Three Bond Markets, Three Different Worlds

Exponential Learning · Oct 19, 2026 · 15m

Alpine Macro's Chen Zhao on the three macro stories that matter right now. (1) America: the bond selloff has likely crested — 10Y down 30+ bps to 5.1%, and the contrarian evidence (bearish crowd, 6% calls, Economist cover, heavy shorts) says yields topped; hot CPI/PPI produced curve flattening, not a selloff — the long end fears growth. Tech rout is 'healthy'; roadmap stays 'wobble now, new highs later'; rebalance 70/30 to 60/40. (2) France: OAT-Bund 140-150bp, a state spending 58% of GDP, 5.4% deficit, 120% debt, borrowing at 4.8% vs 2% nominal growth — the debt-trap math; Le Pen's plan…