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Week 4 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, we got through the 10 best games of Week
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: 4 in the other video, but now it's time for
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: us to discuss the next 15 games against the spread
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  Speaker 1: picks right here. Let's get to it. Welcome in. Winning
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: cures everything. It is a college football podcast. I'm your host,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Again,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: hopefully you had a wonderful Week 3. We certainly did
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: here at the show. The best bets... My official plays
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: went 9-2 against the spread over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcure. So,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: if you want to be a member there, of course,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: $ 5 a month, $ 50 for the year, and you are
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: supporting the show right here. Don't forget about Three Dog
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Thursday coming up on Thursday this week. Thursday every week,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: TJ and Jason jump in, knock that thing out. They
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: have been having quite a bit of success picking underdogs
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  Speaker 1: as well. So, Let's not waste a bunch of time.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about what the record looks like thus far.
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  Speaker 1: And so far on the show, my official show picks,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm picking usually 25 games per week. Week 2,
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  Speaker 1: the schedule got to me. I was doing quite a
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  Speaker 1: bit around Labor Day. So, 41 and 27 thus far
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  Speaker 1: against the number on the show. The model is doing
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  Speaker 1: better than me, 42 and 26. And my underdog picks
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  Speaker 1: on the show, 19 and 15. So underdogs over 55%.
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  Speaker 1: The official show picks and the model picks both over 60%.
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  Speaker 1: Doing pretty well. Last week on the show, 16 and
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  Speaker 1: 9 for the show picks. Model was 16 and 9. Dogs,
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  Speaker 1: 9 and 4 against the number. So, so far so good.
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  Speaker 1: Let's hope we can keep this thing. Our goal every
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  Speaker 1: year is to get above 50%. I'll tell you on
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  Speaker 1: some of these that I would not bet them. I don't.
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  Speaker 1: I don't bet every pick. I'm basically just telling you
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  Speaker 1: what the model thinks, what I would do based on
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  Speaker 1: different trends, different stats, scheduling spots, etc. We're just handicapping
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  Speaker 1: games very quickly, very briefly, if you will. All right,
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  Speaker 1: that is enough of that. Let's dive into the games.
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  Speaker 1: Game number 11 this week, 2.30 p.m. Central Time. This
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  Speaker 1: one on FS1. TCU goes down to Orlando to take
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  Speaker 1: on the UCF Knights. TCU currently a 3.5-point favorite. Total
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  Speaker 1: of 48.5 on this one. And, good gracious, there is
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  Speaker 1: a 3 out there on the market if you like TCU. TCU, 2-1.
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  Speaker 1: They beat Arkansas State 31-7. But the game that everybody
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  Speaker 1: remembers is, of course, in Week 0. Going over to Dublin,
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  Speaker 1: they lost to North Carolina. Didn't look great there, but
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  Speaker 1: they have gotten some players back since then. UCF 2-1
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  Speaker 1: as well. They beat Georgia State 44-30 last week. They
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  Speaker 1: lost 12-7 at Pitt in what was just an ugly
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  Speaker 1: monsoon kind of game. It just wasn't great, so you
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  Speaker 1: couldn't really get a good feel for either one of
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  Speaker 1: those teams there. The last meeting between these two teams
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  Speaker 1: was last year in Orlando, TCU won 27-20. UCF, you
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  Speaker 1: start diving into the numbers. They are explosive, but they
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  Speaker 1: are inconsistent. Their offensive success rate is number 104. Passing success,
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  Speaker 1: number 111. Yeah, well, passing success. Rushing success, number 59.
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  Speaker 1: They are number two in the country in rushing explosiveness.
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  Speaker 1: Something to pay attention to there, but TCU's defense is
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  Speaker 1: number 20 in rushing explosiveness allowed. Number 37 in rushing
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  Speaker 1: success allowed. They are pretty good against the run. Just overall,
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  Speaker 1: predicted points added per rush. UCF's offense, number 18. TCU's defense,
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  Speaker 1: number 15. So you're talking about strength on strength here.
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  Speaker 1: TCU's passing success. Good gracious. Number 128 passing success rate.
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  Speaker 1: But they are number 32 in PPA per pass. They
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  Speaker 1: are number 21 in passing explosiveness. But this UCF defense
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  Speaker 1: has been pretty good. Their defensive coordinator, Alex Grinch, I'm
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  Speaker 1: sure you remember that name, but he has done some
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  Speaker 1: pretty good things with this UCF defense. UCF's first half margin,
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  Speaker 1: number 110. Now, TCU is number 76. UCF is much
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  Speaker 1: more of a second-half team, but number 110, they're minus
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  Speaker 1: 12 in first-half point margin, something to pay attention to.
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  Speaker 1: Some trends here, UCF against the Big 12, 5-13 against
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  Speaker 1: the spread, that is 28%. And it's a pretty big
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  Speaker 1: sample size, 18 games here. But this team does look
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  Speaker 1: significantly better than they have in recent years. Now that
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  Speaker 1: they've got things kind of rolling with Scott Frost, I
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  Speaker 1: think they're going to be quite a bit better. TCU,
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  Speaker 1: since 2024, as a road favorite of three points or more,
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  Speaker 1: only 1-3 against the spread. Small sample size, little bit
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  Speaker 1: of noise, but still. The model... As you can see,
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  Speaker 1: both of these teams, by the way, 2-1 against the spread.
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  Speaker 1: TCU significantly more talent, number 37 on three's overall talent rank.
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  Speaker 1: UCF number 71. Net explosiveness, both teams inside the top 26.
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  Speaker 1: Points per play margin, both are pretty good there, especially
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  Speaker 1: the defenses. Turnover margin, neither team really turns it over
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  Speaker 1: a ton. This is going to be an interesting game.
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  Speaker 1: The model has UCF favored by 3.76%. Power rating has
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  Speaker 1: UCF minus 1.3, and yet TCU is favored in the game.
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  Speaker 1: I am going to follow the model here. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: I've got this thing seven points off the market. Now, again,
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  Speaker 1: these stats are very early in the year. Small sample sizes.
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  Speaker 1: Very small sample sizes. Straight to schedule for both of
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  Speaker 1: these teams based on Sagarin. TCU 164, UCF number 119.
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  Speaker 1: Who knows exactly what to believe about these teams? But
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  Speaker 1: I've got... a feeling that UCF is looking at good things.
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  Speaker 1: There is a three and a half out there. I
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  Speaker 1: am going to buy it. I like UCF here. I
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  Speaker 1: don't know if I'm going to officially play it. Of course,
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  Speaker 1: you can subscribe at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. And I will
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  Speaker 1: let you know if I do. But yeah, that is,
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  Speaker 1: that's a big difference. And I feel okay about it.
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  Speaker 1: So give me the Knights. Best number I can get
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  Speaker 1: is three and a half. I will take UCF plus 3.5.
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  Speaker 1: Game number 12, and we are staying in the Big 12.
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  Speaker 1: Kansas State visits Cincinnati. They're going to Nippert. This one
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  Speaker 1: 6 p.m. Central Time. God's time zone on ESPN2. Kansas
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  Speaker 1: State right now a 6.5 point favorite. Total has gone
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  Speaker 1: from 53.5 or 52.5 up to 55.5 now. So people
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  Speaker 1: like some points here. Definitely. Both of these teams are 3-0.
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  Speaker 1: Kansas State last week beat Tulane 31-20. Avery Johnson had
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  Speaker 1: over 150 rushing yards in that game. Cincinnati survived Miami
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  Speaker 1: of Ohio last week, 35-31. If we're being honest, box
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  Speaker 1: score hunting, Miami of Ohio probably should have won that game.
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  Speaker 1: But regardless, the last meeting between these two teams was
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  Speaker 1: in 2024. Kansas State won that one 41-15. Different world now.
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  Speaker 1: Chris Kleiman was the coach then. Colin Klein is the
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  Speaker 1: coach now for Kansas State. Kansas State's pass defense looks good. outstanding. Now,
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  Speaker 1: the strength of schedule for both of these teams is
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  Speaker 1: pretty garbage. No. 150 for Kansas State, No. 155 for Cincinnati. Again,
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  Speaker 1: these are staggering numbers. They include FCS, Division II, NAIA, whatever, right?
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  Speaker 1: All kinds of things. So, when you have played a
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  Speaker 1: schedule that bad, it kind of shows. A lot of
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  Speaker 1: adjustments being done to the numbers here to make sure
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  Speaker 1: that they're as close to accurate as possible. Uh, Kansas
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  Speaker 1: State pass defense, number one in the country in passing
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  Speaker 1: success allowed. They're number four in PPA allowed per pass.
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  Speaker 1: They are number two in yards allowed per attempt. They
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  Speaker 1: are number 11 in passing explosiveness allowed. Number three in
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  Speaker 1: havoc rate. But since his offense is number 16 in
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  Speaker 1: havoc allowed, they are pretty good at running the football,
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  Speaker 1: which is one thing that Kansas State is not great
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  Speaker 1: at defending. So something to pay attention to. Kansas State,
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  Speaker 1: on the other side, on offense, their rushing explosiveness is
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  Speaker 1: at number four. And Cincy, number 122 in rushing explosiveness allowed.
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  Speaker 1: Look for some big chunk gains from Avery Johnson and company.
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  Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to run the
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  Speaker 1: football here, most certainly. Penalties per game, Kansas State number one.
