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Episode 144 - 10/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 144 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. The work week is finally coming
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to an end. We got a big weekend ahead of us
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here guys and we got a lot to talk about to finish up the week
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on a big Friday pod here. I have a four pack of sweats for
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you tonight, including a big night, big big night, a big Lee,
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I dare say night in college football.
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I have 3 bets overall. We're going to see if some dogs
0:57
can bark for us tonight. I also have an NHL bet for you.
1:01
Going to try to stay hot here in the NHL.
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And then also we're going to look toward the weekend where we
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have a big slate of both college and Pro Football.
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I do have a UFC bet for you biting with a big, big, big
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youth advantage as well as a sharp line move and bet split
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three NFL bats, 3 college football bats.
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And of course, I'll want I also want to invite you to join me on
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every Sunday. We do this every Sunday, but the
1:25
rhythm Sunday sweats myself and James Santor, thank you all who
1:28
have been tuning in each Sunday. But if you're new to it or maybe
1:32
you haven't heard about it live stream on Twitter, all you gotta
1:35
do is log into Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it,
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right at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. Myself and James Santor will go
1:41
live and we'll be breaking down all the NFL action, including
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rhythm system matches, rhythm edges, player props, late moves.
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Typically between, you know, Friday and Sunday.
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I have my, you know, my card ready to go.
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But there might be one or two bets that maybe I didn't really
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look at, you know, that thoroughly, or maybe they had
1:59
late sharp action or maybe there's an addition here or
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there, which again, could have a couple couple games added to the
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card. So always enjoy seeing you guys,
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TuneIn and you know, throw a couple comments in the chat.
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But I'd love for you guys to join again this Sunday at 11:00
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AM Eastern Time. The Sunday sweats NFL live
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stream. See you there now before we dive
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into our sweats for today and unveil our card for football and
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UFC for the weekend. Guys, we kept the winning streak
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going. Third straight winning day last
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night. 3 and 2 + 0.35 units. So don't scoff at 1/3 of a unit.
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We'll take it. We'll put it in our back pocket
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and reinvest it. Today we had some epic hits,
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none bigger than the Guardians. Oh my God, I know how the Mets
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are the OMG team, but OMG Guardians again.
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We like the Guardians because it was pretty much a line freeze or
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an RLM play. A public was all over the
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Yankees, yet that line pretty much moved toward a pick em in
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favor of the Guardians, even though they were super
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contrarian. And when they're up three to one
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and you bring in a manual class A1 of the best closures in
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baseball, maybe the best closer, you're feeling good, right?
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What happened? They blow the lead, Aaron Judge
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hits a Homer, Stanton hits a Homer.
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Now they're down 3 to what was it, 4 to 3?
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And I'm like, Jesus Christ, are you going to are you kidding me?
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Guardians are just going to blow it like that after it's all set
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up for them now. I had to jump in the car because
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we had a late night beer league softball game last night.
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It didn't. First pitch was until 9:00.
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So I'm like here we go. I didn't check.
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It's about a 45 minute drive. So in the car drive with my
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wife, she's on the team as well. She's our catcher.
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But we get there. I put the live stream on and I
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have the whole softball team watching the Guardians game
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number one, I was shocked that they came back.
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I did not see that Homer by Noel or Knoll to to tie it up, but
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they go to extras. I got the the live stream on my
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phone. We were waiting for our game to
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start. I had everyone rooting for the
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guardians and wouldn't you know it, David Fry with the walk off
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bomb. One of the most epic playoff
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games that I've ever cashed and maybe you have ever cashed.
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But wow, what a great, great comeback by the guardians.
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Almost a heartbreaker, but they they definitely made-up for that
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with a big walk off win. We also got the Denver Broncos.
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I didn't have to sweat that one pretty much at all.
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That road favorite system match line move came through.
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So that was great to see. Also got the Devils are fourth
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straight winning hockey play. So the Devils came through for
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us as well. And then even the losers, like a
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three and two night 3rd of a unit.
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I'll take that every time. But we were not that far from 5
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and O because Bonex entered the fourth quarter with I believe
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161 passing yards and because it was a blowout, they didn't run
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that. They didn't throw the ball the
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rest of the fourth quarter. So he came up short on the over
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194 1/2. But again, you're entering the
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fourth quarter 161. Kind of a tough break there, but
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the one that kind of really hurt.
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And again, you have a winning night.
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You'll take it every time. But Georgia State, man, Georgia
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State was covering that number until the very end.
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And Marshall just had to score an 88 yard touchdown with like a
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minute left to to backdoor cover for the public.
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So that was kind of frustrating because again, Georgia State,
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you know, pretty much had that cover in check.
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But either way, guys, three and two night plus 0.35 units, third
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straight winning day. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling into a big Friday. Now, I want to start off tonight
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or for today's podcast with a bunch of college football games
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for tonight because I really like the slate and I'm seeing
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value pretty much left and right.
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So let's start off with the first game of the night, Florida
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State and Duke. Now this is a interesting game
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for a bunch of different reasons. 7:00 tonight, this is
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going to be on. Where is it?
