillion dollars if institutional pensions or tapped out.
- 14:15Speaker 1: where's this new money coming from?
- 14:17Speaker 0: This perhaps the biggest paradigm shift in industry right now.
- 14:20Speaker 0: David Weisberg points to an untaxed tsunami of retail capital.
- 14:24Speaker 0: Institutional pensions are maxed out typically holding maybe eight to fifteen percent alternatives but the retail market sits at zero.
- 14:29Speaker 0: one per cent allocation Yeah, and Ronsters warns that private equity is already quietly entering target date retirement funds.
- 14:37Speaker 1: Wait really?
- 14:37Speaker 1: PE is moving from bespoke tailored investments for the ultra-wealthy into everyday four oh one case.
- 14:45Speaker 1: That feels incredibly dangerous given those ten year lockups we just talked about.
- 14:48Speaker 0: It's a massive structural experiment but The industry needs fresh capital And the retail market Is the largest untapped pool in world.
- 14:57Speaker 1: But what about the family offices?
- 14:58Speaker 1: I mean, they traditionally played heavily in this space.
- 15:01Speaker 1: They're
- 15:01Speaker 0: evolving too but in the opposite direction!
- 15:04Speaker 0: They are bypassing traditional funds entirely.
- 15:07Speaker 0: Hendrick Jordan notes that Family Offices is increasingly forming their own direct syndicates...
- 15:12Speaker 1: Going straight to The Source
- 15:13Speaker 0: Exactly Daniel Huber analyzed nearly sixteen hundred direct family office transactions, showing eighty-eight percent want to invest directly heavily favoring traditional private equity over early stage tech.
- 15:25Speaker 1: And here as James clarifies they're splitting their capital roughly evenly between direct deals and fund commitments.
- 15:32Speaker 1: but this isn't you know gut feel investing from a wealthy founder anymore.
- 15:37Speaker 1: sixty percent of these family offices are now using formal investment committees.
- 15:41Speaker 0: Right, they're institutionalizing.
- 15:42Speaker 1: We are also seeing geographic wealth shifts Driving this right.
- 15:46Speaker 1: Edward McKenzie, Peverton Whiteley highlighted a massive boom in India where ultra high net worth individuals increased sixty three percent and are heavily allocating to private markets To preserve generational wealth.
- 15:57Speaker 0: but even with the retail wave and family office wealth you have to look at The macro math of supply-and-demand.
- 16:03Speaker 0: all
- 16:04Speaker 1: this blew my mind.
- 16:05Speaker 1: Rafael Pinot did the math on this.
- 16:07Speaker 1: there's roughly two point four trillion dollars In PE dry powder unspent capital waiting to be deployed.
- 16:14Speaker 1: But over the next decade, there's an estimated ten trillion dollars in boomer-owned businesses about to change hands as that generation retires.
- 16:21Speaker 0: The mismatch is staggering.
- 16:23Speaker 0: even if private equity absorbs twenty five percent of that ten trillion three out four Boomer Businesses coming to market won't find a PE buyer.
- 16:31Speaker 0: They'll have to look to strategic search funds or literally just close their doors
- 16:35Speaker 1: Which means for the funds?
- 16:37Speaker 1: That did manage to raise capital.
- 16:39Speaker 1: deployment is incredibly high stakes With entry multiples, tight meaning businesses are expensive to buy and exit markets slow.
- 16:47Speaker 1: GPs cannot rely on financial engineering anymore
- 16:50Speaker 0: Exactly the days of generic playbooks or over.
- 16:53Speaker 0: They have to force value creation through highly specific niche operational strategies.
- 16:58Speaker 1: Like Ali Zahm and Devin Matthews pointed out that PE firms are aggressively cutting through AI theater, they aren't impressed by a startup's total addressable market slide.
- 17:07Speaker 1: There implementing highly specific agentic AI workflows with hard three month ROI targets directly into their B-to-B portfolio companies
- 17:15Speaker 0: And human capital.
- 17:16Speaker 0: the actual operators is becoming massive focal point.
- 17:20Speaker 0: James O'Dowd warns about the fragile assumptions and professional services deals.
- 17:25Speaker 0: PE models always assume partner growth, but reality is senior attrition typically spikes nine to ten percent post-merger because culture changes.
- 17:33Speaker 0: That's
- 17:33Speaker 1: a huge hit!
- 17:34Speaker 1: Yeah...the
- 17:35Speaker 0: talent pool isn't infinite
- 17:37Speaker 1: And Jack Seyer noted there is a severe shortage of proven PEC sweet talent, which is forcing funds to rely on step up executives and seasoned transformation leaders who actually understand the situational chaos.