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  Speaker 1: Cincy is number 93. Definitely not great. Turnover margin? Number
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  Speaker 1: 12 for Cincinnati, they don't turn the ball over. Number
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  Speaker 1: 7 in giveaways per game. Kansas State, number 87 in
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  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Now, they don't turn it over a lot.
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  Speaker 1: Number 48 in giveaways per game, but only number 107
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  Speaker 1: in takeaways. So, they don't do a very good job
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  Speaker 1: of creating turnovers. Trends, Kansas State as a 3-plus point
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  Speaker 1: road favorite. 0-5 against the spread since 2024. Cincinnati as
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  Speaker 1: an underdog. And you would think good things would be coming,
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  Speaker 1: but no. 3-8-1 against the spread that's 27%. It's a
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  Speaker 1: 12-game sample size. It's fairly substantial. Kind of crazy. Again,
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  Speaker 1: this number is 6.5. The model has it 6.33. The
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  Speaker 1: power rating has this closer to Kansas State minus three
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  Speaker 1: and a half it hasn't changed much from the beginning
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  Speaker 1: of the season because we didn't know exactly what to
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  Speaker 1: think of either one of these teams the offenses are
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  Speaker 1: pretty good Kansas State can tend to shoot themselves in
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  Speaker 1: the foot a little bit the fact that this one
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  Speaker 1: is a night game at Cincinnati I think six and
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  Speaker 1: a half may be just a touch too much. So
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to trust in Nippert Stadium. I'm going to
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  Speaker 1: trust in this defense, or sorry, this offense for Cincinnati
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  Speaker 1: to be able to put some points on the board
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  Speaker 1: against Kansas State's defense, which again has been really good,
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  Speaker 1: but they've been playing against nobodies. I just get the
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  Speaker 1: feeling this home dog is going to cover here. So
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  Speaker 1: give me Cincinnati plus six and a half. It goes
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  Speaker 1: with the model. 6.33. I mean, granted, you're only talking about.
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  Speaker 1: 17 points here, but I will take Cincinnati to keep
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  Speaker 1: it within that 6.5. I don't feel great about it,
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  Speaker 1: but let's go with the Bearcats. Model, minus 6.33. The
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  Speaker 1: line is minus 6.5. Yeah. Cincinnati plus 6.5. We got
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  Speaker 1: a Friday night game in the ACC, and Clemson is
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  Speaker 1: visiting Cal. They're headed up to Berkeley. And this line
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  Speaker 1: has flipped. This one is 9.30 p.m. Central Time on ESPN.
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  Speaker 1: Clemson is now a 1.5 point favorite. Cal was a 1.5
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  Speaker 1: point favorite yesterday. So this thing has moved quite a bit.
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  Speaker 1: Total is 50.5. Yeah, the number on the total has
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  Speaker 1: not moved. My projected total on this is 47.86. But
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  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily trust either defense. And I Both of
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  Speaker 1: these offenses are just bleh, right? Cal, number 106, an
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  Speaker 1: offensive success rate. Clemson, number 137, which is next to
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  Speaker 1: last on this. I mean, just putrid. Clemson, 2-1 on
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  Speaker 1: the year. They did beat North Carolina after a rain
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  Speaker 1: delay last week, won it 28-20. They lost 51-10 at
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  Speaker 1: LSU to start the season, and that is the lasting
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: memory that everybody will have of the Clemson Tigers because...
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: They got taken behind the woodshed. I mean, just brutal.
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  Speaker 1: Absolutely brutal. Cal also 2-1. They beat Wagner pretty good.
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  Speaker 1: They stole one at Syracuse. Absolutely stole it. And they
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  Speaker 1: lost the opener 45-24 against UCLA. So, the only prior
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two, Cal won. That was 1992 in
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  Speaker 1: the Citrus Bowl. This is Clemson's first West Coast Conference
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  Speaker 1: game ever. And it's on a short week. Do with
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that what you will. Clemson's rushing defense is, and it's
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: not that Cal can take advantage of this because, my God,
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  Speaker 1: they're awful at it. Number 124 in rushing success rate.
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  Speaker 1: They are number 128 in PPA per rush. Clemson's defense
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  Speaker 1: also number 128 in PPA allowed per rush. Clemson, their
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  Speaker 1: rushing defense is just putrid. Cal's Rushing offense is also putrid,
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  Speaker 1: just rough. On the other side, though, Cal's defense pretty
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  Speaker 1: good at stopping the pass. Clemson's offense throws the ball
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  Speaker 1: about half of the time, 49% of the time. But Cal,
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  Speaker 1: number 10 in QBR allowed, number 20 in yards allowed
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  Speaker 1: per attempt. They are number 106 in havoc rate. Well,
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  Speaker 1: Clemson is number 133 in havoc allowed. They are number
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  Speaker 1: 105 in passing explosiveness. Passing success rate number 116 for Clemson.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Cal is number 17 there. So, not a lot to
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  Speaker 1: go on. As far as being able to finish drives,
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  Speaker 1: Cal's defense number 51 in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
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  Speaker 1: Clemson's offense number 75. On the other side of the field,
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  Speaker 1: Cal number 83 in points per scoring opportunity. Clemson number
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  Speaker 1: 59 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. So, another one
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  Speaker 1: of these teams is great. at either one of those.
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  Speaker 1: The talent is the name of the game here. Cal
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  Speaker 1: number 60 in overall talent. Clemson number 20. Clemson off
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  Speaker 1: of a spread cover, which is what they did against
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina last week. They are 4-7 against the spread
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  Speaker 1: since 2024. That's 36% in 11 games. I don't feel
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  Speaker 1: great about this. I'm going to take Cal. I think
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  Speaker 1: they've got the better quarterback. I know that Clemson has
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: more talent, but West Coast Road Trip, on a short week,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: had to fight tooth and nail to come back against
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. Everybody loves Clemson because they have significantly more
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: talent here. My stats projected spread has Cal minus 1.5.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: The power rating still has Clemson minus 3, or, well,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: minus 2.8. But the model, Cal minus 1.51, I'll go
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: with the model. Give me the home dog here on
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a short week. Clemson, first ever trip out to the
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  Speaker 1: West Coast for a conference game. Yeah, I'll take the
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  Speaker 1: dog now. Give me Cal plus one and a half.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Game number 14, and we are talking about the last
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: game of the night. The Big Ten owns the rights
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  Speaker 1: for this one, so this one is on Fox, 10 p.m.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone, Washington. A 10 to 10.5
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: point favorite over Minnesota. And this one in Seattle, total
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: is 46.5 on this. Washington finally got the offense going
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: last week. Looked pretty good. 48-16 over Eastern Washington. They
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: didn't get the cover. They are 0-3 against the spread
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: thus far this year. Minnesota is 2-1 on the season.
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  Speaker 1: And the one that everybody remembers is they got absolutely
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: shellacked at home by Mississippi State. Now, in their favor,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State has shellacked everybody. Mississippi State with a big
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: win at South Carolina last week, so that does make
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Minnesota look slightly better. The first meeting between these two
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: since 1977. Minnesota won that ballgame. Stats to pay attention to.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: The model, by the way, has Washington by 8.71. This
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: thing opened at 9.5 on Sunday morning. My power rating
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: has Washington minus 7.7. The model has Washington minus 8.71. And... Yeah. Yeah.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Stats to pay attention to, this Washington defense is pretty good.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: They are pretty good. But they have played absolutely nobody.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: And they're still not even in the top 20 as
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: far as success rate is concerned. But they are number
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  Speaker 1: four in PPA allowed per drive. That is predicted points
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: added allowed per drive. Washington, their defense, their turnover margin
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: is number five in the country. And... Don't get me wrong,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is not awful. Number 51 in turnover margin. They're
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: only number 26 in giveaways per game, which is really good.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Washington is number 7 in giveaways per game, but they're
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: also number 7 in takeaways per game. They are aggressive.
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  Speaker 1: They are ball hawks. Big reason why they are number
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: 118 in penalties per game and number 132 in penalty
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: yards per game. They are averaging over 90 yards per
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: game in penalty yards. Minnesota, number 67. In penalty yardage
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: per game, they give up 56.7 penalty yards per game.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: So that is something to pay attention to. But the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: turnover margin is very interesting to me. Minnesota throws the
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: ball almost 65% of the time. That's pretty wild. That's
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: number two in the country as far as pass rate.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: They like the quarterback. They think they've got an NFL quarterback.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: But all the numbers around that would not tow you
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  Speaker 1: to believe that. They are not having much success running
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the football. I don't think they're going to have a
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: lot of success against Washington here. They are number 101
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  Speaker 1: in yards per rush, number 17 in rushing success rate,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: but number 110 in rushing explosiveness, number 133 in offensive
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  Speaker 1: line yards. This is not a typical Minnesota football team
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: that we're watching right now. They are really good as
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: far as average field position. Their offense is number nine
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: in average field position. Defense is number one in average
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: field position. That is crazy to think about. And it's
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: not like Washington's terrible. They are number 25 on defense
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: and number 36 on offense in field position. So they're okay.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: They're not bad. Washington having trouble on offense with finishing
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: drives to number 100 in points per scoring opportunity. You
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: ought to be able to get some points up against
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: this Minnesota defense, who is number 105 in points allowed
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  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Minnesota, Number 77
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. Well, Washington's defense kind of
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: bows up when you get down towards the end zone.