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I believe it's an ESPN 2 game, but Florida State comes in in
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this one, one and five been a bad year for FSU.
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They've lost two straight just lost to Clemson 29 to 13.
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They did cover, however, as a 16 1/2 point home dog.
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You know the dookies, they've been the opposite.
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They've had a good year five and one.
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They just lost their first game of the season.
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They lost to Georgia Tech 2414. They pushed as a 10 point Rd.
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dog. What have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this game opened with Duke
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listed as a three-point home favorite and the public just
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sees Duke 5 and one, Florida State one and five.
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You know, short number on a favorite at home.
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Duke all day, right? Again, easy bet.
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Well, that's what the public saying 67% of spread bets are
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going Duke. But here's the thing guys, Duke
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open -3 they crept up to 3 1/2, but all those 3 1/2 got scooped
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up by FSU contrarian backers. Now the line is down to three
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and I'm even seeing a juiced up FSU plus 3 -, 115 -, 120.
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And some books are getting down to 2 1/2.
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I even see again two books on my live odds page that are at 2
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1/2. So why is line going back toward
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FSU if everyone's playing Duke again?
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Duke getting two out of three bets, yet all the buyback is on
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FSU who's only getting 34% of spread bets.
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However, they are getting nearly 50% of spread dollars and all
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the late buyback is in their favor.
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And again, game day movement is so critical because that's when
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the limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
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So FSU has sharp reverse line movement.
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This was basically a line freeze when it was, you know, open.
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Duke 3 pretty much stayed three, got the three NAP but came back
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to three. That would be a line freeze
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heavy betting Duke. But you're right at the same
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spot you were at the open. Now it's an official RLM play at
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a lot of shops with the line now falling to 2 1/2.
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Also, you know, books are very conscious of any kind of line
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movement, but especially around a key number.
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There's a lot of money on the line.
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So again, when you see a fall of 3 1/2 to three or three down to
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2 1/2, tells you a lot of money move that that number.
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Also, you look at a just contrarian play.
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Again, Duke's only getting 34 or 33% of spread bets in a heavily
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bet primetime game on ESPN 2. So we're fading all the drunk
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guys at the bar who are saying FSU stinks, you got to play
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Duke. So let's go the other way and
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take FSU. One of my favorite system
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matches, short Rd. dogs getting 4 or less.
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They're 54% against the spread over the last decade.
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And I always mention this, but again, if you're a dog on the
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road getting 4 or less, typically home field advantages
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around three points. So if you kind of, you know,
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kind of think through that, that's basically saying it's a
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pick em game on a neutral site. Also Friday Rd. dogs, I don't
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want to jinx it, but they've been really good.
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We've had some really good Fridays with these Rd. dogs.
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They're 13 and three against the spread 81%.
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So again, let's hope that these Rd. dogs can continue to bark.
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And then also lastly, Seminoles buy low, sell high based on
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their one and five record versus 5 and one record.
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But also that conference dog opportunity built in
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familiarity, rivalry aspect, levels the playing field,
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benefits the team getting points.
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It's also a low total game, 42 1/2.
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So again, not like a total of 50 or 60 where more points would
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benefit the favorite and easily, more easily cover that number.
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Also, DJ Angulele, who again came in a few years ago as like
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the next big thing. Guy's pretty bad.
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He I believe he's getting benched for this backup
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quarterback who might be a freshman, but he played pretty
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well in the last game. So that could be a benefit.
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And then also I was reading strength to schedule.
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Now Florida State I believe has played a top ten like hardest
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schedule in college football and Duke is like around 100.
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So Florida State's played better competition.
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But add it all up guys, everybody's playing Duke.
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This lines coming back to FSU. I'm on Florida State plus three.
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Make sure you get the three again because a lot of books are
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now getting down to 2 1/2. But you should be able to find
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at least a couple that are still giving you the three.
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But let's go Seminoles +3. Next one, Oklahoma State and BYU
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late night sweat here, 10:15 PM Eastern Time.
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This is an ESPN primetime game. This is as of right now your
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most heavily back game of the night.
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And I think we have an opportunity to hold our nose,
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put on a hazmat suit and go Oklahoma State.
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Believe it or not, I'm taking the points plus 9 1/2 with OK
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State now setting the stage. OK State, they started 3 and O,
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they've lost three now three straight.
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So they're three and three on the year.
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They just got crushed by WVU 38 to 14 didn't cover as a
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three-point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, BYU fully admit
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they've had a fantastic year six and O they're now ranked 13th in
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the country. They're undefeated.
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They just took down Arizona 4119 easily covering as a 2 1/2 point
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home favorite. Now what are we seeing across
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the market here? Well, this game opened with BYU
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listed as a nine point home favorite.
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And the public is not scared off by this big spread.
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They're saying, hey, Oklahoma State's fallen off here
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recently. BYU is a powerhouse.
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BYU will easily win by double digits.
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So you're currently getting across the market 75% of spread
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bets going BYU. Now, early in the week, you did
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see BYU go up from -9 all the way up to -10.
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But ever since that time, it's been nothing but buy back on OK
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State. So there's a lot of money.
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Hit OK State plus 10, bring it back down to 9 1/2.