- 17:50Speaker 1: Of a PE hold period
- 17:52Speaker 0: right in.
- 17:52Speaker 0: Rajith Shaji adds that hiring A great CFO Is no longer just about accurate reporting.
- 17:57Speaker 0: It's about the strategic judgment To know Which growth initiatives consume cash faster than they create it.
- 18:02Speaker 1: And because the standard playbook is broken, some funds are getting brilliantly unorthodox.
- 18:07Speaker 1: Shikar Chakani broke down the model for FTAI aviation and it's just a masterpiece of structural value creation.
- 18:13Speaker 0: Oh... The jet engine flywheel!
- 18:15Speaker 0: Walk us through how they actually do this… Because its genius!
- 18:17Speaker 1: Right so.. They use Wall Street warehouse financing about five point five billion dollars worth to buy commercial airplanes.
- 18:23Speaker 1: but don't care about leasing aircrafts.
- 18:25Speaker 1: that's low margin commodity business.
- 18:27Speaker 0: Ok what's the play?
- 18:29Speaker 1: The real market is in engine maintenance, which they capture.
- 18:32Speaker 1: And here's the kicker... When an engine reaches the end of its useful life for aviation… They don't scrap it!
- 18:38Speaker 1: …They convert those surplus jet engines into massive power generation units specifically for AI datacenters.
- 18:45Speaker 0: It's an incredible pivot.
- 18:47Speaker 0: They've turned an aging aviation asset into a critical infrastructure play for the AI boom, securing A-rated securitizations in the process.
- 18:55Speaker 0: It just proves that deep operational specialization is vital right
- 18:59Speaker 1: now.
- 18:59Speaker 1: Totally.
- 19:00Speaker 0: Philip DeVouser mapped a similar level of specialization with Arctos—a firm that manages a twenty billion dollar sports portfolio across thirty five teams and five major leagues.
- 19:10Speaker 0: They aren't just buying teams, they're institutionalizing minority stakes in professional sports as a legitimate asset class.
- 19:17Speaker 1: And we are seeing this deep evidence-based specialization and health care too!
- 19:21Speaker 1: Mareem Sain tracked two hundred eighty four women's health signals and noted that reimbursement specifically navigating CMS & FDA pathways is the true product roadmap.
- 19:31Speaker 0: Yes the clinical data
- 19:33Speaker 1: exactly.
- 19:33Speaker 1: menopause treatments for example are finally being priced on hard clinical evidence and trial data not just massive theoretical slides about the population size of women.
- 19:42Speaker 1: this
- 19:42Speaker 0: extreme specialization is clearly a reaction to risk.
- 19:46Speaker 0: when the macro environment gets tough generalists suffer, we see that play out in emerging sectors too.
- 19:51Speaker 0: Itzel Mankata reminds us that some sectors face intense headwinds, noting that impact.
- 19:56Speaker 0: first funds have struggled significantly more with securing RE-UPS than their traditional peers.
- 20:00Speaker 0: That's tough!
- 20:02Speaker 0: Yet on the flip side, Felix Ottagie points out that top quartile African PE funds are matching or beating U.S.
- 20:08Speaker 0: midmarket returns — they're leveraging lower entry multiples to manufacture forward returns despite LP hesitation in investing in the region
- 20:15Speaker 1: Which, you know raises an important question as we synthesize everything.
- 20:18Speaker 1: We've unpacked today where You seen that the structural engine of private equity is under immense pressure.
- 20:24Speaker 1: Exits are stalled distributions or historically low and median PE returns Are currently tracking near the S&P.
- 20:31Speaker 1: five hundred taking a decade to return capital
- 20:34Speaker 0: right?
- 20:35Speaker 0: Yet we are on the precipice of introducing a tsunami of retail capital into this space through four one K's and target date retirement funds.
- 20:42Speaker 0: Yeah, institutional LPs or accustomed to The J curve they understand long lock up periods.
- 20:48Speaker 0: but here is How will everyday retail investors react to the illiquidity premium when they inevitably experience a seven-to ten year cash flow negative cycle in their retirement accounts?
- 21:00Speaker 1: That is a scary thought.
- 21:02Speaker 0: Will that inevitable retail capital flight fundamentally break the private equity model, or will it force industry finally build transparent liquid infrastructure at currently lax?
- 21:12Speaker 1: If you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every two weeks.
- 21:15Speaker 1: Also check out our other editions on PE value creation PE Exit strategies, venture capital M&A and strategy consulting.
- 21:23Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us on this deep dive.
- 21:25Speaker 1: Don't forget to subscribe.
- 21:26Speaker 1: we'll see next time.