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  Speaker 1: Number 23 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. So giving
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  Speaker 1: up a lot more field goals than they are touchdowns.
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  Speaker 1: That defensive red zone conversion percentage is number 30. The
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: defensive red zone touchdown rate is number 14. They only
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: allow a touchdown on 37% of their opponent's red zone trips. So,
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  Speaker 1: You can contrast that to Minnesota's defense, who is number
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  Speaker 1: 100 in defensive red zone touchdown rate. Over 70% of
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: opponents' red zone trips turn into touchdowns. Now, they don't
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: give as many red zone appearances per game. but a
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: lot of this has to do with the fact that
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is number 160 in current strength of schedule, and
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Washington is number 156. So the teams that they have
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: played outside of, you know, for Minnesota, Mississippi State, for Washington, nobody.
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  Speaker 1: They have played legitimately nobody, and Almost got beat by
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Utah State. You know, Washington State in game one, maybe
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: we can throw that out there, but I don't believe
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: that Washington State is going to be very good. And
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I promised myself, somebody in the chat said to stop
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: calling them nobodies, or didn't tell me to stop, but
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: just like that I shouldn't do that. And they're correct.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Washington State is not a nobody. There's just a huge
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: talent differential. Speaking of talent differential, Washington number 23 in
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: on three overall talent. Minnesota number 39. Both of these teams,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: you know, outside the top 100 or right at number
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: 100 as far as SP plus special teams efficiency. Minnesota
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: number 112. Washington number 100. So there can be points
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: had there, but neither one of these teams is great
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: at taking advantage of that. When you start looking at
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: five factors and whatnot, Neither of these teams is great,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: to be honest. Kind of different teams as far as
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: when they get going. Washington is a quick starter, number
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: 36 in first half point margin. Minnesota is number 77
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: as far as second half point margin. Minnesota number 41.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Washington number 61. So, let's go back to what the
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: model says. And this spread right now, 10.5? Well, there's
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: a 10, there's a 10.5. And... Looking at this, we've
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: got a total in the 40s. So this thing has
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: gone from 45.5 up to 46 or 46.5. I am
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: going to go with Washington to be able to get
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: this done. I think the offense found something last week.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: They tend to beat not great teams. Minnesota has shown
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: me absolutely nothing thus far. I'm going to take the
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: late-night home favorite, to get this done now that they
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: finally got the offense going a little bit last week,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit more chemistry going between the quarterback
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: and the receivers. I still don't believe that they're going
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: to be good at rushing the football, but if you
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: were ever going to run the ball on somebody, it
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: would be this Minnesota defense for sure. So I think
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: DeMond Williams has a pretty big game here. I think
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: this thing does get away from Minnesota late. I know
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: that Minnesota likes to cover. They tend to cover. Oh,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: as far as trends go, Wisconsin, Excuse me. Washington, as
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: a home favorite of less than 14, 5-0 against the
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: spread since 2024. They are 0-3 against the spread thus far.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Even still, Minnesota as a dog, 6-4 since 2024, or
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: since the beginning of 2024, as a 7-plus road dog,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: only 1-3. So, this thing is really close to the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: number as far as the model goes. Again, the model
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: has Washington minus 8.71. I think they're going to cover
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: the 10. So, best number I can get is a 10.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: Give me the Huskies. Minus 10 at home on Saturday night.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Game number 15, and we've got another Big Ten matchup here.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: And it's an odd one. Opposite ends of the coast.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: UCLA traveling all the way over to College Park to
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: take on the Maryland Terrapins, who were coming off of
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: a loss last week. Right now, this one is on
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Network. It's at 12.30 p.m. Central Time, God's
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: time zone. That would be a 10.30 a.m. body clock
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: game for UCLA. So kind of early for the Bruins.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: UCLA right now a 1.5 point favorite. Total is 58.5.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: There is a 57.5 total out there if you like
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: the under. This total has gone up. Six points. Six points.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Now on Sunday, it was all the way at 59.5. Hmm.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: It's gone down a little bit. Gone down a little
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: bit from that 59.5. A lot of people jumped on
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: it early. UCLA was favored by 2.5 early. There has
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: been some Maryland love in the market. So, UCLA 3-0
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: thus far on the season. They beat Purdue 52-38 last week.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Maryland is 2-1. They lost 35-26 at home to Virginia
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Tech last week. The last meeting happened last year. UCLA
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: won 20-17 on a walk-off field goal. That was after
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the coach had been fired, etc. So lots of stuff
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: going on there. UCLA. We'll start with their offense here.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: The model, by the way, has UCLA minus 1.42. The
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: power rating has UCLA minus 1.9. Nico got banged up
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit against Purdue. Not sure what to make
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: of that. We're recording this on Monday night. I don't
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: know yet. I'm going to look at this as if
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: he were playing the game. So, Niko Yamalieva, I think,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: is going to play on Saturday. So that's the way
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: we're going to look at this thing. UCLA and their
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: rushing success, even if Niko does not play, they are
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: fantastic running the football, and that is a Bob Chesney staple.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: They are going to run the ball. They're going to
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: run it a lot. They're number 20 in the country
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: in rush rate. They run the ball over 58% of
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the time. They are number four in yards per rush,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: number two in PPA per rush. They are number two
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: in rushing success rate, number 16 in rushing explosiveness. This
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: happens to be what Maryland is best at on defense.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Maryland number 33 in rushing success allowed, number 21 in
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness allowed, number eight in offensive line yards allowed.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: They're number 13 in stuff rate. Maryland can hang with
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: these guys. So if all UCLA does is try and
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: run the football, they're going to be in some trouble here. Uh, UCLA,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: as far as their penalties are concerned, they're aggressive. You
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: can see it with the turnover margin. They are number
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: 7 in the country in takeaways per game. They are
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: number 9 in turnover margin. Well, they're also number 136
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: in penalties per game. They're number 135 in penalty yards
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: per game. Over 94 yards per game in penalty yardage. Maryland,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: number 53 in penalties per game, but they are number
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: 71 in penalty yardage. And they are not nearly as aggressive.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: They're number 59 in takeaways per game, but they never
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over. Malik Washington is great at making
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: sure that they do not give the other team the ball.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: They're number one in the country in giveaways per game.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Zero turnovers thus far. But their pass defense is not great.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Number 116 in passing success rate allowed. UCLA is number
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: 17 in passing explosiveness. Number 35 in passing success rate.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at some of these other numbers. They
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: don't throw it much. Number 101 in QBR, number 126
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: in yards per attempt, number 104 in PPA per pass. Easy,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: quick outs. Don't do anything stupid with the football, basically.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Bob Chesney off of a spread loss, which is what
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: happened last week. They did not cover against Purdue because
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: they were favored. I think it closed about 14.5. There
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: were some people that got 14s. On the show, I
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: picked Purdue plus 15.5. So, you know, there was a
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: lot of UCLA love in the market, but Purdue was
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: able to score some points on them on this defense,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that here in just a minute.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: But Chesney 8-3 against the spread off of a spread loss.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Maryland off of a spread loss, only 4-9 against the spread.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: 31% in 13 games. Both of these point towards UCLA. Um...
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: The body clock situation, traveling west coast to east coast
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: for an earlier game. The model has it 1.42. And again,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the line right now is UCLA minus one and a half.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: That total keeps going up. I think Chesney is going
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: to feel good about this. I think Chesney is going
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: to have these guys ready to play. Maryland, you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: returning production, they are really high up there. They got
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: a lot of dudes back. But when you start looking
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: at overall talent and whatnot, they're number 47. UCLA is
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: number 38. This UCLA defense is pretty good. They are
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: number 42 in defensive success rate allowed. They are number
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: 52 in PPA allowed per play. That's pretty good points added.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: And you just look at overall PPA margin. Number 25
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: for UCLA, number 45 for Maryland. Maryland number 83. In
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Sager and current strength of schedule, UCLA number 40. I
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: think we're going to see points, and I think that
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: UCLA is going to win this football game, even on
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the road. I know there's a lot going against me
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: there as far as the travel and the time, etc.,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: but I have bought in to what Chesney's doing and
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: the way that he has built this team, especially at
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. You start looking at UCLA's offensive
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: line against Maryland's defensive line. And the fact that they
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: are pretty much even on the other side with Maryland's
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: offensive line and UCLA's defensive line. UCLA, their linebackers, really good.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Their running backs, really good. I think UCLA is going
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to have success here. So, best number I can get
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: is one and a half. Give me the Bruins on
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the road, minus one and a half to win this
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: game and cover the spread on Saturday. Are you tired
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• 30:13
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• 30:15
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• 30:22
  Speaker 1: We got another Big Ten tilt. This one 4 p.m.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Central time on the Big Ten Network in East Lansing
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: where Michigan State is going to host the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: And Nebraska is a 5.5 point favorite. Yep, no other
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: movement on that. And 48.5 is our total. The total
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: has gone down four points from 52.5. Pretty wild. Pretty
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: wild jump. On Sunday, it was 48.5. It's still sitting
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: at 48.5. Nebraska, 3-0 thus far on the season. Last week,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: they beat North Dakota 34-7. Michigan State lost 27-10 at
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. They did cover, though, as far as against
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: the spread records thus far this year. Nebraska, 2-1. Michigan State,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: 3-0 against the number. Pretty good. Pretty good. The last
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two, Nebraska won 38-27 just last year.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: And the model here has Nebraska minus 10.83. Now, the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: power rating has Nebraska minus 2.4, so the fact that
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: this number is right in the middle at Nebraska minus 5.5,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: it's gone up a bit, up to 5.5, which tracks
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: with our model, makes perfect sense. The defense is looking
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: pretty good for Nebraska. The overall numbers for Michigan State
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: just don't look very efficient. Now, a lot of that
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: probably has to do with the fact that they played
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, but... Sagarin's strength of schedule. He's got Nebraska
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: at number 27. He's got Michigan State at number 59.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Sagarin's schedule ratings are interesting. Definitely interesting. But he's had
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of success with it. I am going to
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: continue to follow along with what he's doing and we'll
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: play with it more in the offseason. But let's dive
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: into some more numbers. Nebraska, their offense, number one. In
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: PPA per drive, they are number 22 in offensive success rate.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: They are explosive, number 8 in, well, excuse me, that's
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: on defense. On offense, number 34 in passing explosiveness. They
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: are number 8 in rushing explosiveness. They are number 9
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: in offensive explosiveness overall. Their defense is number 21 in
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: defensive explosiveness. So they can create chunk plays, and they
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: do not allow chunk plays. A lot to pay attention
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: to here. I mean, just a ton to pay attention to.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: This Nebraska team looks really good so far. Hadn't really
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: played a whole lot of teams. Or anybody, really, for
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: that matter. I'm not going to call them nobodies. But
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: even still, the schedule strength is way off from what
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Sagarin put here. Regardless. Michigan State's rushing defense. Number 123
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: thus far on the season. That is not good. They are...