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Now some books are even inching down toward 9.
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So again, you, you really went to the big popular BYU side
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early, but now late movement, which is very, very important as
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we just mentioned, because of the way odds makers, you know,
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accept bigger bets on game day coming back toward OK state.
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So the fact that Oklahoma State is only getting 25% of spread
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bets, which makes them the number one contrarian play of
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the night, like Florida State's very contrarian as well.
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They're technically getting what did I say, 33 percent, 34%.
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This is even more contrarian. No one wants to play OK State.
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But the lines coming back in their favor of their contrarian
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and a heavily bet game here as well as a chance here to kind of
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go unranked versus ranked. Because if you look at BYU
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ranked coming off a win in a cover, OK State lost three and
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three in a row now unranked. That unranked versus ranked
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opportunity is always a great buy low sell, high value play.
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Also Cowboys dog who can score system match.
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They're averaging 30 points per game and that's important here
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cuz you got a score to keep up with BYU, so maybe you keep pace
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or backdoor cover. Also in terms of the total, we
12:02
have seen a lot of under money come in and open as high as high
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as 55 1/2. Now it's down to around 52.
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I like the fact that it's kind of a quasi low total.
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Now you're close to 50, the total's fallen and Lions coming
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back toward the dog. So that's a good sign here that
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with the fewer amount of expected points scored, you know
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it's going to be harder for BYU to cover that number in a lower
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total game. We add it all up here, guys.
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We got OK State as the number one contrarian play.
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But it's not just contrarian. It's not just a bet against the
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public play. You're starting to see this line
12:34
come back toward Oklahoma State. So give me the plus 9 1/2 again.
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This would be another Friday Rd. Dog 13 and three ATS 81% so far
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this season. I am.
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I was annoyed that I couldn't get the 10, but I'll take the 9
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1/2 and I'm thinking this may get down to 9.
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You'd love to take a nine and a half with the Cowboys and see
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this thing close at 9 live. We can get some CLV, but again,
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super contrarian play. We got sharp buyback.
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I'm going to take the points here with the Cowboys.
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Give me OK State plus 9 1/2. Keep on cruising last bed of the
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night. Let's stay up late.
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Put on a pot of coffee if you're a E coaster like me, 10:30 PM
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Eastern Time. Let's look at Fresno State and
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Nevada. Now this game will be played on
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I think it's CBS Sports Network. So I guess that's technically
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nationally televised. Maybe, maybe not, but I like the
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points here with Nevada. I'm taking Nevada +3 now going
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to this one. Fresno 3:00 and 3:00.
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They have dropped two straight though just fell to Washington
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State 2517 did not cover as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
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Meanwhile, Nevada 3 and 4, but they're kind of playing well
13:41
recently they've won two of their last three.
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They just took down Oregon State 42 to 37 and they won that game
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outright as a three-point home dog.
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Pretty much the same spot there in tonight, 3 point home dog.
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Now what do we see across the market?
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Well, Fresno State opened around a three-point Rd. favorite and
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the public is all over Fresno. I'm a little bit surprised by
14:01
that. Maybe they just seen Nevada with
14:03
a losing record 3 and 4 versus Fresno three and three.
14:06
But the public, whoever reason likes Fresno State here, maybe
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they just expect to bounce back spot.
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So currently, you're getting 64% of spread bets going Fresno
14:15
State. However, Fresno open -3 and
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they've pretty much stayed at 3:00.
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Or they're actually getting juiced up toward Nevada.
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And some books might be getting down.
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And I see one book down to 2 1/2.
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So if nearly two out of three bets are on Fresno, why do they
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open 3, stay three? Or why is the line now falling
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toward Nevada? Like, wouldn't you think -3
14:36
Fresno should be up to -3 1/2 - 4?
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No, it's gone the other way in favor of the Wolf Pack.
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So important here to get the three.
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It should be pretty widely available, but again, juiced up
14:46
in some books are going to 2 1/2.
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So make sure you shop around. But I really like not only this
14:51
liability line movement contrarian play on Nevada, but
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also and again with the line freeze turning into RLM, but
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also really good bet split. The Wolfpack are only getting 36
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or sorry, 30. Yeah, 36% of spread bets, but
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50% of spread dollars. So that is a nice low bets
15:10
higher dollars contrarian bet split.
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Hopefully because this is your 1030 game, we see more public
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play Fresno to make Nevada even more contrarian.
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You'd love to see this thing close 2 1/2 if you're taking
15:21
Nevada like me and get some CLV. But Nevada is checking off a lot
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of boxes contrarian some line freeze RLM action low bets
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higher dollars bet split their conference dog again built in
15:32
familiarity, leveling the playing field, benefiting the
15:35
team getting points. Wolfpack are also a dog who can
15:38
score system match just like we mentioned with OK state, but you
15:41
have Nevada averaging 27 points per game.
15:45
So keep pace or backdoor cover. And we have seen this total fall
15:48
it was 51 1/2. Now it's down to around 49 1/2
15:51
or 49. So again with a dog where the
15:55
lines kind of moving toward the dog in the total falling again
15:58
correlative betting harder for Fresno to cover.
16:00
Hopefully Nevada will show up for for us tonight and lose by
16:04
two or less. Or how about you win the damn
16:06
game? But I like this angle toward
16:08
Nevada. I got another dog for you.
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Let's go Wolfpack. Literally a dog.
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A wolf is a variation of a dog, right?
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Our dogs descended from wolves if we get into a National
16:18
Geographic debate. But anyway, I'm taking Nevada,
16:20
Wolfpack. Let's hope that they can howl at
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the moon. I got Nevada at +3.
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So Nevada plus three, FSU plus three.
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OK, State plus 9 1/2. Now over to some NHL action.
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Let's see if we can keep it rolling here with our NHL bats,
16:35
which have been after an O and two start.
16:38
We've won four straight, so let's see if we can make it five
16:40
straight. I'm going to focus on a match up
16:42
here, Carolina Hurricanes and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
16:46
Now, couple things jumped out to me in favor of Carolina.
16:49
I'm going to go Carolina here, guys.
16:50
I got the canes at -165 some shops are inching closer to -170
16:56
but the first thing that jumped out to me in a very small slate,
16:59
only three games tonight. The other two games are big like
17:02
-400 Winnipeg over San Jose -260 Colorado over Anaheim.
17:08
So this is a First off, a much more palatable number, but we've
17:12
seen a really sharp line move toward Carolina.
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Caroline open this game as low as a -, 140 Rd. favorite.
17:18
Now they're up to -165 -, 170. So right off the bat, a lot of
17:23
steam has hit Carolina 'cause this big move in their favor at
17:27
DraftKings only getting 62% bets but 77% of money.
17:32
So a nice low bets, higher dollars bet split.
17:35
Also, I have a ton of system matches here on Carolina and a
17:38
lot of them have to do with a rest first tired advantage.
17:41
Carolina hasn't played since the 15th, which was what was that
17:46
Tuesday? You had the Penguins play in the
17:49
16th, which is Wednesday. But prior to that, we have
17:53
Carolina now playing in just their second game in seven days
17:57
with some of their games being screwed up because of the
17:59
hurricane. Pittsburgh's playing their 4th
18:01
game in seven days. So Pittsburgh, I know it's early
18:04
in the season, but this is kind of a tough spot schedule wise
18:07
for them. They're playing their 4th and
18:08
seven days. It's a quick turn around.
18:11
Meanwhile, Carolina is very, very rested and hopefully ready
18:14
to go. All my systems again, variation
18:16
of that. But if you look at rested Rd.
18:18
favorites, at least three days between games.
18:21
They made the postseason and the opponent did not.
18:23
I know it's a little wonky, but that is a 66% system, 6% ROI
18:28
over the last four years. I have another system Rd.
18:31
favorite off a win. Simple 1 here since 2021.
18:35
That's 64 percent, 3% ROI favored off a win.
18:38
Opponent missed the postseason. 66% since 2021.
18:43
But here's the one you might have heard me mention before.
18:45
We've cashed a couple bets recently with this one.
18:48
Rd. favorites with steam versus an opponent who missed the
18:50
playoffs. So your favorite on the road
18:53
expected to win. Your little contrarian because
18:55
public likes home teams. You got steam, the money's in
18:58
your favor, and your opponent missed the playoffs.
19:00
Maybe they're not that good, but that system is 6 and three so
19:03
far this year. It is 62% with a 5% ROI over the
19:07
last four years. So a lot of angles and systems
19:10
on Carolina. Dig a little deeper.
19:12
I always have to look at the goalies.
19:14
Goalies are like starting pitchers in in baseball.
19:17
But I'm going to give the advantage to Frederick Anderson.
19:19
He's expected to start tonight O1 one this year, but two point
19:23
O six goals against. He'll be opposed by a young kid,
19:27
Bloomquist, who's 2:00 and 1:00, but he has a goals against of
19:31
2.86. So he's been again, giving up
19:35
quite a bit more in terms of goals versus Anderson.
19:38
And overall Carolina, the much stingier defensive team, they've
19:41
only given up three goals a game.
19:43
Pittsburgh's giving up 4.2 goals per game.
19:46
We got a ton of system matches. Good sharp line move, rest
19:49
first, tired, hopefully better goal tending.
19:51
I'm going Carolina Hurricanes, guys, I got -165 on Carolina.
19:57
Now looking toward the weekend. Let's look at UFC, baby.
20:00
Little bit of biting in the arena.
20:02
Now I'm going to focus on a match up here in the UFC between
20:07
Elise Reed and Jessica Penny. Now, as I always mentioned with
20:13
UFC, the model, if you haven't heard it before, younger,
20:16
taller, longer reach line, move in your favor, low bets, higher
20:19
dollars, bet split. That's really what I'm looking
20:21
for. If you look at Elise Reed, she
20:25
is checking off quite a few boxes here.
20:27
Now, when I got my Bet MGM e-mail from my buddy John Ewing
20:30
this morning, again, I always go right to left.
20:32
I look at percentages first, then I look at the line move,
20:35
then I look at who it's matching on.