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: right there, 48% rushing success rate. That is crazy, considering
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: who they have played. Crazy. Because Notre Dame is not
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: very good at running the football. Number 69 in yards
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush, but number 86 in PPA allowed per rush. Well,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's offense, number 5 in PPA per rush, number 11
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: in yards per rush, number 10 in rushing success rate,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: number 16 in offensive line yards. Nebraska, I think, is
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: going to be able to kind of dominate the line
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: of scrimmage here. Nebraska number nine on the offensive line
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: as far as position unit ranking. Michigan State number 64.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Nebraska's defensive line number 44, Michigan
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: State's offensive line number 34. So Michigan State, you would
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: think they might be able to run the ball a
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: little bit, but no, they're not very good at that either.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: On offense, this team is just not very good. Number
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: 101 in PPA per rush. They're number 95 in rushing success. Well,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: If they can't run, surely they can pass. No, that
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: is incorrect. No. 92 in PBA per pass. They are No.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: 100 in pass rate. No. 107 in passing success rate. No.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: 120 in passing explosiveness. And this Nebraska defense is great
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: against the pass. I mean, really, really good. No. 5
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. So, everything kind of points the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: same direction here. Nebraska No. 24 in overall team success.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Team talent at on three. Michigan State number 63. Michigan
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: State is at home. It is a later game. It's
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: 4 p.m. It'll be nighttime by the time this thing
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: gets into the fourth quarter. Looking at five factors plus
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule plus talent, Nebraska is number five in
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: the country in that metric. Michigan State is number 52.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Points per scoring opportunity. Nebraska's offense number six in the country.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: They are great at finishing drives. On the other side,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: Michigan State number 43 in scoring opportunities per game, but
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: number 99 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Nebraska is
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: number 26 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. As far
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: as trends go, there's not really a lot here to
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: look at. Michigan State as an underdog is 11-5 against
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the spread since 2024. That's 69% over a 16-game sample size.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Nebraska, against the Big Ten since 2024,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: they were only 6-10-2 against the spread. That's 38% over
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: 18 games. Yeah, the trends don't like Nebraska here. But
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I think this team has woken up. They have found
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: the right quarterback. They got rid of some of the
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: negative pieces. I think the chemistry looks really good on
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: this team. I think they're waiting for a breakout spot
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: in this season. feels like it. So I'm going to
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: go with the road favorite here. Again, the spread right
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: now is 55, or sorry, the spread is 5.5 with
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: a total of 48.5. The model has Nebraska minus 10.83.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I'll side with the model. Give me the road favorite here.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Give me the Nebraska Cornhuskers to cover 5.5. Game number
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: 17 is the biggest G6 game of the week, and
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: that would be the Boise State Broncos going over to Kalamazoo.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I believe it's Kalamazoo. You'll correct me if I'm wrong.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: But they're taking on the Western Michigan Broncos. This one
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: is either 2.30 or 3 o'clock. I'm not sure which one.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: It's on ESPN2 or ESPNU. Boise right now a 7
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: or 7.5 point favorite depending on where you get it.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Total of 48.5. It is the first ever meeting between
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: these two. Both of them nearly beat Big Ten Powers
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: in Week 1. Boise lost 34-27 at Oregon. Western Michigan...
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, Sagarin still registers it as a Western
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Michigan win. 12-7 over Michigan, but the official scoreboard says
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: that it was 13-12 Michigan because they hit a Hail
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Mary at the very end of the game with no
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: time left on the clock. We're not going to get
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: into that today. It was one play. One play. Either way.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Looking at the numbers here. Boise State's passing defense is 10.9
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt, number 137 in yards allowed per attempt. Now,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan ain't great at throwing the football. They're number
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: 96 in yards allowed per attempt. As far as passing
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: success rate, Boise is actually better on defense than Western
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: Michigan is on offense. Western Michigan number 90 in passing
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: success rate. Boise number 73 in passing success allowed. Havoc rate.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Boise number 17. Western Michigan number 59. QBR. You know,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Boise number 134 in QBR allowed. Not great. I mean,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Memphis did a number on these guys, and Oregon was
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: able to get some things going. Now, as far as
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: rushing defense is concerned, Boise number 13 in rushing success allowed,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: but the number 90 in rushing explosiveness allowed it. the
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: issue there is that Western Michigan is number one, 23
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: and rushing explosiveness allowed Western Michigan, number 74 in current
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule. Boise is number 34 in current strength
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: of schedule. They played Oregon. They played Memphis last week.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: They played South Dakota and they didn't look good against
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: South Dakota, but after those first two games, perfect spot
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: for them to just kind of take a nap, get
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: out of Dodge with the wind, all that kind of stuff. Um,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Let's see. Both of these teams are really slow as
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: far as pace. So the fact that this total, it
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: was at 47.5. It's up to 48.5. I think it's
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: going to go, as the week goes on, I think
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: we see less points. I think the total is going
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: to keep going down. It came up for a little bit.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: We'll see how long that lasts. But Western Michigan, number
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: 135 in pace. That's plays per minute. And Boise, number
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: 125 in pace. So both of them run less than
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: two plays per minute, which is pretty wild. Pretty wild.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Net explosiveness, Boise number 115. Western Michigan number 103. Western
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Michigan better on defense. Boise is number 131 in defensive
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed. So if Western Michigan was ever going to
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: find a way to hit some chunk plays, it's probably
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: going to be in this game. They probably got some
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: stuff saved up for this one. Turnover margin, both of
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: them pretty good. Top 35 in the country. Boise number 35.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan is number 12. Western Michigan at home. 9-3
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: against the spread. That's 75% since 2024. That's a total
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: of 12 games. Not bad. Boise off of a spread loss.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: They are 7-2 against the spread. Again, only a 9-game sample.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: But as a road favorite of less than 10 points,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: they are only 1-2 against the spread. Again, it's kind
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: of just noise. There's not a real trend there, but
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: that's since 2024. So they haven't really been in the
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: spot very much. The model... likes Boise minus 0.36. Power
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: rating has Boise minus 3.1. Who am I to argue
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: with trends and everything else? Western Michigan likes to cover
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: a lot at home. I trust Lance Taylor. You all
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: know I don't like their offensive coordinator. I don't like
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Walt Bell. But I think that the defense is going
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: to be able to get some things going here. The
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: talent discrepancy is a huge thing. On three overall talent rank,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Boise number 61, Western Michigan number 122. I want to
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: take Western in this game. But you start looking at
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: position groups, etc. The line of scrimmage is huge in
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Boise's favor. I think they were sleepwalking last week. I
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: think it hurt their numbers. I think Western Michigan looked
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: really good against Michigan. Western didn't look so great against
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Rice last week. You know, they got the win, but
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: even still, I'm going to go against the numbers. I'm
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: going to go against the model. I'm going to go
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: against that Western Michigan at-home trend where they cover a
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: lot at home. The talent just feels like way too much.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Way too much. I think Boise comes out, makes a statement.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: I can get it at seven right now. I'm going
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: way against the model. Give me Boise minus seven to
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: cover this one on the road. I don't feel great
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: about it, but when you've got such a huge talent
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: discrepancy and Western is playing against a team that actually
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: has some kind of offense going for them, especially running
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: the football. I think they're going to be able to
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: run on Western Michigan. Yeah, I'll take it. Boise minus
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: seven is the play here. We got a Big Ten
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Friday night battle. This one's 7 p.m. Central time. It's
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: in Bloomington on Fox. Indiana right now a 21-point favorite.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Total sits at 49.5. Northwestern takes on the Indiana Hoosiers. Again,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: this one's on Friday. You're defending national champs here. They
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: beat Western Kentucky 38-0 last week. They are 0-3 against
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: the spread. They have played with their food. Their current
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule is number 198 per Sagarin, of course.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Northwestern number 51 in current strength of schedule, but Northwestern
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: has only played two games. They have covered the spread
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: in both games, and boy, they covered the spread by
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: a lot last week against Colorado. They put a beating
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: on those boys. Northwestern got a game against Penn State
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: coming up where they're opening their brand new home stadium.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: But this one, I mean, this is a big spot, right?