20:37
So the first thing I notice about Elise Reed is a big line
20:40
move. Elise Reed open at -155 at Bet
20:44
MGM. Now she's -185 SA 30 cent steam
20:47
move in favor of Elise Reed. First box is getting checked
20:51
offline move. Elise Reed is getting 76% of
20:54
bets. Don't love that.
20:55
That's public. But she's getting 94% of money.
20:58
So not just public, maybe a little pro.
21:00
And Joe Low bets higher dollars. So -155 to -185 seventy, 6%
21:06
bets, 94% money. But here's the big, big
21:09
advantage in based on the tail of the tape here, Elise Reid is
21:14
31 years old. Her opponent, Jessica Penny, is
21:18
41 years old. That is really, really old.
21:21
Now, 41 in the grand scheme of things is very young.
21:24
As you know, in a human life in the UFC, that is ancient fade
21:29
fighters who are 35 or older, fade fighters who are five years
21:32
older than their opponent. And you're damn right, you
21:34
better fade fighters who are over 40.
21:36
That's just really old in a very violent combat sport like UFC.
21:42
So huge youth advantage, 10 year youth advantage.
21:45
Now, Elise Reid does not have the height or the reach.
21:48
She's 5/2 her opponents, 54. She's got a 64 entry to her
21:52
opponents, got a 66 1/2 inch, so it doesn't have the height of
21:56
the reach, but a huge youth advantage, 10 year youth
21:59
advantage, line move, low bets, higher dollars, bet split, and
22:03
then a couple other angles here. Significant strikes per minute.
22:06
You know if this ends up going to the judges, if no one gets
22:09
submitted or knocked out, 2.7 versus 2.5 in favor of Reed.
22:14
So she dishes out a little bit more punishment.
22:16
Her striking accuracy is 49% versus 31%, so she's the more
22:22
accurate striker and taking punishment, she absorbs 3.1
22:27
significant strikes per minute versus Penne who is giving up
22:31
4.8. And then lastly, I was reading
22:33
about how Jessica Penne, you know, she's a warrior, got to
22:37
give it to her to still be hanging on at 41.
22:40
You know, she's got some savvy. She was really good when she was
22:43
younger, but she hasn't won a fight in three years.
22:46
And maybe this is her last bout. You know, she's definitely on
22:50
the decline, getting older and age.
22:52
Now she's got to face a fighter who is basically in a prime at
22:56
31. So big line move that split in
22:59
our favor, huge youth advantage, better striker takes less
23:04
punishment with a young fighter on the rise in a prime versus an
23:07
old fighter. It's almost like in Africa, you
23:10
got the, you know, the the old lion who's used to be used to
23:14
roar and, you know, rule over the Kenyan safari where I
23:18
visited Kenya over the summer. But on their last legs and
23:22
there's a new there's a new new younger lion is ready to take
23:25
over or lioness in this situation.
23:28
But either way, guys, I'm going to go Elise Reed.
23:30
Now I got -180 on Elise Reed that's available right now at
23:34
Fanatics, ESPN and Caesars. Bet MGM -185 FanDuel is closer
23:39
to -190. So as always, shop around.
23:42
I'm going to lease Reed at -180 now looking toward this weekend
23:47
as we got a lot of sweats on tap.
23:49
Let's start with the NFL. Few games here in the NFL that
23:52
caught my eye. And again, tune into the live
23:54
stream at 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.
23:57
Might have some additions here, but I have a couple bets that I
24:00
have in pocket. So three overall.
24:01
These are games we talked about previously and I'm still riding
24:05
them. So the first one that caught my
24:07
eye would be the Green Bay Packers.
24:09
Green Bay Packers at home should be a great game.
24:13
They are at home against the Houston Texans.
24:15
So, again, two Super Bowl contenders going head to head.
24:18
But the first thing you notice about this one is the line move
24:21
toward Green Bay. This game open at a lot of
24:24
shops. Green Bay around -1 1/2.
24:27
Now, Green Bay is -2 1/2. And some shops even are closer
24:30
to -3 that's notable because the public split down the middle.
24:34
They don't know where to go. It's fifty 5050% bets.
24:37
Houston, How do you not take CJ Stroud on the points?
24:40
But also Green Bay's playing well loves, you know, pretty
24:43
much overcome or you know, has gotten healthier since he
24:46
injured his knee in Week 1. How do you not take Green Bay at
24:49
a short number at home? So Publix down the middle 5050.
24:53
What do I always tell you guys? 5050 line shouldn't move at all.
24:56
If you see a line move, go with the line move because even
24:59
though the action, the tickets, the raw ticket count might be
25:02
split, the bigger, sharper wagers are causing that line
25:05
move. So it tells me we got Green Bay
25:06
with the line move. They're only getting 50% bets,
25:09
but 64% dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
25:13
bets, split non conference matchup Green Bay here from the
25:17
NFC, Houston AFC. So lack of familiarity,
25:20
hopefully benefiting the better team or the team was favored to
25:23
win and also a relatively high total, 48 more expected points
25:27
scored. Correlative betting.
25:28
We always talk wanting about we're talking about wanting a
25:31
dog low total, favorite higher total.
25:34
You know, total 48 in college that's low, but this one's 48 in
25:37
the NFL. That's very high.
25:38
So I'm going to back Green Bay here and this is a money line
25:41
bet for me. I'm not going to mess around
25:43
with Green Bay winning by, you know, one or two and I lose a 2
25:46
1/2 or three or push a three. So I went money line Green Bay.
25:50
I got the Packers at -145 next one for you, Detroit, Minnesota.
25:57
Now, I totally get it if you want to take the Lions and the
26:00
points here should be a great match up in the the NFC North.
26:04
But I'm going to go with the Minnesota Vikings.
26:06
This looks like a fade the trendy dog play for me.
26:09
This game opened very short favorite Minnesota -1 I even saw
26:15
a couple books that I want to say open Detroit as a short
26:17
favorite. But either way, we've now seen
26:20
Minnesota get up to -1 1/2 and throughout the week they got as
26:23
high as 2 or 2 1/2. So I fully admit, you know, you
26:27
probably had some buyback here on Detroit plus 2 1/2 + 2 to now
26:31
bring it back down to 1 1/2. But I see this, this public dog,
26:36
Detroit is getting 70% of spread bets.
26:39
Yet even though it's come back down a little bit off the
26:41
opener, it's still moving in favor of Minnesota.
26:44
So I'm going to feed the trendy dog.
26:46
I'm going to take the Minnesota Vikings here.
26:49
Vikings would be a money line play for me.
26:51
I'm on the Vikings. I want to say it -125 the other
26:55
angle for Minnesota will be favored off a buy.
26:58
Minnesota's coming off a buy in favorites off a buy are 55%
27:03
against the spread over the last decade or so.
27:06
Detroit, again, you do have some good angles here with Goff as a
27:09
dog. He has been good as a dog in his
27:10
career. But also Eden Hutchinson just
27:13
got hurt versus Minnesota, rested and ready to go.
27:16
There's also a very high total of 50 1/2.
27:19
So correlative betting short favorite here.
27:22
Hopefully easier and more likely that Minnesota covers that
27:25
number or just wins outright if you're like me and just just
27:28
going with the money line. But that's a fate trendy dog
27:31
here at Detroit that I want to fade.
27:33
I am on the Minnesota Vikings here, guys.
27:35
I got the Vikings on the money line, as I mentioned -125 now
27:40
next one for you, Jets in Pittsburgh.
27:43
This is a Sunday football showdown, 8:20 PM Eastern Time.
27:47
And I'm, I'm a glutton for punishment.
27:48
I'm going to bang my head against the wall one more time
27:51
with The Jets. I hate it, but I'm going to
27:53
follow the data. I'm going to go jets here on the
27:56
money line. I got The Jets around -125 S
28:00
similar price to the Vikings. The first thing I noticed about
28:02
this one is a dog to fave line move in favor of The Jets.
28:06
A lot of books open this game. Pittsburgh -1 -?
28:09
1 1/2 at home. Now we flip to jets -1 1/2 and
28:13
Jets actually got as high as -2 or even 2 1/2 at some shops.
28:17
So we have a dog to fave line move in favor of New York.
28:20
Now The Jets are only getting 54% of spread bets, but 69% of
28:25
spread dollars. So they're technically public.
28:27
A little bit more than 50%, but they got low bets, higher
28:30
dollars in the line move in favor of The Jets and one angle
28:34
that cash for us very nicely last night with the Denver
28:37
Broncos. Rd. favorites.
28:39
Rd. favorites are now 21 and 9 against the spread 70% this year
28:44
and they're 25 and 778% straight up.
28:48
So I would match there with The Jets.
28:50
Also Jets hopefully get a boost with Devante Adams, Pittsburgh.
28:54
I just saw a tweak that Mike Tomlin has yet to say who's
28:59
quarterbacks going to be. Sounds like it's going to be
29:01
Russell Wilson, but hopefully this is a Jets team back against
29:05
the wall desperation spot, short number Sean Smith, also the lead
29:09
official is one of your top Rd. refs in the NFL.
29:13
He is about 60% against the spread to the road team.
29:16
So dog to fave. Good bet split Rd. favorite
29:19
system match. I'm going Jets money line again
29:22
around -125 Now over to some college football.
29:27
I mentioned some games earlier this week and hopefully you
29:29
listened because a lot of these lines are moving in our favor,
29:32
which is a great sign that we're on the right side.
29:35
Not great if you haven't bet it yet.
29:36
So couple games that caught my eye.
29:38
First one, let's look at LSU and Arkansas. 7:00 game.
29:43
Extremely heavily bet everyone and their mother is on LSU.
29:48
I totally get it. LSU was ranked.
29:51
LSU just had a big upset win taking down Ole Miss where
29:56
they're a four point dog. But if you look at the current
29:58
bet splits here in the line move, it's telling me to take to
30:01
take Arkansas here guys. So we open this game with LSU
30:07
listed around a three-point Rd. favorite.
30:10
Then the public says way too short.
30:12
LSU is ranked, Arkansas is not take LSU all day.
30:16
However, even though LSU is currently getting let me give
30:20
you the updated #60 or sorry, that's for next week. 76% of
30:25
spread bets on LSU guys, a lot of these threes are down to now.