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: If you can go in, hang with the defending champs,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: you're going to feel pretty good about yourself. Northwestern, you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: crushed Colorado last week. Chip Kelly has done amazing things
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: with this offense. And you can see it here, number
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: 12 in offensive success rate, number 18 in passing success.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: And that's with Aiden Childs, who was not very good
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: at Michigan State the last couple of years. Number 27
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: in PPA per drive on offense for Northwestern. That is
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: predicted points added. Indiana's numbers are fantastic. Number 2 in
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: PPA margin, number 4 in PPA per drive on offense,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: number 7 in PPA allowed per drive on defense. So...
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: You start looking at some of these things. The last meeting,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: by the way, Indiana won it 41-24 in 2024. They
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: did not play last year. Indiana's top two nationally in
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of really big spots. Both of these teams
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: play slow. Number 114 in plays per minute for Indiana.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Number 108 for Northwestern. Overall talent, it's actually closer than
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: you would think. Indiana number 46 and Northwestern number 56.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: This line has gone from 22.5 on Sunday down to 21,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: and there's a 20.5 out there as well if you
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: like Indiana. Northwestern, their turnover margin, number 5 in the country.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Number 22 in giveaways per game, but they're number 5
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: in takeaways. They are pretty aggressive, and you can tell
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: it because of the penalties per game. Number 117 in
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: penalties per game. Indiana is number 2 in the country
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: in penalties per game. They are number 1 in penalty
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: yards per game. Only 26 penalty yards per game. Northwestern,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: number 89 in penalty yards per game. Indiana, right now, well, Northwestern,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: one thing to pay attention to, their defense, number 10
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: in defensive red zone conversion percentage, number 1 in red
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate allowed. They allow 4 red zone appearances
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: per game. On 12.5% of them, they've given up a touchdown,
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: which is best in the country. Indiana, Also pretty good. No.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: 6 in defensive red zone touchdown rate. They're No. 30
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: in red zone conversion percentage. Indiana and Northwestern both tied
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: at No. 1 in offensive red zone conversion percentage. Both
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: are hitting at 100%. Indiana is No. 8 in red
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate. Northwestern No. 79. Not nearly as good.
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: Who can finish drives here? The Northwestern offense is number
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: 12 in points per scoring opportunity. So if they get
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: down there, they're going to put up a touchdown usually.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: But against Indiana, who is number eight in points allowed
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, may not be as easy. On the
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: other side, Northwestern's defense, number five in points allowed per
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Indiana's offense, number four. So who is going
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: to break here? What are we looking at? This Northwestern defense,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: not very good against the run. If you know anything
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: about Kurt Cignetti, you know that he wants to run
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the football. They are number 78 in rushing success rate,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: but they're number 37 in offensive line yards. Northwestern's defense
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: is number 131 in offensive line yards allowed. Indiana number
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: nine in stuff rate. Northwestern number 129 in stuff rate allowed.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: Northwestern's good against the pass. Number 15 in QBR allowed.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: But Indiana's number one in QBR allowed. I think Indiana's
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points just buying it.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of love in the market for Northwestern
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: right now and what they're doing. And if you look
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: at the five factors plus strength of schedule plus talent rank,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Northwestern number 17 in the country. Indiana's number 48. But
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: if you look at raw rank, like just not including
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, not including talent, Indiana is number one.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Northwestern is number 24. Now some of that might have
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: to do with the schedule. Indiana has not covered a
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: single spread thus far all year. Northwestern has covered two
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: of them. My boys in the Westlot Pirates are not
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: going to like this. I'm going with the model. The
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: model says Indiana minus 22.69. This feels like the spot
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: where they kind of open up the playbook a little bit.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: You're going to see some things that you have not
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: seen on film yet. Northwestern has had to put things
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: on film against South Dakota State and against Colorado last week.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: Give me Indiana. I can get a 20.5 out there.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I will take Indiana at home on Friday night, minus 20.5.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to open up a can. So
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: give me the fight in Cignetti's. I think this is
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: where they finally show some of the stuff that they got.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: And you will see a lot of points on the
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: board from the Hoosiers. But yeah, give me Indiana, minus 20.5.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: All right, we've got to pick up the pace here
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Big 12 game. On Fox Saturday, 2.30 p.m.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Central Time, Utah heading to Ames, Iowa to take on
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: the Iowa State Cyclones. Utah a 7.5 point road favorite.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: A total of 48.5 or 49 depending on the book,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: wherever you get it. This thing dropped quite a bit. Uh,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: it was Utah minus 10 and a half. And I mean,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: that was just on Sunday. It is now Monday evening.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean, 10 and a half down to
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. That's pretty wild. Both of these
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: are first year coaches, Morgan Scali for Utah, Jimmy Rogers
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: for Iowa state, Utah three and oh, uh, but their
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule is number 135. Iowa State's current strength
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: of schedule is number 145, which is pretty wild considering
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Utah has played Arkansas and Iowa State has played Iowa.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Iowa State 2-1 against the spread, Utah 3-0, and Utah's
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: offense just looks unstoppable. The things that they are doing
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: with those two quarterbacks is outrageous. The last meeting between
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: these two, Iowa State won 31-28. That was back in 2024.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Utah's passing success, number one. Number one in the country.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: They are outrageous. Their passing explosiveness, number 46. Their rushing
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: explosiveness is number 25. Devin Dampier is awesome at that.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's defense, though, really good. Number 20 in defensive
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. Number 14 in defensive PPA allowed per drive.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: That's predicted points added. So Utah's offense got some things
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: that they're going to have to try and figure out.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, number 138 in plays per game. Dead last
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: in the country. They're number 131 in pace, that is
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: plays per minute. Utah is number 75 in plays per minute,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: but number 45 in plays per game. Number 32 most
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: plays on offense. Utah as a 7-plus point road favorite,
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: 3-1-1 since 2024. That is a very small sample size here.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: But Jimmy Rogers as a dog is 6-2 against the spread,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: and people have really bought in on what they did
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: against Iowa. I think that's a one-game kind of thing.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think that Iowa State's team overall is very good.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Number 89 in all three overall talent rank, Utah number 32.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: And that's not to say that I think that Utah
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: is great by any stretch of the imagination. People are
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: really buying in on this Jimmy Rogers stuff. This offense
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: for Iowa State, number 114 in offensive success rate. You
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: look at everything else with them. Number 41 in yards
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: per pass attempt, but they don't throw the ball very much,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: 35% of the time. They like to run it, but
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: they're number 99 in rushing success rate. They are number
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: 32 in yards per rush. But this stuff, you know,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: the rushing success, rushing explosiveness, offensive line yards, et cetera,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: that takes out garbage time. So any kind of beatings
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: that you've had, it's going to take out a lot
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: of the plays. So Iowa State in plays that really matter,
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: not great. Not great on third down. On defense, I mean,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: they're pretty good at everything. Who can finish drives here? Utah,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: their defense, number 11 in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, number 19. The problem for Iowa State is
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: that they don't get down there much. Number 98 in
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game. Utah on the other side, number
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: nine in scoring opportunities per game. And they're number 10
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: in points or points per scoring opportunity. Iowa state's defense
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: is number four in points allowed per scoring opportunity. And
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: they are number 33 in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: As far as five factors, raw rank, Utah's number two,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: Iowa state, number 35, five factors, plus strength of schedule,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: plus talent, Utah, 47, Iowa state, number 79, uh, The
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: market has gone against the model. The model has Utah
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: minus 10.76. The power rating has Utah minus 9.1. I
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: know they're going on the road. I know this is Ames, Iowa.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: I know Jimmy Rogers is really good as a dog.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: But I'm going with the road favorite again. Best number
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I can get is Utah minus 7.5. Boy, if that
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: thing gets down to 7, it's probably going to be
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: an official play. I don't think these rosters are close
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: at all. So give me Utah minus 7.5 to cover
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: this one on the road. Game number 20, another Big
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: 12 battle, and the Colorado Buffaloes are headed to Waco
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: to take on the Baylor Bears. This one at 11 a.m.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone, of course. This one's either
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: ESPN or ESPN2. I got conflicting reports, so I just
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: put both of them on the notes. Baylor right now
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: a 10-point favorite at home in this game, and that
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: says to me that they are expecting DJ Lagway to
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: play Because my power rating, well, power rating's pretty close anyway.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Baylor minus 9.2. The model has Baylor minus 11.56. So,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: the number opened at Baylor minus 8.5. It is all
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: the way out to 10 at most places now. There's
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: a 9.5 out there if you like Baylor. 9.5. 54.5
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: or 55.5 is the total, depending on the book. Baylor
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: beat Louisiana Tech 36-19. They lost 17-16 to Auburn, Colorado.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: got drilled at Northwestern last week, but they did have
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: a win at Georgia Tech to start off the year.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: So the last meeting between these two, Colorado won 38-31
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: in overtime. That is the Shador-Hell-Mary game back in 2024.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Baylor's pace is really fast, which makes sense for a
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Jake Spavitol offense. Number three in the country in plays
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: per minute. They are number two in plays per game,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: number one in plays per game on offense. Colorado, number
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: 18 in pace of play. They are number 15 in
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: plays per game, so you are going to see a