30:31
Arkansas plus 2 1/2. So hope, hope you got the three
30:34
earlier in the week. Again, you can shop around.
30:36
You might be able to find and you know what kind of a a
30:39
straggler 3 out there. You could buy it up to three.
30:42
If you want to just say that save the juice and go 2 1/2.
30:44
You could do that as well. But we mentioned this at 3:00
30:47
earlier in the week. So I am on Arkansas plus 3IN
30:49
pocket. Arkansas is unranked, first
30:51
ranked. They're very contrary and
30:53
they're only getting 24% of spread bets and a 7:00 prime
30:57
time game. They're getting 24% of bets but
30:59
45% of money. So great low bets, higher
31:03
dollars bet split and they were also have a rest advantage.
31:06
They're coming off a buy and playing their third straight
31:09
home game. LSU is on the road now after
31:12
playing at home. Razorbacks dog who can score
31:15
system match 33 points a game. Arkansas also has the better
31:18
defense, giving up 19 a game versus 22 for for LSU.
31:24
So primetime game, 7:00, everyone's playing LSU.
31:27
Those threes are coming down to 2 1/2.
31:29
I am on Arkansas plus three. Of course, again, two and a
31:33
halfs out there. Shop around, buy it up, wait,
31:36
play the 2 1/2 if you want. But again, big, big thing that I
31:40
strive for early in the week is to beat closing numbers.
31:43
Plus 3 is looking really good right now in Arkansas.
31:46
Next one, another one that's looking good for us, Auburn and
31:49
Missouri. Now we're going in this one
31:52
where it looks like obvious Mizzou play.
31:54
Auburn's two and four. They've lost three straight.
31:56
Mizzou is five and one. They're ranked.
31:59
However, we've seen a very sharp line move toward Auburn.
32:04
We open this game, Missouri as high as a six and a half, 5 1/2
32:07
point home favorite and everyone's playing Mizzou, 79%
32:11
of spread bets. But guess what, guys?
32:14
We mentioned earlier in the week grabbing Auburn at plus 4 1/2.
32:17
Now they're down to four. I see one book, even down to 3
32:20
1/2. So Lions going to Auburn, even
32:23
though Mizzou is the popular bet, tells us we got smart money
32:26
on Auburn. I don't think you can find the
32:28
hook anymore, but you could at least get a four with Auburn.
32:31
They're only getting 21% bets, but 52% of money.
32:35
They're an unranked versus ranked opportunity as well as a
32:39
conference dog. And they also have a rest
32:41
advantage coming off a buy versus Mizzou playing last week.
32:44
So like this spot for Auburn again. 4 1/2.
32:48
Hopefully you got it earlier this week.
32:49
If not, I'll grab the four now. Another one that has moved
32:53
significantly, which I'm feeling great about.
32:56
South Carolina, those old Gamecocks, baby.
33:00
South Carolina and Oklahoma, We highlighted South Carolina
33:04
earlier this week at +3. That's what I got the Cox at
33:08
three. Guess what guys?
33:10
This game is down to a pick em. Some shops are even now.
33:13
South Carolina -1 dog to fave on South Carolina.
33:17
I love this spot. South Carolina's three and
33:19
three. Oklahoma's four and two.
33:21
Public is going Oklahoma. Oklahoma is getting 66% of
33:25
spread bets. But again, this line open
33:28
Oklahoma -3 it's not to a pick them or even flipped South
33:31
Carolina -1 so massive line move in favor of South Carolina only
33:37
getting 34% of spread bets and a heavily bet.
33:40
Let's say 1245. Kind of an early start here.
33:43
You also have a good advantage here with the offense of South
33:47
Carolina averaging 27 points a game, only 24 for Oklahoma.
33:51
And a lot of the angles that I had earlier in the week where,
33:54
you know, dog system matches in a way you like it even more now
33:58
that they're favored. So if if you got the +3 with
34:00
South Carolina, like I mentioned earlier earlier this week,
34:02
you're feeling great. If you didn't, you know, you're
34:05
probably going to go money line at this point with South
34:08
Carolina. But I saw that move and I was
34:10
like, damn the cocks taking in some big sharp action.
34:14
So that about does it, guys. Arkansas plus three.
34:17
Hopefully you got that. Hopefully got Auburn 4 1/2.
34:19
Hopefully got South Carolina +3. Again, those numbers have moved
34:23
Green Bay, Minnesota and The Jets on the money line in the
34:25
NFL along with our friend the pointer, Elise Reed.
34:30
So that about does it, everybody.
34:31
Other pod here in the books. Episode 144 of the ASG pod
34:36
Powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
34:38
where we wrap things up and I start to wrap up by asking you a
34:41
big favor. Could you make my day, do me a
34:44
solid and give this podcast a five star review.
34:47
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes should be an option to
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rate or review. If you want to leave a nice
34:52
comment, that would be great. But most importantly, click that
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five star review. It would be it would be a great,
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you know, gesture to let me know you appreciate the pod.