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: lot of plays in this game, which is probably why
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: you saw the total go from 53.5 on Sunday up
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: to 55.5. What's our latest number? Yeah, 54.5 or 55.5,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: so it's trending up. We'll say that. Special teams, Baylor
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: number three, Colorado number 20, or sorry, 122. So there
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: is a massive difference there. The talent rank, not a
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: huge difference. Number 40 for Baylor, number 54 for Colorado.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Colorado's red zone conversion percentage is just atrocious. Number 130, 62.5%.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: And that includes field goals, et cetera, right? They're number
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: 115 in offensive red zone touchdown rate. Baylor's defense, number
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: 40 in red zone touchdown rate allowed. number seven in
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: defensive red zone conversion percentage. If you look at points
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity, Baylor, number 10 on defense, Colorado's offense,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: number one 34, they cannot finish drives on the other side.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Baylor number 83 in points per scoring opportunity, Colorado's defense,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: number 50 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. So Baylor
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: may have an easier time scoring than Colorado here. I
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: would say, uh, As far as, well, let's look at this.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: Penalty yardage, Colorado number 130, Baylor number 114. You're probably
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: going to see some flags on Saturday. Just a guess.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: Baylor as a 7-plus point home favorite, 4-2 against the
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: spread since 2024. Colorado as a 3-plus point road dog,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: 3-6 against the number. Both of these are small. Both
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: of them are kind of noise. It's not huge trends,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: but Still something to pay attention to. My model does
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: not think that either of these offenses are going to
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: put up a lot of points, but DJ Legway is
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: supposed to be back. He's supposed to be playing. I
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: think that's what the model, or with the... Not the model.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: I think that's what the market, that's the word I'm
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: looking for, believes in this game. I don't think you're
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: going to look for Baylor to run the ball much.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: but I do think they can have some success throwing it. Colorado,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: much more difficult to shrink the schedule, but you saw
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: what Baylor was capable of doing against Auburn. So I'm
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: going to trust the model here. Best number I can
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: get is Baylor 9.5. Yeah, I'll take that. Give me
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: the home favorite. Baylor minus 9.5. The model likes Baylor
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: minus 11.56. I'll side with the model. I think Baylor
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: gets a big win at home over Deion Sanders and company. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 57:58
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• 58:02
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• 58:07
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• 58:12
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• 58:15
  Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available everywhere you
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: get podcasts. Game number 21 in the ACC tilt, Wake
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: Forest traveling over to Louisville, who just had a massive
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: home win last week. This one, 11 a.m. Central Time.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: It's going to be ACC Network, ESPN, ESPN2, something like that.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: It hadn't been confirmed yet, at least not when I
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: wrote down the notes. And I didn't go back to look.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: It'll be on TV. How's that? You can find it
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: on your gadgets. Louisville is a 13-point favorite right now.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: Make sure that we haven't... There's a 12.5 out there. 12.5
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: for 13. Total 58 or 58.5, depending on where you
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: get it. Louisville beat No. 16 SMU 41-31 last week.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: They lost 41-38 over now a top-five Ole Miss team
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: in Nashville to start off the season. Wake got obliterated
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: by Miami early last week and then fought back, covered
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: the spread, lost 33-20 in that one. The last meeting
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: between these two was in 2022. Louisville won that one 7-3.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: I think these teams are a little bit different now.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Just a little bit. The model has Louisville minus 16.85.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Louisville minus 12.7. And again, that
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: spread was 13.5. It is 12.5 to 13 now. So
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of people all about Wake Forest as a dog.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: And I understand it. Jake Dickert, likable guy, is what
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: it is. Both of these teams inside the top 25
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: as far as current strength of schedule. Something to pay
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: attention to. Louisville's explosiveness. Lincoln kind holes, keen holes, however
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: you want to say it. Y'all can correct me in
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the comments. I know, Louisville fans, I know what's going on.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: But if you look at this, Louisville number 22 in
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness, number 8 in passing explosiveness. They're pretty aggressive.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Their pace of play is number 65. So they're not
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: like the fastest team in the world, but they are
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: number 8 in net explosiveness, and they're number 1 in
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: the country in giveaways. They have not turned the football
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: over a single time yet. 5, or number 5 in
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Wake Forest is number 68 in turnover margin.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Number 7 in giveaways per game, but they generate 0 takeaways. Louisville,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: number 14 in takeaways per game. So, something to pay
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: attention to with Gio Lopez and company, just to see
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: what happens. Wake Forest's pass defense. Number 131 in success rate,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. They are Number 120 in QBR.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Number 110 in PPA allowed per pass. And Louisville is
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: awesome at this stuff. Number 8 in passing explosiveness. Number
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: 9 in PPA per pass. Number 9 in yards per attempt.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Number 13 in QBR. Now Wake Forest had to play
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: against Derry and Mensah. That's a little bit of a
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: different deal there. But Mensah basically showed you the blueprint.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: And Keen Holes I think can replicate that pretty well.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: I think Louisville's going to have some success running the football.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: Number 107 in offensive line yards, number 107 in stuff rate,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: so that's not good, but they are number 20 in
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: rushing success, number 22 in rushing explosiveness, number 18 in
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: yards per rush. Wake Forest is number 80 in yards
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush. On the other side, Louisville not great
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: on defense, but my God, they've played SMU and Ole Miss,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: so obviously the numbers are going to take a hit there.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest, pretty good throwing the football this year. Rob
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Eazell is their Offensive coordinator, I like their D.C., Scotty Hazleton,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: but the pass defense leaves a lot to be desired,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: at least thus far. Penalties per game, both of them
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: outside the top 120, so both have a lot, I mean,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: good gracious. Penalty yards per game for Louisville, number 134.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: For Wake, number 136. So both over 94 yards per
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: game in penalty yardage. You look at just overall talent rank. Louisville,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: number 26. Wake Forest, number 77. Dogs covered a lot
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: last week. I think a lot of people are trying
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: to jump on the dog trend. I don't think it's
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: great here. This Wake Forest offense going up against the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: Louisville defense as far as position units go. Wake Forest
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: number 103 offensive line, Louisville's defensive line number 7. Wake
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Forest number 103 in running backs, number 15 for Louisville's linebackers.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Louisville's back seven, number 21. Wake Forest, number 96. And
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: on the other side, it's kind of the same story.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: The issue is that Wake Forest's defensive line is supposed
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: to be pretty good. And they are pretty decent against
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: the run. Number 60 in rushing success allowed. Number 39
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: in rush rate. Number 32 in stuff rate, etc. But
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: broken plays, etc. Like Louisville, just way more athletes. Way
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: more athletes. Net explosiveness. Number 76 for Wake. Number 8
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: for Louisville. And these are the kind of games where
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Braum would typically fall back, not play well. They got
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: up big against SMU. They got a big win against SMU.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: That's kind of a letdown spot. But man, the difference
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: in athletes between these two schools, I think it's just
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: pretty Pretty wild. Again, number 26 on three overall talent rank.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Number 77 for Wake Forest. The model has Louisville minus 16.85.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: And yet, the market's going the opposite way. Jake Dickert
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: as a dog, 7-4 against the spread. Wake since 2024
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: as a 10-plus point road dog, 1-2 against the spread.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: I lean Louisville. I'm going with another favorite. Y'all know
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: I don't like taking favorites, but man, this is certainly
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: the kind of spot where I'm going to trust the
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Cardinals to get this thing done. Big time conference game.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: It's at home. It's early. I will take Louisville to
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: not make a bunch of mistakes. I think they win
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: this game going away. So the best number I can
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: get is 12.5. I will take it. Give me the
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Cardinals minus 12.5 at home. I will side with the model.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: I feel good about it. Back over to the Big
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: 12 we go. Oklahoma State at West Virginia. This one
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: at 6 p.m. Central Time in Morgantown on FS1. West
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Virginia right now is a 1.5 point favorite. I think
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: that's the only number you can get right now. Yeah,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: that's consensus across the board. Total is 58.5 to 59.5
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: depending on the board or depending on where you get it,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: which book. Oklahoma State opened as a 2.5 point favorite
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: not that long ago. And on Sunday, it was West
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Virginia minus 1.5, and it has stayed West Virginia minus 1.5.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense. Like, it flipped last night.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State opened as a favorite and has gone the
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: other direction. West Virginia beat No. 25 Virginia last week, 38-27.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State lost to Tulsa in Week 1 and then
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: turned around and upset No. 6 Oregon in Stillwater. But
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: now they've got to go to Morgantown. which is not
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: an easy place to play. The last meeting between these two,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: West Virginia won 38-14. This is Eric Morris' first year
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State. West Virginia, strength of record is number seven.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a lot of weight on that win
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: over Virginia. Of course, Virginia beat NC State to death
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: in week zero. But I think Bo Pribula was hurt
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: second half of that game. Either way, they did good
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: things against against Virginia's defense. So the offense looks pretty
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: good thus far. This Oklahoma State defense ain't bad. Number
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: 29 defensive success rate allowed. West Virginia number 62. The
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: difference here is rushing success. Oklahoma State number 44 in
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed. West Virginia only number 66 in rushing success.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: They run the ball over 75% of the time. That's
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: number five in the country in rush rate. They are
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: number 40 in yards per rush. Oklahoma State's defense, number 55.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: As far as offensive line yards, number 77 for West
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Virginia's offense, number 74 for Oklahoma State's defense. Stuff rate,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: West Virginia number 53 in stuff rate allowed. Oklahoma State
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: number 73 in stuff rate. Rushing explosiveness, Oklahoma State doesn't
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: allow big runs at all. Number 28 there, but West
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: Virginia doesn't exactly create them. They're number 82 in rushing explosiveness.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: Passing explosiveness. This looks like a service academy offense. Number
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: one in passing explosiveness. But they're number 135 in pass rate.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: They only throw the ball 23% of the time, roundabout.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Number 113 in QBR, so Michael Hawkins Jr. isn't exactly
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: doing crazy things throwing the football, but either way. On
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: the other side, this Oklahoma State offense, not looking great.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: They didn't do anything against Tulsa. Against Oregon, they were
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: really able to move the football. This is such a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: fun game. I mean, good gracious. West Virginia number seven
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: in first half point margin, so they get out to
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: quick starts. Number 123 in second half point margin. But again,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: it's only a three-game sample size, so there's not a
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: lot to play on here. Five factors plus strength of
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: schedule plus talent rank. Oklahoma State is number 43. West
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Virginia is number 49. Who can finish drives? Oklahoma State's offense,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: number 89 in points per scoring opportunity. West Virginia's defense
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: is number 40 on the other side. West Virginia's offense,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: number 41 in points per scoring opportunity. Oklahoma State, number 54.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: I think I kind of would trust Rich Rod to
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: be able to finish drives a little more, especially if
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: you look at this. Offensive red zone conversion percentage, number
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: 43 for West Virginia. number 106 for Oklahoma State. They're
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: number 122 in offensive red zone touchdown rate. It's not good.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: not good looking at overall defense West Virginia's defense is
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: worse than Oklahoma State's but their offense is better than
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's offense right now I I'm going to trust
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: the home field advantage of West Virginia. The model has
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: West Virginia minus 2.90. The power rating has this basically
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: a pick-em. It's got West Virginia minus 0.3. We've got
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: West Virginia minus 1.5 as the spread. I'm going to
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: go with another favorite. And this one, a home favorite.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: I like Morgantown a lot. I feel really good about Morgantown.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: What's our total? Our total is sitting at 58.5, 59.5.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: So it's starting to trend down a little bit. Interesting.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense. My projected total is 51.5.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: I would still expect some points between these two offensive coaches.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: Especially with the fact that the defenses aren't great. But
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's offense isn't exactly efficient. Give me West Virginia.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: Minus 1.5. I think this team is going to come
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: out guns blazing. This is a massive game. I know
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: they just had a big win, kind of a letdown spot.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: But playing at home at night, I'll take the Mountaineers.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Let's roll with it. Game number 23, you got to
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: get your streamers out for this one. This one's going
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: to be on Peacock, Notre Dame playing at Purdue. And
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: right now, Notre Dame is a 28.5 point favorite. There's 27.5s
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: out there with a total of 57.5 on this. It's
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: 1 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone. Again, only available
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: on Peacock. I don't like these streaming games. Either way,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: last week, Purdue lost 52-38 at UCLA. Late night, Saturday
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: night game out on the West Coast. Not ideal for
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: coming back and having to play against the number three
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: team in the country in Notre Dame. Notre Dame beat
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: Michigan State 27-10 last week. The last meeting between these
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: two teams was last year. 56-30, Notre Dame won. In 2024,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: it was a completely different ballgame. That was before Barry
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Odom got there. Notre Dame 66-7, and that Purdue team
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: had just quit. They had given up. The Notre Dame
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: defense is number one in PPA allowed per drive. They're
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: number 36 in current strength of schedule. Purdue number 44
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: in current strength of schedule. That is per Sagarin. Purdue's defense,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: let's take a look at that. Purdue's defense is atrocious.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, just awful. Number 135 in PPA allowed per drive.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Number 134 per play. Number 128 in defensive success rate allowed. However,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: their offense can sling the ball around a little bit.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: Their problem is that Notre Dame's defense is really good
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: at stopping the pass. I mean, they're really good against
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: the run, but I don't trust that Purdue is going
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: to run the ball a lot here. They do run
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: it over 44% of the time, but they're way better
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: at throwing it. Notre Dame is 19-9 against the spread
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: as a favorite. Since 2024. That's 28 games. That is
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: an incredible sample size. They are really good at it.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, 3-0 against the spread against Purdue in the
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: last three meetings. Purdue as a 21-plus point home dog.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: 1-3 against the spread since the start of 2024. It's
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: not great. The model has Notre Dame minus 31.2. pretty
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: wild to look at. There's not a lot of stuff
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: that you can find that's going to point you towards
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: Purdue on anything. Not a single position unit does Purdue
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: have an advantage. Not one. Five factors, anything. Maybe rushing explosiveness.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is number 131 in rushing explosiveness, but Purdue's
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: defense is number 124 or so. I mean, what are
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: we doing? Notre Dame number 116 in yards per rush,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: but they are number 32 in rushing success rate. You
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: got to learn how to read these stats. They're able
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: to move the ball. Like standard down PBA, standard down
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: success rate, they can stay ahead of the chains. Notre
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Dame is number seven in standard down success. Purdue is
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: number 118 in standard down success allowed. So Notre Dame
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: will be ahead of the chains basically all night. And
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: then you start looking at some of these other things.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: When Purdue is on offense, the things that they are
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: best at, like they're number 12 in PPA per pass. Well,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is number 10 in PPA allowed per pass.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Like overall team, Notre Dame is number four in PPA margin.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: Purdue is number 88. My power rating has this at
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame minus 24.4. But the model thinks these stats
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: mean more. And it's a full touchdown off of that, which...
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: Makes sense, because if my power rating is 24 and
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: my stats projected model is 31, well, yeah, the line
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: is right there in the middle. Minus 27.5, minus 28,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. I'm not going to overthink this. Notre
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: Dame covers as a favorite, typically. I feel good about this.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: I think they are going to put up a lot
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: of points. I don't think Purdue's offense, especially after that
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: West Coast road trip last week, is going to be
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: able to do a whole lot, even at home. I
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: think Notre Dame kind of how the dog walks these guys. So,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: best number I can get is 27.5. Give me the
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: fighting Irish. We're going with another favorite here. We're swapping
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: it up. Yeah, I know I like taking underdogs, but man,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not seeing it this week. So, give me Notre
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: Dame to cover as a 27.5 point road favorite. Back
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: to the Big Ten, and we got Big Noon Kick
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: on Fox, 11 a.m. Central Time, God's Time Zone, Ohio State.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini, and Illinois fans do not
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: like this new defense. Not in the slightest. Former Montana
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: coach Bobby Hawk. I think that's how you say it.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: Bobby Hawk. Y'all correct it for me. Y'all tell me.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: I didn't do a good enough job keeping up with
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: the Montana Grizzlies, but either way, he is the new
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, and Boy, these numbers don't look good. Number
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: 76 in defensive success allowed. That's against the number 115
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule in the country per staggering. Number
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: 112 in PPA allowed. Number 105 in PPA allowed per play.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: Number 95 against the pass, and that is not what
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: you want to be doing against Ohio State. Not in
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: the slightest. The spread right now, Ohio State 27.5 point
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: home favorite, total of 53.5. Ohio State beat Kent State
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: 59-3 last week. That's a week after they lost to
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: Texas 24-23 in that 21.4 quarter comeback. Just crazy. Illinois
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: lost 31-27 to Duke. But they are 2-1 on the season.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Looking at the spread records, Illinois 1-2 against the spread.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: And Ohio State is 3-0 because they were 1.5 point
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: dogs to Texas. And they only lost by one. That's
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: the way it goes. Jeremiah Smith, now the Ohio State
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: all-time receiving leader. The last meeting between these two was
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: last year in Champaign. 34-16, Ohio State won that. Ohio
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: State has won 10 straight in the series. Ohio State's
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: offensive line against let's see. Ohio State's offensive line is
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: number 1 and Illinois' defensive line is number 69. Ohio
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: State's Defensive line, number 6. Illinois' offensive line, number 38.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: There's not a single position unit on the field that
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: has an advantage for Illinois. Like, not one. Can't find it.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: Not on there. Ohio State, number 5 in overall talent rank. Illinois,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: number 44. Illinois does have an advantage as far as
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: special teams efficiency. Number 21 compared to Ohio State, number 74.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: Pace of play, always something to pay attention to with
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. They have significantly improved this year. Number 59
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: in plays per minute. Illinois number 77 in plays per minute.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: So they have slowed things down. Ohio State was like
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: in the 130s last year. It felt like they were
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: doing it on purpose to try and rest everybody, save
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: everybody up. But they're playing faster. They're scoring more points now.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: Their rushing offense is not great by any stretch, but
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: their passing offense is outrageous. Number two in QBR, number
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: seven in yards per attempt, number 26 in passing explosiveness.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: In Illinois' defense, in those metrics, number 80 in PPA
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: allowed per pass, number 76 in yards allowed per attempt,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: number 80 in QBR allowed, number 95 in passing success allowed,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: number 64 in passing explosiveness allowed. Ohio State, I think,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: will be able to do whatever they want to in
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: this game. Looking on the other side, the Illinois offense,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: Pretty good throwing the football. Number 26 in PPA per pass,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: number 25 in yards per attempt. The issue is that
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's defense is number 9 and number 2 in