35:00
But really more importantly, help us to grow the pod, rise up
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the charts. If you want to recommend it to a
35:05
friend or click the follow button, that'll be great as
35:07
well. But please, if you enjoy the
35:09
pod, we've had a few good winning days here in a row, let
35:12
me know. Let me know you enjoy it, give
35:14
it a five star review. Secondly, if you enjoy this
35:17
style of betting breakdown, looking at line movement,
35:21
reading the market, looking at bet splits, looking at system
35:24
matches, going contrarian, flat betting, not parlaying, looking
35:28
for CLV. If this style of betting appeals
35:30
to you, you you've not been provided a blueprint where maybe
35:33
before you love betting, but you're kind of throwing darts
35:36
based on what your gut told you. I can tell you right now,
35:39
betting based on what your gut instinct says, that's a losing
35:41
endeavour long term. But anyway, if this pod has
35:44
appealed to you, has spoken to you, has helped you to cash some
35:47
tickets, if you enjoy listening to it and you want to learn more
35:50
about data-driven sports betting, guess what?
35:53
I wrote a book about data-driven sports betting.
35:55
That's right, I'm an author. And if you want to learn more
35:59
about data-driven sports betting or again, just you know, let me
36:02
know you appreciate the pod support.
36:04
The team got a buddy of yours who's new, new into betting and
36:08
no, has no clue what to do. Or maybe a friend of yours who
36:11
parlays everything and needs to learn about bankroll management.
36:14
Or maybe you have a, you know, got to get a gift for your dad
36:16
or your son or your cousin or whoever, someone in a newly
36:20
legalized state. Well, if you want to pick up a
36:22
copy of the Everything Guide to sports betting that would make
36:25
my day, just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything Guide to
36:28
sports betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend or a
36:32
buddy and it'll tell you everything I know about sports
36:34
betting. How to how to read line
36:37
movement, how lines move, how to go contrarian, how to locate
36:40
sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to set
36:43
up a bankroll management plan, all included in the everything
36:46
guide to sports betting. So pick one up, bring it to the
36:49
sports book. I'll sign it for you and I'll
36:51
buy you a beer or a ginger ale. Next.
36:54
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of both juice
36:57
reel and rhythm? Hope you haven't done it yet.
36:59
I'd like you guys to do that right now, especially rhythm
37:02
because when you the Sunday sweats with us, you can have it
37:04
right in your hand and follow along as we highlight all the
37:07
player props and AI back to game models.
37:10
Then also with rhythm, fantastic for their AI best bet picks from
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Robo Jackson as well as their arbitrage opportunities each day
37:17
that they highlight syncing up your sports books to the app as
37:20
well as their sharp mush plays and actual dollar breakdowns,
37:23
but real actual bets in dollars from people who have synced
37:26
their sports books. But rhythm and juicer will help
37:28
me win. I'm confident they'll help you
37:30
win. We got to sign up in a
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particular way. Click the custom links that are
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located in the bio description of this pod.
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You'll see the description each day.
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For example, today it'll say something like an episode 144.
37:42
Josh dishes out a four pack of Friday sweats, Yadda, yadda,
37:45
yadda, weekend sweats. OK, Scroll down, scroll below
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that. You'll see a link to juice real
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and rhythm. Click those links and then
37:51
you'll be signed up for your 70 free trial and hopefully it'll
37:55
increase your win percentage as you are now adding a data-driven
37:59
tool to your toolbox. But that about does it.
38:02
Everybody, as we wrap up this pot on a big Friday, I'll leave
38:05
you with a couple things. Whether I see you at the Borgata
38:08
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
38:10
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
38:14
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
38:17
and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
38:19
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down, where
38:22
Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest juice
38:25
possible is found at the South Point.
38:27
Or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
38:29
swim pool. When David Fry hits a walk off
38:32
bomb at Circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
38:34
to walk up to me, You're going to show me a Guardians ticket,
38:37
one of the best baseball sweats you'll ever cash.
38:40
Broncos ticket, Devil's ticket. Guess what?
38:42
First one's on me, next one's on you.
38:44
We'll post about the book and sweat some plays together.
38:47
As always, guys, my parting words, stay sharp.
38:50
Stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
38:52
Place yourself on the side of the house.
38:54
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
38:56
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
38:59
There's no such thing as locker guarantee.
39:01
But here's the thing, smart money wins a majority of the
39:04
time long term because these are informed sharp bets from pros
39:08
who move numbers never respect to the books.
39:10
So we can do that. If we can get down on games that
39:13
fit our model against the public with the house, with the pros,
39:16
flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV, we can grind that
39:20
system betting with our head and not our heart.
39:22
We're going to be successful sports betters.
39:24
So have a fantastic weekend everyone.
39:27
Have a great Friday night. I'll see you guys for Sunday
39:29
sweats in a couple days. 11:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday.
39:33
Stream live on Twitter and then after that we back at it on
39:36
Monday, hopefully recapping a profitable weekend.
39:39
Fingers crossed. Knock on wood, but I'll see you
39:42
guys back on Monday for episode 145 of the All Systems Go sports
39:46
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
39:49
Good luck everybody, have a great Friday night and an even
39:52
better weekend.