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: those metrics. Illinois number 17 in QBR, so Caden Houser
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: is doing good things. Ohio State's defense is number 5
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: in QBR. This one, again, in the horseshoe. I don't
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: think Illinois is going to have a lot of success here. Just, yeah,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it. If you
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: look at the five factors plus strength of schedule plus
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: talent rank, once you factor everything in, then it's kind
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: of a close ballgame. Ohio State number 37, Illinois number 44,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: but talent differential is a huge difference. Ohio State, it
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: says they've played the number 140 current strength of schedule
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: per sacrament, but they played at Texas. I know that
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: the other two that they played were complete garbage, but still.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: And that's no offense to Kent State or Ball State.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: It's just, man, those two were, that's some really bad
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: football teams. Good gracious. Ohio State's weakness is third down conversions.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: Like on offense, they are number 103 in third down
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage. Illinois' defense, number 61 there. So maybe if
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: you can get some stops. The issue is that Ohio
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: State is number nine in standard down success rate. Illinois
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: is number 65 in standard down success allowed, so Ohio
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: State's going to stay ahead of the chains. Third down
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: attempts per game, Ohio State, all the way back at
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: number 116, they don't attempt a lot of third downs
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: because they stay ahead of the chain so much. So
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: if you never get to third down, you never have
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: to convert them. I mean, that's easy enough, right? Easy enough.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: On defense, as far as points per scoring opportunity, etc., Yeah.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a big difference here. I think as
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: far as being explosive, you got a big-time situation here.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is number 21 in net explosiveness. Illinois is
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: number 100. Looking at trends, Ohio State has a 21-plus
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: point home favorite, 8-4 against the spread since 2024. That's 67%. Now, Illinois,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: as a dog, 8-5 against the spread since 2024. That's 62%.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: That's 13-game sample size. So both of these are really good. But,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: you know, Illinois, they can move the ball. They're number
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: 11 in offensive success rate. But they're not explosive. And
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: do you think you're really just going to be able
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: to dink and dunk your way up the field in
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: Ohio State? I don't buy it. I don't buy it.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: The model has Ohio State minus 26. Power rating has
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: Ohio State minus 21.7. I don't think Illinois is going
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: to be able to score as easily here. And if
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: they can't score, I do think Ohio State's going to
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: be able to throw the ball and put up some
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy numbers. I'm going to go with another favorite. Again,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. Like this isn't, Watch
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: this end up being the week that everything just goes haywire.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: But I'll take Ohio State to cover at home. Minus 27.5.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going against the model. The model likes Illinois to
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: cover by just a little bit. But I've still got
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: a 27.5 out there. I'll take Ohio State. Anything under
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: four touchdowns, I feel pretty good about. Same thing with
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame here. This is the point in the season
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: where you start to kind of open up the bag
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: of tricks. I think Ohio State's going to score a
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: lot of points. Giving the Buckeyes minus 27.5. All right,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: the last game we're going to go over is an
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: ACC tilt. Virginia Tech going over to Boston College, and
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech is a road favorite. 14 points, total of 48.5 here.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: This was 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone. Another
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: one of those that was either ESPN, ESPN2, or ACC Network.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: My guess would be ACC Network, but I haven't looked
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: to confirm it. It's Monday night. We'll figure it out.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: I promise you it will be on TV. James Franklin's
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: first year at Virginia Tech, and things are looking pretty
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: good thus far. 3-0 already after they went 3-9 last year.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: They just won at Maryland 35-26 last week. Boston College
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: barely beat Maine last week, 22-16. They did have a
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: win over Rutgers. That looks a little bit better in hindsight.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two teams was in 2024.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech won it 42-21. VT has won three straight
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: in the series. And looking at some of the numbers,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: obviously you see my model here, Virginia Tech minus 19.37.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Virginia Tech minus 14.9. Strength of schedule,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: both of them are outside the top 90. BC is
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: number 90, Virginia Tech number 121. Virginia Tech's offense, number
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: three in PPA per drive. That's pretty crazy. Number 17
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate. Ethan Drunkemeyer, or Grunkemeyer, I hope
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: I said that right, Number three in passing success rate.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: So their offense has been awesome at throwing the football.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: Number 17 PPA per pass, number 14 yards per attempt,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: number 25 QBR, number three in passing success rate. In
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: all of those metrics, Boston College's defense is number 101, 81, 100, 107.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: Massive difference. The defense for Boston College is going to
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: have a very difficult time keeping up here. As far
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: as being able to finish drives, Virginia Tech number 13
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. BC's defense number 97 in
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. You go back to the
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: other side and you look at Virginia Tech's defense and
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: remember their defensive coordinator is Brent Pride, the guy that
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: was the head coach here before. He stayed on as
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator for James Franklin. He worked for him at
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Penn State. Stopping the run is Virginia Tech's Best deal,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: they're not great against the pass, but also Boston College
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: isn't great at throwing the football. They do throw it
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: almost 43% of the time, but you're not going to
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: want to run it against Virginia Tech because Virginia Tech
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: is number one in offensive line yards allowed, number one
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: in stuff rate allowed, number six in rushing success allowed,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: number six in yards per rush. Best overall efficiency metric,
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech number 19 in PPA allowed per rush. Boston
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: College's offense, number 119 in PPA per rush. Not good.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: The place that you can get Virginia Tech, they're number
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: 121 in passing success allowed, number 104 in passing explosiveness allowed,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: number 112 in yards allowed per attempt. BC is number 78,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: number 94, and number 79 in those. So they're not great,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: but that's where you can take advantage if you're going
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: to be able to stay in this ballgame. The talent
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: differential between these two is outrageous. Virginia Tech, 27% Boston
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: College number 81. And then you start looking at five factors, etc.,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: and it just all skews towards Virginia Tech. It's outrageous.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: And Virginia Tech gets out to fast starts. So if
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: you really like Virginia Tech, I really like their first
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: half line. But good gracious. This is pretty wild. Again,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: the model has it Virginia Tech minus 19.37. I can
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: get a 14 right now, just a flat 14. There's
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: no 14.5s, no 13.5s. I'm going to go with James
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: Franklin again. Franklin off of an ATS cover is only
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: 4-6 in the last 10 games. Granted, that was at
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: Penn State, and typically they were big, big, big numbers.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: O'Brien as a 7-plus point home dog, 3-2 since 2024.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: That's pretty crazy. That's pretty crazy. The fact that my
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: number is five over the market, I don't know how
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: much to trust that. I've not seen anything from Boston
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: College that would make me believe they can stay in
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: this game. I'm kind of surprised it's only 14. I
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: think it's going to move up as the week goes on,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: so I'm going to go ahead and take it here.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: I might make it an official play because I do
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: think that Virginia Tech... is feeling good about themselves. They
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: are rocking, and that offense is killer. Just killer. Ty
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: Howell is the offensive coordinator. Big things coming from him.
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: And he and James Franklin going up against Ted Roof. Yeah. Yeah,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of a coaching mismatch here. So
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: I think Virginia Tech has got good things on deck
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: for this season. I think they win this game going away.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: Give me the Hokies, minus $ 14 million. I will side
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: with the model. Don't forget the recaps will always be
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Five bucks a month, 50
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: bucks for the year. If you want to support the show,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: I certainly would appreciate that. A lot of favorites. A
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: lot of favorites in the next 15 this time. Y'all
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: know I don't like that. but it is what it
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: is so great numbers last week we did wonderful share
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: the show out tell your friends about it if you
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: would do me a favor like the video and subscribe
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: to the channel that helps things out and don't forget
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: about the WCE WCE CFB clips channel that's where I
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: put all of the individual game videos and And it's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: been doing pretty well. We're over 550 subscribers over there.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: Of course, the Winning Cures Everything channel is over 16,400
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: right now. So I'm feeling good about that. Don't forget
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: about the audio podcast as well. You can subscribe there.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: You can leave a nice five-star written review. That helps
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: out the show as well. And I do some audio-only podcasts.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: We do a reaction show every week. I try and
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: do like a Friday, just kind of, Tie everything together
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: with a nice little bow. Get an idea of how
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: the lines have moved and whatnot. Because I do record
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: these shows kind of early in the week. So, make
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: sure you are subscribed to the podcast. Subscribe to the
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: YouTube as well. Jump in the comments. Tell me how
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: crazy I am for taking so many damn favorites this week.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of it, but the numbers are
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: the numbers. You start looking at what these teams are
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: good at. There's some mismatches on the board this week. So,
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: we'll see what ends up happening. With that said... Let's
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: get out of here. This is another long one. Long video.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: Good gracious. Not going to be like this every week,
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: I promise. But I got my model sheets back, which,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: by the way, those are up at Buy Me a
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: Coffee as well. Just one more reason. One more reason
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: for you to dive in. It's for all the games,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: not just the 25. Anyway, take care of yourself. Take
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: care of each other. God bless college football. And hopefully
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: follow at GaryWCE on X, and check out the web stories.